WEBVTT - Interview Only w/ Chris Cillizza - Does Talarico’s Win Put Texas In Play For Democrats?

0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:01.960
<v Speaker 1>This episode of the Chuck Toodcast is brought to you

0:00:01.960 --> 0:00:05.480
<v Speaker 1>by Quints. A thoughtfully built wardrobe comes down to pieces

0:00:05.480 --> 0:00:09.600
<v Speaker 1>that mix well and last. That's where Quince shines. Premium fabrics,

0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:12.879
<v Speaker 1>considered design, and every day essentials that feel effortless to

0:00:12.960 --> 0:00:16.680
<v Speaker 1>wear and dependable even as the seasons change. Quince has

0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:20.560
<v Speaker 1>the everyday essentials I love with quality that lasts, lightweight

0:00:20.640 --> 0:00:23.880
<v Speaker 1>cashmere sweaters, not too expensive either by the way, short

0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:28.639
<v Speaker 1>sleeve Mongolian Kashmir polos, linen bottoms, and shorts. Quinch works

0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.720
<v Speaker 1>directly with top factories and cuts out the middlemen. That's

0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:34.560
<v Speaker 1>why it's more affordable. You're not paying for the brand

0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:38.080
<v Speaker 1>markup or any fancy retail stores, but you're still getting quality.

0:00:38.120 --> 0:00:41.000
<v Speaker 1>Everything is built to hold up to regular wear and

0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:44.240
<v Speaker 1>still look good. Quite often I'm wearing something that I've

0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:48.640
<v Speaker 1>gotten from Quints. It is incredibly comfortable. I've become a

0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:50.839
<v Speaker 1>middle aged man who loves his quarter zips. They have

0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:54.360
<v Speaker 1>plenty of those. I have been very pleased, and it's just,

0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:56.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, when I like a piece of clothing, I

0:00:56.640 --> 0:01:00.840
<v Speaker 1>probably wear it too much and usually tell after about

0:01:00.840 --> 0:01:02.840
<v Speaker 1>two or three months. That's not the case so far,

0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:06.120
<v Speaker 1>with Quinn's. That's been impressive. So right now, go to

0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:08.560
<v Speaker 1>quins dot com slash chuck for free shipping and three

0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:10.840
<v Speaker 1>hundred and sixty five day returns. It's a full year

0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:13.399
<v Speaker 1>to build your wardrobe and you'll love it. Now available

0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:16.679
<v Speaker 1>in Canada too. Don't keep settling for clothes that don't last.

0:01:16.840 --> 0:01:22.000
<v Speaker 1>Go to qu I n ce dot com slash chuck

0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:25.000
<v Speaker 1>for free shipping, three hundred sixty five day returns quints

0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:32.399
<v Speaker 1>dot com slash chuck. Well, I normally am on the

0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:35.880
<v Speaker 1>receiving end of this, but he's Chris, and this is

0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:40.800
<v Speaker 1>Crystaliz's a guest appearance on the Check podcast. And those

0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:43.000
<v Speaker 1>of you that may not know this, and maybe some

0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:46.640
<v Speaker 1>of you don't know, I appear weekly on your Behind

0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:52.320
<v Speaker 1>the Paywall podcast. You're an elite you're an elite network influencer. Yeah,

0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:55.520
<v Speaker 1>it's a Britique offering. You have a velvet rope behind

0:01:55.560 --> 0:01:58.240
<v Speaker 1>our conversations. You know, I'm a man of the people,

0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:01.080
<v Speaker 1>as you know, and say no, you we're getting rid

0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:02.600
<v Speaker 1>of the velvet rope just for this.

0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.960
<v Speaker 2>When I heard when I got the email that I

0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:09.880
<v Speaker 2>was being asked to be on the Chuck podcast, I

0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:12.720
<v Speaker 2>immediately told my wife. I've made it.

0:02:14.040 --> 0:02:14.200
<v Speaker 1>You know.

0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.040
<v Speaker 2>Well, I thought Chuck was blackballing me off of the

0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:20.400
<v Speaker 2>Chuck Podcast. Apparently not. He must be hard off for guests.

0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:21.520
<v Speaker 2>Somebody canceled.

0:02:22.280 --> 0:02:26.920
<v Speaker 1>No, I bucked ken Burns for you. But how about that,

0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:29.480
<v Speaker 1>you know America's two hundred and fiftieth birthday in the

0:02:29.480 --> 0:02:31.960
<v Speaker 1>American Revolution. We can wait a few days on that.

0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:34.399
<v Speaker 2>Can I trade bank accounts?

0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:39.880
<v Speaker 1>Now? Well that's there, you got I teeth. Look we

0:02:39.880 --> 0:02:42.440
<v Speaker 1>were we did a live stream on Tuesday night. Yeah,

0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:45.560
<v Speaker 1>but you know, in many cases, you know, you have

0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:48.920
<v Speaker 1>the immediate moments when you deal, and then you know,

0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:51.040
<v Speaker 1>you get a day, you get a night, you get

0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:53.400
<v Speaker 1>to sort of see this. And you know, since we

0:02:53.480 --> 0:02:58.320
<v Speaker 1>last saw you as a pair, Jasmine Crockett is conceited

0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:01.640
<v Speaker 1>quite quickly. And I think there was some question about

0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:05.320
<v Speaker 1>whether Taller I think Taller Rico's management of that was

0:03:05.440 --> 0:03:08.560
<v Speaker 1>quite deft when he said, hey, we're not calling, We're

0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:11.360
<v Speaker 1>not claiming victory until all the votes are counted in Dallas,

0:03:11.400 --> 0:03:14.200
<v Speaker 1>which has made it harder for Crockett to have a

0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:17.720
<v Speaker 1>grievance when her own opponent was willing to have her

0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:21.800
<v Speaker 1>back there. And now it's you know, and now all

0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:24.200
<v Speaker 1>the all the eyes are on the Republican side. By

0:03:24.200 --> 0:03:26.280
<v Speaker 1>the way, we still don't have all the votes in No,

0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:26.959
<v Speaker 1>we still don't.

0:03:26.800 --> 0:03:30.239
<v Speaker 2>Have Look, it's like ninety five percent, and I do

0:03:30.320 --> 0:03:35.840
<v Speaker 2>think Cornan will finish a heag marginally. I mean, it's

0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:40.040
<v Speaker 2>it's basically going to effectively be a wash. It's eight

0:03:40.160 --> 0:03:43.080
<v Speaker 2>ninety seven point eighty four to eight seventy one, six seventy.

0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:45.440
<v Speaker 2>So Cornyan has had by twenty six thousand votes with

0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:49.160
<v Speaker 2>ninety more than ninety five percent.

0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:53.960
<v Speaker 1>In Here is the stat that moved me the most

0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:58.240
<v Speaker 1>that I saw today, and that is in counties that

0:03:58.360 --> 0:04:02.640
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump one by fifty points or more. In the

0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:07.280
<v Speaker 1>deep red Texas County, Okay, all right, Paxton consistently led

0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:09.280
<v Speaker 1>corn In by four to five points for four to

0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:13.320
<v Speaker 1>forty when you put all those together. So I look

0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:18.080
<v Speaker 1>at that and you're just, you know, Cornyn, the question

0:04:18.320 --> 0:04:20.720
<v Speaker 1>is can Cornn get to fifty? Right?

0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:21.000
<v Speaker 2>Like?

0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:25.040
<v Speaker 1>You know this is you start to look and I

0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:29.960
<v Speaker 1>it's you know, it's fascinating. I'm gonna share an anecdote

0:04:30.000 --> 0:04:32.800
<v Speaker 1>with you. I was running some errands on Wednesday morning,

0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:35.760
<v Speaker 1>and you know, you know, you live in your neighborhood.

0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:38.479
<v Speaker 1>You have the same people you run into and you know,

0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:41.280
<v Speaker 1>and these are people that are not political people, but

0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:43.320
<v Speaker 1>they know what I do for a living. And you know,

0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:46.560
<v Speaker 1>I was ran into one of these acquaintances and I said, yeah,

0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:49.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm tired. I was covering the Texas primaries. You know,

0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:51.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm just sort of groggy, sorry, or something like that.

0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:54.520
<v Speaker 1>And this person said, oh, those were last night. He goes,

0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:56.880
<v Speaker 1>so what happened? And you know, meaning but you know,

0:04:57.040 --> 0:04:59.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, and I said, and he said, who won

0:04:59.320 --> 0:05:01.760
<v Speaker 1>that Democratic? And I said, the young pastor did Tella Rico?

0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:04.080
<v Speaker 1>He goes, oh, I'm relieved. He goes, you know, I

0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:07.680
<v Speaker 1>just exhausted from the bomb throwers. And it was just,

0:05:07.920 --> 0:05:10.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, we've been having this debate, Chris, right, which

0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:14.400
<v Speaker 1>is where is the Democratic primary electorate? Is it in

0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:17.320
<v Speaker 1>fight mode or is it in exhaustion mode? And in

0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:20.760
<v Speaker 1>twenty eighteen it felt exhaustion right, they were in twenty twenty,

0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.400
<v Speaker 1>twenty eighteen and twenty twenty it was less fight back

0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:26.640
<v Speaker 1>and more like this is crazy, let's have a reset,

0:05:26.960 --> 0:05:29.680
<v Speaker 1>and they're all The messaging was sort of around that.

0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:32.720
<v Speaker 1>All the candidates sort of leaned into that whether you're

0:05:32.720 --> 0:05:37.400
<v Speaker 1>Alyssa Slotkin. And yet this first year of Trump's second term,

0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:41.400
<v Speaker 1>we've seen the fighters, whether it's Gavin Newsom in the

0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:44.680
<v Speaker 1>presidential stakes, or frankly, it was Jasmine Crockett who jumped

0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:46.760
<v Speaker 1>out sort of tortoise and hair type of mindset. Right.

0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:49.279
<v Speaker 1>She jumped out early and was doing better than I

0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:51.080
<v Speaker 1>think a lot of us expected, and we thought, oh boy,

0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:54.960
<v Speaker 1>this this fighter mentality maybe getting you know, Democrats, maybe

0:05:55.000 --> 0:05:57.560
<v Speaker 1>they want to punch her. They don't necessarily want a preacher,

0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:02.000
<v Speaker 1>and yet they do. You know, you look at the twenty,

0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:05.159
<v Speaker 1>then you look at the Virginia New Jersey races. Yeah,

0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:10.120
<v Speaker 1>and you look at the the style of Mom Donnie Okay,

0:06:10.200 --> 0:06:14.320
<v Speaker 1>which is moderate in tone even if it's progressive, totalte

0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:19.120
<v Speaker 1>and you're asked and you're like, maybe Gavin Newsom has

0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:21.120
<v Speaker 1>this wrong, maybe he's making a mistake.

0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:23.800
<v Speaker 2>It's so funny that you said that, because one of

0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:26.479
<v Speaker 2>the things I really like, it's always hard. I'll first say,

0:06:26.520 --> 0:06:29.400
<v Speaker 2>it's always hard when we're live and we're trying to

0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:32.440
<v Speaker 2>analyze in real time. You're not totally sure where the

0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:34.640
<v Speaker 2>votes are coming from, and you obviously don't have a

0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:36.280
<v Speaker 2>minute to kind of step back and just be like,

0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:38.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to go through each race. I'm gonna look

0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:40.440
<v Speaker 2>at each race and be like, oh, that's interesting, that's

0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:44.000
<v Speaker 2>not It's hard to have like deeper thoughts. That's why

0:06:44.040 --> 0:06:47.160
<v Speaker 2>I like a couple days after you can sort through.

0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:50.640
<v Speaker 2>I was on Wednesday morning. I was just looking at

0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:52.560
<v Speaker 2>the results and I was thinking about the conversations you

0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:55.200
<v Speaker 2>and I have had in the run up to this

0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:57.840
<v Speaker 2>Tallar Eico Crockett, which is that a lot of the

0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:01.039
<v Speaker 2>national media has painted this as liberal husband Crockett against

0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:04.360
<v Speaker 2>moderate James Telrico, which is totally wrong. And I'll point

0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:06.880
<v Speaker 2>you to it. There's a great stat out there. There's

0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:10.000
<v Speaker 2>a great map online that shows that in the counties

0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:15.360
<v Speaker 2>that Bernie Sanders won in the Texas primary, tell Rico

0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:17.560
<v Speaker 2>won by forty points. I mean, the reason that he

0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:21.080
<v Speaker 2>won is because of the left. Crockett was never a

0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:24.120
<v Speaker 2>that was never a governing dynamic. But the other thing

0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:26.720
<v Speaker 2>I was thinking about, to your point, is like the

0:07:26.760 --> 0:07:29.880
<v Speaker 2>fighter versus uniter or the you know, the the over

0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:33.160
<v Speaker 2>partisan versus the kind of I don't want to call

0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:36.480
<v Speaker 2>Tallary called bipartisan, but a lot less partisan energy. And

0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:38.920
<v Speaker 2>I was thinking, you know, what like, it's one data point.

0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:42.280
<v Speaker 2>But if I'm Pete boodage age or like a Shapiro.

0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.480
<v Speaker 1>I feel like a bit Andy Bisheer.

0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:49.560
<v Speaker 2>I felt a little bit better after on the day

0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:52.200
<v Speaker 2>after than I did the day before. And again it's

0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:55.200
<v Speaker 2>one data point. Like if Graham Plattner in Maine goes

0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:58.000
<v Speaker 2>and beach Janet Mills by thirty points, Okay, we're never

0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:00.880
<v Speaker 2>having a different conversation, right, you know, so I would.

0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:04.560
<v Speaker 1>Also, I don't want to discount the following phenomenon, which

0:08:04.600 --> 0:08:07.280
<v Speaker 1>is there's you know, when you've been beaten to a

0:08:07.360 --> 0:08:10.640
<v Speaker 1>pulp like Texas Democrats have been for the last twenty years,

0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:16.680
<v Speaker 1>you're you're like anything, you know, there's there's a I'm

0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:19.120
<v Speaker 1>going to quote an old Eddie Murphy stand up line.

0:08:19.200 --> 0:08:21.280
<v Speaker 1>It is like when you're a starving person, any cracker

0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:24.160
<v Speaker 1>tastes like our ritz, you know, and he's like, oh man,

0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:27.360
<v Speaker 1>this is a great cracker. When you're starving, anything tastes

0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:32.240
<v Speaker 1>like our writs. Right, And it is so that there

0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:35.240
<v Speaker 1>is you know, this is why you know, one primary

0:08:35.240 --> 0:08:37.040
<v Speaker 1>does not make a trend, and you have to wait

0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:39.360
<v Speaker 1>and we have to watch and look Illinois in two

0:08:39.400 --> 0:08:42.000
<v Speaker 1>weeks presents. You know, there's all sorts of flavors of

0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:44.520
<v Speaker 1>Democrats you can pick from in that Democratic primary in

0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:47.920
<v Speaker 1>Illinois that frankly I think has been hijacked by big

0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:52.760
<v Speaker 1>money in a way that gosh to two extraordinary methods.

0:08:52.800 --> 0:08:55.800
<v Speaker 1>But let's put a pin in that buying the office, no,

0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:59.040
<v Speaker 1>no doubt. But when you what you have so I

0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:02.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, is this say Texas Democrats are exhausted and

0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:05.199
<v Speaker 1>they're looking for a winner, you know? Or is this

0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:07.400
<v Speaker 1>you know? So that's that'd be the only caution I

0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:08.640
<v Speaker 1>want to put in here. But I have to say.

0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:13.959
<v Speaker 1>Nate Silver wrote a really interesting piece this morning on

0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:19.040
<v Speaker 1>Wednesday about Kid tell Rico win correct and it was

0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:23.720
<v Speaker 1>I I was talking about this issue of partisan versus moderate,

0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:26.760
<v Speaker 1>which is that we and he correctly said a lot

0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:30.679
<v Speaker 1>of sort of inexperienced I call him in a you know,

0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:33.800
<v Speaker 1>the problem with big mainstream media these days, or whatever's

0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:36.400
<v Speaker 1>left of it, is that there's a lot of important

0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:39.959
<v Speaker 1>legacy titles with a lot of inexperienced political reporters, you

0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:42.720
<v Speaker 1>know who think politics started you know, after you know,

0:09:42.760 --> 0:09:45.720
<v Speaker 1>when Donald Trump came down the escalator and don't really

0:09:45.760 --> 0:09:48.520
<v Speaker 1>have a lot of experience beyond sort of the last

0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:52.120
<v Speaker 1>eight to ten years of American politics. And and so

0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:56.079
<v Speaker 1>you know the difference between partisan. You can be moderate

0:09:56.120 --> 0:10:01.440
<v Speaker 1>and temperament and still very ideologically either Conserva or modern.

0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:02.600
<v Speaker 1>So I'll give you you know.

