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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakoma.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver.

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Speaker 3: Today on the show, we'll talk about the ongoing wildfires

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Speaker 3: in Los Angeles and we'll take a listener question about

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Speaker 3: Elon Musk, the river and the village.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get into it. Before we get into

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Speaker 1: the wildfires. You know, really serious, weighty topic, incredibly important,

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about something a little bit lighter. Nate, you

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Speaker 1: just got back from a trip to Tokyo and a soul,

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Speaker 1: so you were halfway around the world.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, if I'm fifteen.

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Speaker 3: We had this debate my partner like, can you really

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Speaker 3: be like fifteen hours ahead? Doesn't that mean like eleven

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Speaker 3: hours behind or nine? Can't be the fucking math. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm a little little guy, a little be the lag.

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Speaker 1: As we say, welcome back to New York, and we

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Speaker 1: hope that your your jet lag well evaporate soon enough.

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Speaker 1: But tell us a little bit about about that trip,

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Speaker 1: just because I think it's absolutely fascinating. Two great cities,

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Speaker 1: such a fascinating part of the world, but also one

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Speaker 1: where you had to make a lot of travel decisions. Right,

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Speaker 1: A lot of risky decisions.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, so one thing is so, first of all,

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Speaker 3: I love both cities. We were lucky enough to have

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Speaker 3: a good Korean American friend that we traveled with and

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Speaker 3: caught up with another friend in Tokyo, so we had.

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Speaker 2: The other friend helped to help got up.

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Speaker 1: You wouldn't know the other Fay, not our mutual poker

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Speaker 1: friend who listen in Tokyo.

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Speaker 3: No, no degenerate poker playing this start degenerously was merely

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Speaker 3: no pachinko parlors.

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Speaker 2: We just ate a lot.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: Everyone's like, oh, I went to Asia and or Europe

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Speaker 3: and actually I lost weight because I walked.

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Speaker 1: So it's like, nah, I always find that that's bullshit.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, God, just give me food.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they are like they are in some ways,

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Speaker 3: like Japan is kind of a more risk of society

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Speaker 3: than other countries. You know, I'm not sure if I

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Speaker 3: want to, you know, as Korea as in certain ways too.

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Speaker 3: But like so, apart from the food, which was wonderful

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Speaker 3: seeing these two countries.

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Speaker 2: Back to back, where on the one hand, if you look.

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Speaker 3: At the per capita GDP of Japan's may not be

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Speaker 3: exactly precisely right, but like it's like basically the same

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Speaker 3: as it was in the nineties, So the country has

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Speaker 3: not really grown for for forty years now.

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Speaker 1: Crazy where Korea.

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Speaker 3: Has now per capital wise, caught up with Japan or

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Speaker 3: surpassed it and feels more modern in certain ways. I mean, certainly,

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Speaker 3: you know, Tokyo is a very comfortable place to live,

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Speaker 3: but you know, solely the English they speak tends to

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Speaker 3: be a little bit better. It's a little bit more

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Speaker 3: modern in different ways. I think Korean culture, to make

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Speaker 3: very broad way gay state has been this is like emerging, right.

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Speaker 3: You have like all these oscar Ward winning films and

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Speaker 3: the art we saw it was interesting, and you know,

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Speaker 3: it's a culture that's gone from being for a long

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Speaker 3: time a very poor country to being relatively wealthy in

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Speaker 3: a hurry.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting now.

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Speaker 3: I was at both countries, but especially Korea have these

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Speaker 3: very low birth rates, which is that's what we've talked

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Speaker 3: about before. I guess neither of us have kids, so

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Speaker 3: many were part of the problem, right, But like I know,

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Speaker 3: just again dumb wake eye observations to arrive in this

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Speaker 3: country that just as all of a sudden found itself

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Speaker 3: as being like kind of a big player in the

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Speaker 3: region and on the world stage. But now it's like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think we're comfortable here, and maybe that's not It's

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Speaker 3: just it's just interesting. I'm not sure how to how

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Speaker 3: to like put without having too many stereotypes. I suppose, yeah, which,

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Speaker 3: see the contrast back to back was fascinating to me.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure it was. I'm sure it was. So. I've

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Speaker 1: actually never been to Seoul, but I did last week

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Speaker 1: watch Maybe Happy Ending on Broadway, which is a play

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Speaker 1: about two robots uh in South Korea who end up

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Speaker 1: falling in love and taking a trip to Jju Islands.

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Speaker 1: So bonus shout out to poker players who like to

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Speaker 1: play the Jju series. There is a poker scene in

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Speaker 1: Korea as well, so so I I, you know, I

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Speaker 1: felt like I was missing out on your trip, so

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Speaker 1: I had to vicariously make it happen on Broadway.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we did.

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Speaker 3: Travel only those two destinations, Seoul in Tokyo. So it's

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Speaker 3: a little bit weird after a long year with elections

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Speaker 3: and the podcast getting started, whatever else to like relax

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Speaker 3: by going to these gigantic cities. But I think it

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Speaker 3: was Actually I think we are grouped three of us

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Speaker 3: we have planned maybe go to Kyoto or maybe we'll

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Speaker 3: go somewhere else in Korea or both. And like I think,

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Speaker 3: I think I advocate for having fewer yeah destinations, right.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I'm actually with you. I think this is a

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Speaker 1: good you know, we did our gto travel episode and

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Speaker 1: I think this is actually what I find. I think travel,

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Speaker 1: you know, is different for different people, but one of

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Speaker 1: my travel tips is don't put too many destinations on there.

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Speaker 1: And I actually prefer to go to just one place

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Speaker 1: and uh and stay there. And I know every single

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Speaker 1: person is different, but for me, I think that's like

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Speaker 1: maxid for for a trip that you'll really get a

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Speaker 1: lot out of. On that note, let's talk about the

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Speaker 1: LA fires. Obviously, you know, much more serious, much heavier topic,

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Speaker 1: but I think it's a really important one for us

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Speaker 1: to discuss because obviously there are so many topics of

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Speaker 1: risky decision making, risk perception, how we act on risky information,

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Speaker 1: and I think we want to talk about it from

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Speaker 1: two different perspectives, right one. And this is something we've

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Speaker 1: talked about on the show before, but I think it's

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Speaker 1: incredibly relevant and kind of relevant for the future and

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Speaker 1: for the entire country, not just for California, which is

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Speaker 1: the insurance angle, right, and the future of the insurance industry.

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Speaker 1: How to think about risk from that perspective, both as

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Speaker 1: the insurance company, but also as the individual purchasing property,

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Speaker 1: purchasing or electing not to purchase insurance. And then I'd

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Speaker 1: also like to talk about kind of the individual psychological

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Speaker 1: risk perceptions here, not just the insurance component, but like,

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Speaker 1: you know, what happens if you're in one of these zones,

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Speaker 1: how do you handle risk? How do you respond? I

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Speaker 1: think that those are two related but distinct areas, and

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Speaker 1: I think that both are really interesting and core core

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Speaker 1: risky decision metrics. So let's start with the insurance angle.

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Speaker 1: We've talked a little about this before in California, not

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Speaker 1: just in California, all over the country, you know, Florida,

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Speaker 1: some other states. Insurance have been pulling out of regions

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Speaker 1: where the risk of disasters natural disasters has risen, and

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Speaker 1: that is a lot of different parts of the country.

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Speaker 1: And in the last few years insurers have started using

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Speaker 1: different models, right, because insurance isn't backwards looking business in general, right,

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Speaker 1: you look at risks and then you try to kind

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Speaker 1: of extrapolate, and that's not working anymore with climate change,

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Speaker 1: with all of these things happening, and so especially I

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Speaker 1: don't know whether all insurance companies are doing this, but

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Speaker 1: I know that a lot of insurance companies and a

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Speaker 1: lot of the insurers in California have started using AI

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Speaker 1: and other things to try to change their risk models

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Speaker 1: to take into account the fact that the world is changing.

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Speaker 1: And they even flagged the Palisades as an incredibly dangerous area.

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Speaker 1: And so some of those you can't get insurance anymore. So, yeah,

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Speaker 1: let's let's talk about it. Let's hear some of your

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Speaker 1: thoughts on this process and on what it means.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So, in addition to the challenge with doing any

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Speaker 3: type of statistical modeling, which is always more difficult than

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Speaker 3: people want to let on, if you have disaster risk

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Speaker 3: it's affected by climate change, then you don't really have

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Speaker 3: an empirical baseline, right, You're probably doing more elaborate forms

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Speaker 3: of modeling or maybe actually trying to do some climatology

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Speaker 3: or whatever else. Right, But it's a lot of like

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Speaker 3: educated guesswork. I guess, i'd say, right from what little

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Speaker 3: research I've done on you know, what's the effect of

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Speaker 3: climate change and particular types of disasters.

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Speaker 2: I think it's not quite so linear as you might assume.

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Speaker 2: It's probably bad, but.

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Speaker 3: You know, some of the models say, for example, that

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Speaker 3: the hurricanes are fewer hurricanes, but they're more severe, probably worse.

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Speaker 3: Net from like a climate modeling perspective, right to a

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Speaker 3: fewer but more devastating storms, and we had some this year,

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Speaker 3: it's probably worse. But you know, if you're seeing you

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Speaker 3: get into different problems, you also get an issue that

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Speaker 3: like it's not like a thing where like, I know,

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Speaker 3: if you have like some home insurance, we're like, oh,

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Speaker 3: my home gets broken into whatever. Like that's more stochastic

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Speaker 3: and random, not perfectly. There's probably some correlation, whether there's

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Speaker 3: some gang of I don't know, bandits or thieves or whatever.

