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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, Welcome to the Buck Brief. Aaron Parini, political

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Speaker 2: consultant extraordinaire, joins us right now to talk about the

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Speaker 2: debate which will be going on in the next twenty

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Speaker 2: four hours Trump Biden. Also some big race results that

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Speaker 2: are expected in the future and that have already happened

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Speaker 2: in Congress, in the Senate, you name it. But Aaron,

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Speaker 2: give everybody a little bit of your background, because I

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Speaker 2: like people to know who they're hearing from on this stuff.

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Speaker 2: You've been in this game at a high level for

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Speaker 2: a while.

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Speaker 1: I have been. I have been working in campaigns politics

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Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill for fifteen plus years now. I've worked

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Speaker 1: for the likes of Senator Ron Johnson, Senator Ted Cruz,

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Speaker 1: Senator John fun former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. In twenty twenty,

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Speaker 1: I worked on the Trump reelect as director press Communications.

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Speaker 1: I worked at Never Back Down the Super Pac as

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Speaker 1: communications director, and now I am at Estuum Strategies as

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Speaker 1: a political consultant. So spent a lot of time on

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Speaker 1: Capitol Hill and campaigns and here I am all right, so.

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Speaker 2: We got a big presidential debate coming up. How will

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Speaker 2: it matter in your mind in this election depending on

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Speaker 2: the likeliest outcomes, Like, what are your expectations for when

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Speaker 2: people wake up Friday morning? I know we haven't just

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Speaker 2: remons score, we haven't watched the debate yet, hasn't happened

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Speaker 2: yet as we're sitting here, What are your expectations for

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Speaker 2: if it's a good night for Trump? How and what

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Speaker 2: does that look like?

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Speaker 1: If it's a good night for Donald Trump? He is steady, measured,

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Speaker 1: punching back in the way that he is so good

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Speaker 1: at in this really astute moment kind of in case

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Speaker 1: what he's given as a comment, and he can retort

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Speaker 1: very quickly, but that it's policy focused and not personality focused.

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Speaker 1: Were Donald Trump's personality that he can be the winning

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Speaker 1: factor is in those really great quick equips and retorts

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Speaker 1: when he gets the opportunity to speak, but not the

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Speaker 1: overly interjecting. That kind of personality is great. But when

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Speaker 1: you're looking at the sixty to ten Americans are are

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Speaker 1: saying right now to polsters, they plan on watching the debate.

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Speaker 1: If you have any persuadable margin that sits in there,

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Speaker 1: which I'm sure the majority of those folks might be.

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Speaker 1: When you look at that group, what are you telling them?

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Speaker 1: Message wise? For Donald Trump to win the night, he

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Speaker 1: needs to be forward looking on his economic agenda, and

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Speaker 1: he can say, and I did it before. He wants

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Speaker 1: to be forward looking on his immigration agenda, and I

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Speaker 1: did it before. But as much as he just touches back,

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Speaker 1: he's telling the people what he's going to be doing.

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Speaker 1: As a contrast, point to Joe Biden, do.

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Speaker 2: You have any concerns that it's just effectively impossible for

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Speaker 2: Trump to get a fair enough I mean, there's no

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Speaker 2: such thing that's perfectly fair when you have a debate moderator.

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Speaker 2: To be clear, I mean I think that people whether

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Speaker 2: it's it's just like a referee of a sports event, right,

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Speaker 2: like people are going to get some calls right, some

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Speaker 2: calls wrong. People are going to be a little biased

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Speaker 2: one way or the other. But fair enough, I think

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Speaker 2: is what you can ask for, or the best you

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Speaker 2: can ask for in a presidential debate. Can he get

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Speaker 2: that with CNN or is that already out the window.

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Speaker 1: I'd like to believe he can get that with CNN,

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Speaker 1: this is a really big opportunity for the network itself

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Speaker 1: to show that when they've gone through this really rapid

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Speaker 1: evolution between the CEOs, Chrislicked and everybody else that's coming

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Speaker 1: and out, that they really have come more to the

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Speaker 1: center and have become less leaning. If Jake Tapper and

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Speaker 1: Dana Bash don't make themselves the news in this debate,

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Speaker 1: that for Donald Trump would be a win as well,

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Speaker 1: and would be as about a fair as shake as

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Speaker 1: he can get, because when they make themselves the story,

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Speaker 1: if they interject, if they try to do fact checking

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Speaker 1: in real time, which we've seen with CNN moderators in

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Speaker 1: the bat in the past. We want to go really

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Speaker 1: back to Candy Crowley when she tried to correct Romney

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Speaker 1: when he was debating brock Obama. She was wrong in

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Speaker 1: her correction at the time. So as long as they're

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Speaker 1: not making themselves the story, this is a This is

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Speaker 1: a fair shake, I think is Donald Trump's going to

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Speaker 1: be able.

