WEBVTT - Graham Allison: War with China? 0:00:05.160 --> 0:00:08.119 We have a big bonus episode today. I'm handing over 0:00:08.160 --> 0:00:11.480 the reins for this one to Mr Brian Goldsmith. It 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:14.239 is all you, baby, So who did you talk to? 0:00:14.480 --> 0:00:17.200 I talked to Graham Allison, who has written the foreign 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:19.560 policy book of the year. It's all about whether the 0:00:19.680 --> 0:00:23.479 US and arising China are headed ultimately for war, which 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:26.960 is a subject that hasn't gotten very much attention. Graham 0:00:27.000 --> 0:00:29.479 has been an advisor to the last seven or eight 0:00:29.520 --> 0:00:34.080 Secretaries of Defense. He knows a lot about nuclear terrorism, 0:00:34.159 --> 0:00:37.720 about the North Korean challenge, about what's happening with the 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:41.200 Trump administration and the Russians. So we covered a wide 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:43.720 range of issues, and I think people who are interested 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:46.080 in foreign policy are going to really like this conversation. 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:48.800 I'm excited to hear it, and I think that it 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:51.120 comes at a very important time. He sounds like a 0:00:51.120 --> 0:00:54.040 real smarty pants by the way, Brian, but I'm really 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:57.280 excited to hear him his take on the President's recent 0:00:57.280 --> 0:01:00.440 trip abroad, on some of the things that Uncle Merkel 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:04.240 has been saying, as you mentioned, what's going on with Russia, 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:08.480 and kind of going deeper into why this should spark 0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:12.640 outrage if in fact the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians, 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:16.240 and of course and a very tense situation in North 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:19.440 Korea with them launching that missile that landed in the 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:22.440 Sea of Japan. I mean, there's so much going on internationally, 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:26.160 and I welcome somebody smart to give me a deeper 0:01:26.240 --> 0:01:29.080 understanding and better perspective of all the things that are 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:31.800 going on. Well, needless to say, I could completely geek 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:33.959 out with Graham Allison about all those topics and a 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:39.280 lot more. So take a listen. Dr Graham Allison, my 0:01:39.400 --> 0:01:43.080 former professor at the Kennedy School. Thank you so much 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:46.000 for doing the show. Thanks for having me. Well. I 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:49.960 read this new book with great interest and fascination because 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:53.000 it really steps back from the day to day and 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:55.840 asked a really big question, which is are the United 0:01:55.880 --> 0:02:00.320 States and China inevitably heading to war? And and what 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:03.520 is what is the answer to that question? Well, that's 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:06.560 I think the sixty four dollars or sixty four trillion 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:11.400 dollars questions, and I think the answer is yes and no. 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:15.840 And in case it seems to profits oial, I think 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:19.640 that's not a very satisfying answer, not very satisfying, but 0:02:19.720 --> 0:02:23.400 it's true. So in this case, I believe business as 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:29.280 usual will likely produce history as usual, and in that case, 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:31.840 that would be a war between China and the US 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:36.480 that would be catastrophic for both. That's the yes and 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:41.640 no is that UH. As the saying goes, only those 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:45.040 who fail to study history are condemned to repeat it. 0:02:45.840 --> 0:02:50.560 And there are enough ingredients in the relationship to UH 0:02:50.600 --> 0:02:55.680 imagine that far sighted states craft, both in Washington and Paging, 0:02:56.240 --> 0:02:59.880 could find a way to live together to mutual benefit. 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:03.640 And speaking of learning from the past, you studied in 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:07.440 this book, UH sixteen occasions in which, over the past 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:13.120 five years, a rising power threatened to displace an existing superpower, 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:15.120 and you found that in twelve of those cases the 0:03:15.160 --> 0:03:19.600 result was war. For those cases the two parties avoided war. 