1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by Fan 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: Duel Football seasons in full gear. No better place to 3 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: get in on the action than Fan Duel. Fan Duel 4 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: App is safe, you get paid fast. A lot of 5 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: ways to play the spread, the money line, team totals, players, props, 6 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: a lot of stuff over unders, jump into the action. 7 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: Same game parlays are my favorite. Just use the promo 8 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:38,919 Speaker 1: code Colin and download the Fan Duel app today. All right, 9 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: time for an instant reaction on the Jets Jaguars. I 10 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 1: poured a strong drink. This is going to take a while, 11 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 1: So first I have to commend New York football fans, 12 00:00:55,640 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: Buffalo fans, Giant fans, Jet fans now Josh Allen finally 13 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: arrives about four years ago, and the Bills games were 14 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: wildly entertaining. But for over a decade, the Bills were 15 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,400 Speaker 1: mostly unwatchable, and those wonderful fans in Buffalo filled that 16 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 1: stadium with less than ideal weather. Giants and Jets fans 17 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: for a combined what twenty years mostly unwatchable drek. Offensively, 18 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 1: the fact that Jets fans go to these games, stay 19 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 1: at these games. Let's have a drink to that. That 20 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 1: was gruesome. Zach Wilson's gone from b YU to bye bye. 21 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: I'm not sure he's an NFL player. I never felt 22 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: Johnny Manzil was an NFL player. Never did. I never 23 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: felt Tebow was an NFL player. I'm not sure Zach 24 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: Wilson's a backup. I'm not sure he is. Didn't like 25 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 1: to pick, never was a fan set it from the beginning. 26 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: I've had my missus. This isn't one of them, you know. 27 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 1: I want to tell you a story about so I've 28 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: been in radio for you know, Fox for five or 29 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 1: six years, ESPN ten eleven, local radio for seven or 30 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:16,800 Speaker 1: eight whatever, about twenty twenty five years. Whatever that is. 31 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: I'm not going to tell you the year of the person. 32 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: But in that span of twenty twenty five years, I 33 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: had an executive come to me once and he was 34 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: considering hiring a very talented person to do a radio show. 35 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 1: And I said to the executive, I said, there's a 36 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: big difference between somebody being a really good guest on 37 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: a radio show for ten to twelve minutes and somebody 38 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: being a host for three hours. This person was a 39 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 1: very good guest, and I said, we both liked the person. 40 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: The person's very talented at what they do. But I said, 41 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 1: I don't believe he's a host. I believe he's a 42 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 1: great guest. And so you know the show. They hired 43 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: him anyway, and it didn't work out as well as 44 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,399 Speaker 1: that executive had hoped. And about I don't know. Six 45 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: months later, I got like a Christmas party, I think 46 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 1: it was the exact comes up to me and says, 47 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: you know, I should have listened to you, And I 48 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: said no, I said, but as somebody who talks to 49 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 1: themselves for hours and hours, I said, you know, June, July, August, September, 50 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: you know there are these long stretches where you're just 51 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 1: you've got to be able to just look at a 52 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: microphone and talk. And I said, when I watched Zach Wilson, 53 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: I think he was great at his pro day. A 54 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: lot of these guys are great at their pro day, 55 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: their showoffs. They're not built to run a franchise emotionally, 56 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 1: from Provo Utah to New York intellectually, byu schedule to 57 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: the National Football League. Physically, you know, Utah's the best 58 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 1: opponent you play to the Bills. There were so many 59 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 1: things this kid who aced his Pro Day had to overcome. 60 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: You know. That's why mostly in the history of NFL football, 61 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 1: guys from Power five schools have done pretty well. Not 62 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: all the time. Big Ben was terrific, but you were 63 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: asking him to make a leap from BYU schedule to 64 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 1: the NFL Pro vote in New York City. He's smaller 65 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: than you'd like. He is built for a Pro day. 66 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: Johnny Manzill's built for a Pro day, especially Zach Wilson. 67 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 1: He moves, he's good looking, the optics are good, he's 68 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 1: got a nice arm, and then you put six foot 69 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: seven and a half offensive linemen in front of him, 70 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 1: the pressure of the New York media, cold off in 71 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: windy weather, sophisticated defenses stuffing against BYU. But look at 72 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:01,279 Speaker 1: their schedule. You know they're facing a Power five school 73 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: two or three times a year. It's a lot of 74 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: really you know, like second third tier coaches they go against. 