1 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:06,040 Speaker 1: From the Bloomberg Interacted Berger Studios. This is Bloomberg day 2 00:00:06,040 --> 00:00:10,039 Speaker 1: Break for Wednesday, April fifth. Coming up today, Donald Trump 3 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: pleads not guilty to thirty four felonies and fires back. 4 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 1: In a primetime speech, a top Fed official makes the 5 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: case for rates above five percent for longer and ubs 6 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 1: addresses challenges and the timeline for integrating with credit Sueee. 7 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 1: Wisconsin voters delivered a shake up to the state Supreme Court. Blush. 8 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: Ukraine's president speaks to US governors on the Russian invasion. 9 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: I'm Michael barn Or Ahead, I'm John stashtawon sports on 10 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: the long night for the Mets in Milwaukee. The Yankees 11 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 1: lost to the Phillies, the Nets lost, the Devils won. 12 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: That's all straight Ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the business 13 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: news you need disturn your day, and just one fifteen 14 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: minute podcast each pointing on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg Business 15 00:00:54,600 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: Appen everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning, I'm Nathan 16 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 1: Hager and I'm Karon Moscow. Here are the stories we're 17 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 1: following today. We begin this morning with the latest developments 18 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 1: on the arraignment of former President Donald Trump. Bloomberg's John 19 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 1: Tucker begins our team coverage this morning in New York. 20 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 1: Good morning, John Nathan. Donald Trump became the first former 21 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 1: president to be criminally charged after leaving the White House 22 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: after being fingerprinted. Trump sat at the defense table with 23 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: his hands clashed in front of him, and spoke briefly 24 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: several times, including when he loudly proclaimed not guilty. He 25 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 1: faces thirty four felony accounts of falsifying business records related 26 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 1: to a hush money payment made in the final days 27 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 1: of the twenty sixteen election. The charges brought against Trump 28 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: by Manhattan da Alvin Bragg. This case today is one 29 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 1: with allegations, like so many of our white collar cases, 30 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 1: allegations as someone live again and again to protect their 31 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: interests and evade the laws to which we are all 32 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: held accountable. The thirty four accounts are usually misdemeanors under 33 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: New York law, but Bragg charged them as class E 34 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: felonies because he says they were committed to violate state 35 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: and federal election law. State Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchant 36 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: told Trump he's expected to appear in court and if 37 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,519 Speaker 1: a dozen a trial could proceed without him. Live in 38 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 1: New York. I'm John Tucker Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, John, thanks, 39 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 1: So the former president is firing back against the charges. 40 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: Trump is denouncing the indictment as politically motivated. Let me 41 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: get the details Live at the Bloomberg Steve Rappaport, Steve, 42 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: good morning, Good morning, Karen and Nathan. After a subdued 43 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: appearance in court, the former president was back in his 44 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: element last night. They can't beat us at the ballot box, 45 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: so they try and beat us through the law. Trump 46 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: telling supporters at Maralago the case about against him was 47 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: never about justice. This is a persecution, not an investigation. 48 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,639 Speaker 1: Trump also slammed prosecutor Alvin Bragg as a local failed 49 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 1: district attorney, and said Bragg is the real criminal for 50 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 1: leaking grand jury information. Live in New York, I'm Steve 51 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 1: Rappaportoomberg Daybreak. Okay, Steve, thanks well. The case against Trump 52 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: could pose a challenge for Manhattan's district attorney. That's according 53 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: to former prosecutor and judge Joshua Castenberg, who's now a 54 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 1: professor at the University of New Mexico Law School. He 55 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: says hush money payments are not typically a crime if 56 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: you're running for office. It's not necessarily a crime either. 57 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: But if you're using campaign money or you're filtering campaign 58 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 1: money to pay off someone and you're trying to show 59 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:31,079 Speaker 1: that it's a legitimate campaign expense, there is no legitimate 60 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: campaign expense related to money, and so therefore it's a crime. 