1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,599
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

2
00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,240
Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

3
00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,840
Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

4
00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:08,720
Speaker 2: the future of this show.

5
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:10,760
Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest

6
00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,280
Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

7
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:14,680
Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.

8
00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,080
Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

9
00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,599
Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

10
00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,800
Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free

11
00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,600
Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

12
00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,560
Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

13
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,920
Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

14
00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:35,360
Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. I have an

15
00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:36,760
Speaker 1: amazing show for everybody today. Who'll we be a.

16
00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:38,840
Speaker 3: Prystal massive, massive show today.

17
00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:43,120
Speaker 2: Trump admen caught lying about the number of American casualties,

18
00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:46,400
Speaker 2: something we and many others have suspected. Trump says that

19
00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,400
Speaker 2: we've won the war. Don't you guys feel amazing? Like

20
00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:50,640
Speaker 2: this thing is as all over?

21
00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:52,560
Speaker 3: He says, it's just a little excursion.

22
00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,319
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, oil prices are once again surging, even though there

23
00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,800
Speaker 2: was a massive release of reserves. More oil tankers, including

24
00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:02,440
Speaker 2: a US flag one have been struck by Iran, so

25
00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:04,880
Speaker 2: a lot to get into there. We've got two gigantic

26
00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:06,640
Speaker 2: guest Yiannis Farah Faucus is going to enjoy it, and

27
00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:08,440
Speaker 2: Robert Pape is going to join us to talk about

28
00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,000
Speaker 2: the escalation trap. Very excited to speak with both of them.

29
00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,399
Speaker 2: We've got some specific numbers about the amount of damage

30
00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,360
Speaker 2: being done inside of Israel, and we're going to take

31
00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:21,120
Speaker 2: a look at this allegation that Iran is planning to

32
00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,080
Speaker 2: drone strike California. See what we can make of what

33
00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:25,600
Speaker 2: is going on there, Sager, that's.

34
00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,320
Speaker 1: Right, d Thank you everybody who's been supporting our Showbreakingpoints

35
00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,400
Speaker 1: dot com. If you're able to today is our I

36
00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:32,399
Speaker 1: guess this week is the last week that we're going

37
00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:33,959
Speaker 1: to have our free month trial. Let's put it up

38
00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,920
Speaker 1: here on this screen. Only got to what Sunday till

39
00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:41,000
Speaker 1: Sunday today last called pe Free twenty six free month trial.

40
00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:42,720
Speaker 1: If you can't afford it, or if you don't want

41
00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:44,280
Speaker 1: to do it, since there's actually no cost to you

42
00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:46,840
Speaker 1: right now, no worries, please just hit subscribe to our

43
00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:49,600
Speaker 1: YouTube channel and if you're listening to this on a podcast,

44
00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:51,920
Speaker 1: we share an episode with a friend and rate it's

45
00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,320
Speaker 1: five stars. Really helps other people find the show. We've

46
00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,080
Speaker 1: had millions of new listeners and viewers. We've had tens

47
00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,560
Speaker 1: of thousands of people who have been coming in for

48
00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:01,880
Speaker 1: Are You two subscriptions, and then thousands of people joining

49
00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,480
Speaker 1: our premium program. So thank you and please join them

50
00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:06,680
Speaker 1: if you can, we really appreciate. But before we get

51
00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,080
Speaker 1: to any of that, we have Ryan Graham standing by

52
00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:09,920
Speaker 1: for a special art date.

53
00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,240
Speaker 2: So, as you guys probably know, Drop Site News has

54
00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,960
Speaker 2: been facing a lawsuit in the UK because of a

55
00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:19,480
Speaker 2: piece of reporting they did about BBC and their reporting

56
00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:23,200
Speaker 2: on Israel and Palestine. And Ryan has this very significant

57
00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:25,960
Speaker 2: update in this lawsuits and we just wanted to quickly

58
00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,519
Speaker 2: bring that to everybody. Ryan, first of all, great to

59
00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:30,400
Speaker 2: see you. Second of all, give us a breakdown of

60
00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:31,400
Speaker 2: what is going on here.

61
00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,720
Speaker 4: Wonderful to see you guys, especially under these circumstances. And

62
00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,799
Speaker 4: let me start with a massive thank you to all

63
00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,680
Speaker 4: of the viewers of this program and all the readers

64
00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:44,000
Speaker 4: of Drop Site News. I was looking it up the

65
00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:48,040
Speaker 4: other yesterday we got I think more than four thousand

66
00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:52,360
Speaker 4: people donating to our legal defense against this lawsuit from

67
00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:55,799
Speaker 4: this BBC editor, which raised more than two hundred and

68
00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,360
Speaker 4: fifty thousand dollars so that we could hire this like

69
00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:03,560
Speaker 4: team of of lawyers who has been fighting this defamation

70
00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,359
Speaker 4: claim that was brought against us. So we just got

71
00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:09,600
Speaker 4: a ruling this morning in the key it's we don't

72
00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:11,680
Speaker 4: even need to get into how complicated the UK libel

73
00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:15,360
Speaker 4: law is. A key decision came down which finds that

74
00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:19,480
Speaker 4: the article is quote kind of honest reporting and so

75
00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,560
Speaker 4: that we're able to use the honest or honest opinion,

76
00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:27,280
Speaker 4: the honest opinion defense, which is what which is what

77
00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:30,160
Speaker 4: you want in cases like this. So if anybody can

78
00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:32,680
Speaker 4: be found to hell to hold the honest opinion, then

79
00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:36,040
Speaker 4: we win. So I expect he's not gonna go forward

80
00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,120
Speaker 4: with this anymore, but if he does, we'll we'll see

81
00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:38,520
Speaker 4: him in court.

82
00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,400
Speaker 1: But thirty second, rewind Ryan, what was the case about?

83
00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:42,200
Speaker 1: What was the claim? For those?

84
00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,960
Speaker 4: This was a top editor at the BBC sued over

85
00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:50,600
Speaker 4: a story that Owen Jones, British journalist wrote for US

86
00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:54,640
Speaker 4: about the BBC's bias coverage. The ruling is pretty interesting.

87
00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:56,400
Speaker 4: I'll just read this part and then I know you

88
00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:58,400
Speaker 4: guys got to get to the show. So this is

89
00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:02,720
Speaker 4: from the court. The court found that this was the

90
00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,880
Speaker 4: statement of opinion that we put forward in the article.

91
00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:06,320
Speaker 1: Quote.

92
00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:10,480
Speaker 4: The claimant, in his senior editorial role and as a writer,

93
00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:14,440
Speaker 4: has consistently failed to meet the BBC's editorial standards of

94
00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:19,120
Speaker 4: impartiality and fairness by shaping coverage of the Israel Palestine

95
00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:23,400
Speaker 4: conflict so as to favor Israel, including by editing the

96
00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:26,839
Speaker 4: BBC's coverage in ways that one promote the Government of

97
00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:31,359
Speaker 4: Israel's narratives and two failed to humanize Palestinians killed or

98
00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:36,640
Speaker 4: injured in the conflict, thereby producing biased and imbalanced journalism unquote.

99
00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:41,200
Speaker 4: So that's from the court, which is describing the opinion

100
00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,880
Speaker 4: that is established in our article, that has put forward

101
00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:47,960
Speaker 4: in our article, which is a ten thousand word investigation

102
00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:51,280
Speaker 4: into the BBC, not just into this editor, but he's

103
00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,200
Speaker 4: the one that ended up suing. So as long as

104
00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:59,160
Speaker 4: any honest person can hold that opinion, then we win.

105
00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:01,640
Speaker 4: Any honest person I think.

106
00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,799
Speaker 1: Frankly, well, congratulations, congratulations Ryan, and thank you for reminding

107
00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,839
Speaker 1: us why we should never do business in the UK. Why,

108
00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:10,280
Speaker 1: good lord, good lord.

109
00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:14,000
Speaker 4: They didn't sue us directly, They only sued him because

110
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,240
Speaker 4: we're in the US, but we had told him when

111
00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,159
Speaker 4: he brought the story to us, if you get sued,

112
00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:18,840
Speaker 4: we'll have.

113
00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:21,240
Speaker 1: Your back on this, and you did so that's how

114
00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:21,920
Speaker 1: we got involved.

115
00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,840
Speaker 2: Anyway, he had thank you everybody that this could happen because.

116
00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,760
Speaker 4: He why you got to keep supporting independent journalism. If

117
00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:30,600
Speaker 4: it has the resources to fight back, it can do it.

118
00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:31,160
Speaker 1: That's right.

119
00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:34,360
Speaker 2: Well, congrats to you guys, Ryan, Congrats to Owen as well,

120
00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:37,040
Speaker 2: and you know, keep us updated on this. Very glad

121
00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:38,919
Speaker 2: to hear that this has gone the way that it

122
00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:40,159
Speaker 2: should go at this point.

123
00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:42,120
Speaker 1: Seriously, and just you know why you're here.

124
00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:42,400
Speaker 5: Ryan.

125
00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:45,039
Speaker 1: We should tell everybody this is why supporting YOURSHA or

126
00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:48,120
Speaker 1: your drop site, supporting Breaking Points is so important. If

127
00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:50,760
Speaker 1: you don't have resources, then when those lawyers come calling,

128
00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:52,400
Speaker 1: you are facing literal debts.

129
00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:54,719
Speaker 2: You can't do the story I mean to begin with,

130
00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:57,720
Speaker 2: because you know the possibility of the of the lawsuit,

131
00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:01,160
Speaker 2: and they use that threat to censor people from reporting

132
00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:01,800
Speaker 2: things that.

133
00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:02,680
Speaker 3: Need to be reported.

134
00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:04,640
Speaker 1: You guys have faced it. We've all faced it now

135
00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:06,960
Speaker 1: multiple times here at Breaking Points, and we're able to

136
00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,159
Speaker 1: use our size, our premius debscription and everything to just

137
00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,360
Speaker 1: tell everybody. Yeah, fuck you. You know, we'll see you later.

138
00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,560
Speaker 1: So great, Thank you very much. Ryan. We appreciate you, brother.

139
00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:15,640
Speaker 1: It it sounds crass.

140
00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,000
Speaker 4: You guys still have that that free month like people

141
00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:18,560
Speaker 4: should do it.

142
00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:23,720
Speaker 1: Yeah we did. Yeah, see Ry shameless than I a skipped.

143
00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:23,880
Speaker 4: The free months.

144
00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,240
Speaker 1: Just just pay the first month, come on, people. Yeah,

145
00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:28,440
Speaker 1: thank you, thank you Ryan. We appreciate you, man.

146
00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:28,960
Speaker 6: Guy.

147
00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:34,960
Speaker 1: Later turning now to a massive cover up in the

148
00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:39,039
Speaker 1: United States government, multiple casualties hidden from the United States

149
00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:42,200
Speaker 1: of America in that initial strike where multiple US service

150
00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:44,240
Speaker 1: members were killed. But before we even get to any

151
00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:48,479
Speaker 1: of that, Donald Trump on the campaign trail yesterday declaring victory.

152
00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,320
Speaker 1: One might even say mission accomplished in the war in Iran.

153
00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:53,400
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen. Is that a great dame.

154
00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:56,719
Speaker 6: Well, it's totally good if you win, you know, you

155
00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:58,560
Speaker 6: can only and we've won.

156
00:06:58,839 --> 00:06:59,880
Speaker 1: Let me tell it. We've won.

157
00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,040
Speaker 6: You know you'd never like to say too early you won.

158
00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:03,560
Speaker 6: We won.

159
00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:05,880
Speaker 1: We won the best in the first hour it was over.

160
00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:07,240
Speaker 1: Oh we won.

161
00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:09,920
Speaker 6: But they gave me a list of names that joff, sir,

162
00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,880
Speaker 6: you could pick the name you'd like, sir, I said,

163
00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,600
Speaker 6: the name of what the name of the attack on

164
00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:21,160
Speaker 6: a answer, and they gave me like twenty names, and I'm.

165
00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:21,840
Speaker 1: Like falling asleep.

166
00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,640
Speaker 6: I didn't like any of them. Then I see epic fury,

167
00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:27,239
Speaker 6: I said, I like that name.

168
00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:30,920
Speaker 1: I like that name. We won, and if you want

169
00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:32,680
Speaker 1: to see how much we're winning, let's put a two

170
00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,320
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. This just came out yesterday.

171
00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:37,920
Speaker 1: The Iranian drone attack in Kuwait that killed US service

172
00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:40,520
Speaker 1: members in the early hours of the war was more

173
00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:44,800
Speaker 1: severe than previously known. Dozens suffering injury that included brain trauma,

174
00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:49,080
Speaker 1: shrapnel trauma, burns. More than thirty remained in the hospital yesterday.

175
00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,360
Speaker 1: This was published yesterday with battle injuries one at Brooke

176
00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,040
Speaker 1: Army Medical Center in San Antonio, twelve at Walter Reid

177
00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,760
Speaker 1: here in the DMV area, twenty five at Lonstool in Germany.

178
00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,920
Speaker 1: Of those, about twenty arrived on a C seventeen military

179
00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:05,480
Speaker 1: transport aircraft at Lonstool on Tuesday with injuries the military

180
00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:09,480
Speaker 1: designated as quote urgent and requiring evacuation. More than one

181
00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:13,680
Speaker 1: hundred medical personnel were sent to Lonstool to assist. What's

182
00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,560
Speaker 1: even worse is that we can see how they initially

183
00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:18,920
Speaker 1: described the attack let's put that one up there on

184
00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,200
Speaker 1: the screen. This is what they said on the day

185
00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,040
Speaker 1: as if nine point thirty am, three US service members

186
00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,920
Speaker 1: have been killed in action, five are seriously wounded, several

187
00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:31,160
Speaker 1: others sustained quote minor shrapnel injuries and concussions, and are

188
00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,720
Speaker 1: in the process of being returned to duty. A straight

189
00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:35,959
Speaker 1: up lie there from the Pentagon, And if you want

190
00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,160
Speaker 1: to see how bad it was, a surviving US service member,

191
00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:44,600
Speaker 1: Sergeant first Class Corey Hooks actually described the moment that

192
00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:47,960
Speaker 1: that drone struck the Tactical Operations Center and what it

193
00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,160
Speaker 1: was like. You can see the injuries that he sustained.

194
00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:51,040
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

195
00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:53,439
Speaker 5: I remember turning my head to the left and I've

196
00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:57,560
Speaker 5: seen the nose of that drone pop through, and as

197
00:08:57,600 --> 00:08:59,680
Speaker 5: soon as it did, I knew what it was to say,

198
00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:04,440
Speaker 5: there whistle or drone, So I turned to my right

199
00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:07,400
Speaker 5: and that's when it blew up and just blew the

200
00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:11,720
Speaker 5: whole building park. Life is precious, precious, life is short.

201
00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:13,960
Speaker 5: You never know when you're going to be putting in

202
00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,400
Speaker 5: a situation like we were in.

203
00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,800
Speaker 1: Wow, it's tragic, Sergeant Hicks. I mean you could see

204
00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:22,280
Speaker 1: the injuries to his face to his hand, he's lucky

205
00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:25,280
Speaker 1: to survive, but there's so many of the of his

206
00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:29,560
Speaker 1: other comrades who are now literally languishing in hospitals. And

207
00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,240
Speaker 1: they lied to us, They lied to us completely. Also,

208
00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:34,640
Speaker 1: we should know, I think at least five were killed

209
00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:36,640
Speaker 1: in this attack. We don't know the exact number. But

210
00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:40,280
Speaker 1: don't forget about the other recent service members who we've

211
00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:42,880
Speaker 1: learned about who were killed in attacks on Saudi Arabia.

212
00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:45,880
Speaker 1: What's the wounded number there? What's the wounded number for

213
00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:49,040
Speaker 1: all the bases that we're about to show people which

214
00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:52,880
Speaker 1: have been attacked some seventeen different bases or sites in

215
00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,760
Speaker 1: the from the United States military, where we've had untold

216
00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,200
Speaker 1: billions of damage, but more importantly wounded service members. We

217
00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,160
Speaker 1: have no idea the number of casualties. We know that

218
00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:04,960
Speaker 1: the current numbers somewhere around one hundred and fifty. That

219
00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,160
Speaker 1: was just a couple of days ago. But you can

220
00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:09,680
Speaker 1: see right there what the cover up is currently happening

221
00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:11,520
Speaker 1: right now, and it only continues to escalate.