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Speaker 2: To get And in terms of the the Biden what

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Speaker 2: do you what do you think? I mean, having worked

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Speaker 2: at in comms with different campaigns, is the Biden strategy Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I know, be able to stand up for ninety minutes.

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Speaker 2: That might be a challenge look awake for not you know,

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Speaker 2: there's some of that, But what do you think they're

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Speaker 2: trying to get out of this? Is it really just

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Speaker 2: as simple as Joe Biden. Isn't somebody who should be

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Speaker 2: in like a care home for you know, seniors who

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Speaker 2: are in decline. I mean, is it that simple and

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Speaker 2: therefore low expectations that he has to be or is

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Speaker 2: there a messaging component that they think they'll be able

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Speaker 2: to get out of it that might start to turn

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Speaker 2: the polls around in their favor.

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Speaker 1: So one thing about debates that debates don't pick campaign winners,

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Speaker 1: they pick campaign losers. If you have a bad moment

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Speaker 1: in a debate, it can tank your entire campaign cycle. Now,

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Speaker 1: the Young Kid mccauloff race in Virginia a couple of

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Speaker 1: years ago, Perry mccoff was already on a bit of

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Speaker 1: a slide downwards, but in his debate versus Glenn Youngkin,

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Speaker 1: he talked about parents not being able to be involved

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Speaker 1: in their children in school and touting that is a

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Speaker 1: good thing that was clipped. It went viral and that

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Speaker 1: really put the nail in the Terry mccauloff Coffin. So

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Speaker 1: for Joe Biden here what he needs to be able

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Speaker 1: to if what I anticipate his team is doing right

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Speaker 1: now is going through everything Donald Trump has said within

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Speaker 1: the last six months and finding lines that Biden can

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Speaker 1: deliver that they believe will knock Trump off his mark,

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Speaker 1: off his steady beacon in the middle, so that he

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Speaker 1: becomes more bombastic and tries to shout over the over

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Speaker 1: the muted mics and starts to get agitated and looks

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Speaker 1: like he's becoming to aggress it. That's my guess on

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Speaker 1: what the Biden team is doing, because if they knock

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Speaker 1: Trump off their mark and make it more of a

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Speaker 1: personality versus a policy fight, that's when Joe Biden will

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Speaker 1: likely do what could be considered well. One thing I

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Speaker 1: will say is no one should lower the bar on

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden being able to show up at this debate.

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Speaker 1: He has had fifty years of practice. This man is

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Speaker 1: a politician by trade, and while he might be hunkered

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Speaker 1: out down at Camp David, which is more exclusive than

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Speaker 1: Davos and the World Economic Forum at this point, with

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Speaker 1: his sixteen right hand people, if he shows up and

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Speaker 1: does what he did at the State of the Union,

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Speaker 1: which listen, I don't think that was a perfect state.

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Speaker 1: At the Union address, he was yelling, he got bombastic,

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Speaker 1: but overall he got very high marks. He does that

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Speaker 1: which with all of the prep, and everybody should be

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Speaker 1: asking themselves, why does our sitting president need to take

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Speaker 1: almost an entire week off of work when we have

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Speaker 1: a crisis at the southern border, the economy is still

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Speaker 1: not strong enough, we see geopolitical catastrophe. He has to

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Speaker 1: take the entire week off to study on Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: who he's run against before, to try and show up

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Speaker 1: for ninety minutes. That is what worries me. But don't

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Speaker 1: lower the bar and bite because they are taking this time.

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Speaker 1: They are taking this week to get him as ready

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Speaker 1: as they can to stand on that debate stage and

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Speaker 1: look residential.