61 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 1: University of New Mexico law professor Joshua Castenburg spoke with 62 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: our Carol Mass and Madison Mills on Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Catch 63 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: the show weekdays at three pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 64 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 1: or stream it live on Bloomberg Originals and YouTube. Well 65 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: politics are also front and center in Chicago this morning, 66 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: Nathan Voters in the Windy City have elected Brandon Johnson 67 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 1: as their next mayor. Johnson is a progressive who wants 68 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 1: to raise taxes on major corporations to boost the city's revenue. 69 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: Today the dream is alive, and so today we celebrate 70 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 1: the revival and the resurrection of the City of Chicago 71 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 1: and Brandon Johnson beat Cook County Commissioner Paul Vallis in 72 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,799 Speaker 1: a runoff, and Johnson claimed fifty one point four percent 73 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: of the vote to win the race. Turning to the 74 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: markets this morning, Karen Overnight Trading has focused on hawkish 75 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: comments from New Zealand and Australia's central banks, while back 76 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: here in the US we're also getting hawkish central bank 77 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: retoric from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. She says interest 78 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 1: rates should rise above five percent this year and stay 79 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: there for some time. I plan to remain diligent in 80 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 1: setting monetary policy, to return the economy to price stability 81 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: in a timely way, and to be judicious in balancing 82 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:51,799 Speaker 1: the risks so as to minimize the pain of that journey. 83 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: Cleveland FED President Loretta Mester says the central banks peak 84 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: rate will depend on how fast in fleation eas is 85 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: well in Europe. Today, Nathan Swiss banking remains in focus. 86 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 1: Credit Suis held its final shareholder meeting yesterday and today 87 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: UBS is holding its annual gathering. Bloomberg's Metis Cranny is 88 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: there and brings us details from the event. It's a 89 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:13,919 Speaker 1: very different tone to what you heard from Kredit suisis. 90 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 1: That was a language of contrition, a language of regret 91 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 1: and a deep explanation. Today, I think caliher the chairman 92 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: x Morganstani, is going to be all about setting a 93 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: tone for the Swiss nation. We are a bank for you. 94 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,040 Speaker 1: Is about convincing this nation that this is the right 95 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: and only dal because it is the only deal in time. 96 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 1: And Bloomberg's metis cranny. Reporting from Baso, where UBS chairman 97 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,839 Speaker 1: Colm Kelleher says the integration of Credit Suisse will likely 98 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 1: take three to four years. Banks around the world remain 99 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: in focus, Karen, And it turns out the biggest short 100 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: in the banking industry comes in the relatively tame financial 101 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:53,479 Speaker 1: center of Canada. Short sellers have up to their bearish 102 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: bets against Toronto Dominion Bank. They now have roughly three 103 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 1: point seven billion dollars on the line. Analyst point to 104 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 1: worries about TD's exposure to Canada's housing slowdown and the 105 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 1: banks steak in Charles Schwab TD shares, they're down about 106 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: twelve percent over the past two months. It's fifty two 107 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: degrees in New York. Cloudy this morning, some fog over 108 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: Long Island. Chance for a shower today on our wayniers 109 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 1: sixty degrees, more showers tonight, Early lows in the low fifties. 110 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: Time now to look at some of the other stories 111 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 1: making news in New York and around the world. With 112 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Michael Barr, Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan. Wisconsin 113 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: voters delivered a shake up to the state Supreme Court. 