1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. 10 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 3: Let's get to the panel. 11 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 2: Joining Usnaws Mohammad al Erin of Queen's College, Cambridge, alongside 12 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 2: Black Rocks Jeff Rosenberg. Gent's great to catch up with 13 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 2: you both, Muhammed. 14 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 3: First to you. 15 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 2: You've had a bit of time to pour over this one. 16 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 2: What's the big one for you? 17 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 4: So I'd like to look at this in four ways. 18 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 5: One the very narrow sense, this is a really strong 19 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 5: report on the demand side, not on the supply side, 20 00:00:57,280 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 5: on the demand side, but strong in terms of the 21 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 5: for h employees, strong in terms of wages paid, et cetera. 22 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,279 Speaker 4: It does close the door on a July weight cut. 23 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 4: I think that is it. 24 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 5: We almost regardless of what the CPI number says next week. 25 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 5: But then step back and ask the question of reconciliation 26 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 5: with other data, and then the story gets a lot 27 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:27,839 Speaker 5: more interesting. We have this situation where the backward looking 28 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 5: data is strong, the forward looking data is weak. So 29 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 5: we've got to sort of reconcile these two things, which 30 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 5: leaves us to the point that Lisa raised, which is 31 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 5: what is your view of the economy, Because if you 32 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 5: don't know have that view, you're going to continue to 33 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:44,040 Speaker 5: get whibsored for quite a few months, and you're going 34 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 5: to miss windows of opportunity that are really important. 35 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, Jeff, this is really difficult. 36 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 2: It's a question we both asked my mckaid, can you 37 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 2: reconcile this data this morning with the data we've had 38 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 2: or week, First of all, your view on this morning's number, 39 00:01:57,640 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 2: And second of all, to Muhammed's point, can you reckon 40 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 2: saw this with what we're looking at elsewhere? 41 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, a couple of things. 42 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 7: I mean, the big market reaction is not only because 43 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 7: this is a strong report on its own, but it 44 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 7: is stronger than what people were expecting going in. And 45 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 7: there were two things that were kind of undermined relative 46 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 7: to those expectations. 47 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 6: Number one, as Mike was. 48 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 7: Talking about the seasonal flows expected to push down, we 49 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 7: overwhelmed those. And then there was a pull forward argument 50 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 7: around warm weather and the construction number that Mike just 51 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 7: mentioned was very strong. So you didn't see either of 52 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 7: those things. 53 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 6: Muhammad mentioned closing. 54 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 7: The door on July, opening the door or reopening the 55 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 7: door a little bit wider on the debate about whether 56 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 7: or not policy is indeed as restrictive as the FED 57 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 7: thinks it is. And this is a little more evidence 58 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 7: to bring that debate back into the fore that you 59 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:55,240 Speaker 7: have the big financial conditions easing that's offsetting the tightening, 60 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 7: and we may not be as tight as we think 61 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 7: we are. 62 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 8: Mohammed, I'd love your thoughts on that. 63 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: At a time where your framework does expect some more 64 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: significant weakening. 65 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 3: Does this data change that to you? 66 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 1: Does slamming the door in a July rate cut seem 67 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 1: reasonable to you? Or are you concerned that this is 68 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: basically the wrong signal at a time where what comes 69 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 1: next looks different than what came before. 70 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 5: Look, it's reasonable for a FED that is over the 71 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 5: data dependent, There's no way that can cut or signal 72 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 5: a cut in July with this data, they would have 73 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 5: to change their reaction function and be public about it. 74 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 5: And I don't see the FED doing this. So that's 75 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 5: why the door is shut. Now should it be shut 76 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 5: is a much more interesting debate. You know, my view, 77 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 5: we are in a weakening economy. There are no spad 78 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 5: tires to speak of anymore. There's no pandemic savings, there's 79 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 5: no fiscal huge new fiscal impulse coming. 80 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 4: There are no spad tires in this economy. 81 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 5: So if you get it wrong and you weaken too quickly, 82 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 5: it's going to be a very difficult mistake to correct. 