1 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:08,119 Speaker 1: We have a big bonus episode today. I'm handing over 2 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: the reins for this one to Mr Brian Goldsmith. It 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:14,239 Speaker 1: is all you, baby, So who did you talk to? 4 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: I talked to Graham Allison, who has written the foreign 5 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: policy book of the year. It's all about whether the 6 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:23,479 Speaker 1: US and arising China are headed ultimately for war, which 7 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: is a subject that hasn't gotten very much attention. Graham 8 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:29,479 Speaker 1: has been an advisor to the last seven or eight 9 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: Secretaries of Defense. He knows a lot about nuclear terrorism, 10 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: about the North Korean challenge, about what's happening with the 11 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:41,200 Speaker 1: Trump administration and the Russians. So we covered a wide 12 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 1: range of issues, and I think people who are interested 13 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 1: in foreign policy are going to really like this conversation. 14 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: I'm excited to hear it, and I think that it 15 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 1: comes at a very important time. He sounds like a 16 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: real smarty pants by the way, Brian, but I'm really 17 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: excited to hear him his take on the President's recent 18 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 1: trip abroad, on some of the things that Uncle Merkel 19 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: has been saying, as you mentioned, what's going on with Russia, 20 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: and kind of going deeper into why this should spark 21 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 1: outrage if in fact the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians, 22 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: and of course and a very tense situation in North 23 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: Korea with them launching that missile that landed in the 24 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 1: Sea of Japan. I mean, there's so much going on internationally, 25 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: and I welcome somebody smart to give me a deeper 26 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: understanding and better perspective of all the things that are 27 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: going on. Well, needless to say, I could completely geek 28 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 1: out with Graham Allison about all those topics and a 29 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: lot more. So take a listen. Dr Graham Allison, my 30 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 1: former professor at the Kennedy School. Thank you so much 31 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: for doing the show. Thanks for having me. Well. I 32 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 1: read this new book with great interest and fascination because 33 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: it really steps back from the day to day and 34 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: asked a really big question, which is are the United 35 00:01:55,880 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: States and China inevitably heading to war? And and what 36 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: is what is the answer to that question? Well, that's 37 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 1: I think the sixty four dollars or sixty four trillion 38 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: dollars questions, and I think the answer is yes and no. 39 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: And in case it seems to profits oial, I think 40 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 1: that's not a very satisfying answer, not very satisfying, but 41 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: it's true. So in this case, I believe business as 42 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 1: usual will likely produce history as usual, and in that case, 43 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: that would be a war between China and the US 44 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: that would be catastrophic for both. That's the yes and 45 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 1: no is that UH. As the saying goes, only those 46 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 1: who fail to study history are condemned to repeat it. 47 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: And there are enough ingredients in the relationship to UH 48 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: imagine that far sighted states craft, both in Washington and Paging, 49 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: could find a way to live together to mutual benefit. 50 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 1: And speaking of learning from the past, you studied in 51 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: this book, UH sixteen occasions in which, over the past 52 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 1: five years, a rising power threatened to displace an existing superpower, 53 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: and you found that in twelve of those cases the 54 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 1: result was war. For those cases the two parties avoided war. 55 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:24,799 Speaker 1: What were the distinctions between them? Well, great question. So 56 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: in the twelve cases, UH, normally they succumb to the 57 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 1: normal pressures and normal misunderstandings and normal mistakes of a 58 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: rising power and a ruling power. So a rising power, thanks, 59 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 1: I'm bigger, I'm stronger, my interests deserved more weight than 60 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: they got when I was smaller and weaker. I deserve more, 61 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: say more. Sway, So when an upstart threatens to an incumbent, 62 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: you get a rising power syndrome and a ruling person. 63 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 1: The ruling power looks and says, wait a minute. The 64 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: way things were were great. They were the only circumstances 65 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: which you got a chance to grow up. You should 66 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: be grateful, you should even help support them. And your 67 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: actions now seemed there were to be threatening. So that 68 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 1: dynamic is the something you see in the cases of failure. 69 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: And I would say the dramatic case of that, and 70 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: most relevant for us today, is the circumstances that got 71 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 1: us to World War One. That's on the one hand. 72 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: On the other hand, as you say, what about the 73 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 1: cases in which wear was averted and a very interesting case, 74 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 1: the US rose to rival and then ultimately overtake Britain 75 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: at the beginning of the twentieth century. Britain found a 76 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 1: way to adapt and adjust that was so nuanced and 77 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: subtle that they kept what was vital for Britain on 78 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: the one hand, but they accommodated the US and other 79 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: areas and so smoothly that Americans came to understand our 80 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: interest is largely aligned with Britain. So then when World 81 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 1: War One came, the US was Britain's lifeline both with 82 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 1: supplies and with money while the war was going on, 83 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:08,919 Speaker 1: until when the US entered World War One, we naturally 84 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:12,039 Speaker 1: entered is Britain's a lie And then between the wars, 85 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: the U S British relationship thicken, and then when World 86 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: War Two came, the US was again the essential ally 87 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:22,720 Speaker 1: for Britain. So that was a great case of life adaptation. 