1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I am Akshatrati. This week a conversation 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 1: with the COP thirty president. It is the sixth of 3 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: November and I have made it to Brazil where today 4 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: world leaders are gathering in Berlin to kickoff COP thirty, 5 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: the annual United Nations Climate Conference. 6 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: It is a. 7 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: Strange year to be hosting a COP meeting. On the 8 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:34,480 Speaker 1: one hand, it's a year to celebrate the tenth anniversary 9 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: of the Paris Agreement, the signature achievement of these climate negotiations. 10 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 1: On the other hand, the US, the world's second largest emitter, 11 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 1: said in January that it would withdraw from the Paris Agreement, 12 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 1: though the formal exit won't happen till twenty twenty six. 13 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 1: The US has also said that they will be sending 14 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: no major government representatives to Berlin. To add to the troubles, 15 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: recent ultilateral climate negotiations at the International Maritime Organization and 16 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: during the Plastics Treaty conversation have fallen apart in spectacular fashion, 17 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 1: mainly driven by the US that is making concerted efforts 18 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: to direct climate policies globally. In the phase of that, 19 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: it's been frustrating for many climate advocates that Brazil hasn't 20 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 1: given any real indication of what it hopes to achieve 21 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:30,399 Speaker 1: from COP thirteen negotiations, other than saying it would like 22 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 1: to focus on implementing the many promises that countries have 23 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: made at previous corps. So to try and get a 24 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 1: better understanding of what will take place over the next 25 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: two weeks, I sat down with COP thirty President Andre 26 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: Korea the Logo for a live conversation at Bloomberg neef's 27 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: summit in San Paolo. I wanted to know what he 28 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: hopes this COP can achieve, how Brazil plans to work 29 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: around a belligerent US government, and what is the viable 30 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: to increase climate finance to developing countries. 31 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 3: How are you feeling fine? Well, Andre, welcome to this 32 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 3: Bloomberg and EF event and welcome to a live taping 33 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 3: of the Zero podcast. This will be my fifth COP 34 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 3: and before we come to what needs to be delivered 35 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 3: at this COP, let me just recognize that it's going 36 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 3: to be a marathon. It's two weeks of non stop talking, 37 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 3: non stop negotiation, and a lot less sleep. So what 38 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 3: are your tips and tricks to survive COP? 39 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:40,839 Speaker 2: Well, my first COP was in two thousand and two. 40 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 2: So let's say that I've seen a few, not all 41 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 2: of them. Don't think that I go every year to 42 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 2: that very special experience. But I believe that this is 43 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:59,399 Speaker 2: going to be really a very different cop because in 44 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 2: the preparation of the cop, what we call the mobilization period, 45 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 2: I think that most people agreed and realized that cops 46 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 2: have been much more successful than people think. We have 47 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 2: approved so many things, we can already do so many things, 48 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 2: we have mandage to do so many things that this 49 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 2: cop can truly be the first cop that effectively is 50 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:28,119 Speaker 2: an implementation cop. So I think that this is what 51 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 2: is driving some optimism in all of us that we 52 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 2: are going into a cop not as the usual cop. 53 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 3: So I want to spend a lot of our time 54 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,279 Speaker 3: talking about deliverables. But before we come to the deliverables, 55 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 3: I understand there are still delegations looking for accommodation at Blean. 56 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 2: Is that the case, I don't think so. I believe 57 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 2: that the accommodation issue in Berlin was first to have 58 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 2: rooms for all affordable rooms for all the delegations, because 59 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 2: we need everybody to go, and this has been already confirmed. 60 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: Now that people are seeing that the prices are going down, etc. 61 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 2: Et cetera. I think that some delegations are growing, which 62 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 2: I think is great. They are going to discover the 63 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 2: amazing food of Bilaying and the many charms of Bilay, 64 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 2: and so they are most welcome, and I believe that 65 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 2: they will find some ice rooms. 