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Speaker 2: I've never ever ever said this before. How about making
Speaker 2: a book of the year, a book that's eighteen months
Speaker 2: old and now two years old. Rushia Sharma in twenty
Speaker 2: four took every award for What Went Wrong with Capitalism?
Speaker 2: This is the book you throwed a twenty one year
Speaker 2: old brat, Paul. I'm talking to you, and you say,
Speaker 2: shut up and read this Rushia Sharma and the President's
Speaker 2: here are going to Fdr Nixon, Reagan, Biden and on
Speaker 2: to President Trump, ever more important, two years down the road.
Speaker 2: I can't say enough about it. Rich here, thank you
Speaker 2: so much for joining us this morning. If you were
Speaker 2: to write a new epilogue for What Went Wrong with Capitalism?
Speaker 3: How would you write it?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 4: Tom First, thank you so much for your kind words,
Speaker 4: because nothing warms the heart of an author more than
Speaker 4: to hear it from someone like you. But yeah, that's
Speaker 4: exactly been the aim of this book, which is to
Speaker 4: sort of show that how the capitalism we have today
Speaker 4: is a very distorted form of capitalism we have can.
Speaker 5: We even call it that?
Speaker 4: And the main reason I wrote the book is something
Speaker 4: that you tease just now in your introduction, which is
Speaker 4: that so many young people today, when they are polled
Speaker 4: in America, say that they're disillusioned with capitalism, and in fact,
Speaker 4: many of them, particularly progressives, say that they would rather
Speaker 4: have socialism. Now, that tells you about what is the
Speaker 4: disenchantment with the cutting system.
Speaker 5: That we have.
Speaker 4: And what I've tried to do in the book, and
Speaker 4: I don't think I would change anything from what I
Speaker 4: wrote about this eighteen months ago when it was published,
Speaker 4: is that you've seen more of that, which is that
Speaker 4: we're seeing much wider income inequality, wealth inequality, and we
Speaker 4: are seeing a lot of the incumbents get much more entrenched.
Speaker 5: And my point is that.
Speaker 4: Capitalism is not supposed to work this way. Capitalism is
Speaker 4: supposed to be pro churn. It's supposed to be pro competition,
Speaker 4: and we are supposed to weed out a lot of
Speaker 4: the old players rather than have this kind of system
Speaker 4: where it gets cleroossos.
Speaker 2: That's right, where I wanted to go wead out the
Speaker 2: old players post Trump. Whatever your politics, folks, I don't care.
Speaker 2: Russhier is great about that. Post Trump. What happens to
Speaker 2: populism is all of this solved at the ballot box.
Speaker 4: Well, I think that, you know, the main issue that
Speaker 4: Americans have today is one of affordability, and the affordability
Speaker 4: crisis that we're facing in America, A lot of that
Speaker 4: comes because of home prices, and that goes to the
Speaker 4: heart of what went wrong with capitalism. Why are home
Speaker 4: price is so unaffordable for so many Americans that so
Speaker 4: many twenty year olds today cannot afford to buy a
Speaker 4: home and are prefering to living in with their parents. Well,
Speaker 4: the main reason for that is that the amount of
Speaker 4: regulation we have had in the system that has made
Speaker 4: home supply in very short supply. In fact, so the
Speaker 4: number of new homes we're building in America today is
Speaker 4: roughly the same level as it was thirty forty years ago,
Speaker 4: when the population was a lot less. The kind of
Speaker 4: regulation we have today makes it very difficult to build
Speaker 4: new homes, so keeps going up, but supply just doesn't
Speaker 4: come on the market. So I think that this is
Speaker 4: what we need to do that how do we get
Speaker 4: capitalism back to functioning the way it was, closer to
Speaker 4: what the founders had in mind. I'm not saying we
Speaker 4: return to the Dicxanian form of capitalism that we had
Speaker 4: the nineteen twenties without a welfare state. But this capitalism
Speaker 4: where you have, at least for the rich, capitalism on
Speaker 4: the upside, and then socialism on the downside, where the
Speaker 4: losses are socialized.
Speaker 5: The government's there how to protect you.
Speaker 4: I think that that distorted form of capitalism is something
Speaker 4: which we'll keep producing these perverse outcomes that we're getting
Speaker 4: today across America.