222
00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:14,800
Speaker 2: Well, and here's the thing, like all governments lie, and

223
00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,800
Speaker 2: actually democratic governments tend to, like small de democratic governments

224
00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,120
Speaker 2: actually tend to lie more because they have to bring

225
00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:23,160
Speaker 2: their population on board, so they have more of an

226
00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,680
Speaker 2: incentive to lie to their population. But this is something

227
00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:29,320
Speaker 2: different from the Trump administry, and what's different here and

228
00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,480
Speaker 2: we've seen this It reminds me of the lies around

229
00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,960
Speaker 2: Renee Good, the lies around Alex Pretty, the lies that

230
00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:38,760
Speaker 2: we've seen routinely from this administration. Where they have to

231
00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,600
Speaker 2: know that the video is going to emerge, They have

232
00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:43,920
Speaker 2: to know that the service members who survived are going

233
00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,679
Speaker 2: to come out and speak. They have to know that

234
00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,600
Speaker 2: the family members who lost what loved ones or whose

235
00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:52,760
Speaker 2: loved ones are now gravely injured, not just with minor

236
00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:54,760
Speaker 2: booboos the way they try to frame them to begin with,

237
00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:58,200
Speaker 2: are going to ultimately speak. They know this information is

238
00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,600
Speaker 2: going to come out, and yet they lie anyway. That

239
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,520
Speaker 2: is what is so incredibly wild to me. And so,

240
00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:06,160
Speaker 2: you know, I think a lot of people are being

241
00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,679
Speaker 2: treated as conspiracy theorists for saying, like, are we getting

242
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,920
Speaker 2: the real story about the overall casualty number, the number

243
00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,880
Speaker 2: of deaths, but specifically the number of injuries. And now

244
00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,120
Speaker 2: you know, those concerns about the fact that this government

245
00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,040
Speaker 2: just routinely lies about even things that you know are

246
00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,280
Speaker 2: going to come out eventually that has been completely that

247
00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,840
Speaker 2: concern has been completely validated. And so there's no reason

248
00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,480
Speaker 2: that you should trust any of the numbers that they

249
00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,080
Speaker 2: tell you. There's no reason you should trust anything they

250
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:37,560
Speaker 2: tell you, because if they'll lie about something so basic

251
00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:41,240
Speaker 2: and so essential and so sensitive as the number of

252
00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:44,959
Speaker 2: US service members who were gravely who were seriously injured

253
00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:47,880
Speaker 2: in this initial attack, they will lie to you about

254
00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:51,400
Speaker 2: absolutely anything. And so we have no idea. I mean,

255
00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:53,240
Speaker 2: this is the information they're giving us now. But this

256
00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:55,640
Speaker 2: one attack, this has been you know, reported out. Some

257
00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:57,760
Speaker 2: reporter was able to get their hands on this. But

258
00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:01,840
Speaker 2: we have no idea the overall number of casualties. We

259
00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:05,640
Speaker 2: have no idea the amount of damage that has been done.

260
00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:07,319
Speaker 3: To our bases in the region.

261
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,480
Speaker 2: We have no idea how much there was a leak

262
00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:14,000
Speaker 2: yesterday or to the Congress's brief that this has already

263
00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,760
Speaker 2: cost us over eleven billion dollars, the amount that they

264
00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:19,920
Speaker 2: are hiding from the American people, just you know, you

265
00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:21,400
Speaker 2: can't even begin to wrap your head around it.

266
00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,920
Speaker 1: This point is so unbelievable. And just to show you

267
00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:27,080
Speaker 1: the scale, let's go and put the next on up

268
00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:30,400
Speaker 1: there on the screen. At least seventeen US sites were

269
00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:33,199
Speaker 1: damaged in the war with Iran. These are all satellite

270
00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,079
Speaker 1: images from March. Second. Here's another thing I want to

271
00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,080
Speaker 1: fly to everybody, and I want to very much call

272
00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,559
Speaker 1: out these private satellite companies. For years news organizations, I

273
00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:43,360
Speaker 1: used to work at one of them. We had deals

274
00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:45,440
Speaker 1: with these private satellite companies where they would give you

275
00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,520
Speaker 1: up to date satellite imagery of some of these sites

276
00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,520
Speaker 1: which were involved. Let's say, with the military out of

277
00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:53,080
Speaker 1: the blue, all of these private satellite companies just said,

278
00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:54,480
Speaker 1: you know what, we're going to go on a two

279
00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:57,240
Speaker 1: week delay, so we have no idea what's actually happening

280
00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:00,240
Speaker 1: in the battlefield. So this is just what we know

281
00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:02,680
Speaker 1: about which have been damage. They'll let me read some

282
00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:05,440
Speaker 1: of the lists. Seventeen US sites damaged in the war

283
00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:10,480
Speaker 1: with Iran. Iran has responded with installations quote several of

284
00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,600
Speaker 1: which have been struck more than once. Their analysis is

285
00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,600
Speaker 1: currently based on high resolution commercial SATA imagery from a

286
00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:18,920
Speaker 1: couple of days ago. Remember, so it's not even currently

287
00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,600
Speaker 1: up to date. Thousands of missiles, many of them include

288
00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:30,000
Speaker 1: in Kuwait, we have the Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan,

289
00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,320
Speaker 1: and Iraq. All of these are US sites where you

290
00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,840
Speaker 1: have either US service member or US personnel which are

291
00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,080
Speaker 1: currently there. You have drone attacks, you have missile attacks.

292
00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,760
Speaker 1: Perhaps the most important ones are some of the fad

293
00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,440
Speaker 1: radar battery sites, which we've talked about here previously, and

294
00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:46,960
Speaker 1: you can actually see the damage. And again this is

295
00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,880
Speaker 1: some ten days ago that we're able to see the damage.

296
00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:52,840
Speaker 1: So God only knows what it is today when you

297
00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:57,840
Speaker 1: have escalating actions all across the entire Middle East. Hotels

298
00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:00,480
Speaker 1: where US personnel are staying. Remember still I haven't got

299
00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:02,880
Speaker 1: any casualty update on that. We know from the DD's

300
00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,160
Speaker 1: admission that there are all these service members which are

301
00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,960
Speaker 1: staying in these high priced hotels. Tons of these hotels

302
00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:09,600
Speaker 1: have been struck day after day. A couple of them

303
00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,120
Speaker 1: were struck just yesterday, right, and you have to imagine

304
00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:14,880
Speaker 1: whenever they're striking at certain floors, you know, it doesn't

305
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:18,040
Speaker 1: seem to be random. There's very obviously maybe Russian intelligence,

306
00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,680
Speaker 1: Iranian intelligence, Chinese intelligence about where some of these people are,

307
00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:25,040
Speaker 1: in addition to the exact coordinates in many of their

308
00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,840
Speaker 1: civilian infrastructure. The Dubai Airport, by the way, let me

309
00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,400
Speaker 1: make sure everybody knows this. There's a story out literally

310
00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:36,000
Speaker 1: today where a British tourist who fired who filmed Iranian

311
00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,720
Speaker 1: missiles in Dubai is now facing two years in prison

312
00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,280
Speaker 1: and being charged with the cybercrime offense. So remember this.

313
00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,480
Speaker 1: You have no idea what's going on in Dubai. You

314
00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:49,520
Speaker 1: have no idea what's going on in Qatar. We barely

315
00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,280
Speaker 1: have any idea what's going on in Israel. The video

316
00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,000
Speaker 1: we're able to show you soon that Israel allowed to

317
00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:56,960
Speaker 1: be released is only because they're going to use that

318
00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,440
Speaker 1: video as a pretext for a massive ground invasion of Lebanon.

319
00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:04,360
Speaker 1: So everything that we're able to see is totally controlled

320
00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:07,400
Speaker 1: by all of these governments. And these commercial satellite images

321
00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,040
Speaker 1: are the closest that we get, only from ten days

322
00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:13,120
Speaker 1: ago showing damage to all of these different sites. Our

323
00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:15,800
Speaker 1: friend Brandon Wiker, he described one of these bases as

324
00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:17,960
Speaker 1: he's like, it looks like Gaza, it looks like Conunists,

325
00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,160
Speaker 1: and this is just from Iranian drones and missiles. So

326
00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,440
Speaker 1: I mean, God help our troops who are stationed and

327
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,920
Speaker 1: have to sustain fire underneath these circumstances. We're going to

328
00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,200
Speaker 1: talk here in a little bit about the oil tankers.

329
00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,360
Speaker 1: I mean it's apocalyptic, not just Tehran. You have ships

330
00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,640
Speaker 1: in the middle of the ocean just getting struck and

331
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:39,640
Speaker 1: going up in flames. Those storage facilities in Oman. I

332
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:43,360
Speaker 1: think ten different countries were involved in an attack yesterday.

333
00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:46,400
Speaker 1: Ten were embroiled in the war. It's a full blown

334
00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,240
Speaker 1: world war now we have troops covered up. It is

335
00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:50,200
Speaker 1: a nightmare.

336
00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:51,920
Speaker 2: The possibility of it's spilling over to the Horn of

337
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,000
Speaker 2: Africa as well, because Israel wants to take up a

338
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 2: position they're in order to hit back at the Hufis,

339
00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,920
Speaker 2: who may also be joining the cons it appears.

340
00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:02,840
Speaker 3: So it's an absolute mess.

341
00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:06,040
Speaker 2: And to Soccer's point, these are all of them are authoritarian,

342
00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:10,040
Speaker 2: and to include Israel, our authoritarian countries, and so yeah,

343
00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,280
Speaker 2: they are not allowing anyone to post the damage because

344
00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:14,320
Speaker 2: for them it's embarrassing.

345
00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:14,600
Speaker 1: You know.

