WEBVTT - Instant Reaction: Trump Dominates Iowa 0:00:07.960 --> 0:00:10.360 It's a special covert show of the Iowa caucuses on 0:00:10.360 --> 0:00:11.920 Bloomberg TV and Radio. 0:00:12.000 --> 0:00:13.200 We thank you for joining us. 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:15.720 The race called early for Donald Trump, but we've got 0:00:15.760 --> 0:00:18.480 a long way to go here in figuring out second, 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:22.480 third and the margins of victory. Bloomberg's Julie Fine joins 0:00:22.560 --> 0:00:25.799 us for more from the Iowa Election Center, where she's 0:00:25.800 --> 0:00:28.560 got her eyes on the numbers right now. Julie, how 0:00:28.600 --> 0:00:31.160 long do you think we'll wait to learn more? 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:35.280 I think it's going to be a while before we 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:38.159 really determine second and third place because if you look 0:00:38.200 --> 0:00:40.040 at the numbers that have come in, they're in the 0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:43.680 smaller counties and they're smaller groups of people. So let's 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:45.960 talk to our global audience a little bit. In a 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:49.600 caucus situation, people come together and vote. The numbers that 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:53.960 they're getting now are from smaller groups, from more outlying areas. 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.480 You're going to need a big dump from Des Moines 0:00:56.560 --> 0:00:59.279 or the bigger cities to really get that picture on 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:02.880 second place. And right now, the numbers are really showing 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:06.880 that Governor Ron DeSantis and Governor NICKI Haley, the former 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:10.080 ambassador to the UN, they're really locked in at seventeen percent. 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:13.319 But again I really want a caution here, we're looking 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.480 at just about one percent of the vote. So the 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:20.600 former president right now is well above fifty percent. But 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:24.560 to really dissect the seventeen percent, you're going to have 0:01:24.640 --> 0:01:27.720 to see bigger numbers from bigger counties. 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:29.080 Now, the former president. 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:30.560 Of course, Joe and Kayley we have talked about this, 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:34.080 needed to make a very big number tonight to make 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:38.160 a statement over fifty percent. Right now, he is there. 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:41.080 So now again the race is for second place. What 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:43.320 I'll really be watching is Sue County to see how 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:46.640 that goes. For Governor DeSantis. You also have to really 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:49.120 pay attention to Des Moines and the Des Moines suburbs 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:51.720 to see where that plays out. For Nicky Hayley, those 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:54.720 numbers appear not to be in quite yet. So again 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:57.320 there is a long way to go in that race 0:01:57.400 --> 0:01:59.760 for second place. Now is something you really have to 0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:02.040 keep keep your eye on. Why you really have to 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:04.480 keep your eye on that For the Governor of Florida, 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:09.040 Ron DeSantis, his eggs are in the Iowa basket. If 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:11.640 he does not do as well as Nikki Haley or 0:02:11.680 --> 0:02:14.480 their neck and neck here he goes to New Hampshire, 0:02:14.520 --> 0:02:17.800 where Hayley has really been putting on the press for 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:22.000 votes and for the win. This is a critical, critical 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:24.840 night for Ron DeSantis and for the Desandas campaign. 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:27.960 Kaylee and Joe the Bourbon Vitory. 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:32.160 All right, Bloomberg's Julie Fine at the election Center, thank 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:34.440 you so much. Back with us now around the table, 0:02:34.560 --> 0:02:36.720 Rick Davis and Jeanie shan Zeno. 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:37.960 So, Genie, she was just. 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:41.160 Making the point there about how invested DeSantis has been 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:43.919 in New Hampshire, how this feels, at least to many 0:02:44.040 --> 0:02:46.560 of us who have been watching it, like something of 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:50.120 a make or break moment for his campaign. Even if 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:53.440 he gets second place, if Trump's lead is commanding enough, 0:02:54.000 --> 0:02:56.520 can his campaign realistically move forward from here? 0:02:56.960 --> 0:03:00.440 You know, I think he probably will, especially he comes 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:03.400 in second. But I do think it's a real uphill 0:03:03.440 --> 0:03:05.960 battle when we look at some of the models. You know, 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:11.799 it becomes increasingly harder for either DeSantis or Haley if 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:14.800 they lose in Iowa, lose in New Hampshire to get 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:18.680 the number of delegates they need to beat Donald Trump. 0:03:18.800 --> 0:03:22.040 So I think it's an uphill battle for him even 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:24.920 if he comes in second, because we talked about the 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:27.640 fact he doesn't have much of a game in New Hampshire. 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:30.600 He's going to try in South Carolina. He's not pulling 0:03:30.680 --> 0:03:34.040 well there. Nevada has been completely pulled out from under 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:35.680 them due to what Trump has done there. 