88 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 1: When you think about the case you just described of 89 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 1: the US and Britain, Britain was, in a sense managing 90 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:34,159 Speaker 1: its own decline. It was deteriorating as the great empire 91 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 1: of the world as the US was coming up. And 92 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 1: I'd imagine a lot of Americans would reject that comparison 93 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: and would be made very uncomfortable by it. And so 94 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:45,679 Speaker 1: when you think about those two things, on the one hand, 95 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 1: war with China more likely than not. On the other hand, 96 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 1: a lot of Americans, not feeling comfortable with managing peacefully 97 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: are declined visa via the Chinese. Are Are we just 98 00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 1: headed sort of inexorably towards a big conflict? Are well? 99 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 1: I think thucydities would say, there's an unstoppable rising China 100 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 1: on a collision course with an immovable ruling America, that 101 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: would be business as usual and history as usual. But 102 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 1: if we look at the cases of success, I mean 103 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 1: a more positive example that maybe is more appealing as 104 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: we think about it, and no cases exactly like the other. 105 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:27,119 Speaker 1: But in the case of the Cold War, the US 106 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 1: faced a surging Soviet Union. When John Kennedy became President 107 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: of the US in nineteen sixty one, he believed, and 108 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:38,039 Speaker 1: conventional wisdom believed the Soviet Union was going to overtake 109 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:41,359 Speaker 1: the US as the dominant economy by the end of 110 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,679 Speaker 1: the seventies. Again, history people can't even believe that today, 111 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: but that was the fact. You can go back and 112 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: look at the economics textbook of the time, the Samuelson 113 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 1: Textbook in nineteen sixty four, it says by the end 114 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: of the seventies, Soviet Union will overtake the US, which 115 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,359 Speaker 1: is why analysts should never make these predictions. Well, but 116 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: we have to live in a world where uncertain as 117 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 1: we are, we have to have expectations. So for sure, 118 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union was thought of and appeared to be 119 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: a existential threat to the US. Rather than having a 120 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: war with the with the Soviet Union, people invented a 121 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: whole new crazy idea. How about Cold War? So in 122 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: my column this figures in the no war because war, 123 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 1: and this is only a metaphor, Cold War was competition 124 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 1: in every dimension by every means except bums and bullets 125 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: killing thousands of each other. And we had some proxy wars, 126 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: proxy wars, we had the covered killing of people, we 127 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: had economic war, we had propaganda war, but we didn't 128 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 1: have bums and bullets killing each other. And so I'm 129 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: about in this book, I mean by war, I mean 130 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 1: thousands of people killing each other. That's that's what means war. 131 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: And in the case of the Cold War, people invented 132 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: a strategy that was highly imaginative, very adoptable, but which 133 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 1: coped with the threat successfully. So I would say, if 134 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 1: we were trying to think about the situation today, we 135 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: don't want to manage to guous the client like Britain, 136 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 1: and we don't want a Cold war just like the 137 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: Soviet unit. This is a whole new, different situation. But 138 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 1: from each of these cases we can get some clues, uh, 139 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: as well as from the mistakes that were made in 140 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: the cases that led to war. The new strategy that 141 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: would have to be created will be as strangely different 142 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 1: if it's going to be successful from all of the 143 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: conventional conversation today as the Cold War was from the 144 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: conversations previously. And one of the most powerful passages in 145 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: this book is when you describe just how big, how 146 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: powerful China is becoming. And one of the many reasons 147 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: to read this book is just to wrap your mind 148 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: around the scale of blockbuster growth that we're talking about. 149 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 1: I mean, every two years, the increment of Chinese growth 150 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 1: is greater than Indie as whole economy. China has already 151 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: surpassed the US as an economic power, particularly in manufacturing 152 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,440 Speaker 1: and consumer goods. It's the largest automaker in the world, 153 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 1: and it is only a matter of time. It's a 154 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 1: question of when, not if China becomes the dominant world superpower. Well, 155 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 1: I think that the uh, your point is exactly right. 156 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: So uh, unless once been watching China carefully, and maybe 157 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 1: even if you have, it's hard to appreciate what's happened 158 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: in a single generation. So in a single generation, a 159 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: country that didn't appear in any of the International League 160 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: tables has leaped to the top in every arena. Uh. 161 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: We never, never in history has a country risking so far, 162 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: so fast, on so many different dimensions. In fact, in 163 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: the chapter on the rise of China, I quote backliffe 164 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: Hovels good line in which he says things have happened 165 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 1: so fast we haven't yet had time to be astonished. 