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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go. We're throwing your job, spectator.

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Speaker 2: We're setting it to cash.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, but

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Speaker 3: they go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 4: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull,

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Speaker 3: and we are Honderway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your week

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Speaker 3: ten betting preview. I'm joined as always by my Action

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Speaker 3: Network colleague, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky.

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Speaker 4: What is going on? How is your week nine?

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Speaker 2: What's up? Brother? It was a beautiful week nine. Almost

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Speaker 2: everything went right except I think I finished nine and three.

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Speaker 2: The one thing that did go wrong, which really should

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Speaker 2: have hit was Dallas the money line. Could they just

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Speaker 2: buy a call in that fourth quarter? But Tomlin spot man,

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Speaker 2: that was a beautiful thing to watch, and yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: unfortunate that the Cowboys couldn't get home that plus seven

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Speaker 2: hundred money line. But no complaints for week nine. But

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Speaker 2: as always good or bad week, It's on to the next.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, and I actually have a story up at

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Speaker 3: actionnetwork dot com right now looking at the Steelers and

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Speaker 3: their offense because it's it's ugly, and you know, you

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Speaker 3: look at this team and this was the first Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl future I bet, and they are currently fifteenth in

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Speaker 3: offensive DVOA. They're sixteenth passing twenty second in the run.

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Speaker 3: You look at the since Pittsburgh won that Super Bowl,

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Speaker 3: I think it was eleven years ago. Now, the twenty

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Speaker 3: two teams that have made the Super Bowl since win

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Speaker 3: or lose, only two of them have been.

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Speaker 4: Below seventh in offensive DVAA.

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Speaker 3: So if the Steelers don't get it together by the

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Speaker 3: end of the year, they're not gonna beat the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: Like they're not gonna go through the Chiefs as good

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Speaker 3: as they've been playing.

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Speaker 4: So check it out.

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Speaker 3: So excited to talk about this one or some interesting games,

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Speaker 3: a good one in Buffalo, Buffalo, Arizona.

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Speaker 4: That should be fun. So let's get to it.

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Speaker 3: We'll start with the Thursday night preview, then we'll get

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Speaker 3: into the Sunday six pack, our top six spread bets.

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Speaker 3: But before we kick things.

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Speaker 4: Off, two very quick reminders.

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Speaker 3: Number one, if you plan to bet on the NFL

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Speaker 3: this season and haven't downloaded the free award winning Action

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Speaker 3: Network app, what are you doing? It's got betting tools,

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Speaker 3: analysis from myself, Stucky, the whole Action team, and it

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Speaker 3: lets you track every bet that you make. And number two,

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Speaker 3: if you want a chance at a free Vegas vacation,

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Speaker 3: don't forget to enter the Action Pods Tournament of Champions

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Speaker 3: presented by bet MGM. This is the tenth week of

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Speaker 3: spots in the Wildcard Weekend Grand Finale. You're still up

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Speaker 3: for grabs and there's nothing to lose. Just imagine yourself

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Speaker 3: on that free Vegas vacation. You're gambling, you're drinking. You

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Speaker 3: run into Nathan Peterman. He's panicking because he's trapped in

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Speaker 3: a casino breezeway. You show him that he's pushing on

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Speaker 3: a door labeled pull, and you release him back into

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Speaker 3: the wild. Anything is possible, So sign him now using

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Speaker 3: the link in this episode description.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's get into it, Stuck.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk some Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game

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Speaker 1: tonight that's BET Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 4: All right, Stuck.

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Speaker 3: So we got a pretty good, i would say, comparative

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Speaker 3: week Thursday night football game. The Indianapolis Colts going to

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Speaker 3: Tennessee Divisional matchup against the Titans. It's currently a one

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Speaker 3: point spread in favor of the Titans at Bett MVM,

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Speaker 3: the official odds provider of the podcast Stuck.

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Speaker 4: What are your thoughts on Colts Titans?

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Speaker 2: Look, it's a really interesting game. The first thing that

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Speaker 2: I'll bring up is the Titans have a number of

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Speaker 2: injuries that are worth monitoring, especially on the offensive line.

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Speaker 2: And you know, they already lost the Wan Dennis Kelly,

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Speaker 2: their back up. Their now tackle is Hurt Saffold has

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Speaker 2: banged up their guard, although he should play Tennessee. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: everything comes from the Russian Derrick Henry, But a couple

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Speaker 2: of things that I've been looking into. Derreck Henry just

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Speaker 2: doesn't have huge games against really good run defenses. And

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Speaker 2: you saw it this year. He had twenty one carries

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Speaker 2: a three yards per pop against the Bears. You know,

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Speaker 2: against the Steelers, he had twenty carries for seventy five

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Speaker 2: yards three point eight to pop And then I think

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Speaker 2: that's part of that is the offensive line and when

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Speaker 2: you're playing against a good run defense, and you can

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Speaker 2: you can keep him from getting to the hole and

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Speaker 2: getting to the open field where he's so dangerous, you

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Speaker 2: can really contain Henry and the Colts are capable of

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Speaker 2: doing that with Darius Leonard defar as Buckner has been

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Speaker 2: great up front, and the Colts have just been really

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Speaker 2: good on defense across the board. And you know, when

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Speaker 2: you look at these two teams that played last year,

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Speaker 2: the Colts won a very close game and they really

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Speaker 2: you know, the second time they played, they could have won.

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Speaker 2: They lost by fourteen, very very misleading box score. In

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Speaker 2: a seventeen to seventeen game, the Colts were kicking a

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Speaker 2: field goal in the second half to take a lead.

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Speaker 2: This is one of the games that minitary cost the

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Speaker 2: Colts and it was blocked. We turned for a touchdown

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Speaker 2: and then you know, the Titans added a meaningless touchdown

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Speaker 2: late to win by two scores. I think this game

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Speaker 2: ultimately really close. It's a great teaser piece. I personally,

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Speaker 2: you know, if you especially if can get a find

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Speaker 2: some one and a half or two's out there. I

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Speaker 2: personally teased it with the Bears on Monday Night. Rivers.

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Speaker 2: I've mentioned before he's the tease god as a dog.

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Speaker 2: He's seventy nine percent as a tease piece when you

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Speaker 2: tease him six points is any underdog price, any underdog price,

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Speaker 2: and now here if you can get them one and

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Speaker 2: f two, you're teasing through three and seven. Teasing through

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Speaker 2: three and seven hits historically around seventy five percent, which

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Speaker 2: is elite Rivers. That's seventy nine percent teasing any dog price.

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Speaker 2: It's just he's meant to be where he's gonna have

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Speaker 2: the ball late, down by one possession scrambling. He's also

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Speaker 2: very effective at going down the field against the pre

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Speaker 2: event defense if they're down two scores, so he can

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Speaker 2: get you in the back door. A lot. One thing

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Speaker 2: I will mention here that's just sticking out to me

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Speaker 2: like a sore thumb. So far this year that I've

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Speaker 2: been monitoring is road teams, road teams, and homefield advantage.

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Speaker 2: Road teams have won sixty seven of one hundred and

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Speaker 2: thirty four games this year, so they've won sixty seven

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Speaker 2: home teams have won sixty six and there's been one tie.

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Speaker 2: Road teams have also scored two more total points than

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Speaker 2: home teams. Road teams of seven catching seven points are

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Speaker 2: less are twenty seven and twenty seven. Straight up, they're

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Speaker 2: thirty six and eighteen against the spread. I mean Allo

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Speaker 2: points to basically, they're being almost no home field advantage

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Speaker 2: this year. I mean we thought coming into the year, okay,

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Speaker 2: where's home field going to be without fans? And home

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Speaker 2: field advantage anyway was coming down with each passing year.

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Speaker 2: I think that's we're seeing evidence of that. So I've

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Speaker 2: lowered my home field advantage again across the board, and

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Speaker 2: it just doesn't seem to mean that much. I think

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Speaker 2: the Colts can keep this close. It should be a

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Speaker 2: really tight game throughout. I think I make it. You know,

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Speaker 2: I have a half point difference between these teams, with

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Speaker 2: the Titans about a half point better. So I think

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Speaker 2: the line is pretty close to spot on. But once

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Speaker 2: you tease it and you can get through the three

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Speaker 2: and through the seven. The last thing I'll mention it's

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Speaker 2: already Dory Jackson doesn't look like he'll go even if

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Speaker 2: they have to activate them by today. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if they did out for the season without him, these

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Speaker 2: borders goes, it's just not the same without a Dori

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Speaker 2: Jackson on that defense. And you know, Clowning is probably

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Speaker 2: gonna play. He's banged up. He's just not the same guy.

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Speaker 2: They don't get too much pressure. So I think the

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Speaker 2: Colts could do enough on offense and that run defense

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Speaker 2: it can play. So I think that the Colts keep

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Speaker 2: this close.

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Speaker 3: Here I about the Titans. I am low on the Coats.

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Speaker 3: I've been lower on the Colts all year. I just

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Speaker 3: don't see them being able to score with Tennessee. I

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Speaker 3: don't see their defense like sticking up, you know, sticking

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Speaker 3: with Tennessee here.

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Speaker 4: Because you look at the.

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Speaker 3: Colts and okay, they played Gardner, Minshrew Cousins, Donald Foles, Mayfield, Burrough, Stafford,

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Speaker 3: and then you know lamar In like this kind of

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Speaker 3: struggle mode situation. He goes nineteen of twenty three, Minshew

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Speaker 3: goes nineteen of twenty Like this Coast team, it's like

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Speaker 3: everything good about them, there's something bad about it. It's

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Speaker 3: like the defense is supposed to be good, but they

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Speaker 3: sometimes give up these really you know, efficient passing games,

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Speaker 3: the run The O line is good, except they can't

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Speaker 3: stop rivers from throwing interceptions, and then they can't run block,

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Speaker 3: and then the running backs are good, but the best

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Speaker 3: one is fumbling all the time.

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Speaker 4: So it's like this team has so many ways to

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Speaker 4: lose games.

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Speaker 3: Tennessee like they're they're they're a frustrating team too. They

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Speaker 3: are banged up, so you know it probably could go

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Speaker 3: either way. But I just like Tennessee in these spots

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Speaker 3: where you know you're getting them against a team that's

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Speaker 3: kind of known for its defense. Ryan Tannehill has thrown

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Speaker 3: two or more touchdown passes in sixteen of eighteen regular

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Speaker 3: season starts as a Titan, eighteen of twenty one if

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Speaker 3: you count the postseason. So I also like the Tannehill prop,

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Speaker 3: which you're getting at really good odds this week to

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Speaker 3: go over one and a half touchdowns. You're getting you're

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Speaker 3: getting it at like minus one twenty one at bet MGM.

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Speaker 4: I think those are really great odds.

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Speaker 3: But the tight they're gonna score a couple of touchdowns

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Speaker 3: one way or another every week, and I just don't

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Speaker 3: know if we can say that about the Colts, So

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Speaker 3: I'm not buying the coach at all, they've lost a

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Speaker 3: few games as favorites that they should have won. So

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Speaker 3: hopefully they get under that nine and a half win total,

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Speaker 3: I bet, But just just not really a believer in

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Speaker 3: the coach at this point, and we're starting to see it,

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Speaker 3: you know, come out at times. You know, came out

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Speaker 3: last week that Philip Rivers. I mean, he's been good

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Speaker 3: against really bad teams, and the Titans are still bad

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Speaker 3: on defense. They didn't they did activated to everybody won't play,

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Speaker 3: so he can come back this year.

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Speaker 4: But I'm just not a.

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Speaker 3: Believer in the in the Colts. So I'm taking the

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Speaker 3: Titans at the at the short number.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but they play Devil's Advocate. I think. I think

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Speaker 2: the Colts have a much better defense, and the Titans

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Speaker 2: offensive line is just not It's just not the same

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Speaker 2: as it was last year, which I think is impacting

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Speaker 2: Derrek Kennedy against better rush defenses. But I mean, you

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Speaker 2: look at the Titans wins. They're one one impressive win

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Speaker 2: over the Bills at home, and there's a weird spot

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Speaker 2: on a Tuesday and a bad Josh Allen game. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they beat the Bronco by two, the Jags by three,

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Speaker 2: the Vikings. When the Vikings were awful by one, they

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Speaker 2: beat the Texans in overtime, and then they beat the Bears.

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Speaker 2: I mean, so the profile just hasn't really been that impressive.

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Speaker 2: Then the defense just continues to underwhelm me.

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Speaker 4: But who are the Cults beating the Jets?

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Speaker 3: The Vikings in Week two which was like kind of

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Speaker 3: a different Vikings team the Bears.

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Speaker 2: I'm just playing Devil's advocate. So, like the Volts profile

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Speaker 2: isn't great, neither is the Titans. That's all. I think

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Speaker 2: that these teams are pretty close.

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Speaker 3: No, I get it, here's a few team This will

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Speaker 3: kind of be a theme of the show. I think,

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Speaker 3: because there's a few teams that, now that we're ten weeks,

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Speaker 3: nine weeks into the season, you're kind of looking at

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Speaker 3: their resume and you're like, eh, but if this Thursday

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 3: Next up are three favorite bets of the week, each

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Speaker 3: in the Sunday six.

