1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 2 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:19,440 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me joeyp Joe Pizipia. 3 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: And today officially kicks off what our NFL coverage. I 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:25,479 Speaker 1: know you've all been waiting for it. We've had so 5 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 1: much going on, Baseball, Olympics, so many things, But it's 6 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 1: a football season, that's right. Training camp is here and 7 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 1: from now on, I promise you we're gonna have a 8 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: whole lot more football talk the next month or so, 9 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: all leading up into the season, and of course in season, 10 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 1: we're gonna take you through everything you need to know 11 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 1: all week long in terms of the lines, where they're moving, 12 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 1: and where you want to place your bets. And of 13 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: course today we want to kick things off with our 14 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 1: AFC preview. We're gonna talk to you about the win totals, 15 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 1: the props, the division and also those conferences as well. 16 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:00,279 Speaker 1: Who we think might come out of that AFC And 17 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: of course those division winners are really important too. There 18 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 1: might be a few divisions that are really more up 19 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: for grabs than we might think. And of course there's 20 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 1: nobody better to talk about all this with the one 21 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: of my favorite people. She is a rising star or 22 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 1: maybe already a star on the Sports Grid network. You 23 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: see her every single morning for three full hours, and 24 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: you know what, that's not enough. On the morning after 25 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 1: you can catch on MSG as well, and of course 26 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: she's known to most as the prop Queen, but she's 27 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: everywhere rocking and rolling from the FanDuel Sports with five 28 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 1: days a week. Ariol Epstein, it is so nice to 29 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:32,839 Speaker 1: see your face and have you on the show today 30 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: to talk a little AFC preview with you. How are 31 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: you this fine afternoon, Joe piece Apia. 32 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 2: I am so excited to be here today. Also, I 33 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 2: had no idea when you invited me on that this 34 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 2: was going to be kicking off your NFL coverage. No pressure. 35 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 2: At least I don't have to go up against anyone 36 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 2: else's opinions yet, so that's good. I get to start 37 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: it off. 38 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 1: Maybe a little of mine, but who cares. A good 39 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: difference of opinion makes for good radio, for a good podcast, 40 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: for good TV. Steel sharpened steel areals. That's what it's 41 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: all about. It's about all of us getting some good 42 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: information and then letting everybody else go out there and 43 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 1: fish or whatever. The hell that used to be about. 44 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: So today, like I said, it's AFC time, so we're 45 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: gonna chat about that. And I know you are a 46 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:17,119 Speaker 1: Ravens fan, I'm a Patriots fan. Somehow, we will try 47 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 1: our best to coexist for the next half hours, So 48 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: make it all work. There have been some great battles 49 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: over the last few years or so for our teams. 50 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: But I want to start with the AFC East. And 51 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: obviously the Bills, who last year had quite a run, 52 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: came real close to the Super Bowl, fell a little short. 53 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 1: Josh Allen had a great season. They clearly are leading 54 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: things off here at minus one fifty five, and that 55 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,800 Speaker 1: is of course our betting consensus pros number. And for 56 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: all the betting consensus pros numbers, you go to bettingpros 57 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,519 Speaker 1: dot com and you could see where all the different 58 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: sports books are pushing you towards where the lines are, 59 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: where the values are as well. No surprise to see 60 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 1: the Bills at the top, then the Dolphins at plus 61 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:57,239 Speaker 1: three hundred, of course, my Patriots at plus three fifty, 62 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: and then the Jets, the lowly Jets at plus twenty 63 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 1: five hundred. So let's leave the Jets out of the equation. 64 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 1: They're so adorable, aren't they? The Jets trying to get 65 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: another quarterback? 66 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 3: They try? 67 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:08,639 Speaker 1: Don't you love it? Areo when they try to get 68 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: another quarterback every couple of years, And that's gonna be 69 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: the one. 70 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 2: Right, It's gonna be the line, especially, you know when 71 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 2: their passing yards drop is what thirty four hundred yards 72 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 2: or something like that. This year it's a mess. But 73 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 2: I do love their new head coach ravererts a lot. 74 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 2: I think that's Salad's gonna do a great job there. 75 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 2: It's just not going to be this year. 76 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: I agree one thousand percent. I'm a huge fan of him. 77 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,239 Speaker 1: Hopefully he give me a guy to finally gets. 78 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:32,079 Speaker 3: That's why you like him, right. 79 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 1: Well, I'm not gonna lie. That's a big part of it. 80 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 1: He's definitely handsome, obviously you could tell from that. So 81 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 1: let's talk about does anybody have a shot here in 82 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: this division besides Buffalo? Because the Dolphins did draft Jalen Waddell, 83 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: they did bring in Will Fuller. Last year was a 84 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: very difficult circumstance for Tua to really kind of develop. 85 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: The locker room was kind of against him, the injury 86 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: was against him. No preseason all that was against him. 87 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: Do the Dolphins have a chance here at plus three hundred, 88 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: or do the Patriots with all those players coming back 89 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: from COVID have a shot here? Or is it just 90 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: a foregone conclusion that the East belongs to Buffalo. 91 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 2: It is a foregone conclusion that the East belongs to Buffalo. 92 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 2: You're asking someone that has been constantly saying the next 93 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 2: curse to be broken is the Buffalo Bill's Super Bowl curse. 94 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 2: We have broken so many curses in sports in the 95 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 2: last few years, the Cubs, the Red Sox, the Capitals. 96 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 2: It is time for the Buffalo Bills to break the curse. 97 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 2: They just signed their quarterback Josh Allen to a huge 98 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 2: extension through twenty twenty seven. All the Bills have to 99 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 2: do is improve their defense. Two years ago, the Bill's 100 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,320 Speaker 2: defense was top ten in the league. Last year, they 101 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 2: weren't in that category, but their offense was top ten 102 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 2: in the league. If they can combine the two two 103 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 2: years ago and last year, the Bills are a Super 104 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 2: Bowl contender. Their head coach, Sean McDermott is a defensive 105 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 2: minded coach. 106 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 3: He was the defensive. 