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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Gloomberg eleventh Rio to Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bluemberg twelve Honors, to San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: Bluemberg to the Country Series Exam Channel one nine and

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Speaker 1: around the globe the Bluemberg Radio plus David Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning. I'm Michael McKee along

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Speaker 1: with Tom Keane, live from London this week as we

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Speaker 1: bring surveillance on the road to cover the debate over

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Speaker 1: whether the United Kingdom should leave the European Union. There

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Speaker 1: are some headlines beyond that in the corporate world that

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Speaker 1: people are following today, including a report that Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 1: considering selling part of Russia's corporate Crown Jewels to China

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Speaker 1: and India. He's seeking a buyer for about of the

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Speaker 1: oil company Rosneff, and now indicating for the first time

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Speaker 1: he might prefer a joint deal with those nations to

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Speaker 1: drive growth in inner geet demand. Carl Icahn in the

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Speaker 1: news again this morning. He's a man looking to buy

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Speaker 1: more of Federal Mogul, boosting his offer to eight dollars

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Speaker 1: a share from seven dollars a share. No word on

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Speaker 1: how that is going to go over. And if you're

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Speaker 1: a golfer, A Kushnet is filing for its initial public

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Speaker 1: offering the golf product company that owns the Titleist and

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Speaker 1: Pinnacle brands. The company is going to file under the

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Speaker 1: ticker symbol golf. UH could touch a valuation of about

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Speaker 1: two billion dollars, according to people familiar with the matter.

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Speaker 1: Now it's time to check in with Michael Barr and

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Speaker 1: get the latest world and national headlines. Michael, thank thank

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Speaker 1: you very much. A judge in Connecticut will hear arguments

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Speaker 1: today on whether to toss out a lawsuit against the

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Speaker 1: maker of the semi automatic rifle used to kill twenty

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Speaker 1: children and six adults in the twelve Sandy Hook Elementary

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Speaker 1: School massacre. Several families of those killed at the new

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Speaker 1: Town school and a survivor are suing Remington Arms. They

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Speaker 1: say the company knew it's a R fifteen style of

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Speaker 1: rifle was too dangerous to sell to civilians. The Southwest

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Speaker 1: is under a heat wave. Triple digit temperatures are so

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Speaker 1: extreme a flight from Houston to Phoenix had to turnaround

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Speaker 1: because the runway was too hot to land and the

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Speaker 1: tires might explode in a hundred eighteen degree heat. Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump will old a meeting in New York today with

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Speaker 1: his top advisors to reassess his campaign strategy. Trump's staff

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Speaker 1: members are telling Bloomberg, the resumptive Republican presidential nominee is

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Speaker 1: facing pressure from within his own inner circle about the

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Speaker 1: lack of coordination and communication. Global News twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: a day, Power to Buy Hours, twenty four hundred journalists

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Speaker 1: and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus around the world.

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Speaker 1: I am Michael Barr, Mike. Thank you, Michael. Time now

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Speaker 1: for the land over Precipitate Bloomberg. NBC Sports Update. Here's

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Speaker 1: John Stash, Thanks Mike. Last time the title was won

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Speaker 1: by a team from Cleveland, the fans likely watched on

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Speaker 1: a black in a white TV. It was nineteen sixty

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Speaker 1: four and the Browns won the NFL Championship. Now Lebron

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Speaker 1: James in Game seven, scoring twenty seven points a triple double,

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Speaker 1: helped from Kyrie Irvy, who had twenty six and to

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Speaker 1: go ahead three point shot with fifty three seconds left,

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Speaker 1: and the Cavaliers won Game seven at Golden State nine

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Speaker 1: to eighty nine to become the eleventh team to ever

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Speaker 1: come back from a three one series deficit two weeks

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Speaker 1: after the Warriors were the tenth to do it, but

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Speaker 1: this is the first time it ever happened in the

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Speaker 1: NBA finals. Third championship for Lebron, he of course won

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Speaker 1: two in Miami, then returned home and now has made

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Speaker 1: good on that promise to deliberate title de nine, a

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Speaker 1: second straight title for Steph Curry and the Warriors, who

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Speaker 1: won a total of eighty eight games this season, came

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Speaker 1: up one short. Dustin Johnson no longer with the Moniker

