1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,120 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Balance of Power on 7 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington with 8 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 2: eyes on big oil stocks with a who's who of 9 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 2: the oil industry at the White House today. The top 10 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 2: seventeen or so companies are going to be in the 11 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 2: cabinet room. Of course, as Charlie has been mentioning talking 12 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 2: with President Trump about the job ahead in Venezuela, shares 13 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 2: a ex On Mobile up about one percent, same for Chevron. 14 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:52,560 Speaker 2: Valero is down almost four percent. The idea of refining 15 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 2: much more heavy sour crude from Venezuela. 16 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 3: The question is what will be the question? 17 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 2: President Trump has some big asks of these executives who 18 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 2: may or may not feel like there's a big return 19 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:07,400 Speaker 2: on investment in this case, particularly knowing that this project 20 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 2: will likely last years and could outlast this administration. There 21 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 2: are also questions about what the oil companies might be 22 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 2: pursuing today, with CNN reporting that they've been crafting a 23 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 2: plan to present the President before he ever gets to 24 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 2: his own agenda here, coming with conditions that the US 25 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 2: lift more sanctions and provide more supplies necessary to move 26 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 2: the oil either way. As Donald Trump says, we're taking it, 27 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 2: and he made that case again on the Hannity program 28 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 2: last evening on Fox News. 29 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 4: Listen, We're taking billions and billions of dollars worth of oil, 30 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 4: and it'll be hundreds of billions of doll it'll be 31 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:45,720 Speaker 4: trillions of dallas. 32 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:46,839 Speaker 3: We'll be running the oil. 33 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 4: We're going to meet with the biggest oil people in 34 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 4: the world. They're all coming here. At the top fourteen 35 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 4: companies are coming here. They're going to go in, they're 36 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 4: going to rebuild the whole oil infrastructure. They're going to 37 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 4: spend at least one hundred million dollars. 38 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 2: At least one hundred billion dollars. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall is 39 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 2: on the north lawn of the right White House waiting 40 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 2: for their arrival right now. They're about an hour and 41 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 2: a half away based on the White House schedule and 42 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 2: she joins us Now for an update, how's this all 43 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 2: going to work here, Tyler? And will these executives be 44 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 2: seen by the media. 45 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 5: Well, as of now, that meeting is closed to the press, 46 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 5: so we'll end up seeing if it gets to be 47 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 5: opened up. That we had had reporting as we spoke 48 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 5: about last hour, that one of the potential conditions on 49 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 5: the table was to keep this closed door, because we 50 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 5: know that this administration is really pressuring these oil companies 51 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 5: that are looking for buy in from big oil to 52 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 5: advance US interests in Venezuela. And at this point it's 53 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 5: not clear if they're on board, because our own reporting 54 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 5: indicates people familiar with the matter telling us that these 55 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 5: executives have in some cases made the case directly to 56 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 5: the administration that they are weary about the amount of 57 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 5: investment without physical, secure or financial guarantees being on the table. 58 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 5: And as you and I have covered all week, on 59 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 5: balance of hower, President Trump had previously suggested that the 60 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 5: US could subsidize or reimburse these oil companies, but this morning, 61 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 5: the Interior Secretary Doug Bergham told Bloomberg Television that all 62 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 5: of the capital is going to come completely from the 63 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:22,679 Speaker 5: oil companies, suggesting that there would not be US financial support. 64 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 5: Of course, the other big question for these companies has 65 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 5: to do with political stability in the wake of the 66 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 5: US capturing Nicholas Maduro. But to that end, this White 67 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 5: House asserts that the interim Venezuelan government is cooperating with 68 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 5: the US, with President Trump suggesting that they are already 69 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 5: cooperating in terms of giving access to Venezuela as oil infrastructure. 70 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 5: So it is going to be something that we watch 71 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 5: really closely how this meeting ends up shaking out, because 72 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 5: it is very clear that these oil companies need to 73 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 5: see some firmer guarantees from this White House. 74 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 2: Interesting here, Tyler, do we know anything about what's going 75 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 2: to be the venue for this meeting beyond the cabinet room? 76 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 2: When you have the biggest executives from the oil industry 77 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: come over, you don't serve subway sandwiches, right, I. 78 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 5: Don't think that that is likely to be on the menu. 79 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 5: But of course, Joe, this is a very high stakes meeting. 80 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 5: You're talking about the heads of the biggest oil companies Exxon, Conico, 81 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 5: Philip Chevron, Continental Resources, and then those counterparts in the 82 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 5: administration that have really been leaving this charge, including the 83 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 5: US Energy Secretary Christopher Wright, who's going to be joining 84 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 5: us later tonight on balance of power, and then the 85 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 5: Interior Secretary at Doug Bergham. But most importantly, of course, 86 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 5: it's going to be President Trump in that room, as 87 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 5: he has made it absolutely clear that he wants to 88 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 5: see this support from oil companies to advance US interest, Right, Joe. 89 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 5: We often hear the President talk about this need to 90 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 5: get Venezuela on more solid economic footing before we can 91 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 5: talk about the US setting up potential date for a 92 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 5: democratic transition. 93 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 2: Bloomberg watching the correspondent Tyler Kendall with us from the 94 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 2: White House. 95 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 3: Tyler, let us know when they show up. 96 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 2: We'll be curious to see if they come on down 97 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 2: the driveway or may the back door. There's no appetite 98 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 2: at the moment, at least it seems for subsidizing this 99 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 2: whole project, as Tyler just mentioned, and it's something that 100 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 2: we ask Byron Donald's about. The Republican congressman from Florida 101 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 2: clearly has no appetite. 102 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 6: Listen, I'm not really interested in subsidies per se. I 103 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 6: think the oil markets themselves will provide all of the 104 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 6: ability for companies if they go back in to rebuild 105 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 6: that infrastructure, to be able to make money. I don't 106 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 6: think it's much more about subsidies. I think it's much 107 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 6: more about a stable government in Venezuela, stable security apparatus. 108 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 3: If those things are in place, there'll be plenty. 109 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 6: Of opportunity, whether it's oil companies or any other company 110 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:41,600 Speaker 6: to go and invest in Venezuela. 111 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 3: Kind of like what Tyler just said. 112 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:46,720 Speaker 2: Now, as we try to seize on both ends of 113 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 2: Pennsylvania Avenue, there's no voice more appropriate than Mark Short, 114 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 2: the Republican strategist, joins us right now, former White House 115 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 2: Director of Legislative Affairs and former chief of staff Vice 116 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 2: President Mike Pence. 