1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg PI L Podcast on iTunes, 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. Perhaps there's a newsletter 7 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:33,159 Speaker 1: going out into the halls of Monte di Paski, the 8 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 1: oldest bank in the world, at least on record from Sienna, 9 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: and the European Central Bank has denied Monte di pasks 10 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,160 Speaker 1: bid for more time in order to raise capital. Well, 11 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: what happens next and what does this mean? Well, it 12 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 1: means we turned to Yamen owner On. Yealman is our 13 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: senior writer for Banking and Finance, and he is also 14 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: the author of a wonderful book entitled Zombie Banks. Yeaman, 15 00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: it's a pleasure to have you. Great to be here. 16 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: You uh, you seem to coin the term zombie banks, 17 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: or at least you've made it a little bit more 18 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: high profile. Shall we say? It is Monte di Paski, 19 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:14,199 Speaker 1: the Mountain of piety zombie bank. It definitely is it's 20 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 1: the oldest bank and it's also a zombie, so maybe 21 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 1: it was due to die a long time ago and didn't. 22 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: But Italy has has um the worst of zombie banks 23 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: right now because um it, It's economy has been stuck 24 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:34,479 Speaker 1: in recessions and slow growth for decades. That means bad 25 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: loans have piled up and up and up, and they 26 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: haven't and and some banks are just never They're losing 27 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 1: money constantly, not making money. Their balance sheets are in 28 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: horrible shape, and and they should die and and and 29 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 1: also another big problem is that they're over bank I 30 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: mean they have there are too many bank branches in 31 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 1: every street of Sienna or in every street of major 32 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: Italian city, and thus they can't they're has over competition. 33 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 1: They cannot make money. So so there are too many 34 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: dead banks, which also hurts the good banks. I mean, 35 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 1: some of Italy's top banks are actually in great shape, 36 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: but they get hurt by the same zombie banks surrounding 37 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: them because the message cannot tell which is a zombie 38 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,239 Speaker 1: which is not. So this is a major zombie bank 39 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:23,360 Speaker 1: problem issue and things are really coming to head. So 40 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 1: let's see if they actually fix it. Although I you know, 41 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: I I worry about stop gag solutions that that constantly 42 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:33,119 Speaker 1: are done around the world. Um. Well, hold on, let's 43 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: talk about Monte de Paski. The fact that the ECB 44 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 1: rejected their request for more time to prepare a five 45 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: billion euro capital increase. This is this is an odd 46 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: move to me. Why wouldn't the ECP give it to 47 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: them and then allow them to avoid uh an Italian 48 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: government bailout, which seems to be a problematic approach from 49 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:57,800 Speaker 1: from a legal perspective given the current guidelines. Um, you 50 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: know the we we have a little bit reporting from 51 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: Italy on on why the e CP rejected it, which 52 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 1: is basically they weren't sure if the market conditions would improve. 53 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: If they're giving more time, what if it actually got worse. Um. 54 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, the e c 55 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 1: B has given them and the and the regulators have 56 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 1: given them so much time. It's I mean, Monty Paskey, 57 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:24,119 Speaker 1: problems have been going on for years. It's not last 58 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 1: weekend's problem, it's not last month's problem. Um. So they've 59 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 1: had so much time to fix this, and and they've 60 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 1: constantly put off the solutions. And not only that, every 61 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 1: time they raised these capital I mean, they've had three 62 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: or three capital or two or three capital increases and 63 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: they just burned through them because they're losing money constantly. 64 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 1: So let's say the e CP is trying to push 65 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: them to the edge, push them to a more concrete solution. 66 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 1: What is the path forward at this point? Um, I 67 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 1: mean there are multiple options, but you know, basically what 68 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 1: they've been trying to avoid with the government of matter Ramsey, 69 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 1: which is on its way out because he resigned a 70 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 1: few days ago. Um, what there he's been trying to 71 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 1: avoid is is UM burning junior um bondholders UM, almost 72 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: half of which are are depositors in the bank. So 73 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: little guys, small business owners, regular depositors u uhh, who 74 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:25,359 Speaker 1: had junior debt in the bank and and they would 75 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: be wiped out because the European rules require some sort 76 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 1: of a bail in of junior creditors before the government 77 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: can also help bail out. So before a bailout happens, 78 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: that bailon had to happen. So he was trying to 79 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: avoid that. But now that that government is on its 80 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 1: way out, UM, probably there will be a caretaker government 81 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 1: which might not worry as much about these things. That 82 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: so so I think that that's what might happen. There 83 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 1: might be bail in and bail out at the same time. 84 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: Junior creditors become shareholders, or they lose some of their 85 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: bond face value at completely UM and there's some kind 86 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 1: of recapitalization that the government also takes part in contributes 87 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: UM and that will save the day for now. I 88 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 1: don't know how how long it's gonna last, because you know, 89 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:14,719 Speaker 1: one of their biggest plans is to sell some of 90 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: the bad debt, but it's still some. They still have 91 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: so much bad debt, and they're not going to be 92 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 1: good look going forward either. Wasn't there a plan put forth, 93 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 1: I believe, for JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs to come 94 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 1: in and in some way ring fence a lot of 95 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 1: the bad loans and put them into a separate entity. 96 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 1: Right they were they were trying to sell off the 97 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 1: worst of the bad loans, the so frenzy, as they 98 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 1: call it, an Italian um and and um we're using 99 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: some private share you know, credit and government guarantees, etcetera. UM. 100 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: But I did a study a couple of months ago 101 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 1: on that even when they do that, it's about half 102 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: of the bad debt. But there's still so much bad 103 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 1: that and and and with those ratios, they'd be still 104 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 1: triple the levels of bad that in in the European Union, 105 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 1: and double the bad that rates in then Italy, which 106 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: has a bad that ratio problem. So three d and 107 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: sixty billion euros of bad loans on the Italian banks, 108 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:27,799 Speaker 1: that is a lot of money. Let's turn our attention 109 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: now to gaming and our nation's capital. Here to tell 110 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: us more, Jim Muran. He is the chairman and the 111 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 1: chief executive of MGM Resorts International. Jim ur and thank 112 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: you very much for being with us. Well, thank you 113 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 1: for having me. All Right, so you're opening a one 114 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: point four billion dollar property. It's the MGM National Harbor 115 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: Casino and Resort. It's just outside our nation's capital. And 116 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: you said that this is property. It has a gambling 117 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: floor bigger than the White House, and it has an 118 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 1: art collection that includes a welded collage by Bob Dylan, 119 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 1: the recipient of the Nobel Prize for Literature. Tell us 120 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 1: about this project, and uh, and what makes it so different? Well, 121 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:08,600 Speaker 1: it's been a journey of four years. It's uh perfectly 122 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:11,520 Speaker 1: located on the banks of the Potoma eight mile from 123 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: the capitol. Uh, reviewing as I sit here the Washington 124 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: Monument as you speak, and right across Old Town on 125 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: over the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. Free airport service this area 126 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: as you know. So we have a tremendous international interests 127 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 1: of tourists to come to the Washington, DC and Metro 128 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: Atlantic area. We've built something here that I believe it's 129 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 1: truly unique, the first integrated resort in a large metropolitan 130 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 1: market in the United States. And yes, we have a 131 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 1: stunning art collection. Uh. We spent millions of dollars on 132 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: bringing some of the world's greatest artists and local artists 133 00:07:56,840 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: together as well as internationally acclaimed chef such as jos 134 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 1: Andreas and Market sam Ustin and the Potago Brothers, and 135 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:10,920 Speaker 1: a tremendous amount of entertainment. Next week we have Boys 136 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: the Men, and then Lionel Richie and Bruno Mars Share 137 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: and Earthlin and Fire and Duran Durant and uh. You know, 138 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 1: it's like relentless amount of a listeners. Um, we really 139 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: wanted to wow the market, and early indicators are that 140 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 1: we have. Jim, how important is it to MGM to 141 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:38,080 Speaker 1: diversify away from Las Vegas and Macau. I mean just 142 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 1: today we saw, you know, rumors that Macau was going 143 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 1: to limit a t M withdrawals from mainland China, which 144 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 1: sent shares of gaming companies, including MGMs down. Uh. They 145 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 1: since rebounded. Is as sort of the rumor was confirmed 146 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: as being somewhat less important. But but how important is 147 00:08:56,120 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: it to DIVERSEFY away from Macau? Well, the vertifications always 148 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: always a positive if you go into markets that are 149 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 1: large where your market share can grow and be defended, 150 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: and you see a future. Um, and so we we don't. 151 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:19,199 Speaker 1: We don't like diversification for divertification's sake. There there there's 152 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:22,680 Speaker 1: gaming in fully different states in the United States. We're 153 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 1: in very few of them. Um. We only want to 154 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: be in markets where we believe our non gaming, our 155 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: entertainment UH DNA can bereing UH bring an incremental competitive advantage. 