346
00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:17,880
Speaker 2: For the Iranians, there's a different incentive where you know,

347
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:21,400
Speaker 2: we're we actually see more of the damage there because

348
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,040
Speaker 2: they want to show the brutality of the US and

349
00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,840
Speaker 2: Israeli attacks. For the US, a big part of the

350
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,960
Speaker 2: goal here is to save faith. I mean, that's a

351
00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:33,600
Speaker 2: big part of what the risk is for the US

352
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,640
Speaker 2: in this conflict, which is already I mean already, they

353
00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:40,160
Speaker 2: have sustained significant damage in terms of our ability to

354
00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,560
Speaker 2: project that we are invincible, that you can't mess with us,

355
00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:45,240
Speaker 2: that you don't mess with us, that we are the

356
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:47,960
Speaker 2: big bully on the block. And so they are highly

357
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:51,280
Speaker 2: incentivized to hide all of the damage to our facilities,

358
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,320
Speaker 2: to our radars, to our thad battery systems, also to

359
00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:58,040
Speaker 2: you know, our service members themselves. One more indication of

360
00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:00,880
Speaker 2: how high the casualty numbers are. And this had come

361
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:02,280
Speaker 2: out a few days ago and was one of the

362
00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,040
Speaker 2: things that people were kind of scratching their heads about.

363
00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:06,760
Speaker 2: Put this next thing up on the screen, lonstool. This

364
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 2: largest US military hospital abroad paused some services like labor

365
00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 2: and delivery because of the war with Iran, meaning that

366
00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:19,520
Speaker 2: they were having to take in enough injured service members

367
00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:23,000
Speaker 2: that they had to prioritize that over some of the

368
00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:26,159
Speaker 2: other normal services like labor and delivery that you know,

369
00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:30,080
Speaker 2: any hospital but this one included would typically offer. So

370
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,280
Speaker 2: that came out a number of days ago and people

371
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,040
Speaker 2: were going, Okay, well, if we're only being told by

372
00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 2: the government, there were like, oh, just this handful of

373
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 2: minor wounds. This doesn't track with the largest military hospital

374
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,480
Speaker 2: abroad having to completely see certain operations in order to

375
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:49,640
Speaker 2: care for wounded service members. We also have an update

376
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 2: on you know now put a eight up on the screen. Obviously,

377
00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 2: news organizations had already all but proved that the strike

378
00:17:56,760 --> 00:18:00,520
Speaker 2: on the girls' school that killed some one hundred sixty

379
00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:04,960
Speaker 2: eight young children, young girls, that that came directly from

380
00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:05,920
Speaker 2: the US.

381
00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:07,280
Speaker 3: Well, now we have.

382
00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:11,720
Speaker 2: Reporting that our own preliminary inquiry that is happening internally

383
00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 2: here also found the US to be at fault. And

384
00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 2: it's still a question about exactly how this, how this happened.

385
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,399
Speaker 2: There appears to have been you know, sort of old

386
00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:27,679
Speaker 2: intelligence that was used to target the school. The school

387
00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,360
Speaker 2: site used to be part of a military base. Obviously

388
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,240
Speaker 2: now it is no longer part of a military base.

389
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,640
Speaker 2: It was a children's school, a girls school, And there

390
00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,360
Speaker 2: continues to be a question over whether or not Claude

391
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,959
Speaker 2: the Anthropics AI was implicated in helping to create this

392
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 2: faulty information. And when you come up with these targets,

393
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:48,680
Speaker 2: this isn't just like a one step sign of it's

394
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,399
Speaker 2: not supposed to be. It's supposed to go through multiple

395
00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 2: layers of approval, including checking the most recent satellite data

396
00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:58,760
Speaker 2: to you know, to make sure that what you're targeting

397
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 2: is what you think you are target So, still huge

398
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:03,679
Speaker 2: questions about how this happened. And then of course the

399
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,680
Speaker 2: fact that there's reporting that this is a double tap

400
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:11,840
Speaker 2: strike adds, you know, increasing increasingly dire questions about exactly

401
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 2: what the hell happened here. Trump was asked about this

402
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,080
Speaker 2: and continues to you know, continues to pretend like he

403
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,320
Speaker 2: has no idea about it, he doesn't know what's going on.

404
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:21,040
Speaker 3: You recalled it.

405
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 2: Previously he had tried to blame Iran and claim that

406
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,280
Speaker 2: they had somehow gotten their hands on a Tomahawk missile

407
00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,800
Speaker 2: and then bombed their own girls' school. Let's go and

408
00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,480
Speaker 2: take a listen to Trump. This is a seven where

409
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 2: the strike on the school in Iran a militat new

410
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,720
Speaker 2: important that the military investigation has found it would be

411
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 2: United States.

412
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:39,280
Speaker 4: That struck the school.

413
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,440
Speaker 3: I don't know about it, don't know about it.

414
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 2: So still just complete, you know, complete Israeli answer there.

415
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:49,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you can say very unequivocally now that you

416
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 1: can not only know how this happened, but you also

417
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 1: need a serious investigation. Also didn't even know this. Apparently

418
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:57,880
Speaker 1: Pete Heggs had fired a bunch of the people who

419
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 1: are in the office who are responsible for investigat civilian casualty.

420
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,120
Speaker 1: So this is even though this did happen, what we'll

421
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 1: we'll now see with the preliminary finding. The big question

422
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,439
Speaker 1: is they said the preliminary finding said it was passed

423
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,199
Speaker 1: on from the Defense Intelligence Agency. Who who did it?

424
00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 1: Who is responsible for updating the target list? Everybody knows

425
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:18,760
Speaker 1: that there's a shelf where they just keep all these

426
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,600
Speaker 1: targets in Iran. So was this target list created in

427
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 1: twenty thirteen and never updated despite the community and they

428
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 1: just pulled it off the shelf and plug and played it,

429
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 1: because that's a complete failure. In fact, the person who

430
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,479
Speaker 1: is in charge of that office or wherever had that

431
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,159
Speaker 1: portfolio on their desk. Let's say at the Chairman of

432
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 1: the Joint The way it works the Chairman of the

433
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 1: Joint Chiefs is they have like two hundred people who

434
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 1: work for them. One or two of them is going

435
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 1: to be the head of the Iran desk and they're

436
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 1: responsible for coordinating all this stuff. I'm keeping it up

437
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:46,479
Speaker 1: to date. Need to know the name. The guy's got

438
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 1: to go. He's got to be a very minimum fired

439
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 1: and probably be investigated for responsibilities of his duties. Because

440
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,399
Speaker 1: that is what a culture with real responsibility in the

441
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,199
Speaker 1: chain of command actually looks like.

442
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 2: And this is what happens when you have you know,

443
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:04,919
Speaker 2: chaotic moron in charge of the Pentagon and you know,

444
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: total incompetence and bloodlust and you know, not caring at

445
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 2: all about the rules of engagement and thinking that these

446
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 2: sort of like checks on military power are like woke

447
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,160
Speaker 2: dei bullshit. And now you've got one hundred and sixty

448
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 2: eight little girls who are dead and can't be brought.

449
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 1: It might be one of the worst atrocities in the United

450
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 1: States has been directly involved in in years. I really,

451
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 1: I'm trying to think back to three. I'm sure there

452
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 1: were one or two in the very early days of Iraq,

453
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 1: and there are a few, you know, the Kundu's hospital

454
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 1: and all that, But this to be on the very

455
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 1: first day, it should give you a lot of pause

456
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,639
Speaker 1: about how this entire war has already gone. And so

457
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 1: whenever they tell you, oh, we struck two thousand new targets,

458
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 1: you know, over the last week. It's like, were they

459
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,360
Speaker 1: all legitimate? Were they all part of the same target set?

460
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 1: Do you have any processes in place to make sure

461
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: that this isn't going to happen again? Because you know,

462
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 1: this one is particularly egregious because it's a girls' school.

463
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 1: You only you know, God only knows about the rest

464
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 1: of them. And then even inside of Tehran, it's such

465
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 1: a chaotic situation inside the entire country. Are they even

466
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 1: able to go into have cameras there like they were originally? Again,

467
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 1: same thing. We have no idea, So be very careful

468
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 1: about trusting what the government is saying and also what

469
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 1: the UAE and all these other places are saying. There's

470
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 1: an immense amount of censorship. But we could say this,

471
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 1: at the very beginning, or at the very least, the

472
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 1: United States lied to the American people about the casualties

473
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 1: that initially came out on the very first day of

474
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 1: the war. Let's continue on with Donald Trump. Turning now

475
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 1: to Donald Trump and his current justification of the war.

476
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 1: He's all over the place. It's a war, it's an excursion.

477
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 1: It's both as he said, it's going to both beginning

478
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 1: and is also ending. He said, it's just beginning. It's

479
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 1: also ending very soon. We showed you that one, this one,

480
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 1: and we won, and even though we haven't won, we

481
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 1: can continue to win. So here it is.

482
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 4: You just said it is a little excursion, and you

483
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 4: said it is a war.

484
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 1: So which one is as well?

485
00:22:59,320 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 7: It's most is it?

486
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 6: It's both. It's an excursion that will keep us out

487
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,679
Speaker 6: of a war, and the war is going to be

488
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 6: I mean, for them, it's a war.

489
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 8: For us.

490
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 7: It's turned out to be easier than we thought.

