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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
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Speaker 3: Let's get to the panel.
Speaker 2: Joining Usnaws Mohammad al Erin of Queen's College, Cambridge, alongside
Speaker 2: Black Rocks Jeff Rosenberg. Gent's great to catch up with
Speaker 2: you both, Muhammed.
Speaker 3: First to you.
Speaker 2: You've had a bit of time to pour over this one.
Speaker 2: What's the big one for you?
Speaker 4: So I'd like to look at this in four ways.
Speaker 5: One the very narrow sense, this is a really strong
Speaker 5: report on the demand side, not on the supply side,
Speaker 5: on the demand side, but strong in terms of the
Speaker 5: for h employees, strong in terms of wages paid, et cetera.
Speaker 4: It does close the door on a July weight cut.
Speaker 4: I think that is it.
Speaker 5: We almost regardless of what the CPI number says next week.
Speaker 5: But then step back and ask the question of reconciliation
Speaker 5: with other data, and then the story gets a lot
Speaker 5: more interesting. We have this situation where the backward looking
Speaker 5: data is strong, the forward looking data is weak. So
Speaker 5: we've got to sort of reconcile these two things, which
Speaker 5: leaves us to the point that Lisa raised, which is
Speaker 5: what is your view of the economy, Because if you
Speaker 5: don't know have that view, you're going to continue to
Speaker 5: get whibsored for quite a few months, and you're going
Speaker 5: to miss windows of opportunity that are really important.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Jeff, this is really difficult.
Speaker 2: It's a question we both asked my mckaid, can you
Speaker 2: reconcile this data this morning with the data we've had
Speaker 2: or week, First of all, your view on this morning's number,
Speaker 2: And second of all, to Muhammed's point, can you reckon
Speaker 2: saw this with what we're looking at elsewhere?
Speaker 6: Yeah, a couple of things.
Speaker 7: I mean, the big market reaction is not only because
Speaker 7: this is a strong report on its own, but it
Speaker 7: is stronger than what people were expecting going in. And
Speaker 7: there were two things that were kind of undermined relative
Speaker 7: to those expectations.
Speaker 6: Number one, as Mike was.
Speaker 7: Talking about the seasonal flows expected to push down, we
Speaker 7: overwhelmed those. And then there was a pull forward argument
Speaker 7: around warm weather and the construction number that Mike just
Speaker 7: mentioned was very strong. So you didn't see either of
Speaker 7: those things.
Speaker 6: Muhammad mentioned closing.
Speaker 7: The door on July, opening the door or reopening the
Speaker 7: door a little bit wider on the debate about whether
Speaker 7: or not policy is indeed as restrictive as the FED
Speaker 7: thinks it is. And this is a little more evidence
Speaker 7: to bring that debate back into the fore that you
Speaker 7: have the big financial conditions easing that's offsetting the tightening,
Speaker 7: and we may not be as tight as we think
Speaker 7: we are.
Speaker 8: Mohammed, I'd love your thoughts on that.
Speaker 1: At a time where your framework does expect some more
Speaker 1: significant weakening.
Speaker 3: Does this data change that to you?
Speaker 1: Does slamming the door in a July rate cut seem
Speaker 1: reasonable to you? Or are you concerned that this is
Speaker 1: basically the wrong signal at a time where what comes
Speaker 1: next looks different than what came before.
Speaker 5: Look, it's reasonable for a FED that is over the
Speaker 5: data dependent, There's no way that can cut or signal
Speaker 5: a cut in July with this data, they would have
Speaker 5: to change their reaction function and be public about it.
Speaker 5: And I don't see the FED doing this. So that's
Speaker 5: why the door is shut. Now should it be shut
Speaker 5: is a much more interesting debate. You know, my view,
Speaker 5: we are in a weakening economy. There are no spad
Speaker 5: tires to speak of anymore. There's no pandemic savings, there's
Speaker 5: no fiscal huge new fiscal impulse coming.
Speaker 4: There are no spad tires in this economy.
