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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am

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Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple Coarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk a little technology.

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Speaker 3: Why not Man Deep Seeing, global tech research head from

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 2: He joins us here, so I'm seen as Bloomberg News story.

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Speaker 3: NVIDIAs stock is at its cheapest it's been since before

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Speaker 3: the AI boom. After news after losing roughly one trillion

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Speaker 3: dollars in market value over the less than two months.

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Speaker 2: What's going on there? Taking some profits?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, taking profits? And look, I think when it comes

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Speaker 4: to the chip space, we've heard quite a few announcements

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Speaker 4: in the last few months, both from the hyperscalers ramping

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Speaker 4: up their efforts, whether it's Amazon or Microsoft. So it's

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Speaker 4: not just Google TPUs anymore, BUTTA All these hyperscalers are

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Speaker 4: focused more on the inference side of things, which is

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Speaker 4: where you know you're generating most of your revenue if

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Speaker 4: you're focused on AI. And they've left the training market

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Speaker 4: to Nvidia. But when it comes to inferencing specifically, you've

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Speaker 4: got more competition. Even open Ai and Tropic are looking

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Speaker 4: to make their own chips. Now, the timeline for this

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Speaker 4: is all you know, two three years out. There will

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Speaker 4: be nothing imminent in terms of, you know, something that

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Speaker 4: can compete with Nvidia, but the market is anticipatory in

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Speaker 4: that sense, and the fact that everyone is looking to

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Speaker 4: build their own chips is a sign that there will

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Speaker 4: be more competition for Nvidia down the line.

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Speaker 5: That makes it sound like it's easy for them to

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Speaker 5: make their own ships. They partner up with someone and

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Speaker 5: they just make it.

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Speaker 2: It can't be that easy, is It.

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Speaker 4: Can't be that easy, which is why the timelines are

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Speaker 4: already two years out. There's nothing that I could say

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Speaker 4: over the next six months, you know there will be

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Speaker 4: a competitor to Nvideo or Google TPUs. Google TPU is

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Speaker 4: what is inspiring all these companies to build their own

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Speaker 4: chips because they've seen Google has released eight versions of

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Speaker 4: their own chip, and the Entropic models, which are the

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Speaker 4: best in class models, were trained on Google TPUs and

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Speaker 4: also they use Google TPUs for inferencing for the most part,

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Speaker 4: So now they have started to use Nvidia. But your

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Speaker 4: best model out there wasn't using Nvidia, and so from

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Speaker 4: that perspective, there's a case to be made that there

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Speaker 4: could be potentially more competition given what Google has accomplished

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Speaker 4: over the years.

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Speaker 3: The AI rotation trade is gathering pace in Asia as

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Speaker 3: investors pull money from chip makers and hunt for cheaper

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Speaker 3: ways to play the technology boom.

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Speaker 2: What are the cheaper ways to play the technology boom?

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Speaker 3: Might just go buy a utility company.

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Speaker 2: I don't think so.

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Speaker 4: Look, I think right now we are in that risk

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Speaker 4: of sentiment when it comes to the AI infrastructure trade.

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Speaker 4: People seem to be panicking, and they are, and whenever

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Speaker 4: something like this happens, there's indiscriminate selling of all AI

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Speaker 4: infrastructure names. People don't try to sort things out of

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Speaker 4: this company like Memory, for example, I mean all their earnings,

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Speaker 4: whether it's Samsung or Micron. These are companies that have

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Speaker 4: the highest margins they've ever had, shown incredible pricing power,

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Speaker 4: and you know their customers are looking to lock in

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Speaker 4: the pricing at this point because they don't want to

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Speaker 4: pay higher prices three months from now. So in terms

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Speaker 4: of pricing power, if there's any sector that has the

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Speaker 4: best pricing power right now, it's memory. And so from

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Speaker 4: that perspective, I don't see a reason why you would

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Speaker 4: want to, you know, sell these companies, especially companies with

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Speaker 4: pricing power, with margin expansion, with probably the best margins

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Speaker 4: they ever had, just because you feel, you know, they

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Speaker 4: they're hitting Peaker. I don't see that as a reason.

