WEBVTT - NFL: AFC Preview (Ep. 95) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:15.200 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:16.040 --> 0:00:19.440 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me joeyp Joe Pizipia. 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:23.560 And today officially kicks off what our NFL coverage. I 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:25.479 know you've all been waiting for it. We've had so 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:29.800 much going on, Baseball, Olympics, so many things, But it's 0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:32.839 a football season, that's right. Training camp is here and 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:34.880 from now on, I promise you we're gonna have a 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:37.640 whole lot more football talk the next month or so, 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:40.760 all leading up into the season, and of course in season, 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:42.640 we're gonna take you through everything you need to know 0:00:43.040 --> 0:00:45.800 all week long in terms of the lines, where they're moving, 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:47.640 and where you want to place your bets. And of 0:00:47.720 --> 0:00:49.839 course today we want to kick things off with our 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:53.519 AFC preview. We're gonna talk to you about the win totals, 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:57.320 the props, the division and also those conferences as well. 0:00:57.360 --> 0:01:00.279 Who we think might come out of that AFC And 0:01:00.320 --> 0:01:02.560 of course those division winners are really important too. There 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:04.600 might be a few divisions that are really more up 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:07.080 for grabs than we might think. And of course there's 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:09.400 nobody better to talk about all this with the one 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:12.000 of my favorite people. She is a rising star or 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:14.840 maybe already a star on the Sports Grid network. You 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.080 see her every single morning for three full hours, and 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:19.480 you know what, that's not enough. On the morning after 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:22.319 you can catch on MSG as well, and of course 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:25.160 she's known to most as the prop Queen, but she's 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:28.160 everywhere rocking and rolling from the FanDuel Sports with five 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:30.959 days a week. Ariol Epstein, it is so nice to 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:32.839 see your face and have you on the show today 0:01:32.880 --> 0:01:35.399 to talk a little AFC preview with you. How are 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:38.880 you this fine afternoon, Joe piece Apia. 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:42.000 I am so excited to be here today. Also, I 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:44.200 had no idea when you invited me on that this 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:47.760 was going to be kicking off your NFL coverage. No pressure. 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:49.520 At least I don't have to go up against anyone 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:51.520 else's opinions yet, so that's good. I get to start 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:51.880 it off. 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:54.720 Maybe a little of mine, but who cares. A good 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:58.800 difference of opinion makes for good radio, for a good podcast, 0:01:58.840 --> 0:02:02.200 for good TV. Steel sharpened steel areals. That's what it's 0:02:02.200 --> 0:02:04.080 all about. It's about all of us getting some good 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:06.600 information and then letting everybody else go out there and 0:02:06.600 --> 0:02:08.680 fish or whatever. The hell that used to be about. 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:11.400 So today, like I said, it's AFC time, so we're 0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:14.120 gonna chat about that. And I know you are a 0:02:14.200 --> 0:02:17.119 Ravens fan, I'm a Patriots fan. Somehow, we will try 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:19.480 our best to coexist for the next half hours, So 0:02:19.880 --> 0:02:21.840 make it all work. There have been some great battles 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:25.120 over the last few years or so for our teams. 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:27.400 But I want to start with the AFC East. And 0:02:27.400 --> 0:02:29.880 obviously the Bills, who last year had quite a run, 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:32.480 came real close to the Super Bowl, fell a little short. 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:35.600 Josh Allen had a great season. They clearly are leading 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:39.120 things off here at minus one fifty five, and that 0:02:39.240 --> 0:02:41.800 is of course our betting consensus pros number. And for 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:44.400 all the betting consensus pros numbers, you go to bettingpros 0:02:44.440 --> 0:02:46.519 dot com and you could see where all the different 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.880 sports books are pushing you towards where the lines are, 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.280 where the values are as well. No surprise to see 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:54.440 the Bills at the top, then the Dolphins at plus 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:57.239 three hundred, of course, my Patriots at plus three fifty, 0:02:57.240 --> 0:03:00.280 and then the Jets, the lowly Jets at plus twenty 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:02.600 five hundred. So let's leave the Jets out of the equation. 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:05.760 They're so adorable, aren't they? The Jets trying to get 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:06.480 another quarterback? 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:06.960 They try? 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:08.639 Don't you love it? Areo when they try to get 0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:10.600 another quarterback every couple of years, And that's gonna be 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:11.280 the one. 