1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:06,560 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. All the work, all 2 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 1: the talk, all the handicapping is done. 3 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 2: It's time for history. 4 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 3: They're all in line, We're ready for the starts. 5 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:23,440 Speaker 1: They're off in the Kentucky Derby. Well rank another two. 6 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 2: Legs more back to win wind on the turn beginning. 7 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 3: Come pick up drive near the back of the pack. 8 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: As the field turns for home, Hendy first door and 9 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: opening on the inside. It's trying first drive. 10 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 3: As they come to the final prolong kick. Feddling on 11 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 3: what drove on to the line. 12 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 2: That a possible result here. 13 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:43,200 Speaker 3: Welsh that Kentucky. 14 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 4: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by the FanDuel Sportsbook. 15 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 2: I'm your host, Brendan glas Sheen. 16 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 4: Welcome in to our Kentucky Derby preview, the one hundred 17 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 4: and forty ninth renewal of the Greatest two Minutes in 18 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 4: Sports It on Saturday, May sixth. So we've got Mike 19 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 4: Conti from Action Network joining us. He's one of our 20 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 4: contributors always at Actionnetwork dot com on the app, writes 21 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 4: up on horse racing, and Mike Samich from Racing Dudes 22 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 4: Racing Dudes dot Com find his content there. Also find 23 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 4: him over on the Socials does a great job covering 24 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:24,200 Speaker 4: horse racing. The Derby is this Saturday, gents. I've had 25 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 4: the pleasure of working with both of you previously. I 26 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 4: think we did the Belmont Steaks, go right down the list. 27 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 4: We've done plenty of horse racing content here at action 28 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 4: fun time of year. Spring is here, folks are starting 29 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:37,759 Speaker 4: to really feel it with the playoff stuff going on, 30 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 4: the Derby works its way in. 31 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,199 Speaker 2: So we're going to break down the Derby. 32 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 4: Assess how both of you bet the Derby, how you 33 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 4: particular approaches to betting. 34 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 2: I know there's a variety of ways you can do that. 35 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 4: We'll also dive into the oaks, how you pick those, 36 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 4: how you might find value, and then we'll look into 37 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:59,919 Speaker 4: Friday and Saturday undercard bets in the final few minutes, 38 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 4: Mike Conti will start with you. You take a look 39 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 4: at the card for the Derby, Kentucky Derby. What's coming 40 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 4: to mind from a betting standpoint? 41 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:12,119 Speaker 1: This is an interesting Derby. Excited to be here. First 42 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: of all, it's always a great time of year. Smack dab, 43 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: Like you said, right, we've got NBA playoffs, We've got 44 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 1: NHL playoffs. We just had the Draft. But the most 45 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 1: important thing this week is horses. We've got the Oaks 46 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 1: on Friday, the Derby Saturday. You know, this year, it's interesting. 47 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: We've got a favorite in Forte who very much is 48 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: a deserving favorite. And I'd be remiss to not say 49 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: that somebody, this guy over here had him in the 50 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: Breeders Cup going up against another Bafford horse in cave Rock. 51 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 3: That time. 52 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 1: I think Mike took the other Bafford and cave Rock 53 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: I went for t That being said, right, Fort's a 54 00:02:55,280 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 1: able morning line favorite, a slight morning line favorite. Listen, 55 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 1: he hasn't done anything wrong. He's been very professional. It's 56 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: just a matter of he's regressed in terms of his 57 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:12,239 Speaker 1: speed figures this year. Now. He looked dead to rights 58 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: in the Florida Derby. He needed every ounce of that 59 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 1: race to get by late. But again, can you knock 60 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 1: a horse who just continues to win? I don't know, right, 61 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 1: Do I love three to one and what I see 62 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: as a pretty wide open field? Probably not. Next In 63 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 1: terms of odds, you've got number five tap at Trice 64 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: at five to one. Then you've got Angel of Empire 65 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:38,279 Speaker 1: number fourteen at eight to one. You've got Derma Sotakake 66 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: at ten to one, and then you've got a practical 67 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: move excuse me also at ten to one in the 68 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: ten post, so you've got and then after that, right, 69 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 1: the odds continue to get longer and longer. We've got 70 