83 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 5: The problem is which is the other bit of my 84 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 5: view that you know, is we are living in a 85 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 5: secularly inflationary world. Secularly inflation is going to be higher 86 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 5: because of all the transitions going on. Domestically, we no 87 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 5: longer talk about liberalization, deregulation, fiscal prudence, We talk about 88 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 5: trade restriction, we talk about industrial policy, we talk about 89 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 5: fiscally responsibility, and globally we talk about fragmentation. All that 90 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 5: means a more inflationary world, which then raises the question 91 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 5: as to what should be the right inflation target. So 92 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 5: if you put all this together, it does shut the 93 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,719 Speaker 5: door for this FED, but it will not shut the 94 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 5: door on a very active debate that's going on that 95 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:44,239 Speaker 5: tries to look forward not back. 96 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 1: Well, we'll get to Jeff for one second, but Mohammed, 97 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:48,600 Speaker 1: just to follow up on that, are you basically saying 98 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 1: that the chance of a harder landing increases the longer 99 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,039 Speaker 1: the FED does not cut rates even if it appears 100 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 1: strong on the surface. 101 00:04:58,040 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 5: I do because I focus a lot on the forward 102 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:06,239 Speaker 5: looking data and that is weakening significantly. So yes, that's 103 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 5: where I am. But I understand that if you're data dependent, 104 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 5: there's no way you're going to come anywhere near my 105 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 5: view because you would have to completely change your paradigm. 106 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 3: Jeff, would you agree with that? 107 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 7: Well, I think there's a little bit of a segmentation 108 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 7: going on in terms of where is interest rate policy biting, 109 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 7: and it is in the lower end of the consumer side. 110 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 7: The flip side of that is the wealth effect. 111 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 6: Right. 112 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 7: This is a FED that is basically said, if inflation 113 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 7: is stronger, if growth is stronger, we'll just wait. They've 114 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 7: given us a very asymmetric outlook with regards to their 115 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 7: reaction to their data dependence. 116 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 6: What that has done is basically. 117 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 7: Given the green light for financial market conditions to be 118 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 7: very easy, and the transmission of that into the economy 119 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 7: is a very strong wealth effect for the predominant sources 120 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 7: of where most of consumption comes from. So you do 121 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 7: see the weakening that Muhammad's talking about, but the waiting 122 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 7: of that weakening I think is less. And so yes, 123 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,919 Speaker 7: growth is slowing, but it's slowing to a level that 124 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 7: is still well above trend, and so you don't get 125 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 7: as much of the constraint and the push down on inflation. 126 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,279 Speaker 7: The FED is basically saying we're okay with that. And 127 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 7: I think that's why you're pushing back with this data 128 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 7: today on this notion of we're really restrictive. I'm not 129 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 7: sure they're as restrictive as they think they are, and 130 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 7: the policy of asymmetry to data reaction is kind of 131 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 7: pushing against that by pushing up or easing financial condition. 132 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:54,679 Speaker 2: If you want just joining us, welcome to the program. 133 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 2: Fourteen minutes ago, a blowout jumps report a big monster 134 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 2: upside surprise to seventy two is the number one eighty 135 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 2: was the estimate. Two standouts here not just the headline number, 136 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 2: also wage growth coming in hotter than expected at zero 137 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 2: point four percent versus the estimate in our survey of 138 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 2: zero point three percent month over month. Straight away market reaction, 139 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 2: equities gap in lower equity features on the s and 140 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 2: P five hundred, down by zero point five percent, on 141 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 2: the NASTAG down by point five on the Russell down 142 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 2: more than one percent. Turn a page and get to 143 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 2: the bomb market. And here's your why. Bigger pricing at 144 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 2: the front end up by eleven or twelve basis points 145 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 2: on a two year, up eleven on a ten year, 146 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 2: as well to four thirty nine eighty one. You have 147 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 2: to point out, though, Lisa, when you look at these moves, 148 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 2: this is below where we were a week ago, because 149 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 2: we had a string of weaker than expected data going 150 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 2: into this print, and this bond market rallied hard coming 151 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 2: into this morning. 