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Speaker 3: But like, but you know, if this disaster all comes

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Speaker 3: at once and all of well not all of Los Angeles,

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Speaker 3: should emphasize. By the way, LA is a very it's

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Speaker 3: a very large area. I mean I was very briefly

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Speaker 3: in LA on the way home, and you know, we

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Speaker 3: were in the part of LA which wasn't on fire.

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Speaker 3: But it's a very large area and certainly the you know,

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Speaker 3: expensive area too, and so so you know, one issue

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Speaker 3: is like the modeling issue.

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Speaker 1: So yes, so we have we have these issues of modeling.

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Speaker 1: But even even with those problems, I think that you

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Speaker 1: know something that you just started mentioning is when you

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Speaker 1: have risks that are highly correlated, right, it's very very

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Speaker 1: difficult to to try to figure out, Okay, how much

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Speaker 1: should I charge in premiums. And in some place like California,

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Speaker 1: you also have another thing where there's regulation right where

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Speaker 1: insurance companies are required to have a certain number of reserves.

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Speaker 1: Until very recently, they couldn't raise their premiums as much

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Speaker 1: as their models said they needed to raise their premiums.

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Speaker 1: So instead they just said, okay, fine, like fuck it,

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Speaker 1: we're not going to ensure these places like you can't

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Speaker 1: renew your insurance, you can't, you can't do anything. And

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Speaker 1: that puts a lot of people in very difficult situations.

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Speaker 1: And the areas that are burning in La Sure, you

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Speaker 1: have the Palisades with some incredibly expensive housing, some of

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Speaker 1: the most expensive real estate in the country, but then

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Speaker 1: you also have parts of you know, Altadena and other

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Speaker 1: parts of LA where there are lots of people who

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Speaker 1: are poor, who have been there forever. And you know

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Speaker 1: what in the world happens right when you can no longer,

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Speaker 1: when either the insurance says we won't ensure you or

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Speaker 1: the premiums are so expensive, then you're like, I can't

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Speaker 1: afford this anymore. You do, and there are families that

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Speaker 1: chose like last year, right, I'm not going to renew

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Speaker 1: my insurance coverage, and then this happens.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I mean.

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Speaker 3: This has been in the news a lot because of

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Speaker 3: like these beautiful, glamorous properties and like outside Malibu when

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Speaker 3: the Palisades burning, for example, but like, yeah, it's affected

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Speaker 3: all types of.

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Speaker 2: Areas of LA and LA is like more of a.

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Speaker 3: More of a middle class kind of working class town

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Speaker 3: than I think some people realize. Really, right, the average

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Speaker 3: per capita income isn't that high, you know. Look, so yeah,

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Speaker 3: there are these three issues, like we mentioned with insurance.

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Speaker 3: One is that the modeling itself is difficult, involves a

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Speaker 3: moving target. A second is that there's some degree maybe

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Speaker 3: less so with like home insurance, but some degree of

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Speaker 3: adverse selection is a term where if you're someone who

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Speaker 3: buys insurance and not everybody does, and maybe you're more

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Speaker 3: of a risk than the model would let on, right,

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Speaker 3: you're buying insurance. I mean the anauochy I give is

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Speaker 3: like if you have like an all you can eat buffet, right,

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Speaker 3: there is adverse selection for who comes and eats at

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Speaker 3: the all you can.

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Speaker 2: Eat the fe right.

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Speaker 3: Probably if you don't you don't want to have it

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Speaker 3: all you can eat buffet set up outside like a

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Speaker 3: sumo wrestling tournament for example.

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Speaker 1: That's another that's a business model.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and that if you know, for some people, the

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Speaker 3: expected value of insurance, I mean you know this is complicated.

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Speaker 3: On the one hand, it has to do with like

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Speaker 3: hedging catastrophic risk and diminishing marginal returns. Right, Like if

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Speaker 3: your home is worth two million dollars, your net worth

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Speaker 3: is four million dollars, so it's half your net worth, right, Well,

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Speaker 3: then probably in principle there is negative expected value for

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Speaker 3: most forms of insurance in terms of like the pure

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Speaker 3: dollar amount. Right, the risk of your house burning is

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Speaker 3: supposedly lower than than the premium that you get from it.

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Speaker 3: But you know, you much rather pay the small amount

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Speaker 3: then than have to have to uh lose half your

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Speaker 3: net worth in one inverno basically, But yeah, the third

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Speaker 3: issue is at California is a state with lots of

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't even say well intended regulations necessarily. I mean

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Speaker 3: it's I don't think it's the most economically literate state, frankly,

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Speaker 3: or the postumakers are especially smart, uh, frankly, but you know,

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Speaker 3: based in a combination including by the way, some of

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Speaker 3: these are things that like are ballot measures passed by

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Speaker 3: you know, to stay with a bunch of referendum right,

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Speaker 3: everything goes to direct democracy. People like me might think

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Speaker 3: this is kind of wonderful in the abstract it's ruled

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Speaker 3: by true democracy and not ruled by the expert class,

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Speaker 3: et cetera.

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Speaker 2: But like it creates issues.

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Speaker 3: I believe the rules that basically any insurance increase has

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Speaker 3: to be appointed by an insurance commissioner in California, which

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Speaker 3: is like a regulated industry, instead of kind of letting

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Speaker 3: them market take care of it. So, yeah, these insurance

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Speaker 3: cups are correct. I think to say that if you

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Speaker 3: have limits on what we can charge and we have

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Speaker 3: now have negative expected value, then fuck you, We're not

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Speaker 3: going to offer insurance in the first place. And that's

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Speaker 3: a rational reaction.

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Speaker 2: I think.

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Speaker 1: On top of the other risks, it is completely rational.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you have to remember that insurance companies are

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Speaker 1: also businesses, right, They're not pro bono organizations. This is

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Speaker 1: not like a federal relief fund that is there to

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Speaker 1: catch you it is. It is something that you know,

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Speaker 1: even if the returns are low, you need some positive returns.

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Speaker 1: It's not a business that's going to be a money

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Speaker 1: losing business. And so you understand that, but then you

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Speaker 1: end up in this situation where like, what the fuck

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Speaker 1: do you do?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 1: If I am a person who you know has always

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Speaker 1: lived in California and who lives in California and I,

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Speaker 1: you know, my house burned down, what do I do? Right? Like?

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Speaker 1: It puts people in these impossible situations, and it's it's horrible,

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Speaker 1: Like I you know, I'm just a little bit of editorializing,

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Speaker 1: but like we shouldn't be in a situation where people are,

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Speaker 1: you know, sharing GoFundMe campaigns for everyone, right like that

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Speaker 1: that shouldn't be the case. There should be especially if

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Speaker 1: you're somewhere like California where you know this is a

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Speaker 1: thing there, they should figure out a way to make

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Speaker 1: this work or you know, or not and just not

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Speaker 1: let people live there. You know that it's kind of

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Speaker 1: one of these one of these very very stark contrasts.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, look, I mean there is a backup state program

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Speaker 3: called Fair fai R.

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Speaker 2: The mechanics are a little bit complicated.

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Speaker 3: It looks like if it runs, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 3: you can buy a premium, right, it's not particularly cheap.

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Speaker 3: If fair overall runs out of money, I think there's

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Speaker 3: some pocket they're taking from private insurers who are selling

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Speaker 3: insurance in California, which ultimately makes insurance more expensive to

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Speaker 3: sell in California. And so you know, it's one of

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Speaker 3: these other perverse incentives. But but there is there is

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Speaker 3: that option at least available up to some limit, I

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Speaker 3: think up to three million dollars worth of coverage. So

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Speaker 3: let me be a little bit of the turn in

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Speaker 3: the punch bowl for a second. Right, you don't see

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Speaker 3: a lot of efforts to like be honest and forthright

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Speaker 3: about the about the fire risk here, right with the

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Speaker 3: way different properties are built and the amount of distance

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Speaker 3: between for example, the amount of distance between this.

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Speaker 2: Like shrubbery, what's called chaparral or chaparral. How do you

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Speaker 2: say that?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know. That's one of those words that

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Speaker 1: I read and never say out loud.

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Speaker 2: So I've never said that word out loud, have.

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Speaker 1: I know I have good syndrome. There are so many chaparral, chaparral, chaparral, chaparral.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I like how that AI bought

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Speaker 2: said that.

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Speaker 3: But you have a lot of this kind of shrubbery

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Speaker 3: and they're not like forests per se. They're catching on fire, right.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you've been to California maybe get a

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Speaker 3: little bit of this and Vegas then not quite right.

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Speaker 3: But you have those kind of dry, bushy area, right,

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Speaker 3: it's not super dense, but where fires can to spread

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Speaker 3: pretty fast. Right, they're not doing a lot of cultivation.

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Speaker 3: You can do controlled burns and areas that are fire risks.

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Speaker 3: There is reluctance to do that. Whenever you do one

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Speaker 3: of those things, you have to go through five years

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Speaker 3: of regulation and environmental studies and whatever else. Right, But

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Speaker 3: there's not a lot of honesty about like the way

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Speaker 3: these properties are designed to mitigate fire risk. And maybe

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Speaker 3: that will be there will be more now, right, but

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Speaker 3: like you know, and that kind of puts homeowners at risk,

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Speaker 3: and so you know, so if your home can be

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Speaker 3: covered by insurance, then that can create a moral hazard.

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Speaker 3: It's the other famous insurance turn along with ever selection, right,

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Speaker 3: where like if I am covering, I mean the classic

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Speaker 3: example is like the bank bailouts, right, where if the

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Speaker 3: government steps in and prevents whichever companies Morgan Stanley you

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Speaker 3: I want to accuse because companies, I'm sure all the

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Speaker 3: all the all the big Wall Street firms had like

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Speaker 3: something's evolved, right, But if they're going to come and

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Speaker 3: bail you out if you fuck up, h then you

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Speaker 3: have an incentive to like make risk your bets, right.

