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Speaker 1: This is twenty four, a weekly highlight reel from the

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Speaker 1: Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show featuring all things election coverage.

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Speaker 2: Let's get started. Here are Clay and Bucks.

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Speaker 3: It was an incredible performance from jd Vance last night

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Speaker 3: that I think is going to have significant momentum for

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Speaker 3: the Trump Vance ticket as we roll into October. One

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Speaker 3: of the things that I think many people have wanted

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Speaker 3: for some time is for there to be an articulate

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Speaker 3: version of the Trump argument and Trump gets to in

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Speaker 3: my opinion, I think Bucks two the right place on many,

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Speaker 3: if not most, issues facing the country today. But he

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Speaker 3: is a bull in a china shop getting there, breaking

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Speaker 3: all sorts of things in the process. And if you

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Speaker 3: go back and look at much of the media attack

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Speaker 3: on Trump, it's actually for the process, not the end result.

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Speaker 3: And what stood out to me last night, and we're

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Speaker 3: going to play a lot of cuts for you, and

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Speaker 3: I'm curious to hear all of bucks take on this

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Speaker 3: as well, but what stood out to me last night

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Speaker 3: was JD Vance was incredibly articulate at making arguments both

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Speaker 3: for himself and for Trump when they tried to attack

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Speaker 3: him based on what Trump had said. And Tim Walls.

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Speaker 3: I just I'm sorry, he's not up for this job.

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Speaker 3: And I thought as the debate went on, it probably

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Speaker 3: was becoming clearer and clearer to so many people out

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Speaker 3: there that had been sold a false bill of goods

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Speaker 3: about what jd.

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Speaker 2: Vance was.

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Speaker 3: They tried to attack him as weird, and I can

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Speaker 3: only imagine the cognitive dissonance associated with that as you

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Speaker 3: watched this forty year old father of three, what completely

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Speaker 3: calm nor most steadfast talented as he dissected arguments and buck.

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Speaker 3: To me, the ultimate big takeaway from the VP debate

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Speaker 3: at its most foundational level is it's the most important

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Speaker 3: choice that you make as president once you're the nominee,

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Speaker 3: and it tells us a lot about you.

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Speaker 2: The fact that Trump picked JD.

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Speaker 3: Vance, who is a brilliant, stellar communicator and advocate, and

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris picked Tim Walls, who was a doddering, buffoonish

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Speaker 3: liar who actually only got picked I think because Josh

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Speaker 3: Shapiro happens to be Jewish, and I think we're going

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Speaker 3: to get into that, and I think it's going to

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Speaker 3: become a larger criticism on the left of KHLA. But

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Speaker 3: Kamala picked a Boone. Trump picked a stud and last

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Speaker 3: night that ultimately reflected well on Trump, and I thought

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Speaker 3: poorly on Kamala. What was your kind of big picture

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Speaker 3: takeaway from last night?

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Speaker 4: I can't think of a better debate performance on the

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Speaker 4: Merits on a presidential or vice presidential stage in my

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Speaker 4: memory than what I saw from JD Vance last night. Now,

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Speaker 4: Trump has had some incredibly effective debate performances. Obviously, Joe

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Speaker 4: Biden's campaign ended after one. Trump beating all of the

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Speaker 4: Republicans in the twenty sixteen primary was a sight to see.

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Speaker 4: But I think we all should be honest. Trump's version

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Speaker 4: of winning the debate is a little different from what

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Speaker 4: you would think of if you had been on like

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Speaker 4: Lincoln Douglas or policy debate team in high school. Right

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Speaker 4: Trumps with the one liners and the jokes and the performance,

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Speaker 4: and it's not the same kind of thing that you

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Speaker 4: saw on display last night. Look, I thought it was

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Speaker 4: a really respectful and substantive debate. I thought that there

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Speaker 4: was a nice level of decorum and decency showed by

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Speaker 4: both candidates. I think JD put on a clinic on

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Speaker 4: the Merits for how to disassemble your opponent's arguments, stay

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Speaker 4: on message, speak with clarity and eloquence, so he gets

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Speaker 4: an A plus walls from me. Was better than I

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Speaker 4: thought he would be. Oh he was Okay, he was

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Speaker 4: a little better than I thought he would be. Now

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Speaker 4: that's this is always about what are your expectations, Right?

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Speaker 4: I thought that he would go in there where there's oh,

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Speaker 4: you know, a fancy J. D. Waltz with his Yale degree.

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Speaker 2: He didn't do that.

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Speaker 4: He didn't do the mud slinging kind of idiot talking

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Speaker 4: points that I had expected. Look, he got he got

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Speaker 4: nailed on the China visit issue, which was just bizarre

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Speaker 4: the way that he handled that. But I guess he

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Speaker 4: doesn't want to say, look, I just lied, and you

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Speaker 4: guys called me to lie.

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Speaker 2: There.

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Speaker 4: There are a range of areas where I think he

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Speaker 4: did really poorly. The only place where I think he

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Speaker 4: managed to sound like somebody who knows anything about anything

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Speaker 4: was on healthcare. To be fair, I thought that he

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Speaker 4: handled Look, he's lucky he's in the state of Minnesota.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 4: It's like, if you ask the governor of North Dakota

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Speaker 4: about oil, they're gonna know oil. Minnesota is a big

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Speaker 4: healthcare state, so it was a little bit of a

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Speaker 4: sweet spot for him. The thing that I thought was

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Speaker 4: most impressive for jd Vance. You know, there's this thing

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Speaker 4: that people say after debates, and people said it after

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Speaker 4: the ABC News debate, Clay, if you're complaining about the refs,

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Speaker 4: you're losing. Actually not always true, Yeah, because the refs

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Speaker 4: were terrible, as in the moderators were absolute partisan garbage,

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Speaker 4: and JD Vance still handily won the debate. It was

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Speaker 4: three on one and he smoked all three. I mean,

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Speaker 4: some of the all the framing of the questions meant

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Speaker 4: to help, meant to help Walls. The way they fact

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Speaker 4: checked or you know, they kind of corrected or whatever

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Speaker 4: they want to call it, jd and not Walls couldn't

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Speaker 4: have been more obvious. Whenever it was time to ask

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Speaker 4: a follow up of Walls, it was what do you

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Speaker 4: want to add to that?

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Speaker 2: There?

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Speaker 4: Big tim you know, I mean, they might as well

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Speaker 4: have been giving him a shoulder rub on the screen.

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Speaker 4: But I just want to go because I think this

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Speaker 4: is so important, Clay. After the ABC News to be

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Speaker 4: people were, oh, you're complaining about muirds because you lost.

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Speaker 4: Trump didn't look at the numbers, didn't lose that debate

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Speaker 4: by public opinion, and beyond that, the moderator was garbage.

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Speaker 4: The moderators in this were garbage Brennan and whatever the

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Speaker 4: other lady's name, o'donal, O'Donnell. They were clearly partisan hacks,

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Speaker 4: and JD. Vance smoked them. So just remember that the

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Speaker 4: next time someone's like, if you're complaining about the refs, no,

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Speaker 4: it is possible to have terrible refs and win the game.

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Speaker 3: And JD did, And what he did was what I

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Speaker 3: wish Trump had done, because let's play that clip.

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Speaker 2: I think it's so important.

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Speaker 3: Trump never directly confronted David Muirror and whatever the Lindsey

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Speaker 3: Nelson or Davis or whatever the heck her name was

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Speaker 3: at Abe, even though they were constantly trying to fact

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Speaker 3: check him when they tried, and I only remember buck

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Speaker 3: one time where they tried, and it was so devastating JD.

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Speaker 3: Vance's response to them, which illuminated that he understood the

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Speaker 3: issue so much better than they did, and also demonstrated

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Speaker 3: just how much a partisan hacks they were that they

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Speaker 3: had to turn off his microphone. I thought that was

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Speaker 3: the moment where he took complete control of the debate.

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Speaker 3: Let's play that for people out there. It's the one

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Speaker 3: thing I wish Trump had been willing to do during

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Speaker 3: his debate against Kamala Harris, because I think it would

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Speaker 3: have brought into the open for more people just how

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Speaker 3: rigged and biased it was. But listen to that from

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Speaker 3: last night.

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Speaker 6: Just to clarify for our viewers, Springfield, Ohio does have

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Speaker 6: a large number of Haitian migrants who have legal status

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Speaker 6: temporary protective Sea.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, senator.

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Speaker 6: We have so much to get to, Margot, important to

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Speaker 6: turn out of the economy.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Margaret. The rules were that.

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Speaker 5: You got in a fact check, and since you're fact

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Speaker 5: checking me, I think it's important to say what's actually

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Speaker 5: going on.

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Speaker 2: So there's an application called.

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Speaker 5: The CBP one app where you can go on as

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Speaker 5: an illegal migrant, apply for asylum or apply for parole

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Speaker 5: and be granted legal status at the wave of a

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Speaker 5: Kamala Harris open border Wand that is not a person

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Speaker 5: coming in applying for a green card and waiting for

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Speaker 5: ten years. Thank you, Senator of a legal immigration Margaret Bye.

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Speaker 6: Thank you senator for describing the legal product.

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Speaker 4: You have so much to get.

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Speaker 7: To, the Senator, so much the book since nineteen ninety,

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Speaker 7: Thank you.

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Speaker 2: Gentlemen want to have app has not been on the books.

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Speaker 6: Gentlemen, the audience can't hear you because your mics are cut.

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Speaker 4: There was no reasons. Yes, I agree, you know, no reason.

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Speaker 4: Immute is Mike there? And that was just sort of

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Speaker 4: spiteful garbage from these moderators. First of all, listen to

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Speaker 4: the the by the facts and by the reality. It

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Speaker 4: sounds like he listens to the Clay and Buck show

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Speaker 4: and immigration. I'll be honest with you talking about the

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Speaker 4: CBP one app talking about and this is what I

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Speaker 4: try to say to people, and I get frustrated. We

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Speaker 4: discussed this here a lot on the show. Whatever you

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Speaker 4: think the problem of a legal immigration is, it's actually

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Speaker 4: worse because Biden Harris have abused laws to bring in

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Speaker 4: even more people through what is essentially an emergency immigration

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Speaker 4: process of if you don't take me, I'm gonna die.

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Speaker 4: If you don't take me, I'm going to be tortured. Well,

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Speaker 4: that's supposed to be like for an actual emergency, not

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Speaker 4: ten million or five million or however many millions of

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Speaker 4: people have come into the country. That's what they've allowed

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Speaker 4: to happen. It's critical. So I thought Clay that exchange

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Speaker 4: was important on the merits right, on the actual substance

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Speaker 4: of the policy, but also to not let them get

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Speaker 4: away with that. I mean, to do this little you know,

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Speaker 4: look to.

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Speaker 2: Turn their off.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I was sitting watching this with I did

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Speaker 3: a bit with Tommy Lay and Pete hag Seth. We

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Speaker 3: were all watching it together, and Pete's wife said, oh, man,

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Speaker 3: that's like a mom treats the kids, where you just like.

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Speaker 4: Pete's kind of an allusion.

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Speaker 3: Clay Well, his wife was there, Who's fantastic, And she

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Speaker 3: was saying, and she used to be a producer at

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Speaker 3: Fox News, but she was saying. Her immediate reaction was

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Speaker 3: and I get it. It does remind me of what

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Speaker 3: a parent does to a toddler that is misbehaving, just

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Speaker 3: turning off the mics. But I thought it was impossible

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Speaker 3: to ignore from that point forward once he directly confronted them,

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Speaker 3: first of all, how much smarter he is than they are.

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Speaker 3: Let's be clear, you can rip jd Vance for opinions

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Speaker 3: you disagree with him on. But the reason I thought

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Speaker 3: that he would win is I think there was a

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Speaker 3: massive IQ differential between jd Vance and Tim Walls. I

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Speaker 3: think Tim Walls is not a very smart man. I

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Speaker 3: think jd Vance really smart.

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Speaker 4: He'd come across as as likable though to you, would

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Speaker 4: you say, or more likeable than you anticipated Walls. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: that was where I compare him to Kamala That's what

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Speaker 4: I was. I mean, if you look at those two,

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Speaker 4: Tim Wallas is far more affable than Kamala Harris in

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Speaker 4: terms of one.

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Speaker 3: Thing I was thinking buck was if we hadn't gotten

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Speaker 3: Biden dropping out, can you imagine what jd Vance would

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Speaker 3: have done to Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 4: Oh, that's the only part of last night that was

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Speaker 4: disappointing for me. It would have been almost worth it

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Speaker 4: just to have that whole situation.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it would have been an a visceration the

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Speaker 3: other thing I'll say, and we need to kind of

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Speaker 3: dive into this more.

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Speaker 2: I also think this is.

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Speaker 3: Why I know people get mad when people sit for

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Speaker 3: these antagonistic interviews, But iron sharpens iron. Jd Vance was

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Speaker 3: ready for them to hit him with the most biased,

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Speaker 3: the most unfair, the most rigged questions. Because he has

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Speaker 3: been sitting for these interviews.

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Speaker 2: He was prepared. He didn't need to go through a

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Speaker 2: ton of prep.

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Speaker 3: And I thought Walls when he got one actually confrontational question,

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Speaker 3: crumbled because they've tried to hide him. And actually, you

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Speaker 3: do a disservice to your candidate when you don't allow

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Speaker 3: them to be aggressively questioned, because then when it happens,

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Speaker 3: they crumble. It's like in sports when you don't play

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Speaker 3: against any good competition and suddenly you're down in a game.

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Speaker 3: Are you going to go and get a different level

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Speaker 3: of commitment and excellence or are you going to crumble

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Speaker 3: if you haven't tested yourself. Most people crumble, And I

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Speaker 3: thought that's what Walls did. If he had really gotten

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Speaker 3: aggressively questioned Buck, I think he would have fallen apart

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Speaker 3: even worse than I thought he did under that line

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Speaker 3: of question eight.

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Speaker 4: But I really do think, and I know maybe it

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Speaker 4: sounds like I'm like, you know, mister Rogers inviting everybody

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Speaker 4: to the neighborhood or something, but it was nice to

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Speaker 4: have a debate where put us on the monter is

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Speaker 4: are trash. We've called that out, so let's be clear.

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Speaker 4: I wish I wish we would stop this thing of

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Speaker 4: like we need to have Democrat partisans hosting like it's

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Speaker 4: put it on Rogan put it on I.

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Speaker 2: Mean our show.

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Speaker 4: It's funny because, like you know, we'd be considered right wing.

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Speaker 4: I guess whatever, fine, but.

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Speaker 3: We would do a phenomenal job as moderators of it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I unbelieve. Here's the thing.

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Speaker 4: Questions don't have to be rigged. You could just say, hey, uh,

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Speaker 4: Tim Walls, about ten million about ten million people have

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Speaker 4: come across the border through non legal or you sort

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Speaker 4: of super legal means under Kamala's watch. What do you

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Speaker 4: think about that? And what are you going to do

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Speaker 4: about it going forward?

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Speaker 2: Hey?

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Speaker 4: Jd Vance, if Trump is president, how is he going

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Speaker 4: to stop?

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Speaker 6: That?

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Speaker 2: Was it?

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Speaker 4: You can ask questions agree where the answer is what matters.