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Speaker 1: best golfer never win a major. Last year's US Open

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Speaker 1: runner up wanted an oak Mont by three shots. Rock

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Speaker 1: Bottom fielding for the Mets, swept at home by the

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Speaker 1: lowly Braves, losing six nothing, and the Yankees beaten by

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Speaker 1: the Twins seven to four. Bloomberg NBC Sports Update. I'm

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Speaker 1: John Stash, Thank you, John. Well. We're looking at a

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Speaker 1: British pound that is costing our company more money, said

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Speaker 1: Tom and I over here one thirty this morning. It's

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Speaker 1: up two percent on the day. The footsie is training

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Speaker 1: higher by one hundred and ninety five points right now,

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Speaker 1: three point two percent. This is Bloomberg Surveillance live from

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Speaker 1: London this week, Michael McKee, along with Tom King, keeping

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Speaker 1: on top of all of the developments in the Brexit debate.

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Speaker 1: The move ahead by the Remain campaign in the polls

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Speaker 1: over the weekend has markets rallying around the world, not

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Speaker 1: just here. SMP futures up by twenty eight points one

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Speaker 1: point four percent. Now, Dow futures are up by two

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Speaker 1: hundred and eighteen. It's a one point two percent game.

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Speaker 1: The stock six hundred across here up twelve points higher

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Speaker 1: three point six percent. Time now for the Bloomberg n

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Speaker 1: j I T STAM Report, brought to you by New

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Speaker 1: Jersey Institute of Technology, investing more than a hundred and

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Speaker 1: ten million dollars a year and applied research to solve

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Speaker 1: problems and to improve life. Learn more at Stories of

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Speaker 1: Innovation dot j I T dot E d U. A

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Speaker 1: billionaire Jeff Bezos space exploration company launched and landed an

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Speaker 1: unmanned rockets Sunday while testing a parachute failure. It's a

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Speaker 1: key step in checking the safety of its new Shepherd

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Speaker 1: vehicle before sending it to space with astronauts aboard. The

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Speaker 1: mission was the fourth time the same Blue Origin rocket

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Speaker 1: flew to suborbital space and returned to Earth intact, the

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Speaker 1: first incorporating a planned failure of landing equipment for its

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Speaker 1: capsule to test redundancy is meant to protect the vehicle

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Speaker 1: and passengers. The capsule, which would carry astronauts on a

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Speaker 1: manned mission, landed successfully in West Texas on Sunday morning,

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Speaker 1: after two instead of a typical three parachutes deployed. The

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Speaker 1: rocket itself uses wings and refires its engine to slow

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Speaker 1: its descent. It landed successfully before the capsule about seven

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Speaker 1: minutes after takeoff. Speaking of the space race, the latest

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Speaker 1: entrant has a wingspan longer than the distance traveled by

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Speaker 1: the White Wright brothers at their earliest flights. Paul Allen,

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Speaker 1: the billionaire co founder of Microsoft and owner of the

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Speaker 1: Seattle c Hawks, is building a twin fuselage behemoth airplane

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Speaker 1: as wide as a football field, called Strato Launch. The

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Speaker 1: plane would be bigger than Howard hughes famed Spruce Goose,

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Speaker 1: which flew once it's beyond Earth ambitions carry a rocket

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Speaker 1: tethered to its belly uh to an altitude of about

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Speaker 1: thirty five thousand feet, then, once aloft, the rocket drops

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Speaker 1: fires its engines and air launches into Bormit and that

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Speaker 1: is the Bloomberg Step report. Well, it wouldn't be a

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Speaker 1: political debate if we did not hear from Ian Bremer

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Speaker 1: from the Eurasia Group. And Ian has made a stop

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Speaker 1: on his way to the Brexit vote in Italy where

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Speaker 1: they had an election this weekend that did not go

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Speaker 1: the way of the perhaps the ruling coalition would have preferred. Uh. Ian.

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Speaker 1: We saw a not an upset in Rome, but the

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Speaker 1: size of the vote for Virginia Aggy has to be

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Speaker 1: a disappointed to Prime Minister Mateo Renzy. She's from the

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Speaker 1: five Star movement that began almost as a joke and

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Speaker 1: now seems to have gained some significant strength. Yeah, big

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Speaker 1: loss for for the Prime Minister Rensey um in Rome

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Speaker 1: the most significant political setback that so the charismatic prime

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Speaker 1: minister will have seen since he came in. And you

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Speaker 1: know it's it's going to be interesting. I mean he's

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Speaker 1: relentlessly optimistic and positive and you know he's just doubling

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Speaker 1: down in response on on the needs of reform, the

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Speaker 1: needs for more leadership. You've got this massive referendum that

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Speaker 1: he staked his entire UH you know, a leadership on

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Speaker 1: coming up in the fall on on basically a change

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Speaker 1: of constitution, political reform with the in the Senate, which

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Speaker 1: if it passes, would be enormous in Italy, probably the

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Speaker 1: biggest reform we've seen in any European government. Did well

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Speaker 1: over a decade actually creating unified governments in Italy. But

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Speaker 1: this is a big hit we quote lose and if

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Speaker 1: he does, he's basically done for. So you know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: as you're seeing across Europe the populace are gaining, I

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Speaker 1: would still say that Renzy is it would be predicted

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Speaker 1: to win on this and still is by far one

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Speaker 1: of the most popular leaders across Europe for any any

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Speaker 1: head of government. Um. But but this weekend was not

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Speaker 1: good news to that thought. Well, I wanted to go there.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you what, if anything it tells us,

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Speaker 1: not necessarily specifically about the mood of the UK voters,

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Speaker 1: but about voters in general in Europe. Uh. There's discontent, yes,

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Speaker 1: but discontent in favor of what Well, I mean this

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Speaker 1: anti establishment sentiment which has two different components of it.

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Speaker 1: One is the following out of the middle class across

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Speaker 1: Europe as well as in the United States, people that

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Speaker 1: feel like the establishment, supporting the trade, globalization, the EU,

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Speaker 1: stronger integration of the EU has done nothing for them.

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Speaker 1: So voting for anti establishment and populist causes may seem

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Speaker 1: to be something that is risky. But if you think that,

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Speaker 1: you know your your leaders are are are going to

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Speaker 1: provide nothing for you, and the social contract UM that

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Speaker 1: has been established between governed and governor UM is no

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Speaker 1: longer in place, you're more willing to go that direction.

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Speaker 1: So we're seeing that. We also seeing the reaction from

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Speaker 1: the refugee crisis, which of course is playing a big

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Speaker 1: role here in Italy, is something everyone's worried about. UM

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Speaker 1: with the especially with the concerns around Libya and throughout

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Speaker 1: North Africa. UM that the Italian government has has a

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Speaker 1: hard time both keeping them out as well as integrating

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Speaker 1: them when they come over UM, and you know, the

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Speaker 1: populist parties in this case, the Five Star movement speaks

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Speaker 1: aggressively to both of those things. Also that a Grillo,

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Speaker 1: the former comedian who had actually been charged for murder

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Speaker 1: when he was younger, is no longer as important as

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Speaker 1: the as the front of the movement, and so what

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Speaker 1: you see is a number of uster known but locally

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Speaker 1: popular figures that are becoming more significant. Having a better shot,

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Speaker 1: let's come back with Ian Remer from the Eurasian Group.

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Speaker 1: He has in Venice today after the vote in Italy

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Speaker 1: over the weekend. We'll talk more about his views on

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Speaker 1: Brexit and where the UK goes from here. Coming up

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Speaker 1: in just a moment. As we mentioned, UH defeats for

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Speaker 1: the ruling party in Italy over the weekend, the mayor

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Speaker 1: of Rome and the mayor mayoralty in Turin going to

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Speaker 1: the five star movement has an upset markets around Italy.

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Speaker 1: The Footsie MiB right now is up by two and

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Speaker 1: a half percent, that's four d and twenty six points

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Speaker 1: on that index, and the Euro is stronger today by

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Speaker 1: half a percent one point one three three one. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Surveillance. Tom Keen and I are live in

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Speaker 1: London all week you're listening to Bloomberg Radio worldwide. Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: New York City Realty Investments. See them at n r

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Speaker 1: I a dot net. Gloombo Business News twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: a day at Bloomberg dot Com, the Radio plus Mobile

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Speaker 1: Act and on your radio, this is a Bloomberg business

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Speaker 1: flash and I'm comer in Moscow. This updates brought to

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Speaker 1: you by Stages Summit, the world's largest gathering of small

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Speaker 1: and medium businesses, featuring Sir Richard Branson July in Chicago.

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Speaker 1: Registered with Promo Code business at Stage Summit dot Com

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Speaker 1: for just ninety nine dollars. Federal Mogul Holdings largest shareholder,

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Speaker 1: activist investor Carl Icon racing his offer to buy the

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Speaker 1: remaining eight percent stake of the auto parts maker Icon

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Speaker 1: Enterprises race its bid to eight dollars a share from

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Speaker 1: the seven dollar a share offered in February. Global equities rallying,

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Speaker 1: the pound strengthening the most two thousand eight on signs.

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Speaker 1: The campaign for the UK to stay in the EU

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Speaker 1: is gaining momentum began declining with the U S treasuries

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Speaker 1: and gold as haven demand eases. We checked the markets

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Speaker 1: every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg SNP

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Speaker 1: EVENI futures up twenty eight points and now eveny futures

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Speaker 1: up two hundred eighteen. Now's documenty futures up fifty nine.

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Speaker 1: The decks in Germany's up three and a half percent,

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Speaker 1: so is the cat in Paris, and the FT one

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Speaker 1: hundred is up three point three percent. Tenure Treasury down

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Speaker 1: seventeen thirty seconds, the yield one point six six percent

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Speaker 1: yield on the two year point seven two percent. Nimax

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Speaker 1: screwed oil up one point eight percent, or eighty eight

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Speaker 1: cents to forty eight eighties six of barrel comas. Gold

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Speaker 1: is down nine tenths per cent or eleven dollars twenty

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Speaker 1: cents at twelve eighty three sixty an ounce. The British

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Speaker 1: found a dollar forty six forty seven, the euro of

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Speaker 1: dollar thirteen thirty five, the yen one oh four point

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Speaker 1: five three. That's a bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Karen,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much. Good morning everyone, Michael McKee and

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Speaker 1: Tom Keane. We had to go on separate airplanes to

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Speaker 1: come here, too long to strict separate planes. McKee took

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Speaker 1: the Gulf Stream and I had to slum back in

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Speaker 1: the cheap seats. But thank you to British Airway for

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Speaker 1: really seriously a terrific flight over by the entire team

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Speaker 1: at British air where does Ian Bremer, who always flies

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Speaker 1: first class. He's with Eurasia Group. Ian. I was walking

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Speaker 1: um with a sainted one down St James Street, pointed

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Speaker 1: out the Economist skyscraper, the towering building of the Economist

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Speaker 1: on St. James Street. You didn't interview with them a

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Speaker 1: while back, a couple of months ago. And I am

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Speaker 1: absolutely fascinated by what you think Brussels in Europe needs

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Speaker 1: to do. Whichever way this vote comes out. What is

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Speaker 1: the to do list for Brussels next Friday, this coming Friday.

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Speaker 1: Rather but they vote out, Brussels, along with all the

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Speaker 1: European capitals, are going to have to do as much

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Speaker 1: as possible to show everyone else in the EU that

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Speaker 1: the is not a viable path. So they have to

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Speaker 1: create maximum uncertainty, a little bit of panic, and they

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Speaker 1: have to show that you know that it's going to

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Speaker 1: be economically very costly, that there's a there's no good

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Speaker 1: deal coming to the Brits anytime soon. Because most of

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Speaker 1: the European you know, sort of core nations when you

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Speaker 1: ask them, are in favor of at least having a

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Speaker 1: referenda themselves, and and a lot of them would like

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Speaker 1: to vote out if they got that reference, the euroskepticism

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Speaker 1: has grown immensely across the continent. So it's a very

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Speaker 1: very tough to do. List. If that's the case, If

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Speaker 1: they vote remain and I think remains the way we're going,

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Speaker 1: as do the markets. As you know at this point, UM,

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Speaker 1: then you really want to get as quickly as possible, UM,

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Speaker 1: that deal that was arranged negotiated by Cameron, it said

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Speaker 1: back in February with the EU. You want that to sign, dusted, implemented, UM.