Speaker 5: So if you get it wrong and you weaken too quickly,
Speaker 5: it's going to be a very difficult mistake to correct.
Speaker 5: The problem is which is the other bit of my
Speaker 5: view that you know, is we are living in a
Speaker 5: secularly inflationary world. Secularly inflation is going to be higher
Speaker 5: because of all the transitions going on. Domestically, we no
Speaker 5: longer talk about liberalization, deregulation, fiscal prudence, We talk about
Speaker 5: trade restriction, we talk about industrial policy, we talk about
Speaker 5: fiscally responsibility, and globally we talk about fragmentation. All that
Speaker 5: means a more inflationary world, which then raises the question
Speaker 5: as to what should be the right inflation target. So
Speaker 5: if you put all this together, it does shut the
Speaker 5: door for this FED, but it will not shut the
Speaker 5: door on a very active debate that's going on that
Speaker 5: tries to look forward not back.
Speaker 1: Well, we'll get to Jeff for one second, but Mohammed,
Speaker 1: just to follow up on that, are you basically saying
Speaker 1: that the chance of a harder landing increases the longer
Speaker 1: the FED does not cut rates even if it appears
Speaker 1: strong on the surface.
Speaker 5: I do because I focus a lot on the forward
Speaker 5: looking data and that is weakening significantly. So yes, that's
Speaker 5: where I am. But I understand that if you're data dependent,
Speaker 5: there's no way you're going to come anywhere near my
Speaker 5: view because you would have to completely change your paradigm.
Speaker 3: Jeff, would you agree with that?
Speaker 7: Well, I think there's a little bit of a segmentation
Speaker 7: going on in terms of where is interest rate policy biting,
Speaker 7: and it is in the lower end of the consumer side.
Speaker 7: The flip side of that is the wealth effect.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 7: This is a FED that is basically said, if inflation
Speaker 7: is stronger, if growth is stronger, we'll just wait. They've
Speaker 7: given us a very asymmetric outlook with regards to their
Speaker 7: reaction to their data dependence.
Speaker 6: What that has done is basically.
Speaker 7: Given the green light for financial market conditions to be
Speaker 7: very easy, and the transmission of that into the economy
Speaker 7: is a very strong wealth effect for the predominant sources
Speaker 7: of where most of consumption comes from. So you do
Speaker 7: see the weakening that Muhammad's talking about, but the waiting
Speaker 7: of that weakening I think is less. And so yes,
Speaker 7: growth is slowing, but it's slowing to a level that
Speaker 7: is still well above trend, and so you don't get
Speaker 7: as much of the constraint and the push down on inflation.
Speaker 7: The FED is basically saying we're okay with that. And
Speaker 7: I think that's why you're pushing back with this data
Speaker 7: today on this notion of we're really restrictive. I'm not
Speaker 7: sure they're as restrictive as they think they are, and
Speaker 7: the policy of asymmetry to data reaction is kind of
Speaker 7: pushing against that by pushing up or easing financial condition.
Speaker 2: If you want just joining us, welcome to the program.
Speaker 2: Fourteen minutes ago, a blowout jumps report a big monster
Speaker 2: upside surprise to seventy two is the number one eighty
Speaker 2: was the estimate. Two standouts here not just the headline number,
Speaker 2: also wage growth coming in hotter than expected at zero
Speaker 2: point four percent versus the estimate in our survey of
Speaker 2: zero point three percent month over month. Straight away market reaction,
Speaker 2: equities gap in lower equity features on the s and
Speaker 2: P five hundred, down by zero point five percent, on
Speaker 2: the NASTAG down by point five on the Russell down
Speaker 2: more than one percent. Turn a page and get to
Speaker 2: the bomb market. And here's your why. Bigger pricing at
Speaker 2: the front end up by eleven or twelve basis points
Speaker 2: on a two year, up eleven on a ten year,
Speaker 2: as well to four thirty nine eighty one. You have
Speaker 2: to point out, though, Lisa, when you look at these moves,
Speaker 2: this is below where we were a week ago, because
Speaker 2: we had a string of weaker than expected data going
Speaker 2: into this print, and this bond market rallied hard coming
Speaker 2: into this morning.