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Speaker 5: We were talking about in Nvidia earlier, and Vidia shares

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Speaker 5: have shot up. They're now up about nine tens of

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Speaker 5: one percent from being in the red. And this is

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Speaker 5: on a headline from the Information, which is a tech publication,

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Speaker 5: saying that China will let its top AI companies buy

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Speaker 5: some in Nvidia H two hundred chips.

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Speaker 2: This is the.

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Speaker 5: Lower grade in Nvidia AI chips, right Mande, Yes, Okay.

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Speaker 4: This is the Hopper, the not the Nerve version, but

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Speaker 4: the version that probably they were allowed to sell in China.

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Speaker 4: And yeah, the US companies have the better versions available.

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Speaker 5: Okay, so it's a downgraded version from what Nvidia offers

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Speaker 5: to the US customer. But the US government has allowed

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Speaker 5: in Nvidia to sell to China. China just didn't allow

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Speaker 5: its own companies to buy these chips up until now. Correct,

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Speaker 5: easy come, easygo, China can turn on permission and turn

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Speaker 5: off permission like a switch, right. I mean, that's the risk.

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Speaker 2: Here, that's the risk.

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Speaker 4: And look, when it comes to the Chinese open source

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Speaker 4: models so far, what we have seen from them is

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Speaker 4: they are probably six to nine months behind when it

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Speaker 4: comes to the capabilities of the models. And even though

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Speaker 4: they didn't have access to the latest in video chips,

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Speaker 4: at the end of the day, these chips are deployed

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Speaker 4: on a cloud somewhere and that cloud may not be

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Speaker 4: in China, but the customers could be these Chinese model companies.

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Speaker 4: So from that perspective, there is that aspect around accessing

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Speaker 4: the compute wherever it's available on the cloud, and that

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Speaker 4: may go beyond the geographic boundaries.

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Speaker 2: Thirty seconds s khinex.

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Speaker 3: They want to do a twenty billion dollar equity offering

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Speaker 3: here in the US to trade Friday.

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Speaker 2: Is that going to happen?

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Speaker 4: I think so yes.

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Speaker 2: I mean you've taped so that it. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: But look, I think investors who believe in this memory

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Speaker 4: cycle that it's going to be durable and long, they

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Speaker 4: will want a piece of it.

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Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch US Live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: One of the big stories obviously in capital markets over

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Speaker 3: the last really a couple of months, it's just been

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Speaker 3: the issuance of investment grade debt by technology companies associated

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Speaker 3: with their AI capital spending plans. The most recent deal

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Speaker 3: is Amazon coming with a big deal at twenty five

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Speaker 3: billion dollars. That's issuing more than sixty billion across currencies.

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Speaker 3: You know, just recently, Rob Shifman, he's been on fire

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Speaker 3: on this stuff, way ahead of it. Senior tech credit

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Speaker 3: analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 2: Amazon, just talk to us. That's the most recent deal. Rob,

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Speaker 2: Just give us a sense of how that was received.

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Speaker 3: In the marketplace and how the market's thinking about some

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Speaker 3: of these tech players that have really become big issuers.

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Speaker 6: Sure, you know, if you read Bloomberg News, it reads

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Speaker 6: like it was received terribly and quite frankly, I don't

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Speaker 6: think that was the case. You know, when they've actually

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Speaker 6: issued almost one hundred billion dollars a debt this year

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Speaker 6: across currencies, when you issue that much paper, every time

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Speaker 6: you do a deal, you need to pay a little

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Speaker 6: bit more. So new issue concessions on this were higher

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Speaker 6: than traditionally. That being said, they were probably about ten

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Speaker 6: or fifteen beeps higher. And when you're talking about a

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Speaker 6: company that's raising thirty year money at spreads over treasuries

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Speaker 6: at one hundred and ten basis points, quite frankly, it's

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Speaker 6: just a rounding error. The ability to raise twenty five

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Speaker 6: billion dollars in a couple of hours. I don't care

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Speaker 6: if it's oversubscribed by two times or five times. Amazon

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Speaker 6: could raise as much money as they want whenever they want.

