WEBVTT - Oracle and Walmart’s Deal for TikTok

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the

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<v Speaker 1>latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

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<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course Carol that's part of a team of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts the more than a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You

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<v Speaker 1>can also listen to our radio show at two pm

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Let's set the Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week agenda, now a lot on it. Gina Martin Adams,

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<v Speaker 1>Chief Equity Strategies for Bloomberg Intelligence. She's in New Jersey,

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<v Speaker 1>as is Stave Wilson, Stocks Editor, author of the Chart

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<v Speaker 1>and Stock of the Day. Gina, I want to start

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<v Speaker 1>with you because it's a pretty gloomy picture across all

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<v Speaker 1>the major indices. What are you seeing as you and

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<v Speaker 1>your team really break it down? What's the big driver here? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's have to articulate one driver or another.

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<v Speaker 1>The SMP five opened this week testing key levels. We

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<v Speaker 1>saw the index crush through its fifty day moving average

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<v Speaker 1>as of Friday, so we knew we were in for

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<v Speaker 1>some continuation of the corrective process when we woke up

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<v Speaker 1>this morning. Irrespective of some of the news, in particular

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<v Speaker 1>the news on Financial Spector and maybe some dubious nefarious

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<v Speaker 1>behavior among participants being potentially pretty dangerous for that space,

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<v Speaker 1>has been the big news of today, and that may

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<v Speaker 1>have contributed to a broader a broader sell off than

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<v Speaker 1>would have been likely otherwise. But I'd say the technicals

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<v Speaker 1>were set up for a rough day to continue today.

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<v Speaker 1>Now we may be looking at finally a capitulation point,

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<v Speaker 1>which you know, for the first time since the end

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<v Speaker 1>of August, we can say the index is nearing over

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<v Speaker 1>soul levels. Um, so we want to watch through the

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<v Speaker 1>clothes to see how broad the correction is. If we

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<v Speaker 1>get to a fourteen day moving average or a fourteen

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<v Speaker 1>day rs I back near over souled levels, that could

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<v Speaker 1>represent a buying point for capital that's been looking to

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<v Speaker 1>get into this market but waiting for an appropriate time

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<v Speaker 1>to do so. Dave Wilson come on in on what

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<v Speaker 1>you're seeing in the trade today. You know, there are

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of things that jump out besides what's going

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<v Speaker 1>on with the banks. You know, after this report from

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<v Speaker 1>the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists talking about you know,

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<v Speaker 1>how they may be handling or not handling suspicious transactions properly. So,

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<v Speaker 1>uh that that's a piece of it. Beyond that, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you look at what's going on with hospitals and with

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<v Speaker 1>health insurers. All this so tied up with what happens

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<v Speaker 1>to the Affordable Care Act now that the Supreme Court

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<v Speaker 1>Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has passed, and you know, we

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<v Speaker 1>may get a successor before election day, which would mean

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<v Speaker 1>we'd have a successor when a week after election day

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<v Speaker 1>the High Court here's arguments by the states trying to

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<v Speaker 1>get rid of Obamacare. So you know, those stocks are

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<v Speaker 1>especially weak in today's trading. And then there's the saga

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<v Speaker 1>of Nicola, the electric truck developer, and yeah, the do

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<v Speaker 1>you wonder they're sitting at General Motors saying whose the

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<v Speaker 1>idea was this? I mean, they're still they're still more

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<v Speaker 1>to know and I don't want to, you know, kind

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<v Speaker 1>of they aren't doing it at GM. I can assure

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<v Speaker 1>you GM shareholders at least some of them are asking

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<v Speaker 1>that question. Because while Nichola is down nineteen percent, GM's

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<v Speaker 1>off more than five and a half percent. And there's

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<v Speaker 1>another company that's already working with Nicholas, c NH Industrial.

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<v Speaker 1>Now they're big in two tractors and you know other

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<v Speaker 1>types of sort of industrial machines. CNH is down almost

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<v Speaker 1>eight percent. So there's definitely a toll being taken that

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<v Speaker 1>goes beyond you know, this development stage company. And and

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<v Speaker 1>so that's another one that jumps out, especially because Nicola

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<v Speaker 1>is the product of, you know, a deal with one

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<v Speaker 1>of these special persents, acquisition companies, backs, blank check companies,

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<v Speaker 1>calling what you will, real black eye. Absolutely, we've been

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<v Speaker 1>talking about those a ton uh Gina Martin Adams before

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<v Speaker 1>we let you go the election, Paul Ticks, Is that

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<v Speaker 1>starting to weigh on this market in a more meaningful way? Yeah, well, politics,

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<v Speaker 1>I think they've already highlighted the Ginsburg passing and what

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<v Speaker 1>that may mean for the Supreme Court and the a

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<v Speaker 1>c a um sort of battle upcoming. So there certainly

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<v Speaker 1>is a portion of politics. I would also say, though

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<v Speaker 1>the election is absolutely getting priced into Vic's futures. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen over the last month VIX futures for November

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<v Speaker 1>getting even more expensive than October, which says to me

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<v Speaker 1>the market is trying to price for a very uncertain

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<v Speaker 1>or highly followtile election season lasting right through the end

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<v Speaker 1>of November, which would be very unusual. So I do

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<v Speaker 1>you think it's part of this? But obviously there are

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of moving parts, and it all started with

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<v Speaker 1>the deflation of a mini tech bubble which is now

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<v Speaker 1>extending into other issues. Right, all right, well, good, good

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<v Speaker 1>context as always, Thank you so much. Gina Martin Adams,

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<v Speaker 1>chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, along with Dave Wilson,

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<v Speaker 1>Stocks editor for Bloomberg, both joining us from New Jersey.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason

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<v Speaker 1>Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. One of the best stories and

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<v Speaker 1>one of the best reporters. Candidly, I just love talking

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<v Speaker 1>to him, love reading his stuff. Jeff Green, Managing Diversity

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<v Speaker 1>reporter for Bloomberg. He joins us on the phone for

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<v Speaker 1>Michigan to talk about a story it's in the upcoming

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<v Speaker 1>edition of the magazine. It's about Southern Bank Corps. It's

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<v Speaker 1>CEO named Darren Williams. He joins me as well as

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<v Speaker 1>Joel Webber, the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. So Joel

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<v Speaker 1>part of the equality issue, I believe, and this is

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<v Speaker 1>a really really important piece of the puzzle when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to undoing a lot of the systemic racism, candidly

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<v Speaker 1>going after the wealth gap and the lending gap to

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<v Speaker 1>a large extent, that's right. And so Darren Williams um

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<v Speaker 1>one of finances only black CEOs, and he's a CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of of Southern Bank Corps, which Jeff is gonna tell

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<v Speaker 1>about more in a second. What I found so interesting

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<v Speaker 1>about this was it's like there's this void um in

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<v Speaker 1>the country, uh, in the South in particular, where there

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<v Speaker 1>are thousands of underbanked people and that has obviously limited

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<v Speaker 1>their ability to not only get capital but also you know,

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<v Speaker 1>move up in society. And that's a problem that UM

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<v Speaker 1>UH Darren has sort of recognized and that UH Southern

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<v Speaker 1>Bank work has moved to solve UM. And Jeff how

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<v Speaker 1>I talked to us about how he's going about addressing

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<v Speaker 1>this problem. Yeah, Well, it's it's really interesting that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the under underbanked about a quarter of the population,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're predominantly they tend to skew heavily black UM

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<v Speaker 1>and people of color in general, but mostly black UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's the kind of thing that's somewhat hidden and

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<v Speaker 1>it's a little bit intractable attractable because these are people

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<v Speaker 1>that banks really can't lend money to, and thus they

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<v Speaker 1>in up going to payday lenders, which makes them even

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<v Speaker 1>higher credit risk because they have they have so much debt.