0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:37.360 So it's really. 0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:40.040 Really tough to see where he goes from here, especially 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:44.360 even if he comes in second numerically and in terms 0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:48.160 of the actual percentage to lose counties, not when any 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:49.360 which could happen. 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:51.160 I think it's. 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:53.200 Really hard to make the case that there's a pathway 0:03:53.200 --> 0:03:53.920 forward for him. 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:56.920 Boy, this is remarkable the extent to which the narrative 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.960 has changed since we came on the air this year. 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:03.800 Evening Ronda Santis, to Julie Fine's point, put his eggs 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:04.920 in the Iowa basket. 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:06.960 Nicki Haley put her eggs. 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:10.839 Somewhere in New Hampshire, and I wonder how she can 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:13.880 control the narrative in the next four days moving into 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:18.080 Manchester to spin whatever happens here tonight is maybe not 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:21.440 a positive, but something that could be followed on by 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:23.760 a big win in the first of the nation primary state. 0:04:24.040 --> 0:04:27.840 Yeah, I would say Nicki Haley is running a multi 0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:32.320 state campaign, right. Ronda Santis is running a single state campaign. 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:35.200 She did come in late off of some momentum that 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:37.520 she was generating, and spent heavily. 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:38.839 In the last two weeks. 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:42.679 She's dominated the airwaves, spending much much more than Donald 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:46.279 Trump and Ronda Santis combined. So she played here, she 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:48.320 just played in a different way without the ground game. 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:50.920 We're going to see whether or not that materializes as 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:53.520 a second place finish for her. But she does have 0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:58.360 a very strong operation in New Hampshire, starting with the endorsement. 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:00.120 Of the incredibly popular gup. 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:04.839 Chris Snuda and his entire state organization is behind her, 0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:07.520 in addition to the fact that, as Genie has pointed out, 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:11.240 she has built her own impressive organization there and has 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:14.800 attended and put on many town halls that New Hampshire 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:18.680 voters love to test their candidates in. So she actually 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:22.120 starts well ahead even before the night is over, well 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:25.080 ahead of ron De Santis in New Hampshire and frankly 0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:28.960 on par with the organization and the support that Donald 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:32.120 Trump has there. So she knows the game starts for 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:35.880 her in New Hampshire tonight as soon as she gets 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:37.520 on a plane and leaves here. Whether it's to night 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:39.920 or first thing tomorrow morning. She has a fresh start 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.320 with some momentum. She hasn't been written out of this 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:46.360 narrative yet. And and you know it's game on in 0:05:46.360 --> 0:05:47.400 New Hampshire tomorrow. 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:50.360 Well, you say she's running a multi state campaign, DeSantis 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:52.520 maybe has been a single state campaign to this point. 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:55.279 Either way, we've seen them. It's very expensive. So the 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:58.040 donor question is raised here as well. DeSantis has been 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:00.240 going after Haley in recent weeks on the idea that 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:02.880 she's in this for her donors issues, whereas he says 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:05.680 he's in it for voters issues. But he struggled in 0:06:05.720 --> 0:06:07.800 the donor department in a way that she hasn't. Their 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:10.919 fates almost in that regard have reversed. How does the 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:16.239 outcome in Iowa impact their ability to access resources going forward? 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:18.960 How do you fundraise if you haven't just won? 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:21.840 Yeah, you have to live off the land, and unfortunately 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:22.880 I've been involved with a lot. 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:24.719 Of companies you go foraging. 