152 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: You know, I think that the conversation that we've been 153 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: having with both Mohammed really the way he's talking about 154 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: the idea that the weaker data really does point to 155 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 1: something that is more sustainable that can't be offset from 156 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: these numbers, and then Jeff saying, well, this reintroduces the 157 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: debate really about are we restrictive? This is the seesaw, 158 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: and frankly, the markets are kind of tipping it in 159 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 1: one way or the other. I mean, that's what we 160 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: heard from Allen Zeenner that basically the more enthusiastic this 161 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 1: market gets, the harder it is to get to the 162 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 1: fed's goal. So it becomes a sort of chicken and 163 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: egg race, you know. And this is what's making it 164 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: really difficult to understand where we're at, because it's like 165 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 1: that scientific experiment that we affect the experiment as we 166 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 1: observe it. 167 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 6: That's where we're are right now. 168 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 2: We shape the events, we anticipate that kind of thing. 169 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 2: Can just imagine Kashgari walking into the two day meeting 170 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 2: next week sort of banging the table, told you so, 171 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 2: how we need to have this conversation right now? 172 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 8: Well, he would be right at that moment. 173 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: And then they're going to be the people who believe 174 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 1: what Muhammad Lariat is saying, which is, if you look 175 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: at the data, there is weakening coming down the pike, 176 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 1: and you can't ignore that. 177 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 6: It is a fraught moment. 178 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 1: I actually think it's going to be a very difficult 179 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: debate next. 180 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 2: Week Mohammed, we know what you think they should do. 181 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 2: Let's talk about what they will do. How is Sham 182 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 2: and Powell going to navigate this news conference given the 183 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 2: information we just received this morning. 184 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 5: I think he's going to maintain maximum optionality, He's going 185 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 5: to retain his data dependency mantra, and he's going to say, 186 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 5: you know, we need more confidence. He's going to use 187 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 5: the word confidence and patients. I suspect, and I said, 188 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 5: you know, John, I find it fascinating. Two things I 189 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 5: find it fascinating. First, I think it's a shame that 190 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 5: we've broken the record of I think twenty eight straight 191 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 5: months of the uninformed rate below four percent. That was 192 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 5: a nice record to have. But what I find really interesting, 193 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,079 Speaker 5: and Lisa referred to it, and you refer to it, 194 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 5: is that the bond market has been much more volatile 195 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 5: on the data than the stock market. 196 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:38,839 Speaker 4: The downce side surprises. 197 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:42,559 Speaker 5: We had moved yields in a massive way, moved moved 198 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 5: the commodity complex in a massive way, had where did 199 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:46,439 Speaker 5: a little. 200 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:48,719 Speaker 4: Impact on equity, and we're seeing the reverse today. And 201 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 4: I find this absolutely fascinating. 202 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 5: And I would be very curious to hear what Jeff 203 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 5: has to say about you know this, this difference in 204 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 5: actual volatility between these two segments. 205 00:09:59,080 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 3: Jeff, what do you make of that? 206 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a great point, and I think it's explained 207 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 7: by this other big topic that in other contexts, it 208 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 7: would be the only thing we're talking about, and that's 209 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 7: the AI boom. And so you look at technology as 210 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 7: a share of the S and P five hundred, it's 211 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 7: forty three percent market cap. 212 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 6: This is a different story. 213 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 7: I think where you want to see or where you 214 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 7: see or where you want to look for to see 215 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 7: the interest rate impact is in small caps, and I 216 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 7: think we'll see that this morning and a much bigger outcome. 217 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 7: And so it's numerator versus denominator. The numerator effect of technology, 218 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 7: these incredible amounts of cap X and cash flows is 219 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 7: just overwhelming the denominator for that index. And you see 220 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,680 Speaker 7: that particularly in growth. You see it in the S 221 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,439 Speaker 7: and P five hundred with a very high weighting. So 222 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 7: I think that's what explains the higher volatility. 223 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:52,680 Speaker 6: You also see it in kind of macro. 224 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:55,439 Speaker 7: Look at the move index, look at interest rate volatility 225 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 7: relative to VIX volatility, and the VIX volatility is compressed 226 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 7: because you have the text store. It's also compressed because 227 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 7: you have a very low degree of cross market correlation 228 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 7: going on in equities right now. 229 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 6: So there are some really important differences. 