Speaker 1: Check it down Man. Thursday morning, January second, twenty twenty
Speaker 1: four is the Beating the Book podcast megapod for Week
Speaker 1: eighteen in that Ashes Football League, the scoreliest of all
Speaker 1: weeks in the National Football League. Gail Alexander, thanks for listening.
Speaker 1: We have a lot on the line here. The twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four megapod Handicapping Championship with Todd wishnev nursing, caressing,
Speaker 1: fondling a one and a half game lead over yours,
Speaker 1: truly doing all kinds of horrible things with his lead.
Speaker 1: Todd Wishne from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, the star of the showtime Docuseriies Action.
Speaker 1: It's happened to Toddy?
Speaker 2: What's up? Gilly howih and will Hill who?
Speaker 1: By the way, the reason we're late, the reason we're
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes late, is because old Prima Donna Willie over
Speaker 1: here had to do something we like to call the
Speaker 1: bear bets pod on five not accept unacceptable. What do
Speaker 1: you have to savor it?
Speaker 3: Gilly? What's going on? I apologize to everyone. I apologize
Speaker 3: to the nation.
Speaker 2: I think you should apologize to Dejnate Carrington and Caitlyn
Speaker 2: Clark today for what you've done. I agree. I agree.
Speaker 3: We can in college basketball too, so I don't. Hopefully
Speaker 3: we don't distract Todd too much in this podcast so
Speaker 3: we can make his magical though. I guess what you
Speaker 3: said you had something. It's been a rough, a rough
Speaker 3: batch of beats.
Speaker 2: Right, Toddy, rough bats of beats. Every time I need
Speaker 2: no overtime, it goes over time. Every time I need
Speaker 2: no yes overtime, it goes no overtime. So we have
Speaker 2: the Charleston Southern Buccaneers going up against the Gardener have
Speaker 2: running bulldogs. I'm sure a soil have at least a
Speaker 2: first half and maybe some prop bets for us on
Speaker 2: today's ball game.
Speaker 1: Speaking of which, Ladies, Ladies and Gentlemen, one of the folks,
Speaker 1: along with Marco, one of the two folks upon whom
Speaker 1: the megapod was built upon whose shoulders it was built,
Speaker 1: co hosted the show for eight years, eight seasons. I
Speaker 1: want to say it is you know him by many names,
Speaker 1: Johnny Vegas, Runner, Ace Ace, ladies and gentleman on the show,
Speaker 1: Who's at what is It? Wager Talk and does UFC
Speaker 1: stuff as well. How you doing man, never better?
Speaker 4: Brother, Thank you, thank you for having me back on.
Speaker 4: As you said, we've been doing this for a really
Speaker 4: long time, Gil, way back before we were even even
Speaker 4: video was up like podcasts. So thank you, thank you
Speaker 4: for having me on. And I yeah, it's been a
Speaker 4: long road, brother, but I'm happy to be here and
Speaker 4: excited for this weekend.
Speaker 3: For sure, we were.
Speaker 1: We were just saying all air. We used to do
Speaker 1: the Vegas Lifestyle Show when when we would go to clubs,
Speaker 1: that's how young we were at the time. And now
Speaker 1: we when we.
Speaker 4: Would sprinkle, and now it's everywhere, can you Matt. We
Speaker 4: added a word to the lexicon of sports betting, and
Speaker 4: we'll never get the credit for that, but when I
Speaker 4: see it everywhere, I swear, I get happy, Like it
Speaker 4: doesn't irritate me. At first it did a little, but
Speaker 4: now I get so happy. Come like, we actually did
Speaker 4: add that work, that alexicon of sports batting.
Speaker 2: We really did.
Speaker 1: Yeah, none of that stuff irritates me anymore. But you're right,
Speaker 1: like at first you're like, hey, wait a minute, that's uh,
Speaker 1: that was a you said it, And then I would
Speaker 1: put the E forty sprinkle me man.
Speaker 2: Pushing it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, okay. Week eighteen is squarely All kinds of
Speaker 1: motivations and ways that coaches are handling this from team
Speaker 1: to team are different. What we know so far is
Speaker 1: that a lot of playoff implications. Washington is playing players.
Speaker 1: Seeding matters to them. The Steelers seeding matters to them.
Speaker 1: They will be playing players anyone who's healthy, that is,
Speaker 1: as will the Chargers, as will the Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 1: We also know that the La Rams, who again I've
Speaker 1: been saying this on the radio side all week, sometimes
Speaker 1: we overrate how much seating means these teams and the
Speaker 1: LA Rams, who you would think would want to avoid
Speaker 1: being the five excuse me, the four seed would want
Speaker 1: to avoid hosting the loser of the Lions Vikings Sunday
Speaker 1: Night showdown instead, Sean Payton and Sean McVay pardon me,
Speaker 1: is like, we don't really care so much. We're resting everybody. So,
Speaker 1: which is part of his history, I guess as well.
Speaker 1: So that line did beat Crazy, What's that.
Speaker 2: They did beat Minnesota and that's part of.
Speaker 1: Lost lost in ot to Detroit beat Minnesota. That's part
Speaker 1: of the thinking perhaps for him as well. He's like, well,
Speaker 1: it was a matter who we play for the La Rams.
Speaker 1: We're awesome.
Speaker 3: Okay, Well we get into the records.
Speaker 2: Before we get into all that.
Speaker 1: Update the record, sir, that's where I was going.
Speaker 2: Okay, So there's a lot going on here. In the
Speaker 2: final week of the season, there's only three picks left. Gilly,
Speaker 2: a good friend of mine, went three and oh with
Speaker 2: the luckiest commander's cover you could ever imagine. I'm just
Speaker 2: kidding Gilly. It wasn't that lucky, but it was a
Speaker 2: little lucky. I'll tell you that. Anyways, he goes ye know,
Speaker 2: it was pretty lucky. He goes three and oh to
Speaker 2: move to twenty seven wins, twenty three losses and a tie,
Speaker 2: only one and a half games back. First, we'll talk
Speaker 2: about Willy, who went one and two tried to go
Speaker 2: directly against me with an over forty four in the
Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs Pittsburgh Steelers game, which I attended on
Speaker 2: Christmas Day and kept it under And so Willy goes
Speaker 2: one and two to go to twenty two twenty seven
Speaker 2: and two, and I hit a beautiful three and oh
Speaker 2: to match Gilly and keep my one and a half
Speaker 2: game lead to go to twenty nine twenty two with
Speaker 2: the Lions under in the case and then the most
Speaker 2: gorgeous of covers, the over forty and a half in
Speaker 2: the Colts Giants game that was over about I don't know,
Speaker 2: four minutes into the game, about one point fifteen. You
Speaker 2: could already catch your tickets. So it's twenty nine and
Speaker 2: twenty two for me. Now the guest, the guest situation
Speaker 2: is only a half game back. They're not technically in
Speaker 2: the running for the for the bragging rights because there's
Speaker 2: no one to actually brag, but you know, a should
Speaker 2: try to do well here today. Guests also went three
Speaker 2: and oh to go to twenty eight twenty two and one.
Speaker 2: Great job by Matt Brown. And so there's where we are.
Speaker 2: The guest a half game back, Gilly a game and
Speaker 2: a half back, and our friend Dejon a Carrington so
Speaker 2: far back you can't even see him in the teaser.
Speaker 2: Will you lost? Because the Colts lost? And so Gilly
Speaker 2: goes to five eleven and one. I am seven eight
Speaker 2: and two. I mean Willy is seven eight and two.
Speaker 2: Who leaves the teasers. It's a nice job by Willy there,
Speaker 2: I am seven and ten and teasers. The guest is
Speaker 2: also seven and ten and teasers, so hopefully we can
Speaker 2: come up with a teaser win to finish off the season.
Speaker 2: A lot on the line.
Speaker 1: Five and eleven not too good. You remember that's what
Speaker 1: Spurrier said when the Skins were five and eleven. Someone
Speaker 1: asked him, think about your five and eleven season. He's like,
Speaker 1: five and eleven not too good. But I see another
Speaker 1: tea twelve, so that's something. Step let me finish. Okay,
Speaker 1: what's next? Todd Dumbo of the Week? Oh, Dumbo over
Speaker 1: the Week.
Speaker 2: I want to do it. I want to do I
Speaker 2: want to give first of all we have, there's obvious
Speaker 2: to this week. Obviously, Raheem Morris gets a Lifetime Achievement
Speaker 2: Award in the Dumbo of the Week. This guy is
Speaker 2: just unbelievable, and you guys can give us a bunch
Speaker 2: other I want to go against a certain guy just
Speaker 2: because Gilly loves him, Dan Quinn, I want to say.
Speaker 2: And nobody even nobody noticed this, probably or maybe a
Speaker 2: five people did notice it at the time, but I
Speaker 2: felt an incredibly dufous thing that he got away with.
Speaker 2: At the end of that game, it's twenty four all.
Speaker 2: After the fourth down pass to pits I believe for
Speaker 2: the touchdown. They tie it up, and now the Redskins
Speaker 2: have the ball with one nineteen left at their own thirty.
Speaker 2: I guess the first thing you got to think of,
Speaker 2: aside from winning the game is you can't allow the
Speaker 2: other team to have any time to beat you in regulation.
Speaker 2: So you might want to think about, you know, grinding
Speaker 2: this clock down. I mean, one nineteen is a long time,
Speaker 2: and he also had time outside. How many timeouts did
Speaker 2: he have left at that point, I don't remember, but
Speaker 2: he definitely had some timeouts. The point is you cannot
Speaker 2: allow out Lanta to get the ball back first and
Speaker 2: ten sack on Daniels, and it's now fifty nine seconds
Speaker 2: left for second and ten. And on second and ten,
Speaker 2: I think you absolutely must not throw it in complete pass.
Speaker 2: They throw it incomplete pass, and it's now fifty five
Speaker 2: seconds left, and now it's third and ten, and now
Speaker 2: you've got a real big problem because if you throw
Speaker 2: another incomplete Atlanta's going to get the ball back. That's
Speaker 2: exactly what happened. I feel like that was extremely lucky
Speaker 2: that Raheem Morris gacked it right back to him with
Speaker 2: his stupidity about the timeouts. But I felt that was
Speaker 2: really really underratedly dumb, because you know, you can't allow
Speaker 2: it Lanta to get a chance, and he did.
Speaker 1: It was a twenty nine second drive. You're absolutely right,
Speaker 1: and it gave Atlanta the ball back with forty seconds left.
Speaker 1: So you're right, that's bad. But it's not even top
Speaker 1: three this week.
Speaker 2: Well, of course it's not your No, it's not, it's not.
Speaker 2: I just wanted to talk about it because I'm sure
Speaker 2: a lot of other people have talked about all the
Speaker 2: obvious stupidity.
Speaker 1: Talked out about it on a little show called Guessing
Speaker 1: Lines on Monday. But yeah, I will say this, the
Speaker 1: Rahee Morris wins, I think because Rahee Morris didn't do
Speaker 1: it once. Rahee Morris did it. Yes, gave the Skins
Speaker 1: four points of charity, gave it. Gave the Skins four
Speaker 1: points of charity at the end of the first half
Speaker 1: and then at the end of the game in that
Speaker 1: final drive. Well, first of all, the end of the
Speaker 1: first half, he had all three timeouts, all three timeouts.
Speaker 1: They're up fourteen to seven.
Speaker 2: They start.
Speaker 1: First of all, they let the Skins on fourth down
Speaker 1: on the punt run the clock down from two thirty
Speaker 1: something to two minutes. Then on offense, they run plays
Speaker 1: after the punt at one fifty three, one eighteen left
Speaker 1: in the game, by the way, still has all three timeouts. Okay,
Speaker 1: one eighteen still three timeouts. That's a lot of time,
Speaker 1: but okay, then fifty three seconds, then forty six seconds,
Speaker 1: and then he does not run the next The Falcons
Speaker 1: don't run their next play till twenty seconds are left,
Speaker 1: and he has all three timeouts. They end up having
Speaker 1: a kickerfield.
Speaker 2: So that was that was from Washington thirty six. Killy,
Speaker 2: that was from the Washington thirty six. They could have
Speaker 2: scored a touchdown.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, absolutely, And then and obviously at the end
Speaker 1: of regulation when it was twenty four to twenty four,
Speaker 1: after that sequence that Todd was just talking about, they
Speaker 1: started their own nineteen with forty seconds left. They have
Speaker 1: two timeouts, and they immediately go Pennix to Mooney for
Speaker 1: twenty five. Morris does not use one of his two timeouts,
Speaker 1: so when a Penix then throws the incompletion on the
Speaker 1: next pass, there's only twelve seconds left left at their
Speaker 1: own forty four, then seven seconds left on the next incompleation.
Speaker 1: They finally use one with the stopped clock there, and
Speaker 1: then they get the PI call on Michael Davis, so
Speaker 1: it sets up a Riley Patterson game winning field goal,
Speaker 1: but from fifty six yards which goes way short. That
Speaker 1: is I mean, I'm what's the line from Anchorman? Not
Speaker 1: Anchorman was an ancher Man. Yeah, I'm not even mad
Speaker 1: at you, backster Y, you ate the whole wheel of cheese.
Speaker 1: That's incredible.