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Speaker 6: They just might have to pay a little bit more.

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Speaker 5: So that paying a little bit more, you're attributing it

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Speaker 5: to the fact that they've already raised quite a bit

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Speaker 5: of money. And I think you're referring to the big

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Speaker 5: bond sale they did in Canada, the Luney offering last month.

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Speaker 5: Or is it that maybe sentiment has turned a little bit.

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Speaker 5: I think that's what we're trying to get at.

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Speaker 6: Yet, No, I don't think sentiment is turned. Doing alternative currencies,

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Speaker 6: non dollar currencies is actually good from a US dollar

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Speaker 6: trading perspective. Because for every dollar that they issue that

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Speaker 6: is in alternative currencies, they don't have to do in

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Speaker 6: US dollars. What starts to happen is large money managers

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Speaker 6: just get full on the name. You know their Amazon

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Speaker 6: has about two hundred million dollars of debt outstanding now,

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Speaker 6: and these are large positions, so incentive to incentivize people

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Speaker 6: to take on more, you just have to pay a

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Speaker 6: little bit more. But what I'm saying is the overall

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Speaker 6: cost of borrowing for them from a spread perspective, is

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Speaker 6: still somewhat tiny. So yes, sentiment is getting a little

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Speaker 6: bit weaker. That happens when you have record issuance, and

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Speaker 6: it's likely to continue. Also, Amazon's not ruling out they're

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Speaker 6: going to be back in the markets later this year.

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Speaker 6: That said, you know, if they did an alphabet style

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Speaker 6: equity deal and raised seventy five eighty five billion dollars

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Speaker 6: of equity next month, I think you're going to see

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Speaker 6: spreads tighter. And in fact, you know, with all this

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Speaker 6: Middle East news, it's actually somewhat mildly positive or credit spreads.

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Speaker 6: What happens is yields end up going higher, so the

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Speaker 6: bid from the byside, particularly out the curve goes up.

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Speaker 6: You can basically buy the same names at the same

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Speaker 6: or tighter spreads, but higher yields. So you're seeing some

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Speaker 6: of that today. So Amazon is tighter today, and even

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Speaker 6: names like SpaceX are trading tighter today. So this concept

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Speaker 6: that the large hyperscalers are not going to be able

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Speaker 6: to raise as much money as we say that they're

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Speaker 6: going to need, I think that's just sort of a

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Speaker 6: misnomer because it cost them a little bit more this

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Speaker 6: time than it did last time.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned SpaceX and Tom follows those bonds. Tom King

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Speaker 3: follows those bonds, and he's been noting that they've been

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Speaker 3: trading lower relative talk to us about how they've been trading.

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Speaker 6: Why, Well, it's the nomenclatures is important. So lowers, are

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Speaker 6: you talking about spreads or are you talking about price right,

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Speaker 6: because it's the opposite. So, you know, spreads on the

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Speaker 6: break widen twenty to twenty five basis points, and now

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Speaker 6: they've settled in, you know, a nickel or so tighter,

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Speaker 6: so they're in a much more narrow trading range. Again,

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Speaker 6: I think that these these these basis point moves are

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Speaker 6: reasonably small, and they're not telling a story that I

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Speaker 6: think we see across news, which is a news knows

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Speaker 6: bad news sells, and they put out the sky is falling,

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Speaker 6: and quite frankly, it just isn't. There's a deep bid

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Speaker 6: for SpaceX bonds, there's a bid for Oracle bonds, and

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Speaker 6: there's a bid for these double A hyperscaler bonds. It's

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Speaker 6: just at a little bit of an incremental cost over

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Speaker 6: what historically they had paid. And it makes sense. Part

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Speaker 6: of the SpaceX issue is that they're going to come back,

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Speaker 6: and they're going to come back again and again and again,

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Speaker 6: and people just need to position that. You know, if

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Speaker 6: you're a triple bing aame, you know, where should you

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Speaker 6: be traded? Well, they're trading inside of where Oracle is.