166 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: So everywhere in every arena, one sees China in our 167 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: face and three times the size of if the trend, 168 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 1: if the trend should continue, Because do the math, there's 169 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 1: four times as many Chinese as there are Americans. So 170 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: if there are only one fourth as productive as Americans, 171 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 1: the two economies are equal, So they're not that. Sometimes 172 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: they're only half as good as we are, half as productive, well, 173 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 1: then there twice as big as we are. And for Americans, 174 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 1: and especially red blooded Americans like me, even red neckt Americans. 175 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 1: I'm from North Carolina, we know USA means number one. 176 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 1: I can take off my shirt here and you'll find 177 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 1: a tattoo you know that says USA means number one. 178 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: Note that's a joke. But but but but if you 179 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 1: took but if you took the skin off, you would 180 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 1: you would. Basically, Americans under believe, most Americans, people like me, 181 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:00,559 Speaker 1: believe that we have been number one all our that's 182 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 1: the way the world is supposed to be, somewhere in 183 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 1: the Bible, or in the Constitution or the laws of nature, 184 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: it says, Usa. One of the points you make in 185 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: the book is that you know, in large part this 186 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: is due to the fact that we have the biggest economy, 187 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 1: because then we can fund the biggest military, the biggest 188 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 1: intelligence apparatus, the biggest diplomatic apparatus, the biggest thing. Exactly, 189 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:24,319 Speaker 1: it's not that we're inherently better. And so if another 190 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 1: country is three times the economy and there therefore three 191 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 1: times the resources to do this stuff, are we going 192 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 1: to be number one anymore? Probably not? Probably not. And 193 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 1: I think in the in the book, I give you 194 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 1: an abbreviated version of the chart I give to my 195 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 1: students and of course at Harvard. So the top of 196 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 1: the chart says when could China become number one? And 197 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 1: I give twenty six indicators. So biggest auto manufacturers, you say, 198 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: but the biggest cell phone manufacturer, biggest smartphone user, biggest 199 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 1: robot producer, biggest artificial intelligence, biggest economy. And students in 200 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 1: the Harvard class say, oh, maybe forty for this one. 201 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 1: We make a you know, pick a number for each 202 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 1: one of the twenty six indicators. Then I have chart 203 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 1: two and chart to the top of which says already, 204 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,559 Speaker 1: so every one of these twenty six indicators, China has 205 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:16,439 Speaker 1: overtaken the US. But there's an asterisk attached to all 206 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 1: of this, all these projections in the future, which is, 207 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 1: if the present trends continue and a lot of people 208 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: take a darker, dimmer review of Chinese authoritarianism, of their 209 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: governance model. Condi Rice just came out with a new 210 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 1: book about democracy in which she notes that there are 211 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: a hundred and eighty thousand protests a year in China. 212 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 1: There's still no reliable rule of law. There's mass seizure 213 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: of people's assets there they the Chinese government has to 214 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 1: employ over a million people just to censor the internet. 215 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: And so is this model of an open economy but 216 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 1: a closed political system actually sustainable or is there going 217 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 1: to be some disruption over time? It's a great, great question, 218 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:02,079 Speaker 1: And I would say of a fundamental question about China 219 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 1: as their government system, I say in the conclusion of 220 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 1: the book, a fundamental question about the US is our 221 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 1: governance system exactly? Things are just working fine. So basically, 222 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: if you're trying to think of, you know, what would 223 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 1: be a conceivable accommodation between the two parties for the 224 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: time being. Let's imagine that there were adult supervision for 225 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 1: a second in international affairs. Of course, they're not. We 226 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 1: we live in a hobsey in the world. There's nobody 227 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:34,960 Speaker 1: who's superior to. She's impaying and Trump. But let's just 228 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:39,239 Speaker 1: imagine hypothetically. I knew this in my class, that their work. Okay, 229 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 1: So here's a Martian strategist who's an adult and she 230 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 1: parachutes into Mary Lago for the summit between she and Trump, 231 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 1: and she says, guys, I have a couple of things 232 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 1: to point out to you. First, each of you have large, 233 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: probably insurmountable problems. At first. Secondly, the most important of 234 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 1: these problems occur in early within your own border, not 235 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 1: the problems you were talking about between the between the 236 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:05,959 Speaker 1: two a few So I have an idea for you. 237 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 1: Why don't you take a little breather like Pericles did 238 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: with the Sparta in the thirty year piece. The thirty 239 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 1: year piece basically said, why don't we just each focus 240 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: on our own problems for thirty years and then we'll 241 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 1: get back to trying to kill each other. And so 242 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: it's interesting, you know, to think the unthinkable yet again 243 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 1: before we move on to other topics, what does a 244 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 1: war between the US and China? Look like? Is there 245 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 1: a war between these two nuclear powers that's anything but unmanageable, catastrophic, 246 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: millions and millions of people dying on both sides. Again, 247 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 1: great questions. So anybody who's looked at this carefully in 248 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 1: the Defense department and the Chinese counterpart have done, can 249 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 1: see that a full scale war between the US and 250 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 1: China would be kin austrophic for both and nobody would win. 251 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 1: Nobody what's war. Everybody understands a war would be catastrophic. 