156 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,679 Speaker 1: So if you look at our portfolio, yes, we dominate 157 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: in Las Vegas. We have the market there with properties 158 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 1: like Bellagio and MGM, vandel A Bay and Aria, but 159 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: we also have the most profitable luxury resort on adult coasts. 160 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 1: But Revige the most profitable casino in Detroit, the most 161 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: profitable casino in Atlantic City for data and now here 162 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,720 Speaker 1: in our nation's capital. This is a going to be 163 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: very successful resourts. The idea you can integrate these resorts together, 164 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 1: create synergy amongst them, you'll be able to diversify your 165 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 1: cash flows, grow your business. And that's why I was 166 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 1: so excited about this one. This one is uh. I 167 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:18,959 Speaker 1: got to tell you, by the way, if it just 168 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: didn't work out, my wife would be mad at me. 169 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,560 Speaker 1: She's from Maryland, and uh, she said, leave it on 170 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: the field. Jim and I think we have here. What 171 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: if you could just give us a little perspective on 172 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:33,439 Speaker 1: the gaming industry, because I know that you joined the 173 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 1: company I think it was. You've seen it through tough times, restructuring, 174 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: a reorganization of financing in order to keep the business afloat. 175 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 1: Then you had the whole issue with the Las Vegas 176 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 1: City Center of property with Dubai World. Tell us the 177 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 1: state of the gaming industry and what's working and what's 178 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:56,440 Speaker 1: not working. So yes, I've been around a while because 179 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 1: I've been there since then, and I've covered this industry 180 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: since nineteen before when I was on Law Street. So 181 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 1: I could say there's been a tremendous change. This was 182 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: a very property centric, developer centric industry in the eighties 183 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 1: and nineties, it was fairly fragmented. UM you had very 184 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 1: uneven levels of operation and quality of resorts, and then 185 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,599 Speaker 1: we went through a corportization of the gaming industry. A 186 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 1: lot of M and A activity occurred in the eighties 187 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 1: and nineties, early part of two thousands, and then you 188 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 1: had the recession, which punished UM the economy in the 189 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: US and particularly damaged Las Vegas. And post that period 190 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: we've seen a remarkable recovery and entire sector, but also 191 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 1: a very very big change in public perception and gaming. 192 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 1: It's it's now at all time high in terms of 193 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 1: the perception. Folks either enjoy themselves or have no issue 194 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 1: with others to do so. It's more in stream. There 195 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:06,960 Speaker 1: are two million American jobs in this industry. Uh. The 196 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: the industry's self is growing, but not everyone is doing 197 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 1: equally well. And I think when you consider this industry 198 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 1: like any other, quality counts. And that's why you've seen 199 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 1: bankruptcies of properties in Atlantic City and other properties in 200 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 1: the middle of the country that have not done as 201 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 1: well because there was under investment early on, under investment 202 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 1: an ongoing basis, and the consumers are becoming increasingly uh, 203 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: discerning and demanding. Um So, the industry today is doing well. 204 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 1: We benefit from a growing economy. MGM is doing quite 205 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 1: a bit better than the industry at large, but we're 206 00:12:49,160 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 1: all doing better. I want to learn more about President 207 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: elect Donald Trump's plan for energy, specifically with respect to 208 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: environmentally conscious energy sources. I want to bring Katherine trey Wick, 209 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 1: energy policy reporter for Bloomberg News, who's coming to us 210 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 1: from Washington. Katherine, you co authored a story that is 211 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 1: tremendously interesting today. Trump team's memo hints at broad shacope 212 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 1: of US energy policy. UM, I'm trying to sort of 213 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: square this article, which talks about how the president elect 214 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 1: is trying to sort of maintain some of uh President 215 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 1: Barack Obama's climate a gender or at least the