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Speaker 6: So all of a sudden, I think Oracle levels, which

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Speaker 6: are you know, thirty forty wider create a backstop where

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Speaker 6: I think SpaceX might be going.

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Speaker 5: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 2: Coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catchup live weekdays

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Speaker 1: at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Blueberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Let's move over to the tech space here.

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Speaker 3: Apple chip deal with Broadcom expected to exceed thirty billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: Big move for Broadcam, big mood for Apples.

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Speaker 3: Check in with Ana rog Rana, senior tech analys for

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence, An Rock talk to us about this Apple deal.

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Speaker 7: Soon you look at it.

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Speaker 8: You know, at first, when we heard about this to

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Speaker 8: you a couple of days ago, you know, we thought

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Speaker 8: this would be something new. But it seems a little

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Speaker 8: bit like you know, similar smaller chips that they have

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Speaker 8: been buying from Broadcom for a while.

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Speaker 7: But I think the big portion is they are.

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Speaker 8: Being built in the US, are being manufactured in the US,

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Speaker 8: And I think that's really the big difference here because

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Speaker 8: you know, as we.

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Speaker 7: Know, most of these parts do come from Asia.

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Speaker 8: So this is the first part of the commitment Tim

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Speaker 8: Cook has made to President Trump that is going to.

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Speaker 7: Be buying more products in the US.

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Speaker 8: So I think that's the angle that's more important.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 8: It is important from Broadcom's point of view because Broadcom

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Speaker 8: didn't make the modem for the iPhone and Apple's beIN

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Speaker 8: it's in housing that particular piece now that was not

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Speaker 8: good for it was a big overhand for Broadcom for

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Speaker 8: a while, but this deal for them says Apples still

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Speaker 8: going to them for other chips and other paths. So

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Speaker 8: it's a good deal more so for Broadcom and for Apple.

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Speaker 8: It's basically telling the President Trump that we are buying

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Speaker 8: more products in the US.

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Speaker 3: And broadcomstock is up three and a half percent today,

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Speaker 3: up about eleven percent year to date, you know, of

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Speaker 3: the trailing twelve months, up about forty one percent. So

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Speaker 3: it's been well received by the marketplace here. So how

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Speaker 3: does Apple think about it's supply chain these days? You know,

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Speaker 3: they've been working so hard since the pandemic and then

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Speaker 3: with President Trump's pressures to kind of rejiggerate supply chain.

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Speaker 2: Where are we in that process now on?

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Speaker 4: Right?

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Speaker 7: So people do?

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Speaker 8: I think they are doing the right thing in terms

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Speaker 8: of if you look at bill of materials of any

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Speaker 8: product of any big phone, the chip is a very

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Speaker 8: expensive part of it.

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Speaker 7: You really, I don't.

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Speaker 8: Think you can logically think about them trying to assemble

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Speaker 8: the phone.

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Speaker 7: You know, that's a very very low.

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Speaker 8: Cost product somewhere in the US, because it's not mathematically

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Speaker 8: economical for them, you know, let them do that portion

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Speaker 8: somewhere in Asia where they have the scale, low cost labor,

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Speaker 8: and the factories are already set up, but the expensive

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Speaker 8: parts can be made in the US if we have

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Speaker 8: funding from the government, if they are bigger factories that

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Speaker 8: do that kind of stuff, so that I think they're

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Speaker 8: going about it the right way. We've also heard from

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Speaker 8: our Kerman. Then there is a possibility that Apple may

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Speaker 8: work with Broadcom to do some.

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Speaker 7: AI server chips.

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Speaker 8: That's going to be actually a very expensive chip if

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Speaker 8: they gig if they actually go out and do that,

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Speaker 8: and that can be done in the US also, So

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Speaker 8: looking at the right part of the supply chain, the

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Speaker 8: more expensive parts being built, I think that's the right

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Speaker 8: way to look at it.