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Speaker 2: Aaron, I want to get your take on some of

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Speaker 2: the congressional primary results that we've seen, specifically or most

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Speaker 2: notably in New York with the Ouster from his seat

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Speaker 2: of Jamal Bowman. But first up, before we get there's

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Speaker 2: going to tell everybody about Porter and Company. Look, Porter

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Speaker 2: Stansbury's been a good friend of mine for a decade now,

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Speaker 2: and he's done something that's really interesting. He's changed his

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Speaker 2: compensation entirely. And he's a guy who runs a very

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Speaker 2: successful company. He's the CEO and founder. He gets paid

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Speaker 2: a dollar a year. He might be saying, well, why

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Speaker 2: does he do that? Porter believes there's a new form

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Speaker 2: of money that means that you can get paid in

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Speaker 2: a much better way than just straight cash compensation. Now,

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Speaker 2: this isn't just for CEOs, it's not just for people

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Speaker 2: in certain businesses. This is something that is available to anyone.

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Speaker 2: But you have to know how this new means of

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Speaker 2: getting paid works. It's not gold or bitcoin, Porter says.

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Speaker 2: Everyone's entitled to use this secret currency, but you know

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Speaker 2: much about it. Change that learn from Porter. He wants

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Speaker 2: to talk to you about it himself. Check out Porter's

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Speaker 2: latest detailed presentation at Secret Currency twenty twenty four dot com.

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Speaker 2: He details how to protect and grow your wealth in

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Speaker 2: the years to come using America's new money. Secret Currency

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four dot com is the website to go.

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Speaker 2: Check out this presentation that Secret Currency twenty twenty four

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Speaker 2: dot com. All Right, Aaron the Bowman Loss in New

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Speaker 2: York's for it the seventeenth, the fourteenth, I forget which

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Speaker 2: congressional district. It is, but it's in the bronx in

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Speaker 2: Westchester and New York City. The Jamal Bowman loss is

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Speaker 2: interesting and getting a lot of national attention. It's the

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Speaker 2: Democrat who won. Obviously, it's in a primary, and that

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Speaker 2: Democrat's going to win the seat. What do you see

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Speaker 2: that happen there that could affect other races? What dynamics

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Speaker 2: were at play?

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Speaker 1: There are a number of dynamics. One that Bowman represents

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Speaker 1: the most radical progressive portion of the democratic left. Right,

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Speaker 1: you are looking at a squad member who was saying

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Speaker 1: incredibly anti Semitic things and the APAC which is Israel

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Speaker 1: related super pack. They stood up money and really played

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Speaker 1: into this race. But also you saw that not only

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Speaker 1: was this anti Semitic rhetoric condemned and ousted from offices,

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Speaker 1: it should have been, but it's showing that the furthest

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Speaker 1: reaches of the radical left, those who really are AOC

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Speaker 1: prea Jayapaol Bowman himself, are no longer being seen. Corey

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Speaker 1: Bush is in a very close primary right now, with

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Speaker 1: her race almost statistically tied. Because these radical left positions

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Speaker 1: are being rejected by more moderate Democrats that should be

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Speaker 1: a warning sign to Joe Biden. Joe Biden is currently

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Speaker 1: looking at a Democrat primary electorate that has rejected time

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Speaker 1: and again, and it's been that progressive portion of the

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Speaker 1: primary electorate that has been more on the side of

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Speaker 1: Gaza and Hamas than they have been on Israel's ability

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Speaker 1: to protect themselves that is being rejected now by Democrats.

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Speaker 1: So while Joe Biden isn't doing what he needs to

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Speaker 1: do when it comes to standing up and protecting Jewish

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Speaker 1: citizens in la who are being attacked at synagogues, when

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Speaker 1: he's not doing enough to shut down anti Semitic rhetoric

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Speaker 1: on campuses, the Democratic base is rejecting that. So not

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Speaker 1: only have the progressives rejected Joe Biden throughout the primary,

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Speaker 1: You've seen many states throughout the primary process where uncommitted

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Speaker 1: no vote Democrats would show up, but say not Joe Biden.

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Speaker 1: So the progressive left is being rejected by Democrats. But

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden is trying to appease that progressive left to

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Speaker 1: try and keep the Democrat coalition base together for him

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Speaker 1: to then be able to pivot to the middle for

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Speaker 1: general election message to try and win in November. This

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Speaker 1: fracture in the Democrat Party right now, the rejection of

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Speaker 1: the progressive leftist Joe Biden continues to play that way

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Speaker 1: with more moderate Democrats saying this isn't what we want

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Speaker 1: really spells catastrophe for Joe Biden in the fall, because

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Speaker 1: if he cannot shore up this Democratic coalition base, he's

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Speaker 1: never going to be able to be talking to persuadable voters.

