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Speaker 1: this is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karin Moscow Us,
Speaker 1: I'll get next. Future is rising. Let's go to the
Speaker 1: First Word Breaking news desk for today's morning call. Here's
Speaker 1: Bill Maloney. Good morning Bill, Good morning Karen. US futures
Speaker 1: are highed, but have paired some of their games since
Speaker 1: the last time we spoke. Deaf Futures currently hired by
Speaker 1: sixty nine points, says if he's game eight and as
Speaker 1: the futures rise by twelve, video's ten yield at one
Speaker 1: point seven six per cent after the bellis Night gap.
Speaker 1: April comp sales missed estimates, shares it down twelve percent
Speaker 1: pre market, and rack Space Q when SPS toped highest
Speaker 1: estimates regarding earning. Stay at lumber Liquid there's Q and
Speaker 1: sales missed estimates, shares it down thirteen percent pre market,
Speaker 1: Allergen EPSP revenue missed, and Norwegian crews He's Q tw
Speaker 1: EPs below estimates. In other news, Persian Square set itself
Speaker 1: part of its stake in Zoe. It's an our going
Speaker 1: to buy back up to ten billion in stock. Finally
Speaker 1: some of your wallsheet upgrades and downgrades. Solar City cut
Speaker 1: to neutral at Bank of America. Amazon Price start at
Speaker 1: raised to a street high a thousand from seven seventy
Speaker 1: over at Bernstein Wayfair cuts neutral at City Group, Rack
Speaker 1: Space cut out before him versus Strong by It Raymond
Speaker 1: James and h CP raised to hold over at Jefferies
Speaker 1: Live on the Fraser Breaking News Tascombo. Maloney Karen thanks
Speaker 1: Bill to hear live breaking news. However, you're a Bloomberg
Speaker 1: type squawk go and your terminal that s squ you
Speaker 1: a w k go and that's a Bloomberg business flash.
Speaker 1: Tom and Mike Karen thank you so much, greatly appreciate it.
Speaker 1: With him within the uh, the jumble of it all,
Speaker 1: we need to look at small business. We'll do that
Speaker 1: here in a moment. Bloomberg Surveillance is always brought you
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Speaker 1: to consider active management and factor based strategies. Find out
Speaker 1: more at investco dot com. Slash high Conviction Mike's small
Speaker 1: business Remember them, I remember them. They get they get ignored,
Speaker 1: which means it's a good time to speak with William
Speaker 1: Dunkelberg as you look at the small business economy and
Speaker 1: what he learns from you. Claimed n f IB survey
Speaker 1: is the survey giving you good information Bill Dunkelberg, Well
Speaker 1: we think so. Good morning, gentlemen. Uh you know, n
Speaker 1: f IB has a membership of about three hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty thousand firms, and we have about two thousand respondents
Speaker 1: in the April survey. Uh So, even if it's not
Speaker 1: a perfect representation of the small business sector out there,
Speaker 1: it represents an awful lot of firms. And of course
Speaker 1: those three fifty thousand members we have are hit by
Speaker 1: the same force as the the rest of them are.
Speaker 1: So I think we're in good shape there. Well, you're
Speaker 1: in good shape. There's a recovery, I get that, but
Speaker 1: it's nowhere near the average of night five to about
Speaker 1: two thousand four. With a new idea of a lower
Speaker 1: terminal value, a lower potential g d P, is small
Speaker 1: business hit harder? Are they part of the mix with
Speaker 1: big business? They actually do better? Which isn't well, it
Speaker 1: varies historically. Of course, we produce half of the private
Speaker 1: g d P H in the small business sector. Right now.
Speaker 1: You know, remember most houses in America are built by
Speaker 1: small businesses, not not the big famous names that are
Speaker 1: on the board. Uh, And that market is doing pretty well.
Speaker 1: It's pretty clearly running short of labor. That is, there
Speaker 1: a lot of problems in the construction sector finding qualified
Speaker 1: workers to get the job done. So, you know, so
Speaker 1: we're doing, you know, pretty well, but you're right, it's
Speaker 1: a it's been a sub normal recovery. Uh. The index
Speaker 1: at a high of a hundred in December of fourteen.
