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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's good, we'reout further ado.

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Speaker 2: That's what the game's all about.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden you feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna leave it up there, including make that if

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Speaker 3: you try that again.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, NBA Finals Edition, coming

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Speaker 1: to you on Friday morning. Recording this on Thursday night

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Speaker 1: before Saturday's Game five of the now tied to two

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Speaker 1: series between the Phoenix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks. A

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Speaker 1: couple of reminders before we get started. All odds today

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Speaker 1: are provided by bet MGM, the official odds provider of

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Speaker 1: the Action Network Podcast. Also everything you hear about tonight,

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Speaker 1: including where the money is, where the bets are, what

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Speaker 1: our model says, all sorts of things, plus crack analysis

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Speaker 1: from Brandon Andre and myself along with all the rest

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Speaker 1: of our NBA crew, as well as all the great

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Speaker 1: content across all sports. Getting ready for NFL season, MLB

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Speaker 1: is it gets late in the season, all manner of things. Ever,

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Speaker 1: if you can bet it, we have a cover to

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Speaker 1: Action Network and the Action Network app. Download that on

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Speaker 1: your mobile device immediately right now. If you do not

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Speaker 1: have to have the app, go do that. I'm not

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Speaker 1: just swelling that I'm not just company manning this. I'm

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Speaker 1: definitely company manning it. But it is genuinely the best app.

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Speaker 1: If you are better, you are not going to find

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Speaker 1: a better app for tracking your bets, for getting up

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Speaker 1: to the second scores, for finding out what the lines are,

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Speaker 1: to see where they've moved, to see where the money is,

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Speaker 1: all the information plus our analysis. Check it out on

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Speaker 1: our award winning Action network app Gents two two. No

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Speaker 1: road Team has won a game yet, so technically, according

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Speaker 1: to the old saying, the series hasn't even begun yet.

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Speaker 1: As Milwaukee Bucks storm back from down nine in the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter, when I was like, I don't think they

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Speaker 1: can make up nine points to tie the series, Giannis

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Speaker 1: had one of the best defensive plays we're ever going

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Speaker 1: to see. Chris Middleton came up absolutely massive, And now

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Speaker 1: we're going to spend thirty five minutes arguing with Brandon

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Speaker 1: about Finals MVP. Let's this is a betting podcast, so

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Speaker 1: I actually want to start there. We'll get to game

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Speaker 1: five and where we think the value is on the series,

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Speaker 1: but let's start with finals MVP and the kind of

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Speaker 1: twist of how we usually do things So Brandon made

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Speaker 1: the argument on the last podcast that's really tried to

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Speaker 1: talk Rahiem and I into the idea that DeAndre eighten

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Speaker 1: it was it eighty to one, eighty to one had value.

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Speaker 1: And then during the game, as Chris Paul struggled, Brandon

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Speaker 1: littered his timeline with various shots at the point god

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Speaker 1: about how bad he was in this one singular game

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Speaker 1: as DeAndre Ayden scored a whole total of of six points.

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Speaker 1: I cannot help but feel, Brandon, like you are trying

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Speaker 1: to swing public perception through Twitter towards either DeAndre eight

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Speaker 1: and at eighty to one or your j Crowder twenty

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Speaker 1: five to one pre series bet.

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Speaker 5: So, first of all, my Twitter account, I assure you

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Speaker 5: does not have that much sway.

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Speaker 4: So that's what I retweeted.

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Speaker 1: I retweeted, and I have a lot of folks online.

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Speaker 5: Oh so it's really it's a victory lap. It's like

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Speaker 5: a self victory lapse set up like a bump and

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Speaker 5: a spike there. Now, I honestly, I just thought Chris

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Speaker 5: Paul was playing poorly. I did pump up eight and

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Speaker 5: early on. He had six and six in the first quarter,

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Speaker 5: so that was all of his points, as it turned out,

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Speaker 5: but he was really dominating the glass. I thought Phoenix

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Speaker 5: looked like they were really hitting the glass early, like

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Speaker 5: the things that we saw in Game three, the offensive rebounds,

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Speaker 5: the turnovers, like the things we saw as problems. It

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Speaker 5: felt like Phoenix was being really care full about early.

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Speaker 5: They're trying to stay out of foul of trouble. They

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Speaker 5: were really hitting the glass. It worked for a quarter,

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Speaker 5: and I thought that Ayton was a big part of

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Speaker 5: what was working. He had no fouls the first quarter.

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Speaker 5: He's playing good defense. Giannis started really slowly, which is

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Speaker 5: a weird trend that's been happening. Like you would think

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Speaker 5: that with the knee injury, you'd think that he would

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Speaker 5: start well and then maybe wear down, and it's kind

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Speaker 5: of been the opposite thing. So yeah, I thought Ayden

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Speaker 5: was good early. He was great in the glass all game.

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Speaker 5: He went three of nine, which is ridiculous. I think

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Speaker 5: he literally has the all time record right now for

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Speaker 5: field goal percentage in the postseason, so that you know,

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Speaker 5: he just missed shots. But Aydon clearly wasn't the MVP.

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Speaker 5: I just felt like Chris Paul just wasn't good.

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Speaker 4: He was bad. He was really bad. I think he

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Speaker 4: cost them that game.

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Speaker 5: I think that if he's even average in that game,

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Speaker 5: I think Phoenix is up three to one right now.

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Speaker 5: And I'm a huge Chris Paul fan. I hate to

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Speaker 5: say it, it's just what I saw.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't matter for this discussion. Obviously the series, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: if they lose the series, you can probably go back

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Speaker 1: and say, if Chris Paul plays better in Game four,

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Speaker 1: they win that game. I'll come I'll circle back round

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Speaker 1: to my defense at the point. God there, but I'm

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Speaker 1: asking for the finals MVP. Here's the thing we do.

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Speaker 1: We need to circle back on this point because we've

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Speaker 1: touched on it, but we haven't actually like narrowed it down.

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Speaker 1: I'm of the opinion that what matters is who plays

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Speaker 1: best in the four games the winning team wins. So

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Speaker 1: if the Suns had won, I think that Booker probably

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Speaker 1: has a lot more value. But they didn't, and so now, yes,

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Speaker 1: Paul was the reason they lost Game four. I don't

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Speaker 1: disagree with you there on top of just the bucks

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Speaker 1: incredible effort in that game. But if they come back

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Speaker 1: and they win the series and Chris Paul plays well

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Speaker 1: in the final two wins, doesn't that matter?

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Speaker 3: More.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, and I think two yeah, just to clarify it too.

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Speaker 5: And I think this is what you're saying. I'm not

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Speaker 5: sure that you believe that only the four wins should matter.

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Speaker 5: I think you're saying that's what you think matters to

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Speaker 5: the voters.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Correct, that's all I care about it. I like

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Speaker 1: I spent a lot of time defining like how MVP

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Speaker 1: should be judge, I'm not going to do it for

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Speaker 1: finals MVP. It's seven games, like whatever you want to say, raheem,

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Speaker 1: I got some numbers for you. Okay, you're ready for this.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Yeah, I'm ready for this.

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Speaker 1: John ewing Over at bet MGM tweeted last night after

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Speaker 1: the game. Before the playoffs he was plus four thousand

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Speaker 1: to win finals MVP. Devin Booker was plus four thousand

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Speaker 1: before game three, he was plus six hundred after the

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Speaker 1: third quarter, he was plus one seventy five. After the

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Speaker 1: game he moved a plus one hundred and then after finally, no,

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry. That was in the fourth quarter, and then

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Speaker 1: after the game they moved Jannics and Booker into co

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Speaker 1: finals MVP at plus one fifty. Here's where it gets

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Speaker 1: really interesting. That was I am looking at the time

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Speaker 1: stamp on this, that was nine forty pm Mountain time

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Speaker 1: on July fourteenth, Wednesday night. As we record this one

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Speaker 1: day later, literally twenty four hours later, is when it's

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Speaker 1: nine forty two mountain time. As I'm recording this, Devin

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Speaker 1: Booker has moved to plus two point fifty, Chris Paul

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Speaker 1: back to plus one ninety. Janis is plus one thirty.

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Speaker 1: So what this tells me is I can't imagine that

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Speaker 1: they really readjusted it. It seems to me very much

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Speaker 1: like they moved Booker to plus one fifty, they moved

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Speaker 1: Paul back, and big money came in on Chris Paul

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Speaker 1: at that point. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, here's the thing, is bet MGM keeping their

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Speaker 3: numbers open door the game.

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Speaker 6: Yes, that's because because because someone on this, on this

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Speaker 6: very podcast that you may or may not be speaking

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Speaker 6: to currently, definitely bet Devin Booker once he went off

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Speaker 6: for forty two points as a hedge against his Chris

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Speaker 6: Paul plus four hundred bet back in the Western Conference finals,

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Speaker 6: because he saw.

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Speaker 1: That turning and was like, I don't want to get

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Speaker 1: screwed here. There's no way.

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Speaker 3: If I got a bookmaker, I'd leave that open.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, yeah, that's crazy.

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Speaker 1: They left it. They can. You can basically live Bet

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Speaker 1: Finals MVP.

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Speaker 4: Wow to me.

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Speaker 5: Devin Booker as the MVP is still a baffling proposition.

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Speaker 5: The first three games of the series, he shot thirty

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Speaker 5: eight percent from the field. Thirty eight percent. Yeah, he's

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Speaker 5: basically just not good other than he hit seven threes

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Speaker 5: in game two, but like his twos have been bad

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Speaker 5: all series until he started hitting in game four. He

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Speaker 5: was awesome in game four, hit every shot. He he

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Speaker 5: racked up like fourteen fouls. Big game for Booker. They

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Speaker 5: didn't win, and so it's that I feel like, yeah,

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Speaker 5: that's what we've seen is they're just gonna kind of

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Speaker 5: throw that out, like, oh yeah, it was good for

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Speaker 5: that game. But who do you think let's say that

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Speaker 5: the series ends right now?

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Speaker 4: It's over. It's tied at two to two.

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Speaker 5: Bud Selig made the decision who is the Phoenix Suns

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Speaker 5: Finals MVP right now? But he's he literally has been

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Speaker 5: the worse three straight games. He was great in game

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Speaker 5: one and he's been worse each game after that.

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Speaker 1: He led He led the Suns in scoring and assist

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Speaker 1: until Game four.

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Speaker 5: That's also true, but so is my point. He's gotten

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Speaker 5: the worse each game.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't matter that Like he doesn't have to have

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Speaker 1: sequentially better games, like he doesn't, haven't. You don't have

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Speaker 1: to get better as a series goes on. If you're

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Speaker 1: if you're dominant in the first two and you're good

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Speaker 1: in this in the last two wins, that's it. Like

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Speaker 1: that's all you.

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Speaker 3: I want to know who's the finals MVP. According to Brandon,

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Speaker 3: if it's not.

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Speaker 4: Chris Paul, No, I mean I think it probably.

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Speaker 5: I think it probably has to be because almost it's

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Speaker 5: I ask because I don't know how you can make

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Speaker 5: the case for someone else fairly. I think it has

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Speaker 5: to be Chris Paul by default. But I think that

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Speaker 5: I'm having such a hard time saying it's him through

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Speaker 5: four games when I know how good he is and

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Speaker 5: how valuable he is, I don't know, Like to me though,

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Speaker 5: despite all of that, Chris Paul at plus one ninety so, Matt,

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Speaker 5: you have the article up. We talked with this going

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Speaker 5: in the game four about how the way to bet

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Speaker 5: the Suns doing the series is to bet Chris Paul

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Speaker 5: to win the series, just like the way to bet

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Speaker 5: the Bucks is to.

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Speaker 4: Bet Yan yees.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, they currently have adjusted that. Bucks and Giannis is

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Speaker 5: almost identical pricing now, which should have been the whole

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Speaker 5: while Chris Middleton, I love you. I've got my twenty

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Speaker 5: seven to one ticket that I got back in the

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Speaker 5: Brooklyn series. It's it's done. It's not happening. If the

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Speaker 5: Bucks win, it's Giannis. The Sun's line has switched though.

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Speaker 5: Right now it's at minus one fifty series, but plus

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Speaker 5: one ninety for Chris Paul.

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Speaker 4: So if if you believe, like we've been saying.

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Speaker 5: Throughout that it's Chris Paul, it's always Chris Paul, it

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Speaker 5: was always going to be Chris Paul, and you think

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Speaker 5: the Suns win the series, right now, this is your

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Speaker 5: opening because plus one ninety versus minus one fifty is

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Speaker 5: an implied thirty four percent for Chris Paul to win

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Speaker 5: finals MVP versus implied sixty percent for them to win

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Speaker 5: the series.

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Speaker 4: That's a huge edge.

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Speaker 1: Yeap, So I do want to correct something here. This

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Speaker 1: is his game two line, Randon. Chris Paul in Game

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Speaker 1: two had twenty three points on ten of twenty, shooting

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Speaker 1: fifty percent from the field, three to five from three

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Speaker 1: for sixty percent from three only had one free throw

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Speaker 1: which he missed, eight assists, four rebounds, one steal he

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Speaker 1: had this. Okay, we're now to the point where we're

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Speaker 1: talking too much about the turnovers because it's like, I mean, they.

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Speaker 3: Won ten points, so it's kind of nice. It's not

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Speaker 3: even really relevant.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he was good. He just he was better in

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Speaker 4: game one. That's all.

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Speaker 2: He was great.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not willing to say he was bad in

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Speaker 1: game two.

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Speaker 4: I think that's fair.