117 00:05:57,320 --> 00:05:59,559 Speaker 3: Mark, I hope your years going well. Welcome back. Happy 118 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 3: to you. Thanks Bloomberg. 119 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 2: Of course, your thoughts on the involvement of Congress here, 120 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 2: the appetite that they might have seems similar to the 121 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,840 Speaker 2: appetite we're told some of these oil executives might have 122 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 2: of investing in this project. 123 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 7: I can't imagine it'd be much interested in Congress to 124 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 7: use taxpayer dollars to subsidize this, but I'm not so 125 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 7: convinced that there won't be executive opportunities for subsidiation. Like so, 126 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 7: when I hear the commentary from Burgram that that's not 127 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 7: off the table, I wouldn't necessarily say it's off the 128 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 7: table until the president says it's off the table. And 129 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 7: I think everything you laid out is exactly right that 130 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 7: these executives are going to want to know there's some 131 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 7: sort of assurance of stability in the country before making 132 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 7: massive investments at shareholder risk. They need to know that 133 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 7: risk is somewhat mediated. But I think that there's for 134 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,840 Speaker 7: multiple these companies significant amounts of dollars the World Bank 135 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 7: has ruled is owed to them, and I think the 136 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 7: president can have a way of ensuring they get those 137 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 7: resources if they make commitments to invest. 138 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 2: Okay, interesting, how's this meeting going to go? When you're 139 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 2: in the room with Donald Trump? You've been in a 140 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 2: lot of meetings with this president. Door closes, guys like 141 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 2: me are thrown out of the room. Is there an 142 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 2: agenda that's set or are we just kind of riffing 143 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 2: because there are people who know each other and have relationships. 144 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 7: I think there's probably an agenda that Secretary Wright, Secretary 145 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 7: program have of what's the path forward. I think that 146 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 7: the president, though, prefers to have these meetings more relationship oriented, 147 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 7: and so they'll be needing to keep the agenda on track. 148 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 7: But I think he's going to take it where he 149 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 7: kind of makes But also I also think that there's 150 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 7: it would be incredibly unlikely to me that cameras are 151 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 7: not brought into this meeting, and so I think. 152 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 3: You'll get to see it for yourself. 153 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 7: Left you to see it for yourself in a little bit, 154 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 7: because the president relish is the optics of him being 155 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 7: surrounded by some of the largest CEOs of companies. They 156 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 7: are global companies, and so it's hard for me to 157 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 7: think that there won't be visual You'll get to see 158 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 7: the meeting yourself. 159 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, well see, but mark that down, producer James. We 160 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 2: might have a pool spray to be covered later on here. 161 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 2: On balance of power, interesting watching the stocks exon mobiles 162 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 2: up a little bit, Chevron's up about one and a 163 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 2: half percent, Refiners like Valero are a lower. How should 164 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 2: investors be thinking about this with the president once again 165 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 2: kind of emerging as the chairman of the board. 166 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 7: Well again, I think there's a couple of things for Chevron, 167 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 7: for Exon, there are dollars significant, particularly Chevron and Knico Phillips, 168 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 7: billions of dollars. 169 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 3: The World Bank has said that. 170 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 7: You are owed because Venezuela sees these assets from you. 171 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 7: For Exon, it's a small maut, but a silver a billion. Yeah, 172 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 7: so there's a lot of dollars that I would imagine 173 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 7: that there's a higher prospect that that gets paid out. 174 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 7: So probably for shareholders as a notion that hey, this 175 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 7: is going to make a significant impact on their balance sheets. 176 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 7: I think that for the president, he has got a 177 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 7: continued commitment to trying to lower gas prices, and that's 178 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 7: to his credit. I mean, oil prices are down significantly. 179 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 7: Energy prices are down significantly since he came in. I 180 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:05,439 Speaker 7: think that they still have other prices that are much 181 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 7: higher because of his trade agenda. But he wants, I think, 182 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 7: to offset the trade agenda by continuing to lower energy 183 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 7: prices as much as he can. 184 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 3: But obviously, as you know, the. 185 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 7: Time you get any of this oil out of the 186 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 7: ground into the marketplace, it's going to be many years. 187 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 2: Yes, right, So we're going to be talking with the 188 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 2: Energy Secretary a little bit later on today at the 189 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 2: conclusion of this meeting. Should we expect takeaways today or 190 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 2: is this the start of for longer conversation. 191 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 7: I would imagine there'll be some takeaways about what a 192 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 7: path could they want to take. I don't think there'll 193 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:35,839 Speaker 7: be something finalized today, but I would imagine Chris can 194 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 7: give you a sense of here was the conversation, here's 195 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 7: the commitment that these CEOs have, and here's what the 196 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:43,320 Speaker 7: present offered them. 197 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 3: Got it. 198 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 2: I'm going to keep your former Legislative Affairs hat on 199 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 2: here because yesterday was a doozy on Capitol Hill and 200 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:51,559 Speaker 2: I'm really deeply curious to hear your thoughts. 201 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 3: We went up to the Capital for the vote on. 202 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:58,680 Speaker 2: ACA subsidies and talk to two Republicans who crossed over 203 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 2: Republican Nick Looda, the congressman from Long Island from New York, 204 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 2: and Republican Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania in that order. 205 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 3: Listen to what they told us after voting yes. 206 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 8: A lot of our constituents rely on these subsidies and 207 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 8: doing nothing we knew was not an option. 208 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 3: Yep. 209 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 8: So we wanted to and we explored several different options 210 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 8: before Christmas. Unfortunately, a number of them were blocked by 211 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:23,319 Speaker 8: our Rules Committee, and this was the only option available 212 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 8: to us, was to pass this three year extension, which 213 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 8: we understand is dead and arrival and the Senate since. 214 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 9: Running for office in twenty twenty four on the campaign trail, 215 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,680 Speaker 9: the biggest issue that we heard about was affordability and 216 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,559 Speaker 9: cost of living issues, and so that has not changed 217 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 9: after four years of Biden inflation, people were suffering. Our 218 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 9: efforts in the House are keeping this conversation alive. And 219 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 9: what is going on in the Senate is they are 220 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 9: looking at plans very similar to what we had already 221 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 9: proposed here in the House, and so hopefully we'll get 222 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 9: to one of those resolutions. 223 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:54,960 Speaker 3: Really interesting to hear from both of them. 224 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 2: Following that vote, seventeen Republicans crossed over on the AC 225 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 2: We'll see where that goes. 226 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:03,319 Speaker 3: I realized that's its own story. 