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Speaker 5: Bat Thursday for action, let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: All right, stuck, I believe you picked up what two

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Speaker 3: points on me last week?

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Speaker 2: So right now it is twenty six twenty one.

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Speaker 4: Up, carrying a weed to the midway point.

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Speaker 3: We'll see if I can make a comeback like last

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Speaker 3: season or dig myself deeper in a hole. I have

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Speaker 3: the first pick this week, and for the first pick

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Speaker 3: of the week ten Sunday six pack, I am going

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Speaker 3: with the San Francisco forty nine Ers plus nine and

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Speaker 3: a half at bet MGM, the official odds provider of

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Speaker 3: the podcast and listen. We hit on the Saints last

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Speaker 3: week top pick, hit on the under, but.

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Speaker 4: Now it's time to fade them.

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Speaker 3: You have the Niners coming off a brutal loss on

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Speaker 3: national television, but they're getting healthier. You're getting a lot

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Speaker 3: pretty much all of the receivers back deebo I. You

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Speaker 3: should be back only Kendrick Bourne, but with the emergence

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Speaker 3: of Richie James, you're still going to have three solid

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Speaker 3: wide receivers out there.

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Speaker 4: Jordan Reed will be a bigger.

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Speaker 3: Part of the game plan this week per Kyle Shanahan,

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Speaker 3: So the forty nineers still have some pieces on offense.

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Speaker 4: And Nick mollens is by.

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Speaker 3: No means a bad quarterback. He's one of the better

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Speaker 3: backups in the league, well over eight yards per attempt

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Speaker 3: for his career, so he can certainly stay in this

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Speaker 3: game and keep it close with New Orleans who's just

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Speaker 3: coming off a huge win. I think something like ninety

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Speaker 3: two percent of the money is on the Saints, and

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Speaker 3: yet they're still hanging this nine and a half. If

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Speaker 3: you're on the Niner side, You're essentially on the side

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Speaker 3: that the books need. I'm on that side this week

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Speaker 3: as well. I just think that this is a huge spread,

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Speaker 3: kind of an overreaction to both of these teams doing

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Speaker 3: the exact opposite in nationally televised games. The Niners were

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Speaker 3: down thirty four to three. I mean, even my girlfriend

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Speaker 3: came in at one point and was like, I've never

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Speaker 3: seen a football score this lopside. Like everyone and their

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Speaker 3: mom and knows. The forty Nineers got blown out by

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Speaker 3: the Packers and the Saints just straight up embarrassed the Bucks.

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Speaker 3: So now, so let down spot and Shanahan as a dog,

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Speaker 3: you expect him to rebound. He's thirteen and eight in

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Speaker 3: his career, sixty two percent as a road underdog.

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Speaker 4: As an underdog overall.

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Speaker 3: He's fifty seven and fifteen, and I expect that trend

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Speaker 3: to continue. Just too many points in this matchup that

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Speaker 3: remember they had this epic game last year, and I

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Speaker 3: think it could be a lot more competitive than he

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Speaker 3: would probably think if they just watch those two Island games.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I bought this to ten as well.

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Speaker 2: It's just a great bilosaw I spot after what everyone

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Speaker 2: saw last week. It's why I think the market is

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Speaker 2: a little too high on the Saints and a little

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Speaker 2: too low in the forty nine ers. I think this

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Speaker 2: one should be closer to a touchdown, give or take,

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Speaker 2: depending on which pieces for the forty nine ers come back.

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Speaker 2: They should be healthier on offense. They also should be

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Speaker 2: healthier on defense. They could get Richard Sherman back as well.

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Speaker 2: Who's practicing. He tweeted out, I'm almost back. It's iffy

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Speaker 2: because they do have a buy next week, so you

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Speaker 2: might hold him back. But then again, it's like they're

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Speaker 2: four and five. You know, you need to win this

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Speaker 2: game for your playoff chances, so he might give it

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Speaker 2: a go and just like you know, look, Drew Brees

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Speaker 2: has looked a little better throwing downfield recently over the

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Speaker 2: past few weeks, but it's still not the strength of

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Speaker 2: the Saints' offense. This is still a short passing attack.

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Speaker 2: That's what the forty nine ers do so well. They've

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Speaker 2: been very vulnerable against deep passing. They've been one of

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Speaker 2: the worst defenses in the NFL, and that's because some

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Speaker 2: of the I mean tart just their safety just hit

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Speaker 2: the ir you know, they've they've had Sherman out. They've

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Speaker 2: had basically all their corners out, so they've been vulnerable

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Speaker 2: with some miscommunication on the back end, but they're still

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Speaker 2: very good underneath, very good against running backs, and then

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Speaker 2: very good against the run as well. Fred warners just

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Speaker 2: Austin might be the best linebacker in the NFL. And

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Speaker 2: I think that this is a game where the forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers run defense, their linebackers will matter, So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think that they can. They can keep this close.

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Speaker 2: And it's a great by low Sell high spot in

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Speaker 2: a game where you have two Snails matching up two

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Speaker 2: very slow teams. So getting close to ten or if

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Speaker 2: you want to buy it to ten is I think good.

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Speaker 2: Look here, just great by low Cell high spot and

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Speaker 2: the overvalued line. So I completely agree. I would have

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Speaker 2: I would have taken the Niners if you didn't.

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Speaker 6: Believe that issue a superas Sad Briansisco cheat.

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Speaker 2: For my first pick and the second overall pick of

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Speaker 2: the Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Tampa Bay

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Speaker 2: Buccaneers minus five at Carolina. Look just like the Saints

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Speaker 2: selling high after what everyone saw. I'm buying low on

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Speaker 2: the Bucks and Brady here. It looks like Ali Marpett

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Speaker 2: will go. They're all pro guard. That's important because if

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Speaker 2: you can prevent pressure up the middle, Brady's gonna be

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Speaker 2: able to shred this zone as he did in Week two.

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Speaker 2: This is the most interesting part if you're into trends,

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Speaker 2: is this game you have two trend monsters going against

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Speaker 2: each other. Since two thousand and three, Tom Brady off

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Speaker 2: of the loss after a loss, thirty two and twelve

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Speaker 2: against the spread. That's seventy three percent, covering by an

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Speaker 2: average of almost six points per game, about forty five

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Speaker 2: percent ROI. Well, guess what, Teddy Bridgewater is thirty two

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Speaker 2: and eleven against the spread, almost the exact same record overall,

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Speaker 2: about seventy five percent, covering five about three and a

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Speaker 2: half points per game, forty six percent ROI. Brady has

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Speaker 2: an underdog or a favorite of seven or less after

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Speaker 2: a loss twenty four and three against the spread. What's

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Speaker 2: Bridgewater as an underdog twenty two and five against the spread?

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Speaker 2: I mean, no matter where you look these two quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: every trend says, so what gives? Well, we actually saw

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Speaker 2: this situation in Week two when the Bucks lost their

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Speaker 2: opener to the Saints and they played the Panthers the

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Speaker 2: next week and we're laying eight. They won by fourteen

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Speaker 2: in a game that they really could have won by

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Speaker 2: a lot more misleading score. McCaffrey's not going to go

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Speaker 2: for the Panthers. I maybe a half point that's worth.

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Speaker 2: We saw that Davis has been really effective in his absence.

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Speaker 2: But one of the things why the Bucks have had

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Speaker 2: so much success against the Panthers is since Todd Bowles

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Speaker 2: has taken over the Bucks defense, they've completely shut down

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Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey, and I expect them to do the same

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Speaker 2: against Davis.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 2: McCaffrey in three meetings against Todd Bowle over the last

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Speaker 2: two years, has fifty six carries for one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty seven yards, fifty six for one to twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: That's two point three average, ten catches for seventy one yards.

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00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,680
Speaker 2: He's touched the ball sixty six times and he hasn't

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Speaker 2: reached two hundred yards a touch, and that includes his

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Speaker 2: ten receptions. And that makes sense because the Bucks defense

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Speaker 2: is number one overall. You go even after last week

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Speaker 2: number three versus the rush, they're allowing a league low

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Speaker 2: three point three yards per rush, same as last year

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Speaker 2: when they led the league. So you know, their their

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Speaker 2: run defense is excellent. They're also number four against short passes,

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Speaker 2: number four defending running backs out of the backfield. So

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Speaker 2: it's all the things that you want to see when

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Speaker 2: you're playing this Panthers offense. Looks like Levonte David will go.

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Speaker 2: He along with Fred Warner. I mean, and you know

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Speaker 2: you could throw Bobby Wagner's still there as one of

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Speaker 2: the top linebackers in the NFL. By the way, players

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Speaker 2: in NFL history with one thousand tackles, twenty sacks, and

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Speaker 2: ten picks in their first eight seasons. Ray Lewis and

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Speaker 2: Levonte David.

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Speaker 4: That's it.

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay's one defensive weakness this year has been covering

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Speaker 2: tight ends. Not really the strength of the Panthers offense.

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Speaker 2: And I've been saying all, you know for the past

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Speaker 2: two weeks, this Panthers defense regression is coming. They you know,

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Speaker 2: they don't really get after the quarterback. I think their

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Speaker 2: secondary has been overperforming. So I think Brady should shred

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Speaker 2: this zone. He's gonna have time to throw. Looks like

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00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,880
Speaker 2: mart and David will both go, which is big. Okum

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Speaker 2: might be out on that left tackle and there's a

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Speaker 2: big drop off after that, so I think the Bucks

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00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 2: will be able to get pressure in a matchup of

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Speaker 2: these two trend monsters, Bridgewater always finds a way to

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Speaker 2: cover and Brady off of the loss, angry, bitter Brady

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Speaker 2: after maybe the worst game of his career. I'll take

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Speaker 2: the Bucks here in a game I'm make closer to

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Speaker 2: a touchdown, so I'll lay the five. I think the

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Speaker 2: Bucks come out very young. I also Moneyline part laid

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Speaker 2: them with the Ravens, so give me the Bucks man.

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Speaker 3: I mean, even I wasn't expecting the Bucks to get

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Speaker 3: slacked like they did on Sunday Night Football.

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Speaker 4: You know, it's obvious bounce back spot.

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Speaker 3: I'm kind of in the middle in terms, you know,

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Speaker 3: my model spit out a number, kind of that dead zone.

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Speaker 4: So I haven't bet this game, but you know, just kind.

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Speaker 3: Of more from a a gut feeld perspective, I do

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Speaker 3: feel like the Bucks are kind of gonna, you know,

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Speaker 3: kind of wet out of some anger because you you

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Speaker 3: have the same kind of narrative shape of it's really

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Speaker 3: the same situations week one and week two, Like you know,

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Speaker 3: arians kind of taking subtle shots at Tom Brady and everyone.

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Speaker 4: The defense has something to prove, the offense has something

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Speaker 4: to prove.

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Speaker 3: Did you get a chance to see that Dan Orlovski

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Speaker 3: rant on when he just went off on the Bucks

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Speaker 3: coaching staff, he was like, the last two game plans

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Speaker 3: on uh in primetime have been the worst two game

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Speaker 3: plans of his he's ever seen his life. I mean

434
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 3: I didn't even like, really wasn't thinking about the coaching staff.

435
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,639
Speaker 3: But you know when he kind of mentioned some you know,

436
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,639
Speaker 3: key points about they've just been doing silly things, and

437
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,719
Speaker 3: Marian's kind of alluded to it with you know, he's

438
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 3: saying like, hey, you know, we want to kind of

439
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 3: go back to uh, you know, getting Kronk on the

440
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 3: field and not having to throw the ball.

441
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 4: They ran about five times last week.

442
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 3: I mean, this is this is kind of a prove

443
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 3: it game for everyone involved. So the number probably, if

444
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 3: you're just straight up you know, spitting it into a computer,

445
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:22,359
Speaker 3: is probably not going to come out as big. But

446
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised at all if the if the

447
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:26,639
Speaker 3: Bucks put out a statement in here.

448
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, why is Brady so good off a loss? Like what,

449
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,679
Speaker 2: don't doesn't everyone know Brady's always put because Brady's just

450
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 2: he's great. I mean, he might not be the most

451
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 2: talented quarterback of all time, but he embodies greatness, which

452
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 2: means after a loss like that, the practice this week,

453
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 2: the extra time that they're going to put in, he

454
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 2: will demand perfection almost every single play and they won't

455
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 2: take a series off this upcoming week. So I know

456
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 2: it's narrative base, but you're you're gonna get angry Brady

457
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 2: coming out here in that offense against a defense that

458
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:03,239
Speaker 2: I've have his bottom five in the NFL, and so

459
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 2: I think he can shred the zone heavy defense with

460
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 2: all of his weapons. Now back, I'm assuming Goblin going

461
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 2: the other side. It's just a good matchup for the

462
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 2: Bucks defense.

463
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 4: Here's a narrative.

464
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 3: See how the Bucks just slept walk through his last

465
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 3: two primetime games. Brady goes to sleep at eight thirty pm,

466
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 3: Like he's usually not even awake when they're playing.

467
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,640
Speaker 4: Like the minute they did that against the Saints, I immediately.

468
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 3: Went to Google and I was like, what time does

469
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 3: Tom Brady go to bed? And sure enough, it's eight

470
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 3: thirty PM. He's always in bed in these type of games.

