1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 2: Amazing watching shares of in Nvidia today. We were down 6 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:18,919 Speaker 2: one it was over down over three and a half 7 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: percent this morning when the headline first broke US planning 8 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 2: new Aichip export controls aimed at Invidia right between the eyes. 9 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 2: But this has been such a story stock and remarkable. 10 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:37,480 Speaker 2: With this black Rock call on AI today, it's cut 11 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 2: that loss in half. It's down one and a half 12 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 2: percent here. It's almost like nothing ever happened. But interesting. 13 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:44,880 Speaker 2: It's a story that brings us back to October. You 14 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 2: remember the first announcement of restricting sales of certain high technology, 15 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 2: specifically super computing chips semiconductors, which really make the world 16 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 2: go round boy, as we have learned from COVID and 17 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 2: now in trying to keep them out of the hand 18 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 2: of the Chinese under the Commerce Department proposal. As I 19 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 2: read here on the terminal expected in July. 20 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:07,039 Speaker 3: This is. 21 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 2: Not something that's been officially announced. The US would revise 22 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 2: export controls to make it harder to sell some chips 23 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 2: to China without a license, aimed in part and in 24 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 2: Vidia's a eight hundred chip, which the company designed after 25 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 2: the controls were first announced in October. So we're the 26 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 2: White House is literally trying to keep up with the 27 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 2: evolution of this technology, questions about what it means for 28 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 2: our relationship with China, but also what it means for 29 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 2: in video. And that's where we start with Bloomberg's Kungin Sabani, 30 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence reporter Kungent. It's great to have you with 31 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 2: us here. My first question when I hear this and 32 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 2: I see the sort of limited or muted stock reaction 33 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 2: at this time of day, is you know, we keep 34 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 2: hearing that in Vidia is sold out. You can't get 35 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 2: these cards there are There are so many data centers 36 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 2: that want to upgrade their technology that I wonder if 37 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 2: they simply replace the business lost from China. Is that possible? 38 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:12,080 Speaker 3: That is exactly possible, and hence the muted stock reaction. 39 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 3: It's in very line with our views that we put 40 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 3: out yesterday night when the story first broke out. China 41 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 3: is an important market, but what these sanctions mean is 42 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,359 Speaker 3: it will be more of a lost opportunity for upside 43 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,639 Speaker 3: rather than a near term significant impact on their earnings. 44 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 2: As I read here, China represents up to twenty five percent, 45 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 2: almost a quarter of Nvidia's data center revenue. Almost brought 46 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 2: me back to New England there data revenue and in 47 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:47,079 Speaker 2: the long term any event of exports to that country 48 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 2: would represent a loss of opportunity. Twenty five percent sounds 49 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 2: like a lot. Is that how much in demand these 50 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 2: cards are? 51 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 3: Absolutely yes, and I guess like you said, in the 52 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 3: near term there is so much demand from the US 53 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 3: cloud service providers that they just cannot keep up, so 54 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 3: there would not be any significant impact in the near term. 55 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 3: But yes, in the long term, this could have been 56 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 3: a large market in absence of bands, which if the 57 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:18,799 Speaker 3: bands are exhaustive, could limit their upside. 58 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 2: I'm sure you could speak over all of our heads, 59 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:23,519 Speaker 2: your kunjin, but give our listeners a sense of why 60 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 2: the A eight hundred ship I refer to it as 61 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 2: a card is so important here and has really changed 62 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 2: the landscape for AI. 63 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 3: Also to remember, Nvidia has a monopolistic share when it 64 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 3: comes to high end GPU. In fact, in twenty twenty two, 65 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 3: they had ninety five percent share of the units sold. 66 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 3: So there is no other alternative today that can beat 67 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 3: and come out with the GPU with that performance. So 68 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 3: that's why this is very important. So if you're running 69 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 3: a high end cloud data center, you definitely and if 70 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 3: you're running generative AI type workloades, you have to go 71 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 3: with the media, hence the very big importance. 72 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 2: That's why we hear that every data center on the 73 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 2: planet will eventually need to upgrade these cards. Right, yep, 74 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 2: there's no second in Vidia, is it AMD? Does anybody 75 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 2: other Vidia make this stuff? 76 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 3: Well, AMD is the closest second viable alternative that could 77 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 3: be possible, and they are coming up with their own 78 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 3: AIGPU scheduled to come out end of this year that 79 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 3: people are eyeing on. But yes, as of today, it's 80 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 3: almost the only option that you can buy from a 81 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 3: chip supplier. 82 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,040 Speaker 2: So the bottom feeders will be at it. They smell 83 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 2: an opportunity. Thank you for coming on, Counjrin Subani reporting 84 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 2: for Bloomberg Intelligence, which does such great work on this stuff, 85 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 2: and a little peak inside of what we're really talking 86 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 2: about here. We wanted to set the foundation before we 87 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 2: spoke with Max Bocchus, the former senator and of course 88 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 2: former ambassador to China, is back with us on Bloomberg Radio. 