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Speaker 1: His message on national television will be about appeasing the

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Speaker 1: radical left and continuing to propose policies that do just that,

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Speaker 1: or taking an action at the pest of the radical left.

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Speaker 1: Those are going to be huge issues for him when

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Speaker 1: it is independence that will be deciding this election in

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Speaker 1: the fall and he's got a fractured Democrat Party.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to come in and talk to you about

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Speaker 2: Trump is saying, or at least as reporting, that he

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Speaker 2: may announce his VP very soon, certainly the next couple

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Speaker 2: of weeks. Some of you even said he might do it

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Speaker 2: before the debate tomorrow. We'll see. I wanted to know

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Speaker 2: what if you have a take on the VP roll

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Speaker 2: in terms of how it could affect the selection, and

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Speaker 2: if you have somebody that you think will be or

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Speaker 2: would even be the best choice. We'll get to that

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Speaker 2: in a second, though, because I want to talk about

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Speaker 2: bar Creek Arsenal here. A quality rifle costs a lot

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Speaker 2: of money, right, Oh, not necessarily not with Bear Creek Arsenal.

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Speaker 2: They make high performance firearms. I mean incredibly accurate, durable,

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Speaker 2: well made, and they feel good in your hands. I

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Speaker 2: know because I use them myself. I've got three Bear

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Speaker 2: Creek Arsenal firearms. I'm out at the range with them,

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Speaker 2: and these are top quality. And when you see the

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Speaker 2: prices you can pay for Bear Creek Arsenal, it will

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Speaker 2: blow your mind. You've got to go to this site yourself.

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Speaker 2: They've got twenty six calibers available on the website. The

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Speaker 2: recently released eight six Blackout is amazing. They're even so

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Speaker 2: confident in their products they offer a limited lifetime warranty.

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Speaker 2: I've got two Bear Creek ars here at home. I've

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Speaker 2: also got their Grizzly, which is a wonderful side arm.

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Speaker 2: Highly recommend you accurate, liable, and highly affordable. Bear Creek

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Speaker 2: Arsenal a great firearms company, all American base here in

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Speaker 2: North Carolina, and they've got some incredible sales going for

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Speaker 2: July too, so don't wait. Go to bear Creek Arsenal

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Speaker 2: dot com and use my name buck for a ten

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Speaker 2: percent off your order sale. That's right, Bearcreekarsenal dot com.

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Speaker 2: Use coupon code buck for ten percent off your order.

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Speaker 2: Exclusions apply. I now want to ask on the VP side, Aaron,

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Speaker 2: do you think there's a VP that's definitely gonna you

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Speaker 2: know that you think I should say, is going to

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Speaker 2: be the choice? Does it matter for the election who

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Speaker 2: the choice is? How do you how do you come

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Speaker 2: down on the veep steaks for Trump?

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Speaker 1: I think there are a lot of political pundits who

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Speaker 1: would say, oh, he needs to pick a woman, he

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Speaker 1: needs to pick a minority, It'll help him shore up

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Speaker 1: the electoral base. That's just not really how it actually happens.

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Speaker 1: When voters show up to the polls, people aren't voting

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Speaker 1: on the vice president. They're voting on the top of

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Speaker 1: the ticket. So he needs somebody that can help serve

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Speaker 1: the mission of his presidency if he wins in November.

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Speaker 1: Somebody who can help in money right now, because fundraising

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Speaker 1: is a crucial part of campaigning. Somebody who can help

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Speaker 1: carry the message on TV and at events. Somebody who

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Speaker 1: can go to those events and help recruit voters and

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Speaker 1: volunteers and keep this movement going. If you look at

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Speaker 1: the slate of people who have been out there so

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Speaker 1: far and have names floated, you've heard a least Stephonic,

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Speaker 1: Ben Carson, Tim Scott, Doug Bergham. You've got a big

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Speaker 1: list of people who are out there. But if you

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Speaker 1: look at who would likely serve, in my mind, the

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Speaker 1: best purpose for Donald Trump, it would be probably one

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Speaker 1: of two people. One would be Doug Burgham. I think

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Speaker 1: the CEO background that he has, the business background that

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Speaker 1: he has is really helpful one for not only bringing

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Speaker 1: in donors to the party, but two executing on work

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Speaker 1: that's going to be a different mentality that comes up

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Speaker 1: to Capitol Hill to help negotiate on behalf of the

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Speaker 1: president and the administration to get things done. He's also

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Speaker 1: not going to try to outshine Trump at all, and

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Speaker 1: he's probably not going to use it to try to

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Speaker 1: catapult immediately into running for president in four years after that.