107 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 2: Coordinator in Carolina. If there's anyone they can get the 108 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,359 Speaker 2: job done in improving this defense. It's the defensive mind 109 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,359 Speaker 2: of Sean McDermott. The problem with the other teams in 110 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 2: this division is there's too much uncertainty. Tuatunguovailoa from Miami 111 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 2: last year, he was a turnover prone quarterback. He was 112 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 2: still a little bit shaky on his feet, and even 113 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 2: though they added to the receiver position, I'm still not 114 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 2: convinced that this Miami team is good enough to get 115 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:19,159 Speaker 2: through the division. Your Patriots are a team that's tough 116 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 2: for me to bet on because I don't know what's 117 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:23,720 Speaker 2: going to happen at quarterback. How long is Cam Newton 118 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 2: really going to stay under center, or are they going 119 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 2: to try to make the switch to Mac Jones midway 120 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 2: through the year. I don't want to bet on a 121 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 2: team that may be making a mid switch, a midyear 122 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 2: switch at quarterback. Even though Justin Herbert was the Rookie 123 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 2: of the Year last year for the Chargers and had 124 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 2: an amazing rookie season, he has all these veterans around him, 125 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 2: and it still wasn't enough to get the Chargers to 126 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 2: the playoffs. When they have a team like the Kansas 127 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 2: City Chiefs sitting at the top of their division. That's 128 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 2: how I feel about the Patriots and the Dolphins. Just 129 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 2: not enough experience. When you have this Bills team that's 130 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 2: now built playoff experience for the last two years, all 131 00:05:57,440 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 2: they really have to do. 132 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 3: Is zone in on that efense. 133 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: Well, I absolutely agree with you. It's Buffaloes to lose, 134 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 1: and I can't see putting money on the Dolphins or 135 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:08,920 Speaker 1: the Pats. Like you said, uncertainty is the biggest thing. Now. Look, 136 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,679 Speaker 1: these teams might end up in the playoffs, but winning 137 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 1: that division, eh. And I do think that secondary can 138 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: get back to where it was a couple of years 139 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:18,599 Speaker 1: ago for Buffalo. They were a fantastic group. They also 140 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 1: hit hard, which is nice. You don't see a lot 141 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: of secondaries that still hit people the way they do. 142 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 1: A little bit of intimidation factors good. They need a 143 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 1: little bit better play up front. 144 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 2: It's a little bit harder too, when you're in Buffalo 145 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 2: in December. The hit is just a little bit harder, 146 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 2: a little bit more. 147 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,159 Speaker 1: But that's also what hurts them On the offensive side. 148 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:35,799 Speaker 1: They don't run the football very well outside of Josh Allen. 149 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: That's the problem when you get to December. In January, 150 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:40,160 Speaker 1: you don't have a running game in Buffalo. It does 151 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: kind of come around to bite. You just go back 152 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: and look out close at Indianapolis, Colt's playoff game ended 153 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:46,799 Speaker 1: up becoming at the end because you can't run out clock. 154 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: That's an issue. You want to make sure you take 155 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 1: advantage of that weather. Now, I want to take advantage 156 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 1: of this division that we're gonna talk about next, because 157 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 1: this is the AFC North, and I know this is 158 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: very personal to you, but this is all business here 159 00:06:58,480 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: on the show. This is what we do at betting. 160 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 1: The Ravens are at the top somehow betting consensus plus 161 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: one twenty the Cleveland Browns, that's right, the Cleveland Browns 162 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: plus one forty five, the Steelers at plus four to 163 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 1: twenty five, and the Bengals all the way at twenty 164 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: to one. Bengals still work in progress. Will leave them alone. 165 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 1: Hopefully Joe Burrow gets his knee right and his confidence back, 166 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: and they'll just fun to watch from a fantasy perspective. 167 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 1: But all of a sudden, it's a little different dynamic 168 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: that we're starting to see. All of a sudden, the 169 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns, the depth of the Browns, the defense of 170 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: the Browns, the running game of the Browns. All that 171 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: looks really good. So are you confident that the Ravens 172 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: can take a step forward offensively and start to throw 173 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 1: the ball a little bit more, become a little bit 174 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 1: more of a diverse offense or do you think maybe, 175 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 1: just maybe, the Browns have a real shot at this thing. 176 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: I know that's a loaded question, but I ask it anyway. 177 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 2: The Browns on paper should have a shot at this thing. 178 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 2: The problem is that they're the Browns. Even though last 179 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 2: year they still had a good season. I'm concerned about 180 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 2: what's going to happen with the mental cases on this team. 181 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 2: You have Odell Beckham Junior and Jarvis Landry granted Odell's 182 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 2: back from tearing his ACL Baker Mayfield another head case, 183 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 2: and then you have the defensive side to Davion Clowney 184 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 2: who can't stay healthy. And you have Miles Garrett, who, Okay, 185 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 2: he's one of the best defensive players in the NFL. 186 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 2: I'm still concerned. I love this Browns team on paper, 187 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 2: I just can't put money on them. There's too much, again, 188 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 2: uncertainty when it comes to consistency and the Browns. To me, 189 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 2: I just can't rely on They just can't win the 190 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 2: big game. They can't get past the Ravens, and they 191 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 2: can't get past the Steelers. To be honest, they always 192 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 2: keep it close. Can they take the next can they 193 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 2: take the next step? AFC North is really tough to handicap, 194 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 2: because you're right, the Ravens are a team that even 195 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:49,319 Speaker 2: though they've added young wide receivers, they added Sammy Watkins, 196 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 2: another player that can't stay on the field for more 197 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 2: than half a season. I wish the bout half a quarter, 198 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 2: half a corner right. Tammy Watkins is so tough to 199 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,719 Speaker 2: watch play. And then today, the day that we're recording this, 200 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,719 Speaker 2: Rashad Bateman, their rookie wide receiver out of Minnesota, is 201 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 2: limping off the field after going up for a ball 202 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 2: at practice. If the Ravens can't stay healthy him, mean 203 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 2: this thing is over. But apparently Mark Andrews and Lamar 204 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 2: still have a good dynamic, which I'm not surprised by. 205 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 2: The problem is last year, it's hard to judge because 206 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,839 Speaker 2: the Ravens didn't really have camp, they didn't have much 207 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 2: of a summer, and that was really the year that 208 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 2: they needed Lamar Jackson to excel in the passing game. 209 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 2: The good thing the Ravens can't get worse at the 210 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 2: path or the worst pass offense in the NFL last year. 211 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 2: It really can't get worse. They can only go up. 212 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 2: The Ravens can improve this passing game if Bateman stays 213 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,839 Speaker 2: healthy on the field, if Sammy Watkins can play a 214 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 2: few games, and if Hollywood Brown can somehow get better, 215 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 2: and we showed we saw glimpses of it last year 216 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,719 Speaker 2: towards the end of the season. I'm just hoping that 217 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:53,679 Speaker 2: Bateman can challenge Hollywood. On the other side, I'm not 218 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 2: betting anything in this division, and I know that that's 219 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 2: hard to say because I'm here on a show trying 220 00:09:58,360 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 2: to give out picks. But the one thing I would 221 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 2: do is it actually like the Steelers over eight and 222 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:04,959 Speaker 2: a half wins, I would go more win total in 223 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 2: the AFC North than I would for betting any of 224 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 2: these teams to win the division because this division's always close. 