252 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 1: So if that was the case, how could a war happen? Well, 253 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 1: war has happened if we look at the previous cases, 254 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 1: not because somebody wanted war, but because some third party 255 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 1: action or event becomes a match that makes a fire 256 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: at the end of which people are somewhere where they 257 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 1: don't want to be. So let's take in this case. 258 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: So I'd say the most most likely path today the 259 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: war between the US and China, and which large numbers 260 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: of Chinese and Americans are killing each other goes just 261 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: like North Korea. So North Korea will in the months 262 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: ahead either conduct I CBM tests that will give it 263 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: the capability to strike Los Angeles with a nuclear weapon. 264 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:54,359 Speaker 1: That's on the one hand, or it will be interrupted 265 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 1: that's on the other. So I've written about this as 266 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:00,040 Speaker 1: a Cuban missile crisis in slow motion. So just to 267 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 1: back up, the scenario is North Korea has the capability 268 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 1: or proves that they have the capability to strike Los 269 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: Angeles with a nuclear tipped missile. Trump decides to strike 270 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 1: the North Koreans to prevent them reaching that final point. Yes, 271 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: and North Korea responds by killing more than a million 272 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 1: people soul South Korea, which they have the capability of 273 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 1: doing today, And then the US and South Korea declare 274 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 1: war on North Korea, and and where do the dominoes 275 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: fall after that? Okay, then it's then the game becomes 276 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 1: thick because if we if if we attack North Korea 277 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 1: in order to make sure it can't conduct another round 278 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 1: of attack, including nuclear weapons against South Korea or against Japan, 279 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 1: well possibly some of those weapons get fired in the process. 280 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: So now you can even have nuclear weapons exploding in 281 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: South Korea or Japan. We're upon As Colin Powell once 282 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: said to the North Korea counterparts, he said, the movement 283 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:04,919 Speaker 1: of nuclear weapon explodes on the soil of any ally 284 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 1: of the U s, We're gonna turn the whole of 285 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 1: North Korea into a charcoal biscuit. Uh So maybe when 286 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: then we just simply say too much is too much? 287 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: Uh toasts the whole place, that we can do that. Okay, 288 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 1: that would be one possibility, and then we have to 289 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 1: see how does that play with the Chinese. The more 290 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,679 Speaker 1: likely possibility, I think is that will end up with 291 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: a ground war in South Korea, in which the South 292 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:35,479 Speaker 1: Koreans and the Americans will otherwise capture North Korea and 293 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:39,439 Speaker 1: unify the country unless China enters the war. But we 294 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:42,119 Speaker 1: should remember what happened in the First Korean War. Again, 295 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 1: Americans don't do much history here, but it's worth to remember. 296 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: In nineteen fifty UH North Korea attack South Korea, almost 297 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,680 Speaker 1: capture the whole country. US came to the rescue very 298 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:56,399 Speaker 1: last minute, pushed the North Koreans back up the peninsula. 299 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: We're approaching the Chinese border, the border between North Korea 300 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 1: and UH and China. The Chinese then out of the 301 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:10,160 Speaker 1: Blue to the bedazzlement of MacArthur, attacked and pushed beat 302 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: the Americans right back down the peninsula to the thirty 303 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 1: parallel where the war ended, because China was determined that 304 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 1: no American military ally was going to be on its border, 305 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:24,440 Speaker 1: even in nineteen when it was, you know, one the 306 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 1: size of the U S. The US had a monopoly 307 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 1: of nuclear weapons. US had just finished World War Two 308 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:33,160 Speaker 1: by dropping bombs on a Roshoma and Nagasaki, and that 309 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 1: China attacked the US. So most people believe that China 310 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 1: would not tolerate a unified Korea that was a military 311 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 1: ally of the U. S. It seems like the rational 312 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: way to prevent this and acknowledging we're not in a 313 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 1: fully rational world here, at least in terms of the 314 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: North Korea track, is to get the Chinese to prevent 315 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 1: the North Koreans from going nuclear. That we would accept 316 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: the status quo if North Korea weren't threatening our country 317 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:06,879 Speaker 1: or our allies with nuclear weapons. But the question is 318 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 1: can the Chinese do that and will the Chinese do that? Well, 319 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 1: you're you're channeling Trump Chagan, and I think in a 320 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 1: way that most Americans would so when most Americans hear 321 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,439 Speaker 1: of this. I mean I've I talked to, you know, 322 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: people in the government as well as students or others. 