491
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's an excursion, it's a war. It turned

492
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 1: out to actually be an easier war excursion than we thought. However,

493
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 1: what we can also see is that things are not

494
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,160
Speaker 1: going well already. Here have Trump effectively threatening the use

495
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: of nuclear weapons, reminding them of our nuclear superiority. Very

496
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: fire and FURIOSQ, take a listen to this from the

497
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: White House lawn.

498
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 6: They've lost their navy, they've lost their air force.

499
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 7: They have no anti aircraft.

500
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 6: Apparatus at all, they have no radar, Their leaders are gone,

501
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 6: and we could.

502
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 7: Do a lot worse.

503
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 8: We're leaving certain.

504
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 6: Things that if we take them out, or we could

505
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 6: take them out by this afternoon, in fact, within an hour,

506
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 6: they literally would never be able to build that country.

507
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,160
Speaker 1: We could take them out within an hour. I mean, look,

508
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 1: as we continue to see Trump gave away all of

509
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 1: his negotiating leverage. Why because he keeps being like, if

510
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: you if you do this, I'm gonna bomb you. And

511
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 1: Tehran is like, well, you are bombing us. You have

512
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 1: threatened and killed. You've killed our Ayatola, you killed a

513
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 1: vast majority of our upper echelon. You have literally made

514
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: acid rain fall on the streets of Tehran. You have

515
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,360
Speaker 1: killed border guards. You've tried to foment civil war. You've

516
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 1: demanded unconditional surrender. What more can you do to us?

517
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 1: And the answer is only two things. More US ground troops,

518
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: thousands of US ground troops, perhaps to you know, take

519
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: over the straits of horn Moves or drop a nuclear bomb.

520
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 1: Would it be us? Would it be Israel? Could be either.

521
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 1: We talked about Brandon with that. But the strategic logic

522
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 1: of it, I mean, I don't know what your percentage at.

523
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 1: I'm at like five percent now you know I was

524
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 1: at three percent. Now I'm at five percent, and I'm

525
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 1: actually at twenty percent for an atmospheric test. Because we're

526
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 1: gonna talk about this with oil, the longer the shit

527
00:24:58,080 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 1: goes on. If we start to get to oil at

528
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: two hundre a barrel, the Energy Secretary this morning said

529
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 1: two hundred barrel, We need to stop talking about this.

530
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 1: Let me put it in gas prices. That's eight dollars

531
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: a gallon. So eight dollars a gallon at the pump.

532
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 1: People are gonna riot, or they should at eight dollars.

533
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 1: I certainly will, and I have an electric car, I'll

534
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 1: be mad on everybody's behalf at eight dollars a gallon.

535
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 1: Think about this, the immense pressure to wrap things up.

536
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 1: They're too prideful and too hubuistic and too far in

537
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 1: to say, okay, we're done, and so what's the other option.

538
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 1: You got to invade or you got to bomb them.

539
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 1: That's the only other thing that's left in our arsenal.

540
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,680
Speaker 1: And I mean, look, at this point, they're so afraid

541
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 1: of ground casualties that you could see like an atmospheric

542
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 1: nuclear test that would happen as a signal for unconditional surrender,

543
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 1: which is I mean unfathomable, like literally in the modern

544
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 1: nuclear age, that alone would be one of the most

545
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 1: shocking events of the century to actually.

546
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 2: Happen absolutely absolutely Now, I think we would have ground

547
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 2: trips before we would have even an hour hemospheric test.

548
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,360
Speaker 2: I think we would have ground troops first. I think

549
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 2: that would be the night because there is such even

550
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 2: for this where there is such a taboo around nuclear weapons.

551
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 2: I think you would go ground troops first. Obviously, they've

552
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 2: been you know, briefing Congress that that is a very real,

553
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 2: if not likely possibility. Reporters have been able to you know,

554
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 2: get their hands on plans of some sort of you know,

555
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: really extraordinarily dangerous, risky to the point of foolhardy operation

556
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 2: to go in and secure the loose nuclear material.

557
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 3: I think that's probably the next step.

558
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:39,199
Speaker 2: But you know, then if that goes sideways, where do

559
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,400
Speaker 2: we go next? And that is very likely to go

560
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 2: sideways in terms of the ground invasion. I mean that

561
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 2: I'm at, like, you know, very highly high likelihood because

562
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 2: if you think about we're going to talk later on

563
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 2: in the show, but Iran is now closed the straight

564
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 2: or moves effectively except for they're able to export what

565
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,479
Speaker 2: they were actually exporting more oil to China than they

566
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 2: were before. So they're doing what they want to do.

567
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 2: They're blowing up oil tankers. You know, the Navy is saying,

568
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 2: we can't escore you. It's two dangerous, we can't do it.

569
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 2: They've mined the straight Now the US has confirmed that

570
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 2: that has in fact happened. So they're doing what they

571
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:16,639
Speaker 2: want to do with the Strait of Horn moves. The

572
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 2: houthis may join the action and also close down you

573
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 2: know that area as well, which in the Red Sea,

574
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 2: which would you know it is one of the ways

575
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 2: they've been re routing oil to lessen the blow to

576
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: the oil market. So they're they're you know, destroying the

577
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 2: capacity of the global oil market.

578
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 3: So that's one thing.

579
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 2: They've also now threatened the regional banking system in Dubai

580
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:43,439
Speaker 2: because we or Israel attacked one of their banks that

581
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 2: is linked to the IRGC and so they said, okay,

582
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 2: game one, then be on notice that HSBC City, all

583
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,360
Speaker 2: of these local branches and anyone within a one kilometer

584
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,400
Speaker 2: blast radius of those branches, you are now at risk.

585
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 2: You are now at target. So they're bombing the oil,

586
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 2: they're bombing the banking. They've also put on notice the

587
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 2: tech companies who are you know, complicit in the US's

588
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 2: in Israel's entire war machine and who are also you know,

589
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,120
Speaker 2: have made deals with these local monarchies, etc. And building

590
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 2: out their data centers. They've also put them on notice

591
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 2: like you are also a target. By the way, there

592
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 2: is no way that the US is just going to

593
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,479
Speaker 2: allow them, that the Trump resum is just going to

594
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 2: allow them to mess with the oil, mess with the banks,

595
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 2: mess with the data centers, and not escalate to the

596
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 2: next level. So that's why I feel very, you know,

597
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 2: sickeningly certain that we are likely to see some sort

598
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 2: of a ground invasion and where things go from there,

599
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 2: no one can say. But back to Trump's comments here

600
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 2: about oh we won and you know, we took them

601
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 2: out and it's gone so much Bible than executed.

602
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 3: Blah blah blah.

603
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 2: Our own intel community is saying that Iran's leadership remains

604
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 2: stable despite the strikes. I just saw the new Supreme leader,

605
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 2: the son whose you know, mom, dad, wife, kid, other

606
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 2: relatives were all murdered by US in Israel, that he's

607
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 2: about to put out his first statement. There were some rumors,

608
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 2: I think the Iranians did confirm he was injured in

609
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 2: that attack as well. There were some rumors that maybe

610
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 2: he was like gravely injured or on the verge of death,

611
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 2: et cetera. So anyway they're putting out a message. You

612
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 2: can see that the Iranian diregy Ce has continued to operate.

613
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 2: They had made contingency plans in the event that the

614
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 2: top leadership was taken out, and obviously they continue to

615
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 2: be able to execute on that. So even our own

616
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 2: intel community says, there's no sign of collapse here. There's

617
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 2: no sign this thing is, you know, wobbling and on the.

618
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 3: Verge of collapse.

619
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 2: And you can tell by Trump's rhetoric himself, because when

620
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 2: he first announced the war in his baseball cap without

621
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 2: a tie, he said, it's time for the Iranian people

622
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 2: to rise up. Like I think he really believed that,

623
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 2: you know, they'd taken out the Ayatola and now there

624
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 2: was going to be this organic movement on the ground

625
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 2: overthrow the regime. Obviously none of that has manifested, and

626
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 2: now they don't even talk about it anything.

627
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 3: Yeah.

628
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: No, Actually, one of the most revealing comments that I

629
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 1: have seen so far is from Mark Dubowitz. If you

630
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 1: don't know who Mark Dubowitz is, he is, I mean,

631
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 1: I would say the pre eminent like regime change for

632
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: Iran lobby is called the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,

633
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 1: which is like a cutout front really for a large

634
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 1: part of this pro war lobby. I don't even think

635
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 1: he would really disagree with that, to be honest, Like

636
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:27,719
Speaker 1: I think you would say it is honorable. Like he

637
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 1: absolutely for years has been beating the drums for war

638
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 1: with Iran. He very recently put out a statement where

639
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 1: he's like, Okay, it will be a victory. He put

640
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: out a tweet where said it would be a victory

641
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: if we leave the regime somewhat intact and we follow

642
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 1: up the job later as long as we reduce their

643
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 1: defense capability. So they know that the war is not

644
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 1: going well. Three days ago, they weren't saying that they

645
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: were demanding regime change. Even the Israelis are still demanding

646
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 1: regime change. And Trump is trying to spin everything as good.