89 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 2: Mister ambassador, thanks for being with us. Is the administration 90 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 2: taking the right approach by cutting off this supply to China. 91 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 4: Well, it's it's a very delicate balance. The concern clearly 92 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 4: is to try to reduce the growth of the PLA 93 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 4: that does not sent chips that helped the Chinese military. 94 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 4: It's okay to send chips that don't help the Chinese military, 95 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 4: but these are very high end chips and they clearly 96 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 4: will help the PLA the Chinese military. The big driver 97 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 4: here is AI. AI is the flavor of the day, 98 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 4: the flavor of the month, the flavor of the year. 99 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 4: Everything is AI these days as its cloud services, it's 100 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 4: and so many other adaptations and so and video makes 101 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:47,359 Speaker 4: you know the A one hundred, which is the best, 102 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 4: and then because of the export control on the one hundred, 103 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 4: they developed eight hundred which are not quite as powerful. 104 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 4: We get quite powerful. And now the US Commerce Department saying, well, no, 105 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 4: those do it. Eight hundred. They're just as bad too, 106 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:06,359 Speaker 4: because they performed the same functions. So that's what's going on. Here, 107 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 4: it's and it's a delicate balance. I do think administration 108 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 4: is it's done a pretty good job trying to thread 109 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 4: that needle. On the other hand, we're now moving into 110 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 4: an eric of not the decoupling, but the risking. The 111 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 4: risking really is defying a category, not just individual, but 112 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 4: a category. And I'm quite concerned that we talk about categories. 113 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 4: We tend to be over brought in our efforts to 114 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 4: restrict technology to China or any country. There's another problem here. 115 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 4: We just this is on the heels of Secretary Blncoln's 116 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 4: trip to to Beijing with a lot of nice sounding 117 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 4: words and two companies, two countries is going to work together, 118 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 4: et cetera. The lo behold. Afterwards we see the statement 119 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,840 Speaker 4: by President Biden to President she's a dictator. That doesn't 120 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 4: help much. Then, and now we add new export control 121 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 4: restrictions and that's gonna not gonna help very much either. 122 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 4: So really, from the Chinese perspective, the Chinese think, gee, 123 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 4: you know, we have these agreements. We're not going to 124 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 4: upset the Bounce, upset the Apple Guard here. We're going 125 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 4: to manage this relationship. The new Americans are going to 126 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 4: do something stupid, like the like President Biden's comment, I 127 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 4: won't say that's stupid, but it truly didn't help. Then 128 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 4: add to that, now you're going to add slap more 129 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 4: expert controls on it. We just don't trust you reach 130 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 4: these agreements and then you go do these things. Now, 131 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 4: clearly we have to protect our national security. This is 132 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 4: probably an action we should take, but it's it's not 133 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 4: it's not a freebe China might react. You know what 134 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 4: they did with Micron. They said, Okay, Micron, We're not 135 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 4: gonna buy any more of your stuff if they could 136 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 4: do another Micron. 137 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 2: Well, that's right, look at you. There was a lot there. 138 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 2: Uh mister ambassador right. I'm glad you brought it up though, 139 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 2: because there are a lot of questions about, you know, 140 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 2: mixed messages here. We understand, and Bloomberg in fact broke 141 00:07:57,880 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 2: the story that Janet Yellen is going to be visiting 142 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 2: China in the near term. We know the Commerce Secretary 143 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 2: wants to go Gina Romando. This is a Commerce Department 144 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 2: initiative that we're talking about here with AI and President 145 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 2: Biden apparently wants to meet with President she again. So 146 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 2: how do we have all this set ones, Bill Gates 147 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 2: is trapesing around China and then to your point, we 148 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 2: drop the hammer on something like this. 149 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 4: Well, I think it's changing subjects slightly. It's very good 150 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 4: that Bill Gates went to China. It's good that Jimmy 151 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 4: Diamond went to China and Ellen Elon Musk. It's good 152 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 4: that US business titans go to China, talk to China, 153 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 4: talk of Chinese leadership. You know, that's because we have 154 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:44,719 Speaker 4: to build a strong commercial, trade, investment relationships. And that's 155 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 4: all very helpful. Now. It's also very good to strengthen 156 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 4: and build on the Blanken trip with Romando visit or 157 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,680 Speaker 4: Jenna Ellen visit over to China. And they want that. 158 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 4: The Chinese want that. We certainly want that because the 159 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 4: more we're talking to each other, the better. It's stunning, frankly, 160 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 4: virtually no cabinet secretary is visited China in many years. 161 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 4: Blincoln was the first in about four years. It's because 162 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 4: communication has been cut off so much between our two countries. Now, 163 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 4: I'm not saying communication is going to solve everything, but 164 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 4: if we're not communicating, visiting, we're not talking, that's clearly 165 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:22,679 Speaker 4: going to make things worse. I'm concerned right now though, 166 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:27,439 Speaker 4: that these things pile on the President's statements and you know, 167 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 4: more export controls, There's going to come a point where 168 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 4: tyers are going to think, ginge, I don't know, maybe 169 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 4: we shouldn't be want to come over and so forth. 