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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's gone for.

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Speaker 3: The winds, all right. Here we go throwing among spect

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Speaker 3: We're saying it's a cash.

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Speaker 2: To see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to wind That's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate Kabaki.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybond. This is your NFL Week nine betting preview

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Speaker 2: with odds courtesy of bet MGM, the official odds provider

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Speaker 2: of the Action Network Podcast. I am joined, as always

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Speaker 2: by my Action Network colleague, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 2: one of the best betters I know. Stucky Stuck's going.

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Speaker 3: On not much Fresh off a losing NFL week, I'm

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Speaker 3: rolling everywhere else I did. I just glad we got

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Speaker 3: out of October. I mean, I had my best month

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Speaker 3: ever I've been in NFL for fifteen years. From a

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Speaker 3: closing pind value perspective, I greted almost no bets as

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Speaker 3: bad bets. I mean, I had the Chiefs against the Titans,

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Speaker 3: A couple Eagles bets, that's it. I mean last weekend

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Speaker 3: I just needed one of Minnesota plus two and a half,

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Speaker 3: which closed minus four and a half to cover, or

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Speaker 3: the Colts in overtime and neither got there. I mean

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Speaker 3: the Colts game in overtime. I mean, I don't know

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Speaker 3: how many overtime games I can lose this year on

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Speaker 3: our six pack alone. I've gone zero to four and

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Speaker 3: overtime over the past month. And again that game. That

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Speaker 3: game was plus one closed minus three. But that game

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Speaker 3: flipped on a play that I've never seen happen before

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Speaker 3: in the NFL, where fourteen to seven Colts pick off

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Speaker 3: the Titans are running it back in the Titans territory.

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Speaker 3: Guy tears his ACL he's out for the year, so

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Speaker 3: he drops the ball. Titans recover. That was on third

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Speaker 3: and long, so they recovered, so they get a not

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Speaker 3: only is it not a pick, not only is it

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Speaker 3: not a punt, it's a first down. The next play

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Speaker 3: busted play touchdown. So that was a brutal swig. But

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Speaker 3: you'll have a month with that does go for you.

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Speaker 3: I just really want to win an overtime game, but

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Speaker 3: who cares. Let's move on to weekne and find some winners.

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Speaker 2: Let's get into the Thursday night football matchup. But before

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Speaker 2: we do a couple of quick reminders. First, if you

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Speaker 2: plan to bet on any spot ever and you still

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Speaker 2: have not downloaded the free award winning Action Network app,

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Speaker 2: what are you doing. It's got betting tools, it lets

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Speaker 2: you shop for the best lines, it's got analysis from myself, Lucky,

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Speaker 2: the whole Action Network team, and most importantly, it lets

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Speaker 2: you track every bet that you make. Second, if you

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Speaker 2: need to reference our Sunday six Pack picks anytime, all

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Speaker 2: you have to do is use the Action Network app

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Speaker 2: and follow Sunday six Pack because we use that account

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Speaker 2: to track those picks every Friday. And finally, we ask

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Speaker 2: for podcasts reviews. You guys through for us in a

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Speaker 2: big way. Really appreciate you guys, so thank you. We

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Speaker 2: have four winners for some free Action Network swag. You

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Speaker 2: guys can email podcasts at Actionnetwork dot com to claim

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Speaker 2: your prizes and I'll read the names out now. It's

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Speaker 2: John Mitch four. Thank you, John Mitch, Sam Daddy, Thanks

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Speaker 2: Sam Daddy, Thanks to at Joel Brandow and then last

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Speaker 2: but not we thank you to MCB two fifteen. You

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Speaker 2: guys can again email Podcasts at Actionnetwork dot com to

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Speaker 2: claim your prize and thanks again to everybody who's been

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Speaker 2: leaving us the reviews, please keep keep it up. Really

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Speaker 2: helps us out. But without further ado, let's get into

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Speaker 2: our Thursday Night football matchup for week number nine.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 2: So we have the New York Jets fresh off your

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Speaker 2: boy your boy White like you're literal boy who you

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Speaker 2: talked up on the pod and picked the Jets, who

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Speaker 2: not only covered but won the game out right, going

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Speaker 2: up now against the Indianapolis Colts. Colts are ten and

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Speaker 2: a half point favorites at bet MGN. The total is

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Speaker 2: forty six and a half. My initial thoughts on this game,

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Speaker 2: I think the number is still too high for the Colts.

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Speaker 2: You know, not gonna expect the Jets to do what

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Speaker 2: they did every week. It was an obvious flat spot

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Speaker 2: for since he as you pointed out last week. I

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Speaker 2: still think the number is a little bit too high.

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Speaker 2: We do know Thursday Night favorites ten to have success though,

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Speaker 2: and I also think the total is a little too high.

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Speaker 2: But what are your thoughts on this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Mike White came through in a big white last

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Speaker 3: week by the way. I didn't get a chance to say,

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Speaker 3: you swept the Sunday six back end, you had a

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Speaker 3: couple bad overtime beats as well. Yeah, we're still I

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Speaker 3: think fifty seven and a half percent on the season

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Speaker 3: for every pick of it out. I mentioned last week

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Speaker 3: that I was thinking about going with the Jets on

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Speaker 3: the money line pilot.

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Speaker 2: Oh my god, we almost hit another one. Oh I know, Hey,

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Speaker 2: we're still like I think we're like five hundred or

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Speaker 2: something like that, because I think I'm five of eight

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Speaker 2: in your four of eight or or that, or we're

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Speaker 2: both five of eight, but either way, we're like above

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Speaker 2: five hundred straight up, I think in moneyline dogs, which

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Speaker 2: which is obviously super profitable. And you know, it's funny

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Speaker 2: speaking of Thursday night before we get into this matchup,

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Speaker 2: just as a little tangent, since you know how you

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Speaker 2: always want, you know, try to stay away from Thursday

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Speaker 2: night football, so you gotta do things to kind of

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Speaker 2: make it interesting. Last weekend, the only action I ended

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Speaker 2: up having on that Thursday night game the Packers Cardinals

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Speaker 2: with this Marceides Lewis under because I was like, we're

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Speaker 2: never getting a higher Marceides Lewis under it was like

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Speaker 2: eighteen and a half or something because Davante was out,

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Speaker 2: so I decided to go to a bar. We end

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Speaker 2: up sitting at the bar to eat instead of you know,

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Speaker 2: sitting at like a booth. And so I'm trying to

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Speaker 2: watch this game. I'm trying to like make sure Marceides

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Speaker 2: Lewis isn't on the field, and it's just drunk guy

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Speaker 2: just keeps talking to me, you know, about different shit.

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Speaker 2: And then come to find out he's the like original

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Speaker 2: lead singer of Motley Crue that got kicked out of

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Speaker 2: Motley Crue because like the rest of the band didn't

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Speaker 2: like him and they thought he was too much of

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Speaker 2: a hippie. And he kept like pointing this out, and

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Speaker 2: like he showed me like all these Google articles about him,

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Speaker 2: and then like I just I was like I had

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Speaker 2: to like clarify with the bartender. I'm like, is that

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Speaker 2: really him? Because it was kind of like one of

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Speaker 2: these like neighborhood bars. She's like, no, it is really him, so,

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Speaker 2: you know, shouts to him. But that was funny. I

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Speaker 2: was just like trying to watch his Mercedes Lewis like

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Speaker 2: looking for eighty nine on the field, and this guy,

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Speaker 2: this guy from Motley Crue the original Keeps Keeps interrupted me.

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Speaker 2: So so that was fun.

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Speaker 3: I had a friend, and that's amazing, by the way,

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Speaker 3: I had a friend of town. We went to the

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Speaker 3: bar for to watch the World Series and then the

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Speaker 3: Southern Night football game, and I was obviously sitting there

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Speaker 3: with a locksley. I teased the biking sit but Vikings

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Speaker 3: plus two and a half was.

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Speaker 2: I thought was a lock which should have been like

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Speaker 2: six points of clothing wine value or something like that.

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Speaker 3: Seven But who's counting. I couldn't stop Cooper Rush. But

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Speaker 3: at the end of the game. But I was watching

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Speaker 3: the game, and I'm sitting there with my friend, and

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Speaker 3: there's a every vetteror will not have this feeling that

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Speaker 3: I'm about to explain I'm not a yeller or anything

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Speaker 3: like that. There's a Cowboys fan in like a Cowboys jacket,

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Speaker 3: Cowboys jersey, Cowboys hat that's like sitting midway through the

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Speaker 3: bar so and he's not saying any of the whole

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Speaker 3: game because they trailed the entire game until the last

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Speaker 3: thirty seconds and then the Cowboys took the lead and

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Speaker 3: he is just going woooo woo. And I'm sitting there

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Speaker 3: with like a ticket that just lost in horrific fashion,

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Speaker 3: and I was like, I'm going outside, I'm gonna go

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Speaker 3: have a cigarette and I'm calling in Uber. There's nothing

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Speaker 3: worse than that field. His Jets game, though, Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 3: I think there's a tad hi Mike White nation. We'll

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Speaker 3: see how he plays in the follow up game to

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Speaker 3: what he did last week. The Jets. Look, the Bengals

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Speaker 3: never adjusted. There was a lot of short passes, a

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Speaker 3: lot of passes in the flats, Like you can do

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Speaker 3: a little bit of that against the Colts. But what

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Speaker 3: the Jets have been doing on defense. You look at

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Speaker 3: their defense and you say, how's this def's doing anything right? Like,

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Speaker 3: if you look at their secondary, it's just a hodgepot

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Speaker 3: JUnit of names that you should be getting stopped. But

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Speaker 3: their defensive line is playing really well. You know, if

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Speaker 3: you look at Williams and rankings and Photocosi and huff,

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Speaker 3: Like if you look at past block win rates and

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Speaker 3: run block win rights, they're all near the top in

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Speaker 3: the top ten. So the defensive line is doing lot,

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Speaker 3: but that could be neutralized here by the Colts offensive line.

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Speaker 3: I believe Quentin Nelson's gonna play is questionable, so it's

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Speaker 3: hard for me to see the Jets getting many stops here.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a tad hide, but it's an awful spot,

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Speaker 3: like you just beat the Bengals. As you know, it's

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Speaker 3: basically like your super Bowl the year you're not going

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Speaker 3: to where a short week on the road. As long

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Speaker 3: as I think the Colts show up, they should win

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Speaker 3: this game. I make this around like eight or nine

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Speaker 3: is a little bit of value in the Jets, but

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Speaker 3: it's not a game I'm rushing to bet. Again, I

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Speaker 3: have to really love a Thursday night game to get involved.

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Speaker 3: So for me, this is a peer pass.

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Speaker 2: Yeah I have it eight and a half, but I

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Speaker 2: do know that you know, and it's tough to adjust

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Speaker 2: for this because again, you know, Fate. We don't like

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Speaker 2: betting on big favorites anyway, but you know, we've talked

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Speaker 2: about this. Thursday Night favorites, you know, tend to tend

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Speaker 2: to hit at about sixty percent rate, So it's especially

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Speaker 2: when they're favored by a touchdown or more the percentage

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Speaker 2: goes up a couple of points. But this is just

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Speaker 2: too many points for me. I think this Jets team

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Speaker 2: is gonna it's like a high variance team, like you

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Speaker 2: don't know what you're gonna get sometimes from week to week.

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Speaker 2: And then the Colts, I mean, I just they should

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Speaker 2: be better, like then they they should be better than

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Speaker 2: their record, or you know, essentially you know what I mean,

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Speaker 2: like they should be better than their record. Yeah, exactly so.

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Speaker 2: But at the same time, you know, you mentioned the

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Speaker 2: Jets defense, it's playing well. Both of these teams are

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Speaker 2: coming off games where they just put up thirty and

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Speaker 2: their opponent put up thirty. I think we could see

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Speaker 2: some regression in just one of those ugly, ugly Thursday night,

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Speaker 2: especially first half. The Jets are twenty sixth and first

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Speaker 2: half paced, Coats are twenty third. The Colts area also

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Speaker 2: thirty first in situation neutral pace and the Jets are

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Speaker 2: twenty six So this could just be a slow paced

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Speaker 2: game where you know, maybe you know, Ty Johnson doesn't

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Speaker 2: do a brilliant toe tap and get to the end

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Speaker 2: zone and all these different things that you know went

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Speaker 2: right for the Jets on offense last week and for

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Speaker 2: the Colts. So I'm thinking about maybe a first half

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Speaker 2: under because I just don't want any part of like

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Speaker 2: Carson Wentz and Mike White in the second half, you know,

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Speaker 2: turnover wise, but I think I might I might jump

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Speaker 2: on a first half under. Just kind of played to

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Speaker 2: that ugly Thursday night game in some regression because I

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Speaker 2: think we're getting like a extra point point and a

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Speaker 2: half on this total just because of this, those high

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Speaker 2: scoring games for both teams last week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, total hate it.

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Speaker 2: All right, Uh, that's gonna do it for our Thursday

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Speaker 2: night football breakdown. Let's get into our week nine Sunday

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Speaker 2: six pack presented by our friends at the Athletic Brewing Company.

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Speaker 1: There's steeper. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, stuck, As you mentioned, good week for me. In

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Speaker 2: the six pack, you caught some bad beats, but felt

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Speaker 2: good to sweep after going over the prior week, and

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Speaker 2: felt good to cover with Sam Darnold after weighing points

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Speaker 2: with him on the road the week before. So we're

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Speaker 2: on to the next twenty six twenty three. I'm up,

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Speaker 2: and you got first pick? Where you go?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, my first pick of the Sunday six pack for

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Speaker 3: Week nine is the San Francisco forty nine ers minus

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Speaker 3: one at bet MGM. I love this pick. I love

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Speaker 3: this pick. I've been waiting for this bet ever since.

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Speaker 3: You know I talked about my October I had a

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Speaker 3: bunch of dogs that like, we're the better team that

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Speaker 3: didn't cover is like big numbers. This was one of them,

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Speaker 3: and I watched that entire San Francisco Arizona game. Arizon

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Speaker 3: ed up winning by seven. Thanks you know, they were

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Speaker 3: out gained five point seven to five point one yards

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Speaker 3: per play. They were out gained overall forty nine one

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Speaker 3: five on fourth down, and were stopped at fourth and

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Speaker 3: goal at the one by about an inch, and they

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Speaker 3: just couldn't overturn it. They kept Murray in check. They

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Speaker 3: ended up losing by seven with a ton of injuries

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Speaker 3: in a game where Trey Lance had to make his

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Speaker 3: first career start, and they should have won. They were

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Speaker 3: the better team. I could not wait to get the

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Speaker 3: San Francisco team on the comeback when they these two

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Speaker 3: teams met again, which is this weekend now. I mean

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Speaker 3: before the year, I had the San Francisco significantly better

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Speaker 3: than Arizona. I've obviously bumped Arizona up, bumped San Francisco

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Speaker 3: down some, but still made this game around a coin flip.

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Speaker 3: Before all of the news that has come out recently.

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Speaker 3: Now I make San Francisco close to a field goal.

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Speaker 3: Favorite would lay up to a field goal in this game,

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Speaker 3: just because of some of the matchups, the situation, all

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Speaker 3: the uncertainty around Kyler Murray's injury. I don't I actually

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Speaker 3: think there's a chance he does play. You know, they're

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Speaker 3: they're seven and one. Why risk longer term injury here?

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Speaker 3: Try and nip it in the bud. The same thing

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Speaker 3: with Dandre Hopkins. He always plays like he just what

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Speaker 3: is that Aj Green quote? He's a cop, always plays,

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Speaker 3: doesn't matter, doesn't practice. But it's still a hamstring. It

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Speaker 3: can just pop up at any time, as it did

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Speaker 3: in that game against the Packers, so that step can

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Speaker 3: still linger. AJ Green also just one of the COVID

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Speaker 3: this five minutes ago. So this offense decimated, And I

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Speaker 3: just Kyler Murray even if he does play. If he

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Speaker 3: doesn't play, it's a huge drop off obviously to Colt McCoy.