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Speaker 3: And I don't think homeowners individually are are quite as

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Speaker 3: calculating as like the banks might be. But like I

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Speaker 3: almost as a rule that like, if you create a

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Speaker 3: rule where there is financial upside to basically what we

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Speaker 3: what we term like an exploitative strategy in poker, right.

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Speaker 2: Then people will exploit that.

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Speaker 3: In the capitalist system, people will build right up to

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Speaker 3: the edges kind of figured oily or literally, and so

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Speaker 3: that can be that can be a problem to potentially, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 1: Think this is a good kind of pivot point to

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Speaker 1: to looking at this from the individual side as opposed

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Speaker 1: to from the from the insurance company side. Because people,

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Speaker 1: you know, when we've we talk about this all the time.

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Speaker 1: People are not rational when they're evaluating risks, and they're

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Speaker 1: especially not rational when it's like a personal thing like

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Speaker 1: you know, I've always lived in this area, right, or

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Speaker 1: or you know, I you know, I want to do this.

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Speaker 1: And sometimes they're gamblers, right, sometimes they're actually risk seeking

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Speaker 1: in this particular case because they kind of take the

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Speaker 1: gamble that, oh, sure, like there's a risk of a fire,

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Speaker 1: but like my house isn't going to burn down because

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Speaker 1: it hasn't burned down for you know, however many years,

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Speaker 1: and there are properties. So one of the one of

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Speaker 1: the places that burned one of the businesses that burned

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Speaker 1: down in La is real In, where I've been. You've

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Speaker 1: probably been there too. It's on the way kind of

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Speaker 1: on the road to Malibu. There's only one road by

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Speaker 1: the way, which is also not great in terms of

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Speaker 1: natural disaster and like trying to get away and trying

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Speaker 1: to get the fuck out of there when it's burning,

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Speaker 1: which is why people have had to abandon cars and

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Speaker 1: bad things have happened. But real In burned down and

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Speaker 1: it was there for I think over thirty five years, right,

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Speaker 1: that specific business. But if you've been there for thirty

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Speaker 1: five years. You think, oh, well, yes, they're fire risks

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Speaker 1: in Malibu, blah blah blah. But we've always been fine, right,

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Speaker 1: so we're going to just continue to be fine. People

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Speaker 1: do have this tendency to be ostrich, like right, ostriches

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Speaker 1: are the ones that bury their hand in the sand,

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Speaker 1: and do I have the right analogy? And you want

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Speaker 1: to when it's convenient to ignore these things. You want

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Speaker 1: to ignore it because you want to be comfortable, Like

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Speaker 1: you don't want to make the tough decision of saying, Okay,

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Speaker 1: you know what, we need to sell our house and

382
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Speaker 1: we need to move to a different part of the state.

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Speaker 1: We need to move all the way out of California. Like,

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Speaker 1: people don't want to make those hard decisions, and so

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Speaker 1: instead of doing that, they're just going to fudge the

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Speaker 1: risk in their mind and take something which to us

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Speaker 1: looks like, you know, an irrational or very gambly decision,

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Speaker 1: which might not actually align with their risk preferences. Right.

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Speaker 1: I doubt that all the people who had houses that

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Speaker 1: burned down were risk seeking. Some of them might not

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Speaker 1: have cared, right, like some of the If you're very

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Speaker 1: wealthy and you just say, Okay, if my house burns down, fine,

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Speaker 1: I'll just rebuild, right, Like, That's that's one way of

394
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Speaker 1: looking at it. But I'm talking about like the lower

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Speaker 1: middle class people who aren't thinking that way. They might

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Speaker 1: appear risk seeking because of that choice, but in their

397
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Speaker 1: minds they're not right. They just they do they miscalculate willfully,

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Speaker 1: if that makes sense.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's a famous story for my book

400
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Speaker 3: where Elon Musk sells his first company, buys a McLaren

401
00:21:30,964 --> 00:21:33,084
Speaker 3: sports car which is worth like a million bucks or something,

402
00:21:33,124 --> 00:21:35,924
Speaker 3: and then crashes it on the way to the pitch meeting.

403
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Speaker 3: And he doesn't have insurance on this car, right, and

404
00:21:37,964 --> 00:21:40,644
Speaker 3: part because he I think thought he was invincible.

405
00:21:40,684 --> 00:21:42,164
Speaker 2: But also he might say, hey, look I just told this.

406
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Speaker 3: Company for seventeen million dollars or whatever it was, and

407
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Speaker 3: this car is worth one million dollars.

408
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Speaker 2: So like, I am far enough along that.

409
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Speaker 3: Diminishing returns curve right where I don't kind of carry

410
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Speaker 3: their way about a million dollars, Right, I'm not going

411
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Speaker 3: to pay because insurance again ought to be in principle

412
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Speaker 3: negative expected value in a narrow sense if you don't

413
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Speaker 3: account for diminishing returns right, And he's at the other

414
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Speaker 3: aspectrum where it's like, Okay, well who cares, right, I'll

415
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Speaker 3: just wire another million bucks to the McClary dealership buy

416
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Speaker 3: a new car, right. It doesn't really affect me much

417
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Speaker 3: either way, and so like, so I don't think it's

418
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Speaker 3: necessarily I want to be very careful, right, But like

419
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Speaker 3: if having your home destroyed by an earthquake or a

420
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Speaker 3: flood or a fire is something where you'd make out okay, right,

421
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Speaker 3: notwithstanding the psychological damage and the damage to the artifacts

422
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Speaker 3: and the belongings and your pets and whatever else, right,

423
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Speaker 3: and you're safe, well, like, it may not be rational

424
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Speaker 3: to buy insurance, right.

425
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, Well, that's why I try to distinguish

426
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Speaker 1: between the people who can afford to lose it and

427
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Speaker 1: the people who can't. And I'm wondering if as these

428
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Speaker 1: things because we know with risk perception, right, so much

429
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Speaker 1: of it is personal experience and what has typically happened

430
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Speaker 1: to you or two people you know. And I wonder

431
00:22:58,644 --> 00:23:02,044
Speaker 1: as kind of these risks are spreading to communities that

432
00:23:02,524 --> 00:23:05,564
Speaker 1: you know before thought that they were relatively safe, as

433
00:23:05,604 --> 00:23:08,084
Speaker 1: we have so many properties that have been destroyed, so

434
00:23:08,124 --> 00:23:10,084
Speaker 1: many people that have been displaced, if that's going to

435
00:23:10,084 --> 00:23:12,764
Speaker 1: start changing, right, Like, I'm in Las Vegas right now,

436
00:23:12,844 --> 00:23:16,804
Speaker 1: and I've heard multiple conversations around Las Vegas about you know,

437
00:23:17,204 --> 00:23:19,804
Speaker 1: is Las Vegas going to see an even greater inflow

438
00:23:19,964 --> 00:23:23,884
Speaker 1: of Californians than it has in recent years after this? Right?

439
00:23:23,924 --> 00:23:28,284
Speaker 1: Are people going to actually change their kind their risk

440
00:23:28,364 --> 00:23:32,924
Speaker 1: preference is based on the newly available data. There are

441
00:23:32,924 --> 00:23:35,884
Speaker 1: some Hollywood executives who are starting to look at building

442
00:23:35,924 --> 00:23:38,644
Speaker 1: studios here right. There are a lot of people who

443
00:23:38,724 --> 00:23:40,964
Speaker 1: are saying, Okay, you know, this might have been the

444
00:23:40,964 --> 00:23:43,804
Speaker 1: tipping point. And I think that that's also interesting to

445
00:23:43,884 --> 00:23:46,164
Speaker 1: observe and to see what will happen.

446
00:23:48,764 --> 00:24:01,924
Speaker 3: And we'll be right back after this break. One thing

447
00:24:01,964 --> 00:24:04,404
Speaker 3: I think you sometimes see happen is that when you

448
00:24:04,484 --> 00:24:09,804
Speaker 3: have these tumultuous and tragic events, they accelerate processing that

449
00:24:09,884 --> 00:24:12,084
Speaker 3: were already underway.

450
00:24:12,284 --> 00:24:12,444
Speaker 1: Right.

451
00:24:12,484 --> 00:24:15,044
Speaker 3: So one example is that you have the pandemic, actually

452
00:24:15,084 --> 00:24:17,524
Speaker 3: a bunch of these with the pandemic, right, Yeah, the pandemic,

453
00:24:18,604 --> 00:24:21,004
Speaker 3: people stop going to the movies, and then the movies recover,

454
00:24:21,124 --> 00:24:25,684
Speaker 3: but to some substantially lower baseline, right, And people are

455
00:24:25,684 --> 00:24:27,564
Speaker 3: just kind of calculating, well, you know what, you have

456
00:24:27,604 --> 00:24:29,484
Speaker 3: so many ways to watch a movie in your beautiful

457
00:24:29,484 --> 00:24:31,964
Speaker 3: home theater or whatever. Set up that like just a

458
00:24:31,964 --> 00:24:34,004
Speaker 3: special occasion kind of thing now, and like that's kind

459
00:24:34,044 --> 00:24:37,204
Speaker 3: of a permanent change that maybe happened in two years

460
00:24:37,204 --> 00:24:41,164
Speaker 3: when it would have happened in ten years instead. Look,

461
00:24:41,204 --> 00:24:46,444
Speaker 3: California has been losing population. It's gonna lose I think

462
00:24:46,444 --> 00:24:49,244
Speaker 3: it's lost an electoral vote and will lose more, probably

463
00:24:49,284 --> 00:24:54,244
Speaker 3: at the next redistricting process. So in a relative sentence

464
00:24:54,244 --> 00:24:55,924
Speaker 3: relative the rest of the country, it's no longer a

465
00:24:56,044 --> 00:25:00,004
Speaker 3: growth state, exactly. You have movement all over the West

466
00:25:00,084 --> 00:25:04,804
Speaker 3: right to Nevada, to Idaho, to Colorado, also like Texas

467
00:25:04,804 --> 00:25:07,844
Speaker 3: and Florida, which are fairly good substitutes for it.