170 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:37,559 Speaker 4: I don't think we're there yet, but it's part of 171 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:38,319 Speaker 4: the calculus. 172 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 2: Well, that's why I wonder you clearly can see this 173 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 2: from both sides, and your experience in China informs your 174 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 2: view there in a way that most people probably would 175 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 2: not understand. Does the administration need to do a better 176 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:52,320 Speaker 2: job with its messaging? And I'll note that this is 177 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,960 Speaker 2: not an official announcement. This is coming from sources, people 178 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 2: familiar with the matter, talking with the news media. So 179 00:09:57,760 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 2: I suspect there might have been a different rollout. But 180 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 2: should we not assume that the administration gave Beijing a 181 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 2: heads up on this? 182 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 4: No, they may have, we don't know. But it raises 183 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 4: another point. I think too few American public officials know 184 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 4: very much about China. They haven't been to China, or 185 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 4: they or if they have, it's infrequently. The more Americans generally, 186 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 4: and more American officials spend more time in China, they 187 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:29,359 Speaker 4: start to understand China a little better, especially the nuances. 188 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 4: You know, they're phrase understand importance of saving face and 189 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 4: how to negotiate, how to talk in a way that's 190 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:38,960 Speaker 4: a little more comforting to the Chinese. And I think 191 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 4: we're a little bit crude, frankly. We just go in 192 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 4: too quickly in a certain sense. We're too American in 193 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,119 Speaker 4: the sense we want to get immediate results. The Chinese 194 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:50,079 Speaker 4: they like to talk a little bit, they want to 195 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:52,680 Speaker 4: talk longer, they want to it's more nuanced, and it's 196 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 4: I think the more we understand that, the more likely 197 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 4: we're going to have a relationship that's better managed. 198 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,679 Speaker 2: That would suggest then that you do favor a meeting 199 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 2: between the two presidents sometime soon. 200 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:10,439 Speaker 4: I do very much. But and the more we don't 201 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 4: undertake actions which are controversial toward each other, the more 202 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 4: that that's some what's going to happen. I think it's 203 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 4: very important. Frankly. I like to see President y in 204 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 4: President Biden me frequently. Maybe locked in. Okay, we're going 205 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,599 Speaker 4: to meet every six months. If it's locked in, and 206 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 4: they then they then they know they have to talk 207 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 4: to each other, and that that's good because nobody wants 208 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 4: to say anything negative if you have a meeting coming 209 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 4: exactly anyway, it is human nature. I just like to 210 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 4: see more meetings. 211 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 2: We started this conversation. You put your finger on military hardware. 212 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 2: When we talk about AI with relation to China, should 213 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 2: we assume that that is what the administration is talking about. 214 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 2: We know China is not as invested as the US 215 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 2: and AI that it's a very powerful technology that we'll 216 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 2: be used in a lot of different ways. But you 217 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 2: see this as a defense. 218 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 4: Issue, absolutely, no question. We're very concerned about Chinese use 219 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 4: of AI because obviously more to use, the more sophisticated 220 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:17,319 Speaker 4: their military equipment is. And what we have to deter China. 221 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 4: Way way to deter China is make sure we develop 222 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 4: our own technologies, but make sure do we can to 223 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 4: make sure that they don't. I think I'm not and 224 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 4: they can't. But we should stop China's rise. That's impossible, 225 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,319 Speaker 4: we can't do it. But at the same time we 226 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 4: should try to limit the ability of our technology to 227 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 4: help the Chinese military. 228 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 2: A lot of these chips are talking about, regardless of 229 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 2: the designer, are being made in Taiwan, and that boy, 230 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 2: that's a complicating factor. Here when you're going to you're 231 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 2: going to keep the chips the technology away from China 232 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 2: even while they're coming out of what is technically Chinese territory. Ambassador, 233 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:56,319 Speaker 2: how do you rationalize. 234 00:12:55,840 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 4: That, Well, it's TSMC. It really holds a lot of 235 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 4: cards here because it produced such a large volume of 236 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 4: iron chips. I think that's that's good because they ship 237 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 4: a lot of chips to China, they ship a lot 238 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 4: of chips to the US worldwide, and that they have 239 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 4: such a strong market position and such an important product. 240 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 4: That's going to make it less likely that there's going 241 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 4: to be war over Taiwan, because if there is, that's 242 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,199 Speaker 4: going to totally disrupt TSMC, and that's going to have 243 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:32,719 Speaker 4: a very adverse effect on the rural economy. I don't 244 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 4: think there's going to be a war over Taiwan. China 245 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 4: doesn't want to war, US doesn't want to war. If 246 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 4: there were, it would seriously disrupt the economy generally, and 247 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 4: with TMC there in Taiwan, it makes things get worse. 248 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 2: Fascinating conversation. Uh, mister ambassador, thanks for the time, as always. 249 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 2: Max Bochus, the former Ambassador to China, former senator with 250 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 2: US here on Bloomberg's Sound On, you can read a 251 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 2: lot more about this deal forthcoming that is on the terminal. 