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Speaker 3: But even if he does play, he has a serious

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Speaker 3: ankle injuries in a boot. Kyler Murray not being able

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Speaker 3: to be mobile is a completely different Kyler Murray, and

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Speaker 3: this is a completely different offense. I mean, his mobility

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Speaker 3: is one of the things that makes this offense go.

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Speaker 3: The forty nine ers already in the past, you look

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Speaker 3: at their past matchups, know how to kind of keep

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Speaker 3: him in check. You know you're getting d Ford back,

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Speaker 3: You're getting a couple pieces back. Your corners are as

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Speaker 3: healthy as they've been in a while. Got some injuries

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Speaker 3: in safety, but the forty nine ers know how to

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Speaker 3: contain this Arizona offense. And now you're dealing with all

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Speaker 3: these injuries on the other side of the ball. San

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Speaker 3: Francisco's offensive line now fully healthy. George Kittle should be back.

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Speaker 3: George Kittle being back doesn't just help in the pass

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Speaker 3: catching game. It helps in the running game too. It's

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Speaker 3: one of the best run blocking tight ends in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: You have a bunch of backs now that are healthy.

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Speaker 3: You can attack this Arizona run defense, which is twenty

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Speaker 3: second in success for eight they're giving up four point

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Speaker 3: nine yards per rush. That's second worst than the NFL.

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Speaker 3: And now you don't have JJ Watt, who was one

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Speaker 3: of their best run defenders on the defensive line. Cardinals

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Speaker 3: huge third down regression coming. A lot of third dimgressions

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Speaker 3: are coming on the defensive side of the ball. Negative

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Speaker 3: point five eight nine EPA per play on late downs,

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Speaker 3: thirty percent success rate on fourth downs. We talked about

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Speaker 3: that Chargers fourth down progression coming on the offensive end

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Speaker 3: the Cardinals. We saw it with this forty nine d

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Speaker 3: seen went one to five on fourth and shorts in

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Speaker 3: that game. That's coming here. I think that this is

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Speaker 3: the time that we start. We're about to start to

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Speaker 3: see the forty nine ers that we were expecting the

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Speaker 3: beginning of the year. You know, they went on the

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Speaker 3: road and they got that win against the Bears. They're

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Speaker 3: starting to get healthier. I think they're gonna come back.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna beat the Cardinals here, They're gonna beat the

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Speaker 3: Rams next week. Making that call now, and you're gonna

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Speaker 3: have this this really competitive division that we expected. So

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Speaker 3: this is a great spot to get the forty nine

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Speaker 3: ers before all the injuries. Now you're throwing all the

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Speaker 3: injuries on Arizona side. I love it even more. Give

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Speaker 3: me the forty nine ers. Anythink up to a field goal?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they're minus one at bet MGM. This mine opened.

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Speaker 2: I think it was plus two and a half or

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Speaker 2: plus three. So hopefully you get some good luck this

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Speaker 2: week after you got all the closing line value last

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Speaker 2: week and the Vikings just choked that game away. I mean,

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Speaker 2: that was that was horrible. But I agree. I think

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Speaker 2: the forty nine ers this is always a spot right

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Speaker 2: that you want to back to forty nine ers. Kyle

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Speaker 2: Shanahan as an underdog. As a favorite, he covers like

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Speaker 2: forty percent of the time. It's an underdog he covers

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Speaker 2: like sixty percent of the time. You know, it's this

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Speaker 2: is It's one of those things. It's kind of like

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Speaker 2: the Daniel Jones home road splits almost you know, it's

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Speaker 2: just Kyle Shanahan in these spots. This is when he

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Speaker 2: could do what he could do. I know now they're

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Speaker 2: fight favorite, but yeah, we'll go.

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Speaker 3: With the money on here since that's minus one ten.

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Speaker 3: I agree, you shout ahead. You don't want to vcuum.

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Speaker 3: It's like a favorite, and we would say favorite like

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Speaker 3: over a field goal. He's been hard in that spot.

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Speaker 3: But I think that this is just a perfect spot

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Speaker 3: to get the forty nine ers. It's a great matchup

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Speaker 3: for them. We saw it when they were less healthy

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Speaker 3: and the Cardinals were healthier on the road, and again

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Speaker 3: they were the better team. Now you know, the roles

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Speaker 3: are reverse you're at home here, and again it's four

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Speaker 3: year season. The Cardinals are sitting pretty that might influence

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Speaker 3: some injury, you know, might influence them to sit Kyler Murray.

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Speaker 3: Then all of a sudden, you're gonna see this line

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Speaker 3: rise to you know, said friend San Francis, go out

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Speaker 3: to six.

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Speaker 2: If Kyler is ruled out, would you still take it

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Speaker 2: to a field goal or would you take it past that?

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Speaker 3: I would take it up to two and a half

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Speaker 3: if Kyler. Even if Kyler is playing, I'm assuming that

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Speaker 3: he's not going to be a hundred percent That's why.

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Speaker 3: So that assumption is not going to change. If Kyler

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Speaker 3: Murray doesn't play, I would play. I think it gets ugly.

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Speaker 3: I would play it forty nine ers up too minus

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Speaker 3: five and a half if Murray doesn't play, And even

353
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Speaker 3: if Murray does play, I think this might be a blowout.

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Speaker 3: This is just a beautiful spot for the forty nine

355
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Speaker 3: ers at all of the health issues for the Cardinals,

356
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Speaker 3: that's really just gonna limit their offense and some regression

357
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Speaker 3: coming on defensive. It's just not a great matchup for

358
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Speaker 3: their defense.

359
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Speaker 2: And with aj Green going on the COVID list, I mean,

360
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Speaker 2: we've seen this before you know, he's in the receiver

361
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Speaker 2: room with DeAndre Hopkins. Yeah, Ron Daille, Moore, Christian Kirk

362
00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 2: the keys to their offense. Whether Kyler Murray is healthy

363
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 2: or on the bench, they become even more important. So

364
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Speaker 2: if any of those guys is a close contact, I mean,

365
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Speaker 2: you know, as you mentioned, this is happening as we're recording,

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Speaker 2: So I don't know, you know, I don't think we

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Speaker 2: have enough details to speculate, but you know, that's just

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Speaker 2: something to point out that if you take this line

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Speaker 2: here at minus one, I think there's a really good

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Speaker 2: chance that you're getting closing line value on these.

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Speaker 3: Realistically, this like to close San Francisco minus ten ish.

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Speaker 3: If let's just talk about the worst case scenario, the

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Speaker 3: whole the receiver room gets COVID. You have like Hopkins,

374
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Speaker 3: Green's already on the list, like more out. So then

375
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Speaker 3: Arizona says, all right, our receivers are out of quarterbacks

376
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Speaker 3: kind of banged up. We're sitting Murray. Why risk him here?

377
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Speaker 3: So now you have Colt McCoy and a poverty wide

378
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:16,440
Speaker 3: receiver group. I mean, this line is gonna go pretty crazy. Yeah,

379
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,159
Speaker 3: we wouldn't get the ten, but they would get to

380
00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:19,000
Speaker 3: like a touchdown.

381
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,639
Speaker 2: What do you the Cardinals have on their practice squad.

382
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,399
Speaker 3: Greg Dortch is gonna be bullet the line by a touchdown.

383
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:26,639
Speaker 3: I think he's on the practice squad.

384
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Speaker 1: The most electrifying player in college football.

385
00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:33,639
Speaker 2: Guess who Greg Torch.

386
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:36,879
Speaker 3: He's got Torch wide open Torch.

387
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Speaker 1: An individual up for Greg Derch, Greg Dorch.

388
00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:47,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have Greg Dorch, Andre Basilia. Those are those?

389
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:49,919
Speaker 2: Look like the two wide receivers on the practice squad

390
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,119
Speaker 2: and they probably use like some Chase Chase Edmunds in

391
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 2: the slot or something like that. And we have to

392
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,960
Speaker 2: call it Frozgerald with Colt McCoy throwing on the ball.

393
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Speaker 2: All right, Yeah no, I like this one more likely

394
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Speaker 2: than not get some good closing line value. Here for

395
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Speaker 2: my first pick in the Week nine Sunday six pack

396
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Speaker 2: and the second overall pick, I am going with the

397
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Speaker 2: Atlanta Falcons plus six at the New Orleans Saints. It

398
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,000
Speaker 2: is time to get ugly. We're going to start early

399
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 2: with an ugly Falcons team that could not move the

400
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,359
Speaker 2: ball on the Panthers last week. Loved this spot for

401
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 2: the Falcons. First of all, we don't even know what

402
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 2: the Saints quarterback is going to be we're giving him

403
00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,879
Speaker 2: six points at home. Second of all, this is a

404
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 2: major wet down spot for the Saints. And remember I

405
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,120
Speaker 2: picked them all the money. They were my moneyline dog

406
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 2: pick last week to upset the world champion of Tampa

407
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Speaker 2: Bay Bucks. They did it. Now I'm picking against them

408
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,760
Speaker 2: here at home against the Falcons. You look at Sean

409
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:49,719
Speaker 2: Payton since twenty fourteen, is a home favorite twenty two,

410
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:51,920
Speaker 2: thirty two and one against the spread just forty one

411
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:57,240
Speaker 2: percent and struggles even more coming off some of these wins. Actually,

412
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Speaker 2: they beat Tampa Bay early in the year. Last year,

413
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Speaker 2: they come out next week and lose to Vegas in

414
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Speaker 2: that first matchup thirty four to twenty four. The next

415
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,359
Speaker 2: week is a favorite. So this New Orleans team, we

416
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,160
Speaker 2: look how they played against Seattle. Gino Smith is that quarterback.

417
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 2: I think they closed like minus five, minus five and

418
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:13,880
Speaker 2: a half something like that, and then they win by three.

419
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Speaker 2: It was a tough game. You know. The other spot

420
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Speaker 2: where they were a favorite against what was it Carolina? Yeah,

421
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Speaker 2: they were favored against Carolina and they get blown out

422
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Speaker 2: like they're zero to two. Is a favorite by more

423
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:27,479
Speaker 2: than a field goal.

424
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Speaker 3: This year and that was the week after they blew

425
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Speaker 3: out the Packers.

426
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Speaker 2: Right yeah, So classic letdown spot for the Saints. And

427
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Speaker 2: I'll give them credit. They had They did have a

428
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 2: game where they blew out the Bucks the second time

429
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:38,399
Speaker 2: last year, and then they came back in one. I

430
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 2: think it was twenty seven thirteen against the Niners. But

431
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 2: I think we were both on the Niners in that game,

432
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 2: and the Niners had that game, had the cover at

433
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 2: least and that I think they turned it over in

434
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 2: the in the like two or.

435
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 3: Three times and then punt said two mo punt.

436
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 2: So if you're just looking at these spots for the Saints,

437
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 2: you know, even at Niners game, I know it's on

438
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:01,360
Speaker 2: the scoreboard, it's fourteen point game, but just another game

439
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 2: where I kind of chalk it up and say, Okay,

440
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:04,880
Speaker 2: the Niners were the right side to have in this one.

441
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,159
Speaker 2: More often than not, you're gonna win betting against the

442
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 2: Saints in these spots. This is just a you know,

443
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 2: the Falcons, listen, this is not a bet on the Falcons, Calvin.

444
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 2: But I think the market is overreacting to Calvin Ridley

445
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 2: being out to them struggling in against the Panthers, which

446
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 2: it was kind of predictable coming off this just cake

447
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 2: slate of games against you know, pointing the Dolphins and

448
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 2: the Jaguars or the Jets, I mean the Giants. You know,

449
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 2: it was just a cake slate of matchups. They had

450
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 2: a reality check. Now they're gonna come back. I think

451
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,399
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a close matchup because I mean, you

452
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 2: look at the Saints. They beat the Seahawks with Gino

453
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 2: Smith by three. I mean, are the Falcons you know

454
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 2: you got Matt Ryan, Cornell Patterson, and Kyle Pitts. Like

455
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 2: is that really Like Matt Ryan's better than Geno Smith,

456
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 2: Metcalf and Locket are better than Patterson and Pitts. But

457
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 2: like the point is, this is just gonna be a ugly,

458
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 2: probably low scoring game where the points are more important.

459
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 2: A total has dropped to like forty one and half,

460
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:02,400
Speaker 2: it may go to forty one by the time you're

461
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 2: with it into this, so you know, every point is

462
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 2: more valuable betting against Sean Payton is a home favorite

463
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 2: who's covering just forty one percent of the time with

464
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 2: the Atlanta Falcons plus six.

465
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, by the way, I mean, I this was gonna

466
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 3: be one of my picks and the way that we

467
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 3: do this week just on slack. We we do this

468
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 3: via snake draft. So I'll, you know, each week one

469
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,400
Speaker 3: of us is first, and next week the other person's first'

470
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:29,399
Speaker 3: you know, I'll take a pick, then Chryst will take

471
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 3: a pick. Blah blah blah. So this week I had

472
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, but then Rodgers was announced out and then

473
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:36,479
Speaker 3: he had the falcons. I would have taken the falcons,

474
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 3: but I have a nice guy, so let them have

475
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 3: the falcons. So I agree.

476
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 2: Hey, I early, you saw that, right, I pinged you like.

477
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know what time it was Eastern,

478
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 2: but I know it was like the middle of the

479
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:47,919
Speaker 2: night for me. So I got that in there. So

480
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 2: I appreciate you had me stick with him. Yeah, but

481
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 2: this is so I cually agree. Yeah, some more trends

482
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 2: out there. Peyton thirty eight forty seven against the spread.

483
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 2: As a favorite of six or more points, it's forty

484
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 2: four percent, two twenty five and two sixty three percent

485
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 2: as a dog like he's a he's a god as

486
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 2: an underdog.

487
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 3: But this is when you want to fade him. It's

488
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 3: a high hurdle to climb with a total so low

489
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 3: and a team that's just very conservative. The Saints team,

490
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 3: that's just I want to back them as dogs, don't

491
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 3: want to back them his favorites. You know, they rely

492
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 3: on their defense, very conservative offense. I've seen a little.

493
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 3: You know, there are some positive things about this Falcons

494
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 3: offense over the past few weeks. Last week, notwithstanding, there

495
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 3: was just way too much pressure. The Saints aren't getting

496
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 3: elite pressure. But yeah, I mean, ultimately it's just an

497
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 3: awful spot. I think with the quarterback uncertainty, this line

498
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 3: should be like closer to four. So I played this

499
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 3: as well at plus six. By the way, Calvin Ridley,

500
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 3: he stepped away from the game, OBJ is gonna get caught,

501
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 3: Von Miller to the Rams, Jameis Winston out for the year,

502
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:50,879
Speaker 3: Rogers COVID, you know, Michael Thomas out for the year, Rugs, rugs,

503
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 3: rug Kyler, Murray, Derrick Henry out, Tyrod Taylor is starting,

504
00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 3: Mike White.

505
00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 2: Nay.

506
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 3: I mean, this is the craziest week of NFL news

507
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 3: I've ever seen them all life. So but yeah, I

508
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 3: agree here it's Falcons all the way. There's some value

509
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 3: in this number, as I expected to see after that

510
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,879
Speaker 3: win over the Bucks last week. If I'd guess, I

511
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 3: guess this game is Saints win by three, like twenty

512
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 3: to seventeen. It is probably the most likely outcome of

513
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 3: this game.

514
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 2: It's it's gonna be Trevor Simeon or Taysom Hill against

515
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 2: you know, the Falcons. So yeah, all.

516
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,360
Speaker 3: Right for my second pick of the Sunday six back

517
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 3: in the third overall, I'm going with the Carolina Panthers

518
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 3: plus three and a half at bet MGM at home

519
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 3: against the New England Patriots. All right, So when you

520
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 3: look at this game, we backed the Panthers a couple

521
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 3: of times this year, and I think we've we've nailed

522
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 3: the Panthers every game.