114 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 1: Liberal judge Jennet Proto Saywitz defeated Republican Daniel Kelly fifty 115 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 1: five point five percent forty five point five. Her win 116 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: will rebalance the court that had leaned conservative Proto Sawitz's 117 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 1: election comes as the court may face decisions on access 118 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 1: to abortion, legislative maps, and more. Speaking to supporters at 119 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:57,479 Speaker 1: her Milwaukee headquarters, pro To Saywitz said the state wanted 120 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: change in its highest court. They were ready to put 121 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 1: aside the partisanship and put aside the extremism, and to 122 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 1: have an impartial court in a court that makes decisions 123 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 1: based on the law, not on a political agenda. Kelly 124 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: spoke to supporters after his defeat, accusing his opponent of 125 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 1: running a dirty campaign. We've had this laid out plainly 126 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 1: for us. We could have the rule of law or 127 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 1: the rule of Janet, and the people of Wisconsin have 128 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: chosen the rule of Janets. Kelly went on to say 129 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: he did not have a worthy opponent to concede to 130 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 1: Ukrainian President of Voladimir's Lenski addressed a group of US 131 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: governors in a video call from kievs stressing the amount 132 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: of work it will take to help Ukraine recover from 133 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 1: Russia's invasion. Lensky said he believed the US would stand 134 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 1: with Ukraine and help with reconstruction. He also invited governors 135 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: who haven't yet visited his country. I invite you who 136 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:57,679 Speaker 1: have not yet been to Ukraine to visit our country 137 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: and to see that protecting our home, our people, is 138 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: protecting our common dream about freedom and dignity for every 139 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: human being, President Zalinski. Finally, they picked a hectic time 140 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 1: to get married. Happy couples in Manhattan who made plans 141 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 1: to tie the not yesterday'd likely had no idea what 142 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 1: else would be happening. Very close brides and grooms in 143 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: downtown Manhattan who headed to the courthouse were there at 144 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: the same time as the arrangement of former President Trump. 145 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: Outside the courthouse, Jericha Gara was in a white wedding 146 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: gown with two friends. Harley didn't know that on my 147 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: wedding date that Trump was actually going to be here 148 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 1: until last week, and I'm like, also, I'm going to 149 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 1: have a crop for myself down Dad o her courthouse 150 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: step wedding video will be full of police and demonstrators. 151 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by more 152 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 1: than twenty seven hundred jouralists, analysts, and over one hundred 153 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg. Say you 154 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 1: what you never forget your anniversary at that though, Thank you, Michael. 155 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 1: Time for the Bloomberg Sports update of Morney Johns Sesshawer. 156 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: Gad morning the eighthand a little improvement for the Mats. 157 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: They lost Monday in Milwaukee ten to nothing, and last 158 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 1: night it was nine to nothing. And that's what Max 159 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: Scherzer starting. He gave up three home runs in a row, 160 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 1: only the second time that's happened in Scherzer's career. It 161 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 1: came sixth inning and and inning later the Brewers Brian 162 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 1: Anderson and Garrett Mitchell, who had both homberdof Scherzer, went 163 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:29,559 Speaker 1: back to back against Met reliever Brooks Raley. Meanwhile, the 164 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 1: Mets haven't scored in the last twenty innings day game. 165 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 1: Today there's also one at the stadium that'll be Garrett 166 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: cole versus Aaron Noel. Last night, Phillies got their first 167 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 1: one of the season four to one. Yanks had only 168 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 1: four hits, one was a dj Lemayhew homer. They got 169 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: the time run to the plate in the bottom of 170 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: the night, but Josh Donaldson popped up at Barkley's Nets 171 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 1: lost to Minnesota one oh seven one h two, and 172 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,319 Speaker 1: when Miami won its game, they heat moved only a 173 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 1: game behind Brooklyn in the race to finish sixth. Avoid 174 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,439 Speaker 1: the play and the Sixers beat the Celtics, Joel m 175 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 1: Being scored fifty two. Explay tonight at Indiana Rangers host 176 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. The Devils in Newark got a hat trick 177 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: from Dawson Mercer, first of his career. They beat Pittsburgh 178 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 1: five to one. Carolina also won, so the Hurricane still 179 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: three points ahead in the division. The Master's Tea's off 180 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 1: tomorrow and Rory McElroy says that for one weekend anyway, 181 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: there's peace and harmony between the PGA guys and the 182 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,439 Speaker 1: ones that broke away to join the Live tour. This 183 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 