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 1: a wide open Derby this year. I'm really excited. There's 71 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: a lot of conversations and I'm sure that Mike Samitch 72 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 1: is going to talk about this with the pace, but 73 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: there's a lot of conversation going on around what's the 74 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: pace setup going to be in this race? Where are 75 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: some of these horses going to be this I've heard 76 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 1: a lot of other people talk about it. This truly 77 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: is going to be a rider's race. I'm really excited 78 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: for this edition of the Derby. There's so many ways 79 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:20,480 Speaker 1: to bet this. We're going to get into it. But Mike, 80 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 1: I'll turn it over to you to hear some initial thoughts. 81 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 3: Yeah, first off, it's undercrs phenomenal Churchill. Downs is a 82 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 3: wonderful job of drawing very good fields. We're not going 83 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 3: to have too many wildly heavy favorites throughout the two 84 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 3: days on both Oaks Day and Derby Day. So undercard betting, 85 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 3: I think is a massive plus for you if you 86 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 3: are looking at playing these races on the derby specifically, 87 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 3: I think CONTI nailed it. This pace is one of 88 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 3: the murkiest we have seen in a very very long time. 89 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 3: If you go to four or five different pace projectors, 90 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 3: they will all tell you a different horse is going 91 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 3: to be in the league going into that first turn. 92 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 3: And the draw is fairly interesting as well. You have 93 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 3: a lot of the speed drawn toward the inside. So 94 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 3: the two horses supposed to go, hor is supposed to go, 95 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 3: the six horses supposed to go, the seven horses supposed 96 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 3: to go, you don't really have that much speed outside 97 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 3: Dermosotagat in the seventeen posts is the possible exception to 98 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 3: that for a horse that could go, and one that 99 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 3: I've seen projected to be your early pace. The other 100 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 3: interesting part of that is I didn't mention any of 101 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 3: the favorites. As Mike said, your favorite Forte comes from 102 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 3: off the pace tap a trice, Your second choice has 103 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 3: a breaking problem and comes from off the pace. Your 104 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 3: third choice in Heal Angel Empire projected to be one 105 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,119 Speaker 3: of the last horses the first time under the wire. 106 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 3: In a lot of different places. So you've got a 107 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 3: situation where the pace isn't very clear, and you've got 108 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 3: the three favorites all probably coming from off it, and 109 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 3: eight of the last ten Derbies have been run by 110 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 3: a horse that is forwardly placed, and I'm gonna even 111 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 3: say nine of the last ten. We can just throw 112 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:48,359 Speaker 3: out the rich strike here last year because that was 113 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 3: the fastest opening half mile in Derby history. We're not 114 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 3: seeing that again, so it really creates an interesting conundrum 115 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,239 Speaker 3: for the handicapper for what do you do with this pace? 116 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 3: Do you think anyone can hang on? Because most of 117 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 3: those pace horses I think also have a distance issue, 118 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 3: So that kind of creates another complexity level here of 119 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 3: how you end up picking a horse in this spot. 120 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 3: Mike was right as well. Look, Forte hasn't done anything 121 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 3: wrong and the Florida Derby numbers have definitely definitely was 122 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 3: a regression when you look at a buyer perspective, but 123 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 3: when you go back and you analyze the race. He 124 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 3: was four white on the first turn, didn't get a 125 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 3: chance to run until about the eighth pole down, the 126 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 3: lane was three wide around the second turn. The ground 127 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 3: that he covered made that a better time form number 128 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 3: than it did a buyer speech number, so the time 129 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:34,359 Speaker 3: form number, you didn't see that same regression on the 130 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 3: forte side, and what was a really oddly run race. 131 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 3: When you go back and watch that Florida Derby. 132 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 4: Six wins and seven starts for Forte the favorite five 133 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 4: wins in a row, four grade one wins. Reading from 134 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 4: our friend Evan Abrams, director of Research and Media at 135 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 4: Action Network, does a great job. You can find his 136 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 4: write up on the Derby at actionnetwork dot com. In 137 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 4: the app, he also notes his favorites at the Derby. 