1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: The Favorite podcast is presented by FanDuel Sports Book. There's 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: no better place to make every moment more than with FanDuel. 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,319 Speaker 1: I bet with FanDuel because they're safe and secure, they 4 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: offer great odds and markets across the NBA, n h L, 5 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: and more, and because it's fun to combine multiple bets 6 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: into same game parlays. So if you're new, just download 7 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 1: the FanDuel Sports Book app to get started now. Sign 8 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 1: up with promo code Favorites so they know I sent 9 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 1: you. You You must be over in president in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, 10 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia or Louisiana. 11 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred next step or text 12 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,279 Speaker 1: next step to five three three four two in Arizona 13 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash 14 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey. In Virginia one eight 15 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 1: seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG 16 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight seven zero 17 00:00:56,880 --> 00:00:59,279 Speaker 1: seven one one seven for confidential help in Michigan one 18 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 1: eight seventh having seven zero s t O P in 19 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 1: Louisiana called the Tennessee Redline one eight eight nine nine, 20 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: or visit one eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. 21 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. 22 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 1: I'm Chad Molman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. 23 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 1: It's almost time for baseball season. We are days away 24 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: from First Pitch. Colin wood Church, Action Network, Senior editor 25 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: for Baseball Shan's Reelo, long time senior writer, senior baseball analysts. 26 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: You can see him all over the airways on MLB Network. 27 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: You see him on Action Network. They've got a brand 28 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: new podcast, first episode launching. It's called Payoff Pitch Simon. 29 00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: How excited are we for baseball? My professional betting BFF 30 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 1: companion Capadre Cheah, this is the best time of year. 31 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: We got the very end of March madness, we got 32 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: playoffs coming up in hockey, playoffs coming up in basketball, 33 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: and the start of the MLB season where I literally 34 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: lose all my betting money on MLB the first two weeks, 35 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 1: and then I come back probably mid July to start 36 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:18,800 Speaker 1: losing some more money. So I just bet way too 37 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 1: much when it comes back because I'm just so fired 38 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: up where it's like, oh, first five innings, give it 39 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: to me, all of it. I just wanted. Also, I 40 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: am so happy that lockout ended and it's back. I 41 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: missed baseball. Well, look, this is what's cool. You know, 42 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: Collins spent years at Baseball Prospectus, right, he comes at 43 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 1: it from a very specific point of view. Zarilla, we 44 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: know dig so deep into the data. That's literally every 45 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 1: single baseball game. And there are so many different markets 46 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 1: for baseball. You can be betting run line first five, 47 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: you can be betting totals. It doesn't really matter, like 48 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: the way you can bet this sport now, there's so 49 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: many opportunities. It's a grind, like you gotta keep up 50 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: with it. And that's what Sean and Colin are four. 51 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: That's why they're here. I always love this because Sean 52 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 1: will come on at the beginning of the baseball season 53 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: and I'm going a little more in death because we 54 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: have so many new listeners, like some people don't know 55 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 1: that much about betting baseball and sort of the joys 56 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 1: of betting baseball. When when you come on, Sean, you 57 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: will give us like the long shots of the long shots, 58 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:22,959 Speaker 1: and by the end of the year. We're like all 59 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 1: these games that he talked about in March, it's now 60 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:30,839 Speaker 1: these teams. It's coming to fruition. Sean Zarrillo can't wait 61 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 1: for you guys to get started. I can't either, chat. 62 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: I've got fifty futures beats already in the Action Network app. 63 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: I've been firing on stat prop leaders all day. So 64 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 1: like most hits, most runs, most RBIs, picture wins, picture 65 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: strike out, stuff like that. So we're digging into the 66 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: player data. Finally put out all of my World Series 67 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: futures and divisional futures last week, but we've moved on 68 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 1: to the player projections. Going to get into some m 69 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: vps and Cy Young's next week, right before the season 70 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 1: starts too. All right, well, listen, that's that I do 71 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 1: want to sort of break this down in very specific ways. 72 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 1: I want us to go World Series futures, a couple 73 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 1: of season win totals. Then I'm gonna want I want 74 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: to get a little bit into some of this sort 75 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 1: of more glamorous player props. Okay, Colin, since you're relatively 76 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: new to the podcast, you're one year into your reign 77 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 1: as baseball editor at Action Network. He started exactly a 78 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: year ago, almost when baseball season was starting. Now's your chance, 79 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 1: wow us with your World Series future. Bet I'm gonna 80 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: go with the Toronto Blue Jays plus nine hundred to 81 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: win the World Series. Look, if the Blue Jays had 82 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: the name Boston or New York across the front of 83 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 1: their jersey, I think people would be hyping them up 84 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:46,599 Speaker 1: a lot more than they are currently. This is the 85 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 1: best team in a loaded a L East. They lost 86 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 1: Marcus Simeon and Robbie Ray in the off season, but 87 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 1: brought in Kevin Gaussman, who is a legitimate ace to 88 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: replace Ray. They brought in Matt Chapman, who had a 89 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: down your offensively last year. It's gonna improve their defense. 90 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 1: It's a lot and probably rebound with the stick. The 91 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 1: rotation is insanely deep, with five established major league pictures, 92 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: and that's before you even get two guys like Ross Stripling, 93 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 1: who's accompetant swing man. Nor Nate Pearson, a top prospect 94 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: not all that long ago, who's dealt with injuries in 95 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 1: the last few years. Anything they get from him is 96 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:18,599 Speaker 1: just an added bonus. Their bullpends a little bit of 97 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:22,280 Speaker 1: a question mark. They have a lot of established competent 98 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: Major league leaguers. They're like Adam Stimber, you mean Garcia. 