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:28.320 Had to live off the land, and it is possible. Yeah, 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:31.599 you find other ways to compete, you do. Frankly, what 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.680 Ron DeSantis has been doing here is going and putting 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:37.840 yourself out there with five six events a day, And 0:06:38.760 --> 0:06:41.840 part of the advantage Nikki Haley has is she's been 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:44.240 working that hard, she's been doing those events every day, 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:46.160 but she's also got a little bit of moment where 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:48.840 the money has rushed in. Look, there's a reason that 0:06:48.920 --> 0:06:52.520 front runners usually win because they have the money, and 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:58.160 insurgents usually complain that, you know, it's a money game 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:01.960 for them, voters don't care. In fact, I think most 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:04.760 voters respect the fact that a campaign can raise money 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:06.839 because at the end of the day, whoever is the 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:09.279 Republican nominee, they're going to have to raise a lot 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:10.880 of money to beat Joe Biden. 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:11.800 He is sitting there. 0:07:11.640 --> 0:07:15.000 With over one hundred million dollars cash in an account, 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:17.200 ready to wage a campaign war against. 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:17.960 The Republican nominee. 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:21.680 See, we haven't talked about Joe Biden for most of 0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:23.200 the night. It might be the first time I've heard 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:27.200 that name. Are they popping quarks here at Biden campaign headquarters? 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:30.200 Because the narrative was that, you know, he wants to 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:32.760 face Trump again, he is the one he knows he 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:35.560 can beat. But numbers like this might make you think twice. 0:07:35.680 --> 0:07:37.880 You know, I think they're popping them quietly they don't 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:40.120 want to get out ahead of themselves. But the reality is, 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:43.880 you look at the polls, and the national polls were 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:47.560 showing that who could beat him. Nicky Haley, Bronda Santis 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:49.800 and Trump were beating him within a margin in the 0:07:49.840 --> 0:07:52.480 latest polls, but Nicki Haley had a pretty commanding lead 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:55.880 over Biden. And so we've long thought that the Biden 0:07:55.960 --> 0:07:59.800 campaign would prefer to run against somebody as unpopular as 0:07:59.840 --> 0:08:02.960 the president is, quite frankly, and that is Donald Trump. 0:08:03.280 --> 0:08:06.480 So if that narrative continues, then I think they are 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:08.720 quietly saying this is where we want to be. We 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:11.800 beat him before we can do it again. But you know, 0:08:12.080 --> 0:08:15.360 I think that's a really dangerous game. Donald Trump is 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:18.920 an incredibly good politician as long as he much as 0:08:18.920 --> 0:08:20.800 he likes to say is not. He's great at this, 0:08:21.200 --> 0:08:23.920 and Joe Biden is as well, So I think they 0:08:23.960 --> 0:08:25.200 have to be careful what they wish for. 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:28.480 Of Course, the Bloomberg Morning Console poll Kayley in the 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:31.440 seven swing states we've been following show Joe Biden actually 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:32.720 has probably more to worry about. 0:08:32.720 --> 0:08:36.080 The conventional wisdom might suggest we're going to. 0:08:36.200 --> 0:08:38.400 Stick with Rick and Jeanie here and we'll be back 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:41.600 with more of our conversation live from Des Moines. Coming up, 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:43.760 we will add the voice of a real insider, a 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:47.120 long time Iowa political strategist. David Kotchel is with us 0:08:47.120 --> 0:08:49.960 next on a special Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV 0:08:50.040 --> 0:09:02.160 and Radio. It's a special coverage of the Iowa Caucuses 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:05.480 on Bloomberg TV and radio. We're live in Des Moines 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:09.000 and joining us now a long time Iowa political strategist. 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:11.040 They call him the Dean of Iowa politics. 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:12.600 That would be David Conchulu. 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:14.480 Is wonderful to have you at the table here in 0:09:14.520 --> 0:09:16.480 the throes of a night like this. 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:18.400 David, we had an early call. 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:21.240 For Donald Trump, but still a lot of questions about 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:24.400 margins and turnout as we look at these very cold 0:09:24.480 --> 0:09:27.800 people walking by, knowing the weather was a real factor here. 0:09:27.840 --> 0:09:29.440 What are you hearing about turnout. 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:30.439 At the stage the game, Well, it's going to be 0:09:30.480 --> 0:09:31.800 well under what was expected. 0:09:31.840 --> 0:09:33.920 Yeah, obviously in twenty sixteen, one hundred and eighty seven 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:37.439 thousand people turned out. Twenty twenty four, I think most 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:40.160 people were setting the over under one hundred and fifty thousand, 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:41.800 and a lot of people would have taken the over 0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:44.760 The truth is this campaign hasn't been that exciting because 0:09:44.760 --> 0:09:47.040 Donald Trump has had a big lead almost all the 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:49.760 way through Iowa. So there's two campaigns now to watch. 0:09:49.960 --> 0:09:53.040 It's Trump versus himself. Can he get over fifty? If 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:55.800 he's under fifty, that says half of Iowa voters said no, 0:09:55.960 --> 0:09:58.800 thank you. And then the race obviously for second place. 0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:01.920 This high stakes for Ron DeSantis bets it all here. 