252 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:02,599 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. 253 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the 254 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:11,560 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 255 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,959 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 256 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 257 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 258 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 2: You know it's serious when the White House calls it 259 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 2: a major speech on the schedule. That's what's happening right 260 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 2: now in Chicago, as Jordan Fabian and Reed Pickard right 261 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 2: on the terminal, President launching his most ambitious effort to 262 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 2: persuade the skeptical that the economy is actually thriving on 263 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 2: his watch. That has been a very difficult argument to 264 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 2: make so far. And we reassembled our panel with an 265 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 2: ear on Joe Biden today in Chicago. Genie Schanzeno is 266 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 2: with us and Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie, would 267 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 2: you make of the definition? I had to crack the 268 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 2: dictionary to get that A little while ago here, but 269 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 2: it does start exactly as we kind of predicted, middle out, 270 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 2: bottom up, not the top down. How do people get 271 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 2: their head around that? 272 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 5: You know, he's been saying that. We heard it in 273 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 5: the State of the Union. It's something that they have 274 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 5: been saying, and I do think it makes sense. I 275 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 5: think we have to be very careful here when we 276 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 5: look at these poles. Yes, people are not unhappy with 277 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 5: the state of the economy, inflation, or they don't give 278 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 5: Biden any much credit, I should say on the economy. 279 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 5: But if you flip this around and ask them who's 280 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 5: looking out for the working class, who's looking out for 281 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 5: regular people? Democrats and Biden have an enormous advantage. There 282 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 5: was a recent poll where their advantage is over thirty 283 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 5: points on that and Republicans are looked at as the 284 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 5: party of the wealthy and the rich. And so that's 285 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 5: why he's going to keep making this case and keep 286 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 5: talking about the economy. And this is particularly true as 287 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 5: you look at Independence and mob. The economy is not 288 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 5: just about the numbers that people on you know, Wall 289 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 5: Street and elswhere look at every day. It's about who's 290 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 5: looking out for me and my family and Democrats have 291 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 5: a huge advantage there, and the broadband is one example 292 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 5: of why they get credit there. 293 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 2: Here's the president in Chicago just moments ago. 294 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 6: My nomics is working well. I took office, the pandemic 295 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 6: was raging, and our economy was reeling. Supply chains are broken, 296 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 6: millions of people unemployed, hundreds of thousands of small business 297 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 6: on the verge of closing after so many had already closed, 298 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 6: literally hundreds of thousands on the verge of closing. 299 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 1: Today, the US has. 300 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 6: The highest economic growth rate, leading the world economies since 301 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 6: the pandemic, the highest in the world. 302 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 2: These are good lines, Rick Davis, come, no one's responding 303 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 2: to them. 304 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 7: Well, I just remember the George Bush George HW. Bush 305 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 7: reelection in nineteen ninety two, where we try to convince 306 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 7: everybody that, oh, you've got it much better than those Europeans, 307 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 7: and nobody was buying that action. 308 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 2: Look, I mean, at the end. 309 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 7: Of the day, regardless of what he says, is his 310 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 7: successes and he's had some. You know, the economy is 311 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 7: at a historic low. Consumers in a Michigan consumer sentiment 312 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 7: have been at historic lows. They don't buy the fact 313 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,120 Speaker 7: that they're better off and there's. 314 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,400 Speaker 2: All the way of keeping spending money though, and there's 315 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 2: a laundry list of. 316 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 7: You know, negative conditions that the economy's in that he's 317 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 7: suffering from. And look, thirty eight percent approval rating on 318 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 7: the economy is horrible. I mean, like, when you're looking 319 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 7: at that, you have to say what Genie was saying, 320 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 7: which is, we got to fix this. We cannot be 321 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,880 Speaker 7: re elected, even against Donald Trump potentially if our numbers 322 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 7: don't come up from this on handling the economy. 323 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 2: I guess this is a real reminder Genie as well, 324 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 2: that the stock market is not the economy. And even 325 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 2: though it's near all time highs right now, that doesn't 326 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 2: seem to be making people feel better. What about the 327 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 2: wealth effect? 