471
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 3: He's older. Now I would go to bed too, you know,

472
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 3: you know.

473
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 2: He runs out of energy.

474
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 5: Sandwiches.

475
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:40,400
Speaker 2: Sandwiches don't last.

476
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, So you know, if he's he's losing, he's probably

477
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 3: likely to lose in one of these primetime spots. And

478
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 3: then he comes back to next week and so one

479
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 3: PM start and he's up and refreshed and he's yeah,

480
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,640
Speaker 3: he's gonna get to it. So remind me to fade

481
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 3: the Bucks. I think it's the week after this. I

482
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 3: think they go to LA to play the Rams on

483
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 3: Monday Night. That'll prob be a faith spot for the

484
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 3: Bucks because I.

485
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 4: Haven't liked what I've seen out of them on primetime.

486
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 4: It's been a totally different team, like this has been a.

487
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 3: Best team, one of the best teams, like top three

488
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 3: teams at NFL in like the regular window, and one

489
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 3: of the worst teams in the NFL in primetime.

490
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,199
Speaker 4: They should have lost the Giants in that game too.

491
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,600
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509
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Speaker 3: Right, for the third pick of the week, ten Sunday

510
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 3: six pack, my second overall pick, I am going with

511
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 3: the Houston Texans plus three and a half at bed

512
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 3: MGM at the Cleveland Browns. And I spoke earlier about

513
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 3: how there are certain teams that I'm just not buying

514
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 3: into at this point in the season, and the Cleveland

515
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 3: Browns are another one. You know people are going to

516
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 3: be excited because they're getting Wyatt Teller back, which does

517
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 3: help the line a lot. I mean, you know, we

518
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 3: know Baker Mayfield needs all the help he can get.

519
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,160
Speaker 3: But in this matchup, I don't think pressure is gonna

520
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 3: come into play. But what I do think is going

521
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 3: to come into play is the fact that this Houston

522
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 3: team they're gonna get run on. The Browns are gonna run.

523
00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,040
Speaker 3: That's fine because running is not as important to winning

524
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 3: football games as passing, and I still think the Houston

525
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 3: Texans are. I mean, they are a much better passing team.

526
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 3: And it's kind of similar to the why I bet

527
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 3: the Raiders against the Browns, because there's usually two reasons

528
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 3: i'll bet the against the Browns.

529
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 4: It's either pressure and Baker Mayfield, which this is not

530
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 4: the case.

531
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:21,159
Speaker 3: US gets no pressure, or there's a team that I

532
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 3: just think can put can out straight up outscore them.

533
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 3: And I think Houston getting three and a half here

534
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 3: at bet MGM, make sure you shop around for the

535
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 3: best line because it's three out a lot of spots,

536
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 3: but that three and a half is worth it because

537
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 3: I think at worst they the Texans keep this close.

538
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 3: But I think They're a live dog. I think they

539
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 3: can absolutely win this game. You look at the Texans

540
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 3: versus Browns in terms of DVOA, and even though the

541
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,199
Speaker 3: Texans are sitting here at two and six, they're the

542
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 3: better team by DVOA, which remember is schedule adjusted. And

543
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 3: I think, you know, we kind of forgot, like, hey,

544
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 3: Houston played the brutal, slatest of games. They lost the

545
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 3: game they should have won to Tennessee, which makes, you know,

546
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 3: makes the record look even worse. Another quotes win in

547
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 3: Minnesota that you know could have gone either way with

548
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 3: that last second, you know, playing the end zone.

549
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 4: And then they you know, they play the Chiefs.

550
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 3: They play the Ravens, teams that are clearly better than them.

551
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 3: We look at the Browns and like, who have they played?

552
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,479
Speaker 3: You know, they beat the Bengals barely twice. You know,

553
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 3: Bengals backdoor cover on them in both spots. They beat

554
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 3: a Cowboys team that we now know was pretty horrible,

555
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 3: and they get blown.

556
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 4: Out by the Ravens. They beat the Coats because Philip

557
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 4: Rivers literally gives.

558
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 3: Them nine points and they win by nine. He gives

559
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 3: them a safety and a pick six. They win by nine,

560
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 3: and they lose by ten to the Raiders in a

561
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 3: game that everyone said favored them because there's you know,

562
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 3: it's it's windy, they're supposed to be able to run.

563
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 3: They score six points, they don't have Odell Beckham and

564
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 3: oh oh, and their other win is against the Washington

565
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 3: football team thirty four to twenty. Like this, this team

566
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 3: has beat nobody, and now we're giving them more than three.

567
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 4: Not just the three. We're giving them a we're giving

568
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 4: them the hook at home. I'm not buying it at all.

569
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 3: Wouldn't be surprised if the Texans win his game and

570
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 3: we're looking back feeling silly that you know, it's like, oh,

571
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson against Baker Mayfield.

572
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 4: Duh, Like yeah, sure, the Texans, they'll get up a

573
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 4: hundred seventy five yards on the ground. I don't doubt it.

574
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 3: That's the Browns emo. They do that every week. Just

575
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 3: don't think they're a good football team.

576
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 2: I forget to do this myself sometimes. But if you

577
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 2: look at like Cleveland, which is right off of a lake, Buffalo,

578
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 2: you know, Chicago, If you see like you know, Green Bay,

579
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 2: sometimes he's twenty since sometimes twenty mile an hour wins forecast,

580
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 2: which is I think they're twenty two here. The total

581
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 2: is gonna come down, So even if you don't even

582
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 2: like the under, you can try and middle it. I

583
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 2: think this totals opened to fifty five and a half

584
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: is down to forty eight and a half. That would

585
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 2: be one fear of mine that the wind does help

586
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 2: the Browns six.

587
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 3: Points against the Raiders, six points against the Raiders when

588
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 3: the wind should have been favoring them, and the Raiders

589
00:28:59,440 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 3: had no.

590
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,720
Speaker 4: Like, like, when are we gonna stop giving a Brown's excuses?

591
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 2: Blake, Yeah, I mean you did bring up Teller. I

592
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 2: mean they're averaging six point eight yards with Teller. Chub

593
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 2: might be back, which can't hurt. They're three point nine

594
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 2: when he's not there. They're averaging nine point two blown

595
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 2: block pressure rate without him five point five with him.

596
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 2: So you know, I Mayfield should play. I don't think

597
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 2: it's a huge upgrade for sim versus case Keenan. To

598
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 2: be honest, Houston can actually get some pressure and I

599
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 2: think they're like fourteenth fifteenth and adjusted zach rate, So

600
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,479
Speaker 2: can Watt get there and force Mayfield into a mistake.

601
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 2: They'll have Roby back, who didn't play last week as

602
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,479
Speaker 2: a disciplinary reasons, it is scary. You know, the Texans

603
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 2: run defense are twenty if he gainst the run thirty

604
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 2: first and adjusted lineyards like dead last and opportunity, like, yeah,

605
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 2: the Browns are gonna move the ball on the ground.

606
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 2: How much does the wind impact Watson? I don't know.

607
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 2: I mean I personally teased the Texans, so I don't

608
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 2: not disagree with you. I make the line around two

609
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 2: two and a half, So at three and a half

610
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 2: I probably would have taken when it was at two

611
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 2: and a half with Mayfield in Dow. It's at the

612
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 2: eight and a half. You're right, And you can look

613
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 2: at the Texans and they only have two wins over

614
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 2: the Jags, which.

615
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 4: Is yeah, well, I mean they resonates.

616
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, but they played. They started the season with the

617
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 2: with the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers, the three best teams

618
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,719
Speaker 2: in the AFC from a power ratings perspective, and then

619
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 2: you know they lost a couple of point flip games.

620
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 2: So I don't necessarily hate it.

621
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 3: I mean, the Texans are eighteenth and DBA the Browns

622
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 3: are twenty third. It's like this is not you know,

623
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 3: a major like ah, the Texans are this great team.

624
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 3: It's just I think the Browns are overrated and this

625
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 3: is just one of these kind of games between two

626
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 3: mediocre teams, and you talked about it. Homefield advantage is

627
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 3: not what it used to be, so like, I actually

628
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 3: have the Texans rated. I think like a couple of

629
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 3: decimal points better now with the Browns without Beckham, who

630
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 3: I still think is a big loss just because of

631
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 3: what he forces you to plan for. Like, it's not

632
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 3: just I know they don't pass a lot and so

633
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 3: maybe you know, it's not like to some people it's

634
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 3: like okay, they can you know, it's not a big

635
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 3: deal to receiver.

636
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 4: It's not many points to the spread.

637
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 3: But remember they are averaging something like eight point eight

638
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 3: yards per play on like runs, passes and targets to

639
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 3: by Beckham, and with a touchdown rate of.

640
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 4: Like double uh, you know on other non Beckham plays.

641
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 3: So like, I think it is going to be an

642
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 3: issue in it if Houston, like Deshaun Watson, is liable

643
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 3: to put up points against this defense for Cleveland has

644
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 3: not been good. You know, even they have some pieces,

645
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 3: but nineteenth and DVOA trending down. I mean, I don't know,

646
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 3: I just I just don't understand why Cleveland's getting love

647
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 3: in the market.

648
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: I mean, you're you're basically wrong with the better quarterback here,

649
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 2: which is not at the hood approach.

650
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 4: Tatua weeks.

651
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the fourth overall pick in

652
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 2: the Sunday six pack, I didn't love too many sides.

653
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 2: It was a big teaser week for me. You took

654
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, who I played. But so I'm

655
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 2: going for my second pick, I'm going with the Los

656
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 2: Angeles Chargers plus two and a half at bet MGM. Again,

657
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 2: a lot of these sides that I kind of liked.

658
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 2: They were sitting at two two and a half, I

659
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 2: made like closer to a pick, so I just tease

660
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 2: them if they get to three, you know, you can

661
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 2: buy this a three two pretty cheap. I would do that. Obviously,

662
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 2: three is that important. I would buy a three that

663
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 2: minus one twenty five or below. So wait on this.

664
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 2: But look, the Dolphins have been over the past two weeks.

665
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 2: One of my losses last week was the Cardinals in

666
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 2: a game that I'm just shocked that they lost. I mean,

667
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 2: if you look at the box score, the Dolphins had

668
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 2: three hunds and twelve yards averaged five point six yards

669
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,239
Speaker 2: per play. The Cardinals had four hundred and forty two

670
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 2: yards averaged six point nine yards per play. You know,

671
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 2: the Dolphins got a defensive touchdown, they had some beneficial

672
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 2: calls the week before with Tua. And by the way,

673
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 2: the Cardinals were down to like zero corners in that game.

674
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 2: You know they were playing with like backup corners who

675
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 2: got hurt. Horrendous what their corner situation was the week before.

676
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 2: Mentioned this last week the Dolphins beat the Rams twenty

677
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 2: eight to seventeen. Then one hundred and forty five total yards.

678
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 2: The Rams had four hundred and seventy one. The Dolphins

679
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 2: averaged three yards per play, the Rams over five. So

680
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 2: I mean, these last two weeks have just been insane.

681
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 2: This is luck versus unluck. This is the one of

682
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 2: the unluckiest teams in the NFL and the Chargers versus

683
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 2: one of the luckiest in the Dolphins. I still power

684
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 2: rate the Chargers above the Dolphins. Herbert's been great, and

685
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 2: look there are some things. Now. One of the things

686
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 2: you could say, and I actually agree with, is why

687
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 2: why have the Dolphins been lucky? Well, part of it

688
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 2: is just randomness, but why have the Chargers been unlucky

689
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 2: and losing all these close games? Part of its coaching,

690
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 2: Like I really like the the Dolphins staff, and I

691
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:12,399
Speaker 2: just don't really like Anthony Lynn in.

692
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 4: These it's actually Danthony Quinn Danthony.

693
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 2: I mean just some of the clock management to play

694
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 2: calling late last week. I mean, there's a reason that

695
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 2: for the Chargers are like been losing these close games

696
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 2: for the last couple of years. But there's some other

697
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 2: things that I do like about the Charges in this

698
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 2: particular matchup. Not only do I think they're a better

699
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 2: team than the Dolphins, and don't field doesn't really mean

700
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 2: much BOSA practice today, which could be huge because the

701
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 2: Miami tackles are awful. You have Austin Jackson and Robert

702
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,399
Speaker 2: Hunt who are just so inexperienced per PFF. They ranked

703
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:48,839
Speaker 2: seventieth and seventy second among seventy five qualified tackles this year.

704
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 2: I mean, these defensive ends for the Chargers should be

705
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:56,320
Speaker 2: in the backfield every single passing play. Keenan Allen should

706
00:34:56,440 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 2: absolutely eat in the slot. The Dolphins just I don't

707
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 2: have a slot corner. They've been trying multiple guys that

708
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 2: just aren't working out. Nick need him is there now.

709
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 2: It's just it's a bad situation. So keenan Allen will

710
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 2: probably take forty to forty five snaps in the slot

711
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 2: this week. He should have a day. And I just

712
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 2: think that the Charters are a better team here this

713
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,759
Speaker 2: Willy'll probably end up losing by one somehow, But I

714
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 2: make this game basically a coin flip, and so I'll

715
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 2: take the two and a half. I personally teased it.