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:24.799 What were the distinctions between them? Well, great question. So 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:30.520 in the twelve cases, UH, normally they succumb to the 0:03:30.600 --> 0:03:36.440 normal pressures and normal misunderstandings and normal mistakes of a 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:40.240 rising power and a ruling power. So a rising power, thanks, 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:44.240 I'm bigger, I'm stronger, my interests deserved more weight than 0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:47.800 they got when I was smaller and weaker. I deserve more, 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:53.000 say more. Sway, So when an upstart threatens to an incumbent, 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:56.360 you get a rising power syndrome and a ruling person. 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:58.720 The ruling power looks and says, wait a minute. The 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:02.200 way things were were great. They were the only circumstances 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:04.200 which you got a chance to grow up. You should 0:04:04.240 --> 0:04:07.000 be grateful, you should even help support them. And your 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:11.000 actions now seemed there were to be threatening. So that 0:04:11.120 --> 0:04:16.880 dynamic is the something you see in the cases of failure. 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:20.400 And I would say the dramatic case of that, and 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:23.960 most relevant for us today, is the circumstances that got 0:04:24.040 --> 0:04:25.920 us to World War One. That's on the one hand. 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:27.560 On the other hand, as you say, what about the 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:31.320 cases in which wear was averted and a very interesting case, 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:36.279 the US rose to rival and then ultimately overtake Britain 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.240 at the beginning of the twentieth century. Britain found a 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:42.920 way to adapt and adjust that was so nuanced and 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:47.560 subtle that they kept what was vital for Britain on 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:50.520 the one hand, but they accommodated the US and other 0:04:50.560 --> 0:04:55.320 areas and so smoothly that Americans came to understand our 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:58.800 interest is largely aligned with Britain. So then when World 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:02.560 War One came, the US was Britain's lifeline both with 0:05:02.640 --> 0:05:05.400 supplies and with money while the war was going on, 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:08.919 until when the US entered World War One, we naturally 0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:12.039 entered is Britain's a lie And then between the wars, 0:05:12.080 --> 0:05:14.880 the U S British relationship thicken, and then when World 0:05:14.920 --> 0:05:18.240 War Two came, the US was again the essential ally 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:22.720 for Britain. So that was a great case of life adaptation. 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:25.839 When you think about the case you just described of 0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:30.159 the US and Britain, Britain was, in a sense managing 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:34.159 its own decline. It was deteriorating as the great empire 0:05:34.200 --> 0:05:36.120 of the world as the US was coming up. And 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:40.360 I'd imagine a lot of Americans would reject that comparison 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:42.640 and would be made very uncomfortable by it. And so 0:05:42.920 --> 0:05:45.679 when you think about those two things, on the one hand, 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:48.719 war with China more likely than not. On the other hand, 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:53.080 a lot of Americans, not feeling comfortable with managing peacefully 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:56.560 are declined visa via the Chinese. Are Are we just 0:05:56.680 --> 0:06:00.839 headed sort of inexorably towards a big conflict? Are well? 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:05.760 I think thucydities would say, there's an unstoppable rising China 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:11.159 on a collision course with an immovable ruling America, that 0:06:11.200 --> 0:06:15.080 would be business as usual and history as usual. But 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:17.600 if we look at the cases of success, I mean 0:06:17.600 --> 0:06:21.520 a more positive example that maybe is more appealing as 0:06:21.520 --> 0:06:24.240 we think about it, and no cases exactly like the other. 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.119 But in the case of the Cold War, the US 0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:31.440 faced a surging Soviet Union. When John Kennedy became President 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:34.560 of the US in nineteen sixty one, he believed, and 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:38.039 conventional wisdom believed the Soviet Union was going to overtake 0:06:38.080 --> 0:06:41.359 the US as the dominant economy by the end of 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:44.679 the seventies. Again, history people can't even believe that today, 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:46.000 but that was the fact. You can go back and 0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:49.800 look at the economics textbook of the time, the Samuelson 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:52.920 Textbook in nineteen sixty four, it says by the end 0:06:52.960 --> 0:06:55.440 of the seventies, Soviet Union will overtake the US, which 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:58.359 