Speaker 3: Because they were probably gonna beat Carolina this week, and
Speaker 3: that's it. They're gonna win the division this Uh that
Speaker 3: swings a division championship. And uh, we do have to
Speaker 3: mention Zach Taylor too, who could have just taken these
Speaker 3: kicked a twenty one yard field goal straight on with
Speaker 3: about ten or fifteen seconds left and taking a three
Speaker 3: point lead. Instead, he's got to run a play risk,
Speaker 3: a holding risk, and injury to get from the three
Speaker 3: to the one. Guess what Chase Brown gets hurt? Denver
Speaker 3: is able to save a timeout, and then what are
Speaker 3: we gonna do. We can't burn all the clock. Let's
Speaker 3: score a touchdown, give up a touchdown now we're in overtime.
Speaker 3: Just a disaster there, absolutely disaster from Zach Taylor, that was.
Speaker 1: A hold my beer one because then Sean Payton didn't
Speaker 1: go for two to win the game, right, he kicked
Speaker 1: an extra point of course overtime, which because what you
Speaker 1: really want to do is play an overtime against Joe Burrow.
Speaker 3: But a time as good as a win in the
Speaker 3: only Yeah, that's one. That one's at least debatable, where hey,
Speaker 3: a TI is as good as a win. I'm gonna
Speaker 3: get the ball back if I can get a stop
Speaker 3: and run out the clock, I get a time in
Speaker 3: the playoffs. The not taking a NY is just absolutely
Speaker 3: is just incorrect. The other one is at least debatable.
Speaker 1: Well, and I want to say this about the Zach
Speaker 1: Taylor to think, because you get the Lombardes of the world,
Speaker 1: and then everybody who like mimics what he says because
Speaker 1: you want he has it in for Zach Taylor, You're
Speaker 1: right about that moment. He just should have kneeled it.
Speaker 1: The correct play, the plus ev play, the most optimal
Speaker 1: play was kneel it, kick the field goal. They get
Speaker 1: the ball back with ten seconds twelve seconds left in
Speaker 1: the game. But I think people got the next part
Speaker 1: wrong general, which is once they decided to run the ball,
Speaker 1: and shit happens when you run the ball right. And
Speaker 1: what happens was, first of all, Chase Brown got bottled
Speaker 1: up and he bounced off the bottle up, went three
Speaker 1: more yards and got hurt. So you couldn't have anticipated
Speaker 1: an injury, but an injury happened. One almost got.
Speaker 3: Dragged into the end zone. He almost got dragged into
Speaker 3: the en zone there he came very close to scoring.
Speaker 1: That's right. But the part that I think people got
Speaker 1: wrong in general was that next part, because a lot
Speaker 1: of people were giving them shit for then score in
Speaker 1: the touchdown, which I don't think is correct because at
Speaker 1: that point, you're, yeah, at that point, your choice was
Speaker 1: we go up seven with about one thirty left or
Speaker 1: whatever it was, or well, i'll give you the exact uh,
Speaker 1: because I want to I don't want to get it wrong.
Speaker 1: The choice at that moment was, uh.
Speaker 3: You let's seven, verse up three.
Speaker 1: It's you either go up seven with one twenty nine
Speaker 1: left or three with forty five seconds to go. So
Speaker 1: I actually think the seven was the right play at
Speaker 1: that point once you once you fucked up the first point. Yes,
Speaker 1: so anygreed nott any in game before we get to.
Speaker 2: This I just wanted instead of doing an in game
Speaker 2: this week, because I didn't really have any in gaming
Speaker 2: you know, stuff, except for being an idiot and betting
Speaker 2: against Trubisky to get a touchdown and McKee to get
Speaker 2: a touchdown when they were both teams were up by
Speaker 2: a thousand. We've got a new thing now in the NFL.
Speaker 2: We try to score on third and fourteen screen passes
Speaker 2: when we're winning by a million. Okay, I think I'm
Speaker 2: done with that whole angle. I just wanted to talk
Speaker 2: about a little prop that I thought was interesting that
Speaker 2: that hit Taja Spears was going to play instead of
Speaker 2: Pollard for the for the Titans this week. And the Titans,
Speaker 2: if you looked at their game log, Pollard was getting
Speaker 2: a billion yards in any game that was close. In
Speaker 2: all the games that weren't close, he wasn't getting anything
Speaker 2: because they were behind by a million. They were throwing
Speaker 2: all the time. So you had to think that his
Speaker 2: backup was also going to get a lot of yards
Speaker 2: because he wasn't going to You know, they're playing did
Speaker 2: they played this past week with somebody crappy just like them?
Speaker 2: I forget who they jagged?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 2: Jacked right? Okay? So you knew the game wasn't going
Speaker 2: to be a blowout. You're going to get those carries
Speaker 2: to Spears, and you had Spears at sixty yards and
Speaker 2: if you if you notice, Pollard always got like eighty
Speaker 2: ninety one hundred yards in games that were closed. So
Speaker 2: I thought that was an interesting angle where you could
Speaker 2: look at something that was kind of hidden in the
Speaker 2: stats because obviously you're not going to know what Spears is.
Speaker 2: But now Spears is Paul, right, And if you look
Speaker 2: at what Pollard did, you know, what's the difference between
Speaker 2: Pollard and Spears. But it's not like Barry Sanders and me.
Speaker 2: It's you know, it's not that different, right, It's about
Speaker 2: the same, like the most pretty good pasts. Yeah, pretty good,
Speaker 2: But you know that's only that's on the on the
Speaker 2: belly play. When I when I played at Army, I
Speaker 2: was ready.
Speaker 3: You're just kind of underrated too, by the way, I think.
Speaker 3: I like Spears.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I just thought I wouldn't talk about that
Speaker 2: one just because I thought that was an interesting thing
Speaker 2: where the stats were kind of hidden on that one.
Speaker 2: But if you if you knew how to read between
Speaker 2: the lines, you could you could come up with a winner.
Speaker 1: I like it all right, I have it before we
Speaker 1: get the best bets. I have a procedural question that
Speaker 1: only applies to week eighteen and me being a game
Speaker 1: and a half behind you, do we still do the
Speaker 1: same order where we snake and then you can play
Speaker 1: game theory and just mimic one of my picks.
Speaker 2: I was, I was thinking about this the whole day today,
Speaker 2: and I thought a fair way to do it would
Speaker 2: be to write down our picks beforehand, so that way
Speaker 2: we can't you do any and then it does and.
Speaker 3: You text them to me, and I'm the orbit, I don't.
Speaker 2: I have them written right here, right here in the corner.
Speaker 2: I know who they are, but they're written down. You
Speaker 2: should write that your three down also, and then that
Speaker 2: way there's no there's no shenanigans now with gil Gill's
Speaker 2: honorable Todd can be the one that thank You's got.
Speaker 3: Paper with different combinations.
Speaker 2: Like most things in life, Willy as usual has his
Speaker 2: passive aggressiveness against me, and that's fine. That's fine. We'll
Speaker 2: deal with that in a therapy session maybe on Thursday
Speaker 2: next week, but right now we'll just note it and
Speaker 2: move on.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm texting them to Willy.
Speaker 2: I mean I could text my too, but I have
Speaker 2: him written down, so it doesn't I mean, if you
Speaker 2: want me to, I will, well, you text Will.
Speaker 1: I don't really trust By the way, then Will's gonna
Speaker 1: text both of us and each other's picks to.
Speaker 2: Text you back right, I can't trust that guy.
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 1: Ace. By the way, where can they find your UFC stuff?
Speaker 3: Oh?
Speaker 4: I just head on Greek Underscore Gambler, Greek Underscore Gambler
Speaker 4: at Twitter and of course on Instagram and all that
Speaker 4: social media stuff. But on the fight if you go
Speaker 4: to fight Pass, you fcs fight Pass. I got a
Speaker 4: podcast that I do weekly. I have a show that
Speaker 4: we do for all the pay per views and a
Speaker 4: couple of big fight nights, and I also do the
Speaker 4: Contender series each and every year for them. So I
Speaker 4: got about three shows right now on their streaming network.
Speaker 4: If you're on fight Pass, you could check those out
Speaker 4: for sure.
Speaker 1: I'm telling you every every once in a while, I
Speaker 1: go into the sportsbook and you're like plastered big on
Speaker 1: one of the screens. I'm like, look to see.
Speaker 4: I had the best year with MMA ever ever ever,
Speaker 4: But I had to losing your betting. Yeah, I had
Speaker 4: to in the last ten years. I've documented since twenty
Speaker 4: fifteen with me and you had that launch, and I'm
Speaker 4: coming off the second negative year selling picks over that span.
Speaker 4: But my best year in MMA, if you can believe that,
Speaker 4: had the best year ever in MMA. But baseball killed me.
Speaker 4: College football we didn't win, didn't win an NFL this year,
Speaker 4: So it's been bad in other sports. But MMA has
Speaker 4: been really good to me. So looking forward to twenty
Speaker 4: twenty five and a big rebound.
Speaker 1: Yeah, NFL like our records, like Todd's record for being
Speaker 1: in first place.
Speaker 4: I'm impressed though, is a pretty big.
Speaker 1: Achievement because this has been a rough year.
Speaker 4: Guilt, it's been the outlier year. Not this small to
Speaker 4: show down or interrupt you. It's been an outlier year
Speaker 4: everywhere as far as favorites. Favorites over seventy percent hitting
Speaker 4: me in the UFC. That's much higher than their average
Speaker 4: as far as the favorites go. Because it's actually third
Speaker 4: in major sports in underdogs winning outright, I think it's
Speaker 4: it's Major League Baseball number one, NHL number two, and
Speaker 4: MMA's number three, and yet over seventy percent of the
Speaker 4: favorites won this year, and you saw the same thing
Speaker 4: in the NFL. I think there was a week that
Speaker 4: you're going I mean they were talking data that go
Speaker 4: back twenty twenty five years of results where favorites have
Speaker 4: not done so well over a span of time, Like
Speaker 4: since Week fifteen, I saw favorites have never won so
Speaker 4: much during one particular week, Favorites never won so much.
Speaker 4: So it's been an outlier year. The fact if you're
Speaker 4: profitable this year in NFL as a sharp beetter who
Speaker 4: only looks for plus ev bets, it's impressive.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 4: I'm impressed that you guys are positive.
Speaker 2: Really yeah. By the way, and we started the season
Speaker 2: with all dogs. If you remember, we said our favorite's
Speaker 2: ever going to win. After the first couple of weeks
Speaker 2: it was all dogs and then well you.
Speaker 1: See it in Survivor, right, the first five weeks was
Speaker 1: the most carnage ever ninety eight plus percent on in Survivor,
Speaker 1: and then the last five weeks barely anybody. Evan Abrams
Speaker 1: from The Athletic used to I think he's been on
Speaker 1: this podcast before. He used to be at ESPN had
Speaker 1: that tweet where he said the only favorite since week
Speaker 1: thirteen of six points or greater to lose out right
Speaker 1: was the Cults this past week against the Giants, and
Speaker 1: then Ben Fox Ben Fox since week thirteen. Since since
Speaker 1: the same week, I want to say, favorites are like
Speaker 1: seventy plus percent ats. It's unbelievable.
Speaker 4: So it really is.
Speaker 1: There you go, there, you go? All right, Ace, you
Speaker 1: know how this works. I don't have to tell you
Speaker 1: the Formatt what's your first best bet, sir?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I know a lot of people are going to
Speaker 4: disagree with me here, but I really like the Pittsburgh
Speaker 4: Steelers on Saturday. I usually look the fade a team
Speaker 4: like that when you get a big player expected to
Speaker 4: be back, like the return of Joey Porter, and how
Speaker 4: he's going to help that secondary and that defense, especially
Speaker 4: up against an offense like Cincinnati. Usually usually there's that
Speaker 4: overreaction and we price these players to be worth more
Speaker 4: than they are. But I think in this case against
Speaker 4: the Cincinnati team, where you have a lot of recency bias,
Speaker 4: one team's coming in hot, one team's coming in cold,
Speaker 4: they already played earlier in the year. Cincinnati got the
Speaker 4: job done. I think Pittsburgh's being extremely overlooked here. I
Speaker 4: think no home field advantage seems to be factored into
Speaker 4: this price. I know the line's dropped. I'm not getting
Speaker 4: as good as the opener, but it was a money
Speaker 4: line bet for me from the beginning. I think there's
Speaker 4: a game Pitur does win at home, so give me
Speaker 4: the Steelers in this first one. I really liked the
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday night to shake some things up
Speaker 4: going in the Sunday by.
Speaker 1: The way, Tim Lawson, a Megapod historian, tweet texting in.
Speaker 1: Since joining the Megapod in twenty twelve as a co host,
Speaker 1: Ace has only missed one season on the podcast twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1: He was attendance twenty twelve to twenty eighteen and a
Speaker 1: perennial guest twenty twenty through the twenty twenty fourth season.
Speaker 4: Than I told Pride and perfect attendance. I never missed
Speaker 4: the Megapod sick or whatever. Even back then, I used
Speaker 4: to go out every night almost too, so it didn't
Speaker 4: matter whether straight from going out. Megapod never missed rather
Speaker 4: perfect attendance.
Speaker 1: Do you remember when when Marco's we were on skyp
Speaker 1: in those days when Marco used to drop out and
Speaker 1: used to say and used to go on this rimp
Speaker 1: Marco was getting some.
Speaker 4: Yep, going going for a little snack, to the fridge,
Speaker 4: going to the fridge for a little snack. And I
Speaker 4: don't want to go off off track real quickly, but
Speaker 4: I do want to add nothing's changed over the last decade. Well,
Speaker 4: the hustles are still the same. So if anybody wants
Speaker 4: to listen to megapod from back then on what to
Speaker 4: do when you're coming to Vegas, nothing's really changed. The
Speaker 4: game's the same, don't get trick rolled while you're here,
Speaker 4: have a good time, and yeah, enjoy.
