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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot Com, the radio plus mobile last and on your radio.

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow

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Speaker 1: US dot in next Future is higher this morning, Let's

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Speaker 1: go to the First Word Breaking news desk for today's

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Speaker 1: morning call, and here's Bill muloney. Good morning, Bill, Good

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Speaker 1: morning Karen. US features are maintaining their games since the

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Speaker 1: last time we spoke. The futures hired by a hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty two points says to best game twenty and

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Speaker 1: as a futures rise by fifty The US tennio at

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Speaker 1: one point nine and crude futures trade to the highest

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Speaker 1: level since December. Over night in Asia, Hong Kong rose

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Speaker 1: one point one percent and up markets are also rising,

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Speaker 1: led by four percent gains in Italy. On the economic

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Speaker 1: frinday at thirty u S Import Price Index and Canadian

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Speaker 1: unemployment data. After the bellis night, Ultra Salon beach shares

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Speaker 1: are hire by thirteen percent pre market and regarding airrings

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Speaker 1: this morning, Janesco, you're just ups view missed estimates and

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Speaker 1: hibit your ps VU trailed estimates. Finally, some of your

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Speaker 1: while she upgrades and downgrades. Trans Canada cut your neutral,

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Speaker 1: Red City Group, black Stone cut the whole versus by

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Speaker 1: a Deutsche Bank over at Goldman Sachs, and a darker

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Speaker 1: raised to buy. Chevron and Diamond off Shore both raised

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Speaker 1: to neutral. Finally, Semantic raised outperform over at r b

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Speaker 1: C Live from the first to Breaking News descom. Bill Maloney,

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Speaker 1: car all right, thanks bail to hear live breaking news

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Speaker 1: over your Bloomberg type squawk go on your terminal. That's

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Speaker 1: ask you a w K go and that's a Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: business flash, Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Savanas this morning brought you by Investco. Have you considered

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Speaker 1: at investco dot com slash alternatives. We've done druggy with

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Speaker 1: Julian Emmanuel of UBS. Let's try to figure out what

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Speaker 1: to do about it. Julian, what do I do about inflation?

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Speaker 1: Break even? What do I do about tips? What do

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Speaker 1: I do about investing to game a reversion to the

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Speaker 1: mean in inflation? Can I do that? With confidence? Uh? Well,

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Speaker 1: we think you can. We think we saw sort of

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Speaker 1: the panic bottom over the last several months in inflation expectations.

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Speaker 1: And I think what you really have to ask yourself, Tom,

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Speaker 1: is you know, what is this rally and gold all about.

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Speaker 1: Is it because of of an uncertainty hedge? Is it

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Speaker 1: because of a lack of faith in currencies? Or is

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Speaker 1: it because of the reason that over the last fourty

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Speaker 1: or fifty years has typically been the case in that

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Speaker 1: this low interest rate environment, maybe just maybe two or

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Speaker 1: three years down the road, is going to actually create inflation.

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Speaker 1: And we think that's sort of an untold story. And uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, the expectation is for gradually creeping higher inflation.

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Speaker 1: Do you invest? Do you invest on maybes? Though? Uh, well, look,

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Speaker 1: there's always an element of that in investing. And and

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Speaker 1: again part of this is the psychology, which as we

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Speaker 1: look at it has become very intensely negative. And we

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Speaker 1: we do one thing we don't know, and I think

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Speaker 1: the entire globe has to has to really get their

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Speaker 1: arms around the fact. But maybe of what the ultimate

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Speaker 1: effect of negative interest rates is is something that's an unknown.

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Speaker 1: But what we do know is that at some point,

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Speaker 1: if the FED is going to be successful, if Mario

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Speaker 1: Drogg is going to be successful. We are going to

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Speaker 1: have more inflation. Look, if you look at it, and

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Speaker 1: we've been waiting in a lot of people listening to

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Speaker 1: this program have been waiting and waiting and waiting for inflation.