523
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 2: Except that when I met on Garno that on the road.

524
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,719
Speaker 3: I remember, oh yeah, he was the one mistake.

525
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,360
Speaker 2: I got my hat Cam Newton jersey on some kind

526
00:24:58,400 --> 00:24:59,479
Speaker 2: of you know, a tone for it.

527
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:01,640
Speaker 3: You had, yes, a new Ton for it last week,

528
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 3: and you had you know prior. But we played the

529
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 3: Panthers as underdogs, not his favorites. And I think if

530
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 3: this line is inflated after what we saw the Patriots

531
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 3: do last week against the Chargers in a pretty impressive win.

532
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 3: They had some some turnover lock. But it's a Chargers

533
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 3: defense that's just not really impressive to me. And you

534
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 3: know the Patriots on the West coast now coming from

535
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,640
Speaker 3: across the country for another road game. All of a sudden,

536
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 3: they're laying three and a half four. I think you

537
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 3: can find a four out there, which I took. Why

538
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 3: So the question is why? I mean this look aheadline

539
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 3: was like a pick one. Well, you have the Patriots

540
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 3: with a really good performance last week. The Panthers also won,

541
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 3: by the way, But then there's there's questions about so

542
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 3: you get a bump in the market with the Patriots.

543
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 3: Then there's questions about Sam Darnold's availability. Who cares? I mean,

544
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,439
Speaker 3: this is the same thing about last week when you

545
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,680
Speaker 3: told me that Zach Wilson is out, and this line

546
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 3: moves six points because Mike White af reigning AFC Player

547
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 3: of the Week, with Mike White was going to be

548
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 3: the starting quarterback. Who cares? Sam Donald has been objectively

549
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 3: one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this year. Yeah, yeah,

550
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 3: that's his Texans game. He's been dreadful And do you

551
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 3: want to back and I'm assuming he's not gonna play here.

552
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 3: If he plays I'm they're just I'm not even dropping

553
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 3: the Panthers much going from Donald to PJ. Walker, and

554
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 3: I hope PJ. Walker plays. I'll tell you why his

555
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 3: legs can be an asset here, and especially against a

556
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 3: group of you know, mobile quarterbacks have given Bill belichick

557
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 3: defenses some issues in the past. They have a really

558
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 3: slow and athletic group of linebackers, so I think PJ.

559
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 3: Walker can have some success using his legs. Two. This

560
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 3: line has gone up because Donald's acnaville. Who wants to

561
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 3: bet on Sam Donald against a Bill Belichick defense seeing ghosts.

562
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 3: I mean, we've seen how that plays out before. That

563
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 3: does not end well. You might as well have me

564
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 3: back there trying to throw the ball, So I don't

565
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 3: I'm reading the te leads here. I don't think Darnold's

566
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 3: playing fine with that fine with the line going to four.

567
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 3: As a result, I still make it around just under two.

568
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 3: I don't think that there's not much of a drop off,

569
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 3: and the argument could be made, and I'm making it

570
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:20,679
Speaker 3: that I'd rather have PJ. Walker in there for this

571
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 3: particular game. I mean, I do not need some sent

572
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 3: I don't know how many kicks Sam Darna will throw

573
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 3: this time. So yeah, I mean Christian McCaffrey could be

574
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 3: back as well. But you know, I like this Panthers

575
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 3: defense now for this particular matchup. Their front seven's always

576
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 3: been formidable against the run. There's six and EPA for

577
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 3: USh six six and rushing success rate ninth. In line

578
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 3: yards they're number one and adjusted sacerate mac Jones has

579
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 3: three big time throws and six turnover worthy ones under

580
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,719
Speaker 3: pressure only five and a half yards per attempt under pressure.

581
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 3: That's twenty fourth fourth and turnover worthy throw percentage under

582
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 3: pressure when he's kept clean, he's been sparkling. The Panthers

583
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 3: are getting a ton of pressure right now, Burns and

584
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 3: Reddick a being to amazing. So this is a team

585
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 3: that's getting a ton of pressure and Jones just still rookie.

586
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 3: Watched him last week whenever the Chargers were able to

587
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 3: get pressure over throwing balls, he made some turnover worthy throws.

588
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 3: I think that's going to catch up to him here

589
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 3: with a defense the pass seat that's sound much more

590
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 3: formal with Stefan Gilmour in there, who I like him

591
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 3: in this scheme. He really solves that big hole that

592
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 3: the Panthers had of like who's their second corner, which

593
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 3: was a major question. Shaq Thompson's back at linebacker. So again,

594
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 3: this is a very low total. What's this down to?

595
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 3: Forty one? And yeah, and you're giving me four points

596
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 3: with the home team because I think that this is

597
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 3: an artist This is a move in the market based

598
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 3: on an assumed perceived quarterback downgrade, and I don't necessarily

599
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 3: think that's the case in this particular matchup. So give

600
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 3: me Carolina Panthers and McCaffrey plays. It'll be huge just

601
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 3: for some like dumb downs and screens and things of

602
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 3: that nature. But the Patriots can be run on a

603
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 3: little bit, so not only PJ. Walker, but if it

604
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 3: has to be the Tuba missile crisis Hubbard running the ball,

605
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 3: I think that they can have some success moving the ball.

606
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 3: But I think it's just an ugly game, sort of

607
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 3: like the Saints Falcons. Probably comes down to a field goal.

608
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 3: I'll take the home dog here that I show value in.

609
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 2: You know, if I didn't love this total so much,

610
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 2: because I think I've talked about this am I try

611
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 2: not to bet two different things in the same game anymore,

612
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 2: just because like I just don't enjoy it. It's just

613
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 2: like more of a personal preference. I love the total

614
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 2: as well. We'll get to that, you know, spoiler alert,

615
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 2: I like an ugly under but I totally agree. I

616
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 2: mean I was even saying coming into last week, and

617
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 2: you know why I picked the Panters. No one understood

618
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 2: why I was picking the pants. They were on the

619
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 2: worst streak of their life. The Falcons are humming on offense.

620
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 2: I'm looking at their cornerback groups. You have Dante Jackson,

621
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 2: you had, you have in the slot, you had Keith Taylor.

622
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 2: All of those guys are top fifty in Pro Football

623
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 2: focuses grades. Stefan Gilmore then gets acquired and he gets

624
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 2: activated if you ignore the snap minimums because obviously Gilmore

625
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 2: only played one game. He's the hot highest rated cornerback

626
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 2: in the NFL. They have four cornerbacks that are legit

627
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 2: like top twenty five percentile cornerbacks or at least playing

628
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 2: like it, because the rookie Keith Taylor is playing really

629
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 2: well and Bouyet has kind of had somewhat of a

630
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 2: renaissance here as well. You had Check Thompson at at

631
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 2: your top five and pressure rate. Yeah, I think it's

632
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 2: take your pick. You know, if you like the Panthers,

633
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 2: you like the under you know, maybe you just want

634
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 2: to play both. But I don't see the Patriots doing

635
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 2: much of anything in this matchup. And I loved them

636
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 2: last week, and that a lot a lot of people

637
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: agree with me, you know, going against that Charger team

638
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 2: coming off to buy, I said, hey, this Patriots team

639
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: is going to play well. They controlled that game. They're

640
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 2: going to struggle here and people are going to probably

641
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 2: scratch their heads. You know, it should be a low

642
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 2: scoring game. And yeah, I mean, PJ Walk, I mean,

643
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: you talk about betting feelings though. So I had the

644
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 2: Steelers last week and I had the Panthers. First, I'm

645
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 2: sitting there just watching Red Zone, feeling pretty good about

646
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 2: my day. You know, nothing was going off the rails.

647
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 2: But then I see Mike Tomlin fake a field goal

648
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: and get his kicker nailed and he's out of the game.

649
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 2: Then then the Panthers are like in complete control of

650
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 2: the game. They're driving down the field. They run Sam

651
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 2: Donald or he runs I forget if there was a

652
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 2: call run or not, but he gets lit up, like

653
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 2: lit up to the point where his head snaps back,

654
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 2: the ball comes out of his hands, He almost fumbles

655
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 2: in like deep in the red zone. On the very

656
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 2: next play. They call a designed run for Sam Donald

657
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 2: on the very next play, and he gets lit up again.

658
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 2: And that's why he's concussed right now. That's literally why

659
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 2: he's in concussion protocol. Then PJ Walker comes in almost

660
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 2: throws a pick six on the first play. So like,

661
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: I mean, you talk about feelings of better, I just

662
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 2: happened to get some lucky breaks, but I was not

663
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 2: happy like with two, Like what are what are these

664
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 2: coaches doing? Like I really don't know what these coaches

665
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 2: are doing here.

666
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 3: You bring up a great point. I was looking at

667
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 3: the Panthers. I mean, their past defensive numbers are elite.

668
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 3: But you saw this with the with Washington last year

669
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 3: as well. There's a correlation between a team that is

670
00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 3: able to generate elite pressure and they're dominated and secondary's

671
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 3: numbers and you don't have to cover as much, you

672
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 3: can be a little more aggressive, and so those two

673
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 3: things go hand at hand. And the Panthers are just

674
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 3: generating so much pressure right now, and they give you

675
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 3: a lot of different looks on the back end, different

676
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 3: zone looks. Yeah, so I think back to just makes

677
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 3: a couple of key mistakes here, and this gives a grinder.

678
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean the only Panthers corner that struggled has

679
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 2: been CJ. Henderson and he came from the Jaguars, So

680
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 2: you know that's I guess to be expected at this point. Okay,

681
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 2: for my second pick and the fourth overall of the

682
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Los Angeles Chargers

683
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 2: a minus one and a half at the Philadelphia Eagles.

684
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 2: This is a pretty public play, so you know, it's

685
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 2: rare that I'm on the same side as a public

686
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 2: more of a contrarian better, But I think you have

687
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 2: to buy loll in the Chargers so high on the

688
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 2: Eagles right here, because remember last week I said it,

689
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 2: everyone's too high in the Chargers. They're coming up with.

690
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 2: Buy they're going to struggle against this Belichick defense the

691
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 2: week before you nailed them, or the game before you

692
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,959
Speaker 2: nailed them. You know, bad match up against ball some more. Okay,

693
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 2: So the Charges have gone against a Wing Martindale defense

694
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 2: and a Bill Belichick defense justin Herbert in the second year.

695
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 2: Both of those defenses, you know, could confuse the opponent quarterbacks,

696
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 2: and they also can play man to band coverage. They

697
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 2: play man at the highest rate in the league this

698
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 2: Eagles defense. And I know Jonathan Gannon is your boy,

699
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 2: but I'm really not liking what I'm seeing out of

700
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 2: this Eagles defense. I just think it's too easy to

701
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 2: prepare for it. Run zone at the third Okay, yeah,

702
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 2: so they run zone at the third highest rate in

703
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 2: the league. They they're playing a lot of quarters coverage.

704
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 2: They want to make the offense drive up and down

705
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 2: the field, which in theory a lot of defense a

706
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 2: smart defensive coordinators are doing. But with Philly, it's just

707
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 2: you're not really giving the opponent anything too difficult to

708
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 2: like have the game plan for. You're just kind of

709
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 2: sitting back there and yeah, if you go to Darius

710
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 2: slay side, you're probably not gonna get too much. But

711
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 2: that's really it, Like there's nothing in Maddox. You know,

712
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 2: sometimes he'll come off the edge, you know and blitz

713
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 2: you know, from from the secondary. But it's really not

714
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 2: a great defense. It's bowl average and DVOA. Then you

715
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 2: would at the red zone they're twenty ninth. You look

716
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 2: at third down, they're twenty six. So if you're gonna

717
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:07,280
Speaker 2: have a bet, but don't break defense, and then you break,

718
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 2: then what are you really? So this is a matchup

719
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 2: where the Chargers defense, I agree, it's not quite as impressive,

720
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 2: similar scheme, they're mixing things up a little more. But

721
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 2: the Eagles offense, you know, they probably score twenty one

722
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 2: to twenty four points. So when I'm betting the Chargers,

723
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 2: I'm just looking for spots where the Chargers can score.

724
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 2: This is a completely different matchup, completely opposite of the

725
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 2: last two games where it was just confusing man coverage,

726
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 2: a lot of different looks, easy zone defense. Justin Herbert

727
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 2: average is nearly a yard per a teenp more against

728
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 2: zone coverage. So I think the Chargers can score in

729
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 2: this game. I'm getting one and a half. Even though

730
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:43,840
Speaker 2: the Chargers, you know, I mean, whether they're on the

731
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 2: road or at home, it doesn't really make a difference.

732
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 2: They have no home field advantage. And the Chargers have

733
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 2: also played well against mobile quarterbacks, guys that can make plays,

734
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:55,879
Speaker 2: you know, throwing or running. A couple of weeks ago,

735
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 2: even though they lost thirty four to six to the

736
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 2: Baltimore Ravens, that was mostly to do with the Chargers

737
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 2: offense and the Ravens run game, but Lamar Jackson just

738
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 2: nineteen to twenty seven for one hundred and sixty seven yards,

739
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 2: one touchdown, two interceptions, Dak Prescott only two hundred and

740
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 2: thirty seven yards, no touchdowns and a pick, and Mahomes

741
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 2: needed forty four attempts to get two hundred sixty yards.

742
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 2: He did though, three touchdowns, but he also got picked twice.

743
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 2: So they've had success against these quarterbacks that can move around,

744
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 2: have the Chargers. So that's another reason why I liked

745
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 2: them in this matchup against Jaywen Hurts. And then you

746
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 2: look at Philadelphia and you want to talk about beating

747
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 2: up on bad teams. Philadelphia outscored Atlanta in Detroit seventy

748
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 2: six to twelve. In the other six games, they've been

749
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:42,280
Speaker 2: outscored one hundred and seventy nine to one twenty seven.

750
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 2: That's eight point seven points per game. It's more than

751
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 2: a touchdown. And I know they had some, you know,

752
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,320
Speaker 2: they kept it close with the Bucks, and they probably

753
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 2: should have had more against the Niners as well. That

754
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 2: was a tough break. But still this is this is

755
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 2: far from an impressive team. I mean, we're sitting here

756
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 2: talking about ja when Hurts potentially getting benched. I don't

757
00:35:58,080 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 2: think he is, but some people seem to think that.

758
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:03,320
Speaker 2: And a few weeks ago, you know, two three weeks ago,

759
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:05,800
Speaker 2: before that Baltimore game, everyone was talking about the Chargers

760
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 2: is like an AFC championship contender as a team that

761
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 2: may go to the Super Bowl and upset the Chiefs,

762
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 2: because they already upset the Chiefs and now all of

763
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 2: a sudden, they can't even get a field goal on

764
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 2: the road against this below average Philly team that Herbert

765
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 2: knows the scheme that he's gonna you know, he's gonna

766
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 2: just They're just gonna go upround down the field and

767
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 2: score when they get in the red zone and convert

768
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 2: when they're on third down. You know, I love the

769
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 2: Chargers here. It is a public play, but I'm taking

770
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 2: this at anything under a field goal idea.

771
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 3: You make a good case I'm getting, but I'm just

772
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 3: getting weird vibes from this game and this line. I am.

773
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 3: I'm not playing the Eagles here, but I actually do

774
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 3: light the over some I think the Chargers are gonna

775
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 3: have success moving the ball. They'll be able to throw

776
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 3: it underneath, and they'll be able to march up and

777
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 3: down the field. There's a lot of familiarity on both

778
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 3: ends here on the other side, so I don't think

779
00:36:57,640 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 3: I agree with you. I think the Chargers will have

780
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 3: no issue moving the ball, and on the other side

781
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,359
Speaker 3: a lot of familiarity to the Eagles as well, if

782
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 3: they want to run it. I hope you know if

783
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:07,800
Speaker 3: you're the Eagles fan, this is a game where you

784
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 3: want to establish more of a run because the Chargers

785
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 3: can't defend the run. I don't know if they will,

786
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 3: but if you want to run it, you can run

787
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 3: it all day on the Chargers very weak front seven,

788
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 3: and I just just defenses. I said up for there

789
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 3: is not a great fit for what Staley wants to do.