Speaker 1: Vegas kickbacks with the taxi drivers that kind of thing.
Speaker 1: Okay about the Steelers though, again they play The Steelers
Speaker 1: play on Saturday. So the Steelers right now inhabit the
Speaker 1: number five seed in the AFC if Baltimore wins before
Speaker 1: Baltimore clinches the AFC, North Baltimore is now like we
Speaker 1: had nineteen point favorite as we came on air here
Speaker 1: against the Brown so they're obviously expected to do that.
Speaker 1: But that doesn't mean that Pittsburgh has nothing to play for.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh wants to keep that number five seed so that
Speaker 1: they get to go to travel and play Houston, the
Speaker 1: number four seed. Houston right now seeming like they're the
Speaker 1: team in the worst form of any team headed into
Speaker 1: the postseason. So that's the incentive for Pittsburgh in there.
Speaker 4: And it's the Bengals. It's the Bengals. It's the Bengals.
Speaker 4: You can't forget. There is that rivalry with Pittsburgh in
Speaker 4: the Bengals and the Pittsburgh's beating that team for the
Speaker 4: last five times, and I think they were a dog
Speaker 4: in half of those games and they won the out right.
Speaker 4: So I think Pittsburgh shows up on Saturday.
Speaker 1: Gil Bengals need to win and have both the Broncos
Speaker 1: and Dolphins lose for them to make the playoffs. The
Speaker 1: perennial what's the proverbial team no one wants to face
Speaker 1: in them? Yeah, Toddy, what's your number one? Dude? With
Speaker 1: nursing the one and a half game lead.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna get down a similar place to where Ace
Speaker 2: is talking about in the north side of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Akrisher.
Speaker 2: They call it Akrosher. It used to be called Hinesfield.
Speaker 2: In that the parking is very expensive.
Speaker 3: We all have talked.
Speaker 2: About that ad nauseum. But I will say this, it's
Speaker 2: gonna be cold. It's gotta be cold in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 2: on Saturday night. I'm looking at temperature in the teams.
Speaker 2: That's pretty pretty cold. I'm looking for an under under
Speaker 2: forty eight. Wait am I seeing? Oh it just popped
Speaker 2: up to fifty two. I'm going under fifty two. No,
Speaker 2: I'm just kidding forty eight. I'm going under dine air
Speaker 2: at actor sure. Last game between these two teams that
Speaker 2: went way over. No, I know all about the Bengals,
Speaker 2: great offense, bad defense. They're ten and six to the
Speaker 2: over there, the overteam, very big overteam, horbone defense. Give
Speaker 2: up a million, score a million.
Speaker 5: However, it's gonna be seventeen degrees out. Try throwing the
Speaker 5: ball Diner to Chase whoever or whatever the hell Higgins,
Speaker 5: whatever the guy you got over there.
Speaker 2: I don't care who they're throwing to. You got four
Speaker 2: thousand people down there you're trying to throw the ball to.
Speaker 2: You're gonna have a hard time. It's only seventeen degrees
Speaker 2: at at Okay, not in act, it's seventeen degrees that
Speaker 2: it's freezing down time. North side will be even colder.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be tough to throw the football. I'm thinking
Speaker 2: under I'm thinking the Pittsburgh Stillers are gonna line up
Speaker 2: and say, it's cold, We're a cold weather team. We're
Speaker 2: gonna run the goddamn football and we're gonna win this
Speaker 2: goddamn game twenty four to seventeen under forty eight in
Speaker 2: the freezing cold.
Speaker 1: And I hope you have an oxygen take Andy, you
Speaker 1: can all right? Did I by the way, to be cool?
Speaker 1: I think I think they came up. I think they
Speaker 1: came up.
Speaker 3: By the way.
Speaker 1: We were talking about this morning on radio DraftKings, speaking
Speaker 1: of like it used to be with Week eighteen or
Speaker 1: the last week when it was Week seventeen, Week sixteen
Speaker 1: before that used to have a lot of correlated parlay opportunities.
Speaker 1: But the NFL the last few years is sort of
Speaker 1: legislated that out by and large by really scheduling Week
Speaker 1: eighteen the final week properly where they try to get
Speaker 1: as many of the games that are the seedings that
Speaker 1: are dependent on other games in the same time windows.
Speaker 1: So they've done the best they could here and it
Speaker 1: sort of minimizes the amount of correlated opportunity, correlated parlay
Speaker 1: opportunities we have, But you do have a Bengals Chargers possibility,
Speaker 1: right if the Bengals beat the Steelers and the Chargers
Speaker 1: of this number six seed are incentivized to crush the
Speaker 1: Raiders on Sunday. Unversely, there's a Steelers Raiders one where
Speaker 1: if the Steelers win, then the Chargers aren't incentivized. Maybe
Speaker 1: you want to play the Raiders on Sunday. So that
Speaker 1: does exist. DraftKings is letting you parlay the Bengals Chargers
Speaker 1: but not the Steelers Raider. Interesting?
Speaker 2: Wow, allowed one without the other?
Speaker 1: I don't either.
Speaker 3: Very interesting all right?
Speaker 1: So I will know Todd based on that result. If
Speaker 1: I am one or two games behind you heading into
Speaker 1: sun I like it, Willie, I am way.
Speaker 3: Ravens Browns eighteen.
Speaker 1: Todd at t wishnev. Will it not be? Will Hill?
Speaker 1: What do we have?
Speaker 2: I have eighteen for the Baltimore Ravens versus San Jose State.
Speaker 3: It's a lot of points, but it's not enough points.
Speaker 3: I don't know how the Browns score, whether it's dtr
Speaker 3: who's not an NFL quarterback, or Bailey Zappi. The Ravens
Speaker 3: are off a mini by they haven't played since Christmas,
Speaker 3: they're home, they're playing to win a division. The defense
Speaker 3: has played a lot better the past few weeks, and
Speaker 3: I regretted not picking them against the Giants when it
Speaker 3: was a similar spread a few weeks ago. The Ravens
Speaker 3: are a bullie. They kill all these bad teams. I
Speaker 3: heard Aaron Shots on his podcast say he has the
Speaker 3: Ravens as the sixth best team ever according to his DVOA.
Speaker 3: So I know, Gil, you've mentioned, Hey, they're the best
Speaker 3: team in the league according to your power rankings for
Speaker 3: quite some time. I think this has you know, thirty
Speaker 3: three written all over. And of course you worry Ravens
Speaker 3: pull their guys or a back door score. But I
Speaker 3: don't really worry about a backdoor score with these quarterbacks
Speaker 3: for Cleveland. I think Baltimore roles I will lay the
Speaker 3: eighteen year.
Speaker 1: Model. Wait a minute, does he haven't well, hold on,
Speaker 1: does he have them as the sixth best team or
Speaker 1: the six best offensive all?
Speaker 3: I believe he has them as the sixth best team
Speaker 3: of all time.
Speaker 1: Really, because last year's Ravens he definitely had as a
Speaker 1: top ten orble And.
Speaker 3: He went on to say maybe he has some bias
Speaker 3: in his numbers towards the raven because he doesn't understand
Speaker 3: why the Ravens keep popping up so high. But his
Speaker 3: numbers are his numbers, and I'll go back and double check.
Speaker 3: And I'm actually gonna have him on my podcast later.
Speaker 3: He has the Ravens. I believe it's sixth best team
Speaker 3: of all time according to the DVA.
Speaker 2: I'm going to respectfully disagree there, Will, respectfully, I'm going
Speaker 2: to disagree. Okay, the sixth best team of all time,
Speaker 2: the Baltimore Rimn Come on stop it. Will.
Speaker 1: Will is the host of the UH Perhaps if I
Speaker 1: had to do it all over again, I would have
Speaker 1: wagered an entirely higher amount of money podcast and now
Speaker 1: I have deep regrets. I believe that's the name. And
Speaker 1: I told him, I was like, you should just call it,
Speaker 1: should have bet more. And Will's like, great, that's team.
Speaker 2: In the NFL all time. Give me a break.
Speaker 1: I have had him number one power right. I don't
Speaker 1: know what to call him six best all time, but
Speaker 1: number one Power Rank this year.
Speaker 3: This year I stier Rank. I'm just relaying the message
Speaker 3: from our good friend and great guest of this podcast,
Speaker 3: Aaron Shotts. So if you have something mean to say
Speaker 3: what you say to his piece. Yeah, he loves your humor.
Speaker 2: I like all guests, I like everybody. I'm not against anybody.
Speaker 2: But that's ridiculous.
Speaker 1: All right, I get two number one. Baby, Here's where
Speaker 1: I take it. I am taking the Kansas City Omaha
Speaker 1: Chiefs plus the points. I'm taking the Kansas City Chiefs,
Speaker 1: which is now what is it now? Todd? I'm seeing
Speaker 1: ten and a half? What do you have to have?
Speaker 1: Any elevens out there? And I get an eleven?
Speaker 2: Ten and a half?
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 3: Can I just I think I'm the only one that
Speaker 3: knows this, So I'm just gonna reveal this. The number
Speaker 3: is not gonna matter because this is a match.
Speaker 1: This is a match. Oh okay, match between me and you,
Speaker 1: Oh match between.
Speaker 3: Me between you and Todd.
Speaker 4: It did hitt e eleven real quickly at hitte eleven earlier.
Speaker 2: It now means let me do the math for you, folks.
Speaker 2: If you're Raheem Morris out there and you're struggling with
Speaker 2: the math, I'll tell you this. If me and Gilly
Speaker 2: are both on Kansas City, which we are, and we
Speaker 2: did not set it up. We emailed Willie ahead of
Speaker 2: time that means there's only two games left for Gilly
Speaker 2: to beat me. He has to go too, and all
Speaker 2: I have to go and two. Otherwise it's all over bouts,
Speaker 2: it's over calling off.
Speaker 1: This is a brutal development. Please tell me that we
Speaker 1: don't match on a second one?
Speaker 3: Correct?
Speaker 1: Oh, thing.
Speaker 3: Still alive.
Speaker 1: I'm on the Chiefs, Todkinschiman as well.
Speaker 2: I get it.
Speaker 1: It's not Patrick Mahomes, it's Carson Wentz. But good god,
Speaker 1: how many points are the Broncos laying? And I get
Speaker 1: the Broncos win, they're in. But I'll take the Kansas
Speaker 1: City Chiefs plus ten and a half against anybody with
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz just because it's ten and a half points.
Speaker 1: It's a very simple handicap. I get it. They have
Speaker 1: nothing to play for. Andy Reid sits his most important
Speaker 1: players in these situations. But I'll happily endure a sixty
Speaker 1: minute football game with the Chiefs if you're giving me
Speaker 1: ten and a half. Broncos aren't that spectacular. They can
Speaker 1: roll teams at will, it's not like they're a juggernaut.
Speaker 1: So Chiefs plus ten and a half that's the play.
Speaker 1: And I am really angry, really angry.
Speaker 3: Oh, I'm glad you said text the pigs to Willy
Speaker 3: that way.
Speaker 2: I can't even be accused of anything. This is fantastic, brutal.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm glad let's put this on. I'm glad I
Speaker 1: got it out first, so now I know heading forward?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 1: Oh, I get a second one, which I know Todd
Speaker 1: doesn't have because Will says we didn't match. I'm on
Speaker 1: the Houston Texas, the Houston Texans, who are what are
Speaker 1: they getting a point at a point and a half
Speaker 1: or what are they getting or I think I guess
Speaker 1: this line would be Texans minus three. I get that
Speaker 1: they have nothing to play for. They're locked into the
Speaker 1: number four seed. But Kelly on Monday morning told me
Speaker 1: that when we were doing guessing lines, the Titans at
Speaker 1: that time were favored by four and a half point
Speaker 1: and a half. And my immediate reaction was what because
Speaker 1: the Titans are not incentivized to win. The Titans right
Speaker 1: now are in the number two position in the upcoming
Speaker 1: NFL draft, so their management can manipulate this if they
Speaker 1: wanted to. They wanted to and not try to win
Speaker 1: this game with the roster constructor or who they're playing,
Speaker 1: I should say this week, so they shouldn't be favored
Speaker 1: by four and a half, just on principle. I didn't
Speaker 1: make the bet during the show, and like an hour
Speaker 1: later after the show, Kelly texts me. He's like, oh,
Speaker 1: it's a pick them all right now. I'm like, ah,
Speaker 1: let me make the bet. I think Houston as the
Speaker 1: worst team right now in current form going into the postseason.
Speaker 1: They need to play a good football game before they
Speaker 1: get to the playoffs, so I think they're actually going
Speaker 1: to put in a good effort here. So I like
Speaker 1: Houston over Will's favorite team, the Tennessee Titans. By the way,
Speaker 1: the only thing Will likes better than the Ravens being
Speaker 1: favored by nineteen is if the Titans were. If the
Speaker 1: Titans were favorite by nineteen, then he'd be all over that.
Speaker 1: Texans my number two.
Speaker 3: Thank god, but you said the only thing Will likes more.
Speaker 3: I wasn't sure where you were going. I'm glad you
Speaker 3: kept it appropriate and we can.
Speaker 4: Move on because we're live on Twitter.
Speaker 2: He claims to love poon tang. I'm not sure, but
Speaker 2: he claims.
Speaker 1: To Will, you're up.