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:04.560 It's really the only place he's campaigned, spent a ton 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:07.079 of money, and he and Nikki Haley are going to 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:09.600 go I think back and forth all night. I have 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.720 a feeling that if they're deadlocked right now with just 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:18.040 a few counties in the largest counties report latest because 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:21.360 these are hand counted ballots on the ground by volunteers. 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:24.760 So those big, huge counties in places like Clive in 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:29.240 Dallas County in Marion and Lynn County, Bettendorf's big suburbs 0:10:29.240 --> 0:10:33.000 where she overperforms, if those come in late, that might 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:36.600 her put her past DeSantis, in which case I think 0:10:36.640 --> 0:10:39.280 DeSantis has a lot to think about overnight. 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:42.600 Do you think realistically we could see DeSantis out of 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:44.079 this race as soon as tomorrow morning? 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:47.880 You could if he finishes in third place after having 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:52.200 Governor Reynolds Bob Vander plots a bunch of legislators over 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:54.800 one hundred million dollars in spending from the super pack, 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:58.679 the biggest ground game spend we've ever seen in Iowa 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.480 started in the high thirties here when he got into 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:03.920 the race and just kind. 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:05.520 Of fell over the summer in the fall. 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:09.600 What case can he make if he finishes third here, 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:12.760 He's already well behind in New Hampshire, He's well behind 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:15.640 in South Carolina. Those are the next two contests that matter. 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:19.920 It's really hard to argue that somehow on March fifth, 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:23.360 on Super Tuesday, he's going to be resurrected. So I 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:25.920 don't see a path for him if he finishes third. 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:28.160 If he's in second, maybe he has to go on 0:11:28.200 --> 0:11:30.880 to New Hampshire and see what happens. Maybe something happens 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:33.600 in the race that we can't foresee. But he's in 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:35.839 tough shape if he comes out of Iowa third tonight. 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:39.000 Before seven thirty tonight when this race was called and 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:41.719 some of the other things that you've learned since then, 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:45.400 did you expect to hear concession speeches from anyone coming 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:46.239 out of Iowa. 0:11:46.360 --> 0:11:46.440 No. 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:49.760 I've been around this a long time, six presidential campaigns, 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:54.280 a few of whom didn't make it the distance. It's 0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:56.840 tough for a campaign to drop out after all this investment. 0:11:56.880 --> 0:11:58.400 You want to get with your family, you want to 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:00.760 get with your top strategies, you want to talk about it. 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:04.199 Usually there isn't a snap decision on a night like this, 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:08.080 so I wouldn't expect to hear any concessions tonight. I 0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:10.960 think tomorrow morning everyone's going to wake up reassessed, see 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:12.960 what their path is forward. If they can make a 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:15.720 credible argument for a path forward, they'll try to stay in. 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:18.120 You also have the idea that. 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:21.600 If you don't do well here, if you perform below expectations, 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:23.520 you're not going to expect any more money to be 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:26.520 coming in over the next week. And these campaigns run on, 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:29.520 you know, campaign donations. You got to have some money 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:31.679 to go to New Hampshire. That's a Boston TV market 0:12:31.760 --> 0:12:34.560 costs about a million bucks a week. You know, I 0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:36.960 don't know that DeSantis is going to have the resources 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:40.280 to continue to compete, especially if he finishes, you know, 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:42.680 in third place, where he was not expected to finish. 0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:46.720 We've talked at length about Governor DeSantis, about Inbassador Haley, 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:49.240 about Trump. This evening, we have not mentioned another candidate 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:51.560 who spent a lot of time here. For vig Ramaswami, 0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:53.480 he says he did a double grassley. He went to 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:57.479 all ninety nine counties twice. Does that traditional Iowa politicking 0:12:57.559 --> 0:13:00.920 not matter anymore if he's barely even registering enough for 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:03.120 us to bring him up until we're an hour and 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:04.680 forty five minutes into this program. 