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Speaker 3: What do we know of the role of Tim Cook

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Speaker 3: these days? What is he doing and what's the folk

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Speaker 3: spream going forward?

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Speaker 1: Do you think?

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Speaker 8: I think going forward it's I think very clear in

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Speaker 8: the announcement that is going to make that he's going

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Speaker 8: to be, you know, making shore, taking care of some

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Speaker 8: of the government affairs, which to me means attending dinners

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Speaker 8: both in China and in the US with the respective

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Speaker 8: presidents or basically wherever the president wants him to go.

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Speaker 7: He will tag.

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Speaker 8: Along I mean, I think that's really something that.

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Speaker 7: Even in the first three months of President Drum's you.

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Speaker 8: Know, inauguration, he was not happy that Kim Cook was

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Speaker 8: not in one of the particular functions. But since then

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Speaker 8: he's been seen everywhere. So I think that's going to

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Speaker 8: be his legacy and work going forward.

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Speaker 2: And it's hugely valuable, no question about it.

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Speaker 3: That's the way a lot of CEOs have come to

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Speaker 3: the They've come to the conclusion that's the best way

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Speaker 3: to deal with this administration.

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Speaker 2: Any latest thoughts here on.

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Speaker 3: Microsoft, you know, it's you know, it goes to that

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Speaker 3: whole AI as a competitive threat to software broadly defined,

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Speaker 3: and I can get it for some companies, but boy,

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Speaker 3: it doesn't ring true for Microsoft.

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Speaker 2: They just seem to actually big of a mote. But

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Speaker 2: that's not what the market saying.

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Speaker 7: I think the market's a little bit worried about Capex.

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Speaker 8: We published a note yesterday saying that maybe they need

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Speaker 8: to lighten up a little bit on that narrative because

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Speaker 8: if you look at the valuation gap, now it's trading

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Speaker 8: at what less than twenty times earnings and that was

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Speaker 8: not the case. I think the valuation's down almost thirty

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Speaker 8: nine to forty percent over the last twelve months. And

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Speaker 8: I think a lot of art has to do with

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Speaker 8: the money they're going to spend. By our calculation, they're

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Speaker 8: going to hit closer two hundred and ninety billion by

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Speaker 8: calendar twenty twenty six. That's about fifty four percent on revenue,

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Speaker 8: and that number is going to go up next to year.

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Speaker 8: So you have to really think that you really need

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Speaker 8: to spend that much money down the road, especially when

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Speaker 8: you have a very profitable software business. It's okay to

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Speaker 8: give back on a little bit of revenue growth, but boy,

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Speaker 8: you do want to keep that free cash flow going

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Speaker 8: because that's what some of the investors are looking for.

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Speaker 3: Yet, you know, we had your credit colleague on earlier today,

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Speaker 3: Rob Shiftman from Bloomberg Intelligence, and he's basically saying, Hey,

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Speaker 3: my market's wide open. These guys can keep issuing debt

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Speaker 3: and build as much as they.

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Speaker 8: Well, the thing is, it's okay for Google to do

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Speaker 8: it because they have their own chips. Amazon it has

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Speaker 8: its own chip. I like that Microsoft is still behind

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Speaker 8: in that chip war. If Microsoft is able to come

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Speaker 8: up its own chip and create a data center where

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Speaker 8: they don't need to go out and.

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Speaker 7: Pay the in media tacks.

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Speaker 8: It's okay, but right now Microsoft chip is not at

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Speaker 8: that level that customers are running to them and say, well,

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Speaker 8: give me your AI workload, but on your chip.

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Speaker 7: So if you have to go.

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Speaker 8: Buy Invidio chips, which is sometimes half of the CAPEX

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Speaker 8: goes to in media, then you have to really think

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Speaker 8: about whether why why are you doing that?

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Speaker 2: Thirty seconds left? Do they have the ability? Do you

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Speaker 2: think they'll get their own chip at any time soon?

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Speaker 8: They have their own chip and it's working, but it's

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Speaker 8: not doesn't have the same customer preference as that what

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Speaker 8: we saw with Google TPUs or with Amazon.

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