Speaker 3: I agree with this pick. I hate to fade the
Speaker 3: Titans because they've been just so good this year, two
Speaker 3: and fourteen against the spread. My goodness, there should be
Speaker 3: a thirty for thirty about this team. But I agree
Speaker 3: with just about everything he said. Texans need to at
Speaker 3: least play their guys, I would think for a quarter
Speaker 3: or a half to somewhat feel good about themselves. Do
Speaker 3: the Titans really want to win this game and spoil
Speaker 3: a chance at the first pick or the second pick?
Speaker 3: I will I will go with the Texans here, Doddie.
Speaker 1: Let's find out how you're gonna lose it.
Speaker 2: Oh Shu, I shouldn't give him a CAC plus ten
Speaker 2: and a half and wait till, wait, till the last
Speaker 2: pick for the drama. I think we should do the drama.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Kansas City plus ten and a half
Speaker 2: for much of the same reasons. My good friend Gilly, who,
Speaker 2: by the way, I'll mention, only has two picks left
Speaker 2: to beat me his game A half mine, Uh, ten
Speaker 2: and a half is just too many points. I mean,
Speaker 2: give me a freaking break. Carson Wentz is gonna want
Speaker 2: to go out there and try to remember Carson Wentz
Speaker 2: has that great play where he just throws it up
Speaker 2: deep and they get a pass interference every time. When
Speaker 2: he was on the Colts, he could probably go.
Speaker 3: Down to the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he could do that. It's Andy Reid too.
Speaker 2: I mean, give me a break. Ten and a half point.
Speaker 2: It's bow Knicks. I mean, enough of this boat. Oh
Speaker 2: bow Nicks. He's amazing, He's Jaylen Daniels. He's not. He's
Speaker 2: still bow Next, let's relax a bit, okay, And Kansas
Speaker 2: City's got a great th Kansas City plus ten and
Speaker 2: a half. I'm with Gilly on that one, mister Ace.
Speaker 4: I'm going to take the j e Ts New York Jets.
Speaker 4: The lines moved against me, but I don't meet Mander
Speaker 4: too much because the best I could have got was
Speaker 4: two two and a half anyway. And again it's another
Speaker 4: spot where I do like the money line. And it
Speaker 4: comes down to the narrative around the Jets of how
Speaker 4: that locker room is in turmoil. That's obvious. Everybody knew that.
Speaker 4: There's no surprise there. What sticks out to me most
Speaker 4: is the Tua angle here and Hontley at quarterback. He's
Speaker 4: coming off a great performance where I believe he completed
Speaker 4: like twenty two of twenty six passes he had one
Speaker 4: hundred and fifteen passer rating. If you look over his career,
Speaker 4: his last four or five years, I think only once
Speaker 4: has over a season been hired, and in the seventies.
Speaker 4: So a regression is expected from last week. I mean,
Speaker 4: it doesn't mean it's going to happen automatically, but I
Speaker 4: just think he played better than expected. I think he
Speaker 4: should come down a little bit, back down to earth.
Speaker 4: I also like the fact that Miami on the road
Speaker 4: played so much better at home than they have on
Speaker 4: the road this year. That's reflected in the record cold
Speaker 4: weather we're in January in New York. There's just a
Speaker 4: lot that sticks out on this Jets side. The more
Speaker 4: and more I look at it again, it's an ugly team,
Speaker 4: and I know the bettingston gets some being betting them
Speaker 4: each and every week without too much success. But I
Speaker 4: do think this is a spot for them at home
Speaker 4: where they can beat this Miami team traveling coming off
Speaker 4: those back to back wins. Again, I think more recency bias.
Speaker 4: I look for that where the Jets are coming off
Speaker 4: some losses. They gave up forty points last week, but
Speaker 4: I think their defense is better than that. And you
Speaker 4: have a Miami offense that is bottom you know, ten
Speaker 4: twelve in the NFL without two, which hasn't been confirmed.
Speaker 4: I think the Jets stay in this game. I like
Speaker 4: the Jets to get the w at home.
Speaker 1: Maybe the most amazing thing about layoff scenarios this week
Speaker 1: is if the Dolphins win and the Broncos lose, the Dolphins.
Speaker 3: Compute, the Dolphins could playing in the playoffs. I don't know.
Speaker 3: I've just meantally written them off like three or four
Speaker 3: different times. Yeah, I totally agree.
Speaker 1: I don't even think about them, and yet they are at.
Speaker 3: Even if they make the playoffs, they might not allow
Speaker 3: them play the game. They might just say, you know what,
Speaker 3: I know you qualified, but you know what, you're stay
Speaker 3: at home. We're just gonna, you know, vacate the spot
Speaker 3: or something. You can't go in.
Speaker 1: Cincinnati needs the Dolphins to lose. In addition to the
Speaker 1: brin Miami is actually ahead of the line of Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: Who everybody, Maybe we should warn.
Speaker 2: People that they don't just bet on this? Who needs this?
Speaker 2: Who doesn't need that? Like me and Gilly are taking
Speaker 2: Kansas City plus ten and a half because we've watched
Speaker 2: Week eighteen about twenty years in a row. And it
Speaker 2: never goes down. There's no free money, folks, There's no
Speaker 2: free money in the world. And there's and a corollary
Speaker 2: to that is there's no free money in the National
Speaker 2: Football League. So if you're standing in the book and
Speaker 2: somebody says, oh, well, this team needs it, this team
Speaker 2: doesn't need it, but it doesn't mean it's going to happen.
Speaker 2: Very often the opposite happens. I can remember multiple times
Speaker 2: Tomlin rested everybody and had like third stringer guys in
Speaker 2: and they were like getting a billion points and they
Speaker 2: won the game. Out Right. It happens all the time.
Speaker 2: So don't go too over your skis with that.
Speaker 3: One addition to that, I was just say quickly, you
Speaker 3: can't rest everybody. It's not like a college team. We
Speaker 3: have ninety guys on the team. Okay, how you get
Speaker 3: your quarterback and you know, a couple of key offensive lineman,
Speaker 3: a couple of ski guys, maybe your best defensive player,
Speaker 3: a couple couple of skill guys. You don't have. I mean,
Speaker 3: there's fifty what fifty three guys on a football team.
Speaker 3: Just to the math. You can't rest them all, Like
Speaker 3: you got to play somebody that.
Speaker 1: Matters and as doctor Bob says, if you're in a
Speaker 1: must win situation, you must not be that good.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I love great point, great point yep.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it's aces turn again for his third once again.
Speaker 4: Yet, Yes, I love this board. I know I say
Speaker 4: it a lot, but I think this last week board,
Speaker 4: especially with the way these lines have moved, there's just
Speaker 4: too much sticking out at me. Wanted to point out
Speaker 4: real fast. I was going to jump on the Saints
Speaker 4: that got hit at fourteen. I don't have fourteen anymore,
Speaker 4: so I'm not going to use it just for that reason,
Speaker 4: because I think you will be able to get fourteen
Speaker 4: when we approach the weekend. Now it's down to thirteen
Speaker 4: and a half. All that talk with the win and
Speaker 4: you win the NFC South, with the bucks you're paying
Speaker 4: for that, and what happened in New Orleans, I think
Speaker 4: we will get an effort from that team on Sunday. Instead,
Speaker 4: I'm going to go with the over in that Chiefs
Speaker 4: Broncos game. I'll go over forty. I don't know if
Speaker 4: it's thirty nine's or still out there. I'll go over forty,
Speaker 4: no problem at all. It's at forty, that's no problem.
Speaker 4: That's no problem at all. Obviously, the talk is the
Speaker 4: Broncos need to win for the playoff shot. That's why
Speaker 4: they're double digit favorites. And all the talk about the
Speaker 4: starters are not going to play even some of the backups.
Speaker 4: Is the rumors like they're gonna sit some backups or something,
Speaker 4: and like, we'll touch on you. How can you sit everybody?
Speaker 4: You just can't do that. You don't have enough players
Speaker 4: to do that. I like the fact that we're looking
Speaker 4: at two of the top five defenses more or less
Speaker 4: in the NFL. I talk about that a lot. I
Speaker 4: think it's the perfect storm for an over because usually
Speaker 4: there's the overreaction to the defense. Is low scoring game,
Speaker 4: so you're going to have to adjust that total towards
Speaker 4: that bias. But to go defense, this is a lot
Speaker 4: of time, force turnovers, force short fields, they're special teams involved. Like,
Speaker 4: it doesn't automatically give you an under because you got
Speaker 4: good two good defense. So I have that going for me,
Speaker 4: and I think I like the Recncy bias of Kansas
Speaker 4: City having coming in with a lot of overs. I
Speaker 4: think for their last five games have gone over. When
Speaker 4: you look at the head to head matchup between these
Speaker 4: two teams. They played in November. They only put up
Speaker 4: thirty points. Last year both games went under the total.
Speaker 4: But I think we're overreacting because if you look at
Speaker 4: those numbers, they were forty sevens, they were forty fives.
Speaker 4: Now we're down to where it open at thirty eight
Speaker 4: and a half. So the market has become more efficient
Speaker 4: as far as this matchup goes and the total, and
Speaker 4: I think we could take advantage of the over this
Speaker 4: late in the seasons. Let's go over forty in Casey Denver.
Speaker 1: Guest chair trying to win a championship, even though we
Speaker 1: don't count, it should not be, by the way, ignored.
Speaker 2: That brought me up. That brought me to a point
Speaker 2: that I was going to mention before when we were
Speaker 2: talking about endgame and Ace he could weigh in on this.
Speaker 2: I've noticed a lot in college football and in pro
Speaker 2: football when you get these line games that are very
Speaker 2: low line games, like for instance, New York Giants last
Speaker 2: week against the Colts, which I won in the first
Speaker 2: ten minutes. It was like a forty and a half.
Speaker 2: And the reason it was a forty and a half
Speaker 2: was because the Giants were expected to not be able
Speaker 2: to move the ball at all. But if you had
Speaker 2: watched any Colts games, right, you saw the Colts give
Speaker 2: up like thirty points, a ton of points to Tennessee,
Speaker 2: you know, in a backdoor situation, and everybody scored on
Speaker 2: the Colts. So I don't know if you notice this,
Speaker 2: but if you get points early and you get teams
Speaker 2: moving the ball in low scoring line games, I like
Speaker 2: to go over those in games because it means that
Speaker 2: something's wrong. And as soon as you saw that the
Speaker 2: Giants could move the ball, that's forty and half. I
Speaker 2: got like forty two and a half. But still it's
Speaker 2: just too low. That game is lined that the Giants
Speaker 2: can't do anything the whole game. Well, if they drive
Speaker 2: down the field once or twice, you're like, wait a second,
Speaker 2: something's wrong here, you know. And I've noticed that in
Speaker 2: all lot in like Big Ten games where you like
Speaker 2: UCL against Nebraska or you know, they have these games
Speaker 2: that are lying like thirty nine. It's like ridiculous. If
Speaker 2: teams can move the ball, it's not going that low,
Speaker 2: you know. So I don't think they have noticed.
Speaker 4: If I could chime in, why I love that approach, Todd,
Speaker 4: is this everybody's looking to do the opposite. What we're
Speaker 4: looking to do is look for a team that's a
Speaker 4: ten point favorite that's down a touchdown, or looking for,
Speaker 4: you know, a dog that's up for us to fade
Speaker 4: something along those lines, or teams that scored a lot
Speaker 4: early you're expecting it to slow down in the second half.
Speaker 4: You're doing the opposite. You're saying, I'm seeing it in
Speaker 4: front of my eyes. I see the data also reflect
Speaker 4: the line was off before the game started, like that
Speaker 4: was wrong. Based on what is happening in real time,
Speaker 4: and then you're looking to take an ends, you may
Speaker 4: get a point worse than what the close was, but
Speaker 4: it doesn't matter because now the game's not being played
Speaker 4: like that line reflected. It's being played completely different. So
Speaker 4: who cares if what the close was. It may look
Speaker 4: like you're getting two points worse, but are you really
Speaker 4: getting two points worse? Probably we not, because that forty
Speaker 4: clothes should have been forty four anyway if it played
Speaker 4: out the way it's playing out. So I like that approach,
Speaker 4: and it makes sense to me.
Speaker 3: It's like Charleston Southern, who is an underdog today, but
Speaker 3: they're up by ten, so they're only wighing six and
Speaker 3: a half on the on the live wine now up
Speaker 3: by twelve thirty six twenty four to just almost.
Speaker 2: I almost went over sixty five and a half first half,
Speaker 2: but I backed off because not both teams were in
Speaker 2: the boss. Only one team was in the bonus.
Speaker 3: That's why was the first time and wishing to have
Speaker 3: history that you chickened out on a bet and it lost.
Speaker 3: I don't think that's ever happened before.
Speaker 1: Does that ever happened?
Speaker 2: That's true? Usually when I chicken out on a bet
Speaker 2: that wins like eighty five percent of the time, it's unbelievable.
Speaker 2: It's by the way, that eighty five percent number is
Speaker 2: documented at major places because I call them up and
Speaker 2: I go, I like this, but I'm not betting it,
Speaker 2: and then they say, oh, they're party tracked.
Speaker 1: By the way. By the way. In a related note, Crypto.
Speaker 2: Dodd is the figure is the king of.
Speaker 1: I got lucky happening doesn't make it yeah.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, oh yeah, No, I'm definitely the king of that.
Speaker 2: I'm definitely no. But I was right about that. I
Speaker 2: was right about the ETFs. We're going to make it
Speaker 2: easier for people to get into That was a good call.
Speaker 2: I have to say that. And the fact that I
Speaker 2: didn't make any money on it and Gilly made a fortune.