Speaker 2: Rusher Shearmer with us of course, chairman at Rockefeller International,
Speaker 2: can't say enough about his work, including my book of
Speaker 2: the Year, What Went Wrong with Capitalism?
Speaker 3: Paul Sweeney with Russier Sharma.
Speaker 6: Sure, I think we all grew up, most of our listeners,
Speaker 6: have yourers with globalism? Is globalism dead these days?
Speaker 5: Really?
Speaker 4: Because if you look at what's happening in the world
Speaker 4: over the past year, the yes that America is withdrawing
Speaker 4: from the global trade system, but the rest of the
Speaker 4: world is learning to trade without America. So if you
Speaker 4: see what's happened to trade volumes over the last few quarters.
Speaker 4: America's share is declining in global trade volumes, but the
Speaker 4: rest of the world, the trade volumes are actually going up.
Speaker 4: And as I travel the world, what I find is
Speaker 4: that more and more countries are trading with each other,
Speaker 4: signing trade agreements with each other Europe and Latin America.
Speaker 5: Even countries that it.
Speaker 4: Turned quite protectionous like India, are signing more trade deals
Speaker 4: with the Middle East or with New Zealands.
Speaker 5: So at least on the trade front, what I.
Speaker 4: Find is that globalization outside of America continues. Now, of
Speaker 4: course globalism is more imperiled has to do with immigration,
Speaker 4: and this is one of the top trains of my
Speaker 4: year that we are seeing this backlash against immigration, not
Speaker 4: only in America but across the Western hemisphere. So therefore
Speaker 4: immigration rates have collapsed in much of Europe as well,
Speaker 4: not just in America. But as far as trade is concerned,
Speaker 4: the world is really learning to trade without America.
Speaker 5: Increasingly China.
Speaker 6: That's one of the big wild cards I think as
Speaker 6: we think about global trade here here, what's your view
Speaker 6: on China in the West over the next several years.
Speaker 4: I think the single biggest story of twenty twenty six
Speaker 4: which could emerge is the fact that China's dumping is
Speaker 4: causing so much pain to so many countries around the world.
Speaker 4: What exactly is going on here, which is that China's
Speaker 4: always known to be an export powerhouse, but over the
Speaker 4: last decade or so, this is beginning to shift in
Speaker 4: one very important way. In the past, yes, China would
Speaker 4: export a lot, and it would also increase prices over
Speaker 4: time last few years, what's begun to happen and this
Speaker 4: has become more acute in the last couple of years
Speaker 4: that China's export volumes have surged, but it is done
Speaker 4: so by cutting prices. So Chinese export prices are declining
Speaker 4: by twenty percent a year, whereas export volumes are surging
Speaker 4: by forty percent, and that is leading to a flood
Speaker 4: of Chinese goods around the world, which is hurting them
Speaker 4: manufacturing sector in places from Europe to Southeast Asia. And
Speaker 4: I suspect that that backlash will really become more intense
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty six because a lot of these countries
Speaker 4: were so focused on fighting Trump's trade battle in twenty
Speaker 4: twenty five, but that seems to have peaked now I
Speaker 4: think the attention is going to turn to what China does,
Speaker 4: and I think that the backlash against this China dumping
Speaker 4: is going to get pretty intense this year.
Speaker 2: Rushier Sharma with a Sirockefeller International celebrating his top ten
Speaker 2: trends for twenty twenty six, published of course by the
Speaker 2: Financial at Times. Sure you got a beautiful sentence here,
Speaker 2: and I just want to get to this for twenty six,
Speaker 2: for twenty seven, for twenty eight, until the money dries up?
Speaker 2: What's the Rushier Sharma timeline? Asking for a friend? Rush
Speaker 2: here is what is the Rushier Sharma X axis look
Speaker 2: like for quote until the dries up?
Speaker 4: Well, I think that the world is very sensitive to
Speaker 4: higher interest rates. I know that some of the previous
Speaker 4: guests are forecasting lower interest rates this year, but I
Speaker 4: think that the real surprise could be that by the
Speaker 4: end of this year we get higher interest rates, particularly
Speaker 4: long term interest rates. And when interest rates go up,
Speaker 4: that's when money really starts to dry up.