328 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 5: It doesn't and you know, it doesn't have an impact 329 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,639 Speaker 5: when inflation remains as stubborn and high as it has, 330 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 5: so no matter how many times you tell people, look, 331 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 5: there are good numbers here, even the job numbers, which 332 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 5: are tremendous right now. And under Biden's watch, people go 333 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 5: to the grocery store, they buy their milk, they buy eggs, 334 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 5: and they're expensive, and so that is going to be 335 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:23,399 Speaker 5: a real huge problem. The White House knows that. But again, 336 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 5: I think we need to stress a couple things. Number 337 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 5: one is that this is a choice. Number Two, when 338 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 5: you ask independence and moderates, who's looking out for the 339 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:37,199 Speaker 5: working class and people in the middle. Democrats have a 340 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 5: huge advantage there, and that is what the Biden administration 341 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 5: is seeing. It's going to be a choice between him 342 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 5: and Trump or a Republican. They are seen as the 343 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 5: party of the wealthy, and so when you're going to 344 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 5: be a fighting for some votes in the middle, He's 345 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,160 Speaker 5: going to keep stressing this. It's going to be about 346 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 5: the idea of the cultural aspect of this, not necessarily 347 00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 5: the cold, hard numbers. 348 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,480 Speaker 2: It's been interesting, Rick, and the President just touched on this. 349 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 2: He actually has been hitting this quite a bit as 350 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 2: a flate. The Republicans who have opposed his economic agenda 351 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 2: find themselves, in some cases celebrating it when the money 352 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,640 Speaker 2: comes home. And you've seen this movie before. The President 353 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 2: just name checked the senator from Alabama. 354 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 6: Let's bring along some converts. People strenuously opposed voting against 355 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 6: it when we had this going on, they were this 356 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 6: was going to bankrupt America. Well, there's a guy named 357 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:36,679 Speaker 6: Tuberville Center from Alabama when now say strongly opposed the legislation. 358 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 6: Now he's hailing his passage. Here's what he said, quote, 359 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 6: it's great to see Alabama received critical funds to boost 360 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 6: ongoing broadband efforts. 361 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, he gets a laugh out of that. He did, 362 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 2: by the way, on Twitter, I'm looking at Coach Tommy Tuberville. 363 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,199 Speaker 2: By the way, broadband, he writes, rick is vital for 364 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,640 Speaker 2: the success of our rural communities and for our entire economy. 365 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 2: Great to see Alabama receive crucial funds to boost ongoing 366 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:08,120 Speaker 2: broadband efforts. That, of course from the infrastructure law, which well, 367 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:09,879 Speaker 2: this is what he said about it on the floor. 368 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 2: In April of twenty twenty. 369 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 1: One, President Biden released a so called infrastructure proposal that's 370 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: not actually about infrastructure. It's nothing more than the Green 371 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 1: New Deal in disguise. 372 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,159 Speaker 2: I guess he's changed his tune rate go for that 373 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 2: Green New Deal. 374 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 5: Look. 375 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:29,680 Speaker 7: I mean it was a bipartisan measure. Nineteen Republican senators 376 00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:33,159 Speaker 7: voted for it. It was a sixty nine to thirty vote, 377 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 7: so it was hailed as a bipartisan achievement. I think 378 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:38,399 Speaker 7: we talked about it at the time. Everyone's going to 379 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 7: take credit for this, that's right once it's passed. And 380 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 7: Tuberville did just that. I mean, even though he voted 381 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 7: against it, as did his fellow Alabama Senator Shelby. Neither 382 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 7: a lot of them put an or in that water. 383 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 7: And yet they're gonna at least Tuberriel's taking the victory 384 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 7: lap and making sure that they know that this is 385 00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 7: going to happen. Look, kudos to the president for calling 386 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 7: him out on it, right, I mean, like if he 387 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 7: wants his vote next time on a good bipartisan bill, 388 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:06,880 Speaker 7: you know he's going to remind him that. Oh, by 389 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:08,919 Speaker 7: the way, you've got a lot of votes for you know, 390 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:13,880 Speaker 7: delivering the bacon to Alabama, so courtesy of the Democrat president. 391 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 2: That's part of the strategy here, though, if this is 392 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 2: going to work for Joe Biden, right, Jeanie John Cornyn 393 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 2: from Texas did the same thing Tommy Tuberville did. He's 394 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 2: celebrating the money coming home from a bill he voted against. 395 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 5: That's right. The coach getting called out on a note 396 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 5: of hypocrisy here. And the best thing was his spokesperson 397 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 5: twisting himself into knots to try to explain the difference. 398 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,959 Speaker 5: You know, a great statement when you read it, and 399 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,439 Speaker 5: the President is going to keep calling them out and 400 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:44,639 Speaker 5: keep saying it sounded to me the same thing he 401 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 5: did in the State of the Union. Come on over, 402 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,360 Speaker 5: the water is warm here, you'll want to celebrate this. 403 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,639 Speaker 5: And boy, he seems to have some energy when he 404 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:53,199 Speaker 5: talks like that. 405 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 2: Well, I guess this is just the way it works. 406 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,200 Speaker 2: And Joe Biden's been on the other side of this too, 407 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 2: has any Rick What did he vote against the champion 408 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 2: at one point in Delaware? 409 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 7: Yeah, every one of these guys does the flip flop 410 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,400 Speaker 7: when it passes. It's it passed by the Senate. That 411 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:08,919 Speaker 7: means all of them get credit. 412 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: So, uh, this. 413 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 7: Shouldn't surprise anybody. But it's always good fodder on an 414 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 7: election cycle. 415 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 2: How does he seize on it? 416 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 1: Though? 417 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 2: To your you gave him credit for doing this earlier. 418 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 2: They need to change this narrative. Uh, if he's going 419 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,199 Speaker 2: to see his numbers move at all, is that a 420 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:23,640 Speaker 2: tactic that he should continue. 