0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:04.400
<v Speaker 2>And that's mom. Donnie, I think is such a good

0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:06.640
<v Speaker 2>example of that. People. How could he go and get

0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:09.360
<v Speaker 2>along with Trump because he's temperamentially moderate even though on

0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:11.320
<v Speaker 2>a policy perspective he's very very liberal.

0:10:11.640 --> 0:10:15.720
<v Speaker 1>So you know, one of the most conservative senators that

0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:18.679
<v Speaker 1>Florida's ever had, and arguably more conservative than the two

0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:20.839
<v Speaker 1>senators that they have at the moment, was a guy

0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:24.800
<v Speaker 1>named Connie Mack. Totally honey, Connie Mack. I used to

0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:28.360
<v Speaker 1>call him the conservative with a smile because when he

0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:30.880
<v Speaker 1>ran as a conservative, and he ran when he won

0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:35.920
<v Speaker 1>an eighty eight uh, he won, I think despite his ideology.

0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:39.160
<v Speaker 1>But it was because he was just simply a nice guy.

0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:42.080
<v Speaker 1>That's really was Connie Mack your pal? And he was

0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:44.920
<v Speaker 1>just sort of and he always was. He was he's

0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:47.880
<v Speaker 1>always it goes. Reagan is the great, you know example,

0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:51.079
<v Speaker 1>and he was Reagan, which was, hey, look, if you're

0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:55.000
<v Speaker 1>going to sell austerity, you ought to be don't better

0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:57.079
<v Speaker 1>be with a smile, don't be a dick.

0:10:57.600 --> 0:11:01.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, exactly. You know, it's a simple lesson, But it's

0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:03.400
<v Speaker 2>actually because I was thinking about that with Chip.

0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:06.280
<v Speaker 1>Roymembertism with George W.

0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:10.319
<v Speaker 2>Bush, and I know, like Chip Roy is kind of unlikable,

0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:12.040
<v Speaker 2>do you know what I mean? And he got pummeled

0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:14.040
<v Speaker 2>in the Attorney General's race, like it does matter. We

0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:17.040
<v Speaker 2>talk about we always talk about Tim Burchett. Tim Burchett

0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:20.520
<v Speaker 2>is like among the most conservative members of Congress, but

0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:23.160
<v Speaker 2>like Algender, const Cortez loves him because he's like a

0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:26.000
<v Speaker 2>he's like a It's exactly what you said. He's not

0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:29.600
<v Speaker 2>overly partisan, even though he's very conservative.

0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:33.200
<v Speaker 1>Another example on the right Mike Pence. Mike Pence, you know,

0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:35.520
<v Speaker 1>lived in the same neighborhood I'd lived in for a while.

0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:37.400
<v Speaker 1>Everybody loved him. I don't know if anybody would have

0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:40.200
<v Speaker 1>ever voted for him, Okay, in the neighborhood. He was

0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:42.880
<v Speaker 1>very you know, and yet he was the guy that

0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:45.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, would bring in your garbage cans if you

0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:47.080
<v Speaker 1>were if you didn't have a chance to do it

0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:48.800
<v Speaker 1>because you were late coming.

0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:51.120
<v Speaker 2>And I think people don't understand that. I think that's

0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:53.800
<v Speaker 2>such an important intall.

0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:57.120
<v Speaker 1>Errico may have this, and it may matter more to

0:11:57.240 --> 0:12:01.480
<v Speaker 1>Texans than perhaps it does folks in Illinois, or perhaps

0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:03.880
<v Speaker 1>it does. I mean, and so I I but but

0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:07.199
<v Speaker 1>there is something about temperament here that I think we're

0:12:07.200 --> 0:12:08.800
<v Speaker 1>we're you know, we're we're all trying to figure this

0:12:08.880 --> 0:12:11.760
<v Speaker 1>out in this second Trump term, which is our Democrats.

0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:14.000
<v Speaker 1>And the thing is, if you're online, if you're a

0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:18.240
<v Speaker 1>Pod Save America Democrat, you're you're on edge.

0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:21.679
<v Speaker 2>You're midas touch Democrat. You hate him and everything he does.

0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:26.440
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but you know, if you're sort of not, if

0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:29.040
<v Speaker 1>you're trying to tune it out and you're you're you're

0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:31.960
<v Speaker 1>more looking, you know, but you're still you know, hopefully

0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:33.640
<v Speaker 1>you're subscribing to YOU or I because you're like.

0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:36.480
<v Speaker 2>Let's you're making some attention, Yeah.

0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:38.200
<v Speaker 1>But you don't really want to be lectured all the

0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:40.400
<v Speaker 1>time in the screen and made to feel like the

0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:44.199
<v Speaker 1>sky is falling every second of the day. You're you're

0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:46.280
<v Speaker 1>looking for change, but you're looking for a change in

0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:49.359
<v Speaker 1>tone as much as a change in in in ideology.

0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:53.400
<v Speaker 1>And look again, this maybe it's one state. It's one

0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:56.600
<v Speaker 1>very big state. Yep, it's it's gigantic and.

0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.079
<v Speaker 2>A ton of profile and a ton of attention. I

0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:02.319
<v Speaker 2>I like the the main race is probably the clearest

0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:06.280
<v Speaker 2>example of that. The choice, I also think it's a

0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:08.360
<v Speaker 2>three way race is a little more complicated. But in

0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:11.880
<v Speaker 2>the Michigan Senate primary, you kind of have Hailey Stevens,

0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:13.839
<v Speaker 2>the member of Congress, who's very much like I'm not

0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:15.520
<v Speaker 2>going to talk about how terrible Trump is. You have

0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:19.400
<v Speaker 2>Abdul l si Ed, who's like Justice Democrat Bernie Sanders.

0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:21.959
<v Speaker 2>And then I think McMorrow probably winds up being the Mallard.

0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:24.080
<v Speaker 2>McMorrow winds up being on me, who's kind of a hybrid.

0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:26.199
<v Speaker 1>She's Goldilocks. Yeah, exactly right.

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:28.840
<v Speaker 2>But I don't know, But I mean, there will be

0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:32.320
<v Speaker 2>more data points. And look again, if Graham Platner beats

0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:35.719
<v Speaker 2>Janet Mills by fifteen points in the main primary, you

0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:39.000
<v Speaker 2>know that, then the tall Eco thing looks like just

0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:41.920
<v Speaker 2>a data point that's contradicted by that data point, right, Like,

0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 2>we don't know.

0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:45.319
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, well, let's talk. Let's have a little fun here.

0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:49.000
<v Speaker 1>I was. I did this sort of scenario with a

0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:53.480
<v Speaker 1>couple of people earlier, earlier today, and this is the following.

0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:58.520
<v Speaker 1>If the Democrats had been the dominant political party in

0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:02.640
<v Speaker 1>Texas for the last thirty years, and the Republicans were

0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:05.800
<v Speaker 1>the ones that have had a hard time winning general elections.

0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:10.480
<v Speaker 1>Does the Republican electorate become more mindful of quote unquote electability?

0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:13.560
<v Speaker 1>And and does the Democrat you know, and I say

0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.520
<v Speaker 1>this in that the fact is we've actually seen this

0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:19.440
<v Speaker 1>play out. Right, Why does a moderate Republican like Larry

0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:23.760
<v Speaker 1>Hogan successfully navigate a primary in Maryland that yes, he

0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:25.000
<v Speaker 1>had a conservative.

0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:26.920
<v Speaker 2>Murphy Cracker thing, right, You're.

0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:30.840
<v Speaker 1>Like, well, maybe this guy can win, right, And you know,

0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:34.080
<v Speaker 1>it's it's one of those that that Crockett probably wins.

0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:36.880
<v Speaker 1>If Democrats had gotten comfortable winning.

0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:41.120
<v Speaker 2>One hundred percent. I think it's it's so much of

0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:45.240
<v Speaker 2>it is expectations, right, if you've won and you control

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.280
<v Speaker 2>I mean, look, we're talking about this. You know Gary Morrow, right,

0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:51.040
<v Speaker 2>is the last Democrat to win statewide in two thousand

0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:52.000
<v Speaker 2>and four.

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.120
<v Speaker 1>No, nineteen eighty four, nineteen ye. I mean, that's a

0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:59.000
<v Speaker 1>long ass time you were in college or high school.

0:14:59.040 --> 0:14:59.320
<v Speaker 1>I was.

0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:02.400
<v Speaker 2>I was graduating from past that was my high school

0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:05.640
<v Speaker 2>graduation and I turned fifty a few days ago, So

0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.880
<v Speaker 2>that tells you how long it was like I do

0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:12.040
<v Speaker 2>think there is a a an element of like, look,

0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:19.320
<v Speaker 2>we don't have the luxury of picking the perfect. We

0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:23.560
<v Speaker 2>have to vote with our head more than our heart.

0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:27.200
<v Speaker 2>And I think that always is the case in places

0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:32.200
<v Speaker 2>where you've been down one party has been down for

0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:34.760
<v Speaker 2>an extended period of time, you are more willing to

0:15:34.800 --> 0:15:36.920
<v Speaker 2>be like, it's not my cup of tea. But like,

0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:39.920
<v Speaker 2>I've spent the last twenty five years under Democratic rule.

0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:44.320
<v Speaker 2>So maybe Charlie Baker as the governor of Massachusetts or whatever,

0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:47.400
<v Speaker 2>you know, like he's probably too moderate for me, but like,

0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:48.280
<v Speaker 2>you know, and I.

0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:50.760
<v Speaker 1>Think that that better than those liberals over there, right.

0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:53.800
<v Speaker 2>Because you know what it's like to live under if

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:57.600
<v Speaker 2>you're a Democrat in Texas, you've spent probably most of

0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:01.840
<v Speaker 2>your adult life under almost fied Republican rule. So you

0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:04.560
<v Speaker 2>now know, like, I'm not letting the perfect get in

0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:07.000
<v Speaker 2>the way of the good here, right, And I do

0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:09.800
<v Speaker 2>think I think that's human nature to do that.

0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:12.280
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to let Texas go without picking a

0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:15.360
<v Speaker 1>few knits because you know, one of it was interesting

0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:17.800
<v Speaker 1>last night, we had some we had you know, all

0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:20.080
<v Speaker 1>of the as Missus Todd likes to say, she goes

0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:22.120
<v Speaker 1>I love the numbers guys that you guys have on

0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:25.120
<v Speaker 1>the livest Nerds. Yeah, you know, because I say that,

0:16:25.240 --> 0:16:29.480
<v Speaker 1>I say that lovingly. But if I had one, you know,

0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.200
<v Speaker 1>there was this well, hey, it just broke down the

0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:34.640
<v Speaker 1>exact same way that Royce West and m J. Hagar

0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.400
<v Speaker 1>broke down. And you're like, Okay, that's true, except you

0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:40.520
<v Speaker 1>know what both Crockett and what Crockett had that that

0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:44.320
<v Speaker 1>Royce West didn't have was money and attention and a.

0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:47.880
<v Speaker 2>Way bigger profile. Nobody except people like us even knew

0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:48.960
<v Speaker 2>who Royce West was.

0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:51.920
<v Speaker 1>So what I would the knits I'd pick here is that.

0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:55.600
<v Speaker 1>So I think I'm going to separate Jasmine Crockett political

0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:58.160
<v Speaker 1>athlete right when you have like, you know, you take

0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:04.640
<v Speaker 1>the A good example of my be a let's take

0:17:04.680 --> 0:17:07.280
<v Speaker 1>my son's favorite NBA team, the Phoenix Suns. He's very

0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:09.040
<v Speaker 1>frustrated they have one of the best players in the

0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:13.320
<v Speaker 1>NBA that that doesn't get enough enough attention. And yet

0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:16.800
<v Speaker 1>is it Booker's fault that he has a terrible infrastructure

0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:19.240
<v Speaker 1>around him, that he's got a you know, a campaign manner,

0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:21.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean, an owner that's you know, way to this

0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:24.119
<v Speaker 1>right that the big all the The point is is

0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:27.600
<v Speaker 1>that so here she was a really good political athlete

0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:31.600
<v Speaker 1>who had a terrible infrastructure round because I at the

0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:32.560
<v Speaker 1>end of the day, she.

0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:34.000
<v Speaker 2>Did not run a good campaign.

0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:36.800
<v Speaker 1>She did not she did not have a statewide organization.

0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:39.679
<v Speaker 1>She was sort of she You know. The problem is

0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:42.760
<v Speaker 1>it strikes me as she was the candidate and the manager,

0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:46.760
<v Speaker 1>and you have to have versus Talla. Rico clearly had

0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:47.639
<v Speaker 1>an organization.

0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:50.200
<v Speaker 2>I mean, yeah, he is real people, Liz Smith who's

0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:51.639
<v Speaker 2>had successful well that's not just.

0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:55.000
<v Speaker 1>That, but the people. But they clearly had a ground operation.

0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:58.919
<v Speaker 1>Clearly we're thinking about real Grand Valley, right, and that's

0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:06.600
<v Speaker 1>that's how he won. This episode of the Chuck Toddcast

0:18:06.680 --> 0:18:08.720
<v Speaker 1>is brought to you by American Financing. So if you

0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:11.639
<v Speaker 1>looked at your credit card statement lately, you're working forty

0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:14.639
<v Speaker 1>fifty hours a week just to buy groceries and gas

0:18:14.680 --> 0:18:16.879
<v Speaker 1>things that used to be able to afford, right, and

0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:19.560
<v Speaker 1>the credit card companies are charging you over twenty percent

0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:22.400
<v Speaker 1>interest for the privilege. Think about that. It's a lot

0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:24.399
<v Speaker 1>of extra money out the door. It's designed to keep

0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:27.359
<v Speaker 1>you under water. Well, American Financing is doing something they hate.

0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:30.160
<v Speaker 1>They're actually trying to help people. They have mortgage rates

0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:32.840
<v Speaker 1>in the fives. They're showing homeowners how to take their

0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:36.800
<v Speaker 1>hard earned equity to wipe out that high interest debts.

0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:39.600
<v Speaker 1>The average savings is eight hundred dollars a month. So

0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:43.639
<v Speaker 1>talk to a salary based mortgage consultant, no upfront fees,

0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:46.880
<v Speaker 1>no obligation, commission, none of that. To see how much

0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:48.520
<v Speaker 1>you can say and if you start today, you could

0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:53.480
<v Speaker 1>delay to mortgage payments. Give American Financing a call America's

0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:56.600
<v Speaker 1>home for home loans eight six six eight eight five

0:18:56.840 --> 0:19:00.199
<v Speaker 1>ten point eighty one. That's eight six six eight eight

0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:05.520
<v Speaker 1>five one zero eight one, or go to Americanfinancing dot net.

0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:11.199
<v Speaker 1>Slash the Chuck Toodcast use that code. This episode of

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:14.640
<v Speaker 1>The Chuck Podcast is brought to you by Zebiotics. Let's

0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:16.639
<v Speaker 1>face it, after a night with drinks, it's hard to

0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:18.800
<v Speaker 1>bounce back the next day. You have to make a

0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:22.480
<v Speaker 1>choice either have a great night or a great next day. Well,

0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:26.760
<v Speaker 1>that's where pre alcohol comes in. Zbiotics. Pre alcohol probiotic

0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:31.199
<v Speaker 1>drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was

0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:34.560
<v Speaker 1>invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking.

0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:37.160
<v Speaker 1>Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted

0:19:37.200 --> 0:19:39.919
<v Speaker 1>into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a build

0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:43.760
<v Speaker 1>up of this by product, not dehydration that's to blame

0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:47.199
<v Speaker 1>for the rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an

0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:50.760
<v Speaker 1>enzyme to break this by product down. Just remember to

0:19:50.880 --> 0:19:54.880
<v Speaker 1>make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly,

0:19:55.080 --> 0:19:58.000
<v Speaker 1>and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Now. Look, I don't

0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:02.200
<v Speaker 1>drink anymore, so I can't giveiotics pre alcohol a personal endorsement.

0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:05.800
<v Speaker 1>But my producer Lauren does drink and he tried it out. Lauren,

0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:07.680
<v Speaker 1>how was your experience, I'll be honest, Chuck.

0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:09.600
<v Speaker 3>I was a bit skeptical at first, but the other

0:20:09.680 --> 0:20:11.119
<v Speaker 3>night I went out with my wife to our favorite

0:20:11.119 --> 0:20:13.920
<v Speaker 3>spot for Margarita's and tried pre alcohol beforehand and got

0:20:13.960 --> 0:20:15.800
<v Speaker 3>to admit I was surprised by how good I felt

0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:17.640
<v Speaker 3>the next morning, disabled the pop right out of bed,

0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:19.720
<v Speaker 3>get a workout in, have a great day of work.

0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:21.800
<v Speaker 3>So pre alcoholic gets my stamp of approval.

