WEBVTT - Realtors Want To Fix Discrimination 

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world of business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Carol master Long, Katie Greifeld.

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<v Speaker 1>In our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio, we mentioned some of

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<v Speaker 1>the COVID headlines. The f d A of the United

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<v Speaker 1>States poised to authorize a pair of pills to treat

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen as soon as this week. We're watching that.

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<v Speaker 1>We are also monitoring out of DC because President bind

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<v Speaker 1>is expected to make some comment when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>coronavirus tests and really an update on the administration's policy

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to the pandemic, and he, like all

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<v Speaker 1>of us, like you know, the policy continues to evolve absolutely,

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<v Speaker 1>And you did see the Biden administration saying that it's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna send five hundred million free tests to aid this

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<v Speaker 1>shortage that they've found. So give me all the test.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah right, let's as long as people don't stop call

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<v Speaker 1>them exactly exactly. And meantime, we did have a UK

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<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister Boris Johnson ruling out stricter rules before Christmas,

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<v Speaker 1>but did urge some caution saying go out the situation

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<v Speaker 1>remains finally balanced and that officials may announce further curbs

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<v Speaker 1>after December. We really are going day to day, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>even hour to hour. Great to have back with us.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Alogic day Williams. He's Chief of Staff of Neurology

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<v Speaker 1>over at Columbia Universities Vagelo's College of Physicians and Surgeons

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<v Speaker 1>and NIH funded research or a leading health disparities expert

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<v Speaker 1>with research focused on community based behavioral intervention. You might

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<v Speaker 1>recall we've talked to him about Hip Hop Public Health.

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<v Speaker 1>He's the founder, president and board chair of IT, and

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Philanthropies has provided a grant to Hip Hop Health

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<v Speaker 1>as well. Great to have him back here on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone in New York City. Dr Williams. How are you

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<v Speaker 1>and what are you seeing when it comes to the pandemic. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm I'm doing well. Thanks for asking, and I hope

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<v Speaker 1>you and all your families are well when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to the pandemic. Um, you know, with seeing uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>rising numbers UM here in New York City and and

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<v Speaker 1>and and across the country is quite frankly, um, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna see this over the next several weeks across

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<v Speaker 1>the globe. And it's being really driven by the armicron bearing,

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<v Speaker 1>which is now, as you know, become the dominant strain

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<v Speaker 1>here in the US. And so you mentioned the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that we have seen rising cases, and Carol and I

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<v Speaker 1>were just talking about one of the headlines from this

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<v Speaker 1>morning that President Biden will send five million free coronavirus

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<v Speaker 1>tests to homes beginning next month. Should we expect to

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<v Speaker 1>see uh in acceleration in that rise just as a

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<v Speaker 1>natural result of more testing. Yeah, I mean I think that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, more more testing, you're gonna find more cases. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>The question is, um, do the cases translate into um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, burdened you know, overwhelming our hospitals into higher

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<v Speaker 1>death rates? And that is the great concern that is

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<v Speaker 1>the great sphere that that these cases um as as

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<v Speaker 1>they continue to surge, we will start seeing, especially among

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<v Speaker 1>the unvaccinated, more severe cases in our hospitals. UM. And

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<v Speaker 1>that is the concern. The data is still not fully

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<v Speaker 1>adjudicated on this yet, but but we are concerned, especially

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<v Speaker 1>among especially when it comes to the vulnerable among us.

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<v Speaker 1>So I guess a couple of questions, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>about this. I've had several individuals in the medical community.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Williams say, we're all going to get a macron

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<v Speaker 1>and that's how we kind of get rid of this virus. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and we just kind of knock it out. Is that

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<v Speaker 1>how you see it playing out? Or is there another

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<v Speaker 1>variant to come? What are your expectations, especially since I

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<v Speaker 1>think about the communities you watch who were so deeply

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<v Speaker 1>impacted uh last go around and some of the other

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<v Speaker 1>are peaks that we've seen when it comes to our COVID, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm really concerned, um because um you know, these variants

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<v Speaker 1>will continue to appear um and and and my my

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<v Speaker 1>biggest concern is the is really the issue of global

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine equity, because you know, COVID anywhere is COVID everywhere

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<v Speaker 1>and and once we as we we have just for example,

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<v Speaker 1>thirteen percent of people in Africa have receipt have received

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<v Speaker 1>at least one dose. That is a very low number.

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<v Speaker 1>So we will continue to see these variants emerge. And

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<v Speaker 1>as we can see with every variant, uh, these viruses

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<v Speaker 1>are becoming trickier, They're becoming more elusive, that is learning

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<v Speaker 1>how to evade our vaccines. And and you know, we,

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<v Speaker 1>you know we we might be confronted with a situation

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<v Speaker 1>where our vaccines don't work at all against the future variant.

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<v Speaker 1>And then that is that is the big concerns. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>Katie wants to know if she should travel on Thursday.

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<v Speaker 1>That's really what she wants to know. What's what's your

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<v Speaker 1>advice to people? Let's note, I'm supposed to see a

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<v Speaker 1>three month old infant after I get off the plane.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh my god. Well I can say this. I think

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<v Speaker 1>most the most important thing is to protect our vulnerable

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<v Speaker 1>loved one. UM. I think it's really important to be

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<v Speaker 1>you know, just exercise, just be responsible. Make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>our networks, our closest networks are at least boosted. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>It's important to make sure that we uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>use limit the sizes of our gatherings, um and and

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<v Speaker 1>um and as long as we take common sense safety

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<v Speaker 1>precautions um during this period. You know, I think that

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<v Speaker 1>we can keep our loved one's safe. You know, you do?

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<v Speaker 1>You do? You have a follow up? I do have

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<v Speaker 1>a really quick follow up. Just one. What Carol was

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<v Speaker 1>saying about the sort of inevitable feeling. You know, I've

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<v Speaker 1>heard some people say, why should I even bother getting

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<v Speaker 1>the booster? It feels like we're all going to get

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<v Speaker 1>this new variant anyway. What's the point I would love

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<v Speaker 1>to hear your response to that, And we have just

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<v Speaker 1>about thirty seconds. The point is hospitalization and death um

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<v Speaker 1>and and and and that is a real concern. We

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<v Speaker 1>know that the booster really does prevent you from progressing

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<v Speaker 1>to mild to severe disease. UH. The question is people

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<v Speaker 1>are asking is does this variant even cause severe disease?

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<v Speaker 1>And my answer to that is that the jury is

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<v Speaker 1>still out and you do not want to be on

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<v Speaker 1>the wrong side of that jury, because, especially if you

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<v Speaker 1>have vulnerable loved ones in your family. Listen, stay safe.

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<v Speaker 1>We so appreciate your time. Dr Williams, Doctor a Larger

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<v Speaker 1>Day Williams chief of staff of Neurology at Columbia University

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<v Speaker 1>and founder of hip hop Public Health. You're listening to

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week on Bloomberg Radio as our Bloomberg pursuits.

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<v Speaker 1>Auto columnist Hannah Elliott recently wrote this year, it seems

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<v Speaker 1>all anyone ever wanted to talk about in the car

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<v Speaker 1>world where electric vehicles and Katie check this out. In

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<v Speaker 1>the US alone, as of December one, more than fifteen

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<v Speaker 1>U states had pledged to phase out sales of new

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<v Speaker 1>cars with combustion engines. At least two more such moves

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<v Speaker 1>were pending. So people are leaning in heavily when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to e V. Yeah, big time. And I mean

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like it's one of the buzz words that

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<v Speaker 1>has emerged. E V along with metaverse and whatever help

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<v Speaker 1>you want to say. You put e V on anything,

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<v Speaker 1>and I mean you tend to generate a lot of buzz,

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<v Speaker 1>especially in share prices. We could have evs in metaverse,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe in a in a fun way. UM, let's get

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<v Speaker 1>some thoughts on trends in the auto industry. Cheryl Connolly

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<v Speaker 1>is with US chief futurist At Ford on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>in Dearborn, Michigan, Cheryl, good to have you here with

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<v Speaker 1>Katie and myself. How are you. It's good to be here.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for having me. It's great to have you here.

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<v Speaker 1>We love talking about the auto industry. Or Hannah Eli,

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<v Speaker 1>who covers it for Bloomberg pursuits all in on luxury

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<v Speaker 1>and just all the major trends. What are you guys

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<v Speaker 1>seeing from your perch there at Ford when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to trends maybe that we'll see playing out in two

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe into What's your point that you already Lendon,

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<v Speaker 1>is that dvs, like the e V revolution, is already

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<v Speaker 1>here for us. We expect that our global vehicle mics

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<v Speaker 1>will be fully electric um to a degree of four

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<v Speaker 1>year by the year, and there are consumers that are ready.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean six so long, so long? That's all the

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<v Speaker 1>eight years from now right? Why so long? That's so Actually,

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<v Speaker 1>we're well on our way. I think part of it

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<v Speaker 1>is infrastructure, um. But we've gone all in with our

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<v Speaker 1>Mustang Maki, which is I think a really interesting strategy

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<v Speaker 1>for four because we took our most precious nameplates, that

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<v Speaker 1>Mustang in the F one fifty, and we turned them

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<v Speaker 1>into electric so that we could show consumers that you

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<v Speaker 1>could totally reconceive what an electric vehicle is about. I

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<v Speaker 1>think in my mind that there is this notion among

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<v Speaker 1>consumers that there's a tradeoff, you know, you have to

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<v Speaker 1>give up something if you want electric and by taking

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<v Speaker 1>our most powerful vehicles, we started to show people that

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<v Speaker 1>you could still have um muscle and my lege, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there was no trade off. And I think as more

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<v Speaker 1>and more consumers seem on the road, they start to

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<v Speaker 1>understand that in the future, you it will be the

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<v Speaker 1>same kind of conversation do you have a V six,

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<v Speaker 1>a V eight or do you have an electric vehicle?

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<v Speaker 1>I think it will become almost a non issue. Mm hmm, yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, just anecdotally in my own life, I feel

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<v Speaker 1>like my parents are I have a hand to CRV

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<v Speaker 1>very much, not alec but okay, so EV's clearly top

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<v Speaker 1>of mind. What else, though, what about self driving vehicles?

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<v Speaker 1>Because that's another conversation, having more and more this year. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>So we've been watching this space for a very long

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<v Speaker 1>time and I think people are really enchanted with the

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<v Speaker 1>notion of it. But geographical appetite really varies. So in

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<v Speaker 1>recent years we know that when you look at places

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<v Speaker 1>like China and India. Over at the consumers say they're

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<v Speaker 1>hopeful about the a V feature um or that that experience.

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<v Speaker 1>But when you turn to the west, um the number

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<v Speaker 1>drops down to about for the US, forty five for

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<v Speaker 1>the UK, and forty four for Germany. So there there's

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<v Speaker 1>really a geographical component. I think it has something to

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<v Speaker 1>do with the landscape once you drive. Even so in

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<v Speaker 1>China there's this notion of these mega cities twenty three

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<v Speaker 1>billion people and in a place like Beijing alone, so

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<v Speaker 1>when you talk about getting an autonomous driving vehicle, you're

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<v Speaker 1>not just talking about safety, but you're talking about convenience.

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<v Speaker 1>And in a place like that, they report an average

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<v Speaker 1>day like community five hours a day. Um, so it's

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<v Speaker 1>it'll be life changing. And there is a safety component

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<v Speaker 1>too though, because I think that we know like sixty

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<v Speaker 1>five percent of people worldwide, I've told us that they

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<v Speaker 1>ran at their child right in a a V, than

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<v Speaker 1>ride with a stranger raising my hand. Um, well it's

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<v Speaker 1>interesting to shout out no really, like it's funny. I

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<v Speaker 1>just had to do, um some big drives to pick

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<v Speaker 1>up my daughter at college at school, and I was thinking,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm on a highway and a lot of vehicles today

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<v Speaker 1>have all these great safety features that basically they drive themselves,

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<v Speaker 1>and you can test it by putting on your you know,

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<v Speaker 1>destronic or whatever and taking your hands off the will

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<v Speaker 1>even though you're not supposed to. But they knew how

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<v Speaker 1>to self drive, and I can see how on highways,

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<v Speaker 1>what a great feature it could be and probably safer. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>I do think about tho our infrastructure, especially for cities,

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<v Speaker 1>if it's not in place. Again, that's the thing I

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<v Speaker 1>guess that holds us up the most. I do think

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<v Speaker 1>that's that is a really big question for most consumers

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<v Speaker 1>in their mind, is you know, when when will charging

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<v Speaker 1>be readily available? And we actually in our survey ask

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<v Speaker 1>people when they thought that there would be more UM

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<v Speaker 1>charging stations than gas stations, and we had about people

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<v Speaker 1>say that e V chargers will outnumber petrol stations. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's a slow ramp up, but it's again geography

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<v Speaker 1>plays such a role. Here Germany, when they were doing

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<v Speaker 1>their covid UH stimulus package, one of the things that

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<v Speaker 1>I really marveled at the kind of ingenuity of it

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<v Speaker 1>was that they said we're gonna put money in the

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<v Speaker 1>market and we're gonna give it to um, gas stations

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<v Speaker 1>and we're going to give them money, stimulus money so

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<v Speaker 1>they and put our new stations in it. And so

0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:06.040
<v Speaker 1>you can see this country flip it's availability, accessibility, and

0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:11.040
<v Speaker 1>the whole attitude around it literally overnight. Yeah, and it

0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:14.200
<v Speaker 1>does feel like some of these attitudes are shifting overnight. Hey,

0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:17.160
<v Speaker 1>so we have about twenty seconds. Curious what surprised you

0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:20.560
<v Speaker 1>most when you do look at this report? You know

0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:22.920
<v Speaker 1>what surprised me is that with all the worry about

0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:26.760
<v Speaker 1>COVID and economic volatility anyone percent, that people say when

0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:29.000
<v Speaker 1>they think about the future, the planet is one of

0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.000
<v Speaker 1>the biggest things that they still consider to be one

0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.040
<v Speaker 1>of the most pressing issues. It's what makes us worry

0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:35.520
<v Speaker 1>about our children's future. Well, it's good to know that

0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:38.360
<v Speaker 1>that's on people's minds, because nothing else really matters if

0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:41.040
<v Speaker 1>you don't get that right. All right, Cheryl gotta run Hey,

0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:44.040
<v Speaker 1>Happy New Year, um and be well. Caryl Connolly, she's

0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:47.920
<v Speaker 1>chief futurist over at Forward on the phone from Dearborn, Michigan.

0:12:48.960 --> 0:12:52.640
<v Speaker 1>Like it's climate, COVID, climate COVID self driving, and that

0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.120
<v Speaker 1>was a really interesting conversation. Good stuff. All right, you're

0:12:56.440 --> 0:13:01.360
<v Speaker 1>you're listening to Bloomberg Radio. So, Katie, not sure if

0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:04.120
<v Speaker 1>you saw this via transportation as a tech company focused

0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:07.160
<v Speaker 1>on helping people get around cities confidentially filing with the

0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:10.360
<v Speaker 1>SEC today for an IPO. Even in these last few

0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:11.760
<v Speaker 1>weeks of the year, we'll continue to see the I

0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.599
<v Speaker 1>p O market really move ahead. Yeah, that I p

0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 1>O market still hot in these final few weeks. Let's

0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:19.960
<v Speaker 1>talk about that more with Chris Malick. He is the

0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 1>managing director at key Bank Capital Market. He joins us

0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:27.679
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Cleveland, Ohio. Chris, great to have

0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:29.440
<v Speaker 1>you with us, Karen. I were just talking about the

0:13:29.440 --> 0:13:31.280
<v Speaker 1>fact that, I mean the I p O market it

0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:35.360
<v Speaker 1>was hot in super hot one too. I believe there's

0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:38.840
<v Speaker 1>been close to five hundred I p O s this year.

0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:42.960
<v Speaker 1>Can we sustain that pace? It is a lot? Yeah,

0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:46.840
<v Speaker 1>great questions In the first off, Good afternoon, Carol and Katie.

0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for having me on and uh, happy holidays. Uh.

0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:52.920
<v Speaker 1>Certainly good to see the market up today with a

0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:56.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of green on the screen. You know. To your point, Uh,

0:13:56.720 --> 0:14:01.280
<v Speaker 1>it was a record here here in roughly two times

0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.520
<v Speaker 1>the amount of issuance that we saw in which by

0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.640
<v Speaker 1>itself was a pretty solid year. I think you've got

0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.840
<v Speaker 1>to go back to the dot com era for a

0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:13.640
<v Speaker 1>comparable year. UM. You know, but as we look out,

0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:18.280
<v Speaker 1>I am cautiously optimistic that we'll see continued momentum inequities

0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:23.240
<v Speaker 1>and issuance into two UM. I think December is actually

0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:26.480
<v Speaker 1>a pretty good proxy for what to expect because you've

0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:28.680
<v Speaker 1>had a little bit of everything. Uh. You know, Oh,

0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:31.600
<v Speaker 1>Macron has been a moving target. You know, you go

0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:34.840
<v Speaker 1>back to Black Friday, uh, initially putting some pressure on

0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:39.479
<v Speaker 1>the market, sentiment improved, uh and now once again impacting

0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:42.480
<v Speaker 1>equities in in a negative way. Uh, you know, in

0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:45.200
<v Speaker 1>terms of rates and inflation. Also putting a little bit

0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:50.640
<v Speaker 1>of pressure on markets with three anticipated hikes next year. Uh.

0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.040
<v Speaker 1>And then you know, with regard to build back better,

0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:56.480
<v Speaker 1>that's probably not helping the situation either. But you know,

0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:58.760
<v Speaker 1>all that said, I p O s continued to price

0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:03.080
<v Speaker 1>here in dece number with a handful of large tech

0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 1>deals getting done. You had new holdings they priced at

0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:09.440
<v Speaker 1>two point six billion dollar IPO Hashy Corp uh and

0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:13.640
<v Speaker 1>then most recently some Sara. So if I look at

0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:17.240
<v Speaker 1>the Renaissance IPO index, it's down about ten percent so

0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.440
<v Speaker 1>far this year, so returns not so great for many

0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:22.480
<v Speaker 1>I p O s. Um, what does that tell you,

0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:24.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, in a market that overall, if you look

0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:27.800
<v Speaker 1>at those major equity averages, they've done fairly well, if

0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:30.280
<v Speaker 1>they've done really well in fact, So what does that

0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:33.560
<v Speaker 1>say that juxtaposition of how I pos generally did against

0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:37.120
<v Speaker 1>the broader market? You know, that's a great question because

0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:40.160
<v Speaker 1>I think if you look at that same index for

0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:46.400
<v Speaker 1>it was up over over so a huge delta year

0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:50.200
<v Speaker 1>over year with the renaissance IPO index. But then um

0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:52.480
<v Speaker 1>to your point, when you take a look at that

0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:56.080
<v Speaker 1>index versus the major indusices you know that are up

0:15:56.120 --> 0:16:02.400
<v Speaker 1>about twenty you know, that's roughly three percentage points UH difference.

0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:07.360
<v Speaker 1>And what it tells me is, UM that the evaluations

0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.960
<v Speaker 1>for this year's class of I p O s arguably

0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:13.800
<v Speaker 1>a little bit rich. A lot of I p O

0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:15.760
<v Speaker 1>s in the high growth sectors this year of of

0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:20.120
<v Speaker 1>tech and healthcare UM, and perhaps going forward some of

0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:23.880
<v Speaker 1>those valuations come down a little bit. You've also got

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:26.600
<v Speaker 1>the conversation in and around rates, and I think that

0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:31.320
<v Speaker 1>by itself and the discounting mechanism will will rain in uh.

0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:33.480
<v Speaker 1>You know, some of those multiples. Yeah, that's what I

0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:35.520
<v Speaker 1>want to talk about, the fact that you do have

0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 1>what two three interest rate hikes expected from the Federal

0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:42.720
<v Speaker 1>Reserve next year. I mean broadly, that's expected to maybe

0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:45.920
<v Speaker 1>take the shine off of some of those high growth

0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:50.080
<v Speaker 1>names in the stock market. Could that affect the sort

0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:53.480
<v Speaker 1>of makeup of the companies that were Seego public next year?

0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:59.160
<v Speaker 1>I think it could. I think the complexion changes a

0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:02.120
<v Speaker 1>little bit, um you know, a few thoughts in and

0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:04.879
<v Speaker 1>around that question. I think right now, at a high level,

0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:09.120
<v Speaker 1>there's a little bit of what goes up must come down. Uh.

0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:12.440
<v Speaker 1>You know, with the record fiscal and monetary stimulus over

0:17:12.480 --> 0:17:15.680
<v Speaker 1>the last few years, that that's bit up risk assets.

0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:18.000
<v Speaker 1>And now I think the mood is shifting a little

0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:21.160
<v Speaker 1>bit more towards risk off. I don't think it's binary,

0:17:21.280 --> 0:17:23.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, risk on or risk off, but a little

0:17:23.480 --> 0:17:26.840
<v Speaker 1>bit more Uh, risk off is we look at things

0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:31.199
<v Speaker 1>like rate increases and and UH in the virus you know,

0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:34.840
<v Speaker 1>I think we'll get through O Macron by the spring. Uh.

0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:37.840
<v Speaker 1>And then you know, the three projected quarter point moves

0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:41.000
<v Speaker 1>by the Fed um you know, arguably light you know,

0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:44.040
<v Speaker 1>I think um, you know, regarding those moves you know

0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:46.199
<v Speaker 1>that will take the FED funds right, you know up

0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:50.359
<v Speaker 1>to what to a hundred basis points, which, uh is

0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:55.640
<v Speaker 1>still an environment in which most equities are attractive. Um,

0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, sort of getting over into what companies I

0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.679
<v Speaker 1>think could go public next year and what people look at.

0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:05.200
<v Speaker 1>I think these long term secular themes will continue to

0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:09.680
<v Speaker 1>to win the day. So anything involving technology advances in

0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:14.439
<v Speaker 1>technology software AI. I know earlier on the show, the

0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:18.520
<v Speaker 1>topic of metaverse was was discussed. Uh, you know, anything

0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:22.080
<v Speaker 1>in the life sciences and medtech that make dealing with

0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:25.640
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic easier will be well received. I also think

0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:29.919
<v Speaker 1>uh evs uh you know, the decarbonization i'll call it

0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:33.000
<v Speaker 1>of the energy complex. All of those things will continue

0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:36.560
<v Speaker 1>to be popular with the by side. That said, and

0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:39.199
<v Speaker 1>here's the key point, I think there's going to be

0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:42.880
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of a shift uh into focusing more

0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:47.400
<v Speaker 1>on individual company profiles. Uh you know, so maybe this

0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:51.120
<v Speaker 1>is a function of moving into the mid cycle, if

0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:54.719
<v Speaker 1>you will, where I think sector focus and company focus

0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:57.520
<v Speaker 1>become a little more important. So, um, companies that are

0:18:57.520 --> 0:19:00.800
<v Speaker 1>positioned well in their sectors. Uh, you know, flow good

0:19:00.800 --> 0:19:04.920
<v Speaker 1>balance sheets, right, um, it importantly priced, it a reasonable evaluation.

0:19:05.119 --> 0:19:08.600
<v Speaker 1>Got it? Hey, Chris, we gotta run. Chris Malock, managing

0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:11.359
<v Speaker 1>director at key Bank Capital Markets, joining us on the

0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:13.719
<v Speaker 1>phone from Cleveland, Ohio. We didn't talk too much about SPACs,

0:19:13.720 --> 0:19:16.480
<v Speaker 1>but spacks overall, Katie as a group or down about

0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:19.639
<v Speaker 1>sixteen this year. Yeah, it's all those high flyers not

0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:22.320
<v Speaker 1>looking too hot right now, exactly, very different from how

0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:26.880
<v Speaker 1>we started the year. Well. From our Bloomberg Business Week team,

0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:29.199
<v Speaker 1>a story on the efforts by realtors who want to

0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:33.320
<v Speaker 1>fix years of discrimination against black Americans, specifically. The thing

0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:36.520
<v Speaker 1>is they're not about to give up their six percent commission.

0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:39.119
<v Speaker 1>So let's get into the story. Peter Robison, his Projects

0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:42.159
<v Speaker 1>and Investigations reporter at Bloomberg News. He is with Katie

0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:45.800
<v Speaker 1>and me on the phone in Seattle. Hey, Peter, um,

0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:49.400
<v Speaker 1>really smart story. Tell us well, first of all, take

0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:51.840
<v Speaker 1>us back to how your story starts, um, and that

0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:56.479
<v Speaker 1>awkward zoom call. What happened? Hi? Yeah, it really starts

0:19:56.480 --> 0:20:00.639
<v Speaker 1>in November. That was the period when big companies and

0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:05.359
<v Speaker 1>institutions all around the country were wrestling with the George

0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:08.800
<v Speaker 1>Floyd murder and the racial reckoning that was happening, and

0:20:08.920 --> 0:20:12.399
<v Speaker 1>there was a moment where the realtors officially apologized for

0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:17.200
<v Speaker 1>decades of policy that had excluded Black Americans from home ownership.

0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:20.960
<v Speaker 1>And it was a zoom call between the president of

0:20:21.040 --> 0:20:25.480
<v Speaker 1>the realtors named Charlie Oppler. He's a realtor from New Jersey,

0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:29.400
<v Speaker 1>and he said, many Americans may not realize just how

0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:32.160
<v Speaker 1>far reaching the systemic discrimination was. And then he threw

0:20:32.160 --> 0:20:35.520
<v Speaker 1>the camera to Brian Green, who is the group's newly

0:20:35.560 --> 0:20:38.040
<v Speaker 1>appointed at the time, was the newly appointed director of

0:20:38.080 --> 0:20:42.360
<v Speaker 1>Fair Housing Policy. And Brian Green had spent decades at

0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:45.480
<v Speaker 1>the Housing and Urban Development Department, and and he talked

0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:49.040
<v Speaker 1>about how black Americans were excluded, how the Realtors group

0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:52.880
<v Speaker 1>opposed the Fair Housing Act and uh and and that's

0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:55.600
<v Speaker 1>where the call was was left. It was really an

0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:59.280
<v Speaker 1>acknowledgment of the damage that had been done over the decades. So, Peter,

0:20:59.359 --> 0:21:05.199
<v Speaker 1>that call was in November. We're now in December. Where

0:21:05.280 --> 0:21:08.439
<v Speaker 1>are we now? What are those efforts to you know,

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:11.800
<v Speaker 1>fix those decades of discrimination? What do they look like?

0:21:13.119 --> 0:21:15.959
<v Speaker 1>That's what our story tried to assess because obviously there

0:21:16.000 --> 0:21:18.560
<v Speaker 1>was a lot of focus on the issue then uh

0:21:18.640 --> 0:21:21.679
<v Speaker 1>and and now the question is what are you really

0:21:21.680 --> 0:21:24.240
<v Speaker 1>doing what what a tonement is being made uh. And

0:21:24.240 --> 0:21:27.520
<v Speaker 1>and so the realtors have started a training program to

0:21:27.520 --> 0:21:32.119
<v Speaker 1>to try to teach to try to avoid instance is

0:21:32.160 --> 0:21:36.760
<v Speaker 1>a potential bias by by realtors. They've supported the administration's

0:21:36.800 --> 0:21:41.960
<v Speaker 1>down payment assistance program. And they've actually also supported Maxine

0:21:41.960 --> 0:21:45.439
<v Speaker 1>Waters proposal, which which would go even further than the

0:21:45.480 --> 0:21:49.920
<v Speaker 1>House proposal. And they've they've talked about participating in the

0:21:50.359 --> 0:21:54.880
<v Speaker 1>um UH in the review of appraisals the administration is doing,

0:21:54.920 --> 0:22:00.719
<v Speaker 1>which which might help reverse the discrimination that is evident

0:22:00.920 --> 0:22:05.560
<v Speaker 1>in UH neighborhoods were non what Americans tend to live. UH.

0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:08.600
<v Speaker 1>So that's really what has been done. Our our story

0:22:08.640 --> 0:22:12.920
<v Speaker 1>looked at what is happening beyond that, looking at you know,

0:22:12.960 --> 0:22:16.920
<v Speaker 1>as you mentioned the commission, the commission is is four

0:22:17.000 --> 0:22:21.400
<v Speaker 1>to six percent. It has realtors chasing the larger commissions

0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:24.000
<v Speaker 1>that tends to be in the higher price neighborhoods, and

0:22:24.080 --> 0:22:26.639
<v Speaker 1>those neighborhoods tend to be where white Americans live. So

0:22:26.760 --> 0:22:30.320
<v Speaker 1>so we found that in many cities across the country,

0:22:30.359 --> 0:22:34.639
<v Speaker 1>there there are just many more realtors in predominantly white

0:22:34.720 --> 0:22:40.199
<v Speaker 1>neighborhoods that neighborhoods with pronoumbly non white people don't have

0:22:40.240 --> 0:22:43.840
<v Speaker 1>the same attention and haven't gotten the same opportunities. Hey, Peter,

0:22:43.920 --> 0:22:46.240
<v Speaker 1>the National Association of Realtors, right, it's been around for

0:22:46.280 --> 0:22:48.520
<v Speaker 1>a long time, and yet it just got its first

0:22:48.520 --> 0:22:50.600
<v Speaker 1>Director of Fair Housing Policy, as you write, and you

0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:53.879
<v Speaker 1>mentioned bat Brian Green, who had worked for many years

0:22:53.960 --> 0:22:56.000
<v Speaker 1>at the U s Department of Housing and Urban Development.

0:22:56.000 --> 0:22:58.040
<v Speaker 1>What does that say though, that they're getting their first

0:22:58.040 --> 0:23:01.639
<v Speaker 1>director of fair housing policy? Fair housing, the issue that

0:23:01.760 --> 0:23:04.960
<v Speaker 1>concerned this is not a new idea. We've talked about

0:23:05.000 --> 0:23:07.560
<v Speaker 1>it for decades. I feel like, um, what does it

0:23:07.640 --> 0:23:10.080
<v Speaker 1>say about the organization that this is only happening now?

0:23:12.080 --> 0:23:14.120
<v Speaker 1>It does make a statement in and of itself. It's

0:23:14.240 --> 0:23:17.800
<v Speaker 1>it also, UH is the case that within a very

0:23:17.800 --> 0:23:22.480
<v Speaker 1>short time of Brian Green taking that role, a blockbuster

0:23:22.680 --> 0:23:25.960
<v Speaker 1>investigation in Newsday found that racial steering was alive and

0:23:26.000 --> 0:23:31.040
<v Speaker 1>well in Long Island. That a large percentage of the

0:23:31.040 --> 0:23:35.000
<v Speaker 1>realtors that that Newsday approached UH steered their clients to

0:23:35.160 --> 0:23:38.160
<v Speaker 1>certain neighborhoods based on their race. So what it says

0:23:38.280 --> 0:23:40.719
<v Speaker 1>is that there's a long way to go. And so

0:23:40.880 --> 0:23:44.119
<v Speaker 1>how has this played out? In the National Association of

0:23:44.160 --> 0:23:47.880
<v Speaker 1>Realtors itself, because as you write in your story, I mean,

0:23:48.320 --> 0:23:50.840
<v Speaker 1>this is a trade group that you know, largely supported

0:23:50.880 --> 0:23:54.840
<v Speaker 1>the administration of Donald Trump, It hosted, it hosted him

0:23:54.880 --> 0:23:59.399
<v Speaker 1>at its legislative summit. Have we seen any have we

0:23:59.440 --> 0:24:03.879
<v Speaker 1>seen any fissures opened up in this group specifically? There

0:24:04.160 --> 0:24:07.639
<v Speaker 1>has been a lot of ascent from from what the

0:24:07.680 --> 0:24:10.760
<v Speaker 1>group is doing that at the about the same time

0:24:10.760 --> 0:24:14.919
<v Speaker 1>the group issued this apology, at also UH made a

0:24:14.920 --> 0:24:18.680
<v Speaker 1>formal ban of hate speech, that that realtors who um

0:24:19.240 --> 0:24:22.360
<v Speaker 1>say racist things either at work or even on their

0:24:22.480 --> 0:24:26.000
<v Speaker 1>own social media seeds could potentially be expelled from the group.

0:24:26.000 --> 0:24:28.440
<v Speaker 1>And that led to a lot of pushback. You had

0:24:28.480 --> 0:24:31.800
<v Speaker 1>people saying that's an infringement by First Amendment rights. You

0:24:31.880 --> 0:24:36.000
<v Speaker 1>had people calling it cancel culture. We have heard of

0:24:36.080 --> 0:24:38.640
<v Speaker 1>at least a couple of cases where realtors have talked

0:24:38.640 --> 0:24:41.639
<v Speaker 1>about ending their donations to the group's political arm. So

0:24:41.680 --> 0:24:47.000
<v Speaker 1>it's really mapping the divisions in American society. I always

0:24:47.040 --> 0:24:49.040
<v Speaker 1>feel like for our audience, So we're talking about them,

0:24:49.080 --> 0:24:52.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, banning some of their their social posting. What

0:24:52.160 --> 0:24:57.760
<v Speaker 1>kinds of things were realtors posting? They were they were

0:24:57.800 --> 0:25:01.560
<v Speaker 1>horrible enough that you can't say them. They there's a

0:25:01.560 --> 0:25:05.879
<v Speaker 1>fellow he met the Fantas, who is a realtor from Champaign, Illinois,

0:25:06.000 --> 0:25:09.600
<v Speaker 1>who had a video that was just shocking in and

0:25:09.800 --> 0:25:14.240
<v Speaker 1>and he intentionally uh said what was said in order

0:25:14.280 --> 0:25:20.160
<v Speaker 1>to be shocking, and uh it was just appalling racist stuff.

0:25:20.280 --> 0:25:22.280
<v Speaker 1>And as he said, these are people who wear the

0:25:22.320 --> 0:25:25.600
<v Speaker 1>realtor's badge. And and that was what he thought why

0:25:25.640 --> 0:25:28.880
<v Speaker 1>he thought it was so necessary to create this formal policy.

0:25:29.720 --> 0:25:31.760
<v Speaker 1>And so where do you think we go from here?

0:25:31.800 --> 0:25:34.480
<v Speaker 1>What will be the next chapter in this story when

0:25:34.480 --> 0:25:40.920
<v Speaker 1>we think about having this conversation, for example, in December, Well,

0:25:40.960 --> 0:25:43.960
<v Speaker 1>the next chapter is is really this focus on the Commission.

0:25:44.480 --> 0:25:48.120
<v Speaker 1>That the Commission in the US a four to six

0:25:48.119 --> 0:25:52.720
<v Speaker 1>percent is unusual worldwide. Uh. In many other countries like

0:25:52.760 --> 0:25:56.280
<v Speaker 1>the UK and Sweden, people pay two percent or less

0:25:56.320 --> 0:26:00.000
<v Speaker 1>on on house sales, and that the Commission is under

0:26:00.080 --> 0:26:03.960
<v Speaker 1>threat and to class action lawsuits in Illinois Missouri, and

0:26:04.040 --> 0:26:06.800
<v Speaker 1>you also have to Justice Department investigating it as a

0:26:06.840 --> 0:26:11.879
<v Speaker 1>potential antitrust violation. So uh Any in addition to that,

0:26:11.920 --> 0:26:15.760
<v Speaker 1>you have discount brokers and increasingly coming into the market. Uh.

0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:19.880
<v Speaker 1>So although the realtors are a powerful trade group, they're

0:26:19.880 --> 0:26:23.000
<v Speaker 1>actually the largest trade group in the country, they are

0:26:23.080 --> 0:26:27.080
<v Speaker 1>not They're proving not immune to competition and change in

0:26:27.119 --> 0:26:30.080
<v Speaker 1>their industry. Well, it's such a relevant story because we

0:26:30.119 --> 0:26:32.800
<v Speaker 1>think about we talk often about wealth creation, and it's

0:26:32.840 --> 0:26:35.199
<v Speaker 1>no longer just about income creations, about wealth creation and

0:26:35.200 --> 0:26:37.560
<v Speaker 1>the gaps that we've see in between, in particular black

0:26:37.560 --> 0:26:40.280
<v Speaker 1>and white Americans. You include in your story, the racial

0:26:40.280 --> 0:26:42.760
<v Speaker 1>wealth gap has been stubborn. In twenty nine team the

0:26:42.800 --> 0:26:45.240
<v Speaker 1>typical black family had just over one tenth the net

0:26:45.240 --> 0:26:48.159
<v Speaker 1>worth of the typical white family, in part because of

0:26:48.200 --> 0:26:50.400
<v Speaker 1>the value of their homes. The gulf and home ownership

0:26:50.480 --> 0:26:53.680
<v Speaker 1>also persists. About seventy of white families own a home

0:26:53.720 --> 0:26:58.119
<v Speaker 1>among black families, it's that is a significant gap in

0:26:58.200 --> 0:27:00.960
<v Speaker 1>terms of gaps. You talk about the ability of Black

0:27:01.000 --> 0:27:04.800
<v Speaker 1>Americans to own homes, but you also talk about, you know,

0:27:05.520 --> 0:27:09.080
<v Speaker 1>the discrimination that black realtors are also seeing themselves. It's

0:27:09.119 --> 0:27:12.639
<v Speaker 1>not been easy. Yeah, Well, I spent a lot of

0:27:12.640 --> 0:27:16.080
<v Speaker 1>time with a realtor named Dale Taylor in Mathison, Illinois,

0:27:16.119 --> 0:27:20.360
<v Speaker 1>which is a suburb south of Chicago, and he's seen

0:27:20.400 --> 0:27:24.640
<v Speaker 1>the effects over over the decades he's had white homeowners

0:27:25.119 --> 0:27:27.640
<v Speaker 1>pull pull a gun on clients of his and telling

0:27:27.720 --> 0:27:32.480
<v Speaker 1>you better. I think elsewhere he's seen brokerage is moved

0:27:32.560 --> 0:27:36.760
<v Speaker 1>from the South suburbs to areas around Chicago that they

0:27:36.800 --> 0:27:40.480
<v Speaker 1>think might have more white uh client, more of a

0:27:40.480 --> 0:27:44.720
<v Speaker 1>white clienteles, as he put it, um and and what

0:27:44.840 --> 0:27:48.119
<v Speaker 1>happened there. It also really illustrates just how far reaching

0:27:48.280 --> 0:27:53.720
<v Speaker 1>damagees because in the eighties Mathison and another town called Frankfort. Peter,

0:27:54.080 --> 0:27:56.000
<v Speaker 1>forgive us. We have to jump in because the presents

0:27:56.000 --> 0:28:02.760
<v Speaker 1>about to make some comments. Peter Robison there im road. Yeah,

0:28:02.880 --> 0:28:04.960
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no,

0:28:05.200 --> 0:28:11.399
<v Speaker 1>this is not a leave. I'll do the right gravels.

0:28:11.840 --> 0:28:16.680
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive. It's a good question. But drive.

0:28:19.520 --> 0:28:26.520
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the Globe Well on Bluebird Radio. Alright, folks,

0:28:26.560 --> 0:28:28.680
<v Speaker 1>just got about ten minutes left in today's trading session.

0:28:28.720 --> 0:28:31.159
<v Speaker 1>Here Doug Chrisner breakdown the trade. We're just coming off

0:28:31.160 --> 0:28:33.640
<v Speaker 1>our highs of this session, but nonetheless definitely a risk

0:28:33.720 --> 0:28:37.200
<v Speaker 1>on trade feared really too much in the markets today.

0:28:37.520 --> 0:28:39.400
<v Speaker 1>Let's get to it. The Drive to the Close with

0:28:39.520 --> 0:28:42.520
<v Speaker 1>Dave Gilreath. He is Managing Director, chief investment Officer and

0:28:42.560 --> 0:28:47.120
<v Speaker 1>Innovative Portfolios joining us on the phone from Indianapolis. Innovative

0:28:47.160 --> 0:28:50.560
<v Speaker 1>Portfolios by the Way, a money management firm for registered

0:28:50.600 --> 0:28:53.320
<v Speaker 1>investment advisors. Hey, Dave, good to have you here with

0:28:53.440 --> 0:28:56.840
<v Speaker 1>Katie and myself. It's been an interesting couple of days.

0:28:56.880 --> 0:29:00.720
<v Speaker 1>We're bouncing back here today. How do you see the

0:29:00.760 --> 0:29:04.360
<v Speaker 1>market environment fundamentally? Does it look like we are headed

0:29:04.400 --> 0:29:08.000
<v Speaker 1>from more gains heading into the new year or less? Okay,

0:29:08.800 --> 0:29:11.400
<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me back high, Katie and Uh. I

0:29:11.440 --> 0:29:14.120
<v Speaker 1>appreciate the invite, and thanks for having me on the

0:29:14.240 --> 0:29:20.920
<v Speaker 1>darkest day of Yeah, it's getting getting lighter from here on.

0:29:21.080 --> 0:29:25.560
<v Speaker 1>So that's the good news, right. Um, as far as fundamentally,

0:29:25.680 --> 0:29:31.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean, COVID is improving. UM, I think most of

0:29:31.640 --> 0:29:33.280
<v Speaker 1>us a lot a year ago say that it had

0:29:33.320 --> 0:29:36.880
<v Speaker 1>been probably in the rear view mirror. But it is improving.

0:29:36.920 --> 0:29:41.120
<v Speaker 1>And you know that it was the economy was, and

0:29:41.320 --> 0:29:43.440
<v Speaker 1>a lot of other things were in complete chaos on

0:29:43.480 --> 0:29:46.720
<v Speaker 1>the way into the pandemic. And now we're coming out

0:29:46.760 --> 0:29:50.200
<v Speaker 1>of the pandemic maybe, I think, at least slowly. Uh.

0:29:50.280 --> 0:29:52.080
<v Speaker 1>And so I don't know why people are surprised that

0:29:52.120 --> 0:29:54.880
<v Speaker 1>it's chaotic on the lay out, but you know there

0:29:54.960 --> 0:29:58.080
<v Speaker 1>there is some chaos, but there's you know, supply chain

0:29:58.200 --> 0:30:02.480
<v Speaker 1>is improving. I mean even the semiconductor people are saying

0:30:02.480 --> 0:30:05.880
<v Speaker 1>that today, and most big corporations are saying that. And

0:30:06.920 --> 0:30:10.880
<v Speaker 1>inflation is a problem, but um, you know, maybe it's not.

0:30:12.960 --> 0:30:15.560
<v Speaker 1>It might not be here to stay. So wait, I'm sorry,

0:30:15.560 --> 0:30:17.680
<v Speaker 1>are you glass half full of glass half empty? I

0:30:17.720 --> 0:30:21.000
<v Speaker 1>can't tell am I what I'm sorry, glass half full

0:30:21.040 --> 0:30:23.720
<v Speaker 1>or glass half empty at this point, glass half full,

0:30:24.040 --> 0:30:25.959
<v Speaker 1>glass half fall. But people would tell me I've been

0:30:25.960 --> 0:30:28.640
<v Speaker 1>class half full of my whole life. So um. But

0:30:28.760 --> 0:30:30.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean, commodity prices will take care of themselves. They

0:30:30.840 --> 0:30:34.360
<v Speaker 1>always do. And in fact, the CRB index, which is

0:30:34.600 --> 0:30:37.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's index, are like nineteen different commodities that

0:30:37.800 --> 0:30:39.880
<v Speaker 1>we use all the time. It's down from a tie

0:30:39.960 --> 0:30:42.160
<v Speaker 1>in October, and it seems to be going in the

0:30:42.200 --> 0:30:46.160
<v Speaker 1>right direction. Um. And labor, you know, labor is they're

0:30:46.160 --> 0:30:49.080
<v Speaker 1>flexing their muscles right now, which they can, and I

0:30:49.120 --> 0:30:51.920
<v Speaker 1>don't blame them, but union labor is still it's only

0:30:51.960 --> 0:30:55.080
<v Speaker 1>like of all the jobs in the US, So you know,

0:30:55.160 --> 0:30:57.640
<v Speaker 1>the union wage pressure isn't what it used to be.

0:30:58.240 --> 0:31:02.440
<v Speaker 1>So the evaluation of the market isn't cheap um anyway

0:31:02.480 --> 0:31:06.720
<v Speaker 1>it slice it. But earning should grow pretty well next year.

0:31:07.160 --> 0:31:09.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the estimate for the SMP is like two

0:31:09.680 --> 0:31:12.360
<v Speaker 1>thirty bucks, so you would think the SMP could go

0:31:12.400 --> 0:31:18.200
<v Speaker 1>to without you know, some other big surprise coming and

0:31:18.280 --> 0:31:22.040
<v Speaker 1>hitting across the face. And Dave, I want to talk

0:31:22.080 --> 0:31:24.040
<v Speaker 1>more about inflation because you mentioned I mean, if you

0:31:24.040 --> 0:31:26.280
<v Speaker 1>look at results from Micron from Nike just in the

0:31:26.320 --> 0:31:29.760
<v Speaker 1>past twenty four hours, therere maybe some signs that the

0:31:29.840 --> 0:31:33.360
<v Speaker 1>supply chains are un snarling themselves. But the fact that

0:31:33.400 --> 0:31:35.520
<v Speaker 1>now we're dealing with a Macron that we could see

0:31:35.520 --> 0:31:38.400
<v Speaker 1>more variants to come, I mean, does that introduce the

0:31:38.440 --> 0:31:42.440
<v Speaker 1>possibility that supply chains come under even more pressure and

0:31:42.480 --> 0:31:47.520
<v Speaker 1>maybe that feeds into inflation. UM. Well, good question, Katie.

0:31:47.560 --> 0:31:50.320
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. The earlier today you had someone on

0:31:50.560 --> 0:31:54.360
<v Speaker 1>that was talking about how the UM the movement that

0:31:54.480 --> 0:31:56.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, I attracted People's movement and all that in

0:31:56.640 --> 0:31:58.360
<v Speaker 1>Asia and how it's been going to up and up

0:31:58.360 --> 0:32:01.280
<v Speaker 1>and up every month, which tells you. That kind of

0:32:01.320 --> 0:32:04.520
<v Speaker 1>tells me the supply chains are probably improving and not

0:32:04.600 --> 0:32:07.840
<v Speaker 1>getting worse, so and I think they will. And as

0:32:07.880 --> 0:32:09.640
<v Speaker 1>far as variants go, I mean, we're going to have

0:32:10.080 --> 0:32:11.560
<v Speaker 1>it seems like we're going to have more and more

0:32:11.640 --> 0:32:15.840
<v Speaker 1>variants all the time. Um, But we're starting to learn

0:32:15.920 --> 0:32:17.760
<v Speaker 1>to live with that. I mean, in the Midwest anyway,

0:32:17.800 --> 0:32:20.400
<v Speaker 1>the malls, you know, they couldn't find a parking lot

0:32:20.440 --> 0:32:22.920
<v Speaker 1>at lunch today, and or parking space and the parking

0:32:22.920 --> 0:32:25.880
<v Speaker 1>lot at lunch today, and office buildings there may be

0:32:25.960 --> 0:32:28.040
<v Speaker 1>not full, but there's quite a few people in them.

0:32:28.200 --> 0:32:30.800
<v Speaker 1>So it seems like we're learning to live with all

0:32:30.800 --> 0:32:34.560
<v Speaker 1>of this. Um. It does feel like we understand, We've

0:32:34.600 --> 0:32:37.240
<v Speaker 1>seen the playbook, We've got some tools. But I'm curious, though,

0:32:37.320 --> 0:32:39.560
<v Speaker 1>Dave is, all right, where are you putting money to work?

0:32:39.600 --> 0:32:42.440
<v Speaker 1>From my understanding, you guys, you know, are really leaning

0:32:42.480 --> 0:32:44.560
<v Speaker 1>in big time when it comes to industrials, names like

0:32:44.600 --> 0:32:47.160
<v Speaker 1>snap On, like commins um talk to us a little

0:32:47.160 --> 0:32:50.360
<v Speaker 1>bit about that play right, So our firm, we kind

0:32:50.360 --> 0:32:52.760
<v Speaker 1>of focus on downside risk of a stock versus the

0:32:52.840 --> 0:32:56.280
<v Speaker 1>upside potential UM and in one of the strategies when

0:32:56.280 --> 0:32:59.400
<v Speaker 1>you're mentioning, we combine the div it into Chiever's index,

0:32:59.440 --> 0:33:02.560
<v Speaker 1>which is the fifty or so stocks that have raised

0:33:02.600 --> 0:33:04.600
<v Speaker 1>are diving into every year for a decade at least,

0:33:05.200 --> 0:33:09.200
<v Speaker 1>and then we score them with these downside resk risk metrics,

0:33:09.320 --> 0:33:11.960
<v Speaker 1>and then we buy fifty stocks and we reconstitute the

0:33:11.960 --> 0:33:15.440
<v Speaker 1>list twice a year UM and right now and so

0:33:15.520 --> 0:33:17.320
<v Speaker 1>the stocks kind of fall through the funnel that we

0:33:17.320 --> 0:33:21.200
<v Speaker 1>don't necessarily make conscious decision to buy certain groups or anything.

0:33:21.880 --> 0:33:24.960
<v Speaker 1>But right now half of the positions are industrials UM,

0:33:25.040 --> 0:33:27.720
<v Speaker 1>which to me is interesting given the fact that there's

0:33:27.760 --> 0:33:31.320
<v Speaker 1>been so much uncertainy of the market, so um, you know,

0:33:31.600 --> 0:33:34.960
<v Speaker 1>right now. And then over and above just buying the

0:33:35.000 --> 0:33:38.600
<v Speaker 1>stocks and holding them, we do an option overlay using

0:33:38.800 --> 0:33:43.320
<v Speaker 1>SMP index options to UH. We use set credit spreads

0:33:43.320 --> 0:33:45.800
<v Speaker 1>and add a little bit of income like three four

0:33:46.080 --> 0:33:49.760
<v Speaker 1>basis points a year. So right now, the industrial I think,

0:33:49.760 --> 0:33:52.760
<v Speaker 1>are very cheap. If you look at the x l

0:33:52.840 --> 0:33:58.000
<v Speaker 1>I which is the spider for the industrials h that chart.

0:33:58.040 --> 0:34:00.000
<v Speaker 1>If you look at it, it's been building this bay

0:34:00.440 --> 0:34:03.880
<v Speaker 1>for months and months and months. Uh. And the industrials

0:34:03.880 --> 0:34:06.960
<v Speaker 1>as a group have a pretty low forward pe. And

0:34:07.120 --> 0:34:09.839
<v Speaker 1>the ones that I had mentioned to you, snap On

0:34:10.520 --> 0:34:13.600
<v Speaker 1>Cummins a b M Industries, which is a stock not

0:34:13.640 --> 0:34:16.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people have heard of, all have really

0:34:16.080 --> 0:34:19.560
<v Speaker 1>low pees forward pees like in the you know, thirteen

0:34:19.600 --> 0:34:24.759
<v Speaker 1>fourteen twelve kind of area. Um, and and if not

0:34:24.840 --> 0:34:27.040
<v Speaker 1>really if, I mean, I think it's pretty evident that

0:34:27.560 --> 0:34:30.680
<v Speaker 1>the global economies are starting to chug back to life

0:34:30.800 --> 0:34:34.960
<v Speaker 1>in a pretty good way. Um, the industrial should continue

0:34:35.000 --> 0:34:38.560
<v Speaker 1>to pick up steam. And Dave just quickly curious how

0:34:38.640 --> 0:34:41.719
<v Speaker 1>you feel about tech, because I mean, I don't think

0:34:41.760 --> 0:34:46.280
<v Speaker 1>anyone would accuse that sector of being inexpensive or chief,

0:34:46.360 --> 0:34:48.360
<v Speaker 1>but it just seems like you can't keep that sector

0:34:48.400 --> 0:34:51.600
<v Speaker 1>down for too long. Yeah, the big tech isn't all

0:34:51.640 --> 0:34:55.120
<v Speaker 1>that expensive quite honestly. Some of the small to the

0:34:55.200 --> 0:34:57.880
<v Speaker 1>unprofitable tech, I guess you might call it um you know,

0:34:57.920 --> 0:35:01.200
<v Speaker 1>the ones that don't have really earnings those have those

0:35:01.239 --> 0:35:04.359
<v Speaker 1>got really expensive and they've been falling back to earth

0:35:04.360 --> 0:35:08.040
<v Speaker 1>pretty rapidly. But the big tech, you know, I mean

0:35:08.080 --> 0:35:11.879
<v Speaker 1>the big ones that everybody you know, the uh, Microsoft

0:35:11.920 --> 0:35:14.040
<v Speaker 1>and the Google and Facebook and those kind of things,

0:35:14.040 --> 0:35:18.080
<v Speaker 1>those are not particularly expensive right now, and they're continuing

0:35:18.120 --> 0:35:20.040
<v Speaker 1>to gain market share and make money. And they've got

0:35:20.560 --> 0:35:23.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, bazillion dollars of cash on their balance sheets,

0:35:23.640 --> 0:35:25.680
<v Speaker 1>and they're buying back stocks. I mean, that's another thing

0:35:25.719 --> 0:35:29.759
<v Speaker 1>that supports the market, is is the stock buybacks at

0:35:29.760 --> 0:35:31.880
<v Speaker 1>the end of the third quarter was the biggest. You know,

0:35:31.920 --> 0:35:34.879
<v Speaker 1>there's an all time record. So corporate executive has got

0:35:34.880 --> 0:35:37.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of heat. And but it's it's certain it's

0:35:37.719 --> 0:35:40.279
<v Speaker 1>certainly what makes stocks moves. And whenever we see it,

0:35:40.320 --> 0:35:42.520
<v Speaker 1>you know they cross, whether it's on an earnings announcement

0:35:42.600 --> 0:35:45.480
<v Speaker 1>or other, you definitely see a lot of action on

0:35:45.520 --> 0:35:47.959
<v Speaker 1>the stock when when they talk about buybacks. Hey, listen,

0:35:48.000 --> 0:35:49.960
<v Speaker 1>we've got to run. Dave, thank you so much. Happy

0:35:50.200 --> 0:35:54.440
<v Speaker 1>New Year's Stay safe. Dave Gilreathi's managing director, chief investment

0:35:54.520 --> 0:35:58.200
<v Speaker 1>officer over at Innovative Portfolio. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg

0:35:58.239 --> 0:36:01.960
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg

0:36:02.000 --> 0:36:03.839
<v Speaker 1>dot com, and you can also listen to our radio

0:36:03.880 --> 0:36:06.480
<v Speaker 1>show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch

0:36:06.520 --> 0:36:08.839
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