1 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Gerdusky. Today 2 00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:11,320 Speaker 1: is Thursday, October ninth, twenty twenty five. It is twenty 3 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 1: five days till the twenty twenty five election local elections 4 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: across the country. Make a plan and get out and vote. 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Vote by mail, vote early in person, or vote on 6 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:23,440 Speaker 1: election day. Make a plan, just and make sure you vote. 7 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:27,159 Speaker 1: Local elections matter. Everything from school board to governor is 8 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: up in different places across the country. So find out 9 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: what's on the ballot in your area. Go to the 10 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 1: Secretary of State website or your local county website and 11 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 1: figure it out and make the game plan. It is 12 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: really important to have informed, active voters. Okay, I know 13 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,520 Speaker 1: that this podcast has been very heavy on campaigns lately. 14 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 1: I come from a campaign background. I'm sure a lot 15 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:52,199 Speaker 1: of other people are kind of getting sick of it 16 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 1: and it gets grading after a while. Not everyone is 17 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: like me who lives and eats and breathes campaigns. So 18 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: I think next Thursday, I'm going to do a politics 19 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: free episode where I will do another issue. I don't 20 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: know what it is yet, I'll know it by Monday, 21 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 1: but maybe I'll just do book reviews or something about 22 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 1: true crime or something I'm interested in, something that is 23 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: not related to campaign specific I will give my listener 24 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: a one day break before we go fall on into 25 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 1: the election, and if you have a topic, by the 26 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 1: way that you want me to research and cover, please 27 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: email me ryanat Numbers gamepodcast dot com and throw what 28 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: you like to hear about this non political episode. I'm 29 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 1: really leaving up to the audience and letting them decide 30 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: what I talk about. I think this would be really 31 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 1: interesting and a nice break from people who just want 32 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 1: to take a breather between all the conversations about the 33 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 1: elections coming up. So for today's episode, I have a 34 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: little bit of interesting data coming up with the campaigns 35 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: and the elections in our important states We're not just important, 36 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 1: but the ones that are the most high profile, as 37 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: well as some non political stuff related to birth data 38 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: that I think you'd find really interesting. So first, let's 39 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: go on the campaigns, because we're already talking about it. 40 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: I heard from a good friend of mine who is 41 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: on a statewide race in Virginia that internal polls have 42 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: Republican incumbent Attorney General Jason Miarrez in a statistical tie 43 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 1: with Democrat James Jay Jones. Now Jay Jones once again 44 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:21,839 Speaker 1: is the Democrat who made the comment that he wants 45 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:23,959 Speaker 1: to see his colleagues being shot in the head and 46 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:26,839 Speaker 1: having or he would shoot them in the head rather, 47 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:29,519 Speaker 1: and that he wants to see their children being murdered. 48 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: This poll was taken on the cusp of those comments. 49 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: So since those comments, I imagine he's going to see 50 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: a two or three point bump and we could very 51 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:43,079 Speaker 1: well see Miaras in the mix. As far as leading 52 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: in the polls, Donald Trump just recently endorsed him. Now, 53 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 1: early voting continues to climb in that state, as well 54 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 1: as all their states. Virginia has forty five days of 55 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: early voting, which in my opinion, is too much, and 56 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 1: over four hundred thousand people so far have voted like shit. 57 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:04,639 Speaker 1: Analysis experts estimate that about fifty two percent of registered 58 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 1: Virginians should be expected to vote in this election. That's 59 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: down from fifty five percent in twenty twenty one. Overall, 60 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 1: that means, if that's true, that means that between three 61 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: point one to three point two million people will be 62 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: expected to show up. That means that twelve point five percent, 63 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 1: or one in eight voters already have cast their ballot 64 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 1: lots of for grabs, but what mer is and what 65 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 1: the Republicans running in both lieutenant governor and governor and 66 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:36,119 Speaker 1: all across the state as far as state legislators wanted 67 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: to go. Whether which should be trying to do right 68 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 1: now is not only convince moderates and independence to cast 69 00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: ballots for them, but there are hundreds of thousands of 70 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: people who are low propensity voters who don't show up 71 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: in every election and convincing them to show up in 72 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: this election. Remember Donald Trump received two point zero seven 73 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: five million votes in twenty twenty four and Young Can 74 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: received one point sixty six million. That's the difference of 75 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:08,080 Speaker 1: four hundred and ten thousand people who vote Republican when 76 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: it's convenient for president or when they excited for president 77 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: but don't tend to show up in these elections, these 78 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: local elections. Four hundred and ten thousand people is a lot. 79 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 1: It's make or break, So really increasing attention towards these 80 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 1: races in the last few days may make the difference 81 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 1: between winning and losing. Miarez has a lot going for 82 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: him right now. There is a reporter named Nick Minneck. 