468
00:25:07,924 --> 00:25:08,124
Speaker 1: Right.

469
00:25:08,284 --> 00:25:10,924
Speaker 3: So yeah, I know, I don't know how many people

470
00:25:10,924 --> 00:25:14,484
Speaker 3: have actually been put out of their home, but you

471
00:25:14,524 --> 00:25:15,084
Speaker 3: can imagine.

472
00:25:15,124 --> 00:25:17,244
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know. When I've been to.

473
00:25:19,924 --> 00:25:24,124
Speaker 3: California recently, I mean it feels like a little bit sleepier, right.

474
00:25:24,124 --> 00:25:28,884
Speaker 3: I don't think New Yorkers have the jealousy of California

475
00:25:28,924 --> 00:25:32,084
Speaker 3: that they kind of once did. Maybe you do, dude,

476
00:25:32,084 --> 00:25:34,324
Speaker 3: have vice versa a little bit. I mean, you do

477
00:25:34,364 --> 00:25:38,124
Speaker 3: have Silicon valley that is still booming, at least as

478
00:25:38,124 --> 00:25:40,604
Speaker 3: an industry, right, I don't know as a town, but like,

479
00:25:41,804 --> 00:25:43,844
Speaker 3: you know, that's still attracting talent from like all around

480
00:25:43,844 --> 00:25:46,484
Speaker 3: the world, and with AI being another potential boom, then

481
00:25:46,564 --> 00:25:50,084
Speaker 3: that seems not to be going away very much. But like,

482
00:25:50,204 --> 00:25:53,804
Speaker 3: but yeah, I don't know, I don't think i'd want

483
00:25:53,804 --> 00:25:54,964
Speaker 3: to live in No.

484
00:25:55,204 --> 00:25:57,244
Speaker 1: It's definitely changed the way that I look about it,

485
00:25:57,524 --> 00:25:59,244
Speaker 1: that I that I look at it, that I think

486
00:25:59,284 --> 00:26:01,444
Speaker 1: about it, because there was part of me that always thought,

487
00:26:01,484 --> 00:26:03,364
Speaker 1: you know, oh, you know, maybe at some point I'll

488
00:26:03,404 --> 00:26:04,844
Speaker 1: live in LA And at this point, I'm like, no

489
00:26:04,924 --> 00:26:08,044
Speaker 1: fucking way, right, Like, you know, why would I do that?

490
00:26:08,284 --> 00:26:12,364
Speaker 1: Certainly would never buy property there because you know, I

491
00:26:12,924 --> 00:26:15,764
Speaker 1: think that the risk reward I don't think it's a

492
00:26:15,884 --> 00:26:18,804
Speaker 1: rational decision right now, And you know a lot of

493
00:26:18,844 --> 00:26:21,004
Speaker 1: people are going to disagree with that, because everyone's risk

494
00:26:21,044 --> 00:26:24,764
Speaker 1: preferences are different and everyone's you know, decision matrix is different,

495
00:26:24,764 --> 00:26:27,524
Speaker 1: and I think that that's that's important. Right, We're right

496
00:26:27,564 --> 00:26:30,404
Speaker 1: now we're talking about personally the calculations. One final thing

497
00:26:30,444 --> 00:26:33,764
Speaker 1: that I wanted to talk about is the actual experience

498
00:26:34,164 --> 00:26:38,364
Speaker 1: of fires, right because there are people who died, and

499
00:26:38,444 --> 00:26:41,724
Speaker 1: some of those deaths couldn't be prevented, but others were

500
00:26:41,804 --> 00:26:45,804
Speaker 1: because of just frankly, absolutely asinine decisions where like you,

501
00:26:45,804 --> 00:26:47,764
Speaker 1: you know, decide that you're going to pick up a

502
00:26:47,804 --> 00:26:51,284
Speaker 1: hose and protect your home from the fire, which is

503
00:26:51,404 --> 00:26:54,724
Speaker 1: endangering you and endangering firefighters. You know, that's it's when

504
00:26:54,724 --> 00:26:57,444
Speaker 1: people say evacuate, you're supposed to evacuate, and I think,

505
00:26:57,924 --> 00:26:59,564
Speaker 1: you know, looking from the side, you say, that is

506
00:26:59,604 --> 00:27:03,124
Speaker 1: really asenine. But for some people, if they've never experienced

507
00:27:03,124 --> 00:27:06,764
Speaker 1: a fire, right, if they've never seen how quickly fires

508
00:27:06,804 --> 00:27:09,044
Speaker 1: can spread, it might have seemed rational. They might have

509
00:27:09,084 --> 00:27:11,644
Speaker 1: been like, oh, the fires a block, like it'll it'll

510
00:27:11,644 --> 00:27:14,324
Speaker 1: be fine, right, I have time. And what you don't

511
00:27:14,404 --> 00:27:17,524
Speaker 1: understand because you don't have kind of the experience, the

512
00:27:17,604 --> 00:27:20,564
Speaker 1: visceral experience of it, and your brain can't comprehend it

513
00:27:20,604 --> 00:27:23,164
Speaker 1: when people are telling you go now, it's just how

514
00:27:23,284 --> 00:27:27,124
Speaker 1: quickly fires can spread, like it is insane. You remember

515
00:27:27,524 --> 00:27:29,324
Speaker 1: last year we had a fire in our backyard in

516
00:27:29,364 --> 00:27:32,284
Speaker 1: New York when there was an explosion in the middle

517
00:27:32,284 --> 00:27:35,284
Speaker 1: of the night of batteries and of the of a

518
00:27:35,404 --> 00:27:38,924
Speaker 1: restaurant and our building almost burned down. But I just

519
00:27:39,044 --> 00:27:41,604
Speaker 1: remember from the moment of the explosion to like the

520
00:27:41,604 --> 00:27:45,724
Speaker 1: fires being taller than our windows, which is a fourth

521
00:27:45,724 --> 00:27:49,884
Speaker 1: floor apartment. It was seconds, right, and I was like,

522
00:27:49,964 --> 00:27:52,604
Speaker 1: holy shit, Like it went from what's going on too?

523
00:27:52,644 --> 00:27:55,884
Speaker 1: We need to get out right now? In under a minute,

524
00:27:56,284 --> 00:27:59,004
Speaker 1: and so I think that and that's not even a wildfire, right,

525
00:27:59,044 --> 00:28:01,724
Speaker 1: That's that was a very different situation. That was an

526
00:28:01,764 --> 00:28:06,644
Speaker 1: electrical fire. But it's I think that people's risk in

527
00:28:06,444 --> 00:28:10,044
Speaker 1: the in the moment, you know, in that hot situation,

528
00:28:10,684 --> 00:28:13,324
Speaker 1: your risk assessment can be off and you can say, oh,

529
00:28:13,364 --> 00:28:15,324
Speaker 1: I have time, I can do this, I want to

530
00:28:15,364 --> 00:28:18,764
Speaker 1: protect my home, and so you just lose perspective that

531
00:28:19,124 --> 00:28:21,684
Speaker 1: actually the only thing that matters is your life and

532
00:28:21,724 --> 00:28:24,524
Speaker 1: the life of firefighters, and so people make just really

533
00:28:24,564 --> 00:28:28,044
Speaker 1: really stupid decisions, which is why I always say, like

534
00:28:28,084 --> 00:28:31,084
Speaker 1: you need to in hot situations. This is like poker too, right,

535
00:28:31,564 --> 00:28:35,244
Speaker 1: and like being on being on tilt and poker, like

536
00:28:35,484 --> 00:28:37,444
Speaker 1: you need to think of it in advance, like how

537
00:28:37,484 --> 00:28:40,004
Speaker 1: am I going to react to this situation, because in

538
00:28:40,044 --> 00:28:42,484
Speaker 1: the moment, you're going to make a bad decision if

539
00:28:42,524 --> 00:28:44,324
Speaker 1: you don't know what you're going to do. If you

540
00:28:44,404 --> 00:28:47,284
Speaker 1: haven't thought it through. You might think that you'll be

541
00:28:47,324 --> 00:28:50,084
Speaker 1: able to think clearly, but you can't write when you're emotional.

542
00:28:50,124 --> 00:28:53,884
Speaker 1: When you're stressed, clear thinking goes out the window unless

543
00:28:53,924 --> 00:28:55,324
Speaker 1: you already have a plan of action.

544
00:28:56,324 --> 00:28:57,644
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it kind of happens fast.

545
00:28:57,804 --> 00:28:59,324
Speaker 3: I was trying to explain to someone the other day

546
00:28:59,324 --> 00:29:01,124
Speaker 3: who has not played much poker about how you know

547
00:29:01,884 --> 00:29:06,364
Speaker 3: if you're playing a five to ten no limic game, right,

548
00:29:06,564 --> 00:29:11,164
Speaker 3: and like and the effect stacks are like five thousand dollars, Well,

549
00:29:11,164 --> 00:29:13,684
Speaker 3: how do you ever get kind of like the whole

550
00:29:13,724 --> 00:29:17,884
Speaker 3: five thousand dollars involved when when they're only fifteen dollars

551
00:29:17,884 --> 00:29:20,964
Speaker 3: in blinds to pick up initially? Right? I maybe it's

552
00:29:21,004 --> 00:29:22,604
Speaker 3: not the best analog, but the point is that, like,

553
00:29:23,364 --> 00:29:27,724
Speaker 3: danger can happen quite quickly, and you don't necessarily have

554
00:29:27,764 --> 00:29:30,004
Speaker 3: a moment to like kind of catch your breath, right.