1: week in this tournament is way bigger than any of that, 184 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: I feel, and it's just create that all the best 185 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: players in the world are together again for the first 186 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 1: time and what seems to be quite a while. Doddie Scheffler, 187 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 1: the defendee champ Tiger Woods. He's off tomorrow morning, twenty 188 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: six years after his first master's victory. John Stashatward Bloomberg 189 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:47,559 Speaker 1: Sports live from coast to coast, from New York to 190 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 1: San Francisco, Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Sirius Xam, 191 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:56,079 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg dot Com. This is 192 00:10:56,200 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar. Donald Trump is 193 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: now the first former US president to formally face criminal charges, 194 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: and he is now using the thirty four count felony 195 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: indictment of falsifying business records to re energize at twenty 196 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: twenty four bid to return to the White House. Former 197 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: President addressed his supporters at Marlago after entering his not 198 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: guilty plea. The only crime that I've committed is to 199 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: fearlessly defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it. 200 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 1: That was former President Donald Trump at marl Lago last 201 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 1: night following his appearance in Manhattan Court. And for more. 202 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:39,199 Speaker 1: We are pleased to be joined once again this morning 203 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 1: for a roundtable discussion with Terry Haynes, the founder of 204 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: Pangaea Policy and Greg Valier, chief US policy strategist at 205 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 1: AGF Investments. Gentlemen, it is great to get your time 206 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:51,959 Speaker 1: once again this morning. Greg, I will start with you 207 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:56,319 Speaker 1: your reaction to the criminal case against the former president 208 00:11:56,400 --> 00:12:01,320 Speaker 1: and its potential impact on this twenty twenty four race. Well, 209 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: good morning, Nathan. I think, first and foremost, as we 210 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 1: all suspected, it's a weak case. I recommend the lead 211 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 1: editorial this morning in the Wall Street Journal. It talks 212 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: about how just how weak the case is. The other 213 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: big takeaway has to be Trump's surge in the polls 214 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: of Republicans. I don't think he's going to do very 215 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: well in the general election, but among Republicans he's made 216 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 1: a lot of progress. Terry, you've talked before about how 217 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: you've considered this case weak as well, even before we 218 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 1: got the charges unsealed. Now that we have seen them 219 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: and gotten the indictment and the statement of facts from 220 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:43,599 Speaker 1: da Alvin Bragg, is that still your contention that this 221 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: case is weak? Very much so, Nathan, and good morning. 222 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,079 Speaker 1: My im mediate reaction when I read the indictment and 223 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 1: the attached statement of fact was that it's really politicized 224 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:01,080 Speaker 1: spaghetti sort of spaghetti justice. Really, you throw a bunch 225 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: of stuff up on the wall, and you see what sticks. 226 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 1: You throw thirty four charges up, hoping to get at 227 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: least one for either a conviction or some sort of plea, 228 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: which I have very much doubt that mister Bragg gets. 229 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:21,839 Speaker 1: You know it is it's it's a little crazy to 230 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:25,079 Speaker 1: go after a case like this, not only that it 231 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 1: makes the other potential prosecutions on the more important issues 232 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: on the documents and on January sixth, that much more difficult. 233 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 1: I was pleased to see that the Bloomberg editorial page 234 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: agree with my contention there too. The reason for that 235 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 1: is there will now be a higher standard in those 236 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:45,839 Speaker 1: prosecutions so that they're not also vulnerable to criticism of 237 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 1: politicized prosecutions. They're going to have to really have an 238 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 1: overwhelming evidentury layout in order to beat back the charges 239 00:13:55,679 --> 00:14:00,320 Speaker 1: that anything in those two areas is politicized. We did, 240 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 1: of course, here from the District Attorney in Manhattan, Alvin Bragg. 