83 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:37,359 Speaker 1: He is a reporter for w JLA over in Washington. 84 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 1: A pretty nonpartisan guy from everything I've ever seen from him, 85 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 1: and he says that Jay Jones is in crisis mode 86 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 1: in that election. He said he's on the phone with 87 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 1: Democrat elected officials asking them not to drop their support 88 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: for him. The Fraternal Order of Virginia Police came out 89 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 1: with a letter over the week saying that he was 90 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: unfit to hold for office, and he was. Jay Jones 91 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 1: was forced to cancel two fundraisers, including one with Senator 92 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 1: Tim King, because he was afraid of being asked questions 93 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: about his comments and his text messages. This all comes, 94 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 1: by the way, as the embattled Democrat is facing another controversy. 95 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: The Republican who he was texting with came out and 96 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:24,720 Speaker 1: said that Jones had told her that he believed some 97 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,480 Speaker 1: police needed to die in order to stop them from 98 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 1: killing people. He allegedly made these comments in twenty twenty eight, 99 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: at the height of the Floyd riots. I would love 100 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,280 Speaker 1: to see what Jay Jones had to sit there and 101 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 1: text the day Charlie Kirk was assassinated. That would probably 102 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: be very eye opening. Ason Mire is the Republican incumbent. 103 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,799 Speaker 1: His campaign is dropping an unbelievable one point five million 104 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 1: dollars in the closing weeks on a commercial and about 105 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:54,679 Speaker 1: the text messages that Jones sent. The Club for Growth, 106 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 1: which is a major Republican has a major Republican pack 107 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: and millions of millions of dollars in their arsenal. They 108 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: are also unveiling a brutal new ad with tagging that 109 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 1: Jones is dressed up in a soup but should be 110 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 1: in a straight jacket. I am unaware how much money 111 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: they're putting behind it, but the Club really doesn't do 112 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: anything in small doses. They're kind of a major They 113 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of a lot of firepower in 114 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: their canon. So I imagine if they're doing an ad 115 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:26,599 Speaker 1: and they're taking out such a brutal ad, that they 116 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,599 Speaker 1: are going to be spending a lot of money getting 117 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 1: it out there. Republicans. It's very clear that they think 118 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: Jason has Jason Miars has the chance to pull out 119 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 1: an election victory, and he might be the only one 120 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 1: statewide in Virginia who can. But it is something that 121 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: they are all doubling and tripling down on, from Donald 122 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: Trump to the Club for Growth to his own internal 123 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 1: campaign and j Jones is absolutely got is on his 124 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,600 Speaker 1: back heels. We'll see how that shakes up in the 125 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 1: last twenty five days to the election, but it's very 126 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 1: clear a whare the energy is moving and if we'll 127 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:07,480 Speaker 1: probably get a public poll I imagine soon. Washington Post 128 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: usually only releases one poll before the election, and they 129 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: adjusted it before the scandal broke. Maybe they'll do a 130 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: second one. Remember, polls are very, very expensive, so I 131 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 1: don't know. Maybe let's sit there, it's too much news 132 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: not to do what you would think. But we'll hopefully 133 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: get maybe some public polls next week about where the 134 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: state of the Virginia elections are and if anything changed 135 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 1: with Jay Jones's text messages. I genuinely hope for the 136 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 1: sake of our country that they did and that someone 137 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: who fantasizes about killing children does not hold elected office 138 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 1: in this country. Okay, now I want to focus on 139 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: New Jersey for a second. Republican Jack Chitarelli picked up 140 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 1: some important endorsements from two Democrats in Hudson County, New Jersey. 141 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 1: They are local elected officials in Hudson County. It's also 142 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 1: rumored that by the New Jersey Globe that the chairman 143 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: of the Hudson County Democratic Party is preparing to endorse Chittarelli. 144 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 1: This is a pretty big surprise. Hudson County is a 145 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: plurality Hispanic county that has voted for Democrat every presidential 146 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 1: election since nineteen eighty four, and where Jack Chiarelli only 147 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 1: received twenty five percent of the vote last time. Well, 148 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: obviously it's that wouldn't that would give permission for Democrats 149 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 1: to support basically any Democrat because it's such a democratic area, 150 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 1: They're not going to be held accountable by voters in 151 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 1: such a blue area. But like most places with large 152 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 1: Hispanic populations, it saw a right wing shift. The district 153 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 1: was eight points right from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty 154 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:42,680 Speaker 1: one in the governor's election, and sixteen points to the 155 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: right between twenty twenty and twenty twenty four. Trump received 156 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: twice as many votes that in twenty twenty four as 157 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:53,959 Speaker 1: Jack Charelli did in twenty twenty one. Who knows that 158 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: these people are going to be stay Republican or if 159 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 1: they're going to