716
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 2: I'm waiting to get some three. I will buy it

717
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 2: if it never gets there before the contest doesn't matter

718
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 2: for two and a half. For three, it's plus two

719
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 2: and a half here. The Dolphins luck, I mean, what

720
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 2: have they done last couple weeks. Has just been defensive touchdowns.

721
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 2: It's not sustainable. And this is a horrible run defense.

722
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 2: It's a terrible, terrible offensive line on the outside with

723
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 2: their tackles, which is not what you won against the Chargers.

724
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 2: So give me the Chargers as my second pick.

725
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think both of these teams are actually pretty good.

726
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 3: Like I think, I don't think the Dolphins are a

727
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,399
Speaker 3: terrible team. They're always going to be in game because

728
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 3: of Brian Flores. Uh, he's just doing a really kind

729
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 3: of remarkable job considering like this team is still in

730
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:11,760
Speaker 3: rebuild mode, but they're actually able to compete with anybody

731
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 3: really at this point.

732
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think they're good.

733
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 3: But the Chargers, it's just been absurd, like how they've

734
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 3: played extremely.

735
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 4: Well as well.

736
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 3: You know, they've they've been in games against the Saints,

737
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:26,439
Speaker 3: the who was at the Bucks. I mean, they could

738
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 3: have beaten pretty much the who's who, the Chiefs, they

739
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 3: could have beaten the who's who of NFL powerhouses more

740
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 3: or less in these last six.

741
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,479
Speaker 2: And two with like huge wins, and everyone would be like, Wow,

742
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 2: this team is unbelievable. So the perception difference here is huge. Also,

743
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 2: it's you have to keep in mind that the that

744
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 2: I still have to downgrade to it, like he did

745
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,879
Speaker 2: nothing against the Rams and last week against a decimated

746
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 2: Cardinals defense that had no secondary left. Yeah, he looked

747
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 2: pretty good, but now he won't have rest and Williams

748
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 2: so he looked like comfortable with uh who was just

749
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 2: put on ir that'll hurt their receiving corps. So yeah,

750
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 2: they're just the Chargers. Easily, they're they could they could

751
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 2: be easily six and two if they don't, so maybe

752
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 2: they're due to get one of these games to break.

753
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 2: But keep your keep your eye on both so he

754
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 2: will be big. And then Bulaga and and Turner their

755
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,879
Speaker 2: right guard and right tackle, which will be big because

756
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:28,240
Speaker 2: the Charger's offense line obviously isn't great. They both practice

757
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 2: on a limited basis today, so they also could be back.

758
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:30,919
Speaker 2: That will only help.

759
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, if if if the Chargers keep moving, if they

760
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 3: don't cover his bet, I could bet you almost anything

761
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 3: that it will come down to Anthony win because the

762
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 3: Chargers did the one thing that like everybody like that

763
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 3: knows offensive play calling and kind of knows the success

764
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 3: rates of these plays.

765
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 4: Frowns upon two goal.

766
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 3: Line fades at the end of the game and too

767
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:58,720
Speaker 3: to Donald Parham and uh well, I think Mike Williams

768
00:37:58,719 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 3: got one, but they were just trying to.

769
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:01,240
Speaker 4: Pick on.

770
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 3: Isaiah Johnson and they all smarter themselves because there's two

771
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 3: of the most inefficient plays. So, like the Chargers of

772
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 3: everything it takes to win, their defense has been a

773
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 3: little shaky.

774
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 4: I don't I don't know what's up with that. I mean,

775
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 4: I thought they would be better getting some pieces back.

776
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 3: Obviously, Bosa, you know, being being in and out of

777
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 3: the line of hurts. But the Chargers, I mean, they

778
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:22,839
Speaker 3: should be an NFL powerhouse already, justin Herbert should be

779
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 3: like just cruising through this like amazing rookie year where

780
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 3: he's leading his team to the playoffs. Instead, you know,

781
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 3: they're probably picking at the top of the draft again

782
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:32,359
Speaker 3: at this rate.

783
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 4: So very perplexing team.

784
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think this is kind of getting like

785
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 3: a Cowboys situation almost. It's like you gotta bet on

786
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,800
Speaker 3: the Charges so they cover, because like they should have

787
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 3: covered in what the last like five weeks and didn't,

788
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,399
Speaker 3: so just a ridiculous kind of situation. Or they covered

789
00:38:47,400 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 3: once against Jacksonville, but ridiculous kind of situation. So yeah,

790
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 3: And speaking of the Chargers, it is a perfect time

791
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 3: for this.

792
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 4: Week's coaches pep talk. So this week's pep talk.

793
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 3: I know you're gonna dedicate to the Chargers stuck. It's

794
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 3: from Philip Seymour Hoffman in the two thousand and seventh

795
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 3: film Before the Devil Knows You're Dead.

796
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got it. I mean I could dedicate to

797
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:22,400
Speaker 2: both these seats. It's not fair that the Dolphins have

798
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 2: won both these games last two weeks, getting completely dominated

799
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 2: it's also not fair that the Chargers keep losing all

800
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,280
Speaker 2: of these ridiculously close, unlucky games. So it's the perfect

801
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 2: clip for this game.

802
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 4: It's not fair. It's not fair.

803
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 2: Oh my life, Oh my life.

804
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 4: But it's not fair.

805
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,280
Speaker 7: You can't just say sorry and make it all go away.

806
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 2: It's too late.

807
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 5: It's not that easy.

808
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 4: It's not fair.

809
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 3: It's not fucking faird Anthony Quinn, I'm gonna keep calling

810
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:56,359
Speaker 3: you that till you cover.

811
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 4: Be on the lookout for it, all right.

812
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 3: For the fifth pick of the week ten Sunday six pack,

813
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 3: I'm going with those Arizona Cardinals one point favorites at bet.

814
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 4: MGM over the Buffalo Bills.

815
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:13,399
Speaker 3: Just another team Buffalo who I'm not completely sold on.

816
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 4: They got the win last week, burned me.

817
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 3: But how often is Russell Wilson going to turn over

818
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 3: the ball four times in a game?

819
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 4: It doesn't happen very often.

820
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:24,879
Speaker 3: Game before that, they beat the Patriots on a weight

821
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 3: fumble by Cam Newton. Patriots hang close with them, and

822
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 3: the game before that, they kind of stink it up

823
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:36,399
Speaker 3: against the Jets and win what eighteen to ten, so

824
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 3: and give the Jets their first cover of the year.

825
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 4: They're only no. They covered again, so they give the

826
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:41,879
Speaker 4: Jets their first cover of the year.

827
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:43,799
Speaker 3: This team is on a little bit of a win

828
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 3: streak here, the Cardinals coming off a loss one point favorite.

829
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 3: I actually have it closer to a field goal. I

830
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 3: have the Cardinals rated as the better team on a

831
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 3: neutral field by a couple of points. Listen, Buffalo, they're solid,

832
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 3: they're okay, but you're kind of you kind of have

833
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 3: similar teams here on the offensive side of the ball.

834
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 3: Two quarterbacks that can move, can throw it around the yard.

835
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 3: I trust Kyler Murray, who's been just playing out of

836
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 3: his mind. Had another big game against the Dolphins last

837
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 3: week against what was the number three defense in past DVOA,

838
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 3: which kind of goes under the radar, but you know,

839
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 3: just came down to the field goal kicker. If the

840
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 3: Cardinals win this game, probably win that game last week

841
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 3: against Miami. I think this line opens at a field

842
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 3: goal or if something goes different in that Buffalo game.

843
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:35,759
Speaker 3: So I like the Cardinals here. They are also It's

844
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 3: another case of you look at you know, where these

845
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 3: teams are rated in DVOA, and you might say, oh,

846
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 3: you know, the Buffalo is seven and two cards five

847
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 3: and three. You know, Buffalo is clearly the better team.

848
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 3: No Arizona number eleven, Buffalo number thirteen. They put Matt

849
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:54,839
Speaker 3: Mulano on injured reserve. They will get Norman back, which

850
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 3: will help, but the Cardinals will get healthier too on defense.

851
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 3: So I just think that shootout game going back to

852
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 3: the Cardinals as a as a one point favorite. I

853
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 3: make this line again closer to three. So I love

854
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 3: getting the point here at bet MGM. Shop around because

855
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 3: there are a bunch of twos out there as well.

856
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:15,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a great it's a great spot. I mean,

857
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 2: I I disagree on the power ratings. I have the

858
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 2: I have the bills better. I've been higher on the

859
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 2: bills than most all year. But it's just a terrible spot.

860
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 2: If they have that huge win over Seattley're coming across

861
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 2: the country. Smoke John Brown from pitt State Foky. People

862
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 2: know that he didn't practice today, that their offense is

863
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 2: so much more dynamic. He's been nursing in the injury.

864
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 2: I would expect him the play, but keep your eye

865
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 2: on that. Mitch Moore should come back from the Cushier protocol.

866
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 2: Trey White and Jerry Hughes didn't practice today. I don't

867
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,320
Speaker 2: think it's more for cause or anything, but they're probably

868
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 2: their two most important defensive players. But yeah, without Mulano,

869
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 2: I mean, the defense is just there's a lot of

870
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:53,359
Speaker 2: holes and you can run on this team, and that's

871
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 2: what the Cardinals do really well, especially with Kyler Murray's legs.

872
00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 2: So they're gonna be able to spread out the Bills

873
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:00,720
Speaker 2: here and they should be able to run on them.

874
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 2: On the other side, the Bill should be able to

875
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 2: move the ball as well. If I had to play

876
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 2: this game, I'll probably take the Cardinals, but I tease

877
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 2: the Bills. I teasse the Bills to eight eight and

878
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 2: a half. I think I think Josh Allen, if I

879
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 2: need him too late, we'll be able to get in

880
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 2: the back door. But I think this will be a

881
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 2: one possession game. If you put a gun to my hat,

882
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 2: I said that Cardinals win. So I don't disagree with

883
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 2: your pick, but you have to remember that I don't

884
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 2: know who gets a stop in this game. And this

885
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 2: over unders been keeps going up and up. I mean,

886
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 2: Patrick Peterson has been awful this year. And yes, how

887
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,439
Speaker 2: old he is thirty and a half about to turn

888
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:33,880
Speaker 2: thirty one those man a man corners fall off a cliff.

889
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 2: He's just not a shell of himself. And you know

890
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 2: they just signed Jonathan Joseph.

891
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's probably the worst thing that they

892
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 3: could have done like that. That's probably worth like a

893
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 3: point off. I should like the Cardinals spread right there.

894
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:48,280
Speaker 3: If he's playing, that would be bad.

895
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 2: Yeah. The only thing worse you could do is sign Hargreaves.

896
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 2: Oh oh god, yeah yeah, but he's still started for

897
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 2: the Texans. Yeah. But I mean they did activate Byron

898
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 2: Murphy and Cannard, who's like their best edge rusher. The

899
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:04,359
Speaker 2: Jones is out for the year from the IR list,

900
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 2: so that should help. But their corner groups just in

901
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 2: bad chicks. So I don't know who gets stops here.

902
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 2: I imagine that the Cardinals will be able to move

903
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 2: the ball, and same with the Bills, and hey, put

904
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,719
Speaker 2: a gun to my head. I think the Cardinals win,

905
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 2: but I do have the Bills of the tease. The

906
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:22,200
Speaker 2: one thing that could go wrong for you is my man,

907
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 2: Cliff Kingsbury, what are you doing?

908
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 3: Man?

909
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 2: It's fourth and one against one of the worst run

910
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 2: defenses in the NFL, the thirty. At the end of

911
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:30,439
Speaker 2: the game with two minutes to go and you're kicking

912
00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 2: a forty nine yard field goal with san Gunzals who

913
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 2: comes up short on a forty nine yarder? Unbelievable. It's

914
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 2: justin Justin Tucker and then no one else is reliable

915
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,400
Speaker 2: and kicking it. But what kind of play calls that?

916
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:45,759
Speaker 4: It was like, literally.

917
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 3: You talk about Luckford the Dolphins, I mean, this couldn't

918
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 3: have been a luckier situation than having him essentially give

919
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,880
Speaker 3: away the game after Howard Murray played like they played

920
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,719
Speaker 3: a brilliant game, considering like how like Miami gave them

921
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 3: everything and he still could have won that game. Yeah,

922
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,840
Speaker 3: Cliff is off his Like, I don't know what's up

923
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 3: with clipp But.

924
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 2: Well, it's fun It's funny that the teams are getting

925
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 2: so much smarter when to go for it on fourth down.

926
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,520
Speaker 2: And that's why, like part of the reason points are

927
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 2: up and points are you know, points per yard are

928
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 2: actually down so and that's because teams are going for

929
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 2: it on fourth down more so in that situation. But

930
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 2: where you see coaching and bias and fear is these

931
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:24,919
Speaker 2: situations at the end of the game where you don't

932
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 2: want to get questioned if you went for it and

933
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 2: you didn't get it, So you'd rather settle for the

934
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 2: field goal because if that's fourth and one of the

935
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 2: thirty with eight minutes to go, I bet the Cardinals

936
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 2: go for that ninety percent of the time. But now

937
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 2: there's two minutes left and it's all I don't want

938
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 2: to end the game by not getting it. No, you

939
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 2: go for that, I mean almost every time, especially since

940
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 2: your defense is no corners, like you're getting shredded. You

941
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 2: go for that and you try to score a touchdown

942
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 2: to win the game. Just crazy decision. So hopefully Cliff

943
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 2: doesn't doesn't ruin it for you. But I have the

944
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 2: Bills and the teas should be an entertaining game.