230 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 7: Going on in the translation of macro data into these indices, 231 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 7: and the micro stories going on in equities are as 232 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:19,360 Speaker 7: powerful or overwhelming the macro story of the variability that 233 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,439 Speaker 7: Lisa just mentioned. You know, are we too hot? 234 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 6: Are we too cold? That you see reflected in the 235 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 6: bond markets. Every data print and. 236 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 1: Certainly the macro environment is whipside, and we have been 237 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 1: talking about the frustration of where to get conviction. Jeff, 238 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 1: you where you really raise this point about this really 239 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: questions how restrictive we actually are from your vantage point. 240 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:41,320 Speaker 1: Does this print of two hundred and seventy two thousand 241 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 1: new jobs being created in the month of may change 242 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: your view about the balance of risks of both the 243 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:47,959 Speaker 1: FED as well. 244 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 7: As for rates, Well, it's not my view that really matters. 245 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 7: I think will the FED change its view and I 246 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 7: really don't think they will. This asymmetric response that if 247 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 7: ination slows, if growth slows, and I think the growth 248 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 7: picture is going to be as important, the FED will 249 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 7: increase its probabilities it will want to cut rates for 250 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 7: the reasons that Mohammad said, They're more worried about. 251 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 6: Now losing the war. 252 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 7: They won the battle on inflation, they don't want to 253 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 7: lose the war on the soft landing. And so because 254 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 7: of the asymmetry, I think that eases some of the 255 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 7: market reaction, the broader market reaction, obviously not from the 256 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 7: day reaction to today. 257 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 6: So I don't think much has changed there. 258 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 7: I think if they were to start talking a little 259 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 7: bit more about the concerns about maybe we're not restrictive, 260 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 7: if you had more growth data, they'll get the question 261 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 7: eventually again, you know what about hiking rates. 262 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 6: He'll dismiss it. 263 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 7: And I think that asymmetry is still with us, and 264 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 7: I think that's supportive to the financial market outlook. 265 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 6: And so I don't think there's a huge change there. 266 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 2: Jeff just at a record We care what you think. 267 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,319 Speaker 2: We care a lot about what you think. I think 268 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 2: this story written yesterday by Rich Miller ally care at Bloomberg. 269 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 2: Got to share this with you because there will be 270 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 2: some of you out there asking do these numbers this 271 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 2: morning overstate the strength of this economy? Are we measuring 272 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 2: things the right way? Is this accurate. Data published Wednesday 273 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,200 Speaker 2: by the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests payrolls might have 274 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 2: grown about sixty thousand less per month on average last 275 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 2: year than the roughly two hundred and fifty thousand run 276 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 2: rate derived from the agency's monthly employment report. Mike McKay, 277 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 2: that question is going to reverberate through the weekend after 278 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 2: that number this morning. 279 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting. 280 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 9: You're going to have a lot of debate over this 281 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 9: because Steve Stanley from Zen Tandeer points out that we 282 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:40,319 Speaker 9: had basically the same situation at this time last year, 283 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 9: and then the QCW numbers, the ones you're referring to, 284 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 9: were revised down and we basically didn't have much of 285 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 9: a significant change in payrolls overall. They don't give us 286 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:54,439 Speaker 9: the number until August, so we'll be waiting for that. 287 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 9: It's just before Jackson all. So it may be that 288 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 9: it's not as bad as these numbers suggests, but if 289 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 9: it is, this doesn't fit with that. 290 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 2: It race is the question, Lisa, we having the right conversation. 291 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 2: Something we have to think about. 292 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:10,560 Speaker 9: Well, here's the thing you got to worry about is 293 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 9: the FED has to deal with. 294 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 6: The numbers that it has, and so if. 295 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 9: These numbers come in much weaker when they're revised later on, 296 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 9: everybody's going to say, well, the FED missed it, but 297 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 9: they don't know. 298 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 1: Well, this is a reason why, and it's actually wonderful 299 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: to have muhammadan this is a reason why. He says, 300 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: this is one of the fatal flaws of data dependency, especially. 