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Speaker 1: I think he was great in game one. I thought

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Speaker 1: he was good in game two. I thought he was

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Speaker 1: okay in game three, and he was bad in game four.

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Speaker 1: And you're right, he's trending the other way. The question is,

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Speaker 1: why would we think that this would continue? The Sun's podcasters.

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Speaker 1: I listened to the timeline pod last night. They think

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Speaker 1: that he's got a risk injury.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I saw that all over my timeline. So

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Speaker 5: I actually went back last night because so they thought

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Speaker 5: game one that he reinjured it game one. So I

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Speaker 5: actually went back and watched watch the second half of

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Speaker 5: game one because I wanted to see, Okay, when did

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Speaker 5: this happen?

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Speaker 4: What's happening?

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Speaker 5: And it's the third quarter, So game one Chris Paul

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Speaker 5: has a slow start. He only two points halfway through

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Speaker 5: the second quarter. Then he closed out the quarter strong.

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Speaker 5: He had sixteen in the third quarter, and that was

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Speaker 5: when the Suns made their big run and basically put

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Speaker 5: the game away. As that run by CP is happening.

256
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Speaker 5: You see him if you're just watching for you see

257
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Speaker 5: him a couple different times, kind of shake that left wrist.

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Speaker 5: He wins it a little bit. You see that he's reacting.

259
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Speaker 5: And then when he checks out, he goes over the bench.

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Speaker 5: The trainers go and surround him. They put the towels up.

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Speaker 5: They're holding towels up around him so that we can't see,

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Speaker 5: and you see one trainer start to like look to

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Speaker 5: retape his left wrist. So and that's what's happening. Then

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Speaker 5: that was near the end of the quarter. They asked

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Speaker 5: Manty about it in the fourth quarter, interviewed how's Chris,

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Speaker 5: and he said he's fine, He's just playing through pain, which,

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Speaker 5: of course, what else is he gonna say. So I

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Speaker 5: felt like watching that game and I don't know how

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Speaker 5: to trust this, but I watched more after that. It

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Speaker 5: did feel like he was definitely favoring his right hand,

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Speaker 5: like it felt like he was his dribble, didn't feel

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Speaker 5: like he was joining to the left that much. He's

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Speaker 5: also right handed, Like, I don't watch Chris Paul dribble dribble,

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Speaker 5: dribble all the time to know exactly what I thought that.

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Speaker 5: I then went back watched a little bit of Game

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Speaker 5: four to say, Okay, is is there a you know,

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Speaker 5: is Drew only guarding the right hand? Is CP only

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Speaker 5: I don't know. I didn't see anything in game four

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Speaker 5: after having just watched the supposed injury in Game one

280
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Speaker 5: that made me think, oh, yeah, I'm definitely noticing this

281
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:30,080
Speaker 5: thing that's happening. So I understand what they're saying. Certainly

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Speaker 5: the trajectory of the series that as he has gotten

283
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Speaker 5: less good at least each game would lend to injury.

284
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Speaker 5: But I also just wonder if it's just Drew Halliday

285
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,360
Speaker 5: being an awesome defender and Chris Paul kind of getting

286
00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:43,840
Speaker 5: worn out on a long play ian.

287
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Speaker 3: I also think it's the fact that the Bucks have

288
00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:50,840
Speaker 3: figured out that Chris Paul can't go left and you're

289
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Speaker 3: forcing him left, and along with that injury and Drew Holliday,

290
00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,600
Speaker 3: it's it's kind of rough one. It's like not everybody

291
00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:03,560
Speaker 3: can be Kyrie, and I think they're exploiting a week

292
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Speaker 3: a weakness, Like if you go back and look, he

293
00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:09,720
Speaker 3: really can't go left.

294
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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he can also stay on the

295
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:19,560
Speaker 1: floor and doesn't vanish into thin air and be believes

296
00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:23,280
Speaker 1: in gravity. But more more importantly, here I did want

297
00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:25,760
Speaker 1: to play this out. Here's here's game three, Game three one,

298
00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:29,800
Speaker 1: one game ago. Chris Paul nineteen points on eight of fourteen,

299
00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:35,280
Speaker 1: shooting fifty seven percent, nine assists for turnovers, still a

300
00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:39,800
Speaker 1: two to one assist for shoot. Like, guys, Chris Paul

301
00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:43,600
Speaker 1: had a bad game. His floor is lower than Lebron

302
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:45,120
Speaker 1: James is, Like he's not going to go out there

303
00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:47,880
Speaker 1: and just like rack up thirty five and seven every night.

304
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,920
Speaker 1: That's not that's not where he's that's not the player

305
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:52,960
Speaker 1: that he's been for a decade. That's not the player

306
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,800
Speaker 1: that he's ever really been, And it's certainly not the

307
00:15:55,840 --> 00:16:00,000
Speaker 1: player that he is now. His floors is much much lower.

308
00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:05,400
Speaker 7: But I just kind of feel like Chris had a

309
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,040
Speaker 7: bad game, like he had a he had a bad

310
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Speaker 7: game on the road, Like does it have to be

311
00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,480
Speaker 7: more than does it have to be like Drew Holliday

312
00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:16,320
Speaker 7: and the Bucks have figured him out and he can't

313
00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:18,680
Speaker 7: go left and they've warned him out and his versus

314
00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:19,320
Speaker 7: he had.

315
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:19,720
Speaker 4: A bad game.

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Speaker 3: That's fair, That's fair.

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm my big thing here, like Raim, Like the

318
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 1: isn't this like the obvious spot to go back on

319
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,320
Speaker 1: the Suns right now? Because like if everyone is just

320
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:37,800
Speaker 1: like the momentum has turned and the how are what

321
00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:39,720
Speaker 1: are they gonna do? And like this that and the

322
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:43,000
Speaker 1: other and we'll get into the reasons why, but just

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Speaker 1: you are a big time, big money professional better, what

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00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 1: do you think is it not? Is this not like

325
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:56,200
Speaker 1: I would think this is optimal? Like this is I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you, I feel great because I had that. I've

327
00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:00,600
Speaker 1: got that Sons in six or seven ticket might as

328
00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,600
Speaker 1: one and a half, which means I'm in a pretty

329
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:07,320
Speaker 1: good spot here because I don't see any way the

330
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,280
Speaker 1: Suns lose Game five and I think Game six is

331
00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:14,680
Speaker 1: a coin flip, Like is this not like an optimum

332
00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 1: opportunity right now to bet the Suns? You know it.

333
00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,320
Speaker 3: Is an optimal opportunity, But I just have a different

334
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,720
Speaker 3: like sometimes that you just have a feeling where it's

335
00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:25,760
Speaker 3: just it just doesn't feel right. I mean the way

336
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,200
Speaker 3: they lost that game, and people forget this is still

337
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,480
Speaker 3: a young team. This is not a team that's you know,

338
00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 3: super duper experienced, and they've been through the wringer and

339
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,480
Speaker 3: they suffered through pain. They haven't been to the playoffs

340
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:41,080
Speaker 3: in ten years. Like nobody other than Chris Paul and

341
00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:45,280
Speaker 3: Jay Crowder have any playoff experience. So it's just like

342
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,840
Speaker 3: for them to lose a game in which they shoot

343
00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:50,960
Speaker 3: better than fifty percent and hold the opponent is better

344
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,399
Speaker 3: below forty two, that's that's troubling for me. And I

345
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,440
Speaker 3: just think I think you're gonna get a better offensive

346
00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:01,960
Speaker 3: performance from the Bucks. I think as the series goes long,

347
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 3: longer and longer, And I think I said this before

348
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Speaker 3: in the last podcast, the Suns are in trouble. I mean,

349
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 3: you can't get off ofive rebounds, and you can't pick

350
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,640
Speaker 3: up defensive rebounds. In the second half, you're getting dominated

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Speaker 3: in the paint. I just, I honestly think the Bus

352
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Speaker 3: can win this at six.

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Speaker 1: I really do.

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Speaker 3: And I think I said this on the last podcast.

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Speaker 3: You asked me what are the most likely scenarios? I

356
00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:27,400
Speaker 3: thought it was Sons and seven or Bucks and six,

357
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Speaker 3: And I think the bucks can win the next two.

358
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,600
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Speaker 1: All right, let me laminate the other argument, the other

389
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:06,760
Speaker 1: side of this, Brandon. For the series, across four goddamn games,

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00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 1: the Bucks are scoring ninety three point three points per

391
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:16,280
Speaker 1: one hundred possessions in the half court. Ninety three.

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Speaker 5: So here's the problem with that. Ninety three is real bad. However,

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00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 5: the other thing that's real bad is the fact that

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00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 5: the Bucks are getting like twenty extra shots up every game,

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00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:39,119
Speaker 5: and that they've proven to be repeatable and so what happens? Okay,

396
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:43,880
Speaker 5: so yes, what happens if the rebounding and turnover advantage

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00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,719
Speaker 5: isn't as strong and the Bucks still can't score? There

398
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,159
Speaker 5: is that possibility. But what about the other one. What

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00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 5: happens if the Bucks keep getting the turnovers and rebounds

400
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 5: and then don't completely suck on offense. What if they

401
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 5: put up a one h two offensive rating or a

402
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 5: one ten offensive rating actually hit some shots. What if

403
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,680
Speaker 5: that happens and they're still winning on the glass and

404
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 5: getting the turnovers. Now they just won a game by

405
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 5: like twenty five.

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00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 3: And I mean, what happens if Devin Booker doesn't give

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00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 3: you forty Like I meant.

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00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:16,919
Speaker 1: Honestly, if Devin Booker doesn't give you forty, maybe you

409
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 1: move the ball around a little bit and you actually

410
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 1: get everybody involved and that's fair. Yeah, and you generate

411
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 1: more than twenty three three pointers or whatever it is

412
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 1: that they shot in that last game, which was like

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00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 1: if I so there's two things. Justin fan, who's a

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00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 1: great better He's got the insires tool on Action Network.

415
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 1: Justin bet the over on Game four based off of

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00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:43,919
Speaker 1: the fact that pregame Monti Williams was like, we want

417
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 1: to push pace. That's our priority, that's what we want

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00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 1: to do. So he took the over and I was like,

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00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 1: you know, I had the under. I dug it under

420
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,120
Speaker 1: on heat check versus who did that take? Who took

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00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 1: the over that was against me?

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00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 7: Oh?

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00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 1: Was it you? Oh?

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Speaker 3: That's that's I think. Every time me and Fan are

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00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 3: on the same side.

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00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 1: We lose. That's that's weird. You're genuinely like two of

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00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,640
Speaker 1: the best NBA betters. I know that's wild. I certainly

428
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 1: should never get an edge on you. But here's what

429
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 1: was crazy, is like the thinking was right, like, we're

430
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: gonna push pace. Right. They had the slowest pace of

431
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 1: any game in the series. They got ground down. And

432
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 1: some of that's because the offensive rebounds, like that one

433
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 1: was your possession count when they're running clock out, but

434
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,400
Speaker 1: a lot is just like they just slowed down. Here's here.

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00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 1: I think that was the other thing. Brandon's like, well,

436
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,919
Speaker 1: what happens if they hit shots? You've met the Bucks, right, Brandon,

437
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 1: Like you've met the Bucks, Like you know, like we've

438
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 1: seen the Milwaukee Bucks at any point in these play

439
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 1: Like this is what we've talked about every single podcast,

440
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 1: is like we can't trust the Bucks shooting variants because

441
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 1: it never swings the right way. What was wild was

442
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 1: in that last game, the Bucks underperformed wildly and the

443
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 1: Sun Sun overperformed. And there's two ways to interpret all this, right,

444
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 1: Like there's the way that you're talking about, which is like, yeah,

445
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,400
Speaker 1: they couldn't score and they still won. But the other

446
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 1: one is to go if you're making a meal out

447
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 1: of a basketball game, you can't make a meal on

448
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:22,640
Speaker 1: creating turnovers and offensive rebounds because you can't control where

449
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 1: the ball is going to bounce to the other team.

450
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 1: Just couldn't simply try harder. That was a lot of

451
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 1: it is like this is not me like patronizing the Bucks.

452
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 1: Their effort level was exceptional. Like Drew Holiday, I'm doing

453
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 1: a video piece for Action where we're going, I'm actually

454
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: going through what the win percentage differential was play by

455
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 1: play And Drew Holliday's offensive rebound was absolutely freaking massive.

456
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,400
Speaker 1: So was Pat Connington's. Like those guys were the ones

457
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 1: that were like coming up with these huge plays. Those

458
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 1: are things that you can do about, Like it's not

459
00:23:55,119 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 1: just Giannis and Tortois, it's Drew Holliday and Pat Connatent

460
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 1: those are guys that the Suns can just give better

461
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 1: effort at home against and do that. Plus we know

462
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 1: the Suns are going to shoot better at home. We

463
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 1: have a consistent track record of the Sun shooting better

464
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 1: at home. We've got real wrapped up into the idea of, well,

465
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 1: the Sons have been the best road team without really

466
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: factoring like, look, in this series, they're going to have

467
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 1: to hit shots, and they didn't. They just didn't shoot

468
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: as well in Milwaukee, which is to be expected. But

469
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: they're going back to Phoenix for at least two, so

470
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 1: for at least one more. Right. So for me, Brandon,

471
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,360
Speaker 1: I look at it and I go as much as

472
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,159
Speaker 1: I like this Bucks team and think it's amazing what

473
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 1: they've accomplished, and think Giannis has been dominant and their

474
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 1: defense has been great. A lot of this just comes

475
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: down to if we're talking about where the value is,

476
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 1: this is a short price now on the team that

477
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:46,640
Speaker 1: can shoot the ball.