323 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: They say, I don't believe this, Okay, I a little impoverished. 324 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: Pip squeak cannot have nuclear weapons. I mean, nobody would 325 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 1: allow that. And I say, well they do. The American 326 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:38,880 Speaker 1: intelligence community says they have an arsenal nuclear weapons. Now, 327 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:42,199 Speaker 1: I mean, it is unbelievable if you were just you know, 328 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,200 Speaker 1: not paying attention. But but it's a fact. But do 329 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 1: the Chinese have the capacity or the will to influence 330 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 1: the North Korean's not to proceed any further with their 331 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 1: weapons program? Well, yes and no. So yes, okay, So 332 00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: the Chinese control a lifeline for North Korea. If the 333 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: Chinese were prepared to collapse the North Korean regime, they 334 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: could do so because any five percent of the trade 335 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 1: with North Korea goes to China and nine of the energy, 336 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 1: so the oil that keeps Panyon's factories, uh, their military 337 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: uh their heat in the winter, all of this comes 338 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: from China. And if they were prepared to squeeze that lifeline, 339 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: they could squeeze them. Now, what would didn't happen and 340 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,440 Speaker 1: this is. I mean, I've sat down with Chinese and 341 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: game this several times and they say, okay, so let's 342 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: imagine the place collapses. Now we have a what chaos? 343 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 1: A civil war? Are there South Koreans and you're gonna 344 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: get involved in this situation? And I say, well, the 345 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:47,440 Speaker 1: South Koreans are not gonna let their cousins in North 346 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,439 Speaker 1: Korea start without trying to be helpful to them, and 347 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 1: they're gonna have an interest in the matter, and so well, 348 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,440 Speaker 1: maybe they'll get engage a little bit. And then well, 349 00:20:56,480 --> 00:21:00,879 Speaker 1: if they do, won't they end up inheriting the of Korea? 350 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: I would say that would be the normal thing. They're 351 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,680 Speaker 1: very successful country and wealthy. These guys are poor and miserable. 352 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 1: You know, it'll take them a long time, like East 353 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: Germanita get the country back together, but I think that's 354 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: probably how it will come about. Well, then they say, 355 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 1: so there's gonna be a U. S military, a lie 356 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:22,280 Speaker 1: on our border, and that's the reason why we went 357 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,920 Speaker 1: to war with you earlier. And the scenario you're describing 358 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: is that basically the North Koreans don't buy the idea 359 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,640 Speaker 1: that the Chinese would really squeeze them because They know 360 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 1: that the Chinese don't want to have an American ally 361 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: on their board, and therefore their leverage well impressive on paper, 362 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 1: is maybe, you know, not so much in reality. So 363 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: when we come back with Graham Allison, we're going to 364 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,199 Speaker 1: talk about what if anything, the United States can do 365 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,199 Speaker 1: to prevent a war with China, and we're also going 366 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 1: to talk about some other foreign policy issues. Uh, stay 367 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 1: with us. Just a reminder next week, Brian and I 368 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 1: will be talking with that during comedian Matt Walsh. You 369 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 1: probably know him as Press Secretary Mike McClintock on HBO's 370 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 1: V one of my favorite shows. So what questions do 371 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,639 Speaker 1: you have about Matt's life career and how he really 372 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,679 Speaker 1: feels about Julia Louis Dreychus call us and leave a 373 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:20,119 Speaker 1: message at four four six three seven nine two two 374 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 1: four four six three seven What can we do right 375 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 1: now to get us off the path toward inevitable, horrible, 376 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 1: destructive war with the Chinese. I say, this is not 377 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 1: a problem to be fixed the way Washington likes to 378 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 1: fix a problem. The rise of a five thousand euro 379 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: civilization with one point four billion people is not fixable. 380 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:55,359 Speaker 1: This is a chronic condition to be endured and managed 381 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: for a generation. So that's the point. One point two 382 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:04,640 Speaker 1: in this case is specially diagnosis must proceed prescription. Just 383 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 1: like if you went to the emergency room and the 384 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 1: doctor said get on the guerney, I'm pulling you into 385 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 1: the operating room and I'm gonna do surgery, you would say, 386 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 1: wait a minute, how about a diagnosis first? So diagnosis 387 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 1: should proceed prescription. And this book is mainly about trying 388 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:24,920 Speaker 1: to help us with the diagnosis. Okay, if we were 389 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 1: just adults trying to work out some of these problems 390 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 1: or these workable or is it really this is hopeless? 