790
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 3: The personnel wise, like Bosa is out there saying like

791
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 3: we didn't move me outside to get more pressure on

792
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 3: mac Jones last week. There's just a lot this doesn't

793
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 3: really fit. And now that I don't know who's playing

794
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,280
Speaker 3: corner for them this weekend, that would be my biggest concern.

795
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 3: If Philly comes out and throws it. You know, Samuel

796
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 3: didn't practice that. I think he's a concussion protocol. Davis

797
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 3: didn't practice today. He might not play, So you're down

798
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 3: to bare bones. On the outside of corner potentially, So

799
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 3: I think that both teams could have some success, but

800
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 3: the offenses should have success moving the ball. I don't

801
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 3: hate the play. If you put a gun to my head,

802
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 3: I would play the Chargers, but I worry about obviously

803
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 3: they're special teams as always, and just who's going to

804
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 3: play corner for them. So I think up to fifty

805
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 3: I like the Silver I might play that small.

806
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I just wanted to talk about that's a

807
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:08,720
Speaker 2: good point about the run defense, because that's actually another

808
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 2: reason why I like the Chargers in the spot. The Eagles, Yeah,

809
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 2: they beat the Lions forty four to six. The Lions

810
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 2: never were close, so they ran more than they run

811
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 2: all season. Even with that game, they're still averaging a

812
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 2: league low sixteen point six handoffs per game to running back.

813
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 2: So it's tough for the Eagles to commit to running

814
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,359
Speaker 2: the football. They don't have their best running back, so

815
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 2: I'm not worried about that, and they're special teams. It

816
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 2: is bad. That's why one of the reasons, you know,

817
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 2: going against the Belichick coach team, you know their special

818
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 2: team is going to be top notch. But they did

819
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 2: do a couple of things you mentioned one of them

820
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 2: last week. They added Hopkins. He had a good game

821
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 2: in his first game. He's obviously an upgrade on vis Kaino,

822
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 2: almost anybody is. And they also added Andre Roberts in

823
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 2: the return game, so kJ Hill wasn't given them much,

824
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,879
Speaker 2: so they could get a little better. Like I don't

825
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 2: know if they'll be thirty two because they are thirty

826
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 2: two and Dvoa on special teams, I think that'll rise

827
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 2: up a little bit, actually be with the better kicker,

828
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 2: but also Roberts, you know, could give him a little

829
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 2: more in the return game. So I liked it. I

830
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 2: just like the matchup. I think. I think if the

831
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 2: Eagles win like twenty to thirteen or something like that,

832
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 2: we're not getting this. But because they went forty four

833
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 2: to six against these hapless Lions, you're getting a perfect

834
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 2: bi low opportunity or on the charge of the perfect

835
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 2: so high on the Yeah, another reason.

836
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 3: Why i'd like to over by the way, both these

837
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 3: teams to want to play fast if they're both top

838
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 3: five and mutual situation pace. But yeah, maybe the Chargers

839
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 3: can get to thirty one and special team studio at all. Right,

840
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 3: for my third pick and the fifth overall of the

841
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 3: Sunday six pack. I'm going with Cleveland Clowns plus three

842
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 3: excuse me, Cleveland Browns plus three minus one twenty at

843
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:51,080
Speaker 3: bet MGM. This is look I had the Browns and

844
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 3: a teaser as well. I'm gonna play some plus three

845
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 3: minus one twenty which you can find at bet MGM.

846
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 3: Right now. This is a game that I look at,

847
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 3: you know, coming into the I had the Browns rated

848
00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 3: higher than the Bengals. After what we've seen so far

849
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 3: this season, I still have the Browns a couple of

850
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 3: points better than the Bengals. Okay, there's a couple of

851
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 3: injury issues, a couple more injury issues for the Browns,

852
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 3: but they're getting a little healthier in key areas. Okay,

853
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,399
Speaker 3: I still have the Browns ahead of the Bengals. Where

854
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 3: is this game? It's in SINCI. What's the home field

855
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:24,800
Speaker 3: in this situation? A divisional game in the same state. Nothing,

856
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 3: So I basically make this game right around a coin flip.

857
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 3: So I'll gladly take you know, pay to get the

858
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 3: field goal here, gladly tease them up over three, four, six,

859
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 3: and seven in a game that I think is basically

860
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 3: just going to come down to one or two plays.

861
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 3: I don't know what has happened with the Bengals, be

862
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 3: they blew out the Ravens and everyone thinks that they're

863
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 3: the greatest team in the world now, but you know,

864
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 3: they just lost to the Jets. They should have lost

865
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:51,280
Speaker 3: at home, but the Jaguars they lost to the Bears,

866
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 3: and justin Fields, they lost to the same Steelers team

867
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 3: that the Browns just lost too. Yeah, and I think

868
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 3: that people are are starting to are you know, starting

869
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 3: to sound on the Browns. You know, last week they

870
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 3: lost to the Steelers. Sam Steelers team to beat the Bengals,

871
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 3: but just a bad The Steelers are a bad matchup

872
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 3: for the Browns. They can get a lot they can

873
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 3: generate elite pressure and just cripple Baker Mayfield. The Bengals

874
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 3: can't really do that. They're not getting pressure at an

875
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 3: elite rate. So, you know, I think Baker Mayfield to

876
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 3: be able to operate this offense. The Browns offensive line

877
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:23,960
Speaker 3: Conkland is a big loss, but the rest of the

878
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:28,320
Speaker 3: offensive line should be healthy. They can control this Bengals

879
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 3: defensive front, which has been a lot better. They went

880
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 3: out and spent a lot of money there so I

881
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 3: think that the Browns a lot of success success moving

882
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 3: the ball. The Bengals look there, they've just been it's

883
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 3: hit or missed with these huge plays, and Javar Chase

884
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 3: has been amazing. He has like seven hundred yards in

885
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:48,800
Speaker 3: single coverage that gets double The next best person, Joe Was,

886
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,760
Speaker 3: is very good at taking away your number one option.

887
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 3: I expect that to happen here. Denzel Ward should be back.

888
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 3: That's big for their secondary, and you have to be

889
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 3: able to get pressure on Barrow with out blitzing. That's

890
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 3: how you slow him down. The Browns could do that.

891
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,839
Speaker 3: I mean, you look at Miles Garrett, Jendadian Clowney, and

892
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 3: Tack McKinley. They're three of the top four in the

893
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 3: NFL and pass rush win rate. I believe clown is

894
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 3: going to play, Garrett is in and I think that

895
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 3: they can get pressure on Burrow, throw them off his

896
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 3: game a little bit, and there's some third down progression

897
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:23,800
Speaker 3: coming for this Browns defense. You look at early downs,

898
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 3: they're playing really well. They're thirtieth and epa per play

899
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 3: on third downs. So I think that that should start

900
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 3: to stabilize and come back down to where their overall

901
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:38,439
Speaker 3: numbers are and I think the Bengals defense has been

902
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 3: overperforming in general. So you know, I don't think there's

903
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,439
Speaker 3: I'm not coming out here and saying, oh my god,

904
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 3: the Browns are locked to win this game. I have

905
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,800
Speaker 3: nowhere near as confident as I am with the forty

906
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 3: nine ers. But I truly make this game a coin flip.

907
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 3: I think it's a coin flip. There's basically no home

908
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:59,799
Speaker 3: field advantage here, and I think this is a very

909
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,880
Speaker 3: close divisional game that comes down to one or two plays,

910
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 3: and you know, put me over the edge there is

911
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:10,399
Speaker 3: I'll take the much better coaching staff and the much

912
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 3: more aggressive coach in that scenario. So I'll side with

913
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 3: stefanskiin company here give me the Browns.

914
00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:20,360
Speaker 2: And also this might be I know he's banged up,

915
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 2: This might be a more comfortable Baker Mayfield, not just

916
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 2: because of the you know, downgraded pressure when you go

917
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 2: from Pittsburgh to and Arizona for that matter, you know,

918
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:35,879
Speaker 2: to a team like the Bengals, but also because O'Dell

919
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 2: Becka's not gonna be an that huddle, you know, So

920
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 2: I like, remember last year they played, he played Baker.

921
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,360
Speaker 2: Maybe I like the best stretch of his life outside

922
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:45,760
Speaker 2: of that rookie year stretch, and both of those stretches,

923
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 2: the rookie year stretch and last year pretty much came

924
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 2: without Odell Beckham.

925
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 3: I think they're going to rally around this, that the

926
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 3: offense is going to rally around all this drama this week.

927
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 3: And another reason I think the Browns are undervalued in

928
00:43:57,920 --> 00:43:59,959
Speaker 3: the market is Stays dealt with a ton of injury

929
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 3: all year, so you have to take their numbers and

930
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 3: their results with a grain of salt, whereas the Bengals

931
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 3: have been fairly healthy. So I just I don't I

932
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 3: don't see how you can get to basically saying that

933
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 3: the Bengals are field goal better than the Browns, which

934
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 3: is what this is assuming, Which is what this is

935
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 3: saying if you assume that home field is basically nothing

936
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 3: in a game like this, which I believe it is.

937
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 3: So give me the Browns.

938
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably join you on this. I mean, you

939
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 2: look at the Browns. They're sixth in overall d v

940
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,720
Speaker 2: o A. The Bengals are twenty first because remember DVA

941
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:37,840
Speaker 2: schedule adjusted. You know, the Browns have played the Chiefs.

942
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 2: You know the Bengals lost to the Jets. But and

943
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:43,720
Speaker 2: I'm surprised you didn't mention this. Browns also fourth special

944
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 2: teams d v o A. The Bengals are, they're ten,

945
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,320
Speaker 2: but you know number four. You know Cleveland has the

946
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 2: advantage here on special teams. I think I think Cleveland's

947
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 2: roster is still a better roster here. And you're fifteenth

948
00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:58,359
Speaker 2: spots higher and overall d v o A, and you're

949
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 2: and you're you know you at three, So yeah, I'll

950
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 2: probably be joining you on this one. I agree. I

951
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:07,919
Speaker 2: like that, you know, plus three one twenty there, maybe

952
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 2: it even gets down to one fifteen if you know,

953
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 2: people think the Bengals are gonna bounce back. Probably not,

954
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 2: but either way, yeah, I like the I like the

955
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 2: Browns a lot in this spot. This this is just

956
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 2: a point foot game. I think I have it Bengals

957
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 2: by one, and even that seems a little a little high,

958
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:25,280
Speaker 2: all right. For my third and final pick of the week,

959
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 2: number nine Sunday six pack, I am going with the

960
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:36,879
Speaker 2: Denver Broncos plus ten at bed MGM at the Dallas Cowboys,

961
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:41,839
Speaker 2: And man, I know this is the right play. I'm

962
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 2: still doing it as my one point play because I'm

963
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 2: always gonna be nervous. I think Dak will be back here,

964
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 2: always gonna be nervous going against the Cowboys. But I

965
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 2: this number is way higher than I have it projected.

966
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 2: I have it around I think eight for this game.

967
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:00,359
Speaker 2: So the markets at ten I think are our Action

968
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 2: Network pro projections. It's we have collectively. We have it

969
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,600
Speaker 2: at plus seven. So I might even be a little

970
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:09,799
Speaker 2: higher on the on the Cowboys than most. And I'm

971
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 2: still going against him here. I think, you know, Football

972
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 2: Outsiders model has it a round seven five thirty eighth

973
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:17,799
Speaker 2: model has it at seven. I know the Broncos lost

974
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:22,800
Speaker 2: Von Miller, but listen, the Broncos have committed multiple turnovers

975
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 2: in only one game on offense. So this is not

976
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 2: as much a bet on the Broncos defense, which has

977
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 2: actually played well, you know, against some shaky opponents, but

978
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:35,879
Speaker 2: they are top five in you know, drive success rate

979
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 2: on defense. But this is more of a bet on

980
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:41,360
Speaker 2: the Broncos just being able to stay close and or

981
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 2: get a back door with the offense. You have Jerry

982
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:47,319
Speaker 2: Judy back, so you have Judy Sutton, Tim Patrick. It's

983
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 2: three pretty good receivers. You know, Noah Fense at tight end.

984
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 2: You know he's on the COVID list, but they're his backup.

985
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 2: Okuwebunam is also pretty good, So even if he ends

986
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,839
Speaker 2: up sitting out, you know, Okawe Budam can step in there.

987
00:46:59,880 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 2: He the talented tight end. You have the two running backs,

988
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. We know you know this is

989
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:07,279
Speaker 2: these are these spots where you can keep it, you know,

990
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 2: manage the game and keep it close. They've turned the

991
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 2: ball over multiple times only once all year in eight games,

992
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 2: and their offense is above average in DVOA and that's

993
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 2: you know, dealing with some injuries. And then you just

994
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 2: look at Teddy Bridgewater and like, I think he's actually

995
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 2: playing well. He's been one of the best quarterbacks under pressure.

996
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 2: He's had some you know, the offensive line has struggled

997
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:31,879
Speaker 2: at times, and that that game against the Ravens where

998
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 2: he just got walloped, you know, kind of brings down

999
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:37,840
Speaker 2: a lot of the Broncos' numbers. But overall in his career,

1000
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 2: Teddy's twenty three and five against the spread, eighty two

1001
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 2: on the road when he's a dog of plus seven

1002
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 2: or more, seven and one against the spread when it

1003
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 2: goes to plus eight or more four no, So Teddy Bridgewater.

1004
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:54,319
Speaker 2: This is the spot you want to back him. It's

1005
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 2: not sexy, but I think the Broncos can keep it

1006
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 2: close and even if they're down in maybe fourteen seventeen,

1007
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:03,360
Speaker 2: maybe the worst comes to worse, he end up with

1008
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,359
Speaker 2: a push at the ten, because I think they can

1009
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:09,480
Speaker 2: backdoor with you know, Sutton Judy Patrick playing well, you know,

1010
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 2: on the every We write him off every year and

1011
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,359
Speaker 2: he seems to somehow almost always look like their best

1012
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 2: receiver even though they got all these talented guys around him,

1013
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 2: and he was kind of the guy that wasn't drafted

1014
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:22,320
Speaker 2: with any pedigree or anything like that. But yeah, it

1015
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 2: is just a bet on themen, you know. I mean,

1016
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 2: who knows Dak. You know, he looks like he's going

1017
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 2: to be back, but you never know. He could he

1018
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:31,080
Speaker 2: could not be one hundred percent. They could decide that

1019
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:33,359
Speaker 2: because they got the game against the Vikings, maybe they

1020
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 2: don't want to risk it here against the Broncos. You know,

1021
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 2: Broncos will play some man coverage and they're obviously they

1022
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 2: won't get much pressure. But it's not like you were

1023
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 2: going to slowly down the Cowboys offense too much anyway.

1024
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:46,920
Speaker 2: So I just think this offense for the Broncos, as

1025
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:49,879
Speaker 2: crazy as it sounds, has enough to kind of hang

1026
00:48:50,200 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 2: hang within a you know, a score or a ten

1027
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 2: point game.

1028
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I think this line is too high,

1029
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 3: mainly because with the the Cowbys are seven zero against

1030
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 3: the spread. The Broncos had had a ton of cluster

1031
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 3: injuries at the linebacker position, and now you lose Von

1032
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 3: Miller and you know Bryce Callahan, the their slot is

1033
00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 3: on ir and he's been one of their better corners

1034
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 3: this year.

1035
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:13,880
Speaker 2: That was tough to see him go down at the

1036
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 2: end of that game. That shouldn't have it shouldn't have

1037
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 2: even had to be defending in that time.