647
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 1: But this is the thing about bullshit is you can't

648
00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 1: billshit collides with reality. You can bs your way out

649
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 1: of a whole lot of stuff. And while the stakes

650
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: were high for tariffs, and the stakes were high for

651
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: a lot of this stuff in war, it very quickly

652
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: gets revealed. So, for example, let's go ahead and put

653
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 1: a twelve on the screen. Trump tells Axios there's practically

654
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 1: nothing left to target in Iran. They're like, oh, all

655
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 1: their ammunitions are gone, they have no capabilities. The very

656
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 1: same day that he says this, ten different countries are

657
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: then either struck by a drone or involved in the war.

658
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 1: A US flagged tanker which we'll talk and show you

659
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 1: pictures of in a little bit, gets struck in the

660
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: middle of the Persian Gulf. Oman storage facilities are literally

661
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: on fire. Three different ships in the Straits of Hormuz

662
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 1: get attacked. You have drone and missile attacks all over

663
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 1: the entire Middle East, and you a coordinated effort with Hezbola,

664
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 1: which again you will all get an update on which

665
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 1: one hundred rockets the fire into northern Israel. By the way,

666
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: only fifty percent according to at least some initial reports

667
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 1: on the ground, only fifty percent were even in intercepted.

668
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 1: Just to show you out load that they're running right,

669
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 1: and so this is a global catastrophe already, And finally

670
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: just had to show everybody this A fourteen. The only

671
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 1: regime change that we currently seem to be on track

672
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 1: for is potentially in Bahrain, from drop site News. Bahrain

673
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: is bringing in foreign riot police the first time since

674
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 1: twenty eleven to deploy foreign forces to contain their domestic unrest.

675
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 1: Demonstration have erupted against the monarchy and their role as

676
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 1: a base for US military operations, including the Navy's fifth

677
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: Fleet headquarters. So that's great, multi billion dollar facility, tens

678
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 1: of thousands of sailors. So many people, if you ever

679
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 1: served in the US Navy have probably transitated at some

680
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 1: point through Bahrain. Now, oh great, Now we have a

681
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 1: full blown Arab Spring style situation requiring riot police and

682
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 1: potentially a massive crackdown in that country. Remember Crystal, some

683
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: of the videos that came out of Bahrain where their

684
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 1: own population was cheering whenever their country is being struck.

685
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 1: Remember fifty percent of their population or so is Shia

686
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: and has long been a by the monarchy there. So

687
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: this is really bad. And then the final thing I

688
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 1: do want to show everyone is A thirteen where Trump

689
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 1: says Iran war is nearly one, but Israel has other ideas,

690
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 1: and shocking low and behold down in the bottom they

691
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 1: say that actually Israel is still fully on track for

692
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 1: regime change, that the different priorities show that they're very

693
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 1: willing and want to strike at the heart of the

694
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 1: Iranian leadership, at the heart of their civil society. There's

695
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 1: reports just last night of drones Israeli drones that are

696
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 1: hovering around shooting precisely at the police forces, trying to

697
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 1: collapse any enforcement in the streets. They're doing everything they

698
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 1: possibly can to incite an uprising and a civil war,

699
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: which of course is leading to massive nationalism in the country.

700
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: So everything is unstable the global I'm shocked that oil

701
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 1: is currently where it's at. I have no idea what

702
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 1: some of these people are thinking. I'm amazed at our

703
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: own economy asn't tanked, honestly, like with fertilizer oil, the

704
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 1: global inputs helium. That's another thing. Qatar this morning said

705
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: that they're going to shut down their production with helium.

706
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 1: It's one third of the global helium supply. For those

707
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 1: who don't know, helium is absolutely critical to the supply

708
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 1: of semiconductors and specifically chips, both in the United States

709
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 1: and South Korea and in Taiwan. So we may have

710
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: a global chip shortage as a result already of some

711
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: of the helium shortages that we're already seeing food prices

712
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 1: are going to skyrocket. When we talked all about this

713
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 1: with the war in Ukraine, diesel is currently on track

714
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 1: for five dollars a gallon. So it's bad, it's really bad.

715
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 1: And any talk of we've won or any of that,

716
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 1: you literally cannot say the words we've won and or

717
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 1: some sort of mission accomplished. On the very same day

718
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 1: that a US flag ship gets struck in the middle

719
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: of the Persian Gulf, you can't say it it's on fire,

720
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 1: supposedly under protection of the United States of America. Shocking.

721
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and yes, sure, we're bombing the hell out of Iran,

722
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 2: We're bombing the hell out of Tehran. Are we accomplishing

723
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 2: We don't even know what are our objectives are, Like,

724
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 2: let's even start with that, you know, originally as a

725
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,719
Speaker 2: regime change. Now they've walked away from that. Now it's

726
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 2: you know, then it was the nuclear mature that walked

727
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 2: away from that. Now it's like, well, we're going to

728
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,399
Speaker 2: blow up their navy, and well they seem to still

729
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 2: be able to, you know, do some stuff on the seas.

730
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 3: So I'm not sure what's going on there.

731
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 2: We don't even know what we're there for so, and

732
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 2: we are certainly not accomplishing any of the objectives that

733
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 2: have been set out. All Iron has to do is

734
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 2: survive and they win. That is all they have to do.

735
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,240
Speaker 2: And right now what our own intelligence community is saying

736
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 2: is that they are winning. That is the translation there.

737
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 2: They say, the regime is stable. So your goal of

738
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 2: destroying them, of creating chaos of war, regime change, whatever

739
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 2: the goals were, those goals are not being accomplished. And

740
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 2: in fact, Financial Times had another report about Iranian nationalism, surprise, surprise,

741
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 2: that people are rallying around the flag, even people who

742
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 2: are critics of this regime. And there are many critics,

743
00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 2: and for good reason, of this current Iranian regime, But

744
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 2: do they support having their little girls murdered at school

745
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 2: and acid rain rained down on them, and Tehran being

746
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:14,320
Speaker 2: carpet bombed, and you know, cultural sites, heritage sites being destroyed,

747
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 2: and Trump's saying, oh, the maps probably not going to

748
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 2: look the same after this. No, of course they don't

749
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 2: support that. So that's where we are, and anyone who

750
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 2: wants to deny that reality is just living in a

751
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 2: fantasy land, because, like Cyr said, especially in wartime, you know,

752
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 2: Trump can bullshit a whole lot of things and convince

753
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 2: people of a whole lot of lies, but when it

754
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:37,360
Speaker 2: comes to war, reality is going to smack you in

755
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:37,760
Speaker 2: the face.

756
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:39,840
Speaker 3: And that is what is happening right now.

757
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,240
Speaker 2: All right, Well, let's talk about some of that reality

758
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 2: with regards to oil. We've can put this up on

759
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 2: the screen, just incredible scenes that are unfolding across the

760
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 2: region as oil facilities and tankers are being struck by Iran.

761
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,720
Speaker 2: So this first one here you can see a tanker

762
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 2: on fire. This is in the Persian Gulf tonight. Here

763
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 2: is an oil facility that was also struck and you

764
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,760
Speaker 2: can see, you know, just fires everywhere. Here's a picture.

765
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:13,839
Speaker 2: So this is the straight up from moves right there.

766
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 2: That's where Trump says, you know, just go ahead, just

767
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 2: brave it.

768
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 5: Uh.

769
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 2: This is the US tank flag tanker. This is the

770
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 2: first time a US flag tanker has been struck. This

771
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,240
Speaker 2: is near a rock. There were a couple of oil

772
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,320
Speaker 2: tankers that were struck near a rock. This is another

773
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 2: tanker that is on fire. You can see the damage,

774
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 2: the damage that was sustained here. And so you know,

775
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:41,319
Speaker 2: in terms of here's someone someone posted this with this

776
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 2: is what it looks like when Trump tells you to

777
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 2: go ahead and be brave.

778
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,880
Speaker 1: Or guys, some Thai oil tank or not a Thai flagship.

779
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 1: You know, they have no one.

780
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:51,720
Speaker 3: Very difficult life.

781
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 2: It's not their choice because it's not like they can

782
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,839
Speaker 2: just be like, hey boss, I'm not down for this.

783
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 2: So they're being you know, brought into this conflict and

784
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 2: you know, these are these are.

785
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 3: Civilians who are just trying to do a job.

786
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 2: This is like the global working class truly, and now

787
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 2: they're you know, they're being attacked. Some of them are

788
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 2: being injured, some of them are losing their lives in

789
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 2: these attacks. And the Navy had originally said, you know,

790
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 2: we had I think Trump had originally announced or hegseev

791
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 2: one of them had announced like, oh, the Navy is

792
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 2: going to escort these tankers through to make sure that

793
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 2: they're safe. And then they immediately were like, oh, well,

794
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 2: we actually can't do that. They're getting tons of requests

795
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 2: to do that from these these companies that want to

796
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 2: be able to I mean, this is you know, how

797
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 2: they earn their living, and the Navy has said, no, no,

798
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 2: it's it's too dangerous because how how can you accomplish this.