241 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:08,599 Speaker 1: He was addressing some of the questions about whether he 242 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: would have brought this case if it were anyone other 243 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:15,839 Speaker 1: than former President Donald Trump. That's something that the former 244 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 1: president's lawyers have been arguing as well. Here's what Alvin 245 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 1: Bragg had to say an answer to that, thirty four 246 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 1: false statements made to cover up other crimes. These are 247 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: felony crimes in New York State, no matter who you are. 248 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 1: Greg Valieri's making the case that the former president falsified 249 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 1: these business records to boost his twenty sixteen campaign in 250 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 1: an illegal matter. What about that, Well, he may have 251 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 1: and I think Bragg may have a good case if 252 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 1: he is seeking some kind of punishment for misdemeanors when 253 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 1: it comes to felonies, though I just don't see it. 254 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 1: I don't see the case being made by Brag on 255 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: that front. Again, The Law Street Journalist Morning has a 256 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 1: good piece on this, and I think that, yeah, a 257 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: lot of what Trump did is it was illegal, but 258 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 1: it didn't rise to the standard of a felony. And 259 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: it's a case as well that's led to jail time 260 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 1: for the former president's one time lawyer, Michael Cohen Terry Haynes. 261 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 1: As for that, what's the possibility that we could see 262 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 1: this case move forward a judge to bring it to 263 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 1: trial and potentially put the president in some legal jeopardy 264 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: here heading very close to next year's November election. Well, 265 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 1: that's entirely possible. Sure, you know, there's everyone notes there 266 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: won't even be another hearing in this matter until the 267 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 1: December of this year. So whatever else you've got unless 268 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: the judge outright dismisses the charges, and you know there's 269 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 1: more than a trailer risk of that. You know, that's 270 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 1: not inconceivable at all. Uh, you know this thing will 271 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: end up going to trial sometime during the primary season. 272 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: You know that. Frankly, it helps I think helps make 273 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 1: my contention that Trump fatigue and the increasing Republican desire, 274 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: Republican voter desire to want to have a candidate that 275 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 1: pushes Trump policies but doesn't have Trump baggage. Uh, you know, 276 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: probably intensifies to some degree. Is that how this play? Yeah, sure, 277 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 1: go right ahead. Yeah, let me just make this point. 278 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: I think that there is a wildcard, and that wildcard 279 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 1: is that Trump says something really outrageous, which he's been 280 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 1: known to do. It could wind up getting him in 281 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 1: trouble with the judge. It could wind up with him 282 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: getting slapped with some kind of censure. I don't I 283 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: don't rule that out at all. That's the wild card. 284 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 1: Of course, we all know about the three upcoming cases 285 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 1: that probably will lead to indictments. But I think Trump's 286 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,199 Speaker 1: own lawyers are advising him right now to keep your 287 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: rhetoric cool, don't overdo it rhetorically because that could get 288 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 1: us in more trouble. Well, I got to ask you, Greg, 289 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: did that wildcard get opened up last night with the 290 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 1: speech that a former president Trump gave. He really did 291 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 1: go after the DA Alvin Bragg. He's called the judge 292 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:27,639 Speaker 1: in this case a Trump hater. Yeah, any Trump has 293 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 1: gone after their families, and I mean it's typical Trump overreach. 294 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 1: That's Donald Trump's style. But he's been admonished by the 295 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,560 Speaker 1: judge to cease on that, and it's going to be 296 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 1: difficult to discipline him. Yeah, to say the very least. 297 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:43,920 Speaker 1: I'm sure we're speaking with Greg valier Or, chief US 298 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: policy strategist at AGF Investments and Terry Haynes, the founder 299 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 1: of Pangaea Policy. I got to get your take as well, Terry, 300 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: on what we heard last night from the former president 301 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:59,360 Speaker 1: vigorously going after the judge and the DA and defending 302 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: not just himself saying the only crime he's committed is 303 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 1: fearlessly defending the nation from those who try to destroy it. 304 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,399 Speaker 1: The kind of language we've heard from the president in 305 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,920 Speaker 1: the past. Did that language go too far or is 306 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:16,639 Speaker 1: he raining it in? I think I don't think he 307 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 1: rained it in necessarily. But you know, what he's doing 308 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,200 Speaker 1: is making the direct what I think of as the 309 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:27,959 Speaker 1: context case to supporters and other potentials and those who 310 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 1: might potentially support him, you know, in the broader Trump context. 