0:20:21.840 --> 0:20:23.840
<v Speaker 1>So there you go. You ready to try it, Go

0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:27.960
<v Speaker 1>to zebiotics dot com slash Chuck podcast right now. You'll

0:20:27.960 --> 0:20:30.440
<v Speaker 1>get fifteen percent off your first order when you use

0:20:30.600 --> 0:20:33.280
<v Speaker 1>Chuck Podcast at checkout. Plus, it's backed by a one

0:20:33.400 --> 0:20:37.560
<v Speaker 1>hundred percent money back guarantee, so there's no risk. Subscriptions

0:20:37.560 --> 0:20:40.760
<v Speaker 1>are also available for maximum consistency. Remember to head to

0:20:40.840 --> 0:20:45.159
<v Speaker 1>zebiotics dot com slash Chuck podcast and use the code

0:20:45.320 --> 0:20:49.439
<v Speaker 1>Chuck podcast at checkout for the fifteen percent discount. Again,

0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:57.159
<v Speaker 1>use the code Chuck podcast, and that should scare the

0:20:57.160 --> 0:21:00.680
<v Speaker 1>Bejesus out of it for publics. Right, if if Talla Rico

0:21:00.800 --> 0:21:04.160
<v Speaker 1>can essentially recreate what Veto did in the Rio Grand Valley,

0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:06.120
<v Speaker 1>because people forget this. Beto cleaned up in the Rio

0:21:06.119 --> 0:21:09.840
<v Speaker 1>Grand Valley against Cruz. His problem, frankly, I think was

0:21:09.880 --> 0:21:12.080
<v Speaker 1>he didn't do as well. And this was a critic

0:21:12.119 --> 0:21:14.360
<v Speaker 1>of him. He was almost so obsessed with the Rio

0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:17.919
<v Speaker 1>Grand Valley that he sort of didn't run up the

0:21:17.960 --> 0:21:20.040
<v Speaker 1>score in the urban areas that arguably he should have

0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:23.639
<v Speaker 1>run it right. And and you know this was you know,

0:21:23.720 --> 0:21:25.600
<v Speaker 1>this is the the if you were going to make

0:21:25.640 --> 0:21:28.800
<v Speaker 1>the case for Crockett on the ticket, it would have been, well,

0:21:28.840 --> 0:21:31.119
<v Speaker 1>she's not gonna you know, the urban areas are going

0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:34.440
<v Speaker 1>to turn out in greater numbers, you know, so then

0:21:34.480 --> 0:21:37.280
<v Speaker 1>you just send her to to the Rio Grand Valley

0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:39.600
<v Speaker 1>and see if she can, you know, fight to a

0:21:39.680 --> 0:21:43.280
<v Speaker 1>draw among Latino voters. So it is it is clear

0:21:43.359 --> 0:21:48.080
<v Speaker 1>that she didn't run a statewide campaign. No, and and

0:21:48.160 --> 0:21:51.960
<v Speaker 1>so you know, look, I think that here's what I've

0:21:52.160 --> 0:21:55.600
<v Speaker 1>I feel like her decision to concede quickly, she conceded

0:21:55.680 --> 0:21:59.200
<v Speaker 1>quicker than I fully expected, tells me she wants a

0:21:59.240 --> 0:22:02.000
<v Speaker 1>future in the party. I was just going up and

0:22:02.000 --> 0:22:05.639
<v Speaker 1>that says a lot. Look cruises up soon. And who's

0:22:05.680 --> 0:22:08.720
<v Speaker 1>to say, you know, we've seen plenty of places where

0:22:08.760 --> 0:22:11.200
<v Speaker 1>the second time you run, you maybe she'll figure out

0:22:11.200 --> 0:22:13.280
<v Speaker 1>that she needs to not always run hot, right.

0:22:13.160 --> 0:22:18.000
<v Speaker 2>She's especially a state that big, Yeah.

0:22:17.880 --> 0:22:21.600
<v Speaker 1>It's always in fifth gear. She won't she won't necessarily

0:22:21.640 --> 0:22:23.840
<v Speaker 1>have to do that the next time. You know, does

0:22:23.920 --> 0:22:26.600
<v Speaker 1>she have does she have an ability to pivot? And

0:22:26.640 --> 0:22:29.920
<v Speaker 1>all this stuff? And what kind of campaign? What kind

0:22:29.960 --> 0:22:32.680
<v Speaker 1>of candidate is she? If she has an actual campaign infrastructure?

0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:35.160
<v Speaker 1>Right now, Look, here's stuff I don't know. I don't

0:22:35.160 --> 0:22:38.639
<v Speaker 1>know whether she's easy to that she will listen to

0:22:38.720 --> 0:22:41.600
<v Speaker 1>an infrastructure. Right, we don't know those things. I don't

0:22:41.640 --> 0:22:42.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, I'm not going to sit here and say

0:22:42.760 --> 0:22:47.040
<v Speaker 1>I know her very well, but I don't think she's erratic,

0:22:47.640 --> 0:22:49.600
<v Speaker 1>and I don't think she makes the same mistake twice.

0:22:49.920 --> 0:22:52.400
<v Speaker 2>I thought it was very First of all, one thing

0:22:52.400 --> 0:22:55.320
<v Speaker 2>that I just looked up, she's only forty four years old, Okay,

0:22:55.359 --> 0:22:58.359
<v Speaker 2>so put that, I think it is unlikely this is

0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:02.520
<v Speaker 2>the last you've ever heard from herlitically. Second, I when

0:23:02.600 --> 0:23:06.240
<v Speaker 2>I got up Wednesday morning and I saw that she

0:23:06.359 --> 0:23:10.840
<v Speaker 2>had conceded and endorsed tall Rico and then put on Twitter,

0:23:11.080 --> 0:23:14.480
<v Speaker 2>you know we're all unified, I thought, well, she's probably

0:23:14.520 --> 0:23:17.760
<v Speaker 2>gonna run for something like that. Is that is like

0:23:17.920 --> 0:23:21.160
<v Speaker 2>the Democrat First of all, it's the Democratic dream scenario, right,

0:23:21.240 --> 0:23:24.800
<v Speaker 2>Like they need like eight things to go right, Chuck,

0:23:24.840 --> 0:23:27.440
<v Speaker 2>to even put yourself in a position where they might win.

0:23:27.920 --> 0:23:30.320
<v Speaker 2>And one of those things was you could not have

0:23:30.600 --> 0:23:35.359
<v Speaker 2>any look of particularly with Crockett being an African American woman,

0:23:35.640 --> 0:23:38.679
<v Speaker 2>you could not have there be a vibe of, oh,

0:23:38.680 --> 0:23:41.120
<v Speaker 2>I don't really love the kind of campaign tallar Rico ran.

0:23:41.160 --> 0:23:43.720
<v Speaker 2>And maybe a'll endorsement eventually, but it'll be right like

0:23:43.800 --> 0:23:47.160
<v Speaker 2>she gave an unequivalental endorsement. I agree. I will say

0:23:47.160 --> 0:23:49.320
<v Speaker 2>I think she started too late, right, I mean, she

0:23:49.400 --> 0:23:51.760
<v Speaker 2>got into late for the size of the primary tall.

0:23:51.800 --> 0:23:54.320
<v Speaker 2>Rico had been in for a really long time, and

0:23:54.000 --> 0:23:57.200
<v Speaker 2>I don't if you look at the numbers. She did

0:23:57.440 --> 0:24:00.440
<v Speaker 2>well where she was known. She did well on the

0:24:00.520 --> 0:24:03.879
<v Speaker 2>Dallas media market. She did pretty well in Harris County

0:24:04.240 --> 0:24:08.040
<v Speaker 2>in Houston. But man, like the entire if you split

0:24:08.119 --> 0:24:13.240
<v Speaker 2>the state vertically, she just gets destroyed right in everything

0:24:13.240 --> 0:24:14.440
<v Speaker 2>in the western part of the state.

0:24:14.720 --> 0:24:17.240
<v Speaker 1>It just struck. It looks like a campaign that was

0:24:17.280 --> 0:24:20.960
<v Speaker 1>not complete, right, a campaign infrastructure that was just incomplete.

0:24:21.000 --> 0:24:23.600
<v Speaker 1>She was the classic building it as the plane is

0:24:23.600 --> 0:24:24.520
<v Speaker 1>taking off and.

0:24:24.520 --> 0:24:27.320
<v Speaker 2>A house member, right. A house members never run statewide

0:24:27.359 --> 0:24:29.440
<v Speaker 2>and it's not like running statewide in my home state

0:24:29.440 --> 0:24:32.160
<v Speaker 2>of Connecticut, where it's like you're if you're a member

0:24:32.160 --> 0:24:35.159
<v Speaker 2>of Congress who represent the twenty percent of the of

0:24:35.200 --> 0:24:37.560
<v Speaker 2>the state. You rep what are the thirty six members

0:24:37.560 --> 0:24:39.119
<v Speaker 2>of Congress and tech I mean you reap. Nobody knows

0:24:39.160 --> 0:24:41.160
<v Speaker 2>what the hell you aren't say California.

0:24:41.600 --> 0:24:46.560
<v Speaker 1>One more little you know, how you sort of you

0:24:46.600 --> 0:24:49.720
<v Speaker 1>see an event, you see something happen, and you're like, hmm,

0:24:50.000 --> 0:24:52.600
<v Speaker 1>there's more to this story. So the Kamala Harris last

0:24:52.600 --> 0:24:57.080
<v Speaker 1>minute in Dorset, Yes, all right, I promise you there's

0:24:57.119 --> 0:24:59.800
<v Speaker 1>a TikTok to do on this, right, My guess is

0:25:00.080 --> 0:25:04.360
<v Speaker 1>Rocket tried to get this weeks ago, of course, and

0:25:04.920 --> 0:25:08.920
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure Crockett, who's part of the the Black Sorority,

0:25:09.200 --> 0:25:12.640
<v Speaker 1>She's a member of one of the big black those

0:25:12.720 --> 0:25:15.760
<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris. This is one of those sisterhood things. Right,

0:25:15.800 --> 0:25:20.439
<v Speaker 1>are you going to back? And so you know, this

0:25:20.520 --> 0:25:24.040
<v Speaker 1>strikes me as a classic Kamala Harris risk, you know,

0:25:24.320 --> 0:25:28.600
<v Speaker 1>waiting too long, being indecisive. Oh am I going to

0:25:28.640 --> 0:25:30.560
<v Speaker 1>get involved? Am I not going to get involved? All right?

0:25:30.560 --> 0:25:32.640
<v Speaker 1>If I well, boy, it looks bad if I don't

0:25:32.680 --> 0:25:34.920
<v Speaker 1>back the black woman. But you know, and then when

0:25:34.960 --> 0:25:37.639
<v Speaker 1>does she do it? When it's too late to help,

0:25:38.240 --> 0:25:41.400
<v Speaker 1>so she gets all the worst parts of this, which did.

0:25:41.200 --> 0:25:43.879
<v Speaker 2>It after early vote was over right? I mean it

0:25:44.000 --> 0:25:45.480
<v Speaker 2>makes no sense.

0:25:45.440 --> 0:25:49.720
<v Speaker 1>It really made It was really just strategically inact and

0:25:50.800 --> 0:25:55.240
<v Speaker 1>it what it I'll tell you what my suspicion is

0:25:55.240 --> 0:25:58.480
<v Speaker 1>is that this is hand ringing inside a Kris world.

0:25:59.000 --> 0:26:02.840
<v Speaker 1>Should they get into these things, they not get into

0:26:02.840 --> 0:26:05.480
<v Speaker 1>these things. And then when you when you wring your hands.

0:26:05.520 --> 0:26:07.920
<v Speaker 1>And this was, by the way, this is the knock

0:26:07.960 --> 0:26:10.479
<v Speaker 1>against her goes back to our original presidential campaign that's

0:26:10.480 --> 0:26:12.000
<v Speaker 1>going to be for medicare for all? Is she not

0:26:12.040 --> 0:26:16.119
<v Speaker 1>going to be for medicare? You know, liberal? And you know,

0:26:16.880 --> 0:26:19.280
<v Speaker 1>you know it's some Sometimes you are who you are,

0:26:19.960 --> 0:26:22.240
<v Speaker 1>and this is who she is, right, which is she's

0:26:22.320 --> 0:26:25.280
<v Speaker 1>never been comfortable with the political identity that other people

0:26:25.359 --> 0:26:28.200
<v Speaker 1>have of her, which means she is always second guess

0:26:28.240 --> 0:26:31.680
<v Speaker 1>her own political identity. Is she the prosecutor? Is she

0:26:31.840 --> 0:26:35.000
<v Speaker 1>the defendant? Is the social justice democrat? Is she the

0:26:35.760 --> 0:26:42.919
<v Speaker 1>moderate pragmatist? Or is she the progressive disruptor? And you know,

0:26:43.000 --> 0:26:46.560
<v Speaker 1>even in how she handled this endorsement totally, you know,

0:26:46.800 --> 0:26:50.120
<v Speaker 1>to me, it was like, well, I don't you know,

0:26:50.400 --> 0:26:54.159
<v Speaker 1>I don't you know, I don't understand what took so

0:26:54.240 --> 0:26:56.359
<v Speaker 1>long other than it's clear it came from her side,

0:26:56.400 --> 0:26:59.760
<v Speaker 1>because it just it made no sense. On the property side, is.

0:26:59.720 --> 0:27:03.240
<v Speaker 2>Getting it makes no sense because it's exactly what you said, Like,

0:27:03.760 --> 0:27:06.800
<v Speaker 2>let's just let's just first of all, you're exactly right.

0:27:06.840 --> 0:27:10.040
<v Speaker 2>This is not in a vacuum. This is consistent with

0:27:10.200 --> 0:27:15.120
<v Speaker 2>indecision and handwringing that has gone literally back to when

0:27:15.160 --> 0:27:17.920
<v Speaker 2>she first ran for president. Now I would argue before that,

0:27:18.200 --> 0:27:22.480
<v Speaker 2>but yeah, it's also like, let's just let's just look

0:27:22.520 --> 0:27:27.480
<v Speaker 2>at it like as in a sterile political decision. If

0:27:27.520 --> 0:27:33.480
<v Speaker 2>you're going to endorse, you do it so that you

0:27:33.640 --> 0:27:37.400
<v Speaker 2>get the potential upside. If you endorse two weeks ago

0:27:38.040 --> 0:27:41.640
<v Speaker 2>and Crockett wins, you say, oh, crocket one, I did

0:27:41.680 --> 0:27:45.639
<v Speaker 2>that the classic Donald Trump, Why the hell would you

0:27:45.880 --> 0:27:52.280
<v Speaker 2>endorse where you literally there's no win scenario. If Crockett wins,

0:27:52.720 --> 0:27:55.119
<v Speaker 2>everyone like us is gonna be like she endorsed her

0:27:55.280 --> 0:27:59.399
<v Speaker 2>two days before the election. If Cricket loses, people like

0:27:59.480 --> 0:28:01.400
<v Speaker 2>us as we're doing it to see, what the hell

0:28:01.400 --> 0:28:02.920
<v Speaker 2>are you doing? Why did you endorse solely?

0:28:03.440 --> 0:28:06.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean maybe if Crockett had narrowly eked it out,

0:28:06.760 --> 0:28:09.080
<v Speaker 1>perhaps Kamala would have been seen as sort of the

0:28:09.359 --> 0:28:11.920
<v Speaker 1>the tipping point at the end. That's about the only

0:28:12.160 --> 0:28:12.680
<v Speaker 1>trying to think.

0:28:13.400 --> 0:28:16.480
<v Speaker 2>Sense to endorse that late in the game, because you're

0:28:16.720 --> 0:28:19.120
<v Speaker 2>not going to get credit for it.

0:28:19.480 --> 0:28:22.920
<v Speaker 1>Look, it's sort of uh, in the in the fantasy

0:28:22.960 --> 0:28:25.320
<v Speaker 1>world where I have one hundred political reporters to assign

0:28:25.359 --> 0:28:29.000
<v Speaker 1>stories to, I probably wouldn't assign the Hey, go figure

0:28:29.040 --> 0:28:31.240
<v Speaker 1>out what took so long? In the Kamala Harris endorsement,

0:28:31.240 --> 0:28:33.920
<v Speaker 1>a jizment Crockett. So this is one of those tiktoks

0:28:33.960 --> 0:28:36.400
<v Speaker 1>that at some point I think, well, this is one

0:28:36.400 --> 0:28:38.480
<v Speaker 1>of those we'll learn this story in like six months

0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:41.200
<v Speaker 1>when somebody sort of as an aside, ask somebody about it,

0:28:41.240 --> 0:28:43.840
<v Speaker 1>and we get the full story. But there's I have

0:28:43.880 --> 0:28:47.520
<v Speaker 1>a feeling that when we find out why this took

0:28:47.600 --> 0:28:50.840
<v Speaker 1>so long, that it will fit the pattern of the

0:28:50.920 --> 0:28:54.680
<v Speaker 1>Harris world's indecisiveness about her own political idea, and I.