is why analysts should never make these predictions. Well, but 0:06:58.560 --> 0:07:01.120 we have to live in a world where uncertain as 0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:04.719 we are, we have to have expectations. So for sure, 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:08.560 the Soviet Union was thought of and appeared to be 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:12.440 a existential threat to the US. Rather than having a 0:07:12.440 --> 0:07:15.400 war with the with the Soviet Union, people invented a 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:19.760 whole new crazy idea. How about Cold War? So in 0:07:19.880 --> 0:07:23.200 my column this figures in the no war because war, 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:27.640 and this is only a metaphor, Cold War was competition 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:31.480 in every dimension by every means except bums and bullets 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:34.120 killing thousands of each other. And we had some proxy wars, 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:38.200 proxy wars, we had the covered killing of people, we 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:42.760 had economic war, we had propaganda war, but we didn't 0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:45.560 have bums and bullets killing each other. And so I'm 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:48.080 about in this book, I mean by war, I mean 0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:51.360 thousands of people killing each other. That's that's what means war. 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:54.800 And in the case of the Cold War, people invented 0:07:54.800 --> 0:07:59.520 a strategy that was highly imaginative, very adoptable, but which 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:02.320 coped with the threat successfully. So I would say, if 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:04.920 we were trying to think about the situation today, we 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:07.760 don't want to manage to guous the client like Britain, 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:10.440 and we don't want a Cold war just like the 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:14.720 Soviet unit. This is a whole new, different situation. But 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:18.720 from each of these cases we can get some clues, uh, 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:21.440 as well as from the mistakes that were made in 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:24.240 the cases that led to war. The new strategy that 0:08:24.280 --> 0:08:28.480 would have to be created will be as strangely different 0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:31.080 if it's going to be successful from all of the 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:35.000 conventional conversation today as the Cold War was from the 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:38.800 conversations previously. And one of the most powerful passages in 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:42.720 this book is when you describe just how big, how 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:46.640 powerful China is becoming. And one of the many reasons 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:48.880 to read this book is just to wrap your mind 0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:53.760 around the scale of blockbuster growth that we're talking about. 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:58.199 I mean, every two years, the increment of Chinese growth 0:08:58.679 --> 0:09:03.040 is greater than Indie as whole economy. China has already 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:07.480 surpassed the US as an economic power, particularly in manufacturing 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:10.440 and consumer goods. It's the largest automaker in the world, 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:13.079 and it is only a matter of time. It's a 0:09:13.200 --> 0:09:20.560 question of when, not if China becomes the dominant world superpower. Well, 0:09:20.679 --> 0:09:24.200 I think that the uh, your point is exactly right. 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:29.640 So uh, unless once been watching China carefully, and maybe 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:32.840 even if you have, it's hard to appreciate what's happened 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:36.400 in a single generation. So in a single generation, a 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:39.520 country that didn't appear in any of the International League 0:09:39.520 --> 0:09:43.760 tables has leaped to the top in every arena. Uh. 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:47.480 We never, never in history has a country risking so far, 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:50.400 so fast, on so many different dimensions. In fact, in 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:53.720 the chapter on the rise of China, I quote backliffe 0:09:53.720 --> 0:09:56.480 Hovels good line in which he says things have happened 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:59.520 so fast we haven't yet had time to be astonished. 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:04.320 So everywhere in every arena, one sees China in our 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:08.520 face and three times the size of if the trend, 0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:11.800 if the trend should continue, Because do the math, there's 0:10:11.800 --> 0:10:15.200 four times as many Chinese as there are Americans. So 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:18.000 if there are only one fourth as productive as Americans, 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:22.640 the two economies are equal, So they're not that. Sometimes 0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:25.800 they're only half as good as we are, half as productive, well, 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:28.840 then there twice as big as we are. And for Americans, 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:33.160 and especially red blooded Americans like me, even red neckt Americans. 