555
00:29:30,044 --> 00:29:34,084
Speaker 3: I mean there are different cases with with hurricanes, which

556
00:29:34,084 --> 00:29:36,924
Speaker 3: is something that we deal with a little bit more

557
00:29:36,924 --> 00:29:39,404
Speaker 3: on the East Coast, although not in New York that

558
00:29:39,444 --> 00:29:41,924
Speaker 3: we wouldn't like Florida or something like that, Like there you.

559
00:29:41,844 --> 00:29:42,684
Speaker 2: Do have some.

560
00:29:44,204 --> 00:29:47,324
Speaker 3: Advanced warning, right, It's not like the hurricanes come exactly

561
00:29:48,364 --> 00:29:50,204
Speaker 3: out of nowhere. But you know, but you have the

562
00:29:50,324 --> 00:29:52,884
Speaker 3: risks that, like, you know, if you evacuate people too

563
00:29:52,924 --> 00:29:55,244
Speaker 3: early in New Orleans with Hurricane ktwna hit. There have

564
00:29:55,244 --> 00:29:58,084
Speaker 3: been kind of a long history of New Orleans.

565
00:29:59,204 --> 00:30:01,644
Speaker 2: Having good luck with storms.

566
00:30:01,084 --> 00:30:05,604
Speaker 3: That were bad but not as bad as feared or forecasted.

567
00:30:05,724 --> 00:30:07,644
Speaker 3: Right there, I think, you know, I think the literature.

568
00:30:07,644 --> 00:30:10,004
Speaker 3: I wrote this in the first book of mine more

569
00:30:09,964 --> 00:30:11,884
Speaker 3: than ten years ago. I think the literature is pretty

570
00:30:11,884 --> 00:30:17,124
Speaker 3: consistent that there are real consequences to false alarms. Yeah,

571
00:30:17,124 --> 00:30:20,044
Speaker 3: any type of natural disaster, and people really feel invincible

572
00:30:20,084 --> 00:30:21,764
Speaker 3: if like, oh, last time he said it's gonna be.

573
00:30:21,644 --> 00:30:23,964
Speaker 2: Bad, yeah, and it wasn't, right.

574
00:30:23,964 --> 00:30:27,764
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that it creates this it's kind of,

575
00:30:27,884 --> 00:30:29,844
Speaker 1: you know, coming full circle to what we were talking about.

576
00:30:29,844 --> 00:30:33,444
Speaker 1: It creates this perverse incentive where you personally feel more

577
00:30:33,444 --> 00:30:36,524
Speaker 1: invulnerable than you should because you've gotten away with it

578
00:30:36,564 --> 00:30:38,924
Speaker 1: in the past, Right, like California, while my house hasn't

579
00:30:38,964 --> 00:30:42,164
Speaker 1: burned yet, Right, You've told me to evacuate before and

580
00:30:42,244 --> 00:30:45,364
Speaker 1: everything was fine, So I'm just going to be comfortable

581
00:30:45,404 --> 00:30:47,604
Speaker 1: and it's all going to be fine, and once again

582
00:30:47,684 --> 00:30:52,124
Speaker 1: head in the sand, because that's just that's easier, right,

583
00:30:52,204 --> 00:30:55,604
Speaker 1: that's the path of least resistance, and you know it's

584
00:30:55,684 --> 00:30:58,564
Speaker 1: scary to just leave and to do it quickly. Do

585
00:30:58,604 --> 00:31:00,244
Speaker 1: you have a Do you have a go bag Nate

586
00:31:00,324 --> 00:31:02,404
Speaker 1: by the way or no? No?

587
00:31:03,364 --> 00:31:07,524
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I maybe we should.

588
00:31:08,124 --> 00:31:11,844
Speaker 1: I think I think we should. Yeah we yeah, we

589
00:31:11,884 --> 00:31:15,124
Speaker 1: have we have go bags. And it's something that you know,

590
00:31:15,244 --> 00:31:17,804
Speaker 1: I thought through, like, you know, because in New York

591
00:31:17,844 --> 00:31:21,284
Speaker 1: there have been situations so like obviously nine to eleven

592
00:31:21,964 --> 00:31:24,724
Speaker 1: where you think about, like, you know, what happens if

593
00:31:24,844 --> 00:31:26,324
Speaker 1: I need to get out of here, what happens if

594
00:31:26,364 --> 00:31:28,564
Speaker 1: I need to get out of here on foot Hurricane Sandy,

595
00:31:29,244 --> 00:31:32,244
Speaker 1: you know, we lost powered, had no cell phone reception.

596
00:31:32,724 --> 00:31:36,644
Speaker 1: So after after those experiences, I have thought a lot

597
00:31:36,644 --> 00:31:38,644
Speaker 1: about you know, go bags and the fact that this

598
00:31:38,804 --> 00:31:40,604
Speaker 1: is something that you just need to be able to

599
00:31:40,644 --> 00:31:43,324
Speaker 1: grab and it should be light, right, there shouldn't be

600
00:31:43,364 --> 00:31:48,204
Speaker 1: too much in it. Mine is like passport, copies of documents. Cash.

601
00:31:48,324 --> 00:31:50,884
Speaker 1: It's really important to have cash, even though we're turning

602
00:31:50,884 --> 00:31:53,444
Speaker 1: towards the cashless world. But if you know, if there's

603
00:31:53,444 --> 00:31:56,244
Speaker 1: no connectivity, if you can't use Apple pay, if you know,

604
00:31:56,284 --> 00:31:59,084
Speaker 1: if if shit goes bad, like cash is actually an

605
00:31:59,084 --> 00:32:05,084
Speaker 1: important thing to have. Laptop, right. I when when my

606
00:32:05,164 --> 00:32:08,964
Speaker 1: apartment you know, was threatened by fire last year, I

607
00:32:09,004 --> 00:32:11,764
Speaker 1: grabbed my notebook because I write all my first drafts

608
00:32:11,764 --> 00:32:15,884
Speaker 1: by hand. So and I don't you know if that's lost,

609
00:32:15,964 --> 00:32:18,764
Speaker 1: like you know, huge chunks of my next book are lost,

610
00:32:18,764 --> 00:32:22,124
Speaker 1: So I grab that, you know, laptop, passport, and you're

611
00:32:22,124 --> 00:32:25,124
Speaker 1: out of their cell phone. But I think that it's

612
00:32:25,164 --> 00:32:27,204
Speaker 1: important to just figure out what are those things that

613
00:32:27,244 --> 00:32:30,124
Speaker 1: you need immediately, and also the things that you can't replace, right,

614
00:32:30,164 --> 00:32:33,924
Speaker 1: Like if you have photographs, I my grandmother's letters to

615
00:32:33,964 --> 00:32:37,884
Speaker 1: her sister, which are you know, handwritten. It's their correspondence

616
00:32:37,924 --> 00:32:40,324
Speaker 1: and it's you know, the only thing I have left

617
00:32:40,324 --> 00:32:42,404
Speaker 1: of her. So like I would grab that even though

618
00:32:42,444 --> 00:32:45,764
Speaker 1: it weighs a ton, right, it's not like a it's

619
00:32:45,804 --> 00:32:48,724
Speaker 1: not a life changing thing. But to me, it's something

620
00:32:48,764 --> 00:32:51,244
Speaker 1: that like I could never replace, and that's really really important.

621
00:32:51,244 --> 00:32:53,044
Speaker 1: So I think that you have to there's like a

622
00:32:53,124 --> 00:32:56,284
Speaker 1: balance of obviously water some bars, but you need to

623
00:32:56,324 --> 00:32:58,604
Speaker 1: replace that stuff, right, Like some stuff goes bad in

624
00:32:58,644 --> 00:33:01,364
Speaker 1: your go bag, you need to replace it constantly so

625
00:33:01,404 --> 00:33:03,444
Speaker 1: that it stays fresh. And so it's a little bit

626
00:33:03,484 --> 00:33:04,884
Speaker 1: of a pain in the ass, but once you have it,

627
00:33:04,884 --> 00:33:05,604
Speaker 1: it's pretty easy.

628
00:33:06,924 --> 00:33:08,924
Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess, I guess. I guess our main risk

629
00:33:08,964 --> 00:33:12,284
Speaker 3: in New York is probably a terrorist attack. I mean

630
00:33:12,284 --> 00:33:16,804
Speaker 3: because with the hurricane you have some warning time, right,

631
00:33:16,844 --> 00:33:19,124
Speaker 3: I mean, you can get severe summer weather in New York.

632
00:33:19,164 --> 00:33:22,604
Speaker 3: The winds are but yeah, the main risk, for being

633
00:33:22,604 --> 00:33:25,844
Speaker 3: honest is like some terror attack. And the fact that

634
00:33:25,884 --> 00:33:29,524
Speaker 3: I live in Manhattan, right, you're kind of on kind

635
00:33:29,524 --> 00:33:31,724
Speaker 3: of on an island. Right, there's only so many physical

636
00:33:31,764 --> 00:33:35,604
Speaker 3: ways to like connect with the rest of the United States, right,

637
00:33:36,564 --> 00:33:38,884
Speaker 3: and so and so that gets a little bit frightening.

638
00:33:38,524 --> 00:33:39,004
Speaker 2: I suppose.