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Speaker 4: Last night it was the usual thing of like, well,

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Speaker 4: Tim Wall, since you care about women's rights to bodily

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Speaker 4: autonomy and don't don't want to turn them into slaves

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Speaker 4: of their wombs, you know. And then it's Jade Vans,

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Speaker 4: JD Van, since you're like a misogynist pig, what do

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Speaker 4: you think? I mean, it's very obvious what they will.

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Speaker 3: And even even on Hurricane Helene, it's not Hey, why

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Speaker 3: is there not a more federal resources being committed? It's

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Speaker 3: all you think this impacts climate change. I mean, I

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Speaker 3: think it was the second friggin question that they asked.

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Speaker 2: We'll come back people, some.

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Speaker 4: Of your people that believe climate change is that level

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Speaker 4: of important. So the same mentality and the same IQ

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Speaker 4: as people that walk around with masks on outside. Still

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Speaker 4: for COVID, I'm just saying a.

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Speaker 2: Lot of those overlaps. For sure.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to twenty four The Year of Impact with

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Speaker 1: Clay and Bucks.

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Speaker 4: Art Laugher joins us now doctor Art Lafer, former Reagan

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Speaker 4: economic advisor, a guy behind a Laugher curve, makes sense

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Speaker 4: and author, brilliant minds, all that good stuff, Doctor Laffer.

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Speaker 4: Appreciate you being with us.

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Speaker 7: My pleasure, my pleasure. Thank you for having me. By

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Speaker 7: the way, I love your show.

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Speaker 4: Thank you well. You have excellent taste in radio as

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Speaker 4: well as being an economic genius. So tell us this,

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Speaker 4: tell us this, sir, if you would, if we were

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Speaker 4: to give a you know, not just the talking points. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: that's why we have you on to give us the

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Speaker 4: reality of it, right, the Biden Kamala economy of the

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Speaker 4: last four years. If you were prepping, let's say, Trump

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Speaker 4: to go into a debate and make the case about

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Speaker 4: what it is, what has actually gone wrong? What has

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Speaker 4: gone right? I mean, what is your scorecard for the

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Speaker 4: US economy under the stewardship of Biden the last four years.

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Speaker 7: Well, you know, if I were Trump doing this, I

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Speaker 7: would first place tell the story of what I did

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Speaker 7: as Trump during my first term. And it's my opinion

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Speaker 7: and as an economist, and I'm just talking about economics,

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Speaker 7: and that's it is. It was the single best first

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Speaker 7: term of any president in US history from the standpoint

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Speaker 7: of economics. And the energy policy was terrific. As you know,

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Speaker 7: we were energy independent because of decontrol because of his policies. There,

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Speaker 7: Biden and Harris went the exact opposite direction. He also

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Speaker 7: did an amazing job with operational warp speed. I mean,

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Speaker 7: he developed a vaccine in ten months, little less than

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Speaker 7: ten months. It was a phenomenal vaccine. By spending some

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Speaker 7: money and by getting rid of all the red tape

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Speaker 7: it people expected it would take six years or so,

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Speaker 7: and it didn't. He did it in ten months. I mean, amazing.

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Speaker 7: Right to try the idea that if you've got a

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Speaker 7: terminal disease, you can try any drug you'd like to

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Speaker 7: do and not have to have FDA approval. I think

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Speaker 7: that was phenomenal as well. One I think that was

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Speaker 7: done in the debate with Vance and Waltz was that

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Speaker 7: medical transparency, price transparency. The executive Order. Trump did a

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Speaker 7: phenomenal job on that. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

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Speaker 7: worked perfectly. I mean, it really did pay for itself

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Speaker 7: in the first two years, and it brought the rates down,

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Speaker 7: me much more competitive, led to firm economic growth, and

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Speaker 7: there were no delays, no mistakes made in that bill.

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Speaker 7: The death tax was reduced quite substantially. All of that

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Speaker 7: was done. The personal income task drop from thirty nine

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Speaker 7: six to thirty seven. There were a couple of passers there.

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Speaker 7: I mean, he did a superb job. And then you

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Speaker 7: compare that with Biden, who raised tax rates, who did

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Speaker 7: a lot of spending. You know, Trump did spending by

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Speaker 7: the way, once the pandemic hit, which I don't think

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Speaker 7: should have been done, at least a lot of it

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Speaker 7: shouldn't have been. But Biden did it the whole time

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Speaker 7: there and just wasted the money. And I think the

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Speaker 7: operation of the Fed under Biden, under Powell and Biden's

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Speaker 7: term led to very high inflation as well. So the

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Speaker 7: way I take it is in almost every single area

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Speaker 7: of economics, Trump far exceeds Biden, not only in volume

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Speaker 7: but in direction. I think Trump did tax cuts, Biden

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Speaker 7: did tax increases of government spending. Trump did spending cuts

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Speaker 7: until the pandemic, and Biden did increases right from the

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Speaker 7: get go. I mean, look at defense again, the same

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Speaker 7: thing there. The one thing I would really juxtapose where

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Speaker 7: where I Trump and Biden, where I Trump and Biden

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Speaker 7: or Harris is the role played by by peace through strength,

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Speaker 7: the sort of the old Reagan doctrine of peace through strength,

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Speaker 7: where Trump really followed it precisely, and Biden and Harris

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Speaker 7: did just the opposite policy. They did war through war

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Speaker 7: through weakness. And so that's where that's where I'd come

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Speaker 7: out on the two teams. And Trump is just amazing

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Speaker 7: on economics and on international politics.

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Speaker 3: Okay, I wanted to have you on, doctor Laffer, and

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Speaker 3: I appreciate it. I've gotten to meet you a couple

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Speaker 3: of times. You live in Nashville. I think you got

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Speaker 3: one hundred and sixty three grandkids, which I'm glad to

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Speaker 3: have your genes because we need as much intelligence and

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Speaker 3: economics as we can. But I want to dive in

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Speaker 3: because you're so good at explaining this. You have advised

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Speaker 3: or been involved with high level politicians for forty fifty years.

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Speaker 2: I mean, like you said, going back to Reagan first, I.

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Speaker 7: Was in nineteen seventy. I was in the White House

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Speaker 7: at George Else's right hand person in nineteen seventy.

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Speaker 3: Okay, going all the way back to nineteen seventy, I

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Speaker 3: look and hear Kamala Harris speak, and I think to myself,

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Speaker 3: she is functionally, it seems to me economically illiterate, at

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Speaker 3: least with what she is saying publicly. She's talking about

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Speaker 3: price controls on grocery stores. You know this, Grocery stores

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Speaker 3: have one of the lowest level profits we've got in

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Speaker 3: any industry out there. She says that price gouging is

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Speaker 3: going on, and seems to be citing things like what

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Speaker 3: would happen with Hurricane Helene. We have laws that are

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Speaker 3: in place that you shouldn't be able to suddenly charge

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Speaker 3: ten dollars a gallon for a milk or for a

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Speaker 3: gallon of gas or whatever else because there's a natural disaster.

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Speaker 3: She doesn't seem to understand what those price cap regulations

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Speaker 3: are associated with. Since nineteen seventy. Where does Kamala Harris

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Speaker 3: rank to you from an economic policy perspective. Let's say

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Speaker 3: there's just people out there making a decision. Hey, I

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Speaker 3: just wanted best economy out there because I think a

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Speaker 3: rising tide lifts all but votes. That's what the president

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Speaker 3: should do, That's what the federal government should do. Where

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Speaker 3: does Kamala rank in your experience?

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Speaker 7: Well, I'm one hundred and six percent with you on

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Speaker 7: the rising tide. The Kennedy model. Is this the perfect

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Speaker 7: model for this? To be honest with you, I mean,

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Speaker 7: if you judge her by Biden that she was complicit

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Speaker 7: in all of the Biden policies, you know, she's a

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Speaker 7: big spending liberal Democrat, clear and simple and buying votes

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Speaker 7: from other groups and causing the economy to weigh underperform.