Speaker 5: So I think that what you're alluding to here, Tom
Speaker 5: is the fact that I wrote that.
Speaker 4: We have some sort of an AI bubble, but the
Speaker 4: bubble can keep inflating until interest rates go up and
Speaker 4: money dries up. I think that that happens possibly by
Speaker 4: the end of the year, when you end up getting
Speaker 4: higher interest rates as inflation remains sticky, and the fact
Speaker 4: that we still have, you know, like a lot of
Speaker 4: this liquidity propping up financial assets. But the moment interest
Speaker 4: rates go up particually long term interest rates, that's when
Speaker 4: money dries up.
Speaker 3: Don't go away. Because Paul Sweet's gonna save here? Did
Speaker 3: you save me from this?
Speaker 6: I can save good time because he's got ten big
Speaker 6: themes for twenty twenty six, and number ten jumps out
Speaker 6: of me peak alcohol.
Speaker 7: What's going on there?
Speaker 3: Was shre Yeah.
Speaker 4: You know, this is one of the things which surprised
Speaker 4: me too, which is the fact that when I looked
Speaker 4: at the latest Gallop survey of the posters asking Americans
Speaker 4: that how much are they drinking? You know that since
Speaker 4: they've been asking this question since I think nineteen thirty
Speaker 4: eight or something, the lowest share of Americans today are
Speaker 4: drinking alcohol than before, right, So, which is that what
Speaker 4: you're seeing is that people's alcohol consumption is dropping. In
Speaker 4: places like UK even Russia, alcohol consumption is close to
Speaker 4: a record low.
Speaker 5: So I think that that's what's really going.
Speaker 4: On, which is that there's a lot of awareness about
Speaker 4: the negative consequences of alcohol. Even the old line, which
Speaker 4: is that a drink a day is good for you.
Speaker 5: I think that that.
Speaker 4: Myth has also been busted, and so a lot of
Speaker 4: young people in particular are turning off alcohol, and so
Speaker 4: therefore we see the.
Speaker 5: Consequences of that. Then, even as global.
Speaker 4: Stocks continue to rally, one of the worst performing subsectors
Speaker 4: in the world over the last few years have been
Speaker 4: alcohol stocks, and these include wineries, distilleries.
Speaker 5: So you know, we've seen this across the.
Speaker 4: Board, right, So there's a negative, you know, sort of
Speaker 4: attitude towards alcohol leading to lower consumption of alcohol. Some
Speaker 4: of it is getting cannibalized by cannabis as people switch
Speaker 4: to that. But I think that that's a small part
Speaker 4: of the story. The biggest story is that due to
Speaker 4: health awareness, people are turning off alcohol, just like they
Speaker 4: did with cigarettes before that.
Speaker 3: We have Lisametery to help us with that.
Speaker 2: Richard Sharma, my book of the year, What Went Wrong
Speaker 2: with Capitalism, can't say enough about it, but stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast just live weekday
Speaker 1: afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay
Speaker 1: and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: John Bilton had a global multi asset strategy at JP
Speaker 2: Morgan Asset Management.
Speaker 3: We're thrilled you could be with us. Thank you this morning.
Speaker 2: You nail the risk of disinflation and outright deflation. There
Speaker 2: is a raging battle now in the zeitgeist over if
Speaker 2: this disinflation is just lowering inflation or does it lead to.
Speaker 3: Dampened output in Europe and around the world. Does Kasmin
Speaker 3: and Feroli do they see dampened output from the disinflation
Speaker 3: you talk about.
Speaker 8: Well, I think what it does is having seen the
Speaker 8: ECB firmly on Holt probably for most of the years,
Speaker 8: some manly, some of the dates we've seen in the
Speaker 8: past couple of days suggests that just maybe, Jess, maybe
Speaker 8: the ECB might have a Midsummer gift for folks.
Speaker 7: Adding Europe, they've done a lot.
Speaker 8: To bring to bring rates down to what they are
Speaker 8: effectively close to zero in real terms. That's important. Remember
Speaker 8: this is the biggest consumer block on the world. I
Speaker 8: apologies to American consumers. European consumer block is twice as big.