99 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 1: Jordan Romero is a closer that everyone's going to be 100 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 1: grabbing in their fantasy leagues if they haven't already. He 101 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 1: doesn't have a lot of name recognition, but again has 102 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: a chance to be one of the top closers in 103 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:37,719 Speaker 1: the league. Their win total right now is two and 104 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 1: a half, So I obviously like the over there. That's 105 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 1: one of my favorite bets. But World Series odds at 106 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 1: plus nine hundred right now, that's right in line with 107 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,680 Speaker 1: the Yankees. But they're significantly better team than the Yankees, 108 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: significantly better team than the Red Sox, so I really 109 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: like them at plus nine hundred. I gotta say even 110 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:59,160 Speaker 1: only as the as the Blue Jays. Their odds are 111 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 1: the second short it's the Dodgers and then the Blue Jays. 112 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:04,280 Speaker 1: And you make the point about if it was Boston 113 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 1: or if it was the Yankees, that's like how much 114 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:10,479 Speaker 1: respect they're already getting from the market that if someone 115 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: is just coming to baseball, if so all someone knows 116 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: about baseball is the bravest one in the World Series. 117 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: They hibernated, they woke up they found out Will Smith 118 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 1: slapped Chris Rock and that the Baseball Block had it ended, 119 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 1: they'd be like Blue Jays plus nine hundred, Zerillo. How 120 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 1: did this happen? How did this team get so good? 121 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 1: And they continually added throughout the off season. And you 122 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: know what's really interesting is they weren't second in odds 123 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 1: until last Tuesday or Wednesday chat when my article dropped, 124 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:41,479 Speaker 1: they were sitting behind the Yankees. They were around spots. 125 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: My article dropped, there were plus nine within ninety minutes. 126 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 1: I know we moved that number. I know our listeners 127 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: move that number when we put out content and we 128 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 1: say there's a good numbered bet. Forget my projections, right, 129 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: look at fan grass projections very similar to my projections. 130 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: Fan Grass has the Jast to win the Division twelve 131 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,479 Speaker 1: three pcent to win the World Series. That should be 132 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 1: around plus one plus seven hundred, respectively. I think there's 133 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:06,719 Speaker 1: still value in the Jay's number. That's my biggest World 134 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: Series bet, got it? I have a unit and a 135 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 1: quarter on the Jason won the World Series. The other 136 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: two World Series teams that I sprinkled, I have a 137 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 1: half unit on the Brewers at sixteen one, and I 138 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: have a quarter unit on the Phillies at forty two one. 139 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: I think getting the second seed, particularly me and l 140 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 1: is going to be very very important. You get two 141 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: teams with the bye this year, so advancing to the 142 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: second round there's that three game wild Card series, So 143 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 1: getting that second spot, getting that second by and moving 144 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: on is gonna be very important. And I would imagine 145 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: that the Brewers, given the relative strength or the weakness 146 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: of the teams in their division, are gonna have a 147 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: good shot of pulling that off. Dodgers plus five hundred 148 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: Blue Jays plus nine hundred Astros plus a thousand White 149 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 1: Sox plus eleven hundred Yankees plus eleven hundred Raised plus 150 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: eleven hundred Mets plus eleven fifty. Then you've got the 151 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: Braves and Brewers plus eleven fifty. Uh, and then plus two. 152 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 1: It's interesting to me, Simon, I apologize. I just want 153 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: to get this one point out that teams like the 154 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: White Sox, teams, like the Mets teams, like the Braves, teams, 155 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: like the Brewers, they were all in that same category 156 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: last year, like teams that were creeping into the upper 157 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 1: echelon of the shortest odds getting the most action that's 158 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 1: a pretty significant see change to me, Colin, Like, now, 159 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 1: for the second year in a row, you're getting these 160 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 1: teams that have moved beyond oh, this would be a surprise, 161 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 1: and Fluke to, oh, yeah, this is the expectation. Yeah, 162 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 1: it's it. It is the expectation now. I think I 163 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 1: think people have have started to look past the will 164 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: they and now it's moving to the why haven't they yet? 165 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: You know you mentioned the White Sox. Obviously it's a 166 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 1: team that I know very well. It's World Series expectation. 167 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: I think after what we saw from the Brewers last 168 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 1: year and with their top three starting pitchers of Corven Burns, 169 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 1: Brandon Woodruff and Freddie Peralta, it's no longer wow, we 170 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: really have a shot. It's we need to do this 171 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 1: and we should do this. And I think betters are 172 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: recognizing that as well, where there's more of an expectation. Um, 173 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:22,160 Speaker 1: you know some of the regular contenders from years past, 174 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: the Yankees, the Red Sox, you know, they haven't been 175 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 1: there in a while now, so it's it's more wide 176 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 1: open than ever. We saw the Braves win the World 177 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 1: Series for the first time in almost thirty years last year. 178 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: The Razor right in there all the time. Now nobody 179 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: they They're not sneaking up on anyone anymore. The Rays aren't, 180 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: the Brewers aren't, etcetera. There's now more of an expectation 181 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:45,959 Speaker 1: for these teams. They're the new heavyweights, you know, and 182 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: and people are starting to recognize that instead of just 183 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:50,959 Speaker 1: going with the traditional powers and then letting these other 184 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 1: teams sneak up on them. All the pressures on showing 185 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:55,320 Speaker 1: this year because last year at this point he gave 186 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: us Brewers last year, which was an amazing call, and 187 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: Houston Astros, which again was an amazing call. The market 188 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 1: is caught up this year. Obviously. This season, these teams 189 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: that kind of had these sleeper SATs like Check and 190 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: I touched on aren't really there. I kind of look 191 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 1: when then there are seasons like this with baseball. I 192 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 1: looked a bet on teams where I feel like I'm 193 