Speaker 1: You know, I think that the conversation that we've been
Speaker 1: having with both Mohammed really the way he's talking about
Speaker 1: the idea that the weaker data really does point to
Speaker 1: something that is more sustainable that can't be offset from
Speaker 1: these numbers, and then Jeff saying, well, this reintroduces the
Speaker 1: debate really about are we restrictive? This is the seesaw,
Speaker 1: and frankly, the markets are kind of tipping it in
Speaker 1: one way or the other. I mean, that's what we
Speaker 1: heard from Allen Zeenner that basically the more enthusiastic this
Speaker 1: market gets, the harder it is to get to the
Speaker 1: fed's goal. So it becomes a sort of chicken and
Speaker 1: egg race, you know. And this is what's making it
Speaker 1: really difficult to understand where we're at, because it's like
Speaker 1: that scientific experiment that we affect the experiment as we
Speaker 1: observe it.
Speaker 6: That's where we're are right now.
Speaker 2: We shape the events, we anticipate that kind of thing.
Speaker 2: Can just imagine Kashgari walking into the two day meeting
Speaker 2: next week sort of banging the table, told you so,
Speaker 2: how we need to have this conversation right now?
Speaker 8: Well, he would be right at that moment.
Speaker 1: And then they're going to be the people who believe
Speaker 1: what Muhammad Lariat is saying, which is, if you look
Speaker 1: at the data, there is weakening coming down the pike,
Speaker 1: and you can't ignore that.
Speaker 6: It is a fraught moment.
Speaker 1: I actually think it's going to be a very difficult
Speaker 1: debate next.
Speaker 2: Week Mohammed, we know what you think they should do.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about what they will do. How is Sham
Speaker 2: and Powell going to navigate this news conference given the
Speaker 2: information we just received this morning.
Speaker 5: I think he's going to maintain maximum optionality, He's going
Speaker 5: to retain his data dependency mantra, and he's going to say,
Speaker 5: you know, we need more confidence. He's going to use
Speaker 5: the word confidence and patients. I suspect, and I said,
Speaker 5: you know, John, I find it fascinating. Two things I
Speaker 5: find it fascinating. First, I think it's a shame that
Speaker 5: we've broken the record of I think twenty eight straight
Speaker 5: months of the uninformed rate below four percent. That was
Speaker 5: a nice record to have. But what I find really interesting,
Speaker 5: and Lisa referred to it, and you refer to it,
Speaker 5: is that the bond market has been much more volatile
Speaker 5: on the data than the stock market.
Speaker 4: The downce side surprises.
Speaker 5: We had moved yields in a massive way, moved moved
Speaker 5: the commodity complex in a massive way, had where did
Speaker 5: a little.
Speaker 4: Impact on equity, and we're seeing the reverse today. And
Speaker 4: I find this absolutely fascinating.
Speaker 5: And I would be very curious to hear what Jeff
Speaker 5: has to say about you know this, this difference in
Speaker 5: actual volatility between these two segments.
Speaker 3: Jeff, what do you make of that?
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a great point, and I think it's explained
Speaker 7: by this other big topic that in other contexts, it
Speaker 7: would be the only thing we're talking about, and that's
Speaker 7: the AI boom. And so you look at technology as
Speaker 7: a share of the S and P five hundred, it's
Speaker 7: forty three percent market cap.
Speaker 6: This is a different story.
Speaker 7: I think where you want to see or where you
Speaker 7: see or where you want to look for to see
Speaker 7: the interest rate impact is in small caps, and I
Speaker 7: think we'll see that this morning and a much bigger outcome.
Speaker 7: And so it's numerator versus denominator. The numerator effect of technology,
Speaker 7: these incredible amounts of cap X and cash flows is
Speaker 7: just overwhelming the denominator for that index. And you see
Speaker 7: that particularly in growth. You see it in the S
Speaker 7: and P five hundred with a very high weighting. So
Speaker 7: I think that's what explains the higher volatility.