Speaker 8: They just don't spend, they save, So it's really important
Speaker 8: how it feeds through the ECB policy. The European households
Speaker 8: are saving fifteen point three percent of their income each year.
Speaker 2: That's the same thing docimal point, we're saving one point
Speaker 2: five exactly.
Speaker 8: So the point is, but we just need a little
Speaker 8: bit of impetus to set some spending in train.
Speaker 7: There Europe can look pretty good.
Speaker 8: So these these disinflationary forces give the ECB a lot
Speaker 8: of wiggle room. But remember there's a lot of capex
Speaker 8: coming as well through into Europe over the course of
Speaker 8: twenty six, twenty seven, twenty eight under the Made for
Speaker 8: Germany plan, but also on some of the defense spending
Speaker 8: et cetera that's yet to hit the system. So do
Speaker 8: we see a return to the bad old days of
Speaker 8: disinflation even flirting with deflation? Probably not, because this is
Speaker 8: a different picture. We've got fiscal as well as monetary
Speaker 8: right now.
Speaker 6: We had use markets equitym marks perform very well in
Speaker 6: twenty twenty five, but rest of the world did a
Speaker 6: lot better. So what are we doing in twenty six
Speaker 6: to expect than our performance to continue.
Speaker 7: So it's kind of an interesting one.
Speaker 8: There's been some real changes in terms of what's driven
Speaker 8: the equity markets within If we look at the actual
Speaker 8: indices themselves in local currency terms, they're kind of level
Speaker 8: pegging if we take develop markets versus us later on
Speaker 8: the currency. And of course this has been a great period.
Speaker 8: If you've been an American investor buying European, Eurozone, UK, Swiss,
Speaker 8: you've done pretty well because of the currency move as well.
Speaker 8: We think the currency's got a bit further to go,
Speaker 8: but the balance is changing. The differential over the long
Speaker 8: term in terms of what we see as dollar weakening
Speaker 8: against the euro, maybe about fifty sixty basis points a year.
Speaker 8: It could be two percent against the end. It could
Speaker 8: be two point two percent on average over the next
Speaker 8: ten years against the ranimby in the end. So it's
Speaker 8: really the Asian markets we're beginning to get that potential
Speaker 8: for that currency pickup.
Speaker 2: This is what, John, I'm so happy you're here for
Speaker 2: this red sticky. This is what when we do a
Speaker 2: fancy headline Bloomberg, we color it red. Sweety demands ad
Speaker 2: Alaska Air is buying one hundred and ten Boeing aircraft
Speaker 2: in global growth push. We my currency is gloom. People
Speaker 2: don't tune in, they don't listen, they don't watch on
Speaker 2: YouTube unless Lisa, am I right, Unless we're worried.
Speaker 3: What about our children? Yes, we're worried. We're worried.
Speaker 2: Here's Alaska Air betting on global growth. I mean, what
Speaker 2: does your bank see of the optimists just saying no,
Speaker 2: we're not going to worry about this, We're not going
Speaker 2: to worry about disinflation. Let's go what's the John built
Speaker 2: and let's go meet right now?
Speaker 8: Well, I think par it back to pay back to
Speaker 8: basic fundamentals. If we look from nineteen seventy three to
Speaker 8: present day, we can count the NBA recessions. We look
Speaker 8: at the economic data today, it is not pointing to
Speaker 8: a recession in the US, and we've got fiscal stimulus
Speaker 8: and monetary support in the rest of the world. Take
Speaker 8: a look at S and P total returns over those periods.
Speaker 3: In a non.
Speaker 8: Recession year, nine times out of ten, the S and
Speaker 8: P five hundred gives a positive total return. So the
Speaker 8: idea that one would better against the economic momentum today
Speaker 8: when you've got everything aligned, fiscal stimulus, regulatory easing, the
Speaker 8: glagg defect of monetary stimulus all coming together in twenty
Speaker 8: twenty six, I would be betting on equity markets continuing
Speaker 8: to climb a wall of worry and some of the
Speaker 8: investments spending from companies needing to play catch up in
Speaker 8: order to stay relevant in terms of a growing global economy.
Speaker 6: Allocations, stocks, barns, alternatives, thirty thousand foot view. Where's JP
Speaker 6: Morgan asset management these days?