478
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 5: So which price are you referring to? Because I agree

479
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 5: with you, I think I'm trying to tuguing myself into it.

480
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 5: But which which bet are you saying to consider here?

481
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 5: The one to fifty series bet?

482
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think at this point one fifty series, bet,

483
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 1: I know you still have to having to lay the

484
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: minus one fifty. I mean, I guess at this point,

485
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,679
Speaker 1: you just I mean, you guys are better with the

486
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: stuff than I am. I guess at this point the

487
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 1: fair value is just roll over Sons money line. Game five,

488
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 1: Game six. Right.

489
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 5: So here's what I think, And this is gonna just

490
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 5: sound counterintuitive to what I said a little bit ago.

491
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 5: But while I think, clearly, of the three of us,

492
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:34,439
Speaker 5: I think the least of Chris Paul so far this series, clearly,

493
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 5: of the three of us, I'm the least to make

494
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 5: him the finals MVP so far. Having said that, I

495
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 5: don't think the Suns win the championship without Chris Pinals

496
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:51,199
Speaker 5: Chris Paul being the finals MVP, meaning I don't know

497
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 5: how Phoenix comes up with two more wins without Chris

498
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 5: Paul showing up in those two more wins, Like I don't.

499
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 1: Know how I am. We've just gone over the numbers.

500
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 1: He's shown up in three of the four. He had

501
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,479
Speaker 1: a high turnover rate, Brandon, but he didn't play badly

502
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 1: buy He played well with a high turnover rate.

503
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 5: What I'm saying is this, we just saw we saw

504
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 5: the Chris Paul doesn't play well game in Game four,

505
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 5: and I don't like that roadmap for Phoenix if we're

506
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 5: all basically an agreement, like, look, I had some fun

507
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 5: with the Ayton and the Crowder long shots. If Phoenix wins,

508
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 5: it's Booker Chris Paul, I don't buy it being Devin Booker.

509
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 5: For it to be Devin Booker, he's gonna have to

510
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,920
Speaker 5: keep shooting, scoring thirty five to forty whatever in these games.

511
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 5: And if that's the map, Like if I'm Milwaukee and

512
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 5: you tell me a Booker is scoring thirty, thirty five,

513
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 5: forty and it's gonna look a little bit like Game.

514
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 4: Four, that's great. I want that outcome.

515
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 5: I think that if the Suns win the series, the

516
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 5: only way I can see that coming now other than

517
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,400
Speaker 5: Milwaukee just totally choking, yeah, which.

518
00:26:59,280 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 4: Is always possible.

519
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 5: But basically, I need Chris Paul to look like Chris

520
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 5: Paul in some version of him for Phoenix to get

521
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 5: the wins. If he looks like he did in Game

522
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 5: four or I think even Game three, for these last

523
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 5: three games, I don't think it's enough. If the Sums win,

524
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:18,679
Speaker 5: the only reason I can see it happening at this

525
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,479
Speaker 5: point is for Chris Paul to be deserving of the

526
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 5: Finals MVP. So I don't like the minus one to

527
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 5: fifty series. I don't feel good about sixty percent. I

528
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 5: definitely think the Bucks are playing better right now. I

529
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,239
Speaker 5: definitely would take the Bucks on a neutral court. The

530
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 5: only reason that I would take Phoenix is two things.

531
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 5: Number One, they've got home court for Game seven and

532
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:41,919
Speaker 5: home court for Game five, so that's a two to

533
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 5: one advantage. And number two is the Bucks and God

534
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 5: helped me on ever relying on the Bucks to do anything.

535
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 4: Those are the only two reasons.

536
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 5: I don't know how I can talk myself into Phoenix

537
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,919
Speaker 5: winning two out of three games. I can't talk myself

538
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 5: into Milwaukee losing two out of three games because it's

539
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 5: Milwaukee and they're really good at it.

540
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know how you can talk yourself

541
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 3: into Phoenix at minus one point fifty when the other

542
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 3: team is getting every single game to get more possessions.

543
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 3: I just don't. And in a game seven, I want

544
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 3: the team who's gonna get more possessions.

545
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 1: So I just well, I want to I want to

546
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 1: step back on this. Okay, we're really saying that the

547
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:27,440
Speaker 1: biggest key here is now, look four factors from Dean

548
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: Oliver in basketball paper, like the the textbook on basketball stats.

549
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: It's there's an important section in there which is the

550
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 1: second most important stat of the four factors that they

551
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: talk about is as it's an offensive rebound percentage. But

552
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 1: you have to read in between the lines of it.

553
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: It's a really interesting text. It's not offensive rebound percentage

554
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: for you, it's how much you give up Like it's basically,

555
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 1: do you give your opponent a lot of offensive rebounds?

556
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: Which leads to your point, right, which is like, look,

557
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 1: the Suns are giving up all these offensive that's the

558
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 1: second most important stat of the four factors. Yeah, number

559
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 1: one is still affective field goal percentage because you have

560
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: to put the ball on the in basket.

561
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 5: Yeah it is. But but here's the problem. Number one

562
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 5: is the most important. I'm not disagreeing with that, but

563
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 5: it's just Phoenix is losing so many They've had so

564
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 5: many math problems right now. The rebounds are a math problem.

565
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 5: They're not getting enough possessions. The turnovers are a math problem.

566
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 5: They're not getting enough possessions. The free throws are a

567
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 5: math problem. They're not getting enough easy points. The three

568
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 5: pointers are a math problem. They're not getting enough shots

569
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 5: up that are worth more points. Like, think about everything

570
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 5: that we've seen happen in basketball over the last five

571
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 5: or ten years, the over optimizing of everything, the efficiency

572
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 5: izing of everything, has all been about solving those math

573
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 5: problems and like hyper making everything hyper efficient and all

574
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 5: of those math problems other than we're just gonna shoot

575
00:29:58,080 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 5: better than.

576
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 4: You, which, by the way, they it just did by.

577
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 5: Like fourteen percent and lost anyway comfortably by like what

578
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 5: six or eight points?

579
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: I mean, whoa, I mean, we can go back a

580
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: little bit on that, just because like that that was

581
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: a the bus took the lead with what like two

582
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 1: minutes remaining.

583
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 5: Like I'm just saying, it's hard to shoot much better

584
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 5: than an opponent than Phoenix did in that game. But

585
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 5: they lost all of these other math problems, and it's

586
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 5: they're compiling that what math problem can Phoenix win right now?

587
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 5: That's not just we're just gonna shoot twenty percent better

588
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 5: than you that next time.

589
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 1: Well, well, well I want to I want to.

590
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 3: I think the interesting thing is that you mentioned Dean Oliver,

591
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 3: and I believe he broke down to four factors of

592
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 3: success at shooting at forty percent, turnovers at twenty five percent,

593
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 3: rebounding at twenty percent, and free throws at fifteen percent.

594
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 3: So it's like the Suns are winning the shooting, but

595
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 3: they're literally losing everything else.

596
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 1: Well, okay, let's talk about those two things, because I

597
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 1: want to kind of touch on this as well well,

598
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: so of a related note, the Sun's it's I want

599
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 1: to be clear on this. The Sun shot much better

600
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 1: than the Bucks in Game four because the Bucks shot

601
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 1: like garbage, Like yeah, like the Bucks. The Suns even

602
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 1: effective field goal percentage in Game four was fifty nine

603
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 1: point six, which is good. It's better than their Game

604
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 1: one percentage when remember they couldn't shoot at all. Do

605
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: you remember that? Like the Bucks won that three point

606
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: matchup and yet but like Game two was sixty was

607
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 1: sixty point two. I'm sorry their EFG in game four,

608
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: I got this wrong. That was true shooting. Their effective

609
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,960
Speaker 1: field goal percentage in game four was fifty five point eight,

610
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 1: which is lower than sixty point two. It's lower than

611
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 1: most of the games that they they played up until

612
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 1: the Clipper series. The Clippers, obviously, they had a thirty

613
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: eight point four and a fifty point six because there

614
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 1: were some gross ones in there. But my point though

615
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 1: is I don't think that if when I look at

616
00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 1: that shooting performance Brandon, I don't look at as the

617
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: Sun shot the lights out. I think Booker shot the

618
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 1: lights out. And so if you ask me, like, can

619
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 1: they just shoot better? Yeah, I think they can. I

620
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 1: think they can. I think at home the energy level

621
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 1: ramps up, so you cut down on some of that. Now,

622
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 1: let's get into the other thing that you talked about,

623
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 1: which is free throws. I am captain of the Giannis

624
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 1: gets a terrible playoff whistle, Like I just think he

625
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 1: has been hacked and hammered in every series that he's played,

626
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 1: in every series he's lost through the years. I thought

627
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 1: he got a bad whistle in the Brooklyn series. He's

628
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 1: gotten a great whistle outside of Game one. Outside of

629
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: Game one, he's gotten an awesome whistle, and he's hit

630
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 1: free throws. So the margin was six. The Suns were

631
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 1: up late. If we just just chip off a few

632
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 1: of the offensive rebounds, chip off a few of the

633
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 1: fouls in favor of the Bucks, and we get right

634
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: back into either or they're tied or Suns slightly up

635
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: and that's on the road with a not great shooting performance. Yeah, Like,

636
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 1: here's my thing. The Bucks or Sons can win, can

637
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: win the series. I'm not like, there's no way the

638
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 1: Bucks are gonna win. The Sons have got this. I'm

639
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: not worried like I think that. I mean, you know this,

640
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 1: I had like I built a future's position where I'm

641
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 1: good either way. I've added to it is as has

642
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 1: events of warranted throughout the series, and that when I

643
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: saw the good prices, I have hands on both scales.

644
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 1: But I do think that when we're trying to figure

645
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 1: out the value to me, we've got The Sun started

646
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 1: as a series. We started the series off with basically

647
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 1: we talked about this on the preview pod, that the

648
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 1: Sons were considerable favorites. Now jannis Is status was unknown,

649
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: so that we got to remember that, but the Sons

650
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 1: were considerable favorites, but that all the numbers indicated that

651
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 1: this that the books like this series to go at

652
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 1: least six or seven. Yeah, which means that you're you're

653
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: already building in two sons losses into that equation, like

654
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: you're if it gets the six, the Sons have to

655
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 1: have lost two games, so we're right where the books

656
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,439
Speaker 1: basically told us it was going to be. But now

657
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 1: we're getting a substantially better price on Phoenix than we

658
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 1: did at the beginning of the series.

659
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 4: Right, Okay, yeah, I agree. I agree with all of that.

660
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 5: It really is, if I'm looking about the series, I

661
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 5: don't I don't like it.

662
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 4: I don't feel good about it.

663
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,400
Speaker 5: But the play that makes the most sense to me,

664
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 5: just from a betting standpoint, from a numbers standpoint, which

665
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 5: is the way that I ultimately make decisions, I still

666
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 5: like that Chris Paul plus one ninety MVP for the

667
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 5: reason I said because to me, because here's the reason.

668
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 5: If I believe that the Suns can only win the

669
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 5: title if Chris Paul's good enough to win finals MVP,

670
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 5: which I do, then instead of paying sixty, instead of

671
00:34:57,920 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 5: getting sixty percent for the Suns to win the series,

672
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 5: I don't believe in sixty percent.

673
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 4: I don't want to bet that.

674
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 5: I believe somewhere close to fifty, I think, which is

675
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 5: hard because that means that I'm not getting the right

676
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 5: price on Phoenix, and it also means I'm not really

677
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 5: getting much of a nice margin to bet on Milwaukee

678
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:20,359
Speaker 5: or on Giannis for Finals MVP. However, if I bet

679
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,800
Speaker 5: Chris Paul to win Finals MVP, that's an implied thirty

680
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 5: four percent. Now I'm basically just getting two to one

681
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 5: on the Suns to win the title if I'm thoroughly

682
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 5: convinced that the Suns can only win the title if

683
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 5: Chris Paul's good enough for them to win the title.

684
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 5: And now, I don't think the Suns are the better team.

685
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 5: I don't think the Suns are going to win the series.

686
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 5: If I just had to pick one right now, no odds,

687
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,879
Speaker 5: I pick the Bucks. But if you're giving me two

688
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 5: to one chances for the Suns to win, I feel

689
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 5: good about almost two to one chances for the Suns

690
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 5: to win, So raheem. I'm curious what you think, because

691
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 5: I think you feel a strongness about the Bucks. Of

692
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:01,240
Speaker 5: the three of us, do you agree with the logic

693
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 5: that if the Suns win, it needs to be Chris

694
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 5: Paul motivated more than Devin Booker motivated?

695
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 4: And what do you think about the logic of.

696
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 5: If that's the case, is Sons Sons plus one ninety

697
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 5: a price that you have to play.

698
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 3: I agree that it has to be more Chris Paul

699
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 3: motivated than Devin Booker, because I do think Booker going

700
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 3: off like that it kind of, you know, makes the

701
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 3: offense a lot more stagnant, and Chris Paul has to

702
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:32,439
Speaker 3: run the show. But for me, I personally don't want

703
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 3: to play the Sons for the series because I don't

704
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 3: believe they're gonna win the series. I think if you're

705
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 3: gonna play the Suns, I think the value lies in

706
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 3: playing them to win Game five. Them coming home, you know,

707
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 3: they've performed well at home, Like Matt said, they should

708
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 3: be able to clean up some of the offensive rebounds.