75 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 1: Now you're going up against Belichick twice a year and 76 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 1: Sean McDermott twice a year. So there were so many 77 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 1: asks of him. The leap was too big, and there's 78 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 1: talent there, but you know, I'm watching Zach Wilson tonight, 79 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: and it was almost as if when they put in 80 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: Chris Streveler, a backup in the Canadian Football League, it 81 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,919 Speaker 1: was as if the offensive line blocked better, the running 82 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 1: backs ran harder. It was as if anybody in that 83 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:48,160 Speaker 1: huddle the team responded to at a higher level. This 84 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: is not a shot at Zach Wilson. I feel bad. 85 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 1: I think about this all the time as a sportscaster. 86 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: What if my son was a quarterback, what if my 87 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: son was a player. But I don't know if Zach 88 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: Wilson is a pro football player. I mean Tim Tebow, 89 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: Wan and Natty. I never thought he was a pro 90 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: football player. He can win games, you can't build your 91 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 1: franchise around him. So I mean Trevor Lawrence facing a 92 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 1: better defense on the road. You know, he's a kid 93 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: that played warm weather college football down in Jacksonville, goes 94 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: up to New York and is at least competent. Joe Douglas, 95 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: I think is a really sharp general manager, and people 96 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 1: will criticize him for missing on Zach Wilson, but it's 97 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 1: not an exact science. The best football coach ever, Bill Belichick, 98 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:40,039 Speaker 1: can't draft skill people. This stuff is hard. I've got 99 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 1: what I consider four general managers in the NFL that 100 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 1: I text regularly, have lunch with, occasionally talked to fairly regularly. 101 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 1: These guys are really smart, and they've missed badly on second, 102 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:58,839 Speaker 1: third round picks. One of them's missed badly on a 103 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: first round pick. It happens, It's hard. There were things 104 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:07,480 Speaker 1: about Zach Wilson that you know, he's got an arm, 105 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 1: he's got a little Aaron Rodgers to him. But you 106 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 1: just have to consider, you know, it's like, I guess, 107 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: you know. An example I would use is if let's 108 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 1: say you're a young person and you grow up in 109 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: or around Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Seattle, pretty big towns, right, 110 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 1: and you decide to go to college in New York City. 111 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: It's an adjustment to go from Denver to New York City. 112 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 1: But Denver's a city too, right. If you asked somebody 113 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 1: to go from Yuma, Arizona, cross country to New York 114 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 1: City to college, the speed, the temple of this city, 115 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 1: the number of people, the density, the crime rates higher, 116 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 1: there's got to have your head in a swivel a 117 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: little bit in New York City, right, Bigger cities. That's 118 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 1: a big ask. As a parent, I would be like, whoa, whoa, whoa, 119 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: I'm asking him to do too many things. I just 120 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: think they asked Zach Wilson. Maybe it would have worked 121 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 1: if he's in Arizona or Jacksonville. Maybe. You know. I 122 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 1: don't want to blame anybody here, but Joe Douglas is 123 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: a really sharp general manager. I think Robert Sali has 124 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: proven he can really coach defense. Would you want to 125 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 1: tie your career to this? I couldn't do it. I 126 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 1: just couldn't do it. And something else to look at tonight. 127 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 1: This was not a typical New York weather. It was 128 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: cold and windy. That's late November December, early January weather 129 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 1: in the Northeast. Everybody's like, oh, it's really windy. We've 130 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: all you know, if you've been around and flown around 131 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 1: the country before, we've all flown into New York City 132 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 1: November December, January February. It's windy. That plane, there's turbulence, 133 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 1: it's rock and you don't get a lot of sunny. 134 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 1: Seventy four degree days with no wind just doesn't work. Listen, 135 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 1: there's three New York football teams. One's a star quarterback, 136 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: one has a total whiff, and one has Daniel Jones. 137 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 1: That's about the NFL average. If you take three teams. 138 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: Somebody found a franchise guy, somebody totally whipped, and somebody 139 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 1: found kind of a sort of capable guy. They'll probably 140 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 1: move off. I was thinking about this today at the 141 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 1: end of my show in FS one. There's only five 142 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 1: quarterbacks in the world that if I was at GM 143 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: and I had them, I would never pick up the 144 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: phone for even a consideration of a trade. Mahomes, Alan Burrow, 145 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 1: Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence. That's it in the world. Aaron 146 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: Rodgers at fifty million a year, I'd pick up the phone. 