421 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:25,639 Speaker 7: Yeah, he's got to stay on the road. He's got 422 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 7: to hit the heartland like he's doing in Chicago today. Uh, 423 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 7: he's got to constantly talk about all the money that 424 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 7: he's putting the work to increase manufacturing, you know, to 425 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 7: put renewables out there, to lower the cost of power, 426 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 7: to you know, elevate the ev debate to something that 427 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 7: people understand and can embrace. You know, this infrastructure is 428 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,399 Speaker 7: that the core of his reelection. I suspect that is 429 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:53,200 Speaker 7: a pseudonym for bid noomics. UH is infrastructure spending, Yes, 430 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 7: And so he's just got to he's got to stay 431 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 7: on that, and he doesn't and he doesn't want to 432 00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 7: get distracted by what happens in Washington with investigations and 433 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 7: things like that. So stayt of DC, stay on the road, 434 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 7: and continuously show up to fill those potholes, build the broadband, 435 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:13,360 Speaker 7: and make sure the bridges don't collapse. 436 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 2: Genie Rick mentioned George H. W. Bush approval ratings were 437 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,479 Speaker 2: astronomical compared to what we've grown used to, certainly with 438 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 2: this president, north of seventy percent, even higher. I think 439 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:26,080 Speaker 2: at the time of the invasion of a Rock Rick 440 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 2: weren't think about ninety percent for some just an enormous number. 441 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 2: And then a recession hit in none of it mattered 442 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 2: what happens if a recession actually does arrive next year 443 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:37,920 Speaker 2: for this president yeah. 444 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 5: I mean they would all want George w b his 445 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,880 Speaker 5: numbers and then look what happened George hw I should say, 446 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 5: you know, I think that would be obviously the timing 447 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,440 Speaker 5: there would be problematic. People talk about a recession in 448 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 5: the fall. In the spring in particular, be very tough 449 00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 5: for the Biden administration. But we are looking at the 450 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,639 Speaker 5: openization of politics. He's going to go out and keep 451 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 5: giving out the goodies and make the case we are 452 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 5: looking out for you. They are not they are for 453 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 5: the wealthy, the uber wealthy. We are for you. Look 454 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,159 Speaker 5: at what we are doing. He is like the mayor 455 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 5: of the country at this point, removing the snow, giving 456 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 5: your broadband, all the things he's gonna do. And that's 457 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 5: how they're gonna keep pushing this out because it's a choice, 458 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 5: and it's a choice that he thinks they can come 459 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 5: on the pus side, and the poll numbers bear that out, 460 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:22,879 Speaker 5: which is why they're doing it. 461 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 2: Did you come up with that the oprahization? 462 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 5: I have coined that. I hope you will get that. 463 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 5: You know we're gonna get T shirts, right, I don't. 464 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 2: Know, everyone, reach under your seats. 465 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On Podcast. Catch us 466 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,119 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 467 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App. We're listening on 468 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast. 469 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:52,479 Speaker 2: It apparently remains the case that indictments are good for business, 470 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,399 Speaker 2: at least if your name is Donald Trump. With new 471 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:58,919 Speaker 2: numbers from morning consults on the Republican primary field. This 472 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 2: updated just in the last twenty four hours in a 473 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:07,439 Speaker 2: sample of more than thirty six hundred likely Republican primary voters, 474 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:11,120 Speaker 2: Donald Trump pulling in at fifty seven percent to Ron 475 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 2: DeSantis at nineteen. You go to single digits from there, 476 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,200 Speaker 2: and not unlike the sant Anselm pole we were looking 477 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 2: at yesterday, Mike Pence seven, look at Vek Ramaswami with 478 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:26,360 Speaker 2: six out running, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Chris Christy, Asa Hutchinson, 479 00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:33,160 Speaker 2: Doug Bergham, Francis Suarez And as I read here, has 480 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 2: anyone heard about heard will heard zero? 481 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 1: That's tough. 482 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,360 Speaker 2: As we reassemble the panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanza, 483 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,120 Speaker 2: we're here. You got to start somewhere, right, Well, that's 484 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,200 Speaker 2: about though. It's only a place you can start that's right. 485 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,879 Speaker 7: I mean, look, it's hard when you are in Congress 486 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,480 Speaker 7: to run for president. It's even harder to have been 487 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 7: out of Congress and then decide to run for Congress. 488 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 7: But look, I mean this is like the twelve Days 489 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 7: of Christmas, right, I mean, like I felt like singing 490 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 7: a partridgeinna paratree halfway through that list. 491 00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 2: Yes, my apology is for what we're all going to 492 00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,919 Speaker 2: endure for the next year. This lead from Donald Trump. 493 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 2: It's certainly been consistent in a lot of polls here. Genia. 494 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,720 Speaker 2: Do you think another indictment or maybe two more, change 495 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 2: this story or just make him stronger in the primary field? 496 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 5: Two more indictments, he will be this race will be over, 497 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,600 Speaker 5: He'll be the nominee. At this point, you know, I 498 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 5: think we are in such uncharted territory here that it's 499 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 5: really hard to say there's no historical comparison to drawn. 500 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,680 Speaker 5: I do think there are may be, and this would 501 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,880 Speaker 5: take a long time for scholars to determine. There may 502 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 5: be explanations for some of what we're seeing in these polls. 