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<v Speaker 1>So what there in and Southern we're trying to do,

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<v Speaker 1>even before the pandemic, was a figure out a way

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<v Speaker 1>to sort of bridge this, to bring these people into

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<v Speaker 1>the banking system, help them to trust the banks, give

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<v Speaker 1>them some sense that what they're doing with the payday lenders,

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<v Speaker 1>they're never going to gain sort of the wealth that

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<v Speaker 1>you get. You can't get a house, you can't get

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<v Speaker 1>a mortgage until you kind of straighten that stuff out.

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<v Speaker 1>So like that's his big goal is to put more

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<v Speaker 1>people in a position to be able to have a

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<v Speaker 1>bank account, gang credit and ultimately have a mortgage and

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<v Speaker 1>have something we're wealth as accrued. And it was interesting

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<v Speaker 1>because we started doing this a year ago, prior to

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic and the big frustrating thing for him was

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<v Speaker 1>it was sort of in the background, and it was like,

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<v Speaker 1>you knew this was a problem, you knew it was

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<v Speaker 1>sucking the life out of people, but it was really

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<v Speaker 1>hard for people to sort of understand just how momentous

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<v Speaker 1>it was. And you know, then the pandemic hits, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, front and center are people dying at three

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<v Speaker 1>times the rate in black communities, and it's like you

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<v Speaker 1>start to say, Wow, this is not just esoteric philosophical discussion.

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<v Speaker 1>This is life and death, and the death is really

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<v Speaker 1>stunning to a lot of a lot of Americans. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and Jeff, I think then on top of that, in

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<v Speaker 1>the aftermath of the killing of George Floyd and and

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<v Speaker 1>this reckoning, this long overdue reckoning around all of those

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<v Speaker 1>issues that you described, around the wealth gap that's been

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<v Speaker 1>brought to the foe by the likes of John Rodgers

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<v Speaker 1>over at Ariel and others. And I do wonder, you

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<v Speaker 1>know how Darren Williams sees this and sort of to

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<v Speaker 1>your point, like this has been hiding in plain sight

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<v Speaker 1>for a long time. He's happy for the attention, but

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<v Speaker 1>what do we do about What does he say we

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<v Speaker 1>should be doing. What is he doing to sort of

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<v Speaker 1>help the cause. Well, the solution that both you know,

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<v Speaker 1>he sees because he is his bank is called the

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<v Speaker 1>Consumer Development Financial Institution, which is sort of a specially

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<v Speaker 1>chartered bank that is designed to try and bring money

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, loans and financial wherewithal to the poorest

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<v Speaker 1>people in the country. Um. It was something actually created

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<v Speaker 1>by President Clinton in ninety four and the and Southern

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<v Speaker 1>was the model for Hillary. Clinton was on the first

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<v Speaker 1>version of the the Southern Board when it was formed, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>more than a quarter century ago, so it's like a

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<v Speaker 1>long standing pieces. This is not a new struggle. But

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<v Speaker 1>his idea is to use the c d fys more effectively.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs were on

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<v Speaker 1>a call with him and President Trump basically saying we

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<v Speaker 1>need to do this, we need to do more of this.

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<v Speaker 1>And it led to a big infusion of money to

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<v Speaker 1>the c d f ies. And that is sort of

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<v Speaker 1>the question is will discontinue. I mean, it was in

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<v Speaker 1>a crisis moment, the paycheck Protection Plan was not getting

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<v Speaker 1>to the people that needed to because the big banks

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<v Speaker 1>didn't have the infrastructure. Meanwhile, here's Darren Williams working on

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<v Speaker 1>the weekend with his staff getting you know, wrote fifty

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<v Speaker 1>checks when other people hadn't even got an application yet.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's sort of his hope is that now people

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<v Speaker 1>know the c d I fis are, they're the big

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<v Speaker 1>banks have kind of thrown some money their way. Netflix

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<v Speaker 1>is involved, Google's involved. Will you get this to contin

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<v Speaker 1>new so the focus stays on the c d fys.

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<v Speaker 1>More money is available so they can do more loans.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean that's the only way it works is they

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<v Speaker 1>need basically below market rate money that they can then

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<v Speaker 1>lend out to keep this moving. So Jeff, there there's

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<v Speaker 1>a thousand of the c d f I s um

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<v Speaker 1>out there that are in a position to help UM,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's all been modeled on on on basically Williams

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<v Speaker 1>and sort of in the model that they've adapted. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>also curious what other ideas he has for how we

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<v Speaker 1>could be helping UM vulnerable Americans right now. Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean one of the key things is credit education. They

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<v Speaker 1>were doing this. I mean I went with them to

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<v Speaker 1>a class in this little town site in uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>just off a cotton field, just you know, middle of nowhere.

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<v Speaker 1>But twenty people. They're learning about credit and how it

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<v Speaker 1>works and how interest cruise and debt and all those

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<v Speaker 1>sorts of things. Basically just right at the grassroots level,

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<v Speaker 1>trying to teach people, um, you know, how to get

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<v Speaker 1>their finances in order. And then at the end of that,

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<v Speaker 1>they would give them this nine percent loan, which you know,

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<v Speaker 1>keep in mind, a payday loan is around, you know

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<v Speaker 1>if you don't pay it off right away. So this

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<v Speaker 1>nine percent loan at the time UM that they would keep,

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<v Speaker 1>they would pay half of it, half of it would

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<v Speaker 1>be available for them to pay bills and half to

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<v Speaker 1>be held in sort of like a certificate of deposit.

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<v Speaker 1>And that was like one of the tools. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>there's lots of things that he's basically saying, you need

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<v Speaker 1>to just do the block and tackling UM in the

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<v Speaker 1>communities to keep this going. And a lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>big banks have pulled out, and he's like, great, you

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to deal with it, Give me more money

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<v Speaker 1>so that I can deal with this, so I can

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<v Speaker 1>get the money to the people that needed, I can

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<v Speaker 1>focus on the hardest hit communities UM with more effectiveness,

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<v Speaker 1>right right, Well, And it's interesting and I highly recommend

0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:47.080
<v Speaker 1>people read this story because there's an aspect of this

0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:49.679
<v Speaker 1>and you alluded to this, Jeff, around the payday lenders.

0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:54.160
<v Speaker 1>That's a really important piece to understand. The delta in

0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:58.280
<v Speaker 1>the interest rates there is massive and game changing in

0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of ways. It's a terrific piece to reporting.

0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:04.119
<v Speaker 1>As always from Jeff Green, Managing Diversity reporter for Bloomberg.

0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:07.320
<v Speaker 1>He joined me on the phone from Michigan. Check out

0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:10.240
<v Speaker 1>that story in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week.

0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:13.120
<v Speaker 1>Can read it now on the Bloomberg and Bloomberg dot Com.