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:13.880 Right, It's gonna be the line, especially, you know when 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.720 their passing yards drop is what thirty four hundred yards 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:18.960 or something like that. This year it's a mess. But 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.240 I do love their new head coach ravererts a lot. 0:03:21.280 --> 0:03:23.440 I think that's Salad's gonna do a great job there. 0:03:23.639 --> 0:03:25.359 It's just not going to be this year. 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:29.000 I agree one thousand percent. I'm a huge fan of him. 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:31.239 Hopefully he give me a guy to finally gets. 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:32.079 That's why you like him, right. 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:34.560 Well, I'm not gonna lie. That's a big part of it. 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:37.560 He's definitely handsome, obviously you could tell from that. So 0:03:37.800 --> 0:03:39.960 let's talk about does anybody have a shot here in 0:03:39.960 --> 0:03:44.400 this division besides Buffalo? Because the Dolphins did draft Jalen Waddell, 0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:46.520 they did bring in Will Fuller. Last year was a 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:49.800 very difficult circumstance for Tua to really kind of develop. 0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:53.000 The locker room was kind of against him, the injury 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:55.600 was against him. No preseason all that was against him. 0:03:55.640 --> 0:03:57.760 Do the Dolphins have a chance here at plus three hundred, 0:03:57.840 --> 0:04:00.240 or do the Patriots with all those players coming back 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:02.480 from COVID have a shot here? Or is it just 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:04.920 a foregone conclusion that the East belongs to Buffalo. 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:09.200 It is a foregone conclusion that the East belongs to Buffalo. 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:13.000 You're asking someone that has been constantly saying the next 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:16.279 curse to be broken is the Buffalo Bill's Super Bowl curse. 0:04:16.520 --> 0:04:18.800 We have broken so many curses in sports in the 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:22.839 last few years, the Cubs, the Red Sox, the Capitals. 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:25.880 It is time for the Buffalo Bills to break the curse. 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:28.479 They just signed their quarterback Josh Allen to a huge 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:31.800 extension through twenty twenty seven. All the Bills have to 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:35.320 do is improve their defense. Two years ago, the Bill's 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:38.320 defense was top ten in the league. Last year, they 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:41.120 weren't in that category, but their offense was top ten 0:04:41.160 --> 0:04:43.839 in the league. If they can combine the two two 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:46.719 years ago and last year, the Bills are a Super 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:49.760 Bowl contender. Their head coach, Sean McDermott is a defensive 0:04:49.800 --> 0:04:50.400 minded coach. 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:51.520 He was the defensive. 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:54.120 Coordinator in Carolina. If there's anyone they can get the 0:04:54.200 --> 0:04:57.359 job done in improving this defense. It's the defensive mind 0:04:57.560 --> 0:05:00.359 of Sean McDermott. The problem with the other teams in 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:04.120 this division is there's too much uncertainty. Tuatunguovailoa from Miami 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:07.040 last year, he was a turnover prone quarterback. He was 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:09.960 still a little bit shaky on his feet, and even 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:12.840 though they added to the receiver position, I'm still not 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:16.240 convinced that this Miami team is good enough to get 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:19.159 through the division. Your Patriots are a team that's tough 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:21.280 for me to bet on because I don't know what's 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:23.720 going to happen at quarterback. How long is Cam Newton 0:05:23.800 --> 0:05:25.640 really going to stay under center, or are they going 0:05:25.720 --> 0:05:27.520 to try to make the switch to Mac Jones midway 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:29.160 through the year. I don't want to bet on a 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:33.240 team that may be making a mid switch, a midyear 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:36.080 switch at quarterback. Even though Justin Herbert was the Rookie 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:38.040 of the Year last year for the Chargers and had 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:41.680 an amazing rookie season, he has all these veterans around him, 0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:43.480 and it still wasn't enough to get the Chargers to 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:45.800 the playoffs. When they have a team like the Kansas 0:05:45.800 --> 0:05:48.360 City Chiefs sitting at the top of their division. That's 0:05:48.400 --> 0:05:51.000 how I feel about the Patriots and the Dolphins. Just 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:54.080 not enough experience. When you have this Bills team that's 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:57.360 now built playoff experience for the last two years, all 0:05:57.440 --> 0:05:58.400 they really have to do. 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:00.479 Is zone in on that efense. 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.960 Well, I absolutely agree with you. It's Buffaloes to lose, 0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:06.480 and I can't see putting money on the Dolphins or 0:06:06.520 --> 0:06:08.920 the Pats. Like you said, uncertainty is the biggest thing. Now. Look, 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:11.679 these teams might end up in the playoffs, but winning 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:15.160 that division, eh. And I do think that secondary can 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:16.440 get back to where it was a couple of years 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:18.599 ago for Buffalo. They were a fantastic group. They also 0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:20.480 hit hard, which is nice. You don't see a lot 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:22.240 of secondaries that still hit people the way they do. 