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:37.200 I'm from North Carolina, we know USA means number one. 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:40.720 I can take off my shirt here and you'll find 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:44.240 a tattoo you know that says USA means number one. 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:48.920 Note that's a joke. But but but but if you 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:52.000 took but if you took the skin off, you would 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:57.160 you would. Basically, Americans under believe, most Americans, people like me, 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:00.559 believe that we have been number one all our that's 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:02.840 the way the world is supposed to be, somewhere in 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:06.080 the Bible, or in the Constitution or the laws of nature, 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:09.040 it says, Usa. One of the points you make in 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:11.520 the book is that you know, in large part this 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:13.480 is due to the fact that we have the biggest economy, 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:15.960 because then we can fund the biggest military, the biggest 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:21.320 intelligence apparatus, the biggest diplomatic apparatus, the biggest thing. Exactly, 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:24.319 it's not that we're inherently better. And so if another 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:27.120 country is three times the economy and there therefore three 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:30.000 times the resources to do this stuff, are we going 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:32.920 to be number one anymore? Probably not? Probably not. And 0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:35.680 I think in the in the book, I give you 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:37.640 an abbreviated version of the chart I give to my 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:40.960 students and of course at Harvard. So the top of 0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:44.040 the chart says when could China become number one? And 0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:47.600 I give twenty six indicators. So biggest auto manufacturers, you say, 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:51.520 but the biggest cell phone manufacturer, biggest smartphone user, biggest 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:57.960 robot producer, biggest artificial intelligence, biggest economy. And students in 0:11:58.000 --> 0:12:01.200 the Harvard class say, oh, maybe forty for this one. 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:03.400 We make a you know, pick a number for each 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:05.960 one of the twenty six indicators. Then I have chart 0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:09.240 two and chart to the top of which says already, 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:12.559 so every one of these twenty six indicators, China has 0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:16.439 overtaken the US. But there's an asterisk attached to all 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:18.760 of this, all these projections in the future, which is, 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:22.040 if the present trends continue and a lot of people 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:27.160 take a darker, dimmer review of Chinese authoritarianism, of their 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.240 governance model. Condi Rice just came out with a new 0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:33.160 book about democracy in which she notes that there are 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:36.400 a hundred and eighty thousand protests a year in China. 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:40.240 There's still no reliable rule of law. There's mass seizure 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:43.720 of people's assets there they the Chinese government has to 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:46.440 employ over a million people just to censor the internet. 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:50.800 And so is this model of an open economy but 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:54.360 a closed political system actually sustainable or is there going 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:58.160 to be some disruption over time? It's a great, great question, 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:02.079 And I would say of a fundamental question about China 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:06.280 as their government system, I say in the conclusion of 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:09.800 the book, a fundamental question about the US is our 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:16.280 governance system exactly? Things are just working fine. So basically, 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:18.400 if you're trying to think of, you know, what would 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:22.679 be a conceivable accommodation between the two parties for the 