Speaker 7: So we're a little bit overweight equity.
Speaker 8: We're conscious that valuations are kind of peaky, but at
Speaker 8: the same time we think fundamentals are good. We think
Speaker 8: broadening out is important. We're not talking about sort of
Speaker 8: going and playing around in small caps here. We're talking
Speaker 8: broadening out globally across some of those bigger, you know,
Speaker 8: recipients of that capital spending. So broadening out overweight equity.
Speaker 8: We like Hong Kong because of the Asia play. We
Speaker 8: like the UK because we've gone continuing to see some
Speaker 8: decent yield there. We like Japan in terms of bonds.
Speaker 8: You know, we're looking for further steepening in curves. They're
Speaker 8: better likely to cut rates. We think one more time
Speaker 8: this year, and then in terms of the other markets,
Speaker 8: we're getting a little bit tight on credit, so we
Speaker 8: think it's probably equity over credit as we move into
Speaker 8: the ladder stage.
Speaker 3: If you moved to New York or are you based
Speaker 3: in London?
Speaker 7: So I'm based in London.
Speaker 3: Can we take a note? Can you get mister Damon
Speaker 3: on the phone? We need God to come over there,
Speaker 3: over there.
Speaker 7: And there are slights both ways.
Speaker 3: Thank you so much for joining us. Thanks with the
Speaker 3: JP morgan a Bank.
Speaker 2: Stay with those More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: This is the most important conversation of the day because
Speaker 2: you're not paying attention to your four oh one k cam.
Speaker 2: Dawson is I haven't said this in ages OMG rotation.
Speaker 2: What is the character of the rotation going on in
Speaker 2: the markets right now?
Speaker 9: I think we have to appreciate it.
Speaker 10: At the start of the year, we typically do see
Speaker 10: some of this last shall be first kind of rotation
Speaker 10: where the names that had lagged start to lead, at
Speaker 10: least for a short period of time. What's interesting is
Speaker 10: that actually started back in November. The rotation really kicked
Speaker 10: off in November, because that's when we saw the blowoff
Speaker 10: top and some growth shares. They'se traded to an eighty
Speaker 10: five percent premium to value at the peak in October,
Speaker 10: so there was a lot of room for valuations to
Speaker 10: come in. And I think the character of this rotation
Speaker 10: has been one that's been very pro cyclical. If you
Speaker 10: look at what's leading, its things like banks, and you
Speaker 10: have industrials doing better, industrial commodities doing better. So it
Speaker 10: appears that this pro cyclical rotation is coming with a
Speaker 10: narrative of global reacceleration, which I think remains to be
Speaker 10: seen if the data actually supports that.
Speaker 6: Boy, I'm thinking about my inbox over the last i
Speaker 6: don't know, six weeks from the cell side, and their
Speaker 6: twenty six outlooks almost universally positive bullish ten percent, twelve percent,
Speaker 6: fifteen percent expectations for SMP stock performance in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 7: That makes me nervous?
Speaker 6: Does that make you nervous at all?
Speaker 10: There's not a single strategist who's expecting a down year
Speaker 10: in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 11: No, do you expect I gotta make some news this Well, Look,
Speaker 11: we think that we'll have volatility along the way, but
Speaker 11: that there's still room for the markets to press higher
Speaker 11: through the end of the year.
Speaker 10: But here the key point is that in the fourth
Speaker 10: year of the bull market. We've had twenty three bull
Speaker 10: markets that have been three years over the last fifty
Speaker 10: years fifty sixty years or so, and the conclusion is
Speaker 10: about fifty percent of the time they're able to get
Speaker 10: to that fourth year of positive returns. So we have
Speaker 10: a fifty to fifty chance of being able to deliver
Speaker 10: positive returns in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 6: Earnings, I guess that's the good news for bulls out
Speaker 6: there because of the expectations are in twenty twenty six,
Speaker 6: again double digit growth in earning twelve thirteen percent growth
Speaker 6: in earnings. Is that enough to support this valuation this market?