66 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 3: So we spoke last year in Baku, and you'd give 67 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:27,840 Speaker 3: me a big pitch of you of what COP thirty 68 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:31,039 Speaker 3: would be. You're here now, your COP president is going 69 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 3: to start. We all know this COP is going to 70 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 3: be a little different. It's ten years since the Paris 71 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 3: Agreement was signed. All the rules that needed to be 72 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 3: agreed in the Paris Agreement that required negotiations, quite testing 73 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 3: negotiations at times, they've all been done. The one thing 74 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 3: that COP thirty needed to achieve by the time countries 75 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 3: even came here was to make sure that countries submit 76 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 3: their climate plans. You have spent a lot of your 77 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 3: year trying to get countries to submit more climate plans, 78 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 3: and yet so far only about sixty countries have done. 79 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 3: So why has it been so hard to convince countries 80 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 3: to put forward their climate plans for twenty thirty five? 81 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, this was not expected because the deadline, the original 82 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 2: deadlines for the NDCs, which are those nationally determined contributions, 83 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 2: was February. But the truth is that countries have realized 84 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 2: how complex it is to do a good NDC, and 85 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:36,160 Speaker 2: now that much more people are watching it and that 86 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 2: you have the structures of some verification of support, etc. 87 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,680 Speaker 2: Countries want to present NDCs that are credible and they 88 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:49,160 Speaker 2: have to negotiate inside the country to make sure that 89 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 2: they are proposing something that is doable. So we had 90 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 2: lots of consultations in Brazil, but we did it in 91 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 2: advance because we knew we were going to preside the 92 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 2: cop and we had to represent our NDC and represented 93 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 2: our NDC in Baku. But I think it's very much 94 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 2: linked to the fact that the NDCs are a very 95 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 2: serious issue. Now what do we do by having much 96 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:20,719 Speaker 2: less than we should? First we have some consequences, is 97 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 2: that the reports that we were supposed to receive from 98 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:34,159 Speaker 2: the NDCs that would have brought a more informed debate 99 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 2: at the Cup, these reports could not be done the 100 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 2: way they were supposed to. But since this report which 101 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 2: was presented, I think shows where we're going and tomorrow 102 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 2: will have the gap report from a unipp that will 103 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 2: also work on the numbers that are available, But it 104 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 2: is true that it is something that was quite unexpected. 105 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 3: The numbers we do have, and there are some analysis 106 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 3: have come with numbers, is that we are heading towards 107 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 3: the world that is two point seven to point eight 108 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 3: degrees celsius of warming. The Paris Agreement goals are two 109 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 3: degrees celsius, ideally one point five degrees celsius. Now that 110 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 3: gap has been reducing since the Paris Agreement, it was 111 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 3: about four degrees celsius. It has been falling, but that's 112 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 3: that fall has now slowed down. And one of the 113 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 3: goals that you were hoping if these NDCs, if these 114 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 3: climate plans had come in time, is that you would 115 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 3: at COP thirty come up with a way to try 116 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 3: and narrow that gap, to try and accelerate the speed 117 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 3: of decline for that higher temperature end. Given where we 118 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 3: are right now, how do you think you're going to 119 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 3: achieve that at COP thirty, Well, it's complex. 120 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 2: I think that there is a recognition of the necessity 121 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 2: of lowering to the expectation to one point five. But 122 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 2: I think that you you mentioned something that is essential 123 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 2: is that Paris worked because when we were negotiating Paris, 124 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 2: who were going towards at least four degrees. So Paris worked. 125 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 2: Now it didn't work in the way that was expected 126 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 2: if you ask developing countries, is because there was not 127 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 2: enough financing. Because it's true that most of the renewable revolution, 128 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 2: for instance, is happening in developed countries and in China, 129 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 2: and there is an incredible potential in developing countries. So 130 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 2: the point of developing countries is quite logical. If there 131 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 2: was more financial resources, this revolution could have happened in 132 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 2: other countries too. Sometimes developed countries talk about ambition and 133 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 2: things like that, but ambition we've seen from developing countries' 134 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 2: point of view is ambition both in finance and in 135 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 2: so the two things have to go together. Now the 136 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 2: cost is high, but the returns are enormous too. We 137 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 2: are seeing that China recognizes that a considerable part of 138 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 2: its growth of its GDP has been linked to the 139 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 2: agenda of combating climate change. Many jobs also have been 140 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 2: created thanks to that. So we have a demonstration that 141 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 2: this is something that works very well in a developing country. 