799
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 2: You know, the straight upform moves has now been mined.

800
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 2: We don't know how many, you don't know where they are.

801
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:47,439
Speaker 3: But that is an incredible risk.

802
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 2: And obviously they're continuing to be able to strike these

803
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,959
Speaker 2: blows in spite of Trump telling us that oh we've

804
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 2: won and they're defeated and they have no ability to

805
00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:59,919
Speaker 2: project any more power and this thing's just about over.

806
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 2: They're having their way there in the straight up hor mooves.

807
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 2: They're able to do and operate and do whatever they

808
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 2: want to do. Early on, you know, just based on

809
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 2: the threats from Iran, the insurers had effectively sort of

810
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 2: pulled out, you know, spike prices to the point of

811
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,240
Speaker 2: being prohibitive. Now our government came in and said, don't worry,

812
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 2: we'll ensure you. But who is going to take this risk.

813
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 2: Who was going to look at these images and say

814
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 2: sign up and say, yeah, I want to do this.

815
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 2: I want to risk you know, not only the lives

816
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 2: of these individuals, but there's a lot of money that

817
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 2: these these ships are, these tankers are, and a lot

818
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 2: of money on board as well.

819
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean it is so bad that these

820
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:38,240
Speaker 1: attacks actually are what really sent some of the oil

821
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 1: prices going up again last night, somewhere around ninety dollars

822
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:46,280
Speaker 1: a barrel Brent I believe is actually higher, particularly somewhere

823
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,399
Speaker 1: near one hundred. Again, just to translate, I think if

824
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,879
Speaker 1: crude goes to one hundred, it will be roughly four

825
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 1: dollars a gallon.

826
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 3: In our set at ninety three dollars right now.

827
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 1: It's or at ninety three, so maybe three. It depends

828
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: obviously where you live, whether we're going to do gas taxes.

829
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 1: They've currently a gas tax Relief Jones Act. There's a

830
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:07,760
Speaker 1: lot of other stuff which actually could further reduce the price,

831
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 1: but as of right now, that's roughly where things are going.

832
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:14,840
Speaker 1: Highest gas prices we've seen under Donald Trump's presidency. We should,

833
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 1: of course, also note the mines that Ryan and Emily covered.

834
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 1: Some ten mines, according to the US Intelligence communities so

835
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,279
Speaker 1: far been laid in the Straits of horn Moves, and

836
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 1: they have thousands of ships obvious or boats small a

837
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 1: small craft which just have two mines or something you

838
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 1: can just float out into apparently into the middle of

839
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:33,880
Speaker 1: the Straits of horn Moves, which still have their capability.

840
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,800
Speaker 1: The US say they're only destroyed sixteen of those boats.

841
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:39,720
Speaker 1: Now so far, the estimate again literally is like thousands

842
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 1: of some sort of small craft, many of which are

843
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,919
Speaker 1: hidden in tunnels and in bunkers. But here is what

844
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 1: Donald Trump said about braving the straits of horn Moves

845
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 1: and the mines. Let's take a listen.

846
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 5: Well, you talking of various oil companies encouraging them to

847
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 5: use this straight up or.

848
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 6: Like they should. I think they should. I think they

849
00:40:58,800 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 6: should use.

850
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 1: You.

851
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 6: Look, we took out just about all of their mind shifts,

852
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:09,759
Speaker 6: and one night we're up the boat number sixty. I

853
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 6: didn't realize that that big a navy.

854
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 1: Department by oil features as a means to keep the

855
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:16,320
Speaker 1: oil prices down.

856
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 6: We're going to be in very good shape.

857
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 8: You see to what's happening.

858
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 7: They are pretty much at the end of the line.

859
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 7: Doesn't mean we're going to end it immediately, but they

860
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:25,920
Speaker 7: they are.

861
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 6: They've got no navy, they've got no air force, they've

862
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 6: got no anti air traffic anything, they have.

863
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:37,479
Speaker 7: No systems of control. We're just riding free range over

864
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 7: that country. And now we're going to look very strongly

865
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 7: at the straits. The straits are in great shape. We've

866
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 7: knocked out all of their boats. They have some missiles,

867
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:48,440
Speaker 7: but not very many.

868
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 3: Wow.

869
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 1: At the exact moment he was saying that US flagship

870
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 1: was getting attacked.

871
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:56,400
Speaker 2: To the States are in great, Strates are in great.

872
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 1: No, they're shut down. They're completely shut down. There's nothing

873
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 1: moving through that except what Iran wants to move through there,

874
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 1: all of that coastline. I was already seeing this morning.

875
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 1: What do you think I'm reading reports contingency plans for

876
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 1: taking over the streets would require us securing the coastline.

877
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 1: So it's like all the coastline on the straights and

878
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 1: our moves, US troops have to go there. If they're there,

879
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 1: then you got to make sure that they don't get

880
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 1: attacked from the rear guard, which means what a large

881
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 1: ground force. You can't bomb your way out of this,

882
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 1: as we're going to talk about with Professor Pape.

883
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:28,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, and if you do, just try to send that

884
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 2: those Navy esport they're sitting duck yep, right, I mean,

885
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 2: that's why they can't do it, and that's why coincidentally,

886
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 2: I mean, this is one of the many reasons why

887
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 2: the military did not want this war. I mean, Bibi

888
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:43,839
Speaker 2: it said himself, he has been dreaming of this war

889
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 2: for forty years, and we have had in that time

890
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 2: period many American presidents who were extremely pro Israel, who

891
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:53,799
Speaker 2: did many things that Israel wanted them to do, and

892
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:56,279
Speaker 2: were on their side through thick and thin. But when

893
00:42:56,280 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 2: it came to this war with Iran, those presidents, that

894
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 2: would be an idiotic move, It would be dangerous, it

895
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:07,879
Speaker 2: would be extraordinarily risky. We cannot do it. It took

896
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,959
Speaker 2: till this president and whatever is going on with him

897
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 2: and his sugar high after Venezuela, and you know, his

898
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 2: foolishness to actually get us indo this thing, because the

899
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:21,879
Speaker 2: military knew that this would be a disaster. And this

900
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:25,879
Speaker 2: is one of many reasons why this is extraordinary too.

901
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 2: So let's put B three up on the screen. So

902
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 2: originally Trump had actually been opposed to any sort of

903
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 2: strategic petroleum release. He has now completely done a one

904
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,840
Speaker 2: eighty on that, not only in terms of our own reserves,

905
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:41,320
Speaker 2: but in terms of global reserves. The IEA has announced

906
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:46,399
Speaker 2: their largest ever oil release from global strategic reserves. They've

907
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 2: decided to release four hundred million barrels in an attempt

908
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 2: to prevent supplied disruptions and tame crude prices. So you

909
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 2: have that, you have an announcement about a release from

910
00:43:55,400 --> 00:44:00,760
Speaker 2: our own strategic petroleum reserve, and so as that is happening,

911
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:06,280
Speaker 2: at the same time, we still have oil prices going up.

912
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 3: That is an extraordinary situation. Okay.

913
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 2: What this was meant to do was to keep those

914
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 2: oil prices low, to calm the markets, to bring the

915
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 2: price back down or at least maintain its position.

916
00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 3: That has not succeeded. That has failed.

917
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 2: Why because of exactly the scenes that we just showed you,

918
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:26,800
Speaker 2: Because of these tankers on.

919
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,800
Speaker 3: File fire, you know, right near a rock.

920
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 2: In the Persian Gulf, and people are looking at that

921
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 2: and saying, you can release all of the reserve that

922
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 2: you want to, it is not going to be sufficient

923
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:42,239
Speaker 2: to deal with the disruption that we are seeing in

924
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 2: the Persian Gulf. So the fact that you have this

925
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 2: release and you still have oil prices ticking up and

926
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 2: up and up, that tells you the markets are starting

927
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 2: to figure out this is a dire situation. You know,

928
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:59,399
Speaker 2: to me, they're still underestimating just how bad things are

929
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 2: at this point. But you know that's the combination of

930
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,360
Speaker 2: those two news stories is highly significant.

931
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:08,359
Speaker 1: They still have faith that they're going to figure this

932
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 1: thing out, and they just don't seem to understand that

933
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 1: we are in it now. Unless he ron decides that

934
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 1: they don't want to do it anymore, and for them

935
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 1: not to do it anymore, well, we are going to

936
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:20,320
Speaker 1: have to give him an extraordinary amount of concessions. This

937
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 1: is why, as he said, we'll talk about with this

938
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:26,160
Speaker 1: Professor Pape, all logic, all internal logic. It would take

939
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 1: one of the most supreme acts of heroism of Donald

940
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:33,279
Speaker 1: Trump's entire life to say I'm done, I'm done. Do

941
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 1: you have any idea? Though how difficult that is. The

942
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 1: troops are out there everyone. I mean, it would be ridiculed.