227 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 2: But five Republican Senators voted for a War Powers Act. 228 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 2: The President shamed them on social media. What's going on here? 229 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 7: Well, let's try and break them apart, because I think 230 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,839 Speaker 7: there are two separate issues. I think that on Obamacare 231 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,960 Speaker 7: and government run healthcare. You know, Democrats fifteen years ago 232 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 7: promised that it would lower costs and promise you like 233 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 7: your doctor, you keep them. There's a lot of broken promises. 234 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 7: Healthcare costs are astronomical today. The challenge for Republicans is 235 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 7: they have not beforred an alternative, and so now you're 236 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 7: in a box where Democrats say we want to continue 237 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 7: these subsidies. Costs of living is higher, affordability prices is higher. 238 00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 7: And so for a lot of Republicans in swing districts 239 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 7: looking at the midterms, they want to be on record 240 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 7: voting for things that keep prices down, even if it's counterintuitive. 241 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 7: The Republicans would be voting to continue government run healthcare 242 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:52,200 Speaker 7: in these subsidies. So that's the dilemma for many of 243 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 7: these Republicans. And I think it's added because the president. 244 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 7: I think the President wants the substies extended. He's concerned 245 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 7: about the affordability issue, and so that's why you saw 246 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 7: on his remarks earlier this week. So it's gotten less coverage, 247 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 7: but the President saying to House Republicans, you need to 248 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:12,679 Speaker 7: have greater flexibility on the government taxpayer's funding abortion. It 249 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 7: was a remarkable statement for a Republican president to say. 250 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:18,959 Speaker 7: And I think what he's basically singing is he knows 251 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 7: that's a trip wire for a lot of Republicans, and 252 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 7: he's asking them to go along in essence with this. 253 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 7: So I don't think this bill is going to pass 254 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 7: in the Senate, but I do think what you're going 255 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:29,839 Speaker 7: to see is that the Senate is going to use 256 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 7: that to map another pathway forward, and I think ultimately 257 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 7: you're going to see these substies extended. I think that's 258 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 7: terrible policy, terrible policy, but I think politically, politically, I 259 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 7: think that's what Gord of. 260 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 2: Because these two guys want to get re elected, probably 261 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 2: more than they're worried about being yelled at by Donald Trump. 262 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 7: Again, I think they are better ways the Republicans should 263 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 7: be talking about. Here's what's happened since we passed Obamacare, 264 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 7: here's the cost of how much healthcare has increased, and 265 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 7: here's what we're going to have his alternative. But they're 266 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 7: not in an absence of that. They're going to be 267 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 7: forced to vote on whether you just continue the subsidies. 268 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 7: And I think a lot will interesting on the War 269 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 7: Powers Act. I think as a toty summer argument, what 270 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 7: I don't understand is, you know, I think frankly, with 271 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 7: all things is out there, it would have gotten less 272 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 7: attention except for the president attacking those five. Like why 273 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 7: he chose to do that is it is more of 274 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 7: a posture vote that's really not in pinging what he's 275 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 7: doing in the moment, and so I think a wiser 276 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 7: course would be to ignore it. 277 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 3: It's from his position, But to go. 278 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,559 Speaker 7: After those five only elevates into the national conversation. 279 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,319 Speaker 2: We're just showing the five on the screen if you're 280 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 2: with us on Bloomberg TV. That said, would it have 281 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 2: been your job in the first administration to get on 282 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 2: the phone and wrap knuckles on a day like that? 283 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 2: How does the beyond going on truth social how does 284 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 2: the White House handle a jail break? 285 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 7: Well, it is it is Leslie Affairs director's job to 286 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 7: make sure they're aware of where votes are and who's 287 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 7: going where. There's probably less influence you have as a staffer, 288 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 7: I see, but by learning the president, the president can 289 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 7: make calls to these people say hey, look, I don't 290 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:58,880 Speaker 7: want to see your vote going against me on this. 291 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 3: So there's a way to get ahead of it that. 292 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 7: I don't know if it happened or not, but I 293 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 7: think that look This president is usually more engaged than 294 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 7: most presidents. I remember when I came into the role, 295 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:11,959 Speaker 7: I actually met with my predecessor who had served in 296 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 7: the Obama administration. She gave me wonderful advice about doing 297 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 7: the job. But it was remarkably different because I think 298 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 7: Obama was gifted in so many ways, but he got 299 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 7: kind of detached from Congress. This president has always been 300 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 7: very engaged with members, and so it's not as if 301 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 7: there's a lack of communication, and it's probably something that 302 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 7: you should have the communication before, as opposed to tweeting 303 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 7: about after. 304 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 2: Great, where's your gut? On government funding? It looks like 305 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 2: we might have a couple of minibuses, maybe a short 306 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 2: term cr You're not worried about a shutdown, are you? 307 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 7: I think it's very unlikely we'll have another shutdown. I 308 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 7: think there's been progress on the appropriations front, and I 309 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 7: think that candidly for Democrats, they got everything they wanted 310 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 7: out of the last shutdown, which I think has been 311 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 7: countered the way these usually worming. 312 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 3: There's no subsidies to show. 313 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 7: For it well, but politically, politically, politically, they gained a 314 00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 7: lo and I still think they're going to get their 315 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 7: substantes at the end of the day. And I think traditionally, 316 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 7: when Republicans have shut down the government and saying we're 317 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 7: going to leverage that. 318 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 3: For some of the policy, we've always lost. 319 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 7: And it seems I think the Democrats got the leverage 320 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 7: and the political win too. 321 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 2: As Donald Trump's former Legislative Affairs director, what do you 322 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 2: think when you hear people say that he's the actual. 323 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 3: Speaker of the House. Well, I'm sure you see it. 324 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 2: More nuanced than that, but is there some truth to it? 325 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 3: There is. 326 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 7: I think what the President has been very effective at 327 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 7: is whether you like it or you don't, he's been 328 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 7: far more willing to engage in primaries in a way 329 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 7: that strikes fear amongst the House Republicans, and so they're 330 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 7: more willing to walk in lockstep. Traditionally, a Republican or 331 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 7: Democrat presidents looked at like, I'm not going to criticize 332 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 7: my own team because the downside is you could get 333 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 7: replaced by a Democrat. But this president's looked at it 334 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 7: to say, I'm going to keep my team in step 335 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 7: by them understanding, and I'd be willing to primary them. 336 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 7: And so he's had far more influence as a president 337 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 7: over this Congress than traditionally a president does of. 338 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 3: His own team. 339 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 2: Maybe you set the new model. Market's good to see you. 340 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 2: We appreciate the insights, says thanks. 