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:24.600 A little bit of intimidation factors good. They need a 0:06:24.640 --> 0:06:25.839 little bit better play up front. 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:28.000 It's a little bit harder too, when you're in Buffalo 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:30.240 in December. The hit is just a little bit harder, 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:31.040 a little bit more. 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:33.159 But that's also what hurts them On the offensive side. 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:35.799 They don't run the football very well outside of Josh Allen. 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:37.960 That's the problem when you get to December. In January, 0:06:38.000 --> 0:06:40.160 you don't have a running game in Buffalo. It does 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:42.120 kind of come around to bite. You just go back 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:44.440 and look out close at Indianapolis, Colt's playoff game ended 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:46.799 up becoming at the end because you can't run out clock. 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:49.080 That's an issue. You want to make sure you take 0:06:49.080 --> 0:06:51.360 advantage of that weather. Now, I want to take advantage 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:53.360 of this division that we're gonna talk about next, because 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:55.360 this is the AFC North, and I know this is 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:58.440 very personal to you, but this is all business here 0:06:58.480 --> 0:06:59.760 on the show. This is what we do at betting. 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:04.160 The Ravens are at the top somehow betting consensus plus 0:07:04.560 --> 0:07:08.440 one twenty the Cleveland Browns, that's right, the Cleveland Browns 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:10.920 plus one forty five, the Steelers at plus four to 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:13.320 twenty five, and the Bengals all the way at twenty 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:15.840 to one. Bengals still work in progress. Will leave them alone. 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:18.960 Hopefully Joe Burrow gets his knee right and his confidence back, 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:21.160 and they'll just fun to watch from a fantasy perspective. 0:07:21.560 --> 0:07:24.560 But all of a sudden, it's a little different dynamic 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:26.040 that we're starting to see. All of a sudden, the 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:28.960 Cleveland Browns, the depth of the Browns, the defense of 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:31.200 the Browns, the running game of the Browns. All that 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:34.680 looks really good. So are you confident that the Ravens 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:38.480 can take a step forward offensively and start to throw 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:40.240 the ball a little bit more, become a little bit 0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:43.120 more of a diverse offense or do you think maybe, 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:46.440 just maybe, the Browns have a real shot at this thing. 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:48.880 I know that's a loaded question, but I ask it anyway. 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:51.960 The Browns on paper should have a shot at this thing. 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:54.680 The problem is that they're the Browns. Even though last 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:57.880 year they still had a good season. I'm concerned about 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:01.040 what's going to happen with the mental cases on this team. 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:04.600 You have Odell Beckham Junior and Jarvis Landry granted Odell's 0:08:04.640 --> 0:08:08.800 back from tearing his ACL Baker Mayfield another head case, 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.080 and then you have the defensive side to Davion Clowney 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:14.280 who can't stay healthy. And you have Miles Garrett, who, Okay, 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:16.400 he's one of the best defensive players in the NFL. 0:08:17.160 --> 0:08:20.760 I'm still concerned. I love this Browns team on paper, 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:24.160 I just can't put money on them. There's too much, again, 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:27.880 uncertainty when it comes to consistency and the Browns. To me, 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:30.400 I just can't rely on They just can't win the 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.840 big game. They can't get past the Ravens, and they 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:36.480 can't get past the Steelers. To be honest, they always 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:39.400 keep it close. Can they take the next can they 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:43.040 take the next step? AFC North is really tough to handicap, 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:45.760 because you're right, the Ravens are a team that even 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:49.319 though they've added young wide receivers, they added Sammy Watkins, 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:51.080 another player that can't stay on the field for more 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.880 than half a season. I wish the bout half a quarter, 0:08:54.360 --> 0:08:58.360 half a corner right. Tammy Watkins is so tough to 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:01.719 watch play. And then today, the day that we're recording this, 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:04.719 Rashad Bateman, their rookie wide receiver out of Minnesota, is 0:09:04.800 --> 0:09:07.000 limping off the field after going up for a ball 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:09.680 at practice. If the Ravens can't stay healthy him, mean 0:09:09.720 --> 0:09:12.120 this thing is over. But apparently Mark Andrews and Lamar 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:14.760 still have a good dynamic, which I'm not surprised by. 