311 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:37,360 Speaker 1: And this overlaps to some extent with what the Republicans 312 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 1: think generally, particularly those who are Tump supporters, is you know, 313 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:46,159 Speaker 1: you've got a politicized prosecution in New York City, which is, 314 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: to them the supposed source of mean, much of the 315 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: country problem, much of the country's problems makes the case 316 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 1: for Trump as well as other Republican candidates. But the 317 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:02,959 Speaker 1: context is for them is look bigger national scandals go unpunished. 318 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: You know, where's the where's the payback for you know, Trump, Russia, 319 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 1: US law enforcement media scandals. Uh, you know, the crazy 320 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 1: way that we had to deal with the three years 321 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 1: of COVID, Where's the where's the payback? On Biden family issues? 322 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 1: On inflation on out of control fiscal spending. The you know, 323 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:30,880 Speaker 1: the that context to Republican voters, uh makes the makes 324 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: the Trump indictment in this context look particularly laughable. It's like, Okay, 325 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 1: you're going to go after that guy, you know, in 326 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 1: some cases our guy, uh for this for relatively small things, 327 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: things that most presidential candidates end up doing. This idea 328 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 1: that uh, presidential candidates uh cover up less than flattery 329 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 1: information you know, didn't start with Trump, of course, but 330 00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:58,680 Speaker 1: you know, all this bigger stuff we're just going to 331 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 1: sweep under the rug. That energizes Republican voters. It sounds 332 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,359 Speaker 1: like it energizes as well a lot of what's happening 333 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:10,199 Speaker 1: already on Capitol Hill with the House Republicans opening up 334 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 1: investigations into the weaponization of government and putting in all 335 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: these oversight hearings as well. Greg what's the congressional response 336 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:25,160 Speaker 1: to what's happening with the former president? I'd make two 337 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 1: points quickly. Number One, I think Mitch McConnell has not 338 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:30,440 Speaker 1: been happy by what's happened in the last week or so. 339 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 1: It's deflected attention away from some very serious issues where 340 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: the Republicans should do well. Second point I'd make is 341 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 1: that obscured last night was a vote in Wisconsin that 342 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 1: for the Supreme Court in the state. The left wing 343 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: candidate one she made her campaign largely about abortion. So 344 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 1: while Trump made be a great irritant to a lot 345 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 1: of Democrats, abortion I think will continue to be a 346 00:20:56,440 --> 00:21:01,919 Speaker 1: big election issue, and it's an issue that energizes Democratic 347 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 1: voters as well. But in the meantime, of course, when 348 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 1: it comes to the former president and the legal issues 349 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 1: that he's facing, Democrats have, i think it's safe to say, 350 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 1: sort of sat on their hands about this. How do 351 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 1: you see Democrats Terry continuing to play this as this 352 00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 1: case moves forward against the former president and as he 353 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: continues to face some of these other investigations that you 354 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: said earlier face a higher bar for being seen as 355 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,200 Speaker 1: above board. Well, I think the White House won't say 356 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 1: much about it, nor should they. They ought to be 357 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 1: very much where they are, which is, you know, letting 358 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 1: the legal process play out. It doesn't be who have 359 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,120 Speaker 1: the president to get involved in a state court case 360 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 1: against the former president or pretty much anybody else. You know, 361 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 1: Democrats will professional democrats, national democrats, a lot of Democratic 362 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 1: voters will feel vindicated. They'll feel like, you know, the 363 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: the uh, their nemesis has been gotten here to some 364 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,359 Speaker 1: extent and you know, as