341 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 3: Of course. 342 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 2: Is Mark Short with us live here in Washington. Former 343 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 2: White House Director Legislative Affairs, former chief of staff to 344 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 2: Vice President Mike Pence. Stay with us on Balance of Power. 345 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this. 346 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 347 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 348 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 349 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 350 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 351 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 2: Yesterday was a significant one here in Washington if you 352 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 2: were following along with what happened on Capitol Hill. And 353 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 2: I know some of this stuff gets esoteric, but there 354 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 2: were a couple of bills that were voted on that 355 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 2: the President did not want to see past, and he 356 00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 2: even took the truth social at one point to shame 357 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 2: the five Republicans who crossed the aisle that was on 358 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 2: the War Powers vote that took place in the Senate, 359 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:09,679 Speaker 2: five Republicans voting to check the President in Venezuela and 360 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,320 Speaker 2: actually limit his activities there as the commander in chief. 361 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,159 Speaker 2: The other big one had to do with healthcare, and 362 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 2: if you were with us on the late edition of 363 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 2: Balance of Power, we joined you live from Capitol Hill 364 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 2: as that vote was taking place. Nine Republicans jumped across 365 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 2: the aisle on the procedural vote. Seventeen showed up for 366 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 2: the real vote last night on the floor. Pretty remarkable. 367 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 2: This was not the compromise bill that we've been talking about. 368 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 2: This is a clean three year extension. This was the 369 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:42,239 Speaker 2: Haaking Jeffreys bill. Seventeen Republicans, knowing we've already gone over 370 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 2: the cliff, this would revive those enhanced Obamacare subsidies that 371 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 2: bring us back to the COVID era, sat down with 372 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 2: two Republicans who actually voted for this as part of 373 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 2: our program last evening, Republican Nick Lolota of New York 374 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 2: and Republican Ryan McKenzie of Pennsylvania. 375 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 8: Listen, a lot of our constituents rely on these subsidies, 376 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 8: and doing nothing we knew was not an option. 377 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:06,360 Speaker 9: Yep. 378 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 8: So we wanted to and we explored several different options 379 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 8: before Christmas. Unfortunately a number of them were blocked by 380 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 8: our Rules Committee, and this was the only option available 381 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,120 Speaker 8: to us, was to pass this three year extension, which 382 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 8: we understand is dead and arrival in the Senate. 383 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 9: Since running for office in twenty twenty four, on the 384 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 9: campaign trail, the biggest issue that we heard about was 385 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 9: affordability and cost of living issues, and so that has 386 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 9: not changed after four years of Biden inflation, people were suffering. 387 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 9: Our efforts in the House are keeping this conversation alive. 388 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:37,880 Speaker 9: And what is going on in the Senate is they 389 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 9: are looking at plans very similar to what we had 390 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 9: already proposed here in the House, and so hopefully we'll 391 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 9: get to one of those resolutions. 392 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:50,919 Speaker 2: Just a dose of the psychology from two Republicans voting 393 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 2: with Democrats last evening, generating the headline from Jonathan Toamori's 394 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 2: peace on Bloomberg Government A day of defiance? 395 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,159 Speaker 3: What will come of this? Simile our political panel for 396 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 3: their take. 397 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor Rick Davis is back with US Republican 398 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 2: strategistic partner at Stone Court Capital, joined today by Democratic 399 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 2: strategist RhI Sidiki, former Senior aide to Speaker Pelosi, founder 400 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 2: CEO Bellweather Government Affairs. It's great to have both of 401 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 2: you with us. Rick, Are we making too much of this? 402 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,159 Speaker 2: How important are these defections? 403 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 10: No, I think it's fair to say that this is 404 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 10: a new movement in the House and Senate. You haven't 405 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 10: seen any real pushback in the year that Trump has 406 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 10: been president by his own members in Congress. And so 407 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 10: the fact that you had not only these two events, 408 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 10: one in the House and one on the Senate, but 409 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 10: you also had the Senate pass unanimously the rule to 410 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 10: put together a plaque and put it on the front 411 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 10: of the Capital honoring the efforts by people to defend 412 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 10: the Capitol on January sixth. So that was a direct 413 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,640 Speaker 10: review to what the White House posted itself. So yeah, 414 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:58,880 Speaker 10: I think there's a many rebellion going on, but it's 415 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 10: also acting in their self interests. Republicans in the House 416 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 10: want to get re elected and the Speaker's not making 417 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 10: it any easier. I think Congressman let Lotus said it right. 418 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,919 Speaker 10: All the compromise bills were killed in the Rules Committee 419 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,119 Speaker 10: by conservatives, so the only option they had to do 420 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 10: anything on healthcare was to side with the Democrats, and 421 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 10: I think that's going to continue until they get a 422 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 10: bill that they can pass and get signed by President Trump. 423 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 3: Really interesting are she? 424 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 2: How would you describe this moment that we're and it 425 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:29,880 Speaker 2: feels like the tectonic plates might be shifting, albeit mildly. 426 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:31,919 Speaker 11: Yeah, it's a little overstated. 427 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 12: And I and I and you know, you look at 428 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 12: whether it's Venezuela, where you know there are more questions 429 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 12: and answers, the answers keep on changing. So from that perspective, 430 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 12: I think this was just a signal to the White 431 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 12: House too that they needed to kind of get things together. 432 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 12: And then similarly on the ACA, it keeps the issue alive. 433 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 12: But as you recall, we've talked many times, the Republican 434 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 12: mantra was reopen the government and will negotiate. Those negotiations 435 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 12: never happened to this day. Those negotiations are at the 436 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 12: rank and file level. So from that perspective, I think 437 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:08,439 Speaker 12: it was a heartening day. It actually kept issue alive, 438 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 12: It allows the Senate some room on the ACA. But 439 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 12: I would say the one issue that has played the 440 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 12: ACA debate from the beginning is this ideological component on 441 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:25,199 Speaker 12: this complete hatred of the ACA, so and that has 442 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 12: taken over rather than looking at what is best for 443 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 12: constituents all of these premiums. So I think at the 444 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 12: end of the day, we'll see how this plays out. 445 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 12: But this ideological spend to this is problematic. 