147 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: Tom Brady at forty six, I'd pick up the phone. 148 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: Kyler Murray attitude, I'd pick up the phone. Five. It's hard. 149 00:09:56,520 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 1: Joe Douglas is a really, really good general manager, done 150 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 1: a lot of good work in a couple of years. 151 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: This is not pretty as far as the Jags, the 152 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 1: eight fans of the Jaguars who are watching this instant reaction, 153 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 1: You got your guy, you got one of the five. 154 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: It's a nice win. A typical weather for Trevor Lawrence. 155 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 1: I thought the Jets would win to night. I thought 156 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: it would be ugly, low scoring and the Jets would win. 157 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: Good for Jacksonville. It's pretty cool. It's pretty cool. Doug Peterson. Listen, 158 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 1: I got no agenda with Urban Meyer that was not good. 159 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 1: From what I can tell, Doug Peterson has turned this 160 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 1: puppy around. These guys are handful, and I think Greg 161 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 1: Kosell said it today on FS one. You move Trevor 162 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,679 Speaker 1: Lawrence out of the pocket, it's almost like he's more comfortable. 163 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 1: This team is just going to get better and better 164 00:10:56,160 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: and better. Once you get the quarterback right, makes life 165 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,840 Speaker 1: so much easier. I mean, look at the Colts. They've 166 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: got a lot of things right. They can't get the 167 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: quarterback right. They're swimming and you know what I mean, 168 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: They're they're drowning. So instant reaction. I hope you liked it, 169 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 1: Jets fans, I'm sorry. All right, coming up, Action Network 170 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: c CEO, Chad Milman, this is going to be good. 171 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: Sharper Square. All odds provided by fan Duel. Time for 172 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 1: Chad Milman, ce CEO, Action Network, All odds provided by 173 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,680 Speaker 1: fan Duel. So it's interesting. Sometimes I'll look at the 174 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 1: numbers you peruse the numbers and I just see a 175 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: bunch of things I don't like. There's always one game 176 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 1: that jumps out to me. This week I actually saw 177 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: several I liked. Now at this point, I'm not getting 178 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:03,840 Speaker 1: the best number. Commanders getting a touchdown at the Niners 179 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,839 Speaker 1: looked very interesting to me because I thought largely they 180 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 1: outplayed the Giants. I think they have a talented roster. 181 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: I can see the forty nine ers looking ahead. I 182 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: also think you're going to get a little pushback or 183 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: a little pullback on Purdy. There's now multiple games on 184 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 1: Brock Purdy. There's limitations. Ron Revere has been in this 185 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 1: league as a defensive guy for a long time. My 186 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: gut feeling is it's a little ugly low scoring. I'd 187 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 1: rather get seven and a half. I'll take seven sharper square. 188 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 1: Oh my god, you are coming in hot. The holiday 189 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: season has you prepped to be very, very sharp and personally, 190 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: I feel like this is a gift to me. I 191 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 1: feel like all of the teachings are coming back to 192 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: me tenfold right now. Totally sharp. The wise guys love 193 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 1: this game. You mentioned a lot to break down here, 194 00:12:57,400 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 1: and it's worth sort of spending the time on it 195 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:03,319 Speaker 1: because it's really interesting game, because it features a Commander's 196 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: team that a lot of people feel like they saw 197 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: get beat in prime time against a Brock Purty led 198 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 1: Niners team that is the hottest team in the NFL 199 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: with a quarterback who people are now making all the 200 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,839 Speaker 1: regular comparisons you make when you've got a guy who 201 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: comes out of nowhere to do something great. That Commander's 202 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: team should have won that game the other night they 203 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: outplayed Giants. You know, we do this thing at Action 204 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 1: Network called the Luck Rankings, and it categorized. It takes 205 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: a lot of different sort of factors from the game, 206 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 1: puts them all into one bucket and basically says, these 207 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 1: teams outperformed expectations. These teams underperformed expectations based on the 208 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: plays that defy expectations. Red zone failures, random turnovers, penalty calls. Right, 209 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:57,320 Speaker 1: the Giants and the Commanders had all of those at 210 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 1: opposite ends. The Commanders, if you play the game out 211 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: according to the stats, should have won that game. Meanwhile, 212 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 1: they're going on the road, they're playing the hottest team 213 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 1: in the NFL. The inflation in this game is massive, right, 214 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: and Kyle Shannon in this spot tends to play more conservative. 215 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: He's terrible as a huge favorite. His decision making changes. 