Speaker 6: You also see it in kind of macro.
Speaker 7: Look at the move index, look at interest rate volatility
Speaker 7: relative to VIX volatility, and the VIX volatility is compressed
Speaker 7: because you have the text store. It's also compressed because
Speaker 7: you have a very low degree of cross market correlation
Speaker 7: going on in equities right now.
Speaker 6: So there are some really important differences.
Speaker 7: Going on in the translation of macro data into these indices,
Speaker 7: and the micro stories going on in equities are as
Speaker 7: powerful or overwhelming the macro story of the variability that
Speaker 7: Lisa just mentioned. You know, are we too hot?
Speaker 6: Are we too cold? That you see reflected in the
Speaker 6: bond markets. Every data print and.
Speaker 1: Certainly the macro environment is whipside, and we have been
Speaker 1: talking about the frustration of where to get conviction. Jeff,
Speaker 1: you where you really raise this point about this really
Speaker 1: questions how restrictive we actually are from your vantage point.
Speaker 1: Does this print of two hundred and seventy two thousand
Speaker 1: new jobs being created in the month of may change
Speaker 1: your view about the balance of risks of both the
Speaker 1: FED as well.
Speaker 7: As for rates, Well, it's not my view that really matters.
Speaker 7: I think will the FED change its view and I
Speaker 7: really don't think they will. This asymmetric response that if
Speaker 7: ination slows, if growth slows, and I think the growth
Speaker 7: picture is going to be as important, the FED will
Speaker 7: increase its probabilities it will want to cut rates for
Speaker 7: the reasons that Mohammad said, They're more worried about.
Speaker 6: Now losing the war.
Speaker 7: They won the battle on inflation, they don't want to
Speaker 7: lose the war on the soft landing. And so because
Speaker 7: of the asymmetry, I think that eases some of the
Speaker 7: market reaction, the broader market reaction, obviously not from the
Speaker 7: day reaction to today.
Speaker 6: So I don't think much has changed there.
Speaker 7: I think if they were to start talking a little
Speaker 7: bit more about the concerns about maybe we're not restrictive,
Speaker 7: if you had more growth data, they'll get the question
Speaker 7: eventually again, you know what about hiking rates.
Speaker 6: He'll dismiss it.
Speaker 7: And I think that asymmetry is still with us, and
Speaker 7: I think that's supportive to the financial market outlook.
Speaker 6: And so I don't think there's a huge change there.
Speaker 2: Jeff just at a record We care what you think.
Speaker 2: We care a lot about what you think. I think
Speaker 2: this story written yesterday by Rich Miller ally care at Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Got to share this with you because there will be
Speaker 2: some of you out there asking do these numbers this
Speaker 2: morning overstate the strength of this economy? Are we measuring
Speaker 2: things the right way? Is this accurate. Data published Wednesday
Speaker 2: by the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests payrolls might have
Speaker 2: grown about sixty thousand less per month on average last
Speaker 2: year than the roughly two hundred and fifty thousand run
Speaker 2: rate derived from the agency's monthly employment report. Mike McKay,
Speaker 2: that question is going to reverberate through the weekend after
Speaker 2: that number this morning.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting.
Speaker 9: You're going to have a lot of debate over this
Speaker 9: because Steve Stanley from Zen Tandeer points out that we
Speaker 9: had basically the same situation at this time last year,
Speaker 9: and then the QCW numbers, the ones you're referring to,
Speaker 9: were revised down and we basically didn't have much of
Speaker 9: a significant change in payrolls overall. They don't give us
Speaker 9: the number until August, so we'll be waiting for that.
Speaker 9: It's just before Jackson all. So it may be that
Speaker 9: it's not as bad as these numbers suggests, but if
Speaker 9: it is, this doesn't fit with that.
Speaker 2: It race is the question, Lisa, we having the right conversation.
Speaker 2: Something we have to think about.
Speaker 9: Well, here's the thing you got to worry about is
Speaker 9: the FED has to deal with.