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 1: just talking a little bit where Boston's down a little 194 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:19,959 Speaker 1: bit there one right now and Vandel is that a 195 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 1: sneaky team where people are just down on them this season, 196 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:24,320 Speaker 1: where I've looked at their prospects they have coming up, 197 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 1: I've seen their bullpend, their pictures like that, there just 198 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: seems like there's a lot of upside to this Boston 199 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 1: team where people are gonna be all talking about the 200 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,599 Speaker 1: Blue Jays, everyone's talking about the Yankees, and I just 201 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 1: see there's gonna be value in this Boston team this 202 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 1: upcoming season. What do you think, Sean? So I followed 203 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: five different projections in addition to making my own, and 204 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: pretty much everybody has the same order of Blue Jays 205 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: or Yankees one or two, raise three in Red Sox four, 206 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 1: and there's you know, very very similar projections between the 207 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,199 Speaker 1: Rais and the Red Sox. That said, year over year, 208 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 1: the Rays continue to get under projected. They're usually three 209 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:57,080 Speaker 1: or four wins underneath their win total when you average 210 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: out the market projections, and because I factor defense more 211 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 1: and other things, I tend to be more in line 212 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 1: with the Rays. So I actually have the Rays ahead 213 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 1: of the Yankees so far by about you know, half 214 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: a win, two tenths of a win have them both 215 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 1: closer to ninety one, and then I have a tear 216 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 1: drop sort of to the Red Sox closer to six points, 217 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 1: so I can see them threatening for a wild guard spot. 218 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: But I don't know if those odds are really going 219 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,559 Speaker 1: to get you know, much better or much worse throughout 220 00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:21,839 Speaker 1: the year. I think they're going to kind of stay 221 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: in the same range just because it's so difficult, even 222 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 1: with the expanded playoffs to imagine them getting past at 223 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 1: least two, if not three, teams in their division. Hold 224 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: on a second, Simon, when are you doing research on 225 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:38,839 Speaker 1: prospects and bullpens fantasy baseball season? Man, I I'm all in. 226 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 1: I told you, I go all in hardcore for like 227 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 1: a month here and then I get back into football draft. 228 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:46,840 Speaker 1: So this is like my time for baseball. I love it. 229 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 1: I mean again, I grew up on that Phillies two 230 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: thousand two two runs, So it's like I grew up 231 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:55,959 Speaker 1: in the best era I could possibly live in for 232 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: Philadelphia baseball. So I just love baseball. If we look 233 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:03,560 Speaker 1: down the future Zadd's page, if we want to get 234 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: the most bang for our buck, who are we looking at? Say, 235 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: from the l A Angels at one down, you got 236 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 1: the Angels, the Mariners, the Giants, the Cardinals, the Phillies 237 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:23,119 Speaker 1: all in that thirty one range. Sean, you mentioned the Phillies, obviously, 238 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 1: who else are we talking about here? In like long 239 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: long range Colin. I want to give you a team 240 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 1: that I know Sean's going to disagree with here, a 241 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 1: very contentious team among the the MLB writers here at 242 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: the Action Network, and that's the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners 243 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 1: haven't been to the postseason in twenty two years. Two 244 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: thousand one, when they won a hundred and sixteen games 245 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 1: and got bounced in the playoffs. That was the last 246 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 1: time we saw the Seattle Mariners in the playoffs. I'm 247 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: drinking the Mariners koolid. This year, they added Robbie Ray 248 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 1: to the rotation. They have one of the best farm 249 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: systems in baseball. We're gonna see Julio Rodrigue as this year. 250 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 1: We're gonna see Jared Kelenett, who we saw a little 251 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 1: bit last year struggle, still one of the top young 252 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 1: talents in baseball. They're brimming with young guys who are 253 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 1: ready to make that leap. Chad, you talked about teams 254 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 1: that were kind of under the radar waiting to make 255 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,079 Speaker 1: the leap. The Mariners are the next team on that list. 256 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:19,720 Speaker 1: They're gonna break that playoff droute last year. They're gonna 257 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 1: break that playoff route this year. And we're gonna start 258 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 1: seeing them as perennial World Series contenders for years to come. 259 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 1: So I think there's a lot of value on them 260 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 1: in that kind of mid tier range. It's really you 261 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 1: were nodding. You don't hate what witch Church is saying. No, 262 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 1: I mean I get the argument, you know, and I 263 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: get anybody who's buying into Seattle that said, there's a 264 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:42,959 Speaker 1: lot of arguments that I could make going against them, right, 265 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 1: So I improve their true talent projection by ten wins 266 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 1: Over the off season. I upgraded the type of team 267 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 1: they were by ten wins, which was amongst the highest 268 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 1: upgrades I made, but they still overachieved by fourteen wins. 269 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 1: Last year, their run differentials suggested that there should have 270 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: been a seventy win team ended up winning ninety games 271 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: because they led the league in fund differential. There are 272 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:04,079 Speaker 1: the Kings of fun. Now looking around the projection market, right, 273 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 1: there's no bigger disagreement in terms of an under between 274 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:11,199 Speaker 1: the consensus projections and a team other than the Mariners. 275 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 1: I have them projected at seventy nine point seven. The 276 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: market range is as low as seventy six and as 277 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: high as eighty three. So every single projection that I 278 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 1: use likes the Mariners to go under eighty five and 279 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: a half. I actually got an under eighty six and 280 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 1: a half, which I love. I'd probably still bet this 281 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: down to eighty four and a half. Get all the 282 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 1: arguments and the reasons why the Mariners could potentially compete. 283 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 1: I see all the prospects coming up, and frankly, it's 284 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 1: a week a l West this year too. I'm backing 285 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 1: the Angels personally, who was a team I've been against 286 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: the past couple of years. But I just think the 287 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: Mariners are a bit over inflated in their win total. 