446 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 2: You have the High Amendment and things could get a 447 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,919 Speaker 2: little bit more complicated. Rick Sarah Chamberlain from Main Street 448 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 2: Partnership was on the program last evening saying that some moderates, 449 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,640 Speaker 2: some Republican moderates, could fall off if the High Amendment 450 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 2: is strengthened in this case. How sensitive is this issue 451 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 2: in your mind when it comes to potentially derailing a bill. 452 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 10: Yeah, derailed a lot of bills in the past, so 453 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 10: it does have an impact. And I would say, don't 454 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,200 Speaker 10: fear the rank and file. Most deals in the Senate, 455 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,360 Speaker 10: for instance, don't come out of leadership. They come out 456 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 10: of the rank and file. And that's where the new 457 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 10: deal is being cooked up for ACA relief. And I 458 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 10: have heard consistently that there are a number of Republicans 459 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:23,480 Speaker 10: that actually are thinking exactly the opposite, which is water 460 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,400 Speaker 10: down the Height Amendment a little bit. And they kind 461 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,199 Speaker 10: of got some high cover from Donald Trump, which was 462 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 10: unexpected and so there seems to be motivation to do that, 463 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:35,159 Speaker 10: and so I do think there's going to be a 464 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,000 Speaker 10: solution to it. It's not going to be what passing 465 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 10: the House, but the Senate typically jams the House with 466 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 10: its solutions, and I think that's exactly what's going to 467 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:44,160 Speaker 10: happen here. 468 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 2: So, Rick, are you still looking at the Bernie Marino 469 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 2: Bill as the most likely final product or something similar 470 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 2: to it. 471 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think what we see coming out of the 472 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 10: Senate's going to be what Dune has been talking about 473 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 10: coming out of his rank and file, and that is 474 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 10: a two year extension but with modifications on eligibility and 475 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 10: a water down hide. So I mean, I think if 476 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,959 Speaker 10: you get those kinds of things in, it's actually an 477 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 10: improvement of the ACA program because these were designed to 478 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,880 Speaker 10: expire by now these credits, and Democrats and Republicans both 479 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,679 Speaker 10: voted for that. So to say otherwise I think is 480 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 10: misrepresenting the ACA. 481 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,639 Speaker 2: That's something you can stomach, at least the form in 482 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 2: which this is taking. 483 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 11: I think the details matter here. But Rick is absolutely right. 484 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,640 Speaker 12: There are some significant and I think really well intentioned 485 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 12: bipartisan discussions amongst the senators. 486 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 11: But there are some bridges that may be too far. 487 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 12: And you know, this high debate is interesting, and that's 488 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 12: why I was going back to the ideology because the 489 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 12: ACA already has pretty strong language in there, and Republicans 490 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,639 Speaker 12: have even conceded that, and you have these outside groups 491 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 12: taking over. But Rick is right, like I think that 492 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 12: there is opportunity and hope, but the window is closing 493 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:55,719 Speaker 12: really fast. 494 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 2: Well, that window could be extended in a literal sense 495 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 2: when it came to open enrollment. If it also extended 496 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,320 Speaker 2: enrollment to the middle of March, is that enough to 497 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 2: give people an opportunity to get. 498 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 3: Back on the rules. 499 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 12: It's not ideal, and you dropped off, Yeah, it's not ideal. 500 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 12: And you look at the tax cuts. They know the 501 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,199 Speaker 12: in the reconcilation bill. They did extend them already, so 502 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,160 Speaker 12: way in advance. But it is this is where we are, 503 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 12: so I think the extending that would be helpful. 504 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 2: Talk to us about warpowers, Rick, this was the other 505 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:25,879 Speaker 2: big one, And you mentioned that January sixth, PLAC. I'm 506 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,719 Speaker 2: glad you did, because that actually was pretty significant yesterday 507 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,959 Speaker 2: when you see five Republicans jump on war power as 508 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 2: the President went right on truth social and said shame 509 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 2: on them. They should not be re elected. Will there 510 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:40,879 Speaker 2: be blowback beyond that, Yeah, I. 511 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,480 Speaker 3: Think this is a continuing story, right. 512 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,720 Speaker 10: I mean, we don't know how the Venezuela situation is 513 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 10: going to end, and we don't know if there are 514 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 10: going to be other situations like Venezuela where the president 515 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 10: uses force to achieve his policy goals, which is clearly 516 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:01,320 Speaker 10: what has occurred here in Caracas. And so I think 517 00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 10: Republicans are very nervous by the free talk that Donald 518 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:07,119 Speaker 10: Trump has started about putting boots on the ground and 519 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,440 Speaker 10: in essence occupying Venezuela. And I think that's what gave 520 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,320 Speaker 10: impetus to this vote. I'm not sure you could have 521 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 10: gotten these Republicans without the President talking about putting boots 522 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 10: on the ground. So the President's getting what he kind 523 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 10: of is dishing up, which is I'm going to raise 524 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,399 Speaker 10: the rhetoric, and maybe he's doing that to get what 525 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 10: he wants out of Vezuela, but is having a net 526 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 10: effect on Republicans in the United States Senate saying hey, 527 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 10: wait a minute, you were not giving you a free 528 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 10: option here, and that's what you saw yesterday. 529 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 3: And so President doesn't like that. 530 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,439 Speaker 10: He told New York Times reporters that the only limits 531 00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 10: on him is his own mind, and I guess that 532 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 10: includes five that's right, the United States Republican senators. 533 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 2: His own morality is, he said, we were just showing 534 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 2: the fitful five Collins, Murkowski, Paul Hawley, and Young. The 535 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:58,439 Speaker 2: President says they should be ashamed of themselves, or Republicans 536 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 2: should be ashamed of these senators. He says, despite their stupidity, 537 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:07,360 Speaker 2: the War Powers Act is unconstitutional, totally violating Article two 538 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:11,159 Speaker 2: of the Constitution, as all presidents and Departments of Justice 539 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 2: have determined before me. The Vice President or she then 540 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 2: said at the podium in the briefing room that the 541 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:21,160 Speaker 2: War Powers Act was fake and unconstitutional. 542 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 3: What do you make of that language. 543 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,199 Speaker 12: I think it's a running trend where a separation of 544 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:30,919 Speaker 12: powers is non existence to this administration, and you've seen that, 545 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,720 Speaker 12: and there has been this lock step approaching Congress, and 546 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,680 Speaker 12: now we're seeing a little bit of breaking a break 547 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 12: in the ice on that. 548 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:38,680 Speaker 11: So that's positive. 549 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,840 Speaker 12: But the separation of powers issue is a big one, 550 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:44,960 Speaker 12: and I think it's going to play really significantly in 551 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,920 Speaker 12: the midterms in terms of should Congress be a rubber 552 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:49,080 Speaker 12: stamp to the administration. 