be animated to vote in a govern 160 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 1: election that's not a presidential election. If they're all just 161 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 1: low propensity voters, there's a lot of a lot of 162 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: this comes out of internal party politics of who hates 163 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 1: who and who doesn't like the Democrat Mickey Cheryl and 164 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: who doesn't like who's supported her. Part of this is 165 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: elected Democrats feeling the ability to be more for lack 166 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 1: of a better term, liberal in their decision making when 167 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: it comes to who to pick from, because normally you 168 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: would say, oh, I'm going to lose everything if I 169 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 1: endorse the Republican. They're probably only doing this if they 170 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:42,199 Speaker 1: feel like the Republican might win. Now, it's still solid 171 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: Democratic county in a state that leans Democratic, but party 172 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 1: but the party has some reason to be concerned. There 173 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: are internal polls showing that Mikey Cheryl is with only 174 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 1: three point lead against Jack Chidarelli. This is from a 175 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 1: new report from Axios. What's interesting about that is that 176 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: Democratic commentators have been saying publicly, don't worry, we are fine. 177 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 1: We have these Fox News polls that are showing that 178 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 1: Mikey Cheryl's up by eight points. It's still New Jersey. 179 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 1: New Jersey is still a blue state. Quietly, they've been 180 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:21,079 Speaker 1: dumping twenty five million dollars into this race from packs 181 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 1: to try to sit there and brand that Jack Ciarelli 182 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: is just like Trump, so if you hate Trump, you 183 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 1: have to vote against Jack Ciarelli. Democrats have been saying 184 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: this is not a five alarm fire, but it's clearly 185 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: not a cake walk. It's somewhere in between. Democrats still 186 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 1: hold an election turnout advantage. So far, New Jersey's voter 187 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 1: turnout has had a Democrat advantage of seventy five thousand. 188 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 1: They're all mail in votes because the early in person 189 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: voting has not yet begun in New Jersey, so that 190 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 1: should tighten. But Democrats are really trying to build this 191 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 1: massive early vote lead from mail in ballads in case 192 00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 1: they get swamped on election day. Republicans are returning ballots 193 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 1: at a slightly larger pace than they were in twenty twenty, 194 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 1: but a lot of people are there's more Democrats asking 195 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 1: for these ballots. In twenty twenty one, one hundred and 196 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 1: sixty thousand people requested ballots. In twenty twenty five, about 197 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: two hundred thousand people have requested ballots, and Democrats just 198 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: hold a larger lead in the physical number of ballots 199 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 1: they have returned. They're really animated to get these lower 200 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 1: propensalty people to vote by mail, and Republicans are still 201 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 1: skittish about voting by mail, so Democrats are looking to 202 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:38,680 Speaker 1: take advantage where they have the opportunity, basically using Republican 203 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 1: skiittishness on mail in ballots to get as many older 204 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:46,439 Speaker 1: people or lower pensity people to sit there and show up. 205 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: The same thing is happening, by the way, in Pennsylvania. 206 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania's not a race that a lot of people are covering, 207 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 1: but is a Supreme Court race. This will matter heavily 208 00:11:56,480 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: when Pennsylvania Supreme Court is a majority Democrats a statewide 209 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: elected position. This will matter intensely when they go into 210 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 1: the twenty thirty two redistricting map because the Democrat Pennsylvania 211 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 1: Supreme Court is not going to rule any map that 212 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 1: favors a Republican even if you know we have a 213 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 1: Republican governor and Republican legislature. They're not going to go 214 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: with any map that overly favors Republicans. And Pennsylvania has 215 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 1: slated toulu Is one congressional seat next year, so there's 216 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 1: a lot on the line right now. Democrats have requested 217 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:34,200 Speaker 1: six hundred and thirty one thousand, that's while Republicans have 218 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:37,839 Speaker 1: only requested two hundred and thirty five thousand. Pennsylvania has 219 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: no early voting aside from mail and balloting, so this 220 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 1: is intensely important. Democrats like to build this idea that 221 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: there's this firewall that they have built from early ballot voting. 222 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,559 Speaker 1: Because here's the thing, my people who only wait till 223 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 1: election day. If you are a person who's never missed 224 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,560 Speaker 1: an election, you're probably not going to miss this election. Now, 225 00:12:55,960 --> 00:13:00,080 Speaker 1: if you're the average Joe Schmoe, who cares. They they 226 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:04,559 Speaker 1: maybe listen to, you know, conservative talk radio, but they're busy, 227 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 1: They got kids, they have a job, they have a 228 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 1: social life. They sleep in that day, they have to 229 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 1: cook dinner, or they're surraining outside, they don't feel like 230 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 1: doing it, the weather's bad or what. Everyone makes excuses 231 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: of why they can and cannot show up on election day. 232 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 1: And for people who've only voted in one of the 233 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: four or zero of the four last elections, or even 234 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 1: two of the last four elections, it is intensely important 235 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 1: to try to get those people out early because those 236 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:31,840 Speaker 1: are the ones who always make excuses. You know these 237 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: kinds of people in your life, I have them. You 238 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:35,880 Speaker 1: know those people who will be like, oh, I'm gonna 239 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 1: cook for a fourth of July. I'm gonna come over 240 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 1: and bring over all the hamburgers and then they're an 241 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 1: hour and a half late like that and they only 242 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 1: have like three bunths. That is the kind of person 243 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: who you need to sit there and make sure that 244 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 1: they show up to vote, because if there's an excuse 245 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,680 Speaker 1: why they can't show why they can be late, they're 246 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 1: gonna find the excuse. We all have that people in 247 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: our life. Someone listen this podcast, maybe you are that 248 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,959 Speaker 1: person in that case, figure out a to go vote early. 