945
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:58,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, And the last thing I'll say about this game

946
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,320
Speaker 3: is I do think, you know, like you kind of

947
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 3: mentioned with the spot, I do think there's kind of

948
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 3: some public perception recency bias that play here because you

949
00:46:06,520 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 3: look at the Cardinals. They've scored thirty plus in each

950
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:14,360
Speaker 3: of their last four games, in six of eight overall,

951
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 3: they've been a.

952
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:16,480
Speaker 4: Powerhouse on offense.

953
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 3: Now the Bills, they've had some big games as well,

954
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 3: but prior to that Seahawks game where they put up

955
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 3: forty four, you know, twenty four against the Pats, eighteen

956
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 3: against the Jets, seventeen against the Chiefs, and just sixteen

957
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 3: against the Titans. It's maybe the most egregious of all.

958
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 3: I know it was a Tuesday, but I mean like

959
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 3: that was when Titans were in peak, like Carbo third download,

960
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 3: this team had been struggling. Seattle's defense is just Swiss cheese,

961
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:47,760
Speaker 3: Like everyone plays a shootout with Seattle. So the Bills

962
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 3: just I think, are a little bit more likely to

963
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 3: come back down to earth.

964
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 2: Here.

965
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 6: I hope you're enjoying this great Action network podcast. I

966
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 6: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

967
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 6: podcast network. Locked on as a daily podcast on your

968
00:46:58,560 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 6: favorite team.

969
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, forty nine ers.

970
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:02,400
Speaker 4: You are locked on of the Dallas.

971
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,279
Speaker 2: Marriage Everybody still Locked on Lakers podcast Let's Go.

972
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,520
Speaker 6: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

973
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:10,799
Speaker 6: know your team better than anyone and give you the

974
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 6: inside scoop. So go to your podcast apt and search

975
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 6: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

976
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,480
Speaker 2: For my third pick in the sixth and final one

977
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:29,319
Speaker 2: of the Sunday six Pack, slim pickens for me here,

978
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 2: but I'm going with the New York Football Giants plus

979
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 2: three and a half at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. Look,

980
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 2: I know the Eagles are getting healthier. I know they're

981
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:41,279
Speaker 2: coming off of a bye. And I've been low in

982
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 2: the Eagles all year. I don't think they're any good.

983
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 2: My biggest win total was their season win total under

984
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 2: nine and a half. Let's look at their profile this year.

985
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:52,880
Speaker 2: They have three wins, the Giants have two. And you

986
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 2: could say, yeah, the Giants have two wins over Washington,

987
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 2: that's the only two wins. If Evan Ingram catches a pass,

988
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 2: a wide open pass, the Giants have three wins and

989
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:03,280
Speaker 2: the Eagles have two wins. And the eagles two wins

990
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:07,399
Speaker 2: came against third and fourth string quarterbacks who finished the game.

991
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:10,720
Speaker 2: They beat Ben Denucci in a game where the Eagles

992
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 2: had two hundred and twenty two total yards and the

993
00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:16,839
Speaker 2: Cowboys had two hundred and sixty five yards. And they

994
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 2: beat the Niners in a game where CJ. Bethard finished

995
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:23,240
Speaker 2: that game and the Niners had four hundred and seventeen

996
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,799
Speaker 2: yards to the Eagles two hundred and sixty seven. And

997
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 2: so that that's they're basically they're only two wins they

998
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:31,400
Speaker 2: haven't beat a starting quarterback other than the Giants, and

999
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:33,719
Speaker 2: they had a comeback and win just because Evan Ingram

1000
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 2: dropped the wide open pass. The Giants, on the other hand,

1001
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,919
Speaker 2: are in every game. They're you know, not the most

1002
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 2: talented team in the world, but they're gonna fight. I mean,

1003
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 2: they've they've lost games by one, two, three, and four

1004
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 2: points this year, and they should have beat the Eagles,

1005
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 2: you know. So they just had one bad game where

1006
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 2: they weren't in it against San fran and that was it.

1007
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 2: So I think that what this will come down to,

1008
00:48:57,160 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 2: most likely is probably a couple turnover throws from either Wentz,

1009
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 2: who leads the NFL, and turnover where they throw. So

1010
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:08,719
Speaker 2: twenty three, think about how many Jones and thirty is

1011
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 2: only their twelve, which is like fifth or sixth in

1012
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:12,719
Speaker 2: the NFL. So Wentz has just been trying to do

1013
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:15,360
Speaker 2: too much. And I know, you know, some of his

1014
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:18,799
Speaker 2: weapons and his offensive line are getting healthier, but there's

1015
00:49:18,840 --> 00:49:22,680
Speaker 2: just some there's playing just way too recklessly. So I

1016
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 2: think this is a coin flip ish game. I make

1017
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 2: the Eagles just a slight favorite, so I'm getting over three.

1018
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:30,520
Speaker 2: I'll take the Giants in a game. Look the NFC East,

1019
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:34,319
Speaker 2: when these teams match up, take the points. I'm so

1020
00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:37,800
Speaker 2: I'm taking the New York Giants plus three and a half.

1021
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:41,399
Speaker 2: Wouldn't take them under three. Yeah, at three, But once

1022
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:43,959
Speaker 2: you give me the hook, I'm taking it. I'm taking

1023
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:44,279
Speaker 2: the bait.

1024
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 3: I'm surprised you actually took this one, just because you

1025
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:50,880
Speaker 3: do have the the trend monsters working against you. You

1026
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:53,759
Speaker 3: have the road favored off of by sixty four to

1027
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 3: thirty two at sixty eight percent and so three.

1028
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:58,520
Speaker 4: But you also have.

1029
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 3: The Daniel Jones at home two and eight against the

1030
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 3: spread in his career, So I mean, I guess you

1031
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:07,880
Speaker 3: could say it's kind of due for aggression.

1032
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 4: Like this one.

1033
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:10,799
Speaker 3: I bet the Eagles at three when the line first

1034
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 3: came out, I figured it would go to three and

1035
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 3: a half and I didn't want it there. But I

1036
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 3: don't know, I just have a bad feeling about the

1037
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:20,359
Speaker 3: Giants in this one. I mean, Daniel Jones doesn't turn

1038
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 3: the ball over, and I was on the Giants last week,

1039
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 3: but he didn't turn the ball over, and they go

1040
00:50:26,120 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 3: up big in the first half against Washington, and Alex

1041
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 3: Smith has to like come in and actually play real

1042
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:35,719
Speaker 3: professional football for what like a whole game, and he

1043
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 3: throws like three hundred and twenty five yards. The Giants

1044
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 3: win a turnover battle five nothing and they barely win

1045
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 3: the game. Like this, I'm just like they're gonna They're

1046
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:48,480
Speaker 3: gonna have a letdown at some point. Maybe it doesn't

1047
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 3: come this week because Wentz is Daniel Jones in a

1048
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 3: green uniform at this point.

1049
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:53,960
Speaker 4: But I don't know.

1050
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:56,560
Speaker 3: I have a bad feeling about the Giants and this

1051
00:50:56,640 --> 00:51:00,160
Speaker 3: one just because like they've been in every game but

1052
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 3: they haven't had that really brutal letdown yet. It's kind

1053
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 3: of like you said with Herbert, like I just feel

1054
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 3: like it's coming. But hopefully they wait another week or

1055
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 3: hopefully they win by exact week four, so I win

1056
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 3: this bet.

1057
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 2: But.

1058
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:15,400
Speaker 4: I don't know, Like I just the Giant.

1059
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 2: I don't love it. So I'll tell you that I guess.

1060
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's three and a half. I mean it's three

1061
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 4: and a half. You can't really go wrong.

1062
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 3: Like That's why I wanted the three when it first

1063
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:26,919
Speaker 3: came out, because I definitely wouldn't have met it at three

1064
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:29,760
Speaker 3: and a half. Also, for some reason, the Eagles always

1065
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:31,720
Speaker 3: go under a home and over on the road, Carson

1066
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 3: Wentz roade overs of forty seven and a half or less,

1067
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 3: or get this, twenty one and four in his career.

1068
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 4: It's absurd. It's absurd.

1069
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:44,400
Speaker 3: And then if you look at the stats at Lincoln Financial,

1070
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 3: it's like the exact opposite.

1071
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:47,640
Speaker 4: They go under at some ridiculous clips.

1072
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 3: So just putting that out there for anyone that maybe

1073
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:52,840
Speaker 3: just doesn't want to bet either side of this game.

1074
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:55,759
Speaker 3: But that wraps it up for the week number ten

1075
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 3: Sunday six pack. So the recap Stuck is going with

1076
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:03,799
Speaker 3: the Bucks, Chargers and Giants, and I am going with

1077
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers, Houston Texans and the Arizona Cardinals.

1078
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:14,240
Speaker 3: Now it's time for our favorite over underplay of the week.

1079
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,239
Speaker 2: I'll keep this short and sweet because I already talked

1080
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:20,800
Speaker 2: about it earlier. I'm going forty nine Ers Saints under

1081
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:23,960
Speaker 2: forty nine and a half at bet MGM. These are

1082
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 2: two snails, two slow paced teams. If you look at

1083
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:30,400
Speaker 2: situational neutral plays, they're both bottom five in the NFL.

1084
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 2: These are two teams that are great against the run,

1085
00:52:34,640 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 2: and I think both defenses match up fairly well. The

1086
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,560
Speaker 2: Saints defense was just due for so much regression which

1087
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 2: we saw last week when it came to penalties red zone.

1088
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 2: So I think this game you're gonna have a lot

1089
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 2: of third and longs with against these two run defenses.

1090
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 2: The forty nine ers are just gonna try and really

1091
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 2: grind this out. I don't think that they're gonna be

1092
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,400
Speaker 2: throwing a ton. I'm sure Shannon will come up with

1093
00:52:57,440 --> 00:53:01,120
Speaker 2: a good rushing game plan of attacks the should be speeding.

1094
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 2: So give me the under here between these two slow

1095
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 2: snails with good defenses that I think match up with

1096
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:14,360
Speaker 2: the other offenses, and two elite run defenses, and that

1097
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:17,560
Speaker 2: San France could have a really healthy secondary at corner

1098
00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:19,479
Speaker 2: for the first time in a while, which will obviously help.

1099
00:53:20,239 --> 00:53:22,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, attribute type game to two good coaches. You don't

1100
00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:25,359
Speaker 3: expect kind of all types of Shenanigan so and they

1101
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:28,120
Speaker 3: played this like really high scoring game last time, so yeah,

1102
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 3: I would actually do expect them to kind of keep

1103
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:34,839
Speaker 3: it tighter this time. For my total, I'm going Patriots

1104
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:37,640
Speaker 3: Ravens under forty three and a half.

1105
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 4: Same kind of deal here. You have two of the

1106
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 4: slower paced teams in the league. The Baltimore Ravens number

1107
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:48,399
Speaker 4: twenty seven in situation neutral pace according to Football Outsiders,

1108
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 4: and then you have the Patriots just a few spots

1109
00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 4: ahead of them at twenty third, So two teams in

1110
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:58,360
Speaker 4: the bottom third of the league in pace.

1111
00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:01,520
Speaker 3: And you also have I love is when even when

1112
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 3: these teams drop back to pass Newton Jackson, they're gonna

1113
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 3: scramble half the time, so you're gonna get some some

1114
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 3: quack continuing to move on even on some pass plays

1115
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 3: instead of some incompletions.

1116
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 4: Patriots defense should be getting a little bit healthier.

1117
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 3: Ravens still some issues on offense. Anytime you have to

1118
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:22,839
Speaker 3: sign Dez Bryant, you know you're having some issues. But

1119
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 3: of course they lose Ronnie Stanley a couple of weeks ago,

1120
00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:28,960
Speaker 3: which is a pretty big loss, not big enough to

1121
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 3: I think shift that Colts line last week that was

1122
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,920
Speaker 3: just going all crazy with the COVID news. But in

1123
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,759
Speaker 3: this spot, I think the better play than either side

1124
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:40,200
Speaker 3: in this game is to take the total.

1125
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:43,440
Speaker 2: I like this as well. You have two really slow,

1126
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:48,320
Speaker 2: run heavy teams. There's snails, the clock should be running.

1127
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 2: The Ravens defense is just playing at another level. Plays

1128
00:54:51,520 --> 00:54:53,799
Speaker 2: Camill probably won't play. LJ Fort should be back. Who's

1129
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 2: the lead against the run at linebacker position. But the

1130
00:54:57,719 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 2: Ravens defense number one dboa against the run, and now

1131
00:55:01,040 --> 00:55:03,759
Speaker 2: Marlon Humphrey's back, I don't see who Cam Newton. He's

1132
00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:05,760
Speaker 2: not gonna be able to throw to Jacoby Myers fifty

1133
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:08,239
Speaker 2: times again this week with Jimmy Smith, who's been a

1134
00:55:08,320 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 2: top five corner this year. Marlon Hupfrey, I think graades

1135
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:14,040
Speaker 2: out as a top ten corner. You have Marcus Peters.