Speaker 6: The numbers that it has, and so if.
Speaker 9: These numbers come in much weaker when they're revised later on,
Speaker 9: everybody's going to say, well, the FED missed it, but
Speaker 9: they don't know.
Speaker 1: Well, this is a reason why, and it's actually wonderful
Speaker 1: to have muhammadan this is a reason why. He says,
Speaker 1: this is one of the fatal flaws of data dependency, especially.
Speaker 3: When the data is messy. And that is the moment that.
Speaker 2: We are clearly in, Mohammad, Let's get to it. Do
Speaker 2: you think we are having the right conversation? Obviously, based
Speaker 2: on what you've told us over the last few weeks,
Speaker 2: you don't think we are.
Speaker 5: Now, Look, I think we're having the right conversation on
Speaker 5: based on the data we have. It's very difficult to
Speaker 5: have a conversation on contrafactual data. But what we are
Speaker 5: being reminded over and over again is how difficult this
Speaker 5: economy has become to understand, you know, John, go back
Speaker 5: to August twenty twenty, twenty twenty two, the famous eight
Speaker 5: minute speech with pain. Go back to the Bloomberg headline
Speaker 5: of October twenty twenty two, one hundred percent of probability.
Speaker 5: The US goes into recession and then look what actually happened.
Speaker 4: It just gives you a sense of if.
Speaker 5: You become two data dependent and don't take longer term views,
Speaker 5: you end up risking real mistakes.
Speaker 4: And that's what I'm really worried about. John.
Speaker 5: There are some very clear secular trends going on. Jeff
Speaker 5: mentioned what's going on in AI. That's one of several
Speaker 5: secular trends that are going to be with us for
Speaker 5: a while that we've got to incorporate and stop looking
Speaker 5: simply at the view mirror. You have to both look
Speaker 5: at the wave from mirror and through the windscreen.
Speaker 10: Jeff.
Speaker 1: Final word, your big takeaway.
Speaker 7: Well, it's just clearly a big surprise, down big downside
Speaker 7: surprise relative to expectations. July's door is closed, opening the
Speaker 7: door on a debate about how restrictive FED policy really is.
Speaker 2: Can I just ask you both your best guest for
Speaker 2: the doubt plum next week to a one to a
Speaker 2: one on that doubt plot.
Speaker 3: It cuts this year Hammed first to you one, Jeff.
Speaker 2: Just for contrast, I'll go with two, okay, Jeff Rosen
Speaker 2: fact black rop, Mohammad Larian Jens appreciate it. I know
Speaker 2: you would as you trouble, Muhammad. We know that Jeff
Speaker 2: is too appreciate it.
Speaker 3: Gents, thank you.
Speaker 11: Welcome to our TV and radio audiences worldwide. Welcome to
Speaker 11: the Labor Department today. We are here with the acting
Speaker 11: Labor Secretary, Julie Sue At Secretary is great to see
Speaker 11: you this morning. Thank you for joining us on another
Speaker 11: job's day. We've got a bit of a mixed signal
Speaker 11: here in this job's report. More payrolls than expected and
Speaker 11: a higher unemployment rate than expected, which survey household or
Speaker 11: establishment is reflecting reality.
Speaker 8: Well, this is another very strong jobs report.
Speaker 12: I'm not going to get tired of coming here and
Speaker 12: telling you that we are continuing to experience very strong,
Speaker 12: stable and steady growth. So it's two hundred and seventy
Speaker 12: two thousand jobs created last month. The unemployment rate has
Speaker 12: remained at or below four percent for thirty months straight.
Speaker 12: That's still the longest since the nineteen sixties. And at
Speaker 12: the same time, real wages you know, over the year
Speaker 12: are up four point one percent, So.
Speaker 8: Workers are doing better in.
Speaker 12: An economy in which the President has said, when we
Speaker 12: focus on workers and worker well being, we're going.
Speaker 8: To do what's right for the economy and for the country.
Speaker 11: When you look under the hood, do you find that
Speaker 11: four hundred thousand, even more than four hundred.