0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:26.040 time being. Let's imagine that there were adult supervision for 0:13:26.080 --> 0:13:29.120 a second in international affairs. Of course, they're not. We 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:31.280 we live in a hobsey in the world. There's nobody 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:34.960 who's superior to. She's impaying and Trump. But let's just 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:39.239 imagine hypothetically. I knew this in my class, that their work. Okay, 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:43.560 So here's a Martian strategist who's an adult and she 0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:48.240 parachutes into Mary Lago for the summit between she and Trump, 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:50.280 and she says, guys, I have a couple of things 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:53.439 to point out to you. First, each of you have large, 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:58.240 probably insurmountable problems. At first. Secondly, the most important of 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:01.560 these problems occur in early within your own border, not 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:03.960 the problems you were talking about between the between the 0:14:04.000 --> 0:14:05.959 two a few So I have an idea for you. 0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:11.040 Why don't you take a little breather like Pericles did 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:14.600 with the Sparta in the thirty year piece. The thirty 0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:18.240 year piece basically said, why don't we just each focus 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:20.840 on our own problems for thirty years and then we'll 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.960 get back to trying to kill each other. And so 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:28.000 it's interesting, you know, to think the unthinkable yet again 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.840 before we move on to other topics, what does a 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:35.240 war between the US and China? Look like? Is there 0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:42.040 a war between these two nuclear powers that's anything but unmanageable, catastrophic, 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:46.320 millions and millions of people dying on both sides. Again, 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:51.360 great questions. So anybody who's looked at this carefully in 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:55.760 the Defense department and the Chinese counterpart have done, can 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:58.640 see that a full scale war between the US and 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:03.200 China would be kin austrophic for both and nobody would win. 0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:07.720 Nobody what's war. Everybody understands a war would be catastrophic. 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:10.680 So if that was the case, how could a war happen? Well, 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:13.680 war has happened if we look at the previous cases, 0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:18.760 not because somebody wanted war, but because some third party 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:24.960 action or event becomes a match that makes a fire 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:27.440 at the end of which people are somewhere where they 0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:29.440 don't want to be. So let's take in this case. 0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:33.160 So I'd say the most most likely path today the 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:36.280 war between the US and China, and which large numbers 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:38.840 of Chinese and Americans are killing each other goes just 0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:42.520 like North Korea. So North Korea will in the months 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:47.240 ahead either conduct I CBM tests that will give it 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:50.760 the capability to strike Los Angeles with a nuclear weapon. 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:54.359 That's on the one hand, or it will be interrupted 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:57.000 that's on the other. So I've written about this as 0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:00.040 a Cuban missile crisis in slow motion. So just to 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:04.800 back up, the scenario is North Korea has the capability 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:07.360 or proves that they have the capability to strike Los 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:12.360 Angeles with a nuclear tipped missile. Trump decides to strike 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:17.040 the North Koreans to prevent them reaching that final point. Yes, 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.600 and North Korea responds by killing more than a million 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:24.000 people soul South Korea, which they have the capability of 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:28.440 doing today, And then the US and South Korea declare 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:32.200 war on North Korea, and and where do the dominoes 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:35.080 fall after that? Okay, then it's then the game becomes 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:39.560 thick because if we if if we attack North Korea 0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:42.840 in order to make sure it can't conduct another round 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:47.200 of attack, including nuclear weapons against South Korea or against Japan, 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:51.520 well possibly some of those weapons get fired in the process. 