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Speaker 7: I mean, that would be the perfect example. Price controls

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Speaker 7: is just something she naturally grabs to because she's been

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Speaker 7: raised in government all of her life, so she thinks,

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Speaker 7: if there's a problem, always go to government for a solution,

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Speaker 7: and price controls. I don't think she's aware of all

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Speaker 7: the problems we had with price controls under Nixon and

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Speaker 7: they just didn't work. They caused all sorts of dislocations,

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Speaker 7: and I don't think she understood. She's just trying to

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Speaker 7: She's just trying to explain or trying to justify, or

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Speaker 7: trying to make excuses for why there was such high

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Speaker 7: inflation under Biden Harris, and that you get the gougers, etc.

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Speaker 7: In fact, it was her economic policies that slowed economic growth.

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Speaker 7: It was hers and Biden's economic monetary policies that increase

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Speaker 7: the monetary base, the balanceship sheet of the Fed. I mean,

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Speaker 7: what was it in two thousand and eight? I think

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Speaker 7: the balance sheet was at eight fifty eight billion something

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Speaker 7: like that, in a fifty eight billion, and at its

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Speaker 7: peak under Biden Harris it was at nine point three trillion.

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Speaker 7: I mean, is it any wonder we had in high

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Speaker 7: inflation under them? That was exactly what happened. And they

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Speaker 7: also caused the economy to slow way way down, which

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Speaker 7: further added to inflationary pressure. So this is what she's

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Speaker 7: trying to do, and she's just trying to find excuses

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Speaker 7: and to see if something sticks by throwing it against

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Speaker 7: the wall. I'm not sure how she'll behave once she's

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Speaker 7: in office, though.

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Speaker 3: What do you think, doctor Laffer. Let's pretend that COVID

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Speaker 3: doesn't happen. Trump in February of twenty twenty, I think

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Speaker 3: we had the strongest economy in the history of the

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Speaker 3: United States, White, Black, Asian, Hispanic wages arising. Inflation's one

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Speaker 3: point four percent or whatever the heck it was two

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Speaker 3: and a half percent, mortgage rates. People have more money

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Speaker 3: in their pocket. If COVID doesn't happen. And we're having

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Speaker 3: this conversation right now, how good do you think a

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Speaker 3: second term? Because I think Trump would have won without

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Speaker 3: COVID for sure, How good do you think a second

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Speaker 3: Trump term would have been for the economy? And where

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Speaker 3: do you think we'd be sitting right now?

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Speaker 7: Well, you know, I think everyone agrees with you that

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Speaker 7: Tump would have won in a landslide, maybe get forty

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Speaker 7: nine states. I think even Saturday Night Live conceded that

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Speaker 7: time and time until the COVID hit, and the COVID

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Speaker 7: became the perfect opportunity, opportunity for the Democrats to try

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Speaker 7: to knock him down, and they succeeded in that. If

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Speaker 7: it hadn't have occurred, I think we would have had

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Speaker 7: the best presidency ever in US history. His first term

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Speaker 7: was singularly the best in economics of any presidency in

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Speaker 7: its first term period. And I really went through a

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Speaker 7: bunch of them there with you. But there was a

437
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 7: lot more in deregulation, ten deregulations for everyone, the Supreme

438
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:08,439
Speaker 7: Court that he appointed, and I'm not talking social issues

439
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 7: now here, I'm talking just economics. They reined back all

440
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:15,400
Speaker 7: the regulatory agencies to not be able to legislate through

441
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:19,360
Speaker 7: regulations through the regulatory agencies. I mean, how cool is that?

442
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 7: I mean, all of this stuff. I think Trump, with

443
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,640
Speaker 7: the Supreme Court, he had, with the Congress he would

444
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 7: have had as well, could have done a job even

445
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 7: better than Reagan did on the second term. And Reagan's

446
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,479
Speaker 7: second term was spectacular. I mean Reagan cut the highest

447
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 7: tax rate in his two terms from seventy percent to

448
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 7: twenty eight percent. He raised the lowest rate from twelve

449
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 7: and a half percent to fifteen. He went from eleven

450
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 7: tax brackets to two tax brackets. He cut the corporate

451
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 7: rate from forty six to thirty four. I mean he

452
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 7: got rid of all those deductions, exemptions, exclusions, loopholes. I

453
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 7: mean we got a vote in the Senate for the

454
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 7: bill for the eighty six Tax Act of seven to three.

455
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 7: We had all the Libs to vote with us because

456
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,159
Speaker 7: it was the right thing to do. I think Trump

457
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 7: could have matched that easily and done an even better

458
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 7: job than Reagan did if he had not had the

459
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 7: pandemic and been elected. So I'm really very sad that

460
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 7: he wasn't reelected without the pandemic. I mean, it would

461
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 7: have been just a phenomenal period. We would have been

462
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 7: We wouldn't have had any of these wars in the

463
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 7: Middle Least, we wouldn't be in the Ukraine. We wouldn't

464
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,360
Speaker 7: have Houti rebels firing rockets at our ships or any

465
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 7: of that stuff. It would have been pieced through strength.

466
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 7: And the strength is in the economy as well as

467
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 7: defense and strength.

468
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 4: We speaking of Art Laffer and Art I'm sorry, Ar.

469
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 4: I just wanted to say, if you could take us

470
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 4: for a look ahead. Let's say that the American people

471
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 4: do the right thing and Donald Trump does win for

472
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:51,359
Speaker 4: more years. A lot of it will be the reinstituting

473
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 4: of policies that you've been discussing that were so successful.

474
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 4: But what would you add to that, or what would

475
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 4: you say would be top of the economic agenda for

476
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 4: Trump term two to really get things cooking again.

477
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 7: I really think price transparency, healthcare transparency. You know, there

478
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 7: is a huge you know, we've had a huge reduction

479
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 7: in our life expectancy relative to the OECD over the

480
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 7: last fifty plus years, and a huge increase in the

481
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 7: cost of healthcare over that same time period, again relative

482
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 7: to the OECD. I mean, we have been suffering enormously

483
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,679
Speaker 7: because we don't have price transparency. You don't know what

484
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 7: the prices are, you don't know what the qualities are.

485
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 7: It's all hidden in insurance companies, policies, et cetera. And

486
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 7: we need price transparency, which I think Trump should do.

487
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 7: I think Trump will do it, and I think it

488
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 7: will have an enormous impact. Remember, healthcare is something like

489
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 7: twenty percent of GDP, and to have a non market

490
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 7: economy as twenty percent of the GDP is just killing us.

491
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 7: I mean literally and figuratively. That I think is the

492
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:54,159
Speaker 7: single most important thing to do.

493
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 3: We're talking to doctor Art Laffer. Last question for you

494
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 3: at Actually, my sixteen year old who is junior in

495
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 3: high school right now, wanted me to ask you about this. Oh,

496
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 3: he's fired up about the national debt and the concept

497
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 3: he does debate and the concept of modern monetary theory,

498
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 3: and he wants to know. And I said, I'm talking

499
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 3: to a super smart economist on the show. He knows

500
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 3: who you are, he studied your work. I think he's

501
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 3: going to major in economics when he gets older. He

502
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 3: wants to know at what rate does our national debt

503
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 3: become so crippling that no matter what political party you

504
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 3: are are supporting, it becomes incredibly difficult to get the

505
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 3: economy rolling because of the weight of that national debt.

506
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 7: I think we're miles and miles and miles away from

507
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 7: that type of crux. If you look at debt, you

508
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 7: should never compare it to GDP. You know, everyone says

509
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 7: it's one hundred and twenty percent of GDP or whatever

510
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 7: the numbers are. You should always compare debt to wealth

511
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 7: or debt service to GDP. If you look at debt

512
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 7: to wealth, you know it's too high, but it's not critical.