639
00:33:39,324 --> 00:33:41,444
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, one of my friends who lives in Tribeca,

640
00:33:41,564 --> 00:33:46,364
Speaker 1: actually after Sandy, they ended up buying and you know,

641
00:33:46,404 --> 00:33:50,284
Speaker 1: one of those like inflatable boats so that they could, okay,

642
00:33:50,804 --> 00:33:53,124
Speaker 1: because also thinking about terrorist attacks, like what happens if

643
00:33:53,164 --> 00:33:56,204
Speaker 1: all the roads are closed, So they bought a little

644
00:33:56,244 --> 00:33:58,484
Speaker 1: inflatable raft that they can take to the Hudson River

645
00:33:58,524 --> 00:34:01,004
Speaker 1: and get out of there. And at first I laughed

646
00:34:01,004 --> 00:34:02,604
Speaker 1: and that I was like, huh, should we get one

647
00:34:02,604 --> 00:34:06,004
Speaker 1: of those? Right? Like how far do you want to

648
00:34:06,044 --> 00:34:09,364
Speaker 1: take this? And obviously there's like a you know, there's

649
00:34:09,524 --> 00:34:12,324
Speaker 1: a full spectrum from no go bag whatsoever. I'm totally

650
00:34:12,364 --> 00:34:15,444
Speaker 1: fine to prepper right, and I've got a bunker. I'm

651
00:34:15,484 --> 00:34:17,164
Speaker 1: that I paid for that I'm going to go to

652
00:34:17,804 --> 00:34:20,564
Speaker 1: and like I know exactly, you know, off grid what

653
00:34:20,604 --> 00:34:23,284
Speaker 1: I'm going to do. So there's there's a whole lot

654
00:34:23,284 --> 00:34:26,084
Speaker 1: of room in between. But I think that doing the

655
00:34:26,124 --> 00:34:29,324
Speaker 1: bare minimum is a good thing to do. It's just

656
00:34:29,564 --> 00:34:32,324
Speaker 1: that to me is like where I where I come

657
00:34:32,364 --> 00:34:34,684
Speaker 1: out rationally. I did not end up buying an inflatable boat,

658
00:34:34,684 --> 00:34:37,884
Speaker 1: by the way.

659
00:34:36,404 --> 00:34:40,604
Speaker 3: You didn't, Okay, now I do a little nitty I

660
00:34:40,644 --> 00:34:41,724
Speaker 3: don't know, I don't know.

661
00:34:44,044 --> 00:34:46,284
Speaker 1: Yeah, so so I do not have an inflatable boat.

662
00:34:46,324 --> 00:34:50,084
Speaker 1: By the way, that friend moved from Tribeca to La

663
00:34:50,204 --> 00:34:52,964
Speaker 1: and just and had to evacuate was in one of

664
00:34:52,964 --> 00:34:57,364
Speaker 1: the evacuation zones, so sore that the inflatable boat is

665
00:34:57,364 --> 00:34:59,764
Speaker 1: not very helpful over there. Yeah. So I think that

666
00:34:59,804 --> 00:35:02,244
Speaker 1: these are all these are all important decisions something you

667
00:35:02,284 --> 00:35:04,404
Speaker 1: have to think through for yourself. But it's something you

668
00:35:04,564 --> 00:35:07,124
Speaker 1: do have to think through. I just want to like

669
00:35:07,164 --> 00:35:09,964
Speaker 1: make one last push. People do like to nor things

670
00:35:10,004 --> 00:35:14,044
Speaker 1: that are scary, that are inconvenient, that forces them to

671
00:35:14,084 --> 00:35:19,084
Speaker 1: make difficult decisions. Don't do that, right, and instead, like

672
00:35:19,724 --> 00:35:23,444
Speaker 1: actually sit down and do a rational calculus, look at

673
00:35:23,444 --> 00:35:26,444
Speaker 1: the numbers, look at the risk, and try to figure

674
00:35:26,484 --> 00:35:28,404
Speaker 1: out if it's worth it or not.

675
00:35:28,844 --> 00:35:31,284
Speaker 3: Right. Yeah, you don't have to make a commitment, right.

676
00:35:31,324 --> 00:35:33,124
Speaker 3: You can't say this is silly, the risk is low

677
00:35:33,244 --> 00:35:35,484
Speaker 3: enough and we're probably fucked anyway or whatever.

678
00:35:35,604 --> 00:35:38,004
Speaker 2: Right. You can do that calculation and then decide not

679
00:35:38,084 --> 00:35:38,484
Speaker 2: to write.

680
00:35:38,964 --> 00:35:43,044
Speaker 1: Yeah, but at least do the calculation. Please. So on

681
00:35:43,124 --> 00:35:44,924
Speaker 1: that note, let's take a break, and then let's take

682
00:35:44,924 --> 00:36:02,164
Speaker 1: oh listener question. So we got a listener question from

683
00:36:02,244 --> 00:36:06,444
Speaker 1: JM and Nate. This listener question is directly about your work.

684
00:36:06,724 --> 00:36:11,604
Speaker 2: Right, yeah, So Elon must if Ramaswami. Is that how

685
00:36:11,644 --> 00:36:12,004
Speaker 2: you say it?

686
00:36:12,084 --> 00:36:12,204
Speaker 1: Right?

687
00:36:12,324 --> 00:36:14,764
Speaker 2: Yeah?

688
00:36:14,924 --> 00:36:19,044
Speaker 3: Our meeting with top government officials and they also are

689
00:36:19,284 --> 00:36:23,844
Speaker 3: trying to kind of formulate this quasi official agency called DOGE.

690
00:36:23,964 --> 00:36:27,884
Speaker 3: It's a backronym for Department of Governmental Efficiency and also

691
00:36:28,004 --> 00:36:33,364
Speaker 3: a meme coin and a meme coin Elon's favorite meme coin,

692
00:36:33,524 --> 00:36:33,844
Speaker 3: I think.

693
00:36:34,004 --> 00:36:37,164
Speaker 2: Yeah, And the question is how do you integrate the

694
00:36:37,284 --> 00:36:39,044
Speaker 2: river and the village.

695
00:36:39,084 --> 00:36:41,924
Speaker 3: So, if you have not read on the Edge the

696
00:36:42,004 --> 00:36:44,444
Speaker 3: Art of risking, everything published in twenty twenty four.

697
00:36:44,444 --> 00:36:45,844
Speaker 2: But these are my.

698
00:36:45,924 --> 00:36:49,684
Speaker 3: Terms where the the village is the you know East

699
00:36:49,764 --> 00:36:55,964
Speaker 3: Coast establishment risk averse government, at least when Biden's in office.

700
00:36:55,724 --> 00:36:59,004
Speaker 2: Right, government and academia and media.

701
00:36:59,124 --> 00:37:02,364
Speaker 3: Right, these people who were super concerned about Cohen risk

702
00:37:02,404 --> 00:37:04,964
Speaker 3: and the types of risk, and they're you know, they're

703
00:37:05,004 --> 00:37:06,964
Speaker 3: the ones who are doing more speech policing and things

704
00:37:07,044 --> 00:37:08,524
Speaker 3: like that, right, And I mean they're kind of become

705
00:37:08,604 --> 00:37:13,004
Speaker 3: like the liberal establishment, the expert class, right, whereas the

706
00:37:13,124 --> 00:37:17,724
Speaker 3: River are the risk taking degenerate types and finance and

707
00:37:17,764 --> 00:37:20,284
Speaker 3: Silicon Valley as well as a poker world and the

708
00:37:20,404 --> 00:37:24,364
Speaker 3: in the gaming quote unquote world more general. But parts

709
00:37:24,364 --> 00:37:28,444
Speaker 3: of the River have had an increase in their political power.

710
00:37:29,044 --> 00:37:34,524
Speaker 1: So typically you know, government seems more villagy, right, you know,

711
00:37:34,684 --> 00:37:40,844
Speaker 1: old establishment, et cetera. But people like Musk and Ramaswami

712
00:37:40,964 --> 00:37:44,364
Speaker 1: are more from the River and are trying to inject

713
00:37:44,404 --> 00:37:47,564
Speaker 1: some of those ideas into kind of old Washington. So

714
00:37:47,684 --> 00:37:50,724
Speaker 1: how how does that play out? How do we integrate

715
00:37:50,764 --> 00:37:52,884
Speaker 1: the two together? Right? How do you how do you

716
00:37:52,964 --> 00:37:56,644
Speaker 1: make the two mesh and how do you actually make

717
00:37:56,684 --> 00:38:01,244
Speaker 1: it a productive thing as opposed to you know, two

718
00:38:01,364 --> 00:38:05,964
Speaker 1: sides entrenching against each other and and polarizing even further,

719
00:38:06,284 --> 00:38:09,044
Speaker 1: which is obviously one one possible outcome.

720
00:38:10,444 --> 00:38:14,444
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you know, look, there's long been a

721
00:38:14,444 --> 00:38:17,484
Speaker 3: conservative critique that there is a lot of waste, fraud

722
00:38:17,844 --> 00:38:21,204
Speaker 3: and abuse that taxpays are on the hook for, which

723
00:38:21,244 --> 00:38:26,804
Speaker 3: I'm relatively sympathetic toward. So you know, I guess one

724
00:38:26,804 --> 00:38:27,684
Speaker 3: critique I would have.

725
00:38:28,964 --> 00:38:34,324
Speaker 2: And you see it in like this La wildfire stuff, right,

726
00:38:34,364 --> 00:38:34,844
Speaker 2: where like.