0:16:52.000 --> 0:16:54.600 So now you can even have nuclear weapons exploding in 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:58.760 South Korea or Japan. We're upon As Colin Powell once 0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:02.000 said to the North Korea counterparts, he said, the movement 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:04.919 of nuclear weapon explodes on the soil of any ally 0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:07.600 of the U s, We're gonna turn the whole of 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:13.000 North Korea into a charcoal biscuit. Uh So maybe when 0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:15.760 then we just simply say too much is too much? 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:19.760 Uh toasts the whole place, that we can do that. Okay, 0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:21.920 that would be one possibility, and then we have to 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:24.480 see how does that play with the Chinese. The more 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:27.679 likely possibility, I think is that will end up with 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:31.000 a ground war in South Korea, in which the South 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:35.479 Koreans and the Americans will otherwise capture North Korea and 0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:39.439 unify the country unless China enters the war. But we 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:42.119 should remember what happened in the First Korean War. Again, 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:45.200 Americans don't do much history here, but it's worth to remember. 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:49.760 In nineteen fifty UH North Korea attack South Korea, almost 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:52.680 capture the whole country. US came to the rescue very 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:56.399 last minute, pushed the North Koreans back up the peninsula. 0:17:56.840 --> 0:18:00.760 We're approaching the Chinese border, the border between North Korea 0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:04.359 and UH and China. The Chinese then out of the 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:10.160 Blue to the bedazzlement of MacArthur, attacked and pushed beat 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:12.760 the Americans right back down the peninsula to the thirty 0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:16.520 parallel where the war ended, because China was determined that 0:18:16.720 --> 0:18:20.359 no American military ally was going to be on its border, 0:18:20.960 --> 0:18:24.440 even in nineteen when it was, you know, one the 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:26.840 size of the U S. The US had a monopoly 0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:29.560 of nuclear weapons. US had just finished World War Two 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:33.160 by dropping bombs on a Roshoma and Nagasaki, and that 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:37.879 China attacked the US. So most people believe that China 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:42.000 would not tolerate a unified Korea that was a military 0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:43.960 ally of the U. S. It seems like the rational 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:47.560 way to prevent this and acknowledging we're not in a 0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:50.560 fully rational world here, at least in terms of the 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:54.960 North Korea track, is to get the Chinese to prevent 0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:57.879 the North Koreans from going nuclear. That we would accept 0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:02.840 the status quo if North Korea weren't threatening our country 0:19:02.960 --> 0:19:06.879 or our allies with nuclear weapons. But the question is 0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:10.560 can the Chinese do that and will the Chinese do that? Well, 0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:14.639 you're you're channeling Trump Chagan, and I think in a 0:19:14.680 --> 0:19:18.280 way that most Americans would so when most Americans hear 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:20.439 of this. I mean I've I talked to, you know, 0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:22.760 people in the government as well as students or others. 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:27.000 They say, I don't believe this, Okay, I a little impoverished. 