216 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: And you know who brock Purty could be Taylor Heineke, 217 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 1: meaning he came in, he's a baller, he makes the 218 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 1: right decisions. And then all of a sudden you get 219 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 1: film on the guy and you're like, should we go 220 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: back to Crosson Wentz? Do we wish we had Jimmy 221 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 1: g So yeah, there is a lot of sentiment that 222 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 1: loves the Commanders. And one more thing to think about, 223 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 1: strictly from a bookmaker point of view, they are begging 224 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 1: you to bet the Commanders when you have low totals 225 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 1: like this, and the totals about thirty eight in this game, 226 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 1: the bookmakers are expecting a low scoring game. That's what 227 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: they're telling you. Low scoring games with pretty big numbers 228 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: in terms of the spread tend to play to the 229 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: underne dog. The bookmakers are giving you a couple of 230 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: points here because they want they want you to bet 231 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: in the Commanders because all the tickets, all the squares 232 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: they're coming in on the Niners. Great call, Colin, great call. 233 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: I wish the number was three. Similarly to the commanders. 234 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 1: The numbers not ideal, but I think it's pullback time 235 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: for the Lions. The Panthers defensive front is pretty interesting. 236 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 1: Darnold's always been better when he's pretty comfortable. Sam on 237 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 1: the road, Sam and bad Weather get out of here. 238 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 1: But this feels low scoring. You're getting to the point 239 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 1: with the Lions now that the casuals that the squares 240 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: are jumping in on the Lions. To this point, there 241 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: are a better story than a team. Caroline is a 242 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: way better team than a story. I'm going to take 243 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 1: the home team plus two and a half sharper square. 244 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 1: Oh my god, Colin, It's it's like you're in my head. 245 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 1: It's like you've been in my notes that I've been 246 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: sort of collecting all day. The first thing you said 247 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: is the most important thing. You like it better at three. 248 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: If you can find this number at three, what I 249 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 1: would recommend to people is you wait, because, as you noted, 250 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 1: the public is coming in hard on the Lions. Very 251 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: possible comes Sunday. This line gets back up to three. 252 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: But the wise guys do like the Panthers here. The Panthers, 253 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 1: since Sam Darnold has been playing, have just been a better, 254 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: more consistent, more predictable team. They're six against the pass 255 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: in DVOA. Since week ten, their sack rate over the 256 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 1: past six weeks has improved. You've got Jared Goff who 257 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 1: struggles against pressure, struggles away from home when he's outside. 258 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 1: You look at that Jets game, it's another one similar 259 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 1: to the Commander's game. The Jets should have won that game. 260 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: And if not for that fourth and inches passed to 261 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 1: a backup tight end who scores a touchdown from fifty 262 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: five yards away. The Lions struggle to score six points 263 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:08,440 Speaker 1: on offense. So you're completely on the right side here. 264 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 1: See if you want to get you see if you 265 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 1: can get the three on Sunday. We're Saturday Emmy football 266 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 1: seasons underway. 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Gambling 282 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,680 Speaker 1: problem one eight hundred, next step or text next step 283 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: to five three three four two Arizona one eight eight 284 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,679 Speaker 1: seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG 285 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: dot org slash chat Connecticut one hundred gambler or visit 286 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 1: FanDuel dot com slash RG and Colorado, Indiana, Jersey, and 287 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 1: Virginia one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in 288 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,120 Speaker 1: Louisiana one hundred two seven oh seven one one seven 289 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 1: for confidential health in Michigan one eight seven seven h 290 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: Ope n Y. Or tex Hope n Y. For six 291 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: seven three six nine in New York, Tennessee redline one 292 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:48,199 Speaker 1: hundred eight nine nine seven eight nine Tennessee visit one 293 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 1: eight hundred gamble dot in West Virginia. Okay, I like 294 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 1: the Bears last week. I like them again plus eight 295 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: and a half. With the bi Bills come off a 296 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 1: highly emotional divisional game. It could be minus fifteen degrees 297 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: in Chicago. I think the Bears can match up in 298 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 1: the trenches where the Bills old line outside of center 299 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 1: is not great and their defensive lineman Ed Oliver pushed 300 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 1: around against Miami, they ran for almost one hundred and 301 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 1: ninety yards. Bills probably win. I think the Bears are 302 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 1: playing hard, a lot of young players. Stuff's being put 303 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:31,920 Speaker 1: on film, new GM, new coach, They're still being graded. 