0:28:55.240 --> 0:28:58.520
<v Speaker 2>Think it will land ultimately as most of these things have,

0:28:58.600 --> 0:29:02.600
<v Speaker 2>with her back on her right, not just the team,

0:29:02.960 --> 0:29:05.040
<v Speaker 2>but back on her that she was like, do I

0:29:05.040 --> 0:29:06.880
<v Speaker 2>get involved? Do I not get involved? And there were

0:29:06.960 --> 0:29:08.880
<v Speaker 2>some people saying get involved, there's some people saying not

0:29:08.880 --> 0:29:13.200
<v Speaker 2>get involved, like in every campaign, and she just waited

0:29:13.240 --> 0:29:15.160
<v Speaker 2>to it. Which is fascinating, by the way, because you

0:29:15.200 --> 0:29:17.760
<v Speaker 2>know the other politician I always Democrat politician. I always

0:29:17.760 --> 0:29:19.960
<v Speaker 2>think of who the knock on him was, always he's

0:29:20.000 --> 0:29:22.640
<v Speaker 2>too indecisive, Joe Biden. I mean that is that was

0:29:22.760 --> 0:29:25.680
<v Speaker 2>always the knock on Biden, like he can't make any decisions.

0:29:25.680 --> 0:29:27.240
<v Speaker 2>It's why he didn't run for president.

0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:30.800
<v Speaker 1>Does make time around? It goes back to look, there

0:29:30.800 --> 0:29:33.600
<v Speaker 1>are plenty of politicians who don't like to make enemies

0:29:34.400 --> 0:29:36.560
<v Speaker 1>and they don't want to make anybody mad. And I'm

0:29:36.560 --> 0:29:40.840
<v Speaker 1>sure you know in that succeed look, and I want

0:29:40.880 --> 0:29:43.240
<v Speaker 1>to pivot to something else. You know, there are certain

0:29:43.280 --> 0:29:46.400
<v Speaker 1>candidates that also are are crowd pleasers in the moment

0:29:47.680 --> 0:29:52.680
<v Speaker 1>and sometimes right this is the Donald Trump, both positive

0:29:52.680 --> 0:29:54.320
<v Speaker 1>and negative. He tells every crowd what they want to

0:29:54.360 --> 0:29:57.720
<v Speaker 1>hear yep, in the moment, regardless of whether it's a

0:29:57.760 --> 0:30:00.880
<v Speaker 1>contradiction to something he told somebody else a mini later

0:30:00.960 --> 0:30:04.800
<v Speaker 1>to y Yeah, well, I have a feeling. Our friend

0:30:04.800 --> 0:30:07.440
<v Speaker 1>Gavin Newsom pulled one of those on Tuesday night when

0:30:07.440 --> 0:30:10.479
<v Speaker 1>he did a book interview with the Pod Save America

0:30:10.520 --> 0:30:13.240
<v Speaker 1>Guys where he knew the audience was going to be

0:30:13.240 --> 0:30:16.200
<v Speaker 1>super lefty. He knew where the Pod Save America guys

0:30:16.240 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 1>are and particularly in foreign policy and particularly when it

0:30:18.560 --> 0:30:21.400
<v Speaker 1>comes to bb net Yahoo and he and he ended

0:30:21.480 --> 0:30:23.920
<v Speaker 1>up give it, telling them what they wanted to hear,

0:30:24.080 --> 0:30:26.800
<v Speaker 1>using using phrases He's going to come to regret, like

0:30:26.880 --> 0:30:31.040
<v Speaker 1>accusing Israel of being an apartheid nation, and it is

0:30:31.440 --> 0:30:34.200
<v Speaker 1>it is, you know, it is when you use the

0:30:34.360 --> 0:30:38.880
<v Speaker 1>language that is being used to target Jews. Left and right,

0:30:39.760 --> 0:30:41.920
<v Speaker 1>and you're you're sort of giving aid and comfort with

0:30:41.960 --> 0:30:45.040
<v Speaker 1>that ar you know, but it was you know, this

0:30:45.120 --> 0:30:47.800
<v Speaker 1>is this is always something I've always worried about with Gavin,

0:30:47.920 --> 0:30:49.840
<v Speaker 1>is that he's always I mean, the irony is his

0:30:49.840 --> 0:30:51.920
<v Speaker 1>book is still who he is. He's in a hurry.

0:30:52.080 --> 0:30:54.800
<v Speaker 1>He's in a hurry to cement his status as the

0:30:55.240 --> 0:30:59.360
<v Speaker 1>as the as the candidate for the angry Democratic base. Okay,

0:31:00.240 --> 0:31:03.080
<v Speaker 1>but you know, I think that that has a low ceiling.

0:31:03.480 --> 0:31:06.720
<v Speaker 1>And I you know, I don't think it's a I

0:31:06.760 --> 0:31:09.760
<v Speaker 1>put it this way. I think he made a lot.

0:31:10.040 --> 0:31:12.280
<v Speaker 1>He reminded a lot of people of why there's so

0:31:12.360 --> 0:31:15.080
<v Speaker 1>much skepticism his ability to be a national candidate when

0:31:15.080 --> 0:31:17.120
<v Speaker 1>he went to me, when he went when he went

0:31:17.360 --> 0:31:21.440
<v Speaker 1>as it just felt like he was pandering to the crowd.

0:31:21.480 --> 0:31:23.200
<v Speaker 1>It didn't feel like a genuine flip.

0:31:23.560 --> 0:31:26.680
<v Speaker 2>Well, and you know we I think we did it.

0:31:27.080 --> 0:31:29.600
<v Speaker 1>And I'll respect the flip. I'll respect the genuine flip.

0:31:29.600 --> 0:31:31.640
<v Speaker 1>But here's what I would say, And I'm just look,

0:31:31.960 --> 0:31:37.240
<v Speaker 1>I'm I'm are you is it a when you criticize

0:31:37.240 --> 0:31:40.640
<v Speaker 1>the Trump administration? Is it America that does these things?

0:31:40.720 --> 0:31:43.640
<v Speaker 1>Or is it the Trump administration? And this would be

0:31:43.680 --> 0:31:45.560
<v Speaker 1>the you know, I would ask Gavin news From that,

0:31:45.800 --> 0:31:47.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, do you you know if somebody says, you know,

0:31:47.800 --> 0:31:51.000
<v Speaker 1>America is now you know a bunch of thugs that

0:31:51.000 --> 0:31:53.560
<v Speaker 1>that do this or that, or you know, you're you're

0:31:53.600 --> 0:31:55.760
<v Speaker 1>going to attribute it to everybody that lives in the country.

0:31:56.480 --> 0:31:58.080
<v Speaker 1>Do you do that in the United States? Why do

0:31:58.120 --> 0:31:59.400
<v Speaker 1>we do that with Israel all the time?

0:31:59.720 --> 0:32:04.440
<v Speaker 2>I I we talked at the end of twenty twenty

0:32:04.480 --> 0:32:07.120
<v Speaker 2>five about who we thought had good years and bad years,

0:32:07.160 --> 0:32:09.760
<v Speaker 2>and we both agreed that Gavin Newsom then had really

0:32:09.760 --> 0:32:12.680
<v Speaker 2>a remarkable twenty twenty us right, he went from like

0:32:13.840 --> 0:32:16.360
<v Speaker 2>to wow, okay, like either he or Kamala Harris is

0:32:16.360 --> 0:32:21.320
<v Speaker 2>the front runner. But I always remind people that, remember

0:32:21.400 --> 0:32:25.880
<v Speaker 2>how Gavin Newsom started twenty twenty five. He started a

0:32:25.960 --> 0:32:31.680
<v Speaker 2>podcast that was expressly aimed at interviewing people with whom

0:32:31.760 --> 0:32:34.480
<v Speaker 2>he disagreed. So he had Steve Bannon on, he had

0:32:34.520 --> 0:32:38.239
<v Speaker 2>the late Charlie Charlie kirk On, and that clearly was

0:32:38.280 --> 0:32:41.040
<v Speaker 2>a you know what, the Democratic Party is talking to

0:32:41.120 --> 0:32:43.160
<v Speaker 2>themselves too much. We need to talk more.

0:32:43.400 --> 0:32:47.200
<v Speaker 1>And then all of a sudden, Gavin realized way aloud

0:32:47.480 --> 0:32:50.640
<v Speaker 1>from the loud influencer left by the way, if I.

0:32:50.800 --> 0:32:56.960
<v Speaker 2>Troll Donald Trump on Twitter, I and like, my point

0:32:57.080 --> 0:33:01.960
<v Speaker 2>is is, like, don't Gavin Newsome is a politician. I

0:33:02.000 --> 0:33:03.560
<v Speaker 2>mean that in good ways and bad ways and the

0:33:03.600 --> 0:33:07.400
<v Speaker 2>bad way. He didn't decide, you know what the world needs,

0:33:07.440 --> 0:33:09.920
<v Speaker 2>they need me speaking out against Donald Trump. His first

0:33:09.920 --> 0:33:13.640
<v Speaker 2>inclination was after the twenty twenty four election, we need

0:33:13.640 --> 0:33:15.920
<v Speaker 2>to broaden the party out and I'm gonna talk to

0:33:15.920 --> 0:33:18.760
<v Speaker 2>people who with whom I disagree. That didn't go over

0:33:18.960 --> 0:33:22.200
<v Speaker 2>very well. And what started to go over well was

0:33:22.520 --> 0:33:25.479
<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna just troll Trump. I'm gonna give Trump his

0:33:25.560 --> 0:33:29.640
<v Speaker 2>own medicine. And that propelled him. But let's not pretend

0:33:29.680 --> 0:33:32.800
<v Speaker 2>that that was like the first instinct that Kevin Newsom

0:33:32.920 --> 0:33:36.720
<v Speaker 2>had when he saw what had happened in twenty twenty four.

0:33:36.800 --> 0:33:40.560
<v Speaker 2>So I do think the danger for all of these

0:33:40.600 --> 0:33:42.440
<v Speaker 2>people at a national level. I know you know this

0:33:42.560 --> 0:33:46.240
<v Speaker 2>better than me, is it is hard not to tell

0:33:46.280 --> 0:33:48.480
<v Speaker 2>people what they want to hear. You are probably a

0:33:48.520 --> 0:33:53.320
<v Speaker 2>people pleaser. It's why you do this job right, really

0:33:53.520 --> 0:33:56.000
<v Speaker 2>really hard. But the truth is, when you have this

0:33:56.120 --> 0:33:58.320
<v Speaker 2>level of scrutiny when you're running for president, which he

0:33:58.440 --> 0:34:00.600
<v Speaker 2>is you gotta be real careful.

0:34:01.480 --> 0:34:04.400
<v Speaker 1>You know. Look, and we talk about the A word authenticity,

0:34:04.600 --> 0:34:07.720
<v Speaker 1>and you know it's sometimes overused and it's over over

0:34:08.000 --> 0:34:12.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, can be sort of over analyzed. But I

0:34:12.960 --> 0:34:14.840
<v Speaker 1>look at it. You know, it's sort of like Gavin Newsom.

0:34:14.880 --> 0:34:16.480
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's like you have a your your, you

0:34:16.480 --> 0:34:18.839
<v Speaker 1>have your you have a stick shift, and you're trying

0:34:18.840 --> 0:34:20.440
<v Speaker 1>to let me try first gear, let me try say,

0:34:20.520 --> 0:34:21.879
<v Speaker 1>let me, let me try all these different let's see

0:34:21.880 --> 0:34:24.480
<v Speaker 1>what where I can get traction right. And it literally

0:34:24.600 --> 0:34:28.719
<v Speaker 1>was him searching for traction versus be who you are

0:34:28.920 --> 0:34:31.560
<v Speaker 1>and see if the moment meets you, that's it, right,

0:34:31.680 --> 0:34:34.440
<v Speaker 1>Like there's always two you know, it's like are you

0:34:34.440 --> 0:34:36.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, are you create? Are you trying to fit

0:34:37.040 --> 0:34:39.840
<v Speaker 1>the moment? Or are you already there and the moment

0:34:39.920 --> 0:34:41.319
<v Speaker 1>comes to you? Right?

0:34:41.400 --> 0:34:41.600
<v Speaker 2>You know?

0:34:41.680 --> 0:34:45.200
<v Speaker 1>Like Donald Trump, it turns out he didn't. Everybody's like, oh,

0:34:45.440 --> 0:34:49.000
<v Speaker 1>he figured No. Donald Trump has been the same erratic

0:34:49.600 --> 0:34:53.800
<v Speaker 1>crank about all of American governance for the last thirty

0:34:53.800 --> 0:34:54.759
<v Speaker 1>five forty.

0:34:54.560 --> 0:34:57.319
<v Speaker 2>Years and he's had a victim complex his entire adult life.

0:34:57.360 --> 0:34:59.320
<v Speaker 2>It's just it worked in that moment.

0:35:00.200 --> 0:35:03.319
<v Speaker 1>It bit the moment, the Republican Party came to him

0:35:03.560 --> 0:35:07.160
<v Speaker 1>in many ways, right, table is his anger hit. He

0:35:08.400 --> 0:35:14.400
<v Speaker 1>was already a short attention span guy, a a squirrel brain,

0:35:14.760 --> 0:35:19.600
<v Speaker 1>meaning social media, which basically rewards squirrel brain. Right, Oh,

0:35:20.120 --> 0:35:25.080
<v Speaker 1>oh totally, that's you know, so it is in some

0:35:25.120 --> 0:35:28.160
<v Speaker 1>ways and in you know why is why is Trump

0:35:28.239 --> 0:35:30.040
<v Speaker 1>then defended? Well, he is who he is, and he's

0:35:30.080 --> 0:35:32.040
<v Speaker 1>always been this person, and there's a lot of truth

0:35:32.080 --> 0:35:34.759
<v Speaker 1>to that. Right, he may be consistently erratic on a

0:35:34.840 --> 0:35:38.359
<v Speaker 1>day to day way, but in some ways he's he's

0:35:38.600 --> 0:35:46.319
<v Speaker 1>he's consistently inconsistent, authentically Inauthentic's there's a there's always been

0:35:46.320 --> 0:35:48.080
<v Speaker 1>an odd through line to him.

0:35:48.560 --> 0:35:52.960
<v Speaker 2>Absolutely, you and I I think agree. I'm not an economist.

0:35:53.000 --> 0:35:55.000
<v Speaker 2>I'm not going to although most economists say tarifts are

0:35:55.040 --> 0:35:58.600
<v Speaker 2>bad policy, but they're they're terrible politics. I mean, we

0:35:58.640 --> 0:36:01.759
<v Speaker 2>feel I feel very comfortable saying that. But like you

0:36:01.800 --> 0:36:04.120
<v Speaker 2>can go back to interviews in the nineteen eighties where

0:36:04.120 --> 0:36:07.319
<v Speaker 2>like a young businessman, Donald Trump is talking about how

0:36:07.800 --> 0:36:09.640
<v Speaker 2>you know, I think at that point he was talking

0:36:09.640 --> 0:36:13.600
<v Speaker 2>about Japan, but Japan is screwing us munch. So like

0:36:13.960 --> 0:36:17.759
<v Speaker 2>there are he is authentic. It's the same reason why

0:36:17.800 --> 0:36:19.799
<v Speaker 2>I always say those people. It's a great tribute question

0:36:19.880 --> 0:36:22.760
<v Speaker 2>who who is in most polling, the most popular politician

0:36:22.800 --> 0:36:25.439
<v Speaker 2>in the country, active politician in office.

0:36:25.480 --> 0:36:27.840
<v Speaker 1>Is Bernie Sanders.

0:36:27.520 --> 0:36:30.560
<v Speaker 2>Because people agree with him. If you go you can

0:36:30.640 --> 0:36:32.839
<v Speaker 2>go back when he was the mayor of Burlington and

0:36:32.840 --> 0:36:34.680
<v Speaker 2>you're like, oh shit, he's saying the same stuffy saying.

0:36:34.719 --> 0:36:37.920
<v Speaker 1>Now, Actually, our friends at c SPAN, our buddy Howard Mormon,

0:36:37.960 --> 0:36:41.640
<v Speaker 1>could put I think put together this this montage of

0:36:41.719 --> 0:36:44.040
<v Speaker 1>clips of Bernie when he was a House member. I

0:36:44.080 --> 0:36:46.520
<v Speaker 1>mean that when he was sort of the the gadfly

0:36:46.680 --> 0:36:50.400
<v Speaker 1>socialist of the House, and and you know before he

0:36:50.440 --> 0:36:52.920
<v Speaker 1>was a senator and people actually took him more seriously.

0:36:53.520 --> 0:36:55.360
<v Speaker 1>He was saying the same thing. I don't think he

0:36:55.400 --> 0:36:59.280
<v Speaker 1>said billionaires came to him. We didn't have that party.

0:36:59.360 --> 0:37:04.279
<v Speaker 1>And he seen his quote unquote authentic because he he's

0:37:04.280 --> 0:37:07.239
<v Speaker 1>not met the moment. The moment came to him, right, And.

0:37:07.280 --> 0:37:09.439
<v Speaker 2>Who reminds me of that too? On a smaller level,

0:37:09.480 --> 0:37:11.160
<v Speaker 2>Not to go too down far a rabbit hole, but

0:37:11.200 --> 0:37:14.880
<v Speaker 2>remember when Ron Paul. Ron Paul ran for president a

0:37:14.960 --> 0:37:16.799
<v Speaker 2>number of times, but the time that he ran where

0:37:16.840 --> 0:37:21.280
<v Speaker 2>he was like marginally credible, it was because Ron Paul's

0:37:21.400 --> 0:37:25.880
<v Speaker 2>views never changed. It's just that the there became a

0:37:26.000 --> 0:37:29.000
<v Speaker 2>bigger streak of people interested in like, yeah, maybe the

0:37:29.000 --> 0:37:31.520
<v Speaker 2>fat is bad. They were libertarianism is the right way

0:37:31.520 --> 0:37:34.000
<v Speaker 2>to go. Like, it's not like Ron Paul changed.

0:37:34.520 --> 0:37:37.640
<v Speaker 1>Ron Paul twenty oh two was a weirdo. And in fact,

0:37:37.760 --> 0:37:40.520
<v Speaker 1>Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders were literally Statler and Waldorf

0:37:40.560 --> 0:37:43.320
<v Speaker 1>for the House. Totally. They were regularly.

0:37:42.960 --> 0:37:45.399
<v Speaker 2>James traffiican't la where you're like eeah, that guy gets

0:37:45.480 --> 0:37:47.239
<v Speaker 2>up and says some stuff, and like they were.

0:37:47.440 --> 0:37:49.919
<v Speaker 1>And the iriny is that they regularly voted the same

0:37:49.960 --> 0:37:52.440
<v Speaker 1>on some foreign policy stuff. Right, they were totally much

0:37:52.640 --> 0:37:56.279
<v Speaker 1>Paul was an old fashioned isolationist. Paul looked like a

0:37:56.400 --> 0:38:00.279
<v Speaker 1>total extremist during the Bush era and then and by

0:38:00.440 --> 0:38:02.840
<v Speaker 1>it was twenty twelve, right, he ran in Oway, but

0:38:02.880 --> 0:38:06.040
<v Speaker 1>it was twenty twelve where he started. You saw it, yea,

0:38:06.160 --> 0:38:08.400
<v Speaker 1>And in fact he technically finished second to Romney.

0:38:08.920 --> 0:38:11.279
<v Speaker 2>I mean, if you went to any event, and I

0:38:11.320 --> 0:38:11.879
<v Speaker 2>remember he.

0:38:11.880 --> 0:38:14.480
<v Speaker 1>Won, he won a lot of delegate conventions.

0:38:14.520 --> 0:38:16.480
<v Speaker 2>If you were at any cattle call, any kind of

0:38:16.480 --> 0:38:19.520
<v Speaker 2>thing there was like you would be like, well, now

0:38:19.600 --> 0:38:21.480
<v Speaker 2>it wound up being there were a lot of deeply

0:38:21.520 --> 0:38:23.719
<v Speaker 2>committed people, but not enough of them. But the point

0:38:23.800 --> 0:38:28.080
<v Speaker 2>is Ron Paul went from loon to.

0:38:29.960 --> 0:38:33.800
<v Speaker 1>He's the godfather of the anti interventionist wing of the

0:38:33.800 --> 0:38:34.600
<v Speaker 1>the Trump coalition.

0:38:34.920 --> 0:38:35.080
<v Speaker 2>Yep.

0:38:35.800 --> 0:38:39.680
<v Speaker 1>And you know by the way, I you know I did.

0:38:39.719 --> 0:38:42.080
<v Speaker 1>I saw that you promoted my quote unquote hot take

0:38:42.239 --> 0:38:46.759
<v Speaker 1>right about Vans that this is I think. And you know,

0:38:47.040 --> 0:38:50.040
<v Speaker 1>as much as I'm always hesitant to be the to

0:38:50.080 --> 0:38:52.319
<v Speaker 1>be a hot taker on this one, I feel like

0:38:52.360 --> 0:38:54.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't. There's no way you believe it.

0:38:54.239 --> 0:38:56.480
<v Speaker 2>My view is it's not a hot believe it. You're

0:38:56.520 --> 0:38:58.480
<v Speaker 2>not saying you want to get attention. You're saying it

0:38:58.480 --> 0:38:59.279
<v Speaker 2>because you believe it.

0:38:59.520 --> 0:39:01.040
<v Speaker 1>Right, I'm like, I don't see.

0:39:02.000 --> 0:39:04.319
<v Speaker 2>We don't have an I'm good at right ideas, but.

0:39:04.800 --> 0:39:07.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't see others as recoverable for him long term.

0:39:07.160 --> 0:39:09.440
<v Speaker 1>That doesn't mean he won't be the Republican nominee, because

0:39:09.440 --> 0:39:11.960
<v Speaker 1>he will be president.

0:39:12.560 --> 0:39:16.319
<v Speaker 2>Willfully misunderstood the quote bash for that.

0:39:16.880 --> 0:39:18.799
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, No, it's not that we're saying.

0:39:18.840 --> 0:39:21.319
<v Speaker 2>You're saying, I just think a general.

0:39:21.560 --> 0:39:24.960
<v Speaker 1>Well, he just lost the most interesting part of his

0:39:25.040 --> 0:39:29.600
<v Speaker 1>political identity. And and once you lose something that was

0:39:29.800 --> 0:39:32.320
<v Speaker 1>uniquely yours. And when you're vice president, you lose a

0:39:32.320 --> 0:39:36.840
<v Speaker 1>lot of your own political identity and you lose something

0:39:36.880 --> 0:39:39.319
<v Speaker 1>that was uniquely yours, right that that sort of gave

0:39:39.360 --> 0:39:41.680
<v Speaker 1>him right his entrance into this. Right, he's the Iraq

0:39:41.719 --> 0:39:43.919
<v Speaker 1>War veteran that was like, wait a minute, we can't

0:39:44.000 --> 0:39:46.399
<v Speaker 1>keep doing this. We're sending the same people. They all

0:39:46.400 --> 0:39:49.080
<v Speaker 1>are people that lived in the areas of rural Ohio

0:39:49.080 --> 0:39:51.160
<v Speaker 1>that I grew up in. Right, That's who we're sending

0:39:51.200 --> 0:39:53.880
<v Speaker 1>on these wars. We're not sending the sons and daughters

0:39:53.880 --> 0:39:55.880
<v Speaker 1>of Donald J. Trump, you know, and the rich people.

0:39:56.480 --> 0:40:00.560
<v Speaker 1>And he's now lost that identity. It does doesn't mean

0:40:00.640 --> 0:40:02.719
<v Speaker 1>it ends his career. It just means I don't think

0:40:02.719 --> 0:40:04.200
<v Speaker 1>he's ever going to get elected president of the United

0:40:04.239 --> 0:40:07.600
<v Speaker 1>States now, because it's sort of a core part. When

0:40:07.640 --> 0:40:09.920
<v Speaker 1>you lose a core part of your identity, I don't

0:40:09.960 --> 0:40:10.560
<v Speaker 1>know how you recover.

0:40:10.560 --> 0:40:11.399
<v Speaker 2>It's hard to get it back.

0:40:11.640 --> 0:40:13.719
<v Speaker 1>It's hard to get it's almost it's impossible to get.

0:40:13.920 --> 0:40:17.759
<v Speaker 2>And look, yes, being very tightly affiliated with Donald Trump

0:40:17.840 --> 0:40:21.200
<v Speaker 2>in a Republican primary in twenty twenty eight is probably

0:40:21.239 --> 0:40:24.200
<v Speaker 2>I still think net net a very good thing. Being

0:40:24.239 --> 0:40:28.200
<v Speaker 2>associated with Donald Trump in that legacy unless that legacy changes, right.

0:40:28.239 --> 0:40:30.720
<v Speaker 2>I mean, we're talking about a president who's in the

0:40:30.840 --> 0:40:35.720
<v Speaker 2>upper thirties low forties in approval general electorate. The gap

0:40:35.760 --> 0:40:39.080
<v Speaker 2>between what Republicans like and what independence and Democrats like

0:40:39.200 --> 0:40:42.279
<v Speaker 2>is getting an Independence are very much moving over to

0:40:42.680 --> 0:40:44.040
<v Speaker 2>democratic views right now.

0:40:44.320 --> 0:40:47.719
<v Speaker 1>Well, what's interesting, And you know it's funny yesterday, yesterday

0:40:47.800 --> 0:40:50.680
<v Speaker 1>or earlier this week, I was, you know, I've been

0:40:50.719 --> 0:40:54.400
<v Speaker 1>so consumed by the primaries that I sort of didn't

0:40:53.960 --> 0:40:57.240
<v Speaker 1>I wasn't hour to hour paying attention to the Iran

0:40:57.960 --> 0:41:01.160
<v Speaker 1>or spinning that was taking place by the administration. And

0:41:01.200 --> 0:41:03.240
<v Speaker 1>then you sort of step back the next day and absorb,

0:41:03.960 --> 0:41:07.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, first of all, what an utter mess. And

0:41:07.080 --> 0:41:10.160
<v Speaker 1>when you actually put together what happened in Texas on

0:41:10.239 --> 0:41:16.279
<v Speaker 1>Tuesday night, with the absolute erratic nature of trying to

0:41:17.600 --> 0:41:22.279
<v Speaker 1>essentially create a rationale for why you did this, and

0:41:22.320 --> 0:41:26.919
<v Speaker 1>your rationale keeps changing, this has been a disaster week

0:41:27.000 --> 0:41:29.000
<v Speaker 1>for the Republicans that are on the ballot in twenty

0:41:29.000 --> 0:41:32.719
<v Speaker 1>twenty six. It is very difficult to defend what's going

0:41:32.760 --> 0:41:33.560
<v Speaker 1>on right now.

0:41:33.760 --> 0:41:39.280
<v Speaker 2>It's the problem is it's like I don't think Iran

0:41:39.440 --> 0:41:45.919
<v Speaker 2>decides the selection, but Every day Donald Trump is talking

0:41:45.960 --> 0:41:48.880
<v Speaker 2>about Iran or Ecuador or Ukraine in Russia is a

0:41:48.960 --> 0:41:52.279
<v Speaker 2>day he is not Remember the affordability tour that he

0:41:52.440 --> 0:41:54.480
<v Speaker 2>was going to go on that Susie Wilds touted.

0:41:54.520 --> 0:41:57.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm telling you, it's like Infrastructure week, I mean the

0:41:57.520 --> 0:41:59.080
<v Speaker 1>infrastructure week of the second term.

0:41:59.239 --> 0:42:02.680
<v Speaker 2>It's like it's it's March, you know, Like it's like

0:42:03.040 --> 0:42:06.360
<v Speaker 2>that's two months that have been totally pissed away. Not

0:42:06.520 --> 0:42:10.200
<v Speaker 2>only people start making their people's minds start getting They

0:42:10.200 --> 0:42:13.359
<v Speaker 2>don't make their mind up on the day before the election, right,

0:42:13.440 --> 0:42:16.920
<v Speaker 2>the parameters get set months before.

0:42:20.920 --> 0:42:23.520
<v Speaker 1>Do you hate hangovers? We'll say goodbye to hangovers. Out

0:42:23.560 --> 0:42:26.120
<v Speaker 1>of Office gives you the social buzz without the next

0:42:26.200 --> 0:42:28.480
<v Speaker 1>day regret. They're best selling. Out of Office gummies were

0:42:28.520 --> 0:42:31.359
<v Speaker 1>designed to provide a mild, relaxing buzz, boost your mood

0:42:31.520 --> 0:42:35.040
<v Speaker 1>and enhance creativity and relaxation. With five different strengths, you

0:42:35.080 --> 0:42:37.239
<v Speaker 1>can tailor the dose to fit your vibe, from a

0:42:37.360 --> 0:42:41.440
<v Speaker 1>gentle one point five milligram micro dose to their newest

0:42:41.560 --> 0:42:45.560
<v Speaker 1>fifteen milligram gummy for a more elevated experience. Their THHC

0:42:45.719 --> 0:42:49.040
<v Speaker 1>beverages and gummies are a modern mindful alternative to a

0:42:49.080 --> 0:42:51.520
<v Speaker 1>glass of wine or a cocktail. And I'll tell you this,

0:42:51.840 --> 0:42:54.719
<v Speaker 1>I've given up booze. I don't like the hangovers. I

0:42:55.080 --> 0:42:58.440
<v Speaker 1>prefer the gummy experience. Soul is a wellness brand that

0:42:58.520 --> 0:43:02.000
<v Speaker 1>believes feeling good should be fun and easy. Soul specializes

0:43:02.040 --> 0:43:05.680
<v Speaker 1>in delicious HEMP derived THHC and CBD products, all designed

0:43:05.719 --> 0:43:08.719
<v Speaker 1>to boost your mood and simply help you unwind. So

0:43:08.800 --> 0:43:11.040
<v Speaker 1>if you struggle to switch off at night, Sol also

0:43:11.120 --> 0:43:14.120
<v Speaker 1>has a variety of products specifically designed to just simply

0:43:14.160 --> 0:43:16.560
<v Speaker 1>help you get a better night's sleep, including their top

0:43:16.680 --> 0:43:20.760
<v Speaker 1>selling sleepy gummies. It's a fan favorite for deep restorative sleep.

0:43:21.040 --> 0:43:23.200
<v Speaker 1>So bring on the good vibes and treat yourself to

0:43:23.280 --> 0:43:27.040
<v Speaker 1>Soul today. Right now, Soul is offering my audience thirty

0:43:27.080 --> 0:43:29.959
<v Speaker 1>percent off your entire order, So go to get sold

0:43:29.960 --> 0:43:34.080
<v Speaker 1>dot Com use the promo code toodcast. Don't forget that code.

0:43:34.400 --> 0:43:39.000
<v Speaker 1>That's getsold dot Com promo code toodcast for thirty percent off.

0:43:40.360 --> 0:43:44.000
<v Speaker 1>Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from

0:43:44.040 --> 0:43:47.120
<v Speaker 1>personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away.

0:43:47.160 --> 0:43:49.520
<v Speaker 1>We didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in

0:43:49.600 --> 0:43:53.920
<v Speaker 1>the best shape. My mother single mother now widow, myself

0:43:54.040 --> 0:43:55.840
<v Speaker 1>sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to

0:43:55.840 --> 0:43:59.000
<v Speaker 1>pay for college? And lo and behold, my dad had

0:43:59.080 --> 0:44:02.120
<v Speaker 1>one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot,

0:44:02.600 --> 0:44:05.239
<v Speaker 1>but it was important at the time, and it's why

0:44:05.440 --> 0:44:08.560
<v Speaker 1>I was able to go to college. Little did he

0:44:08.760 --> 0:44:12.480
<v Speaker 1>know how important that would be in that moment. Well,

0:44:12.640 --> 0:44:14.680
<v Speaker 1>guess what. That's why I am here to tell you

0:44:14.719 --> 0:44:17.640
<v Speaker 1>about Etho's life. They can provide you with peace of

0:44:17.719 --> 0:44:21.040
<v Speaker 1>mind knowing your family is protected even if the worst

0:44:21.160 --> 0:44:24.080
<v Speaker 1>comes to pass. Ethos is an online platform that makes

0:44:24.160 --> 0:44:27.760
<v Speaker 1>getting life insurance fast and easy, all designed to protect

0:44:27.800 --> 0:44:31.800
<v Speaker 1>your family's future in minutes, not months. There's no complicated process,

0:44:31.920 --> 0:44:35.560
<v Speaker 1>and it's one hundred percent online. There's no medical exam

0:44:35.640 --> 0:44:38.800
<v Speaker 1>require you just answer a few health questions online. You

0:44:38.840 --> 0:44:40.600
<v Speaker 1>can get a quote in as little as ten minutes,

0:44:40.640 --> 0:44:43.680
<v Speaker 1>and you can get same day coverage without ever leaving

0:44:43.880 --> 0:44:46.680
<v Speaker 1>your home. You can get up to three million dollars

0:44:46.719 --> 0:44:48.880
<v Speaker 1>in coverage, and some policies start as low as two

0:44:48.920 --> 0:44:52.000
<v Speaker 1>dollars a day that would be billed monthly. As of

0:44:52.080 --> 0:44:55.200
<v Speaker 1>March twenty twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number

0:44:55.280 --> 0:44:59.560
<v Speaker 1>one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect

0:44:59.600 --> 0:45:03.040
<v Speaker 1>your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free

0:45:03.120 --> 0:45:07.320
<v Speaker 1>quoted Ethos dot com slash chuck. So again that's Ethos

0:45:07.440 --> 0:45:12.000
<v Speaker 1>dot com slash chuck. Application times may vary and the

0:45:12.120 --> 0:45:15.279
<v Speaker 1>rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me, life

0:45:15.320 --> 0:45:17.960
<v Speaker 1>insurance is something you should really think about it, especially

0:45:18.400 --> 0:45:24.480
<v Speaker 1>if you've got a growing family. You know, we've seen

0:45:24.480 --> 0:45:28.279
<v Speaker 1>all these studies that indicate this. What the perception of

0:45:28.520 --> 0:45:32.840
<v Speaker 1>what the public believes the economy is like in June

0:45:33.040 --> 0:45:36.600
<v Speaker 1>Memorial Day is how they'll vote at the ballot box, right,

0:45:36.760 --> 0:45:39.600
<v Speaker 1>even if things start to well, it's not that far

0:45:39.680 --> 0:45:44.720
<v Speaker 1>And b his what he's done right now is actually

0:45:44.760 --> 0:45:47.720
<v Speaker 1>screwed up the economy. Stock markets you know, been tanking.

0:45:48.440 --> 0:45:50.600
<v Speaker 1>You know, I go back, Pam BONDI a couple of

0:45:50.600 --> 0:45:53.680
<v Speaker 1>weeks ago. Why aren't we talking about Dow fifty thousand? Hey,

0:45:53.719 --> 0:45:56.840
<v Speaker 1>guess what now? Hasn't been in fifty thousand since you

0:45:56.920 --> 0:46:00.600
<v Speaker 1>opened your mouth, miss Attorney General. It's been sitting and

0:46:00.680 --> 0:46:03.560
<v Speaker 1>it's now below forty nine. So do you want to

0:46:03.640 --> 0:46:04.200
<v Speaker 1>talk about that?

0:46:04.800 --> 0:46:06.080
<v Speaker 2>I mean, you know, or do you want to talk

0:46:06.080 --> 0:46:09.960
<v Speaker 2>you about the Upstate is previously your latching your the

0:46:10.120 --> 0:46:13.160
<v Speaker 2>economy is good. Argument that Donald Trump has done to

0:46:13.440 --> 0:46:16.799
<v Speaker 2>the stock market is literally political malpractice. I mean, it's

0:46:16.840 --> 0:46:18.000
<v Speaker 2>just so dumb.

0:46:18.360 --> 0:46:21.680
<v Speaker 1>Because you can't control it well, and this sort of

0:46:21.719 --> 0:46:23.879
<v Speaker 1>pivots and it's sort of like, you know, I want

0:46:23.920 --> 0:46:26.719
<v Speaker 1>to I want to read you this anonymous quote that

0:46:26.800 --> 0:46:30.760
<v Speaker 1>was in Playbook, because this is the what actual elected

0:46:30.840 --> 0:46:35.799
<v Speaker 1>Republicans are hearing from their advisors. And this is characterized

0:46:35.800 --> 0:46:38.440
<v Speaker 1>as a person close to the White House telling Politico,

0:46:38.920 --> 0:46:41.600
<v Speaker 1>I have no problem blowing up the Iranians, but when

0:46:41.640 --> 0:46:43.960
<v Speaker 1>you're at war, that is seventy five percent of your time.

0:46:44.080 --> 0:46:45.799
<v Speaker 1>This is what Susie Wallace is going to be doing.

0:46:45.880 --> 0:46:48.320
<v Speaker 1>This is what James Blair, the White House political director,

0:46:48.600 --> 0:46:50.400
<v Speaker 1>will be doing. This is what senior staff will be

0:46:50.440 --> 0:46:52.800
<v Speaker 1>dealing with. And that is a problem. He goes, it

0:46:52.920 --> 0:46:56.000
<v Speaker 1>needs to get over quick. Otherwise this is an effing nightmare.

0:46:56.239 --> 0:46:58.319
<v Speaker 1>It already is a nightmare because you've got the Mega

0:46:58.400 --> 0:47:01.239
<v Speaker 1>Coalition just tearing at the seams. Anything in a game

0:47:01.320 --> 0:47:04.200
<v Speaker 1>of subtraction right now is effing disastrous. Anything that we

0:47:04.280 --> 0:47:06.640
<v Speaker 1>do that hurts our own base is catastrophic. They need

0:47:06.719 --> 0:47:08.920
<v Speaker 1>to explain to the American people and they need, frankly,

0:47:08.960 --> 0:47:12.239
<v Speaker 1>to do it pretty quickly and specifically to the Republican base. Yeah,

0:47:12.480 --> 0:47:16.279
<v Speaker 1>and it's already they're all over the place. Was it

0:47:16.360 --> 0:47:19.920
<v Speaker 1>the Saudis that talked it's into it? Was it the Israel?

0:47:20.120 --> 0:47:22.440
<v Speaker 2>Did MBS convince Donald Trump do it? Did we do

0:47:22.560 --> 0:47:24.520
<v Speaker 2>do as Israel was going in any way?

0:47:25.400 --> 0:47:28.120
<v Speaker 1>Or And then this idea that we didn't have a

0:47:28.160 --> 0:47:31.520
<v Speaker 1>plan to evacuate Americans from the region because it was

0:47:31.600 --> 0:47:34.759
<v Speaker 1>too quick, Well, there's also reporting that indicates that they

0:47:34.880 --> 0:47:38.080
<v Speaker 1>delayed this a week because of weather. They were actually

0:47:38.080 --> 0:47:42.160
<v Speaker 1>going to do this the weekend before the State of

0:47:42.160 --> 0:47:45.880
<v Speaker 1>the Year, before State of the Union, and it literally

0:47:45.960 --> 0:47:50.240
<v Speaker 1>weather was the only reason they decided to tap the brakes.

0:47:50.840 --> 0:47:54.040
<v Speaker 1>So meaning you were preparing, you were preparing long enough

0:47:54.080 --> 0:47:57.040
<v Speaker 1>to send two big time aircraft carriers to the region.

0:47:57.480 --> 0:48:00.440
<v Speaker 1>You don't think about a plan to evacuate a Americans

0:48:00.480 --> 0:48:02.920
<v Speaker 1>out of the Middle East. And now you're basically like

0:48:03.040 --> 0:48:06.800
<v Speaker 1>tough luck. You've got John Rahm, a golfer, having to

0:48:06.920 --> 0:48:09.040
<v Speaker 1>send his own plane to do buy me b Look,

0:48:09.080 --> 0:48:11.719
<v Speaker 1>he's nobody's crying for him. They got money to do

0:48:11.840 --> 0:48:16.120
<v Speaker 1>private plane stuff. God bless him. But the United States

0:48:16.200 --> 0:48:18.759
<v Speaker 1>government isn't going to look out for its own US

0:48:18.840 --> 0:48:22.719
<v Speaker 1>citizens in the region. And the dismissiveness of Trump on

0:48:22.880 --> 0:48:28.080
<v Speaker 1>this is you know, uh, these are these are his own,

0:48:28.360 --> 0:48:29.560
<v Speaker 1>these are his own voters.

0:48:29.960 --> 0:48:33.120
<v Speaker 2>And what what was the biggest foreign policy critique that

0:48:33.280 --> 0:48:36.439
<v Speaker 2>Trump latched onto in the twenty twenty four campaign. Joe

0:48:36.560 --> 0:48:39.880
<v Speaker 2>Biden mishandled the ending of Afghanistan. People were left there

0:48:39.880 --> 0:48:41.960
<v Speaker 2>who shouldn't have been left, Like, it's all I mean,

0:48:42.040 --> 0:48:45.200
<v Speaker 2>it's it's it's almost two on the nose.

0:48:45.560 --> 0:48:49.240
<v Speaker 1>If atocracy or a currency, Trump would even be wealthier

0:48:49.280 --> 0:48:49.640
<v Speaker 1>than he is.

0:48:50.040 --> 0:48:52.480
<v Speaker 2>Yes, I mean it's yeah, I mean, and that's nothing

0:48:52.600 --> 0:48:56.399
<v Speaker 2>that we're not even getting into the like Tulci Gabbard said,

0:48:56.520 --> 0:48:58.839
<v Speaker 2>we can't go to war with Iraq. JD. Van said

0:48:58.840 --> 0:49:01.480
<v Speaker 2>there shouldn't be a war with the with Aron Rather. J. D.

0:49:01.600 --> 0:49:03.000
<v Speaker 2>Vance said the same, you know what I mean, Like, oh,

0:49:03.200 --> 0:49:05.560
<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump said we got to end forever wars. It's

0:49:05.600 --> 0:49:10.360
<v Speaker 2>like and and and even Chuck, is it.

0:49:10.520 --> 0:49:11.560
<v Speaker 1>A war or not?

0:49:11.800 --> 0:49:14.760
<v Speaker 2>They can't even agree within themselves on Mark.

0:49:15.200 --> 0:49:19.080
<v Speaker 1>The Mark Wayne Mullin, I mean, it was you know

0:49:19.160 --> 0:49:20.919
<v Speaker 1>what you needed, you know when they did that. There's

0:49:21.000 --> 0:49:24.040
<v Speaker 1>this Mark Wade Mullin like back and forth, you just

0:49:24.160 --> 0:49:26.640
<v Speaker 1>called it a war. Well it's you know, you know

0:49:28.040 --> 0:49:29.719
<v Speaker 1>that used to be the way Veep would end. And

0:49:29.800 --> 0:49:31.479
<v Speaker 1>you just sort of play the music, right.

0:49:32.200 --> 0:49:35.320
<v Speaker 2>Cloe is closer to a documentary than people realize.

0:49:35.800 --> 0:49:38.960
<v Speaker 1>Just play the beat music out of that, Mark Wade Mullein,

0:49:39.080 --> 0:49:41.920
<v Speaker 1>play the cub music, you know, or what of the

0:49:42.320 --> 0:49:44.160
<v Speaker 1>one of the two, and you just walk away. You're like,

0:49:44.280 --> 0:49:45.000
<v Speaker 1>are you kidding me?

0:49:45.560 --> 0:49:46.839
<v Speaker 2>You know, it doesn't make any sense.

0:49:47.200 --> 0:49:49.040
<v Speaker 1>It just doesn't. It just doesn't.

0:49:49.080 --> 0:49:50.439
<v Speaker 2>I mean, there's no way to make it make sense.

0:49:51.960 --> 0:50:00.640
<v Speaker 1>Well, now we've got a let's let's large large picture here. Yeah,

0:50:02.160 --> 0:50:03.360
<v Speaker 1>how in play is the Senate?

0:50:05.880 --> 0:50:09.640
<v Speaker 2>So I looked, I looked kind of mid week at

0:50:09.800 --> 0:50:13.080
<v Speaker 2>the prediction markets, which we can debate forever, and I

0:50:13.160 --> 0:50:15.000
<v Speaker 2>know we've talked about like how accurate is that?

0:50:15.600 --> 0:50:18.080
<v Speaker 1>Well, the production markets look really accurate when it came

0:50:18.200 --> 0:50:20.960
<v Speaker 1>to their confidence in tall Rico and look really stupid

0:50:21.080 --> 0:50:24.600
<v Speaker 1>in their confidence and backstent exactly. So it's like, you know, right,

0:50:24.680 --> 0:50:26.680
<v Speaker 1>there's no difference exactly.

0:50:27.480 --> 0:50:31.200
<v Speaker 2>They're in the low forties for Democrats. Chances of taking

0:50:31.239 --> 0:50:31.600
<v Speaker 2>the scent.

0:50:31.840 --> 0:50:35.160
<v Speaker 1>That's all. That's a right ish, that's a six point hike.

0:50:35.320 --> 0:50:37.320
<v Speaker 1>By the way, since the end of twenty five. Remember

0:50:37.520 --> 0:50:40.560
<v Speaker 1>it's gone up. It was one in three, rightly, And

0:50:40.640 --> 0:50:45.080
<v Speaker 1>I remember at the time I had said at that price, uh,

0:50:45.680 --> 0:50:48.280
<v Speaker 1>it's a goodbye, because I think that that the perception

0:50:48.400 --> 0:50:51.600
<v Speaker 1>of Democrats chances in the Senate. And that's the interesting

0:50:51.640 --> 0:50:54.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, that to me is what I will concede.

0:50:54.680 --> 0:50:57.480
<v Speaker 1>What makes the prediction markets interesting to me is the

0:50:57.560 --> 0:51:00.879
<v Speaker 1>ability to cash a ticket before the result happens. Where

0:51:01.200 --> 0:51:03.200
<v Speaker 1>it is now how she.

0:51:04.040 --> 0:51:06.480
<v Speaker 2>On Calshi and this will this obviously can move. But

0:51:06.600 --> 0:51:11.280
<v Speaker 2>it's fifty five percent chance Republicans control the Senate. Forty

0:51:11.400 --> 0:51:16.000
<v Speaker 2>five percent chance the Senate. Now that's that actual might

0:51:16.080 --> 0:51:19.360
<v Speaker 2>be a little artificial high off of tall Rico winning

0:51:19.400 --> 0:51:23.200
<v Speaker 2>and they're being a runoff and on the Republican side market,

0:51:23.360 --> 0:51:29.319
<v Speaker 2>these markets are very susceptible the random news occurrence, right,

0:51:30.000 --> 0:51:34.560
<v Speaker 2>But what but it tells you where, It tells you

0:51:34.600 --> 0:51:35.840
<v Speaker 2>where people's minds are, and.

0:51:36.120 --> 0:51:38.680
<v Speaker 1>They're starting to pay more attention to Alaska and Iowa.

0:51:38.760 --> 0:51:40.840
<v Speaker 2>All if you have to win, if you have to

0:51:41.000 --> 0:51:43.680
<v Speaker 2>net at a minimum three, if Murkowski maybe in the

0:51:43.760 --> 0:51:46.040
<v Speaker 2>chuck tout theory, switches parties. But let's just let's put

0:51:46.040 --> 0:51:48.359
<v Speaker 2>that out of mind, and let's say it's for if

0:51:48.400 --> 0:51:51.200
<v Speaker 2>you have to net for what you cannot do. We've

0:51:51.280 --> 0:51:54.680
<v Speaker 2>learned this election after election you cannot only have four

0:51:54.800 --> 0:51:57.279
<v Speaker 2>Republican seats where you have any chance. It's just you

0:51:57.360 --> 0:52:00.320
<v Speaker 2>have no margin, right, And I think what they've done is,

0:52:00.360 --> 0:52:01.920
<v Speaker 2>I think you have to feel really good if you're

0:52:01.960 --> 0:52:03.080
<v Speaker 2>a Democrat about.

0:52:02.960 --> 0:52:04.280
<v Speaker 1>Roy Cooper in North Carolina.

0:52:05.200 --> 0:52:07.440
<v Speaker 2>Let's see about the primary in Maine. But it's you know,

0:52:07.520 --> 0:52:09.360
<v Speaker 2>it's a state Kamala Harrison one, it's going to be

0:52:09.400 --> 0:52:11.560
<v Speaker 2>a Democratic year. I never count Susan Colin top. But

0:52:11.560 --> 0:52:13.520
<v Speaker 2>you got to feel good there, you know. And then

0:52:13.600 --> 0:52:20.760
<v Speaker 2>it gets down to the kind of like Okay, Alaska, Iowa, Texas.

0:52:22.040 --> 0:52:25.800
<v Speaker 1>What about Nebraska. I mean, you know, it's a tie

0:52:26.000 --> 0:52:27.120
<v Speaker 1>tide race right now.

0:52:29.480 --> 0:52:31.480
<v Speaker 2>The point is is the fact that we can throw

0:52:31.560 --> 0:52:36.080
<v Speaker 2>those out there suggests to me that they have enough

0:52:37.239 --> 0:52:40.239
<v Speaker 2>pieces on the playing field where it doesn't have to

0:52:40.320 --> 0:52:44.239
<v Speaker 2>be either we pull a royal flush or nothing, right,

0:52:44.440 --> 0:52:46.640
<v Speaker 2>so like there are different paths to get there.

0:52:47.080 --> 0:52:49.800
<v Speaker 1>I also I made the case of my podcast on

0:52:49.880 --> 0:52:53.680
<v Speaker 1>Wednesday that this is actually not that expensive of a

0:52:53.800 --> 0:52:56.120
<v Speaker 1>cycle when you look at the seats that the Democrats

0:52:56.160 --> 0:53:00.080
<v Speaker 1>have to defend. You're looking at Georgia and Michigan. In

0:53:00.200 --> 0:53:02.680
<v Speaker 1>I would argue Minnesota, in New Hampshire lately, my soft

0:53:02.680 --> 0:53:03.400
<v Speaker 1>will raise.

0:53:03.280 --> 0:53:05.000
<v Speaker 2>So much on his own r that you probably aren't

0:53:05.000 --> 0:53:05.920
<v Speaker 2>going to have to handle that.

0:53:06.000 --> 0:53:07.840
<v Speaker 1>You know, they don't have a New York or California

0:53:07.960 --> 0:53:10.360
<v Speaker 1>that they're spending, or Pennsylvania or in Illinois even or

0:53:10.400 --> 0:53:13.000
<v Speaker 1>even Illinois right Republicans aren't putting that in play, so

0:53:13.120 --> 0:53:16.960
<v Speaker 1>they don't have expensive races in the biggest states. So

0:53:17.080 --> 0:53:20.719
<v Speaker 1>the question is how and this gets it to do

0:53:20.920 --> 0:53:26.279
<v Speaker 1>you if you're Chuck Schumer, you're JB. Persh, do you

0:53:26.360 --> 0:53:27.759
<v Speaker 1>play in Texas in the run.

0:53:28.280 --> 0:53:30.040
<v Speaker 2>How much do you believe in Texas? That's it?

0:53:30.640 --> 0:53:33.320
<v Speaker 1>Do you really do you work hard to help Paxton

0:53:33.400 --> 0:53:35.560
<v Speaker 1>win that runoff? Do you? And how do you do it?

0:53:35.680 --> 0:53:39.480
<v Speaker 1>Do you do the positive ad that thanks John Cornyn

0:53:39.600 --> 0:53:42.759
<v Speaker 1>for being a gun control advocate? You know, do you

0:53:42.880 --> 0:53:45.400
<v Speaker 1>do that kind of starkiness or do you do it

0:53:45.520 --> 0:53:47.960
<v Speaker 1>the other way of ken Paxton is.

0:53:48.280 --> 0:53:53.080
<v Speaker 2>Too close to conservative for Texas sponsored by the Democratic Party,

0:53:53.480 --> 0:53:55.080
<v Speaker 2>he's too right or he's too.

0:53:54.960 --> 0:54:01.200
<v Speaker 1>Pro Trump right the way totally. If they're serious about

0:54:01.239 --> 0:54:04.120
<v Speaker 1>winning the Senate. We see stuff like that, and you

0:54:04.600 --> 0:54:06.480
<v Speaker 1>so you could pay probably and I don't, and I

0:54:06.560 --> 0:54:08.160
<v Speaker 1>wonder if they'll do it. I'll be curious.

0:54:08.560 --> 0:54:12.680
<v Speaker 2>That's also a cheaper day. I think if you meddle

0:54:12.880 --> 0:54:18.879
<v Speaker 2>in that runoff, then if like you feel like you've

0:54:18.920 --> 0:54:21.520
<v Speaker 2>got to go in for twenty five million to make

0:54:21.560 --> 0:54:24.320
<v Speaker 2>any impact in a general right, like you could probably

0:54:24.400 --> 0:54:29.279
<v Speaker 2>for ten million ish make make a dent potentially in

0:54:29.360 --> 0:54:32.840
<v Speaker 2>the runoff pro Paxton. It's a little bit dangerous. But

0:54:32.920 --> 0:54:34.719
<v Speaker 2>at the same time, I think the only people who

0:54:34.760 --> 0:54:36.719
<v Speaker 2>are like I can't believe filling the blank party is

0:54:36.760 --> 0:54:38.640
<v Speaker 2>meddling with other fill in the blank party are like

0:54:39.640 --> 0:54:42.400
<v Speaker 2>media types. I don't think the average person gives a

0:54:42.480 --> 0:54:45.200
<v Speaker 2>crap No, Like I just don't think they care. It's

0:54:45.280 --> 0:54:47.719
<v Speaker 2>like people who bang the drum on campaign finance. For me, yes,

0:54:48.400 --> 0:54:52.200
<v Speaker 2>big money is less is more powerful now and less

0:54:52.239 --> 0:54:54.600
<v Speaker 2>transparent than ever before. You know how many voters care

0:54:54.640 --> 0:54:55.920
<v Speaker 2>about it? Almost no?

0:54:56.080 --> 0:54:59.320
<v Speaker 1>No, And look it should be it should be a

0:54:59.360 --> 0:55:01.840
<v Speaker 1>bothers voter. But you know, good luck we well we

0:55:01.920 --> 0:55:04.000
<v Speaker 1>were just we mentioned in passing race. We can talk

0:55:04.040 --> 0:55:04.440
<v Speaker 1>more about it.

0:55:04.520 --> 0:55:07.880
<v Speaker 2>But the Illinois racement is just gross. It's great, it's gross,

0:55:08.440 --> 0:55:10.680
<v Speaker 2>but like again, these people, people don't see it. It

0:55:10.719 --> 0:55:13.240
<v Speaker 2>gets disclosed late in all these super packs and stuff.

0:55:13.239 --> 0:55:17.239
<v Speaker 2>It's like, you know, the Committee to Protect Goodness and Light. Well,

0:55:17.239 --> 0:55:19.040
<v Speaker 2>that seems like a good group, but what's wrong, Like

0:55:19.120 --> 0:55:20.759
<v Speaker 2>it's you know, people don't see it and they don't

0:55:20.800 --> 0:55:23.040
<v Speaker 2>engage at the level we're at the point is is

0:55:23.120 --> 0:55:26.520
<v Speaker 2>like I think, you the minor hit you might take

0:55:26.600 --> 0:55:30.800
<v Speaker 2>for meddling, it probably is well worth the potential upside

0:55:30.800 --> 0:55:33.000
<v Speaker 2>because if Cornin is the nominee, Tallery.

0:55:33.719 --> 0:55:37.160
<v Speaker 1>By the way meddling works, okay, And do we have.

0:55:37.200 --> 0:55:40.719
<v Speaker 2>Any doubt, Like I think Tallarico loses to corn in

0:55:41.000 --> 0:55:42.279
<v Speaker 2>fifty four to forty six.

0:55:43.239 --> 0:55:46.480
<v Speaker 1>I would, I would probably say it's more like Cruise Meadow.

0:55:46.600 --> 0:55:48.560
<v Speaker 1>But I agree, I think it's two to three points.

0:55:48.719 --> 0:55:50.760
<v Speaker 1>Like I okay, but but it's very.

0:55:50.760 --> 0:55:54.920
<v Speaker 2>Hard to see go beating Cornyn, even in a really.

0:55:54.719 --> 0:55:58.080
<v Speaker 1>Good democratic I think corn gets forty seven of corn It.

0:55:58.200 --> 0:56:01.120
<v Speaker 1>I think Tallarico gets forty. I think his Florida's going

0:56:01.160 --> 0:56:02.920
<v Speaker 1>to be forty seven forty eight. I think it's Flora's

0:56:02.920 --> 0:56:04.960
<v Speaker 1>beadows Florida where is against Paxton.

0:56:05.280 --> 0:56:08.359
<v Speaker 2>I think if you ran the race one hundred times.

0:56:08.400 --> 0:56:10.879
<v Speaker 2>I think Paxson would win it more times in tall Rico.

0:56:11.080 --> 0:56:13.399
<v Speaker 2>But it's not a lot more times than tall Rico,

0:56:13.480 --> 0:56:15.440
<v Speaker 2>do you know what I mean? Like it's and so

0:56:15.560 --> 0:56:18.279
<v Speaker 2>it's like do you do you place a bet there?

0:56:19.400 --> 0:56:22.279
<v Speaker 2>And and like you said, Texas ain't cheap, So it's

0:56:22.480 --> 0:56:26.640
<v Speaker 2>it's you know, how do you feel? I'm fascinated by

0:56:26.680 --> 0:56:28.480
<v Speaker 2>the rankings of Like I think we would all agree

0:56:28.560 --> 0:56:31.799
<v Speaker 2>North Carolina and Maine are clearly Democrats' best chances, right,

0:56:32.239 --> 0:56:36.480
<v Speaker 2>But it's like stuff, Then how do we sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas,

0:56:36.520 --> 0:56:39.799
<v Speaker 2>and Iowa? Like, how do you That's I think.

0:56:40.080 --> 0:56:41.880
<v Speaker 1>I look and we had a couple of guests make

0:56:41.960 --> 0:56:44.759
<v Speaker 1>this case last night. I I think I agree that

0:56:44.880 --> 0:56:47.400
<v Speaker 1>Alaska is the next best place because you have somebody

0:56:47.440 --> 0:56:50.000
<v Speaker 1>that actually won state wide. She's one state wide, right,

0:56:50.520 --> 0:56:52.480
<v Speaker 1>And yes, I know Sharon Brown has and yes, the

0:56:52.560 --> 0:56:54.880
<v Speaker 1>last time he won was in a midterm year. That

0:56:55.120 --> 0:56:58.400
<v Speaker 1>is true. You know, I do think, you know, I

0:56:58.480 --> 0:56:59.839
<v Speaker 1>don't know if he fits the moment.

0:57:00.520 --> 0:57:04.600
<v Speaker 2>I think that he's had a lot of electric offices.

0:57:04.480 --> 0:57:07.360
<v Speaker 1>There is he's he's got a high floor, low ceiling.

0:57:07.480 --> 0:57:11.279
<v Speaker 1>I think we know this about share, And it may

0:57:11.320 --> 0:57:13.320
<v Speaker 1>be that you could spend fifty million dollars on that

0:57:13.440 --> 0:57:15.400
<v Speaker 1>race and he'll get forty eight percent, And you can

0:57:15.400 --> 0:57:17.560
<v Speaker 1>correct five million dollars in that race and he'll get

0:57:17.600 --> 0:57:18.440
<v Speaker 1>forty eight percent.

0:57:18.600 --> 0:57:20.840
<v Speaker 2>Now a half percent, right exactly.

0:57:20.920 --> 0:57:23.320
<v Speaker 1>There's there's an argument to be made that money isn't

0:57:23.400 --> 0:57:27.040
<v Speaker 1>going to be what decides as relative. It really is

0:57:27.080 --> 0:57:30.880
<v Speaker 1>about Republican turnout, you know. And is there a depression

0:57:31.400 --> 0:57:34.360
<v Speaker 1>a little bit? And do Independence come in in greater number?

0:57:34.480 --> 0:57:37.440
<v Speaker 1>Do you get a supercharge of Democratic voters to show

0:57:37.520 --> 0:57:41.720
<v Speaker 1>up and Independence break sixty forty rather than say fifty

0:57:41.760 --> 0:57:42.680
<v Speaker 1>three forty seven?

0:57:42.920 --> 0:57:46.120
<v Speaker 2>Totally, you know, And I don't know if the intrigued

0:57:46.200 --> 0:57:50.480
<v Speaker 2>by Iowa, if Josh Turik is the nominee, we had somebody.

0:57:50.560 --> 0:57:53.600
<v Speaker 1>I think his story is interesting that totally wrote off

0:57:53.640 --> 0:57:57.240
<v Speaker 1>Iowa because Jody Ernst wasn't. And I'm just sitting there going, yeah,

0:57:57.680 --> 0:58:02.800
<v Speaker 1>you've never with all respect you know, if you if

0:58:02.840 --> 0:58:06.040
<v Speaker 1>you've not seen Jonie Ernstein, the trail's no good like

0:58:06.480 --> 0:58:07.800
<v Speaker 1>a really good campaigner.

0:58:07.920 --> 0:58:11.120
<v Speaker 2>So and like Ashley is a good nominee, She's going

0:58:11.200 --> 0:58:14.040
<v Speaker 2>to raise money, but like she never runs statewide before.

0:58:14.200 --> 0:58:14.800
<v Speaker 1>And again.

0:58:16.400 --> 0:58:20.360
<v Speaker 2>The wind in the face of Republicans and it's like

0:58:21.160 --> 0:58:24.360
<v Speaker 2>turk to me. You know again. Paralympian he won two

0:58:24.440 --> 0:58:27.120
<v Speaker 2>gold medals as a Paralympian basketball player. The guy's got

0:58:27.160 --> 0:58:29.680
<v Speaker 2>an amazing story. He's I think if he's the nominee,

0:58:30.080 --> 0:58:32.680
<v Speaker 2>be really hard to attack. That's not easy to attack

0:58:33.560 --> 0:58:36.840
<v Speaker 2>like and may have it. He represents a district that

0:58:37.160 --> 0:58:40.600
<v Speaker 2>Trump won, like, there's there's some there there. I'm kind

0:58:40.640 --> 0:58:41.120
<v Speaker 2>of keeping that.

0:58:41.160 --> 0:58:44.360
<v Speaker 1>One on hold, so let me try to land this plane.

0:58:44.480 --> 0:58:46.520
<v Speaker 1>I did a substack this week about sort of kicking

0:58:46.560 --> 0:58:49.240
<v Speaker 1>off the midterms and through the prism of twenty eight,

0:58:49.400 --> 0:58:53.320
<v Speaker 1>meaning yep, look, we're not going, We're not going. Twenty

0:58:53.400 --> 0:58:56.040
<v Speaker 1>six is going to offer us clues about how twenty

0:58:56.120 --> 0:58:59.160
<v Speaker 1>eight may play out, right. Clue Number one was a

0:58:59.280 --> 0:59:01.960
<v Speaker 1>topic we've already discussed. The Democrats want a fighter? Are

0:59:02.000 --> 0:59:06.960
<v Speaker 1>they looking for, in the words of my acquaintance, no

0:59:07.080 --> 0:59:07.840
<v Speaker 1>more bomb throwers?

0:59:08.480 --> 0:59:08.640
<v Speaker 2>Right?

0:59:08.800 --> 0:59:11.800
<v Speaker 1>You know, what's the what's the what's the attitude in Texas?

0:59:11.880 --> 0:59:14.760
<v Speaker 1>The clearly the attitude is please no bomb throwers. Give

0:59:14.840 --> 0:59:17.840
<v Speaker 1>us somebody that can win. Let's see if that translates

0:59:17.960 --> 0:59:21.240
<v Speaker 1>throughout the primary season. Number two is sort of the

0:59:21.320 --> 0:59:23.440
<v Speaker 1>impact of Trump, Right, is Trump and that positive and

0:59:23.520 --> 0:59:26.360
<v Speaker 1>that negative? How badly do you still need them? Obviously

0:59:26.480 --> 0:59:29.320
<v Speaker 1>it's pretty clear Trump is still the most animating force.

0:59:29.640 --> 0:59:32.000
<v Speaker 1>This is not a party that is yet thinking about

0:59:32.200 --> 0:59:35.680
<v Speaker 1>the swing voter in the middle. And you know, is

0:59:35.720 --> 0:59:38.200
<v Speaker 1>the White House focused on this? No, they don't appear

0:59:38.240 --> 0:59:41.200
<v Speaker 1>to be. And you know that's a whole separate ball game. Right.

0:59:41.440 --> 0:59:44.760
<v Speaker 1>If Trump takes the blame for a double whamming loss

0:59:44.800 --> 0:59:48.000
<v Speaker 1>in the midterms, meaning House and Senate, how does that

0:59:48.120 --> 0:59:51.680
<v Speaker 1>impact twenty eight Right, that's we'll figure out. But the

0:59:51.760 --> 0:59:54.320
<v Speaker 1>third item here is the last item that we haven't

0:59:54.360 --> 0:59:59.080
<v Speaker 1>talked about. And we got a new candidate officially announced

0:59:59.080 --> 1:00:02.560
<v Speaker 1>in Montana. Yep, the former president of University of Montana,

1:00:02.560 --> 1:00:05.800
<v Speaker 1>who's running as an independent, announced by trashing both the

1:00:05.880 --> 1:00:07.960
<v Speaker 1>d's and the R saying both parties have let you down.

1:00:08.600 --> 1:00:11.720
<v Speaker 1>John Tester, the former Democratic senator, has already endorsed him.

1:00:11.800 --> 1:00:16.120
<v Speaker 1>There is a Democratic candidate and instead testers endorsing the independent.

1:00:18.880 --> 1:00:22.440
<v Speaker 1>I'm looking at all of these these independent testers out here,

1:00:22.480 --> 1:00:26.800
<v Speaker 1>whether it's Duggan and Michigan, Osborne and Nebraska Bodner. Now

1:00:26.880 --> 1:00:31.480
<v Speaker 1>in Montana, South Dakota's got Dakota, Kansas looks like they're

1:00:31.520 --> 1:00:32.160
<v Speaker 1>going to get one.

1:00:32.400 --> 1:00:32.600
<v Speaker 2>Yep.

1:00:33.320 --> 1:00:35.440
<v Speaker 1>Coming close is an interesting to me.

1:00:36.360 --> 1:00:39.520
<v Speaker 2>You know, that's why we like this. Someone wins and

1:00:39.560 --> 1:00:40.200
<v Speaker 2>someone loses.

1:00:40.400 --> 1:00:44.280
<v Speaker 1>That's right. If if an independent breaks through, if one

1:00:44.400 --> 1:00:48.640
<v Speaker 1>breaks through in any of those states, I think that's

1:00:48.680 --> 1:00:51.680
<v Speaker 1>a big deal. Small deal, medium deal.

1:00:51.960 --> 1:00:55.080
<v Speaker 2>I think big deal. I talked to Mike Dougan, former

1:00:55.120 --> 1:00:57.480
<v Speaker 2>Detroit mayor running for governories. You know, I think he's

1:00:57.600 --> 1:01:00.160
<v Speaker 2>in the mix. I don't think he's ahead, but I

1:01:00.240 --> 1:01:02.680
<v Speaker 2>think he's in the mix. And his point was a

1:01:02.760 --> 1:01:05.320
<v Speaker 2>point that you and I have talked about for decades,

1:01:05.360 --> 1:01:10.640
<v Speaker 2>which is people need proof of concept. People won't buy

1:01:10.800 --> 1:01:14.000
<v Speaker 2>that an independent can win a real statewide race and

1:01:14.120 --> 1:01:18.320
<v Speaker 2>really matter until an independent it's a real states like

1:01:18.480 --> 1:01:20.040
<v Speaker 2>we yes, we had when I was growing up, we

1:01:20.080 --> 1:01:23.360
<v Speaker 2>had Lol Wiker in Connecticut. Angus King was elected as

1:01:23.400 --> 1:01:26.040
<v Speaker 2>a governor as an independent, right. I mean, it happens,

1:01:26.120 --> 1:01:29.680
<v Speaker 2>but it usually happens in smaller states. And it's like

1:01:30.120 --> 1:01:34.440
<v Speaker 2>if Michigan elects an independent, a guy who's expressly running

1:01:34.920 --> 1:01:37.360
<v Speaker 2>like I was a Democrat, I'm you know, I think

1:01:37.440 --> 1:01:39.640
<v Speaker 2>both parties have failed us. I want to solve problems

1:01:39.680 --> 1:01:41.600
<v Speaker 2>it's a little bit an easy argument to make it

1:01:41.680 --> 1:01:45.360
<v Speaker 2>for governor than for Senate. But I think that's what

1:01:45.520 --> 1:01:48.240
<v Speaker 2>you need. I'm fascinated by that Michigan. You turned me

1:01:48.320 --> 1:01:51.240
<v Speaker 2>on too, that Michigan governor's race. And because what you

1:01:51.400 --> 1:01:55.040
<v Speaker 2>have is like two only o k likely nominees for

1:01:55.120 --> 1:01:58.760
<v Speaker 2>the two parties, like jo Justly Benson, the s fine

1:01:59.000 --> 1:02:02.320
<v Speaker 2>I think with the James, John James on the Republican side,

1:02:02.400 --> 1:02:07.720
<v Speaker 2>he's totally fine, competent, speaks. There's nothing there's not like

1:02:07.760 --> 1:02:09.840
<v Speaker 2>a Wimer in that field.

1:02:10.520 --> 1:02:12.880
<v Speaker 1>And it's a little unfair to Jocelyn Benson. You know.

1:02:12.960 --> 1:02:15.320
<v Speaker 1>It's like when you're the when you're the next woman

1:02:15.520 --> 1:02:18.400
<v Speaker 1>in line behind a popular woman governor.

1:02:18.160 --> 1:02:21.600
<v Speaker 2>That's true, or even Melissa slack Kid. My point is

1:02:21.640 --> 1:02:25.680
<v Speaker 2>there's not somebody who's like an obvious shining star that

1:02:25.880 --> 1:02:28.400
<v Speaker 2>could be it. I'm fascinated by that. And and look,

1:02:28.800 --> 1:02:32.640
<v Speaker 2>it's both a condemnation of the Democratic brand in the

1:02:32.720 --> 1:02:36.080
<v Speaker 2>Plaine States and also a really interesting experiment in the

1:02:36.120 --> 1:02:41.480
<v Speaker 2>Plain States because all these people are aligned loosely. But

1:02:41.640 --> 1:02:43.840
<v Speaker 2>but if I had to choose in South Dakota, Montana,

1:02:44.800 --> 1:02:49.160
<v Speaker 2>the Kansas guy in South and and Nebraska, all of

1:02:49.200 --> 1:02:52.880
<v Speaker 2>those guys running his independence, they're more on the Democratic

1:02:53.000 --> 1:02:54.800
<v Speaker 2>side than the Republican side, but they have none of

1:02:54.840 --> 1:02:56.880
<v Speaker 2>them identify as a Democrat because they can't win.

1:02:57.280 --> 1:02:58.600
<v Speaker 1>None of them would win with a D next to

1:02:58.640 --> 1:02:58.960
<v Speaker 1>their name.

1:02:58.960 --> 1:03:00.440
<v Speaker 2>Don't even have a chance. And that I think they

1:03:00.520 --> 1:03:03.920
<v Speaker 2>will admit that, and that's that's a brand problem for

1:03:03.960 --> 1:03:05.040
<v Speaker 2>the party. But it's interesting.

1:03:05.120 --> 1:03:09.280
<v Speaker 1>It's like what I help right, What to me? What

1:03:09.440 --> 1:03:14.000
<v Speaker 1>makes Duggan's candidacy different is he's running as an independent

1:03:14.080 --> 1:03:17.440
<v Speaker 1>win Arguably he could have had a better shot at

1:03:17.520 --> 1:03:21.200
<v Speaker 1>winning a primary because he was mayor of Detroit. He

1:03:21.200 --> 1:03:23.280
<v Speaker 1>would have been the Democratic nominee, probably would have been

1:03:23.280 --> 1:03:26.600
<v Speaker 1>the Democratic nominee, and but it was harder and he

1:03:26.600 --> 1:03:28.400
<v Speaker 1>would have to run a bit more partisan, and he

1:03:28.600 --> 1:03:31.480
<v Speaker 1>chose that he thought he could govern better as an independent,

1:03:31.600 --> 1:03:34.760
<v Speaker 1>which is from that is at is something you don't.

1:03:34.920 --> 1:03:39.040
<v Speaker 1>You rarely see someone make a choice that is harder politically.

1:03:39.040 --> 1:03:41.720
<v Speaker 1>It would have been easier to become governor by running

1:03:41.720 --> 1:03:44.520
<v Speaker 1>in a Democratic primary, and he chose not to. Look,

1:03:44.600 --> 1:03:47.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm one of those I split the difference. I think

1:03:47.080 --> 1:03:48.880
<v Speaker 1>it's a big deal if Dougan wins. I think it's

1:03:48.920 --> 1:03:51.120
<v Speaker 1>a medium deal. If any of the Senate independents wins

1:03:51.520 --> 1:03:54.200
<v Speaker 1>and less more than one wins. Sure, right, if both

1:03:54.280 --> 1:03:58.919
<v Speaker 1>Osborne and say Bodner the Montana Nebraska both go, I, oh, well,

1:03:59.160 --> 1:04:02.160
<v Speaker 1>then that's a big story. Then that's a big story.

1:04:02.680 --> 1:04:05.600
<v Speaker 1>And then that's a that's an entirely different conversation. And

1:04:05.680 --> 1:04:08.840
<v Speaker 1>I think what that will do. And I think a

1:04:08.880 --> 1:04:10.840
<v Speaker 1>dug in victory all of them do this more than

1:04:10.880 --> 1:04:14.080
<v Speaker 1>one eye winning, I think almost guarantees we're going to

1:04:14.120 --> 1:04:14.920
<v Speaker 1>have a three way president.

1:04:15.320 --> 1:04:17.560
<v Speaker 2>I was literally just gonna say, you will see the

1:04:17.720 --> 1:04:20.680
<v Speaker 2>independent third party candidates lining up thrife for president.

1:04:20.880 --> 1:04:23.720
<v Speaker 1>But that's but twenty six is the testing ground told

1:04:23.760 --> 1:04:24.920
<v Speaker 1>you've got to be able to break through.

1:04:24.960 --> 1:04:27.560
<v Speaker 2>If you can't love that storyline, I'm fascinated by it.

1:04:27.720 --> 1:04:29.680
<v Speaker 1>You can't, but I but I'm going to be as

1:04:29.760 --> 1:04:31.800
<v Speaker 1>much as I'm a I'm an advocate of this moment

1:04:31.960 --> 1:04:36.720
<v Speaker 1>for for for independence. If you can't win now, I

1:04:36.760 --> 1:04:38.960
<v Speaker 1>don't think the water is going to ever be any better. Well,

1:04:39.360 --> 1:04:42.760
<v Speaker 1>and so if it does party identification, it doesn't work now,

1:04:43.000 --> 1:04:45.880
<v Speaker 1>it's not going to work galas party identification.

1:04:45.960 --> 1:04:48.920
<v Speaker 2>I think Democrats and Republican party ID is at twenty

1:04:49.080 --> 1:04:53.640
<v Speaker 2>seven percent lower and Independence at forty five. I mean,

1:04:53.680 --> 1:04:56.000
<v Speaker 2>so it say to your point, like, if you can't

1:04:56.040 --> 1:04:59.360
<v Speaker 2>win with people hating the two political parties, I don't

1:04:59.360 --> 1:04:59.880
<v Speaker 2>know when you do it.

1:05:00.400 --> 1:05:02.000
<v Speaker 1>All right, let me really get you out of hearing this.

1:05:02.440 --> 1:05:04.680
<v Speaker 1>Do you read Carl Hyson? Were you ever a big

1:05:04.720 --> 1:05:08.120
<v Speaker 1>fan of his? He's a Florida man, right, yeah, yeah.

1:05:08.600 --> 1:05:11.840
<v Speaker 2>Arguably he did one of his books. He's like a

1:05:12.400 --> 1:05:16.000
<v Speaker 2>funny writer. I remember, yes, I need to read more

1:05:16.040 --> 1:05:17.959
<v Speaker 2>because I remember I liked the one I read.

1:05:18.400 --> 1:05:23.000
<v Speaker 1>My frustration with with with Carl is that they haven't

1:05:23.040 --> 1:05:25.600
<v Speaker 1>made more of his books out of movie strip. Tea's

1:05:25.760 --> 1:05:28.520
<v Speaker 1>was the first big movie he got, the Burt Reynolds

1:05:28.560 --> 1:05:31.200
<v Speaker 1>and It's not the sugar industry and it's the book

1:05:31.280 --> 1:05:34.240
<v Speaker 1>is fantastic. The movie wasn't bad. Burt Reynolds plays a

1:05:34.280 --> 1:05:39.400
<v Speaker 1>great sleevesball congressman. Yeah, I mean he really, it's it's

1:05:39.680 --> 1:05:43.920
<v Speaker 1>it was the role our Ferguson he was, he was.

1:05:44.280 --> 1:05:45.960
<v Speaker 1>It was you know what if you told me it

1:05:46.000 --> 1:05:47.840
<v Speaker 1>was actually Norm MacDonald playing Burt Reynolds.

1:05:48.320 --> 1:05:50.040
<v Speaker 2>That's like one of my favorite impersonations.

1:05:50.720 --> 1:05:53.480
<v Speaker 1>It's fantastic because it's not right. That's what's so great

1:05:53.480 --> 1:05:55.840
<v Speaker 1>about it? It's just not an impersonation. No, but I'm

1:05:55.960 --> 1:05:59.680
<v Speaker 1>very excited. There's a new Carl Hyson book being turned

1:05:59.680 --> 1:06:04.920
<v Speaker 1>into to a TV show, and uh, I'm just very

1:06:04.920 --> 1:06:06.880
<v Speaker 1>excited about it. I think Amazon Prime is going to

1:06:06.920 --> 1:06:07.080
<v Speaker 1>have it.

1:06:07.440 --> 1:06:09.520
<v Speaker 2>What is what book is? R J?

1:06:09.800 --> 1:06:12.920
<v Speaker 1>Decker is what the new show? It's on ABC. It's

1:06:13.040 --> 1:06:18.880
<v Speaker 1>from his book Double Whamming on broadcast broadcast. That's sorry,

1:06:18.920 --> 1:06:20.120
<v Speaker 1>I thought it was trying not to.

1:06:20.120 --> 1:06:22.240
<v Speaker 2>Watch a lot of broadcast TV, Chuck. It doesn't fit

1:06:22.360 --> 1:06:24.400
<v Speaker 2>with my hipster personality, I know.

1:06:24.760 --> 1:06:27.240
<v Speaker 1>But you know, both ABC and CBS are desperate and

1:06:27.360 --> 1:06:29.720
<v Speaker 1>NBC are desperate to be cool again, so they're green

1:06:29.800 --> 1:06:33.600
<v Speaker 1>lighting grittier television. I like it, you know, but I'm

1:06:33.680 --> 1:06:37.880
<v Speaker 1>just very happy. I think more. Look, my favorite Carl

1:06:37.960 --> 1:06:42.240
<v Speaker 1>Hyson book is called Tour Season. Kay, it is it is?

1:06:42.720 --> 1:06:46.280
<v Speaker 1>What is it? It's it's a former Miami Dolphin, a

1:06:46.360 --> 1:06:53.920
<v Speaker 1>former reporter, a Mikasuki Indian, and a Cuban exile I

1:06:54.600 --> 1:06:56.960
<v Speaker 1>who are sort of this group of guys who are

1:06:57.040 --> 1:07:00.640
<v Speaker 1>just going to rid Florida of its asshole tourists.

1:07:01.040 --> 1:07:03.480
<v Speaker 2>And it's just a it's just I love the concept.

1:07:03.520 --> 1:07:05.280
<v Speaker 2>I'm already in on the concept.

1:07:05.120 --> 1:07:07.760
<v Speaker 1>They never kill anybody. They just let the tourists and

1:07:07.840 --> 1:07:09.360
<v Speaker 1>the alligators fight it out.

1:07:09.760 --> 1:07:12.360
<v Speaker 2>Darwin situations. Yeah it is.

1:07:12.800 --> 1:07:16.920
<v Speaker 1>But Carl was a political columnist forever in the Miami

1:07:16.960 --> 1:07:20.600
<v Speaker 1>Heralds and basically when you chronicle all the crazy Florida

1:07:20.680 --> 1:07:23.240
<v Speaker 1>man stories that go back, he and Dave Barry, by

1:07:23.240 --> 1:07:25.160
<v Speaker 1>the way, how great you know, back in the day

1:07:25.200 --> 1:07:29.280
<v Speaker 1>in the Miami Herald. Dave Barry and carlas I grew

1:07:29.400 --> 1:07:31.040
<v Speaker 1>up with. And it's like, this is why I got

1:07:31.080 --> 1:07:34.960
<v Speaker 1>into journalism and newspaper guys, because you had great columnists

1:07:35.000 --> 1:07:38.160
<v Speaker 1>in my local paper, you know, that were just hilarious.

1:07:38.240 --> 1:07:40.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, my parents would always go, did you read

1:07:40.160 --> 1:07:43.400
<v Speaker 1>what Dave Barry said? Did you read what Carl heist writing.

1:07:43.120 --> 1:07:46.120
<v Speaker 2>A sports section with Tony Kornheiser, Mike Wilbon and Shirley

1:07:46.160 --> 1:07:49.280
<v Speaker 2>Povitch you get of it? Wait, no one would do

1:07:49.400 --> 1:07:51.120
<v Speaker 2>that that, you would be idiotic.

1:07:51.480 --> 1:07:54.160
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. No, at least the Miami Herald still actually wants

1:07:54.200 --> 1:07:56.240
<v Speaker 1>to publish a Hyatin column every now and then, and

1:07:56.320 --> 1:07:59.360
<v Speaker 1>at Dave Barry, by the way, Dave Barry is a substack.

1:07:59.680 --> 1:08:01.600
<v Speaker 2>I know, and it's funny as hell.

1:08:01.920 --> 1:08:05.600
<v Speaker 1>It's really funny. I know he's not everybody's cup of tea,

1:08:05.800 --> 1:08:06.440
<v Speaker 1>but it's funny.

1:08:06.680 --> 1:08:08.560
<v Speaker 2>My wife yells at me because she's like, we just

1:08:08.640 --> 1:08:11.640
<v Speaker 2>got another charge on your Kindle. How many books can

1:08:11.680 --> 1:08:13.200
<v Speaker 2>you possibly read? And I was like, if that's my

1:08:13.360 --> 1:08:15.760
<v Speaker 2>worst vice, so I'm going to go buy to our season.

1:08:15.800 --> 1:08:17.840
<v Speaker 2>So if my wife yells at you, it's because I

1:08:17.920 --> 1:08:18.600
<v Speaker 2>blamed you for it.

1:08:18.720 --> 1:08:22.920
<v Speaker 1>It's It's fantastic and I believe. I do believe he's

1:08:23.920 --> 1:08:26.800
<v Speaker 1>one of his fictional characters is who he thinks Lawton

1:08:26.880 --> 1:08:30.280
<v Speaker 1>Child's would be if he w Yeah, he's got a

1:08:30.280 --> 1:08:31.040
<v Speaker 1>great lot of Child