0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:31.560 Pip squeak cannot have nuclear weapons. I mean, nobody would 0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:34.480 allow that. And I say, well they do. The American 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:38.880 intelligence community says they have an arsenal nuclear weapons. Now, 0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:42.199 I mean, it is unbelievable if you were just you know, 0:19:42.520 --> 0:19:45.200 not paying attention. But but it's a fact. But do 0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:50.240 the Chinese have the capacity or the will to influence 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:53.640 the North Korean's not to proceed any further with their 0:19:53.640 --> 0:19:57.440 weapons program? Well, yes and no. So yes, okay, So 0:19:57.480 --> 0:20:01.040 the Chinese control a lifeline for North Korea. If the 0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:05.280 Chinese were prepared to collapse the North Korean regime, they 0:20:05.280 --> 0:20:08.000 could do so because any five percent of the trade 0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:11.960 with North Korea goes to China and nine of the energy, 0:20:12.040 --> 0:20:18.040 so the oil that keeps Panyon's factories, uh, their military 0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:21.560 uh their heat in the winter, all of this comes 0:20:21.560 --> 0:20:24.320 from China. And if they were prepared to squeeze that lifeline, 0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:27.040 they could squeeze them. Now, what would didn't happen and 0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:29.440 this is. I mean, I've sat down with Chinese and 0:20:29.520 --> 0:20:32.560 game this several times and they say, okay, so let's 0:20:32.600 --> 0:20:36.480 imagine the place collapses. Now we have a what chaos? 0:20:36.800 --> 0:20:40.280 A civil war? Are there South Koreans and you're gonna 0:20:40.280 --> 0:20:43.399 get involved in this situation? And I say, well, the 0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:47.440 South Koreans are not gonna let their cousins in North 0:20:47.520 --> 0:20:50.439 Korea start without trying to be helpful to them, and 0:20:50.640 --> 0:20:53.520 they're gonna have an interest in the matter, and so well, 0:20:53.520 --> 0:20:56.440 maybe they'll get engage a little bit. And then well, 0:20:56.480 --> 0:21:00.879 if they do, won't they end up inheriting the of Korea? 0:21:01.080 --> 0:21:03.000 I would say that would be the normal thing. They're 0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:06.680 very successful country and wealthy. These guys are poor and miserable. 0:21:06.960 --> 0:21:08.680 You know, it'll take them a long time, like East 0:21:08.680 --> 0:21:11.520 Germanita get the country back together, but I think that's 0:21:11.520 --> 0:21:14.000 probably how it will come about. Well, then they say, 0:21:14.000 --> 0:21:16.760 so there's gonna be a U. S military, a lie 0:21:17.240 --> 0:21:22.280 on our border, and that's the reason why we went 0:21:22.320 --> 0:21:24.920 to war with you earlier. And the scenario you're describing 0:21:25.000 --> 0:21:28.040 is that basically the North Koreans don't buy the idea 0:21:28.359 --> 0:21:31.640 that the Chinese would really squeeze them because They know 0:21:31.840 --> 0:21:34.280 that the Chinese don't want to have an American ally 0:21:34.320 --> 0:21:39.520 on their board, and therefore their leverage well impressive on paper, 0:21:39.720 --> 0:21:45.720 is maybe, you know, not so much in reality. So 0:21:45.840 --> 0:21:47.760 when we come back with Graham Allison, we're going to 0:21:47.880 --> 0:21:50.199 talk about what if anything, the United States can do 0:21:50.280 --> 0:21:52.199 to prevent a war with China, and we're also going 0:21:52.240 --> 0:21:55.560 to talk about some other foreign policy issues. Uh, stay 0:21:55.600 --> 0:21:58.960 with us. Just a reminder next week, Brian and I 0:21:59.000 --> 0:22:01.760 will be talking with that during comedian Matt Walsh. You 0:22:01.880 --> 0:22:06.600 probably know him as Press Secretary Mike McClintock on HBO's 0:22:06.680 --> 0:22:09.040 V one of my favorite shows. So what questions do 0:22:09.040 --> 0:22:11.639 you have about Matt's life career and how he really 0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:14.679 feels about Julia Louis Dreychus call us and leave a 0:22:14.720 --> 0:22:20.119 message at four four six three seven nine two two 0:22:20.119 --> 0:22:32.840 four four six three seven What can we do right 0:22:32.840 --> 0:22:38.520 now to get us off the path toward inevitable, horrible, 0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:42.080 destructive war with the Chinese. I say, this is not 0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:44.520 a problem to be fixed the way Washington likes to 0:22:44.520 --> 0:22:47.320 fix a problem. The rise of a five thousand euro 0:22:47.400 --> 0:22:51.080 civilization with one point four billion people is not fixable. 0:22:51.359 --> 0:22:55.359 This is a chronic condition to be endured and managed 0:22:55.440 --> 0:22:58.560 for a generation. So that's the point. One point two 0:22:59.000 --> 0:23:04.640 in this case is specially diagnosis must proceed prescription. Just 0:23:04.680 --> 0:23:07.480 like if you went to the emergency room and the 0:23:07.560 --> 0:23:10.560 doctor said get on the guerney, I'm pulling you into 0:23:10.560 --> 0:23:13.760 the operating room and I'm gonna do surgery, you would say, 0:23:13.800 --> 0:23:17.760 wait a minute, how about a diagnosis first? So diagnosis 0:23:17.920 --> 0:23:21.080 should proceed prescription. And this book is mainly about trying 0:23:21.080 --> 0:23:24.920 to help us with the diagnosis. Okay, if we were 0:23:24.960 --> 0:23:28.520 just adults trying to work out some of these problems 0:23:28.640 --> 0:23:31.840 or these workable or is it really this is hopeless? 0:23:32.280 --> 0:23:34.520 So I would say, well, now, wait a minute, what's 0:23:34.520 --> 0:23:37.320 on the asset side and what the liability on the 0:23:37.359 --> 0:23:41.000 asset side. First, we both have nuclear arsenals that produce 0:23:41.320 --> 0:23:44.760 mutual assured destruction, So if you decide to kill me, 0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:49.520 you can, but only by committing suicide. So everybody knows 0:23:49.560 --> 0:23:52.840 that's a lousy idea, and as I say, everybody in 0:23:52.880 --> 0:23:57.159 the national security establishment both places gets that. Secondly, we 0:23:57.200 --> 0:24:01.479 have economic inner relationship here which is so thick that 0:24:01.680 --> 0:24:05.440 the war between the US and China, basically Walmart's would 0:24:05.440 --> 0:24:09.760 be empty, and Chinese factories would be producing goods for nobody, 0:24:09.880 --> 0:24:12.000