553 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:52,280 Speaker 2: What do you make of that, writing, Rick, the War 554 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:57,200 Speaker 2: Powers Act is unconstitutional, violating Article two, as all presidents 555 00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,159 Speaker 2: and their Departments of Justice have determined before me. 556 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,399 Speaker 10: Yeah, this is the strongest power grab against Congress I 557 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 10: think we've seen since the inauguration. 558 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 3: And it's not surprising. 559 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 10: I mean, this unitary executive theory that the president is 560 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:14,480 Speaker 10: trying to implement. 561 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:17,639 Speaker 3: Kind of generates that kind of debate. 562 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,800 Speaker 10: But at some point in time, the Congress or the 563 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:25,000 Speaker 10: President needs to have this clarified by the Supreme Court 564 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 10: if this is going to actually affect the president's ability 565 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:31,639 Speaker 10: to go around the world and commit US troops to 566 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 10: combat situations, which is what he's done in Venezuela. So 567 00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 10: I think this could wake the Congress up. Clearly, five 568 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,320 Speaker 10: Republicans think it's important enough to cross that line, and 569 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,120 Speaker 10: I would say if the rhetoric continues along the lines 570 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 10: that did yesterday, that may actually create even more Republicans 571 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 10: who want to make sure they retain the rights that 572 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 10: the Congress indicates that they have related to war power. 573 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,880 Speaker 2: Sounds like a fairly significant day to look back on 574 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,359 Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill. As the White House also tried to 575 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 2: make its case and share details for the first time 576 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 2: for the big ballroom project. You guys hear about this 577 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 2: eighty nine thousand square feet, but the ballroom itself, I guess, 578 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 2: will be contained in this larger building at twenty two 579 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 2: thousand square feet room for one thousand. Archie, the ballroom 580 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 2: will include the first Lady's offices and a movie theater. 581 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 2: He's moving the first Lady out of the white House, 582 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:27,480 Speaker 2: out of the East wing. 583 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,679 Speaker 12: Yes, I think that's probably an issue between him and 584 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,280 Speaker 12: the first Lady, so I yeah, but I think it's 585 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 12: another example of details matter, right. 586 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,400 Speaker 2: I thought they'd move the press office of the pressroom 587 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 2: over their first Rick, what do you think the first 588 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 2: Lady's going to have to go to work in the ballroom? 589 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 3: What do you make of this? 590 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 10: Well, I suspect it'll be very nice space for the 591 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 10: first Lady in the ballroom. 592 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 3: But I agree with Archie. 593 00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 10: I think that they got to work that out amongst themselves. 594 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 3: I would say more as the cup I'm on this issue, 595 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 3: no doubt. 596 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 2: They're also putting a second story on the west wing Colonnade, 597 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 2: so it's even across the board. This is going to 598 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,400 Speaker 2: be quite the look. Rick Davis Arshi Sidiki. Stay with 599 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 2: us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming 600 00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 2: up after this. 601 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 602 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 603 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 604 00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 605 00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,920 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven 606 00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 1: thirty on What is a Job's Day? 607 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,920 Speaker 2: Any other time, this would have probably been our lead 608 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 2: story because it was the first complete jobs report we've 609 00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:50,400 Speaker 2: had in a while following the whole government shutdown, the 610 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,040 Speaker 2: longest in American history. Will be interesting to hear from 611 00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 2: Rick Reider this morning on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Interestingly, 612 00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 2: who said to be on the shortlist to be the 613 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 2: next FED chair? Yet there's reporting Scott Besson said he 614 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,840 Speaker 2: hasn't actually had his interview with President Trump yet, who 615 00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 2: claims he already made up his mind. The read on 616 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 2: the jobs report from reader of course, chief investment officer 617 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:15,160 Speaker 2: Fixed Income at Black Rocks, seeing a below forecast payrolls 618 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 2: number and also a lower than expected unemployment rate. 619 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 13: Here's what he said, we're talking about fifty thousand jobs, 620 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,120 Speaker 13: and then there was revisioned down over seventy thousand jobs. 621 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,720 Speaker 13: If you take we're growing now if you go to 622 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,360 Speaker 13: the last six month moving average, if you take out 623 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 13: healthcare jobs, we're actually running negative jobs for the last 624 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 13: six months away from healthcare, which is non cyclical, not 625 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 13: interest rate sensitive. Actually, if you go back eight months, 626 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 13: the total net jobs is negative two hundred and thirteen 627 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 13: thousand jobs, none of healthcare. What I think is going 628 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:49,240 Speaker 13: on is we have a productivity revolution of extraordinary. 629 00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:53,840 Speaker 2: Proportion, fascinating but also very difficult to quantify. And it's 630 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 2: where we start our conversation with Heather Bouchet used to 631 00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,400 Speaker 2: serve of course, on the Council of Economic Advisors and 632 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 2: the Biden why House when we spoke frequently chief economist 633 00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 2: for the invest In America Cabinet. 634 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:06,760 Speaker 3: Heather is great to see you, welcome back. 635 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,960 Speaker 2: How would you describe this job's report and the impact 636 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:10,800 Speaker 2: of productivity? 637 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 14: Well, this is a I mean, I would describe it 638 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 14: as a lackluster report. Right, we haven't the fifty thousand 639 00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 14: jobs gained last month. We've seen over the past year, 640 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,080 Speaker 14: over twenty twenty five, forty nine thousand jobs gained on 641 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:27,400 Speaker 14: average each month. It's less than a third of the 642 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 14: pace that we saw in twenty twenty four. We've seen 643 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 14: the pace of wage gains, although a little bit faster 644 00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 14: than it was in recent months, is actually slower than 645 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 14: it was in twenty twenty three or twenty twenty four, 646 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,760 Speaker 14: and that is with ongoing higher prices than American consumers 647 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 14: are facing. So I think from the worker perspective, this 648 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 14: isn't a great report. It's not a terrible report. It 649 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 14: doesn't know, it was in line with expectations. It doesn't 650 00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,120 Speaker 14: signal that we're in a recession or something like that, 651 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 14: but it certainly doesn't bode well for millions of workers 652 00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 14: who are looking for work and for the labor market 653 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,320 Speaker 14: more general. And to that point about healthcare, I think, 654 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 14: you know, this is a big story I think in 655 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 14: the labor market right now that you know, net jobs 656 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,640 Speaker 14: for twenty twenty five really were all about healthcare. And 657 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:15,000 Speaker 14: yet the administration, the Trump administration, has made these huge 658 00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 14: cuts to the healthcare sector through the tax legislation passed 659 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 14: in the spring, the cuts to medicate the cuts now 660 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,760 Speaker 14: through the cuts to the Affordable Care Act subsidies. And 661 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 14: so I think that opens up real big questions about 662 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,680 Speaker 14: what healthcare looks like as we go into the new year. 663 00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,800 Speaker 2: How are you looking at this through the prism of 664 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,800 Speaker 2: the Fed. The worries about a soft job market led 665 00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 2: the market to believe another cut was coming. 