Speaker 10: Thousand people left the labor force in May.
Speaker 11: The participation rate is not back where it was before
Speaker 11: COVID right now, how do you explain that?
Speaker 8: Well, so let's say, you know, the prime.
Speaker 12: Age labor force participation rate remains very, very strong, and
Speaker 12: it's worth noting that again women's labor force participation rate hit.
Speaker 8: Another historic high.
Speaker 12: So last month we said it was the highest since
Speaker 12: nineteen forty eight when this data was begun to be collected.
Speaker 8: It's now a little bit higher than that.
Speaker 12: Even so, women continue to power our economic recovery. At
Speaker 12: the same time, you know, we are seeing again strong participation.
Speaker 12: People are in the job market. People have come off
Speaker 12: the sidelines. People are looking for jobs and they're finding them.
Speaker 12: Where there has been a little bit of you know,
Speaker 12: of a very small uptick in the unemployment rate again
Speaker 12: still out or below four percent for the longest stretch
Speaker 12: in decades, but has to do with young people ages
Speaker 12: twenty to twenty four, who are a bit of transition. Really,
Speaker 12: if we think about what may right may as a
Speaker 12: period of transition for all.
Speaker 8: Of us parents with kids who graduate and maybe.
Speaker 12: Move and you are looking for different jobs during that time.
Speaker 11: You can tell a great story and put a great
Speaker 11: headline number on that unemployment.
Speaker 10: Story as you are right now.
Speaker 11: But when you look under the hood, you do see
Speaker 11: some elements of weakness compared to the payroll Survey, And
Speaker 11: I wonder, while you're happy where it is now, if
Speaker 11: you worry about where we're going to be six months
Speaker 11: from now, if this is a slowing job market.
Speaker 12: Well, the payroll survey really is the gold standard when
Speaker 12: it comes to the unemployment rate, right, this is the
Speaker 12: you know, it's the largest by far of any data set,
Speaker 12: including the household survey.
Speaker 8: That is used. And so again, I don't think there's.
Speaker 12: Any way to paint this as other than continued strong,
Speaker 12: stable and steady growth under President Biden's leadership and proof
Speaker 12: of his theory that if we invest in America, we
Speaker 12: can create good jobs in communities and crowd in private
Speaker 12: investment in order to do that. And you know, as
Speaker 12: I travel the country, I'm seeing the benefits of that.
Speaker 11: We've talked a lot about the impacts that immigration has
Speaker 11: on our job market, can be for better or worse,
Speaker 11: depending on the trend that you're looking at. And there's
Speaker 11: an analysis from Steve England Standard Chartered Bank that we
Speaker 11: looked at this week that estimates about half of the
Speaker 11: job growth since October can be attributed to undocumented migrants.
Speaker 11: That it's somewhere in the area of one hundred and
Speaker 11: nine thousand a mon. If the President's executive order put
Speaker 11: in place just days ago lowers the threshold, lowers the
Speaker 11: numbers of undocumented immigrants entering the country, what does that
Speaker 11: mean for the job market. Do you see numbers like
Speaker 11: that in your modeling.
Speaker 8: I mean, I haven't.
Speaker 12: Seen that study. I would actually question those numbers based on.
Speaker 8: What we see.
Speaker 12: This is a situation where one we're not talking about
Speaker 12: dividing a small pie into smaller pieces.
Speaker 8: We're talking about a much bigger pie overall.
Speaker 12: So more jobs, more people in the labor market, more
Speaker 12: opportunity for all. Since the President came into office, again,
Speaker 12: we've talked about this, you know, fifteen million jobs created.
Speaker 12: That is a fifteen million families, fifteen million individuals who
Speaker 12: are having the benefits of a good job that might
Speaker 12: not have had that before. I would also say that
Speaker 12: it is true that there has been you know, immigration
Speaker 12: based growth also, and that has been true with throughout
Speaker 12: our nation's history, right that immigrants have helped to do
Speaker 12: jobs and help field the economy.