Speaker 10: That has been what has supported the valuation through twenty
Speaker 10: twenty five, the fact that you saw the vast majority
Speaker 10: of returns in twenty five driven by earnings growth, and
Speaker 10: that's expected to continue in twenty six. So if we
Speaker 10: break down the twenty twenty six earnings number, it's three
Speaker 10: hundred and ten dollars a share. That implies an acceleration
Speaker 10: in the top line. That's interesting because if you look
Speaker 10: at consensus forecasts for GDP, consensus is expecting a deceleration
Speaker 10: in nominal GDP growth. Remember, sales are nominal. The other
Speaker 10: important point is that you have over two hundred basis
Speaker 10: points of Martian expansion that's already been baked into current forecasts.
Speaker 10: So we think if we're if we're thinking about what
Speaker 10: drive drive markets over the course of the next couple
Speaker 10: of months, it's whether or not you take the over
Speaker 10: under on that earnings number.
Speaker 2: Karon Dawson with New ed We we welcome all of
Speaker 2: you across the nation, including her Florida.
Speaker 5: We're doing Florida.
Speaker 3: Music today for Cameron Dawson. Do you know who Leonards
Speaker 3: Skinner is?
Speaker 4: Oh?
Speaker 9: I was thinking you're gonna go with Tom Petty, but yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just thought you were too young to know
Speaker 3: Leonard Skinner.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, folks, we're gonna play free Bird.
Speaker 3: Get over it.
Speaker 9: I'm going to have a simple man.
Speaker 7: Yes, yeah, okay.
Speaker 2: I look Kim Dawson at this equity market I don't
Speaker 2: see the exuberants out there. I know there's Robin out
Speaker 2: exuberants in. You know, Lisa's kids are traded on the couch,
Speaker 2: But it's not like a three year double digit OMG.
Speaker 2: Stocks are going up field, is it?
Speaker 10: And to support your notion of there being a lack
Speaker 10: of exuberance, you look at the Deutsche Bank and boldmin
Speaker 10: SAX positioning indicators, and they're showing that institutions are effectively neutral.
Speaker 9: You cannot say that about households.
Speaker 10: Though retail investors are max overweight, max all in. You've
Speaker 10: seen huge growth in marginal imbalances. AAI positioning is at
Speaker 10: seventy one point two percent.
Speaker 5: Wow, I didn't know that.
Speaker 10: That's that's back to the peak from twenty eighteen and
Speaker 10: twenty twenty one.
Speaker 9: So households are all in.
Speaker 3: So institutions under own NVIDIA.
Speaker 10: Likely yes, simply because they have positioning size caps.
Speaker 9: At the end of the day, when you have a.
Speaker 10: Market that's so very concentrated, and you have certain mutual
Speaker 10: funds that cannot own positions as large as what some
Speaker 10: of these names are, by definition, they're institutionally forced to
Speaker 10: being underweight.
Speaker 9: Some of these leaders.
Speaker 6: Fixed income is a great performer in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 6: What do you think about the bomb market in twenty tins.
Speaker 10: So, because we're starting this year at lower yields, we're
Speaker 10: actually in our strategic tactical acid allocations, I should say,
Speaker 10: actually taking some money out of fixed income and allocating
Speaker 10: into other areas somebody, because you're not getting as much
Speaker 10: of a return as you were at the beginning of
Speaker 10: the year, given yields are lower and the strong performance
Speaker 10: that we've had this year, so we don't think that
Speaker 10: there's a lot of room for spreads to compress that
Speaker 10: much further. In high yield and investment grade, they're pretty
Speaker 10: darn tight. But note that they are thirty basis points
Speaker 10: wider today than they were at the start of twenty five.
Speaker 10: So really you can, in fact squeeze blood from a stone.
Speaker 2: Cameron Dawson with us a nice lengthy interview. We're going
Speaker 2: to continue with this, Dawson. Kevin Gordon came in yesterday.
Speaker 2: Can we take a forty five second short biscuit break.
Speaker 2: Kevin Gordon came in yesterday with schwab and he brought
Speaker 2: in pumpkin honey cookie and it's all in Korean.
Speaker 3: I can't understand it. Let's hand these these around control them,
Speaker 3: dat on them. They were looking over them a full one,
Speaker 3: you know, Lisa he our tin director turned around.
Speaker 9: I'm going to pass it down.
Speaker 3: It's it's just Kevin and Lazie Zanders. Thank you so much.