709
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 3: They're gonna shoot well. I think that's where the maximum

710
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 3: value is. But I think they can win game four,

711
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 3: and I think they can lose the next two, so

712
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 3: that just I mean, win in game five and lose

713
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 3: next to I really believe in the bucks.

714
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,839
Speaker 5: But if a book actually offered you Sons plus one

715
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 5: ninety to win the series, you still wouldn't want to

716
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 5: play it.

717
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 3: I mean I kind of might have to take it,

718
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,399
Speaker 3: just based on the map, because they have two home

719
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 3: games and they're gonna be.

720
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,359
Speaker 1: Don't don't cave to him. Don't don't cave to him.

721
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 3: But I'm gonna be honest with you.

722
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: I think the Bucks.

723
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 3: I truly believe that the Bucks are gonna win the series.

724
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 3: And that's what, you know, what the thing is. Yeah,

725
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be honest with you. I came into this

726
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 3: series believing that the Sons would have the edge in

727
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 3: the clutch. And I think I said this one the

728
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 3: first NBA Finals preview, I said, I like the Suns

729
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 3: because when push comes to shove, they have Chris Paul

730
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 3: and Devin Booker to be able to hit these mid

731
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 3: range jumpers. But what I did in factor in was

732
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 3: all of the rebounding. I didn't factor in that Chris Middleton,

733
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 3: who hit the game winner against the Nets Game seven

734
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 3: on the roll, would be able to do the same

735
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 3: thing against the Suns. And this team is so battle tested.

736
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:04,720
Speaker 3: Everybody is stepping up, whether it's you know, Pat Connerton

737
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 3: grabbing offensive rebounds, whether it's I think Chris Middleton. It

738
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 3: was seventy three, seventy one, Chris Middleton misses the free

739
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 3: though Lopez tips it in tie game. So it's just

740
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,720
Speaker 3: so many like small plays like that that the Bucks

741
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 3: are making that I just to me, outside of an

742
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 3: otherworldly shooting performance from the Suns and two games for

743
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 3: the I think the Bucks are the better team, and

744
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:33,359
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna win the series. I truly believe it.

745
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 1: And I mean that's we're not for you in the past, right,

746
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 1: Like you've bet series and you've just felt like one

747
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 1: team has the edge, like you bet Raptors twenty nineteen.

748
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 1: You've had other other series where you're just like, I

749
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 1: think this team.

750
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:47,120
Speaker 3: Bucks it, bucks it next this this year, like and

751
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 3: I mean like so it's just like I just kind

752
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 3: of just and sometimes I mean, I you know, we

753
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:53,879
Speaker 3: try to go off the math, but I always kind

754
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 3: of like one of the things I compare myself to

755
00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 3: is a boxer. So you know, Floyd Mayweather, he's gonn

756
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 3: to come in there with the Philly show, but sometimes

757
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 3: if he's fighting a South Paul, he's gonna go in

758
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 3: there with the high guard, and sometimes he's gonna use

759
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 3: his pool counter a lot. And I look at myself

760
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,399
Speaker 3: from that same aspect as a handicapper, to where it's

761
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:16,399
Speaker 3: just like, yeah, I have my models, but I have

762
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,279
Speaker 3: other tools, and I have my feelings and I have

763
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 3: my intuitions, and you know, I use everybody else.

764
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:25,240
Speaker 1: Around me well, you know, part of this is okay,

765
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 1: even if you'd still say it's pretty close that the

766
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:29,839
Speaker 1: Suns can win the.

767
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:31,800
Speaker 3: Series, right, Oh yeah, it's definitely close.

768
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:37,240
Speaker 1: Like let's say sixty forty okay, So that's hi, okay,

769
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 1: So what's your number at thirty?

770
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 3: I think it's probably like fifty five to forty five.

771
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 1: Okay, So you want forty five, okay, let's give him

772
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,240
Speaker 1: forty five On a one hundred dollars bet at plus

773
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:52,359
Speaker 1: one ninety, you're looking at thirty bucks and expected value

774
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars back thirty percent, which is good. It's

775
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 1: it's good EV. But if you don't genuinely like the bet,

776
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 1: I think that kind of like, at what point is

777
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:03,320
Speaker 1: that ev enough for you to take it as a question,

778
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 1: Like I think that's actually like a gender. I it

779
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 1: may just be like, no, there's EV there. I don't care,

780
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:09,839
Speaker 1: like I want. I want every edge that I can get.

781
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 1: I think there's edge there that that's that's how it works.

782
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 1: I do think. So I ran the numbers actually while

783
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: you guys were were talking. If you've got one hundred

784
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 1: bucks at minus one sixty five, which is the series

785
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 1: five money line for the Suns. Uh, you come out

786
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 1: with sixty bucks and sixty one cents. Okay, So if

787
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 1: we roll over the one sixty sixty one and we

788
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: assume that the odds for game six in Milwaukee will

789
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 1: be approximately what they weren't closed for Game four four

790
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 1: and a half, that's a plus one forty one translation.

791
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 1: I'm using all of this via the tools they are

792
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 1: available on Action network dot com. Uh, that comes out

793
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 1: to plus two twenty six Brandon. So you literally the

794
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,800
Speaker 1: even as it goes the value is now the question

795
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 1: the built in there which you would mention is yes,

796
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 1: but the Suns can still lose Game six, win Game

797
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 1: seven Chris Paul wins MVP, and that's your that's your

798
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:13,359
Speaker 1: kind of like your yeah, that that's your coverage there.

799
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 1: So that's really the question is like do you like

800
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 1: a lot of this? Is do you think that the

801
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,360
Speaker 1: Bucks win Game six? For me, where I'm at is

802
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,399
Speaker 1: I absolutely I am heavy on the Suns right now.

803
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,799
Speaker 1: In game five, I like the Suns and the over

804
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 1: in game five. Game six I think is a coin flip.

805
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 1: Game seven is always a coin flip. So we have

806
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 1: like two coin flip games coming out where you know,

807
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 1: the Bucks won the two at home. The first one

808
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 1: was great, one one hundred, Book had a terrible game,

809
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 1: Aiden got in foul trouble, Like that was a disaster

810
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 1: game for Phoenix. We did talk about this on the

811
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 1: last game on the Lost Pod. We said, like the

812
00:41:56,000 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 1: Book game's coming, and we got it, but it came

813
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:02,520
Speaker 1: at the exact same time as the Mid game. That

814
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:05,319
Speaker 1: was the problem. Is like Book went for forty two,

815
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 1: but midwent for forty and Chris Paul had a bad game.

816
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 1: Like this series is so tight, guys, like this is

817
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,320
Speaker 1: like that. That's why I'm actually like, I'm just genuinely

818
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:17,439
Speaker 1: kind of irritated that even still this. I know it's

819
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 1: because the Sunset Home Court, but like the Sons are

820
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 1: minus one fifty still, and I think there's value there

821
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:26,760
Speaker 1: because it's such a short price relative to the pre series.

822
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 5: Let me push back though, on the coin flip thing,

823
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 5: because I don't I don't agree with either.

824
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 4: Of the of what you've labeled coin flips game six.

825
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 5: So to me, if you said of any game remaining,

826
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 5: we don't even know if there will be a game seven.

827
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 5: If you had to pick one team to win any

828
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 5: game remaining, which which team or game would I be

829
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 5: most confident in. For me, it would be Bucks winning

830
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 5: at home in game six, because I think the Bucks

831
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 5: are the better team. And why would I not think

832
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:01,240
Speaker 5: that the better team at home? Probably believe with Scott

833
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:04,839
Speaker 5: Foster roughing by the way, in that scenario, why would

834
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:07,760
Speaker 5: I not think that the team I think is best

835
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:10,439
Speaker 5: in their one remaining home game would be most likely

836
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:12,800
Speaker 5: to win any of the games left?

837
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 1: Then just take what? Then why aren't you if you

838
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:16,080
Speaker 1: think the Bucks are the better team than why aren't

839
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:17,399
Speaker 1: you just taking Bucks plus one twenty five?

840
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 5: I mean, That's That's what I'm trying to figure out

841
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 5: between the do do I take them? Or is there

842
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:26,720
Speaker 5: is there too much value on that Chris Paul idea

843
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:28,799
Speaker 5: to not play? It's what I'm trying to figure out.

844
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 1: Okay, Rahiemy did say you like, you like the Bucks

845
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 1: to win the series, but you like you still like

846
00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 1: the Sons in game five? Do you still like the No?

847
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 1: Because you like to you like.

848
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 3: The value was on the Sons in game five, but

849
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 3: I like the Bucks to win the series.

850
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 1: But you also said that you like Bucks and six, So.

851
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 3: Work that out for I mean, I mean, for me,

852
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 3: I felt like, you know, I've I didn't say I

853
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 3: necessarily like the Bucks and six. I thought that you

854
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:54,799
Speaker 3: asked me what was the most likely scenarios last, and

855
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:56,319
Speaker 3: I said Bucks and six and Sons.

856
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 1: And the reason I ask is Sons to win Game

857
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: five and Bucks to win the series is plus four

858
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 1: seventy five. So if you agree that the Sun should

859
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 1: be favored, if you think there's no way the Suns

860
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 1: lose this game and you still think the Bucks are

861
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 1: the better team and the end that they're gonna win,

862
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 1: why not just take the plus four? Now, this is

863
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 1: this is where we're getting into like we're we're galaxy

864
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:25,359
Speaker 1: braining this a little bit because we're literally saying like, yeah,

865
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 1: they're gonna go down three to two. But I like that,

866
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:29,720
Speaker 1: But I'm very I'm confident for them to win the series.

867
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 1: To bet on them to lose, win, win, like I'm

868
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 1: betting three different outcomes.

869
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 4: You're betting three money lines.

870
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm betting three lines.

871
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 3: But you know what, I've done that in the past,

872
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 3: Like I mean, I mean, it wasn't tied into it

873
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 3: specifically with the prop, but I've definitely bet a team

874
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:49,360
Speaker 3: to win game. I did it with the Brooklyn series.

875
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:53,399
Speaker 3: I took the Nets to win Game five with KD

876
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 3: going off, and then came back and took the Bucks

877
00:44:57,600 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 3: to win the series.

878
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 1: Bucks to win Game five and Bucks to win the

879
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 1: series is plus two ten.

880
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:04,320
Speaker 4: What about Bucks?

881
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 5: Isn't Bucks to win game five but Phoenix to win

882
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:08,839
Speaker 5: the series? Isn't that like nine to one or something?

883
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's nine to one?

884
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know me, I'm hunting for big numbers and

885
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 4: I saw that.

886
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:14,400
Speaker 1: Come to your house and slap the phone out of

887
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 1: your hand. Don't touch that, oh man, don't don't you

888
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 1: dare touch that number? If the Sun's here's I think

889
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 1: the Suns are resilient, like Rhie mentioned how young they are,

890
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 1: and they are. But I like the way that this

891
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:31,280
Speaker 1: team is pretty unflappable, like Cam Johnson doesn't get rattled,

892
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 1: Booker doesn't get rattled, like DeAndre Aiden. I think is

893
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:36,240
Speaker 1: seen a little bit of the hot.

894
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:40,759
Speaker 3: I mean, when have they faced diversity through this whole postseason?

895
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 3: Like to me, I think mighty like and this is

896
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 3: a hot take, but I think many Williams lost in

897
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 3: the series. Like to me, his performance was just as

898
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:56,720
Speaker 3: bad as Chris Paul. He binched Devin Booker. He found

899
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 3: out his own player, and.

900
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 4: It was the Raps couldn't finish the job.

901
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:03,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean he was fouling out if he didn't

902
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 1: if he didn't sit him, man like this, will we

903
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 1: go crazy? I know?

904
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 3: But I mean this is this is this, this is

905
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 3: what drives me crazy about NBA coaches. It's like, the

906
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 3: way Booker was playing, they could have possibly put that

907
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 3: game away. And then also I also had a problem

908
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 3: with him not using timeouts, Like he didn't use any

909
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 3: of those challenges down the stretch, and a lot of

910
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 3: times when he didn't use those challenges, the Bucks were

911
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 3: able to get into something quick and then he left.

912
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 3: He left the game with two timeouts left. So instead

913
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 3: of calling the time out to draw something up to

914
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 3: take the lead from two to you know four or five,

915
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:43,080
Speaker 3: or calling a time out when it's tied to get

916
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,839
Speaker 3: a basket, or calling a timeout down to to get

917
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 3: a basket, they had multiple chances to tie the game

918
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 3: they were down to. I think the DeAndre the Gianni's

919
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:58,760
Speaker 3: black happened, as you know, they scored on that possession

920
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,320
Speaker 3: they were down too, and the Chris Paul turn.

921
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 5: Over happens with like forty seconds left, and they should

922
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:05,839
Speaker 5: have all the time out to set up at two

923
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 5: for a while, and instead they brought up CEP, turned

924
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 5: it over, they got the three on one round out,

925
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 5: and then that was that was game basically.

926
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:12,840
Speaker 1: Yeah.

927
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,919
Speaker 3: So it's just like they had multiple opportunities to tie

928
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 3: the game, he didn't call time out. So it's just

929
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 3: this team hasn't faced any adversity. He dealt with an

930
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:24,279
Speaker 3: injured Lakers team, which they probably would have lost to

931
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 3: based on what we're seeing today. I mean, in this

932
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 3: series with you know, Giannis dominating inside, they probably would

933
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:33,280
Speaker 3: have lost that series. Then they they face a bombed

934
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 3: out and depleted Nuggets team. Then they they faced the Clippers,

935
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 3: who you know, they put up a fight, but they

936
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 3: didn't have a shot without Kawhi Leonard. So it's just

937
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 3: we're expecting this team that has never showed diversity, and

938
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 3: I know they they haven't lost three games in a

939
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 3: row all season, but this Bucks team is battle testing.