391 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 1: So I would say, well, now, wait a minute, what's 392 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 1: on the asset side and what the liability on the 393 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 1: asset side. First, we both have nuclear arsenals that produce 394 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 1: mutual assured destruction, So if you decide to kill me, 395 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: you can, but only by committing suicide. So everybody knows 396 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 1: that's a lousy idea, and as I say, everybody in 397 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:57,159 Speaker 1: the national security establishment both places gets that. Secondly, we 398 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:01,479 Speaker 1: have economic inner relationship here which is so thick that 399 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,440 Speaker 1: the war between the US and China, basically Walmart's would 400 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 1: be empty, and Chinese factories would be producing goods for nobody, 401 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 1: and the U S couldn't get loans to pay for 402 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 1: our deficit. So basically these are thickly interdependent. Now that 403 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,720 Speaker 1: economic interaction has allowed both of us to be wealthier 404 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,639 Speaker 1: than we would be otherwise, there's kind of economic mutual 405 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:28,360 Speaker 1: assured destruction as well as military. But yeah, absolutely. Then thirdly, 406 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:32,239 Speaker 1: there's climate. Now that's not agreed to by everybody in 407 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:38,280 Speaker 1: the U. S. But but every every person UH with 408 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:42,040 Speaker 1: any scientific competence who's looked at this agrees that on 409 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 1: the current trajectory, we may make an uninhabitable climate for 410 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 1: our great great great grandchild or hundred years from now. 411 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:54,479 Speaker 1: So if if we succeeded in doing that, that's clearly 412 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 1: contrary to the violent interests of the US. So is 413 00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 1: there any way the U S could solve this problem 414 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 1: without China? No, we're the two biggest greenhouse gusto manors. Together. 415 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:06,720 Speaker 1: We may not be able to solve it. We may not, 416 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 1: but for sure, independently we can only fail. I wonder 417 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 1: if we're going to look back from a strategic perspective 418 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 1: as as the year that we the United States seated 419 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,919 Speaker 1: global leadership. If you look at our withdrawal from the 420 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:27,359 Speaker 1: Trans Pacific Partnership, which basically delegated the rules of the 421 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: road in Asia to the Chinese. If you look at 422 00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 1: our withdrawal from climate leadership as we pulled out of 423 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 1: the Paris Deal, you look at the the anger and 424 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,960 Speaker 1: the resentment that we're triggering with the travel ban and 425 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:46,000 Speaker 1: sort of increasing isolationism, picking an alliance with Russian effect 426 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:49,160 Speaker 1: over an alliance with NATO by not reaffirming our commitment 427 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 1: to all for one and one for all, and and 428 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:56,640 Speaker 1: being consumed by political infighting here at home. Is this 429 00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,480 Speaker 1: kind of a pivot point that you know, we need 430 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:05,159 Speaker 1: to focus on and and reverse or America is going 431 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,440 Speaker 1: to go off in a very bad direction. I don't 432 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 1: I don't like the implication of the question, but I 433 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 1: can't resistant. I mean, I think that's the logic of 434 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,199 Speaker 1: the situation. And I've been trying to look at the 435 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:22,879 Speaker 1: cases that I've seen previously, but with a rising and 436 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 1: ruling power, and which basically the ruling power we tweeted 437 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 1: from the field of leadership in areas of its strength, 438 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 1: and I haven't been able to find one. But I'm 439 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,679 Speaker 1: hoping maybe you know, breaking new ground here. We may 440 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,199 Speaker 1: be breaking new ground, but I'm hoping maybe that somebody 441 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,840 Speaker 1: else will, you know, we'll find some analog because generally 442 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 1: what happens the ruling power tries to strengthen its relationships 443 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:52,959 Speaker 1: with other powerful entities that allow it to help shape 444 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:56,160 Speaker 1: the environment for the rising power, so that it has 445 00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:00,040 Speaker 1: to adapt, as opposed to allowing it to lead in 446 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,239 Speaker 1: in writing new rules which clearly will be disadvantageous for us. 447 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,159 Speaker 1: And in in fact, you can argue that that's what 448 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 1: the Obama administration was trying to do with both the 449 00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,720 Speaker 1: Paris Deal on climate change, with the Trans Pacific Partnership 450 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,520 Speaker 1: on trade to some extent, with the Iran Deal on 451 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. Absolutely at all in all three cases, and 452 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: I think in all three cases recognizing that our power 453 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:31,399 Speaker 1: is not unlimited, uh, that we have to find compromises, 454 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,199 Speaker 1: but that we would do the best we can. So 455 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: the Iran deal is not what you would want, but 456 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,600 Speaker 1: is an amazing deal in terms of what would be 457 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 1: feasible because for a decade, here's rand uh, you know, 458 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 1: postponing any nuclear advance. That's pretty fantastic compared to the alternative, 459 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,320 Speaker 1: which would have been basically either Iran would be a 460 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,679 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons state or we would be at war with Iran. 461 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 1: So in the climate arena, while I was not a 462 00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:02,639 Speaker 1: huge fan of Pair US in terms of its accomplishments 463 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:08,920 Speaker 1: in actually resolving the climate challenge, which is way, way, 464 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 1: way more severe. You know, with the Nicaraguans, you you 465 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,399 Speaker 1: weren't signed on to Paris because you didn't think it 466 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 1: went far enough. No I I I signed on, but 467 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 1: with with the notion that we shouldn't delude ourselves. This 468 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 1: is what this did is say we all recognize the problem, 469 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,679 Speaker 1: We recognize the magnitude of the problem, We recognize that 470 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,879 Speaker 1: we have to cope with this together. We recognize that 471 00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:37,040 Speaker 1: the big greenhouse cimeters have to carry most of the burden. 