1038
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, brutal, And so the defense is obviously going to

1039
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:27,720
Speaker 3: take a step back here has been playing that great,

1040
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:29,840
Speaker 3: so you worry about them against the Cowboys offense. But

1041
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 3: I agree. I mean, look, Cooper's bagged up, Lamb is

1042
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 3: banged up. Who knows if they're gonna go Ah, you

1043
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 3: have Dak who I think the Cowboys would be smart

1044
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 3: to sit him out here, but the Cowboys organization is

1045
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:45,359
Speaker 3: not known for making smart decisions. They did last week.

1046
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 3: But Jerry Jones is out in the radio saying he's

1047
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,240
Speaker 3: gonna play. He's gonna play worried about, you know, beating

1048
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 3: the Broncos in Week nine versus the bigger picture, which

1049
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:56,399
Speaker 3: is why the Cowboys haven't won a Super Bowl in

1050
00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:59,880
Speaker 3: three decades. But they could sit him out here, and

1051
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 3: they were saying all the right things last week, saying like,

1052
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 3: we have a bigger we have something bigger to worry about,

1053
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:08,399
Speaker 3: which is which is the right approach. So but even

1054
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 3: if Dak clays, this offense should score, but the line's

1055
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:14,960
Speaker 3: too high, I think it should be you know, around

1056
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,240
Speaker 3: a touchdown, not ten. So I took plus ten as well.

1057
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 3: Teddy Teddy covers this is what he does. He covers

1058
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:23,800
Speaker 3: in the scenario, the Dallas defense has some regression coming.

1059
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:27,399
Speaker 3: I think the Broncos can keep up here and cover

1060
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 3: this number. I kind of like the over as well.

1061
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:31,919
Speaker 3: The only reason I didn't buy the over and chose

1062
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:33,839
Speaker 3: to go with the Broncos is with all the question

1063
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 3: marks about it. I mean, Tyro and Spits is banged

1064
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 3: up as well, Like who with the who are.

1065
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 2: The digs on defense banged up?

1066
00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:42,759
Speaker 3: You know? Yeah on Diggs yep, But I agree with you.

1067
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 3: I think it's Broncos are nothing lines way too high,

1068
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 3: all right.

1069
00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 2: So that is our Week nine Sunday six pack presented

1070
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:53,720
Speaker 2: by our friends at the Athletic Brewing Company to Rica.

1071
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:57,440
Speaker 2: Stucky is going with the San Francisco forty nine Ers

1072
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:02,320
Speaker 2: minus one hosting the Cardinals, the Cleveland Browns plus three

1073
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:06,279
Speaker 2: at the Cincinnati Bengals and I use the term a

1074
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:11,279
Speaker 2: very lightly, and the Carolina Panthers plus three and a

1075
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:15,279
Speaker 2: half hosting the New England Patriots. I am going with

1076
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:19,640
Speaker 2: the Atlanta Falcons plus six at the Saints, the Chargers

1077
00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:22,800
Speaker 2: minus one and a half at Philly, and the Broncos

1078
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:26,919
Speaker 2: plus ten in Dallas. And that concludes our Week nine

1079
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:30,560
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1080
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1081
00:51:33,840 --> 00:51:38,160
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1082
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:42,040
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1083
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:46,560
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1084
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1085
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1086
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1087
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1088
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:06,480
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1089
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1090
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,360
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1091
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1092
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:21,280
Speaker 2: the promo code Action ten. That's act Io N one zero.

1093
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:24,960
Speaker 2: All right, cheers, All right, beck, let's get into our

1094
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 2: coaches pep Talk for a week now. For today's coaches

1095
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:32,320
Speaker 2: pep Talk, we have an impassioned speech from former American

1096
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:37,759
Speaker 2: soccer star Alexi Laylists and we're dedicating it to Frank Right.

1097
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:40,640
Speaker 2: Let's go Frank right here, because we've said good things

1098
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 2: about him at times and he felt like he cost

1099
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:46,600
Speaker 2: his team the game, and he may have. I mean,

1100
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:48,799
Speaker 2: that was a bad call, you know, making Carson Wentz

1101
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:50,239
Speaker 2: drop back into the end zone to throw a tight

1102
00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:52,919
Speaker 2: end screen that may very well have been covered. I mean,

1103
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 2: you got to know your players and your situations there.

1104
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:56,880
Speaker 2: Dedicating this one of Frank right.

1105
00:52:57,719 --> 00:53:00,359
Speaker 4: It's dark days, indeed, but this is a time for

1106
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:03,480
Speaker 4: leaders to step up. And so to the supposed leaders,

1107
00:53:03,520 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 4: I will say this, clean it up, or let's get

1108
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:07,879
Speaker 4: someone who will is this really as good as it gets,

1109
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 4: because it's still not good enough. This is now all

1110
00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:12,759
Speaker 4: on you. Make us believe.

1111
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:16,160
Speaker 2: Again against this Jets team. Make us believe again. Frank right,

1112
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 2: you should be better than you are giving your performance.

1113
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:21,440
Speaker 2: So all right, now it's time for our favorite total

1114
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:26,240
Speaker 2: of the week. I stuck, so you had first pick

1115
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:29,239
Speaker 2: for our six pack this week. So I'll start us

1116
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:32,359
Speaker 2: off with my favorite total of the week. I am

1117
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:36,440
Speaker 2: back after a hiatus that did not cash, going with

1118
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:39,719
Speaker 2: a high under high total under going back to the

1119
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 2: ugly unders New England Carolina under forty one and a half.

1120
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:46,879
Speaker 2: Don't have to spend too long here, already mentioned it.

1121
00:53:47,200 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 2: We love Shaq Thompson being back. We love the Carolina secondary.

1122
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 2: We love the fact that they can marry a top

1123
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:57,000
Speaker 2: five pressure rate with a bunch of top cornerbacks in

1124
00:53:57,200 --> 00:53:59,319
Speaker 2: terms of Pro football focuses grades, and just you know,

1125
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 2: watching them play can tell they're they're locking up. So

1126
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:04,319
Speaker 2: this is the kind of matchup where I don't think

1127
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:06,560
Speaker 2: the Patriots are gonna be able to put up many points.

1128
00:54:06,680 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 2: And on the other side, you still do have a

1129
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:12,280
Speaker 2: Belichick defense going against whether it is Sam Donald or PJ. Walker.

1130
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:15,840
Speaker 2: You still don't expect the Panthers to put up a

1131
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 2: ton on offense. They could absolutely win this game, but

1132
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 2: should be an ugly game. Last four games Panthers averaging

1133
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:24,279
Speaker 2: just two hundred and seventy total yards per game, just

1134
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty eight passing yards per game, and

1135
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 2: on defense, Carolina second yards per play at five yards

1136
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:34,360
Speaker 2: even allowed per play. They're until second with two hundred

1137
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:37,759
Speaker 2: ninety six total yards per game allowed. And what are

1138
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:40,279
Speaker 2: they doing now? And they've explicitly said this, they want

1139
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:43,920
Speaker 2: to run the ball. Last week, forty seven rush attempts

1140
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 2: for the Carolina Panthers, twenty five passes, forty seven rush attempts.

1141
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:52,400
Speaker 2: And the Patriots they're not going to come in and

1142
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:54,720
Speaker 2: throw the ball around on the secondary. Bill Belichick smarter

1143
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 2: than that. I expect the Patriots also play somewhat of

1144
00:54:57,520 --> 00:54:59,720
Speaker 2: a run heavy game plan. Yeah, you have Damian Harris,

1145
00:54:59,719 --> 00:55:03,480
Speaker 2: you have Evenson Golden playing well. So everything points to

1146
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:05,880
Speaker 2: an under here. And you look at you know, Belichick

1147
00:55:05,960 --> 00:55:08,800
Speaker 2: going on a road. He doesn't mess around the unders,

1148
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:10,840
Speaker 2: even with Brady here for most of his time, the

1149
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 2: unders twenty eight and fifteen sixty five percent when New

1150
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:17,000
Speaker 2: England goes on the road since the twenty sixteenth season,

1151
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:19,799
Speaker 2: So love under forty one and a half, especially you know,

1152
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 2: forty one is a key number, so I love getting

1153
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:24,200
Speaker 2: that half point here at bet MGM.

1154
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind that. For my favorite total of

1155
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:33,480
Speaker 3: Week nine, I'm going with the Baltimore Ravens Minnesota Vikings

1156
00:55:33,520 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 3: over forty nine and a half, putting my undefeated streak

1157
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:40,240
Speaker 3: on the line on my Ravens. So pressure pressure is on. Look.

1158
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:42,719
Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of advantages for both offenses here.

1159
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:44,800
Speaker 3: I think the Vikings offense was play so well and

1160
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:47,359
Speaker 3: I think it was just a dud performance last week.

1161
00:55:47,400 --> 00:55:50,000
Speaker 3: They just came out and I'll mean one for thirteen

1162
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 3: on third down, just couldn't do anything right. But it's

1163
00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:54,440
Speaker 3: still an offense that can move the ball, and I

1164
00:55:54,520 --> 00:55:57,280
Speaker 3: love the way that it matches up with the Ravens.

1165
00:55:57,320 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 3: They're how the Vikings want to. There's zone their zone

1166
00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:05,880
Speaker 3: run scheme really can give the Ravens defense problems. The

1167
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 3: Ravens like the Blitz. Kirk Cousins have really good against

1168
00:56:08,640 --> 00:56:11,760
Speaker 3: the Blitz, so I think that there's still some soft

1169
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 3: pockets that you can attack in this Ravens defense. I

1170
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:17,239
Speaker 3: expect the Vikings offense to have success. On the other

1171
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:20,880
Speaker 3: side of the ball, the Ravens offense, I expect to

1172
00:56:21,080 --> 00:56:26,320
Speaker 3: just really do whatever it wants here against the Vikings

1173
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:28,880
Speaker 3: defense that's been really crushed by injury number one. The

1174
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:32,919
Speaker 3: Vikings defense can't it's been struggling against the run. They've

1175
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:35,560
Speaker 3: been getting a lot of pressure and playing better against

1176
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:39,520
Speaker 3: the pass. But you know, now you're down Peterson Dancer

1177
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:42,080
Speaker 3: didn't practice today, and not to mention, your two corners

1178
00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 3: and the outside are for six forty guys going against

1179
00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:48,319
Speaker 3: these Ravens fast receivers. Brown's having a break out of here.

1180
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:50,880
Speaker 3: Bateman is now in the line up, Watkins is back.

1181
00:56:51,360 --> 00:56:54,200
Speaker 3: So you have the Ravens finally have their full arsenal weapons.

1182
00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 3: Their offensive line has finally built some cohesiveness. They had

1183
00:56:58,640 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 3: all those injuries in the back backfield. You know, they've

1184
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:04,960
Speaker 3: had time to kind of mesh. They've had a bye week.

1185
00:57:05,440 --> 00:57:07,360
Speaker 3: This offense, I think is going to be a juggernaut

1186
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 3: after the buye. By the way, John Harbal is one

1187
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 3: of the best coaches against the spread after a bye

1188
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:14,440
Speaker 3: But I just don't see many ways that the Vikings

1189
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 3: can get stops. Daniel Hunter now out for the year.

1190
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:19,480
Speaker 3: He was one of the most important pieces on that

1191
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:22,760
Speaker 3: defense and just kills them because how you're getting pressure

1192
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:25,520
Speaker 3: that was compensating for a lot that you have injuries

1193
00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 3: in the secondary now so they can't defend the run.

1194
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:32,560
Speaker 3: Their secondary is now weaker, their pass rush is now weaker,

1195
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:36,760
Speaker 3: and this Ravens offense is now at full strength. By

1196
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:39,560
Speaker 3: the way, Nick Boyle also back this huge for the

1197
00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 3: Ravens rushing attack and just a number of different things

1198
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 3: he does on that offense. So I think the Ravens

1199
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 3: offense is being undervalued here. I think the Vikings offense

1200
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 3: can keep up. So I think this has a sneaky

1201
00:57:51,240 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 3: shootout potential and so give me the over.

1202
00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:56,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think people you know this line. You're probably

1203
00:57:56,840 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 2: looking at the dud by the Vikings in that you know,

1204
00:58:00,120 --> 00:58:02,959
Speaker 2: ugly game against Dallas and then Baltimore where they score

1205
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 2: only seventeen against the Bengals, and people are saying, I

1206
00:58:05,200 --> 00:58:07,840
Speaker 2: don't know about these offenses, but I agree, I think

1207
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 2: you know both of these the Vikings are going to

1208
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:11,880
Speaker 2: have success. They're not going to score thirteen points and

1209
00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:14,720
Speaker 2: go one for thirteen every week. The Ravens, as he

1210
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:17,480
Speaker 2: mentioned full Arsenal, and I especially like that call on

1211
00:58:17,560 --> 00:58:19,640
Speaker 2: Nick Boyle. I think he's really important to what they do,

1212
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 2: as you know, in a lot of facets, you know,

1213
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:24,280
Speaker 2: even in the passing game. I think that that allows

1214
00:58:24,360 --> 00:58:26,720
Speaker 2: him to go more confidently with those two tight end

1215
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:29,320
Speaker 2: sets when they want to or give Mark Andrews a

1216
00:58:29,360 --> 00:58:31,760
Speaker 2: breather because he's so integral to their passing game. You know,

1217
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:33,600
Speaker 2: if you could take Andrews out a couple of snaps

1218
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:36,600
Speaker 2: and get Boil in there to block more, you know,

1219
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:38,440
Speaker 2: you have more confidence in him than you know, like

1220
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 2: Eric Tomlinson or whoever. So love the return of Boil

1221
00:58:42,040 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 2: on what it does for this offense. All right, So

1222
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 2: that's going to do it. For our favorite total segment,

1223
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:50,960
Speaker 2: Stuck is going with the Ravens Vikings over forty nine

1224
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:53,520
Speaker 2: and a half. I'm going Patriots Panthers under forty one

1225
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 2: and a half. Now it's time for our favorite teaser

1226
00:58:57,080 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 2: of the week.

1227
00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:07,160
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1228
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:17,360
Speaker 2: Don't don't tease me trying to please all right, Stuck.

1229
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:21,360
Speaker 2: For those not familiar, teasers are when you get an

1230
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:24,720
Speaker 2: additional amount of points. Usually six is a standard to

1231
00:59:24,800 --> 00:59:28,720
Speaker 2: allocate to bets two or more. Usually do its two

1232
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 2: team teasers. That's what we do on the show. So

1233
00:59:31,040 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 2: for example, an eight point favorite becomes a two point

1234
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:36,920
Speaker 2: favorite with a six point teaser, and then an eight

1235
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:41,000
Speaker 2: point underdog would become a fourteen point underdog. Stuck has

1236
00:59:41,040 --> 00:59:43,080
Speaker 2: a lot of great content out talking about you know

1237
00:59:43,120 --> 00:59:45,840
Speaker 2: the key numbers you're trying to move through when you're teasing,

1238
00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 2: the three to four, to six and the seven. Just

1239
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:52,000
Speaker 2: google Stucky teasers or search it on Action network dot

1240
00:59:52,040 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 2: com and you should be able to find it. Stuck

1241
00:59:54,240 --> 00:59:57,320
Speaker 2: where you're going for your teaser in week nine?

1242
00:59:57,800 --> 01:00:00,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I already mentioned one piece. That's the Browns teasing

1243
01:00:00,320 --> 01:00:02,720
Speaker 3: them up classic teaser piece up from two two and

1244
01:00:02,760 --> 01:00:05,440
Speaker 3: a half over to eight eight and a half, and

1245
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:09,880
Speaker 3: I'll pair them with the Chiefs. Chiefs are actually gonna

1246
01:00:09,880 --> 01:00:11,959
Speaker 3: be one of my bets this week. It's gonna maybe

1247
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:14,280
Speaker 3: give them one last chance against the Packers. It was

1248
01:00:14,320 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 3: funny I had I had the accounts up and I couldn't.