Speaker 8: But the majority of this job.
Speaker 12: Growth that we're talking about has gone to native born workers.
Speaker 11: We'll talk to me about the other side of this story,
Speaker 11: and that's immigration reform H one B, H two B.
Speaker 11: We spend all day talking about border security in Washington.
Speaker 11: What does our job market need in terms of attracting
Speaker 11: talent from other countries legally?
Speaker 12: I mean, it's such an important question, right, This is
Speaker 12: why since day one, President Biden has called for the
Speaker 12: kinds of comprehensive immigration reform that would address some of
Speaker 12: the challenges that our system has created.
Speaker 8: Job market look like with that help, what what our
Speaker 8: job market.
Speaker 6: Look like with you got that reform?
Speaker 8: Right? Well, so we do adminster.
Speaker 12: You know, we have in this administration increased the number
Speaker 12: of H two B workers that have come in. We
Speaker 12: recently did a rule around H two A workers making
Speaker 12: sure that when migrant workers come to this country through
Speaker 12: legal means, that they're also protected right, that they are
Speaker 12: protected for their own good, but also so that they're
Speaker 12: being here doesn't take away from you know, the good
Speaker 12: wages in those industries, so you know, but the bigger
Speaker 12: picture is that there does need to be comprehensive reform.
Speaker 12: The President has called for that, and frankly, Congress needs.
Speaker 8: To do its job.
Speaker 11: There's something that I don't want to get too deep
Speaker 11: in the weeds called the birth death model that our
Speaker 11: analysts set Bloomberg Economics, are looking at that would suggest
Speaker 11: some of the companies that we've seen closing might not
Speaker 11: be reflected yet in the numbers that we saw in
Speaker 11: this monthly survey based on layoff announcements corporate closures. Where
Speaker 11: do we look in the middle of summer when these
Speaker 11: numbers start to emerge.
Speaker 12: Well, you know, we will come out every month to
Speaker 12: report the data that we have.
Speaker 8: But everything that we.
Speaker 12: Have seen this past month, this past year, as well
Speaker 12: as you know the last year since President Biden came
Speaker 12: to office, is historic job growth, more jobs created during
Speaker 12: the same time period than any president in our history,
Speaker 12: and continued low levels of unemployment again historic lows, and
Speaker 12: more opportunity to come right. The investments in the President's
Speaker 12: Investing in America agenda, many of them are still coming
Speaker 12: out and that's why this summer. I'm going across the
Speaker 12: country talking about good job summer and focusing on the
Speaker 12: importance of what a good.
Speaker 6: Job does for you, Job principles.
Speaker 10: Summer tour.
Speaker 11: You're like Beyonce, You're launching a national tour and it's
Speaker 11: not a mistake. I see some of the states are
Speaker 11: going through, like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Speaker 10: What is your message to voters in those states.
Speaker 12: Well, my message to working people is that we see you,
Speaker 12: We have your back. We know that you have talent
Speaker 12: and desire, and we want to create the kinds of
Speaker 12: opportunities that will allow working people to have a good
Speaker 12: job where they can be paid a living wage and
Speaker 12: live a secure life.
Speaker 8: And our message generally is that when.
Speaker 12: You build a workforce that is ready, that is trained,
Speaker 12: that is skilled, that pulls the full talent of the
Speaker 12: American people, it's good for employers, it's good for economy.
Speaker 12: And we see that time and time again in these
Speaker 12: job numbers.
Speaker 11: Getting back to the household survey, which is important to
Speaker 11: us and our viewers and listeners. The fact that it
Speaker 11: reflects agriculture, the fact that it reflects what's happening in
Speaker 11: people's households.
Speaker 10: Does that not raise.
Speaker 11: The level of importance of the household survey at this point.
Speaker 11: When we look at that against payrolls, they get a
Speaker 11: sense of not even as much where we are now,
Speaker 11: but where we're going.