142 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 2: And I believe that we end up coming back to 143 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 2: finance as a key issue, which it is since we 144 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 2: negotiated the Climate Change Convention nineteen ninety two. 145 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 3: So I want to come to finance, But let me 146 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 3: come to one important topic before we come to finance. 147 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,839 Speaker 3: So we know in the national climate plans, there are 148 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 3: lots of plans that are differing speed different contexts. Developing 149 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 3: countries have different commitments in their climate plans. Developed countries 150 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 3: have different commitments. But we also have some big goal 151 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 3: goals that countries had set, like tripling renewables or stopping deforestation. 152 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 3: One of those goals, which was signed off at COP 153 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 3: twenty eight in Dubai, was to start to phase out 154 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 3: fossil fuels. Now, none of the sixty climate plans that 155 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:17,239 Speaker 3: have been submitted so far have any language about stopping 156 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 3: the production of fossil fuels. You talked about China. Now, 157 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 3: China is a country that is clearly building what many 158 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 3: call an electro state, a country that is exporting clean tech. 159 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:32,719 Speaker 3: But even their own submission of a climate plan is 160 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:37,559 Speaker 3: much weaker than anybody expected. We had Wukahukstra from EU 161 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,679 Speaker 3: saying no, they wanted China to reduce their emissions by 162 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 3: twenty percent, maybe thirty percent by twenty thirty five, but 163 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 3: the commitment is ten percent. So what do you think 164 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 3: you can do at COP thirty to try and get 165 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 3: countries to start to phase out fossil fuels. 166 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very easy to have an opinion about the 167 00:10:55,600 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 2: other countries. So China has many opinions about the EU 168 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 2: reduction of emissions also and about financial resources. So I 169 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 2: think that we have to concentrate on what the countries 170 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 2: can really do among themselves. And in fact, what we 171 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 2: agreed in Dubai was to transition away from fossil fils. 172 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 2: That's the word thing that allowed the jest to be approved, 173 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 2: and in Brazil's NDC we mentioned it. In our NDC 174 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 2: we say that we welcome a discussion on how we're 175 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 2: going to do this transition away. And the transition away 176 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 2: is agreed by all, but it's going to be different 177 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 2: according to each country, and that was something also that 178 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 2: was in the presentation. We're going to have different transitions, 179 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 2: and I think that this is an extremely important debate. 180 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 2: How are we going to organize in each one of 181 00:11:54,960 --> 00:12:01,439 Speaker 2: the countries this process. Now, some countries have completely different circumstances. 182 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 2: So now we have, for instance, here in Brazil we 183 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 2: have asked some think tanks and universities too to develop 184 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 2: some ideas on how can we transition away, and we've 185 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 2: also asked sectors of Brazil and economy to present their 186 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 2: way of looking at how this transition can happen. And 187 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 2: I think this exercise is extraordinary and somehow that's why 188 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 2: we have to trust and believe that these cops are useful. 189 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 2: I'm highly suspicious, obviously because I'm going to preside one. 190 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 2: But the fact is that if it was not for 191 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 2: the cops, we would not have developed many of the 192 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,440 Speaker 2: technologies that we have now. We would not know about 193 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,679 Speaker 2: so many things that we know and all these statistics 194 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 2: that allow us to understand what we need to do, 195 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 2: what we can do, and what we have still to invent, 196 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 2: because unfortunately there are things in that direction too. 197 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 1: Join us after the break for more of my conversation 198 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 1: with COP thirty president Andre Corea. The logo and if 199 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: you're enjoying this conversation so far, please take a moment 200 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 1: to write a review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 201 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 2: Thank you. 202 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,959 Speaker 3: So. Coming to finance. At COP twenty nine, there was 203 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,319 Speaker 3: a commitment to come up with a roadmap called the 204 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 3: Baku tablean roadmap, and you're supposed to present that roadmap now. Now, 205 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 3: roadmap says. 206 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 2: It's a roadmap. 207 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 3: It's going to tell you what our idea is to 208 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:47,439 Speaker 3: try and unlock climate finance as much as one point 209 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 3: three trillion dollars every year. What should we expect in 210 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 3: the roadmap that would be concrete, what that could convert 211 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 3: into real money for developing countries. 