Speaker 2: That's what we're talking about. I pick it, don't make money,
Speaker 2: and then it wins. Of course, I think we should
Speaker 2: have Willy. I think Willy should do his third pick
Speaker 2: first and then we do like in golf, you know
Speaker 2: the guy furthest away from the hole, that kind of deal.
Speaker 2: So Willy, why don't you do your third Billy? Would
Speaker 2: you agree with that? That's a good way to go.
Speaker 3: Like I like it, Well, I am going to go.
Speaker 3: It's your your podcast. However, whatever you want me to do,
Speaker 3: I try.
Speaker 2: I try to help the less fortunate hosts out there.
Speaker 3: Detroit, Detroit, Minnesota. I will take the two and a
Speaker 3: half with Minnesota. I think, by far the worst unit
Speaker 3: of the four. I haven't picked Minnesota a lot. I've
Speaker 3: actually picked against them more than more than I picked
Speaker 3: on this year. I just think the worst unit of
Speaker 3: the four by far is the Detroit defense with the
Speaker 3: two and a half. If one of these teams is
Speaker 3: down seven to late and they score a touchdown, I
Speaker 3: think Campbell would probably go for two. So I just
Speaker 3: think this is a toss up game. I'll take the
Speaker 3: two and a half. I think Minnesota's defense is more
Speaker 3: capable of getting stopped. Detroit's defense has been hideous the
Speaker 3: last month or so. I mean they already bottom bottom
Speaker 3: of the league defense since all these injuries started to accumulate.
Speaker 3: Green Bay carved them up, should have won. Buffalo scored
Speaker 3: a million points on them, even Chicago had like four
Speaker 3: hundred yards of offense, and then San Francisco moved well
Speaker 3: up and down the field. Minnesota is gonna score a
Speaker 3: lot of points here, and I'm gonna take Minnesota plus
Speaker 3: the two and a half.
Speaker 1: I retract the shots. Will is not a Homer when
Speaker 1: it comes to betting.
Speaker 2: Sounds like a Homer pick to me. Sounds like a
Speaker 2: Homer pick to me.
Speaker 1: But I will try to track Will.
Speaker 2: When I watched the Lions on Monday Night football, I
Speaker 2: thought to myself, how is this team going to win
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl? There's no defense whatsoever. I mean, this
Speaker 2: is unbelievable. You can't win the Super Bowl with a
Speaker 2: defense like that, can you?
Speaker 3: The only possibility would be if they win this game,
Speaker 3: they get to they get to buy and they get
Speaker 3: some of these guys healthier, they can lick their wounds,
Speaker 3: and they can just be two home wins away from
Speaker 3: a super Bowl. But your point is one I completely
Speaker 3: agree with. You can't beat this battle defense fifty every half.
Speaker 2: I believe it's the highest number of the year. Am
Speaker 2: I right? I've been saying fifty six and a half.
Speaker 3: Bill was close or no, it was Bill's Lions was close,
Speaker 3: but I think he closed under fifty six and a half.
Speaker 3: But it was close.
Speaker 2: I mean, fifty six is a real thing to go over.
Speaker 2: I mean, to go over fifty six and a half,
Speaker 2: that's more than twenty eight one of the halfs and
Speaker 2: twenty eight that's a crazy number for an NFL game,
Speaker 2: just so we're saying. But I almost went under. But
Speaker 2: the reason I didn't take the under was because I
Speaker 2: was nervous. It would be like, you know, twenty one
Speaker 2: seven two minutes in and I'd be like, oh no,
Speaker 2: I lost this megapod to Gilly. So that Gilly, I
Speaker 2: think it's your turn to make their third pick, and
Speaker 2: luckily for you, I didn't match with you, So you
Speaker 2: have a tiny.
Speaker 1: Chance before we do that. Do you think, because I
Speaker 1: think a lot of people thought what you thought watching
Speaker 1: that game, Todd about the Detroit defense that how can
Speaker 1: this team win a Super Bowl? Do you think that
Speaker 1: whoever gets the number one seed wins and gets to
Speaker 1: the playoffs gets to the Super Bowl from the NFC?
Speaker 1: You think if it's Detroit, they still get there, no
Speaker 1: matter what if they have home field. Same with Minnesota,
Speaker 1: same with Philly? Or can that only apply to certain
Speaker 1: teams in Europe? Because the number one seed, right, the
Speaker 1: big advantages. You don't have to play a game, and
Speaker 1: historically the number one seed gets there an inordinate percentage
Speaker 1: of time, no matter what, who does it. Let's put
Speaker 1: it this way, who does it mean the most to
Speaker 1: of those three teams? Well, Philly can't do it anymore, right,
Speaker 1: so Philly's out. So it's between Minnesota and Detroit. I
Speaker 1: thought it meant the most of Philly when they were
Speaker 1: still involved in Does it mean more to Minnesota or
Speaker 1: to t.
Speaker 3: I don't think Minnesota is winning three road games? And
Speaker 3: it's funny. As big as this game is, you're playing
Speaker 3: for the division, you're playing for the one seed. Very
Speaker 3: possible these teams are meeting again in two weeks now.
Speaker 3: This game is going to determine where. But It's not
Speaker 3: a given because you might be you know, a game
Speaker 3: against the Rams is not a layup, A game against
Speaker 3: Tampa wouldn't be a layup, but it is possible. This
Speaker 3: is we're looking at a rematch here. We're talking about
Speaker 3: a rematch here in the second round of the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Drew Dinzik had an interesting point earlier this we're not
Speaker 1: an interesting point, but his perspective on it, and it
Speaker 1: kind of matched what I did my power ranks this morning.
Speaker 1: Kelly and I both did him on a numbers game
Speaker 1: at VIISIN and I didn't realize I did this until
Speaker 1: I looked at him today on the show, which is
Speaker 1: my top three teams are three AFC teams, all the
Speaker 1: more Kansas City, Buffalo, and then after that it's all
Speaker 1: seven NFC team. Oh wow, and so and Drew said
Speaker 1: earlier in the week, he said, he goes it's his.
Speaker 1: I asked what's the most outlying opinion? I asked that
Speaker 1: of you too, Will and his was like, he doesn't
Speaker 1: think Buffalo's as good as Kansas City in Baltimore, and
Speaker 1: he thinks anybody can win it in the NFC. Do
Speaker 1: you believe that anyone Washington, Green Bay?
Speaker 3: I don't think Washington can no offense. I think Washington
Speaker 3: would be the one where I be a man that
Speaker 3: team got to the super Bowl. That I just think
Speaker 3: next year is the year where, hey, they're knocking on
Speaker 3: the door. I think them getting in the playoffs, and
Speaker 3: like winning a game would get them making the playoffs
Speaker 3: is an incredible year. Winning a game would just be
Speaker 3: friend of like, you know, almost like a mid major
Speaker 3: level Sweet sixteen super Bowl seems like a stretch, would
Speaker 3: you agree as a Washington fan?
Speaker 1: Yes, but offense taken nonetheless?
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1: I'm deeply offended. Okay, my last play, I'm taking the
Speaker 1: Rams plus the six and a half. I know Sean
Speaker 1: McVay is sitting Stafford, he is going to sit Iron Williams,
Speaker 1: He's going to sit in players. But I didn't anticipate that.
Speaker 1: By the way, I have a terrible bed in my account.
Speaker 1: Rams plus three. I did not anticipate Sean McVay not
Speaker 1: caring about the seating because again, if they fall to
Speaker 1: the four, if they lose, Tampa Bay wins, Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: ends up being a three seed, and then the Rams
Speaker 1: will have to host the loser of the Lions Vikings
Speaker 1: in a four or five one wildcard week, But I
Speaker 1: six and a half. Give me them points. Jimmy Garoppo
Speaker 1: play for right.
Speaker 4: They're not playing for any eliminated Well.
Speaker 1: They don't have anything to play for when it comes
Speaker 1: to a team. But Gino Smith as a boatload of
Speaker 1: incentives that could earn him up to six million dollars
Speaker 1: if he hits. Oh so a lot of people are
Speaker 1: focusing in on that. I choose not to at six
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm going Jimmy G and Blake Krum
Speaker 1: to get me to the promised Land plus six and
Speaker 1: a half. Boys, let's go, by the way, have we
Speaker 1: seen Jimmy G at all this year? Has there ever
Speaker 1: been a camera on him all year long? I've not
Speaker 1: seen one shot of him in a RAMS uniform.
Speaker 3: Such a good point. I don't think that will be either. Yeah,
Speaker 3: if it was one, then it was. If we have
Speaker 3: seen him, it was like one. See they don't show
Speaker 3: him a lot, Toddy.
Speaker 1: This is the way it all.
Speaker 2: Wait, I'm hearing something. Yes, yes, I'm hearing it. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Seattle Seahawks lead at thirty one twenty two. Rams have
Speaker 2: the ball ten seconds to play from the Seattle fifteen,
Speaker 2: hoping to somehow cover it. I don't know why they're
Speaker 2: not just kicking the field goal here. They probably should,
Speaker 2: but they decided to go for it. They're gonna give
Speaker 2: a draw play to corm he's going for the pilon.
Speaker 2: Oh he didn't make it. He didn't make it, Jim,
Speaker 2: What do you think did he get there?
Speaker 4: No, I don't think he did.
Speaker 2: A final score is gonna be thirty one twenty two, Gill,
Speaker 2: he's going down.
Speaker 1: You think they're aware of our showdown here? Jim.
Speaker 3: Also time, you gotta give the down in the distance,
Speaker 3: in the time if you're gonna shoot on my impression
Speaker 3: first time I did it, I'm gonna be much more.
Speaker 3: You didn't give the down in the distance or the
Speaker 3: time how much time left was left.
Speaker 2: I gave you the time ten seconds left from the
Speaker 2: twelve yard line, thirty one twenty two. It didn't matter
Speaker 2: how much what down it was. There's only one left. Like,
Speaker 2: they don't have any timeouts left. So Blake Koram was
Speaker 2: running for the pilot and he either makes or he does.
Speaker 2: There's no time to get another playoff. They don't have
Speaker 2: the New Orleans Saints. You know, time are down there
Speaker 2: to stop the clock.
Speaker 3: So they're doing don't understand how seconds left down two scores?
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 1: You don't know how Todd's brain works. He like has
Speaker 1: little benchmarks he has to hit, so he's like pylon
Speaker 1: Jim the road.
Speaker 2: To the color guy to ask him what he thought,
Speaker 2: and Jim clearly thought he didn't hit the pylon. So
Speaker 2: it's stays thirty one twenty two and Killy goes down.
Speaker 2: What can we say? All right, Jackie's your last one,
Speaker 2: my third pick. I'm going out to a place called
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have this entire
Speaker 2: season been to me what I would call a severe
Speaker 2: over team. I will tell you what they're over and
Speaker 2: under record is this year, but I will tell you this,
Speaker 2: eleven and five eleven overs, five hunders. You say, wow,
Speaker 2: what's that all about? Well, it's pretty simple. Tampa Bay
Speaker 2: likes to score, and they don't like to stop the
Speaker 2: other team from scoring. They don't like defense, and they
Speaker 2: love offense. Now, our boy Baker Mayfield also loves to
Speaker 2: throw pick sixes in there every once in a while
Speaker 2: and do something stupid that helps too. Forty four. Now
Speaker 2: here's the issue. Can the Saints get me enough points
Speaker 2: to get the over forty four? That is really the question,
Speaker 2: because I think that Tampa's gonna get me some points
Speaker 2: like they always do. I think Tampa's good for thirty one.
Speaker 2: So can the Saints get me to fourteen points with
Speaker 2: Spencer Rattler, Jake Ayner and the boys. And it'll just
Speaker 2: come down to whether or not they can get that
Speaker 2: backdoor touchdown late to get it to thirty one fourteen,
Speaker 2: And I think they can do it with this horrible
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay defense. Forty four in a Tampa games is
Speaker 2: just too love By the way, the first time these
Speaker 2: two teams played, I believe the score is fifty one
Speaker 2: to twenty seven. The Saints stop them zero times, Baker
Speaker 2: Mayfield through two pick sixes, and it still was fifty
Speaker 2: one twenty seven Tampa. So I'm thinking you gotta go
Speaker 2: over forty four and Tampa. There can't be bad in Tampa,
Speaker 2: can it. What's the weather like? I didn't even check
Speaker 2: the weather's let's let's see the weather. The weather in
Speaker 2: Tampa that day will probably agree with Howling wins. Wait, no,
Speaker 2: sixty four degrees and ball me extremely ball me, that's
Speaker 2: good football Weather. I think we can get over forty four.
Speaker 2: Give me over forty four for the championship against my
Speaker 2: good friend Gilly. Now the thing is just do the
Speaker 2: math at home, folks. If Gilly goes one and one
Speaker 2: on the non in Kansas City picks, he can't win anyways,
Speaker 2: So I could back into the title possibly. I mean,
Speaker 2: do you think he's gonna get Texas plus one and
Speaker 2: Rams plus six and a half home? I don't think.
Speaker 1: So we have a tweet. Nice thing about doing this
Speaker 1: on Twitter is we get live tweets of the podcast.
Speaker 1: This is from Buddhist Man who says there is no
Speaker 1: doubt in my mind that Todd listened to a Numbers
Speaker 1: game today and roadblocked Gil with his Kansas City selection.
Speaker 3: First on that, I told you. I told you I
Speaker 3: was talking to Todd before and and Todd goes I've
Speaker 3: been listening all week. I know what was gonna pick,
Speaker 3: so I'm gonna I told you he gets out of that.
Speaker 2: You guys are better than this, or maybe you're not.
Speaker 1: I thought we are better than you're not.