249 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 1: I'm just going to touch on one other race, So 250 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania rounding up. Democrats definitely have been building up this lead. 251 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: It's not as large as it was the last time 252 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 1: they had a Supreme Court race, which was another odd year, 253 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: but it is much larger percentage wise than during the 254 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: presidential election when Trump where Republicans really did start two 255 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 1: Republicans credit. In the twenty twenty four election, Republicans in Pennsylvania, 256 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 1: especially at the end, really ramped up mail in voting. 257 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 1: They were turning those suckers in at a very very 258 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 1: fast rate. Last race I want to just touch on 259 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 1: because I want to cover all the big ones that 260 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 1: you guys could be updated, and that is the New 261 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 1: York City mayor's race. Social Zora Mandani is still has 262 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: a healthy double digit lead, about like twelve or thirteen 263 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 1: percent in most private and public polling I have seen. 264 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 1: He's not going to hit fifty percent. But there is 265 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 1: this conflict. Is that Curtis Leewaugh, who's the Republican nominee, 266 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: someone I've met many times over the years, doesn't have 267 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: a snowballs chance in hell of winning. His advisors are 268 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: telling him that he does. Andrew Cuomo is running one 269 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: of the worst campaigns I've ever seen in my life, 270 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 1: where he should be reaching out to Republicans in New 271 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: York and he's not doing any of that. He should 272 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 1: be telling to Republicans in New York. Remember, I was 273 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 1: once a moderate governor, and I will govern for all 274 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: New Yorkers, whether you are a Republican or not. I 275 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 1: don't know if it's his advisors, I don't know if 276 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: Cuomo just really doesn't care about Republicans. I actually found 277 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 1: out with this is the most interesting thing. I have 278 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: a friend who is I mean, this is a fire 279 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 1: breathing Republican someone younger than me and randomly brings up 280 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 1: that he is, you know, Andrew Cuomo's first cousin. I 281 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 1: was like what, I was like, how are you related 282 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: to this person? I mean, I guess that's true in 283 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: all families, but I don't. He can't have this absolute 284 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: hatred I think for Republicans, you know, considering that family 285 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 1: members close to him are, you know, our Republican clearly. 286 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 1: I just think that he is trying to appease the 287 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 1: most act out parts of the base. And he's the 288 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 1: same guy who said if you are pro life, you 289 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: don't belong in New York State. So enough of those 290 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 1: comments have, I think, really caught up to him, and 291 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 1: this is the time where he should be saying too Republicans, 292 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 1: to Republican Party bosses, to Republican Party voters, Hey, if 293 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: you support me, I will the Democrats and the unions 294 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: that he essentially has a lot of sway with and 295 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 1: would if he was a mayor, support all the Republican 296 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: incumbents in New York City for City Council and for 297 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: State Assembly and for State Senate. That's a lot that 298 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 1: would do so much for Republicans if he just even 299 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 1: gave that little breadcrumb, but I don't know what he's doing. 300 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: I think this is one of the worst campaigns I've 301 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 1: ever seen in my life and courteously should have drop 302 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:52,600 Speaker 1: that a long time ago. Okay, that's my political roundup 303 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 1: for this episode. I will cover politics probably on Monday, 304 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 1: especially if the Supreme Court decides on Section two eighty 305 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 1: eight the Voting Rights Act. I'll give you probably a 306 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,159 Speaker 1: brief update about it, and then Thursday we'll do a 307 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 1: non political episode. I have a non political issue that 308 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 1: I want to bring up on this episode, and it 309 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: is about birth data trends and I think it's fascinating 310 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 1: and you will too, so stay tuned next. So, the 311 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:22,400 Speaker 1: CDC is the official authority on data relating to births 312 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 1: and deaths. The Census usually puts out its own estimates, 313 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 1: and the media loves to talk about the Census estimates, 314 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:30,879 Speaker 1: but the Census estimates are not the ones the government uses. 315 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 1: It's the CDC and CDC Wonder, which is their website. 