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Speaker 1: Go to qu I n ce dot com slash chuck

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Speaker 1: for free shipping, three hundred sixty five day returns quints

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Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. Well, I normally am on the

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Speaker 1: receiving end of this, but he's Chris, and this is

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Speaker 1: Crystaliz's a guest appearance on the Check podcast. And those

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Speaker 1: of you that may not know this, and maybe some

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Speaker 1: of you don't know, I appear weekly on your Behind

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Speaker 1: the Paywall podcast. You're an elite you're an elite network influencer. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a Britique offering. You have a velvet rope behind

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Speaker 1: our conversations. You know, I'm a man of the people,

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Speaker 1: as you know, and say no, you we're getting rid

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Speaker 1: of the velvet rope just for this.

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Speaker 2: When I heard when I got the email that I

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Speaker 2: was being asked to be on the Chuck podcast, I

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Speaker 2: immediately told my wife. I've made it.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: Well, I thought Chuck was blackballing me off of the

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Speaker 2: Chuck Podcast. Apparently not. He must be hard off for guests.

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Speaker 2: Somebody canceled.

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Speaker 1: No, I bucked ken Burns for you. But how about that,

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Speaker 1: you know America's two hundred and fiftieth birthday in the

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Speaker 1: American Revolution. We can wait a few days on that.

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Speaker 2: Can I trade bank accounts?

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Speaker 1: Now? Well that's there, you got I teeth. Look we

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Speaker 1: were we did a live stream on Tuesday night. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but you know, in many cases, you know, you have

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Speaker 1: the immediate moments when you deal, and then you know,

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Speaker 1: you get a day, you get a night, you get

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Speaker 1: to sort of see this. And you know, since we

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Speaker 1: last saw you as a pair, Jasmine Crockett is conceited

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Speaker 1: quite quickly. And I think there was some question about

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Speaker 1: whether Taller I think Taller Rico's management of that was

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Speaker 1: quite deft when he said, hey, we're not calling, We're

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Speaker 1: not claiming victory until all the votes are counted in Dallas,

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Speaker 1: which has made it harder for Crockett to have a

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Speaker 1: grievance when her own opponent was willing to have her

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Speaker 1: back there. And now it's you know, and now all

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Speaker 1: the all the eyes are on the Republican side. By

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Speaker 1: the way, we still don't have all the votes in No,

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Speaker 1: we still don't.

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Speaker 2: Have Look, it's like ninety five percent, and I do

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Speaker 2: think Cornan will finish a heag marginally. I mean, it's

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Speaker 2: it's basically going to effectively be a wash. It's eight

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Speaker 2: ninety seven point eighty four to eight seventy one, six seventy.

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Speaker 2: So Cornyan has had by twenty six thousand votes with

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Speaker 2: ninety more than ninety five percent.

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Speaker 1: In Here is the stat that moved me the most

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Speaker 1: that I saw today, and that is in counties that

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump one by fifty points or more. In the

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Speaker 1: deep red Texas County, Okay, all right, Paxton consistently led

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Speaker 1: corn In by four to five points for four to

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Speaker 1: forty when you put all those together. So I look

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Speaker 1: at that and you're just, you know, Cornyn, the question

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Speaker 1: is can Cornn get to fifty? Right?

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Speaker 2: Like?

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Speaker 1: You know this is you start to look and I

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Speaker 1: it's you know, it's fascinating. I'm gonna share an anecdote

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Speaker 1: with you. I was running some errands on Wednesday morning,

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Speaker 1: and you know, you know, you live in your neighborhood.

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Speaker 1: You have the same people you run into and you know,

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Speaker 1: and these are people that are not political people, but

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Speaker 1: they know what I do for a living. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I was ran into one of these acquaintances and I said, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm tired. I was covering the Texas primaries. You know,

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Speaker 1: I'm just sort of groggy, sorry, or something like that.

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Speaker 1: And this person said, oh, those were last night. He goes,

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Speaker 1: so what happened? And you know, meaning but you know,

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Speaker 1: you know, and I said, and he said, who won

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Speaker 1: that Democratic? And I said, the young pastor did Tella Rico?

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Speaker 1: He goes, oh, I'm relieved. He goes, you know, I

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Speaker 1: just exhausted from the bomb throwers. And it was just,

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Speaker 1: you know, we've been having this debate, Chris, right, which

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Speaker 1: is where is the Democratic primary electorate? Is it in

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Speaker 1: fight mode or is it in exhaustion mode? And in

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen it felt exhaustion right, they were in twenty twenty,

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen and twenty twenty it was less fight back

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Speaker 1: and more like this is crazy, let's have a reset,

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Speaker 1: and they're all The messaging was sort of around that.

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Speaker 1: All the candidates sort of leaned into that whether you're

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Speaker 1: Alyssa Slotkin. And yet this first year of Trump's second term,

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Speaker 1: we've seen the fighters, whether it's Gavin Newsom in the

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Speaker 1: presidential stakes, or frankly, it was Jasmine Crockett who jumped

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Speaker 1: out sort of tortoise and hair type of mindset. Right.

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Speaker 1: She jumped out early and was doing better than I

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Speaker 1: think a lot of us expected, and we thought, oh boy,

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Speaker 1: this this fighter mentality maybe getting you know, Democrats, maybe

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Speaker 1: they want to punch her. They don't necessarily want a preacher,

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Speaker 1: and yet they do. You know, you look at the twenty,

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Speaker 1: then you look at the Virginia New Jersey races. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and you look at the the style of Mom Donnie Okay,

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Speaker 1: which is moderate in tone even if it's progressive, totalte

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Speaker 1: and you're asked and you're like, maybe Gavin Newsom has

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Speaker 1: this wrong, maybe he's making a mistake.

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Speaker 2: It's so funny that you said that, because one of

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Speaker 2: the things I really like, it's always hard. I'll first say,

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Speaker 2: it's always hard when we're live and we're trying to

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Speaker 2: analyze in real time. You're not totally sure where the

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Speaker 2: votes are coming from, and you obviously don't have a

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Speaker 2: minute to kind of step back and just be like,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to go through each race. I'm gonna look

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Speaker 2: at each race and be like, oh, that's interesting, that's

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Speaker 2: not It's hard to have like deeper thoughts. That's why

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Speaker 2: I like a couple days after you can sort through.

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Speaker 2: I was on Wednesday morning. I was just looking at

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Speaker 2: the results and I was thinking about the conversations you

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Speaker 2: and I have had in the run up to this

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Speaker 2: Tallar Eico Crockett, which is that a lot of the

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Speaker 2: national media has painted this as liberal husband Crockett against

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Speaker 2: moderate James Telrico, which is totally wrong. And I'll point

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Speaker 2: you to it. There's a great stat out there. There's

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Speaker 2: a great map online that shows that in the counties

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Speaker 2: that Bernie Sanders won in the Texas primary, tell Rico

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Speaker 2: won by forty points. I mean, the reason that he

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Speaker 2: won is because of the left. Crockett was never a

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Speaker 2: that was never a governing dynamic. But the other thing

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Speaker 2: I was thinking about, to your point, is like the

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Speaker 2: fighter versus uniter or the you know, the the over

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Speaker 2: partisan versus the kind of I don't want to call

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Speaker 2: Tallary called bipartisan, but a lot less partisan energy. And

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Speaker 2: I was thinking, you know, what like, it's one data point.

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Speaker 2: But if I'm Pete boodage age or like a Shapiro.

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Speaker 1: I feel like a bit Andy Bisheer.

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Speaker 2: I felt a little bit better after on the day

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Speaker 2: after than I did the day before. And again it's

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Speaker 2: one data point. Like if Graham Plattner in Maine goes

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Speaker 2: and beach Janet Mills by thirty points, Okay, we're never

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Speaker 2: having a different conversation, right, you know, so I would.

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Speaker 1: Also, I don't want to discount the following phenomenon, which

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Speaker 1: is there's you know, when you've been beaten to a

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Speaker 1: pulp like Texas Democrats have been for the last twenty years,

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Speaker 1: you're you're like anything, you know, there's there's a I'm

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Speaker 1: going to quote an old Eddie Murphy stand up line.

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Speaker 1: It is like when you're a starving person, any cracker

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Speaker 1: tastes like our ritz, you know, and he's like, oh man,

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Speaker 1: this is a great cracker. When you're starving, anything tastes

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Speaker 1: like our writs. Right, And it is so that there

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Speaker 1: is you know, this is why you know, one primary

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Speaker 1: does not make a trend, and you have to wait

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Speaker 1: and we have to watch and look Illinois in two

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Speaker 1: weeks presents. You know, there's all sorts of flavors of

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Speaker 1: Democrats you can pick from in that Democratic primary in

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Speaker 1: Illinois that frankly I think has been hijacked by big

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Speaker 1: money in a way that gosh to two extraordinary methods.

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Speaker 1: But let's put a pin in that buying the office, no,

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Speaker 1: no doubt. But when you what you have so I

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Speaker 1: you know, is this say Texas Democrats are exhausted and

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Speaker 1: they're looking for a winner, you know? Or is this

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Speaker 1: you know? So that's that'd be the only caution I

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Speaker 1: want to put in here. But I have to say.

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Speaker 1: Nate Silver wrote a really interesting piece this morning on

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Speaker 1: Wednesday about Kid tell Rico win correct and it was

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Speaker 1: I I was talking about this issue of partisan versus moderate,

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Speaker 1: which is that we and he correctly said a lot

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Speaker 1: of sort of inexperienced I call him in a you know,

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Speaker 1: the problem with big mainstream media these days, or whatever's

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Speaker 1: left of it, is that there's a lot of important

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Speaker 1: legacy titles with a lot of inexperienced political reporters, you

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Speaker 1: know who think politics started you know, after you know,

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Speaker 1: when Donald Trump came down the escalator and don't really

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Speaker 1: have a lot of experience beyond sort of the last

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Speaker 1: eight to ten years of American politics. And and so

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Speaker 1: you know the difference between partisan. You can be moderate

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Speaker 1: and temperament and still very ideologically either Conserva or modern.

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Speaker 1: So I'll give you you know.

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Speaker 2: And that's mom. Donnie, I think is such a good

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Speaker 2: example of that. People. How could he go and get

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Speaker 2: along with Trump because he's temperamentially moderate even though on

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Speaker 2: a policy perspective he's very very liberal.

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Speaker 1: So you know, one of the most conservative senators that

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Speaker 1: Florida's ever had, and arguably more conservative than the two

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Speaker 1: senators that they have at the moment, was a guy

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Speaker 1: named Connie Mack. Totally honey, Connie Mack. I used to

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Speaker 1: call him the conservative with a smile because when he

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Speaker 1: ran as a conservative, and he ran when he won

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Speaker 1: an eighty eight uh, he won, I think despite his ideology.

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Speaker 1: But it was because he was just simply a nice guy.

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Speaker 1: That's really was Connie Mack your pal? And he was

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Speaker 1: just sort of and he always was. He was he's

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Speaker 1: always it goes. Reagan is the great, you know example,

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Speaker 1: and he was Reagan, which was, hey, look, if you're

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Speaker 1: going to sell austerity, you ought to be don't better

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Speaker 1: be with a smile, don't be a dick.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. You know, it's a simple lesson, But it's

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Speaker 2: actually because I was thinking about that with Chip.

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Speaker 1: Roymembertism with George W.

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Speaker 2: Bush, and I know, like Chip Roy is kind of unlikable,

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Speaker 2: do you know what I mean? And he got pummeled

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Speaker 2: in the Attorney General's race, like it does matter. We

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Speaker 2: talk about we always talk about Tim Burchett. Tim Burchett

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Speaker 2: is like among the most conservative members of Congress, but

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Speaker 2: like Algender, const Cortez loves him because he's like a

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Speaker 2: he's like a It's exactly what you said. He's not

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Speaker 2: overly partisan, even though he's very conservative.

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Speaker 1: Another example on the right Mike Pence. Mike Pence, you know,

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Speaker 1: lived in the same neighborhood I'd lived in for a while.

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Speaker 1: Everybody loved him. I don't know if anybody would have

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Speaker 1: ever voted for him, Okay, in the neighborhood. He was

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Speaker 1: very you know, and yet he was the guy that

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Speaker 1: you know, would bring in your garbage cans if you

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Speaker 1: were if you didn't have a chance to do it

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Speaker 1: because you were late coming.

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Speaker 2: And I think people don't understand that. I think that's

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Speaker 2: such an important intall.

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Speaker 1: Errico may have this, and it may matter more to

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Speaker 1: Texans than perhaps it does folks in Illinois, or perhaps

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Speaker 1: it does. I mean, and so I I but but

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Speaker 1: there is something about temperament here that I think we're

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Speaker 1: we're you know, we're we're all trying to figure this

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Speaker 1: out in this second Trump term, which is our Democrats.

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Speaker 1: And the thing is, if you're online, if you're a

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Speaker 1: Pod Save America Democrat, you're you're on edge.

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Speaker 2: You're midas touch Democrat. You hate him and everything he does.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know, if you're sort of not, if

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Speaker 1: you're trying to tune it out and you're you're you're

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Speaker 1: more looking, you know, but you're still you know, hopefully

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Speaker 1: you're subscribing to YOU or I because you're like.

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Speaker 2: Let's you're making some attention, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: But you don't really want to be lectured all the

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Speaker 1: time in the screen and made to feel like the

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Speaker 1: sky is falling every second of the day. You're you're

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Speaker 1: looking for change, but you're looking for a change in

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Speaker 1: tone as much as a change in in in ideology.

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Speaker 1: And look again, this maybe it's one state. It's one

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Speaker 1: very big state. Yep, it's it's gigantic and.

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Speaker 2: A ton of profile and a ton of attention. I

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Speaker 2: I like the the main race is probably the clearest

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Speaker 2: example of that. The choice, I also think it's a

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Speaker 2: three way race is a little more complicated. But in

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Speaker 2: the Michigan Senate primary, you kind of have Hailey Stevens,

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Speaker 2: the member of Congress, who's very much like I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to talk about how terrible Trump is. You have

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Speaker 2: Abdul l si Ed, who's like Justice Democrat Bernie Sanders.

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Speaker 2: And then I think McMorrow probably winds up being the Mallard.

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Speaker 2: McMorrow winds up being on me, who's kind of a hybrid.

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Speaker 1: She's Goldilocks. Yeah, exactly right.

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Speaker 2: But I don't know, But I mean, there will be

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Speaker 2: more data points. And look again, if Graham Platner beats

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Speaker 2: Janet Mills by fifteen points in the main primary, you

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Speaker 2: know that, then the tall Eco thing looks like just

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Speaker 2: a data point that's contradicted by that data point, right, Like,

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Speaker 2: we don't know.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, let's talk. Let's have a little fun here.

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Speaker 1: I was. I did this sort of scenario with a

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Speaker 1: couple of people earlier, earlier today, and this is the following.

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Speaker 1: If the Democrats had been the dominant political party in

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Speaker 1: Texas for the last thirty years, and the Republicans were

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Speaker 1: the ones that have had a hard time winning general elections.

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Speaker 1: Does the Republican electorate become more mindful of quote unquote electability?

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Speaker 1: And and does the Democrat you know, and I say

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Speaker 1: this in that the fact is we've actually seen this

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Speaker 1: play out. Right, Why does a moderate Republican like Larry

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Speaker 1: Hogan successfully navigate a primary in Maryland that yes, he

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Speaker 1: had a conservative.

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Speaker 2: Murphy Cracker thing, right, You're.

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Speaker 1: Like, well, maybe this guy can win, right, And you know,

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Speaker 1: it's it's one of those that that Crockett probably wins.

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Speaker 1: If Democrats had gotten comfortable winning.

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Speaker 2: One hundred percent. I think it's it's so much of

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Speaker 2: it is expectations, right, if you've won and you control

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, we're talking about this. You know Gary Morrow, right,

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Speaker 2: is the last Democrat to win statewide in two thousand

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Speaker 2: and four.

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Speaker 1: No, nineteen eighty four, nineteen ye. I mean, that's a

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Speaker 1: long ass time you were in college or high school.

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Speaker 1: I was.

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Speaker 2: I was graduating from past that was my high school

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Speaker 2: graduation and I turned fifty a few days ago, So

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Speaker 2: that tells you how long it was like I do

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Speaker 2: think there is a a an element of like, look,

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Speaker 2: we don't have the luxury of picking the perfect. We

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Speaker 2: have to vote with our head more than our heart.

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Speaker 2: And I think that always is the case in places

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Speaker 2: where you've been down one party has been down for

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Speaker 2: an extended period of time, you are more willing to

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Speaker 2: be like, it's not my cup of tea. But like,

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Speaker 2: I've spent the last twenty five years under Democratic rule.

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Speaker 2: So maybe Charlie Baker as the governor of Massachusetts or whatever,

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Speaker 2: you know, like he's probably too moderate for me, but like,

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Speaker 2: you know, and I.

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Speaker 1: Think that that better than those liberals over there, right.

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Speaker 2: Because you know what it's like to live under if

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Speaker 2: you're a Democrat in Texas, you've spent probably most of

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Speaker 2: your adult life under almost fied Republican rule. So you

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Speaker 2: now know, like, I'm not letting the perfect get in

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Speaker 2: the way of the good here, right, And I do

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Speaker 2: think I think that's human nature to do that.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to let Texas go without picking a

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Speaker 1: few knits because you know, one of it was interesting

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Speaker 1: last night, we had some we had you know, all

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Speaker 1: of the as Missus Todd likes to say, she goes

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Speaker 1: I love the numbers guys that you guys have on

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Speaker 1: the livest Nerds. Yeah, you know, because I say that,

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Speaker 1: I say that lovingly. But if I had one, you know,

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Speaker 1: there was this well, hey, it just broke down the

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Speaker 1: exact same way that Royce West and m J. Hagar

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Speaker 1: broke down. And you're like, Okay, that's true, except you

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Speaker 1: know what both Crockett and what Crockett had that that

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Speaker 1: Royce West didn't have was money and attention and a.

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Speaker 2: Way bigger profile. Nobody except people like us even knew

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Speaker 2: who Royce West was.

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Speaker 1: So what I would the knits I'd pick here is that.

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Speaker 1: So I think I'm going to separate Jasmine Crockett political

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Speaker 1: athlete right when you have like, you know, you take

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Speaker 1: the A good example of my be a let's take

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Speaker 1: my son's favorite NBA team, the Phoenix Suns. He's very

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Speaker 1: frustrated they have one of the best players in the

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Speaker 1: NBA that that doesn't get enough enough attention. And yet

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Speaker 1: is it Booker's fault that he has a terrible infrastructure

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Speaker 1: around him, that he's got a you know, a campaign manner,

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Speaker 1: I mean, an owner that's you know, way to this

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Speaker 1: right that the big all the The point is is

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Speaker 1: that so here she was a really good political athlete

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Speaker 1: who had a terrible infrastructure round because I at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, she.

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Speaker 2: Did not run a good campaign.

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Speaker 1: She did not she did not have a statewide organization.

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Speaker 1: She was sort of she You know. The problem is

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Speaker 1: it strikes me as she was the candidate and the manager,

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Speaker 1: and you have to have versus Talla. Rico clearly had

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Speaker 1: an organization.

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Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, he is real people, Liz Smith who's

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Speaker 2: had successful well that's not just.

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Speaker 1: That, but the people. But they clearly had a ground operation.

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Speaker 1: Clearly we're thinking about real Grand Valley, right, and that's

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Speaker 1: that's how he won. This episode of the Chuck Toddcast

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Speaker 1: Bejesus out of it for publics. Right, if if Talla Rico

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Speaker 1: can essentially recreate what Veto did in the Rio Grand Valley,

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Speaker 1: because people forget this. Beto cleaned up in the Rio

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Speaker 1: Grand Valley against Cruz. His problem, frankly, I think was

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Speaker 1: he didn't do as well. And this was a critic

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Speaker 1: of him. He was almost so obsessed with the Rio

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Speaker 1: Grand Valley that he sort of didn't run up the

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Speaker 1: score in the urban areas that arguably he should have

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Speaker 1: run it right. And and you know this was you know,

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Speaker 1: this is the the if you were going to make

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Speaker 1: the case for Crockett on the ticket, it would have been, well,

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Speaker 1: she's not gonna you know, the urban areas are going

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Speaker 1: to turn out in greater numbers, you know, so then

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Speaker 1: you just send her to to the Rio Grand Valley

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Speaker 1: and see if she can, you know, fight to a

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Speaker 1: draw among Latino voters. So it is it is clear

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Speaker 1: that she didn't run a statewide campaign. No, and and

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Speaker 1: so you know, look, I think that here's what I've

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Speaker 1: I feel like her decision to concede quickly, she conceded

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Speaker 1: quicker than I fully expected, tells me she wants a

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Speaker 1: future in the party. I was just going up and

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Speaker 1: that says a lot. Look cruises up soon. And who's

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Speaker 1: to say, you know, we've seen plenty of places where

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Speaker 1: the second time you run, you maybe she'll figure out

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Speaker 1: that she needs to not always run hot, right.

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Speaker 2: She's especially a state that big, Yeah.

429
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 1: It's always in fifth gear. She won't she won't necessarily

430
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 1: have to do that the next time. You know, does

431
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: she have does she have an ability to pivot? And

432
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 1: all this stuff? And what kind of campaign? What kind

433
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,680
Speaker 1: of candidate is she? If she has an actual campaign infrastructure?

434
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 1: Right now, Look, here's stuff I don't know. I don't

435
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,639
Speaker 1: know whether she's easy to that she will listen to

436
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 1: an infrastructure. Right, we don't know those things. I don't

437
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not going to sit here and say

438
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: I know her very well, but I don't think she's erratic,

439
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 1: and I don't think she makes the same mistake twice.

440
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 2: I thought it was very First of all, one thing

441
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 2: that I just looked up, she's only forty four years old, Okay,

442
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 2: so put that, I think it is unlikely this is

443
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 2: the last you've ever heard from herlitically. Second, I when

444
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 2: I got up Wednesday morning and I saw that she

445
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 2: had conceded and endorsed tall Rico and then put on Twitter,

446
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 2: you know we're all unified, I thought, well, she's probably

447
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 2: gonna run for something like that. Is that is like

448
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 2: the Democrat First of all, it's the Democratic dream scenario, right,

449
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: Like they need like eight things to go right, Chuck,

450
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 2: to even put yourself in a position where they might win.

451
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 2: And one of those things was you could not have

452
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 2: any look of particularly with Crockett being an African American woman,

453
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,679
Speaker 2: you could not have there be a vibe of, oh,

454
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 2: I don't really love the kind of campaign tallar Rico ran.

455
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 2: And maybe a'll endorsement eventually, but it'll be right like

456
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,160
Speaker 2: she gave an unequivalental endorsement. I agree. I will say

457
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 2: I think she started too late, right, I mean, she

458
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 2: got into late for the size of the primary tall.

459
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 2: Rico had been in for a really long time, and

460
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:57,200
Speaker 2: I don't if you look at the numbers. She did

461
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 2: well where she was known. She did well on the

462
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,879
Speaker 2: Dallas media market. She did pretty well in Harris County

463
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 2: in Houston. But man, like the entire if you split

464
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 2: the state vertically, she just gets destroyed right in everything

465
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 2: in the western part of the state.

466
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 1: It just struck. It looks like a campaign that was

467
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 1: not complete, right, a campaign infrastructure that was just incomplete.

468
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 1: She was the classic building it as the plane is

469
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: taking off and.

470
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 2: A house member, right. A house members never run statewide

471
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 2: and it's not like running statewide in my home state

472
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 2: of Connecticut, where it's like you're if you're a member

473
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 2: of Congress who represent the twenty percent of the of

474
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 2: the state. You rep what are the thirty six members

475
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 2: of Congress and tech I mean you reap. Nobody knows

476
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 2: what the hell you aren't say California.

477
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 1: One more little you know, how you sort of you

478
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 1: see an event, you see something happen, and you're like, hmm,

479
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 1: there's more to this story. So the Kamala Harris last

480
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: minute in Dorset, Yes, all right, I promise you there's

481
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 1: a TikTok to do on this, right, My guess is

482
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:04,360
Speaker 1: Rocket tried to get this weeks ago, of course, and

483
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 1: I'm sure Crockett, who's part of the the Black Sorority,

484
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 1: She's a member of one of the big black those

485
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris. This is one of those sisterhood things. Right,

486
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:20,439
Speaker 1: are you going to back? And so you know, this

487
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 1: strikes me as a classic Kamala Harris risk, you know,

488
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 1: waiting too long, being indecisive. Oh am I going to

489
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: get involved? Am I not going to get involved? All right?

490
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 1: If I well, boy, it looks bad if I don't

491
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 1: back the black woman. But you know, and then when

492
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 1: does she do it? When it's too late to help,

493
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 1: so she gets all the worst parts of this, which did.

494
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 2: It after early vote was over right? I mean it

495
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 2: makes no sense.

496
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 1: It really made It was really just strategically inact and

497
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 1: it what it I'll tell you what my suspicion is

498
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 1: is that this is hand ringing inside a Kris world.

499
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: Should they get into these things, they not get into

500
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 1: these things. And then when you when you wring your hands.

501
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:07,920
Speaker 1: And this was, by the way, this is the knock

502
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,479
Speaker 1: against her goes back to our original presidential campaign that's

503
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 1: going to be for medicare for all? Is she not

504
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:16,119
Speaker 1: going to be for medicare? You know, liberal? And you know,

505
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: you know it's some Sometimes you are who you are,

506
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 1: and this is who she is, right, which is she's

507
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: never been comfortable with the political identity that other people

508
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 1: have of her, which means she is always second guess

509
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 1: her own political identity. Is she the prosecutor? Is she

510
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: the defendant? Is the social justice democrat? Is she the

511
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:42,919
Speaker 1: moderate pragmatist? Or is she the progressive disruptor? And you know,

512
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 1: even in how she handled this endorsement totally, you know,

513
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 1: to me, it was like, well, I don't you know,

514
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:54,159
Speaker 1: I don't you know, I don't understand what took so

515
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 1: long other than it's clear it came from her side,

516
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 1: because it just it made no sense. On the property side, is.

517
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 2: Getting it makes no sense because it's exactly what you said, Like,

518
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 2: let's just let's just first of all, you're exactly right.

519
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 2: This is not in a vacuum. This is consistent with

520
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 2: indecision and handwringing that has gone literally back to when

521
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 2: she first ran for president. Now I would argue before that,

522
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 2: but yeah, it's also like, let's just let's just look

523
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 2: at it like as in a sterile political decision. If

524
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 2: you're going to endorse, you do it so that you

525
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 2: get the potential upside. If you endorse two weeks ago

526
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,640
Speaker 2: and Crockett wins, you say, oh, crocket one, I did

527
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 2: that the classic Donald Trump, Why the hell would you

528
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 2: endorse where you literally there's no win scenario. If Crockett wins,

529
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 2: everyone like us is gonna be like she endorsed her

530
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 2: two days before the election. If Cricket loses, people like

531
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 2: us as we're doing it to see, what the hell

532
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 2: are you doing? Why did you endorse solely?

533
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 1: I mean maybe if Crockett had narrowly eked it out,

534
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 1: perhaps Kamala would have been seen as sort of the

535
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 1: the tipping point at the end. That's about the only

536
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 1: trying to think.

537
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 2: Sense to endorse that late in the game, because you're

538
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,120
Speaker 2: not going to get credit for it.

539
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 1: Look, it's sort of uh, in the in the fantasy

540
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 1: world where I have one hundred political reporters to assign

541
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: stories to, I probably wouldn't assign the Hey, go figure

542
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 1: out what took so long? In the Kamala Harris endorsement,

543
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 1: a jizment Crockett. So this is one of those tiktoks

544
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 1: that at some point I think, well, this is one

545
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 1: of those we'll learn this story in like six months

546
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 1: when somebody sort of as an aside, ask somebody about it,

547
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 1: and we get the full story. But there's I have

548
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: a feeling that when we find out why this took

549
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 1: so long, that it will fit the pattern of the

550
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: Harris world's indecisiveness about her own political idea, and I.

551
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 2: Think it will land ultimately as most of these things have,

552
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 2: with her back on her right, not just the team,

553
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 2: but back on her that she was like, do I

554
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 2: get involved? Do I not get involved? And there were

555
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 2: some people saying get involved, there's some people saying not

556
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 2: get involved, like in every campaign, and she just waited

557
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 2: to it. Which is fascinating, by the way, because you

558
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 2: know the other politician I always Democrat politician. I always

559
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 2: think of who the knock on him was, always he's

560
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 2: too indecisive, Joe Biden. I mean that is that was

561
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: always the knock on Biden, like he can't make any decisions.

562
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 2: It's why he didn't run for president.

563
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 1: Does make time around? It goes back to look, there

564
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 1: are plenty of politicians who don't like to make enemies

565
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 1: and they don't want to make anybody mad. And I'm

566
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 1: sure you know in that succeed look, and I want

567
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 1: to pivot to something else. You know, there are certain

568
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 1: candidates that also are are crowd pleasers in the moment

569
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: and sometimes right this is the Donald Trump, both positive

570
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 1: and negative. He tells every crowd what they want to

571
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 1: hear yep, in the moment, regardless of whether it's a

572
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 1: contradiction to something he told somebody else a mini later

573
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: to y Yeah, well, I have a feeling. Our friend

574
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom pulled one of those on Tuesday night when

575
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,479
Speaker 1: he did a book interview with the Pod Save America

576
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: Guys where he knew the audience was going to be

577
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 1: super lefty. He knew where the Pod Save America guys

578
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 1: are and particularly in foreign policy and particularly when it

579
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 1: comes to bb net Yahoo and he and he ended

580
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 1: up give it, telling them what they wanted to hear,

581
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 1: using using phrases He's going to come to regret, like

582
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: accusing Israel of being an apartheid nation, and it is

583
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: it is, you know, it is when you use the

584
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 1: language that is being used to target Jews. Left and right,

585
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 1: and you're you're sort of giving aid and comfort with

586
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: that ar you know, but it was you know, this

587
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 1: is this is always something I've always worried about with Gavin,

588
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 1: is that he's always I mean, the irony is his

589
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 1: book is still who he is. He's in a hurry.

590
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: He's in a hurry to cement his status as the

591
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 1: as the as the candidate for the angry Democratic base. Okay,

592
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 1: but you know, I think that that has a low ceiling.

593
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 1: And I you know, I don't think it's a I

594
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 1: put it this way. I think he made a lot.

595
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 1: He reminded a lot of people of why there's so

596
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: much skepticism his ability to be a national candidate when

597
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 1: he went to me, when he went when he went

598
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 1: as it just felt like he was pandering to the crowd.

599
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 1: It didn't feel like a genuine flip.

600
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 2: Well, and you know we I think we did it.

601
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 1: And I'll respect the flip. I'll respect the genuine flip.

602
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: But here's what I would say, And I'm just look,

603
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 1: I'm I'm are you is it a when you criticize

604
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: the Trump administration? Is it America that does these things?

605
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 1: Or is it the Trump administration? And this would be

606
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: the you know, I would ask Gavin news From that,

607
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 1: you know, do you you know if somebody says, you know,

608
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 1: America is now you know a bunch of thugs that

609
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 1: that do this or that, or you know, you're you're

610
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 1: going to attribute it to everybody that lives in the country.

611
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: Do you do that in the United States? Why do

612
00:31:58,120 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 1: we do that with Israel all the time?

613
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 2: I I we talked at the end of twenty twenty

614
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 2: five about who we thought had good years and bad years,

615
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 2: and we both agreed that Gavin Newsom then had really

616
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 2: a remarkable twenty twenty us right, he went from like

617
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 2: to wow, okay, like either he or Kamala Harris is

618
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 2: the front runner. But I always remind people that, remember

619
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 2: how Gavin Newsom started twenty twenty five. He started a

620
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 2: podcast that was expressly aimed at interviewing people with whom

621
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 2: he disagreed. So he had Steve Bannon on, he had

622
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:38,239
Speaker 2: the late Charlie Charlie kirk On, and that clearly was

623
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 2: a you know what, the Democratic Party is talking to

624
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 2: themselves too much. We need to talk more.

625
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden, Gavin realized way aloud

626
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: from the loud influencer left by the way, if I.

627
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 2: Troll Donald Trump on Twitter, I and like, my point

628
00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 2: is is, like, don't Gavin Newsome is a politician. I

629
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 2: mean that in good ways and bad ways and the

630
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 2: bad way. He didn't decide, you know what the world needs,

631
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 2: they need me speaking out against Donald Trump. His first

632
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 2: inclination was after the twenty twenty four election, we need

633
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 2: to broaden the party out and I'm gonna talk to

634
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: people who with whom I disagree. That didn't go over

635
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 2: very well. And what started to go over well was

636
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,479
Speaker 2: I'm gonna just troll Trump. I'm gonna give Trump his

637
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 2: own medicine. And that propelled him. But let's not pretend

638
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 2: that that was like the first instinct that Kevin Newsom

639
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 2: had when he saw what had happened in twenty twenty four.

640
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 2: So I do think the danger for all of these

641
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 2: people at a national level. I know you know this

642
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 2: better than me, is it is hard not to tell

643
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 2: people what they want to hear. You are probably a

644
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 2: people pleaser. It's why you do this job right, really

645
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 2: really hard. But the truth is, when you have this

646
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 2: level of scrutiny when you're running for president, which he

647
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 2: is you gotta be real careful.

648
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 1: You know. Look, and we talk about the A word authenticity,

649
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 1: and you know it's sometimes overused and it's over over

650
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 1: you know, can be sort of over analyzed. But I

651
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 1: look at it. You know, it's sort of like Gavin Newsom.

652
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: You know, it's like you have a your your, you

653
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,839
Speaker 1: have your you have a stick shift, and you're trying

654
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 1: to let me try first gear, let me try say,

655
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:21,879
Speaker 1: let me, let me try all these different let's see

656
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 1: what where I can get traction right. And it literally

657
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 1: was him searching for traction versus be who you are

658
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 1: and see if the moment meets you, that's it, right,

659
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: Like there's always two you know, it's like are you

660
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: you know, are you create? Are you trying to fit

661
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 1: the moment? Or are you already there and the moment

662
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 1: comes to you? Right?

663
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 2: You know?

664
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 1: Like Donald Trump, it turns out he didn't. Everybody's like, oh,

665
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 1: he figured No. Donald Trump has been the same erratic

666
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,800
Speaker 1: crank about all of American governance for the last thirty

667
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 1: five forty.

668
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 2: Years and he's had a victim complex his entire adult life.

669
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,320
Speaker 2: It's just it worked in that moment.

670
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 1: It bit the moment, the Republican Party came to him

671
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: in many ways, right, table is his anger hit. He

672
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 1: was already a short attention span guy, a a squirrel brain,

673
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 1: meaning social media, which basically rewards squirrel brain. Right, Oh,

674
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 1: oh totally, that's you know, so it is in some

675
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 1: ways and in you know why is why is Trump

676
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 1: then defended? Well, he is who he is, and he's

677
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 1: always been this person, and there's a lot of truth

678
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 1: to that. Right, he may be consistently erratic on a

679
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:38,359
Speaker 1: day to day way, but in some ways he's he's

680
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:46,319
Speaker 1: he's consistently inconsistent, authentically Inauthentic's there's a there's always been

681
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 1: an odd through line to him.

682
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 2: Absolutely, you and I I think agree. I'm not an economist.

683
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 2: I'm not going to although most economists say tarifts are

684
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 2: bad policy, but they're they're terrible politics. I mean, we

685
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 2: feel I feel very comfortable saying that. But like you

686
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 2: can go back to interviews in the nineteen eighties where

687
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:07,319
Speaker 2: like a young businessman, Donald Trump is talking about how

688
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 2: you know, I think at that point he was talking

689
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 2: about Japan, but Japan is screwing us munch. So like

690
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 2: there are he is authentic. It's the same reason why

691
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 2: I always say those people. It's a great tribute question

692
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,760
Speaker 2: who who is in most polling, the most popular politician

693
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,439
Speaker 2: in the country, active politician in office.

694
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:27,840
Speaker 1: Is Bernie Sanders.

695
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 2: Because people agree with him. If you go you can

696
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:32,839
Speaker 2: go back when he was the mayor of Burlington and

697
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 2: you're like, oh shit, he's saying the same stuffy saying.

698
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 1: Now, Actually, our friends at c SPAN, our buddy Howard Mormon,

699
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 1: could put I think put together this this montage of

700
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: clips of Bernie when he was a House member. I

701
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: mean that when he was sort of the the gadfly

702
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 1: socialist of the House, and and you know before he

703
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 1: was a senator and people actually took him more seriously.

704
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 1: He was saying the same thing. I don't think he

705
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:59,280
Speaker 1: said billionaires came to him. We didn't have that party.

706
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 1: And he seen his quote unquote authentic because he he's

707
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: not met the moment. The moment came to him, right, And.

708
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,439
Speaker 2: Who reminds me of that too? On a smaller level,

709
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 2: Not to go too down far a rabbit hole, but

710
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 2: remember when Ron Paul. Ron Paul ran for president a

711
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:16,799
Speaker 2: number of times, but the time that he ran where

712
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:21,280
Speaker 2: he was like marginally credible, it was because Ron Paul's

713
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 2: views never changed. It's just that the there became a

714
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 2: bigger streak of people interested in like, yeah, maybe the

715
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 2: fat is bad. They were libertarianism is the right way

716
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 2: to go. Like, it's not like Ron Paul changed.

717
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: Ron Paul twenty oh two was a weirdo. And in fact,

718
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 1: Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders were literally Statler and Waldorf

719
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,320
Speaker 1: for the House. Totally. They were regularly.

720
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,399
Speaker 2: James traffiican't la where you're like eeah, that guy gets

721
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 2: up and says some stuff, and like they were.

722
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,919
Speaker 1: And the iriny is that they regularly voted the same

723
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 1: on some foreign policy stuff. Right, they were totally much

724
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 1: Paul was an old fashioned isolationist. Paul looked like a

725
00:37:56,400 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 1: total extremist during the Bush era and then and by

726
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 1: it was twenty twelve, right, he ran in Oway, but

727
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: it was twenty twelve where he started. You saw it, yea,

728
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 1: And in fact he technically finished second to Romney.

729
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 2: I mean, if you went to any event, and I

730
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:11,879
Speaker 2: remember he.

731
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 1: Won, he won a lot of delegate conventions.

732
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 2: If you were at any cattle call, any kind of

733
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 2: thing there was like you would be like, well, now

734
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 2: it wound up being there were a lot of deeply

735
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 2: committed people, but not enough of them. But the point

736
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 2: is Ron Paul went from loon to.

737
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:33,800
Speaker 1: He's the godfather of the anti interventionist wing of the

738
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: the Trump coalition.

739
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 2: Yep.

740
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 1: And you know by the way, I you know I did.

741
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 1: I saw that you promoted my quote unquote hot take

742
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 1: right about Vans that this is I think. And you know,

743
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 1: as much as I'm always hesitant to be the to

744
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 1: be a hot taker on this one, I feel like

745
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 1: I don't. There's no way you believe it.

746
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 2: My view is it's not a hot believe it. You're

747
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 2: not saying you want to get attention. You're saying it

748
00:38:58,480 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 2: because you believe it.

749
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 1: Right, I'm like, I don't see.

750
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 2: We don't have an I'm good at right ideas, but.

751
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 1: I don't see others as recoverable for him long term.

752
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 1: That doesn't mean he won't be the Republican nominee, because

753
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 1: he will be president.

754
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 2: Willfully misunderstood the quote bash for that.

755
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, it's not that we're saying.

756
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 2: You're saying, I just think a general.

757
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 1: Well, he just lost the most interesting part of his

758
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: political identity. And and once you lose something that was

759
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,320
Speaker 1: uniquely yours. And when you're vice president, you lose a

760
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 1: lot of your own political identity and you lose something

761
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 1: that was uniquely yours, right that that sort of gave

762
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 1: him right his entrance into this. Right, he's the Iraq

763
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:43,919
Speaker 1: War veteran that was like, wait a minute, we can't

764
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,399
Speaker 1: keep doing this. We're sending the same people. They all

765
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 1: are people that lived in the areas of rural Ohio

766
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 1: that I grew up in. Right, That's who we're sending

767
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 1: on these wars. We're not sending the sons and daughters

768
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 1: of Donald J. Trump, you know, and the rich people.

769
00:39:56,480 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 1: And he's now lost that identity. It does doesn't mean

770
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 1: it ends his career. It just means I don't think

771
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 1: he's ever going to get elected president of the United

772
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 1: States now, because it's sort of a core part. When

773
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 1: you lose a core part of your identity, I don't

774
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 1: know how you recover.

775
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:11,399
Speaker 2: It's hard to get it back.

776
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 1: It's hard to get it's almost it's impossible to get.

777
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 2: And look, yes, being very tightly affiliated with Donald Trump

778
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 2: in a Republican primary in twenty twenty eight is probably

779
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 2: I still think net net a very good thing. Being

780
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 2: associated with Donald Trump in that legacy unless that legacy changes, right.

781
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:30,720
Speaker 2: I mean, we're talking about a president who's in the

782
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 2: upper thirties low forties in approval general electorate. The gap

783
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 2: between what Republicans like and what independence and Democrats like

784
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:42,279
Speaker 2: is getting an Independence are very much moving over to

785
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 2: democratic views right now.

786
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 1: Well, what's interesting, And you know it's funny yesterday, yesterday

787
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 1: or earlier this week, I was, you know, I've been

788
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 1: so consumed by the primaries that I sort of didn't

789
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:57,240
Speaker 1: I wasn't hour to hour paying attention to the Iran

790
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 1: or spinning that was taking place by the administration. And

791
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,240
Speaker 1: then you sort of step back the next day and absorb,

792
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 1: you know, first of all, what an utter mess. And

793
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 1: when you actually put together what happened in Texas on

794
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 1: Tuesday night, with the absolute erratic nature of trying to

795
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 1: essentially create a rationale for why you did this, and

796
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:26,919
Speaker 1: your rationale keeps changing, this has been a disaster week

797
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 1: for the Republicans that are on the ballot in twenty

798
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 1: twenty six. It is very difficult to defend what's going

799
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: on right now.

800
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:39,280
Speaker 2: It's the problem is it's like I don't think Iran

801
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:45,919
Speaker 2: decides the selection, but Every day Donald Trump is talking

802
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 2: about Iran or Ecuador or Ukraine in Russia is a

803
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 2: day he is not Remember the affordability tour that he

804
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 2: was going to go on that Susie Wilds touted.

805
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 1: I'm telling you, it's like Infrastructure week, I mean the

806
00:41:57,520 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 1: infrastructure week of the second term.

807
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 2: It's like it's it's March, you know, Like it's like

808
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 2: that's two months that have been totally pissed away. Not

809
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 2: only people start making their people's minds start getting They

810
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 2: don't make their mind up on the day before the election, right,

811
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 2: the parameters get set months before.

812
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:23,520
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857
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Speaker 1: in coverage, and some policies start as low as two

858
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 1: dollars a day that would be billed monthly. As of

859
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 1: March twenty twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number

860
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 1: one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect

861
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free

862
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:07,320
Speaker 1: quoted Ethos dot com slash chuck. So again that's Ethos

863
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:12,000
Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. Application times may vary and the

864
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 1: rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me, life

865
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 1: insurance is something you should really think about it, especially

866
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 1: if you've got a growing family. You know, we've seen

867
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:28,279
Speaker 1: all these studies that indicate this. What the perception of

868
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:32,840
Speaker 1: what the public believes the economy is like in June

869
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 1: Memorial Day is how they'll vote at the ballot box, right,

870
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: even if things start to well, it's not that far

871
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:44,720
Speaker 1: And b his what he's done right now is actually

872
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,720
Speaker 1: screwed up the economy. Stock markets you know, been tanking.

873
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 1: You know, I go back, Pam BONDI a couple of

874
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 1: weeks ago. Why aren't we talking about Dow fifty thousand? Hey,

875
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,840
Speaker 1: guess what now? Hasn't been in fifty thousand since you

876
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 1: opened your mouth, miss Attorney General. It's been sitting and

877
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:03,560
Speaker 1: it's now below forty nine. So do you want to

878
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:04,200
Speaker 1: talk about that?

879
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, or do you want to talk

880
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 2: you about the Upstate is previously your latching your the

881
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 2: economy is good. Argument that Donald Trump has done to

882
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:16,799
Speaker 2: the stock market is literally political malpractice. I mean, it's

883
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:18,000
Speaker 2: just so dumb.

884
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 1: Because you can't control it well, and this sort of

885
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:23,879
Speaker 1: pivots and it's sort of like, you know, I want

886
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 1: to I want to read you this anonymous quote that

887
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:30,760
Speaker 1: was in Playbook, because this is the what actual elected

888
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:35,799
Speaker 1: Republicans are hearing from their advisors. And this is characterized

889
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 1: as a person close to the White House telling Politico,

890
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 1: I have no problem blowing up the Iranians, but when

891
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 1: you're at war, that is seventy five percent of your time.

892
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:45,799
Speaker 1: This is what Susie Wallace is going to be doing.

893
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:48,320
Speaker 1: This is what James Blair, the White House political director,

894
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 1: will be doing. This is what senior staff will be

895
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:52,800
Speaker 1: dealing with. And that is a problem. He goes, it

896
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 1: needs to get over quick. Otherwise this is an effing nightmare.

897
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:58,319
Speaker 1: It already is a nightmare because you've got the Mega

898
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 1: Coalition just tearing at the seams. Anything in a game

899
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 1: of subtraction right now is effing disastrous. Anything that we

900
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 1: do that hurts our own base is catastrophic. They need

901
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 1: to explain to the American people and they need, frankly,

902
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 1: to do it pretty quickly and specifically to the Republican base. Yeah,

903
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 1: and it's already they're all over the place. Was it

904
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 1: the Saudis that talked it's into it? Was it the Israel?

905
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 2: Did MBS convince Donald Trump do it? Did we do

906
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 2: do as Israel was going in any way?

907
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 1: Or And then this idea that we didn't have a

908
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 1: plan to evacuate Americans from the region because it was

909
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 1: too quick, Well, there's also reporting that indicates that they

910
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:38,080
Speaker 1: delayed this a week because of weather. They were actually

911
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:42,160
Speaker 1: going to do this the weekend before the State of

912
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:45,880
Speaker 1: the Year, before State of the Union, and it literally

913
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:50,240
Speaker 1: weather was the only reason they decided to tap the brakes.

914
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 1: So meaning you were preparing, you were preparing long enough

915
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 1: to send two big time aircraft carriers to the region.

916
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:00,440
Speaker 1: You don't think about a plan to evacuate a Americans

917
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 1: out of the Middle East. And now you're basically like

918
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:06,800
Speaker 1: tough luck. You've got John Rahm, a golfer, having to

919
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:09,040
Speaker 1: send his own plane to do buy me b Look,

920
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 1: he's nobody's crying for him. They got money to do

921
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 1: private plane stuff. God bless him. But the United States

922
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:18,759
Speaker 1: government isn't going to look out for its own US

923
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 1: citizens in the region. And the dismissiveness of Trump on

924
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 1: this is you know, uh, these are these are his own,

925
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 1: these are his own voters.

926
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 2: And what what was the biggest foreign policy critique that

927
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:36,439
Speaker 2: Trump latched onto in the twenty twenty four campaign. Joe

928
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:39,880
Speaker 2: Biden mishandled the ending of Afghanistan. People were left there

929
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 2: who shouldn't have been left, Like, it's all I mean,

930
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 2: it's it's it's almost two on the nose.

931
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:49,240
Speaker 1: If atocracy or a currency, Trump would even be wealthier

932
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:49,640
Speaker 1: than he is.

933
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean it's yeah, I mean, and that's nothing

934
00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:56,399
Speaker 2: that we're not even getting into the like Tulci Gabbard said,

935
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:58,839
Speaker 2: we can't go to war with Iraq. JD. Van said

936
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 2: there shouldn't be a war with the with Aron Rather. J. D.

937
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 2: Vance said the same, you know what I mean, Like, oh,

938
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 2: Donald Trump said we got to end forever wars. It's

939
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:10,360
Speaker 2: like and and and even Chuck, is it.

940
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 1: A war or not?

941
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:14,760
Speaker 2: They can't even agree within themselves on Mark.

942
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:19,080
Speaker 1: The Mark Wayne Mullin, I mean, it was you know

943
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:20,919
Speaker 1: what you needed, you know when they did that. There's

944
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 1: this Mark Wade Mullin like back and forth, you just

945
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 1: called it a war. Well it's you know, you know

946
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 1: that used to be the way Veep would end. And

947
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:31,479
Speaker 1: you just sort of play the music, right.

948
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 2: Cloe is closer to a documentary than people realize.

949
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 1: Just play the beat music out of that, Mark Wade Mullein,

950
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 1: play the cub music, you know, or what of the

951
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 1: one of the two, and you just walk away. You're like,

952
00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 1: are you kidding me?

953
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:46,839
Speaker 2: You know, it doesn't make any sense.

954
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 1: It just doesn't. It just doesn't.

955
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:50,439
Speaker 2: I mean, there's no way to make it make sense.

956
00:49:51,960 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 1: Well, now we've got a let's let's large large picture here. Yeah,

957
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:03,360
Speaker 1: how in play is the Senate?

958
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 2: So I looked, I looked kind of mid week at

959
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 2: the prediction markets, which we can debate forever, and I

960
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 2: know we've talked about like how accurate is that?

961
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 1: Well, the production markets look really accurate when it came

962
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 1: to their confidence in tall Rico and look really stupid

963
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,600
Speaker 1: in their confidence and backstent exactly. So it's like, you know, right,

964
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 1: there's no difference exactly.

965
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 2: They're in the low forties for Democrats. Chances of taking

966
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 2: the scent.

967
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 1: That's all. That's a right ish, that's a six point hike.

968
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:37,320
Speaker 1: By the way, since the end of twenty five. Remember

969
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:40,560
Speaker 1: it's gone up. It was one in three, rightly, And

970
00:50:40,640 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 1: I remember at the time I had said at that price, uh,

971
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:48,280
Speaker 1: it's a goodbye, because I think that that the perception

972
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 1: of Democrats chances in the Senate. And that's the interesting

973
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 1: you know, that to me is what I will concede.

974
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 1: What makes the prediction markets interesting to me is the

975
00:50:57,560 --> 00:51:00,879
Speaker 1: ability to cash a ticket before the result happens. Where

976
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:03,200
Speaker 1: it is now how she.

977
00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 2: On Calshi and this will this obviously can move. But

978
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:11,280
Speaker 2: it's fifty five percent chance Republicans control the Senate. Forty

979
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 2: five percent chance the Senate. Now that's that actual might

980
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:19,360
Speaker 2: be a little artificial high off of tall Rico winning

981
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:23,200
Speaker 2: and they're being a runoff and on the Republican side market,

982
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:29,319
Speaker 2: these markets are very susceptible the random news occurrence, right,

983
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 2: But what but it tells you where, It tells you

984
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:35,840
Speaker 2: where people's minds are, and.

985
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 1: They're starting to pay more attention to Alaska and Iowa.

986
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:40,840
Speaker 2: All if you have to win, if you have to

987
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 2: net at a minimum three, if Murkowski maybe in the

988
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,040
Speaker 2: chuck tout theory, switches parties. But let's just let's put

989
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:48,359
Speaker 2: that out of mind, and let's say it's for if

990
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 2: you have to net for what you cannot do. We've

991
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 2: learned this election after election you cannot only have four

992
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 2: Republican seats where you have any chance. It's just you

993
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:00,320
Speaker 2: have no margin, right, And I think what they've done is,

994
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 2: I think you have to feel really good if you're

995
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 2: a Democrat about.

996
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:04,280
Speaker 1: Roy Cooper in North Carolina.

997
00:52:05,200 --> 00:52:07,440
Speaker 2: Let's see about the primary in Maine. But it's you know,

998
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:09,360
Speaker 2: it's a state Kamala Harrison one, it's going to be

999
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 2: a Democratic year. I never count Susan Colin top. But

1000
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 2: you got to feel good there, you know. And then

1001
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:20,760
Speaker 2: it gets down to the kind of like Okay, Alaska, Iowa, Texas.

1002
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:25,800
Speaker 1: What about Nebraska. I mean, you know, it's a tie

1003
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 1: tide race right now.

1004
00:52:29,480 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 2: The point is is the fact that we can throw

1005
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 2: those out there suggests to me that they have enough

1006
00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:40,239
Speaker 2: pieces on the playing field where it doesn't have to

1007
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:44,239
Speaker 2: be either we pull a royal flush or nothing, right,

1008
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 2: so like there are different paths to get there.

1009
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 1: I also I made the case of my podcast on

1010
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 1: Wednesday that this is actually not that expensive of a

1011
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:56,120
Speaker 1: cycle when you look at the seats that the Democrats

1012
00:52:56,160 --> 00:53:00,080
Speaker 1: have to defend. You're looking at Georgia and Michigan. In

1013
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 1: I would argue Minnesota, in New Hampshire lately, my soft

1014
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:03,400
Speaker 1: will raise.

1015
00:53:03,280 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 2: So much on his own r that you probably aren't

1016
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 2: going to have to handle that.

1017
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 1: You know, they don't have a New York or California

1018
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 1: that they're spending, or Pennsylvania or in Illinois even or

1019
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 1: even Illinois right Republicans aren't putting that in play, so

1020
00:53:13,120 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 1: they don't have expensive races in the biggest states. So

1021
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 1: the question is how and this gets it to do

1022
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 1: you if you're Chuck Schumer, you're JB. Persh, do you

1023
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 1: play in Texas in the run.

1024
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 2: How much do you believe in Texas? That's it?

1025
00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:33,320
Speaker 1: Do you really do you work hard to help Paxton

1026
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: win that runoff? Do you? And how do you do it?

1027
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 1: Do you do the positive ad that thanks John Cornyn

1028
00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 1: for being a gun control advocate? You know, do you

1029
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:45,400
Speaker 1: do that kind of starkiness or do you do it

1030
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:47,960
Speaker 1: the other way of ken Paxton is.

1031
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:53,080
Speaker 2: Too close to conservative for Texas sponsored by the Democratic Party,

1032
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:55,080
Speaker 2: he's too right or he's too.

1033
00:53:54,960 --> 00:54:01,200
Speaker 1: Pro Trump right the way totally. If they're serious about

1034
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 1: winning the Senate. We see stuff like that, and you

1035
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:06,480
Speaker 1: so you could pay probably and I don't, and I

1036
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 1: wonder if they'll do it. I'll be curious.

1037
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 2: That's also a cheaper day. I think if you meddle

1038
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:18,879
Speaker 2: in that runoff, then if like you feel like you've

1039
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 2: got to go in for twenty five million to make

1040
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:24,320
Speaker 2: any impact in a general right, like you could probably

1041
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:29,279
Speaker 2: for ten million ish make make a dent potentially in

1042
00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:32,840
Speaker 2: the runoff pro Paxton. It's a little bit dangerous. But

1043
00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:34,719
Speaker 2: at the same time, I think the only people who

1044
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:36,719
Speaker 2: are like I can't believe filling the blank party is

1045
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 2: meddling with other fill in the blank party are like

1046
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:42,400
Speaker 2: media types. I don't think the average person gives a

1047
00:54:42,480 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 2: crap No, Like I just don't think they care. It's

1048
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:47,719
Speaker 2: like people who bang the drum on campaign finance. For me, yes,

1049
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 2: big money is less is more powerful now and less

1050
00:54:52,239 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 2: transparent than ever before. You know how many voters care

1051
00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:55,920
Speaker 2: about it? Almost no?

1052
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:59,320
Speaker 1: No, And look it should be it should be a

1053
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 1: bothers voter. But you know, good luck we well we

1054
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 1: were just we mentioned in passing race. We can talk

1055
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:04,440
Speaker 1: more about it.

1056
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 2: But the Illinois racement is just gross. It's great, it's gross,

1057
00:55:08,440 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 2: but like again, these people, people don't see it. It

1058
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:13,240
Speaker 2: gets disclosed late in all these super packs and stuff.

1059
00:55:13,239 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, the Committee to Protect Goodness and Light. Well,

1060
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:19,040
Speaker 2: that seems like a good group, but what's wrong, Like

1061
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:20,759
Speaker 2: it's you know, people don't see it and they don't

1062
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:23,040
Speaker 2: engage at the level we're at the point is is

1063
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 2: like I think, you the minor hit you might take

1064
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:30,800
Speaker 2: for meddling, it probably is well worth the potential upside

1065
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:33,000
Speaker 2: because if Cornin is the nominee, Tallery.

1066
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 1: By the way meddling works, okay, And do we have.

1067
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:40,719
Speaker 2: Any doubt, Like I think Tallarico loses to corn in

1068
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:42,279
Speaker 2: fifty four to forty six.

1069
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:46,480
Speaker 1: I would, I would probably say it's more like Cruise Meadow.

1070
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 1: But I agree, I think it's two to three points.

1071
00:55:48,719 --> 00:55:50,760
Speaker 1: Like I okay, but but it's very.

1072
00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:54,920
Speaker 2: Hard to see go beating Cornyn, even in a really.

1073
00:55:54,719 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 1: Good democratic I think corn gets forty seven of corn It.

1074
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:01,120
Speaker 1: I think Tallarico gets forty. I think his Florida's going

1075
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:02,920
Speaker 1: to be forty seven forty eight. I think it's Flora's

1076
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:04,960
Speaker 1: beadows Florida where is against Paxton.

1077
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:08,359
Speaker 2: I think if you ran the race one hundred times.

1078
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:10,879
Speaker 2: I think Paxson would win it more times in tall Rico.

1079
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:13,399
Speaker 2: But it's not a lot more times than tall Rico,

1080
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:15,440
Speaker 2: do you know what I mean? Like it's and so

1081
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:18,279
Speaker 2: it's like do you do you place a bet there?

1082
00:56:19,400 --> 00:56:22,279
Speaker 2: And and like you said, Texas ain't cheap, So it's

1083
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 2: it's you know, how do you feel? I'm fascinated by

1084
00:56:26,680 --> 00:56:28,480
Speaker 2: the rankings of Like I think we would all agree

1085
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:31,799
Speaker 2: North Carolina and Maine are clearly Democrats' best chances, right,

1086
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:36,480
Speaker 2: But it's like stuff, Then how do we sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas,

1087
00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:39,799
Speaker 2: and Iowa? Like, how do you That's I think.

1088
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:41,880
Speaker 1: I look and we had a couple of guests make

1089
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:44,759
Speaker 1: this case last night. I I think I agree that

1090
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 1: Alaska is the next best place because you have somebody

1091
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:50,000
Speaker 1: that actually won state wide. She's one state wide, right,

1092
00:56:50,520 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 1: And yes, I know Sharon Brown has and yes, the

1093
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:54,880
Speaker 1: last time he won was in a midterm year. That

1094
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 1: is true. You know, I do think, you know, I

1095
00:56:58,480 --> 00:56:59,839
Speaker 1: don't know if he fits the moment.

1096
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:04,600
Speaker 2: I think that he's had a lot of electric offices.

1097
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:07,360
Speaker 1: There is he's he's got a high floor, low ceiling.

1098
00:57:07,480 --> 00:57:11,279
Speaker 1: I think we know this about share, And it may

1099
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:13,320
Speaker 1: be that you could spend fifty million dollars on that

1100
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:15,400
Speaker 1: race and he'll get forty eight percent, And you can

1101
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:17,560
Speaker 1: correct five million dollars in that race and he'll get

1102
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:18,440
Speaker 1: forty eight percent.

1103
00:57:18,600 --> 00:57:20,840
Speaker 2: Now a half percent, right exactly.

1104
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 1: There's there's an argument to be made that money isn't

1105
00:57:23,400 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 1: going to be what decides as relative. It really is

1106
00:57:27,080 --> 00:57:30,880
Speaker 1: about Republican turnout, you know. And is there a depression

1107
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 1: a little bit? And do Independence come in in greater number?

1108
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 1: Do you get a supercharge of Democratic voters to show

1109
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:41,720
Speaker 1: up and Independence break sixty forty rather than say fifty

1110
00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:42,680
Speaker 1: three forty seven?

1111
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:46,120
Speaker 2: Totally, you know, And I don't know if the intrigued

1112
00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 2: by Iowa, if Josh Turik is the nominee, we had somebody.

1113
00:57:50,560 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 1: I think his story is interesting that totally wrote off

1114
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 1: Iowa because Jody Ernst wasn't. And I'm just sitting there going, yeah,

1115
00:57:57,680 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 1: you've never with all respect you know, if you if

1116
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:06,040
Speaker 1: you've not seen Jonie Ernstein, the trail's no good like

1117
00:58:06,480 --> 00:58:07,800
Speaker 1: a really good campaigner.