472 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,960 Speaker 1: And we're making a big step. I mean not a 473 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:42,920 Speaker 1: big step, a small step, but a real step in 474 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 1: the right direction. And I thought the most interesting part 475 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 1: for me in the Paris record was the agreement both 476 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 1: by private venture capitalists like Bill Gates and the governments 477 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:58,520 Speaker 1: to invest heavily in new technologies that may transform the problem. 478 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 1: Because I don't think we're gonna stop the problem with 479 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,280 Speaker 1: the current parameters that we have technically. I think unless 480 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,120 Speaker 1: there's a technological breakthrough that makes it possible for people 481 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:12,600 Speaker 1: to have electricity and light bulbs and air conditioning. Uh, 482 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 1: and not ruined the climate. We will get screwed, so 483 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,600 Speaker 1: I and I said, I'm an optimist. I think I 484 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 1: think we will get there, but I think we part 485 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 1: of the way we get there is as Paris did, 486 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 1: to say, okay, here we have some bench marks that 487 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 1: we're reaching towards. Plus then lots of people in lots 488 00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 1: of different countries. So this wasn't just the U. S 489 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 1: and China. This was the Europeans, very importantly the Europeans 490 00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 1: and if you're but but also the big little guys 491 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 1: coming along for whatever reason, big guys. Germany was playing 492 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 1: absolutely equescial role in this. And as Mrs Merkel said, 493 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 1: I mean for her the climate thing, she feels it 494 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 1: as existential a threat is she fails the threat of 495 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 1: what we would call terrorism or what you know, Russia 496 00:29:56,480 --> 00:30:00,120 Speaker 1: or others. So she thinks, well, wait a minute, and 497 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,560 Speaker 1: if for a hundred years I've left an environment that 498 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,959 Speaker 1: Germans can't live in, I can't give an account of 499 00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 1: my chancellorship. No, that's just makes sense. And yet in 500 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 1: an act of intentional or unintentional misunderstanding. The Trump administration 501 00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 1: is saying, oh, well, the Paris Accord imposes all these 502 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,400 Speaker 1: regulations on the United States that will kill our economy, 503 00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 1: when the fact is the standards in the deal are voluntary. 504 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 1: Each country sets its own plan and its own carbon 505 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 1: limitations itself. If Trump really felt like what Obama agreed 506 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:38,840 Speaker 1: to in terms of carbon reduction was too tough, he 507 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 1: could have weakened those standards without leaving the agreement. So 508 00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,640 Speaker 1: this was really a political statement more than a substantive one. 509 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,720 Speaker 1: If I were gonna write it up in on this 510 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 1: I'm not because I'm focused on the Ginus stubs you 511 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 1: right now, but I would call it the Napoleon's Great line, 512 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:59,520 Speaker 1: because this is worse than a crime, This is a blunder. Yeah. 513 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 1: So you're a very famous defense strategist, and it really 514 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 1: struck me when uh General McMaster and Gary Cohne, the 515 00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 1: president's top economic and national security advisors, wrote a peace 516 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 1: in the Wall Street Journal in which they basically said, um, 517 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 1: the world is not a global community but an arena 518 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 1: where nations, NGOs, and businesses engage and compete for advantage. 519 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:28,960 Speaker 1: We bring to this forum unmatched military, political, economic, cultural, 520 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,560 Speaker 1: and moral strength. Rather than deny this elemental nature of 521 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 1: international affairs, we embrace it. And so, what do you 522 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 1: think are the consequences of this sort of hobbsy in 523 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 1: way of looking at the world. Well, Uh, I'm a 524 00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:49,200 Speaker 1: big fan of hr McMaster. I know him for a 525 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:52,600 Speaker 1: long long time, and I'm grateful that he's serving in 526 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,600 Speaker 1: this job. I know Gary Cohen a little bit, not 527 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 1: not much. Do you think General McMaster really believes what 528 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,200 Speaker 1: he wrote? I do? I do? I do? I think 529 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 1: that he believes what he thinks. And so there's a 530 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:09,040 Speaker 1: there's a schizophrenia in this a little bit. So on 531 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 1: the one hand, UH, we talk about a global community 532 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 1: and the international rule based order and uh uh the 533 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 1: subordination of sovereignty UH and globalization UH, and there's a 534 00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:28,360 Speaker 1: lot of rhetoric around that. On the other hand, uh, 535 00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 1: does the US ever asked permission when we want to 536 00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:37,120 Speaker 1: go uh couple Saddam Hussein or Kaddafi or conduct their 537 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 1: strikes on UH terrorists in some other country or drop 538 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 1: into Pakistan and kill Osama bin lad Well. And we 539 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,320 Speaker 1: rely on our friends and allies, not just because often 540 00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 1: what we're doing is in their interests, but because there 541 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,480 Speaker 1: are friends and allies and we've helped them over the years, 542 00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:57,960 Speaker 1: and they've helped us, and it's a it's a mutually 543 00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 1: beneficial relationship and not necessar serially a purely transactional one. 544 00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,520 Speaker 1: Well that's a different point. But yes, i've been I 545 00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:07,480 Speaker 1: agree with that, and I know we have to go 546 00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 1: in a few minutes, but I would be remiss if 547 00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:12,160 Speaker 1: I didn't ask you a couple of questions that Katie 548 00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,640 Speaker 1: wanted me to bring to your attention. The first is, 549 00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 1: there's been a lot of talk about President Trump rolling 550 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:22,400 Speaker 1: back the rap pro Schman or normalization of relations with 551 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 1: Cuba that President Obama really started. You're obviously one of, 552 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 1: if not the greatest expert on the Cuban missile crisis. 