0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:15.520
<v Speaker 1>My thanks as well to Joel Webber, the editor of

0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:20.120
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. He joined from Massachusetts. This is Bloomberg

0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:24.600
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with GARYL. Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio.

0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:29.120
<v Speaker 1>All right, you are listening to Bloomberg Business Week, kicking

0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:32.560
<v Speaker 1>off the three pm Wall Street time. Our Let's do

0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:35.880
<v Speaker 1>a little business week economics if we can. Andy Brown

0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:38.880
<v Speaker 1>is with this, editorial director for Bloomberg New Economy, joining

0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:41.440
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from New Hampshire, picking up where

0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:45.120
<v Speaker 1>Doug Chrisner just left off. When it comes to TikTok

0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:48.800
<v Speaker 1>Man this deal, and we've talked about it before, Andy

0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:53.640
<v Speaker 1>is just headspinning, head scratching, however you want to put it.

0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:57.199
<v Speaker 1>It's nothing like we've ever seen before, and it ain't

0:12:57.320 --> 0:13:00.640
<v Speaker 1>over when it comes to getting done. What's the most

0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:05.000
<v Speaker 1>important thing we need to understand about this because as

0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:07.240
<v Speaker 1>I look at it at least, and I think you

0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:10.440
<v Speaker 1>may agree, it's kind of a mess. It is a

0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 1>complete debacle and has been really right from the very beginning.

0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:19.280
<v Speaker 1>And stuck in the middle of this U S China

0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:25.920
<v Speaker 1>geo political tug of war is a company and investors

0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:29.480
<v Speaker 1>that are desperately trying to figure a way out. On

0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:33.040
<v Speaker 1>the one hand, they this is TikTok and its parent

0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:36.880
<v Speaker 1>bike Dance. On the one hand, they've got the Chinese government,

0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:41.120
<v Speaker 1>which essentially looks at what's happening as a politically inspired

0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:45.840
<v Speaker 1>smash and grab raid by the Trump administration, and on

0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:50.000
<v Speaker 1>the other hand by the Trump administration UM which is

0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:53.680
<v Speaker 1>using the TikTok issue and we chat as a chip

0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:58.240
<v Speaker 1>or as a bargaining chip in uh in in domestic politics,

0:13:58.320 --> 0:14:04.480
<v Speaker 1>essentially beating up on China as a vote getting vote,

0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:08.319
<v Speaker 1>vote getting ploy. And so they've been twisting this way

0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:11.760
<v Speaker 1>and that way, and it now looks like this deal

0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:14.960
<v Speaker 1>that they stitched together, which by the way, gets Trump

0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:17.760
<v Speaker 1>almost nothing of what he wanted in the first place

0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:21.760
<v Speaker 1>out of it. Um, and even that deal now looks shaky.

0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.240
<v Speaker 1>It's not at all sure that the Chinese side are

0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:26.360
<v Speaker 1>going to sign off on it, or whether Trump himself

0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:32.800
<v Speaker 1>is satisfied with it, and so, knowing the intricacies of

0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:37.800
<v Speaker 1>the governments and that nexus between the national governments and

0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.920
<v Speaker 1>the national champions as it were, both of which I

0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:44.320
<v Speaker 1>think you can argue you have on either side here.

0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:48.720
<v Speaker 1>What went wrong? Was this just sort of too hard,

0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:52.920
<v Speaker 1>too fast, or was everybody not on board to begin with?

0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:55.880
<v Speaker 1>Like what do you make of it again, especially knowing

0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:58.640
<v Speaker 1>some of the nuances of how each side interacts with

0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:04.520
<v Speaker 1>the other. Well, it just the whole deal is is unprecedented. Um.

0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:07.320
<v Speaker 1>We've never had a company caught up in this way

0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 1>before with kind of m and a UM being dictated

0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:16.359
<v Speaker 1>literally out of the out of the Oval office. Um.

0:15:16.520 --> 0:15:21.120
<v Speaker 1>So it's it's incredibly it's incredibly difficult. There are so

0:15:21.160 --> 0:15:25.200
<v Speaker 1>many constituencies that need to be satisfied. Um. And in

0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:27.880
<v Speaker 1>the end it looks like nobody is gonna be so.

0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:29.560
<v Speaker 1>So Trump came into this, he said, look, I've got

0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:32.000
<v Speaker 1>three things. Number One, this TikTok has got to be

0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:34.560
<v Speaker 1>owned by a US company. Number Two, we have to

0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:38.600
<v Speaker 1>make the data secure UM so that doesn't foll into

0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:40.720
<v Speaker 1>the hands of the Chinese companist party and they have

0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:44.440
<v Speaker 1>all this personal data on on on the US population.

0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:47.360
<v Speaker 1>And three we want to have a big chunk of change.

0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:51.080
<v Speaker 1>They're going to make a big payment to the U. S. Treasury. Well, actually,

0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:53.960
<v Speaker 1>even under this new deal, any percent of the company

0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:55.600
<v Speaker 1>after the I p O if it i p O

0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:57.480
<v Speaker 1>S is still going to be owned by by byke

0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:02.680
<v Speaker 1>Dance UM. The algorithm UM are going to be open

0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:08.120
<v Speaker 1>to inspection by Oracle, the trusted technology partner. But it

0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:10.960
<v Speaker 1>won't they won't in that sense sort of belong to

0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:14.360
<v Speaker 1>any U S entity. Bite does has them and asked

0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:18.360
<v Speaker 1>for this five billion dollar payment that Trump talks about. Um.

0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:19.880
<v Speaker 1>You know, it turns out that this is kind of

0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:22.600
<v Speaker 1>tax that they were going to be paying anyway to

0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:25.320
<v Speaker 1>the U. S. Government. And there's some sort of vague,

0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:28.800
<v Speaker 1>nebulous promise that they'll come up with a kind of

0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 1>some kind of patriotic education program, whatever that may mean

0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:36.880
<v Speaker 1>for for US kids. UM. So, so he's got he's

0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 1>got actually very little of what he pushed for. So

0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:43.760
<v Speaker 1>if if your concern with national security, this deal doesn't

0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:47.280
<v Speaker 1>really do it for you, And so as you widen

0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:49.560
<v Speaker 1>the aperture a little bit and think about this from

0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:54.920
<v Speaker 1>the context of ongoing tensions, ongoing negotiations around trade and

0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:57.760
<v Speaker 1>the broader relationship when the U with between the U

0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:00.640
<v Speaker 1>S and China, what does this tell you? You know,

0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:04.280
<v Speaker 1>if you're a Chinese company and you're thinking about making

0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:08.760
<v Speaker 1>an investment in the US, um you're thinking strategically indeed

0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:11.880
<v Speaker 1>about your global position. Or if you're an American company

0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:14.679
<v Speaker 1>now and you're thinking about, you know, the China market

0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:17.280
<v Speaker 1>and how you should be positioned there. This should really

0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:21.840
<v Speaker 1>worry you because because it has been so unpredictable. I mean,

0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:26.760
<v Speaker 1>we're in we're in uncharted territory. Um, there are no

0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:30.080
<v Speaker 1>there are no real rules, at least under the old system,

0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:33.720
<v Speaker 1>the CIFIERS system, this sort of you know, the screening process. Um,

0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:36.640
<v Speaker 1>it was somewhat predictable. You knew what you were getting into.