138 00:06:57,360 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 4: They've won fifty six of the one forty eight. That's 139 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 4: about to thirty eight percent clip in its history, six 140 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 4: straight favorites one from thirteen to eighteen. Justify I was 141 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 4: the last favorite to win in twenty eighteen. So of 142 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 4: the other contenders, we'll go to Samich first on this 143 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 4: of the contenders, then we'll go to CONTI. 144 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:17,679 Speaker 2: Of course, when you're. 145 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 4: Looking at the top of the board in terms of 146 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 4: favorites and win contenders, how do you plan on betting 147 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 4: this year's Derby? 148 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 3: Well, it's an interesting rendition for it. Look, I respect 149 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 3: the heck out of Forte, so I'm not going to 150 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 3: leave Forte off my multi race bets. I don't think 151 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 3: he's a complete chuck from that perspective, especially when you're 152 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 3: playing pick fours and pick fives. He's a horse that 153 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 3: I think you have to include. I'm going to be 154 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 3: very hesitant to bet him to win at three to one. 155 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 3: If he floats up and you're seeing seven to two, 156 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 3: four to one, I become a little bit more interested 157 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 3: in betting forourte to win. And it's interesting because there's 158 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 3: a lot of hate right now for Forte, for a 159 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 3: horse that hasn't lost this year. It's your two year 160 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 3: old champion. A lot of people trying to put poke 161 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 3: holes in him, and there's just not that much you 162 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 3: can poke holes in if you look at that second part. 163 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 3: And this is where I'm going to start ering away 164 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 3: from I think of where a lot of the popular 165 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,679 Speaker 3: opinion is to me TapIt. Trice in the five posts 166 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 3: is a complete chuck. So I'm not going to use 167 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 3: him in my multi race bets. I'm not going to 168 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 3: bet him to win. I mentioned during the last little 169 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 3: dietrab I had that he doesn't break. He is literally 170 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 3: o for breaking in his life. If you go back 171 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 3: and watch all of his races. He always starts a 172 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 3: step slow, and that five post is essentially the one 173 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 3: in my mind because the one, two, three, and four 174 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 3: all have significantly more early pace for him. That means 175 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 3: I think TapIt Trice could be twentieth going under the 176 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 3: wire the first time in the Kentucky Derby, and that 177 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 3: is a recipe for disaster Forum. So for me, I'm 178 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 3: going to try and to avoid him. Angel of Empire 179 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 3: I'm a lot more interested in simply because his last 180 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 3: two races he won in two varying styles, was able 181 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 3: to win with a complete pace collapse, and then in 182 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:48,440 Speaker 3: the Arkansas Derby, everybody got a good trip, the pace 183 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 3: wasn't that fast. No horse was really deterred from what 184 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 3: they wanted to do. An Angel Vampire absolutely destroyed him. 185 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 3: I ended up winning by four lanks, probably could have 186 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 3: won by more had he wanted to. Has been improving nicely, 187 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 3: so I think Angel of Empire is one of those 188 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 3: horses where if somehow he can show a little bit 189 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 3: more speed, he is definitely a horse that would I 190 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 3: would use in the multi race tickets. 191 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:13,359 Speaker 1: And in contention, yeah, I mean there's some that I 192 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: totally agree with tossing tap at Trice. Nothing wrong with Forte. 193 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: Also happened to really like Angel of Empire, who I 194 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,439 Speaker 1: think can make a big middle move right, So depending 195 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 1: upon where he is agreed, that's another big piece of it. 196 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 1: The other two horses that you didn't mention that I 197 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 1: am very interested in that are at different odds. You've 198 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 1: got Dermoso Takake. We've talked about this horse, right, the 199 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: Japanese horse. There's been a lot to do with Japanese 200 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 1: horses and international racing over the last year, and people 201 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: saying that, you know, they're ready to pop in terms 202 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 1: of taking over the sport in some ways due to 203 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 1: breeding and training and some different techniques that they use. 204 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: This horse is really interesting to me. I thought that 205 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: that UAE Derby win was a really nice win. And 206 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:02,679 Speaker 1: to your point, right before Mike forwardly placed, Brendan just 207 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 1: shared about, you know, some forwardly placed horses and where 208 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 1: horses are at first call. He's definitely going to be 209 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: more forwardly placed. So at ten to one very interesting 210 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 1: to me. The other one is practical move, and I'll 211 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 1: be honest, Originally I didn't think I liked practical move, 212 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 1: and then I went back and I watched that Santa 213 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: Anita Derby, and I actually watched it from three different angles. 