503 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 5: We won't know until the election occurs and we're able 504 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 5: to study it. But just as an example, the old 505 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 5: spiral of silence. Theory is that people don't want to admit, 506 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 5: especially in this day and age, to pollsters what they 507 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,120 Speaker 5: actually think, and we've seen that with race. We could 508 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,119 Speaker 5: be seeing some of that here. There's a dilution effect 509 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,399 Speaker 5: that could be occurring. So there's a whole bunch of 510 00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,719 Speaker 5: social science explanations for what we're seeing, but again we 511 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 5: really don't know. All we're seeing are these numbers, and 512 00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 5: he continues to get stronger, and for Republicans, they would 513 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 5: really need this to be a one on one race 514 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 5: pretty quickly for him to start dropping down. But the 515 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,879 Speaker 5: second is dropping himself, and that is DeSantis. 516 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 2: Donald Trump beats Joe Biden by three percentage points in 517 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:37,080 Speaker 2: the hypothetical hero Ck, you're probably rolling your eyes before 518 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:38,679 Speaker 2: I ask a question, but how many of these do 519 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 2: we need to see before Joe Biden starts to maybe 520 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 2: wonder if that is his hopeful challenger. 521 00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 7: Yeah, well, I think that you can't confuse Donald Trump's 522 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 7: strength in the primary with Joe Biden's incredible weakness amongst 523 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 7: his own party and in the national race. Within Republican circles, 524 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,160 Speaker 7: it's pretty common to hear Donald Trump's the only one 525 00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 7: who Joe Biden can beat in the Republican field, and 526 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 7: when you look at the numbers, that's pretty consistently correct. 527 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 7: In fact, I saw a poll just recently that had 528 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:16,679 Speaker 7: Governor Younkin plus sixteen on a one on one against 529 00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 7: Joe Biden in a national election. So when you have 530 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,359 Speaker 7: that kind of strength, it shows the weakness of the incumbent, 531 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 7: and that's Joe Biden. So unless he can improve his lot, 532 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 7: everyone in the Republican side, including Donald Trump, is going 533 00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:31,679 Speaker 7: to look competitive. 534 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,359 Speaker 2: I have to ask you guys about just because I 535 00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 2: keep hearing it every day. I'm not looking to start 536 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 2: this conversation Genie, and Joe Biden certainly isn't either, although 537 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 2: I think they want to end the conversation more specifically, 538 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:46,280 Speaker 2: and that's the idea of a unity candidate no labels 539 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 2: is apparently still talking to Joe Mansion, maybe Larry Hogan. 540 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 2: I don't know who it is who ends up potentially 541 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,720 Speaker 2: in this race, but there are a lot of Democrats 542 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,680 Speaker 2: in this town who are actively working to prevent that 543 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,320 Speaker 2: from happening. Is it something you worry about? 544 00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 5: I do think there is a cause for concern there, 545 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,959 Speaker 5: and that's because there is so much ambivalence on the 546 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 5: part of even Democrats about another Biden run. And that's why, 547 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 5: you know, we were talking in the last couple of 548 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 5: days about you know, Robert F. Kennedy Junior. His poll 549 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 5: numbers have fluctuated a bit, but he's getting an awful 550 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 5: lot of press coverage, you know, and he is just 551 00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 5: one candidate out there. There are others who could potentially 552 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:31,160 Speaker 5: on a third party ticket like that pull some votes 553 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 5: from Biden because people do feel like they have been 554 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 5: let down in certain ways and they are looking for 555 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,840 Speaker 5: an alternative. So I think Democrats it's important for them 556 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 5: to try to head that off at the pass if 557 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,719 Speaker 5: they can, because the last thing you want is a 558 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 5: Biden versus Trump and a third party candidate draining Biden 559 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 5: of support, and that gives Trump the presidency. If you 560 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 5: are a Democrat, does this. 561 00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,000 Speaker 2: Sound like a real conversation to you, Rick, You've been 562 00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 2: around this a long time. It comes up every time. 563 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 2: Would it be the case? 564 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 1: Now? 565 00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 2: I'm hearing some folks concerned about Cornell West being on 566 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 2: the ballot in Michigan. They know, as he's a Green 567 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 2: Party you don't have to be a national candidate to 568 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:12,320 Speaker 2: stir the pot here, right. 569 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 7: You don't have to be a national candidate, but you 570 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:15,880 Speaker 7: do have to have some impact on the ballot. So 571 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,040 Speaker 7: homestaters like Cornell, Yeah, sure, if he could affect you know, 572 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 7: three or four points in Michigan, that could change the 573 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 7: outcome of the race. Look, I lived through the ninety 574 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 7: two race with Ross Perot. I mean, he decided who 575 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,200 Speaker 7: was going to be president by getting almost twenty percent 576 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 7: of the vote. So these third party candidacies have a 577 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,320 Speaker 7: robust impact on the outcome, especially in an evenly divided 578 00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 7: country that we're in now. And I would say the 579 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:44,080 Speaker 7: Kennedy impact is going to be probably to drag you know, Biden, 580 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:48,200 Speaker 7: who ran as a moderate Democrat in twenty more to 581 00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 7: the left because he's occupying the kooky left and in 582 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,640 Speaker 7: order to keep his numbers from going down too far. 583 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 7: I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden start to be 584 00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,160 Speaker 7: a little more progressive. 