225 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 2: This division, you will usually have three out of the 226 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,079 Speaker 2: four teams and make it into the playoffs. If not 227 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 2: two out of the four teams make it into the playoffs, 228 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 2: it's I think last year was the second time in 229 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 2: the last decade where the AFC North had two had 230 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 2: three teams go to the playoffs out of it. Now, 231 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh Steelers is a tough one because Ben Roethlisberger, 232 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:32,839 Speaker 2: you have to wonder about his arm and his age. 233 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 2: But he looks good, he cuts down, he slimmed out. 234 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 2: I can't see Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin together in 235 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 2: Pittsburgh having a below eight hundred excuse me, a below 236 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,679 Speaker 2: five hundred season. So I would say over eight and 237 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 2: a half wins for the Steelers would be the way 238 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 2: I would play this division. 239 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: I agree with that on the win total too. I 240 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,079 Speaker 1: also think this Steelers are fascinating at the four to 241 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: twenty five because that's where you make your money, you know, 242 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:57,840 Speaker 1: if all of a sudden these injuries do pile up. 243 00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: I saw that Baban news like you did, right before 244 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:01,719 Speaker 1: he came on, and I'm very high on Bateman and 245 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 1: Fantasy this year, and that kind of certainly throws a 246 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,679 Speaker 1: little wrinkle in all of my hopeful projected plans for 247 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 1: that passing game. The Browns, You're right, are a bit 248 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:10,959 Speaker 1: of an enigma, and the Browns will brown from time 249 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 1: to time the Steelers, you know, with naj Harris coming 250 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 1: back in. That's the problem is they again couldn't run 251 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: the football, right, they become a one dimensional offense. 252 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:20,719 Speaker 2: What happens they Yeah, they can't get worse at the 253 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 2: run game, and the Ravens can't get worse at the 254 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 2: pass game. 255 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe they could just combine all the rosters together 256 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 1: and then they'll have a really good chance at maybe 257 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,199 Speaker 1: maybe beating the Chiefs. Maybe maybe Well we'll get to 258 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,439 Speaker 1: the Chiefs in a second. I want to talk to 259 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: you about this next division because in the South, the 260 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:38,319 Speaker 1: Titans are the clear favorites at minus one thirty four, 261 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: and I think they should be right now, especially with 262 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 1: what's going on right now with Carson Wentz. We're not 263 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 1: exactly sure when he's gonna come back, how that's gonna 264 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,320 Speaker 1: work anyway, even if he was healthy. Still, like I said, 265 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 1: questions and like you were mentioning before, it seems like 266 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:53,200 Speaker 1: the Titans are just gonna run away. I'm actually surprised 267 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 1: that the numbers just minus one thirty four. I thought 268 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 1: this would be even greater. You got the Colts a 269 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: plus one to eighty, then the Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence 270 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: and obviously that new regime with Evermyer coming in at 271 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 1: plus six hundred plus twenty eight hundred for the Texans. 272 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: Let's not even talk about the Texans. Okay, they do 273 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: not deserve our attention. I don't care if Deshaun Watson plays, 274 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 1: doesn't play, I don't care. As a terrible roster. So 275 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 1: really it's about the Titans number at minus one thirty four. 276 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 1: To me, if you like the Titans, you gotta get 277 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 1: it on now, because I don't see this number as 278 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: you start to see them in preseason getting any better. 279 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 1: I think this is going to go into that minus 280 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 1: two hundred range potentially, because I just think the rest 281 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 1: of this division is just clearly a step behind. Cults 282 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 1: are a good defensive team, but do you think that 283 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 1: the Colts have any shot here if Carson Wentz does 284 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 1: come back sooner on that timeline to compete for this 285 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 1: division at all? 286 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 3: I do think the Colts have a chance to compete. 287 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,200 Speaker 2: The thing is, I wouldn't be betting the Colts right 288 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 2: now because you're still getting them, as you mentioned, at 289 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 2: a pretty decent price and like it's short odds kind 290 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,559 Speaker 2: of price, whereas the Titans minus one thirty four. It's 291 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 2: probably the best you're going to get them for now. 292 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 2: If you get no Carson Wentz for the first let's 293 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 2: say five weeks, like it says, of the season Carson 294 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 2: Wentz being or excuse me, five to twelve weeks is 295 00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:05,439 Speaker 2: the label. So let's just say he's out the first 296 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 2: three games of the year. Four games of the year. 297 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 2: Carson Wentz's the Colts odds are gonna go much longer 298 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 2: if they lose two out of four games. You're gonna 299 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 2: want to wait for that better number on the Colts. 300 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:19,959 Speaker 2: If you're gonna get them to lose the first few 301 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,439 Speaker 2: games of the year. Now, I have to go look 302 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 2: back at their schedule and see how the end of 303 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 2: the season looks. But I'm pretty sure that the end 304 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 2: of the season for the Colts isn't as bad as 305 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 2: the beginning. The Colts are gonna lose early games anyway, 306 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 2: because from what I remember, they have to play really tough. 307 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:37,559 Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure they get the Rams early on. I 308 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 2: don't know if you have the schedules pulled up, but 309 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:43,079 Speaker 2: I probably should. I was looking at these schedules for 310 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 2: the Colts and I thought, wow, like this is a 311 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:46,559 Speaker 2: really tough start to the year for them. 312 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 3: I'm gonna bring it up. 313 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 1: Well, the start of the season begins with, yeah, the 314 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:54,959 Speaker 1: the Rams, the Titans, and then that Dolphins defense and 315 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 1: the Ravens. 316 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 2: De right, but you look at so now I haven't 317 00:13:57,400 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 2: pulled up too So you start off with a really 318 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 2: tough for five weeks. So at some point you're gonna 319 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 2: get a better number on the Colts that that's in 320 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 2: that span. But look, the last five weeks of the 321 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:12,679 Speaker 2: year for the Colts, You've got Houston, New England, Arizona, Vegas, 322 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 2: and Jacksonville. If you have your team healthy at that point, 323 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 2: and yes, maybe you could be in a hole, but 324 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,200 Speaker 2: you are playing in the AFC South, which is one 325 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 2: of the worst divisions in football. 326 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 3: The Tennessee Titans. 327 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 2: You have four games against two teams that should finish 328 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 2: below five hundred. You've got Houston that you have to 329 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 2: go up against, and Jacksonville. You could go and get 330 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 2: four wins like that in that division. So now you're 331 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 2: really just focusing. Yes, you have Tampa Bay tough, Buffalo tough. 332 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 2: There are really tough games on this schedule that Tennessee 333 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 2: also has to play against. That's why I could see 334 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 2: at the end of the year the Colts could make 335 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 2: a run. You're just gonna get better. You're gonna get 336 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 2: a better number with better value on Indianapolis if you 337 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 2: wait for about week three or four. 338 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: This is why I have you on the show, so 339 00:14:57,880 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: you could say smart things like that to make everybody 340 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 1: better better, which is a weird thing to say now 341 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 1: that I realized I just said a better better. All right, 342 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: let's move on to the West. Is it really anything 343 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: to say the Chiefs minus three thirty five. I mean, 344 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: you can't bet it, so forget it. There's nobody else. 345 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, the Chargers, the Broncos, Raiders, forget it. So 346 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna waste anybody's time. 347 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 2: But I have to point something out to you. And 348 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 2: this is more going AFC broad picture. And I don't 349 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 2: think that this team's going to I don't think this 350 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 2: team is gonna win the AFC. 351 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 3: That would just be crazy. 