513
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 7: Don't jump out the window. If you look at debt

514
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 7: service to GDP, it's still too high, but we have

515
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 7: plenty from to be able to grow our way out

516
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 7: of this debt. And remember always that it's not debt

517
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 7: that's the problem. Debt is a tool. It's the spread.

518
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 7: If you use the spending to pay people not to work,

519
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 7: that's kills your economy. If you use the spending to

520
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 7: create jobs, output employment, by cutting taxes and by increasing

521
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 7: defenses we did under Reagan, it's the biggest boon to

522
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 7: economic growth you can imagine. So I would tell your son,

523
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 7: you know, don't get overly worried about the debt. It's

524
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,439
Speaker 7: not a debt problem. We can grow out of this

525
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 7: debt with good policies very easily. And it shouldn't be

526
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 7: people shouldn't be on the edge of their chairs jumping

527
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 7: out the windows. It's not the biggest problem. We need

528
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 7: a low rate, broad based slat tax, spending restraints, sound money,

529
00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 7: minimal regulations, and free trade and this economy will take

530
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:02,880
Speaker 7: care of debt in minutes.

531
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 4: Hi, love after our life. I appreciate you being with us, sir.

532
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 7: My pleasure. Thank you very much for having me and

533
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 7: say hello to that child of yours.

534
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 2: I will for sure, sir, thank you.

535
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,919
Speaker 7: Hope, I hope the answer was okay for him.

536
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 3: He'll love it. He's in class for now, but we'll

537
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 3: play it for him.

538
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the deal. Thank you.

539
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 1: You're listening to twenty four the most important tier in

540
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 1: politics with Clay Travis and Box Sexton.

541
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,679
Speaker 3: So we bring in now Ryan Gurdusky. I am a subscriber,

542
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 3: encourage you to be a subscriber as well. He is

543
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 3: the National Populist newsletter, founder of the seventeen seventy six

544
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 3: Project Pack, and a master of election data.

545
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 2: And Ryan, I want to start with this.

546
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 3: I saw you tweet this out shortly ago, numbers in Pennsylvania,

547
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 3: and I think you would agree with with both Buck

548
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 3: and me that this is the biggest state. If you

549
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: had to point to one state and say, hey, we

550
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:03,720
Speaker 3: want to know what the data is going to show

551
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 3: there absentee ballot request through October third, Democrats are substantially

552
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 3: underperforming what they did in twenty twenty. Is this a

553
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 3: big story? A non story? Take us into what the

554
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 3: data is showing us an absentee ballot request in Pennsylvania.

555
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 8: Hey, thanks for having me on.

556
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 7: Yes.

557
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 8: So they're not only performing their twenty twenty numbers, which

558
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 8: would make sense given that it was COVID and a

559
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 8: lot of people, especially Democrats, were afraid to be around people.

560
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 8: But they're underperforming at twenty twenty two ballot requests so far.

561
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 8: So as of right now, Democrats in the state of

562
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 8: Pennsylvania have requested nine hundred and thirty thousand absentee ballots.

563
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 8: That's sixty one point six percent of all absentee ballads.

564
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 8: Republicans have requested four hundred and eight thousand. In independence,

565
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 8: one hundred and seventy one thousand. Republicans make about twenty

566
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 8: seven percent of all absentee the ballots. Republicans are getting

567
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 8: about seven thousand to eight thousand new absentee requests per day,

568
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 8: Democrats about eight or nine thousand. That is a significant

569
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 8: difference from twenty twenty two and from twenty twenty not

570
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 8: just a mere physical number, but a percentage overall. One

571
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 8: of the reasons why Democrats were so successful in twenty

572
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 8: twenty two, aside from Republicans dominating a crazy person for governor,

573
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 8: was because in twenty twenty two, Democrats walked into election

574
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 8: day having a six hundred and fifty thousand absentee ballot

575
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 8: requests and they had sixty almost sixty nine percent of

576
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 8: all absentee ballot requests. There is a very very very

577
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 8: high chance that come this election at end of this month,

578
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 8: when affency ballots are cut off. I believe on October

579
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 8: twenty seven, Democrats will be under sixty percent, probably close

580
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 8: to fifty nine. If Republicans can manage to get over

581
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 8: thirty percent, and they're getting about point one percent per day,

582
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 8: point two point one and a half percent per day,

583
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,719
Speaker 8: that they will get over thirty and Democrats will under fifty.

584
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 8: Now that doesn't mean that Democrats won't show up on

585
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 8: election day, but it does mean that Republicans are not

586
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 8: going into election day with such a massive deficit that

587
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 8: they can't come out.

588
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 3: Now, what would democrats sorry to cut you off? What

589
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 3: would democrats say if they were trying to make the

590
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 3: case for why this doesn't matter? In other words, there's

591
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 3: always data, as you know, and sometimes data can tell

592
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 3: multiple stories. Is there anything that Democrats could argue based

593
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 3: on this that you think would undercut that Republicans are

594
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 3: doing better than anticipated in Pennsylvania?

595
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 8: Right, So what they're going to sit there and say

596
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 8: is that Republicans are cannibalizing their election day vote, that

597
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 8: people who would have voted an election day are just

598
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 8: voting early and it doesn't actually change the total the

599
00:31:56,880 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 8: end day, the actual end number. What's going on in Virginia,

600
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 8: which is very interesting, which obviously is a different state.

601
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 8: It's a much less competitive state. The state that commonhows

602
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 8: is most likely going to win is that the amount

603
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 8: of people who have zero early voting history, as our

604
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 8: zero voting history, peop who have never voted before are

605
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 8: inching up close to five percent. Many in Trump leaning precincts,

606
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 8: people who have never voted before that are they are

607
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 8: shown and voting early. Also, people with low propensity voting

608
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 8: history are also inching up between in Virginia. Offensive of Virginia,

609
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 8: twenty three percent of all people who have voted early

610
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 8: in Virginia have either never voted before or very very

611
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 8: infrequently vote. That's a large percentage. It's a little higher

612
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 8: than normal, and it's coming a lot of times out

613
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 8: of Trump. It's precincts and districts that Trump won. If

614
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 8: that is true in Pennsylvania as well, and we're seeing

615
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 8: a little bit in the Mercer County area, a little

616
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 8: bit in some areas that have a very heavy rural

617
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 8: turnout which are very Trump friendly, that we're seeing the

618
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 8: same exact thing right now. Republicans are ahead of Democrats

619
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 8: in seventeen of the sixty seven counties. By the middle

620
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 8: of next week, they're going to be ahead in about

621
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 8: twenty two counties. So we're going to see the numbers

622
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 8: come in. We're in rural counties, but Trump would have

623
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 8: won no matter what the numbers going into election day.

624
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 8: The numbers of votes that are completely banked for election

625
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 8: day are going to be a sizably Republican where anything

626
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 8: on election Day on top of that is just kind

627
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 8: of gravy to offset votes coming out of Montgomery County,

628
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 8: Alleghany County, Philadelphia County. And that's how the election is

629
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 8: waned if those votes out of rural counties are so

630
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 8: high and so heavy that they offset suburbs and the

631
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 8: urban areas like Philadelphia and Alleghany County.

632
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 4: Ryan Grodowski with us Now seventeen seventy six, Project pac

633
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 4: founder and a national populist newsletter on Substack. Ryan the

634
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 4: Right now Kamala's performance in the polls relative to Joe Biden,

635
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 4: who is she doing better with? Who is she underperforming with?

636
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 4: Because I feel like that gives us a pretty good

637
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 4: indication of how this is really going right.