316 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: They have a preliminary monthly numbers before the final estimation 317 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: is given out and the final aust mission comes out 318 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,119 Speaker 1: usually eighteen months after the year's over. Because they do 319 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 1: all the calculations and we wait for the official estimate, 320 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 1: obviously official numbers, and that will be released for twenty 321 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 1: twenty five, sometimes in late twenty twenty six or early 322 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 1: twenty twenty seven. On October first, they put out their 323 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:00,680 Speaker 1: estimates for the year of twenty twenty five from January 324 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 1: to August, and there's some interesting data that tells a 325 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: bigger story about our country and where we're going. First, 326 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: let's look at the top line numbers. From January to 327 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: August twenty twenty five, there were a little less than 328 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 1: two point four million babies born in this country. That's 329 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: down about a half a percentage point from the year prior. 330 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 1: And they don't break down babies born by the race 331 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 1: of the child. They break it down by the race 332 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,639 Speaker 1: of the mother. Forty nine point seven to six percent 333 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 1: of all babies born from the from January to August 334 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 1: were had white mothers, twenty six point seven seven had 335 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 1: Hispanic mothers, twelve point six had Black mothers, six percent 336 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 1: had Asian mothers, and the rest were either a multi 337 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 1: racial American, Indian, Pacific Islander, or other. The decline infertility 338 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:51,880 Speaker 1: rates in the birth rates in the last during this 339 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 1: year is not equal among all racial groups. Specifically, two 340 00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 1: groups have seen a noticeable drop in fertility, one being 341 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: non Hispanic blacks and the second being foreigners, people whose 342 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 1: women born in another country, specifically women from high populations 343 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 1: of illegal immigrants, soies, so women who come from countries 344 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: with large illegal alien populations. In the United States, let's 345 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 1: start with the non Hispanic black number. It is a 346 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 1: strange phenomenon that happened sometime in the mid to late 347 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 1: two thousands, and it's that the black birth rate has 348 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:35,639 Speaker 1: been just steadily declining to the point of collapsing in 349 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: some parts of this country. The black female birth rate 350 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, for the first time in a 351 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: very long time, was actually lower than whites, and at 352 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 1: the rate that has declined this year, twenty twenty five 353 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:50,640 Speaker 1: will have a larger gap in the white fertility rate, 354 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 1: the non Hispanic white fertility rate versus the black fertility rate. 355 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,959 Speaker 1: This has started. This general decline has started for a 356 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 1: bit of time. It started in the ninety when there 357 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 1: was a real effort presented by both the federal government 358 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 1: as well as the local and state to one do 359 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 1: welfare reform and the second only to stop to provide 360 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 1: basically protection, so there was less teen births. The teen 361 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 1: birth rate from the nineties has it's gone down like 362 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: well over ninety five ninety eight percent of teen births. 363 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 1: Teen births just don't happen, not nearly like they used to. 364 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,679 Speaker 1: But the birth rate for non Hispanic Black women remained 365 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:35,400 Speaker 1: around the same from the late nineties into the late 366 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 1: two thousands and then just nose dives and it's fallen 367 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,960 Speaker 1: three point six percent this year alone. Now a lot 368 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 1: of conservative commentators immediately bring up abortion. They say, well, 369 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 1: access to abortion is what's killing black babies in the womb. 370 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: That is partially true. But states with very strict abortion 371 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:59,639 Speaker 1: laws even abortion bands, don't have a significantly higher Black 372 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 1: for ten rate with states with very little to no 373 00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 1: abortion bands. So states like Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida, 374 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 1: they all have very strict abortion laws, they have a 375 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:15,439 Speaker 1: birth rate well below replacement and pretty much equal to 376 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 1: places like Colorado, Delaware, Ohio, and Michigan. There's not been 377 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:26,239 Speaker 1: a single sociological examination of that this is happening. I 378 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:30,120 Speaker 1: doubt that even sociologists have realized how much this is happening. 379 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 1: I guarantee. A lot of other people aren't even talking 380 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 1: about this right now, but around the twenty tens, there 381 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,920 Speaker 1: was a dramatic increase in the number of Black women 382 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: attending college. Remember when women attend college, especially in a 383 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:46,199 Speaker 1: master's degree or a PhD program, they put child rearing 384 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 1: well into their late thirties or early forties, or just 385 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,159 Speaker 1: give up on it altogether, and they have fewer children 386 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 1: than they would have had they didn't pursue a doctorate 387 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 1: or a master's. There was about eleven percent of black 388 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,399 Speaker 1: women had a bachelor's degree in nineteen ninety. That was 389 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: up to twenty six percent and twenty twenty three. So 390 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,880 Speaker 1: college as part of it, as well as the declining 391 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 1: number of teen pregnancies, and then a third part of 392 00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 1: it is the cost of living. States like New York, 393 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: New Jersey, California, Connecticut, they have a fertility level of 394 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: Black women that is heading towards about one child per woman, 395 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 1: which is that means the population will have over the 396 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,479 Speaker 1: course of the next twenty to twenty five years as 397 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:31,719 Speaker 1: older generations pass away and younger generations are significantly smaller. 