288 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: It's the high bar to clear. I love how imperious 289 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: Zarrillo can sound when he's talking about his projections and 290 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 1: his rankings. You have to have a level when you're 291 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: when you're making models, which Zillo does, Chris Raybun does it, 292 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: Sean Kroner does it. When you're making models, you have 293 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 1: to have so much confidence in the work that you're doing, 294 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: in the numbers you're creating, because you are betting a 295 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 1: funkload of money on these things on a day to 296 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 1: day basis. Zarillo, how long does it take you to 297 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: build up confidence in that model? It's taking a few years, 298 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 1: you know, and I continue to evolve, right, So it's 299 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: every time I add something, it's almost like I have 300 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: to go through a new trial period of like did 301 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 1: I screw up by adding this element in or is 302 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 1: this going to improve my process? So every time, you know, 303 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: every year and sort of April, I like I changed something, 304 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 1: and then I'm a little bit hesitant about firing more 305 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: aggressively on totals this year too, we have other factors 306 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 1: to consider, like all thirty parks are using humand or 307 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 1: this year they keep swapping out the baseball, so I 308 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 1: might not go as aggressively on totals in April as 309 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 1: I have in years past. But yeah, it's you know, 310 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 1: it's something that if I see a huge disagreement where 311 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: I'm either way low or way high on a team, 312 00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 1: I'm gonna dig into it further. But if I'm sort 313 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 1: of in the range with the rest of the projection market, 314 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: I feel pretty confident that my process is at least sound. 315 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: And you know, I may have a slight difference from 316 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 1: another projection, but as long as I'm within the range 317 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 1: of outcomes, I feel pretty confident. Do you think there 318 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 1: are teams that have better value that you would rather 319 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 1: bet to win the Pennant versus the World Series, Colin, 320 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: you go first. If you're looking at value in that way, 321 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 1: that American League is the way to go, just because 322 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 1: the Dodgers are such a strong favorite in the National 323 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 1: League and we're once it gets to the playoffs, the 324 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: Dodgers are just they're tough to beat. I mean, we 325 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: saw a team beat them last year, but but the 326 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 1: American League is generally the way to go. The team 327 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: I like to look at from a Pennant standpoint is 328 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 1: the Raised. The Rays are always impossible to project. Most 329 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 1: projection systems have been wrong on them for most of 330 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 1: the last five years as they continue to to just 331 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: overstep their their expectations. So they're also a team that 332 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 1: once they get to October, they're even tougher to project 333 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: somehow because of their picture usage, because of the way 334 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 1: they manage their bullpen. Kevin Cash gets a lot of 335 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 1: credit as the manager, but the front office runs that 336 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: that day to day. They're consistently undervalued there, and I 337 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 1: think that at you know, the plus seven fifty plus 338 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,679 Speaker 1: eight hundred range, I I like the value they're just 339 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 1: them to make it because they're gonna get to October. 340 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 1: I think the odds of them getting too October are 341 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:17,880 Speaker 1: very strong, and once they once they make it, their 342 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,159 Speaker 1: their path becomes a lot more clear, and so I 343 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 1: enjoy finding odds in that way. Yeah, I'd see if 344 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 1: you see a number that's more than fifty percent of 345 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,880 Speaker 1: the World Series number, I'd take it. You know, there's 346 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,360 Speaker 1: I think I saw some like plus nine hundred floating 347 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 1: on there on the Brewers where their World Series odds 348 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,159 Speaker 1: are plus six hundreds. So I looked for discrepancies like that, 349 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 1: But by and large, I I rarely bet independent futures 350 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,160 Speaker 1: as opposed to World series features. I love to hear 351 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 1: what you guys think about wind projections because I'm terrible 352 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 1: at it. I always always think like I can do it. 353 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 1: I'll listen to people and I'll try to bet off 354 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,679 Speaker 1: of it and then make my own opinion. But it 355 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:54,119 Speaker 1: really is one of those you need to build a 356 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 1: model and just bet that model because it is so 357 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: we've just seen it comes down to a couple of games. 358 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: I mean, you always have the weird team that go 359 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: over by ten or twenty games, but usually the bookmakers 360 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:05,360 Speaker 1: are so good at it. It really does come down 361 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 1: to maybe four or five games. Yeah, I'd say half 362 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: about half the league every year is within like three 363 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,880 Speaker 1: wins of their win total. It's very night. You have some, 364 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 1: you know, huge outliers, like the Giants last year, who 365 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: were the biggest to ever exceed their win total by 366 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: thirty plus games. They crushed their propota projection as well. 367 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 1: So there's there's two d and two overs that I'm 368 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 1: targeting this year, actually two unders in the ALE and 369 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 1: two overs in the NL. But let's stick with the 370 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 1: ALE because I think those are too much contentious teams. 371 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:34,800 Speaker 1: We talked about the Mariners before, right, I like their 372 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 1: under the Tigers of the other team who were the 373 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: buzz team coming into the year. I grabbed some early 374 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 1: World Series value on them at seventy five to one, 375 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 1: but I didn't really like what they did with their 376 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 1: offseason after that. But meanwhile, their future ZAD just dropped 377 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 1: to that like forty thirty to one range, similar to 378 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 1: the Mariners. Every single projection likes this team to go 379 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,160 Speaker 1: under this year as low as seventies sixty seven point 380 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 1: four the highest seventy five. My projection leans towards the high. 381 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: I'm at seventy three point six, but I got an 382 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 1: early under eighty and a half. I'd continue to bet 383 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 1: this under seventy eight and a half all the way 384 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 1: down to seventy six and a half one over that 385 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 1: I like. My favorite over is the Marlins over seventy 386 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 1: five and a half out there right now. A lot 387 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 1: of projections actually have them finishing closer to five hundred, 388 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 1: which is surprising because this is a very good and 389 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 1: the least division this season. My numbers closer to seventy nine, 390 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 1: and I'm not even a high man on the board. 