940
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 1: I will say they're battle testing. My opinion right now

941
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:03,360
Speaker 1: is that the Milwaukee Bucks are the absolute championship pedigree

942
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 1: equivalent of the Alonzo Morning Gifts, where you're like, well,

943
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 1: that's that's who they are. Like everyone the entire Internet

944
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 1: is shaking their heads like they were tearing up Bud

945
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 1: in that game too. They're tearing up Bud and tearing

946
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 1: up Holiday and like everyone's stomping on the Bucks constantly

947
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 1: wind up winning the game.

948
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 5: It's too too, But isn't this kind of what the

949
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:33,239
Speaker 5: Bucks are though? Like in a weird way, Yanna's doing

950
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 5: the Yanas stuff. Yeah, Chris hitting shots, winning the turnover battle,

951
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:40,720
Speaker 5: doing like all the little coaching advantages that we always

952
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 5: kind of toss out in the playoffs because they don't

953
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 5: work here anymore. Bud, that they're actually happening now, They're

954
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 5: they're winning the turnover like this is this is kind

955
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 5: of what the Bucks are like. For for three years,

956
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 5: the Bucks have been winning every game, dominating the regular season.

957
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 5: And I've said this before, like I keep tuning into

958
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 5: a Bucks gaming, like all right, let's go, let's watch

959
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 5: let's watch the champs, let's watch a title favorite here,

960
00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 5: just just crush someone. But it's a different. It's not

961
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 5: that they don't look good, they just look good different.

962
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:13,040
Speaker 5: They don't look they don't look like the normal.

963
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:14,280
Speaker 4: Great nests that we came to see from like the Warriors.

964
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 1: No, I see how I can't Brandon, I just think, like,

965
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 1: I think this year was different. Like that was actually

966
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 1: why I started betting the Bucks late in the season

967
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:26,399
Speaker 1: to win the title, was because I realized, like, they're

968
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:28,320
Speaker 1: the exact opposite of what they'd in the last two seasons.

969
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 1: The last two seasons, like they led the league in

970
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 1: the most blowouts, Brandon, Like they literally were the if

971
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 1: you remove the star power and like, sure, all that,

972
00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 1: but like they shot a ton of threes. They made

973
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 1: a ton of threes. They were a high volume shooting team.

974
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 1: They were powered by Giannis. They had this awesome defense.

975
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 1: They were only the second team in NBA history to

976
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 1: lead the league in pace and defensive rating, which only

977
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 1: the Warriors in twenty fifteen had done. But this season

978
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:55,600
Speaker 1: it was entirely different because they were trying to figure

979
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 1: out how to play with Drew and they didn't have

980
00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 1: the bench. And what's ironic is just like all of

981
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:04,360
Speaker 1: the struggles were good for them because they're not really

982
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:06,400
Speaker 1: Like it wasn't like, oh, we know we can do

983
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 1: if we just do what we do. The Bucks were like, no,

984
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 1: we have to play. However, we have to play because

985
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 1: like we're just desperate. Like to me, that's like the

986
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:15,440
Speaker 1: big difference this year. It's it's interesting that you I

987
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,320
Speaker 1: don't think you're wrong, but I think it's very interesting

988
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:20,280
Speaker 1: that like you and I can watch as much basketball

989
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:22,920
Speaker 1: as we have and you come away being like they

990
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 1: are never really, which I think is like what most

991
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 1: people think. And like when I watched them, I was

992
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:29,760
Speaker 1: always just like, God, the Bucks just fucking slaughter these teams.

993
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 1: Like their performances versus the Nets this year were dominant.

994
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:36,839
Speaker 5: Well, I think, to me, it's a numbers test, eye

995
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 5: test thing. It's to me, like, I'm not disagreeing with

996
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 5: any of the numbers. You said they blue teams out,

997
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:45,240
Speaker 5: they have all the ratings. I knew all that. That's

998
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:47,360
Speaker 5: why then I would watch the game and be like,

999
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:51,280
Speaker 5: all right, Warriors, somebody just like rain fire on someone,

1000
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 5: run them off the court. But like the Bucks version

1001
00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 5: of raining fire is what we're watching. It's shutting it

1002
00:50:56,960 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 5: down on defense. It's it's like not turning it over

1003
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 5: for four quarters. It's it's you know, dominating the glass.

1004
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:07,799
Speaker 5: It's not necessarily like, oh my god, Steph just put

1005
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,760
Speaker 5: up seventeen and three minutes and everyone in the stands

1006
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:13,760
Speaker 5: is crying right now, Like it's just a different version

1007
00:51:13,760 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 5: of that. And then I will say this too if

1008
00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 5: it helps give context to me. What we're watching from

1009
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,360
Speaker 5: the Bucksteer right now and the way that they're winning

1010
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:24,239
Speaker 5: is similar, I think to what we saw from the

1011
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:26,760
Speaker 5: Lakers winning in the Bubble last year, which I felt

1012
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 5: similarly to. I never really felt like, Wow, what an

1013
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:34,839
Speaker 5: awesome champion team. This team is just crushing everyone. It

1014
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:38,800
Speaker 5: was more like a boa constrictor that kind of slowly

1015
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:43,080
Speaker 5: moved in after Game one, slowly started constricting, and by

1016
00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 5: Blaut game three was just like, oh my god, the

1017
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 5: other team just has nothing. They can't do anything, they

1018
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 5: can't score. I mean, it's a different kind of dominance.

1019
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 1: But they had. They had forty five double digit wins

1020
00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen, thirty eight in twenty twenty, and this season,

1021
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 1: in a down year, they had twenty nine, which was

1022
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:02,880
Speaker 1: more than the Nets and the six series. It was

1023
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:05,319
Speaker 1: the most in the Eastern Conference. I know you're saying

1024
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:07,720
Speaker 1: like this, and I get you're saying like that's another number,

1025
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 1: but again, like for me, that was I mean, that's

1026
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:11,000
Speaker 1: part of it is the better is like you, That's

1027
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:12,360
Speaker 1: what was interesting about this year is you used to

1028
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 1: be able to basically say the Bucks are at home

1029
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 1: versus an East team, and they are are they're uh

1030
00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:19,840
Speaker 1: less than a fifteen point favorite, and you just hammered

1031
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:21,919
Speaker 1: it every time and this year like that wasn't working.

1032
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:23,799
Speaker 1: That's what's really interesting is like there have it, I

1033
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 1: mean a lot of it. We can go through all

1034
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 1: the injuries and I think that's fair to talk about,

1035
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:30,440
Speaker 1: but at the end of it, they're having their best season.

1036
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,719
Speaker 1: They've gotten the furthest in the season when they they've

1037
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 1: been least impressive, because like you said, like they just

1038
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 1: I'll say this, they just hang around, man.

1039
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 4: Like they just hang yeah yeah, and I just I.

1040
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:46,320
Speaker 1: And that's like, that's probably the best argument for Raheem

1041
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:49,360
Speaker 1: honestly is that they're just gonna like they're just gonna

1042
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:51,560
Speaker 1: wait you out. They're just gonna wait the Suns out.

1043
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:53,920
Speaker 1: They're just gonna hang around and hang around and in

1044
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 1: the end, the Suns are not gonna have anything left.

1045
00:52:57,200 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 1: What's the boxing comparison, right, I need a box or comparison?

1046
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 3: Man, This is this is tough. I mean I was

1047
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:06,840
Speaker 3: thinking of football, Like to me, they remind me of

1048
00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:11,000
Speaker 3: almost like the the two thousand Ravens, Like it's just

1049
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:13,840
Speaker 3: it's just ugly. I mean, they got Trent Dilfer at quarterback,

1050
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 3: but the defense would just slow you down. And it's just,

1051
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:20,120
Speaker 3: you know, it doesn't take much like, but.

1052
00:53:20,239 --> 00:53:23,080
Speaker 4: Who's Who's Trent Dilfer in this scenario? Is that Drew?

1053
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:23,520
Speaker 4: For me?

1054
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:26,600
Speaker 1: It's honest, because neither one of them have a bag?

1055
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:29,280
Speaker 4: Okay, Okay.

1056
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 5: So I have an observation that I think I might

1057
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:34,920
Speaker 5: be seeing that what I think maybe lead to an

1058
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 5: over underplay. I don't do a lot of over underplays,

1059
00:53:37,600 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 5: so I want to run it by the two of you.

1060
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:41,480
Speaker 5: Tell me if you think that what I think I'm

1061
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 5: seeing is maybe happening, and if it is, is that

1062
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:47,920
Speaker 5: an angle that we can play. So where I'm coming

1063
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:51,520
Speaker 5: from is I'm watching Brook Lopez closely because I keep

1064
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:54,359
Speaker 5: playing Brook Lopez props. God help me. I don't know why,

1065
00:53:54,520 --> 00:53:56,480
Speaker 5: but I'm in on it. I got series long stuff.

1066
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 5: I have to watch him. And what I've seen a

1067
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:02,439
Speaker 5: couple games in a row now, Brooke plays a whole

1068
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 5: bunch in the first half, does a bunch of Brook things,

1069
00:54:05,520 --> 00:54:07,479
Speaker 5: and then they completely go away in the second half.

1070
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 5: And in Game three, I thought that the reason for

1071
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:14,359
Speaker 5: that was because Ayton gotten foul of trouble. Ayton was out,

1072
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:16,880
Speaker 5: so then they just put Brook out too, played small

1073
00:54:16,880 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 5: and kind of matched with it. I thought it was

1074
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:21,240
Speaker 5: a mistake, but I thought that's why Brooke wasn't playing.

1075
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 5: Here's now what I think maybe, So I said, I

1076
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 5: went back and watched that game one, when the Suns

1077
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:30,240
Speaker 5: were way up, we had like a whole fourth quarter

1078
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 5: of kind of inconsequential play. The Bucks kept making a

1079
00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:34,239
Speaker 5: little bit of a run, getting it back to ten

1080
00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:37,840
Speaker 5: or twelve. What the Bucks did was they put Giannis

1081
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:40,279
Speaker 5: at center. They put all the shooters out, and they ran.

1082
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 5: And watching back, I was kind of like, you know,

1083
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:45,640
Speaker 5: I wonder if they sort of found something in that

1084
00:54:45,680 --> 00:54:48,560
Speaker 5: little stretch. Not that it's shocking that, oh my gosh,

1085
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:51,680
Speaker 5: Giannis at center might actually be good. Here's what I'm wondering,

1086
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:55,600
Speaker 5: the way that they're playing the lineups, with Brooke playing

1087
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:57,919
Speaker 5: so much in the first half and then going away

1088
00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:02,640
Speaker 5: in the second half. Is this a conscious strategy? And

1089
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:06,000
Speaker 5: I know that's about Bud, so just just go with me.

1090
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:12,160
Speaker 5: Here is Milwaukee banging around and really playing physical, tough,

1091
00:55:12,840 --> 00:55:16,640
Speaker 5: wear you out in the first half, and then saying okay,

1092
00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:19,440
Speaker 5: we got you on the ropes. Now we've been banging

1093
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 5: you on the boards. We got Brooke and PJ and Yannis,

1094
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:26,319
Speaker 5: and now now we're gonna speed up the tempo. We're

1095
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 5: gonna get our absolutely lethal transition offense. We're gonna unleash Giannis,

1096
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:33,239
Speaker 5: who's been kind of saving himself a little bit, and

1097
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 5: now we're gonna bring it to in the second half.

1098
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 5: That's what I feel like I've been seeing. I'm curious

1099
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 5: if you feel like you've seen anything like that, and

1100
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:42,480
Speaker 5: if it is, is there an angle there.

1101
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:45,759
Speaker 1: The third quarter? Overhit in the in three of the four,

1102
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:49,400
Speaker 1: with Game four being the only one where it didn't. Right,

1103
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:50,799
Speaker 1: Did it hit over in that game?

1104
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:52,439
Speaker 4: I don't think so. I think it was like fifty four,

1105
00:55:52,520 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 4: so I feel.

1106
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:57,280
Speaker 1: Like, yes, it just slid under. I think you're onto something.

1107
00:55:57,520 --> 00:55:59,759
Speaker 1: Here's what's the Here's like the ten thousand foot view

1108
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:02,720
Speaker 1: of it. They get killed in the eight and Lopez minutes.

1109
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:06,320
Speaker 1: For the series, they're minus eleven. In the last two games,

1110
00:56:06,360 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 1: they're minus nine. The Bucks are when Brooks on the

1111
00:56:10,040 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 1: floor versus eighten in the last two games, which was

1112
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:18,400
Speaker 1: thirty five minutes when Brooke was off the court, and

1113
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:22,879
Speaker 1: Aighton was on court, the Suns got outscored by twenty

1114
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:26,719
Speaker 1: three and a half points per hundred possessions. Like they

1115
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:29,520
Speaker 1: definitely are are I think going to it. I wouldn't

1116
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:32,960
Speaker 1: necessarily disagree with it, except like I can't look at

1117
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:38,400
Speaker 1: any sort of real way that Brooks play is causing

1118
00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 1: issues that would soften them up, right, Like I get

1119
00:56:42,640 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 1: the size factor, but they're still getting killed on the

1120
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 1: offensive rebounds anyway, Like if anything in the offensive rebound

1121
00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:51,200
Speaker 1: rate has been I think higher when Brook's been when

1122
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 1: it's been on the bench.