666 00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:43,960 Speaker 3: But when you see the unemployment rate dropping like this, 667 00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:44,720 Speaker 3: what does it tell you? 668 00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,240 Speaker 14: Well, I think this is a tough report for the 669 00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 14: Federal Reserve, you know, and I think all indications are 670 00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 14: that they are probably going to pause, but you know, 671 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 14: obviously we'll have to wait and see. You know, from 672 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:03,320 Speaker 14: their perspective, price remain higher than there preferred two percent rate, 673 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,240 Speaker 14: and you only saw unemployment come down. 674 00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:06,600 Speaker 13: A little bit. 675 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,720 Speaker 14: I think, you know, we're also seeing that the layoffs 676 00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:12,640 Speaker 14: that were happening across the federal government appear to have abated, 677 00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:15,320 Speaker 14: so there does seem to be some stability in the 678 00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:17,560 Speaker 14: labor market. Again, you know, it's not like we saw 679 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,120 Speaker 14: massive job losses this month. We're just seeing this tepid, 680 00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,040 Speaker 14: you know, pace of growth at about fifty thousand a month. 681 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 14: So I think that that will probably lead them to 682 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,000 Speaker 14: stop weight for the next round of data. And of 683 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 14: course they're also still struggling with the fact that we 684 00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,240 Speaker 14: didn't have data for a few months because of the 685 00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 14: government shutdown, So I think they probably want to be 686 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,960 Speaker 14: extra careful that we are getting good data and might 687 00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 14: want to wait to see what the benchmark revisions look 688 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:45,400 Speaker 14: like that are coming at the beginning of the year 689 00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:46,640 Speaker 14: to the labor market data. 690 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:49,560 Speaker 2: As we spend time with Heather Bouchet, I want to 691 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:53,080 Speaker 2: mention so breaking news as the President is posting on 692 00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,080 Speaker 2: social media ahead of his meeting with Big Oil. 693 00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 3: He's got Columbia on his mind. 694 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,880 Speaker 2: He says, he's looking forward to having a meeting with 695 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:04,520 Speaker 2: Gustavo Petro, the President of Colombia, in the White House 696 00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,200 Speaker 2: first week of February. So we've got something on the 697 00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:08,320 Speaker 2: calendar here, it seems. 698 00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:09,279 Speaker 3: He says. 699 00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,880 Speaker 2: I'm sure it'll work out very well for Columbia and 700 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,960 Speaker 2: the USA, but cocaine and other drugs must be stopped. 701 00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:15,640 Speaker 3: From coming into the US. 702 00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,799 Speaker 2: Thank you for your attention to this matter, you know, Heather, 703 00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:21,360 Speaker 2: I'm curious your thoughts on this meeting today at the 704 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,239 Speaker 2: White House with Big Oil in the room and a 705 00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,759 Speaker 2: big ask from the president here. We've heard from the 706 00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:30,720 Speaker 2: administration that this effort to start investing in a broken 707 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:36,480 Speaker 2: oil infrastructure in Venezuela is America first and will help 708 00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,880 Speaker 2: our economy by lowering oil prices. 709 00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,200 Speaker 3: Is that your expectation. Well, here's the thing. 710 00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,320 Speaker 14: You know, from the perspective of American consumers, gas prices 711 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,880 Speaker 14: have come down quite a bit, and any benefit that 712 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:50,880 Speaker 14: they're going to see at the pump is going to 713 00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:54,399 Speaker 14: take a long time to come to fruition. And we've 714 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,880 Speaker 14: also heard the President say that he wants a massive 715 00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:01,520 Speaker 14: increase in what the American people pay for defense, for 716 00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:03,800 Speaker 14: all of the work that's going to be required to 717 00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 14: maintain that presence in Venezuela and the other actions that 718 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,879 Speaker 14: he's taking around the world. The President has also said 719 00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,239 Speaker 14: that he wants the American people to subsidize some of 720 00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,600 Speaker 14: these investments that he wants the oil companies to make. 721 00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:16,240 Speaker 14: Those are big question marks. 722 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:17,840 Speaker 3: Where does this end? Where does this go? 723 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:21,520 Speaker 14: So I have a lot of questions about whether or 724 00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,919 Speaker 14: not this will actually benefit the American people. And of course, 725 00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:28,000 Speaker 14: this is alongside all the steps that this administration has 726 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:31,480 Speaker 14: taken to make electricity prices more expensive in the here 727 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,840 Speaker 14: and now. You know, all of the cutbacks that he 728 00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,440 Speaker 14: did to the investments that were happening across the country 729 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,840 Speaker 14: and electricity in the grid and in in lowering families 730 00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:44,360 Speaker 14: energy prices. You know, he's got a very confusing message 731 00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,760 Speaker 14: on energy right now. And you know, as your opening 732 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:51,239 Speaker 14: segment talked about, this is a decade long investment, and 733 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,920 Speaker 14: I think we have to wonder whether or not future 734 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,360 Speaker 14: administrations will be committed to the same kind of you know, 735 00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:01,880 Speaker 14: imperialist tendencies that this president is. So if I were 736 00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,360 Speaker 14: the American taxpayer, which of course I am an American taxpayer, 737 00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:06,640 Speaker 14: I have a lot of questions for how this meeting 738 00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,840 Speaker 14: goes today and what the President expects the American people 739 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:11,000 Speaker 14: to pay in the here and now. 740 00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,279 Speaker 3: Yeah, shareholders do too. Heather, it's good to see you. 741 00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,040 Speaker 2: Thank you for coming back on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 742 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:21,319 Speaker 2: Heather Bouchet with us on balance of Power, President back 743 00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,520 Speaker 2: on truth Socially, he's looking forward to the meeting here. 744 00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,120 Speaker 2: He just posted once again, the largest oil companies in 745 00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:27,680 Speaker 2: the world are coming to the White House at two 746 00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:29,640 Speaker 2: thirty pm. He's right, a little more than a half 747 00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:33,440 Speaker 2: hour away. Everybody wants to be there. It's too bad 748 00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:37,120 Speaker 2: the ballroom hasn't completed, because if it were, it would 749 00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:40,480 Speaker 2: be packed. He says, we apologize to those oil companies. 750 00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:44,359 Speaker 2: We cannot take today, but Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, 751 00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,520 Speaker 2: Secretary Interior Doug Bergham will see them over the next week. 752 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,560 Speaker 2: We did learn yesterday they didn't reach for the bigger ballroom. 753 00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:53,680 Speaker 2: I guess it's going to be twenty two thousand square 754 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,680 Speaker 2: feet thousand, but of course they haven't built that yet. 755 00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,040 Speaker 2: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington, and we thank you for 756 00:36:58,120 --> 00:36:59,880 Speaker 2: being with us here on balance of power. As we 757 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,680 Speaker 2: turned to our closer, I was so glad to hear 758 00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:04,680 Speaker 2: that Nancy was coming in because she's up with a 759 00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,279 Speaker 2: really interesting profile that I want you to find on 760 00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:10,399 Speaker 2: the terminal or online. Remember when they used to call 761 00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:16,520 Speaker 2: Karl Rove Bush's brain is Stephen Miller Trump's brain. 