1136
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:15,840
Speaker 2: You just have three shutdown corners. You can bring the

1137
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 2: safeties up, load the box, and take away this Patriots

1138
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 2: offense that I'm sure is going to go really slow,

1139
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:23,280
Speaker 2: try to grind the clock, try to keep the Ravens

1140
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 2: offense off the field. So I think that the Ravens

1141
00:55:26,120 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 2: will be able to run it against a bad Patriots

1142
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:30,960
Speaker 2: run defense. The Patriots trying to run it won't be

1143
00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:34,560
Speaker 2: able to against a really good Ravens run day. I

1144
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:37,120
Speaker 2: think that'll ultimately be the difference, which is why I

1145
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:39,520
Speaker 2: like the Ravens. I money line them. I think we'll

1146
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:41,360
Speaker 2: get to them in a teasers. Well, I'm online with

1147
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:42,919
Speaker 2: the Bucks, but I agree with you on the under.

1148
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:46,360
Speaker 2: This is should be a fast moving, run heavy game,

1149
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:48,120
Speaker 2: and I think it's going to be a major struggle

1150
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:50,640
Speaker 2: for the Patriots to both points on the board.

1151
00:55:51,239 --> 00:55:53,640
Speaker 3: I mean, the Patriots are are just horrible. We're not

1152
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 3: even talking about the fact that they barely beat the

1153
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 3: New York Jets. It's kind of the first time you

1154
00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 3: can say that about anything this year.

1155
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:04,520
Speaker 2: So it's like a bottom five roster talent knows it.

1156
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:05,680
Speaker 4: Belchick knows it.

1157
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 3: If anyone doesn't know, it's just because you're thinking of

1158
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:10,839
Speaker 3: this team as you know what you had in your

1159
00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:14,560
Speaker 3: perception with a whole different quarterback and frankly a whole

1160
00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 3: different roster.

1161
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:19,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, Bill Belchick automatic against the spread after loss,

1162
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:23,960
Speaker 2: and he's just he's like, oh and for his last five.

1163
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 2: That's how you know it's not your normal Patriots team.

1164
00:56:27,640 --> 00:56:29,839
Speaker 3: I mean, the fact that their defense is worse than

1165
00:56:29,880 --> 00:56:32,440
Speaker 3: their offense in DVA is all you need to know.

1166
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:35,960
Speaker 3: Because Cam Newton, Cam Newton, how many touchdown pass he had,

1167
00:56:35,960 --> 00:56:38,000
Speaker 3: he still got still stuck on two right, like two

1168
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 3: or three. He's got like seven interceptions. I mean, if

1169
00:56:41,480 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 3: he like they're gonna run him into the ground, it's

1170
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:44,360
Speaker 3: gonna be last year of his career.

1171
00:56:44,520 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 4: It's it's just I.

1172
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:50,120
Speaker 2: Do think I actually do think Cam Newton can be

1173
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:52,759
Speaker 2: elite with this offense as long as they alter the

1174
00:56:52,800 --> 00:56:54,479
Speaker 2: schedule and play the Seahawks every week.

1175
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:57,520
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, Oh my god, I think I said that.

1176
00:56:57,640 --> 00:56:59,759
Speaker 3: The minute that game was over, I was like, I

1177
00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 3: don't think we are ever going to see Cam Newton

1178
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:04,840
Speaker 3: throw for that many yards again in his entire career.

1179
00:57:05,080 --> 00:57:06,520
Speaker 4: Why I'm fading the Bills this week?

1180
00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 3: I mean, everyone just throws for yards against the Seahawks,

1181
00:57:10,360 --> 00:57:13,480
Speaker 3: but maybe not everyone. Actually, no, Jared Gof's gonna go

1182
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:15,280
Speaker 3: like crazy, But we'll talk about that in a second.

1183
00:57:16,080 --> 00:57:20,080
Speaker 3: That was our favorite total Stuck like the Niners Saints

1184
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:22,960
Speaker 3: under forty nine and a half and I'm going Ravens

1185
00:57:23,160 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 3: Patriots under forty three and a half.

1186
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:28,240
Speaker 4: Now it it's time for our weekly teaser segment.

1187
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:33,360
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1188
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 4: All right, Stuck.

1189
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:34,960
Speaker 3: I feel like this is like Christmas for you, because

1190
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:37,200
Speaker 3: I mean I looked at an app I saw about eight.

1191
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:39,360
Speaker 3: That's how you play about eight teasers already. It's not

1192
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:43,200
Speaker 3: even Tuesday when I first saw. So tell the people,

1193
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:45,600
Speaker 3: what what are you thinking for this week?

1194
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:47,960
Speaker 2: Yeah? I put a pizza, go check it out. Basically,

1195
00:57:48,000 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 2: you want to tease through three and seven, just known

1196
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 2: as a Wong teaser or you know, so you take

1197
00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:54,760
Speaker 2: a dog from two to two and a half up,

1198
00:57:55,160 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 2: or you know ed three, sometimes a favorite of seven

1199
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:00,560
Speaker 2: to eight and a half down. You cross that seven,

1200
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:03,320
Speaker 2: you cross that three. You have value over the books

1201
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:05,800
Speaker 2: as long as you're paying minus one twenty or lower

1202
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:08,320
Speaker 2: in a vacuum. Nothing else matters. You don't know, I

1203
00:58:08,360 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 2: have to know. The team's just over time that hits

1204
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:13,400
Speaker 2: at about seventy five seventy five and a half percent,

1205
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:15,720
Speaker 2: it's like twenty one, and they're like twenty one and

1206
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:19,240
Speaker 2: four this year. The lower the total, the more valuable

1207
00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:21,360
Speaker 2: it is. Obviously you're teasing six points in a lower

1208
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 2: total or points will be at a premium. So I did.

1209
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:25,600
Speaker 2: But this week it's just everything set up perfect. We

1210
00:58:25,640 --> 00:58:27,360
Speaker 2: have all these dogs that are like two two and

1211
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:29,760
Speaker 2: a half point underdogs that I made closer to a

1212
00:58:29,800 --> 00:58:33,720
Speaker 2: pick or one, so it's even more value there. Now

1213
00:58:33,720 --> 00:58:37,480
Speaker 2: some of them are higher totals, but Seahawks out. You know,

1214
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 2: I tease the Bills, I tease the Colts tomorrow night

1215
00:58:39,920 --> 00:58:41,680
Speaker 2: with the Bears. I think that those are my two

1216
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:45,080
Speaker 2: favor pieces, Colts and Bears I'll throw out a Sunday teaser.

1217
00:58:45,680 --> 00:58:48,800
Speaker 2: For just a Sunday teaser, I'll throw up the Chargers,

1218
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 2: who already mentioned should keep it within one possession, it's

1219
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:56,000
Speaker 2: what they do, and the Seahawks, who I think should

1220
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:58,720
Speaker 2: keep this within one score. It's a good bilo it

1221
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:01,360
Speaker 2: spot on the Seahawks. Now, if you look back at

1222
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 2: what the Rams have done to the Seahawks, and the

1223
00:59:03,600 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 2: Rems are coming off of by Dave outscored them in

1224
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:08,480
Speaker 2: the last three years, one hundred and seventy eight to

1225
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:10,520
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty seven. They've scored twenty eight or

1226
00:59:10,520 --> 00:59:13,360
Speaker 2: more points in five of those six matchups. They easily

1227
00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:15,360
Speaker 2: could have won all six. Their two losses came in

1228
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:19,720
Speaker 2: like last second place. So and why the Seahawks run

1229
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 2: a ton of Cover three and McVeigh has learned how

1230
00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:25,320
Speaker 2: to shred it. I mean just shred it. Absolutely, just

1231
00:59:26,280 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 2: crossing routes, play action, you know a lot of routes

1232
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 2: that stretched the defense horizontally, corner routes, flooding one side,

1233
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:36,200
Speaker 2: and I mean everything he does is just shreds this

1234
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:40,320
Speaker 2: Cover three defense. The Seahawks actually haven't been playing as

1235
00:59:40,440 --> 00:59:42,520
Speaker 2: much Cover three, which is smart because the league is

1236
00:59:42,560 --> 00:59:45,320
Speaker 2: figuring out to attack it as usual. They're mixing in

1237
00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 2: some more cover one and cover two. Their secondary is

1238
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:50,080
Speaker 2: just played so bad. But the way to attack them,

1239
00:59:50,080 --> 00:59:52,160
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just deep throws. You just can't cover

1240
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:56,240
Speaker 2: deep throws. It's been embarrassing. They're deep passing defense. That's

1241
00:59:56,240 --> 00:59:58,360
Speaker 2: not what the Rams do. The Rams can't really attack

1242
00:59:58,400 --> 01:00:01,760
Speaker 2: you deep. The Seahawks have actually a little respectable in

1243
01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:04,760
Speaker 2: short passing, which is what the Brams want to do.

1244
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:07,400
Speaker 2: And their run defense has actually been pretty good, and

1245
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:10,320
Speaker 2: that's the Rams want to set up everything with their

1246
01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 2: rushing attack. They and look the Seahawks. They add a

1247
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:15,760
Speaker 2: dun level which helped, but they might get they might

1248
01:00:15,800 --> 01:00:17,720
Speaker 2: add Snacks Harrison. I think it's gonna play who's an

1249
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:20,280
Speaker 2: elite run defender in the middle. That'll help their run

1250
01:00:20,320 --> 01:00:24,040
Speaker 2: defense as well. And the Rams defense. I think overall

1251
01:00:24,040 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 2: people are like, oh, this is this unit's so good.

1252
01:00:26,080 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 2: It's like, I think they're just the middle of the road.

1253
01:00:28,680 --> 01:00:31,880
Speaker 2: They got Ramsey and Donald and it's just Stars and

1254
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:34,640
Speaker 2: Scrubs defense. Who have the Rams beat this year? The

1255
01:00:34,760 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 2: NFC East and the Bears, like come on. So I'm

1256
01:00:37,760 --> 01:00:39,800
Speaker 2: not impressed with the Rams wins. I think that their

1257
01:00:39,840 --> 01:00:42,200
Speaker 2: some of their defensive metrics are way over inflated. They're

1258
01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:45,120
Speaker 2: bottom three in the league on first down pass defense.

1259
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:48,800
Speaker 2: The Seahawks are letting Russ cook this year, so I

1260
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:51,640
Speaker 2: think that Wilson will do his thing. At worst, he

1261
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:54,959
Speaker 2: keeps us within one possession. And this is a game

1262
01:00:55,080 --> 01:00:57,680
Speaker 2: where the Seahawks they have elite linebackers, and it looks

1263
01:00:57,680 --> 01:01:00,760
Speaker 2: like Rydill play Wagner's still lead where they're linebackers will

1264
01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:03,280
Speaker 2: matter in the run game, in the short passing according

1265
01:01:03,360 --> 01:01:06,760
Speaker 2: the tight ends. So give me Ross to keep this

1266
01:01:06,800 --> 01:01:07,760
Speaker 2: within one possession.

1267
01:01:08,240 --> 01:01:11,600
Speaker 4: And the Chargers, yeah, I like it, like both of those.

1268
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:14,240
Speaker 4: There's there's really a lot of choices this week.

1269
01:01:14,600 --> 01:01:19,440
Speaker 3: I'll save one of the teams I like for the

1270
01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:22,040
Speaker 3: next segment for our money line dog. So I'm gonna

1271
01:01:22,040 --> 01:01:26,200
Speaker 3: go with teasing the Ravens down to a point. I

1272
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:30,200
Speaker 3: think they beat the Patriots, but you know, I don't

1273
01:01:30,320 --> 01:01:34,680
Speaker 3: like to bet on favorites of a touchdown or more necessarily,

1274
01:01:34,720 --> 01:01:38,480
Speaker 3: so like the Ravens down to a point. And then

1275
01:01:38,880 --> 01:01:43,080
Speaker 3: for the other side, I'm gonna go with the Houston Texans.

1276
01:01:43,440 --> 01:01:46,200
Speaker 3: I like them to you know, put I like them

1277
01:01:46,240 --> 01:01:48,280
Speaker 3: to cover. I think they can win the game. There's

1278
01:01:48,280 --> 01:01:50,280
Speaker 3: another team I'm going to talk about for the money

1279
01:01:50,320 --> 01:01:54,000
Speaker 3: line dog. So going with the Texans here. You're getting

1280
01:01:54,000 --> 01:01:55,880
Speaker 3: it down from three and a half to nine and

1281
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:56,240
Speaker 3: a half.

1282
01:01:56,320 --> 01:01:58,400
Speaker 4: So like them as well.

1283
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:02,560
Speaker 3: So Texans and Ravens. All right, So that wraps it

1284
01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:04,960
Speaker 3: up for our teaser. Now it's time for our money

1285
01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 3: line underdog parlay.

1286
01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:15,480
Speaker 5: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1287
01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:16,960
Speaker 5: money line parlay.