727
00:38:36,524 --> 00:38:40,804
Speaker 3: You know, they'll make five accusations about how it's all

728
00:38:40,844 --> 00:38:43,804
Speaker 3: the liberals fault. Right, I'm no fan of Gavin Newsom

729
00:38:43,924 --> 00:38:46,364
Speaker 3: or governance of California in general.

730
00:38:46,444 --> 00:38:47,564
Speaker 2: Right, But then you actually kind of.

731
00:38:47,524 --> 00:38:51,164
Speaker 3: Like check these and like maybe one of the five

732
00:38:51,284 --> 00:38:55,204
Speaker 3: is basically true and one of the five is half true,

733
00:38:55,204 --> 00:38:58,164
Speaker 3: and the other three and a half are just deranged.

734
00:38:58,244 --> 00:38:58,364
Speaker 2: Right.

735
00:38:58,404 --> 00:39:00,844
Speaker 3: There's a big deal about, like, you know, the LA

736
00:39:01,204 --> 00:39:03,604
Speaker 3: fire chief is like a lesbian and somehow this is

737
00:39:03,604 --> 00:39:09,604
Speaker 3: like a DEEI thing somehow for reasons I don't entirely understand. Right,

738
00:39:09,644 --> 00:39:13,244
Speaker 3: And you hear it claims about like where water takes.

739
00:39:13,244 --> 00:39:15,804
Speaker 3: I guess there is one water take in Pacific Palisades

740
00:39:15,844 --> 00:39:19,204
Speaker 3: that was up for repair or that seems not good.

741
00:39:19,404 --> 00:39:22,124
Speaker 3: It seems like you probably want the repair time, you know,

742
00:39:22,364 --> 00:39:24,364
Speaker 3: to be quicker than Oh, I'll get around to it

743
00:39:24,404 --> 00:39:24,964
Speaker 3: at some point.

744
00:39:25,844 --> 00:39:27,084
Speaker 2: But if you can go with scrutinize his.

745
00:39:27,044 --> 00:39:29,084
Speaker 3: Claims, you know, Noah Smith, the writer of the blogger,

746
00:39:29,804 --> 00:39:31,524
Speaker 3: has a good rundown. And again there are things, there

747
00:39:31,564 --> 00:39:35,084
Speaker 3: are elements of it that have some degree kind of truth,

748
00:39:35,124 --> 00:39:39,324
Speaker 3: but like it's not very precise, right, And you know,

749
00:39:39,444 --> 00:39:42,964
Speaker 3: there is this like duality in the river the way

750
00:39:42,964 --> 00:39:44,524
Speaker 3: I can see it, where on the one hand, the

751
00:39:44,604 --> 00:39:47,244
Speaker 3: river is supposed to be kind of like the moneyballization

752
00:39:48,284 --> 00:39:50,844
Speaker 3: of everything, where it's calculating and.

753
00:39:52,364 --> 00:39:53,364
Speaker 2: Precise, right.

754
00:39:53,604 --> 00:39:56,604
Speaker 3: On the other hand, there is this like degenerate gambler

755
00:39:56,724 --> 00:39:59,124
Speaker 3: side Elin in particular as someone who I mean, look

756
00:39:59,164 --> 00:40:01,124
Speaker 3: you got an added to him. He's we found it

757
00:40:01,164 --> 00:40:04,524
Speaker 3: all these amazing businesses. He's clearly doing something right, including

758
00:40:04,564 --> 00:40:07,204
Speaker 3: by the way, being a co founder of open Ai.

759
00:40:08,764 --> 00:40:10,404
Speaker 3: But not a guy you'd say has like a lot

760
00:40:10,444 --> 00:40:16,324
Speaker 3: of precision, really right, and like and like the giddiness

761
00:40:16,404 --> 00:40:18,604
Speaker 3: of someone who's on a winning streak. Right, I mean,

762
00:40:18,644 --> 00:40:20,844
Speaker 3: they not only have one in all sorts of ways

763
00:40:20,844 --> 00:40:23,284
Speaker 3: in terms of becoming wealthier and wealthier, right, but also

764
00:40:23,404 --> 00:40:25,764
Speaker 3: now this faction of the River. Again, I think the

765
00:40:25,964 --> 00:40:30,484
Speaker 3: average person the river probably is a moderate Democrat. But

766
00:40:30,564 --> 00:40:32,884
Speaker 3: this faction, I just said, this kind of kind of

767
00:40:32,884 --> 00:40:37,244
Speaker 3: gigantic wind. Clearly, you know, they were backing Trump, and

768
00:40:37,284 --> 00:40:39,284
Speaker 3: clearly they're going to have I think a fair amount

769
00:40:39,364 --> 00:40:45,124
Speaker 3: of influence on Trump. It's already also also bolstered Elon's

770
00:40:45,164 --> 00:40:48,484
Speaker 3: net worth in certain ways, right, even without kind of

771
00:40:48,884 --> 00:40:53,924
Speaker 3: electing anything untoward. Right, His business are all subject to regulation,

772
00:40:54,004 --> 00:40:55,844
Speaker 3: and if you have a more friendly regulator at office,

773
00:40:55,924 --> 00:40:57,764
Speaker 3: is probably worth something to you.

774
00:40:58,364 --> 00:41:01,244
Speaker 2: So it's it's it's been disappointing to see this side

775
00:41:01,244 --> 00:41:01,804
Speaker 2: of the river.

776
00:41:03,284 --> 00:41:06,364
Speaker 3: Become become the side that one I guess, but you know,

777
00:41:06,564 --> 00:41:08,844
Speaker 3: but look, I mean it's you know, one mester of

778
00:41:08,844 --> 00:41:11,164
Speaker 3: the book is like these people are actually not so

779
00:41:12,284 --> 00:41:14,644
Speaker 3: rational necessarily, right.

780
00:41:14,844 --> 00:41:18,644
Speaker 1: Yeah, Now that the definitely is is a message, and

781
00:41:18,684 --> 00:41:22,164
Speaker 1: I think that from a psychological standpoint, you also have

782
00:41:22,284 --> 00:41:25,044
Speaker 1: hit on something that is really important to remember as

783
00:41:25,084 --> 00:41:29,964
Speaker 1: we see kind of these Ribeians making their move on Washington,

784
00:41:30,324 --> 00:41:32,924
Speaker 1: which is there is a hubris that comes from being

785
00:41:32,964 --> 00:41:37,124
Speaker 1: on a winning streak, right, and and that definitely makes

786
00:41:37,164 --> 00:41:40,564
Speaker 1: you irrational, Like that irrational exuberance, right, and a lot

787
00:41:40,564 --> 00:41:44,084
Speaker 1: of bad shit happens from that. And to bring it

788
00:41:44,484 --> 00:41:47,244
Speaker 1: back down to kind of the poker level, right, think

789
00:41:47,244 --> 00:41:49,764
Speaker 1: about poker players who are on a hot streak, right,

790
00:41:49,804 --> 00:41:53,524
Speaker 1: who are running well, who are son running in poker terms,

791
00:41:53,924 --> 00:41:56,964
Speaker 1: and then you know, they think they can't lose. I'm

792
00:41:57,004 --> 00:41:58,884
Speaker 1: not gonna I'm not going to mention the name of

793
00:41:58,924 --> 00:42:02,204
Speaker 1: this player, but there was a player who went on

794
00:42:02,444 --> 00:42:06,084
Speaker 1: this incredible streak a number of years ago and like

795
00:42:06,244 --> 00:42:09,284
Speaker 1: just would would win everything and ended up winning, you know,

796
00:42:10,084 --> 00:42:12,604
Speaker 1: shit ton of money and just like couldn't lose, and

797
00:42:12,604 --> 00:42:13,804
Speaker 1: people are like, oh my god, this is like the

798
00:42:13,844 --> 00:42:16,124
Speaker 1: best player in the world. And then the sun run

799
00:42:16,284 --> 00:42:21,284
Speaker 1: ended and I remember one specific stream this was televised

800
00:42:21,684 --> 00:42:26,284
Speaker 1: where this player lost, not even a flip, like it

801
00:42:26,364 --> 00:42:31,404
Speaker 1: was just like lost and all in and was behind

802
00:42:31,444 --> 00:42:34,284
Speaker 1: and stayed behind, didn't hit the miracle card, had always

803
00:42:34,324 --> 00:42:36,644
Speaker 1: hit the miracle card in the past, and was you know,

804
00:42:36,804 --> 00:42:39,044
Speaker 1: just expecting it to happen and it didn't and this

805
00:42:39,164 --> 00:42:42,804
Speaker 1: was a huge hand and he was out of the tournament.

806
00:42:43,404 --> 00:42:45,564
Speaker 1: I could say it was a man, right, because we

807
00:42:45,684 --> 00:42:49,604
Speaker 1: know that ninety seven to ninety percent. I don't want

808
00:42:49,644 --> 00:42:51,284
Speaker 1: to I don't want to put them on blast right now,

809
00:42:51,564 --> 00:42:53,404
Speaker 1: but this is one of the this is one of them.