Speaker 3: That was really easy. We learned a lot from them.
Speaker 3: Kim Dawson at Charles Schwaz about.
Speaker 2: This retail cooking, what do you tell retail in a
Speaker 2: famed Cam Dawson.
Speaker 10: Seminar, Well, I think that that the key message is
Speaker 10: when we think about volatility in markets and as being
Speaker 10: an individual investor, the most important thing is to make
Speaker 10: sure that you were not positioned in a way that
Speaker 10: when volatility eventually does strike, that you were forced to
Speaker 10: sell positions that you shouldn't. That's the only way to
Speaker 10: destroy value over the long run. So what that means
Speaker 10: is not being over concentrated to certain factors, not having
Speaker 10: too much leverage, and making sure that the overall allocation
Speaker 10: is not so extended that if you have the quick
Speaker 10: he needs during a time out of an inevitable volatility,
Speaker 10: you don't have to sell your equities.
Speaker 6: What I mean, one of the things that investors I'm
Speaker 6: talking about is we need this market the broaden out.
Speaker 6: Do we need this market the broaden out, or can
Speaker 6: we just kind of live the way we've been living
Speaker 6: in our list of years.
Speaker 10: Well, you do in the sense that the MAG seven
Speaker 10: is seeing a deceleration in earnings growth. So we've been
Speaker 10: in a super normal earnings growth period the last three years.
Speaker 10: MAG seven has delivered two hundred percent earnings growth. That
Speaker 10: compares to the equal Weight at just eighteen percent.
Speaker 2: Stop this is too important, Paul Brilliant. We got double
Speaker 2: digit earnings growth coming, but it's all skewed towards twenty
Speaker 2: five stocks, right.
Speaker 10: Well, see, consensus is expecting that to broaden out. You
Speaker 10: have this expectation by consensus that equal Weight is going
Speaker 10: to start to catch up, not quite to the point
Speaker 10: of MAG seven, but close that gap. But the thing
Speaker 10: is people were expecting that at the beginning of twenty
Speaker 10: five and guess what happened. Mag seven surprise of the upside,
Speaker 10: equal Weight surprise to the downside.
Speaker 2: Kevin Gordon called in, Tom, how is it? And I said,
Speaker 2: it's a rice cookie. It's very Korean cookie. Dawson on
Speaker 2: the Cosby and buying Asia this year, do you buy internationals.
Speaker 3: Do you buy Korean cookies?
Speaker 10: Well, don't forget that Korean and the Korean Index, the
Speaker 10: COSPY is about thirty seven percent made up of just
Speaker 10: Samsung and sk Hignex, So you when you buy the cospy,
Speaker 10: you were buying that. But also remember there's a lot
Speaker 10: of casino capitalism and speculation that happens in the Korean Index,
Speaker 10: so it has very pronounced boom bus cycles.
Speaker 9: So know that you're playing with fire.
Speaker 10: Live by the sword, die by the sword kind of
Speaker 10: of mentality when it comes to trading in those areas.
Speaker 2: You know that twenty four years ago when we were
Speaker 2: starting to act, that was one of the names on
Speaker 2: the list of the show Casino capitalism.
Speaker 7: Really Yeah, we tried it.
Speaker 9: We tried and it ended up on the cutting room floor.
Speaker 2: Yeah we Ken Dawson, thank you so much for do
Speaker 2: it well. Seriously, stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveys
Speaker 2: coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 3: We're their newspapers, lisamit to.
Speaker 12: Okay, this one is right up your alley because're away
Speaker 12: talking about LinkedIn, right, Okay. So apparently more people are
Speaker 12: logging onto LinkedIn, and it's not just for looking for
Speaker 12: a job. So if you look at the numbers, so
Speaker 12: revenue Microsoft phone site jumped to seventeen billion and twenty
Speaker 12: twenty five from seven billion, and twenty twenty membership doubled
Speaker 12: to one point three billion. So what the Wall Street
Speaker 12: Journal did is they spoke with a couple of people.
Speaker 12: They said that the reason why is because people like
Speaker 12: the fact that you have to put your real name
Speaker 12: on the site.
Speaker 3: Okay.