638
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 8: That's a great question. In so, according to there's a

639
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 8: narrative in the media that Harris has unprecedented female support

640
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 8: that's not really showing up in the polling averages. She's

641
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 8: about fifteen points ahead among women voters overall. That's exactly

642
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 8: where Harris and Biden were, sorry, Clinton and Biden were

643
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,879
Speaker 8: in twenty sixteen and in twenty twenty. The difference in

644
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 8: these polls that have a tide race, like the Quinnipiac Poll, CNN,

645
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:55,439
Speaker 8: Emerson Marit, Fox News, Pew Research, the New York Times

646
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 8: Ciena poll, they all either have the candidates up or

647
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 8: down by a point are exactly tied. Versus those races

648
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 8: that have Kama with a five point national lead. Is

649
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 8: the male vote in the role and the races that

650
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 8: have Kamala with a substantial four or five point lead nationwide,

651
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 8: She's doing as well. We sorry, Trump is doing as

652
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 8: well with men as he did in twenty twenty against

653
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 8: Joe Biden in the races where in the polls that

654
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 8: have him tied. Trump is doing as well with men

655
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 8: as he did against Clinton in twenty sixteen. So much

656
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 8: has been made about the female vote in this election,

657
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 8: when the real story is how much are men turning up?

658
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 8: Are they showing up our men are men actually being

659
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 8: active in elections because women always vote, usually more than

660
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 8: men do. And how heavily are they siding with Trump?

661
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 8: Because we've heard a number of stories of Trump getting

662
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 8: support among black, young black men, young Hispanic men, white

663
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 8: working class males. If they show up and if the

664
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 8: polls are accurate, I think you're going to see elections

665
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 8: that look a lot more like twenty sixteen than in

666
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 8: twenty twenty. But the question is will men and actually

667
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:01,760
Speaker 8: start showing up and voting?

668
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 3: Ryan, if you were setting odds right now as we

669
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 3: sit basically one month out from election day, who has

670
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 3: the better case to win? In your opinion based on

671
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 3: the data and what you're seeing on the map, Trump

672
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 3: or Kamala? How would you assess where we're sitting.

673
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 8: So there's two different stories going on. The public polls

674
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 8: give Kamala a slight edge. You're seeing averages and most

675
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:29,320
Speaker 8: predictors say Kamala has a fifty five percent chance. Private

676
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,280
Speaker 8: polls from what I've been hearing in Wisconsin, in Michigan

677
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 8: and Pennsylvania, have Kamala down where they're substantially more worried.

678
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 8: There was even a poll done by the end by

679
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:43,359
Speaker 8: the ARP which was done by Trump's polster. But the

680
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 8: internals I know for fact, to have Trump ahead in

681
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 8: Pennsylvania versus the public which have Trump down, that's a

682
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 8: big question. Tammy Baldwin would not refuse to go make

683
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 8: a public appearance in Wisconsin with Kamala Harris if she

684
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 8: was polling well. A slogan who's running in the US

685
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 8: Senate in Michigan made a huge headline earlier this week

686
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 8: for saying their internals have heard down. That is probably

687
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 8: something that is worth keeping an eye on. For as

688
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 8: much as they are saying, oh, there could be a

689
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 8: polling error, there is a much different story going on

690
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 8: in a lot of internal polls than there are public polls.

691
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 8: And Democrats are counting on early turnout right now to

692
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 8: sit there in bank on it. If Republicans absentee vote chase,

693
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 8: if they're early vote chase, to get low propensity people,

694
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 8: people who can't be counted on because they're just not

695
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 8: as passionate of politics as let's say, like you or

696
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 8: I are, then that will that will not mean as much,

697
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 8: and we'll go into election day with maybe a Harris

698
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 8: lead slightly but enough that Trump could easily overcome it

699
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 8: with election day.

700
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 4: Votes ran how's it looking in Arizona both the presidential

701
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 4: race and the Senate race there?

702
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 8: So in Arizona presidential as it looks very good. I mean,

703
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 8: the Republicans have consistently been pulling out head. Trump has

704
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 8: consistently been pulling ahead, you know, everywhere basically in the state.

705
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:08,799
Speaker 8: I'm pretty bullish on Arizona, and it's a state that

706
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 8: you know, have been trending away from Republicans for a while.

707
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 8: He leads overall. Trump leaves overall by an average of

708
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 8: one point four. But Fox News have him up three,

709
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 8: Matters them up one. New York Times is them up five.

710
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 8: It looks like a pretty healthy lead, accurrnt to almost

711
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:27,399
Speaker 8: every polster. The story in the US in a race

712
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 8: is a completely different one where carry Lake is in

713
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 8: very bad shape going into this election.

714
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 4: How behind is she?

715
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 8: I've heard as much as like a double digit loss

716
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:44,240
Speaker 8: from people reliable people, or a very high single digit loss,

717
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 8: where almost there's almost a ten point swing between the

718
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 8: US Senate race and the US presidential race. People going

719
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 8: in and Trump winning independence by a big number or

720
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 8: a sizeable number, rather and her losing by double digits.

721
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 3: We've talked a lot about Helene and how awful it

722
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 3: is for so many people in all Southeastern states around

723
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 3: the Appalachian region where this hurricane came through. We played

724
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 3: a cut of David Axelrod saying, yes, Ashville's a blue dot,

725
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 3: but basically those voters are smarter, more sophisticated, They're going

726
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 3: to find a way to go vote, whereas the Trump voters,

727
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 3: he basically is saying, are struggling more and will not.

728
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 3: What are the chances in your mind, given there was

729
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 3: only a seventy thousand vote margin that this storm, based

730
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 3: on the people that had displaced and the people that

731
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,840
Speaker 3: are severely struggling right now even to make it out alive,

732
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 3: that that could swing the outcome of North Carolina, maybe

733
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 3: impact Georgia as well, given how close vote those states are.

734
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 3: Is that the I know, seriously, we've talked a lot,

735
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 3: and we're going to be raising a lot of money

736
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:56,879
Speaker 3: to just try to help everybody there. But how much

737
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:00,080
Speaker 3: of a political factor do you think the storm and

738
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 3: the displacement is.

739
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 8: Yeah, it depends on how It's very hard when you

740
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 8: look at the strong displacement, they see what precincts they're

741
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 8: out of obviously, you know, the city of Asheville, the

742
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 8: county to Asheville is in, had about a thirty five

743
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:18,280
Speaker 8: thousand vote margin in favor of Joe Biden in twenty twenty.

744
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 8: Remember it's not just the city of Asheville, which literally

745
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 8: throws ninety ten goes ninety ten Democrat, but the suburbs

746
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 8: of Asheville are also pretty democratic. The areas around Asheville

747
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 8: and the counties that surround the county of Ashevill's and

748
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 8: have about a thirty to thirty five thousand vote lead

749
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 8: for Trump in twenty twenty. It could be. I mean,

750
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 8: it depends obviously what areas are affected, what laws they

751
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 8: sit there, and changes somehow to allow people to vote

752
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 8: maybe in a different county if they show their registration

753
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 8: or whatnot. There is you know, a decent Lettle level

754
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 8: of time to sit there and try to find out

755
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 8: where people are, but it's hard to it's really difficult

756
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:02,840
Speaker 8: at this moment, is that there and kind of estimate

757
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 8: how impactful it is and how how much it will

758
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 8: change the election. I will say in twenty twelve, twenty twelve,

759
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 8: Mitt Romney lost Staten Island, which John McCain won, and

760
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 8: Obviously Donald Trump won by a huge margin quite a

761
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:23,399
Speaker 8: bit because of hurricanes or Superstorm Sandy. So it's not

762
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:25,919
Speaker 8: because it displaced me from the south short of the Island,

763
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:28,719
Speaker 8: which are very Republican. It could have that kind of

764
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 8: effect absolutely where the region votes differently. But I would

765
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,800
Speaker 8: sit there and say that as probably as many Democratic

766
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 8: precincts are, you know, in a very very very bad

767
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 8: situation as Republican precincts. It just really matters where they

768
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 8: actually affected and what laws are changedcause they're not all

769
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 8: affected equally, and will have to kind of wait and see.