being wrapped up, uh you know, 365 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 1: Gulliver style uh uh in the end. Uh you know, 366 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:18,919 Speaker 1: I think, uh that's a problematic for them though. Uh. 367 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:23,160 Speaker 1: You know, they they've now just given the New York 368 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:27,479 Speaker 1: have given Republican voters on the other side a lot 369 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,479 Speaker 1: of new energy across the board, as I say earlier, 370 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,880 Speaker 1: and that's going to even out to some extent the uh, 371 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 1: you know, the victories of Supreme Court justices and in 372 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 1: Wisconsin and progressives in Chicago and all the rest. Uh. 373 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 1: You know, by comparison, you know, you've got a situation 374 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 1: in the state legislatures where there is a where you've 375 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 1: got a trifecta where you've got the governors in the 376 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:56,160 Speaker 1: state legislature all aligned Republicans do that in twenty two states, 377 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,640 Speaker 1: the Democrats seventeen. Uh. So, you know, either of those 378 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 1: of the juries, by comparison, is not particularly large in 379 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,160 Speaker 1: the kind of the national mosaic compared to what's going 380 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 1: on right now with Trump. Now, you've certainly seen the 381 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: former president energized by this and his most fervent supporters 382 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 1: are behind him as well. But Greg, do you see 383 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 1: that energy continuing to build if this case continues to 384 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,879 Speaker 1: drag on through the legal system, and what could that 385 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 1: mean for some of the former president's potential primary rivals. 386 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 1: That's a good point, Nathan. I think there's a real 387 00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,200 Speaker 1: risk that the whole country will get Trump fatigue. I 388 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: got it already, and I think a lot of people 389 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 1: in our business, and we were all involved in the 390 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:45,200 Speaker 1: investment world. I think that for my clients, this story 391 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 1: is not even on the top ten on the radar screen. 392 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: There were so many other big issues. Jenny Yellen this 393 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 1: week is going to talk about how we'll spend eighty 394 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 1: billion dollars on the irs, that we still have the 395 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 1: death ceiling to deal with him has been no progress. 396 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,920 Speaker 1: So there are big Washington issues, But I think, especially 397 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 1: for the markets, we all may get a little fatigued 398 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 1: on Donald Trump. Does that fatigue play into what you're 399 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 1: hearing from your clients as well, Terry, Is that a 400 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,159 Speaker 1: concern for people you're talking to that some of the 401 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 1: bigger issues that need to get done in Washington could 402 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 1: get the oxygen sucked away? Well, you know, people are 403 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: people are cynical to begin with about Washington, and Washington 404 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,639 Speaker 1: continues to give them good reasons to be so. Uh 405 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,000 Speaker 1: So there is some of that, and uh, you know, 406 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 1: more Breton circuses only help to make that case. But yea, 407 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:43,719 Speaker 1: beyond the Trump show, you've got you've got an awful 408 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:47,720 Speaker 1: lot of you know, potential economic peril, whether it be 409 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: the kind of the inflation problems and U and fiscal 410 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 1: problems that we now have with the looming uh A 411 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: looming debt ceiling fight, which I still think non consensus 412 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 1: is about percent likely to result in a default. And 413 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:09,159 Speaker 1: as well, you've got kind of building foreign crises, you know, 414 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 1: whether it be in China with China, Russia run North 415 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,119 Speaker 1: Korea and the like. Uh, you know that all continues 416 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 1: to build as well. So you know, this is a 417 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 1: moment of increased geopolitical risk, and clients want to talk 418 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 1: an awful lot about that. Uh excuse me. But for 419 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:32,680 Speaker 1: the Republicans, they they're really interested. The clients are really 420 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,399 Speaker 1: interested in where we are on the race. And you know, 421 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 1: I still think that this is Trump's high water market 422 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: at Stables Slope. Prepare, this is Bloomberg Daybreak today, your 423 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 1: morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street 424 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 1: to Washington and beyond. 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