Speaker 12: I mean, I think the bigger you know, the answer
Speaker 12: is the payroll survey is the survey that tells us
Speaker 12: how many jobs have been created, what industries they'd be
Speaker 12: created in. And again, this the growth we're talking about
Speaker 12: is not just single industry, right, it has been for
Speaker 12: the entire time, but certainly this last month is no different,
Speaker 12: very very broad based. We saw growth in leisure and hospitality,
Speaker 12: we saw it in construction, we saw it in professional services,
Speaker 12: we saw it in healthcare, and so you know, there's
Speaker 12: really the numbers don't lie. It's really you know, broad based, solid,
Speaker 12: continued growth. And I think that coveted soft landing that
Speaker 12: so many people bet.
Speaker 6: Against, well, I haven't even mentioned that yet.
Speaker 11: It's my job to ask you if we're in the
Speaker 11: soft landing. I haven't heard words like goldilocks this morning.
Speaker 11: What's your broader thirty thousand foot view on that. You're
Speaker 11: looking at your slice of the economy, that's the labor
Speaker 11: market is a soft landing intact.
Speaker 8: I think so.
Speaker 12: I mean, again, it's the kind of thing where we're
Speaker 12: always vigilant about where the economy is going, but based
Speaker 12: on where we were.
Speaker 8: Remember in twenty twenty one, right the.
Speaker 12: President came into office, COVID was raging, there was no
Speaker 12: national strategy to address it.
Speaker 8: Unemployment was very, very high.
Speaker 12: People didn't know if they were going to get toilet
Speaker 12: paper if they went to the supermarket. And now we
Speaker 12: have historic job growth, low levels of unemployment. I think
Speaker 12: it is the very definition of a soft landing.
Speaker 10: You mentioned COVID. It's not the first time we've brought.
Speaker 11: This up as a barometer or maybe a baseline for
Speaker 11: where we are now versus where we were before the pandemic.
Speaker 10: It's still impossible to forecast, isn't it.
Speaker 11: You see these payroll numbers blowing off the charts based
Speaker 11: on estimates not just by the government but by Wall
Speaker 11: Street and economists who are a lot smarter than I am.
Speaker 11: When will we be able to get a handle on
Speaker 11: what comes next?
Speaker 12: Well, I mean, I think you know the reality is,
Speaker 12: that's why we don't look.
Speaker 8: At any one month's numbers, as you know, over relying
Speaker 8: on them to tell a story.
Speaker 12: But The story of this economy from January twenty twenty
Speaker 12: one until now is of steady, stable growth, shared prosperity,
Speaker 12: and more investments to come.
Speaker 8: We know that, you know that there's more work to do.
Speaker 12: We're also seeing the lowest levels of like black white
Speaker 12: unemployment in a very long time. So it's equitable growth too,
Speaker 12: and that matters a lot.
Speaker 11: What would a second Biden term mean for the job market.
Speaker 12: I think we continue to deliver, right, We continue to
Speaker 12: build a strong economy. We continue to invest in American
Speaker 12: industry in.
Speaker 8: A way that hasn't been done in decades. So building you.
Speaker 12: Know, restoring roads and bridges, making sure that every family
Speaker 12: who turns on the FOSSi gets clean drinking water, making
Speaker 12: sure that everybody breathes clean air, and has access to
Speaker 12: high speed, reliable internet.
Speaker 8: Those are the kind of infrastructure investments you.
Speaker 12: Know, we're you know, we want to build the things
Speaker 12: that we invented, right, So bringing manufacturing back to the
Speaker 12: United States, I think it means, you know, continued opportunity
Speaker 12: for the American people.
Speaker 11: Will you still be in this building if there's a
Speaker 11: second term.
Speaker 12: Well, you know, I don't want to many predictions about that.
Speaker 12: I do serve as the pleasure of the president, but
Speaker 12: it has been an honor to help to deliver on
Speaker 12: that vision.
Speaker 11: Well, I'm glad you can join us on another job's day,
Speaker 11: and we'd love to meet you back here in a month.
Speaker 6: Thank you, thanks for the time.
Speaker 11: As always, the Acting Secretary of Labor, Julie Sue.
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