398 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 1: This is the problem you're seeing like in Japan and 399 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,679 Speaker 1: in South Korea and in Italy and Poland, is that 400 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 1: the generations are literally half of what they were just 401 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,520 Speaker 1: twenty years ago, and they're continuing to decline because people 402 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,199 Speaker 1: are not having enough babies. What that sits there and 403 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 1: says to me specifically, given that these birth rates come 404 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 1: out of big blue states where the populations are not 405 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,679 Speaker 1: having a lot of children, is that you're going to 406 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:05,359 Speaker 1: see the Democrats increasingly dependent on immigrants to make up 407 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,439 Speaker 1: the declining population in the states from the Americans who 408 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,200 Speaker 1: are not having children today. Right, And I want to 409 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: go over the whole idea of policies affecting children in 410 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 1: one second, but before I do, I want to bring 411 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,199 Speaker 1: up the illegal aliens for a second. Not illegal aliens, 412 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 1: all aliens, foreigners who are having children. The number of 413 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: foreigners giving birth in America skyrocketed during Biden's administration, which 414 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: would make sense because he had an open border and 415 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:34,399 Speaker 1: they know, hey, citizenship, if I just give birth to 416 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,960 Speaker 1: a baby during this time period twenty twenty five, looks 417 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: like as of right now, that the number of births 418 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:45,200 Speaker 1: by foreigners is down at one point seven percent across 419 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 1: the board. That's not even among people of every single country. 420 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 1: President Biden, if you remember, in his last year as administration, 421 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 1: did something called the CCHNV Parole program, where he was 422 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,960 Speaker 1: he was so nervous with the optics of people flooding 423 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,679 Speaker 1: the border that he was lying people into this country 424 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 1: if they came from four specific countries where there was 425 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:09,040 Speaker 1: large populations of people trying to cross the border, Cuba, Hating, Nicaragua, 426 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 1: and Venezuela. Currently, birth rates for Cubans, Haitians, and Venezuelan 427 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 1: Venezuelans are up twelve percent this year versus last year. 428 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 1: Because even though Trump has ended the program, they're clearly 429 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: very well aware that if they have children now, they'll 430 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 1: have a case to sit there and try to get 431 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 1: some kind of amnesty, they'll have a foothold for citizenship. 432 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 1: They are very very well aware of that, and I 433 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 1: think that's part of it. The other group that is 434 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: still having a lot more kids than they used to 435 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 1: are Afghanistanian Afghanistan because they are I mean a lot 436 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 1: more refugees live in this country now too. Their birth 437 00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,200 Speaker 1: rates members are up significantly. So those are the people 438 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 1: who are increasing who's declining as far as foreign women 439 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 1: having children in America, who are there for them becoming 440 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,679 Speaker 1: American citizens women from Mexico. They are birth rates down 441 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 1: for point six percent. L Salvador is down thirteen percent. 442 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 1: Or remember under President Bukeli, L Salvador is a very 443 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,639 Speaker 1: safe country now and he's doing all these economic reforms 444 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 1: to try to get the economy going and the standard 445 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 1: of living you can get more bang for your buck 446 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 1: down there, a lot of L Salvadorians are it looks like, 447 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:24,280 Speaker 1: starting to move back to El Salvador or considering it 448 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 1: as Trump is cracked down on illegal immigration and there's 449 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 1: job opportunity and safe streets in El Salvador. The number 450 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 1: of illegal aliens people from El Salvador are even trying 451 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,479 Speaker 1: to illegally immigrate to this country is declining and was 452 00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 1: declining even going back to Biden's last year because El 453 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 1: Salvador was becoming so safe. El Salvadorians are down thirteen percent, 454 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,359 Speaker 1: Hondurans are down six percent, Chinese are down five percent, 455 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 1: and Nigerians are down ten percent. Populations with large illegal 456 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,640 Speaker 1: alien groups in this country who are fearing deportation or 457 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:58,399 Speaker 1: are self deporting or are physically being deported, you're seeing 458 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 1: declining birth rates among those populations. So I've find that 459 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 1: all very very interesting how those numbers are being how 460 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 1: public policy is reflecting in our birthnverage going forward. Lastly, 461 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:13,359 Speaker 1: there's a big significant split based on politics and religion 462 00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:18,159 Speaker 1: and child rearing. Most fertile counties in our country with 463 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,959 Speaker 1: a population of over one hundred thousand people all voted 464 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,439 Speaker 1: for Trump, every one of them. The top fifty all 465 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 1: voted for Trump unanimously. The bottom fifty, the ones who 466 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: have the fewest children, of counties with one hundred thousand 467 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,159 Speaker 1: people or less, all voted for Comma. I think, except 468 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:43,359 Speaker 1: for one. That is a stark difference in priorities in policy, 469 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 1: in just view of your way of life, view in 470 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 1: what you want to do. Listen, we don't live in 471 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:58,640 Speaker 1: America in twenty twenty five. Children are not an economic 472 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,960 Speaker 1: asset the way that they were one hundred years ago. Right, 473 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,439 Speaker 1: your child is not going to be farm a farm 474 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 1: hand or work in a factory. In bringing home their paycheck. 