0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:38.880
<v Speaker 1>A lot of deals didn't get done because companies thought

0:17:38.880 --> 0:17:40.480
<v Speaker 1>to themselves, well, it's not going to get through the

0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:43.320
<v Speaker 1>U S screening committee, so we won't bother. This one

0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:47.600
<v Speaker 1>just came right out of left field in surprise, surprise everybody.

0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:51.639
<v Speaker 1>And so on the other side, if you're a US

0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:56.680
<v Speaker 1>tech company, what do you think about this? Well? So,

0:17:57.080 --> 0:18:00.560
<v Speaker 1>and actually it's not just tech right now, there's there's uh,

0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:03.639
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of talk about an entities list. So

0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:05.879
<v Speaker 1>the Chinese could actually come up with a list of

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:11.760
<v Speaker 1>companies that could be subject to retribution, not necessarily US companies,

0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:18.520
<v Speaker 1>So that could include tech companies, but banks, um, trading companies. Um.

0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:22.040
<v Speaker 1>You know, China hasn't retaliated so far because it really

0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:26.400
<v Speaker 1>needs foreign investment, it needs foreign technology. Um. But but

0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:29.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, pushed, pushed far enough, they actually could start

0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:33.880
<v Speaker 1>to take action against US companies, international companies in China. Wow.

0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:37.160
<v Speaker 1>All right, Andy Brown, thank you so much. Andy Brown,

0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:41.360
<v Speaker 1>of course is the editorial director for Bloomberg New Economy.

0:18:41.520 --> 0:18:44.200
<v Speaker 1>He has been breaking down this deal trying to make

0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:46.320
<v Speaker 1>sense of it alongside the rest of us. I have

0:18:46.480 --> 0:18:49.560
<v Speaker 1>to say, Uh, this is something we've watched incredibly closely.

0:18:49.560 --> 0:18:56.720
<v Speaker 1>We've had a global team working on it from all angles, corporate, dealmaking, political, international.

0:18:57.200 --> 0:19:01.399
<v Speaker 1>It has touched all boxes and cantinues to evolve and

0:19:01.480 --> 0:19:04.080
<v Speaker 1>change in this week. Seems like it will be a

0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:06.919
<v Speaker 1>big week when it comes to that deal happening or

0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:09.520
<v Speaker 1>not happening, And obviously a lot of it just comes

0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:12.480
<v Speaker 1>down to the President United States and what he decides

0:19:12.520 --> 0:19:16.040
<v Speaker 1>to do when it comes to TikTok our. Thanks to

0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:19.720
<v Speaker 1>Andy Brown. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser

0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:24.320
<v Speaker 1>and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Happy to welcome to

0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:28.159
<v Speaker 1>this program. Pete Stavros, he's co head of America's for

0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.280
<v Speaker 1>Private Equity for KKR. Heard of it. It's one of

0:19:31.320 --> 0:19:34.200
<v Speaker 1>the best known private equity firms, and it's a firm

0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:36.919
<v Speaker 1>that has been talking a lot over the past years

0:19:37.040 --> 0:19:41.040
<v Speaker 1>about its various stakeholders, and that includes employees. At a

0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:46.320
<v Speaker 1>time when we're more and more concerned about all of

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:50.159
<v Speaker 1>the constituencies involved in a company. Pete, you've got some

0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:52.520
<v Speaker 1>news today to share with us about what you're doing

0:19:52.800 --> 0:19:56.479
<v Speaker 1>with some of your portfolio companies. First, welcome, tell us

0:19:56.480 --> 0:20:02.520
<v Speaker 1>what's going on at Ingersol RAMD. Thanks for having me, Jason.

0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:06.359
<v Speaker 1>So today we celebrated a hundred and fifty million dollar

0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:10.280
<v Speaker 1>equity award to non members of management. So these are

0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:13.800
<v Speaker 1>mostly hourly employees who work in our factories and our

0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:17.840
<v Speaker 1>distribution centers and earning ourly hourly wage. This is on

0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:20.879
<v Speaker 1>top of a hundred million dollar grant we did at

0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:24.200
<v Speaker 1>our I p O in two thousand and seventeen, which

0:20:24.240 --> 0:20:26.880
<v Speaker 1>because the stock has performed so well, is now worth

0:20:26.880 --> 0:20:29.320
<v Speaker 1>about a hundred and seventy eight million dollars. So you

0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:32.160
<v Speaker 1>add both those up, it's more than three hundred million

0:20:32.160 --> 0:20:35.480
<v Speaker 1>dollars of equity in the hands of hourly workers, and

0:20:35.960 --> 0:20:40.680
<v Speaker 1>so very meaningful financially. And you know, we've got lots

0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:43.080
<v Speaker 1>of kind of personal stories we've been able to to

0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:45.800
<v Speaker 1>hear firsthand in terms of what it's meant for them,

0:20:46.040 --> 0:20:48.760
<v Speaker 1>and then just as importantly in terms of outcomes for

0:20:49.440 --> 0:20:52.680
<v Speaker 1>companies and for our investors. You know, we see higher

0:20:52.680 --> 0:20:56.520
<v Speaker 1>employee engagement, better returns, better results, and better outcomes for

0:20:56.520 --> 0:20:59.400
<v Speaker 1>our investors. Well, and let's talk about the personal side

0:20:59.400 --> 0:21:01.240
<v Speaker 1>of this, and I'm going to start with you, because

0:21:01.560 --> 0:21:06.040
<v Speaker 1>part of the genesis of this, I think is your

0:21:06.040 --> 0:21:09.240
<v Speaker 1>own history and sort of growing up and understanding the

0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:13.440
<v Speaker 1>industrial landscape, not just as now an investor, but as

0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:18.360
<v Speaker 1>a kid from from your dad. Yeah, that's right. My

0:21:18.359 --> 0:21:20.840
<v Speaker 1>my dad was a construction worker. He operated a road

0:21:20.880 --> 0:21:24.600
<v Speaker 1>grader for his whole career in Chicago earned an hourly wage,

0:21:25.200 --> 0:21:27.800
<v Speaker 1>and you know, I just saw firsthand the lack of

0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:30.239
<v Speaker 1>incentive alignment. And if you think about it, if you're

0:21:30.240 --> 0:21:33.000
<v Speaker 1>an hourly employee, really all you care about are getting

0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:35.800
<v Speaker 1>more hours, so that can be at the expense of efficiency.

0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:38.080
<v Speaker 1>If you're too efficient, you may work fewer hours and

0:21:38.160 --> 0:21:42.520
<v Speaker 1>earn less money. And there was just constant conflict around hours.