553 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 1: What do you think would happen if we were to 554 00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:39,040 Speaker 1: go back to status quo anti You know what the 555 00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:43,720 Speaker 1: world looked like before President Obama started um changing our 556 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:47,960 Speaker 1: relationship with Cuba like and I think this reflects some 557 00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: political impulses rather than strategic compulses, and I think it 558 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:54,760 Speaker 1: would be a mistake. I think that if you look 559 00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:59,600 Speaker 1: at it, uh, the only communists and communists like countries 560 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,400 Speaker 1: that have survived, have the ones that have been able 561 00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 1: to isolate themselves from the world. So North Korea is 562 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,200 Speaker 1: kind of the poster child. Cuba has been as well 563 00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,399 Speaker 1: every other country that became engaged in the world where 564 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:14,840 Speaker 1: information comes into them and trade comes to them, and 565 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:19,280 Speaker 1: otherwise what happens cockamami systems get overthrown by their own regimes. 566 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,680 Speaker 1: Look and see what happens. So rarely in policy world 567 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,640 Speaker 1: do you get a kind of almost scientific experiment or 568 00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 1: what You've got a lot of countries, either you isolate 569 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,120 Speaker 1: them or you engage them. In the in case of 570 00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:36,960 Speaker 1: the engagement. Basically, freedom and market economies overwhelmed the regimes 571 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,000 Speaker 1: that they have In a few cases, they isolate themselves 572 00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,759 Speaker 1: and they sustained it. So I would say we've been 573 00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,600 Speaker 1: way better off undermining Cuba by the policies that are 574 00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:51,120 Speaker 1: going forward. And I whether at this stage if Trump 575 00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:54,880 Speaker 1: would roll it back. I haven't looked at the details 576 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:59,760 Speaker 1: enough to judge. And lastly, the hope of the foreign 577 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:04,560 Speaker 1: policey establishment in many ways has been the presence of 578 00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:08,200 Speaker 1: all these generals in the Trump administration, Maddis and McMaster 579 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:13,000 Speaker 1: and Kelly. But the other side of that is as 580 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,480 Speaker 1: people say, if you're a hammer, every problem looks like 581 00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,719 Speaker 1: a nail. Do you worry about too much of a 582 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 1: sort of militarization of American foreign policy in this administration? 583 00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,359 Speaker 1: So in a word, yes, So I would say, on 584 00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 1: the one hand and the other. On the one hand, 585 00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:33,560 Speaker 1: there's no question whatever than an hr McMaster and Maddis 586 00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:38,840 Speaker 1: and Kelly, we have outstanding Americans and great and wise 587 00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:44,160 Speaker 1: military leaders. I be happy to give my wallet to 588 00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:46,359 Speaker 1: any one of them and trust them that they would 589 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:50,040 Speaker 1: do well and wisely. On the other hand, it's not 590 00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,800 Speaker 1: for nothing that the Constitution and the tradition from George 591 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:58,880 Speaker 1: Washington on has been civilian leadership of the military. Because 592 00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,719 Speaker 1: if you're a military man and your whole career is 593 00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:06,920 Speaker 1: about operating instruments of violence to achieve national objectives, and 594 00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:10,920 Speaker 1: especially if you're part of the greatest military machine the 595 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,400 Speaker 1: world has ever seen, with a set of hammers that 596 00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:18,160 Speaker 1: can nail anything that looks like a nail, you're inclined 597 00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,759 Speaker 1: to look for a hammer and for an ail. And 598 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,760 Speaker 1: I think if I watch what's happening both in Afghanistan 599 00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:29,520 Speaker 1: and in Iwaq, and also to some extent in Syria 600 00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:33,160 Speaker 1: and a little bit in Yemen. You see now a 601 00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 1: first order push for military instruments over other instruments, and 602 00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:45,040 Speaker 1: in particular sense, President Trump basically uh in this budget 603 00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:52,080 Speaker 1: reflects I respect for more hammers in a slicing back 604 00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:56,799 Speaker 1: of the other instruments. Now, to his credit, Maddess has said, 605 00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:01,120 Speaker 1: you know, if you don't have a very active state department, 606 00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:05,920 Speaker 1: including reducing its capabilities by reducing its budget, then you're 607 00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:08,000 Speaker 1: gonna need to buy for me more bumps than bullets, 608 00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,960 Speaker 1: because I can't go bomb anybody you want me to bomb, 609 00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,120 Speaker 1: and I can go shoot anybody you want me to shoot, 610 00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,320 Speaker 1: but that's not going to be the end of the story, 611 00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:18,320 Speaker 1: and that's not the better way to deal with the bobom. 612 00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:19,799 Speaker 1: Do you think we're going to be in a Rock 613 00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:24,560 Speaker 1: and Afghanistan for the foreseeable future. I'm afraid yes, and 614 00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:28,160 Speaker 1: I think neither of them will turn out well. Well 615 00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:32,279 Speaker 1: on that happy note, Professor Graham Allison, thanks so much 616 00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:34,799 Speaker 1: for talking with us today. Thank you for having me 617 00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:41,000 Speaker 1: joined the conversation special thanks this week to Ryan Connor 618 00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:44,520 Speaker 1: for recording this conversation off site in l A. Thanks also, 619 00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,480 Speaker 1: as always to our producer Gianna Palmer, and to our 620 00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:52,200 Speaker 1: sound engineer Jared O'Connell. 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