Speaker 1: It's now at ninety three point six, and the average
Speaker 1: over forty years is eight, so below average recovery. It
Speaker 1: has been. Does the does does what you're finding in
Speaker 1: your survey mirror what's happened with the rest of the
Speaker 1: economy that the bigger boys out there, that we were
Speaker 1: getting better than all of a sudden hit a pothole
Speaker 1: in the first of the year. The first quarter was terrible,
Speaker 1: and now we're coming out of it. Well, that's basically right.
Speaker 1: We've had the index declining just by fractions of a
Speaker 1: point for the last three months, so this increase of
Speaker 1: a full point uh certainly ends that, but still leaves
Speaker 1: us well below the average. So there's a lot of
Speaker 1: wanting The real problem is expectations for the future. The
Speaker 1: net percent of firms who think their real sales are
Speaker 1: gonna go up is sitting on the zero line, not
Speaker 1: percent playing that the inventory sitting on the zero line
Speaker 1: of about twenty percentage points. More of the owners think
Speaker 1: that the economy will be worse than six months than
Speaker 1: think it will be better. So that's kind of the
Speaker 1: outlook that they have for where the economy is going
Speaker 1: to go. I thought the wage dynamics are very interesting.
Speaker 1: What's the backstory their bill? I mean, when I look
Speaker 1: at wages, benefits, et cetera. Is this a group that's
Speaker 1: going to get closed by premium increases? Affordable Care Act?
Speaker 1: Is it? Is? That not really part of the issue,
Speaker 1: And part is say increasing minimum wage? What's the backstory
Speaker 1: dynamic of wages in small business? Right? Well, you pointed
Speaker 1: up two important things. One is that we do have
Speaker 1: a rising minimum wage in various states and cities to
Speaker 1: comply with. So that's one. And the other is, you know,
Speaker 1: is the rising cost of the benefits. So we we
Speaker 1: find a historically very strong percentage of our owners around
Speaker 1: say they're raising worker comp But you know, I could
Speaker 1: call you and and say Hey, tomm, you've got a
Speaker 1: two thousand dollar raise, but uh, no increase in your
Speaker 1: take home pay because that's covering the cost of your
Speaker 1: your health care insurance policy. What's the outlook for hiring?
Speaker 1: That's the bottom line question for everybody, particularly with small
Speaker 1: business which creates so many jobs. Yeah, the the hiring numbers,
Speaker 1: uh really held up pretty well. They accounted for half
Speaker 1: of the gain in the index. Um, you know every
Speaker 1: you know, every year we get three million were people,
Speaker 1: so that's barbershops and than all kinds of things like
Speaker 1: like that. So we always are kind of looking for
Speaker 1: workers and hiring. The question is how many. So the
Speaker 1: job openings number told us that that was so they
Speaker 1: had a hard to fill opening. Said the labor market
Speaker 1: site complaints about finding qualified workers are very high, about
Speaker 1: twelve or fiftcent so they can't find a qualified employee
Speaker 1: even though we're hiring or trying to hire, so that
Speaker 1: they can't find any workers out there. And the and
Speaker 1: the net percent who planned to create jobs is sitting
Speaker 1: around at eleven, So that's a good that's a pretty
Speaker 1: good number. Be nice to see it around fifteen to
Speaker 1: twenty range. But in this expansion, that's certainly a good number.
Speaker 1: Bill Dunkelberg, thank you so much, greatly appreciated. The chief economist.
Speaker 1: National Federation of Independent Business also holds down a fort
Speaker 1: at the University of Michigan as well. Michael, it's amazing
Speaker 1: to your Bill there. There's been a real sea change
Speaker 1: from the almost shock of non recovery to a legitimate recovery.
Speaker 1: And going back too from the jobs report, the overarching
Speaker 1: optimistic issue people can get people to work well basically yeah, no, please, no.
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say it's it's very much like
Speaker 1: what we're seeing all over the economy with things were terrible.
Speaker 1: Now things are better, but they're not great. You know,
Speaker 1: they're they're they're muddling along. But as you're saying, jobs
Speaker 1: the one area where they have the same problem finding fascinating.
Speaker 1: Bill Dunkerberg with a National Federation of the Independent Business
Speaker 1: futures up eight stay with the Sploomberg Surveillance. Now that
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