Speaker 2: You all know I don't listen to ang except on
Speaker 2: Fridays when I like the guest lineup. So you all
Speaker 2: know that wasn't the situation and just cut it out.
Speaker 1: Okay, you don't like you don't like Bill Krackenberger and
Speaker 1: and and Drew Dinsick and uh will.
Speaker 2: Really I have nothing to do all day and just
Speaker 2: be turning on a n G. I mean, I'm a
Speaker 2: very busy person. I got stuff to do. I got
Speaker 2: naps to take, I got meal, I got stuff to do.
Speaker 2: I gotta take a dump everything in a while. I mean,
Speaker 2: give a guy a break.
Speaker 3: This is a truth telling podcast, so just tell the truth.
Speaker 3: You listen Friday so you can learn from Steve Eick
Speaker 3: and become a be or better.
Speaker 2: Well I prefer rass and doctor Bob over Steve, but.
Speaker 1: You know, really nice job check mating him, though very
Speaker 1: well done.
Speaker 3: Well, take your little finger and hit the knit on
Speaker 3: the on the under.
Speaker 2: I like Felika. Actually, I like Felika the most.
Speaker 1: Over over Fenzing doctor. By By the way, I'm texting
Speaker 1: with doctor Bob, Doctor Bob making his a return. Doctor
Speaker 1: Bob says, I got nothing to talk about. I was like,
Speaker 1: let's just talk. He goes, Okay, I'll tell you what
Speaker 1: I think about the semi final.
Speaker 2: There you go, doctor Bob.
Speaker 1: By the way, how about that non targeting yesterday?
Speaker 3: Oh how about the nine to one I gave out
Speaker 3: on a numbers game and the and the quarterback was
Speaker 3: like an inch probably crossed the goal line. Then he
Speaker 3: drops the ball and they gave him you know, they
Speaker 3: they played it in between and they're like, oh, we'll
Speaker 3: just call him short.
Speaker 1: I was so close.
Speaker 3: That was like a five thousand dollars. Wait wait, wait,
Speaker 3: wait quarterback on New Year's Eve, Demon Williams rushing downs.
Speaker 3: He had one and then he dove for the goal
Speaker 3: line for the second one, and the Todd's famous pylon
Speaker 3: he like dropped it looked like he crossed. We didn't
Speaker 3: have like a straight down the line. Look at it,
Speaker 3: and I had a feeling they weren't going to give
Speaker 3: hi to him because he dropped it. About that was man,
Speaker 3: that was hush shem and his uh, his finest work there.
Speaker 1: Geez, he said, hush shim.
Speaker 2: I like that. What are you, Brent Musburger? You're picking
Speaker 2: the college quarterbacks to get two touchdowns?
Speaker 3: Gilly asked me at the end. He goes, do you
Speaker 3: have any bet you haven't talked about it? And I thought, like,
Speaker 3: this kid, he's seventeen years old. By the way, true freshman.
Speaker 3: He's athletic. I saw him. He's like nine ten to
Speaker 3: one to get two plus rushing touches like that, that's
Speaker 3: worth the shot. We'll take a shot here, and damn
Speaker 3: almost got home. That was a tough, one one quick thing.
Speaker 3: Scataboo pushed off on that touchdown. Clearly it was offensive
Speaker 3: past interference. Now, of course they don't pull offensive past
Speaker 3: in afference. It's not really in the rule book.
Speaker 1: Someone brought that up on Twitter. But okay, pass interference
Speaker 1: is always like the most super subjective thing in the world.
Speaker 1: Probably did passing right, But targeting has a literal language
Speaker 1: right associated with it, and we've all watched a billion
Speaker 1: college football games, and we all know what targeting is.
Speaker 1: By the way, SVP had had a guy who talked
Speaker 1: to one of the officials, it's and he said, is
Speaker 1: clearly targeting. By the way, the Doug Gottlieb opinion of, oh,
Speaker 1: it's targeting, but you don't call it at that point
Speaker 1: in the game is the most brain dead shit I
Speaker 1: ever heard.
Speaker 2: That's about Miami against Cow. Do you remember the Miami
Speaker 2: Cow game where the cow guy literally had his head
Speaker 2: torn off his body. His head was hanging off the body,
Speaker 2: and they didn't call it. Literally was hanging off his body.
Speaker 2: Who was unbelievable. They didn't call targeting and it cost
Speaker 2: me to.
Speaker 1: What's amazing is they literally happened, and not enough was
Speaker 1: made of that in the newspapers after that. But I
Speaker 1: only bring it up to say that. I only bring
Speaker 1: it up to say that if Auburn, if Bern Auburn
Speaker 1: doesn't jink that field goal right afterward, let's say he
Speaker 1: makes it. How I mean, I think the way we
Speaker 1: would be talking about this today is what the fuck
Speaker 1: are we watching? Why are we betting on this? This
Speaker 1: is all rigged shit?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 1: Like that would be rampant all over the place today
Speaker 1: and perhaps justifiable, you know, in some degree, to some degree.
Speaker 1: But thankfully he misses it, and it's like, okay, good,
Speaker 1: they can all win it on even playing grounding, because
Speaker 1: I think we dodged a major bullet.
Speaker 2: I just think that.
Speaker 3: I totally agree.
Speaker 2: And if it's fourth, and by the way, if it's
Speaker 2: fourth and thirteen, regardless of what the what the bad
Speaker 2: calls were, it's fourth and thirteen, just get off the field.
Speaker 2: The game's over, you know, Fourth and thirteen.
Speaker 3: Come on way too Easyeez? Yeah, has anyone ever thought
Speaker 3: of just dropping all eleven into coverage on those spots?
Speaker 3: I don't think like you see sometimes they rush to
Speaker 3: and drop nine, which, hey, you're probably not gonna get
Speaker 3: home with two. Anyways, anyone even tried, Like, of all
Speaker 3: the games we watch, we talked about how many games
Speaker 3: we watch, how many situations just drop all eleven? Would
Speaker 3: that just make it impossible or there'd be too many
Speaker 3: bodies to like complete a past? I think it's at
Speaker 3: least worth trying.
Speaker 1: This isn't the same thing. But you remember that Chiefs
Speaker 1: game years and years ago where the defense dropped everybody
Speaker 1: and then they needed a hail Mary and they went
Speaker 1: like twenty yards to Tyreek Hill and it basically became
Speaker 1: this weird game where the defense had to like approach
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill at the same time all eleven.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 1: That was I still like the one time I remember
Speaker 1: that happening. You remember that time at all? It was
Speaker 1: like a totally different thing they did vaguely.
Speaker 2: By the way, I want to give a shout out
Speaker 2: to the Lions for doing the hook and lateral again.
Speaker 2: I freaking love it. If I never watch another football
Speaker 2: play again. It's my favorite thing to ever see when
Speaker 2: they do that hook and lateral thing. And then somebody
Speaker 2: had they came up on my Twitter feed that the
Speaker 2: most famous one of all time. Nineteen eighty one. I
Speaker 2: was at my grandparents' house in Philadelphia. I remember it
Speaker 2: like was yesterday. Dawn Straw to duch Tony Nathan down
Speaker 2: the sidelines, touchdown. It was the Kellen Wins logan, what
Speaker 2: a great game with that hook and why don't people,
Speaker 2: why don't these teams do this?
Speaker 1: Ever? Unstoppable open.
Speaker 2: You throw a six hours pass on a third and
Speaker 2: fifteen and you do it. Even the Jets did it
Speaker 2: a couple of years ago with Wayne Forbet or something.
Speaker 2: I remember, It's like, it works. Why don't they do it?
Speaker 1: It's unstoppable Boyse State in that famous Bowl game against
Speaker 1: Oklahoma hook and ladder and the Statue of Liberty in
Speaker 1: the same game, and then America.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you why they don't do it. It's
Speaker 2: because the NFL coaches are so conservative and scared that
Speaker 2: they're going to fumble the ball on the ladder or
Speaker 2: so they can God forbid we should have a turnover. Yeah,
Speaker 2: but God forbid, you should score a touchdown.
Speaker 1: Also, your dumbasses, Well just think about you just named
Speaker 1: one of the most famous NFL games of all time,
Speaker 1: the Chargers and the Dolphins and the Orange Bowl and
Speaker 1: that you know in the early eighties and that Boise
Speaker 1: State Oklahoma game. What do they have in common? The
Speaker 1: hook and lateral, like that's what we most remember them.
Speaker 1: But Detroit has run it beautifully. And then Travis Kelcey
Speaker 1: doesn't do the hook in lateral, he just ad libs
Speaker 1: in the middle of his reception. He's like, ah, he
Speaker 1: just throws the ball bag somebody I when it.
Speaker 3: Caught lateral back to too. That was another one where
Speaker 3: it wasn't planning. Remember the sun Nay game in the
Speaker 3: snow where I forget who he threw it to, but
Speaker 3: the guy kind of get caught. There was nowhere to go,
Speaker 3: so he just screwed it. I'll throw it to Allen
Speaker 3: now and you know, reach for the end zone, which
Speaker 3: I actually think it shouldn't matter, but that's like a
Speaker 3: signature MVP MOO. I actually think that goes a long
Speaker 3: way into like him being the MVP. We talked about
Speaker 3: these Heisman moments, which is completely ridiculous, But I actually
Speaker 3: think that moment, like, oh my god, Alan's doing everything.
Speaker 3: He's extending for touchdowns. I actually think that matters, which
Speaker 3: is crazy.
Speaker 1: It's so funny you say that, Will because just as
Speaker 1: you were bringing it up in my head, I was
Speaker 1: deciding do I make a mocking remark at how and yeah,
Speaker 1: and then everybody lost their mind and decided to ignore
Speaker 1: all Lamar Jackson dats and Josh Allen is now the
Speaker 1: runaway MVP, like got to like minus nine hundred after that.
Speaker 1: You know how he had that three game stretch where
Speaker 1: he was scoring all these touchdowns and he did that
Speaker 1: Laar Jackson on the cusp of the greatest passer rating
Speaker 1: in the history of the NFL. All right, I'll oh,
Speaker 1: we do the teaser. First favorite Ace Favorite two legs
Speaker 1: six point teaser this week is.
Speaker 4: Gil Could I share something really quick about the teasers
Speaker 4: that I've had success with over the last few years
Speaker 4: and this year I shared what I've done and it's
Speaker 4: really helped a lot, and that's using the Wong teaser
Speaker 4: but at the close, waiting till the close, not looking
Speaker 4: to get out ahead, meaning when you bet a teaser,
Speaker 4: you don't want to beat the clothes. You want the
Speaker 4: line to be easy fishing as possible, right, because you
Speaker 4: want the game to fall near the line, so you're
Speaker 4: not trying to beat any kind of number. What you're
Speaker 4: hoping for is that the line's very efficient. You want
Speaker 4: it to be as sharp as like. You're hoping that
Speaker 4: thirst close as possible, and the game lands near that number.
Speaker 4: So I don't want to bet it early and get
Speaker 4: down on a plus one and half that then closes
Speaker 4: plus three because it's no longer a loong. So what
Speaker 4: I would do is I waited till about ten minutes
Speaker 4: to kick off on Sunday, and if it fit into
Speaker 4: the wong, I bet it. If it was like a
Speaker 4: four o'clock game, unless I had an out that gave
Speaker 4: me an open end teaser, I wouldn't even use it.
Speaker 4: Or if it was a Sunday night or Monday night,
Speaker 4: I wouldn't tie ahead. I would only put an open
Speaker 4: end teaser because I would only use the wong that
Speaker 4: was at the close, like if that number was and
Speaker 4: at the sharper books, you know what I mean, Not
Speaker 4: like I wasn't looking for if one book had it
Speaker 4: or two books had it, it had to be the
Speaker 4: sharpest books a Wong teaser about ten minutes before kickoff.
Speaker 4: That was the close. I had so much success with that,
Speaker 4: about twenty units of profit doing that, just just that
Speaker 4: and like no handicap, no nothing, wait until about ten
Speaker 4: off and just teasing the one, one and a half
Speaker 4: two's I mean the one and a half, two and
Speaker 4: two and a half and the eight and a half,
Speaker 4: eights and seven and a half's down. That's it, And
Speaker 4: it worked out well the last couple of years, and
Speaker 4: I'm like, this year, I'm going to talk about it
Speaker 4: and hopefully if someone sharp out there tells me where
Speaker 4: I'm wrong. Maybe I'm just getting lucky. But to me,
Speaker 4: it just made sense that with the teaser, I'm not
Speaker 4: trying to get out ahead of any kind of number.
Speaker 4: I'm not trying to beat any other sharp to a number.
Speaker 4: I'm actually hoping the numbers on point and as sharp
Speaker 4: as possible so the game lands close. So it just
Speaker 4: made sense to me, and it worked out well.
Speaker 1: Loongs by the way, let me just interact, because we
Speaker 1: always assume people know, but maybe there's some new listeners.
Speaker 1: Stanford Wong pseudonym for John Ferguson a dude who lived
Speaker 1: in southern California wrote the book on this one of
Speaker 1: the most famous books on sports betting, under the pseudonym
Speaker 1: Stanford Wong, and he identified at that time the most
Speaker 1: profitable teaser legs what as just said dogs from one
Speaker 1: and a half two and a half home ar road
Speaker 1: home favorites of seven and a half to eight and
Speaker 1: a half teas down through the seven and three obviously
Speaker 1: sevens and threes with the two point conversions, that's changed
Speaker 1: a little bit, but not so much that it's a
Speaker 1: massive thing. And the other part that we never really
Speaker 1: include but we should with the wrong thing is that
Speaker 1: it is total dependent, right, like if the total was eighty,
Speaker 1: you would never valuables if the totals forty. Obviously I'm
Speaker 1: exaggerating what you can. Okay, obviously we're not.