810
00:42:53,444 --> 00:42:55,764
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe another time. This was one of like it

811
00:42:55,804 --> 00:42:59,804
Speaker 1: was an epic meltdown. This person like got up from

812
00:42:59,804 --> 00:43:03,404
Speaker 1: the table and threw the chips, like just threw the

813
00:43:03,484 --> 00:43:05,284
Speaker 1: chips at the other player and out the dealer and

814
00:43:05,324 --> 00:43:09,924
Speaker 1: stormed off, And I was like, holy shit, Like this

815
00:43:10,164 --> 00:43:14,004
Speaker 1: is someone who is not used to losing. And when

816
00:43:14,044 --> 00:43:15,604
Speaker 1: you when you are at a poker table, like you

817
00:43:15,644 --> 00:43:18,524
Speaker 1: can watch the stream and laugh and be like haha, right,

818
00:43:18,644 --> 00:43:21,484
Speaker 1: sun run over, like and you do not your mental

819
00:43:21,484 --> 00:43:23,404
Speaker 1: game because this person also pride in themselves on good

820
00:43:23,404 --> 00:43:25,604
Speaker 1: mental game, Like mental game non existent, like you've just

821
00:43:25,604 --> 00:43:28,884
Speaker 1: been winning. But when you when that happens now, like

822
00:43:28,964 --> 00:43:31,684
Speaker 1: let's go back when when that happens in Washington, the

823
00:43:31,724 --> 00:43:34,284
Speaker 1: stakes are much higher than you know, throwing chips at

824
00:43:34,284 --> 00:43:35,884
Speaker 1: a player, which, by the way, if you play poker,

825
00:43:36,404 --> 00:43:38,644
Speaker 1: big poker, no, no, you never throw your chips right,

826
00:43:38,724 --> 00:43:41,684
Speaker 1: Like that is a that is a big etiquette no. No,

827
00:43:41,884 --> 00:43:45,004
Speaker 1: Like chips should never fall off the table, like do

828
00:43:45,164 --> 00:43:48,044
Speaker 1: not do things with a lot of force, like just

829
00:43:48,084 --> 00:43:50,604
Speaker 1: be be nice about it. Splashing the pot not good.

830
00:43:51,564 --> 00:43:56,964
Speaker 1: So Yeah, when that happens in Washington, consequences are much

831
00:43:57,684 --> 00:44:00,964
Speaker 1: more dire and it's no longer quite as amusing. So

832
00:44:01,124 --> 00:44:04,084
Speaker 1: when I always say, like, beware, people who've been on

833
00:44:04,164 --> 00:44:07,284
Speaker 1: huge winning streaks, right, their decision making is going to

834
00:44:07,404 --> 00:44:08,964
Speaker 1: be colored by.

835
00:44:08,844 --> 00:44:13,444
Speaker 3: That American or euro could you say that much hero? Okay,

836
00:44:14,004 --> 00:44:17,444
Speaker 3: the euro the heroes, I don't know, Eroes kind of

837
00:44:17,444 --> 00:44:19,564
Speaker 3: believe in uh in luck.

838
00:44:19,564 --> 00:44:19,684
Speaker 1: Guy.

839
00:44:19,684 --> 00:44:20,684
Speaker 2: They're a little superstitious.

840
00:44:20,724 --> 00:44:26,004
Speaker 1: I think, right, there's a rational superstition. I think in

841
00:44:26,164 --> 00:44:28,924
Speaker 1: a lot of Riverians, right, a lot. And I don't

842
00:44:28,924 --> 00:44:30,804
Speaker 1: even know. I don't know about Musk, like, I don't

843
00:44:30,844 --> 00:44:33,324
Speaker 1: know if he has irrational superstitions. But a lot of

844
00:44:33,364 --> 00:44:35,844
Speaker 1: people who are Riverians and who are kind of the

845
00:44:35,844 --> 00:44:38,164
Speaker 1: these gambling types and who do you think about risk,

846
00:44:38,244 --> 00:44:41,724
Speaker 1: they also are superstitious. And I just find it amusing

847
00:44:41,964 --> 00:44:45,644
Speaker 1: and also, you know, sometimes disappointing. And some people are

848
00:44:45,644 --> 00:44:47,964
Speaker 1: aware of it, like I Caxton, you know, in the

849
00:44:48,004 --> 00:44:50,564
Speaker 1: Biggest Bluff, I have a section where I talked to

850
00:44:50,644 --> 00:44:53,644
Speaker 1: Ike about superstition and he fully owned it and he's like, yeah,

851
00:44:53,644 --> 00:44:56,324
Speaker 1: I know this is totally irrational, but like I'm gonna

852
00:44:56,364 --> 00:44:59,524
Speaker 1: do it anyway, right, I'm going to have my like rituals,

853
00:44:59,524 --> 00:45:02,124
Speaker 1: et cetera. But then there are other people who are like, no,

854
00:45:02,164 --> 00:45:05,004
Speaker 1: I'm not superstitious at all. Oh, yes, but this is

855
00:45:05,044 --> 00:45:06,724
Speaker 1: the same shirt I was wearing from day one of

856
00:45:06,804 --> 00:45:10,084
Speaker 1: the tournament because you know, I've been well in it.

857
00:45:10,124 --> 00:45:13,244
Speaker 1: But no, I'm not superstitious at all. But I think

858
00:45:13,284 --> 00:45:16,844
Speaker 1: I think that that's perspective that it can't hurt, right, Like,

859
00:45:17,204 --> 00:45:20,564
Speaker 1: you know, it's probably it's not. It's it's bullshit, but like,

860
00:45:20,724 --> 00:45:22,844
Speaker 1: can it really hurt? And my argument is yes, it

861
00:45:22,884 --> 00:45:26,244
Speaker 1: can hurt because when your rituals, when your superstitions are disrupted,

862
00:45:26,244 --> 00:45:29,204
Speaker 1: it can actually really fuck with your mental equilibrium. Right,

863
00:45:29,324 --> 00:45:31,564
Speaker 1: Like what happens if that lucky shirt that you've been

864
00:45:31,604 --> 00:45:34,804
Speaker 1: wearing every single day suddenly you can't find it, or

865
00:45:35,044 --> 00:45:37,564
Speaker 1: like you know that if you're staying in a hotel,

866
00:45:37,644 --> 00:45:41,244
Speaker 1: like you know, got lost somewhere, housekeeping took it, like

867
00:45:41,284 --> 00:45:43,764
Speaker 1: and then suddenly like you have a day four restart

868
00:45:43,844 --> 00:45:46,684
Speaker 1: day five, you're deep and like you're thrown off by this.

869
00:45:46,964 --> 00:45:50,364
Speaker 1: And I wrote about this, but it's happened to Olympic athletes.

870
00:45:50,364 --> 00:45:52,764
Speaker 1: It's like there was one Olympic athlete who lost her

871
00:45:52,844 --> 00:45:55,484
Speaker 1: lucky necklace right before a run and like just completely

872
00:45:55,524 --> 00:45:57,844
Speaker 1: fucked up her run right like, So, yes, there is

873
00:45:57,884 --> 00:46:01,524
Speaker 1: a downside to this. It can hurt because when you're

874
00:46:01,964 --> 00:46:03,764
Speaker 1: kind of reliant on that it can take, it can

875
00:46:03,804 --> 00:46:06,684
Speaker 1: be really difficult to kind of to move past it.

876
00:46:07,524 --> 00:46:09,284
Speaker 1: But I think this is a This is a good

877
00:46:09,284 --> 00:46:11,364
Speaker 1: way to wrap up the show because in some ways,

878
00:46:11,404 --> 00:46:13,604
Speaker 1: like there have been some themes that have gone through

879
00:46:13,644 --> 00:46:16,324
Speaker 1: all all of our segments today, from fires to now.

880
00:46:16,364 --> 00:46:19,524
Speaker 1: One of them is kind of the irrational exuberance and

881
00:46:19,604 --> 00:46:23,164
Speaker 1: people people not making correct decisions because they're a little

882
00:46:23,204 --> 00:46:28,084
Speaker 1: bit overconfident and misperceived risk, whether it's risk of fire.

883
00:46:28,124 --> 00:46:31,004
Speaker 3: Or we're a quarter of the way now through the

884
00:46:31,004 --> 00:46:34,044
Speaker 3: twenty first century. I'm getting that right, Yeah, we are,

885
00:46:34,324 --> 00:46:35,964
Speaker 3: And irrational exuberance is still a thing.

886
00:46:35,964 --> 00:46:37,484
Speaker 2: I'm sorry to report.

887
00:46:37,324 --> 00:46:39,724
Speaker 1: It absolutely is, and I think it's here to stay.

888
00:46:40,084 --> 00:46:43,524
Speaker 1: And on that note, Nate gets some rest. Let's get

889
00:46:43,564 --> 00:46:46,564
Speaker 1: over your jet lag so that you're fully awake, and

890
00:46:47,364 --> 00:46:50,164
Speaker 1: we will see you all next week, where Nate will

891
00:46:50,204 --> 00:46:53,724
Speaker 1: no longer be in a time zone that he doesn't

892
00:46:53,724 --> 00:46:55,764
Speaker 1: even know what time it is anymore, So we'll see

893
00:46:55,804 --> 00:47:08,444
Speaker 1: We'll see you next week. Let us know what you

894
00:47:08,444 --> 00:47:11,444
Speaker 1: think of the show. Reach out to us at Risky

895
00:47:11,484 --> 00:47:19,764
Speaker 1: Business at pushkin dot Fm. Risky Business is hosted by

896
00:47:19,804 --> 00:47:21,444
Speaker 1: me Maria Kondakova.

897
00:47:21,244 --> 00:47:22,604
Speaker 2: And byby Nate Silver.

898
00:47:23,324 --> 00:47:26,844
Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

899
00:47:27,364 --> 00:47:30,924
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabel Carter. Our associate producer

900
00:47:31,004 --> 00:47:34,524
Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

901
00:47:34,924 --> 00:47:37,084
Speaker 3: If you like the show, please rate and review us

902
00:47:37,084 --> 00:47:39,084
Speaker 3: so all the people can find us too. And if

903
00:47:39,084 --> 00:47:41,324
Speaker 3: you want to listen to an AD free version, sign

904
00:47:41,444 --> 00:47:44,164
Speaker 3: up for Pushkin Plus. For six, ten and nine a month,

905
00:47:44,164 --> 00:47:47,004
Speaker 3: you had access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.