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Speaker 1: All agrees, service sector inflation is elevated goods producing inflation

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Speaker 1: is not. How do you parse a two part economy

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Speaker 1: with your investment that believing that service sector inflation will

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Speaker 1: win the day? Now that that that's a very good question,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's part of the conundrum that people

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Speaker 1: are facing right now. Um. You know, typically in this

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Speaker 1: part of the cycle, when the set begins raising interest rates,

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Speaker 1: we we see the more cyclical sectors, the more cyclical indicators,

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Speaker 1: we see economic acceleration, We see inflation start to perk

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Speaker 1: up ever so slightly, particularly on the way front, which

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Speaker 1: is something we're seeing in fits and starts. Um. But

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Speaker 1: but it does raise this question, we're not convinced that

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Speaker 1: you wanted tilt cyclically yet. Uh. It's you know, the

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Speaker 1: the oil price rebound is very encouraging, but we don't

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Speaker 1: think we're in an environment where you're going to have

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Speaker 1: the level of economic activity that's going to justify Uh,

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Speaker 1: fifty and sixty dollar oil in two thousand and sixteen.

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Speaker 1: So so we think that some of the beaten up

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Speaker 1: growth names are active here. Um, the FED raises rates,

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Speaker 1: does that change things? Or is base points fifty base

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Speaker 1: points not a real change to your models? Well, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't change the models per se. But what it really

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Speaker 1: we think has the potential of doing is validating um,

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Speaker 1: the fact that everything else that we're seeing out of Europe,

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Speaker 1: out of China, the measures that are being taken are

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Speaker 1: ultimately going to be successful looking into two thousand and

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Speaker 1: seventeen as growth starts to normalize, and and that's the

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Speaker 1: potentially very positive signaling mechanism. Julian, Thank you so much, Julian,

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Speaker 1: Emmanuel ubs linking your investment and all that's applied into

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Speaker 1: what we've been doing with international economics today. Mike, Um,

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Speaker 1: it's always a quiet economic week. Let me get over

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Speaker 1: to the right screen here. Um, I mean import prices

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Speaker 1: in seven minutes, I guess I'm not thrilled. Tell me,

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Speaker 1: but retail sales coming up next week? Do we have

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Speaker 1: a clue? I mean, it's it's it's it's I see

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Speaker 1: negative statistics headline negative stats, uh, and that can be

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Speaker 1: certainly influenced by the fact that gasoline prices fell significantly

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Speaker 1: last month, but we shall see. Uh, you know, auto

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Speaker 1: sales weren't bad. And I was thunderstruck by Peter Hoo.

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Speaker 1: I has some point blank what's your year call? He's

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Speaker 1: sub two percent real g d P. Well, um, I

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Speaker 1: did not expect that. Yeah, um, well, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of people are a lot of uncertainty. Put it that way,

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Speaker 1: built into everyone's forecast right now. Maybe that's the theme

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Speaker 1: for the weekend as we begin. Get you get if

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Speaker 1: if if what D says works, what he did works,

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Speaker 1: then Europe picks up more demand for U S products.

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Speaker 1: The dollar is not higher, so American exports maybe go

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Speaker 1: who knows. I mean, there's a lot of factors that work. No.

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Speaker 1: I think you bring up an important thing besides euro parody.

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Speaker 1: And you heard Julian Emmanuel push against that euro one

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Speaker 1: E O E. The certitude of a weaker euro means

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Speaker 1: the certitude of a stronger dollar. And as Michael McKey mentions, folks,

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Speaker 1: that has not happened. D X ye point five three

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Speaker 1: is one of those indicators oil With a bit up

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Speaker 1: a dollar, you're really on the forty dollar watch for

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Speaker 1: American West Texas Intermedia right now thirty eight seventy seven

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Speaker 1: on West Texas Intermediate Michael McKee and Tom Keane. Next

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Speaker 1: a bit of economic data. It's Bloomberg Survamas. Time for

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