1249
01:00:17,920 --> 01:00:20,600
Speaker 3: I had my accounts about, I couldn't find the Chiefs,

1250
01:00:20,640 --> 01:00:24,400
Speaker 3: and I'm like, where is this gate? And I'm looking, looking, looking,

1251
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:26,240
Speaker 3: and then I get a text as Rogers is out,

1252
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:28,880
Speaker 3: I'm like you gotta be kidding me. I took a

1253
01:00:28,920 --> 01:00:30,680
Speaker 3: shower first. If I didn't take a shower, I would

1254
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:35,480
Speaker 3: have had the Chiefs a pick with against the Packers

1255
01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:38,320
Speaker 3: without Aaron Rodgers. By the way, this line, who knows

1256
01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:40,520
Speaker 3: it could rise more. I don't know what else is

1257
01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:43,120
Speaker 3: going to happen, but obviously I think there's about seven

1258
01:00:43,160 --> 01:00:46,280
Speaker 3: point drop off here to make this line closer to

1259
01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:48,520
Speaker 3: eight and a half nine. It happened midwek and now

1260
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:50,680
Speaker 3: you're making your first career start. It's not like you've

1261
01:00:50,720 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 3: been practicing for a couple of weeks knowing this is

1262
01:00:53,400 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 3: going to happen. Yeah, So I look. The Packer's defense

1263
01:00:56,280 --> 01:00:58,000
Speaker 3: I still think has been over performing a bit the

1264
01:00:58,040 --> 01:01:02,280
Speaker 3: past weeks. They haven't really seen many elite offenses, and

1265
01:01:02,440 --> 01:01:05,200
Speaker 3: the Chiefs have been just a mess. I hope that

1266
01:01:05,240 --> 01:01:08,320
Speaker 3: they learned something last week, you would think, and this

1267
01:01:08,400 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 3: is basically for their season. I assume that they can

1268
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 3: beat Jordan Love at home. But what they need to

1269
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:15,760
Speaker 3: do is teams have adjusted to the Chiefs. It seems

1270
01:01:15,800 --> 01:01:17,800
Speaker 3: like Mahomes in his own head too. We're trying to

1271
01:01:17,800 --> 01:01:19,680
Speaker 3: read defenses, but to everyone is just you just watch.

1272
01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:23,440
Speaker 3: Stevens are just dropping two safeties way back. They're not blitzing,

1273
01:01:24,040 --> 01:01:26,720
Speaker 3: and there's been way there's way too many plays where

1274
01:01:26,720 --> 01:01:29,000
Speaker 3: Mahomes is dropping back and ends up running towards the

1275
01:01:29,000 --> 01:01:32,320
Speaker 3: sideline and just chucking the ball into triple covered like

1276
01:01:32,360 --> 01:01:35,200
Speaker 3: this is not look everyone has adjusted to you. You

1277
01:01:35,240 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 3: need to adjust. The Packers do this with Rogers. Run

1278
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:40,400
Speaker 3: the ball. They've been really successful in the ball. You

1279
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:43,160
Speaker 3: could do that against the Packers. Dick and dunk down

1280
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:45,440
Speaker 3: the field, make the safeties come up, and then you're

1281
01:01:45,480 --> 01:01:48,120
Speaker 3: gonna have Kelsey, you're gonna have Hill, You're gonna have

1282
01:01:48,200 --> 01:01:51,720
Speaker 3: Hardman to set up those deep shots. You can't. The

1283
01:01:52,120 --> 01:01:54,400
Speaker 3: Chiefs are not capable now of coming out and just

1284
01:01:54,880 --> 01:01:58,480
Speaker 3: snap Mahomes run back and chucks it deep. The offensive

1285
01:01:58,480 --> 01:02:01,080
Speaker 3: line also hasn't been great in past protect but teams

1286
01:02:01,080 --> 01:02:02,920
Speaker 3: have seen that work for a while. They're saying that

1287
01:02:03,000 --> 01:02:04,840
Speaker 3: we're not going to let that happen. So but I

1288
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:06,720
Speaker 3: think the Chiefs will have success running the ball here.

1289
01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:08,760
Speaker 3: It's obviously a tough spot with Jordan. I think that

1290
01:02:08,760 --> 01:02:10,959
Speaker 3: they can win this game. You would hope at home

1291
01:02:11,000 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 3: for their season. So yeah, give me the Chiefs in

1292
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:13,160
Speaker 3: the Browns.

1293
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:16,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Chiefs are like that team, like that guy who

1294
01:02:16,360 --> 01:02:18,160
Speaker 2: picks up the sticks in Madden and just picks the

1295
01:02:18,160 --> 01:02:20,320
Speaker 2: team of the mobile quarterback, rolls them out and just

1296
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:23,200
Speaker 2: throws deep every single time. Like that. That's what Mahomes

1297
01:02:23,240 --> 01:02:25,240
Speaker 2: reminds me of. But I agree. I think the Chiefs

1298
01:02:25,280 --> 01:02:28,280
Speaker 2: are ring for some positive reversion to the mean. They're

1299
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 2: turning the ball over on twenty three zero point four

1300
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 2: percent of offensive drives last year the high the most

1301
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:38,680
Speaker 2: turnovers with seventeen percent. You almost never see anything twenty

1302
01:02:38,720 --> 01:02:40,360
Speaker 2: or higher. So how do you get from you know,

1303
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:44,280
Speaker 2: twenty three percent down you know, under twenty to seventeen ish.

1304
01:02:44,320 --> 01:02:47,160
Speaker 2: You go some games without turning it over, and you

1305
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:50,360
Speaker 2: know you expect that to happen. For the Chiefs, I

1306
01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:52,920
Speaker 2: think they did kind of figure some things out. Now

1307
01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:55,400
Speaker 2: they just got to get the Homes. The thing is,

1308
01:02:55,560 --> 01:02:57,520
Speaker 2: the guy who really has to get better is Mahomes,

1309
01:02:57,640 --> 01:03:00,560
Speaker 2: and that's perfectly doable, right Like you know, like this

1310
01:03:00,680 --> 01:03:03,240
Speaker 2: is not a guy you worry about long term about

1311
01:03:03,560 --> 01:03:06,439
Speaker 2: correcting his issues. So I like the Chiefs. I'm going

1312
01:03:06,480 --> 01:03:08,160
Speaker 2: with them as well for my teasers. Seven and a

1313
01:03:08,200 --> 01:03:10,720
Speaker 2: half down to one and a half, and I'll go

1314
01:03:10,760 --> 01:03:12,560
Speaker 2: with the Rams is my other one seven and a

1315
01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:15,160
Speaker 2: half to one and a half, another team that just

1316
01:03:15,240 --> 01:03:17,360
Speaker 2: facing the team that's in a little bit of a

1317
01:03:17,400 --> 01:03:20,360
Speaker 2: tough spot, you know, without their most important player in

1318
01:03:20,640 --> 01:03:23,760
Speaker 2: a way, I know Tannehill probably would be worth more

1319
01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:26,560
Speaker 2: to the spread given you know, Logan Woodside as the backup.

1320
01:03:26,640 --> 01:03:29,760
Speaker 2: But I mean without Derek Henry, this this is not

1321
01:03:29,800 --> 01:03:32,280
Speaker 2: going to look good. The Rams are like they invite

1322
01:03:32,280 --> 01:03:35,000
Speaker 2: you to run. Now they can probably switch up their

1323
01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:37,440
Speaker 2: home game plan, you know, and play it a little

1324
01:03:37,440 --> 01:03:40,280
Speaker 2: differently because they probably weren't going to invite Derek Henry

1325
01:03:40,320 --> 01:03:41,800
Speaker 2: to run, Like I doubt that was going to be

1326
01:03:41,840 --> 01:03:43,640
Speaker 2: the game plan. So now the Rams can play a

1327
01:03:43,680 --> 01:03:46,080
Speaker 2: little more true to themselves. I think they can win

1328
01:03:46,080 --> 01:03:47,560
Speaker 2: by easter Field. But I think the Titan, you know,

1329
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:51,720
Speaker 2: the Titans are always pesky, but I like the Rams

1330
01:03:51,760 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 2: in the spot. I think they're playing really well. I

1331
01:03:53,760 --> 01:03:55,320
Speaker 2: think they match up well with the Titans. They got

1332
01:03:55,440 --> 01:03:57,120
Speaker 2: you know, they got these three receivers in the pass

1333
01:03:57,120 --> 01:04:00,200
Speaker 2: game playing well against that Titan secondary. So now you

1334
01:04:00,200 --> 01:04:02,320
Speaker 2: have no Henry, the play action game for Tennessee is

1335
01:04:02,360 --> 01:04:04,160
Speaker 2: not going to be as dead we I think the

1336
01:04:04,280 --> 01:04:07,560
Speaker 2: Rams have enough to kind of you know, win at

1337
01:04:07,600 --> 01:04:10,560
Speaker 2: the damage for the Titans offense, obviously, AJ Brown should

1338
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:12,360
Speaker 2: get should get his. We'll see what they do with

1339
01:04:12,480 --> 01:04:14,720
Speaker 2: Ramsey if they want to, maybe, you know, switch it up.

1340
01:04:14,720 --> 01:04:16,520
Speaker 2: They haven't really been using him in shadow coverage or

1341
01:04:16,560 --> 01:04:20,880
Speaker 2: anything like that. But I like the Rams to handle business.

1342
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:24,880
Speaker 2: Just not not not confident in betting them anywhere close

1343
01:04:24,920 --> 01:04:27,200
Speaker 2: to a touchdown, but to win the game essentially one

1344
01:04:27,240 --> 01:04:29,360
Speaker 2: and a half points, you're essentially betting them to win

1345
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:31,000
Speaker 2: the game. I feel good about him.

1346
01:04:31,440 --> 01:04:33,320
Speaker 3: The Titans when their defense has been good this year

1347
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:35,280
Speaker 3: is when their defensive line is able to get pressure.

1348
01:04:35,440 --> 01:04:37,040
Speaker 3: They're not gonna be able to get any pressure. So

1349
01:04:37,120 --> 01:04:38,600
Speaker 3: I don't know how their secondary is going to hold

1350
01:04:38,680 --> 01:04:42,560
Speaker 3: up against this Rams passing attack. You know, and the

1351
01:04:42,560 --> 01:04:46,280
Speaker 3: Rev's defense probably overrated right now after playing you know,

1352
01:04:46,320 --> 01:04:48,320
Speaker 3: the Seahawks when Wis get Wilson got hurt and then

1353
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:50,600
Speaker 3: just a bunch of bad teams. Seven and a half

1354
01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:53,800
Speaker 3: might be tad high. But I mean I make this now,

1355
01:04:53,920 --> 01:04:56,120
Speaker 3: like right around seven, so I don't think it's an

1356
01:04:56,120 --> 01:05:01,640
Speaker 3: egregious adjustment. I agree. I have the the Rams teased

1357
01:05:01,680 --> 01:05:05,320
Speaker 3: as well with the forty nine ers when they were

1358
01:05:05,320 --> 01:05:06,959
Speaker 3: plus two and a half. I teased the forty nineers

1359
01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:08,440
Speaker 3: up to eight and a half with the Rams down

1360
01:05:08,480 --> 01:05:10,920
Speaker 3: to a minus a half, so I agree with you here.

1361
01:05:11,200 --> 01:05:12,880
Speaker 2: All right, that's going to wrap it up for our

1362
01:05:13,360 --> 01:05:17,120
Speaker 2: teasers for week nine. Stuck is going with the Chiefs

1363
01:05:17,120 --> 01:05:18,960
Speaker 2: seven and a half to one and a half and

1364
01:05:19,000 --> 01:05:22,280
Speaker 2: the Browns plus three to plus nine. I'm going with

1365
01:05:22,320 --> 01:05:23,960
Speaker 2: the chief seven and a half to one and a

1366
01:05:24,000 --> 01:05:26,520
Speaker 2: half and the Rams seven and a half to one

1367
01:05:26,560 --> 01:05:30,240
Speaker 2: and a half. Now it's time once again for our

1368
01:05:30,320 --> 01:05:33,040
Speaker 2: money line underdog parlay.

1369
01:05:35,760 --> 01:05:40,720
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1370
01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:42,160
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1371
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 2: We've been crushing these yeap, where are you going this week?

1372
01:05:47,920 --> 01:05:50,160
Speaker 3: This is a weird one. I didn't really like many

1373
01:05:50,600 --> 01:05:53,680
Speaker 3: money line dogs on this week's card, but let's go

1374
01:05:54,000 --> 01:05:58,240
Speaker 3: with the g Men at home on a short week

1375
01:05:58,240 --> 01:06:02,000
Speaker 3: against the Raiders scene coming off of a look the Giants.

1376
01:06:02,120 --> 01:06:03,960
Speaker 3: There's some things you don't really like about the Giants here.

1377
01:06:04,000 --> 01:06:06,400
Speaker 3: They're dead last and past what Rush win Ray they're not.

1378
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:09,439
Speaker 3: They don't get an elite amount of pressure, which isn't

1379
01:06:09,480 --> 01:06:12,720
Speaker 3: great against Derek Carr. But I like what their defense

1380
01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:14,520
Speaker 3: did last week against the Chiefs and you can kind

1381
01:06:14,520 --> 01:06:17,800
Speaker 3: of follow a similar script against this Raiders team. Daniel

1382
01:06:17,840 --> 01:06:20,959
Speaker 3: Jones and this Giants team, they're always just given they're

1383
01:06:21,000 --> 01:06:23,440
Speaker 3: just a pest. So as a dog, they're just gonna

1384
01:06:23,440 --> 01:06:25,760
Speaker 3: find ways to hang around here. I don't and I

1385
01:06:25,800 --> 01:06:27,920
Speaker 3: don't like this Raiders team as a favorite. You know,

1386
01:06:27,960 --> 01:06:29,680
Speaker 3: the Raiders have been dealing with a lot with Rugs

1387
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:31,960
Speaker 3: and their coach. Now you're coming across country, you are

1388
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:35,440
Speaker 3: off of a bye. But I could see the Raiders

1389
01:06:35,480 --> 01:06:38,680
Speaker 3: being a little distracted and then you know they're five

1390
01:06:38,760 --> 01:06:42,560
Speaker 3: and two playing a bad Giants team. Next week they

1391
01:06:42,600 --> 01:06:46,760
Speaker 3: got the Chiefs, then they got you know, the Bengals,

1392
01:06:46,800 --> 01:06:49,360
Speaker 3: and then the Cowboys. So like, I can see the

1393
01:06:49,440 --> 01:06:53,600
Speaker 3: Raiders slipping up here. I don't love it, but I

1394
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:56,760
Speaker 3: think that there's a small amount of value on the Giants.

1395
01:06:56,760 --> 01:06:58,320
Speaker 3: So let's throw the g man here in a pretty

1396
01:06:58,400 --> 01:07:01,360
Speaker 3: ugly card for money on a dogs. In my opinion, yeah,

1397
01:07:01,360 --> 01:07:01,760
Speaker 3: I could see.

1398
01:07:01,800 --> 01:07:03,160
Speaker 2: I mean, the only thing that worries me is is

1399
01:07:03,240 --> 01:07:05,960
Speaker 2: like this is the anti Giant spot, you know, Daniel

1400
01:07:06,000 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 2: Jones at home.

1401
01:07:06,840 --> 01:07:07,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, But.

1402
01:07:08,760 --> 01:07:10,360
Speaker 2: Besides that, I looked at this game and I was like,

1403
01:07:10,360 --> 01:07:12,160
Speaker 2: I could totally see the Raiders losing this game like

1404
01:07:12,280 --> 01:07:14,280
Speaker 2: twenty one to nine or something like similar to that

1405
01:07:14,320 --> 01:07:16,880
Speaker 2: Bears game. Remember that Bears game where it's like they

1406
01:07:16,920 --> 01:07:20,080
Speaker 2: got justin fields. The Raiders, we're rolling right now. They'll

1407
01:07:20,080 --> 01:07:23,360
Speaker 2: handle this game. Nope, So I don't hate it. I

1408
01:07:23,480 --> 01:07:27,680
Speaker 2: was going to go with the Houston Texans, but I

1409
01:07:27,720 --> 01:07:30,200
Speaker 2: actually think, you know, you kind of taught me into

1410
01:07:30,240 --> 01:07:33,000
Speaker 2: the Cleveland Browns here because you made a really good

1411
01:07:33,000 --> 01:07:34,680
Speaker 2: point about the fact there's no real home field for

1412
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:38,120
Speaker 2: the Bengals, and I do have these tape teams rated

1413
01:07:38,240 --> 01:07:41,520
Speaker 2: pretty evenly, with the Browns a little bit better as well.