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:18.200 The problem is last year, it's hard to judge because 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:20.839 the Ravens didn't really have camp, they didn't have much 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:22.800 of a summer, and that was really the year that 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:25.720 they needed Lamar Jackson to excel in the passing game. 0:09:26.080 --> 0:09:28.760 The good thing the Ravens can't get worse at the 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:31.800 path or the worst pass offense in the NFL last year. 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:34.880 It really can't get worse. They can only go up. 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:38.320 The Ravens can improve this passing game if Bateman stays 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:40.839 healthy on the field, if Sammy Watkins can play a 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:45.200 few games, and if Hollywood Brown can somehow get better, 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:47.520 and we showed we saw glimpses of it last year 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:50.719 towards the end of the season. I'm just hoping that 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:53.679 Bateman can challenge Hollywood. On the other side, I'm not 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:56.240 betting anything in this division, and I know that that's 0:09:56.520 --> 0:09:58.360 hard to say because I'm here on a show trying 0:09:58.360 --> 0:09:59.840 to give out picks. But the one thing I would 0:09:59.840 --> 0:10:02.480 do is it actually like the Steelers over eight and 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:04.959 a half wins, I would go more win total in 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:07.559 the AFC North than I would for betting any of 0:10:07.679 --> 0:10:11.040 these teams to win the division because this division's always close. 0:10:11.320 --> 0:10:14.520 This division, you will usually have three out of the 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:17.079 four teams and make it into the playoffs. If not 0:10:17.200 --> 0:10:19.480 two out of the four teams make it into the playoffs, 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.360 it's I think last year was the second time in 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:25.240 the last decade where the AFC North had two had 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:27.400 three teams go to the playoffs out of it. Now, 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:30.520 the Pittsburgh Steelers is a tough one because Ben Roethlisberger, 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:32.839 you have to wonder about his arm and his age. 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:35.400 But he looks good, he cuts down, he slimmed out. 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:39.120 I can't see Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin together in 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:42.280 Pittsburgh having a below eight hundred excuse me, a below 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:44.679 five hundred season. So I would say over eight and 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:46.600 a half wins for the Steelers would be the way 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:47.800 I would play this division. 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:50.120 I agree with that on the win total too. I 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:52.079 also think this Steelers are fascinating at the four to 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:55.240 twenty five because that's where you make your money, you know, 0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:57.840 if all of a sudden these injuries do pile up. 0:10:57.880 --> 0:10:59.760 I saw that Baban news like you did, right before 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:01.719 he came on, and I'm very high on Bateman and 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:03.920 Fantasy this year, and that kind of certainly throws a 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:06.679 little wrinkle in all of my hopeful projected plans for 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:09.080 that passing game. The Browns, You're right, are a bit 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:10.959 of an enigma, and the Browns will brown from time 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:13.600 to time the Steelers, you know, with naj Harris coming 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:16.640 back in. That's the problem is they again couldn't run 0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:18.760 the football, right, they become a one dimensional offense. 0:11:18.840 --> 0:11:20.719 What happens they Yeah, they can't get worse at the 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:22.439 run game, and the Ravens can't get worse at the 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:23.000 pass game. 0:11:23.320 --> 0:11:25.440 Yeah, maybe they could just combine all the rosters together 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:27.480 and then they'll have a really good chance at maybe 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:31.199 maybe beating the Chiefs. Maybe maybe Well we'll get to 0:11:31.280 --> 0:11:33.439 the Chiefs in a second. I want to talk to 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:36.000 you about this next division because in the South, the 0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:38.319 Titans are the clear favorites at minus one thirty four, 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:40.360 and I think they should be right now, especially with 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:42.920 what's going on right now with Carson Wentz. We're not 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:45.200 exactly sure when he's gonna come back, how that's gonna 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:48.320 work anyway, even if he was healthy. Still, like I said, 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:51.120 questions and like you were mentioning before, it seems like 0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:53.200 the Titans are just gonna run away. I'm actually surprised 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:55.600 that the numbers just minus one thirty four. I thought 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:57.559 this would be even greater. You got the Colts a 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:00.400 plus one to eighty, then the Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence 0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:03.000 and obviously that new regime with Evermyer coming in at 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:05.559 plus six hundred plus twenty eight hundred for the Texans. 