0:21:42.520 --> 0:21:46.000
<v Speaker 1>And my dad always dreamt about, you know, shared ownership

0:21:46.119 --> 0:21:50.080
<v Speaker 1>or profit sharing at his um construction company with his union,

0:21:50.640 --> 0:21:53.320
<v Speaker 1>and you know, unfortunately never happened, but that's certainly really

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:56.720
<v Speaker 1>stuck with me. And then as a graduate student, you know,

0:21:56.840 --> 0:21:59.159
<v Speaker 1>years later, this is not still twenty years ago, but

0:21:59.720 --> 0:22:02.680
<v Speaker 1>as as a young adult in graduate school, you get

0:22:02.680 --> 0:22:05.000
<v Speaker 1>a lot of flexibility to study what interests you. And

0:22:05.000 --> 0:22:08.040
<v Speaker 1>I had an opportunity to study broad based ownership for

0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:10.679
<v Speaker 1>my second year in business school. And there was a

0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:13.840
<v Speaker 1>hot topic in the nineteen seventies around ESOPs had really

0:22:13.920 --> 0:22:16.760
<v Speaker 1>kind of cooled and I was interested to learn why

0:22:16.800 --> 0:22:19.960
<v Speaker 1>it interest dissipated. Could it still be relevant today, could

0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:22.280
<v Speaker 1>it be relevant to private equity? And then when I

0:22:22.359 --> 0:22:25.919
<v Speaker 1>joined KKR back in oh five and and was fortunate

0:22:26.000 --> 0:22:29.080
<v Speaker 1>enough to step into a leadership position running industrials. That

0:22:29.160 --> 0:22:30.680
<v Speaker 1>was when I was able to kind of first put

0:22:30.720 --> 0:22:34.240
<v Speaker 1>these ideas into action. And it's fascinating too because this,

0:22:34.440 --> 0:22:37.280
<v Speaker 1>and I'm just gonna say it out loud, this cuts

0:22:37.320 --> 0:22:41.879
<v Speaker 1>against candidly that the public profile of private equity uh

0:22:42.000 --> 0:22:45.600
<v Speaker 1>in many ways that tends to enrich a few and

0:22:45.600 --> 0:22:48.639
<v Speaker 1>and not think about the rest in many ways. So

0:22:48.720 --> 0:22:51.879
<v Speaker 1>I do wonder what the conversations are like as you

0:22:51.920 --> 0:22:54.639
<v Speaker 1>engage companies around this. Are they looking at you like,

0:22:55.040 --> 0:23:00.200
<v Speaker 1>I don't know about this? Yeah, we do encounter some

0:23:00.200 --> 0:23:03.639
<v Speaker 1>some skepticism, you know, maybe even some cynicism. Some of

0:23:03.680 --> 0:23:06.240
<v Speaker 1>our companies we are buying from other private equity firms,

0:23:06.400 --> 0:23:08.440
<v Speaker 1>and so we do get a little bit of I've

0:23:08.440 --> 0:23:11.000
<v Speaker 1>been around the block. I've seen this before, you know,

0:23:11.000 --> 0:23:12.760
<v Speaker 1>and I just don't believe that we're going to share

0:23:12.760 --> 0:23:14.560
<v Speaker 1>an ownership and you're gonna do all these things you're

0:23:14.560 --> 0:23:17.639
<v Speaker 1>telling us around investing in the facilities and investing in employees.

0:23:18.200 --> 0:23:21.080
<v Speaker 1>So there is some uh, you've got some wood to

0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:24.080
<v Speaker 1>chop at the outset. We overcome it by bringing in

0:23:24.200 --> 0:23:26.920
<v Speaker 1>c e o s from companies that have run businesses

0:23:26.960 --> 0:23:29.040
<v Speaker 1>for us before and telling them that this is this

0:23:29.119 --> 0:23:31.600
<v Speaker 1>is real, We really mean it. We also do a

0:23:31.600 --> 0:23:35.200
<v Speaker 1>lot to make that ownership feel real. So we print

0:23:35.200 --> 0:23:39.000
<v Speaker 1>physical stock certificates. Often we will open up Fidelity accounts

0:23:39.040 --> 0:23:42.000
<v Speaker 1>for people, even though the stock of their company might

0:23:42.040 --> 0:23:44.800
<v Speaker 1>be private and not publicly traded. You know, we we

0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:48.600
<v Speaker 1>do as our valuations internally changed for that company, we

0:23:48.640 --> 0:23:51.840
<v Speaker 1>flow it through Fidelity and then they see value being

0:23:51.840 --> 0:23:55.000
<v Speaker 1>created in their portfolio. So but but I have to say,

0:23:55.280 --> 0:23:58.679
<v Speaker 1>even public companies Inger saw Ran, the predecessor company Gardner

0:23:58.720 --> 0:24:00.800
<v Speaker 1>Denver when we took it, is a public company. In

0:24:02.280 --> 0:24:05.840
<v Speaker 1>six thousand employees, eighty six people had ownership, which is

0:24:05.960 --> 0:24:08.600
<v Speaker 1>very typical. One to two of a company typically takes

0:24:08.640 --> 0:24:11.159
<v Speaker 1>up all the ownership. And so you know, even in

0:24:11.200 --> 0:24:13.880
<v Speaker 1>public companies, we do come up up against the skepticism

0:24:13.920 --> 0:24:19.159
<v Speaker 1>you're talking about. And so talk about other elements of this,

0:24:19.240 --> 0:24:23.160
<v Speaker 1>because obviously the financial element is super important. But one

0:24:23.200 --> 0:24:25.680
<v Speaker 1>of the things that we're increasingly talking about. We talked

0:24:25.680 --> 0:24:28.679
<v Speaker 1>about it earlier on today, and it's part of the

0:24:28.720 --> 0:24:33.840
<v Speaker 1>Business Week issue this week is not just about shared ownership,

0:24:33.880 --> 0:24:37.840
<v Speaker 1>but basically sort of a holistic view of someone's finances

0:24:37.920 --> 0:24:40.560
<v Speaker 1>and creating wealth and and I believe you've done some

0:24:40.600 --> 0:24:43.560
<v Speaker 1>work with Operation Hope. John Brian Hope, John Hope Briant

0:24:43.560 --> 0:24:46.440
<v Speaker 1>excuse me, has been a guest on this program. Uh,

0:24:46.560 --> 0:24:50.920
<v Speaker 1>tell me a little bit more about what you're doing there.

0:24:50.800 --> 0:24:54.240
<v Speaker 1>You're right, it does have to be broader than just ownership,

0:24:54.240 --> 0:24:56.280
<v Speaker 1>because if it's just ownership and you just hand out

0:24:56.280 --> 0:24:59.160
<v Speaker 1>the ownership and that's the end of the conversation, that's

0:24:59.160 --> 0:25:02.440
<v Speaker 1>just compensation. And if what you're after is a better

0:25:02.440 --> 0:25:06.639
<v Speaker 1>employee experience, more engaged employees, and better ultimate performance in

0:25:06.640 --> 0:25:08.879
<v Speaker 1>the company, you've you've got to be broader than that.

0:25:09.000 --> 0:25:12.680
<v Speaker 1>So even as it relates to ownership, the CEOs who

0:25:12.680 --> 0:25:14.840
<v Speaker 1>do this well in our CEO of ingersoll Rand is

0:25:15.119 --> 0:25:19.000
<v Speaker 1>exceptionally good at this, Vicentia Reynal. You've got to treat

0:25:19.000 --> 0:25:21.040
<v Speaker 1>people like owners So you've got to share the business plan,

0:25:21.600 --> 0:25:23.320
<v Speaker 1>share the vision where we headed, how are we going

0:25:23.400 --> 0:25:25.879
<v Speaker 1>to get there? How are is everyone going to participate

0:25:26.000 --> 0:25:28.960
<v Speaker 1>in the upside, you know, assuming we achieve our plans.

0:25:29.000 --> 0:25:32.840
<v Speaker 1>But then beyond ownership, we do things around investing in

0:25:32.840 --> 0:25:36.439
<v Speaker 1>the workforce, um improving the work environment, which starts with

0:25:36.480 --> 0:25:39.919
<v Speaker 1>the basics like employee safety, but also we've extended to

0:25:40.440 --> 0:25:42.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, we've brought in healthier food options to our

0:25:42.960 --> 0:25:46.359
<v Speaker 1>manufacturing plants. Right now, we're building an on site medical

0:25:46.400 --> 0:25:49.240
<v Speaker 1>clinic at one of our facilities because the employees have

0:25:49.320 --> 0:25:51.639
<v Speaker 1>complained about having to drive so far for you know,

0:25:51.680 --> 0:25:55.960
<v Speaker 1>basic um medical care you mentioned John Bryant. We work

0:25:56.000 --> 0:25:59.240
<v Speaker 1>closely with Operation Hope to do first personal financial training.

0:25:59.280 --> 0:26:01.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if you're gonna get about ownership and have

0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:04.159
<v Speaker 1>people really have a shot at wealth creation, they're going

0:26:04.200 --> 0:26:06.159
<v Speaker 1>to have to understand what, you know, get some basic

0:26:06.200 --> 0:26:09.080
<v Speaker 1>training on what to do with it um, and that

0:26:09.240 --> 0:26:13.080
<v Speaker 1>ranges from debt repayment to understanding the earned income tax

0:26:13.119 --> 0:26:15.800
<v Speaker 1>credit to you know, how to invest money, you know,

0:26:15.840 --> 0:26:18.560
<v Speaker 1>once they have some wealth. So um. The last part,

0:26:18.640 --> 0:26:21.080
<v Speaker 1>by the way, is our companies also, I think do

0:26:21.119 --> 0:26:24.800
<v Speaker 1>a nice job of engaging with the community. And this

0:26:24.880 --> 0:26:28.160
<v Speaker 1>is all about building pride in the organization, showing employees, hey,

0:26:28.200 --> 0:26:30.560
<v Speaker 1>this is about more than just making money. And so

0:26:30.560 --> 0:26:33.399
<v Speaker 1>we've we've struck a number of really exciting partnerships with

0:26:33.440 --> 0:26:37.280
<v Speaker 1>nonprofits as well. So, Pete, I would be journalistically negligent

0:26:37.320 --> 0:26:39.960
<v Speaker 1>if I didn't ask you about the broader private equity world.

0:26:40.280 --> 0:26:43.920
<v Speaker 1>You guys at KKR have been exceedingly busy. I think

0:26:43.920 --> 0:26:45.920
<v Speaker 1>it's fair to say, putting a lot of money to work,

0:26:45.960 --> 0:26:48.199
<v Speaker 1>doing a lot of deals during a time when the

0:26:48.240 --> 0:26:51.200
<v Speaker 1>world is, to say the least, topsy turvy. What are

0:26:51.240 --> 0:26:54.840
<v Speaker 1>you seeing out there now? Six months into a work

0:26:54.920 --> 0:27:00.600
<v Speaker 1>from home environment where the economy remains a little uncertain.

0:27:00.640 --> 0:27:04.600
<v Speaker 1>The stock market remains pretty resilient today, notwithstanding what are

0:27:04.640 --> 0:27:09.119
<v Speaker 1>you seeing out there? Yeah, we were. We have remained

0:27:09.119 --> 0:27:12.720
<v Speaker 1>active both on the investment side and on the distribution side,

0:27:12.760 --> 0:27:15.120
<v Speaker 1>returning capital to our investors, and we're proud of having

0:27:15.640 --> 0:27:18.440
<v Speaker 1>been able to accomplish both during this this COVID period

0:27:18.440 --> 0:27:20.720
<v Speaker 1>of time. In terms of what we're seeing right now,

0:27:21.080 --> 0:27:24.919
<v Speaker 1>you know, in the economy itself, it's as you would expect.

0:27:24.920 --> 0:27:27.840
<v Speaker 1>There are some things doing well. Um, some aspects of

0:27:27.880 --> 0:27:31.640
<v Speaker 1>retail are actually surprisingly doing quite well. Anything around housing,

0:27:31.680 --> 0:27:34.679
<v Speaker 1>if you look at the exodus from urban areas to

0:27:34.720 --> 0:27:39.240
<v Speaker 1>suburban areas, low interest rates, strong housing prices, anything touching that,

0:27:39.320 --> 0:27:44.040
<v Speaker 1>building products, etcetera doing really well. Anything around travel, leisure, aerospace,

0:27:44.240 --> 0:27:49.600
<v Speaker 1>people making manufacturing aerospace components. Obviously a much tougher environment

0:27:49.680 --> 0:27:52.280
<v Speaker 1>in terms of what we're looking for. We're looking for

0:27:52.359 --> 0:27:56.320
<v Speaker 1>either secular trends and themes we really believe in health

0:27:56.359 --> 0:28:00.280
<v Speaker 1>and wellness, E commerce, etcetera. Or areas that are really

0:28:00.320 --> 0:28:02.800
<v Speaker 1>in the crosshairs of COVID that if you've got a

0:28:02.800 --> 0:28:05.680
<v Speaker 1>ten year horizon, you know you're gonna there's a lot

0:28:05.680 --> 0:28:07.640
<v Speaker 1>of growth from here. Might not recover all the way back,

0:28:07.680 --> 0:28:09.280
<v Speaker 1>but there's a lot of growth from here. So things

0:28:09.359 --> 0:28:13.280
<v Speaker 1>like we invested in US Foods, great business that serves

0:28:13.600 --> 0:28:16.080
<v Speaker 1>restaurants as a distributor. That's something that with the fullness

0:28:16.080 --> 0:28:19.200
<v Speaker 1>of time, is going to come back. And so as

0:28:19.280 --> 0:28:22.440
<v Speaker 1>you look at the end of this year and into

0:28:22.640 --> 0:28:27.280
<v Speaker 1>twenty one, what's the biggest challenge for you as an investor?

0:28:30.680 --> 0:28:32.560
<v Speaker 1>The biggest challenge I would say is just the lack

0:28:32.600 --> 0:28:36.080
<v Speaker 1>of visibility. I mean, everything is changing so quickly, and

0:28:36.080 --> 0:28:38.560
<v Speaker 1>there's so much going on between you know, you've got

0:28:38.600 --> 0:28:42.720
<v Speaker 1>a potential spike and COVID coming, you know this fall,

0:28:42.800 --> 0:28:46.640
<v Speaker 1>you've got the election, You've got trade issues with China.

0:28:46.680 --> 0:28:49.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there's just a little bit. It's coming at

0:28:49.280 --> 0:28:52.080
<v Speaker 1>you so fast it can be hard to separate the

0:28:52.480 --> 0:28:55.120
<v Speaker 1>signal from the noise. I would say that's the biggest issue,

0:28:55.120 --> 0:28:57.680
<v Speaker 1>and investor's got is the amount coming at you is

0:28:57.720 --> 0:29:00.560
<v Speaker 1>a little bit, you know, unprecedented and more to come

0:29:00.640 --> 0:29:04.280
<v Speaker 1>on this program where equity continues to go uh in

0:29:04.560 --> 0:29:10.680
<v Speaker 1>deeper into the organizations you own. Definitely, this is something

0:29:10.760 --> 0:29:15.520
<v Speaker 1>we're continuing to expand experiment with, try and constantly improve.

0:29:15.640 --> 0:29:18.560
<v Speaker 1>You know, we we understand that this is not a

0:29:18.560 --> 0:29:21.280
<v Speaker 1>perfect fit for every sector. You know, if you take

0:29:21.320 --> 0:29:25.120
<v Speaker 1>retail as an example, average employee turnovers ad percent a year.

0:29:25.200 --> 0:29:27.160
<v Speaker 1>If you walk in and start talking about a five

0:29:27.200 --> 0:29:30.400
<v Speaker 1>year business plan, that's not going to be effective. So

0:29:30.400 --> 0:29:32.560
<v Speaker 1>so yes, it's this is here to stay for us.

0:29:32.640 --> 0:29:35.000
<v Speaker 1>We are going to be expanding it and continue to

0:29:35.040 --> 0:29:37.800
<v Speaker 1>experiment with it. But again we're you know, we we

0:29:37.880 --> 0:29:40.680
<v Speaker 1>understand that it's not going to be right for every situation. Alright,

0:29:40.680 --> 0:29:42.520
<v Speaker 1>Pete stavrog is really good to catch up with you,

0:29:42.640 --> 0:29:46.880
<v Speaker 1>cohead of America's Private equity for KKR. A novel solution

0:29:47.200 --> 0:29:52.200
<v Speaker 1>to spreading the compensation and the ownership throughout the economy.

0:29:52.320 --> 0:29:59.840
<v Speaker 1>My thanks to him. Journal. Yeah, but you let me

0:29:59.840 --> 0:30:04.640
<v Speaker 1>do oh no, no, no no, no, home an please, I'll

0:30:04.680 --> 0:30:10.640
<v Speaker 1>do the right vel. Ex I want to drive, just

0:30:10.840 --> 0:30:24.000
<v Speaker 1>drive the question trying. This is the drive to the

0:30:24.000 --> 0:30:28.760
<v Speaker 1>globe Commune. Thanks, we'll drying us down on Bloomberg Radio.

0:30:29.720 --> 0:30:32.120
<v Speaker 1>It is time for the Drive to the close with

0:30:32.200 --> 0:30:34.760
<v Speaker 1>us as Dave dona Vide and he's chief Investment Officer

0:30:34.960 --> 0:30:38.360
<v Speaker 1>of CIBC Private Wealth Management roughly seventy four billion in

0:30:38.400 --> 0:30:41.920
<v Speaker 1>assets under management, on the phone from Baltimore. Hey Dave,

0:30:42.000 --> 0:30:44.920
<v Speaker 1>nice to have you here with Jason and myself. How

0:30:44.960 --> 0:30:48.960
<v Speaker 1>do you explain the selling today? How do you see it? Well,

0:30:49.000 --> 0:30:51.920
<v Speaker 1>I'll tell you it brings back bad memories from the

0:30:51.920 --> 0:30:54.800
<v Speaker 1>COVID bear market of Februarrian March, not just because of

0:30:54.840 --> 0:30:57.320
<v Speaker 1>the market down, but um, you know, we've got about

0:30:58.480 --> 0:31:00.200
<v Speaker 1>of the stocks in the S and P five under

0:31:00.200 --> 0:31:03.080
<v Speaker 1>it her up and it's the old stay at home stocks.

0:31:03.120 --> 0:31:07.240
<v Speaker 1>It's e commerce, it's comfort foods, at home, entertainment, video gaming,

0:31:07.520 --> 0:31:10.120
<v Speaker 1>even testing labs. That's about all that's up. And if

0:31:10.120 --> 0:31:14.040
<v Speaker 1>you look at what's kind of getting crushed today, it's airlines, casinos,

0:31:14.080 --> 0:31:17.480
<v Speaker 1>cruise lines. It's UH again rings very familiar to the

0:31:17.760 --> 0:31:21.800
<v Speaker 1>dark days of Feborrian March, and so in some of

0:31:21.800 --> 0:31:24.920
<v Speaker 1>that obviously emanates from the UH concerns coming out of

0:31:24.920 --> 0:31:27.920
<v Speaker 1>Europe about a resurgence of of COVID nineteen and the

0:31:27.960 --> 0:31:31.479
<v Speaker 1>notion that maybe again what hits there first will we'll

0:31:31.560 --> 0:31:33.400
<v Speaker 1>we'll come here next. Right, a reminder we're not out

0:31:33.400 --> 0:31:35.440
<v Speaker 1>of the woods yet. But having said that, we are

0:31:35.520 --> 0:31:38.960
<v Speaker 1>off our loads of the session, our investors still out

0:31:38.960 --> 0:31:41.680
<v Speaker 1>there thinking, okay, when there's a pullback, it's an opportunity

0:31:41.760 --> 0:31:44.360
<v Speaker 1>for me to get in. I do, I do think

0:31:44.440 --> 0:31:48.040
<v Speaker 1>that there there is definitely a significant you know, by

0:31:48.080 --> 0:31:51.880
<v Speaker 1>the dip constituency out there, and the support behind that

0:31:52.120 --> 0:31:55.360
<v Speaker 1>is liquidity, liquidity, liquidity. Right, there's the usual wall of

0:31:55.360 --> 0:31:57.880
<v Speaker 1>worry in the market, what you know, what to worry about,

0:31:58.400 --> 0:32:01.560
<v Speaker 1>like COVID and the economy and and so on, um,

0:32:01.600 --> 0:32:04.880
<v Speaker 1>but the onslaught of liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve

0:32:04.920 --> 0:32:09.120
<v Speaker 1>another central bank is kind of a constant reason to

0:32:09.880 --> 0:32:13.520
<v Speaker 1>want to look to buy the dips. And so when

0:32:13.640 --> 0:32:18.080
<v Speaker 1>you think about the election, it's forty three days away,

0:32:18.600 --> 0:32:21.440
<v Speaker 1>as we keep reminding people today and we'll probably remind

0:32:21.640 --> 0:32:23.920
<v Speaker 1>people as it gets to forty two and all the

0:32:23.920 --> 0:32:27.760
<v Speaker 1>way down. How much does that figure into your calculus

0:32:27.800 --> 0:32:30.840
<v Speaker 1>here and how much pause does it give you in

0:32:30.960 --> 0:32:35.200
<v Speaker 1>terms of making any big moves. Dave, Yeah, I think that,

0:32:36.080 --> 0:32:39.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe the most important investor trait when you're

0:32:39.120 --> 0:32:44.720
<v Speaker 1>considering marrying election implications to the market, maybe humility, simply

0:32:44.800 --> 0:32:49.480
<v Speaker 1>because it is so difficult to forecast all the variables correctly.