301 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 3: When the data is messy. And that is the moment that. 302 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 2: We are clearly in, Mohammad, Let's get to it. Do 303 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 2: you think we are having the right conversation? Obviously, based 304 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 2: on what you've told us over the last few weeks, 305 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 2: you don't think we are. 306 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 5: Now, Look, I think we're having the right conversation on 307 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 5: based on the data we have. It's very difficult to 308 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 5: have a conversation on contrafactual data. But what we are 309 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 5: being reminded over and over again is how difficult this 310 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 5: economy has become to understand, you know, John, go back 311 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 5: to August twenty twenty, twenty twenty two, the famous eight 312 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 5: minute speech with pain. Go back to the Bloomberg headline 313 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 5: of October twenty twenty two, one hundred percent of probability. 314 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 5: The US goes into recession and then look what actually happened. 315 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 4: It just gives you a sense of if. 316 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 5: You become two data dependent and don't take longer term views, 317 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:24,239 Speaker 5: you end up risking real mistakes. 318 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 4: And that's what I'm really worried about. John. 319 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 5: There are some very clear secular trends going on. Jeff 320 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 5: mentioned what's going on in AI. That's one of several 321 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 5: secular trends that are going to be with us for 322 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 5: a while that we've got to incorporate and stop looking 323 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 5: simply at the view mirror. You have to both look 324 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 5: at the wave from mirror and through the windscreen. 325 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 10: Jeff. 326 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 1: Final word, your big takeaway. 327 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 7: Well, it's just clearly a big surprise, down big downside 328 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 7: surprise relative to expectations. July's door is closed, opening the 329 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 7: door on a debate about how restrictive FED policy really is. 330 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 2: Can I just ask you both your best guest for 331 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 2: the doubt plum next week to a one to a 332 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 2: one on that doubt plot. 333 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 3: It cuts this year Hammed first to you one, Jeff. 334 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 2: Just for contrast, I'll go with two, okay, Jeff Rosen 335 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 2: fact black rop, Mohammad Larian Jens appreciate it. I know 336 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 2: you would as you trouble, Muhammad. We know that Jeff 337 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 2: is too appreciate it. 338 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 3: Gents, thank you. 339 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 11: Welcome to our TV and radio audiences worldwide. Welcome to 340 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:39,920 Speaker 11: the Labor Department today. We are here with the acting 341 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 11: Labor Secretary, Julie Sue At Secretary is great to see 342 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 11: you this morning. Thank you for joining us on another 343 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 11: job's day. We've got a bit of a mixed signal 344 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 11: here in this job's report. More payrolls than expected and 345 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 11: a higher unemployment rate than expected, which survey household or 346 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 11: establishment is reflecting reality. 347 00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 8: Well, this is another very strong jobs report. 348 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 12: I'm not going to get tired of coming here and 349 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 12: telling you that we are continuing to experience very strong, 350 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 12: stable and steady growth. So it's two hundred and seventy 351 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 12: two thousand jobs created last month. The unemployment rate has 352 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 12: remained at or below four percent for thirty months straight. 353 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,880 Speaker 12: That's still the longest since the nineteen sixties. And at 354 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,360 Speaker 12: the same time, real wages you know, over the year 355 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 12: are up four point one percent, So. 356 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 8: Workers are doing better in. 357 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 12: An economy in which the President has said, when we 358 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 12: focus on workers and worker well being, we're going. 359 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 8: To do what's right for the economy and for the country. 360 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 11: When you look under the hood, do you find that 361 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 11: four hundred thousand, even more than four hundred. 362 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 10: Thousand people left the labor force in May. 363 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 11: The participation rate is not back where it was before 364 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 11: COVID right now, how do you explain that? 365 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 8: Well, so let's say, you know, the prime. 366 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,919 Speaker 12: Age labor force participation rate remains very, very strong, and 367 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 12: it's worth noting that again women's labor force participation rate hit. 368 00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 8: Another historic high. 369 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,400 Speaker 12: So last month we said it was the highest since 370 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 12: nineteen forty eight when this data was begun to be collected. 