Speaker 3: I'm not giving credit to uh former Yankee pitcher Chinning Wong.
Speaker 3: I thought he was the one that created it. So
Speaker 3: I'm glad you clarified that.
Speaker 1: It's like, yeah, it was. It was born in Taiwan.
Speaker 2: As a matter of fact, that's the way. If you
Speaker 2: dig into what Ace is saying, that's interesting. A So
Speaker 2: what you're saying basically is let's say you have a
Speaker 2: team that's plus two and a half early in the week,
Speaker 2: and now all this right, no, I understand, and then
Speaker 2: by Sunday morning, now it's a pick them or the
Speaker 2: other team's favored by one. Right, so all the money
Speaker 2: is coming on that other team. Now what you're saying is,
Speaker 2: I will I won't take that plus eight and a
Speaker 2: half early in the week. And maybe that makes sense
Speaker 2: because now but you're gonna say, oh wait a second, already,
Speaker 2: it's it's pick them. I would have had eight and
Speaker 2: a half points instead of six points.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 2: However, all the smart money was coming to move the
Speaker 2: line down to pick them, So that team that you
Speaker 2: have ad may not be as valuable.
Speaker 4: I'm just I'm just I'm spitting ball exactly exactly right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's possible that that's what's kind of going on
Speaker 2: there maybe, and that's why those weren't as lucrative wears
Speaker 2: on the other side if it was pick and then
Speaker 2: it goes up to two and a half. Right, So
Speaker 2: now you're getting Now what are you getting.
Speaker 4: You're getting the favorites the sharp side, and you're teasing
Speaker 4: the dog. You're going opposite the sharp move that that way.
Speaker 2: Right, But on the other side, you're going with the
Speaker 2: sharp move, so I guess it depends. It's interesting, though,
Speaker 2: very interesting.
Speaker 3: What is the karate actually the karate where like do
Speaker 3: you use the strength of the opponent against them? That's
Speaker 3: almost like the same thinking where the sharper the line,
Speaker 3: the more valuable the teaser is.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the more efficient the number.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, I agree.
Speaker 2: Yeah, But why are we saying for sure that the
Speaker 2: I'm just trying to dig into this a little bit.
Speaker 2: I'm just saying, why are we saying that it's sharp
Speaker 2: for we're saying it's always the sharpest ten minutes before post.
Speaker 2: But what you're saying is you gave away. You gave
Speaker 2: away a plus two and a half on Tuesday that
Speaker 2: you could had plus eight and a half when that
Speaker 2: game ten minutes before is pick them. You'd have eight
Speaker 2: and a half points of value versus six points of
Speaker 2: value in that case, though, are you happy or are
Speaker 2: you said that you missed out on it?
Speaker 4: No, I'm not sad I missed out on it because
Speaker 4: at that point, I don't think I'm going to use
Speaker 4: the teaser to help me. If I like that side,
Speaker 4: then we know that the teaser helps you going through
Speaker 4: those key numbers. So yes, I missed going through those
Speaker 4: key numbers. But if the line moved the other way,
Speaker 4: then I saved the bet that wasn't I would have
Speaker 4: got a worse number. It didn't fit in the wong
Speaker 4: So that balance is out, meaning yeah, it dropped down
Speaker 4: to where now I can't wan get I would have
Speaker 4: got a better number. But what if from minus from
Speaker 4: plus two it goes up the other way?
Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
Speaker 4: Yes, now I would want it. I would just take up.
Speaker 1: Four saying todd as because you're saying it correctly, todd Like.
Speaker 1: In some cases it helps you. In some cases it doesn't, right,
Speaker 1: is what you're saying, todd And So what I'm what
Speaker 1: I'm getting from Ace is is that he is getting
Speaker 1: the best of half of it and willing to let
Speaker 1: the other half go.
Speaker 4: Is that correct? Yes? Yes, So I'm not guessing like
Speaker 4: I don't want to guess. I don't want There's no
Speaker 4: handicapped except for the total, like you touched on, the
Speaker 4: only thing I'm hoping for is that the line is
Speaker 4: on point, that it's as efficient as possible, and that's
Speaker 4: the close. Usually we know the weather we know what
Speaker 4: the sharps are betting on. We know what like all
Speaker 4: the information as much as we have access todes factored
Speaker 4: into the closing line, So it should be the most
Speaker 4: accurate reflection we have of true implied win probability. Right,
Speaker 4: the closing number at least should most times than not
Speaker 4: should reflect the true implied win problem, the least compared
Speaker 4: to the over I mean the opener, because we don't
Speaker 4: know at the opener the exact weather, we don't know
Speaker 4: the exact injuries, we don't know all those things over early,
Speaker 4: but late we know all those things that's already baked
Speaker 4: into the number, baked into the cake. So the line
Speaker 4: should be as efficient as possible near the close, at
Speaker 4: least that's supposedly the goal, right, if you're looking to
Speaker 4: balance outcomes more than you know, balance the money, which
Speaker 4: is almost impossible to do.
Speaker 1: That's that's just it would be an interesting to look
Speaker 1: back on, like to actually get back on it and
Speaker 1: see would they have won anyway? Right or would they
Speaker 1: have lost anyway? That kind of thing, Because yes, if
Speaker 1: you had a two and a half point dog early
Speaker 1: in the week that you passed on and then it
Speaker 1: became like Todd said them, Well, that team might not
Speaker 1: be as good as you excuse me, that.
Speaker 2: Team, but then yeah, yeah, But gilli Ace's argument is
Speaker 2: that the pick them is a solid number because it's
Speaker 2: ten minutes before post. So wouldn't you love to have
Speaker 2: eight and a half instead of six points with a
Speaker 2: solid line that is pick them? So you're kind of
Speaker 2: arguing against yourself in that case case. Now you may
Speaker 2: you also arguing for yourself in the other case. But
Speaker 2: I'm just spit bowling here because I think it's interesting
Speaker 2: what you're saying. But my point is that in the
Speaker 2: Pickham case, you're saying pickam is the most true number.
Speaker 2: Right in that case because the two and a half
Speaker 2: from early in the week is not really a true number.
Speaker 2: The pick them is the true number.
Speaker 4: So it should be it should be more times than
Speaker 4: not like the later number at least you know that's
Speaker 4: how they deal with this. Agree with you get closing
Speaker 4: line value, right, So.
Speaker 2: I'm agreeing with you. So what I'm saying is, though,
Speaker 2: in the Pickham case, when it goes from plus two
Speaker 2: and a half to pick them, you really did screw
Speaker 2: yourself in the sense that you didn't get that bet
Speaker 2: because you're saying that Pickham is really correct, and so
Speaker 2: it would have had the eight.
Speaker 4: Here's the flip side of that coin when it goes
Speaker 4: to four. Now what I've done, I don't want to
Speaker 4: wing it up the plus ten. That's that.
Speaker 1: I'm oh, I see what you're you're saying, Todd. It's
Speaker 1: what I said before. He has to be willing to
Speaker 1: let some of them go. That's the nices It worked
Speaker 1: out for him by.
Speaker 4: Being very selective. I wouldn't have ten, eight, nine teasers.
Speaker 4: I would have two or three on Sunday. That's that's
Speaker 4: how it worked out. I'd have a lot lesser volume.
Speaker 1: And and there's there's like let's say, let's say it
Speaker 1: was a three and a half point dog, right, that
Speaker 1: ends up being a two and a half point dog.
Speaker 1: That becomes a teaser for him, and thinking then on
Speaker 1: his case would have to be, well, I'm getting eight
Speaker 1: and a half on what was a three and a
Speaker 1: half right? Like it's so there's some go for you,
Speaker 1: some yeah, all of it.
Speaker 2: I said, what would happen? Yeah, that would I'd love
Speaker 2: to see it.
Speaker 4: I'd love to see it. That's why I'm putting it
Speaker 4: out there. I hope someone a lot smarter than me
Speaker 4: goes through the last couple of years, and and so
Speaker 4: is where I'm wrong or if I just got lucky,
Speaker 4: you know what I mean? Like I said, I had
Speaker 4: success over the last two or three seasons, and since
Speaker 4: I had a losing year this year, I said, I'm
Speaker 4: gonna tell you what's worked for me. So if you
Speaker 4: want to put teaser in, because I don't, I don't
Speaker 4: use them for subscriber you know, I mean, I don't
Speaker 4: sell the teas great topic.
Speaker 2: It's a great, very super interesting topic.
Speaker 1: Let's uh, we don't have this.
Speaker 4: Week's teaser, this week's teaser. In New England. I like
Speaker 4: New England a lot because all the talk about you
Speaker 4: lose and you get the number one draft pick, so
Speaker 4: that the what about the veterans, what about the guys
Speaker 4: on that team that are like fuck you excuse me,
Speaker 4: Like I don't want you to get the number one
Speaker 4: draft pick. I'm going to show up on Sunday. I
Speaker 4: don't want you to get them pissed at my management.
Speaker 4: But you don't know what's really going on. So I
Speaker 4: don't like that. And then all the talk, you know,
Speaker 4: Josh Allen and the starters are going to play bad,
Speaker 4: but for how long? How long are they going to play?
Speaker 4: I like the Patriots teased up. You talked about how
Speaker 4: the total matters. This is a very low total at
Speaker 4: thirty eight, below that forty, so I think every single
Speaker 4: point matters. And then I'm going to tease Atlanta down.
Speaker 4: I think they're gonna give us an effort. You have
Speaker 4: a ton of injuries on the Carolina Panthers defense. You
Speaker 4: got Bryce Young who's starting. Give me the Atlanta Falcons
Speaker 4: to get the W at home as well. It sounds square,
Speaker 4: but it's in that long take it down to two, Toddy.
Speaker 2: By the way, it's funny that what Ace is saying.
Speaker 2: But if you remember in great annals of Megapod history
Speaker 2: two after not your great season last year, but two
Speaker 2: years ago, when I won by half a game, and
Speaker 2: you keep whining about DeMar Hamlin, if you guys remember correctly,
Speaker 2: does it and all you geniuses said there was no
Speaker 2: way Lovey Smith and Davis Mills could get to could
Speaker 2: beat some other crap team they were playing. They weren't
Speaker 2: going to try, And I kept saying, no, these guys
Speaker 2: are going to try. This isn't like the NBA. These
Speaker 2: are NFL players. They're going to try. So fourth and twenty,
Speaker 2: Davis Mills hits the guy for the touchdown and they
Speaker 2: win the game. And I had a great laugh at
Speaker 2: their expense in that one.
Speaker 4: You have memories, though, have you like never drank or
Speaker 4: done a drug in your life, But this guy's the
Speaker 4: best memory I've for see them my life. He's talking
Speaker 4: about honestly, good lord, I'm impressed. I love it.
Speaker 2: Hey, this was this was the game that came down
Speaker 2: to me beating Gilly two years ago in the megapod
Speaker 2: because they were.
Speaker 4: Telling detail is amazing, you're detailing these They were.
Speaker 2: Saying, Lovey Smith and the Texans aren't gonna try because
Speaker 2: they want to get a better draft pick. And they
Speaker 2: were giving me the whole song and dance and physic
Speaker 2: was telling me everything, Oh no, it's impossible. I'm like,
Speaker 2: no way, Lovey Smith's gonna player. And they ended up
Speaker 2: winning that they should. They didn't need the fourth and twenty.
Speaker 2: They were head by like fourteen and the third quarter
Speaker 2: and blew.
Speaker 3: But anyways, look at the last two weeks, look at
Speaker 3: the Giants last week, Like I think, I think you
Speaker 3: guys are one hundred percent correct. These players, half of
Speaker 3: them aren't even gonna be on the team next year.
Speaker 3: And you just in football, it's just too dangerous to
Speaker 3: go out there say how we're gonna lose. You're gonna
Speaker 3: get hurt, You're gonna get somebody else hurt. So yeah,
Speaker 3: the players, as we've seen, they uh, they only know
Speaker 3: one one speed, one way. Your instincts take over and
Speaker 3: they want to win.
Speaker 4: Great point great, every one.
Speaker 1: Of every one of Todd's memories is I'm right they
Speaker 1: were wrong. That's every That's the common threat of every
Speaker 1: one of Todd's embery, every damn one of them.
Speaker 2: So many of those. So that's the problem. It's very difficult. Okay,
Speaker 2: I'll t Friday at Numbers games. Well, my first the
Speaker 2: first thing is I quickly look and see who's the
Speaker 2: guest on Should Have bet More podcast, And if it's
Speaker 2: not Caitlin Clark, then I move on to another podcast.
Speaker 2: That's how I do it.
Speaker 3: Give us your teer, my teasers, the Pats as well.
Speaker 2: I just don't. I'm going to say one word why
Speaker 2: why the Pats can't lose by more than eight? One word?
Speaker 1: True?
Speaker 2: Bit Ski enough said, h next thing. Next team is
Speaker 2: Washington Commies. I think that Gilly is going to be
Speaker 2: rooting his ass off on Sunday for the Commies to
Speaker 2: pick him. All they gotta do is win the game.
Speaker 2: If you lose to the Dallas Cowboys, don't even show
Speaker 2: up here for the megapod next week, okay, because we
Speaker 2: will be laughing our asses off. If those Commies with
Speaker 2: Joe Gibbs and Barry Bonds and all the rest of
Speaker 2: the people you love lose to the Dallas Cowboys, not
Speaker 2: gonna happen. Commanders pick them, thank you.
