WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: John Stoltzfus & Katy Kaminski

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>The single best idea. I'm not a typical September Friday.

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<v Speaker 2>We're supposed to slide into the weekend. There is no sliding.

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<v Speaker 2>Paul Sweeney was better than me. He brought it up

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<v Speaker 2>at least four times. Oh next week a government shutdown.

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<v Speaker 2>We barely looked at it, given the news flow and

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<v Speaker 2>of course some of the magic of a September sporting scene,

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<v Speaker 2>Red Sox and the Tigers, the Yankees, the Blue Jays,

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<v Speaker 2>all of it just very exciting. And of course the

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<v Speaker 2>Ryder Cup on Bloomberg Radio is really exciting for Washington,

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<v Speaker 2>New York. In Boston, we did look at the equity markets.

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<v Speaker 2>Three down days in a row, go to cash. John

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<v Speaker 2>Stolphe says No. At OpCo, he has been brilliant about

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<v Speaker 2>participating in the market in a rational way for long

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<v Speaker 2>term investment. Here from OpCo, John stolfs.

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<v Speaker 3>You need to distinguish between are you a trader or

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<v Speaker 3>are you an intermediate to longer term investor. And I think,

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<v Speaker 3>as you know, I've been to this business since nineteen

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<v Speaker 3>eighty three, so I've been through a lot of economic

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<v Speaker 3>cycles and bull markets and bear markets and In the

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<v Speaker 3>process of this, the tone of the market has changed

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<v Speaker 3>because the private investor today across generations is investing for

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<v Speaker 3>their retirement or investing in retirement, and they want to

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<v Speaker 3>preserve their standard of living or improve their standard of

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<v Speaker 3>living going forward. And from a historical basis past performance

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<v Speaker 3>being no guarantee future results tends to be Equities outperform

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<v Speaker 3>other asset classes for more periods than many people would

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<v Speaker 3>think who are bearish or skeptics on the market.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a different approach to Dow fifty thousand to s

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<v Speaker 2>and PA eight thousand. Ed Yard Denny, as an economist,

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<v Speaker 2>looks at the economy. John Stulfus is a market strategist,

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<v Speaker 2>looks much more at sectors and markets. The common feature

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<v Speaker 2>is the buoyancy of the economy innovation technologies, like Edyard

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<v Speaker 2>Denny would say. And then over to revenue, which John

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<v Speaker 2>Stoulfus mentioned today, I watch revenue dynamics as much as

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<v Speaker 2>I watched the key element, which is profit. We profited

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<v Speaker 2>from Captain Kominski joining us today in studio in New York.

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<v Speaker 2>She is hugely associated with the Charles River in Boston

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<v Speaker 2>and with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Katie Kominsky of

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<v Speaker 2>Elpha Simplex on the trend that's out there.

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<v Speaker 1>Trend falling as a strategy is meant to be self

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<v Speaker 1>correcting in the sense that as trends move against you,

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<v Speaker 1>your positions naturally reduce. So as you see trends expand

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<v Speaker 1>you're expanding positioning as you see them contracting, your contracting

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<v Speaker 1>positioning all using math. Really, when you have sort of

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<v Speaker 1>a reversal and signal, it's a combination of two things.

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<v Speaker 1>One is sort of the reduction in the signals strength.

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<v Speaker 1>The other is volatility expansion. So as volatility expands, you

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<v Speaker 1>also integrate that and how you measure what your position

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<v Speaker 1>sizing should be. So when that's why you see a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of quants struggled this year, because when you see

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<v Speaker 1>those type of shocks, it's hard to measure it inside baseball.

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<v Speaker 2>That was brilliant from Katie Kominsky bottle it. I literally

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<v Speaker 2>my first interview when I walked in the door at

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg was about trend following using the Bloomberg terminal as

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<v Speaker 2>giants of years ago did. Was Sun Microsystems Spark stations.

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<v Speaker 2>One of those founders of Katie Kominski's world was John

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<v Speaker 2>Henry who has a baseball team in Boston, an English

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<v Speaker 2>football team in Liverpool, and I believe he is ownership

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<v Speaker 2>of some form of the Sydney Crosby franchise in Pittsburgh.

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<v Speaker 2>Kati Kaminsky, wonderful to have her in today from Elvisimplex.

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<v Speaker 2>We're on podcasts, We're on Apple, We're on Spotify, on

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<v Speaker 2>YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea