1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: The single best idea. I'm not a typical September Friday. 3 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 2: We're supposed to slide into the weekend. There is no sliding. 4 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney was better than me. He brought it up 5 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 2: at least four times. Oh next week a government shutdown. 6 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 2: We barely looked at it, given the news flow and 7 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 2: of course some of the magic of a September sporting scene, 8 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:39,200 Speaker 2: Red Sox and the Tigers, the Yankees, the Blue Jays, 9 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 2: all of it just very exciting. And of course the 10 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:44,879 Speaker 2: Ryder Cup on Bloomberg Radio is really exciting for Washington, 11 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 2: New York. In Boston, we did look at the equity markets. 12 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 2: Three down days in a row, go to cash. John 13 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 2: Stolphe says No. At OpCo, he has been brilliant about 14 00:00:56,040 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 2: participating in the market in a rational way for long 15 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 2: term investment. Here from OpCo, John stolfs. 16 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 3: You need to distinguish between are you a trader or 17 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 3: are you an intermediate to longer term investor. And I think, 18 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:13,399 Speaker 3: as you know, I've been to this business since nineteen 19 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 3: eighty three, so I've been through a lot of economic 20 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 3: cycles and bull markets and bear markets and In the 21 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 3: process of this, the tone of the market has changed 22 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:30,039 Speaker 3: because the private investor today across generations is investing for 23 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 3: their retirement or investing in retirement, and they want to 24 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 3: preserve their standard of living or improve their standard of 25 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 3: living going forward. And from a historical basis past performance 26 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 3: being no guarantee future results tends to be Equities outperform 27 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 3: other asset classes for more periods than many people would 28 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 3: think who are bearish or skeptics on the market. 29 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 2: It's a different approach to Dow fifty thousand to s 30 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 2: and PA eight thousand. Ed Yard Denny, as an economist, 31 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 2: looks at the economy. John Stulfus is a market strategist, 32 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 2: looks much more at sectors and markets. The common feature 33 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:17,079 Speaker 2: is the buoyancy of the economy innovation technologies, like Edyard 34 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 2: Denny would say. And then over to revenue, which John 35 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 2: Stoulfus mentioned today, I watch revenue dynamics as much as 36 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 2: I watched the key element, which is profit. We profited 37 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 2: from Captain Kominski joining us today in studio in New York. 38 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 2: She is hugely associated with the Charles River in Boston 39 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 2: and with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Katie Kominsky of 40 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 2: Elpha Simplex on the trend that's out there. 41 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 1: Trend falling as a strategy is meant to be self 42 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: correcting in the sense that as trends move against you, 43 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: your positions naturally reduce. So as you see trends expand 44 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: you're expanding positioning as you see them contracting, your contracting 45 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 1: positioning all using math. Really, when you have sort of 46 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: a reversal and signal, it's a combination of two things. 47 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: One is sort of the reduction in the signals strength. 48 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 1: The other is volatility expansion. So as volatility expands, you 49 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 1: also integrate that and how you measure what your position 50 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 1: sizing should be. So when that's why you see a 51 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,239 Speaker 1: lot of quants struggled this year, because when you see 52 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: those type of shocks, it's hard to measure it inside baseball. 53 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 2: That was brilliant from Katie Kominsky bottle it. I literally 54 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 2: my first interview when I walked in the door at 55 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 2: Bloomberg was about trend following using the Bloomberg terminal as 56 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:41,559 Speaker 2: giants of years ago did. Was Sun Microsystems Spark stations. 57 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: One of those founders of Katie Kominski's world was John 58 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 2: Henry who has a baseball team in Boston, an English 59 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 2: football team in Liverpool, and I believe he is ownership 60 00:03:56,240 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 2: of some form of the Sydney Crosby franchise in Pittsburgh. 61 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 2: Kati Kaminsky, wonderful to have her in today from Elvisimplex. 62 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 2: We're on podcasts, We're on Apple, We're on Spotify, on 63 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 2: YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea