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Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. Well, I normally am on the
Speaker 1: receiving end of this, but he's Chris, and this is
Speaker 1: Crystaliz's a guest appearance on the Check podcast. And those
Speaker 1: of you that may not know this, and maybe some
Speaker 1: of you don't know, I appear weekly on your Behind
Speaker 1: the Paywall podcast. You're an elite you're an elite network influencer. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a Britique offering. You have a velvet rope behind
Speaker 1: our conversations. You know, I'm a man of the people,
Speaker 1: as you know, and say no, you we're getting rid
Speaker 1: of the velvet rope just for this.
Speaker 2: When I heard when I got the email that I
Speaker 2: was being asked to be on the Chuck podcast, I
Speaker 2: immediately told my wife. I've made it.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: Well, I thought Chuck was blackballing me off of the
Speaker 2: Chuck Podcast. Apparently not. He must be hard off for guests.
Speaker 2: Somebody canceled.
Speaker 1: No, I bucked ken Burns for you. But how about that,
Speaker 1: you know America's two hundred and fiftieth birthday in the
Speaker 1: American Revolution. We can wait a few days on that.
Speaker 2: Can I trade bank accounts?
Speaker 1: Now? Well that's there, you got I teeth. Look we
Speaker 1: were we did a live stream on Tuesday night. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you know, in many cases, you know, you have
Speaker 1: the immediate moments when you deal, and then you know,
Speaker 1: you get a day, you get a night, you get
Speaker 1: to sort of see this. And you know, since we
Speaker 1: last saw you as a pair, Jasmine Crockett is conceited
Speaker 1: quite quickly. And I think there was some question about
Speaker 1: whether Taller I think Taller Rico's management of that was
Speaker 1: quite deft when he said, hey, we're not calling, We're
Speaker 1: not claiming victory until all the votes are counted in Dallas,
Speaker 1: which has made it harder for Crockett to have a
Speaker 1: grievance when her own opponent was willing to have her
Speaker 1: back there. And now it's you know, and now all
Speaker 1: the all the eyes are on the Republican side. By
Speaker 1: the way, we still don't have all the votes in No,
Speaker 1: we still don't.
Speaker 2: Have Look, it's like ninety five percent, and I do
Speaker 2: think Cornan will finish a heag marginally. I mean, it's
Speaker 2: it's basically going to effectively be a wash. It's eight
Speaker 2: ninety seven point eighty four to eight seventy one, six seventy.
Speaker 2: So Cornyan has had by twenty six thousand votes with
Speaker 2: ninety more than ninety five percent.
Speaker 1: In Here is the stat that moved me the most
Speaker 1: that I saw today, and that is in counties that
Speaker 1: Donald Trump one by fifty points or more. In the
Speaker 1: deep red Texas County, Okay, all right, Paxton consistently led
Speaker 1: corn In by four to five points for four to
Speaker 1: forty when you put all those together. So I look
Speaker 1: at that and you're just, you know, Cornyn, the question
Speaker 1: is can Cornn get to fifty? Right?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 1: You know this is you start to look and I
Speaker 1: it's you know, it's fascinating. I'm gonna share an anecdote
Speaker 1: with you. I was running some errands on Wednesday morning,
Speaker 1: and you know, you know, you live in your neighborhood.
Speaker 1: You have the same people you run into and you know,
Speaker 1: and these are people that are not political people, but
Speaker 1: they know what I do for a living. And you know,
Speaker 1: I was ran into one of these acquaintances and I said, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm tired. I was covering the Texas primaries. You know,
Speaker 1: I'm just sort of groggy, sorry, or something like that.
Speaker 1: And this person said, oh, those were last night. He goes,
Speaker 1: so what happened? And you know, meaning but you know,
Speaker 1: you know, and I said, and he said, who won
Speaker 1: that Democratic? And I said, the young pastor did Tella Rico?
Speaker 1: He goes, oh, I'm relieved. He goes, you know, I
Speaker 1: just exhausted from the bomb throwers. And it was just,
Speaker 1: you know, we've been having this debate, Chris, right, which
Speaker 1: is where is the Democratic primary electorate? Is it in
Speaker 1: fight mode or is it in exhaustion mode? And in
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen it felt exhaustion right, they were in twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen and twenty twenty it was less fight back
Speaker 1: and more like this is crazy, let's have a reset,
Speaker 1: and they're all The messaging was sort of around that.
Speaker 1: All the candidates sort of leaned into that whether you're
Speaker 1: Alyssa Slotkin. And yet this first year of Trump's second term,
Speaker 1: we've seen the fighters, whether it's Gavin Newsom in the
Speaker 1: presidential stakes, or frankly, it was Jasmine Crockett who jumped
Speaker 1: out sort of tortoise and hair type of mindset. Right.
Speaker 1: She jumped out early and was doing better than I
Speaker 1: think a lot of us expected, and we thought, oh boy,
Speaker 1: this this fighter mentality maybe getting you know, Democrats, maybe
Speaker 1: they want to punch her. They don't necessarily want a preacher,
Speaker 1: and yet they do. You know, you look at the twenty,
Speaker 1: then you look at the Virginia New Jersey races. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and you look at the the style of Mom Donnie Okay,
Speaker 1: which is moderate in tone even if it's progressive, totalte
Speaker 1: and you're asked and you're like, maybe Gavin Newsom has
Speaker 1: this wrong, maybe he's making a mistake.
Speaker 2: It's so funny that you said that, because one of
Speaker 2: the things I really like, it's always hard. I'll first say,
Speaker 2: it's always hard when we're live and we're trying to
Speaker 2: analyze in real time. You're not totally sure where the
Speaker 2: votes are coming from, and you obviously don't have a
Speaker 2: minute to kind of step back and just be like,
Speaker 2: I'm going to go through each race. I'm gonna look
Speaker 2: at each race and be like, oh, that's interesting, that's
Speaker 2: not It's hard to have like deeper thoughts. That's why
Speaker 2: I like a couple days after you can sort through.
Speaker 2: I was on Wednesday morning. I was just looking at
Speaker 2: the results and I was thinking about the conversations you
Speaker 2: and I have had in the run up to this
Speaker 2: Tallar Eico Crockett, which is that a lot of the
Speaker 2: national media has painted this as liberal husband Crockett against
Speaker 2: moderate James Telrico, which is totally wrong. And I'll point
Speaker 2: you to it. There's a great stat out there. There's
Speaker 2: a great map online that shows that in the counties
Speaker 2: that Bernie Sanders won in the Texas primary, tell Rico
Speaker 2: won by forty points. I mean, the reason that he
Speaker 2: won is because of the left. Crockett was never a
Speaker 2: that was never a governing dynamic. But the other thing
Speaker 2: I was thinking about, to your point, is like the
Speaker 2: fighter versus uniter or the you know, the the over
Speaker 2: partisan versus the kind of I don't want to call
Speaker 2: Tallary called bipartisan, but a lot less partisan energy. And
Speaker 2: I was thinking, you know, what like, it's one data point.
Speaker 2: But if I'm Pete boodage age or like a Shapiro.
Speaker 1: I feel like a bit Andy Bisheer.
Speaker 2: I felt a little bit better after on the day
Speaker 2: after than I did the day before. And again it's
Speaker 2: one data point. Like if Graham Plattner in Maine goes
Speaker 2: and beach Janet Mills by thirty points, Okay, we're never
Speaker 2: having a different conversation, right, you know, so I would.
Speaker 1: Also, I don't want to discount the following phenomenon, which
Speaker 1: is there's you know, when you've been beaten to a
Speaker 1: pulp like Texas Democrats have been for the last twenty years,
Speaker 1: you're you're like anything, you know, there's there's a I'm
Speaker 1: going to quote an old Eddie Murphy stand up line.
Speaker 1: It is like when you're a starving person, any cracker
Speaker 1: tastes like our ritz, you know, and he's like, oh man,
Speaker 1: this is a great cracker. When you're starving, anything tastes
Speaker 1: like our writs. Right, And it is so that there
Speaker 1: is you know, this is why you know, one primary
Speaker 1: does not make a trend, and you have to wait
Speaker 1: and we have to watch and look Illinois in two
Speaker 1: weeks presents. You know, there's all sorts of flavors of
Speaker 1: Democrats you can pick from in that Democratic primary in
Speaker 1: Illinois that frankly I think has been hijacked by big
Speaker 1: money in a way that gosh to two extraordinary methods.
Speaker 1: But let's put a pin in that buying the office, no,
Speaker 1: no doubt. But when you what you have so I
Speaker 1: you know, is this say Texas Democrats are exhausted and
Speaker 1: they're looking for a winner, you know? Or is this
Speaker 1: you know? So that's that'd be the only caution I
Speaker 1: want to put in here. But I have to say.
Speaker 1: Nate Silver wrote a really interesting piece this morning on
Speaker 1: Wednesday about Kid tell Rico win correct and it was
Speaker 1: I I was talking about this issue of partisan versus moderate,
Speaker 1: which is that we and he correctly said a lot
Speaker 1: of sort of inexperienced I call him in a you know,
Speaker 1: the problem with big mainstream media these days, or whatever's
Speaker 1: left of it, is that there's a lot of important
Speaker 1: legacy titles with a lot of inexperienced political reporters, you
Speaker 1: know who think politics started you know, after you know,
Speaker 1: when Donald Trump came down the escalator and don't really
Speaker 1: have a lot of experience beyond sort of the last
Speaker 1: eight to ten years of American politics. And and so
Speaker 1: you know the difference between partisan. You can be moderate
Speaker 1: and temperament and still very ideologically either Conserva or modern.
Speaker 1: So I'll give you you know.
Speaker 2: And that's mom. Donnie, I think is such a good
Speaker 2: example of that. People. How could he go and get
Speaker 2: along with Trump because he's temperamentially moderate even though on
Speaker 2: a policy perspective he's very very liberal.
Speaker 1: So you know, one of the most conservative senators that
Speaker 1: Florida's ever had, and arguably more conservative than the two
Speaker 1: senators that they have at the moment, was a guy
Speaker 1: named Connie Mack. Totally honey, Connie Mack. I used to
Speaker 1: call him the conservative with a smile because when he
Speaker 1: ran as a conservative, and he ran when he won
Speaker 1: an eighty eight uh, he won, I think despite his ideology.
Speaker 1: But it was because he was just simply a nice guy.
Speaker 1: That's really was Connie Mack your pal? And he was
Speaker 1: just sort of and he always was. He was he's
Speaker 1: always it goes. Reagan is the great, you know example,
Speaker 1: and he was Reagan, which was, hey, look, if you're
Speaker 1: going to sell austerity, you ought to be don't better
Speaker 1: be with a smile, don't be a dick.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. You know, it's a simple lesson, But it's
Speaker 2: actually because I was thinking about that with Chip.
Speaker 1: Roymembertism with George W.
Speaker 2: Bush, and I know, like Chip Roy is kind of unlikable,
Speaker 2: do you know what I mean? And he got pummeled
Speaker 2: in the Attorney General's race, like it does matter. We
Speaker 2: talk about we always talk about Tim Burchett. Tim Burchett
Speaker 2: is like among the most conservative members of Congress, but
Speaker 2: like Algender, const Cortez loves him because he's like a
Speaker 2: he's like a It's exactly what you said. He's not
Speaker 2: overly partisan, even though he's very conservative.
Speaker 1: Another example on the right Mike Pence. Mike Pence, you know,
Speaker 1: lived in the same neighborhood I'd lived in for a while.
Speaker 1: Everybody loved him. I don't know if anybody would have
Speaker 1: ever voted for him, Okay, in the neighborhood. He was
Speaker 1: very you know, and yet he was the guy that
Speaker 1: you know, would bring in your garbage cans if you
Speaker 1: were if you didn't have a chance to do it
Speaker 1: because you were late coming.
Speaker 2: And I think people don't understand that. I think that's
Speaker 2: such an important intall.
Speaker 1: Errico may have this, and it may matter more to
Speaker 1: Texans than perhaps it does folks in Illinois, or perhaps
Speaker 1: it does. I mean, and so I I but but
Speaker 1: there is something about temperament here that I think we're
Speaker 1: we're you know, we're we're all trying to figure this
Speaker 1: out in this second Trump term, which is our Democrats.
Speaker 1: And the thing is, if you're online, if you're a
Speaker 1: Pod Save America Democrat, you're you're on edge.
Speaker 2: You're midas touch Democrat. You hate him and everything he does.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know, if you're sort of not, if
Speaker 1: you're trying to tune it out and you're you're you're
Speaker 1: more looking, you know, but you're still you know, hopefully
Speaker 1: you're subscribing to YOU or I because you're like.
Speaker 2: Let's you're making some attention, Yeah.
Speaker 1: But you don't really want to be lectured all the
Speaker 1: time in the screen and made to feel like the
Speaker 1: sky is falling every second of the day. You're you're
Speaker 1: looking for change, but you're looking for a change in
Speaker 1: tone as much as a change in in in ideology.
Speaker 1: And look again, this maybe it's one state. It's one
Speaker 1: very big state. Yep, it's it's gigantic and.
Speaker 2: A ton of profile and a ton of attention. I
Speaker 2: I like the the main race is probably the clearest
Speaker 2: example of that. The choice, I also think it's a
Speaker 2: three way race is a little more complicated. But in
Speaker 2: the Michigan Senate primary, you kind of have Hailey Stevens,
Speaker 2: the member of Congress, who's very much like I'm not
Speaker 2: going to talk about how terrible Trump is. You have
Speaker 2: Abdul l si Ed, who's like Justice Democrat Bernie Sanders.
Speaker 2: And then I think McMorrow probably winds up being the Mallard.
Speaker 2: McMorrow winds up being on me, who's kind of a hybrid.
Speaker 1: She's Goldilocks. Yeah, exactly right.
Speaker 2: But I don't know, But I mean, there will be
Speaker 2: more data points. And look again, if Graham Platner beats
Speaker 2: Janet Mills by fifteen points in the main primary, you
Speaker 2: know that, then the tall Eco thing looks like just
Speaker 2: a data point that's contradicted by that data point, right, Like,
Speaker 2: we don't know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, let's talk. Let's have a little fun here.
Speaker 1: I was. I did this sort of scenario with a
Speaker 1: couple of people earlier, earlier today, and this is the following.
Speaker 1: If the Democrats had been the dominant political party in
Speaker 1: Texas for the last thirty years, and the Republicans were
Speaker 1: the ones that have had a hard time winning general elections.
Speaker 1: Does the Republican electorate become more mindful of quote unquote electability?
Speaker 1: And and does the Democrat you know, and I say
Speaker 1: this in that the fact is we've actually seen this
Speaker 1: play out. Right, Why does a moderate Republican like Larry
Speaker 1: Hogan successfully navigate a primary in Maryland that yes, he
Speaker 1: had a conservative.
Speaker 2: Murphy Cracker thing, right, You're.
Speaker 1: Like, well, maybe this guy can win, right, And you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's one of those that that Crockett probably wins.
Speaker 1: If Democrats had gotten comfortable winning.
Speaker 2: One hundred percent. I think it's it's so much of
Speaker 2: it is expectations, right, if you've won and you control
Speaker 2: I mean, look, we're talking about this. You know Gary Morrow, right,
Speaker 2: is the last Democrat to win statewide in two thousand
Speaker 2: and four.
Speaker 1: No, nineteen eighty four, nineteen ye. I mean, that's a
Speaker 1: long ass time you were in college or high school.
Speaker 1: I was.
Speaker 2: I was graduating from past that was my high school
Speaker 2: graduation and I turned fifty a few days ago, So
Speaker 2: that tells you how long it was like I do
Speaker 2: think there is a a an element of like, look,
Speaker 2: we don't have the luxury of picking the perfect. We
Speaker 2: have to vote with our head more than our heart.
Speaker 2: And I think that always is the case in places
Speaker 2: where you've been down one party has been down for
Speaker 2: an extended period of time, you are more willing to
Speaker 2: be like, it's not my cup of tea. But like,
Speaker 2: I've spent the last twenty five years under Democratic rule.
Speaker 2: So maybe Charlie Baker as the governor of Massachusetts or whatever,
Speaker 2: you know, like he's probably too moderate for me, but like,
Speaker 2: you know, and I.
Speaker 1: Think that that better than those liberals over there, right.
Speaker 2: Because you know what it's like to live under if
Speaker 2: you're a Democrat in Texas, you've spent probably most of
Speaker 2: your adult life under almost fied Republican rule. So you
Speaker 2: now know, like, I'm not letting the perfect get in
Speaker 2: the way of the good here, right, And I do
Speaker 2: think I think that's human nature to do that.
Speaker 1: I don't want to let Texas go without picking a
Speaker 1: few knits because you know, one of it was interesting
Speaker 1: last night, we had some we had you know, all
Speaker 1: of the as Missus Todd likes to say, she goes
Speaker 1: I love the numbers guys that you guys have on
Speaker 1: the livest Nerds. Yeah, you know, because I say that,
Speaker 1: I say that lovingly. But if I had one, you know,
Speaker 1: there was this well, hey, it just broke down the
Speaker 1: exact same way that Royce West and m J. Hagar
Speaker 1: broke down. And you're like, Okay, that's true, except you
Speaker 1: know what both Crockett and what Crockett had that that
Speaker 1: Royce West didn't have was money and attention and a.
Speaker 2: Way bigger profile. Nobody except people like us even knew
Speaker 2: who Royce West was.
Speaker 1: So what I would the knits I'd pick here is that.
Speaker 1: So I think I'm going to separate Jasmine Crockett political
Speaker 1: athlete right when you have like, you know, you take
Speaker 1: the A good example of my be a let's take
Speaker 1: my son's favorite NBA team, the Phoenix Suns. He's very
Speaker 1: frustrated they have one of the best players in the
Speaker 1: NBA that that doesn't get enough enough attention. And yet
Speaker 1: is it Booker's fault that he has a terrible infrastructure
Speaker 1: around him, that he's got a you know, a campaign manner,
Speaker 1: I mean, an owner that's you know, way to this
Speaker 1: right that the big all the The point is is
Speaker 1: that so here she was a really good political athlete
Speaker 1: who had a terrible infrastructure round because I at the
Speaker 1: end of the day, she.
Speaker 2: Did not run a good campaign.
Speaker 1: She did not she did not have a statewide organization.
Speaker 1: She was sort of she You know. The problem is
Speaker 1: it strikes me as she was the candidate and the manager,
Speaker 1: and you have to have versus Talla. Rico clearly had
Speaker 1: an organization.
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, he is real people, Liz Smith who's
Speaker 2: had successful well that's not just.
Speaker 1: That, but the people. But they clearly had a ground operation.
Speaker 1: Clearly we're thinking about real Grand Valley, right, and that's
Speaker 1: that's how he won. This episode of the Chuck Toddcast
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Speaker 1: Slash the Chuck Toodcast use that code. This episode of
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Speaker 1: Chuck podcast at checkout for the fifteen percent discount. Again,
Speaker 1: use the code Chuck podcast, and that should scare the
Speaker 1: Bejesus out of it for publics. Right, if if Talla Rico
Speaker 1: can essentially recreate what Veto did in the Rio Grand Valley,
Speaker 1: because people forget this. Beto cleaned up in the Rio
Speaker 1: Grand Valley against Cruz. His problem, frankly, I think was
Speaker 1: he didn't do as well. And this was a critic
Speaker 1: of him. He was almost so obsessed with the Rio
Speaker 1: Grand Valley that he sort of didn't run up the
Speaker 1: score in the urban areas that arguably he should have
Speaker 1: run it right. And and you know this was you know,
Speaker 1: this is the the if you were going to make
Speaker 1: the case for Crockett on the ticket, it would have been, well,
Speaker 1: she's not gonna you know, the urban areas are going
Speaker 1: to turn out in greater numbers, you know, so then
Speaker 1: you just send her to to the Rio Grand Valley
Speaker 1: and see if she can, you know, fight to a
Speaker 1: draw among Latino voters. So it is it is clear
Speaker 1: that she didn't run a statewide campaign. No, and and
Speaker 1: so you know, look, I think that here's what I've
Speaker 1: I feel like her decision to concede quickly, she conceded
Speaker 1: quicker than I fully expected, tells me she wants a
Speaker 1: future in the party. I was just going up and
Speaker 1: that says a lot. Look cruises up soon. And who's
Speaker 1: to say, you know, we've seen plenty of places where
Speaker 1: the second time you run, you maybe she'll figure out
Speaker 1: that she needs to not always run hot, right.
Speaker 2: She's especially a state that big, Yeah.
Speaker 1: It's always in fifth gear. She won't she won't necessarily
Speaker 1: have to do that the next time. You know, does
Speaker 1: she have does she have an ability to pivot? And
Speaker 1: all this stuff? And what kind of campaign? What kind
Speaker 1: of candidate is she? If she has an actual campaign infrastructure?
Speaker 1: Right now, Look, here's stuff I don't know. I don't
Speaker 1: know whether she's easy to that she will listen to
Speaker 1: an infrastructure. Right, we don't know those things. I don't
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not going to sit here and say
Speaker 1: I know her very well, but I don't think she's erratic,
Speaker 1: and I don't think she makes the same mistake twice.
Speaker 2: I thought it was very First of all, one thing
Speaker 2: that I just looked up, she's only forty four years old, Okay,
Speaker 2: so put that, I think it is unlikely this is
Speaker 2: the last you've ever heard from herlitically. Second, I when
Speaker 2: I got up Wednesday morning and I saw that she
Speaker 2: had conceded and endorsed tall Rico and then put on Twitter,
Speaker 2: you know we're all unified, I thought, well, she's probably
Speaker 2: gonna run for something like that. Is that is like
Speaker 2: the Democrat First of all, it's the Democratic dream scenario, right,
Speaker 2: Like they need like eight things to go right, Chuck,
Speaker 2: to even put yourself in a position where they might win.
Speaker 2: And one of those things was you could not have
Speaker 2: any look of particularly with Crockett being an African American woman,
Speaker 2: you could not have there be a vibe of, oh,
Speaker 2: I don't really love the kind of campaign tallar Rico ran.
Speaker 2: And maybe a'll endorsement eventually, but it'll be right like
Speaker 2: she gave an unequivalental endorsement. I agree. I will say
Speaker 2: I think she started too late, right, I mean, she
Speaker 2: got into late for the size of the primary tall.
Speaker 2: Rico had been in for a really long time, and
Speaker 2: I don't if you look at the numbers. She did
Speaker 2: well where she was known. She did well on the
Speaker 2: Dallas media market. She did pretty well in Harris County
Speaker 2: in Houston. But man, like the entire if you split
Speaker 2: the state vertically, she just gets destroyed right in everything
Speaker 2: in the western part of the state.
Speaker 1: It just struck. It looks like a campaign that was
Speaker 1: not complete, right, a campaign infrastructure that was just incomplete.
Speaker 1: She was the classic building it as the plane is
Speaker 1: taking off and.
Speaker 2: A house member, right. A house members never run statewide
Speaker 2: and it's not like running statewide in my home state
Speaker 2: of Connecticut, where it's like you're if you're a member
Speaker 2: of Congress who represent the twenty percent of the of
Speaker 2: the state. You rep what are the thirty six members
Speaker 2: of Congress and tech I mean you reap. Nobody knows
Speaker 2: what the hell you aren't say California.
Speaker 1: One more little you know, how you sort of you
Speaker 1: see an event, you see something happen, and you're like, hmm,
Speaker 1: there's more to this story. So the Kamala Harris last
Speaker 1: minute in Dorset, Yes, all right, I promise you there's
Speaker 1: a TikTok to do on this, right, My guess is
Speaker 1: Rocket tried to get this weeks ago, of course, and
Speaker 1: I'm sure Crockett, who's part of the the Black Sorority,
Speaker 1: She's a member of one of the big black those
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris. This is one of those sisterhood things. Right,
Speaker 1: are you going to back? And so you know, this
Speaker 1: strikes me as a classic Kamala Harris risk, you know,
Speaker 1: waiting too long, being indecisive. Oh am I going to
Speaker 1: get involved? Am I not going to get involved? All right?
Speaker 1: If I well, boy, it looks bad if I don't
Speaker 1: back the black woman. But you know, and then when
Speaker 1: does she do it? When it's too late to help,
Speaker 1: so she gets all the worst parts of this, which did.
Speaker 2: It after early vote was over right? I mean it
Speaker 2: makes no sense.
Speaker 1: It really made It was really just strategically inact and
Speaker 1: it what it I'll tell you what my suspicion is
Speaker 1: is that this is hand ringing inside a Kris world.
Speaker 1: Should they get into these things, they not get into
Speaker 1: these things. And then when you when you wring your hands.
Speaker 1: And this was, by the way, this is the knock
Speaker 1: against her goes back to our original presidential campaign that's
Speaker 1: going to be for medicare for all? Is she not
Speaker 1: going to be for medicare? You know, liberal? And you know,
Speaker 1: you know it's some Sometimes you are who you are,
Speaker 1: and this is who she is, right, which is she's
Speaker 1: never been comfortable with the political identity that other people
Speaker 1: have of her, which means she is always second guess
Speaker 1: her own political identity. Is she the prosecutor? Is she
Speaker 1: the defendant? Is the social justice democrat? Is she the
Speaker 1: moderate pragmatist? Or is she the progressive disruptor? And you know,
Speaker 1: even in how she handled this endorsement totally, you know,
Speaker 1: to me, it was like, well, I don't you know,
Speaker 1: I don't you know, I don't understand what took so
Speaker 1: long other than it's clear it came from her side,
Speaker 1: because it just it made no sense. On the property side, is.
Speaker 2: Getting it makes no sense because it's exactly what you said, Like,
Speaker 2: let's just let's just first of all, you're exactly right.
Speaker 2: This is not in a vacuum. This is consistent with
Speaker 2: indecision and handwringing that has gone literally back to when
Speaker 2: she first ran for president. Now I would argue before that,
Speaker 2: but yeah, it's also like, let's just let's just look
Speaker 2: at it like as in a sterile political decision. If
Speaker 2: you're going to endorse, you do it so that you
Speaker 2: get the potential upside. If you endorse two weeks ago
Speaker 2: and Crockett wins, you say, oh, crocket one, I did
Speaker 2: that the classic Donald Trump, Why the hell would you
Speaker 2: endorse where you literally there's no win scenario. If Crockett wins,
Speaker 2: everyone like us is gonna be like she endorsed her
Speaker 2: two days before the election. If Cricket loses, people like
Speaker 2: us as we're doing it to see, what the hell
Speaker 2: are you doing? Why did you endorse solely?
Speaker 1: I mean maybe if Crockett had narrowly eked it out,
Speaker 1: perhaps Kamala would have been seen as sort of the
Speaker 1: the tipping point at the end. That's about the only
Speaker 1: trying to think.
Speaker 2: Sense to endorse that late in the game, because you're
Speaker 2: not going to get credit for it.
Speaker 1: Look, it's sort of uh, in the in the fantasy
Speaker 1: world where I have one hundred political reporters to assign
Speaker 1: stories to, I probably wouldn't assign the Hey, go figure
Speaker 1: out what took so long? In the Kamala Harris endorsement,
Speaker 1: a jizment Crockett. So this is one of those tiktoks
Speaker 1: that at some point I think, well, this is one
Speaker 1: of those we'll learn this story in like six months
Speaker 1: when somebody sort of as an aside, ask somebody about it,
Speaker 1: and we get the full story. But there's I have
Speaker 1: a feeling that when we find out why this took
Speaker 1: so long, that it will fit the pattern of the
Speaker 1: Harris world's indecisiveness about her own political idea, and I.
Speaker 2: Think it will land ultimately as most of these things have,
Speaker 2: with her back on her right, not just the team,
Speaker 2: but back on her that she was like, do I
Speaker 2: get involved? Do I not get involved? And there were
Speaker 2: some people saying get involved, there's some people saying not
Speaker 2: get involved, like in every campaign, and she just waited
Speaker 2: to it. Which is fascinating, by the way, because you
Speaker 2: know the other politician I always Democrat politician. I always
Speaker 2: think of who the knock on him was, always he's
Speaker 2: too indecisive, Joe Biden. I mean that is that was
Speaker 2: always the knock on Biden, like he can't make any decisions.
Speaker 2: It's why he didn't run for president.
Speaker 1: Does make time around? It goes back to look, there
Speaker 1: are plenty of politicians who don't like to make enemies
Speaker 1: and they don't want to make anybody mad. And I'm
Speaker 1: sure you know in that succeed look, and I want
Speaker 1: to pivot to something else. You know, there are certain
Speaker 1: candidates that also are are crowd pleasers in the moment
Speaker 1: and sometimes right this is the Donald Trump, both positive
Speaker 1: and negative. He tells every crowd what they want to
Speaker 1: hear yep, in the moment, regardless of whether it's a
Speaker 1: contradiction to something he told somebody else a mini later
Speaker 1: to y Yeah, well, I have a feeling. Our friend
Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom pulled one of those on Tuesday night when
Speaker 1: he did a book interview with the Pod Save America
Speaker 1: Guys where he knew the audience was going to be
Speaker 1: super lefty. He knew where the Pod Save America guys
Speaker 1: are and particularly in foreign policy and particularly when it
Speaker 1: comes to bb net Yahoo and he and he ended
Speaker 1: up give it, telling them what they wanted to hear,
Speaker 1: using using phrases He's going to come to regret, like
Speaker 1: accusing Israel of being an apartheid nation, and it is
Speaker 1: it is, you know, it is when you use the
Speaker 1: language that is being used to target Jews. Left and right,
Speaker 1: and you're you're sort of giving aid and comfort with
Speaker 1: that ar you know, but it was you know, this
Speaker 1: is this is always something I've always worried about with Gavin,
Speaker 1: is that he's always I mean, the irony is his
Speaker 1: book is still who he is. He's in a hurry.
Speaker 1: He's in a hurry to cement his status as the
Speaker 1: as the as the candidate for the angry Democratic base. Okay,
Speaker 1: but you know, I think that that has a low ceiling.
Speaker 1: And I you know, I don't think it's a I
Speaker 1: put it this way. I think he made a lot.
Speaker 1: He reminded a lot of people of why there's so
Speaker 1: much skepticism his ability to be a national candidate when
Speaker 1: he went to me, when he went when he went
Speaker 1: as it just felt like he was pandering to the crowd.
Speaker 1: It didn't feel like a genuine flip.
Speaker 2: Well, and you know we I think we did it.
Speaker 1: And I'll respect the flip. I'll respect the genuine flip.
Speaker 1: But here's what I would say, And I'm just look,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm are you is it a when you criticize
Speaker 1: the Trump administration? Is it America that does these things?
Speaker 1: Or is it the Trump administration? And this would be
Speaker 1: the you know, I would ask Gavin news From that,
Speaker 1: you know, do you you know if somebody says, you know,
Speaker 1: America is now you know a bunch of thugs that
Speaker 1: that do this or that, or you know, you're you're
Speaker 1: going to attribute it to everybody that lives in the country.
Speaker 1: Do you do that in the United States? Why do
Speaker 1: we do that with Israel all the time?
Speaker 2: I I we talked at the end of twenty twenty
Speaker 2: five about who we thought had good years and bad years,
Speaker 2: and we both agreed that Gavin Newsom then had really
Speaker 2: a remarkable twenty twenty us right, he went from like
Speaker 2: to wow, okay, like either he or Kamala Harris is
Speaker 2: the front runner. But I always remind people that, remember
Speaker 2: how Gavin Newsom started twenty twenty five. He started a
Speaker 2: podcast that was expressly aimed at interviewing people with whom
Speaker 2: he disagreed. So he had Steve Bannon on, he had
Speaker 2: the late Charlie Charlie kirk On, and that clearly was
Speaker 2: a you know what, the Democratic Party is talking to
Speaker 2: themselves too much. We need to talk more.
Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden, Gavin realized way aloud
Speaker 1: from the loud influencer left by the way, if I.
Speaker 2: Troll Donald Trump on Twitter, I and like, my point
Speaker 2: is is, like, don't Gavin Newsome is a politician. I
Speaker 2: mean that in good ways and bad ways and the
Speaker 2: bad way. He didn't decide, you know what the world needs,
Speaker 2: they need me speaking out against Donald Trump. His first
Speaker 2: inclination was after the twenty twenty four election, we need
Speaker 2: to broaden the party out and I'm gonna talk to
Speaker 2: people who with whom I disagree. That didn't go over
Speaker 2: very well. And what started to go over well was
Speaker 2: I'm gonna just troll Trump. I'm gonna give Trump his
Speaker 2: own medicine. And that propelled him. But let's not pretend
Speaker 2: that that was like the first instinct that Kevin Newsom
Speaker 2: had when he saw what had happened in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: So I do think the danger for all of these
Speaker 2: people at a national level. I know you know this
Speaker 2: better than me, is it is hard not to tell
Speaker 2: people what they want to hear. You are probably a
Speaker 2: people pleaser. It's why you do this job right, really
Speaker 2: really hard. But the truth is, when you have this
Speaker 2: level of scrutiny when you're running for president, which he
Speaker 2: is you gotta be real careful.
Speaker 1: You know. Look, and we talk about the A word authenticity,
Speaker 1: and you know it's sometimes overused and it's over over
Speaker 1: you know, can be sort of over analyzed. But I
Speaker 1: look at it. You know, it's sort of like Gavin Newsom.
Speaker 1: You know, it's like you have a your your, you
Speaker 1: have your you have a stick shift, and you're trying
Speaker 1: to let me try first gear, let me try say,
Speaker 1: let me, let me try all these different let's see
Speaker 1: what where I can get traction right. And it literally
Speaker 1: was him searching for traction versus be who you are
Speaker 1: and see if the moment meets you, that's it, right,
Speaker 1: Like there's always two you know, it's like are you
Speaker 1: you know, are you create? Are you trying to fit
Speaker 1: the moment? Or are you already there and the moment
Speaker 1: comes to you? Right?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 1: Like Donald Trump, it turns out he didn't. Everybody's like, oh,
Speaker 1: he figured No. Donald Trump has been the same erratic
Speaker 1: crank about all of American governance for the last thirty
Speaker 1: five forty.
Speaker 2: Years and he's had a victim complex his entire adult life.
Speaker 2: It's just it worked in that moment.
Speaker 1: It bit the moment, the Republican Party came to him
Speaker 1: in many ways, right, table is his anger hit. He
Speaker 1: was already a short attention span guy, a a squirrel brain,
Speaker 1: meaning social media, which basically rewards squirrel brain. Right, Oh,
Speaker 1: oh totally, that's you know, so it is in some
Speaker 1: ways and in you know why is why is Trump
Speaker 1: then defended? Well, he is who he is, and he's
Speaker 1: always been this person, and there's a lot of truth
Speaker 1: to that. Right, he may be consistently erratic on a
Speaker 1: day to day way, but in some ways he's he's
Speaker 1: he's consistently inconsistent, authentically Inauthentic's there's a there's always been
Speaker 1: an odd through line to him.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, you and I I think agree. I'm not an economist.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to although most economists say tarifts are
Speaker 2: bad policy, but they're they're terrible politics. I mean, we
Speaker 2: feel I feel very comfortable saying that. But like you
Speaker 2: can go back to interviews in the nineteen eighties where
Speaker 2: like a young businessman, Donald Trump is talking about how
Speaker 2: you know, I think at that point he was talking
Speaker 2: about Japan, but Japan is screwing us munch. So like
Speaker 2: there are he is authentic. It's the same reason why
Speaker 2: I always say those people. It's a great tribute question
Speaker 2: who who is in most polling, the most popular politician
Speaker 2: in the country, active politician in office.
Speaker 1: Is Bernie Sanders.
Speaker 2: Because people agree with him. If you go you can
Speaker 2: go back when he was the mayor of Burlington and
Speaker 2: you're like, oh shit, he's saying the same stuffy saying.
Speaker 1: Now, Actually, our friends at c SPAN, our buddy Howard Mormon,
Speaker 1: could put I think put together this this montage of
Speaker 1: clips of Bernie when he was a House member. I
Speaker 1: mean that when he was sort of the the gadfly
Speaker 1: socialist of the House, and and you know before he
Speaker 1: was a senator and people actually took him more seriously.
Speaker 1: He was saying the same thing. I don't think he
Speaker 1: said billionaires came to him. We didn't have that party.
Speaker 1: And he seen his quote unquote authentic because he he's
Speaker 1: not met the moment. The moment came to him, right, And.
Speaker 2: Who reminds me of that too? On a smaller level,
Speaker 2: Not to go too down far a rabbit hole, but
Speaker 2: remember when Ron Paul. Ron Paul ran for president a
Speaker 2: number of times, but the time that he ran where
Speaker 2: he was like marginally credible, it was because Ron Paul's
Speaker 2: views never changed. It's just that the there became a
Speaker 2: bigger streak of people interested in like, yeah, maybe the
Speaker 2: fat is bad. They were libertarianism is the right way
Speaker 2: to go. Like, it's not like Ron Paul changed.
Speaker 1: Ron Paul twenty oh two was a weirdo. And in fact,
Speaker 1: Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders were literally Statler and Waldorf
Speaker 1: for the House. Totally. They were regularly.
Speaker 2: James traffiican't la where you're like eeah, that guy gets
Speaker 2: up and says some stuff, and like they were.
Speaker 1: And the iriny is that they regularly voted the same
Speaker 1: on some foreign policy stuff. Right, they were totally much
Speaker 1: Paul was an old fashioned isolationist. Paul looked like a
Speaker 1: total extremist during the Bush era and then and by
Speaker 1: it was twenty twelve, right, he ran in Oway, but
Speaker 1: it was twenty twelve where he started. You saw it, yea,
Speaker 1: And in fact he technically finished second to Romney.
Speaker 2: I mean, if you went to any event, and I
Speaker 2: remember he.
Speaker 1: Won, he won a lot of delegate conventions.
Speaker 2: If you were at any cattle call, any kind of
Speaker 2: thing there was like you would be like, well, now
Speaker 2: it wound up being there were a lot of deeply
Speaker 2: committed people, but not enough of them. But the point
Speaker 2: is Ron Paul went from loon to.
Speaker 1: He's the godfather of the anti interventionist wing of the
Speaker 1: the Trump coalition.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: And you know by the way, I you know I did.
Speaker 1: I saw that you promoted my quote unquote hot take
Speaker 1: right about Vans that this is I think. And you know,
Speaker 1: as much as I'm always hesitant to be the to
Speaker 1: be a hot taker on this one, I feel like
Speaker 1: I don't. There's no way you believe it.
Speaker 2: My view is it's not a hot believe it. You're
Speaker 2: not saying you want to get attention. You're saying it
Speaker 2: because you believe it.
Speaker 1: Right, I'm like, I don't see.
Speaker 2: We don't have an I'm good at right ideas, but.
Speaker 1: I don't see others as recoverable for him long term.
Speaker 1: That doesn't mean he won't be the Republican nominee, because
Speaker 1: he will be president.
Speaker 2: Willfully misunderstood the quote bash for that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, it's not that we're saying.
Speaker 2: You're saying, I just think a general.
Speaker 1: Well, he just lost the most interesting part of his
Speaker 1: political identity. And and once you lose something that was
Speaker 1: uniquely yours. And when you're vice president, you lose a
Speaker 1: lot of your own political identity and you lose something
Speaker 1: that was uniquely yours, right that that sort of gave
Speaker 1: him right his entrance into this. Right, he's the Iraq
Speaker 1: War veteran that was like, wait a minute, we can't
Speaker 1: keep doing this. We're sending the same people. They all
Speaker 1: are people that lived in the areas of rural Ohio
Speaker 1: that I grew up in. Right, That's who we're sending
Speaker 1: on these wars. We're not sending the sons and daughters
Speaker 1: of Donald J. Trump, you know, and the rich people.
Speaker 1: And he's now lost that identity. It does doesn't mean
Speaker 1: it ends his career. It just means I don't think
Speaker 1: he's ever going to get elected president of the United
Speaker 1: States now, because it's sort of a core part. When
Speaker 1: you lose a core part of your identity, I don't
Speaker 1: know how you recover.
Speaker 2: It's hard to get it back.
Speaker 1: It's hard to get it's almost it's impossible to get.
Speaker 2: And look, yes, being very tightly affiliated with Donald Trump
Speaker 2: in a Republican primary in twenty twenty eight is probably
Speaker 2: I still think net net a very good thing. Being
Speaker 2: associated with Donald Trump in that legacy unless that legacy changes, right.
Speaker 2: I mean, we're talking about a president who's in the
Speaker 2: upper thirties low forties in approval general electorate. The gap
Speaker 2: between what Republicans like and what independence and Democrats like
Speaker 2: is getting an Independence are very much moving over to
Speaker 2: democratic views right now.
Speaker 1: Well, what's interesting, And you know it's funny yesterday, yesterday
Speaker 1: or earlier this week, I was, you know, I've been
Speaker 1: so consumed by the primaries that I sort of didn't
Speaker 1: I wasn't hour to hour paying attention to the Iran
Speaker 1: or spinning that was taking place by the administration. And
Speaker 1: then you sort of step back the next day and absorb,
Speaker 1: you know, first of all, what an utter mess. And
Speaker 1: when you actually put together what happened in Texas on
Speaker 1: Tuesday night, with the absolute erratic nature of trying to
Speaker 1: essentially create a rationale for why you did this, and
Speaker 1: your rationale keeps changing, this has been a disaster week
Speaker 1: for the Republicans that are on the ballot in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty six. It is very difficult to defend what's going
Speaker 1: on right now.
Speaker 2: It's the problem is it's like I don't think Iran
Speaker 2: decides the selection, but Every day Donald Trump is talking
Speaker 2: about Iran or Ecuador or Ukraine in Russia is a
Speaker 2: day he is not Remember the affordability tour that he
Speaker 2: was going to go on that Susie Wilds touted.
Speaker 1: I'm telling you, it's like Infrastructure week, I mean the
Speaker 1: infrastructure week of the second term.
Speaker 2: It's like it's it's March, you know, Like it's like
Speaker 2: that's two months that have been totally pissed away. Not
Speaker 2: only people start making their people's minds start getting They
Speaker 2: don't make their mind up on the day before the election, right,
Speaker 2: the parameters get set months before.
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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, or do you want to talk
Speaker 2: you about the Upstate is previously your latching your the
Speaker 2: economy is good. Argument that Donald Trump has done to
Speaker 2: the stock market is literally political malpractice. I mean, it's
Speaker 2: just so dumb.
Speaker 1: Because you can't control it well, and this sort of
Speaker 1: pivots and it's sort of like, you know, I want
Speaker 1: to I want to read you this anonymous quote that
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Speaker 1: This is what James Blair, the White House political director,
Speaker 1: will be doing. This is what senior staff will be
Speaker 1: dealing with. And that is a problem. He goes, it
Speaker 1: needs to get over quick. Otherwise this is an effing nightmare.
Speaker 1: It already is a nightmare because you've got the Mega
Speaker 1: Coalition just tearing at the seams. Anything in a game
Speaker 1: of subtraction right now is effing disastrous. Anything that we
Speaker 1: do that hurts our own base is catastrophic. They need
Speaker 1: to explain to the American people and they need, frankly,
Speaker 1: to do it pretty quickly and specifically to the Republican base. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and it's already they're all over the place. Was it
Speaker 1: the Saudis that talked it's into it? Was it the Israel?
Speaker 2: Did MBS convince Donald Trump do it? Did we do
Speaker 2: do as Israel was going in any way?
Speaker 1: Or And then this idea that we didn't have a
Speaker 1: plan to evacuate Americans from the region because it was
Speaker 1: too quick, Well, there's also reporting that indicates that they
Speaker 1: delayed this a week because of weather. They were actually
Speaker 1: going to do this the weekend before the State of
Speaker 1: the Year, before State of the Union, and it literally
Speaker 1: weather was the only reason they decided to tap the brakes.
Speaker 1: So meaning you were preparing, you were preparing long enough
Speaker 1: to send two big time aircraft carriers to the region.
Speaker 1: You don't think about a plan to evacuate a Americans
Speaker 1: out of the Middle East. And now you're basically like
Speaker 1: tough luck. You've got John Rahm, a golfer, having to
Speaker 1: send his own plane to do buy me b Look,
Speaker 1: he's nobody's crying for him. They got money to do
Speaker 1: private plane stuff. God bless him. But the United States
Speaker 1: government isn't going to look out for its own US
Speaker 1: citizens in the region. And the dismissiveness of Trump on
Speaker 1: this is you know, uh, these are these are his own,
Speaker 1: these are his own voters.
Speaker 2: And what what was the biggest foreign policy critique that
Speaker 2: Trump latched onto in the twenty twenty four campaign. Joe
Speaker 2: Biden mishandled the ending of Afghanistan. People were left there
Speaker 2: who shouldn't have been left, Like, it's all I mean,
Speaker 2: it's it's it's almost two on the nose.
Speaker 1: If atocracy or a currency, Trump would even be wealthier
Speaker 1: than he is.
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean it's yeah, I mean, and that's nothing
Speaker 2: that we're not even getting into the like Tulci Gabbard said,
Speaker 2: we can't go to war with Iraq. JD. Van said
Speaker 2: there shouldn't be a war with the with Aron Rather. J. D.
Speaker 2: Vance said the same, you know what I mean, Like, oh,
Speaker 2: Donald Trump said we got to end forever wars. It's
Speaker 2: like and and and even Chuck, is it.
Speaker 1: A war or not?
Speaker 2: They can't even agree within themselves on Mark.
Speaker 1: The Mark Wayne Mullin, I mean, it was you know
Speaker 1: what you needed, you know when they did that. There's
Speaker 1: this Mark Wade Mullin like back and forth, you just
Speaker 1: called it a war. Well it's you know, you know
Speaker 1: that used to be the way Veep would end. And
Speaker 1: you just sort of play the music, right.
Speaker 2: Cloe is closer to a documentary than people realize.
Speaker 1: Just play the beat music out of that, Mark Wade Mullein,
Speaker 1: play the cub music, you know, or what of the
Speaker 1: one of the two, and you just walk away. You're like,
Speaker 1: are you kidding me?
Speaker 2: You know, it doesn't make any sense.
Speaker 1: It just doesn't. It just doesn't.
Speaker 2: I mean, there's no way to make it make sense.
Speaker 1: Well, now we've got a let's let's large large picture here. Yeah,
Speaker 1: how in play is the Senate?
Speaker 2: So I looked, I looked kind of mid week at
Speaker 2: the prediction markets, which we can debate forever, and I
Speaker 2: know we've talked about like how accurate is that?
Speaker 1: Well, the production markets look really accurate when it came
Speaker 1: to their confidence in tall Rico and look really stupid
Speaker 1: in their confidence and backstent exactly. So it's like, you know, right,
Speaker 1: there's no difference exactly.
Speaker 2: They're in the low forties for Democrats. Chances of taking
Speaker 2: the scent.
Speaker 1: That's all. That's a right ish, that's a six point hike.
Speaker 1: By the way, since the end of twenty five. Remember
Speaker 1: it's gone up. It was one in three, rightly, And
Speaker 1: I remember at the time I had said at that price, uh,
Speaker 1: it's a goodbye, because I think that that the perception
Speaker 1: of Democrats chances in the Senate. And that's the interesting
Speaker 1: you know, that to me is what I will concede.
Speaker 1: What makes the prediction markets interesting to me is the
Speaker 1: ability to cash a ticket before the result happens. Where
Speaker 1: it is now how she.
Speaker 2: On Calshi and this will this obviously can move. But
Speaker 2: it's fifty five percent chance Republicans control the Senate. Forty
Speaker 2: five percent chance the Senate. Now that's that actual might
Speaker 2: be a little artificial high off of tall Rico winning
Speaker 2: and they're being a runoff and on the Republican side market,
Speaker 2: these markets are very susceptible the random news occurrence, right,
Speaker 2: But what but it tells you where, It tells you
Speaker 2: where people's minds are, and.
Speaker 1: They're starting to pay more attention to Alaska and Iowa.
Speaker 2: All if you have to win, if you have to
Speaker 2: net at a minimum three, if Murkowski maybe in the
Speaker 2: chuck tout theory, switches parties. But let's just let's put
Speaker 2: that out of mind, and let's say it's for if
Speaker 2: you have to net for what you cannot do. We've
Speaker 2: learned this election after election you cannot only have four
Speaker 2: Republican seats where you have any chance. It's just you
Speaker 2: have no margin, right, And I think what they've done is,
Speaker 2: I think you have to feel really good if you're
Speaker 2: a Democrat about.
Speaker 1: Roy Cooper in North Carolina.
Speaker 2: Let's see about the primary in Maine. But it's you know,
Speaker 2: it's a state Kamala Harrison one, it's going to be
Speaker 2: a Democratic year. I never count Susan Colin top. But
Speaker 2: you got to feel good there, you know. And then
Speaker 2: it gets down to the kind of like Okay, Alaska, Iowa, Texas.
Speaker 1: What about Nebraska. I mean, you know, it's a tie
Speaker 1: tide race right now.
Speaker 2: The point is is the fact that we can throw
Speaker 2: those out there suggests to me that they have enough
Speaker 2: pieces on the playing field where it doesn't have to
Speaker 2: be either we pull a royal flush or nothing, right,
Speaker 2: so like there are different paths to get there.
Speaker 1: I also I made the case of my podcast on
Speaker 1: Wednesday that this is actually not that expensive of a
Speaker 1: cycle when you look at the seats that the Democrats
Speaker 1: have to defend. You're looking at Georgia and Michigan. In
Speaker 1: I would argue Minnesota, in New Hampshire lately, my soft
Speaker 1: will raise.
Speaker 2: So much on his own r that you probably aren't
Speaker 2: going to have to handle that.
Speaker 1: You know, they don't have a New York or California
Speaker 1: that they're spending, or Pennsylvania or in Illinois even or
Speaker 1: even Illinois right Republicans aren't putting that in play, so
Speaker 1: they don't have expensive races in the biggest states. So
Speaker 1: the question is how and this gets it to do
Speaker 1: you if you're Chuck Schumer, you're JB. Persh, do you
Speaker 1: play in Texas in the run.
Speaker 2: How much do you believe in Texas? That's it?
Speaker 1: Do you really do you work hard to help Paxton
Speaker 1: win that runoff? Do you? And how do you do it?
Speaker 1: Do you do the positive ad that thanks John Cornyn
Speaker 1: for being a gun control advocate? You know, do you
Speaker 1: do that kind of starkiness or do you do it
Speaker 1: the other way of ken Paxton is.
Speaker 2: Too close to conservative for Texas sponsored by the Democratic Party,
Speaker 2: he's too right or he's too.
Speaker 1: Pro Trump right the way totally. If they're serious about
Speaker 1: winning the Senate. We see stuff like that, and you
Speaker 1: so you could pay probably and I don't, and I
Speaker 1: wonder if they'll do it. I'll be curious.
Speaker 2: That's also a cheaper day. I think if you meddle
Speaker 2: in that runoff, then if like you feel like you've
Speaker 2: got to go in for twenty five million to make
Speaker 2: any impact in a general right, like you could probably
Speaker 2: for ten million ish make make a dent potentially in
Speaker 2: the runoff pro Paxton. It's a little bit dangerous. But
Speaker 2: at the same time, I think the only people who
Speaker 2: are like I can't believe filling the blank party is
Speaker 2: meddling with other fill in the blank party are like
Speaker 2: media types. I don't think the average person gives a
Speaker 2: crap No, Like I just don't think they care. It's
Speaker 2: like people who bang the drum on campaign finance. For me, yes,
Speaker 2: big money is less is more powerful now and less
Speaker 2: transparent than ever before. You know how many voters care
Speaker 2: about it? Almost no?
Speaker 1: No, And look it should be it should be a
Speaker 1: bothers voter. But you know, good luck we well we
Speaker 1: were just we mentioned in passing race. We can talk
Speaker 1: more about it.
Speaker 2: But the Illinois racement is just gross. It's great, it's gross,
Speaker 2: but like again, these people, people don't see it. It
Speaker 2: gets disclosed late in all these super packs and stuff.
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, the Committee to Protect Goodness and Light. Well,
Speaker 2: that seems like a good group, but what's wrong, Like
Speaker 2: it's you know, people don't see it and they don't
Speaker 2: engage at the level we're at the point is is
Speaker 2: like I think, you the minor hit you might take
Speaker 2: for meddling, it probably is well worth the potential upside
Speaker 2: because if Cornin is the nominee, Tallery.
Speaker 1: By the way meddling works, okay, And do we have.
Speaker 2: Any doubt, Like I think Tallarico loses to corn in
Speaker 2: fifty four to forty six.
Speaker 1: I would, I would probably say it's more like Cruise Meadow.
Speaker 1: But I agree, I think it's two to three points.
Speaker 1: Like I okay, but but it's very.
Speaker 2: Hard to see go beating Cornyn, even in a really.
Speaker 1: Good democratic I think corn gets forty seven of corn It.
Speaker 1: I think Tallarico gets forty. I think his Florida's going
Speaker 1: to be forty seven forty eight. I think it's Flora's
Speaker 1: beadows Florida where is against Paxton.
Speaker 2: I think if you ran the race one hundred times.
Speaker 2: I think Paxson would win it more times in tall Rico.
Speaker 2: But it's not a lot more times than tall Rico,
Speaker 2: do you know what I mean? Like it's and so
Speaker 2: it's like do you do you place a bet there?
Speaker 2: And and like you said, Texas ain't cheap, So it's
Speaker 2: it's you know, how do you feel? I'm fascinated by
Speaker 2: the rankings of Like I think we would all agree
Speaker 2: North Carolina and Maine are clearly Democrats' best chances, right,
Speaker 2: But it's like stuff, Then how do we sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas,
Speaker 2: and Iowa? Like, how do you That's I think.
Speaker 1: I look and we had a couple of guests make
Speaker 1: this case last night. I I think I agree that
Speaker 1: Alaska is the next best place because you have somebody
Speaker 1: that actually won state wide. She's one state wide, right,
Speaker 1: And yes, I know Sharon Brown has and yes, the
Speaker 1: last time he won was in a midterm year. That
Speaker 1: is true. You know, I do think, you know, I
Speaker 1: don't know if he fits the moment.
Speaker 2: I think that he's had a lot of electric offices.
Speaker 1: There is he's he's got a high floor, low ceiling.
Speaker 1: I think we know this about share, And it may
Speaker 1: be that you could spend fifty million dollars on that
Speaker 1: race and he'll get forty eight percent, And you can
Speaker 1: correct five million dollars in that race and he'll get
Speaker 1: forty eight percent.
Speaker 2: Now a half percent, right exactly.
Speaker 1: There's there's an argument to be made that money isn't
Speaker 1: going to be what decides as relative. It really is
Speaker 1: about Republican turnout, you know. And is there a depression
Speaker 1: a little bit? And do Independence come in in greater number?
Speaker 1: Do you get a supercharge of Democratic voters to show
Speaker 1: up and Independence break sixty forty rather than say fifty
Speaker 1: three forty seven?
Speaker 2: Totally, you know, And I don't know if the intrigued
Speaker 2: by Iowa, if Josh Turik is the nominee, we had somebody.
Speaker 1: I think his story is interesting that totally wrote off
Speaker 1: Iowa because Jody Ernst wasn't. And I'm just sitting there going, yeah,
Speaker 1: you've never with all respect you know, if you if
Speaker 1: you've not seen Jonie Ernstein, the trail's no good like
Speaker 1: a really good campaigner.
Speaker 2: So and like Ashley is a good nominee, She's going
Speaker 2: to raise money, but like she never runs statewide before.
Speaker 1: And again.
Speaker 2: The wind in the face of Republicans and it's like
Speaker 2: turk to me. You know again. Paralympian he won two
Speaker 2: gold medals as a Paralympian basketball player. The guy's got
Speaker 2: an amazing story. He's I think if he's the nominee,
Speaker 2: be really hard to attack. That's not easy to attack
Speaker 2: like and may have it. He represents a district that
Speaker 2: Trump won, like, there's there's some there there. I'm kind
Speaker 2: of keeping that.
Speaker 1: One on hold, so let me try to land this plane.
Speaker 1: I did a substack this week about sort of kicking
Speaker 1: off the midterms and through the prism of twenty eight,
Speaker 1: meaning yep, look, we're not going, We're not going. Twenty
Speaker 1: six is going to offer us clues about how twenty
Speaker 1: eight may play out, right. Clue Number one was a
Speaker 1: topic we've already discussed. The Democrats want a fighter? Are
Speaker 1: they looking for, in the words of my acquaintance, no
Speaker 1: more bomb throwers?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: You know, what's the what's the what's the attitude in Texas?
Speaker 1: The clearly the attitude is please no bomb throwers. Give
Speaker 1: us somebody that can win. Let's see if that translates
Speaker 1: throughout the primary season. Number two is sort of the
Speaker 1: impact of Trump, Right, is Trump and that positive and
Speaker 1: that negative? How badly do you still need them? Obviously
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear Trump is still the most animating force.
Speaker 1: This is not a party that is yet thinking about
Speaker 1: the swing voter in the middle. And you know, is
Speaker 1: the White House focused on this? No, they don't appear
Speaker 1: to be. And you know that's a whole separate ball game. Right.
Speaker 1: If Trump takes the blame for a double whamming loss
Speaker 1: in the midterms, meaning House and Senate, how does that
Speaker 1: impact twenty eight Right, that's we'll figure out. But the
Speaker 1: third item here is the last item that we haven't
Speaker 1: talked about. And we got a new candidate officially announced
Speaker 1: in Montana. Yep, the former president of University of Montana,
Speaker 1: who's running as an independent, announced by trashing both the
Speaker 1: d's and the R saying both parties have let you down.
Speaker 1: John Tester, the former Democratic senator, has already endorsed him.
Speaker 1: There is a Democratic candidate and instead testers endorsing the independent.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at all of these these independent testers out here,
Speaker 1: whether it's Duggan and Michigan, Osborne and Nebraska Bodner. Now
Speaker 1: in Montana, South Dakota's got Dakota, Kansas looks like they're
Speaker 1: going to get one.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: Coming close is an interesting to me.
Speaker 2: You know, that's why we like this. Someone wins and
Speaker 2: someone loses.
Speaker 1: That's right. If if an independent breaks through, if one
Speaker 1: breaks through in any of those states, I think that's
Speaker 1: a big deal. Small deal, medium deal.
Speaker 2: I think big deal. I talked to Mike Dougan, former
Speaker 2: Detroit mayor running for governories. You know, I think he's
Speaker 2: in the mix. I don't think he's ahead, but I
Speaker 2: think he's in the mix. And his point was a
Speaker 2: point that you and I have talked about for decades,
Speaker 2: which is people need proof of concept. People won't buy
Speaker 2: that an independent can win a real statewide race and
Speaker 2: really matter until an independent it's a real states like
Speaker 2: we yes, we had when I was growing up, we
Speaker 2: had Lol Wiker in Connecticut. Angus King was elected as
Speaker 2: a governor as an independent, right. I mean, it happens,
Speaker 2: but it usually happens in smaller states. And it's like
Speaker 2: if Michigan elects an independent, a guy who's expressly running
Speaker 2: like I was a Democrat, I'm you know, I think
Speaker 2: both parties have failed us. I want to solve problems
Speaker 2: it's a little bit an easy argument to make it
Speaker 2: for governor than for Senate. But I think that's what
Speaker 2: you need. I'm fascinated by that Michigan. You turned me
Speaker 2: on too, that Michigan governor's race. And because what you
Speaker 2: have is like two only o k likely nominees for
Speaker 2: the two parties, like jo Justly Benson, the s fine
Speaker 2: I think with the James, John James on the Republican side,
Speaker 2: he's totally fine, competent, speaks. There's nothing there's not like
Speaker 2: a Wimer in that field.
Speaker 1: And it's a little unfair to Jocelyn Benson. You know.
Speaker 1: It's like when you're the when you're the next woman
Speaker 1: in line behind a popular woman governor.
Speaker 2: That's true, or even Melissa slack Kid. My point is
Speaker 2: there's not somebody who's like an obvious shining star that
Speaker 2: could be it. I'm fascinated by that. And and look,
Speaker 2: it's both a condemnation of the Democratic brand in the
Speaker 2: Plaine States and also a really interesting experiment in the
Speaker 2: Plain States because all these people are aligned loosely. But
Speaker 2: but if I had to choose in South Dakota, Montana,
Speaker 2: the Kansas guy in South and and Nebraska, all of
Speaker 2: those guys running his independence, they're more on the Democratic
Speaker 2: side than the Republican side, but they have none of
Speaker 2: them identify as a Democrat because they can't win.
Speaker 1: None of them would win with a D next to
Speaker 1: their name.
Speaker 2: Don't even have a chance. And that I think they
Speaker 2: will admit that, and that's that's a brand problem for
Speaker 2: the party. But it's interesting.
Speaker 1: It's like what I help right, What to me? What
Speaker 1: makes Duggan's candidacy different is he's running as an independent
Speaker 1: win Arguably he could have had a better shot at
Speaker 1: winning a primary because he was mayor of Detroit. He
Speaker 1: would have been the Democratic nominee, probably would have been
Speaker 1: the Democratic nominee, and but it was harder and he
Speaker 1: would have to run a bit more partisan, and he
Speaker 1: chose that he thought he could govern better as an independent,
Speaker 1: which is from that is at is something you don't.
Speaker 1: You rarely see someone make a choice that is harder politically.
Speaker 1: It would have been easier to become governor by running
Speaker 1: in a Democratic primary, and he chose not to. Look,
Speaker 1: I'm one of those I split the difference. I think
Speaker 1: it's a big deal if Dougan wins. I think it's
Speaker 1: a medium deal. If any of the Senate independents wins
Speaker 1: and less more than one wins. Sure, right, if both
Speaker 1: Osborne and say Bodner the Montana Nebraska both go, I, oh, well,
Speaker 1: then that's a big story. Then that's a big story.
Speaker 1: And then that's a that's an entirely different conversation. And
Speaker 1: I think what that will do. And I think a
Speaker 1: dug in victory all of them do this more than
Speaker 1: one eye winning, I think almost guarantees we're going to
Speaker 1: have a three way president.
Speaker 2: I was literally just gonna say, you will see the
Speaker 2: independent third party candidates lining up thrife for president.
Speaker 1: But that's but twenty six is the testing ground told
Speaker 1: you've got to be able to break through.
Speaker 2: If you can't love that storyline, I'm fascinated by it.
Speaker 1: You can't, but I but I'm going to be as
Speaker 1: much as I'm a I'm an advocate of this moment
Speaker 1: for for for independence. If you can't win now, I
Speaker 1: don't think the water is going to ever be any better. Well,
Speaker 1: and so if it does party identification, it doesn't work now,
Speaker 1: it's not going to work galas party identification.
Speaker 2: I think Democrats and Republican party ID is at twenty
Speaker 2: seven percent lower and Independence at forty five. I mean,
Speaker 2: so it say to your point, like, if you can't
Speaker 2: win with people hating the two political parties, I don't
Speaker 2: know when you do it.
Speaker 1: All right, let me really get you out of hearing this.
Speaker 1: Do you read Carl Hyson? Were you ever a big
Speaker 1: fan of his? He's a Florida man, right, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2: Arguably he did one of his books. He's like a
Speaker 2: funny writer. I remember, yes, I need to read more
Speaker 2: because I remember I liked the one I read.
Speaker 1: My frustration with with with Carl is that they haven't
Speaker 1: made more of his books out of movie strip. Tea's
Speaker 1: was the first big movie he got, the Burt Reynolds
Speaker 1: and It's not the sugar industry and it's the book
Speaker 1: is fantastic. The movie wasn't bad. Burt Reynolds plays a
Speaker 1: great sleevesball congressman. Yeah, I mean he really, it's it's
Speaker 1: it was the role our Ferguson he was, he was.
Speaker 1: It was you know what if you told me it
Speaker 1: was actually Norm MacDonald playing Burt Reynolds.
Speaker 2: That's like one of my favorite impersonations.
Speaker 1: It's fantastic because it's not right. That's what's so great
Speaker 1: about it? It's just not an impersonation. No, but I'm
Speaker 1: very excited. There's a new Carl Hyson book being turned
Speaker 1: into to a TV show, and uh, I'm just very
Speaker 1: excited about it. I think Amazon Prime is going to
Speaker 1: have it.
Speaker 2: What is what book is? R J?
Speaker 1: Decker is what the new show? It's on ABC. It's
Speaker 1: from his book Double Whamming on broadcast broadcast. That's sorry,
Speaker 1: I thought it was trying not to.
Speaker 2: Watch a lot of broadcast TV, Chuck. It doesn't fit
Speaker 2: with my hipster personality, I know.
Speaker 1: But you know, both ABC and CBS are desperate and
Speaker 1: NBC are desperate to be cool again, so they're green
Speaker 1: lighting grittier television. I like it, you know, but I'm
Speaker 1: just very happy. I think more. Look, my favorite Carl
Speaker 1: Hyson book is called Tour Season. Kay, it is it is?
Speaker 1: What is it? It's it's a former Miami Dolphin, a
Speaker 1: former reporter, a Mikasuki Indian, and a Cuban exile I
Speaker 1: who are sort of this group of guys who are
Speaker 1: just going to rid Florida of its asshole tourists.
Speaker 2: And it's just a it's just I love the concept.
Speaker 2: I'm already in on the concept.
Speaker 1: They never kill anybody. They just let the tourists and
Speaker 1: the alligators fight it out.
Speaker 2: Darwin situations. Yeah it is.
Speaker 1: But Carl was a political columnist forever in the Miami
Speaker 1: Heralds and basically when you chronicle all the crazy Florida
Speaker 1: man stories that go back, he and Dave Barry, by
Speaker 1: the way, how great you know, back in the day
Speaker 1: in the Miami Herald. Dave Barry and carlas I grew
Speaker 1: up with. And it's like, this is why I got
Speaker 1: into journalism and newspaper guys, because you had great columnists
Speaker 1: in my local paper, you know, that were just hilarious.
Speaker 1: You know, my parents would always go, did you read
Speaker 1: what Dave Barry said? Did you read what Carl heist writing.
Speaker 2: A sports section with Tony Kornheiser, Mike Wilbon and Shirley
Speaker 2: Povitch you get of it? Wait, no one would do
Speaker 2: that that, you would be idiotic.
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, at least the Miami Herald still actually wants
Speaker 1: to publish a Hyatin column every now and then, and
Speaker 1: at Dave Barry, by the way, Dave Barry is a substack.
Speaker 2: I know, and it's funny as hell.
Speaker 1: It's really funny. I know he's not everybody's cup of tea,
Speaker 1: but it's funny.
Speaker 2: My wife yells at me because she's like, we just
Speaker 2: got another charge on your Kindle. How many books can
Speaker 2: you possibly read? And I was like, if that's my
Speaker 2: worst vice, so I'm going to go buy to our season.
Speaker 2: So if my wife yells at you, it's because I
Speaker 2: blamed you for it.
Speaker 1: It's It's fantastic and I believe. I do believe he's
Speaker 1: one of his fictional characters is who he thinks Lawton
Speaker 1: Child's would be if he w Yeah, he's got a
Speaker 1: great lot of Child