475 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 1: Kids cost a lot of money. They're a big sacrifice. 476 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:15,480 Speaker 1: And unless you are motivated by a calling to have children, 477 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 1: or religion or something like that, or the idea that 478 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:24,119 Speaker 1: strong families build strong countries. A lot of conservative ideas, 479 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 1: there's nothing driving you to have children. And that is 480 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:33,160 Speaker 1: why we're seeing birth rates among progressives and improgressive areas 481 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:37,320 Speaker 1: just knows, dive across the board so far in twenty 482 00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 1: twenty five. This is according to CDC wonder st one 483 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 1: percent of all births that have happened in this country 484 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,600 Speaker 1: happened in states that Donald Trump won. Now, remember Trump 485 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:50,920 Speaker 1: got forty nine percent of the vote, but sixty one 486 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 1: percent of all the births are happening in Trump states. 487 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 1: That's a tremendous difference when you especial when you consider 488 00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 1: that states like Illinois and New York and Maryland in 489 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 1: Connecticut and New Jersey, in California and Washington, those are 490 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,159 Speaker 1: big states. Colorado's not a small state. Colorado is not 491 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 1: you know, North Dakota. This is a lot of people 492 00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 1: just flat out saying this is not for me. I'm 493 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,639 Speaker 1: not going to either have kids or maybe I'll have 494 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 1: one if that, And it's going to be a problem 495 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 1: in the future as you have two parties that have 496 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 1: very different conceptions of how to prioritize and invest in things. Right, 497 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 1: a lot of times in the last decade, the two 498 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 1: leading politicians that fought for increased tax breaks for families 499 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 1: were Mike Lee and Mark Rubio, because one represent a 500 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 1: lot of Hispanics that have not a crazy high fertility anymore, 501 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,560 Speaker 1: but higher than the average. And the other was Mormons, 502 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: and there's a lot of Mormons with big families. Their politics, 503 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 1: they what they prioritize was historically different than what a 504 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 1: lot of Democrats prioritize, and which party is inclined to 505 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 1: care about issues like that will matter immensely as states. 506 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 1: You'll have states with lots of children or with just children, 507 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 1: even if it's two per couple, and you will have 508 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 1: states with less than one per couple, and that will 509 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:21,720 Speaker 1: bring out two different countries in a different way. Pew 510 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 1: researched a study just a few days ago, and they asked, 511 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 1: are you concerned about the declining birth rates? A majority 512 00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 1: of Americans for the first time said yes, that they 513 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,960 Speaker 1: think it's negative and they are worried. But even then 514 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,480 Speaker 1: there was a partisan break. Sixty three percent of Republicans 515 00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 1: said yes, forty four percent of Democrats said yes, And 516 00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,720 Speaker 1: the most concerned group about declining birth rates and declining 517 00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:51,040 Speaker 1: families were young Republican men. The least concerned young Democratic women. 518 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 1: It is a very, very very big question, and as 519 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,960 Speaker 1: states hollow out in the next decade, in the next 520 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 1: two decades because of declining birth rates, Democrats are going 521 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 1: to be increasingly dependent on illegal and legal immigration. As 522 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 1: voters leave their state because of failed economic policies, because 523 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:21,000 Speaker 1: of high taxes, because of declining quality of life, illegal 524 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:25,360 Speaker 1: immigrants and legal immigrants will fill that void. Even though 525 00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 1: they have failed American people, They will look for foreigners 526 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 1: to fill the void of Americans who either gave up 527 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 1: on children or gave up on their state. This is 528 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:42,400 Speaker 1: why reducing immigration, both legal and illegal, is so utterly important. 529 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:46,520 Speaker 1: If we continue at the rate we are at and 530 00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 1: we just impoort people California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, 531 00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:56,920 Speaker 1: these failed blue state experiments, they're politicians who should be 532 00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 1: losing congressional seats at a faster than they are will 533 00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:05,960 Speaker 1: not suffer those ramifications. So long as we have mass immigration, 534 00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,719 Speaker 1: the electoral college vote will not shrink as it should 535 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,880 Speaker 1: because of mass immigration. Does come down to that, over 536 00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 1: and over and over again, and I think the birth 537 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,800 Speaker 1: data really does sit there and extrapolate to a larger 538 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:22,160 Speaker 1: question of who we are, our priorities, what we value, 539 00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:24,280 Speaker 1: our values as a country, and I think you're going 540 00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 1: to have a bigger going forward to you have a 541 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 1: bigger split on the idea of investing in families. All right, now, 542 00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 1: time for Ask Me Anything. Stay tuned now it's time 543 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:40,840 Speaker 1: for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you want to 544 00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,200 Speaker 1: be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me 545 00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,720 Speaker 1: Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. Send me a question. 