391 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 1: There's an eighty point one out there from fan Gerralfs. 392 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 1: So Marlin's over seventy five and a half, Mariners under 393 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,479 Speaker 1: seventy eight and a half, and Tigers under seventy eight 394 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,239 Speaker 1: and a half. I should say the Mariners that are 395 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 1: eighty four and a half, that's my bad. Those are 396 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,119 Speaker 1: my three favorite win totals for this season. Tom, what 397 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,959 Speaker 1: are you go? Oh look, Trillo just jumping in and 398 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 1: like trying to direct traffic here, Like it's like you 399 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 1: guys are practicing the payoff pitch right on our show. 400 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: I'll take my queue there. My two favorite wind totals 401 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 1: this year are really ugly. Disgusting wind totals among the 402 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 1: worst teams in baseball, and and I'm buying into the 403 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:54,879 Speaker 1: hype of of how bad these teams are gonna be. 404 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 1: My first one is with the Oakland Athletics. You've all 405 00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: seen the movie Major League. I presume that's what's happening 406 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 1: to the Oakland Athletics right now. Oh yea, but nobody 407 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:13,920 Speaker 1: recognizes us, not even in our own hometown. The Oakland 408 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 1: Athletic ownership is actively trying to make them lose games, 409 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 1: and not necessarily in a way like we saw with 410 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 1: teams like the Cubs in the Astros early last decade, 411 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 1: where they're trying to like save money while while building 412 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: up the super farm. This team is just like outright 413 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 1: making the worst team it possibly can. Its projections are 414 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 1: little high right now because they still have Frankie Montis 415 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 1: and Shaun and I in the rotation, who they've been 416 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,919 Speaker 1: actively shopping all offseason, will probably be moved by July 417 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 1: at the latest. The wind totals right now are seventy 418 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 1: and a half seventy one and a half range. This 419 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 1: is a one lost roster. I don't see anyway this 420 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 1: team doesn't finish in the last place in the a 421 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 1: L West, even behind the Texas Rangers. A hundred losses 422 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 1: are within question. I think that the projections are way 423 00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: too high here. And the second team is the team 424 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 1: that's going to be competing with Oakland for worst record 425 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: in the American League. That's the Baltimore Orioles. Oh no, 426 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 1: we shuck again. This team loses a hundred games every year. 427 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: They're currently projected at sixty two and a half. Like 428 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 1: the A's, they are consistently trying to be bad. They 429 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: don't even tink around the margins. You see a lot 430 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 1: of bad teams like the Pirates, who will make all 431 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 1: these stealth, you know, waiver claims and try to find 432 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: these reclamation projects. Baltimore doesn't do that. They just stand 433 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 1: pat and they sign bad veterans who they're gonna flip 434 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 1: at the deadline. They do have a couple of intriguing 435 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 1: prospects who are coming down the pipeline. Add Lee Rushman, 436 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,200 Speaker 1: a lot of people know a former first overall pick 437 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 1: is going to take over at catcher pretty soon. They 438 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 1: have Grayson Rodriguez, who's one of the most intriguing young 439 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 1: pitching prospects out there. But I don't know if or 440 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: when we're going to see them, and even with them, 441 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: you know, one or two players don't make that big 442 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 1: of a difference in a win total in MLB. I 443 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 1: think we're gonna get another hundred losses. They're going to 444 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 1: be in the fifties again this year. So Oakland and 445 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,719 Speaker 1: Baltimore under if those are my two favorite bets ugly one. 446 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: I love thee I love the stat that next year 447 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,879 Speaker 1: here gets paid more this season than the entire Orioles team, 448 00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,560 Speaker 1: which is pretty incredible. That one guy makes it more 449 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 1: the entire team is going to make Simon actually have 450 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: a max sure as your story, would you like to 451 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 1: hear it? I would love that. When I was a 452 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: student at the University of Missouri Journalism school many many 453 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 1: moons ago, I was in a class and you had 454 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: to cover a Miszoo sporting event. That was the assignment. 455 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,880 Speaker 1: You had to go to the live event and cover 456 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 1: it and then do an a p style right up 457 00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 1: at the game. I put it off and put it off, 458 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,479 Speaker 1: so I didn't have a lot of options. Locked. I 459 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 1: finally decided, you know what, I'll borrow my roommates car 460 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: I'll go to the baseball stadium I'll cover a Friday 461 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:43,200 Speaker 1: night game. It'll end pretty early. I can still drive back, 462 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,640 Speaker 1: type it up, go get hammered, or you know whatever 463 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: I was doing back. Then I go to this game. 464 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:53,520 Speaker 1: There's nobody there. Maszoo's playing. I think, like what Western Illinois, 465 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 1: and this guy, Max chures Or, who I didn't know, 466 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 1: was also a sophomore. He was my my classmate at Zoo, 467 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 1: twenty years old, just like me. He pitches a no 468 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 1: hitter through seven innings. He strikes out fourteen dudes, but 469 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,639 Speaker 1: he's top prospect guy or whatever, so they pull him 470 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 1: in the middle of a no hitter. They bring in 471 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: another guy I think was his name was Michael Cole. 472 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 1: He finishes the no hitter, has no idea a no 473 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,680 Speaker 1: hitters going on. He gets the last out and they 474 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,439 Speaker 1: mob him and he looks totally baffled because it was 475 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: twenty five to nothing the Zoo. I go to one 476 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,920 Speaker 1: baseball game and it was nothing blowout. It's a Max 477 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:34,159 Speaker 1: Scherzer no hitter. Was the first Maszoono hitter, like twenty 478 00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,760 Speaker 1: five years. And then after the game, it's me and 479 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 1: one other dude one on one with Max Scherzer interviewing him. 480 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,199 Speaker 1: On the field for my first interview ever. And I 481 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,320 Speaker 1: do remember he has the two different colored eyes, and 482 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 1: I didn't know that I was so close to him. 483 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 1: It's very disconcerting. That's my Max Scherzer story. And I 484 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 1: assume we're he'd still remember it very well and we're 485 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,320 Speaker 1: best friends. Oh, I have no doubt your best friends perfect. 486 00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, look the Orioles last year, 487 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 1: what do they have a nineteen game losing streak? There 488 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: were a couple of teams last year. The Orioles felt 489 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: like one of them. The Royals felt like one of them, 490 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 1: The Marlins felt like one of them at times where 491 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 1: the every single night you were betting on one of 492 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 1: those teams because the line was so egregious. You know, Zilla, 493 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 1: we always talk about in your projections, like if there's 494 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 1: a two percent edge, a three percent edge, you feel 495 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 1: obligated to bet it. How do you manage that with 496 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 1: teams that you know are going to be terrible? Who's 497 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 1: Who's going into the sports book and is ready to 498 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 1: find an Orioles over? Who's Who's going in the sports 499 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: book and is is going there with the intention of 500 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 1: firing on a pirate's over? I just need to be 501 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,439 Speaker 1: contrarian from the sense that my numbers are coming in 502 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 1: a few wins higher than these teams, regardless of how 503 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,159 Speaker 1: terrible they are. So I you know, you have to 504 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 1: just take the best available number, like Orioles over sixty 505 00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,240 Speaker 1: two and a half. I'm not taking that. I found 506 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 1: it over sixty and so I'm gonna play that. Right 507 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,680 Speaker 1: when you see a number that's you have to set 508 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 1: a cut off before you even go in and look 509 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 1: at the numbers. Where at this number I have to 510 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 1: play because you can't see the number and go get 511 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 1: a little wishy washy about it. So set your targets, 512 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: play your targets, regardless of the name on the front 513 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,440 Speaker 1: of the jersey. It sucks. I'm not gonna lie to you, 514 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 1: but I'd rather lay two units on the Orioles now 515 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,959 Speaker 1: at their win total and not think about it and 516 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 1: then look to play them during the season when you 517 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 1: know they get a three game road series against the 518 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 1: Yankees and their plus three hundred every game. I just 519 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: need them win one of those to come out ahead. 520 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 1: So yeah, that the Diamondbacks, for the other team that 521 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:34,800 Speaker 1: you were thinking of, they had that twenty four game 522 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,399 Speaker 1: road at leasing Street last year, I believe is an 523 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 1: MLB record now, so we're on the diamond Backs over 524 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 1: this year, so best of luck to us. I can't 525 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 1: tell you how many times Sean and I both were 526 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 1: on the same side of Arizona when they were like 527 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 1: plus three hundred last year and they just would break 528 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:51,399 Speaker 1: our heart time and time again. They were. They were 529 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 1: one of the most unlucky teams in baseball last year, 530 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,239 Speaker 1: and like Sean, I'm I'm on the rover as well. 531 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 1: This year they're gonna they're gonna bounce back a little bit. 532 00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 1: They had a lead in like every one of those 533 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 1: games too, and they would just blow at anything. It 534 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,400 Speaker 1: was delightful. How much does a guy like bucks Show 535 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: Walter matter for the Mets. How much of a difference 536 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 1: can he make for win totals, for pennant for World 537 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 1: World Series. That's a good question. Not managers aren't something 538 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 1: that I've tried to like analytically handicap yet or put 539 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:20,480 Speaker 1: a number on. Guys like Kevin Cash. You know, they 540 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 1: work so closely with the front office. It's almost like 541 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 1: the front office and Cash or managing the team is won. 542 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:27,439 Speaker 1: And I think that's more what the Mets are going 543 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,080 Speaker 1: to get out of show Walter. He is a very 544 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 1: anne analytically inclined guy, and I think it's possible that 545 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 1: helps these younger guys developed to instills them with confidence. 546 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,159 Speaker 1: So I I certainly like seeing the Mets make a 547 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,800 Speaker 1: change and going to somebody who's competent as opposed to 548 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,119 Speaker 1: a manager like Luis Rojas who had no major league experience. 549 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,719 Speaker 1: I think that alone is certainly an upgrade. But in 550 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 1: terms of like actually quantifying it or putting a number 551 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 1: on it, and not something I've tried to do yet, 552 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 1: I think it's hard to quantify over the course of 553 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 1: a full season. Also, when I'm looking at managers, I'm 554 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: more looking at October track record. Um, and I know, 555 00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,159 Speaker 1: you know, someone like Tony Larus has a great October 556 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,200 Speaker 1: track record, but but he doesn't have a great track 557 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: record of game management lately. So if I'm looking at 558 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 1: a team with a manager who I know really well, 559 00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,840 Speaker 1: it's like, I'm not gonna go anywhere near a Pennant 560 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 1: or a World Series future for the White Sox because 561 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 1: I just don't trust that when it's in the nitty 562 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 1: griddy and the actual spotlight of every pitch, truly matters 563 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,640 Speaker 1: that the right strings are going to be pulled. Continue 564 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 1: betting the bracket with a bang. Right now, fandul sports 565 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,480 Speaker 1: Book is giving you customers a one hundred and fifty 566 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 1: dollar instant bonus guarantee. 