nuclear 216 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 1: power plants, while also including some people who have been 217 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 1: known to be climate change deniers in his cabinet. Can 218 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 1: you talk a little bit about the story? Sure? So, 219 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: we obtained a document from sources at the Energy Department 220 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 1: which lists sixty five questions of the transition team gave 221 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 1: to Energy Department staff off basically just trying to UM 222 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 1: get a sense of what they needed to know to 223 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: make the transition go smoothly. But they were also a 224 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: lot of very specific questions about, as you mentioned, nuclear plants, 225 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:16,079 Speaker 1: what can be done to UM save at risk plants 226 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 1: that aren't competitive amid low gas prices UM, as well 227 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: as asking for lists of every staff member and contractor 228 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 1: who participated in UN climate talks, who worked on crafting 229 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 1: climate policy for Barack Obama's administration UM, and also which 230 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 1: energy department departments were most essential to meeting Barack Obama's 231 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 1: climate agenda. Well, so, Catherine, one thing that UM sort 232 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: of still get stuck out to me. So nuclear power 233 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 1: plants are known to be a particularly waste free type 234 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 1: of energy, a particularly UM considered to be more environmentally friendly. Correct, Yes, 235 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: they are a zero carbon emission source. So the idea 236 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: that President elect Trump's team is asking specific questions about 237 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 1: how to keep some of these plants running would suggest 238 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 1: that they are looking at more environmentally conscious, conscious sources 239 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 1: of energy now, I think. So it is a little 240 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 1: bit of a departure from the Obama administration in that 241 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: the Clean Power Plan, which was his landmark climate regulation, UH, 242 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 1: didn't really do anything for nuclear plants and didn't adequately 243 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 1: value the carbon free contributions of nuclear plants. So I 244 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 1: think that it's fair to say that folks on the 245 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 1: Trump team view helping nuclear as a departure from past policy. 246 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 1: Even though helping nuclear isn't it does contribute to our 247 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: goals of reducing our carbon footprint. Catherine, you you mentioned 248 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 1: that as part of the President alex transition team requests, 249 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: they wanted to know the names of employees of the 250 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: Department of Energy who attended various United Nations climate meetings. Correct? 251 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 1: Is that normal operating procedure to ask for specific names 252 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: of people? And are these people civil servants? In other words, 253 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: they are career employees, they are UM their career employees 254 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 1: as well as contractors. The bulk of Department of Energy 255 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 1: staff are made up of contractors. Um it is it 256 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 1: is definitely normal to ask such questions just to make 257 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 1: sure that transition moves smoothly. But I will say that 258 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: sources within the Energy Department that we spoke to were 259 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: alarmed by these requests and that there was a fear 260 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: that um maybe they would be targeted UM for their 261 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: role in helping to craft climate policy. It's worth mentioning 262 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 1: that someone close to the Trump transition team told us 263 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 1: that those fears were unfounded, that this was more of 264 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 1: an issue of transparency and an effort to let Republican 265 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 1: lawmakers who have been asking for this information for years, 266 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:08,399 Speaker 1: um finally get the information that they've been looking for. Wait. So, 267 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,119 Speaker 1: in other words, Republican lawmakers have been asking for the 268 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 1: specific people on this team, the names of them, and 269 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,120 Speaker 1: they haven't been delivered until now. They've been asking, yes, 270 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 1: for more transparency around who crafted these policies, the meetings, 271 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,160 Speaker 1: who was involved, That's that sort of thing. I cannot 272 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,160 Speaker 1: say that, um, there has there has been a specific 273 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 1: request for the names of all staff and contractors who 274 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: ever attended any of these meetings, that specific part It 275 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 1: could be near campup, Pops. I was just looking at 276 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: Delta shares that are up almost fifty percent since June 277 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:56,120 Speaker 1: and the United h Airlines United Continental up more than 278 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,959 Speaker 1: eighty percent. Yeah, that would have been the trade, wouldn't 279 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 1: it by the end of June, and then you'd be 280 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 1: happy Today, Well, we're going to find out if our 281 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 1: our next guest bought until in June four. Frank Holme 282 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 1: CEO and chief investment officer at US Global Investors um Frank, 283 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 1: you have an e t F US Global Jets e 284 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: t F, which is the only dedicated airline industry related 285 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 1: to E t F on the market. So do you 286 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 1: think that this rally is just getting started or do 287 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 1: you think that we're kind of going to hit a 288 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: plateau here? Well, I think it's got tremendous opportunity for website. 289 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 1: In fact, I think back at that period of time, 290 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 1: I was on this radio show and we talked about it. 291 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,400 Speaker 1: So those people who are listening, uh and bought into 292 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 1: that was so cheap. And when I try to explain 293 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 1: to people back then, is that you could buy American 294 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: airlines at five times earnings with a return on investor capital. 295 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 1: And and I think that over time was taken place 296 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,240 Speaker 1: with Warren Buffett is that return to investor capital is 297 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 1: the most important factor for picking stocks. And he didn't 298 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,680 Speaker 1: trust the leadership that they would destroy that capital. That's 299 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: happened before. That's totally different now. And another important factor 300 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 1: for stock screens was called shareholder yield, and that is 301 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 1: dividends paid stock buy backs and reducing debt. If you 302 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 1: looked at the out industries in the SMP five, that industry, 303 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:23,679 Speaker 1: the industry with the highest shareholder yield is the airlines Franco. 304 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 1: What if you could just offer a little story or 305 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: an anecdote about how you came to create jets because 306 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,679 Speaker 1: you have a background as really an expert in the 307 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:35,159 Speaker 1: world of commodities, and obviously jets do use fuel, so 308 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,760 Speaker 1: that's a commodity. But you've got a background. You know 309 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,200 Speaker 1: a lot about the gold mining industry, a lot about 310 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,400 Speaker 1: the commodities in business. How did you come to put 311 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 1: together jets? Well, it's called yours Global, and I'm traveling 312 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: all the time, and I have millions of miles in 313 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: all these airlines, and I noticed that all of a 314 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 1: sudden my options had dropped by say to fly to 315 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 1: New York or go here and go there, And the 316 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 1: prices of my tickets started to escalate. And I had 317 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:04,679 Speaker 1: a look at travel costs and I said, well, is 318 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: there any t F. I've got to getting this et 319 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,160 Speaker 1: F business, and is there any t F? There's no, 320 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 1: there's no product for that. There was one that's shut down, 321 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: but there was really nothing there. So I went out 322 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: and said, what's the biggest inverse relationship? And its energy 323 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:22,120 Speaker 1: prices and energy prices fall, uh than these stocks take 324 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 1: off with profit margin. And that's why I created It's 325 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,439 Speaker 1: so it came from personal experience. It wasn't as if 326 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 1: you were, you know, plugging numbers into a computer or uh, 327 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 1: you know, going out and finding what everybody would want. 328 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 1: It was your own personal experience. Well except that you 329 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:39,639 Speaker 1: said something that was really compelling to me, which is, 330 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 1: you know, you wanted to get into the e t 331 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,160 Speaker 1: F business. And this has sort of been a theme 332 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,360 Speaker 1: that we have heard from our asset managers across the board. 333 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,760 Speaker 1: You just wrote a column about this from about Deutsche 334 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 1: Bank offering a lower fee e t F. So I 335 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 1: guess I'm curious about yet. So it started last year, correct? Correct? 336 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 1: And um, it still hasn't climbed to that sort of 337 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 1: key hundred million dollar asset mark. What's the challenge for 338 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: you with fundraising for an et F? A new one? Well, 339 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 1: actually is one of the best launches because it quickly 340 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: went to fifty million dollars. Uh. And what I found 341 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 1: on the travels was that everyone would quote that wanted 342 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 1: to be negative on the industry was Warren Buffett. Warren 343 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: Buffett said the fastest way to lose your money is 344 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 1: put a million dollars in, you lose it in the 345 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 1: airline's industry, and it was such a negative. He has 346 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 1: such a powerful force of people reluctant to go in 347 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 1: the industry. Now that he's changed his tune, because the 348 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,159 Speaker 1: CEOs are buying back their stock, increasing their dividend and 349 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,680 Speaker 1: UH and the bearers to entry are very high. It's 350 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 1: it's next to impossible to create a new airport, so 351 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 1: it's a moat stock. So now that Warren Buffett is 352 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 1: more positive on airline stocks, have you noticed a surge 353 