1414
01:07:42,040 --> 01:07:44,880
Speaker 2: So let's go Cleveland at plus one twenty five at

1415
01:07:44,920 --> 01:07:48,080
Speaker 2: bet MGM, the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast.

1416
01:07:48,800 --> 01:07:51,280
Speaker 2: We talked about it already. I think it's a even

1417
01:07:51,320 --> 01:07:54,440
Speaker 2: we match game, no home field, not as much pressure

1418
01:07:54,480 --> 01:07:57,200
Speaker 2: for Baker Mayfield to deal with, probably a weight off

1419
01:07:57,200 --> 01:08:01,160
Speaker 2: his back with no Odell Beckhams dealing with a lot

1420
01:08:01,160 --> 01:08:04,320
Speaker 2: of injuries. Fifteen spots better in terms of overall DVOA,

1421
01:08:04,400 --> 01:08:07,720
Speaker 2: which is huge. I mean that's you know, you have

1422
01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:10,880
Speaker 2: another spot like that, especially with interstate matchup, but you

1423
01:08:10,960 --> 01:08:14,200
Speaker 2: might see the Browns favored, so uh and we've seen

1424
01:08:14,240 --> 01:08:15,920
Speaker 2: the Bengals like we've seen the worst of the Bengals.

1425
01:08:15,960 --> 01:08:17,680
Speaker 2: Usually you say it's a bounce back spot, but the

1426
01:08:17,680 --> 01:08:19,320
Speaker 2: Brown's got to be a little more desperate here. They're

1427
01:08:19,320 --> 01:08:21,640
Speaker 2: behind the Bengals and the standings. They're coming off a

1428
01:08:21,720 --> 01:08:24,600
Speaker 2: divisional loss. You know, I think the I think the

1429
01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:27,280
Speaker 2: Brown's gonna want it more, and uh, I think they're

1430
01:08:27,280 --> 01:08:29,840
Speaker 2: the better team. So let's go Browns here in our

1431
01:08:29,840 --> 01:08:32,200
Speaker 2: moneyline dog parlay. Let's trying to hit when we've been

1432
01:08:32,240 --> 01:08:32,880
Speaker 2: both hitting them.

1433
01:08:32,960 --> 01:08:35,320
Speaker 3: Well, I think we're gonna get there again. And I

1434
01:08:35,320 --> 01:08:37,599
Speaker 3: would have went Browns. That was about the choice. I'm

1435
01:08:37,600 --> 01:08:39,439
Speaker 3: glad that you did. I use them in the tea.

1436
01:08:39,680 --> 01:08:42,040
Speaker 3: I use them as my best bet, so I want

1437
01:08:42,080 --> 01:08:45,040
Speaker 3: to take too much Brown dis exposure for one present

1438
01:08:45,120 --> 01:08:47,679
Speaker 3: in the lockets usually doesn't end well. So I'm glad

1439
01:08:47,680 --> 01:08:50,120
Speaker 3: that you went there. So let's get it on Browns

1440
01:08:50,120 --> 01:08:50,759
Speaker 3: and g men.

1441
01:08:51,560 --> 01:08:53,400
Speaker 2: And that would be about if you parlay him, that

1442
01:08:53,400 --> 01:08:55,240
Speaker 2: would be about a plus four thirty. But at this point,

1443
01:08:55,280 --> 01:08:57,719
Speaker 2: I feel like you might want to play them singer

1444
01:08:57,760 --> 01:09:00,679
Speaker 2: rely as well, because I think we're at least five hundred,

1445
01:09:00,680 --> 01:09:03,280
Speaker 2: if not over five hundred combine on the year with

1446
01:09:03,320 --> 01:09:05,920
Speaker 2: these things, so you're obviously in the green even if

1447
01:09:05,960 --> 01:09:08,720
Speaker 2: you're hitting half of these much to us more so

1448
01:09:08,920 --> 01:09:11,479
Speaker 2: giants plus one thirty five for stuck rounds, plus one

1449
01:09:11,560 --> 01:09:12,360
Speaker 2: twenty five for me.

1450
01:09:14,479 --> 01:09:18,720
Speaker 5: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by betmgm, and

1451
01:09:18,800 --> 01:09:22,360
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01:10:15,400 --> 01:10:20,360
Speaker 5: located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada,

1470
01:10:20,479 --> 01:10:24,120
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01:10:24,200 --> 01:10:27,559
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1472
01:10:27,640 --> 01:10:30,600
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1473
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1474
01:10:33,240 --> 01:10:36,040
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1475
01:10:36,120 --> 01:10:38,439
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1476
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1477
01:10:41,080 --> 01:10:43,559
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01:10:43,640 --> 01:10:46,840
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1479
01:10:46,920 --> 01:10:48,840
Speaker 5: much for listening. Let's get back to the show.

1480
01:10:50,160 --> 01:10:52,080
Speaker 2: Let's go to the best of the rest, which are

1481
01:10:52,120 --> 01:10:55,040
Speaker 2: the games we did not discuss in any other segments.

1482
01:10:55,439 --> 01:11:00,000
Speaker 2: All right, Let's start with the Texans and the Dolphins.

1483
01:11:00,040 --> 01:11:02,719
Speaker 2: Texans are six and a half point underdogs, the total

1484
01:11:03,600 --> 01:11:07,400
Speaker 2: is forty six and stuck like I know you were

1485
01:11:07,560 --> 01:11:10,200
Speaker 2: down on the Dolphins coming into the year. I was

1486
01:11:10,280 --> 01:11:12,600
Speaker 2: kind of didn't know what to expect. I don't like

1487
01:11:12,640 --> 01:11:15,000
Speaker 2: this Dolphins team at all. I could absolutely see them

1488
01:11:15,040 --> 01:11:17,799
Speaker 2: losing to the Texans team. I mean maybe you feel different,

1489
01:11:17,880 --> 01:11:22,439
Speaker 2: but I I couldn't weigh points with the Dolphins the total.

1490
01:11:22,479 --> 01:11:23,920
Speaker 2: I mean, it is what it is. The Texans haven't

1491
01:11:23,920 --> 01:11:25,840
Speaker 2: been scoring with Davis Mills, but looks like they're getting

1492
01:11:25,840 --> 01:11:29,360
Speaker 2: Tyrod back, so they've been a different team with Tyrod.

1493
01:11:29,720 --> 01:11:33,200
Speaker 2: I have a sneaking suspicion that Texans are in this game.

1494
01:11:34,720 --> 01:11:37,160
Speaker 3: I actually don't think Town's gonna fly. But we'll say

1495
01:11:38,040 --> 01:11:39,400
Speaker 3: it's a hamstring.

1496
01:11:38,960 --> 01:11:40,800
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, it's yeah.

1497
01:11:40,800 --> 01:11:44,600
Speaker 3: So it's Wes and have one win and there's a

1498
01:11:44,680 --> 01:11:46,400
Speaker 3: bye next week, So.

1499
01:11:48,160 --> 01:11:48,639
Speaker 2: That's true.

1500
01:11:48,760 --> 01:11:51,120
Speaker 3: That's That's what's intriguing to me here, is that there's

1501
01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:54,559
Speaker 3: a like that by factor is if it's even close,

1502
01:11:54,600 --> 01:11:57,679
Speaker 3: I think that they're gonna say we're not gonna play.

1503
01:11:57,960 --> 01:12:00,439
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean the Dolphins are terrible. Yeah, I

1504
01:12:00,479 --> 01:12:02,960
Speaker 3: mean I make this line right around seven, I would

1505
01:12:03,000 --> 01:12:06,120
Speaker 3: bring it down a tad more. I'm like assuming fifty

1506
01:12:06,120 --> 01:12:09,680
Speaker 3: to fifty chance that either Mills or Taylor goes. I

1507
01:12:09,680 --> 01:12:12,360
Speaker 3: think I would bring this down to like six if

1508
01:12:12,840 --> 01:12:16,839
Speaker 3: Taylor plays, And you know, I made an eight assuming

1509
01:12:16,880 --> 01:12:20,519
Speaker 3: that Mills was playing. The Dolphins. Two has been looking

1510
01:12:20,560 --> 01:12:22,600
Speaker 3: a little better last week. The Dolphins have doubt with

1511
01:12:22,600 --> 01:12:25,040
Speaker 3: a lot of injuries. Their secondary now is healthy. You

1512
01:12:25,080 --> 01:12:26,920
Speaker 3: could still run on them. Their front seven has been

1513
01:12:26,960 --> 01:12:29,960
Speaker 3: really disappointing. But the Texans can't run the ball at all,

1514
01:12:30,240 --> 01:12:34,240
Speaker 3: and the Texans defense doesn't offer much resistance. So I

1515
01:12:34,320 --> 01:12:37,920
Speaker 3: don't know. I think that the Dolphins should be able

1516
01:12:37,960 --> 01:12:40,719
Speaker 3: to get on the right side of things this week.

1517
01:12:41,680 --> 01:12:44,479
Speaker 3: But this is a game I will not be wagering on.

1518
01:12:44,600 --> 01:12:45,320
Speaker 3: I'll tell you that.

1519
01:12:46,520 --> 01:12:48,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean maybe if this line was you know,

1520
01:12:49,000 --> 01:12:51,200
Speaker 2: in the four range or three like, because I mean,

1521
01:12:51,200 --> 01:12:54,080
Speaker 2: you looking at this Dolphins team. I know they velt

1522
01:12:54,120 --> 01:12:57,200
Speaker 2: with injuries. I know they almost made the playoffs last year.

1523
01:12:57,280 --> 01:12:59,439
Speaker 2: I know two has been out for some games. But

1524
01:13:00,080 --> 01:13:02,599
Speaker 2: they beat the Patriots by one point. Their only win

1525
01:13:02,800 --> 01:13:05,240
Speaker 2: is by one point. We know one score games, they're

1526
01:13:05,280 --> 01:13:07,840
Speaker 2: not really too predictive. But I beat the Patriots by

1527
01:13:07,840 --> 01:13:10,120
Speaker 2: one point. They get a gift fumbled late in that game.

1528
01:13:10,640 --> 01:13:14,120
Speaker 2: They lose the next seven. They lose to the Falcons.

1529
01:13:14,400 --> 01:13:18,160
Speaker 2: With Tua playing well, they lose to the Jaguars with

1530
01:13:18,320 --> 01:13:22,320
Speaker 2: Tua playing well, so can they lose to the Texans

1531
01:13:22,479 --> 01:13:26,760
Speaker 2: even with Davis Mills? I think so? I mean, you

1532
01:13:26,800 --> 01:13:28,880
Speaker 2: know what I mean, like if Tua is playing, if

1533
01:13:28,920 --> 01:13:31,680
Speaker 2: we saw a peak Tua and we did see peak too,

1534
01:13:31,720 --> 01:13:33,599
Speaker 2: I mean he threw he was like the leading fantasy

1535
01:13:33,640 --> 01:13:37,120
Speaker 2: quarterback for those two weeks Jaguars Falcons games. We saw

1536
01:13:37,200 --> 01:13:42,559
Speaker 2: peak Tua and you're still losing to two bottom five

1537
01:13:42,800 --> 01:13:47,360
Speaker 2: NFL teams, then, like, I just think this line is

1538
01:13:47,439 --> 01:13:50,640
Speaker 2: I just think the Twina's absurd. Honestly, I have just

1539
01:13:50,720 --> 01:13:53,880
Speaker 2: closer to four. I have zero faith in the Dolphins,

1540
01:13:54,960 --> 01:13:57,240
Speaker 2: you know, blowing them out. I think it still ends

1541
01:13:57,280 --> 01:13:59,280
Speaker 2: up being like a field goal game. You know, I

1542
01:13:59,280 --> 01:14:01,800
Speaker 2: could be wrong. You know, maybe they did Texas just

1543
01:14:01,840 --> 01:14:04,080
Speaker 2: do Texans things. Davis Mills, you can't really trust him,

1544
01:14:04,120 --> 01:14:06,320
Speaker 2: but I mean, this Dolphins seems bad. And there's been

1545
01:14:06,360 --> 01:14:09,000
Speaker 2: word that Flores has like lost the locker room to

1546
01:14:09,160 --> 01:14:10,800
Speaker 2: what came out and said, I don't feel wanted, and

1547
01:14:10,840 --> 01:14:13,200
Speaker 2: then you know, reverted back. I know they played a

1548
01:14:13,200 --> 01:14:15,680
Speaker 2: good defense, but kind of reverted back to who he

1549
01:14:15,800 --> 01:14:18,000
Speaker 2: was before. I mean, I just I don't think you

1550
01:14:18,040 --> 01:14:20,320
Speaker 2: want any parts of this. I agree. I think it's

1551
01:14:20,600 --> 01:14:21,960
Speaker 2: I don't know if you bet on the Texans, but

1552
01:14:22,120 --> 01:14:24,479
Speaker 2: definitely don't bet on the Dolphins. I guess what I'm saying.

1553
01:14:24,479 --> 01:14:27,000
Speaker 2: It's kind of like they're almost at urban Meyer status

1554
01:14:27,000 --> 01:14:29,640
Speaker 2: for me at this point. All right, And speaking of

1555
01:14:29,960 --> 01:14:35,320
Speaker 2: urban Meyer, Bill's fourteen and a half point road favorites

1556
01:14:36,080 --> 01:14:38,760
Speaker 2: at the Jaguars. This is what it's come to with

1557
01:14:39,000 --> 01:14:44,320
Speaker 2: urban Meyer given fourteen and a half or at home

1558
01:14:44,840 --> 01:14:47,599
Speaker 2: and the totals forty eight and a half. I need

1559
01:14:47,640 --> 01:14:49,599
Speaker 2: I'm not bet on the Jaguars, are you?

1560
01:14:50,040 --> 01:14:52,200
Speaker 3: No? I can't here. I mean it's I think the

1561
01:14:52,240 --> 01:14:55,880
Speaker 3: line is attack too high. So from like, if you

1562
01:14:55,920 --> 01:14:58,280
Speaker 3: made me better, I would probably bet the Jags over

1563
01:14:58,320 --> 01:15:02,920
Speaker 3: two touchdowns at home. But the Bills are like a

1564
01:15:02,960 --> 01:15:05,960
Speaker 3: really bad team to fade as a big favorite because

1565
01:15:05,960 --> 01:15:08,200
Speaker 3: of the way they play, and they're gonna throw, and

1566
01:15:08,240 --> 01:15:10,679
Speaker 3: they're gonna they're just gonna kind of keep their foot

1567
01:15:10,680 --> 01:15:12,799
Speaker 3: on the gas. You saw the last week the miracle

1568
01:15:12,840 --> 01:15:15,759
Speaker 3: cover against the Dolphins. But they're gonna throw it a lot,

1569
01:15:15,920 --> 01:15:18,720
Speaker 3: They're gonna spread you out. The Jags are incapable of

1570
01:15:18,760 --> 01:15:23,599
Speaker 3: stopping any competent passing offense, so it's hard to see

1571
01:15:23,640 --> 01:15:26,160
Speaker 3: them really getting many stops, and the Bill's defense is

1572
01:15:26,160 --> 01:15:29,160
Speaker 3: playing at an elite level, so you know, I think

1573
01:15:29,200 --> 01:15:31,559
Speaker 3: if the line's a little too high. But there's many,

1574
01:15:31,600 --> 01:15:33,280
Speaker 3: many reasons why I do not want to back the

1575
01:15:33,320 --> 01:15:37,200
Speaker 3: Jags here. So this is another pass for the ugly game, ugly, ugly.