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In Michigan 593 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 1: called the Tennessee Red Line one eight hundred eight eight 594 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 1: nine eight nine, or visit one eight hundred gambler dot 595 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. So we'll start with player props 596 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 1: here Sean last year again, I can't thank you enough, man, 597 00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,120 Speaker 1: I cash huge, Laddie, was I think fifty two one 598 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 1: to lead them all being arm runs. I am almost 599 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 1: positive I was watching the game, but either been his 600 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 1: last at bat or is that bat before it to 601 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,480 Speaker 1: tie the major league lead with the catcher from Kansas City. 602 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 1: I think it was Perez crazy. I mean, honestly one 603 00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:36,719 Speaker 1: of the most fun bets I had, because I had 604 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 1: like five bucks on a fifty bucks on it, a 605 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,480 Speaker 1: hundred bucks, like all these different little bets. I'd made 606 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 1: whatever it was for that last weekly enough to it, 607 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:45,840 Speaker 1: and that to me, that was my biggest hit by 608 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,960 Speaker 1: Foreign Baseball last year. You have any other player props 609 00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 1: this year where you think you have a good shot 610 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 1: at a fifty two one or greater. Uh, I'm gonna 611 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 1: give you an exactly fifty two one. Simon and I 612 00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 1: like this bet just as much we were on Vlad 613 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,840 Speaker 1: most of them round and most RBIs last year around 614 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,400 Speaker 1: the Saint Price Ridge. My guy this year is Kylie Scharber. 615 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 1: I love everything about this bet. I know it. Chadow 616 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 1: likes him. Skylo Scharber fifty one out there at a 617 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,200 Speaker 1: couple of books. So Shoarber pays for forty one home 618 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:13,000 Speaker 1: runs last season. He projects for fifteen roughly this year. 619 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 1: So this is how I do player props right, Like 620 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 1: I look at my projections, I try to bucket guys 621 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 1: based on where their projections are. And then I look 622 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,200 Speaker 1: at the odds board and say, oh, well, this guy's 623 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,840 Speaker 1: bucketed with the He shouldn't be bucketed with the thirty 624 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:27,520 Speaker 1: to one guys, but you're giving me a seventy two 625 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 1: one one. Well, Schobert on the odds board is bucketed 626 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 1: more with the guys in the sixty to one group 627 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 1: when based on projections, he should be in that range. Right. 628 00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,720 Speaker 1: Here's the reason I really liked this bet. Working with 629 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,760 Speaker 1: Kevin Long, new Phillies hitting coach. He was the Nationals 630 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 1: hitting coach last season. If you're not aware of Kevin Long, 631 00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 1: he helped Curtis Granderson unlocked back to back forty home 632 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,800 Speaker 1: run seasons, helped Daniel Murphy double his power output with 633 00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 1: the Mets, went absolutely ballistic in the playoffs, went from 634 00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 1: thirteen to home runs year over year. How and Zimmerman 635 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:04,719 Speaker 1: lake career resurgence. This guy unlocks power. Look at all 636 00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 1: the data for shoreber last season, highest launch angle of 637 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,280 Speaker 1: his career, increases fly ball rate by ten percent, ninth 638 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 1: and barrels pervatd ball event that ranked in the top 639 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 1: ten obviously ranked in the top ten, but amongst guys 640 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 1: like Aaron Judge other superstar power hitters, best hard hit 641 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 1: rate of his career, and he chased pitches outside the 642 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 1: zone less off than it ever before. So improvements across 643 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,520 Speaker 1: the board for Shoreber modified his swing Under Kevin Long, 644 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:29,360 Speaker 1: I think he's probably gonna break that forty home run mark. 645 00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 1: Whether he gets to the top, whether he plays enough 646 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,120 Speaker 1: to hit that mark, we'll see. But fifty two one 647 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,560 Speaker 1: is outrageous value on a guy who should be a 648 00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 1: top fifteen hume run performer. Kyle Schwarber, Indiana Hoosier. That's right, 649 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,280 Speaker 1: you got that double that double Shouber connection. Chad favorite 650 00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:49,760 Speaker 1: college and uh, you know your favorite baseball team. So 651 00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 1: I covered the Indiana Whosiers baseball team for the Indiana 652 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 1: Daily Student back in the day. At any future major 653 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:00,760 Speaker 1: leaguers on that team at the time. The only guy 654 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:05,160 Speaker 1: who gotta look I remember it very clearly. His name 655 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 1: was Phil Dauphin d A U P H I N. 656 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:15,640 Speaker 1: And I believe he became a Phillies prospect. If I'm 657 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: not mistaken, I'm googling it right now. Um, he was 658 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:24,640 Speaker 1: drafted by the Cubs. Okay, drafted by the Cubs in 659 00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 1: the eleventh round. Uh, never never made it to the 660 00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:32,480 Speaker 1: big leagues, bounced around for a long time, a long 661 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 1: time in the in the minors, um and never blames 662 00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 1: you for never making it. A lot of people blame 663 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 1: me for a lot of things that don't happen in 664 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 1: their life. I'm used to it. You guys can't do that, though, Colin, 665 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:50,360 Speaker 1: what's your long shot? It's only a kind it's only 666 00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:53,640 Speaker 1: a semi long shot compared to what's the religious gave out, 667 00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: which I do love a lot. It's it's one of 668 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 1: those stats that's that's completely unpredictable and not at all 669 00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 1: tell of a player's skill level. And it's most RB 670 00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:07,000 Speaker 1: I and it's Freddie Freeman at to one. Freddie Freeman 671 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 1: is consistently one of the you know, one of the 672 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:11,200 Speaker 1: best hitters and all of baseball. He's also now going 673 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,360 Speaker 1: to be playing in the best offense in baseball. He 674 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,200 Speaker 1: didn't come from a bad offense. Obviously, his team just 675 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:18,600 Speaker 1: won the World Series. But now I's going to be 676 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 1: hitting behind Mookie Betts and Trade Turner every single day. 677 00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 1: And he actually had some bad RB Dialock last year. 678 00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,720 Speaker 1: I think he finished in the eighties. He he topped 679 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:30,720 Speaker 1: out in the one Thames a couple of years ago. 680 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,080 Speaker 1: But if you look at his r E twenty four, 681 00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,880 Speaker 1: which is, you know, the best predictive statu of of 682 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:40,800 Speaker 1: just consistent hit and run production, he's always in the 683 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 1: top ten there. And he's being priced down in the 684 00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:49,120 Speaker 1: range of guys like Nolan Arronado and Giancarlos Stanton with 685 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,160 Speaker 1: his injury issues and Kyle Tucker who were less proven. 