Speaker 12: It says it helps with toxicity, misinformation scams, things like that,
Speaker 12: and LinkedIn is saying it's actually helping because people, you know,
Speaker 12: are more careful with what they post, you know, because
Speaker 12: a recruiter could be looking or you know, things like that.
Speaker 12: They're smarter conversations on LinkedIn.
Speaker 9: That's what they're saying.
Speaker 3: Major shutout.
Speaker 2: Shaali Basek said to me like three four years ago,
Speaker 2: he's stupid, get back on LinkedIn.
Speaker 3: She was right.
Speaker 2: Dan Roth saved LinkedIn for Microsoft, and it's just as
Speaker 2: you describe, Lisa, the quality I can't say enough about
Speaker 2: subscribing to LinkedIn.
Speaker 3: Not for Tom Keene, not even for Lisa Mantay or
Speaker 3: Paul Sweeney, for our guests like Tina Fordham. They're all
Speaker 3: out there, smart smart.
Speaker 12: Smart, I do, and I just feel for me personally,
Speaker 12: I feel a more of a trust issue, like I
Speaker 12: trust things better on LinkedIn.
Speaker 3: Major Dan Roth, who did that for Microsoft? What do
Speaker 3: you got next?
Speaker 5: Okay?
Speaker 12: This is an interesting question that the journal asked, what
Speaker 12: happened to happy hour?
Speaker 7: Okay?
Speaker 12: Because people are.
Speaker 9: Interesting for me or for Paul, people are drinking less.
Speaker 12: Companies are kind of reeling in those fun budgets, you know,
Speaker 12: the epic holiday parties things like that. I remember the
Speaker 12: time and the boss would come to the bar and
Speaker 12: just drop down the corporate car.
Speaker 7: You know you do that. And I remember that.
Speaker 2: Sparta, could we get Rotto keeper of the Ax to
Speaker 2: drop the corporate car?
Speaker 3: Happening?
Speaker 9: Not happening anymore.
Speaker 12: But you know, people working from home and then those
Speaker 12: people who do go to the office, they want to
Speaker 12: be home early, like you know, by six in bed early.
Speaker 12: That's the new generation. They have to get their full
Speaker 12: eight you know, nine hours sleep. So it's a different
Speaker 12: kind and what people are saying is that they're missing
Speaker 12: out on those opportunities to schmooz with the boss.
Speaker 6: Or this is how it worked on Pain Webber in
Speaker 6: the eighties. Imply our equity training desk market closes at
Speaker 6: four four fifteen hurlies in forty eighth and six, not.
Speaker 7: Every day, every day, four days a week.
Speaker 6: And you get you know, got a cocktail too. Then
Speaker 6: you go to the train and that's how you roll.
Speaker 6: But I mean, or you stayed later.
Speaker 2: But I remember the train cars out the Gardens City
Speaker 2: and Londer Island as well.
Speaker 3: It's cars, you're gone.
Speaker 2: And the key thing Paul said is you stop working
Speaker 2: three thirty four, four fifteen or so.
Speaker 3: Now everybody's ordered on pizza and working till seven.
Speaker 6: And then I went into investment banking and that stuff.
Speaker 6: That's yeah, shoulder state on the training desk.
Speaker 5: One more squeeze then to say.
Speaker 12: Okay, this one, I'll go to sports.
Speaker 5: Okay.
Speaker 12: So the Blue Jay shortstop Bobashet, he's a free agent, right, Okay,
Speaker 12: So he's getting interest from a lot of teams, including
Speaker 12: the Yankees. I'm just saying, but a local steakhouse is
Speaker 12: actually making him an offer to stay in Toronto. They're
Speaker 12: offering free steak for life. Oh okay, that's a good cell.
Speaker 12: That's a really good set.
Speaker 9: It's it's animal.
Speaker 12: It's a high end steakhouse in downtown Toronto. He said
Speaker 12: it's one of his favorites, and they said, yep, no negotiations,
Speaker 12: no fine print, just reserve a table and they will
Speaker 12: give him free steak for life.
Speaker 3: He's the kind of player of his culture and character
Speaker 3: every day.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 3: I mean, he's great, but it's it's about the attitude
Speaker 3: as well.
Speaker 5: I love it.
Speaker 3: I love that he's the way she rolls and he
Speaker 3: thank you the newspapers.
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