1288
01:02:18,800 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 2: All right.

1289
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:22,439
Speaker 3: The Giants, they came through for me last week.

1290
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:22,800
Speaker 2: Stuck.

1291
01:02:23,280 --> 01:02:23,880
Speaker 4: What's going on?

1292
01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:26,040
Speaker 2: We both we both know we did it.

1293
01:02:26,200 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 4: We did it. It's been a while. Cash the parlay

1294
01:02:29,840 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 4: last week?

1295
01:02:30,560 --> 01:02:32,960
Speaker 2: Where are you going on the last three weeks we've had?

1296
01:02:33,040 --> 01:02:34,959
Speaker 2: Now we have wait wait did we get Yeah?

1297
01:02:35,080 --> 01:02:37,919
Speaker 3: I'm three weeks ago we had two. Oh shit, Okay,

1298
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:41,040
Speaker 3: I'm selling a short thing. My bad, But yeah, where

1299
01:02:41,080 --> 01:02:42,520
Speaker 3: are you going this week? Let's try to keep it going?

1300
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:45,880
Speaker 2: I was baby thinking about the Giants, which is I

1301
01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:48,720
Speaker 2: think more of a coin flip game. But I'll go

1302
01:02:48,760 --> 01:02:52,080
Speaker 2: with the Broncos here. I like what the Raiders have done.

1303
01:02:52,280 --> 01:02:56,080
Speaker 2: But the Broncos defense went healthy, has done a lot

1304
01:02:56,080 --> 01:02:58,400
Speaker 2: of good things this year and I Pryce Collien has

1305
01:02:58,400 --> 01:03:00,520
Speaker 2: been one of the best corners in the NFL playoffs,

1306
01:03:00,520 --> 01:03:02,600
Speaker 2: so he should be back this week. Aj Bu should

1307
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 2: be back this week. They might get They should get

1308
01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:07,920
Speaker 2: Shelby Harris back. No offense should come back. Broncos should

1309
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:10,360
Speaker 2: be a lot healthier. The Raiders defense stinks. It's one

1310
01:03:10,360 --> 01:03:12,520
Speaker 2: of it's one of the three or four worst defenses

1311
01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:16,080
Speaker 2: in the NFL. And what has Drew Locke been doing

1312
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:19,160
Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks. He's been shredding prevent defense

1313
01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:20,680
Speaker 2: at the end of the game. Well, that's basically what

1314
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:23,440
Speaker 2: the Raiders pre defense is. It's a prevent defense. They

1315
01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:25,120
Speaker 2: just sit back on zones the don't get a ton

1316
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:27,280
Speaker 2: of pressure. So I think Drew Locke can do some

1317
01:03:27,360 --> 01:03:31,920
Speaker 2: things here. And uh so I'll take the better defense

1318
01:03:32,800 --> 01:03:35,920
Speaker 2: in the Broncos to maybe force a few turnovers. And

1319
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:38,520
Speaker 2: uh I think it's worth a shot here. I'll go

1320
01:03:38,520 --> 01:03:39,400
Speaker 2: with the Broncos.

1321
01:03:39,720 --> 01:03:43,680
Speaker 3: You also got the better Crimson Tide receiver here. You

1322
01:03:43,800 --> 01:03:47,160
Speaker 3: got a Jerry Judy breaking out, breaking out here.

1323
01:03:47,760 --> 01:03:49,080
Speaker 4: I actually I like the Broncos too.

1324
01:03:49,120 --> 01:03:51,840
Speaker 3: That was that was one I considered for a number

1325
01:03:51,880 --> 01:03:53,880
Speaker 3: of different plays, and they actually didn't make it.

1326
01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:56,440
Speaker 4: In just waiting to make sure everyone's coming back healthy.

1327
01:03:56,440 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 3: But yeah, the guys are getting back. I think they're

1328
01:03:58,320 --> 01:04:02,320
Speaker 3: getting back. They're getting back a couple of linemen. I mean,

1329
01:04:03,160 --> 01:04:05,240
Speaker 3: it could be night and day difference from the team

1330
01:04:05,280 --> 01:04:07,320
Speaker 3: that was on the field of the last couple of weeks,

1331
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:09,400
Speaker 3: especially with all the receivers healthy.

1332
01:04:09,480 --> 01:04:11,600
Speaker 4: So Broncos are probably a team I'll.

1333
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:13,920
Speaker 3: Be playing at some point, But for this one, you

1334
01:04:14,040 --> 01:04:15,280
Speaker 3: kind of hit on all the points, so I'll be

1335
01:04:15,280 --> 01:04:19,240
Speaker 3: short the Seahawks. The Rams have had their number the

1336
01:04:19,240 --> 01:04:21,919
Speaker 3: past couple of years, but this is just a kind

1337
01:04:21,920 --> 01:04:25,240
Speaker 3: of different Seahawks team, and the Rams don't match up well.

1338
01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:26,560
Speaker 4: The Seahawks.

1339
01:04:26,920 --> 01:04:30,120
Speaker 3: The one strength, real strength on defense is they play

1340
01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:33,080
Speaker 3: good run defense, and the Rams are one of the

1341
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:36,400
Speaker 3: most luminous run teams in the league. And as you mentioned,

1342
01:04:36,520 --> 01:04:40,000
Speaker 3: they don't they try to avoid throwing deep at all costs.

1343
01:04:40,080 --> 01:04:42,840
Speaker 3: It's just not what they're, you know, trying to do,

1344
01:04:42,880 --> 01:04:44,360
Speaker 3: and not really what goss.

1345
01:04:44,240 --> 01:04:44,919
Speaker 4: Is capable of doing.

1346
01:04:44,920 --> 01:04:47,720
Speaker 3: But guess what Seattle Number twenty nine against the pass,

1347
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:50,280
Speaker 3: we the Rams are gonna pick up yards, but number

1348
01:04:50,360 --> 01:04:53,120
Speaker 3: nine against the run, they're going to force Golf to

1349
01:04:53,200 --> 01:04:56,280
Speaker 3: drop back more than he wants to. As you mentioned,

1350
01:04:56,520 --> 01:05:00,480
Speaker 3: the deep shots that you usually get against Seattle. Gof's

1351
01:05:00,520 --> 01:05:03,160
Speaker 3: not necessarily comfortable with that. So, you know, even though

1352
01:05:03,160 --> 01:05:05,200
Speaker 3: this terrible Seattle defense, and that's what the narrative is

1353
01:05:05,200 --> 01:05:09,480
Speaker 3: going to be after they got just shacked by Buffalo.

1354
01:05:11,160 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 4: The Bills make marijuana.

1355
01:05:14,320 --> 01:05:17,720
Speaker 3: This could be a golf turnover game again, even you know,

1356
01:05:17,800 --> 01:05:19,960
Speaker 3: coming off to buy it could be another one of

1357
01:05:19,960 --> 01:05:22,760
Speaker 3: those type of games. And you know, I don't know

1358
01:05:22,760 --> 01:05:26,160
Speaker 3: if people are expecting it. So like the Seahawks to

1359
01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:28,680
Speaker 3: win the game. I'm still one of the best teams

1360
01:05:28,680 --> 01:05:31,040
Speaker 3: in the league. They've had a couple of you know,

1361
01:05:31,080 --> 01:05:33,320
Speaker 3: bumps in a row, but again, how often is Russell

1362
01:05:33,360 --> 01:05:34,400
Speaker 3: Wilson gonna turn it over?

1363
01:05:34,440 --> 01:05:35,040
Speaker 4: Four times?

1364
01:05:35,240 --> 01:05:37,720
Speaker 3: When he doesn't, they can outscore anybody. And I totally

1365
01:05:37,720 --> 01:05:40,160
Speaker 3: agree with you about the Rams defense. Definitely a little

1366
01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:45,240
Speaker 3: bit overrated. So like the Seahawks money line, Doug.

1367
01:05:45,600 --> 01:05:47,880
Speaker 2: If there's a prop out there Jamal Adams causes a

1368
01:05:47,920 --> 01:05:50,760
Speaker 2: turnover either a pick or coming in on a sack

1369
01:05:50,800 --> 01:05:52,440
Speaker 2: on Jared Goff, I would bet that.

1370
01:05:52,880 --> 01:05:55,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I love that. I love that. I was gonna

1371
01:05:55,600 --> 01:05:57,920
Speaker 4: say I have I don't know where I got this from.

1372
01:05:57,960 --> 01:06:00,400
Speaker 3: It's just like kind of random, but I feel like

1373
01:06:00,480 --> 01:06:04,800
Speaker 3: DK Metcalf is going to stiff arm Jaywen Ramsey for

1374
01:06:04,840 --> 01:06:07,680
Speaker 3: the game winning touchdown and potentially get into a Golden

1375
01:06:07,720 --> 01:06:11,600
Speaker 3: Tate esque fight with him as the game like ends.

1376
01:06:11,680 --> 01:06:13,040
Speaker 4: So I don't know where I got that from.

1377
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:16,720
Speaker 2: I think it's a great versus Ramsey. I'm sure. I'm

1378
01:06:16,720 --> 01:06:19,080
Speaker 2: sure this is the Fantasy World all about Lockett this

1379
01:06:19,120 --> 01:06:19,960
Speaker 2: week as a result.

1380
01:06:20,360 --> 01:06:22,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, but we were kind of unlocked last week and

1381
01:06:22,160 --> 01:06:23,800
Speaker 4: it didn't quite work out. I think DK.

1382
01:06:23,640 --> 01:06:27,800
Speaker 3: Metcalf is just hashtag like really fucking good at this point.

1383
01:06:27,800 --> 01:06:28,480
Speaker 4: I don't think.

1384
01:06:28,320 --> 01:06:31,720
Speaker 3: Matchups mattered, Like you could be the best quarter and

1385
01:06:31,760 --> 01:06:33,640
Speaker 3: have the best technique in the week, but like this

1386
01:06:33,720 --> 01:06:35,960
Speaker 3: dude is just a freak, Like how are you like

1387
01:06:36,040 --> 01:06:36,760
Speaker 3: Jalen Ramsey.

1388
01:06:36,920 --> 01:06:39,280
Speaker 4: He'll win some, but I'm sure Metcalf will win win

1389
01:06:39,360 --> 01:06:39,840
Speaker 4: a for you too.

1390
01:06:40,280 --> 01:06:40,720
Speaker 2: All Right.

1391
01:06:40,760 --> 01:06:43,280
Speaker 3: So that does it for our money line dog the

1392
01:06:43,760 --> 01:06:47,400
Speaker 3: We got the Broncos, we got the Seahawks.

1393
01:06:47,880 --> 01:06:50,760
Speaker 4: Now it's time for our Survivor Pool pig of the week.

1394
01:06:51,680 --> 01:06:58,720
Speaker 5: One peg, one chance to advance Survivor.

1395
01:07:00,440 --> 01:07:02,600
Speaker 3: All right, stuck, Its time for our Survivor Pool pick

1396
01:07:02,640 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 3: of the week. If if you're still alive, congratuations, stuck

1397
01:07:06,720 --> 01:07:07,320
Speaker 3: who you're going with?

1398
01:07:07,680 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean my piece, my survivor piece and plan

1399
01:07:10,240 --> 01:07:12,880
Speaker 2: at all has been working except for the forty nine

1400
01:07:12,920 --> 01:07:15,920
Speaker 2: Ers losing to those damn Dolphins. A team and I

1401
01:07:15,920 --> 01:07:17,400
Speaker 2: have left right now that I planned to use with

1402
01:07:17,400 --> 01:07:20,320
Speaker 2: the Packers at home against the Jaguars four week ten.

1403
01:07:20,400 --> 01:07:21,360
Speaker 2: So that's what I'm going with.

1404
01:07:21,960 --> 01:07:24,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's the play here. Those are one of

1405
01:07:24,800 --> 01:07:27,200
Speaker 3: the teams I haven't used, So yeah, going with the

1406
01:07:27,280 --> 01:07:30,840
Speaker 3: pack thirteen and a half point favorites at bet MGM.

1407
01:07:31,040 --> 01:07:34,880
Speaker 3: But Lutan showed some things last week. But still expect

1408
01:07:34,880 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 3: the Packers to win a game either way. Aaron Jones

1409
01:07:36,640 --> 01:07:39,240
Speaker 3: would run wild on this Jaguars run dee.

1410
01:07:39,640 --> 01:07:41,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then you have Rogers going against the worst

1411
01:07:41,560 --> 01:07:44,080
Speaker 2: pass defense in the NFL. It's by the way, gyr

1412
01:07:44,120 --> 01:07:46,680
Speaker 2: exempt editor, keep your eye, keep your eye on whether

1413
01:07:46,720 --> 01:07:50,240
Speaker 2: or not he plays with a conclussion. He's been the

1414
01:07:50,280 --> 01:07:52,520
Speaker 2: best corner in the NFL this year. I think a

1415
01:07:52,560 --> 01:07:55,320
Speaker 2: top five corner in the NFL right now. Last four

1416
01:07:55,360 --> 01:08:00,640
Speaker 2: games against Ridley, Evans, Fuller, and Jefferson one cat total

1417
01:08:01,200 --> 01:08:05,080
Speaker 2: for twelve yards. Those fourd receivers combined. And by the way,

1418
01:08:05,240 --> 01:08:07,080
Speaker 2: you know you have Devanta Adams, who's arguably the best

1419
01:08:07,080 --> 01:08:10,480
Speaker 2: receiving the NFL right now. Devanta Adams and Jay R

1420
01:08:10,520 --> 01:08:13,520
Speaker 2: Alexander go against each other every day in practice, and

1421
01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:15,480
Speaker 2: you better believe it's only gonna make them even better

1422
01:08:15,520 --> 01:08:18,439
Speaker 2: as they practice practice against each other on a daily basis.