Speaker 4: They were minus four and a half just twenty four
Speaker 4: hours ago, I believe on the first, and now they're
Speaker 4: up to six and a half. So definitely agreement. Well
Speaker 4: you a lot of sharp money.
Speaker 2: I'm going with the new ACE system.
Speaker 1: I'm a little worried about that game, by the way,
Speaker 1: A little worried will.
Speaker 3: One and a half for Pittsburgh and Cincy.
Speaker 2: Two.
Speaker 3: We gave the two Steelers, absolutely, Steelers up to eight.
Speaker 3: And what do we have on Falcons this Falcons eight
Speaker 3: eight and a half.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I took them in two about minus two, all.
Speaker 3: Right, Steelers, Falcon's pretty easy for me. I think the Steelers,
Speaker 3: if nothing else with you know, a mini buy off,
Speaker 3: a three game losing streak. Tomlin, you can forget the
Speaker 3: the give up punts, which had been just an epic
Speaker 3: epidemic for him the last month. He's a motivator, gets
Speaker 3: his teams to play hard. They're home, They're gonna want
Speaker 3: to win this game, so they'll keep it with an eight,
Speaker 3: I would think, And I'll pair that with Atlanta, who
Speaker 3: I do think at home bounces back. And if you're
Speaker 3: at landa man, and you missed the game in the
Speaker 3: playoffs by a tie breaker, a half game or game whatever, man,
Speaker 3: should we have started panics earlier? Should we have just
Speaker 3: called time out against Washington? That's going to be a
Speaker 3: very long offseason for a Rahee Morrison company.
Speaker 1: What's the I gave out?
Speaker 2: Would you say?
Speaker 3: Two and a half?
Speaker 1: Two and a half? All right, I'm Doingburg, Pittsburgh, Minnesota
Speaker 1: is mine?
Speaker 2: Sorry, Deelers plus Steelers plus eight with Minnesota plus eight
Speaker 2: and a half, you got it. By the way, last week,
Speaker 2: if Yann's were watching on my Twitter, I put up
Speaker 2: one of the best prop picks I've ever made. We
Speaker 2: were standing in a refreshment line on the five hundred
Speaker 2: level and it was it was a long line, and
Speaker 2: I said, look, you gotta take it. It was Rothless
Speaker 2: Burger under two and a half touchdowns, minus three ten. Now, granted,
Speaker 2: I don't like giving out minus three ten, but I
Speaker 2: didn't even see roethl'spurger throw one last week.
Speaker 1: You said it was a long line.
Speaker 2: It was a long line.
Speaker 1: That is like half Pittsburgh half third, right, what that
Speaker 1: sounds like.
Speaker 2: By the way, we'll say this, the Steelers Stadium is
Speaker 2: the most ridiculous stadium. The lines for the concessions are
Speaker 2: so long, and you can't even walk around in the
Speaker 2: concourse because it's all jammed up, and the people don't
Speaker 2: want you to cut the line. They think you're cutting
Speaker 2: the line. It's like a log jam. It's incredibly poorly designed.
Speaker 1: How many people are screaming what's this?
Speaker 4: And that.
Speaker 2: They're saying, hey, we're trying to go down for many
Speaker 2: brothers and get herself a sandwich, and now you can't
Speaker 2: even walk around of your seat. What's get on down her? Nat?
Speaker 1: All?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 1: Final two questions of each and every megapod ace will
Speaker 1: remember these, the first of which which are the big favors,
Speaker 1: is the most likely to lose outright? The Ravens nineteen
Speaker 1: point favorites at home against the Brannis. Buccaneers fourteen point
Speaker 1: favorites at home against the Saints. Packers ten point favorites
Speaker 1: against the Bears, Broncos ten and a half point favorites
Speaker 1: against the Chiefs. Wow, Falcons eight and a half. Let's
Speaker 1: call it point favorites hosting the Panthers. And those are
Speaker 1: your choices. We are not going below that. Wow, those
Speaker 1: are huge. Which of those ace If I came to
Speaker 1: you for the future and I said, one of those
Speaker 1: teams lost outright one of those favorites, which is I almost.
Speaker 4: Wanted to say Green Bay, but the fact is they
Speaker 4: own Chicago, so it really doesn't matter what they decide
Speaker 4: to do on Sunday. I mean, we haven't gotten a
Speaker 4: confirmation on playing time, but I really don't think it matters,
Speaker 4: and so I'm gonna have to go with Kansas City.
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, you look at the team, you
Speaker 4: look at the matchup, you look at the history between
Speaker 4: these two. It's except for the fact that they have
Speaker 4: nothing to play for, except for the fact starters aren't playing.
Speaker 4: That's why this number is so high. Coupled with the
Speaker 4: must win for Denver with put so much pressure on them,
Speaker 4: give me Kansas City. I think they may look to
Speaker 4: ruin Denver's attempt, and they've owned them in the series,
Speaker 4: winning nine of the last ten. In case and I
Speaker 4: mean not the opposite of that, Denver, Denver, Denver, Yes, yes, yes.
Speaker 2: That's all right.
Speaker 3: Uh, Toddy, I agree.
Speaker 2: I mean I have that as my one of my plays.
Speaker 2: I you know, it wouldn't shock me at all if
Speaker 2: Andy Reid decided to say, hey, look, this is this
Speaker 2: is this is the big boys. Okay, enough about your
Speaker 2: bro Nicks and your Sean Payton and all that nonsense.
Speaker 2: Kansas City, would you like to change your pick that action?
Speaker 3: I actually thought, Andy Reid, man, is there a little
Speaker 3: gamesmanship here where if you give him truth, seram, who
Speaker 3: do you want in the playoffs? And I know Miami
Speaker 3: has lose too, but wouldn't you rather have Denver in
Speaker 3: the playoffs than since he's sneaking in there, who's giving
Speaker 3: you our time? We know, since he stinks on defense.
Speaker 3: But maybe there's a little bit of game theory here
Speaker 3: where Hey, Denver, you know what, what's the line you
Speaker 3: use from Eddie Murphy and SNL take it? Take take
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Spot, take the newspaper. We want you in
Speaker 3: the playoffs. We're not scared of you. Yeah, I'll go
Speaker 3: Green Bay, just because I don't know if they care.
Speaker 3: And who knows, maybe they play half, they look up
Speaker 3: at the scoreboard and they realize, hey, we're locked into
Speaker 3: our position, whatever it may be. We just pull our
Speaker 3: guys and you know, let Chicago win the game and
Speaker 3: ruin their draft position, you know, incrementally.
Speaker 1: Denver correct answer, like the MC right answer is Denver,
Speaker 1: Denver Brown. I agree with that. Who knows?
Speaker 3: That would be wild if Denver and like Miami lost
Speaker 3: and since he we look up and they're in the
Speaker 3: playoffs or even you know, Miami's in the playoffs. Man,
Speaker 3: it just doesn't feel possible.
Speaker 1: Does not Miami being alive and by the way, not
Speaker 1: like remotely alive either, right, they're like right on the doorstep, right, Okay.
Speaker 1: And then the final question, final question the vach in
Speaker 1: every podcast ace. If you had to bet a side
Speaker 1: on each and every one of those these games, but
Speaker 1: you were allowed one free pass, what game would you
Speaker 1: pass up?
Speaker 4: I'm gonna tell you, and I know you bet it,
Speaker 4: but it's Seattle and the Rams because I just don't
Speaker 4: understand it. Like I said, I thought Seattle has nothing
Speaker 4: to play for. I like that you shared the fact
Speaker 4: Gino Smith actually does. He has those contract incentives. But
Speaker 4: with the Rams having clinched the division, with McVeigh having
Speaker 4: a history of not playing his guys in this spot
Speaker 4: just one of those stayaways, Like I feel like I'm
Speaker 4: almost guessing there's no world or Seattle should be this
Speaker 4: big of a favorite against the Rams. But if the
Speaker 4: Rams aren't gonna give me an effort, I don't want
Speaker 4: to touch them either.
Speaker 3: That's a past past pass, Dotty.
Speaker 2: I don't want to be involved in the Jets and
Speaker 2: the Dolphins. I you know, this Jets team, what is
Speaker 2: this team? I don't even understand what this team is.
Speaker 2: It's so ridiculous. I mean, this team had some talent
Speaker 2: on it. The fact that first, so this coach is
Speaker 2: so bad it's like hard to believe. I mean, they
Speaker 2: should have just kept salad. They would have won more games.
Speaker 2: And I just it's a dumpster fire. This team finds
Speaker 2: a way to lose. You know, as are away, you
Speaker 2: ace to say, oh, everyone was betting on the Jets
Speaker 2: are Yeah, probably because the Jets were statistically should have
Speaker 2: won a lot more game paper. I mean, yeah, so
Speaker 2: if you if you can't, I mean what I don't.
Speaker 2: I have we ever seen a team be so off
Speaker 2: from there what they should have been. I mean they
Speaker 2: they should have at least been like an eight nine
Speaker 2: team or seven. And they're a disaster. And then Miami,
Speaker 2: you're going into that stupid stadium. By the way, you
Speaker 2: can't kick a field goal in that meadowlands. It's ridiculous
Speaker 2: that the wind is swirling around and everything. I don't
Speaker 2: like it at all.
Speaker 3: Well, you guys can have fun with the Giants and
Speaker 3: the Eagles. I want nothing to do with that one.
Speaker 3: That's my game.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of choices here, man, I'm gonna say
Speaker 1: Niners Cardinals, Niners Cardinals because Arnolds have nothing to play
Speaker 1: for now. And uh, the Niners have the greatest substitute
Speaker 1: quarterback of all time when he comes into a game
Speaker 1: when the when the starting quarterback gets hurt. Josh Dobbs
Speaker 1: the greatest come into a game quarterback of all time.
Speaker 1: But apparently when he has a week of practice, he
Speaker 1: just sucks. Yeah.
Speaker 3: But you know what I like, I'll throw you like
Speaker 3: one good inning and that if you've vote out there
Speaker 3: for a second inning, He's just getting bombed all over
Speaker 3: the building. It is very strange revenge game. By the way,
Speaker 3: his former team the Cardinals, So who knows?
Speaker 1: Revenge revenge spot for Josh Cobbs. I will say this,
Speaker 1: there wasn't more interesting pick to make here, which is
Speaker 1: Lions Vikings. I don't fucking know. I have no idea. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the most meaningful game of them all. I really don't know, man,
Speaker 1: if nothing would surprise me about that, nothing at all,
Speaker 1: including like a double digit win on both sides.
Speaker 4: Is Baltimore the best team in the NFL? Do we agree?
Speaker 1: I have him as the best. I have him as
Speaker 1: the best.
Speaker 4: I'm a future, I have a future. I just want
Speaker 4: to know you.
Speaker 3: You got six best team of all time according to
Speaker 3: Aaron Shots, right, Toddy.
Speaker 2: Okay, I have him at maybe like six and a half?
Speaker 1: Really really true? Is that what he's saying again this year?
Speaker 3: Wow, I'll go back and listen to it, but I'm
Speaker 3: I'm ninety nine percent sure that's what he said.
Speaker 1: His numbers having that Yeah, yeah, last year he had
Speaker 1: both the twenty twenty three Ravens and the twenty twenty
Speaker 1: three Niners. As two of his greatest teams of all time.
Speaker 1: And then Patrick Mahomes puts on his cape and that's
Speaker 1: the end of that. So we've done all we can do. Ace,
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Man, appreciate it great seeing you.
Speaker 4: Thank you for having me, Thank you for sing I
Speaker 4: love you guys.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 4: Thank you so much for having me on. Always look
Speaker 4: forward to it. I know how many guests you have
Speaker 4: and how many are waiting in the wings for it,
Speaker 4: so I appreciate you having me on. Man. I hope
Speaker 4: we passed along some winners and kept the guest spot
Speaker 4: hot for the viewers and supporters. Brother, Thank you, Ace.
Speaker 3: I love your teaser strategy too. I know Todd doesn't
Speaker 3: like it that much and doesn't seem to like you
Speaker 3: that much, but I really like it.
Speaker 4: I didn't say that well, thank you, will I had
Speaker 4: something personal. I don't know. I think I rubbed them
Speaker 4: wrong the wrong way one day. I don't know what
Speaker 4: it is. I keep trying to get on his side the.
Speaker 2: Public, say, Ace, I'd like the public please offer you
Speaker 2: the full time guest spot and we'll kick out Willie
Speaker 2: next year, because that's you know, let's be honest, You're
Speaker 2: way better, I think, not even closed.
Speaker 4: I guess guess the parents only trust me. He follows
Speaker 4: a lot more. He's gonna share a lot more NFL
Speaker 4: insights than I would. So definitely need Will on the show.
Speaker 2: Not about the insights, it's about the personality. Yeah, he's
Speaker 2: He has a very poor sinister personality where he tells
Speaker 2: lies and I don't like it.
Speaker 1: Listen. Only have the space to talk on this podcast,
Speaker 1: totally all right.
Speaker 2: I think I would you change the podcasted.
Speaker 1: More Will's on, Will's that not v Will Hill on
Speaker 1: Twitter to E's and the e Todds at t wish
Speaker 1: dev A's your Greek underscore gambler. Yes, sir, yes, sir,
Speaker 1: my man, thanks for listening, Good luck with all your
Speaker 1: bets week eighteen, and at Ashen, thanks.
Speaker 4: For what.
Speaker 2: Bann b b bang bun dot turn