1123
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:54,759
Speaker 5: I think I think in the second half it's been

1124
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:57,240
Speaker 5: higher too, So that doesn't fit well with the idea.

1125
00:56:58,480 --> 00:56:58,640
Speaker 1: Now.

1126
00:56:58,719 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 3: The interesting thing is just looked up the pace for

1127
00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 3: the last two games. The first half pace was around

1128
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:06,960
Speaker 3: ninety six possessions and the last I think that was

1129
00:57:07,040 --> 00:57:09,719
Speaker 3: ninety ninety five possessions. In the last game, second half

1130
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:12,799
Speaker 3: pace was around ninety eight, and it was consistent in

1131
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:13,920
Speaker 3: three as well.

1132
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:15,720
Speaker 4: So it's a little bit.

1133
00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:18,840
Speaker 1: So for me the over under I'm going with the

1134
00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 1: over in game five. And the reason I like the

1135
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:25,560
Speaker 1: oh because like I've been I've been carefully playing these

1136
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 1: it's dropped. It's down to two eighteen the last time

1137
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:33,200
Speaker 1: I saw it. It's currently and a half at MGM too,

1138
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:35,520
Speaker 1: eighteen and a half. So I like the over there

1139
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:37,080
Speaker 1: for a number of reasons. One, I just think the

1140
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:38,520
Speaker 1: Suns are going to play a big number, Like I'll

1141
00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:42,160
Speaker 1: probably play the Suns team total two as as a

1142
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:45,200
Speaker 1: way to really reinforce that I think they're gonna shoot better.

1143
00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:47,760
Speaker 1: I think that many williams, hey we have to play faster,

1144
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 1: we'll actually get through to them in this one. They're

1145
00:57:50,360 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 1: gonna be desperate, they'll play faster, they'll play with more,

1146
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:55,160
Speaker 1: with more edge. So I think that that leads into that.

1147
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:58,840
Speaker 1: So and the other thing is if I may just

1148
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:00,880
Speaker 1: now I'm thinking about it, may just go in more

1149
00:58:00,920 --> 00:58:03,320
Speaker 1: on the Sun's team total, because what I think probably

1150
00:58:03,360 --> 00:58:07,520
Speaker 1: happens is the Bucks shoot badly again on the road, right,

1151
00:58:07,640 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 1: like they have another game where they shoot terribly, and

1152
00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:13,040
Speaker 1: the Suns just run a lot more off the missus

1153
00:58:13,480 --> 00:58:15,920
Speaker 1: and they get some of the transition points back, Like

1154
00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 1: even if they don't, even if they get they're gonna

1155
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:21,200
Speaker 1: lose the transition game. But even if they only lose

1156
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 1: it by five versus like losing it by like nineteen

1157
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:25,960
Speaker 1: or whatever, then They're in a much better spot, so

1158
00:58:26,080 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 1: I think I'm just gonna play the Sun's team total over.

1159
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that makes sense.

1160
00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:33,920
Speaker 5: It makes sense with what you've been saying, with your

1161
00:58:33,920 --> 00:58:35,840
Speaker 5: position of how you feel about the Suns and how

1162
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:38,400
Speaker 5: you feel about Game five and where the series is heading,

1163
00:58:38,440 --> 00:58:40,360
Speaker 5: I think that that makes a lot of sense to

1164
00:58:40,400 --> 00:58:42,960
Speaker 5: play that position with the Suns over of how things

1165
00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:46,920
Speaker 5: are shaping on. I want to bring up props. So

1166
00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:49,680
Speaker 5: we talked about series long props last time. I did

1167
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:52,720
Speaker 5: not write seventeen hundred words refreshing the odds on all

1168
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:54,120
Speaker 5: the series props for this time.

1169
00:58:54,840 --> 00:58:56,320
Speaker 4: But I want to bring up one.

1170
00:58:56,160 --> 00:58:59,200
Speaker 5: That we talked about on the pod, which was series

1171
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:01,520
Speaker 5: leader in a set. And we've talked about Drew Holiday

1172
00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 5: versus Chris Paul. So going into the last game, Chris

1173
00:59:04,320 --> 00:59:05,880
Speaker 5: Paul had the lead by one over Holiday.

1174
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:07,200
Speaker 4: It's clearly gonna be one of those two.

1175
00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 5: They both had seven, so Chris Paul still has a

1176
00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 5: lead by one, and going into the last game, I

1177
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:15,920
Speaker 5: forget the exact line. Drew Holliday was something like plus

1178
00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:18,480
Speaker 5: one fifteen. Chris Paul is something like minus one twenty.

1179
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:21,080
Speaker 5: So Chris Paul was a slight favorite. He was a

1180
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:24,840
Speaker 5: head by one. He's still had by one. Currently, here's

1181
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:26,920
Speaker 5: what happened to the line, and I don't understand it.

1182
00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 5: Drew Holiday has fallen all the way to plus one

1183
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:32,200
Speaker 5: eighty five. Chris Paul is now a minus two to

1184
00:59:32,240 --> 00:59:37,680
Speaker 5: twenty five favorite. So guys, what did the book see

1185
00:59:37,760 --> 00:59:40,760
Speaker 5: from game four on a game where they had the

1186
00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:44,160
Speaker 5: exact tame number of assists? That was like, Okay, now

1187
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:48,320
Speaker 5: that Chris Paul has his ginormous one assist edge, he

1188
00:59:48,360 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 5: should be a sixty nine percent favorite to definitely leave

1189
00:59:51,560 --> 00:59:54,240
Speaker 5: the series and assists. How is Drew Holiday not not

1190
00:59:54,520 --> 00:59:55,720
Speaker 5: significant value here?

1191
00:59:55,920 --> 00:59:57,760
Speaker 1: Well, look at the look at the broader picture, right,

1192
00:59:58,000 --> 01:00:01,920
Speaker 1: So we agree Son's minus one fifty feels heavy, yes,

1193
01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 1: based off of how close the series is.

1194
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:07,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, so, like the.

1195
01:00:07,600 --> 01:00:10,439
Speaker 1: Books are incentivizing you to take the bucks and they're

1196
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:13,800
Speaker 1: incentivizing you to fake Chris Paul. Like they're like, that's

1197
01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:16,360
Speaker 1: what they're doing, Brandon, Like at least bet MGM and

1198
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:18,479
Speaker 1: I haven't seen anything different at the other books either,

1199
01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:23,200
Speaker 1: Like the the book bakers are definitely like, yeah, that's fine,

1200
01:00:23,240 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 1: take take your holiday, take the bucks. Yep, oh yeah,

1201
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:28,120
Speaker 1: look at hey, they want two games in a row,

1202
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:32,560
Speaker 1: Chris Paul looks terrible. He'll get this juicy number for you,

1203
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:36,560
Speaker 1: and they're they're good being like, no, we like Chris

1204
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:39,640
Speaker 1: Paul and we like the Suns, Like that's.

1205
01:00:40,320 --> 01:00:41,160
Speaker 4: But I agree with that.

1206
01:00:41,280 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 5: But why can't Chris Paul put up twenty two and

1207
01:00:43,640 --> 01:00:45,720
Speaker 5: eight and o WN twenty two and nine, Like that's

1208
01:00:45,720 --> 01:00:48,439
Speaker 5: a Chris Paul line, that's a totally normal Chris Paul game.

1209
01:00:48,800 --> 01:00:52,640
Speaker 5: The Suns win, Drew Holiday puts up fifteen points and

1210
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:55,320
Speaker 5: nine or ten assists like he's done and pretty much

1211
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:58,840
Speaker 5: all the other games on three for fifteen shooting, and that's.

1212
01:00:58,640 --> 01:01:01,880
Speaker 4: Why the Bucks lose? Like why why can't that happen?

1213
01:01:01,920 --> 01:01:03,720
Speaker 5: All he has to do is have one more assists

1214
01:01:03,720 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 5: the rest the way, and he's been doing that for Like,

1215
01:01:06,680 --> 01:01:09,240
Speaker 5: Chris Paul still seven games in a row now has

1216
01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:12,720
Speaker 5: yet to hit double digit assists, and Drew Holliday has

1217
01:01:12,760 --> 01:01:16,400
Speaker 5: not had below seven, I think in like like weeks

1218
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:17,640
Speaker 5: at this point, I think since.

1219
01:01:17,560 --> 01:01:21,280
Speaker 1: Early series, right, but like he also he only got

1220
01:01:21,280 --> 01:01:26,840
Speaker 1: to nine in Game three, the one game where the

1221
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:30,560
Speaker 1: Bucks put up a one to twenty score, right, so

1222
01:01:31,880 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 1: he had nine. He had nine in game one right

1223
01:01:34,360 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 1: when that was the game where the Bucks shot really

1224
01:01:36,000 --> 01:01:39,440
Speaker 1: well from three right. So to me, this is the

1225
01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:42,040
Speaker 1: danger Brandon, like if you if you want to know,

1226
01:01:42,160 --> 01:01:44,000
Speaker 1: like if it's got value, like sure, like you laid

1227
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:46,320
Speaker 1: out all the reasons the reason I personally won't bet it.

1228
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:50,960
Speaker 1: To get assists, you got to have guys make shots.

1229
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 1: And we're not just talking jumpers here, we're talking layups.

1230
01:01:53,840 --> 01:01:57,080
Speaker 1: My man, like the Bucks miss layups, like.

1231
01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:01,200
Speaker 5: Can't miss his own layup though he can't assist himself.

1232
01:02:01,200 --> 01:02:04,240
Speaker 5: So we're out on that one at least, right right.

1233
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 1: Here's the other thing I would ask you a question

1234
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:09,880
Speaker 1: two we all agree Chris Paul looked tired. Yeah, Drew's

1235
01:02:09,960 --> 01:02:14,640
Speaker 1: tired too, like he's he's exhausted. And I do, And

1236
01:02:14,680 --> 01:02:16,240
Speaker 1: part of it is I do wonder like, look, the

1237
01:02:16,240 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 1: more the series goes, look at what this is turning into,

1238
01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:25,440
Speaker 1: like Janice attacks Reset, Chris attacks Jannis rebound, Chris attacks Yannis,

1239
01:02:25,520 --> 01:02:29,480
Speaker 1: Rebound Jannis Chris pick and roll, Like it's becoming Yannis

1240
01:02:29,520 --> 01:02:35,320
Speaker 1: and Chris versus Booker and Paul right with the other

1241
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:38,400
Speaker 1: guys in there. And I feel like there will be

1242
01:02:38,480 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 1: less opportunities as this game, like especially if it gets it.

1243
01:02:41,840 --> 01:02:44,560
Speaker 1: Here's the real danger. Chris will pick up like seven

1244
01:02:44,600 --> 01:02:48,560
Speaker 1: assists in his sleep, even in like a nasty game seven,

1245
01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:52,200
Speaker 1: I would still probably bet that Chris Paul would have

1246
01:02:52,280 --> 01:02:55,320
Speaker 1: over six assists. His lion will be higher, But I

1247
01:02:55,360 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 1: would say that I would think it should be bet

1248
01:02:57,320 --> 01:03:02,000
Speaker 1: lower because game sevens are rock fights. But I feel

1249
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:03,880
Speaker 1: like Chris Paul would just pick him, like just randomly

1250
01:03:03,920 --> 01:03:05,720
Speaker 1: pick him because one they have more shooters and he

1251
01:03:05,800 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 1: just finds ways. Drew's a really good passer and a

1252
01:03:08,240 --> 01:03:10,200
Speaker 1: really good point guard. But I don't feel the same

1253
01:03:10,200 --> 01:03:11,760
Speaker 1: way about Drew Holliday, where it's like if he gets

1254
01:03:11,760 --> 01:03:14,080
Speaker 1: the game seven, I can see Chris Paul having eight

1255
01:03:14,560 --> 01:03:16,680
Speaker 1: and even the Bucks winning and Drew Hollidy having like

1256
01:03:16,720 --> 01:03:20,320
Speaker 1: three five, right, and then like that's your differential. I'm

1257
01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:22,080
Speaker 1: not saying it's not it doesn't have value, because like

1258
01:03:22,080 --> 01:03:25,360
Speaker 1: you're right that when you objectively look at it, there's

1259
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:27,720
Speaker 1: a bunch of reasons for this. But like we said,

1260
01:03:27,760 --> 01:03:30,320
Speaker 1: like the context of the series, like I can't really

1261
01:03:30,320 --> 01:03:31,920
Speaker 1: get there. I do have a fun one for you

1262
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:32,480
Speaker 1: for game five.

1263
01:03:33,200 --> 01:03:35,560
Speaker 4: Okay, what do you got Chris.

1264
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:40,120
Speaker 1: Paul to commit five plus turnovers? Is plus four fifty. Wow.

1265
01:03:40,800 --> 01:03:43,560
Speaker 4: Interesting at home too at home?

1266
01:03:44,000 --> 01:03:47,440
Speaker 1: So like, I like that a lot. So if you

1267
01:03:47,480 --> 01:03:49,400
Speaker 1: want to if if you want to bet that Chris.

1268
01:03:49,760 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 1: The problem is Chris Paul has been playing badly. You

1269
01:03:52,520 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 1: got plus four fifty for the turnovers to say that

1270
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:56,959
Speaker 1: he makes it three games in a row?

1271
01:03:57,480 --> 01:03:59,200
Speaker 4: Are there? Is it only five?

1272
01:03:59,360 --> 01:03:59,440
Speaker 1: Like?