352 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 2: The Vegas Raiders have been one of the sharpest teams 353 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,480 Speaker 2: that I've been hearing about. Even though I wouldn't bet 354 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 2: them to win the division. I would look to the Raiders' 355 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 2: win total. There are a lot of really smart cappers 356 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 2: who I've heard betting on the Vegas Raiders over for 357 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 2: their wins. And when I looked in the Futures Market Show, 358 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 2: it was so it was so weird because we do 359 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 2: this segment called Market Movers on the morning after, we 360 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 2: look at how the markets moved from a time I 361 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 2: snapshoted it months prior to what the odds are now. 362 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 2: When I was snapshotting the AFC odds back to about 363 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 2: a month ago, I think it was like mid July. 364 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 2: I snapshoted these odds of the AFC picture. The odds 365 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 2: were forty one to one for the Vegas Raiders to 366 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 2: win the AFC. Those odds moved to thirty seven to one. 367 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 2: No one had odds move in their favor that significantly 368 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 2: to win the AFC more than the Vegas Raiders did. 369 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 2: I mean, other teams had the line move in their favor, 370 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 2: but not that much forty one to one to thirty 371 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 2: seven to one. Even though again I don't think the 372 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 2: Vegas Raiders are going to win the conference, I do 373 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 2: see there being some value on Vegas to the over 374 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 2: on their win total. 375 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree with that as well. And I'll 376 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 1: tell you what I false. I also think it's going 377 00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: to be a huge home field advantage of people don't 378 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: realize yet that building. When you see it and you 379 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 1: kind of see and feel what Las Vegas could be 380 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 1: and how excited they would be, you didn't get to 381 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 1: see it last year, so at full capacity, if you 382 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: do get to that this season, which it seems like 383 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: we're going to be going towards that at least hopefully 384 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 1: for now, Fingers crossed. That home field advantage for the 385 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 1: Raiders is what turns that win total, because if they 386 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 1: become a very good team at home, just like that 387 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: new building in Minnesota a couple years ago, and it 388 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 1: was so loud, Right, what happened last year? All of 389 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 1: a sudden that defense collapsed? Gee, I wonder what. Maybe 390 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 1: it's because I was on that volume went out of 391 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 1: the building and maybe they weren't as good as we 392 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 1: thought they were. So I think that home field advantage 393 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:07,879 Speaker 1: could be a really huge one for Las Vegas that 394 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: we haven't seen yet. 395 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 3: All right, week one, though hopefully. 396 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 1: After week well, of course, of course, I want to 397 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:17,160 Speaker 1: get your team out of there unscathed. AFC champion. Let's 398 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 1: take a look at some of the favorites and the 399 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 1: long shots. Now the favorites are clearly the Chiefs at 400 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 1: plus two fifty. Then you've got the Bills at plus 401 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:27,120 Speaker 1: five fifty, the Ravens at plus six fifty, and the Browns, yes, 402 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,880 Speaker 1: their favorites still plus seven to fifty. I'm gonna say 403 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 1: it anyway, any other money you want to put anywhere 404 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 1: but the Chiefs on some of these other favorites, because 405 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,439 Speaker 1: I personally think the Bills have a really good shot here. 406 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:40,120 Speaker 1: I like the plus five to fifty on them. 407 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 3: I love the Buffalo Bills. Told you, I'm I. 408 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: We both look at us coming together on the Bills. 409 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 3: I love the Bills. 410 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 2: I'm right there with you at the Bills to have 411 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 2: the most value at plus five to fifty. 412 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:51,639 Speaker 3: To win the AFC. 413 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 2: I even love the Bills to win the Super Bowl 414 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 2: at ten to one. I loved this last year. I 415 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 2: even said last year when I was giving out my 416 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 2: win totals, it was until this year where the book's 417 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 2: finally caught up to us. Buffalo has been so underbooked 418 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 2: for the last three years that I can't last year. 419 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,159 Speaker 2: I remember this specifically because I did this whole like 420 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 2: COVID video thing where I was given out win totals 421 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:14,160 Speaker 2: in COVID. 422 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 3: I was so bored. I was editing. 423 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:23,200 Speaker 2: All these random videos and I remember specifically because the 424 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:26,199 Speaker 2: Buffalo Bill's win total last year was I. 425 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 3: Want to say nine, not like around that range. Then 426 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 3: I said in the. 427 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 2: Video, Okay, the Bills hit their first of all went 428 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,640 Speaker 2: over that year prior anyway, But the Bills hit their 429 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 2: win total of I'm pretty sure it was like six 430 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 2: and a half, seven and a half two years ago 431 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 2: by Thanksgiving. And I remember saying that because when I 432 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,639 Speaker 2: did that research, I couldn't believe that the Bills hit 433 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,679 Speaker 2: their win total two years ago by Thanksgiving and they 434 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 2: went over that nine win so easily. Let two years 435 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 2: ago that I couldn't believe last year's win total was 436 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 2: still just the nine and a half. I bet the 437 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,400 Speaker 2: over and it ended up hitting. This year, they caught 438 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 2: up to us, and they're one of the best teams 439 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 2: in the AFC. Rightfully, so I still believe that the 440 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs, Now, you're gonna tell me they're gonna 441 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 2: go three straight Super Bowls. I mean that's a lot. 442 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:15,640 Speaker 2: This is wide open in the AFC. Someone's coming out 443 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 2: of it. I know it's not going to be the Chiefs. 444 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 2: I'm just willing to say that the Chiefs are not 445 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 2: making the Super Bowl for a third straight year. This 446 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:23,920 Speaker 2: is the same team. 447 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 1: It's very difficult to teach. 448 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 2: Much except the offensive line. It's the same team that 449 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 2: we've seen when it comes to skills players for the 450 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,400 Speaker 2: last few years. I'm gonna say someone else is coming 451 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 2: out of this division. It's just a matter of which 452 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 2: defense out of the AFC is. 453 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:38,640 Speaker 3: Going to be the best. 454 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 1: Well, I think you also got some clarity last year 455 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: because I think you saw the deficits of the Bills 456 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: and I think they realized what they needed to work on. 457 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,199 Speaker 1: But you also saw a team like Cleveland go hey, 458 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 1: we can hang with this team. I think that builds confidence. 