304 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,680 Speaker 1: I would take the Bears plus eight and a half 305 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: on an ugly game. Sharper square, totally sharp. This game 306 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,160 Speaker 1: opened at nine and a half, it got bit down 307 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 1: to nine, got down to eight and a half. The 308 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 1: wise guys still like it. We've talked about this, I'd 309 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 1: say the past three weeks, almost a month. We talked 310 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: about taking the Rams as big dogs. We talked about 311 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 1: taking I think it was against Seattle it was like 312 00:19:56,600 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 1: eight and a half, we talked about taking the Broncos 313 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: as big dogs against the Chiefs. That covered last week, 314 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: we talked about taking the Bears as big dogs against Philly. 315 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 1: Forget about what you're seeing on the field. All your 316 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,480 Speaker 1: analysis is right. This is about betting, right, and sometimes 317 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 1: betting is not about the field. It's about the number. 318 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 1: And we've talked about this stat the past six years. 319 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 1: When you've got teams that have a really high winning 320 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 1: percentage playing teams that would have a really low winning percentage, 321 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 1: the team with the low winning percentage covers about sixty 322 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: percent of the time. And the reason is because of 323 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:37,880 Speaker 1: basic gambling math. Bookmakers set a number that is really 324 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 1: really high for the team that has been playing really 325 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 1: really well all season long because they know the public 326 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 1: is going to come in and bet it no matter what. 327 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,399 Speaker 1: They don't care what's happening on the other side. They 328 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: move the number a little bit only if the wise 329 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 1: guys come in so hard they feel like they have 330 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 1: to move the number because they see that they set 331 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,320 Speaker 1: it a little bit too high. It's going to cost 332 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 1: them a little bit of cash. But the wise guys 333 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 1: are the Bears. Here. I'm going to tell you a 334 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:08,400 Speaker 1: favorite I really like. So I believe extra time with 335 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 1: good coaches matters a lot bowl games off of buy 336 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 1: In the NFL, I think we have ourselves a borderline 337 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:22,119 Speaker 1: football genius in Mike McDaniel, who completely out game planned 338 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:27,679 Speaker 1: and outschemed Sean McDermott time of possession shutdown. Stefon Diggs 339 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 1: had one hundred ninety yards rushing one time of possession. 340 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:37,239 Speaker 1: They outplayed the Bills two days extra prep packers. On 341 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: Monday night. The Dolphins were five and oh against non 342 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: playoff teams, Owen three against playoff teams on the road. 343 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 1: They come back home for a non playoff team. Green 344 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 1: Bay's not beating Miami, Minnesota and Detroit. This is a 345 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:59,080 Speaker 1: team that can't stop the run at all. I get 346 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 1: the sharpest young which in the game two are now 347 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 1: comfortable with a disappointing season long pass rush. I'm taking 348 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 1: Miami and in fact, I never do this. On Blazing 349 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 1: five thirty to seventeen, they went by two touchdowns. I 350 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:18,440 Speaker 1: know it's square, but it's fun anyway. Sharper square all right. 351 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: So I know you like to ski. I know you 352 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 1: like to get out into the wilderness. You're skiing over 353 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:33,679 Speaker 1: your tips on this one. Okay, going going thirty to 354 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 1: seventeen calling out a number. What are you doing? Why 355 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 1: would you why would you give more than you have to? 356 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: The wise guys love the Packers. Okay, this game opened 357 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 1: to five and a half, got it down to five, 358 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 1: got that down to four and a half, got it 359 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,879 Speaker 1: down to four, got it down to three and a half. 360 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 1: I will tell you three and a half seems to 361 00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,240 Speaker 1: be the floor for this game. When it us to 362 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,879 Speaker 1: three and a half, the professionals come back in immediately, 363 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 1: got that up to four. So this is about a 364 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 1: number situation, not what's happening on the field. The reason 365 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 1: they like the Packers is because five and a half 366 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 1: is a really big number for this Miami team that 367 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,240 Speaker 1: has struggled of late. And we talked about this probably 368 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,119 Speaker 1: a month ago. We saw Miami was gonna have to 369 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 1: go on the road. They were going to have to 370 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,679 Speaker 1: play San Francisco, They're gonna have to play Los Angeles, 371 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,439 Speaker 1: They're gonna have to play Buffalo. And I think what 372 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 1: a lot of wise guys feel is that those teams 373 00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,760 Speaker 1: showed a blueprint for beating Mike McDaniels. You're jamming the 374 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 1: Dolphins receivers trying not to let them get ahead of 375 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 