1423
01:08:18,600 --> 01:08:22,160
Speaker 2: But yeah, Packers should win. There's high wins here. Maybe

1424
01:08:22,160 --> 01:08:24,840
Speaker 2: that bothers Lutan shouldn't bother Rodgers that much. The line

1425
01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:27,200
Speaker 2: is about right, but Packers should win this game.

1426
01:08:27,479 --> 01:08:29,679
Speaker 3: Well, I think the Steeers offense better than they practice

1427
01:08:29,680 --> 01:08:33,200
Speaker 3: against the Steers defense every every day, and they're not good.

1428
01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:36,600
Speaker 3: All right. Now it's time quickly for the best of

1429
01:08:36,640 --> 01:08:39,760
Speaker 3: the rest the games we did not get to in

1430
01:08:39,840 --> 01:08:42,880
Speaker 3: any other segment. So this is gonna be quick because

1431
01:08:43,000 --> 01:08:46,599
Speaker 3: we don't have lines for these games. But the Detroit

1432
01:08:46,640 --> 01:08:50,280
Speaker 3: Lions and the Washington football team, we don't know what's

1433
01:08:50,320 --> 01:08:54,240
Speaker 3: going on with what do we have COVID and quarterback

1434
01:08:54,320 --> 01:08:55,240
Speaker 3: issues in this one?

1435
01:08:55,760 --> 01:08:59,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Stafford practice today, so maybe he's gonna go.

1436
01:08:59,760 --> 01:09:02,360
Speaker 2: If not, it's Chase Daniel. Stafford doesn't look great. Golladay

1437
01:09:02,439 --> 01:09:04,760
Speaker 2: I think is probably not gonna go. Keep an eye

1438
01:09:04,800 --> 01:09:06,760
Speaker 2: on that to the line's offense, obviously without Galladay is

1439
01:09:06,840 --> 01:09:08,640
Speaker 2: not the same man. Without Stafford, you're gonna get to

1440
01:09:08,680 --> 01:09:12,479
Speaker 2: Washington number one pass defense DVOA, and you if a

1441
01:09:12,479 --> 01:09:14,120
Speaker 2: lot of that is because, I mean, Fuller has been

1442
01:09:14,160 --> 01:09:16,679
Speaker 2: great and they have a great pass rush the defensive line,

1443
01:09:16,800 --> 01:09:20,080
Speaker 2: which obviously helps out their secondary Alex Smith for Washington,

1444
01:09:20,080 --> 01:09:21,760
Speaker 2: I don't know when this line opens up. If it's

1445
01:09:21,760 --> 01:09:24,920
Speaker 2: no Galladay, even if it's with Stafford and Alex Smith,

1446
01:09:25,600 --> 01:09:28,160
Speaker 2: this could be a good Underlook.

1447
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:31,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it was kind of weird seeing Alex

1448
01:09:31,120 --> 01:09:34,200
Speaker 3: Smith throw for all those yards, But yeah, I don't

1449
01:09:34,200 --> 01:09:37,519
Speaker 3: have really any confidence in that Washington offense outside of

1450
01:09:37,560 --> 01:09:41,800
Speaker 3: scary Terry. And then we have the Bengals and the Steelers,

1451
01:09:41,840 --> 01:09:45,519
Speaker 3: and of course Ben Roethlisberger goes on the COVID list.

1452
01:09:45,560 --> 01:09:48,440
Speaker 3: He could queer it, but he's also doing with a

1453
01:09:48,640 --> 01:09:49,400
Speaker 3: knee injury.

1454
01:09:49,560 --> 01:09:52,240
Speaker 4: So that's kind of the situation there. That game is

1455
01:09:52,280 --> 01:09:52,719
Speaker 4: off the board.

1456
01:09:52,760 --> 01:09:57,920
Speaker 3: I believe it was Bengals seven and a half last

1457
01:09:58,000 --> 01:10:00,559
Speaker 3: we look, but we'll see what happens. I doubt they

1458
01:10:00,560 --> 01:10:02,679
Speaker 3: open it before we get more concrete information there.

1459
01:10:03,240 --> 01:10:05,280
Speaker 2: Last week, I was screaming the fade the Steelers. Screams

1460
01:10:05,320 --> 01:10:07,120
Speaker 2: it all week and people are like, oh, you don't

1461
01:10:07,360 --> 01:10:08,920
Speaker 2: you just want to fade the Steeers because you don't

1462
01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:10,439
Speaker 2: like them. No, I mean I made the line ten.

1463
01:10:10,479 --> 01:10:13,160
Speaker 2: It was an awful Tomlin spot. But this week, I

1464
01:10:13,160 --> 01:10:15,120
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm low on the Bengals. Lower on the

1465
01:10:15,160 --> 01:10:17,880
Speaker 2: Bengals the most that happened all year. I think the

1466
01:10:17,960 --> 01:10:20,560
Speaker 2: Steelers are flaw on offense. We've did screaming about that

1467
01:10:20,600 --> 01:10:22,920
Speaker 2: early down success right, how Ben looks. The offensive line

1468
01:10:22,960 --> 01:10:25,400
Speaker 2: isn't as good, But I still make this line over seven.

1469
01:10:25,600 --> 01:10:28,519
Speaker 2: So uh now, if Ben doesn't play, it is a

1470
01:10:28,600 --> 01:10:30,639
Speaker 2: huge drop off. Even between this version of Ben and Mason.

1471
01:10:30,640 --> 01:10:32,599
Speaker 2: You're off just because Mason r off. It's so bad,

1472
01:10:33,080 --> 01:10:36,760
Speaker 2: so worth you know, a couple points. Yeah. The other

1473
01:10:36,840 --> 01:10:38,479
Speaker 2: thing you get to watch on the Bengal side mixing

1474
01:10:38,600 --> 01:10:42,519
Speaker 2: didn't practice and the Bengals offensive line, I mean what,

1475
01:10:42,600 --> 01:10:44,479
Speaker 2: they've been down five starters. They were done all five

1476
01:10:44,560 --> 01:10:47,599
Speaker 2: day one starters the last time they played. You have heart.

1477
01:10:47,880 --> 01:10:52,320
Speaker 2: Who is I think didn't practice? Jonah Williams is limited.

1478
01:10:52,760 --> 01:10:55,280
Speaker 2: It's just it's a mess. So that's something to keep

1479
01:10:55,280 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 2: an eye on. Obviously against the best defensive line in

1480
01:10:57,360 --> 01:11:00,960
Speaker 2: the NFL. Alou Is gonna is practicing their nose tackle.

1481
01:11:01,040 --> 01:11:04,120
Speaker 2: He's been great. So that defensive line, I know Berget's

1482
01:11:04,160 --> 01:11:06,360
Speaker 2: rid of the ball quick, and that could be a

1483
01:11:06,400 --> 01:11:10,679
Speaker 2: recipe for disaster. This is you know, if it's over seven,

1484
01:11:10,920 --> 01:11:13,200
Speaker 2: round seven and seven and a half and Ben plays,

1485
01:11:13,200 --> 01:11:16,680
Speaker 2: to stay away from me. If it's six five and

1486
01:11:16,680 --> 01:11:18,760
Speaker 2: a half and Rudolph plays again, it's a stay away

1487
01:11:18,760 --> 01:11:20,400
Speaker 2: from me. The only way I think I would play

1488
01:11:20,439 --> 01:11:22,840
Speaker 2: this game is if the Bengals were catching seven or

1489
01:11:22,880 --> 01:11:26,519
Speaker 2: more and I got Mason Rudolph. Maybe it's six, but

1490
01:11:26,520 --> 01:11:28,400
Speaker 2: definitely it's seven. But I make this line around eight

1491
01:11:28,439 --> 01:11:30,679
Speaker 2: and full at full health for the Steelers. But yeah,

1492
01:11:30,680 --> 01:11:32,760
Speaker 2: wait to wait to see what Ben. It's Saturday, we'll

1493
01:11:32,760 --> 01:11:33,200
Speaker 2: find out.

1494
01:11:33,520 --> 01:11:35,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually make it lower with Ben.

1495
01:11:35,320 --> 01:11:37,880
Speaker 3: I had it around seven with Ben, so I actually

1496
01:11:38,280 --> 01:11:41,200
Speaker 3: put a speculative bed in right when I, you know,

1497
01:11:41,640 --> 01:11:43,760
Speaker 3: found out that he was gonna like potential or go

1498
01:11:43,800 --> 01:11:45,840
Speaker 3: on the COVID list at seven and a half.

1499
01:11:46,360 --> 01:11:49,120
Speaker 4: You know I wish I did. That's yeah, more listen, it's.

1500
01:11:49,040 --> 01:11:50,599
Speaker 3: Not there's not a ton of value off because it's

1501
01:11:50,600 --> 01:11:52,879
Speaker 3: going to open wherever it opens, based on the information.

1502
01:11:52,920 --> 01:11:54,720
Speaker 3: You're not gonna get any value there. But I will

1503
01:11:54,760 --> 01:11:57,160
Speaker 3: say this, the Steeers are going to be vulnerable in

1504
01:11:57,680 --> 01:12:01,240
Speaker 3: situations where like if they're like bad luck, like if

1505
01:12:01,240 --> 01:12:03,639
Speaker 3: they go down to scores and it's like the cowt

1506
01:12:03,800 --> 01:12:07,439
Speaker 3: it's not Ben Garrett Gilbert in the Cowboys, like even

1507
01:12:07,479 --> 01:12:09,640
Speaker 3: the Bengals, like we you know, Joe Burrow, and they

1508
01:12:09,680 --> 01:12:12,080
Speaker 3: can pass, they can throw, you know, hang in there

1509
01:12:12,120 --> 01:12:13,559
Speaker 3: in a game. We've seen that again, you know they

1510
01:12:13,840 --> 01:12:15,439
Speaker 3: they hung in there with the Coast, They hung in

1511
01:12:15,439 --> 01:12:18,240
Speaker 3: there with the Browns. They beat the Titans, like this

1512
01:12:18,360 --> 01:12:20,479
Speaker 3: is not an INET team, even with some of their

1513
01:12:20,520 --> 01:12:24,840
Speaker 3: deficiencies on on offense. So the Steelers are gonna They're

1514
01:12:24,840 --> 01:12:26,680
Speaker 3: gonna probably catch a loss. Like they can definitely go

1515
01:12:26,760 --> 01:12:28,559
Speaker 3: undefeed it if they if they can beat the Ravens

1516
01:12:29,160 --> 01:12:33,560
Speaker 3: a second time, which easier said than done, but they could. Yeah,

1517
01:12:33,640 --> 01:12:35,719
Speaker 3: I mean I doubt it, but they could go undefeated

1518
01:12:35,800 --> 01:12:38,040
Speaker 3: if they do that. But I wouldn't be surprised to

1519
01:12:38,040 --> 01:12:40,439
Speaker 3: see the Steelers catch a loss to like someone we

1520
01:12:40,520 --> 01:12:43,960
Speaker 3: don't expect. So no problem catching more than a touchdown

1521
01:12:44,000 --> 01:12:47,240
Speaker 3: here with Borrow, but I doubt it opens back up

1522
01:12:47,280 --> 01:12:51,519
Speaker 3: if you know with at that number, unless you know,

1523
01:12:51,560 --> 01:12:54,000
Speaker 3: there's just a lot going on, So we'll see, but.

1524
01:12:54,920 --> 01:12:55,840
Speaker 4: That's gonna do it.

1525
01:12:56,040 --> 01:13:01,280
Speaker 3: For the Week number ten Action Network NFL Betting Podcast.

1526
01:13:01,280 --> 01:13:04,320
Speaker 3: You can follow Stucky on Twitter and in the Action

1527
01:13:04,439 --> 01:13:07,880
Speaker 3: Network app at Stucky two, and you can follow me

1528
01:13:07,920 --> 01:13:10,080
Speaker 3: at Chris Raybond. Be sure to check out all of

1529
01:13:10,120 --> 01:13:14,320
Speaker 3: our betting content at actionnetwork dot com, and of course

1530
01:13:14,360 --> 01:13:18,719
Speaker 3: tune into the channel for the college football podcast Stuck

1531
01:13:18,760 --> 01:13:22,000
Speaker 3: in Colin Wilson do the golf show, as well as

1532
01:13:22,400 --> 01:13:26,479
Speaker 3: our Fantasy Flex been lucking Week number ten.

1533
01:13:26,600 --> 01:13:29,240
Speaker 4: Let's get this money.

1534
01:13:29,280 --> 01:13:46,000
Speaker 8: You so we're finished talking