762 00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 3: Now I'm going to get Nancy Cook in trouble. 763 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,840 Speaker 2: She's with us to talk about this great story that 764 00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,759 Speaker 2: I mentioned Steven Miller in the policy shaping Trump's next 765 00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:28,160 Speaker 2: three years. Bloomberg Senior National political Correspondent's great to see you. 766 00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:29,759 Speaker 3: Stephen Miller Trump's brain. 767 00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,800 Speaker 15: Well, interestingly, a bunch of Trump people call him the 768 00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:33,520 Speaker 15: prime minister. 769 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:34,680 Speaker 3: The prime minister. 770 00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,440 Speaker 2: Yes, that's a different wrinkle because he has found himself, 771 00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:43,080 Speaker 2: as you describe here, with a much broader portfolio. 772 00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:43,919 Speaker 3: In this second term. 773 00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:47,000 Speaker 2: How important is he compared to the actual chief of staff, 774 00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,920 Speaker 2: for instance, in running policy in the agenda in this administration. 775 00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,560 Speaker 15: I think he's just as important as Susie Wiles. And 776 00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,040 Speaker 15: what I uncovered in the reporting is he's actually really 777 00:37:56,120 --> 00:38:00,400 Speaker 15: functioning like a cabinet secretary in this particular term. People 778 00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:03,759 Speaker 15: so often associate him just with immigration from the first term, 779 00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:07,480 Speaker 15: and there's good reason for that. He was key behind 780 00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:11,400 Speaker 15: the expansion of ice, you know, mass deportations, a lot 781 00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:14,920 Speaker 15: of the immigration policy. However, this term he is playing 782 00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:18,440 Speaker 15: a huge role in the strategy on Venezuela for instance, 783 00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:23,000 Speaker 15: and what is happening there, foreign policy, national security, you know, 784 00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,960 Speaker 15: going after elite universities and pulling their federal funding. I 785 00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:32,000 Speaker 15: mean just every single area of policy, even economic ones 786 00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,680 Speaker 15: where we don't think of him as playing, like trade 787 00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,200 Speaker 15: and tariffs, he is playing a key role. He is 788 00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:40,840 Speaker 15: really the main person for whom policy is running in 789 00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:43,400 Speaker 15: this term. And so the piece just looks at at 790 00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,000 Speaker 15: how he operates in the West wing. 791 00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,240 Speaker 3: Is he feared. He's completely internally. 792 00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:51,000 Speaker 15: He's very much feared internally, he is a very large staff. 793 00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:52,920 Speaker 15: And one of the other interesting things I learned in 794 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,680 Speaker 15: the course of reporting is he has allies kind of 795 00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,359 Speaker 15: in all these different crevices of the government, which really 796 00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:02,000 Speaker 15: just helps him sercize power in all these different places. 797 00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:05,279 Speaker 15: He has allies at the Department of Justice, Department of 798 00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:09,080 Speaker 15: Homeland Security, you know, the National Security Council, White House 799 00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:12,480 Speaker 15: Counsel's Office, sort of all these pockets that really help him, 800 00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:15,440 Speaker 15: you know, pull the levers of power. He's quite good 801 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:15,640 Speaker 15: at that. 802 00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:19,400 Speaker 2: There's some reporting recently on the way he conducts conference calls. 803 00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,239 Speaker 3: You don't want to cross the boss. If his name 804 00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:23,839 Speaker 3: is Stephen Miller, you don't. 805 00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:26,400 Speaker 15: And a key part of his role is not just 806 00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,440 Speaker 15: coming up with the policy, but is also executing it. 807 00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:31,680 Speaker 15: One person that I talked to for the story told 808 00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:34,680 Speaker 15: me about on things like energy policy, for instance, he'll 809 00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:37,200 Speaker 15: convene a call in his office, you know, with all 810 00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:39,680 Speaker 15: the people who are involved in energy policies from all 811 00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:43,040 Speaker 15: the different agencies and basically bark orders at them, you know, 812 00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,840 Speaker 15: to make sure that they're doing what they're supposed to do. 813 00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:51,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned Venezuela his remarks about America's right to 814 00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:55,919 Speaker 2: take that land we're striking. Just in the last couple 815 00:39:55,960 --> 00:40:01,480 Speaker 2: of days here, his view of the world order, it seems, 816 00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:04,840 Speaker 2: does help to inform the President's view absolutely. 817 00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,080 Speaker 15: I mean, I think that part of the reason that 818 00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,640 Speaker 15: he is so powerful is because he's very loyal to Trump, 819 00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:11,920 Speaker 15: but also part of it is because he is the 820 00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,600 Speaker 15: person in the White House who is most aligned with 821 00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:18,560 Speaker 15: Trump's gut on issues, and he and Secretary of Saint 822 00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,400 Speaker 15: Marco Rubio are really the two key people inside the 823 00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:25,120 Speaker 15: administration moving ahead with the Venezuela planning. I would say 824 00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:27,839 Speaker 15: Rubio's sort of maybe the more diplomatic of the two, 825 00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,800 Speaker 15: the one they send out on Sunday shows. But Stephen 826 00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:34,120 Speaker 15: is the President's in on this and is really driving 827 00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:35,800 Speaker 15: the policyow. 828 00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:38,480 Speaker 2: You referenced his interview on CNN in the piece where 829 00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:40,719 Speaker 2: he referred to our right. You can talk all you 830 00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,319 Speaker 2: want about international niceties and everything else, but we live 831 00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,440 Speaker 2: in a world. In the real world, he says, that 832 00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:49,400 Speaker 2: is governed by strength, by force, that is governed by power. 833 00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:53,480 Speaker 2: These are the iron laws of the world. Is you 834 00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,600 Speaker 2: covered the first Trump administration? Is that the same Stephen Miller? 835 00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:58,120 Speaker 11: Yes, he is the same. 836 00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,440 Speaker 15: I have covered him for almost a decade. He is 837 00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:02,560 Speaker 15: the same. He has not changed. He does these like 838 00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:07,480 Speaker 15: Randy you know, media appearances. He has very strongly held beliefs. 839 00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:09,719 Speaker 15: I think the difference is is he just has so 840 00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,520 Speaker 15: much power now interesting and you know, really, there's only 841 00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,120 Speaker 15: two aids I can think of who have lasted this 842 00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:19,520 Speaker 15: long continuously in the Trump organization. One is Dan Scavino, 843 00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,040 Speaker 15: who is Trump's like former longtime you know golf caddie 844 00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:25,759 Speaker 15: who then did social media in the first administration, and 845 00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,480 Speaker 15: who's now the director of personnel. And Steven Miller. 846 00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:30,960 Speaker 3: Well, isn't that amazing? Does he like getting calls from 847 00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:32,880 Speaker 3: Nancy Cook? Does he deal with reporters? 848 00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:33,480 Speaker 12: Uh? 849 00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:34,080 Speaker 3: No comment? 850 00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:38,359 Speaker 2: Okay, find the story on the terminal or online really 851 00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,759 Speaker 2: interesting and great reporting as always because it came from 852 00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:45,760 Speaker 2: the great Nancy Cook. Thanks for listening to the Balance 853 00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,400 Speaker 2: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, 854 00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,759 Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and 855 00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:54,640 Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from 856 00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:58,080 Speaker 3: Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.