1576
01:15:37,040 --> 01:15:39,519
Speaker 2: Ugly, and the Bills are up to first and pressure

1577
01:15:39,560 --> 01:15:42,400
Speaker 2: rate on top of everything else they have going for them,

1578
01:15:42,600 --> 01:15:45,360
Speaker 2: they are now getting pressure at in a wheat level.

1579
01:15:45,600 --> 01:15:47,960
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence f fourteen to one, maybe fourteen to one

1580
01:15:48,000 --> 01:15:50,000
Speaker 3: super Bowl future, it's my only one. Hopefully we can

1581
01:15:50,040 --> 01:15:51,520
Speaker 3: get their Bills mafia.

1582
01:15:51,880 --> 01:15:56,560
Speaker 2: I like it. And some interesting numbers here the Jaguars,

1583
01:15:56,960 --> 01:15:59,479
Speaker 2: you know, obviously the market hasn't been you know, to

1584
01:15:59,600 --> 01:16:02,479
Speaker 2: throw with. They're two and five against the spread, they

1585
01:16:02,520 --> 01:16:05,719
Speaker 2: failed to cover by an average of seven point four

1586
01:16:05,800 --> 01:16:09,200
Speaker 2: points per game. That's second worst behind only Miami, which

1587
01:16:09,240 --> 01:16:10,840
Speaker 2: is why I say you can't bet on Miami here.

1588
01:16:11,200 --> 01:16:15,600
Speaker 2: But on the other side, the Bills are best in

1589
01:16:15,640 --> 01:16:18,080
Speaker 2: the league. They're beating the spread by an average of

1590
01:16:18,200 --> 01:16:23,240
Speaker 2: nine point four points per game. So I just don't

1591
01:16:23,280 --> 01:16:24,840
Speaker 2: think the book can make this line high. And if

1592
01:16:24,840 --> 01:16:26,840
Speaker 2: I know, it's a road game, so you don't want

1593
01:16:26,880 --> 01:16:29,439
Speaker 2: to get to like that seventeen eighteen, and I do

1594
01:16:29,560 --> 01:16:31,559
Speaker 2: make it around fourteen and a half just you know,

1595
01:16:31,600 --> 01:16:32,600
Speaker 2: in the model.

1596
01:16:32,640 --> 01:16:32,800
Speaker 3: But.

1597
01:16:34,280 --> 01:16:36,360
Speaker 2: I mean the Bills have their flat spot last week.

1598
01:16:36,360 --> 01:16:38,360
Speaker 2: This is like, you know, we talked about this with

1599
01:16:38,400 --> 01:16:40,519
Speaker 2: the Rams, Like they had their flat spot against the lines,

1600
01:16:40,520 --> 01:16:43,040
Speaker 2: and then they come out and they beat the Texans

1601
01:16:43,040 --> 01:16:44,679
Speaker 2: so bad that they end up sitting on the starters

1602
01:16:44,720 --> 01:16:46,240
Speaker 2: and still almost lose the cover. I think they did

1603
01:16:46,400 --> 01:16:48,599
Speaker 2: lose the cover depending on where the where you got

1604
01:16:48,600 --> 01:16:53,960
Speaker 2: the number, but like this is probably the game where

1605
01:16:54,040 --> 01:16:55,960
Speaker 2: Buffalo just like you said, keeps their foot on the

1606
01:16:55,960 --> 01:16:58,720
Speaker 2: gas and cruises because they had their flat spot last

1607
01:16:58,760 --> 01:17:01,960
Speaker 2: week and still cover the still covered with the like

1608
01:17:02,000 --> 01:17:04,920
Speaker 2: the flattest performance I've seen this side of like Pittsburgh

1609
01:17:04,960 --> 01:17:06,800
Speaker 2: when they came out and that that was it that

1610
01:17:06,800 --> 01:17:09,240
Speaker 2: second half against Pittsburg where they just get absolutely nothing

1611
01:17:09,960 --> 01:17:13,400
Speaker 2: for like the entire half, like and they still covered

1612
01:17:13,880 --> 01:17:17,439
Speaker 2: a double digit spread. So yeah, this is like if

1613
01:17:17,479 --> 01:17:20,160
Speaker 2: I just if this was like an ugly six pack card.

1614
01:17:20,960 --> 01:17:24,559
Speaker 2: It's not. It's actually a pretty good one. But if

1615
01:17:24,560 --> 01:17:26,040
Speaker 2: this is like one of those ugly six pack cards,

1616
01:17:26,040 --> 01:17:27,200
Speaker 2: like a couple of weeks ago and I went, oh,

1617
01:17:27,280 --> 01:17:28,920
Speaker 2: in three, I would have probably just taken the Bills

1618
01:17:28,920 --> 01:17:30,840
Speaker 2: mind fourteen and a half and just like you know,

1619
01:17:31,080 --> 01:17:32,960
Speaker 2: just like okay, they're probably gonna blow them out more

1620
01:17:33,000 --> 01:17:33,439
Speaker 2: of it than not.

1621
01:17:33,560 --> 01:17:33,640
Speaker 3: Tho.

1622
01:17:33,760 --> 01:17:36,280
Speaker 2: Like I just I see no hope in this Daguars team.

1623
01:17:37,320 --> 01:17:39,240
Speaker 2: But that's gonna do it for the best of the rest.

1624
01:17:39,600 --> 01:17:42,080
Speaker 2: Let's finish it up with our Survivor Pool pick of

1625
01:17:42,080 --> 01:17:43,840
Speaker 2: the week.

1626
01:17:49,200 --> 01:17:51,840
Speaker 1: It's the Survivor Pool Pick of the week.

1627
01:17:53,720 --> 01:17:55,679
Speaker 2: All right. I think I know where you're going this week,

1628
01:17:55,800 --> 01:17:57,840
Speaker 2: and I mean there might be a chance for me

1629
01:17:57,880 --> 01:17:59,599
Speaker 2: to win this year if you're going where I think

1630
01:17:59,600 --> 01:17:59,960
Speaker 2: you're going.

1631
01:18:00,680 --> 01:18:08,200
Speaker 3: Yep, I'm going with the Miami Dolphins against the Houston Texans.

1632
01:18:08,479 --> 01:18:13,679
Speaker 3: The look, I mean, I look at who is out

1633
01:18:13,680 --> 01:18:16,760
Speaker 3: there this week, and when you know, I thought about

1634
01:18:16,760 --> 01:18:19,400
Speaker 3: the Ravens. But I'm trying to keep I'm trying to

1635
01:18:19,400 --> 01:18:22,360
Speaker 3: just get as far as I can by keeping the

1636
01:18:22,400 --> 01:18:25,479
Speaker 3: best teams in my back pocket. And I've gotten there

1637
01:18:25,680 --> 01:18:28,080
Speaker 3: so far a lot of high wire acts. This one

1638
01:18:28,160 --> 01:18:30,800
Speaker 3: might be another one, but I'm okay with going down

1639
01:18:30,840 --> 01:18:34,120
Speaker 3: with the Dolphins here at home against the Texans close

1640
01:18:34,160 --> 01:18:36,880
Speaker 3: to a seven point favorite. I'm never going to use

1641
01:18:36,920 --> 01:18:40,439
Speaker 3: the Dolphins again. I know that for sure. You know

1642
01:18:40,439 --> 01:18:44,240
Speaker 3: they host the Jets. Who knows, Mike White Nation. That

1643
01:18:44,280 --> 01:18:47,360
Speaker 3: would be the only other spot December nineteenth, the only

1644
01:18:47,560 --> 01:18:49,880
Speaker 3: possible one that you would ever even think about using

1645
01:18:49,920 --> 01:18:52,920
Speaker 3: the Dolphins the rest of the way. So yeah, Dolphins

1646
01:18:53,040 --> 01:18:55,200
Speaker 3: two a time baby. And by the way, I went

1647
01:18:55,240 --> 01:18:59,200
Speaker 3: down in almost every what was the game? I went

1648
01:18:59,240 --> 01:19:04,960
Speaker 3: down in like all of my Survivor pools because the Dolphins. Yes,

1649
01:19:05,800 --> 01:19:12,280
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers, forty three to seventeen, and that

1650
01:19:12,479 --> 01:19:15,920
Speaker 3: was like week five or six is I was devastated.

1651
01:19:15,960 --> 01:19:18,840
Speaker 3: I don't know where that forwards came from, but they

1652
01:19:18,920 --> 01:19:20,559
Speaker 3: ended up the forty niners were at home. They lost

1653
01:19:20,600 --> 01:19:24,760
Speaker 3: by like twenty eight points, twenty six points. But yeah,

1654
01:19:24,760 --> 01:19:27,280
Speaker 3: I'm scared. There's a team that I sold, I mean

1655
01:19:27,360 --> 01:19:29,040
Speaker 3: low on all year. I have their season win to

1656
01:19:29,120 --> 01:19:32,320
Speaker 3: it under. I hate them. I hope, I hope Tywn

1657
01:19:32,360 --> 01:19:34,720
Speaker 3: doesn't doesn't play, but I have to do it. There's

1658
01:19:34,760 --> 01:19:38,200
Speaker 3: no other team I really can justify going with.

1659
01:19:38,840 --> 01:19:41,120
Speaker 2: That's gonna be a great SoundBite whether they win or lose,

1660
01:19:41,160 --> 01:19:43,040
Speaker 2: it's just gonna be like that, I hate them. That

1661
01:19:43,160 --> 01:19:46,000
Speaker 2: was perfect. I'm gonna go with the I'm gonna go

1662
01:19:46,040 --> 01:19:48,400
Speaker 2: with the coach here. Thursday night. We talk about it

1663
01:19:48,760 --> 01:19:51,960
Speaker 2: short week, they're the better team. It's tough. Thursday night

1664
01:19:52,040 --> 01:19:54,960
Speaker 2: favorites by a touchdown on more are forty two and

1665
01:19:55,040 --> 01:19:59,040
Speaker 2: twenty two against the spread. That's against the spread sixty

1666
01:19:59,040 --> 01:19:59,639
Speaker 2: six percent.

1667
01:20:00,240 --> 01:20:00,320
Speaker 3: Uh.

1668
01:20:00,520 --> 01:20:03,960
Speaker 2: You know, since Thursday night football started back up again

1669
01:20:04,120 --> 01:20:07,000
Speaker 2: in our bet Labs database, so that's just against the spread.

1670
01:20:07,120 --> 01:20:09,720
Speaker 2: So I like the Coats to get back on the

1671
01:20:09,800 --> 01:20:11,720
Speaker 2: right side. I think the Jets maybe they could keep

1672
01:20:11,760 --> 01:20:14,960
Speaker 2: it a little closer than than we think, but you

1673
01:20:15,000 --> 01:20:16,800
Speaker 2: know they could. We could also have a blow out here.

1674
01:20:16,800 --> 01:20:18,760
Speaker 2: Mean the Jets were down thirty one to twenty. You

1675
01:20:18,800 --> 01:20:21,920
Speaker 2: know wait in that game against Cincinnati. So it's not like,

1676
01:20:22,320 --> 01:20:24,960
Speaker 2: you know, this team is suddenly just you know, knock it.

1677
01:20:24,960 --> 01:20:27,799
Speaker 2: It's like this David knocking off Golias all of a sudden.

1678
01:20:28,520 --> 01:20:30,400
Speaker 2: You know, they could they'll get lucky here and there.

1679
01:20:30,439 --> 01:20:32,800
Speaker 2: But you know we saw it after the Titans win.

1680
01:20:32,880 --> 01:20:35,120
Speaker 2: They came out and they lost a couple after that one.

1681
01:20:35,200 --> 01:20:37,320
Speaker 2: So going with the Colts here, I think this might

1682
01:20:37,320 --> 01:20:39,760
Speaker 2: be my best chance of the year. If I'm going

1683
01:20:39,840 --> 01:20:42,000
Speaker 2: to beat you in survivor. This might be it right here.

1684
01:20:42,080 --> 01:20:44,080
Speaker 2: Either that or we just both go down. That could

1685
01:20:44,120 --> 01:20:45,080
Speaker 2: also very well happen.

1686
01:20:45,479 --> 01:20:47,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't cut. I can't got out fading Mike

1687
01:20:47,600 --> 01:20:51,559
Speaker 3: White and last week, and and I will say that

1688
01:20:51,600 --> 01:20:54,360
Speaker 3: I thought about the Colts, but I hate Thursday Night football.

1689
01:20:54,720 --> 01:20:56,720
Speaker 3: The Colts by the Jags at home next week, So

1690
01:20:56,840 --> 01:20:59,280
Speaker 3: that is my spot that I have the Colts circled for.

1691
01:20:59,600 --> 01:21:01,200
Speaker 3: So if I do make it, I'll have the Colts.

1692
01:21:01,240 --> 01:21:03,120
Speaker 3: I'll wait till next week to see where you end

1693
01:21:03,200 --> 01:21:05,439
Speaker 3: up going, since you burnt the Colts and hopefully I'm

1694
01:21:05,479 --> 01:21:06,679
Speaker 3: still alive to use them.

1695
01:21:07,000 --> 01:21:08,719
Speaker 2: You know, the Jaguars are going to beat the Coats

1696
01:21:08,720 --> 01:21:11,720
Speaker 2: next week, like we fully know the jack Like that's

1697
01:21:11,760 --> 01:21:14,280
Speaker 2: a that's a perfect Colts like wet down spot. Like

1698
01:21:14,360 --> 01:21:16,160
Speaker 2: they'll come back beat the Jets that everyone thought there's

1699
01:21:16,160 --> 01:21:18,759
Speaker 2: season was over after they Tennessee. Tennessee will get hammered

1700
01:21:18,760 --> 01:21:21,880
Speaker 2: by the Rams. The Colts will beat the Jets. They're like, Okay,

1701
01:21:21,920 --> 01:21:23,240
Speaker 2: maybe we have a chance. And then they'll go loose

1702
01:21:23,240 --> 01:21:25,280
Speaker 2: to the Jaguars calling it now, calling it now, but

1703
01:21:26,000 --> 01:21:27,120
Speaker 2: we'll see what happens.

1704
01:21:27,439 --> 01:21:29,400
Speaker 3: Uh, this is I'm putting this out in the universe.

1705
01:21:30,640 --> 01:21:35,400
Speaker 2: This is my first positive thing I've said about the Jags.

1706
01:21:35,400 --> 01:21:38,760
Speaker 2: You're gonna tell me to stop? Oh man, all right,

1707
01:21:39,600 --> 01:21:42,320
Speaker 2: I was going to do it. For our Week nine

1708
01:21:42,800 --> 01:21:46,320
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast. You can follow all of our picks

1709
01:21:46,360 --> 01:21:49,400
Speaker 2: in the award winning Action Network at just search for

1710
01:21:49,560 --> 01:21:53,920
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack in the follow feature. You can find

1711
01:21:53,920 --> 01:21:57,479
Speaker 2: Stucky on Twitter at Stucky two. You can find me

1712
01:21:57,560 --> 01:22:00,400
Speaker 2: on Twitter at Chris Raybon, and you you can find

1713
01:22:00,439 --> 01:22:03,719
Speaker 2: us at those same handles in the Action Network app,

1714
01:22:03,720 --> 01:22:06,719
Speaker 2: where you can follow all of our bets and track yours.

1715
01:22:06,960 --> 01:22:10,559
Speaker 2: Check out actionnetwork dot com for all of our write

1716
01:22:10,600 --> 01:22:13,360
Speaker 2: up Stucky Night do a primetime write up every week.

1717
01:22:13,479 --> 01:22:18,280
Speaker 2: Fantasywabs dot com for our DFS, content tools and models

1718
01:22:18,360 --> 01:22:19,360
Speaker 2: until next week.

1719
01:22:19,800 --> 01:22:26,440
Speaker 3: Let's get this money.