459 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 1: Even though they lost. I feel like you kind of 460 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 1: come away going, well, maybe we're better than we realized 461 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: and we're actually should be. In this conversation, look if 462 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson plays up like a said, to his abilities 463 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 1: and also people forget it, he was a good pocket 464 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 1: passer in college. The offensive lines that really built for 465 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 1: pass protection is built for running. So that's gonna be 466 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 1: a fascinating evolution. But like you said, and we were 467 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 1: talking about before. It's about the health. If the health 468 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:15,919 Speaker 1: of the wide receiving corep isn't there, then we're right 469 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: back to where we used to be, which is predictable. 470 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:19,360 Speaker 1: I think that build A plus five fifty is where 471 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 1: I want to go. But you know what, that's no fun. 472 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:24,200 Speaker 1: Those are favorites. Let's talk about the long shots. Let's 473 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 1: go with the Titans plus thirteen hundred, the Patriots plus fifteen. 474 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: The Dolphins are at plus fifteen, the Chargers at plus sixteen. 475 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:32,879 Speaker 1: It's all about the Titans. For me, I'm drinking the 476 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 1: kool aid. It's music City. I'm here for it. I 477 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 1: love what they did. Add in Julio Jones. I don't 478 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 1: think people realize how devastating that combination of those two 479 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 1: wide receivers going to be. Bud Dupree is an incredible 480 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,440 Speaker 1: pass rusher. Also, they're not giving enough credit to that move. 481 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 1: I understand there's still deficits on the defensive side, but 482 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:57,399 Speaker 1: can I sell you on Ryan Tannehill, Mike Rabel, Derrick 483 00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 1: Henry and this group of wide receivers of Age Brown 484 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,680 Speaker 1: and Julio Jones being this team maybe that people don't 485 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 1: realize is going to come through and just whoop on everybody, 486 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 1: get hot at the right time and go all the 487 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 1: way to the super Bowl. 488 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 3: You can sell me on it. 489 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 2: This team has proven they can get there. Coaching is everything. 490 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 2: That's what scares me a bit with the Browns too, 491 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 2: because they won a playoff game without a head coach 492 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,879 Speaker 2: and then they ended up having their head coach and loseig. 493 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:24,439 Speaker 3: I mean, like, what's the problem here. 494 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 2: So for me to see that Tennessee has their head coach, 495 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 2: mec Brabel, who was able to out coach Bill Belichick 496 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 2: in a playoff game, It's that alone is impressive. But 497 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 2: then you look at this team who defensively they were 498 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 2: able to play up two years ago and that's what 499 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 2: got them to where they did an the AFC Championship game. 500 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 2: And then for the new wide receivers coming in where 501 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 2: you have one of the best wide receivers coming over 502 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 2: from Atlanta and Julio Jones and you have him alongside 503 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 2: some top notch receivers. Oh, and you're running back Derrick 504 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,680 Speaker 2: Henry and then you have that guy, Yeah, that guy. 505 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 2: And Ryan Tannehill has proven himself to be a to 506 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,800 Speaker 2: be a reliable quarterback and his completion percentage in the 507 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 2: playoffs has been fine. He hasn't done anything to throw. 508 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,120 Speaker 2: He hasn't done anything to make me believe that he's 509 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,480 Speaker 2: not the quarterback that can get them there. I do 510 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 2: believe out of all these teams that you were listing, 511 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 2: that the Tennessee Titans are that long shot at thirteen 512 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 2: to one to win the AFC because they have the 513 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 2: opportunity to be the most well rounded team. The real 514 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 2: question is special teams. Did they improve special teams from 515 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 2: last year? Because last year, watching Goskowski and watching this 516 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 2: team continue to blow games because they can't get special 517 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,880 Speaker 2: teams right, that's gonna be the difference. This Tennessee team 518 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 2: last year could have had three more wins at least 519 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 2: if they were able to make field goals. 520 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 1: Now, the special teams were absolutely atrocious for that team. 521 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:47,640 Speaker 1: And you're right, it all is all about coaching. That's 522 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:49,159 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, gonna have all the 523 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 1: talent on a roster you want in the NFL. If 524 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 1: you don't have the coaching, you don't have the schemes, 525 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 1: you don't have the game plan, the adjustment, you're not 526 00:22:55,320 --> 00:23:01,359 Speaker 1: going to be the team. Belichick. Andy Reid, Right, Andy 527 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 1: Reid is a coach who historically doesn't make good adjustments. 528 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 1: Bill Belichick is the king of adjustments. That's why he 529 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 1: ends up winning games so often. And I think when 530 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 1: you look at the other coaches, the great coaches in 531 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 1: the last twenty thirty years, those are the guys that 532 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 1: are able to go in there and say, Okay, this 533 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,439 Speaker 1: was our game plan, it's not working. Let's do this instead. 534 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 1: Because they came out with that, and it's that second 535 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 1: half adjustment. I think variable is a tremendous coach. I 536 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,160 Speaker 1: think you're right, and that's why I love this number. 537 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 1: So for me, you get a little bit of the Bills, 538 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 1: maybe with a smaller you know, with a bigger wager, 539 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,480 Speaker 1: a little bit you're holding hands together running through the 540 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 1: meadow on the AFC. Let's go Bills and Titans is 541 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,320 Speaker 1: gonna beautiful. I'm all about this, And I'm glad because 542 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,400 Speaker 1: I was very excited to talk about the Titans today 543 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 1: and I'm glad that somebody else besides me is excited 544 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,880 Speaker 1: about them. And like I said, drinking the kool aid, 545 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 1: let's get to some of the win totals that you 546 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,680 Speaker 1: mentioned before, because obviously there's some really good ones out there. 547 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 1: Let's start with the Ravens. The number is eleven plus 548 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 1: one hundred on the over, minus one twenty on the under. 549 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 1: You want to go over under on this eleven or 550 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:03,199 Speaker 1: stay away from the Ravens? Eleven? 551 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 3: Why do you do this to me? 552 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,679 Speaker 1: Because I'm fun, because I'm well? Then you could say pass. 553 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 1: You could say pass. Honestly, eleven sounds like a good number, 554 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 1: and that can pay vision numbers. I wouldn't bet it. 555 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 1: I would walk away from it. Sometimes the best advice 556 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 1: is don't bet. You know that. 557 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 3: No, I know, I don't. 558 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 2: I don't bet my own team. I'm just one of 559 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 2: those people. I won't even throw a dollar. 560 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 1: I bet against my own team. 561 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 3: It's called hedge. 562 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 1: That's what I do. Exact. Oh, hiding your happiness. I've 563 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:32,160 Speaker 1: never heard anyone cool. 564 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 3: That's what I call it. I love that happiness. 565 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 1: Can I do that in life? Can I huge my happiness? 566 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:38,160 Speaker 3: Of course? 567 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,680 Speaker 2: So here's the thing, Like, I do this all the time. 568 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 2: And actually it was my favorite thing to do two 569 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 2: years ago at the Ravens. Didn't work out as much 570 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 2: last year. Two years ago my favorite thing to do 571 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,400 Speaker 2: because the Ravens were always the team that scored first. 