1: steam and get downfield. The Packers defense is not very good, 376 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 1: especially against the run. So what they are good at 377 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,880 Speaker 1: is in their defensive backfield, defending against the past. Zara 378 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:55,360 Speaker 1: Alexander made the Pro Bowl. That is a huge advantage 379 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 1: for the Packers. That's why the wise guys started like 380 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,920 Speaker 1: this team. I also feel like Theers have not been 381 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 1: a complete offensive team this year, and you're starting to 382 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:07,400 Speaker 1: get comfortable with Watson, Romeo Dobbs coming back fair. I 383 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: think that they feel this is their opportunity to get 384 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 1: to the playoffs. I think you'll get a competitive game. 385 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 1: I don't think it'll be a thirteen point win for 386 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 1: the Dolphins. The wise guys like the number at anything 387 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,960 Speaker 1: four and above. Okay, so now I always close with 388 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,639 Speaker 1: two things. First of all, there's a game I'm on 389 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,120 Speaker 1: I can be pushed in or out of, and it's 390 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 1: Raiders plus three at Pittsburgh. The number on FanDuel minus 391 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 1: two and a half three. I've said this for weeks. 392 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 1: I think Josh McDaniel's going to get it right. I 393 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 1: like him. There are in a lot of one possession games. 394 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,879 Speaker 1: My knock on him as he gets conservative sometimes with 395 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 1: a lead, But I just don't think Pittsburgh is good 396 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: enough to swallow three points. You tell me where I 397 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 1: should go. I'm interested in what you what side you 398 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,239 Speaker 1: would take. So the line has moved to two, and 399 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 1: when I was at three, it was a pass at two. 400 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:05,000 Speaker 1: I kind of like the Steelers. I think their defense 401 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,199 Speaker 1: is really really good, and that's been what's keeping him 402 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: alive in the second half of the season. I'm a 403 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: big Kenny Pickett fan. I felt like he was a 404 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 1: complete gamer when he came in for miss Drubisky and 405 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 1: got them close in games against the Jets team. Let's 406 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,639 Speaker 1: look at that first game he played against that Jets team. 407 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 1: He almost had them win that game. I guess the 408 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 1: Jets team that we clearly think is much better than 409 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 1: we thought, right, So that's number one. Number two, he 410 00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:40,160 Speaker 1: had that bye week and came back and was significantly 411 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 1: better than he had been prior to the bye. So 412 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,920 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, he's getting comfortable. He was making 413 00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,680 Speaker 1: plays for this team just as an athlete, So now 414 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:55,440 Speaker 1: he's coming back with this defense in this weather. An 415 00:25:55,440 --> 00:26:00,119 Speaker 1: emotional weekend in Pittsburgh fiftieth anniversary of immaculate reception and 416 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,199 Speaker 1: Frank O'Hara's dying this week. That is a town that 417 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,880 Speaker 1: gets behind this team. I would like to be a 418 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 1: short home favorite against the Raiders and be the Steelers 419 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:16,080 Speaker 1: this weekend. Finally, a game that maybe gross I haven't mentioned, 420 00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 1: but you have a strong opinion at the Action Network 421 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:24,640 Speaker 1: on it. Not really, these are roles grotesque and by 422 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 1: the way, I bet some of these and I've done 423 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:33,359 Speaker 1: pretty well it works out. How about the New England 424 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:38,160 Speaker 1: Patriots at plus three and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals. Gross, 425 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 1: it's gross, and listen, I have loved the Bengals all 426 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 1: season long, loved him even more, not since not since 427 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow started to get more comfortable and sort of 428 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 1: play out of the rust, but really since DJ Reader 429 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,800 Speaker 1: came back, that team has just been consistently better. And 430 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 1: I've been betting them often in spots where you normally 431 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 1: wouldn't want to bet them. This week, the Pats are 432 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,560 Speaker 1: at the lowest point you're going to get them, and 433 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,359 Speaker 1: the Bengals are at the highest point you're going to 434 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,400 Speaker 1: get them. And we talk about what the wise guys 435 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,200 Speaker 1: look at isn't so much the final score of a game. 436 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 1: They look at the yards per play in a game. 437 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,359 Speaker 1: They look at their randomness in a game. I mentioned 438 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:27,919 Speaker 1: the luck rankings earlier. Right, the Bucks were dominating that 439 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,280 Speaker 1: game against the Bengals, and they had four turnovers. They 440 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,440 Speaker 1: were up seven team nothing in the first half. You're right, 441 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 1: of course, of the game, the Buccaneers had more yards 442 00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,280 Speaker 1: per play, and that's a metric that's not gross yards, right. 