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Speaker 1: Let's take a closer look at what's happening with the virus,

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Speaker 1: not just in the States, but globally as well. We

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Speaker 1: just heard from Ed there about the situation in Los

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Speaker 1: Angeles County with a COVID alert level. Now a surge

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Speaker 1: in the subvariants of B A four and B A five.

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Speaker 1: We're going to take a closer look with Jay Varma.

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Speaker 1: He is Kroll's chief medical advisor and also a Croll

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Speaker 1: Institute fellow. Jay, thanks for being with us. I guess

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Speaker 1: the greatest concern here is B A four B A

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Speaker 1: five the subvariants. Talk to me a little bit about

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Speaker 1: what we know in terms of transmissibility. Are there details

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Speaker 1: on how quickly these variants are capable of spreading. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: What we've been learning about these viruses that every time

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Speaker 1: we think we're in the clear, the virus comes up

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Speaker 1: with a new way to attack us. Um. These new

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Speaker 1: variants are all they're all what we call subvariants of

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Speaker 1: omicron and they all have just additional mutations compared to

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Speaker 1: you know, the B A two mutation that we would

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Speaker 1: be A two subvariant that we were worried about before.

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Speaker 1: And what they do is they essentially find ways to

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Speaker 1: evade the immunity that we have in our head and

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Speaker 1: neck area. UM. So they spread very quickly, UM, and

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Speaker 1: they evade that immunity, so that people who have been vaccinated,

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Speaker 1: people have had prior infections, UH, they're still at pretty

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Speaker 1: high risk of getting infected again. So tell me, hey, Jay,

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Speaker 1: I mean, okay, this is mutating this virus, But say,

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Speaker 1: does the flu virus? So is it very is it

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Speaker 1: similar to that in the sense that you know, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna have to have a covid jab every year, as

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Speaker 1: you know, we do a flu jab as well, and

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Speaker 1: of course that's gonna you gotta keep up to date

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Speaker 1: on your vaccines. And how does this compare with the

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Speaker 1: flu going around the last season for instance. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: an excellent question. So what's really been both surprising and

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Speaker 1: obviously disastrous for the whole world is the fact that

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Speaker 1: the covid virus has found a way to develop new

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Speaker 1: mutations um that are dangerous to us every three or

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Speaker 1: four months. In contrast, the flu virus, it takes maybe

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Speaker 1: three or four years for it to develop a new

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Speaker 1: mutation uh that we consider more dangerous than the last one.

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Speaker 1: So that's why we appear to be in this sort

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Speaker 1: of unending, you know, cycle of every three or four

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Speaker 1: months going through another surge UM. And really the challenge

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Speaker 1: has been that even though the development of these vaccines

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Speaker 1: was you know, revolutionary in reducing hospitalizations and depths, we're

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Speaker 1: now learning that there we need another generation of them.

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Speaker 1: We need a vaccine that can cover future variants and

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Speaker 1: it can last longer UM. And so the flu virus,

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Speaker 1: you know, gives us that ability to do it every year.

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Speaker 1: Right now with with COVID, you're you're looking at, you know,

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Speaker 1: getting a vaccine at least every year, if not more

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Speaker 1: often until we get another generation of vaccines is better.

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Speaker 1: And I think what you're describing here as the m

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Speaker 1: r n A technology not only was it very quick

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Speaker 1: in coming to market, but it was able to target

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Speaker 1: those spike proteins in a way that are I think

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Speaker 1: created greater efficacy, at least in the initial stage. But

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Speaker 1: that's basically a US story as opposed to what we're

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Speaker 1: seeing play out in China. Give me a sense of

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Speaker 1: what China is struggling with right now, as far as

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Speaker 1: you know, yeah, China is in a it's incredibly challenging

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Speaker 1: position where it has chosen as a national policy what

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Speaker 1: it calls dynamic zero, which is effectively trying to keep

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Speaker 1: the virus out, you know, as much as possible UM,

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Speaker 1: and to do very restrictive measures like locking down you know,

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Speaker 1: mega cities UM in an attempt to control this. Now,

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Speaker 1: the of course, the reason that they're doing this, the

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Speaker 1: stated public health reason is the fact that you know,

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Speaker 1: they can't afford that the risk of of the virus

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Speaker 1: spreading more rapidly to the population, particularly given the very

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Speaker 1: large elderly population UM and limited hot hospital capacity. So

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Speaker 1: what they've done is, you know, continuously try to fight this.

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Speaker 1: But what as it described before, this virus is so

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Speaker 1: widely that I'm very pessimistic that they're going to be

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Speaker 1: able to do this successfully without continuous lockdowns. And that's

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Speaker 1: I think really the concern right now. And on Way

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Speaker 1: Province UM, you know, several UH areas are locked down,

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Speaker 1: and there's a real fear that that this will return

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Speaker 1: back to Shanghai UM and we know the disastrous consequences

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Speaker 1: of that a few months ago. The virus is just

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Speaker 1: too infectious these days, So so this is a very

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Speaker 1: blunt instrument to control a threat UM that really needs

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Speaker 1: to be controlled with vaccines and masking and ventilation, but

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Speaker 1: the Chinese Jerman has chosen a different approach. Jay didn't

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Speaker 1: answer this latter part of my question earlier, which Okay,

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Speaker 1: sure this they get more and more infectious, but are

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Speaker 1: they more dangerous because the flu virus seems to vary.

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Speaker 1: It can be very dangerous when you're not so dangerous

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Speaker 1: the next But it does seem as the as the

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Speaker 1: omicronal COVID nineteen virus mutates, it may become more infectious,

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Speaker 1: but perhaps doesn't hurt you as badly. Yes, So there's

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Speaker 1: there's two things going on at the same time. So

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Speaker 1: one is, you know, what is the virus doing? Is

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Speaker 1: it getting more dangerous? And the second is what are

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Speaker 1: our bodies doing? Our our bodies better equipped to fight

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Speaker 1: this infection. And there was a lot of you know,

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Speaker 1: hope early on that omicron because it causes a lot

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Speaker 1: of kind of upper respiratory like nose and throat symptoms

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Speaker 1: that maybe it wasn't more dangerous. But what we've learned

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Speaker 1: looking at the data across many different countries, it is

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Speaker 1: almost certainly equally as dangerous. Hong Kong is a perfect

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Speaker 1: case study in that now the difference is and the

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Speaker 1: reason we're seeing far fewer deaths um in Europe, in

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Speaker 1: the US, and in many other places is because people

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Speaker 1: have built up a level of immunity that protects them

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Speaker 1: against death. Doesn't necessarily prevent them against long COVID or

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Speaker 1: even hospitalization, but immunity from the virus infections and immunity

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Speaker 1: from vaccines is helping to protect her. So that's why

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Speaker 1: it gives the illusion that it's less dangerous. A pleasure

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Speaker 1: to have the chance to benefit from your insight. Thanks

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Speaker 1: for the conversation. Jay Varma is Kroll's Chief Medical Advisor

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Speaker 1: and also a Kroll Institute Fellow. Joining us here on

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Speaker 1: Daybreak Asia for the latest on what's happening with the

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Speaker 1: coronavirus globally