371 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 8: It's now a little bit higher than that. 372 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 12: Even so, women continue to power our economic recovery. At 373 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:15,199 Speaker 12: the same time, you know, we are seeing again strong participation. 374 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 12: People are in the job market. People have come off 375 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 12: the sidelines. People are looking for jobs and they're finding them. 376 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 12: Where there has been a little bit of you know, 377 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 12: of a very small uptick in the unemployment rate again 378 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 12: still out or below four percent for the longest stretch 379 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 12: in decades, but has to do with young people ages 380 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 12: twenty to twenty four, who are a bit of transition. Really, 381 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 12: if we think about what may right may as a 382 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:40,400 Speaker 12: period of transition for all. 383 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 8: Of us parents with kids who graduate and maybe. 384 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 12: Move and you are looking for different jobs during that time. 385 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:49,640 Speaker 11: You can tell a great story and put a great 386 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 11: headline number on that unemployment. 387 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:53,440 Speaker 10: Story as you are right now. 388 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,640 Speaker 11: But when you look under the hood, you do see 389 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 11: some elements of weakness compared to the payroll Survey, And 390 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:00,719 Speaker 11: I wonder, while you're happy where it is now, if 391 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:02,480 Speaker 11: you worry about where we're going to be six months 392 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 11: from now, if this is a slowing job market. 393 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 12: Well, the payroll survey really is the gold standard when 394 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,160 Speaker 12: it comes to the unemployment rate, right, this is the 395 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 12: you know, it's the largest by far of any data set, 396 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 12: including the household survey. 397 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,880 Speaker 8: That is used. And so again, I don't think there's. 398 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 12: Any way to paint this as other than continued strong, 399 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 12: stable and steady growth under President Biden's leadership and proof 400 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,959 Speaker 12: of his theory that if we invest in America, we 401 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:32,959 Speaker 12: can create good jobs in communities and crowd in private 402 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 12: investment in order to do that. And you know, as 403 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:37,920 Speaker 12: I travel the country, I'm seeing the benefits of that. 404 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 11: We've talked a lot about the impacts that immigration has 405 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 11: on our job market, can be for better or worse, 406 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 11: depending on the trend that you're looking at. And there's 407 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 11: an analysis from Steve England Standard Chartered Bank that we 408 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 11: looked at this week that estimates about half of the 409 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 11: job growth since October can be attributed to undocumented migrants. 410 00:19:57,400 --> 00:19:59,159 Speaker 11: That it's somewhere in the area of one hundred and 411 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 11: nine thousand a mon. If the President's executive order put 412 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:06,919 Speaker 11: in place just days ago lowers the threshold, lowers the 413 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 11: numbers of undocumented immigrants entering the country, what does that 414 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,359 Speaker 11: mean for the job market. Do you see numbers like 415 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:13,159 Speaker 11: that in your modeling. 416 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 8: I mean, I haven't. 417 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 12: Seen that study. I would actually question those numbers based on. 418 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 8: What we see. 419 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,920 Speaker 12: This is a situation where one we're not talking about 420 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 12: dividing a small pie into smaller pieces. 421 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,120 Speaker 8: We're talking about a much bigger pie overall. 422 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 12: So more jobs, more people in the labor market, more 423 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 12: opportunity for all. Since the President came into office, again, 424 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 12: we've talked about this, you know, fifteen million jobs created. 425 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:42,720 Speaker 12: That is a fifteen million families, fifteen million individuals who 426 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 12: are having the benefits of a good job that might 427 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,760 Speaker 12: not have had that before. I would also say that 428 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 12: it is true that there has been you know, immigration 429 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:53,920 Speaker 12: based growth also, and that has been true with throughout 430 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 12: our nation's history, right that immigrants have helped to do 431 00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 12: jobs and help field the economy. 432 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,400 Speaker 8: But the majority of this job. 433 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,640 Speaker 12: Growth that we're talking about has gone to native born workers. 434 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 11: We'll talk to me about the other side of this story, 435 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 11: and that's immigration reform H one B, H two B. 436 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 11: We spend all day talking about border security in Washington. 437 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 11: What does our job market need in terms of attracting 438 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 11: talent from other countries legally? 