943
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:41,759
Speaker 1: I won't do it because even though I'm furious about

944
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:44,239
Speaker 1: the war, I would do the fake thing. I'll go

945
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: on television and be like, thank you, You're the most

946
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: courageous president ever to try to do so. Most people won't.

947
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:51,879
Speaker 1: They'll ridicule him rightfully. So, you know, if we're being

948
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 1: honest about dragging us into this as a disaster, all

949
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:57,880
Speaker 1: of his advisors are too afraid to actually tell him

950
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 1: that this is as bad and so all logic. It's

951
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: just like Vietnam. The easiest thing to do. Or Afghanistan

952
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 1: or Iraq, what's the easiest thing to do? Send in

953
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 1: more troops, escalate more, do more, do more, save face. God,

954
00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 1: it was peace with honor. Can't withdraw even though it

955
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 1: all ends up at the same place sigone on the

956
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 1: helicopter in nineteen seventy five. You can see exactly how

957
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: this is all going to go, except you just waste

958
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:23,839
Speaker 1: billions of dollars lives in the process. That's the real

959
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 1: tragedy of it. I do want to talk about fertilizer.

960
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 1: We have B five here. It's a farmer who was

961
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:32,320
Speaker 1: just interviewed talking about the spike in fertilizer prices. And

962
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 1: I'll talk a little bit more on the other side.

963
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

964
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 8: Those that need to buy are hurting pretty bad because

965
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 8: we've had this huge jump in fertilizer prices because of

966
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 8: this conflict. And you know, with only about thirty percent

967
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 8: of fertilizer coming through the Strait of Horez, that's if

968
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 8: you divide that out per day, that's about zero point

969
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 8: zero nine percent of the world's fertilizer coming through there.

970
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 8: And even if the US only uses thirty percent of

971
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 8: that which I think is probably a really high number.

972
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 8: That's point zero three percent per day. So we've only

973
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,719
Speaker 8: been in conflict for nearly twelve days here, and our

974
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 8: fertilizer costs have jumped nearly seventy seven percent.

975
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 1: So he's talking there about the price spike. So I

976
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 1: recently listened I highly recommend it odd Lot's friend Joe Wisenthal.

977
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:21,879
Speaker 1: They just did an episode on fertilizer, so I had

978
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 1: obviously not a fertilizer expert or anything. We have no

979
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:28,280
Speaker 1: fertilizer strategic reserve like we do with oil. A huge

980
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 1: portion of it moves through the straits and horn moves

981
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:34,840
Speaker 1: apparently Urea the way that it's whatever grown or something

982
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 1: like that has to be done next to these natural

983
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 1: gas plants, and so it's naturally from Russia and or

984
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 1: the Middle East, so that's the natural place for it

985
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 1: to be grown. Right now is planting season, so right

986
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 1: now is when the fertilizer is apparently needed the most. Already,

987
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:51,319
Speaker 1: the spot price I think of urea and corn is

988
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 1: like near it's all time high if you look at

989
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,959
Speaker 1: those two things. The price spike for the farmers here

990
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 1: will eventually be passed on to us as consumers in

991
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,400
Speaker 1: the form of groceries and inputs for all these different goods.

992
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 1: But the worst part actually is for the developing world

993
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 1: because this is an outright massive shortage. That shortage will

994
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 1: mean that many developing countries. Have we seen now with

995
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:15,840
Speaker 1: Bangladesh or India, many countries which are poor can't afford

996
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 1: some of the higher oil prices or fertilizer. They just

997
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:21,319
Speaker 1: won't buy it, which means low crop yield, which means

998
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 1: potential famine, or like they w have to declare a

999
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 1: state of emergency and buy, you know, food from some

1000
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 1: other country, tap into that. IMF could get involved, like

1001
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 1: you have no like the World Food Program. Like it's

1002
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:36,000
Speaker 1: a serious, serious crisis. And that is something I had

1003
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 1: never thought about, you know, really even seen for the

1004
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:40,319
Speaker 1: movement through the straits of horror moves. And the other

1005
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:43,720
Speaker 1: problem for fertilizer is that oil is the number one concern.

1006
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 1: So even when it does reopen, as Rory has told us,

1007
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 1: that it'll take a couple of months just to go

1008
00:48:49,080 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 1: back to normal, well, oil is going to get first priority,

1009
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:54,359
Speaker 1: which means a fertilizer will continue to be back behind that.

1010
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:56,399
Speaker 1: And there's all this stuff about how you can't really

1011
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 1: store it, like it doesn't store very well for a

1012
00:48:59,080 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 1: couple of months, so we we really could be in

1013
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 1: a serious shortage. It's something I'd never considered, but it

1014
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 1: really like this, this could actually be.

1015
00:49:06,040 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 2: Really I mean, it reminds very much both of the

1016
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 2: Ukraine War and also of COVID, where all of these

1017
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 2: sorts of things that people didn't think of, including not

1018
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 2: just us, but like you know, experts to run the

1019
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:19,719
Speaker 2: global economy didn't think of the ways that you know,

1020
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 2: these uh, these problems would compound and there would be

1021
00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 2: all sorts of unintended consequences, and that it wouldn't be

1022
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:28,799
Speaker 2: just like, Okay, we're open again, so everything's all good.

1023
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 2: That there would be months and years of getting back

1024
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 2: to some semblance of quote unquote normal because our system,

1025
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:37,879
Speaker 2: our global economic system.

1026
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 3: Is built in a very fragile way.

1027
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:41,799
Speaker 2: That is, you know, that has been sort of the

1028
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 2: basis of neoliberalism. You mentioned helium. Someone on Twitter is

1029
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,960
Speaker 2: saying barren investment says good piece on Blueberg Intelligence and

1030
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:52,920
Speaker 2: for those with helium exposure guitars. Shutdown of LNG production

1031
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 2: has taken about a third of global helium production offline.

1032
00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:01,840
Speaker 2: Affecting chip makers who rely on heliums semiconductor manufacturing. Helium

1033
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 2: has no viable substitute in the chip manufacturing process. No

1034
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 2: other source can immediately replace guitar supply. Helium containers already

1035
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:11,760
Speaker 2: filled before the war remain stranded. If the disruption persists,

1036
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:15,440
Speaker 2: healing shortages could force chip makers to deprioritize lower margin

1037
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 2: product lines, reinforcing existing allocation toward AI memory, deepening an

1038
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:23,919
Speaker 2: already severe memory shortage. So yet another unintended consequences that

1039
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 2: you know, certainly no one in this idiotic administration has

1040
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 2: thought of.

1041
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:28,879
Speaker 3: I mean, they didn't even.

1042
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 2: Think about the oil thing, which is like the most

1043
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 2: obvious thing that you could ever think of with a

1044
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:35,319
Speaker 2: war in the Middle East, and they had not even

1045
00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 2: plans for that. Because Trump was so high on his

1046
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 2: own supply, he genuinely thought that if he just murdered

1047
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 2: the Iyatola and hit Ron hard, that the whole thing

1048
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:46,720
Speaker 2: could be all wrapped up in a mission accomplished banner.

1049
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:49,440
Speaker 2: And now here we are and they have no idea

1050
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:52,360
Speaker 2: what to do. Lastly, I mentioned this before, but I

1051
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,840
Speaker 2: just think this is incredible. Put B six up on

1052
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 2: the screen. So while you know, while oil ship made

1053
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:02,840
Speaker 2: shipping through the straight offor Moves is completely closed for

1054
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:06,399
Speaker 2: us or any of our allies. Iran is still doing

1055
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 2: what they want to do. They've actually increased the amount

1056
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:13,960
Speaker 2: of oil exports that they have been able to ship out,

1057
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 2: largely to China. So, you know, the whole coparale this

1058
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 2: is all about hurting China, blah blah blah. First of all,

1059
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 2: Iranian oil is not even a really large percentage of

1060
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 2: China's energy, you know, doesn't meet a large percentage of

1061
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:29,799
Speaker 2: China's energy requirements overall, it's like one percent of the

1062
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:32,720
Speaker 2: energy that China consumes. China itself is a large oil producer.

1063
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:36,040
Speaker 2: They've also invested heavily in renewable energy, et cetera, et cetera.

1064
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 2: But in any case, even if they were you know,

1065
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 2: even if this was a big problem for them, apparently

1066
00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 2: they're still getting what they need from Iran in terms

1067
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 2: of their energy needs. So just an incredible, incredible statistic.

1068
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 2: You know, It's one thing that we have heard and

1069
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 2: I've been saying, is you know, closing out the street

1070
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:58,799
Speaker 2: of hord Moves, they're also hurting themselves. Apparently that's not

1071
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 2: the case. Apparently we are able to operate in a

1072
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 2: way that we are not able to operate there at

1073
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:03,919
Speaker 2: this point.

1074
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:06,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. It's really I mean, it's just such

1075
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 1: a bad, bad situation.