1273
01:03:59,520 --> 01:04:01,880
Speaker 3: Is there a I mean they have they have a

1274
01:04:01,920 --> 01:04:04,520
Speaker 3: two and a half at minus one thirty five. If

1275
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:07,840
Speaker 3: you were more conservative like me, and you can probably.

1276
01:04:07,840 --> 01:04:11,000
Speaker 5: I will say too, I've been playing a few times.

1277
01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:16,840
Speaker 5: Chris Middleton's road home splits on turnovers are massive. Chris

1278
01:04:16,880 --> 01:04:20,280
Speaker 5: Middleton's turnovers go way up on the road, So that

1279
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:23,760
Speaker 5: would be to me five five CP turnovers is too

1280
01:04:23,800 --> 01:04:27,160
Speaker 5: much for me to bet on. But Chris Middleton's road turnovers,

1281
01:04:27,280 --> 01:04:28,880
Speaker 5: especially if it gets to a game seven and then

1282
01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:31,200
Speaker 5: you get the pressure of everything too, That's definitely a

1283
01:04:31,240 --> 01:04:34,080
Speaker 5: spot that I've been been hitting with consistency lately.

1284
01:04:34,880 --> 01:04:37,320
Speaker 1: Man, bet MGM will let you put turnovers into the

1285
01:04:37,680 --> 01:04:41,520
Speaker 1: single game parlay. That sucks? Oh man, yeah, something for that,

1286
01:04:42,040 --> 01:04:44,600
Speaker 1: because I was like, ooh, you could do bucks to

1287
01:04:44,680 --> 01:04:46,240
Speaker 1: win and Chris Paul to have four.

1288
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:48,120
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, that's probably.

1289
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:49,960
Speaker 1: Why the turnovers.

1290
01:04:50,080 --> 01:04:52,600
Speaker 4: I'll say this about the Drew Holiday Chris Paul assist thing.

1291
01:04:52,640 --> 01:04:55,480
Speaker 5: I think the most convincing argument that I feel from

1292
01:04:55,480 --> 01:05:00,360
Speaker 5: you against Holiday is that that that Middleton Yan pick

1293
01:05:00,400 --> 01:05:03,360
Speaker 5: and roll is getting more and more run and now

1294
01:05:03,400 --> 01:05:06,040
Speaker 5: the balls out of Holiday's hands and and you know

1295
01:05:06,760 --> 01:05:09,000
Speaker 5: he's he's playing like the wing at that point and

1296
01:05:09,040 --> 01:05:10,600
Speaker 5: not getting the same opportunities.

1297
01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:12,800
Speaker 4: I do find some hesitation there.

1298
01:05:13,120 --> 01:05:16,360
Speaker 5: I still just feel like at at plus one eighty five,

1299
01:05:16,920 --> 01:05:19,560
Speaker 5: but like you said, if you're going to be objective

1300
01:05:19,600 --> 01:05:23,040
Speaker 5: and just play the numbers, well that's literally my thing. Like,

1301
01:05:23,080 --> 01:05:26,160
Speaker 5: that's literally why we're at twenty two percent ROI props

1302
01:05:26,160 --> 01:05:27,640
Speaker 5: for the year is.

1303
01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:30,160
Speaker 4: Just only playing the numbers. It's just the numbers.

1304
01:05:30,160 --> 01:05:34,520
Speaker 5: So it's it's weird because I come away right now.

1305
01:05:34,920 --> 01:05:37,760
Speaker 5: I think that the two best series prices I like

1306
01:05:37,880 --> 01:05:40,680
Speaker 5: right now are two bets that I genuinely don't feel

1307
01:05:40,760 --> 01:05:43,600
Speaker 5: good about but that the numbers feel great about, which

1308
01:05:43,640 --> 01:05:46,200
Speaker 5: is that Drew Holiday plus one eighty five and the

1309
01:05:46,280 --> 01:05:49,240
Speaker 5: Chris Paul plus one ninety Finals MVP. Both of those

1310
01:05:49,320 --> 01:05:53,360
Speaker 5: to me are numbers plays. But I trust the numbers,

1311
01:05:53,440 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 5: and I will trust the numbers over like Rahim, you

1312
01:05:56,160 --> 01:05:59,920
Speaker 5: said sometimes I'm just gonna trust my instinct. I go

1313
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:02,880
Speaker 5: the opposite. If I don't know, I will trust the numbers.

1314
01:06:03,000 --> 01:06:04,720
Speaker 5: So I think I have to play those two.

1315
01:06:05,200 --> 01:06:05,480
Speaker 4: Right am.

1316
01:06:05,520 --> 01:06:08,120
Speaker 1: I wanna ask you you're based on your conviction? Are

1317
01:06:08,120 --> 01:06:10,240
Speaker 1: you gonna put in have you put in something big

1318
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:11,640
Speaker 1: on the bucks? Are you gonna put something big on

1319
01:06:11,640 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 1: the bucks?

1320
01:06:12,360 --> 01:06:16,360
Speaker 3: I actually lost big on the Suns last night because

1321
01:06:16,360 --> 01:06:18,480
Speaker 3: I actually just watched the game. But I'm I'm kind

1322
01:06:18,480 --> 01:06:21,520
Speaker 3: of taking a little break right now, but I watched

1323
01:06:21,520 --> 01:06:23,000
Speaker 3: the game, and I'm like, the Sons are gonna win

1324
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:26,840
Speaker 3: his game, and like I caught the Sons of like

1325
01:06:26,920 --> 01:06:28,880
Speaker 3: plus one fifty or something like that.

1326
01:06:28,720 --> 01:06:33,640
Speaker 1: Like when they were when they were tied. I live

1327
01:06:33,760 --> 01:06:37,960
Speaker 1: bet minus one and a half Sons at a plus

1328
01:06:38,040 --> 01:06:41,200
Speaker 1: number because I was like, yeah, I saw that, and

1329
01:06:41,800 --> 01:06:44,640
Speaker 1: and I was I was like feeling like the smartest

1330
01:06:44,640 --> 01:06:47,960
Speaker 1: man in the world, up by nine in the fourth quarter,

1331
01:06:48,240 --> 01:06:50,320
Speaker 1: and then not only do I lose that one by

1332
01:06:50,320 --> 01:06:52,440
Speaker 1: I lose four and a half as well. That was

1333
01:06:52,480 --> 01:06:54,400
Speaker 1: I will say I was pretty annoyed that, like the

1334
01:06:54,440 --> 01:06:57,240
Speaker 1: Sons couldn't hit one back door three for us there.

1335
01:06:57,680 --> 01:07:00,840
Speaker 1: I was like, just just hit the three and then

1336
01:07:00,880 --> 01:07:02,800
Speaker 1: give up the inbound and then we're done.

1337
01:07:02,920 --> 01:07:05,800
Speaker 3: And you know, the thing that was most inexplicable about

1338
01:07:05,800 --> 01:07:08,280
Speaker 3: that game was that they were in the penalty for

1339
01:07:08,360 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 3: like nine minutes in the fourth quarter. Yeah, and it

1340
01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:15,400
Speaker 3: just I didn't get one Chris Paul swing swing through move.

1341
01:07:16,840 --> 01:07:19,040
Speaker 1: He had one, but they just a lot of it

1342
01:07:19,120 --> 01:07:20,520
Speaker 1: was I think that when Booker came back in, it

1343
01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 1: was like, we're going back to the Booker Show.

1344
01:07:22,360 --> 01:07:26,160
Speaker 5: So so we've been all around Game five, We've been

1345
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:30,280
Speaker 5: all around the series. So to help our our dedicated

1346
01:07:30,320 --> 01:07:32,800
Speaker 5: listeners who have listened to us argue for an hour,

1347
01:07:33,560 --> 01:07:37,240
Speaker 5: let's let's narrow it down here. So what give me

1348
01:07:37,280 --> 01:07:40,440
Speaker 5: and I'll make my own two best bat for Game five?

1349
01:07:40,720 --> 01:07:43,280
Speaker 5: No props, what's your best Game five pick?

1350
01:07:43,440 --> 01:07:43,880
Speaker 4: Right now?

1351
01:07:44,080 --> 01:07:46,360
Speaker 1: Sun's last three and a half. They're gonna win this game.

1352
01:07:46,520 --> 01:07:47,479
Speaker 4: Rahiem, what do you think?

1353
01:07:48,040 --> 01:07:48,320
Speaker 5: Shit?

1354
01:07:50,920 --> 01:07:52,760
Speaker 1: I can tell though that this was interesting, is like

1355
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:56,520
Speaker 1: you're very you're you're very strong on the Bucks, but

1356
01:07:56,600 --> 01:07:58,320
Speaker 1: you still don't know what Game five is going to do.

1357
01:07:59,160 --> 01:08:01,600
Speaker 1: Exactly know that, and you know that if the Suns

1358
01:08:01,640 --> 01:08:05,200
Speaker 1: win Game five, there's no way to feel good about

1359
01:08:05,240 --> 01:08:06,560
Speaker 1: the Bucks winning two and two straight.

1360
01:08:06,920 --> 01:08:08,680
Speaker 3: If the Suns win Game five, I feel like the

1361
01:08:08,720 --> 01:08:11,400
Speaker 3: Suns are just doing what they're expected to do, true,

1362
01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:14,280
Speaker 3: and I would I would have I would have less

1363
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:17,040
Speaker 3: problem betting the Bucks to win the series in that spot.

1364
01:08:17,160 --> 01:08:17,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's gonna say it.

1365
01:08:17,960 --> 01:08:19,760
Speaker 5: Like you said, if the Sun's win Game five, I

1366
01:08:19,800 --> 01:08:21,839
Speaker 5: think we're heem will about the Bucks to win the series.

1367
01:08:22,200 --> 01:08:24,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, but right now, there's no value on taking the

1368
01:08:24,800 --> 01:08:28,240
Speaker 3: Bucks right now with them having at plus one twenty five.

1369
01:08:28,520 --> 01:08:30,439
Speaker 3: So I think that's my struggle. So I think I'm

1370
01:08:30,439 --> 01:08:34,200
Speaker 3: gonna have to go with you and say Sons minus

1371
01:08:34,200 --> 01:08:37,040
Speaker 3: three and a half four for Game five, because because

1372
01:08:37,280 --> 01:08:39,519
Speaker 3: that's what they're supposed to do. Even though I have

1373
01:08:39,560 --> 01:08:41,040
Speaker 3: this strong feeling on the Bucks, but I think that's

1374
01:08:41,040 --> 01:08:41,880
Speaker 3: what the value lasts.

1375
01:08:42,000 --> 01:08:43,320
Speaker 1: You're not gonna get a good number. By the way,

1376
01:08:43,320 --> 01:08:44,760
Speaker 1: by telling me that you hear this, because like the

1377
01:08:44,840 --> 01:08:46,800
Speaker 1: money's pouring in on Phoenix, that's all gonna go up.

1378
01:08:46,840 --> 01:08:49,400
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surpriuded this. This is like, if this

1379
01:08:49,479 --> 01:08:52,880
Speaker 1: is five, by the time that it's tip off, I'm

1380
01:08:52,920 --> 01:08:55,360
Speaker 1: not betting. I've already got three and a half.

1381
01:08:55,479 --> 01:08:59,880
Speaker 5: So I think for me, I don't feel great about

1382
01:09:00,120 --> 01:09:02,639
Speaker 5: my options for Game five. If I have to pick one,

1383
01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:07,000
Speaker 5: I think for me because I just feel like Milwaukee

1384
01:09:07,120 --> 01:09:09,120
Speaker 5: is the better team right now, I would play a

1385
01:09:09,120 --> 01:09:13,160
Speaker 5: Milwaukee money line. However, my real play I won't be

1386
01:09:13,160 --> 01:09:15,639
Speaker 5: playing the Milwaukee money line. What I will be doing

1387
01:09:16,439 --> 01:09:19,519
Speaker 5: is watching for a spot to play the Milwaukee money

1388
01:09:19,520 --> 01:09:23,200
Speaker 5: line live like it's it's a home game. I think

1389
01:09:23,200 --> 01:09:26,000
Speaker 5: Phoenix is gonna come out and take a lead, and

1390
01:09:26,160 --> 01:09:29,479
Speaker 5: like the Milwaukee money line. If I like it, I

1391
01:09:29,560 --> 01:09:32,400
Speaker 5: don't mind that you know the NBA that these lines

1392
01:09:32,400 --> 01:09:34,919
Speaker 5: are swinging back and forth and there's runs and everything.

1393
01:09:35,320 --> 01:09:38,240
Speaker 5: I'm don't look for a spot I think to my

1394
01:09:38,400 --> 01:09:40,840
Speaker 5: best bet would be to look to live bet Milwaukee

1395
01:09:40,920 --> 01:09:43,439
Speaker 5: somewhere in like the first maybe early second quarter, where

1396
01:09:43,439 --> 01:09:46,519
Speaker 5: I'm hoping I get a little better line than right now,

1397
01:09:46,600 --> 01:09:49,040
Speaker 5: where I like the Bucks better. But I'm not really

1398
01:09:49,040 --> 01:09:51,719
Speaker 5: getting paid enough for me to to take the risk

1399
01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:52,240
Speaker 5: right now.

1400
01:09:52,720 --> 01:09:54,280
Speaker 1: I mean I would, I would wait for the line

1401
01:09:54,280 --> 01:09:57,960
Speaker 1: in version M Yeah, I mean I don't. I don't.