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:07.679 I think vivek Is is a special case here. If 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:09.920 you liked to eviake Ramaswami and you showed up at 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:12.760 his events, you were voting for Donald Trump. He's kind 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:15.319 of the mini Trump in this race. He had that message, 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:17.680 and I kind of think he really wasn't running to 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.400 be president. He's kind of running to be a mega celebrity. 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:23.360 Maybe Alex Jones. I just think his campaign hasn't been 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:25.880 serious for a while. The first couple of debates, he 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:29.360 was two completely different people. I think Iowan's you know 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:33.040 they up close. I think they found him to be 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:37.520 phony and I felt like he wasn't going anywhere for 0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:39.880 the last two months, and it's. 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:40.679 Proved to be true. 0:13:40.800 --> 0:13:43.360 Well, if he's pulling at eight percent and he drops 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:46.520 out to those votes go straight to Donald Trump. They do. 0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:48.720 Yeah, And in New Hampshire, I don't even think he's 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:50.880 pulling at eight percent. I think he's pulling well below 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:51.320 that here. 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:52.360 I so I don't. Yeah. 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:55.720 Here in Iowa, Yeah, and I look, he's not going 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:59.120 to hit eight percent tonight. Those votes already went to 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:01.439 Donald Trump and might be the thing that puts him 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:03.320 over fifty, which is I think where they want to be. 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:08.600 So yeah, Vivick just didn't couldn't, couldn't land it here. 0:14:08.960 --> 0:14:11.280 As much time as he spent, he pulled out. 0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:13.080 His money a while back. He's been off the air. 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:16.560 So you know, I think most people who are watching 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:18.280 this closely saw that coming. 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:21.920 We are joined by a global audience this evening on 0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:24.720 television and radio. There's people watching from all over the 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:27.280 world who essentially are trying to figure out what this 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:30.200 means for who's going to be the nominee in twenty 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:30.760 twenty four. 0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:33.000 To what extent right now do you think the. 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:36.800 Iowa electorate Republicans Here in Iowa are those who perhaps 0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:40.600 decided to register as Republicans for this evening to participate 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:44.040 in this choice to what extent do you think that 0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:47.280 is reflected of the country more widely in terms of 0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:49.720 the issues that are resonating for voters. Do we think, 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:52.560 actually Iowa may be more reflective this time around of 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:54.000 the way the rest of this race. 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:54.400 Is going to go. 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.680 Yeah, but Iowa is usually not a great predictor who 0:14:57.680 --> 0:14:58.280 the nominee is. 0:14:58.320 --> 0:14:59.960 I'm just wondering if this time is different. 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:02.320 Yeah, well it might be different. 0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:05.040 We have to go through New Hampshire and kind of 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:08.520 see what New Hampshire does. New Hampshire likes to say, Okay, 0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:10.560 Iowa a nice work, we're going to change it now, 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:12.880 And we heard Nikki Hayley joke about that a week 0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:15.800 or so ago in New Hampshire. What Iowa's job really 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:18.200 is and what people need to understand. We're not picking 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:20.720 the nominee here. We're winnowing the field down to a 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.880 manageable race where voters really get to say, Okay, of 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:27.080 these two or three viable candidates, now we're going to 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:30.160 select them. We've already dispensed with a whole bunch of 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:32.760 candidates that had high hopes coming in here. Mike Pence 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:35.080 is out, Tim Scott is out, Doug Bergham is out. 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:38.320 A whole host of candidates didn't even make it to Iowa. 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:41.160 Usually we say there are three tickets out of Iowa. 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:45.280 I actually think tonight there might be two. And that 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:47.880 would be interesting because that puts us in a one 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:50.960 on one race with Donald Trump. Well before we saw 0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:54.840 that in twenty sixteen, we were in Florida with multiple candidates, 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:58.960 way down the calendar into March. And what Trump doesn't want, 0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:00.800 he wants to wrap this up. He's got a lot 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:03.600 of other things on his plate right now. What we 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:06.520 need to see is can New Hampshire maybe reverse this 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:09.600 result show a little bit of vulnerability with Trump. 