686 00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:53,920 Speaker 1: And I think that there's just a lot of value 687 00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 1: and a guy who he knows is going to be 688 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,920 Speaker 1: out there for a hundred and fifty plus games hitting 689 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,240 Speaker 1: in the heart of the order for the best fence 690 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,600 Speaker 1: in baseball at to one, I just don't really see 691 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:04,680 Speaker 1: why he's priced that low. I think he should be 692 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,960 Speaker 1: up there in the range of the of the Vlad 693 00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:08,920 Speaker 1: He's at plus eight hundred, of the wand Sotos at 694 00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:12,279 Speaker 1: plus one thousand, even Pete Alonzo at fourteen to one. 695 00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:14,359 Speaker 1: Uh Freeman should be in that range. He's not getting 696 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,759 Speaker 1: any respect in that market. I tried to te you 697 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,279 Speaker 1: up for some say a Suzuki talk, and you didn't 698 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,920 Speaker 1: take debit. Oh we're we If we're talking award futures, 699 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:29,439 Speaker 1: I'll go all over Suzuki, but it's players specific. Man, 700 00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:31,719 Speaker 1: whatever you wanted to be, say, a Suzuki is not 701 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:33,880 Speaker 1: a long shot by any means, And this is actually 702 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:37,440 Speaker 1: a rare instance where I'm I'm siding with with one 703 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,640 Speaker 1: of the favorites. If you look at baseball perspectus is 704 00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 1: Pakoda projections for the season and Suzuki's fiftie percentile outcomes. 705 00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,680 Speaker 1: So if everything just breaks in an average fashion for Suzuki, 706 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 1: we're still looking at a player who's gonna be worth 707 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:54,439 Speaker 1: three point seven war hit, twenty four home runs, and 708 00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:58,400 Speaker 1: his strikeout to walk numbers in Japan were insane and 709 00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:02,160 Speaker 1: they project to translate well in the United States seventy 710 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,319 Speaker 1: one walks against eighty seven strikeouts. He's going to play 711 00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,399 Speaker 1: every day. He's already in his late twenties, and if 712 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,480 Speaker 1: you can find him in the plus four hundred plus 713 00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,280 Speaker 1: five hundred range, I think that helps pending. He should 714 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 1: be the runaway favorite for n L Rookie of the Year, 715 00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,880 Speaker 1: where right now he's tracking in the second, third, fourth range. 716 00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,360 Speaker 1: You see me with my Osaka Tigers hat on, I 717 00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,480 Speaker 1: love I love me some Japanese baseball. He tore it 718 00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:27,879 Speaker 1: up for the Horosia mccarte over the last couple of years, 719 00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:29,440 Speaker 1: and he's gonna bring it right back over here to 720 00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,239 Speaker 1: America and it's gonna be very exciting, even especially at 721 00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,279 Speaker 1: Wrigley Field, where we're gonna see those balls fly out 722 00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,360 Speaker 1: of the park. The bleacher bums are gonna love this guy. 723 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,440 Speaker 1: I'm all over him for an EL Rookie of the Year. 724 00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,920 Speaker 1: It's a good defender too. I was just waiting for 725 00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:45,320 Speaker 1: Shawn to give me a long shot again so I 726 00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,000 Speaker 1: can just load up. And I've already made this bets. 727 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:48,920 Speaker 1: I mean as soon as he said Phillies player, I 728 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:50,759 Speaker 1: just started betting all the Phillies guys before he was 729 00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,720 Speaker 1: said Kyle's name. So if we had any sort of bullpen, 730 00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 1: I'd be all over the Phillies futures. But it's just 731 00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 1: a negative Phillies fan, I am. I just they spend 732 00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,880 Speaker 1: money on the bats. I love Nick, I love Sharber, 733 00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,120 Speaker 1: but I look at that team. I just I cannot 734 00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:04,640 Speaker 1: bet their future. But if I had four to the one, 735 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,600 Speaker 1: I would bet the Phillies. But I'm just not doing it. 736 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,239 Speaker 1: I like you do a little bit, Simon. They're they're 737 00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,600 Speaker 1: sitting around five to one. I think that's pretty solid. 738 00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:14,120 Speaker 1: You know, they're They're the kind of team to me 739 00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,520 Speaker 1: like the Angels, pretty similar who They're probably either going 740 00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:19,919 Speaker 1: to be very competitive for the division or go under 741 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,720 Speaker 1: their winter total. I disagree with the roller on the Phillies, 742 00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:24,279 Speaker 1: which means that I know that I'm going to be 743 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:28,120 Speaker 1: wrong on the Phillies just because it's it's their defense 744 00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:29,920 Speaker 1: that concerns me. That's one of the things that's hardest 745 00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,360 Speaker 1: to quantify into a wind total. But with Shoarburn Castie 746 00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:34,520 Speaker 1: Islands out there, I think they're gonna be among the 747 00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:37,440 Speaker 1: worst defensive teams in baseball. And also I I just 748 00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:39,719 Speaker 1: don't know what they're gonna have him pitching behind Zach 749 00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,360 Speaker 1: Wheeler and Aaron Nola. They didn't do a lot to 750 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,279 Speaker 1: improve their bullpen. You know, Corey Knabele and all of 751 00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,920 Speaker 1: his injury issues. He's not going to solve everything that 752 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 1: was an issue with their with their bullpen last year. 753 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,799 Speaker 1: So I actually leaned towards the under on that wind total. 754 00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,200 Speaker 1: Going against the Rillo makes me nervous, but I just 755 00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:57,759 Speaker 1: don't see it in Philly this year. I think their 756 00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:02,360 Speaker 1: playoff droughts going to extend. We're gonna look at another season. Listen, 757 00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,400 Speaker 1: here's the beauty. We're gonna get to find out who's 758 00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:12,360 Speaker 1: right and who's wrong all season long on our favorite 759 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:17,560 Speaker 1: new podcast, Payoff Pitch by the Way early next week, 760 00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:25,000 Speaker 1: six new episodes covering every betting angle across all six 761 00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:30,600 Speaker 1: Major League Baseball divisions. Go check out our episode description 762 00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:34,040 Speaker 1: where you'll find links to pay Off Pitch. Let's all 763 00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:39,000 Speaker 1: go subscribe. There is no doubt everyone could use more 764 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,439 Speaker 1: Shawn Zarrillo and Colin Whitchurch in their life A couple 765 00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:45,120 Speaker 1: of times a week throughout the summer. This is what 766 00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,400 Speaker 1: the world needs right now. It's how we're going to 767 00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,160 Speaker 1: find peace and happiness. If the Oscars can't provide it, 768 00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:56,239 Speaker 1: the Action Network can. For producer Extraordinaire Matt Mitchell. For 769 00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,840 Speaker 1: my co host Simon Hunter, I am Chad Millman. This 770 00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:03,839 Speaker 1: has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. Download 771 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:08,120 Speaker 1: from Apple, podcasts from Spotify wherever you get your podcasts, 772 00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,759 Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe and me five stars say whatever you want. 773 00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:17,880 Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I love Yah 774 00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:19,959 Speaker 1: Yah