Speaker 1: Stunning development in the ongoing legal battles evolving former President
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, a search warrant executed at the home of
Speaker 1: the former president. With some perspective this morning, Wendy Shoulder,
Speaker 1: director of the Tavern Center for American Politics and Policy
Speaker 1: at Brown University, If I'm not mistaken, first time zever
Speaker 1: happened to a former president where a search warrant was
Speaker 1: executed at the home of a former president. Wendy, your
Speaker 1: initial reaction, well, I mean, there's so many things to
Speaker 1: think about here. I think that clearly things are ramping
Speaker 1: up to figure out whether a case can be made
Speaker 1: against Donald Trump, either for this, which is most of them,
Speaker 1: I say, an infraction, but it's actually a criminal offense
Speaker 1: to remove classified documents from the government and particularly president.
Speaker 1: Everything has to go to the archives or be clear
Speaker 1: through the archives. But also the January six Committee continues
Speaker 1: its work on what his behavior was on January six
Speaker 1: and whether he actively participated in essentially insurrection. So there's
Speaker 1: a two two fronts here. Plus he's got a criminal
Speaker 1: investigation uh in New York State, so there's a lot
Speaker 1: going on politically. This helps the Republicans mobilized voters for
Speaker 1: mid term two particularly, they're very very strong Trump supporting base.
Speaker 1: He's got a lot of people running for office across
Speaker 1: the country that he supported that won their primaries and
Speaker 1: not you know, governor of pet Venue who's actually testifying
Speaker 1: before January six here in today, Mastriano. So this can
Speaker 1: have a big effect as the FBI we know in
Speaker 1: the last couple of years has had on elections. Uh,
Speaker 1: mid term, short term, good for the Republicans, um long
Speaker 1: term for Trump for twenty four you gotta say it
Speaker 1: leans towards the bad for Trump and good for people
Speaker 1: like Rnda Santis or Christy Nome or Kim Reynolds, any
Speaker 1: of the other people who might be thinking about running.
Speaker 1: So why has this been Why can this be used
Speaker 1: as political opportunity for Republicans? Can you dive a little
Speaker 1: deeper into that? I mean, it's a it's a potential
Speaker 1: double edged store, but you gotta lean towards the positive
Speaker 1: here in terms of mobilizing voters for the mid term.
Speaker 1: Republicans tend to get out mid terms up until twenty eighteen,
Speaker 1: more more consistently than Democrats. Their bases riled up. They've
Speaker 1: got an opposite party president, I mean, all all things
Speaker 1: count towards Republicans getting out the door who want change
Speaker 1: in the government. Now the Trump supporters who may or
Speaker 1: may not have gotten out, for all the Republicans across
Speaker 1: the country, they'll get out because already Kevin McCarthy is
Speaker 1: promising if the Speaker to investigate the Justice Department. So
Speaker 1: the stakes really just went up, I think for the
Speaker 1: stability of government. And it's really extraordinary to think about,
Speaker 1: as you say, the impact of a former president on
Speaker 1: the subsequent midterm elections of a new president. This we
Speaker 1: haven't really seen. I mean, Clinton had reverb because of
Speaker 1: Monica Lewinsky going into two thousands, but then there were
Speaker 1: September eleven, that tragedy and the wars, so things, you know,
Speaker 1: the subject changed. But now you know this is still
Speaker 1: going to be about Donald Trump two years later, about
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, and that's extraordinary. What will be behind his
Speaker 1: decision whether or not to run for president for? Will
Speaker 1: they be legal reasons or political reasons? Well, there's also
Speaker 1: financial reasons. He's raising a lot of money, which pays
Speaker 1: for some portion of his expenses because as long as
Speaker 1: he's campaigning and out there involved in politics. You know, um,
Speaker 1: the FBC has to decide about this, but he can
Speaker 1: use a lot of that money to support what he's doing. Uh,
Speaker 1: So you know that that helps him, uh and it
Speaker 1: keeps him out of jail if he actually wins. The
Speaker 1: question is will this become Trump fatigues for key Republican
Speaker 1: suburban voters across the country. If the Republicans will like
Speaker 1: too much on Trump going into mid term twenty two,
Speaker 1: and you've got also the question of abortion, gun violence,
Speaker 1: all the other things, inflation, guest prices, will voters decide
Speaker 1: they want government to focus on those things quality of
Speaker 1: life matters, not Donald Trump. And if enough suburban voters
Speaker 1: do that, that could basically keep the Senate from going
Speaker 1: totally Republican or keep it sort of in that tide
Speaker 1: state that it's so. I think the House, I think
Speaker 1: this will help Hopings quite a bit, But for the Senate,
Speaker 1: it's unclear. Voters really want to hear about Donald Trump
Speaker 1: for the next couple of months, either way negatively or positively.
Speaker 1: Could he he could be legally disqualified from running for
Speaker 1: president as well. Well. I don't think anything will stop
Speaker 1: him from running. Honestly, even if they say you can't win,
Speaker 1: He'll say, well, elect me will change the law. Elect
Speaker 1: Republicans will change the law. Give him the Congress and
Speaker 1: they'll change the law. I mean, that could be the
Speaker 1: next step for Trump to ramp up his sort of
Speaker 1: hold on the Republican Party. You can't just say you're
Speaker 1: gonna investigate Mark Carwin. You have to actually promise to
Speaker 1: change the law, and that Biden won't sign that, but
Speaker 1: he can make members of Conference go on the record
Speaker 1: saying we're going to change the law, so former presidents
Speaker 1: can do whatever they want. That's the kind of thing
Speaker 1: that will start to scare key suburban constituencies, particularly independents
Speaker 1: and some Republicans about the prospect of a Republican control
Speaker 1: of the House. And send it together so you know
Speaker 1: you've got a Democratic president. Then hold the line. But
Speaker 1: come twenty four, I don't think this overall benefits the
Speaker 1: Republican Party. We saw what happen in Trump lost eighteen.
Speaker 1: A lot of people defected from Trump. So this is
Speaker 1: a very risky proposition for the Republicans, but I think
Speaker 1: more so for twenty four than two. Wendy always a
Speaker 1: pleasure appreciated Professor Wendy Shilder, director of the Talmun Center
Speaker 1: for American politics and policy at Brown University,