1402
01:09:58,160 --> 01:09:59,840
Speaker 1: You're not gonna get as good as a payoff, Brandon,

1403
01:09:59,840 --> 01:10:01,120
Speaker 1: But I just don't think you can feel good like

1404
01:10:01,120 --> 01:10:04,559
Speaker 1: if they're down, if they're down twelve in that first quarter.

1405
01:10:05,200 --> 01:10:06,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know about twelve.

1406
01:10:06,320 --> 01:10:08,840
Speaker 5: I'm not feeling great about twelve at that point, so

1407
01:10:09,000 --> 01:10:11,400
Speaker 5: I think I'm I think I'm not hoping it.

1408
01:10:11,360 --> 01:10:12,320
Speaker 4: Gets that deep.

1409
01:10:13,080 --> 01:10:13,160
Speaker 1: Uh.

1410
01:10:13,360 --> 01:10:16,120
Speaker 5: But but maybe then the line hasn't moved enough in

1411
01:10:16,120 --> 01:10:17,559
Speaker 5: my favor and I just have to play it.

1412
01:10:17,640 --> 01:10:18,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if it's if it's four and a

1413
01:10:18,840 --> 01:10:21,600
Speaker 1: half plus. See. This is the problem though, is like,

1414
01:10:21,880 --> 01:10:24,439
Speaker 1: if it closes closer to five, even if they're up eight,

1415
01:10:24,680 --> 01:10:26,679
Speaker 1: you're not like the Bucks money line number.

1416
01:10:26,479 --> 01:10:28,600
Speaker 5: Isn't gonna get I feel like i'd be looking what

1417
01:10:28,920 --> 01:10:30,479
Speaker 5: is the money line price at right now?

1418
01:10:30,520 --> 01:10:34,439
Speaker 4: Is it like I forget what is exactly one forty?

1419
01:10:34,960 --> 01:10:35,160
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1420
01:10:36,400 --> 01:10:38,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, I just I feel like I feel like I

1421
01:10:38,640 --> 01:10:41,240
Speaker 5: would be I don't know. One forty just doesn't feel

1422
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:44,000
Speaker 5: like enough for the risk taking on. So I guess

1423
01:10:44,040 --> 01:10:46,200
Speaker 5: if those are my options, then it's probably a stay away.

1424
01:10:46,640 --> 01:10:48,439
Speaker 5: But I'm even if I can get it to like

1425
01:10:48,479 --> 01:10:51,479
Speaker 5: a one eighty or something closer toward two hundred than

1426
01:10:51,520 --> 01:10:54,280
Speaker 5: one hundred, then I'd at least feel like, Okay, now

1427
01:10:54,320 --> 01:10:56,519
Speaker 5: I feel like the odds are worth playing a little

1428
01:10:56,560 --> 01:10:57,040
Speaker 5: bit here.

1429
01:10:57,640 --> 01:10:58,800
Speaker 4: So okay, that's game five.

1430
01:10:58,880 --> 01:11:01,280
Speaker 5: How about serious if you have to make any one

1431
01:11:01,400 --> 01:11:02,879
Speaker 5: bet on the series.

1432
01:11:03,040 --> 01:11:04,759
Speaker 4: Not let's do not finals MVP.

1433
01:11:05,000 --> 01:11:07,120
Speaker 5: Oh no final MV can be your series, bat just

1434
01:11:07,439 --> 01:11:09,080
Speaker 5: any series bat one play?

1435
01:11:09,760 --> 01:11:11,200
Speaker 4: What's your one play? Right now?

1436
01:11:13,360 --> 01:11:16,200
Speaker 1: Again? Like I'm already in on Sons and six. Oh,

1437
01:11:16,400 --> 01:11:19,160
Speaker 1: like I'm already I'm already there. I probably add to

1438
01:11:19,240 --> 01:11:23,240
Speaker 1: Sons in seven at plus one ninety. It's probably the

1439
01:11:23,240 --> 01:11:25,080
Speaker 1: move for me is to add to it, just as

1440
01:11:25,120 --> 01:11:27,519
Speaker 1: like a cause I'm gonna make a lot of money

1441
01:11:27,560 --> 01:11:30,840
Speaker 1: if it comes out at Sons and six. I made

1442
01:11:30,920 --> 01:11:34,639
Speaker 1: a good amount either way, but I'll make a better

1443
01:11:34,680 --> 01:11:36,920
Speaker 1: outcome at Sons and six. If it's Sons and seven,

1444
01:11:36,920 --> 01:11:39,160
Speaker 1: I lose a little bit, So I probably add on

1445
01:11:39,200 --> 01:11:41,080
Speaker 1: to that. And I still think the Sons are gonna

1446
01:11:41,120 --> 01:11:44,840
Speaker 1: win the series. So I think the value here is

1447
01:11:44,960 --> 01:11:47,040
Speaker 1: pretty good at Sons and seven. But like if I

1448
01:11:47,040 --> 01:11:54,680
Speaker 1: were a fresh better honestly, I I guess. Yeah, the

1449
01:11:54,760 --> 01:11:56,720
Speaker 1: Chris Paul plus one ninety, you're still getting Chris Paul

1450
01:11:56,760 --> 01:11:58,439
Speaker 1: the plus number when he was an odds on favorite

1451
01:11:58,479 --> 01:12:03,840
Speaker 1: two days ago. Yeah, right, I think I'm gonna go.

1452
01:12:04,520 --> 01:12:06,240
Speaker 3: I'm going with this prop that they have on BETMG.

1453
01:12:06,520 --> 01:12:07,920
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna go with the Suns to win

1454
01:12:08,000 --> 01:12:10,360
Speaker 3: Game five and the Milwaukee Bucks to win this series

1455
01:12:10,400 --> 01:12:13,599
Speaker 3: plus four to seventy five. IM you guys know, I'm

1456
01:12:13,600 --> 01:12:16,120
Speaker 3: a little bit more conservative, but I think that's the

1457
01:12:16,120 --> 01:12:18,000
Speaker 3: way to go because I can't I mean, plus one

1458
01:12:18,040 --> 01:12:20,560
Speaker 3: twenty five. There's really no value on the Bucks.

1459
01:12:20,840 --> 01:12:22,960
Speaker 1: The year of doing these positive Brandon and look what's

1460
01:12:23,000 --> 01:12:23,400
Speaker 1: happened to you.

1461
01:12:26,479 --> 01:12:29,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't to me any series bet that I

1462
01:12:29,920 --> 01:12:32,639
Speaker 5: have to try to figure out how many games it's

1463
01:12:32,640 --> 01:12:35,120
Speaker 5: gonna go or what the order of the outcomes is

1464
01:12:35,200 --> 01:12:37,439
Speaker 5: at this point in the series, like in a weird way,

1465
01:12:37,479 --> 01:12:38,639
Speaker 5: the series has been predictable.

1466
01:12:38,640 --> 01:12:40,400
Speaker 4: The home team just won every game. It's just the

1467
01:12:40,400 --> 01:12:41,519
Speaker 4: home team has won all of them.

1468
01:12:41,720 --> 01:12:44,639
Speaker 5: But it feels unpredictable, Like we have two games right

1469
01:12:44,680 --> 01:12:47,599
Speaker 5: now where it feels like the complete wrong team one.

1470
01:12:47,840 --> 01:12:49,519
Speaker 5: So I just I don't feel like I trust the

1471
01:12:49,680 --> 01:12:52,640
Speaker 5: results matching up with what I'm seeing. So I just

1472
01:12:52,680 --> 01:12:54,679
Speaker 5: I don't want to play a series bet right now.

1473
01:12:55,280 --> 01:12:58,360
Speaker 5: That's just anything other than who's winning. Like I don't

1474
01:12:58,400 --> 01:13:02,679
Speaker 5: want to play a minus one point five or something

1475
01:13:02,720 --> 01:13:05,599
Speaker 5: in six or something in seven. Just I'm not saying

1476
01:13:05,600 --> 01:13:07,519
Speaker 5: that you can't guess it like any of the outcomes

1477
01:13:07,520 --> 01:13:09,960
Speaker 5: are there. I just have lost all my confidence to

1478
01:13:10,000 --> 01:13:12,559
Speaker 5: have any idea of one of these teams is so

1479
01:13:12,600 --> 01:13:14,080
Speaker 5: good they're gonna win the next two games.

1480
01:13:14,520 --> 01:13:15,120
Speaker 4: No, thank you.

1481
01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:17,320
Speaker 5: I don't want to bet on either one of these

1482
01:13:17,360 --> 01:13:19,559
Speaker 5: teams to win two games in a row right now.

1483
01:13:20,160 --> 01:13:23,439
Speaker 5: So to me, that the play that would make it's

1484
01:13:23,439 --> 01:13:24,679
Speaker 5: the same thing that I've argued before.

1485
01:13:24,720 --> 01:13:26,080
Speaker 4: It's the Chris Paul one ninety.

1486
01:13:26,400 --> 01:13:29,080
Speaker 5: I realize that that's kind of like betting on the

1487
01:13:29,120 --> 01:13:31,160
Speaker 5: Suns to have to win the series and another thing,

1488
01:13:31,600 --> 01:13:34,600
Speaker 5: but my argument is that that those two are the

1489
01:13:34,600 --> 01:13:36,840
Speaker 5: same thing that if the Suns are going to win,

1490
01:13:36,920 --> 01:13:38,400
Speaker 5: I think it has to be because of Chris Paul.

1491
01:13:38,880 --> 01:13:41,240
Speaker 1: I get that, I get the value, and you always

1492
01:13:41,240 --> 01:13:43,360
Speaker 1: want a plus number right now, but you do get

1493
01:13:43,439 --> 01:13:45,720
Speaker 1: set for the series. Ago seven is minus one twenty five,

1494
01:13:45,720 --> 01:13:48,000
Speaker 1: Which isn't that that way you have to worry about outcome.

1495
01:13:48,040 --> 01:13:51,080
Speaker 1: You're just basically saying they're gonna split the home teams.

1496
01:13:51,400 --> 01:13:54,400
Speaker 1: The home team's gonna keep winning. That's not bad. That's

1497
01:13:54,439 --> 01:13:55,080
Speaker 1: not bad at all.

1498
01:13:55,200 --> 01:13:58,200
Speaker 3: Of course, if the Suns win, Scott Foster is jumping

1499
01:13:58,200 --> 01:13:59,080
Speaker 3: off the top turn.

1500
01:13:58,920 --> 01:14:00,840
Speaker 5: Bro I, that's that's what I was just trying to

1501
01:14:00,880 --> 01:14:04,160
Speaker 5: sid like, which way do I feel more jeopardized about

1502
01:14:04,160 --> 01:14:06,280
Speaker 5: it not going seven? And I think it's Bucks and

1503
01:14:06,400 --> 01:14:10,000
Speaker 5: Sex because if the Bucks win Game five, I think

1504
01:14:10,000 --> 01:14:13,360
Speaker 5: Phoenix is in huge trouble going to Milwaukee. If the

1505
01:14:13,360 --> 01:14:16,479
Speaker 5: Suns win Game five, I'll feel great about my going

1506
01:14:16,479 --> 01:14:19,120
Speaker 5: to seven because Scott Foster is just going to put

1507
01:14:19,120 --> 01:14:20,519
Speaker 5: on a show in Game Sex.

1508
01:14:21,160 --> 01:14:22,559
Speaker 1: All right, let's star wrap it up for the Action

1509
01:14:22,600 --> 01:14:25,200
Speaker 1: Network NBA podcast. Make sure it's stay tuned throughout the week.

1510
01:14:25,200 --> 01:14:28,160
Speaker 1: We were getting you set for NFL season, with fantasy

1511
01:14:28,360 --> 01:14:31,599
Speaker 1: drafts coming up, actual training camp starting later this month,

1512
01:14:31,680 --> 01:14:33,000
Speaker 1: make sure check that out. Make sure check out the

1513
01:14:33,040 --> 01:14:35,760
Speaker 1: favorites of Chad Milman and Simon Hunter. Raheem was on

1514
01:14:35,920 --> 01:14:38,599
Speaker 1: the last two weeks on the Tuesday episodes breaking down

1515
01:14:38,640 --> 01:14:41,880
Speaker 1: the AFC and NFC win totals, which I am being

1516
01:14:41,880 --> 01:14:44,639
Speaker 1: honest here, I've listened to those podcasts each episode three

1517
01:14:44,640 --> 01:14:46,679
Speaker 1: times now, that's how good they are. They're really good.

1518
01:14:47,120 --> 01:14:49,559
Speaker 1: GOLLA value out of them. Make sure check out Brandon's

1519
01:14:49,600 --> 01:14:51,720
Speaker 1: props article as they continue to cook. Make sure to

1520
01:14:51,760 --> 01:14:53,680
Speaker 1: follow both those guys on the Action Network app and

1521
01:14:53,760 --> 01:14:56,559
Speaker 1: on Twitter. Thanks for joining us on the Action Network

1522
01:14:56,640 --> 01:14:59,320
Speaker 1: NBA Podcast. We will be back next week getting you

1523
01:14:59,360 --> 01:15:02,920
Speaker 1: set full o Game six of the NBA Finals as

1524
01:15:02,920 --> 01:15:06,719
Speaker 1: this incredible series comes to a conclusion at some point

1525
01:15:07,160 --> 01:15:10,519
Speaker 1: next week. For Brandon Anderson and Rahee Palmer, I'm Matt Moore.

1526
01:15:10,680 --> 01:15:13,840
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us on the Action Network Podcast, NBA

1527
01:15:14,000 --> 01:15:14,240
Speaker 1: Edition