546 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:48,560 Speaker 1: I read them all. Anyone I don't get you on 547 00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,640 Speaker 1: aar I sent a private email too, and I appreciate 548 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,640 Speaker 1: all my listeners who make this show happen. So this 549 00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:55,959 Speaker 1: one comes from Ryan or Day. He wants to know 550 00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 1: how to Democrats hold the Kentucky governor election. Sorr, I 551 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 1: win the election for Kentucky's governorship even though the state 552 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:06,400 Speaker 1: has moved significantly towards Republicans both federally and in voter registration. 553 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,720 Speaker 1: That is a great question, Robert, So Democrats, this is 554 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:13,400 Speaker 1: in that this is in the most recent election. Democrats 555 00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 1: have had the governor's mansion for most of the last 556 00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 1: one hundred years. Republicans have only controlled the governorship of 557 00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:26,200 Speaker 1: Kentucky for twelve years since nineteen forty seven twenty fifteen. 558 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 1: Matt Bevian won Republican. Matt Bevan won a significant victory 559 00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 1: for Republicans. He won by nine points in a state 560 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:37,040 Speaker 1: that doesn't elect Republicans, only to lose it by half 561 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:40,479 Speaker 1: a percentage points to Andy Basheer in twenty nineteen. Now, 562 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 1: Andy Basheer is also floating that he's going to run 563 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:47,720 Speaker 1: for president. So what happened? First, Evan was one of 564 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 1: the least popular governors going into reelection in twenty twenty three. 565 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:56,360 Speaker 1: He had a thirty two percent of favorability rating and 566 00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 1: he even had a forty percent disciperating with Republicans going 567 00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:03,240 Speaker 1: to election day. Remember, Kentucky has a lot of working 568 00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:06,720 Speaker 1: class Republicans, a lot of people who were in unions, 569 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,120 Speaker 1: a lot of people who are on welfare and depend 570 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 1: on foodstamps, and a lot of them who were recently Democrats, 571 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,360 Speaker 1: and they still hold a lot of Democratic issues on 572 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 1: fiscal policy. So first Bevans, I think First Bevan's first 573 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:24,080 Speaker 1: mistake was he's very bombastic. I think people like look 574 00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 1: at Trump and sit there and say I could be 575 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:27,800 Speaker 1: just like him, and they take the wrong lessons, and 576 00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,280 Speaker 1: the lessons should be Hey, I could speak towards the 577 00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:34,320 Speaker 1: American people's interests on America first topics, and instead they're like, hey, 578 00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 1: I could act, you know, rude to people and be 579 00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 1: funny get away with it. Most people are not funny. 580 00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,080 Speaker 1: Matt Evans not particularly funny. Donald Trump's hilarious, so that 581 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 1: he has that advantage. But Matt Bevan went after not 582 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:49,960 Speaker 1: the teachers' union, but teachers, which is two very separate things. 583 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,080 Speaker 1: He went after the profession himself. He said they were 584 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:57,440 Speaker 1: selfish and had a thug like mentality. Then he went 585 00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,960 Speaker 1: after trying to stop the Medicaid expansion that the previous 586 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:05,800 Speaker 1: Democratic governor had already okayed, which would have given four 587 00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:11,160 Speaker 1: hundred thousand Kentucky residents, mostly poor, rural white Republicans were 588 00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:15,480 Speaker 1: on So cutting four hundred thousand Republican voters from the 589 00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:19,960 Speaker 1: medicaid Medicaid expansion was definitely a big, big hit. Lastly, 590 00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,320 Speaker 1: you know Kentucky. I've done some business in Kentucky. Kentucky 591 00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:30,600 Speaker 1: is business owners like paper like. It's a nightmare. It's 592 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:32,400 Speaker 1: a night where to employ people you have to go. 593 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 1: It's tons of red tape. It reminds of Illinois and 594 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:39,840 Speaker 1: New York. It should be a lot, a lot easier 595 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,279 Speaker 1: to do business in Kentucky than it currently is, and 596 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,920 Speaker 1: they have a lot of fiscal problems on the state levels. 597 00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:49,319 Speaker 1: There's a lot of money owed in pension programs that 598 00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:51,000 Speaker 1: they have not they don't have a they don't have 599 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:55,640 Speaker 1: a plan for So Bevan's plan was austerity, and austerity 600 00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 1: is never popular, but especially not when people are already 601 00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:03,480 Speaker 1: economically and uncertain areas, and when you're cutting off Medicaid 602 00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,400 Speaker 1: expansion and you're not a particularly lovable person because you're 603 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:10,480 Speaker 1: a bombastic All of those things ended up counting. So 604 00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,000 Speaker 1: that's why Bevan lost. It seems like it was an 605 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,279 Speaker 1: easy win to have and he just yeah, he just 606 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:18,920 Speaker 1: had a lot. It was a it was a death 607 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,960 Speaker 1: by a thousand paper cuts. So but that's the story 608 00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:25,160 Speaker 1: and that's why map Evan lost and that's why Democrats 609 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,319 Speaker 1: currently hold the governorship of Kentucky. Anyway, thank you for 610 00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 1: your question, Robert, great question. Love telling stories about political 611 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,440 Speaker 1: campaigns and the history, so love questions like that. Anyway, 612 00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:36,319 Speaker 1: Thank you guys for listening. I will speak to you 613 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,640 Speaker 1: all on Monday. Stay tuned a please liken subscribe on 614 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts.