WEBVTT - FBI Raids Trump’s Florida Home (Radio)

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<v Speaker 1>Stunning development in the ongoing legal battles evolving former President

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump, a search warrant executed at the home of

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<v Speaker 1>the former president. With some perspective this morning, Wendy Shoulder,

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<v Speaker 1>director of the Tavern Center for American Politics and Policy

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<v Speaker 1>at Brown University, If I'm not mistaken, first time zever

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<v Speaker 1>happened to a former president where a search warrant was

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<v Speaker 1>executed at the home of a former president. Wendy, your

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<v Speaker 1>initial reaction, well, I mean, there's so many things to

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<v Speaker 1>think about here. I think that clearly things are ramping

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<v Speaker 1>up to figure out whether a case can be made

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<v Speaker 1>against Donald Trump, either for this, which is most of them,

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<v Speaker 1>I say, an infraction, but it's actually a criminal offense

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<v Speaker 1>to remove classified documents from the government and particularly president.

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<v Speaker 1>Everything has to go to the archives or be clear

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<v Speaker 1>through the archives. But also the January six Committee continues

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<v Speaker 1>its work on what his behavior was on January six

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<v Speaker 1>and whether he actively participated in essentially insurrection. So there's

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<v Speaker 1>a two two fronts here. Plus he's got a criminal

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<v Speaker 1>investigation uh in New York State, so there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>going on politically. This helps the Republicans mobilized voters for

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<v Speaker 1>mid term two particularly, they're very very strong Trump supporting base.

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<v Speaker 1>He's got a lot of people running for office across

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<v Speaker 1>the country that he supported that won their primaries and

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<v Speaker 1>not you know, governor of pet Venue who's actually testifying

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<v Speaker 1>before January six here in today, Mastriano. So this can

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<v Speaker 1>have a big effect as the FBI we know in

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<v Speaker 1>the last couple of years has had on elections. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>mid term, short term, good for the Republicans, um long

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<v Speaker 1>term for Trump for twenty four you gotta say it

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<v Speaker 1>leans towards the bad for Trump and good for people

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<v Speaker 1>like Rnda Santis or Christy Nome or Kim Reynolds, any

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<v Speaker 1>of the other people who might be thinking about running.

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<v Speaker 1>So why has this been Why can this be used

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<v Speaker 1>as political opportunity for Republicans? Can you dive a little

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<v Speaker 1>deeper into that? I mean, it's a it's a potential

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<v Speaker 1>double edged store, but you gotta lean towards the positive

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<v Speaker 1>here in terms of mobilizing voters for the mid term.

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans tend to get out mid terms up until twenty eighteen,

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<v Speaker 1>more more consistently than Democrats. Their bases riled up. They've

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<v Speaker 1>got an opposite party president, I mean, all all things

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<v Speaker 1>count towards Republicans getting out the door who want change

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<v Speaker 1>in the government. Now the Trump supporters who may or

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<v Speaker 1>may not have gotten out, for all the Republicans across

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<v Speaker 1>the country, they'll get out because already Kevin McCarthy is

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<v Speaker 1>promising if the Speaker to investigate the Justice Department. So

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<v Speaker 1>the stakes really just went up, I think for the

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<v Speaker 1>stability of government. And it's really extraordinary to think about,

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<v Speaker 1>as you say, the impact of a former president on

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<v Speaker 1>the subsequent midterm elections of a new president. This we

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<v Speaker 1>haven't really seen. I mean, Clinton had reverb because of

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<v Speaker 1>Monica Lewinsky going into two thousands, but then there were

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<v Speaker 1>September eleven, that tragedy and the wars, so things, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the subject changed. But now you know this is still

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<v Speaker 1>going to be about Donald Trump two years later, about

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump, and that's extraordinary. What will be behind his

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<v Speaker 1>decision whether or not to run for president for? Will

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<v Speaker 1>they be legal reasons or political reasons? Well, there's also

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<v Speaker 1>financial reasons. He's raising a lot of money, which pays

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<v Speaker 1>for some portion of his expenses because as long as

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<v Speaker 1>he's campaigning and out there involved in politics. You know, um,

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<v Speaker 1>the FBC has to decide about this, but he can

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<v Speaker 1>use a lot of that money to support what he's doing. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>So you know that that helps him, uh and it

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<v Speaker 1>keeps him out of jail if he actually wins. The

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<v Speaker 1>question is will this become Trump fatigues for key Republican

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<v Speaker 1>suburban voters across the country. If the Republicans will like

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<v Speaker 1>too much on Trump going into mid term twenty two,

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<v Speaker 1>and you've got also the question of abortion, gun violence,

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<v Speaker 1>all the other things, inflation, guest prices, will voters decide

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<v Speaker 1>they want government to focus on those things quality of

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<v Speaker 1>life matters, not Donald Trump. And if enough suburban voters

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<v Speaker 1>do that, that could basically keep the Senate from going

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<v Speaker 1>totally Republican or keep it sort of in that tide

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<v Speaker 1>state that it's so. I think the House, I think

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<v Speaker 1>this will help Hopings quite a bit, But for the Senate,

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<v Speaker 1>it's unclear. Voters really want to hear about Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>for the next couple of months, either way negatively or positively.

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<v Speaker 1>Could he he could be legally disqualified from running for

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<v Speaker 1>president as well. Well. I don't think anything will stop

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<v Speaker 1>him from running. Honestly, even if they say you can't win,

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<v Speaker 1>He'll say, well, elect me will change the law. Elect

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans will change the law. Give him the Congress and

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<v Speaker 1>they'll change the law. I mean, that could be the

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<v Speaker 1>next step for Trump to ramp up his sort of

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<v Speaker 1>hold on the Republican Party. You can't just say you're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna investigate Mark Carwin. You have to actually promise to

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<v Speaker 1>change the law, and that Biden won't sign that, but

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<v Speaker 1>he can make members of Conference go on the record

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<v Speaker 1>saying we're going to change the law, so former presidents

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<v Speaker 1>can do whatever they want. That's the kind of thing

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<v Speaker 1>that will start to scare key suburban constituencies, particularly independents

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<v Speaker 1>and some Republicans about the prospect of a Republican control

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<v Speaker 1>of the House. And send it together so you know

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<v Speaker 1>you've got a Democratic president. Then hold the line. But

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<v Speaker 1>come twenty four, I don't think this overall benefits the

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<v Speaker 1>Republican Party. We saw what happen in Trump lost eighteen.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of people defected from Trump. So this is

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<v Speaker 1>a very risky proposition for the Republicans, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>more so for twenty four than two. Wendy always a

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<v Speaker 1>pleasure appreciated Professor Wendy Shilder, director of the Talmun Center

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<v Speaker 1>for American politics and policy at Brown University,