585 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 2: If there is a unity can candidate or you know, 586 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 2: if Dems cannot squash this no labels idea Rick, will 587 00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 2: Republicans throw money behind him? 588 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 7: You know they won't even have to, you know, right now, 589 00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 7: I mean and Republics are looking at this going We 590 00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 7: got our own problems. 591 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 2: Who are we. 592 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 7: Going to have as a nominee, And that's going to 593 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,240 Speaker 7: last for some time. So I think the party itself 594 00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 7: is going to be inwardly focused. But there are a 595 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 7: lot of people who don't want Joe Biden to be 596 00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 7: re elected as president, and some of those are Republicans, 597 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 7: and they would see, you know, a no labels kind 598 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 7: of effort as being a way to stop Biden if 599 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 7: they don't have a particular point of view on you know, 600 00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 7: who the Republican needs to be. 601 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,040 Speaker 2: We talked about the potential of a recession at Genie. 602 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,760 Speaker 2: You add, a no labels candidate next year would be 603 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,960 Speaker 2: awfully difficult for Joe Biden all of a sudden, it 604 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 2: would be. 605 00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 5: And that's why they are hoping that Trump is on 606 00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:49,920 Speaker 5: the ballot, because they still are of the belief that 607 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 5: he won last time. Not more voters are not looking 608 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,080 Speaker 5: at Trump thinking, you know, I didn't like him before, 609 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:57,719 Speaker 5: but now I think he's a great guy and I'm 610 00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 5: going to vote for him. So they still feel like, 611 00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 5: despite what can be a potential big drive from the 612 00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 5: economy to a third party candidate, that they could pull 613 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,520 Speaker 5: it out against Trump. I do think they have to 614 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 5: start pushing back a little bit on RFK, If not 615 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,240 Speaker 5: the President, at least his surrogates. 616 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 2: Jenny Shanzano and Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributors with more naxx. 617 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. 618 00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:27,480 Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 619 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,400 Speaker 1: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg 620 00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:33,720 Speaker 1: Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa 621 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:37,160 Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play 622 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:38,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty. 623 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:43,840 Speaker 2: We have yet to confirm the whereabouts of Yevgeny Pregosion, 624 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 2: presumably in Belarus. His plane got there. We know that 625 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:54,400 Speaker 2: president of Belarus says he's there, but we haven't had, 626 00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 2: you know, the shot with the newspaper or whatever it 627 00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 2: is that we need to see to make that confirmation. 628 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:04,800 Speaker 2: And it came up in the Pentagon briefing yesterday in 629 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,800 Speaker 2: a way that you would only hear. Well, I guess 630 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:08,720 Speaker 2: from a gen xer. 631 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 3: Thank you. 632 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,280 Speaker 2: Does the U D know for a fact that Pregosion 633 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 2: is still alive? 634 00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,840 Speaker 3: Or are we in a weekend at Bernie's scenario right now? 635 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:20,880 Speaker 6: I'm sorry, Jeff, I don't get the reference. 636 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:24,480 Speaker 4: I'm kidding. I'm kidding. Gen x Aer here at the podium. 637 00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 6: Okay, So again, Jeff, like you, you know we're watching the 638 00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 6: press reports out there, so I'm not gonna I'm not 639 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,600 Speaker 6: going to be able to provide a status update. I 640 00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,880 Speaker 6: have many responsibilities, but press secretary for mister Progosion is 641 00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 6: not one, so I really can't comment on his current status. 642 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,480 Speaker 2: So we don't know. That was Brigadier General Ryder. You 643 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 2: remember weekend at Bernie's right, Bernie. 644 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: Great fight. We just walked in. 645 00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 2: We didn't know that the sunglasses Niee. He's sleeping all right, Rick, 646 00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 2: Dave and Genie Shanzano in our final moment? Do you 647 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:06,080 Speaker 2: think he's alive and if he is long for this world? 648 00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:10,920 Speaker 7: Well, I would say surrounded by well equipped military aids 649 00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:17,879 Speaker 7: of his in a country like Belarus, you know, if 650 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,320 Speaker 7: they want him dead, he's gone, right like my host 651 00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 7: is my enemy. 652 00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:24,880 Speaker 2: Uh huh. Some have suggested, Genie, he may already be 653 00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:26,479 Speaker 2: in Africa. Do you think we'll see him again? 654 00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,239 Speaker 5: I'm not sure? But can we give the award for 655 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,560 Speaker 5: the best question at a Pentagon briefing to show a 656 00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,080 Speaker 5: goal that was amazing, and that by the day Brigadier 657 00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,080 Speaker 5: General Rider, he was a quick comeback too. 658 00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,840 Speaker 2: That Rider, for sure, he knew exactly what he was 659 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:43,360 Speaker 2: talking about. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano our signature panel. 660 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:47,839 Speaker 2: Thanks as always for great analysis and for playing a lung. 661 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,440 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure 662 00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,320 Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and 663 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find 664 00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,759 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, d C. At one 665 00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:05,840 Speaker 2: p m. Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.