572 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,959 Speaker 2: They were the best first quarter team in football two 573 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 2: years ago. I would go wait for the live opportunity 574 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,119 Speaker 2: for the Ravens to score in the first quarter, and 575 00:24:58,240 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 2: then I would take the points with the other team, 576 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 2: not asking for the Ravens to lose. 577 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 3: I was just saying that they're not going to cover 578 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:04,439 Speaker 3: this double digit spread. 579 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:08,119 Speaker 2: Usually the Ravens are favored by six seven points, so 580 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 2: I would end up waiting for it to hit about 581 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 2: ten because the Ravens scored early in the first quarter, 582 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,200 Speaker 2: and take the points with the opposite team. Ravens hopefully win, 583 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,679 Speaker 2: but the opposite team ends up covering, and I end 584 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 2: up hedging my happiness. 585 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,639 Speaker 1: I love it. Let's head your happiness with the Buffalo Bills. 586 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:25,080 Speaker 1: Eleven over under is the number plus one hundred on 587 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 1: the over minus one twenty on the under. I'm going 588 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,159 Speaker 1: over on this. Your thoughts, that's my lean right now. 589 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going over because how do I not go 590 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:33,919 Speaker 2: over when I say that this team's going to win 591 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 2: the AFC. 592 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 3: I also wouldn't be surprises. 593 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 1: Money, Ariel. Don't forget about the plus money side on 594 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:40,440 Speaker 1: the over too, which I'm actually kind of surprised about. 595 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 3: Oh, I do like the plus money on that over. 596 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 3: I'm looking at their schedule. 597 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,640 Speaker 2: Now Buffalo, they have to face the NFC East, which 598 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:49,119 Speaker 2: is great, that's awesome. 599 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 3: But I mean they face Washington, so that's good. 600 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,640 Speaker 2: They have to face let's see, they get the Jets, 601 00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,119 Speaker 2: which is great because you know you had Jets twice. 602 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 2: You get your jack you get the Jack Wars this year, 603 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,119 Speaker 2: the Patriots, the Saints that aren't that daunting. 604 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 3: So they're facing the NFC South. 605 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, I actually could see this being 606 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 2: an over because I'm looking at these games. Pittsburgh they 607 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,680 Speaker 2: should win at home. Kansas City is a tough game 608 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 2: Week five, that's in Kansas City. They'll probably lose that game, 609 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:19,879 Speaker 2: but if they win that game, that's huge. 610 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 3: Then they have money. 611 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 2: They actually have two really tough games back to back 612 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:24,879 Speaker 2: Kansas City Tennessee, but then they have a bye to 613 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 2: look forward to, which is really helpful because they could 614 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 2: say we'll make it through these two games, we go 615 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 2: to the bye, and. 616 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 3: Then everything after that's really easy. 617 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 2: Aside for Tampa Bay, I say that loosely because it's 618 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 2: the NFL, but realistically, you look at the next half 619 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,160 Speaker 2: of their schedule. In the second half off the bye. 620 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,360 Speaker 2: It's really an easy schedule for Buffalo. I would take 621 00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 2: the over on their win total for sure. 622 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:45,959 Speaker 1: And we have to adjust our brains too, because it's 623 00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,159 Speaker 1: a seventeen game season now. And that's the thing. I 624 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 1: think people see these old numbers and they're still It's 625 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 1: not that they forget it, but they're not really equating 626 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 1: it properly, whether it comes to the totals for the 627 00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,639 Speaker 1: players or whether it comes for the win tis to say, well, 628 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:00,439 Speaker 1: it's only one more game, but you know it makes 629 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,160 Speaker 1: a difference. Eleven's kind of low in a seventeen game season, 630 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 1: actually for a team that we have expectations for, like 631 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 1: we do the Buffalo Bills. All right, let's go with 632 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:09,920 Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns. Here. Ten and a half is the 633 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,440 Speaker 1: number for them. The over is minus one oh five, 634 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 1: the unders one to fifteen. This one's tricky, all the volatility, 635 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 1: all the characters, if you will, in Cleveland. Can they 636 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 1: all put it together and get to that eleven mark, 637 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 1: because that's what they'd have to do to go over. 638 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 1: Where your thoughts on this number for Cleveland. 639 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 2: I just automatically, without looking at the schedule, want to 640 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,480 Speaker 2: fade Cleveland because everyone is always public on Cleveland. 641 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 3: The public always wants to back this team. 642 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 2: This is a division in the AFC Nord that has 643 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 2: one of the toughest division schedules in football. The Steelers 644 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 2: actually have the hardest schedule in football this year, and 645 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure the Ravens are second toughest, which means 646 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 2: the Browns have to be up there too because they're 647 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 2: going to play the same opposite conference. 648 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:50,840 Speaker 3: There are same divisions. 649 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 2: Now, they have a game against the Chiefs right off 650 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,560 Speaker 2: the bat in Arrowhead, which again a bunch of head 651 00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 2: cases on this Browns team. You'll lose that game in 652 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 2: Arrowhead and you're going to be oh no 'or Onhing one. 653 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,480 Speaker 2: How does this team bounce back? But then they have 654 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:08,119 Speaker 2: some pretty easy games. They have Houston Chicago, but defensively 655 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,600 Speaker 2: Chicago could be tough. Minnesota maybe they're better. But the 656 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,879 Speaker 2: first half's not that bad for Cleveland. It's gonna be 657 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,480 Speaker 2: down the stretch. Cleveland schedule is not that bad. Honestly, 658 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 2: then I'm looking at it. 659 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:21,920 Speaker 1: Well they I mean, it's a very tough division. This 660 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 1: is the this is the hyper competitive division in the AFC. 661 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,200 Speaker 1: You know what, if you handle your business against the 662 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:31,080 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh or not. You handle your business against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, 663 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 1: then I think this is an over. If you struggle 664 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh, I think this is gonna be. 665 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,359 Speaker 2: Here's why I think it's an under because I think 666 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 2: that the book is being I think the book's undervaluing Pittsburgh. 667 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 2: I still see a lot of value on Pittsburgh. The 668 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 2: run game can't get worse. The only real issue in 669 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,840 Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is who's stepping up in defense, because, as you 670 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,200 Speaker 2: mentioned earlier, they lost some of their key linebackers. If 671 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 2: the Steelers defense can be what it normally is a 672 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 2: top ten unit, it's supposed to have the second best 673 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 2: front seven in football this year according to Warren Sharp. 674 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 2: If that's the case, Pittsburgh is gonna have over eight 675 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 2: and a half wins, which means, my guess, based on 676 00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 2: how the book is handling this, giving the Browns two 677 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 2: more wins than the Steelers, at least one of those 678 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 2: games is getting split. I mean one of those games 679 00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,080 Speaker 2: going to Pittsburgh. At least, I'm gonna say under for 680 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 2: the Browns win total. Even though the schedule isn't that 681 00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 2: daunting now that I look at it, it's still a 682 00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 2: tough division, and I'm very curious to see how this 683 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,960 Speaker 2: offense does against some top notch defenses, like if Minnesota 684 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 2: or Chicago are improved. 685 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,120 Speaker 1: All right, let's have some fun here. How about the Texans. 