770
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 8: It's very hard to kind of estimate as of now, Ryan,

771
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 8: Western North Carolina is probably the most democratic part of Appalachia.

772
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 8: So it's as less republican than p Well, it's not

773
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,440
Speaker 8: as republican as as Northwest Georgia, not as republican as

774
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 8: Virginia or Kentucky or Tennessee. So it's not the most

775
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:09,760
Speaker 8: republican part of North Carolina.

776
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 7: Believe it or not.

777
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:14,399
Speaker 3: We are talking to Ryan Gerdusky. Ryan, we appreciate the time.

778
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 3: I'm sure we'll talk to you again. For people who

779
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 3: want to follow you, encourage you to go to subscribe

780
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 3: to Ryan's substack and also go follow him on Twitter

781
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 3: for the data that he is putting out.

782
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 2: Appreciate the time.

783
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:28,360
Speaker 8: Thank you.

784
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 1: You're listening to twenty four The Year of Impact with

785
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 1: Clay and Buck.

786
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:38,719
Speaker 4: We're joined by Julie Kelly Declassified is her substack, which

787
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 4: you can subscribe to. You know, Julie just want to

788
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 4: say before we dive into the latest law fair shenanigans.

789
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 2: You know, we have spent.

790
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 4: Really the entire show on what we think is actually

791
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 4: the most important story in the country today. I know

792
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 4: you agree, which is what's going on in this aftermath

793
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 4: of Helene and the relief efforts. But we didn't want

794
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 4: to leave it out there. You know, we don't want

795
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 4: anyone to say, oh, well, they're not talking about the

796
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 4: big Jack Smith bomb that was dropped. You know, they're avoided.

797
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 4: So of course, you know we we will address this now,

798
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 4: you know, I guess the first way to do it.

799
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 4: And just to be clear that the Democrat media thinks

800
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 4: it's the most important thing in the whole country, right,

801
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 4: I mean, they're far more important. Clay and I were

802
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 4: reading the headlines New York Times, Washington Post much more

803
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:29,360
Speaker 4: concerned with Jack Smith's latest thing than what's going on

804
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:34,800
Speaker 4: in the you know, Carolinas and the area is impacted

805
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 4: by the hurricane. But okay, so they're saying this, we

806
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:40,439
Speaker 4: have an election coming up, talk to us. Anything new

807
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 4: in this and what what's why is this supposed to

808
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:43,720
Speaker 4: be in October?

809
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 9: Surprise because there isn't a lot new in here. A

810
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:55,279
Speaker 9: lot of this has been sort of regurgitated from I

811
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 9: want to make sure my mic is on okay, good,

812
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 9: regurgitated from both the House impeachment against Donald Trump for

813
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 9: J six and of course the J six House Committee report.

814
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 9: But what this does, and how I have described it

815
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:12,720
Speaker 9: is Jack Smith's opening arguments for a case that will

816
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 9: never make it to trial. This week watered down and

817
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 9: in some instances still unlawful for account indictment that Jack

818
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 9: Smith has against Donald Trump will never survive a Supreme

819
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 9: Court test again, both for immunity and the Fisher decision,

820
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 9: which is we've talked about fifteen twelve C. Two the

821
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:37,280
Speaker 9: Supreme Court overturning how the DOJ has applied that post

822
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 9: and run statute. It represents two of the four counts

823
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 9: in this indictment. This is never going to trial, even

824
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 9: if Donald Trump loses. So this is his opening argument.

825
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 9: Jack Smith is a partisan political hack, a former Obama,

826
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 9: a DOJ official, who also has been overturned by the

827
00:44:57,280 --> 00:45:01,720
Speaker 9: Supreme Court nine to nothing and the Robert mc donald conviction,

828
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 9: and he's he's got a record of losing. So this

829
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:10,800
Speaker 9: is his only opportunity to not just salvage this j

830
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 9: sixth case in the public square, but also try to

831
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 9: salvage the remaining shards of his decaying reputation. So that

832
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 9: is what we're seeing from what I call this dirty

833
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 9: dotsia with the Steele dossier in twenty sixteen. Now we've

834
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 9: got Jack Smith dossier. But to your point, the media

835
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 9: has they are acting like it was Christmas Day yesterday.

836
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 9: Jake Tapper's on CNN, He's waving the one hundred and sixty

837
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 9: five pages around. You've got the analysts there and the

838
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:43,919
Speaker 9: commentators talking about how this will be a fatal blow

839
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 9: to Donald Trump's candidacy, that he will not win reelection

840
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 9: because of this issue. But again, it also gives cover

841
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:54,319
Speaker 9: for the real scandals and the real crises, which is

842
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:58,320
Speaker 9: of course the devastation, the apocalyptic images that are coming

843
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 9: out of North Carolina, and also the other crises that

844
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 9: we have, you know, war in the Middle East on

845
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 9: a few different fronts, and open southern border with criminal

846
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 9: migrants coming across into our country. So this is a

847
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 9: perfect cover for the media, the Democrats and the Harris

848
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 9: Walls ticket to pivot away from the real issues to

849
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 9: again this four hour disturbance almost now four years ago.

850
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 3: You know, I love this, Julie, because I was out

851
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:29,400
Speaker 3: watching eighth grade football last night. My phone blows up

852
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:31,719
Speaker 3: with Oh my goodness, can you I thought, Oh, what's

853
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 3: going on here? I go look, and I'm like, this

854
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:36,319
Speaker 3: story is not going to last twenty four hours. And

855
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 3: it's interesting. This story came out and Donald Trump today

856
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:43,640
Speaker 3: actually in the betting markets, which I like to follow,

857
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 3: took the lead over Kamala. Harris so Buck and I

858
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 3: have been talking about New York Times, Washington Post. It's

859
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 3: their top four or five stories. Meanwhile, people are dying

860
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 3: in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina with the storm

861
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 3: that came through that Biden and Kamala can't seem to

862
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:02,840
Speaker 3: respond to. But it landed, to use a phrase from

863
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 3: the Obama administration, really like a nothing burger. And then

864
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 3: they're going to desperately try to make it happen, and

865
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 3: then I'll tell you what's going to happen.

866
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 2: In twenty four hours. Even the ardent.

867
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:15,319
Speaker 3: Left is not going to be fueling the clicks and

868
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 3: the ratings that they need, and it's going to be over.

869
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 2: And I can only imagine.

870
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:21,680
Speaker 3: I think the last time we had you on Julie,

871
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 3: I was saying, I want a Jack Smith cam for

872
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:27,800
Speaker 3: election night if Trump wins. This guy has spent years

873
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:30,920
Speaker 3: of his life now trying to get Trump, and Trump

874
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 3: is actually gonna end up president of the United States. All

875
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 3: of his work is going to go up in smoke

876
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:36,480
Speaker 3: and he's basically his career's over.

877
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 9: Yes, let's hope his career is over, and let's hope

878
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:45,840
Speaker 9: that there is accountability because what this document Clay represents,

879
00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 9: what he filed yesterday is the most brazen, egregious example

880
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:55,560
Speaker 9: of DOJ interference, not just interference in a presidential campaign,

881
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 9: our presidential race, but doing using the full weight of

882
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 9: the Heartment of Justice, the most powerful law enforcement agency

883
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 9: in the country, to destroy Donald Trump's chances at winning. Now,

884
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 9: to your point, I don't think it is I think

885
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:13,920
Speaker 9: that this will sort of fade away, except at CNN,

886
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 9: at MSNBC, in the Washington Post, in New York Times.