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:07.920 Let's not even talk about the Texans. Okay, they do 0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:10.240 not deserve our attention. I don't care if Deshaun Watson plays, 0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:13.199 doesn't play, I don't care. As a terrible roster. So 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:15.760 really it's about the Titans number at minus one thirty four. 0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:18.440 To me, if you like the Titans, you gotta get 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:20.560 it on now, because I don't see this number as 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:23.040 you start to see them in preseason getting any better. 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:24.520 I think this is going to go into that minus 0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:27.320 two hundred range potentially, because I just think the rest 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.160 of this division is just clearly a step behind. Cults 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:32.160 are a good defensive team, but do you think that 0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:34.720 the Colts have any shot here if Carson Wentz does 0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:37.480 come back sooner on that timeline to compete for this 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:38.200 division at all? 0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:40.880 I do think the Colts have a chance to compete. 0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:43.200 The thing is, I wouldn't be betting the Colts right 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:46.120 now because you're still getting them, as you mentioned, at 0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:49.640 a pretty decent price and like it's short odds kind 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:52.559 of price, whereas the Titans minus one thirty four. It's 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:54.280 probably the best you're going to get them for now. 0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:57.400 If you get no Carson Wentz for the first let's 0:12:57.440 --> 0:13:00.840 say five weeks, like it says, of the season Carson 0:13:00.880 --> 0:13:02.880 Wentz being or excuse me, five to twelve weeks is 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:05.439 the label. So let's just say he's out the first 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:07.360 three games of the year. Four games of the year. 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:11.760 Carson Wentz's the Colts odds are gonna go much longer 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:15.240 if they lose two out of four games. You're gonna 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:17.720 want to wait for that better number on the Colts. 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:19.959 If you're gonna get them to lose the first few 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:22.439 games of the year. Now, I have to go look 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:24.240 back at their schedule and see how the end of 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:26.840 the season looks. But I'm pretty sure that the end 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:28.760 of the season for the Colts isn't as bad as 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:32.040 the beginning. The Colts are gonna lose early games anyway, 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:35.120 because from what I remember, they have to play really tough. 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:37.559 I'm pretty sure they get the Rams early on. I 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:39.520 don't know if you have the schedules pulled up, but 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:43.079 I probably should. I was looking at these schedules for 0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:44.760 the Colts and I thought, wow, like this is a 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:46.559 really tough start to the year for them. 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:48.880 I'm gonna bring it up. 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:51.000 Well, the start of the season begins with, yeah, the 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:54.959 the Rams, the Titans, and then that Dolphins defense and 0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:55.800 the Ravens. 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:57.400 De right, but you look at so now I haven't 0:13:57.400 --> 0:13:59.760 pulled up too So you start off with a really 0:13:59.840 --> 0:14:02.840 tough for five weeks. So at some point you're gonna 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:05.520 get a better number on the Colts that that's in 0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:07.800 that span. But look, the last five weeks of the 0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:12.679 year for the Colts, You've got Houston, New England, Arizona, Vegas, 0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:16.000 and Jacksonville. If you have your team healthy at that point, 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:18.040 and yes, maybe you could be in a hole, but 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:20.200 you are playing in the AFC South, which is one 0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:22.000 of the worst divisions in football. 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:24.120 The Tennessee Titans. 0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:27.960 You have four games against two teams that should finish 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.960 below five hundred. You've got Houston that you have to 0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:34.440 go up against, and Jacksonville. You could go and get 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.640 four wins like that in that division. So now you're 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.640 really just focusing. Yes, you have Tampa Bay tough, Buffalo tough. 