WEBVTT - Jay Varma on Covid Outbreak (Radio)

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<v Speaker 1>Let's take a closer look at what's happening with the virus,

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<v Speaker 1>not just in the States, but globally as well. We

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<v Speaker 1>just heard from Ed there about the situation in Los

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<v Speaker 1>Angeles County with a COVID alert level. Now a surge

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<v Speaker 1>in the subvariants of B A four and B A five.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to take a closer look with Jay Varma.

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<v Speaker 1>He is Kroll's chief medical advisor and also a Croll

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<v Speaker 1>Institute fellow. Jay, thanks for being with us. I guess

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<v Speaker 1>the greatest concern here is B A four B A

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<v Speaker 1>five the subvariants. Talk to me a little bit about

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<v Speaker 1>what we know in terms of transmissibility. Are there details

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<v Speaker 1>on how quickly these variants are capable of spreading. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>What we've been learning about these viruses that every time

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<v Speaker 1>we think we're in the clear, the virus comes up

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<v Speaker 1>with a new way to attack us. Um. These new

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<v Speaker 1>variants are all they're all what we call subvariants of

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<v Speaker 1>omicron and they all have just additional mutations compared to

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the B A two mutation that we would

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<v Speaker 1>be A two subvariant that we were worried about before.

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<v Speaker 1>And what they do is they essentially find ways to

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<v Speaker 1>evade the immunity that we have in our head and

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<v Speaker 1>neck area. UM. So they spread very quickly, UM, and

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<v Speaker 1>they evade that immunity, so that people who have been vaccinated,

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<v Speaker 1>people have had prior infections, UH, they're still at pretty

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<v Speaker 1>high risk of getting infected again. So tell me, hey, Jay,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, okay, this is mutating this virus, But say,

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<v Speaker 1>does the flu virus? So is it very is it

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<v Speaker 1>similar to that in the sense that you know, we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna have to have a covid jab every year, as

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we do a flu jab as well, and

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<v Speaker 1>of course that's gonna you gotta keep up to date

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<v Speaker 1>on your vaccines. And how does this compare with the

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<v Speaker 1>flu going around the last season for instance. Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>an excellent question. So what's really been both surprising and

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<v Speaker 1>obviously disastrous for the whole world is the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>the covid virus has found a way to develop new

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<v Speaker 1>mutations um that are dangerous to us every three or

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<v Speaker 1>four months. In contrast, the flu virus, it takes maybe

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<v Speaker 1>three or four years for it to develop a new

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<v Speaker 1>mutation uh that we consider more dangerous than the last one.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's why we appear to be in this sort

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<v Speaker 1>of unending, you know, cycle of every three or four

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<v Speaker 1>months going through another surge UM. And really the challenge

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<v Speaker 1>has been that even though the development of these vaccines

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<v Speaker 1>was you know, revolutionary in reducing hospitalizations and depths, we're

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<v Speaker 1>now learning that there we need another generation of them.

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<v Speaker 1>We need a vaccine that can cover future variants and

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<v Speaker 1>it can last longer UM. And so the flu virus,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, gives us that ability to do it every year.

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<v Speaker 1>Right now with with COVID, you're you're looking at, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>getting a vaccine at least every year, if not more

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<v Speaker 1>often until we get another generation of vaccines is better.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think what you're describing here as the m

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<v Speaker 1>r n A technology not only was it very quick

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<v Speaker 1>in coming to market, but it was able to target

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<v Speaker 1>those spike proteins in a way that are I think

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<v Speaker 1>created greater efficacy, at least in the initial stage. But

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<v Speaker 1>that's basically a US story as opposed to what we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing play out in China. Give me a sense of

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<v Speaker 1>what China is struggling with right now, as far as

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<v Speaker 1>you know, yeah, China is in a it's incredibly challenging

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<v Speaker 1>position where it has chosen as a national policy what

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<v Speaker 1>it calls dynamic zero, which is effectively trying to keep

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<v Speaker 1>the virus out, you know, as much as possible UM,

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<v Speaker 1>and to do very restrictive measures like locking down you know,

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<v Speaker 1>mega cities UM in an attempt to control this. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>the of course, the reason that they're doing this, the

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<v Speaker 1>stated public health reason is the fact that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they can't afford that the risk of of the virus

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<v Speaker 1>spreading more rapidly to the population, particularly given the very

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<v Speaker 1>large elderly population UM and limited hot hospital capacity. So

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<v Speaker 1>what they've done is, you know, continuously try to fight this.

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<v Speaker 1>But what as it described before, this virus is so

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<v Speaker 1>widely that I'm very pessimistic that they're going to be

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<v Speaker 1>able to do this successfully without continuous lockdowns. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>I think really the concern right now. And on Way

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<v Speaker 1>Province UM, you know, several UH areas are locked down,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's a real fear that that this will return

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<v Speaker 1>back to Shanghai UM and we know the disastrous consequences

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<v Speaker 1>of that a few months ago. The virus is just

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<v Speaker 1>too infectious these days, So so this is a very

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<v Speaker 1>blunt instrument to control a threat UM that really needs

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<v Speaker 1>to be controlled with vaccines and masking and ventilation, but

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese Jerman has chosen a different approach. Jay didn't

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<v Speaker 1>answer this latter part of my question earlier, which Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>sure this they get more and more infectious, but are

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<v Speaker 1>they more dangerous because the flu virus seems to vary.

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<v Speaker 1>It can be very dangerous when you're not so dangerous

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<v Speaker 1>the next But it does seem as the as the

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<v Speaker 1>omicronal COVID nineteen virus mutates, it may become more infectious,

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<v Speaker 1>but perhaps doesn't hurt you as badly. Yes, So there's

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<v Speaker 1>there's two things going on at the same time. So

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<v Speaker 1>one is, you know, what is the virus doing? Is

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<v Speaker 1>it getting more dangerous? And the second is what are

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<v Speaker 1>our bodies doing? Our our bodies better equipped to fight

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<v Speaker 1>this infection. And there was a lot of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>hope early on that omicron because it causes a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of kind of upper respiratory like nose and throat symptoms

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<v Speaker 1>that maybe it wasn't more dangerous. But what we've learned

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the data across many different countries, it is

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<v Speaker 1>almost certainly equally as dangerous. Hong Kong is a perfect

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<v Speaker 1>case study in that now the difference is and the

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<v Speaker 1>reason we're seeing far fewer deaths um in Europe, in

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<v Speaker 1>the US, and in many other places is because people

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<v Speaker 1>have built up a level of immunity that protects them

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<v Speaker 1>against death. Doesn't necessarily prevent them against long COVID or

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<v Speaker 1>even hospitalization, but immunity from the virus infections and immunity

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<v Speaker 1>from vaccines is helping to protect her. So that's why

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<v Speaker 1>it gives the illusion that it's less dangerous. A pleasure

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<v Speaker 1>to have the chance to benefit from your insight. Thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for the conversation. Jay Varma is Kroll's Chief Medical Advisor

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<v Speaker 1>and also a Kroll Institute Fellow. Joining us here on

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<v Speaker 1>Daybreak Asia for the latest on what's happening with the

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<v Speaker 1>coronavirus globally