0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:11.520 If Nikki Haley were to weak. 0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:13.880 Past him in New Hampshire, I think that'll scramble the 0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:17.119 national polls. Some the money will flood into her campaign, 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:19.040 and I think Donald Trump might have a race in 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:21.840 South Carolina. He's got a lead now, but this is 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:25.000 part of a whole several months where he's had a 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.400 dominant national lead and other states aren't paying as closive 0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:31.640 attention as they are here where he could finish under fifty, 0:16:31.800 --> 0:16:34.840 and as they are in New Hampshire. So he's the 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.960 overwhelming front runner now. There is no question about that. 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:40.440 If he were to lose New Hampshire, I think you'd 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:43.480 watch some national polling change and there might be a 0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:46.040 few cracks in that inevitability. 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:48.040 All right, Well, at the very least he's claimed that 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.080 first ticket out of Iowa. We're still waiting to see 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:52.560 who gets the second. David Kachel, thank you so much 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:54.200 for joining us here and j join this evening. We 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:54.720 appreciate it. 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:55.120 Thank you. 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:57.080 Now, coming up, we'll be back with Rick Davis and 0:16:57.160 --> 0:17:00.920 Jeanie Shanzeno to help close out this night special coverage 0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:07.119 of the Iowa Caucuses on Bloomberg Television and Radio. This 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:10.520 is special coverage of the Iowa Caucuses on Bloomberg Television 0:17:10.880 --> 0:17:13.399 and Radio. We're getting more numbers out throughout this evening 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:15.880 after the race was called for former President Donald Trump 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:18.960 and Bloomberg Tyler Kendall is here with the latest. Tyler, 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:21.320 what else do we know? What are the figures selling us? 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.639 Yep, Kelly, So, now about thirty six percent of the 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:29.400 expected vote is in and that includes most of eastern 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:32.120 Iowa and also central Iowa. I want to pull out 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:34.920 two counties. One is Pole County where we are here 0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:37.720 in des Moines that is trending towards former President Trump, 0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:40.520 as well as Dallas County that is right to the 0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:43.920 west of US. It is the fastest growing county in Iowa. 0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:47.360 These two counties very populous, but also considered more moderate 0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:51.240 places where Nikki Haley has really been focusing her campaign attention. 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:55.800 Interesting too, Dallas County met Romney in twenty twelve. In 0:17:55.800 --> 0:17:59.480 that general election, he won it by twelve points. Trump 0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:01.639 than won it by nine points, but the last election 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:03.480 he only won it by two So this was an 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:07.359 area that Nikki Hilly's campaign has really been targeting, trying 0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:10.760 to get those moderate voters. These were these central counties 0:18:10.880 --> 0:18:12.480 that I think she was hoping to make a splash 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:12.920 in tonight. 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:19.720 All right, Tyler, thank you so much. 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:21.760 And as we close out the program this evening, Joe, 0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:24.240 we got to bring in our closers as we always do. 0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:25.000 That's correct. 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:28.240 There's only one closing panel and that's Rick Davis and 0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:29.240 Jeanie Shanzo. 0:18:29.560 --> 0:18:31.879 This move fast tonight. We're not done. 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:34.320 I'm wondering Rick, if we're going to wake up tomorrow 0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:36.240 and no second and third places. 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:38.800 Yeah. Look, I think the reporting is coming in on pace. 0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:42.640 And as Dave Kotchwe was talking about some of these 0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:46.280 bigger counties, bigger precincts. Takes a while to hang count 0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:48.760 all those ballots, but the reporting system seems to be 0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:52.919 working perfectly. The chairman of the Republican Party told us that, 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:54.679 you know, he thought it was going to be smooth, 0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:57.000 and it looks like he made good on that promise. 0:18:57.080 --> 0:18:58.840 So I think we'll know by the time we wake 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:01.800 up in the morning. But maybe we just shouldn't go to. 0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:03.280 Sleep until we find out who's going to be in 0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:04.520 second place in Iowa. 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:09.480