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 1: of investor interests? Absolutely, we had to create the other day. 354 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,680 Speaker 1: That's new money coming in. And I feel that the 355 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,400 Speaker 1: factors that we said, if if you look at the 356 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 1: industrial category at which which airline shows up in, and 357 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 1: if you looked at h transportations such as trains and trucks, 358 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 1: they traded fifteen to eighteen times earnings, best trade at 359 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 1: six returns on investor capital. They are four times greater 360 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,920 Speaker 1: than trains and trucks. So this is the most compelling 361 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 1: industry and two million people fly day America. The index 362 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:29,440 Speaker 1: that you use in order to create the actual exchange 363 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,640 Speaker 1: traded fund how did you come to select that? What's 364 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 1: called a smart beta one and two. I didn't realize 365 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,479 Speaker 1: the two, But the smart beta one is that we 366 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 1: went and did all these thousands of hours of looking 367 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 1: at what factors are the best to deal with the crisis. 368 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 1: The airlines went through they went through bankruptcy, they came 369 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,199 Speaker 1: out of it. Why does Southwest not go through it? 370 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 1: What were their their financial factors that helped pick those stocks? 371 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 1: And so then we did. We created five factors and 372 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 1: that's how we picked them. Then we basically played what's 373 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 1: called Prado's law. And the stocks are American UH and 374 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 1: United Continental, Delta State West Americans and they dominated, but 375 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 1: the smaller names are foreign. So seventy of the names 376 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,360 Speaker 1: are actually foreign capped that one. So it's a very 377 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 1: efficient way of capturing global growth. So now the industry 378 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: is expected to make UH. The industry globally is gonna 379 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 1: do with seven forty billion and revenue the whole world, 380 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: and they're going to make about thirty six billion dollars 381 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 1: in the world. America's eighteen billion of it. You know, 382 00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 1: one thing that still sticks out my mind is there 383 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 1: still is this race for lower cost airlines and sort 384 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 1: of a race to the bottom. I mean, how much 385 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 1: does that factor into the calculation? You just you just 386 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 1: don't want to pay to use the overhead been in 387 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,640 Speaker 1: the United extra extra economy. Well, I'm just saying, which 388 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,199 Speaker 1: they just announced still happen in two thousand seventy. This 389 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,440 Speaker 1: has been the main tension, right, is that a lot 390 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 1: of airlines are concerned that they can't get the prices 391 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,880 Speaker 1: up and stay up with just based on the competition, right, 392 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: based on the sort of race to the bottom, not 393 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 1: always a race to the bottom. But I think that's 394 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 1: is becoming an ologopoly. Uh. And I think that when 395 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 1: you go look even for pricing of tickets between American 396 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 1: United it's very difficult, a big differential. Uh. And it's 397 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 1: called yield management software and algorithm that is used for 398 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: stock trading for trading is now being used for pricing 399 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 1: of these tickets. So I think that they have tremendous 400 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 1: pricing uh collaboration using technology. It's not you and I 401 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 1: call and talk to each other, but it's technology, so 402 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: it's not colluding if there's some sort of technological uh intermediary. 403 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 1: The same thing with front running. It was a it 404 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 1: was an algorithm that can see things faster and jump 405 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,399 Speaker 1: in front of your order. It's not front running. Frank Holmes, 406 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 1: what's the nicest flight you've been on recently? People notice 407 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:53,680 Speaker 1: that people come up to and say you're the jets Man. 408 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 1: Not yet at least to do for the gold End, 409 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 1: but on the jets and I would say that Delta 410 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 1: right now is a most price competitive and gives me 411 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:06,520 Speaker 1: the most options. What's interesting because they are testing coach 412 00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:10,240 Speaker 1: meals in coach free, so they're going in the other direction. 413 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 1: And they were the first buyer refinery to to control 414 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: their energy. Refiner. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P 415 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,119 Speaker 1: and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 416 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 1: at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 417 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,400 Speaker 1: pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at pim Fox. 418 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,400 Speaker 1: I'm out there on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one 419 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,399 Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide on 420 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:40,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.