439 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 12: I mean, it's such an important question, right, This is 440 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 12: why since day one, President Biden has called for the 441 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 12: kinds of comprehensive immigration reform that would address some of 442 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 12: the challenges that our system has created. 443 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,639 Speaker 8: Job market look like with that help, what what our 444 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:35,399 Speaker 8: job market. 445 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 6: Look like with you got that reform? 446 00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 8: Right? Well, so we do adminster. 447 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,880 Speaker 12: You know, we have in this administration increased the number 448 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 12: of H two B workers that have come in. We 449 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 12: recently did a rule around H two A workers making 450 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 12: sure that when migrant workers come to this country through 451 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 12: legal means, that they're also protected right, that they are 452 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,640 Speaker 12: protected for their own good, but also so that they're 453 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:02,120 Speaker 12: being here doesn't take away from you know, the good 454 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,679 Speaker 12: wages in those industries, so you know, but the bigger 455 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 12: picture is that there does need to be comprehensive reform. 456 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 12: The President has called for that, and frankly, Congress needs. 457 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:12,360 Speaker 8: To do its job. 458 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 11: There's something that I don't want to get too deep 459 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 11: in the weeds called the birth death model that our 460 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 11: analysts set Bloomberg Economics, are looking at that would suggest 461 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 11: some of the companies that we've seen closing might not 462 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 11: be reflected yet in the numbers that we saw in 463 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 11: this monthly survey based on layoff announcements corporate closures. Where 464 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,439 Speaker 11: do we look in the middle of summer when these 465 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 11: numbers start to emerge. 466 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 12: Well, you know, we will come out every month to 467 00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 12: report the data that we have. 468 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:39,200 Speaker 8: But everything that we. 469 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:43,160 Speaker 12: Have seen this past month, this past year, as well 470 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 12: as you know the last year since President Biden came 471 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 12: to office, is historic job growth, more jobs created during 472 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 12: the same time period than any president in our history, 473 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:59,439 Speaker 12: and continued low levels of unemployment again historic lows, and 474 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 12: more opportunity to come right. The investments in the President's 475 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 12: Investing in America agenda, many of them are still coming 476 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,359 Speaker 12: out and that's why this summer. I'm going across the 477 00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,919 Speaker 12: country talking about good job summer and focusing on the 478 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:13,520 Speaker 12: importance of what a good. 479 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,440 Speaker 6: Job does for you, Job principles. 480 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 10: Summer tour. 481 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 11: You're like Beyonce, You're launching a national tour and it's 482 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 11: not a mistake. I see some of the states are 483 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:23,280 Speaker 11: going through, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 484 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 10: What is your message to voters in those states. 485 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 12: Well, my message to working people is that we see you, 486 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 12: We have your back. We know that you have talent 487 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 12: and desire, and we want to create the kinds of 488 00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 12: opportunities that will allow working people to have a good 489 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 12: job where they can be paid a living wage and 490 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 12: live a secure life. 491 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 8: And our message generally is that when. 492 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 12: You build a workforce that is ready, that is trained, 493 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 12: that is skilled, that pulls the full talent of the 494 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,399 Speaker 12: American people, it's good for employers, it's good for economy. 495 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 12: And we see that time and time again in these 496 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 12: job numbers. 497 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,159 Speaker 11: Getting back to the household survey, which is important to 498 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 11: us and our viewers and listeners. The fact that it 499 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 11: reflects agriculture, the fact that it reflects what's happening in 500 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 11: people's households. 501 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 10: Does that not raise. 502 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 11: The level of importance of the household survey at this point. 503 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,159 Speaker 11: When we look at that against payrolls, they get a 504 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,679 Speaker 11: sense of not even as much where we are now, 505 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:16,360 Speaker 11: but where we're going. 