212 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 2: Well, I wish I could give you a very exciting 213 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 2: news that we found one point three trillion a year 214 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 2: by twenty thirty five. I believe that we have to 215 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 2: understand better what is climate finance, to understand better the numbers, 216 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 2: where it comes from, how it is used. And so 217 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 2: the roadmap that the Presidency of Coup twenty nine and 218 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 2: the Presidency of Brazil are going to present, I believe, 219 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 2: translate in a very straightforward way the difficulties that we 220 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 2: may face. And there are many things that we have 221 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 2: to do. But obviously there is no super bullet, so 222 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 2: we have to work on many of the directions that 223 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 2: we are already exploring. The good news is that we 224 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 2: are already exploring probably all the possibilities to get these resources. 225 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 2: The second thing is that we have to take the 226 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 2: pandemic as a reference. Nobody would think that we would 227 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 2: be able to raise as much money that was possible 228 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 2: for the pandemic in the time that this happened. So 229 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 2: there is money. There is enough money. And by the way, 230 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 2: it's quite interesting because one of the numbers that was 231 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 2: presented here is that the cost of climate change is 232 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 2: already one point four trillion a year, so one point 233 00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 2: four one point three trillion, So it already costs one 234 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 2: point four trillion. So the numbers are there, the resources 235 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 2: are there, but we really have to correct many things 236 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 2: that may look small, but together they become a barrier 237 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 2: to this finance objective. But as we put it in 238 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 2: the in the report, we are optimistic because it is possible. 239 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 3: So in that chart of one point four trillion, there's 240 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 3: one big. 241 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 2: Blue one point three don't exaggerate. 242 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 3: In the dam chart, yes, on the one point four 243 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 3: trillion dollars of annual climate damages, there was a big 244 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 3: blue bar and that was the US, and that was 245 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 3: about eight hundred billion dollars of climate damage in one year. 246 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 3: And we need to talk about the US. You have 247 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 3: been a diplomat all your life and it must be 248 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 3: recognized what happened at the International Maritime Organization in October. 249 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 3: There was a meeting where countries were very confident that 250 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 3: they'd worked on years to try and come to a 251 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 3: global carbon tax on shipping. They were confident that a 252 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 3: majority of countries would vote on it. And then we 253 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 3: saw something that lots of diplomats have come to us 254 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 3: and told us was extraordinary, something that they had never 255 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 3: seen in a multilateral forum before, where the US first 256 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 3: made public threats and then made private threats towards individuals 257 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 3: to revoke their visas or put sanctions to tell them, 258 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 3: if you vote for this proposal, you're going to be 259 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 3: in trouble. And that kind of bullying, as one expert 260 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 3: put it, has lots of countries worried. Now you are 261 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 3: going to be at a COP where the US is 262 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 3: still a part of the COP. Right by next year 263 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 3: they won't be, but right now they're officially a part 264 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 3: of the COP. What is your plan to deal with 265 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 3: the US at COP, especially if they become so disruptive. 266 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 2: So you told me, I'm an experienced diplomat, and I'm 267 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 2: a diplomat, and you want me to talk about the US, 268 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 2: So okay, let me try well, I heard similar reports 269 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:48,840 Speaker 2: about the negotiation in London. Yeah, it is. Let's say 270 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 2: that it is not the definition of diplomacy what happened there. 271 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 2: But I believe that at COP thirty we're going to 272 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 2: have a different circums. The US already announced it out 273 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 2: and it's just waiting for the formality of waiting one 274 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 2: year to live formally in January. So I think it's 275 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 2: different than the US acting in two negotiations that they 276 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 2: believed were going to affect them. As you know, the 277 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 2: Paris Accord is much less binding than many of the 278 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 2: other agreements, and so the US maybe believes that with 279 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 2: the Paris Agreement, just leaving the Paris Agreement will solve 280 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 2: the problem they have with the Paris Agreement. But nevertheless, 281 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 2: it was two very interesting negotiations, both Plastic and the IMO, 282 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 2: because they showed in a very clear way how all 283 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:58,160 Speaker 2: these negotiations have become essentially economic. So when people think 284 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,919 Speaker 2: of COP thirty as an environment to negotiation, it's because 285 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:05,679 Speaker 2: they haven't seen how it has evolved. It touches so 286 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:09,399 Speaker 2: many sectors of the economy that countries really have to 287 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 2: be very careful because no country in the world is 288 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 2: ready for the transition, every country will have to sacrifice 289 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 2: some sectors or will have to invest very heavily for changes. 