686 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 1: The numbers four. Again, it's a seventeen game season, so 687 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 1: the four sounds I know, what's minus one forty on 688 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:43,160 Speaker 1: the over, plus one twenty on the under. See, to me, 689 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 1: this is all about if Deshaun Watson plays or now 690 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 1: Shaw Watson plays. Obviously it's no but if you believe 691 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,960 Speaker 1: that somehow that's just not gonna happen, you hammer this 692 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 1: under because they are just atrocious. This is possibly the 693 00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,480 Speaker 1: worst roster in football that I've seen in quite some time. 694 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 1: And again taking off the frank quarterback from it does 695 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 1: not make it better. So anything here for you with 696 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 1: the four number. 697 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:07,840 Speaker 2: I would go under for Houston's four and a half 698 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,240 Speaker 2: because they were four and twelve last year with Deshaun 699 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 2: Watson at quarterback. 700 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 3: Now you're gonna have a Taradre Taylor. 701 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,520 Speaker 2: It's we've seen for the last two years that the 702 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 2: worst team in football has had one win. I mean Cincinnati, Jacksonville. 703 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 2: I could see the Houston Texans being that team, And honestly, 704 00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,600 Speaker 2: why not if Watson's not going to be there, which 705 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,880 Speaker 2: by the way, he's not traveling to the preseason game. 706 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 2: If Watson's not going to be in Houston and they're 707 00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,560 Speaker 2: going to try to trade him, then go for a 708 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 2: number one quarterback. Go for your next franchise quarterback. Let 709 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,040 Speaker 2: your team stink this year and find someone out of 710 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,080 Speaker 2: the college ranks who you can go and draft with 711 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:44,080 Speaker 2: the first overall pick. 712 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 1: Last one here, let's see the Dolphins. Nine and a 713 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,960 Speaker 1: half is the number. The over is plus one fifteen, 714 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 1: the unders minus one thirty five. This is really about 715 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 1: the development of Tua. Can he get to that next level? 716 00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:59,000 Speaker 1: And like we said before, we were talking about everything 717 00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 1: that could possibly be against him last year was so 718 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 1: this is a full regular, healthy offseason, a full regular 719 00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 1: preseason for him. Can they get to this level? Because 720 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,479 Speaker 1: that was a very competitive team. The Dolphins were very 721 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 1: competitive in all of their games. They were a team 722 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,120 Speaker 1: that really showed up to play defensively as well. The 723 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,240 Speaker 1: offensive line still in question, but they did add some 724 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,080 Speaker 1: more talent in the wide receiver corps. Is that enough 725 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 1: here to help kind of pull two along in year two? 726 00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 1: In the NFL and maybe pull them over nine and 727 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 1: a half or is this an easy under. 728 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:31,040 Speaker 3: I wouldn't say it's an easy under. 729 00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,160 Speaker 2: I could see this one going over because the nine 730 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,600 Speaker 2: and a half is still below where this team was 731 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,080 Speaker 2: last year. Last year was a ten win team and 732 00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,280 Speaker 2: that was only sixteen game season, and now we're going 733 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,440 Speaker 2: to go to seventeen. You still again have to factor 734 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 2: in that extra game. I could see that extra game 735 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,360 Speaker 2: helping Miami get over the nine and a half wins. 736 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 2: The problem is that they are going up against certain 737 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,120 Speaker 2: teams like the Giants, who I could see being a 738 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,440 Speaker 2: better defense than people are giving them credit for. It 739 00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,600 Speaker 2: was a top ten defense last year. Carolina also could 740 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:01,840 Speaker 2: be improved. They were a young defense last season, but 741 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 2: still improved. And Sam Darnold maybe and he knows Miami. 742 00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 2: So looking at who these who they have to play. 743 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 2: Of course, Buffalo is gonna be their toughest competition and 744 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:15,480 Speaker 2: they have them week two. Uh, Jacksonville they get to 745 00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,840 Speaker 2: play this year, Houston they play, so they're playing the 746 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,000 Speaker 2: South and then New Orleans. 747 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,200 Speaker 3: Isn't that daunting? I mean, not too many. 748 00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 2: I could see this team two games against the Jets. Obviously, 749 00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,120 Speaker 2: You've got two games against Buffalo, which will be tough, 750 00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 2: and then two games against New England, which I could 751 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:36,520 Speaker 2: see them splitting. I would say I lean over just 752 00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,720 Speaker 2: because I'm not one hundred percent sure that Miami's gonna 753 00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:41,920 Speaker 2: get worse than last year. Now, you do have to 754 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 2: factor in Ryan Fitzpatrick and how he had some fitzmagic. 755 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,400 Speaker 3: Last season in Miami. The Beard. 756 00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:50,720 Speaker 2: I know it is all about Tua, but he does 757 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,560 Speaker 2: have his wide receiver in Jalen Waddell that he's gonna 758 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:54,160 Speaker 2: be able to play with. 759 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,240 Speaker 3: So Miami over nine and a half. 760 00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:00,800 Speaker 1: Wins, well, boy, you can't shake the confidence of that call. Boy. 761 00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:02,680 Speaker 1: Oh boy, whatence the thing? 762 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 3: You didn't ask me about my favorite win total of 763 00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:05,440 Speaker 3: the season? 764 00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 1: What is your favorite? 765 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 2: See? Yeah, see under for the Jaguars under six and 766 00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,440 Speaker 2: a half wins. You're telling me that a team that 767 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 2: had one win last year, all of a sudden's going 768 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:20,080 Speaker 2: to have a rookie quarterback, a rookie running back, and 769 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,240 Speaker 2: essentially a rookie head coach in the NFL and Urban 770 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,720 Speaker 2: Meyer that they're just going to come into the NFL 771 00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:29,040 Speaker 2: and do six times better than they did last year. No, 772 00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,400 Speaker 2: we saw it with Cincinnati. They had a new head coach, 773 00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 2: they had a new quarterback, first pick in the draft. 774 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,600 Speaker 2: They still only had four wins last year. I'm not 775 00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:43,280 Speaker 2: buying that you're gonna get six more wins because you 776 00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,480 Speaker 2: have all those factors at play, there's still growing pains. 777 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:48,920 Speaker 2: I will always tell this story, Joe, when I was 778 00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,920 Speaker 2: covering local news. My favorite thing about covering local news 779 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 2: is that on a football weekend, I was able to 780 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,280 Speaker 2: go from high school football on Friday and I was 781 00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 2: shooting the games, like with a k camera on the 782 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,440 Speaker 2: field by myself, shooting the games Friday from the field, 783 00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,840 Speaker 2: shooting the game Saturday for college football, and shooting a 784 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:08,400 Speaker 2: game Sunday for the Carolina Panthers. Seeing the speed Friday 785 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:10,480 Speaker 2: to Saturday, I mean, and I was in North Carolina, 786 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 2: so these high school kids are like legit. And when 787 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,160 Speaker 2: I would watch these Friday to Saturdays, they said, Okay, 788 00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,160 Speaker 2: there's a difference, but it wasn't anything that I wasn't 789 00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:19,200 Speaker 2: prepared for. 790 00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:24,600 Speaker 3: But then Saturday to Sunday was so ridiculously. 