506 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,440 Speaker 12: I mean, I think the bigger you know, the answer 507 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 12: is the payroll survey is the survey that tells us 508 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,399 Speaker 12: how many jobs have been created, what industries they'd be 509 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 12: created in. And again, this the growth we're talking about 510 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 12: is not just single industry, right, it has been for 511 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 12: the entire time, but certainly this last month is no different, 512 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 12: very very broad based. We saw growth in leisure and hospitality, 513 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,119 Speaker 12: we saw it in construction, we saw it in professional services, 514 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 12: we saw it in healthcare, and so you know, there's 515 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 12: really the numbers don't lie. It's really you know, broad based, solid, 516 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 12: continued growth. And I think that coveted soft landing that 517 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 12: so many people bet. 518 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,120 Speaker 6: Against, well, I haven't even mentioned that yet. 519 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 11: It's my job to ask you if we're in the 520 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,679 Speaker 11: soft landing. I haven't heard words like goldilocks this morning. 521 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 11: What's your broader thirty thousand foot view on that. You're 522 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 11: looking at your slice of the economy, that's the labor 523 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 11: market is a soft landing intact. 524 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:10,440 Speaker 8: I think so. 525 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 12: I mean, again, it's the kind of thing where we're 526 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:16,479 Speaker 12: always vigilant about where the economy is going, but based 527 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:17,400 Speaker 12: on where we were. 528 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 8: Remember in twenty twenty one, right the. 529 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,959 Speaker 12: President came into office, COVID was raging, there was no 530 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:23,399 Speaker 12: national strategy to address it. 531 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,119 Speaker 8: Unemployment was very, very high. 532 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 12: People didn't know if they were going to get toilet 533 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,280 Speaker 12: paper if they went to the supermarket. And now we 534 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 12: have historic job growth, low levels of unemployment. I think 535 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:34,879 Speaker 12: it is the very definition of a soft landing. 536 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,359 Speaker 10: You mentioned COVID. It's not the first time we've brought. 537 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 11: This up as a barometer or maybe a baseline for 538 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 11: where we are now versus where we were before the pandemic. 539 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 10: It's still impossible to forecast, isn't it. 540 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 11: You see these payroll numbers blowing off the charts based 541 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 11: on estimates not just by the government but by Wall 542 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 11: Street and economists who are a lot smarter than I am. 543 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 11: When will we be able to get a handle on 544 00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 11: what comes next? 545 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 12: Well, I mean, I think you know the reality is, 546 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 12: that's why we don't look. 547 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:06,199 Speaker 8: At any one month's numbers, as you know, over relying 548 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 8: on them to tell a story. 549 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 12: But The story of this economy from January twenty twenty 550 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 12: one until now is of steady, stable growth, shared prosperity, 551 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,120 Speaker 12: and more investments to come. 552 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,159 Speaker 8: We know that, you know that there's more work to do. 553 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,120 Speaker 12: We're also seeing the lowest levels of like black white 554 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,600 Speaker 12: unemployment in a very long time. So it's equitable growth too, 555 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:28,880 Speaker 12: and that matters a lot. 556 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 11: What would a second Biden term mean for the job market. 557 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 12: I think we continue to deliver, right, We continue to 558 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:39,160 Speaker 12: build a strong economy. We continue to invest in American 559 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 12: industry in. 560 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 8: A way that hasn't been done in decades. So building you. 561 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 12: Know, restoring roads and bridges, making sure that every family 562 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,680 Speaker 12: who turns on the FOSSi gets clean drinking water, making 563 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 12: sure that everybody breathes clean air, and has access to 564 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 12: high speed, reliable internet. 565 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:54,360 Speaker 8: Those are the kind of infrastructure investments you. 566 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 12: Know, we're you know, we want to build the things 567 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 12: that we invented, right, So bringing manufacturing back to the 568 00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,760 Speaker 12: United States, I think it means, you know, continued opportunity 569 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 12: for the American people. 570 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:06,919 Speaker 11: Will you still be in this building if there's a 571 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,159 Speaker 11: second term. 572 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 12: Well, you know, I don't want to many predictions about that. 573 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,199 Speaker 12: I do serve as the pleasure of the president, but 574 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,199 Speaker 12: it has been an honor to help to deliver on 575 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:14,720 Speaker 12: that vision. 576 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,000 Speaker 11: Well, I'm glad you can join us on another job's day, 577 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 11: and we'd love to meet you back here in a month. 578 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:20,080 Speaker 6: Thank you, thanks for the time. 579 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,160 Speaker 11: As always, the Acting Secretary of Labor, Julie Sue. 580 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 581 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,679 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, an gio politics. 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