443 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,200 Speaker 1: Gross yards really indicates a team could be coming back. 444 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:44,480 Speaker 1: They gained five hundred yards because they were passing every 445 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 1: play and the other team was running it and playing 446 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,120 Speaker 1: out the clock. Right, yards per play is a really 447 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 1: good indicator of which team sort of was more successful offensively. 448 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,399 Speaker 1: So you had that with the box against the Bengals. Now, 449 00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,399 Speaker 1: Trey Henderson, he's got a broken wrist. Even if plays, 450 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 1: he's going to be playing with the club. Sam Hubbard 451 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 1: also on the defensive line is out and the defensive 452 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:06,639 Speaker 1: line of the reasons why I've loved back in the 453 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,680 Speaker 1: Bengals the past few weeks. I think there's gonna be 454 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,280 Speaker 1: a lot of wind in the game that potentially neutralizes 455 00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:16,080 Speaker 1: the Bengals passing attack. Wow, this is this is why 456 00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:19,640 Speaker 1: you're a sharp God, this is how did I overlook this? 457 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:24,200 Speaker 1: This is why I'm a duller, a dim bulb, a square. God, 458 00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:31,399 Speaker 1: It's so obvious and just right over my head. It 459 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:33,960 Speaker 1: this line moved from three and a half to three, 460 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:36,600 Speaker 1: and so I think where you got to hope for 461 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:38,480 Speaker 1: is that it goes back to three and a half 462 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 1: because people are going to come in on the Bengals 463 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 1: like this is a big pros Joe's game. So getting 464 00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 1: the hook here is really important because most wise guys 465 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 1: have this power late power rated it three year less 466 00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 1: and look, I know it. It feels like a half 467 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 1: point doesn't mean anything, but to wise guys on a 468 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,720 Speaker 1: key number like three, it means everything. Look at the 469 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,320 Speaker 1: text it look at the Chargers and Titans game last week, 470 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:06,960 Speaker 1: like the game lands it on three. If you had 471 00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 1: the Chargers minus two and a half, you were golden. 472 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,480 Speaker 1: If you had the Titans plus three and a half, 473 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 1: you were golden. Like that, I'm key numbers like that 474 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,640 Speaker 1: it kind of means everything. And you know, like you 475 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 1: pointed out for the Lions, Bengals are at the peak 476 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:25,239 Speaker 1: of the market. Peak borrow, isn't possible I could just 477 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 1: buy my way into being a sharp because I'm not 478 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 1: going to be able to do it based on data 479 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 1: and takes. You can. It's called you buy the points 480 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 1: every week. You just buy the extra half a point 481 00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 1: every single week and you're golden. Boy. That was a 482 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,880 Speaker 1: good one for anybody listening. That was really good. That 483 00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 1: is why the Favorites podcast is great. That New England 484 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,040 Speaker 1: takes your best of the year. Honestly, well, I can't 485 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 1: believe that everything you said. You were like a magician. 486 00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,640 Speaker 1: I was looking over to the left with the cards 487 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:01,719 Speaker 1: and you pulled a pigeon out of your suit and 488 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 1: I'm like, how the fuck did he do that? That 489 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 1: was literally I'm just I am in awe. You know, 490 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:12,080 Speaker 1: a magician's good when you do it and you're like, oh, 491 00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,880 Speaker 1: he totally got me. I can't believe I overlooked it. 492 00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 1: What listen, It is totally gross. Like you see that. 493 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 1: We first talked about this on The Favorites on Tuesday 494 00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 1: and we were having a conversation and it all makes sense, 495 00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,400 Speaker 1: but I was really uncomfortable with it. And then today 496 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 1: when we recorded the Thursday edition, we do this thing 497 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 1: called sharp calls, where the wise guys who were connected 498 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,520 Speaker 1: to will call us and react to the conversation we had, 499 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 1: and all of them were talking about that Patriot's Bengals game, 500 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,720 Speaker 1: like that was the play that everybody that game, and 501 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,960 Speaker 1: then Dallas and the other thing we didn't talk about, 502 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 1: which is interesting obviously, is Dallas and Philadelphia. Well, I 503 00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 1: would take Philadelphia, that would be the side. My concern 504 00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 1: is Greg coo Sell told me on Thursday, he said, 505 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,800 Speaker 1: they're not going to run the same offense mostly with 506 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,720 Speaker 1: Gardner Minshew, and he worries about in a short week, 507 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,240 Speaker 1: do you just say we're not changing our offense. We're 508 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 1: going to kind of run what we run because I 509 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:20,200 Speaker 1: think Philadelphia is clearly the better team. Co Sell also 510 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,080 Speaker 1: said this, It was one of his gems of the year. 511 00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 1: He said, when you watch film, Ceedee Lamb's not a 512 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: great one. Schultz is productive, not a great tight end. 513 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 1: Gallops not the same player that Dallas's skill people because 514 00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,960 Speaker 1: they're dallas Is are driven up in the market, but 515 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,920 Speaker 1: they really don't have a starting ace on the mound. 