791 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,040 Speaker 1: And everyone should get to be on a sideline once 792 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:27,120 Speaker 1: so they could see just. 793 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,320 Speaker 2: What it's like because and compare it like go to 794 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,399 Speaker 2: each sideline be able to compare it day by day 795 00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 2: and see And I had Cam Newton at quarterback for 796 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,919 Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers at the time, so being able to see 797 00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 2: what Cam Newton was doing from a field level. And 798 00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,239 Speaker 2: you're trying to shoot it because when you're shooting the games, 799 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:45,759 Speaker 2: you're trying to be like a linebacker. You're trying to 800 00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,239 Speaker 2: figure out what the quarterback is going to do. Is 801 00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:48,840 Speaker 2: he gonna pass, is he gonna throw? I mean, is 802 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:49,319 Speaker 2: he gonna pass? 803 00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,239 Speaker 3: Is he gonna run? And with Cam you just really 804 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:51,600 Speaker 3: don't know. 805 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:53,759 Speaker 2: I mean, the head coach doesn't even know what he's 806 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,640 Speaker 2: gonna do because the play call is probably to throw 807 00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 2: and he's going to try to dive headfirst into the 808 00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:58,080 Speaker 2: end zone. 809 00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 3: So you just don't know. On these players are so fast. 810 00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:04,680 Speaker 2: That's why when I talk about these these transition years, 811 00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,759 Speaker 2: the quarterback trying to transition into the NFL. It was 812 00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,200 Speaker 2: so impressive what Justin Herbert was able to do last 813 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,720 Speaker 2: year because he came in on a whim, but coaching 814 00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,560 Speaker 2: a new head coach and a new quarterback for the 815 00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:20,040 Speaker 2: Jacksonville Jaguars, I'm not gonna get I'm not gonna bet 816 00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,960 Speaker 2: a over on this team to have seven wins. I'm 817 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:24,480 Speaker 2: gonna say they're gonna wonder six and a half. 818 00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:27,239 Speaker 1: I'm with you. Let's turn the keys once again. You 819 00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,279 Speaker 1: and I pretty much see the AFC the same. Maybe 820 00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:30,880 Speaker 1: I like the Browns a little bit more than you, 821 00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,080 Speaker 1: but I like a hot mess sometimes sometimes it's fun. 822 00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:35,879 Speaker 3: I do think on paper they're really good. 823 00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,919 Speaker 1: There's just such a roster. You should be nervous because 824 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,120 Speaker 1: they are a bunch of knuckleheads. But at the same time, 825 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:43,680 Speaker 1: it's a deep bunch of knuckleheads in terms of roster, 826 00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:45,359 Speaker 1: and that's the one thing in the NFL you're gonna 827 00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,840 Speaker 1: have injuries, especially on the defensive side. You're looking at 828 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 1: some of these guys too. The depth of that roster 829 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:52,520 Speaker 1: so good that next man up is actually a pretty 830 00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:54,839 Speaker 1: good man to put in there. All right, two minutes, real, leies, 831 00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:58,040 Speaker 1: you're ready, We're gonna do some props. Patrick Maholmes passing 832 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:04,359 Speaker 1: yards over under five thousand point five, seventeen games under. 833 00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:06,359 Speaker 1: I agree. I'm with you. Under for me as well. 834 00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:10,839 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson passing yards thirty four hundred point five over under. 835 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 3: Ooh, probably under. 836 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, Maybe I'm just depressed about Rashan Pateman today. But 837 00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:22,920 Speaker 1: I'm gonna say under. AJ Brown receiving yards twelve hundred 838 00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:24,680 Speaker 1: point five over under. 839 00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,480 Speaker 3: Oh, under, because he has Julia next to him. 840 00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,320 Speaker 1: Now over over, it's gonna be a lot. Oh, I 841 00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:32,440 Speaker 1: love it. Let's go. AJ Brown's gonna be a top 842 00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:36,759 Speaker 1: three wide receiver. Julio Jones one twenty five and a 843 00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:37,799 Speaker 1: half over under. 844 00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 3: Oh, that seems pretty low, it does. We're gonna have 845 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:41,920 Speaker 3: two one thousand yard receivers. 846 00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:43,239 Speaker 1: Why no, we had one two years. 847 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:46,760 Speaker 3: Maybe he didn't want to play last year over. 848 00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:50,640 Speaker 1: Who could blame him? Derrick Henry rushing yards after two 849 00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,440 Speaker 1: thousand yard season the number is fifteen to thirty nine 850 00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:54,880 Speaker 1: and a half on betting pros. 851 00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,000 Speaker 3: Well, there are a lot more receivers for them to 852 00:36:58,120 --> 00:36:58,600 Speaker 3: pass to. 853 00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:01,839 Speaker 2: Its sustainable. All right, we're going over. 854 00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go. It's over. Derek Henry and of course 855 00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:09,040 Speaker 1: my favorite guy, Naji Harris one thousand point five over 856 00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:10,240 Speaker 1: under for Naji Harris. 857 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,040 Speaker 3: Mmmm, rookie season. 858 00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:15,120 Speaker 2: Over. 859 00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:15,879 Speaker 3: They're gonna keep. 860 00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:19,120 Speaker 1: Big Ben healthy over absolutely, I'm with you. There we go. 861 00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:23,600 Speaker 1: Lots of agreements, a few disagreements, but more importantly, great information. 862 00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:25,120 Speaker 1: And that's why of course, I asked you to come 863 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,040 Speaker 1: on the show, and you should all be following her 864 00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:30,080 Speaker 1: on the Twitter machine because Aero Epstein is absolutely beast there. 865 00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:31,840 Speaker 1: Aerial epstcene is where you can find her on the 866 00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 1: Twitter machine. She is the prop queen for a reason. 867 00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:37,759 Speaker 1: Go check her out every single morning on sportscrid dot 868 00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,000 Speaker 1: com and everywhere you can watch sports Grid all over 869 00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,800 Speaker 1: your television. She does fantastic work. She does every single sport. 870 00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:47,000 Speaker 1: I'm jealous. I can't possibly do that. My head would explode. Ariel, 871 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:48,440 Speaker 1: what else you got going on? Because I know you're 872 00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,239 Speaker 1: a busy lady, just a. 873 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,480 Speaker 2: Lot on the morning after three hours a day, nine 874 00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,520 Speaker 2: am to now in the Eastern time, Monday through Friday, 875 00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:57,520 Speaker 2: and this weekend, our Pro Football Today is going to 876 00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:00,200 Speaker 2: start up on sports Grid, which is ten am east're 877 00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,240 Speaker 2: in to one pm usually when it starts football season. 878 00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:06,319 Speaker 2: It will be leading up to kickoff, which is great 879 00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:08,880 Speaker 2: because we bring on so many great analysts and people 880 00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,759 Speaker 2: that will help us, like doctor David chowprofootball dot dot com. 881 00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,600 Speaker 2: I absolutely love talking to him on game day because 882 00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,520 Speaker 2: he helps me more so with props than anything else. 883 00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,200 Speaker 2: Because think about it, whatever teams who cares about spreads 884 00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:21,360 Speaker 2: and meals. 885 00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:21,680 Speaker 3: And money lines. 886 00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:24,440 Speaker 2: We're all about the props and fantasy. And that's what 887 00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,120 Speaker 2: Doctor Chow is so good at. He helps us to tell, Hey, 888 00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:30,000 Speaker 2: this player is at one hundred percent and this player 889 00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 2: is not, and that's great. 890 00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:33,480 Speaker 1: And once again, I'll be the opening act every year 891 00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:35,839 Speaker 1: like I am from eight to ten for Area. 892 00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:38,640 Speaker 3: I've heard it. I mean it's nacked. 893 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:40,759 Speaker 1: Oh it's an act. Oh, it's an act alright. So 894 00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:42,800 Speaker 1: they let me kind of warm up the crowd and 895 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,359 Speaker 1: then Ariel's the main show pro Football today starting get ten. 896 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,439 Speaker 1: That's when the real experts come in there. So again, 897 00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,279 Speaker 1: go follow her on Twitter at Aera epscene and go 898 00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:52,880 Speaker 1: check her out everywhere you can. That'll do it for us. 899 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,400 Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on. For AERA epscene, 900 00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,919 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Pizapia. We'll see your next AIP kids,