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Speaker 1: And you want the Brits to be seen as true

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Speaker 1: leaders UM in a revived European Union before another crisis,

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Speaker 1: because either a waiting ann way is there is there

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Speaker 1: any indication of the ladder of just Brussels saying we'll

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Speaker 1: do something here. We're gonna throw your bone Brittain. I

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Speaker 1: think if they vote in the bones, the bones have

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Speaker 1: already been given. I mean, you know the fact is

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Speaker 1: that Cameron a lot of it had to do with

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Speaker 1: you know, sort of smoke and mirrors in terms of saying, well,

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Speaker 1: you know is that I we have our sovereignty still

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Speaker 1: and so there were you know, there were actually those

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Speaker 1: sentences that were drafted, legal sentences drafted that you know,

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Speaker 1: sort of made it seem as if the Brits got more.

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Speaker 1: There will certainly be negotiations around how the Brits take

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Speaker 1: refugees and what kind of benefits they need to give

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Speaker 1: to them when they come into the UK. Again, that

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Speaker 1: was part of what the Brits negotia. There's no new

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Speaker 1: negotiations here. The issue of the Brits stay in UM

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Speaker 1: then I I you do have Cameron who is going

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Speaker 1: to still be the Prime Minister despite the fact that

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Speaker 1: he has a majority of conservative Euroskeptic in his constituency UM,

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Speaker 1: and he's going to be pushing forward for a stronger role,

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Speaker 1: a stronger British role in the EU. UM. The problem

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Speaker 1: is it's multi track UM and if your Brussels you

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Speaker 1: want to you don't you want to avoid opening up

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Speaker 1: a bunch of new negotiations with you know, with the

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Speaker 1: Danes for example, with the Dutch, with a bunch of

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Speaker 1: other countries that my otherwise wants them. Well. Following question

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Speaker 1: to that is how much influence does David Cameron have

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Speaker 1: if they remain in There are some suggestions, of course,

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Speaker 1: you have to separate out the politics of the newspapers

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Speaker 1: here in London. Has always, but some suggestions that Cameron

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Speaker 1: ends up with a strengthened hand in helping shape the

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Speaker 1: EU going forward. I think he does, and I don't

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Speaker 1: think it matters if he wins smaller, he wins big.

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Speaker 1: As long as remain happens, there won't be another referendum

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Speaker 1: in Britain any time in the foreseeable future. Um, he

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Speaker 1: will be able to maintain control of his party. That

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Speaker 1: will clearly be a shake up of the cabinet. UM

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Speaker 1: in the near terment that occurs, he's going to have

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Speaker 1: a relatively slim governing majority in parliament. UM. But nonetheless,

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Speaker 1: I would say at least for the foreseeable future, they

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Speaker 1: have to have a new general elections. That's what's what's

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Speaker 1: been promised. But certainly for the next couple of years,

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Speaker 1: Cameron is it. And keep in mind Labor Party Jeremy Corbyn,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, very very weak in terms of opposition.

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Speaker 1: So I think Cameron comes out of this if he

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Speaker 1: wins even narrowly as one of yours strongest leaders, and

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Speaker 1: they'll have a mandate for a new deal with the EU. UM,

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Speaker 1: that's not a bad thing. Frankly. I mean, even if

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Speaker 1: the United States can get through our elections in November

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Speaker 1: and reasonable order you could start to see negotiations on

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Speaker 1: a big new trade deal with the Europeans. Um So,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think there's a lot to play for.

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Speaker 1: But keep in mind, even though we all think Remain

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Speaker 1: is gonna happen, it's still pretty tight. We're still three

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Speaker 1: days away, and if it hits, it's going to hit

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Speaker 1: pretty badly. Does this provide is anyone in the European

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Speaker 1: Union listening in the sense that the idea that Britain

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Speaker 1: could come so close to leaving that you have the

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Speaker 1: kind of reaction you're seeing in the Italian elections. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you're seeing the populism and the problems that are taking

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Speaker 1: place in France right now. Is there any understanding that

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Speaker 1: maybe the way they have governed things and run things

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Speaker 1: the past few years needs to change. Well, I mean

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Speaker 1: there's two things here. I mean, one of the reasons

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Speaker 1: why Breckat coming so close is precisely because the consequences

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Speaker 1: are not disastrous, right. I mean, the markets will say

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Speaker 1: the disasters, But for the average Britain, a wealthy country,

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Speaker 1: they're pretty comfortable. So they could they have the luxury

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Speaker 1: of being able to vote in or out in their

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Speaker 1: lives are still going to be the way their lives were.