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Speaker 1: I think Tim Scott could be an interesting choice because

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Speaker 1: he does have the Capitol Hill credentials that again are

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Speaker 1: really an important part of the vice president is being

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Speaker 1: able to go up there you're the president of the

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Speaker 1: Senate as the vice president, so you do a lot

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Speaker 1: of legislative work up on the hill to make sure

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Speaker 1: that the policy and priorities are getting done. Both of

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Speaker 1: those could be really interesting. I don't think it would be.

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Speaker 1: But I think that Glenn Youngkin would also be a

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Speaker 1: really interesting choice given that CEO background, given the fact

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Speaker 1: that he could also bring in donors to the party

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Speaker 1: and bring in dollars. I think those are kind of

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Speaker 1: the two big things. Who's going to be able to

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Speaker 1: supplement on the policy side and who's going to be

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Speaker 1: able to supplement on the campaign side. I think any

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Speaker 1: of those three are options, but right now my front

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Speaker 1: runner would be Doug Burgram.

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Speaker 2: Interesting. Those are all names that are clearly at the

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Speaker 2: top of the list, and so that all is no

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Speaker 2: surprises there, right I mean, I would expect you'd say

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Speaker 2: those names. I didn't hear you mention jd Vance though

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Speaker 2: I was thinking you would. So why not jd Vance

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Speaker 2: at the top of your list? Because I've been saying

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Speaker 2: I think it will be jd Vance for months now.

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Speaker 1: The list is really big. It's not to say I

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Speaker 1: don't think that jd Vance has a chance. I just

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Speaker 1: believe that when it comes to what we're looking at,

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Speaker 1: what we're seeing reported right now, who's kind of playing

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Speaker 1: the race the best? I actually do think that's Doug Burgham.

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Speaker 1: He's done a great job since he came out of

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Speaker 1: the primary and standing behind Trump, being readily available, being

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Speaker 1: out there campaigning, being part of that team in a

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Speaker 1: really aggressive way. Not to say Senator Vance hasn't, but

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Speaker 1: Doug Burgham has in a really monumental way. What was

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Speaker 1: the Easter. You saw him walking out of mar A

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Speaker 1: Lago right behind the President and his family. He's very

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Speaker 1: close to President Trump, so is jd. Vance. But I

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Speaker 1: still don't know. I still think it's Doug Burgham. Listen,

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Speaker 1: there could be a dark horse candidate that nobody's talking about,

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Speaker 1: although that I doubt because I think Trump kind of

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Speaker 1: likes people when they float themselves a little bit and

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Speaker 1: kind of play this media game that we're seeing with

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Speaker 1: some of these names.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, despite what some people are saying out there, I

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Speaker 2: like radio too much, so I just I can't accept,

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Speaker 2: as much as I would love to, the Trump VP slot.

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Speaker 1: But you know that's the ultimate dark horse. Buck Sexton

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Speaker 1: for sex.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you did Trump did say once, probably the

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Speaker 2: best hair in radio, and I'm like, what does that mean.

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Speaker 2: I'm like, hold on a second, hold on, is that

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Speaker 2: like face for radio? But anyway, Trump's very funny, Aaron.

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Speaker 2: Great to have you on. Where can folks go follow

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Speaker 2: you on social media? What's the best place to hear

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Speaker 2: more of your analysis?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Follow me on Twitter? Aaron M. Parini on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: I'm there. I talk politics, sports, Diehard, Buffalo Bills, and

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Speaker 1: Yukon Fan and a little bit of Bravo too, So

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Speaker 1: a little bit of personality, a little bit of politics.

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Speaker 2: The best Bravo show is.

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Speaker 1: Summer House Fantastic season right now? Oh my gosh, bethe'son.

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Speaker 2: Ever Million Dollar Sting NYC is the correct answer, But

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Speaker 2: that's all right. You're allowed to You're allowed to pick

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Speaker 2: your VP choice, You're allowed to pick your best Bravo show. Aaron, Brittany, everybody, Aaron,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Thank you