0:32:49.480 --> 0:32:51.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, wh who's going to win the White House,

0:32:51.480 --> 0:32:54.080
<v Speaker 1>who's going to control the Senate, what will the immediate

0:32:54.120 --> 0:32:57.120
<v Speaker 1>market reaction be, which sectors will will be, you know,

0:32:57.200 --> 0:32:59.880
<v Speaker 1>kind of winners and losers. Threading that needle is ext

0:33:00.040 --> 0:33:02.960
<v Speaker 1>really difficult, so we tend not to do a lot

0:33:02.960 --> 0:33:07.160
<v Speaker 1>of positioning around election results. I will say, though, that

0:33:07.360 --> 0:33:12.280
<v Speaker 1>the interplay between this Supreme Court battle and the election,

0:33:12.760 --> 0:33:17.040
<v Speaker 1>I think does ramp up the potential volatility here. And

0:33:17.240 --> 0:33:20.200
<v Speaker 1>that's because I think that the the fight over this

0:33:20.440 --> 0:33:22.600
<v Speaker 1>Supreme Court seat is going to suck all the air

0:33:22.640 --> 0:33:24.400
<v Speaker 1>out of Washington for the rest of the year. And

0:33:24.440 --> 0:33:27.320
<v Speaker 1>I think it's now very unlikely that we see a

0:33:27.360 --> 0:33:31.120
<v Speaker 1>significant fiscal support package. It's just been pushed to the side,

0:33:31.120 --> 0:33:33.560
<v Speaker 1>and and that that is in the short term anyways,

0:33:33.560 --> 0:33:35.480
<v Speaker 1>somewhat troubling to me, because I think the economy needs

0:33:35.520 --> 0:33:38.720
<v Speaker 1>some of that to sustain his momentum through the fourth quarter. Yeah,

0:33:38.760 --> 0:33:42.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's interesting. Every economist we talked to it's

0:33:42.720 --> 0:33:45.640
<v Speaker 1>not a matter of like, well, maybe you can make

0:33:45.680 --> 0:33:49.800
<v Speaker 1>an argument against it. Just about every economist will tell

0:33:49.840 --> 0:33:52.720
<v Speaker 1>you something more needs to happen. And I think we

0:33:52.800 --> 0:33:55.400
<v Speaker 1>also worry, as you said at the top of the conversation,

0:33:55.800 --> 0:33:58.280
<v Speaker 1>about a second wave, and if we see you know,

0:33:58.400 --> 0:34:02.320
<v Speaker 1>furloughs or layoffs or slow down in spending, you know

0:34:02.400 --> 0:34:06.520
<v Speaker 1>that's only going to become more pressing. Yeah, I think

0:34:06.600 --> 0:34:09.400
<v Speaker 1>that's right. There's still an incredible amount of impairment in

0:34:09.400 --> 0:34:11.640
<v Speaker 1>the economy. You just look at the number of of

0:34:11.719 --> 0:34:14.560
<v Speaker 1>unemployed and a trend towards you know, the percentage of

0:34:14.640 --> 0:34:20.080
<v Speaker 1>unemployed essentially being long term unemployed instead of just furloughed.

0:34:20.239 --> 0:34:23.680
<v Speaker 1>And um, you know, we have this remarkable situation now

0:34:23.719 --> 0:34:26.680
<v Speaker 1>where you know, g d P has been clabored, but

0:34:26.800 --> 0:34:30.800
<v Speaker 1>disposable income is still up. That's all because of government support.

0:34:30.880 --> 0:34:33.439
<v Speaker 1>Without that, um, you know, we would we would still

0:34:33.480 --> 0:34:35.920
<v Speaker 1>be in a in a recession. That was what was

0:34:35.960 --> 0:34:38.600
<v Speaker 1>getting worse as opposed to the beginning of a recovery.

0:34:38.640 --> 0:34:40.440
<v Speaker 1>So this is a bit of a going to be

0:34:40.480 --> 0:34:44.520
<v Speaker 1>a bit of a high wire act for the fourth quarter. Okay, yikes,

0:34:44.600 --> 0:34:48.920
<v Speaker 1>So the potential to stay in recession, go back into

0:34:48.960 --> 0:34:52.319
<v Speaker 1>recession I don't know what's the scenario. What are you

0:34:52.400 --> 0:34:54.200
<v Speaker 1>what are the scenarios that you guys are playing out

0:34:54.480 --> 0:34:56.560
<v Speaker 1>at your office. Well, the way I view it is,

0:34:56.600 --> 0:34:59.280
<v Speaker 1>we were not in recession anymore. We're we're in recovery.

0:34:59.320 --> 0:35:02.359
<v Speaker 1>And we'll see that, you know, kind of verified with

0:35:03.840 --> 0:35:07.320
<v Speaker 1>third quarter, big jump in third quarter gdp UM. The

0:35:07.440 --> 0:35:09.600
<v Speaker 1>question is when can we get to expansion? You know,

0:35:09.640 --> 0:35:11.319
<v Speaker 1>when when? When? How long do we have to go

0:35:11.360 --> 0:35:14.040
<v Speaker 1>before we just recover what was lost from COVID nineteen.

0:35:14.080 --> 0:35:17.399
<v Speaker 1>I think that is probably you know, sometime late into

0:35:18.320 --> 0:35:21.120
<v Speaker 1>one and and if things don't go well, you know,

0:35:21.160 --> 0:35:23.920
<v Speaker 1>in the fourth quarter, you know, we're probably looking at

0:35:24.640 --> 0:35:28.400
<v Speaker 1>two before we can even think about um an economic expansion.

0:35:28.480 --> 0:35:29.880
<v Speaker 1>And that leads me to think that some of the

0:35:30.280 --> 0:35:32.840
<v Speaker 1>quick upward revisions that have been having to corporate earnings

0:35:32.840 --> 0:35:35.239
<v Speaker 1>maybe maybe ahead of themselves. Well, the Feds already told

0:35:35.280 --> 0:35:36.840
<v Speaker 1>us right that they're going to keep rates low, and

0:35:36.840 --> 0:35:39.319
<v Speaker 1>of course that can change, but they've said low for

0:35:39.360 --> 0:35:41.279
<v Speaker 1>a long time. I mean, it's just kind of more

0:35:41.320 --> 0:35:44.680
<v Speaker 1>of what we've had, you know, post financial crisis, but

0:35:44.880 --> 0:35:48.680
<v Speaker 1>it just potentially continues for even longer. Yeah, I think

0:35:48.680 --> 0:35:51.120
<v Speaker 1>that's right. I mean you can't ask too much more

0:35:51.160 --> 0:35:53.719
<v Speaker 1>of the Fed in terms of clarity over not just

0:35:53.800 --> 0:35:56.360
<v Speaker 1>the months, but the years. But I think there was

0:35:56.400 --> 0:35:59.600
<v Speaker 1>the assumption that there would be some some fiscal support

0:35:59.680 --> 0:36:02.560
<v Speaker 1>along away here, and that's what's really come into question now. Well,

0:36:02.560 --> 0:36:05.160
<v Speaker 1>it seems like there was that assumption from j. Powell

0:36:05.160 --> 0:36:07.400
<v Speaker 1>and his pals, So you know, they've been sort of

0:36:07.440 --> 0:36:10.520
<v Speaker 1>saying it, whether it's in his testimony or whether it's

0:36:10.560 --> 0:36:13.440
<v Speaker 1>in his statements or his statements to the press and

0:36:13.480 --> 0:36:17.880
<v Speaker 1>his colleagues as they've talked to reporters and given speeches, etcetera.

0:36:18.000 --> 0:36:21.480
<v Speaker 1>All Right, Dave Donavidian, thank you so much, Chief Investment

0:36:21.520 --> 0:36:25.000
<v Speaker 1>Officer for c IBC Private Wealth Management, joining us on

0:36:25.040 --> 0:36:28.040
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Baltimore. Thanks so much for listening to

0:36:28.080 --> 0:36:30.919
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, South Cloud,

0:36:30.960 --> 0:36:33.719
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0:36:33.760 --> 0:36:35.680
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0:36:35.719 --> 0:36:38.440
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