1118
00:58:07,920 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 2: So and like Ashley is a good nominee, She's going

1119
00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 2: to raise money, but like she never runs statewide before.

1120
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 1: And again.

1121
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:20,360
Speaker 2: The wind in the face of Republicans and it's like

1122
00:58:21,160 --> 00:58:24,360
Speaker 2: turk to me. You know again. Paralympian he won two

1123
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 2: gold medals as a Paralympian basketball player. The guy's got

1124
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:29,680
Speaker 2: an amazing story. He's I think if he's the nominee,

1125
00:58:30,080 --> 00:58:32,680
Speaker 2: be really hard to attack. That's not easy to attack

1126
00:58:33,560 --> 00:58:36,840
Speaker 2: like and may have it. He represents a district that

1127
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 2: Trump won, like, there's there's some there there. I'm kind

1128
00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:41,120
Speaker 2: of keeping that.

1129
00:58:41,160 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 1: One on hold, so let me try to land this plane.

1130
00:58:44,480 --> 00:58:46,520
Speaker 1: I did a substack this week about sort of kicking

1131
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:49,240
Speaker 1: off the midterms and through the prism of twenty eight,

1132
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 1: meaning yep, look, we're not going, We're not going. Twenty

1133
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:56,040
Speaker 1: six is going to offer us clues about how twenty

1134
00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 1: eight may play out, right. Clue Number one was a

1135
00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 1: topic we've already discussed. The Democrats want a fighter? Are

1136
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:06,960
Speaker 1: they looking for, in the words of my acquaintance, no

1137
00:59:07,080 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 1: more bomb throwers?

1138
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:08,640
Speaker 2: Right?

1139
00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:11,800
Speaker 1: You know, what's the what's the what's the attitude in Texas?

1140
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:14,760
Speaker 1: The clearly the attitude is please no bomb throwers. Give

1141
00:59:14,840 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 1: us somebody that can win. Let's see if that translates

1142
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 1: throughout the primary season. Number two is sort of the

1143
00:59:21,320 --> 00:59:23,440
Speaker 1: impact of Trump, Right, is Trump and that positive and

1144
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:26,360
Speaker 1: that negative? How badly do you still need them? Obviously

1145
00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear Trump is still the most animating force.

1146
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 1: This is not a party that is yet thinking about

1147
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:35,680
Speaker 1: the swing voter in the middle. And you know, is

1148
00:59:35,720 --> 00:59:38,200
Speaker 1: the White House focused on this? No, they don't appear

1149
00:59:38,240 --> 00:59:41,200
Speaker 1: to be. And you know that's a whole separate ball game. Right.

1150
00:59:41,440 --> 00:59:44,760
Speaker 1: If Trump takes the blame for a double whamming loss

1151
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 1: in the midterms, meaning House and Senate, how does that

1152
00:59:48,120 --> 00:59:51,680
Speaker 1: impact twenty eight Right, that's we'll figure out. But the

1153
00:59:51,760 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 1: third item here is the last item that we haven't

1154
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:59,080
Speaker 1: talked about. And we got a new candidate officially announced

1155
00:59:59,080 --> 01:00:02,560
Speaker 1: in Montana. Yep, the former president of University of Montana,

1156
01:00:02,560 --> 01:00:05,800
Speaker 1: who's running as an independent, announced by trashing both the

1157
01:00:05,880 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 1: d's and the R saying both parties have let you down.

1158
01:00:08,600 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 1: John Tester, the former Democratic senator, has already endorsed him.

1159
01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 1: There is a Democratic candidate and instead testers endorsing the independent.

1160
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:22,440
Speaker 1: I'm looking at all of these these independent testers out here,

1161
01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:26,800
Speaker 1: whether it's Duggan and Michigan, Osborne and Nebraska Bodner. Now

1162
01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:31,480
Speaker 1: in Montana, South Dakota's got Dakota, Kansas looks like they're

1163
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:32,160
Speaker 1: going to get one.

1164
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:32,600
Speaker 2: Yep.

1165
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:35,440
Speaker 1: Coming close is an interesting to me.

1166
01:00:36,360 --> 01:00:39,520
Speaker 2: You know, that's why we like this. Someone wins and

1167
01:00:39,560 --> 01:00:40,200
Speaker 2: someone loses.

1168
01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:44,280
Speaker 1: That's right. If if an independent breaks through, if one

1169
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:48,640
Speaker 1: breaks through in any of those states, I think that's

1170
01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:51,680
Speaker 1: a big deal. Small deal, medium deal.

1171
01:00:51,960 --> 01:00:55,080
Speaker 2: I think big deal. I talked to Mike Dougan, former

1172
01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:57,480
Speaker 2: Detroit mayor running for governories. You know, I think he's

1173
01:00:57,600 --> 01:01:00,160
Speaker 2: in the mix. I don't think he's ahead, but I

1174
01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:02,680
Speaker 2: think he's in the mix. And his point was a

1175
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:05,320
Speaker 2: point that you and I have talked about for decades,

1176
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:10,640
Speaker 2: which is people need proof of concept. People won't buy

1177
01:01:10,800 --> 01:01:14,000
Speaker 2: that an independent can win a real statewide race and

1178
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:18,320
Speaker 2: really matter until an independent it's a real states like

1179
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:20,040
Speaker 2: we yes, we had when I was growing up, we

1180
01:01:20,080 --> 01:01:23,360
Speaker 2: had Lol Wiker in Connecticut. Angus King was elected as

1181
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:26,040
Speaker 2: a governor as an independent, right. I mean, it happens,

1182
01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:29,680
Speaker 2: but it usually happens in smaller states. And it's like

1183
01:01:30,120 --> 01:01:34,440
Speaker 2: if Michigan elects an independent, a guy who's expressly running

1184
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 2: like I was a Democrat, I'm you know, I think

1185
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 2: both parties have failed us. I want to solve problems

1186
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:41,600
Speaker 2: it's a little bit an easy argument to make it

1187
01:01:41,680 --> 01:01:45,360
Speaker 2: for governor than for Senate. But I think that's what

1188
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:48,240
Speaker 2: you need. I'm fascinated by that Michigan. You turned me

1189
01:01:48,320 --> 01:01:51,240
Speaker 2: on too, that Michigan governor's race. And because what you

1190
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:55,040
Speaker 2: have is like two only o k likely nominees for

1191
01:01:55,120 --> 01:01:58,760
Speaker 2: the two parties, like jo Justly Benson, the s fine

1192
01:01:59,000 --> 01:02:02,320
Speaker 2: I think with the James, John James on the Republican side,

1193
01:02:02,400 --> 01:02:07,720
Speaker 2: he's totally fine, competent, speaks. There's nothing there's not like

1194
01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:09,840
Speaker 2: a Wimer in that field.

1195
01:02:10,520 --> 01:02:12,880
Speaker 1: And it's a little unfair to Jocelyn Benson. You know.

1196
01:02:12,960 --> 01:02:15,320
Speaker 1: It's like when you're the when you're the next woman

1197
01:02:15,520 --> 01:02:18,400
Speaker 1: in line behind a popular woman governor.

1198
01:02:18,160 --> 01:02:21,600
Speaker 2: That's true, or even Melissa slack Kid. My point is

1199
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:25,680
Speaker 2: there's not somebody who's like an obvious shining star that

1200
01:02:25,880 --> 01:02:28,400
Speaker 2: could be it. I'm fascinated by that. And and look,

1201
01:02:28,800 --> 01:02:32,640
Speaker 2: it's both a condemnation of the Democratic brand in the

1202
01:02:32,720 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 2: Plaine States and also a really interesting experiment in the

1203
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:41,480
Speaker 2: Plain States because all these people are aligned loosely. But

1204
01:02:41,640 --> 01:02:43,840
Speaker 2: but if I had to choose in South Dakota, Montana,

1205
01:02:44,800 --> 01:02:49,160
Speaker 2: the Kansas guy in South and and Nebraska, all of

1206
01:02:49,200 --> 01:02:52,880
Speaker 2: those guys running his independence, they're more on the Democratic

1207
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:54,800
Speaker 2: side than the Republican side, but they have none of

1208
01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:56,880
Speaker 2: them identify as a Democrat because they can't win.

1209
01:02:57,280 --> 01:02:58,600
Speaker 1: None of them would win with a D next to

1210
01:02:58,640 --> 01:02:58,960
Speaker 1: their name.

1211
01:02:58,960 --> 01:03:00,440
Speaker 2: Don't even have a chance. And that I think they

1212
01:03:00,520 --> 01:03:03,920
Speaker 2: will admit that, and that's that's a brand problem for

1213
01:03:03,960 --> 01:03:05,040
Speaker 2: the party. But it's interesting.

1214
01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:09,280
Speaker 1: It's like what I help right, What to me? What

1215
01:03:09,440 --> 01:03:14,000
Speaker 1: makes Duggan's candidacy different is he's running as an independent

1216
01:03:14,080 --> 01:03:17,440
Speaker 1: win Arguably he could have had a better shot at

1217
01:03:17,520 --> 01:03:21,200
Speaker 1: winning a primary because he was mayor of Detroit. He

1218
01:03:21,200 --> 01:03:23,280
Speaker 1: would have been the Democratic nominee, probably would have been

1219
01:03:23,280 --> 01:03:26,600
Speaker 1: the Democratic nominee, and but it was harder and he

1220
01:03:26,600 --> 01:03:28,400
Speaker 1: would have to run a bit more partisan, and he

1221
01:03:28,600 --> 01:03:31,480
Speaker 1: chose that he thought he could govern better as an independent,

1222
01:03:31,600 --> 01:03:34,760
Speaker 1: which is from that is at is something you don't.

1223
01:03:34,920 --> 01:03:39,040
Speaker 1: You rarely see someone make a choice that is harder politically.

1224
01:03:39,040 --> 01:03:41,720
Speaker 1: It would have been easier to become governor by running

1225
01:03:41,720 --> 01:03:44,520
Speaker 1: in a Democratic primary, and he chose not to. Look,

1226
01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:47,040
Speaker 1: I'm one of those I split the difference. I think

1227
01:03:47,080 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 1: it's a big deal if Dougan wins. I think it's

1228
01:03:48,920 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 1: a medium deal. If any of the Senate independents wins

1229
01:03:51,520 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 1: and less more than one wins. Sure, right, if both

1230
01:03:54,280 --> 01:03:58,919
Speaker 1: Osborne and say Bodner the Montana Nebraska both go, I, oh, well,

1231
01:03:59,160 --> 01:04:02,160
Speaker 1: then that's a big story. Then that's a big story.

1232
01:04:02,680 --> 01:04:05,600
Speaker 1: And then that's a that's an entirely different conversation. And

1233
01:04:05,680 --> 01:04:08,840
Speaker 1: I think what that will do. And I think a

1234
01:04:08,880 --> 01:04:10,840
Speaker 1: dug in victory all of them do this more than

1235
01:04:10,880 --> 01:04:14,080
Speaker 1: one eye winning, I think almost guarantees we're going to

1236
01:04:14,120 --> 01:04:14,920
Speaker 1: have a three way president.

1237
01:04:15,320 --> 01:04:17,560
Speaker 2: I was literally just gonna say, you will see the

1238
01:04:17,720 --> 01:04:20,680
Speaker 2: independent third party candidates lining up thrife for president.

1239
01:04:20,880 --> 01:04:23,720
Speaker 1: But that's but twenty six is the testing ground told

1240
01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:24,920
Speaker 1: you've got to be able to break through.

1241
01:04:24,960 --> 01:04:27,560
Speaker 2: If you can't love that storyline, I'm fascinated by it.

1242
01:04:27,720 --> 01:04:29,680
Speaker 1: You can't, but I but I'm going to be as

1243
01:04:29,760 --> 01:04:31,800
Speaker 1: much as I'm a I'm an advocate of this moment

1244
01:04:31,960 --> 01:04:36,720
Speaker 1: for for for independence. If you can't win now, I

1245
01:04:36,760 --> 01:04:38,960
Speaker 1: don't think the water is going to ever be any better. Well,

1246
01:04:39,360 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 1: and so if it does party identification, it doesn't work now,

1247
01:04:43,000 --> 01:04:45,880
Speaker 1: it's not going to work galas party identification.

1248
01:04:45,960 --> 01:04:48,920
Speaker 2: I think Democrats and Republican party ID is at twenty

1249
01:04:49,080 --> 01:04:53,640
Speaker 2: seven percent lower and Independence at forty five. I mean,

1250
01:04:53,680 --> 01:04:56,000
Speaker 2: so it say to your point, like, if you can't

1251
01:04:56,040 --> 01:04:59,360
Speaker 2: win with people hating the two political parties, I don't

1252
01:04:59,360 --> 01:04:59,880
Speaker 2: know when you do it.

1253
01:05:00,400 --> 01:05:02,000
Speaker 1: All right, let me really get you out of hearing this.

1254
01:05:02,440 --> 01:05:04,680
Speaker 1: Do you read Carl Hyson? Were you ever a big

1255
01:05:04,720 --> 01:05:08,120
Speaker 1: fan of his? He's a Florida man, right, yeah, yeah.

1256
01:05:08,600 --> 01:05:11,840
Speaker 2: Arguably he did one of his books. He's like a

1257
01:05:12,400 --> 01:05:16,000
Speaker 2: funny writer. I remember, yes, I need to read more

1258
01:05:16,040 --> 01:05:17,959
Speaker 2: because I remember I liked the one I read.

1259
01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:23,000
Speaker 1: My frustration with with with Carl is that they haven't

1260
01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:25,600
Speaker 1: made more of his books out of movie strip. Tea's

1261
01:05:25,760 --> 01:05:28,520
Speaker 1: was the first big movie he got, the Burt Reynolds

1262
01:05:28,560 --> 01:05:31,200
Speaker 1: and It's not the sugar industry and it's the book

1263
01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:34,240
Speaker 1: is fantastic. The movie wasn't bad. Burt Reynolds plays a

1264
01:05:34,280 --> 01:05:39,400
Speaker 1: great sleevesball congressman. Yeah, I mean he really, it's it's

1265
01:05:39,680 --> 01:05:43,920
Speaker 1: it was the role our Ferguson he was, he was.

1266
01:05:44,280 --> 01:05:45,960
Speaker 1: It was you know what if you told me it

1267
01:05:46,000 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 1: was actually Norm MacDonald playing Burt Reynolds.

1268
01:05:48,320 --> 01:05:50,040
Speaker 2: That's like one of my favorite impersonations.

1269
01:05:50,720 --> 01:05:53,480
Speaker 1: It's fantastic because it's not right. That's what's so great

1270
01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:55,840
Speaker 1: about it? It's just not an impersonation. No, but I'm

1271
01:05:55,960 --> 01:05:59,680
Speaker 1: very excited. There's a new Carl Hyson book being turned

1272
01:05:59,680 --> 01:06:04,920
Speaker 1: into to a TV show, and uh, I'm just very

1273
01:06:04,920 --> 01:06:06,880
Speaker 1: excited about it. I think Amazon Prime is going to

1274
01:06:06,920 --> 01:06:07,080
Speaker 1: have it.

1275
01:06:07,440 --> 01:06:09,520
Speaker 2: What is what book is? R J?

1276
01:06:09,800 --> 01:06:12,920
Speaker 1: Decker is what the new show? It's on ABC. It's

1277
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:18,880
Speaker 1: from his book Double Whamming on broadcast broadcast. That's sorry,

1278
01:06:18,920 --> 01:06:20,120
Speaker 1: I thought it was trying not to.

1279
01:06:20,120 --> 01:06:22,240
Speaker 2: Watch a lot of broadcast TV, Chuck. It doesn't fit

1280
01:06:22,360 --> 01:06:24,400
Speaker 2: with my hipster personality, I know.

1281
01:06:24,760 --> 01:06:27,240
Speaker 1: But you know, both ABC and CBS are desperate and

1282
01:06:27,360 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 1: NBC are desperate to be cool again, so they're green

1283
01:06:29,800 --> 01:06:33,600
Speaker 1: lighting grittier television. I like it, you know, but I'm

1284
01:06:33,680 --> 01:06:37,880
Speaker 1: just very happy. I think more. Look, my favorite Carl

1285
01:06:37,960 --> 01:06:42,240
Speaker 1: Hyson book is called Tour Season. Kay, it is it is?

1286
01:06:42,720 --> 01:06:46,280
Speaker 1: What is it? It's it's a former Miami Dolphin, a

1287
01:06:46,360 --> 01:06:53,920
Speaker 1: former reporter, a Mikasuki Indian, and a Cuban exile I

1288
01:06:54,600 --> 01:06:56,960
Speaker 1: who are sort of this group of guys who are

1289
01:06:57,040 --> 01:07:00,640
Speaker 1: just going to rid Florida of its asshole tourists.

1290
01:07:01,040 --> 01:07:03,480
Speaker 2: And it's just a it's just I love the concept.

1291
01:07:03,520 --> 01:07:05,280
Speaker 2: I'm already in on the concept.

1292
01:07:05,120 --> 01:07:07,760
Speaker 1: They never kill anybody. They just let the tourists and

1293
01:07:07,840 --> 01:07:09,360
Speaker 1: the alligators fight it out.

1294
01:07:09,760 --> 01:07:12,360
Speaker 2: Darwin situations. Yeah it is.

1295
01:07:12,800 --> 01:07:16,920
Speaker 1: But Carl was a political columnist forever in the Miami

1296
01:07:16,960 --> 01:07:20,600
Speaker 1: Heralds and basically when you chronicle all the crazy Florida

1297
01:07:20,680 --> 01:07:23,240
Speaker 1: man stories that go back, he and Dave Barry, by

1298
01:07:23,240 --> 01:07:25,160
Speaker 1: the way, how great you know, back in the day

1299
01:07:25,200 --> 01:07:29,280
Speaker 1: in the Miami Herald. Dave Barry and carlas I grew

1300
01:07:29,400 --> 01:07:31,040
Speaker 1: up with. And it's like, this is why I got

1301
01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:34,960
Speaker 1: into journalism and newspaper guys, because you had great columnists

1302
01:07:35,000 --> 01:07:38,160
Speaker 1: in my local paper, you know, that were just hilarious.

1303
01:07:38,240 --> 01:07:40,120
Speaker 1: You know, my parents would always go, did you read

1304
01:07:40,160 --> 01:07:43,400
Speaker 1: what Dave Barry said? Did you read what Carl heist writing.

1305
01:07:43,120 --> 01:07:46,120
Speaker 2: A sports section with Tony Kornheiser, Mike Wilbon and Shirley

1306
01:07:46,160 --> 01:07:49,280
Speaker 2: Povitch you get of it? Wait, no one would do

1307
01:07:49,400 --> 01:07:51,120
Speaker 2: that that, you would be idiotic.

1308
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,160
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, at least the Miami Herald still actually wants

1309
01:07:54,200 --> 01:07:56,240
Speaker 1: to publish a Hyatin column every now and then, and

1310
01:07:56,320 --> 01:07:59,360
Speaker 1: at Dave Barry, by the way, Dave Barry is a substack.

1311
01:07:59,680 --> 01:08:01,600
Speaker 2: I know, and it's funny as hell.

1312
01:08:01,920 --> 01:08:05,600
Speaker 1: It's really funny. I know he's not everybody's cup of tea,

1313
01:08:05,800 --> 01:08:06,440
Speaker 1: but it's funny.

1314
01:08:06,680 --> 01:08:08,560
Speaker 2: My wife yells at me because she's like, we just

1315
01:08:08,640 --> 01:08:11,640
Speaker 2: got another charge on your Kindle. How many books can

1316
01:08:11,680 --> 01:08:13,200
Speaker 2: you possibly read? And I was like, if that's my

1317
01:08:13,360 --> 01:08:15,760
Speaker 2: worst vice, so I'm going to go buy to our season.

1318
01:08:15,800 --> 01:08:17,840
Speaker 2: So if my wife yells at you, it's because I

1319
01:08:17,920 --> 01:08:18,600
Speaker 2: blamed you for it.

1320
01:08:18,720 --> 01:08:22,920
Speaker 1: It's It's fantastic and I believe. I do believe he's

1321
01:08:23,920 --> 01:08:26,800
Speaker 1: one of his fictional characters is who he thinks Lawton

1322
01:08:26,880 --> 01:08:30,280
Speaker 1: Child's would be if he w Yeah, he's got a

1323
01:08:30,280 --> 01:08:31,040
Speaker 1: great lot of Child