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Speaker 1: If you look at Britain, Germany, France, Spain, even Italy,

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Speaker 1: there's really no possibiley of anti establishment populist parties actually

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Speaker 1: taking governance. It's not like Hungary, it's not like Greece.

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Speaker 1: On the other side, you know, the fact that this

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Speaker 1: this horrible political killing, terrorists killing of Joe Cox, the

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Speaker 1: member of Parliament, there's no question that three days off

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Speaker 1: from campaigning UM made the difference, and um the tone

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Speaker 1: that you now see across the political spectrum in the

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Speaker 1: UK is much less shrill, it's much more respectful, it's

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Speaker 1: much more decent. It's the kind of thing one would

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Speaker 1: hope you'd seen advanced industrial umocracy, exactly what you're not

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Speaker 1: seeing in the United States after Orlando. And I do

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Speaker 1: think that will have an impact on other European government,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think that you know, a desire for

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Speaker 1: some civility in the political space is a much welcome thing.

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Speaker 1: Tell me about the g zero United Kingdom. You coined

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Speaker 1: the phrase the concept of leaf of almost a zero

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Speaker 1: sum international relations. Can an island go by itself? Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's certainly that that's that's the direction they're heading, right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at this entire debate over

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Speaker 1: Brexit over the last several months in the UK, at

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Speaker 1: no point has people have people been talking about the

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Speaker 1: fact that the Europeans need them. At no point if

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Speaker 1: people talked about the fact that, oh, the United States

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Speaker 1: has committed to the special relationship, we might screw that up.

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Speaker 1: This is purely about what's useful to the Brits. It's tactical,

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Speaker 1: it's short term, so in that regard it's very gezy.

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Speaker 1: And there's another way too, which is if you look

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Speaker 1: at the demographics of this vote, you have the cosmopolitan

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Speaker 1: Londoners and the Welsh and Northern Ireland and Scotland all

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Speaker 1: in favor of union, while you have England majority England

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Speaker 1: saying we want out. In other words, it's really a

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Speaker 1: race to the bottom. It's decentralization, it's local and if

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Speaker 1: the STU vote out, of course, there's a significant likelihood

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Speaker 1: overcoming years that you would see a further unwind of

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Speaker 1: the United Kingdom itself. Excuse him, guest, Ian Bremer, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much coming to us from Venice today. Ian

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Speaker 1: Bremmer is with Eraiser group, Every nation for itself? When

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Speaker 1: is the losers in the G zero world? Is truly

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Speaker 1: classic and Mike the cover of it this morning with

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Speaker 1: the the G zero euro and the blue chairs around

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Speaker 1: and one of them toppled over. You wonder who that

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Speaker 1: toppled over chair will be depending on what we see here.

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Speaker 1: What do you think, Mike, what's your observation? Well, it's

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Speaker 1: beginning to look as if this may turn out to

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Speaker 1: be Bromaine as opposed to Brexit. But I liked the

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Speaker 1: comment this morning for Richard Breslow, who writes the Trader's

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Speaker 1: Notes for Bloomberg News, looking at the market reaction to

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Speaker 1: a slight shift in the polls, he notes, how many

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Speaker 1: times over the years have you heard this is the

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Speaker 1: most important election or number, or referendum or geopolitical event

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Speaker 1: of our top Okay, now name the exactly that it

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Speaker 1: takes me back? We build it up. People say what

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Speaker 1: do I think? And honestly, folks, I don't have an opinion,

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Speaker 1: and I feel removed from the debate. Being an American

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Speaker 1: Olivia Blanchard, I think that the wisest field, which is

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Speaker 1: that we need to be careful of our inner hysterias

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Speaker 1: and our overwrought analysis. We will try to not be overwrought.

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Speaker 1: Another hour from London, Bloomberg surveillance