516 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:46,280 Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb is like a great two or an average one. Dallas. 517 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,080 Speaker 1: By the way, Dallas is going to have to go 518 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:54,600 Speaker 1: to either San Francisco bad bad spot or at Philadelphia. 519 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,600 Speaker 1: We all know how this is going to end. Right now, 520 00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 1: I would take Philadelphia in the points. Is that sharp side. 521 00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:03,840 Speaker 1: It started as the sharp side, but there's been It's 522 00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:07,040 Speaker 1: like talk about split. When I say like there's no 523 00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,280 Speaker 1: consensus on a game when we're talking about the Panthers, 524 00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,680 Speaker 1: it's because it's like you take the plus three and 525 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 1: when it's not plus three, maybe you take the plus 526 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 1: two and a half. But it kind of wait till 527 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:19,640 Speaker 1: it gets back to plus three. But people aren't passionate 528 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 1: about it. There's passion on the Cowboys and the Eagles 529 00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,800 Speaker 1: right now. And when this game was at six, people 530 00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,880 Speaker 1: were buying the Eagles hard at plus six. You saw 531 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 1: it get down to five and a half. And then 532 00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:34,040 Speaker 1: when Jalen Hurts was officially announced he was out. Wise 533 00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,400 Speaker 1: guys all started talking about the Cowboys again. And I 534 00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 1: think part of it is they're looking at the injury 535 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 1: reports right and who's practicing for the Eagles, and there's 536 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,280 Speaker 1: a lot of guys sitting out this week and Gardner 537 00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 1: Minshew misspractice time because of Mike Leach's funerals. So I 538 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 1: think that from the wise guy perspective, and maybe they're 539 00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:58,080 Speaker 1: overthinking it. Are the Eagles going to take this week 540 00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,360 Speaker 1: off if I think they're going to have to see 541 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,720 Speaker 1: the Cowboys in the playoffs, like you just mentioned, do 542 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,560 Speaker 1: they not want to show anything special? Jalen Hurts isn't 543 00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,320 Speaker 1: going to play. They're in a a pretty good position as 544 00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,240 Speaker 1: it relates to the conference standings. Is this a game 545 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 1: where they're not going to not show up? But this 546 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,680 Speaker 1: is a rest week. So I think that's why the 547 00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,600 Speaker 1: wise guys started coming into the Cowboys. Yeah, that said, 548 00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:23,400 Speaker 1: I bet the Eagles a plus five and a half 549 00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,479 Speaker 1: and I'm not buying out of it, meaning I'm not 550 00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,040 Speaker 1: going to bet the Cowboys. I'm not going to hedge 551 00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,560 Speaker 1: it in any way. So what's the number at now? 552 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,360 Speaker 1: I think it's back up to six. I think when 553 00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 1: sort of it became official with Minshew, it went back 554 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,479 Speaker 1: up to six because some wise guys started playing. They 555 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:44,080 Speaker 1: started playing the Cowboys. Let me sweet, six points. I 556 00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:46,920 Speaker 1: would take Philadelphia, even though I think your reasoning is right. 557 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:51,600 Speaker 1: Six is too many points for that defense. Interesting, it's 558 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,680 Speaker 1: now down to four and a half. Yeah, now Dallas 559 00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:59,600 Speaker 1: is interesting. See now Dallas is decide. Now it becomes 560 00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:03,640 Speaker 1: interesting Colin. And now if it continues to move down 561 00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 1: like I've got it at five and a half the 562 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:12,879 Speaker 1: numbers at four, I'd probably keep waiting. I would try 563 00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:16,200 Speaker 1: to find a very thin middle if I can get 564 00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,040 Speaker 1: it at three and a half, like does it continue 565 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,600 Speaker 1: to go down? For me? It's a wait and see 566 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,440 Speaker 1: if you haven't bet it yet, take Dallas at for 567 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,759 Speaker 1: but that's where it gets interesting. That's good, that's good. 568 00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:32,240 Speaker 1: Strong all right, buddy, Chad Millman, Action Network, all right, man, listen, 569 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:37,000 Speaker 1: have a great holiday. I'll try to. You know, I 570 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,560 Speaker 1: haven't been sick in a long time, so everybody's getting 571 00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,759 Speaker 1: sick in LA. I'm just getting sick of LA. So 572 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:48,879 Speaker 1: it's the same thing to fly away. I'll see it right. 573 00:34:49,440 --> 00:35:10,040 Speaker 1: Do the volume. Make sure to check out The Draymond 574 00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:13,520 Speaker 1: Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the volume because 575 00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,880 Speaker 1: one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective 576 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 1: understands behind the rope also chops up with guests like 577 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:24,680 Speaker 1: Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download The 578 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:29,000 Speaker 1: Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts, only on 579 00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,000 Speaker 1: the Volume Podcast Network.