887
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:20,959
Speaker 9: But look what you've got today, Kamala Harris with Liz

888
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 9: Cheney at an event in Wisconsin. What are they going

889
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:27,920
Speaker 9: to talk about? Not the issues that people of Wisconsin

890
00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 9: care about. They're going to talk about this fake threat

891
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 9: that Donald Trump poses to democracy, whatever that means, how

892
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:38,279
Speaker 9: we almost ended our country, as Joe Biden calls it,

893
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 9: we almost lost everything, Joe Biden says about January sixth,

894
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:44,959
Speaker 9: and that is what they will be talking about. That's

895
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:49,279
Speaker 9: all they've got. And so, but there's going to be

896
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:51,839
Speaker 9: more to come. This is only the first hit out

897
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 9: of this motion. There also will be an appendix that

898
00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:58,160
Speaker 9: will be unsealed in the next probably week or so

899
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 9: that will give more our witness testimony disclosing grand jury

900
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 9: testimony FBI three to O two. So they're going to

901
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:09,280
Speaker 9: keep piling on. Judge Chuckkin is going to allow Jacksmith

902
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:13,120
Speaker 9: to do this and really denying Donald Trump his due

903
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:16,680
Speaker 9: process rights. While this is an opening argument on paper,

904
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:20,640
Speaker 9: if it was at trial, Donald Trump would be allowed

905
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:24,360
Speaker 9: immediately to respond, cross examine witness, et cetera. None of

906
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:27,719
Speaker 9: that is happening now. It is not just election interference

907
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 9: another DOJ, just disparagement of the law of due process,

908
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:38,359
Speaker 9: the rule of law, and denial of constitutional protections that

909
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 9: we all have, including Donald Trump.

910
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:44,319
Speaker 4: Speaking of Julie Kelly declassified as her substack where she

911
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 4: does a lot of great work on this issue, Julie.

912
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 4: If Trump wins, I think we all know that this

913
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:57,280
Speaker 4: goes away as it should if for some reason Heaven forbid,

914
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:00,719
Speaker 4: but it could happen Kamala Harris becomes president. What do

915
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 4: you see as the future of the Jack Smith prosecution

916
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 4: based on what we now know the Supreme Court weighing

917
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:11,920
Speaker 4: in Jack Smith's dirty dossier. Is it really just about

918
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 4: the election and the politics and the election interference or

919
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:17,920
Speaker 4: do you really think that Jack Smith is going to

920
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 4: try to lock Donald Trump up if he loses.

921
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 9: I think he will still try. I know we've been

922
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:27,520
Speaker 9: talking about this for a few years since Jack Smith

923
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 9: was appointed now November of twenty twenty two. So if

924
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 9: Donald Trump loses, yes, they will continue the January sixth case.

925
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 9: It will never survive, as I said, the Supreme Court

926
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 9: where it will end up again because it will be

927
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 9: another immunity question. Will never survive and appeal on immunity

928
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 9: protections and the fissure ruling. So this indictment, now he

929
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 9: could bring superseding indictments, especially based on you know, some

930
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:57,359
Speaker 9: day that Donald Trump maybe did after this election. They're

931
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 9: going to keep piling on. I'll take this even a

932
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 9: step further. If Donald Trump wins, you can guarantee that

933
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:08,879
Speaker 9: Tanya Chuckkin will still hold some sort of hearing on

934
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:13,239
Speaker 9: this case in November or December, before Donald Trump is

935
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 9: sworn into office, some sort of hearing to keep this

936
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 9: matter alive until the very last minute, force Donald Trump

937
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:25,320
Speaker 9: and his lawyers back in her courtroom over this motion

938
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 9: or a few other motions that were still expecting. So

939
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 9: they are they're going to wait till the very last

940
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 9: minute if Donald Trump wins, to keep this hanging over

941
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 9: his head as this cloud that we saw the same

942
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:43,560
Speaker 9: thing in twenty sixteen with the made up Trump Russia

943
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:47,360
Speaker 9: election collusion hopes. Also, we still have what's happening in

944
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 9: Florida judging name Cannon in July dismissing that indictment based

945
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:54,279
Speaker 9: on her findings that Jack Smith was unconstitutionally appointed. That

946
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 9: also will get to the Supreme Court if Donald Trump loses,

947
00:51:58,600 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 9: it still will make its way to the Supreme Court,

948
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 9: and I'm pretty sure, based on comments that we saw

949
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:07,600
Speaker 9: from Justice Clarence Thomas and others, that the Supreme Court

950
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:12,239
Speaker 9: would eventually conclude that he his appointment violated the appointment's

951
00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:15,279
Speaker 9: clause of the Constitution. So there's still a lot more,

952
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:19,480
Speaker 9: you know, grist that Jack Smith can squeeze out of

953
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 9: this Donald Trump winning or losing. But they are not

954
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 9: going to give this up anytime soon, and will not

955
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 9: give it up easily regardless of the outcome of the election.

956
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:32,160
Speaker 3: Julie, do you get the sense that much of this

957
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:35,759
Speaker 3: law fair blew up in their face? They thought that

958
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:38,319
Speaker 3: My calculus on this, and I think Buck would sign off,

959
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:41,200
Speaker 3: is that they thought, oh, this will strengthen Trump with

960
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:46,000
Speaker 3: right wing voters, but it's going to be ultimately damning

961
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 3: for him in the general election. Instead, it seems to

962
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 3: have basically strengthened Trump across the board. And that's why

963
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 3: I'm a little bit surprised. This feels like such a hell, Mary,

964
00:52:57,000 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 3: And if anything, if you asked me to analy the

965
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:03,279
Speaker 3: politics of this, not the law, just the politics, because

966
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:05,279
Speaker 3: I think the law, as I've said, for some time

967
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 3: with you and on this show is total.

968
00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:08,840
Speaker 2: Bunk, right, It's just crap.

969
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:13,360
Speaker 3: But I think it actually works to Trump's favor that

970
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:16,360
Speaker 3: they try to dredge this back up once October comes up,

971
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:19,479
Speaker 3: because it shows that ultimately this isn't really anything other

972
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:22,280
Speaker 3: than a political move which benefits Trump.

973
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:28,399
Speaker 9: Right. I definitely agree that the law fare, whether it's

974
00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 9: from Jack Smith, whether it's in Georgia, from Fanny Willis,

975
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 9: whether it's what's happening in New York in those cases,

976
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:38,279
Speaker 9: has completely backfired, blew up in the face of the

977
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:42,480
Speaker 9: Democratic Party. I mean, look, you had Joe Biden bullied

978
00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 9: out of this race because Donald Trump was going to

979
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 9: beat him despite what Joe Biden and his White House

980
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 9: and his agencies and his General counsel we know in

981
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:57,399
Speaker 9: cahoots trying to concoct the classified Documents scheme. They had

982
00:53:57,600 --> 00:54:00,920
Speaker 9: all the levers of power, right, and they sent DOJ

983
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 9: prosecutors to Georgia, and they were working with the team

984
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:07,360
Speaker 9: in New York, and so all of this flew up

985
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 9: to the extent that Joe Biden had to pull out

986
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:11,279
Speaker 9: of the race because Trump was so was going to

987
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:13,719
Speaker 9: beat him so badly. So you would think that they

988
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:17,319
Speaker 9: would learn their lesson, but they really have not. And

989
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 9: again this is cover for the failed Biden Kamala Harris administration.

990
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:27,279
Speaker 9: These crises blowing up, not just in the country but

991
00:54:27,480 --> 00:54:30,399
Speaker 9: around the world, and this is all they can hang

992
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:33,800
Speaker 9: their hat on is JA six. So Jack Smith swoops

993
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:37,279
Speaker 9: in once again, gives them an assist, gives them this

994
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:40,880
Speaker 9: dirty dossier, and gives them more talking points to avoid

995
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:43,880
Speaker 9: discussing the real issues that Americans care about.

996
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:47,759
Speaker 4: Julie Kelly check out Declassified on substack. Julie, thanks for

997
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:48,239
Speaker 4: being here.

998
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:50,160
Speaker 9: Thanks guys,