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:43.280 There are really tough games on this schedule that Tennessee 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:46.160 also has to play against. That's why I could see 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:48.520 at the end of the year the Colts could make 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:50.840 a run. You're just gonna get better. You're gonna get 0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:53.840 a better number with better value on Indianapolis if you 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:55.760 wait for about week three or four. 0:14:56.240 --> 0:14:57.760 This is why I have you on the show, so 0:14:57.880 --> 0:14:59.880 you could say smart things like that to make everybody 0:15:00.120 --> 0:15:02.520 better better, which is a weird thing to say now 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:04.760 that I realized I just said a better better. All right, 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:06.440 let's move on to the West. Is it really anything 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:08.440 to say the Chiefs minus three thirty five. I mean, 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:10.560 you can't bet it, so forget it. There's nobody else. 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:12.960 I'm sorry, the Chargers, the Broncos, Raiders, forget it. So 0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:14.320 I'm not gonna waste anybody's time. 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:16.600 But I have to point something out to you. And 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:19.400 this is more going AFC broad picture. And I don't 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:21.520 think that this team's going to I don't think this 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:22.800 team is gonna win the AFC. 0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:23.840 That would just be crazy. 0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:27.040 The Vegas Raiders have been one of the sharpest teams 0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:29.480 that I've been hearing about. Even though I wouldn't bet 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:32.440 them to win the division. I would look to the Raiders' 0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:35.400 win total. There are a lot of really smart cappers 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:38.560 who I've heard betting on the Vegas Raiders over for 0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:42.000 their wins. And when I looked in the Futures Market Show, 0:15:42.000 --> 0:15:43.960 it was so it was so weird because we do 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:46.520 this segment called Market Movers on the morning after, we 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:48.840 look at how the markets moved from a time I 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:52.240 snapshoted it months prior to what the odds are now. 0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:55.680 When I was snapshotting the AFC odds back to about 0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:57.760 a month ago, I think it was like mid July. 0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:01.720 I snapshoted these odds of the AFC picture. The odds 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:04.360 were forty one to one for the Vegas Raiders to 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:07.840 win the AFC. Those odds moved to thirty seven to one. 0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:11.280 No one had odds move in their favor that significantly 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:14.160 to win the AFC more than the Vegas Raiders did. 0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:16.440 I mean, other teams had the line move in their favor, 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:18.680 but not that much forty one to one to thirty 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:20.680 seven to one. Even though again I don't think the 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:23.680 Vegas Raiders are going to win the conference, I do 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:26.360 see there being some value on Vegas to the over 0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:27.240 on their win total. 0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:30.120 Yeah, I would agree with that as well. And I'll 0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:32.560 tell you what I false. I also think it's going 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:34.520 to be a huge home field advantage of people don't 0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:37.640 realize yet that building. When you see it and you 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:39.720 kind of see and feel what Las Vegas could be 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:41.040 and how excited they would be, you didn't get to 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:43.360 see it last year, so at full capacity, if you 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:45.640 do get to that this season, which it seems like 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:47.760 we're going to be going towards that at least hopefully 0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:50.360 for now, Fingers crossed. That home field advantage for the 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:52.640 Raiders is what turns that win total, because if they 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:54.760 become a very good team at home, just like that 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:56.600 new building in Minnesota a couple years ago, and it 0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:58.400 was so loud, Right, what happened last year? All of 0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:00.640 a sudden that defense collapsed? Gee, I wonder what. Maybe 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:02.160 it's because I was on that volume went out of 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:03.520 the building and maybe they weren't as good as we 0:17:03.600 --> 0:17:06.040 thought they were. So I think that home field advantage 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:07.879 could be a really huge one for Las Vegas that 0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:08.800 we haven't seen yet. 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:11.520 All right, week one, though hopefully. 0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:13.639 After week well, of course, of course, I want to 0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:17.160 get your team out of there unscathed. AFC champion. Let's 0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:18.760 take a look at some of the favorites and the 0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:21.080 long shots. Now the favorites are clearly the Chiefs at 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:23.600 plus two fifty. Then you've got the Bills at plus 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:27.120