290 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 2: So what you see is that somehow we are touching 291 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 2: some nerves in the sense that these negotiations are reaching 292 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:40,360 Speaker 2: something because they are provoking a reaction. That is some 293 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 2: would say, not me, I'm a diplomat over reaction. 294 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 3: You say it is an economic conversation. But if you 295 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 3: and there have been analysis done of the global carbon 296 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 3: tax on shipping, it would raise the price of somebody 297 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 3: buying something at a supermarket by zero point one percent 298 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 3: of the price. Right, It's a very very small increase 299 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 3: because shipping is only the transport cost of the good 300 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,719 Speaker 3: that is being brought to you. And so it was 301 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:15,880 Speaker 3: less economic and clearly more ideolgical the battle that's being waged, 302 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 3: so to speak, on the diplomacy front right now in 303 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 3: the US. So if it was economic, you could look 304 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:23,880 Speaker 3: at the charts that we just saw and you could 305 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 3: make the case that clearly, rationally people should be acting 306 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 3: for climate action. But this is not about rationality. 307 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 2: Let me tell you, when we like two years ago, 308 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 2: when we were discussing the IMO issue, we had some 309 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 2: strong indications that it would increase significantly the cost of 310 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 2: shipping for some Brazilian products because Brazil is an important exporter, 311 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:59,640 Speaker 2: but we're out of the usual routes, so we had 312 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:04,439 Speaker 2: the next onomic concern about it. But we discussed, we 313 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 2: said the problems that we had, et cetera, et cetera, 314 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 2: and so the negotiation adjusted to incorporate the concerns of 315 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:17,400 Speaker 2: countries like Brazil. That is what negotiations is about. You 316 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 2: you have to be careful because sometimes it will affect 317 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 2: your country in a very negative way. I think that 318 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 2: there was I wouldn't call ideological. I think it it 319 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 2: is a reaction against the previous government that had a 320 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:37,679 Speaker 2: different perception of this, so they had they had no 321 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:42,480 Speaker 2: time to come back to the level of the negotiations before. 322 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 2: So I think that today I've been trying to I 323 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 2: think many people agree that today you cannot anymore use, 324 00:21:56,000 --> 00:22:00,679 Speaker 2: you know, fake scientific data to discuss claim change. So 325 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 2: now there is a new stage in the debates about 326 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:08,640 Speaker 2: climate change, which is the economic logic of the fight 327 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 2: against climate change. So the economic logic of this fight 328 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:17,199 Speaker 2: on investing in renewables, on transitioning away from fossil fuels, 329 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 2: and so many other solutions, development of new technologies. I 330 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,679 Speaker 2: think this is what is being debated. And in every 331 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 2: country in the world, the most conservative groups which are 332 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 2: concerned about the negotiations are the most active groups with 333 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 2: the governments because they are afraid to lose something. And 334 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 2: so somehow every country arrives at the COP very much 335 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 2: influenced by the sectors of their economy that are more concerned. 336 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:57,880 Speaker 2: So I think there is just an increase in lack 337 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 2: of subtlety of some of the arguments. 338 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 3: So in this fracturing of geopolitics, one reason that you 339 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 3: have articulated in the past, that President Lula has articulated 340 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 3: is that you want COP thirty to be the showcase 341 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:14,879 Speaker 3: that multilateralism is still working. One way, and this is 342 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,880 Speaker 3: a little technical part of COPP. One way in which 343 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 3: that is done is that towards the end, there is 344 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 3: a statement, sometimes many pages of PDF long, that all 345 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 3: countries sign off on, typically called a cover decision. We've 346 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,679 Speaker 3: had a cover decision in Glasgow called the Glasgow pat 347 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 3: and Charmel Shake, called the Shamalchak Implementation Plan. One way 348 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 3: in which you could show that multilateralism is working, that 349 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 3: would be through showing countries making a commitment towards climate 350 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,919 Speaker 3: action through this cover decision? Is that a tool that 351 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 3: you're going to use? If not, what tool? 352 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 2: Now? It is a tool. It's a legitimate tool because 353 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 2: it's in the rules of the negotiation. But in the 354 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:05,239 Speaker 2: more diplomatic Brazilian tradition, we praise transparency above everything. So 355 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 2: there are some actors that are telling us we need 356 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 2: to cover decision, etc. I prefer to try to use 357 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 2: the negotiations that we have already included in the agenda 358 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:26,439 Speaker 2: and try to find the place for all these concerns 359 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,639 Speaker 2: in the decisions that are going to be negotiated. Now, 360 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 2: there may be a movement of countries, of a very 361 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 2: large number of countries that say, look, we are in 362 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 2: a situation that only a covered decision can solve the situation. 363 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 2: So I don't know if we are going to reach 364 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,239 Speaker 2: that moment, but I believe that for the moment, I 365 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 2: prefer not to work with the idea that in the 366 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 2: last minute we're going to come with something. Let's try 367 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,720 Speaker 2: to work with the elements we have in the most 368 00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 2: transparent possible way. I think that we can reach a 369 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 2: good result that way. But let's see, because you know, 370 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:10,639 Speaker 2: all cops are a bit strange, and I think that 371 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:12,840 Speaker 2: this one will also be a little. 372 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 3: Last question for you. So cop over the years have 373 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 3: grown in size, but also in importance and in attention 374 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,640 Speaker 3: that they gathered from the world. One of the ways 375 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,159 Speaker 3: they gather that attention is there's a headline at the 376 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 3: end saying this is what we achieved. You are now 377 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 3: saying there are many things that we've achieved. This is 378 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:35,120 Speaker 3: about actually implementing them. But you want the leaders who 379 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 3: will be coming here to Brazil to go back home 380 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,560 Speaker 3: and say why it is worthy of still working on 381 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 3: the paras agleement. What is it that you think they 382 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 3: can get from this cop and what is the message 383 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 3: that you would hope leaders would take back to their 384 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:50,200 Speaker 3: own countries. 385 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 2: Well, as you said, cops have grown enormously and cops 386 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 2: have a huge impact on the economy, on social issues, 387 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 2: on so many themes. So it's very difficult to imagine 388 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 2: one thing at the COP that would please everybody. The 389 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 2: other thing is that many times conferences like that you 390 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:16,479 Speaker 2: only see the real impact of the results after a 391 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 2: certain time. All these things that I'm saying is to 392 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,879 Speaker 2: be a diplomatic and say that I don't know what 393 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 2: I want at the end of the coup. But the 394 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:29,080 Speaker 2: point is that we indeed many results of the coup 395 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 2: because we have many layers at the COP that we 396 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 2: have to satisfy. I mean, we need business to be satisfied, 397 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 2: science to be satisfied, civil society to be satisfied, developed 398 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,679 Speaker 2: countries to be satisfied, developing countries to be satisfied. So 399 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,960 Speaker 2: I think that this is what makes a successful COP 400 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,879 Speaker 2: is when you have united people and not when you 401 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 2: have achieved one result that is appreciated by one sector 402 00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 2: more than others. It's a very difficult balance. It's a 403 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 2: very difficult balance. But we've been listening to countries. We've 404 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:10,960 Speaker 2: been listening to civil society, to science, to business, and 405 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 2: I hope that we are going to be able to 406 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 2: have a COP that brings true results to all of 407 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,640 Speaker 2: them because I think that this is what is going 408 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:24,920 Speaker 2: to bring back trust in multilateralisms, is not the capacity 409 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,479 Speaker 2: of having an agreement in the last minute on something 410 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,800 Speaker 2: that people didn't have so much time to read. So 411 00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 2: let's try to do it. Because again I think that 412 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:42,880 Speaker 2: we have to convince people that it's worthwhile to continue 413 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,639 Speaker 2: to negotiate climate and convince people, also that we have 414 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 2: negotiated enough to act. 415 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 3: Thank you and good luck. 416 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:51,399 Speaker 2: Thank you, I need that. 417 00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,120 Speaker 1: Thank you for listening to zero. If you like this episode, 418 00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 1: please take a moment to rate and review the show 419 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,199 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. This episode was produced by 420 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 1: Oscar Boyd with additional help from Anna Mazarakis. Our theme 421 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,560 Speaker 1: music is composed by Wonderly Special Thanks to Samarsadi, Moses 422 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:23,160 Speaker 1: Andam Laura Milan and Sharon chan i'm Akshadrati back soon.