214 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:25,440 Speaker 1: I watched it from the normal angle, I watched it 215 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: from the head on. And then they had drone footage 216 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 1: on that Santa Anita Derby thanks to FanDuel TV, And 217 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,599 Speaker 1: that drone footage is actually what made me like practical 218 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: move in the derby and a horse that I am 219 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:41,839 Speaker 1: definitely including in all of my debts because people were 220 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: making a big you know, much to do about Skinner 221 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 1: and about Mandarin Hero, who seemed to be getting to 222 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: and gaining on practical move in that Santa Anita Derby, 223 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 1: but if you watch the gallop out, neither of them 224 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 1: ever went by or had had practical move. Dead to 225 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 1: Rightsmandarin Hero, yeah, he was stuck down on the inside 226 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: for a long time, even after he got out, which 227 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 1: he did not in enough time to go by, you know, 228 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: by the wire, But you would have assumed that he 229 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 1: would have been able to go by after the wire 230 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: and the gallop out, and they weren't able to. So again, 231 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: another horse that I think has tactical speed that's gonna 232 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 1: be more forwardly placed in again a fairly paceless race 233 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: or a weird pace setup that no one really knows 234 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: exactly what's going to happen. So another horse at a 235 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 1: decent price at ten to one that I'm definitely going 236 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: to include as well. The only other horse that I 237 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 1: would say that you know is interesting to me. I 238 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 1: don't know as though that I'm going to use the 239 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: horse from a win perspective or even you know, in 240 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: my multi race wagers. I haven't quite figured him out, 241 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: but two Phills just never runs a bad race. I 242 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 1: don't know if the horse is good enough to win 243 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 1: this race. I don't think so. But you want to 244 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 1: talk about a horse and we'll get there later to 245 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 1: use underneath an exotics vertical wagers in the Derby. Two 246 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: Fills might be a horse that I key in certain 247 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 1: spots because I think the horse is going to be 248 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 1: there late. So again, it's a really exciting rendition of 249 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: the Derby. We don't have some overwhelming favorite. Again, I 250 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,079 Speaker 1: agree with Mike Forte floats up seven to two, four 251 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: to one. He's definitely worth a win bet at that price. 252 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting you mentioned two Fills there. That was 253 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 3: one of the horses going into the draw. I was 254 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 3: very interested in two Phills draws the three hit show draws. 255 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 3: The one he was the other horse I was interested in. 256 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 3: Both possessed tactical speed. Both I thought have the ability 257 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,679 Speaker 3: to get the distance and with two fills. I mean 258 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 3: that last race was absolutely phenomenal at Turfway Park. We've 259 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 3: seen that Turfway Park form be excellent at Keenlan in 260 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 3: the last meet. Already transition over and you've seen a 261 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 3: couple of prices get home in a couple of days. 262 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 3: We've had Churchill racing so far, so you can't really 263 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 3: just say, oh, it was synthetic. I'm gonna throw it out. 264 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:51,200 Speaker 3: He also attended a hot pace and still held on 265 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 3: when Angel Vampire won. I thought that was a good race. 266 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 3: Ran second to Instant Coffee. Who Oh, by the way, 267 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 3: was one of the betting favorites when that happened as well, 268 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 3: So probably a pretty good race there. I don't dislike 269 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 3: the two Phills take. I agree with you on Drmosotagate. 270 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:05,680 Speaker 3: I mean the horse draws at seventeen UAE has never 271 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 3: won a UA Derby winner, has never won the Derby. 272 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 3: Japan horse has never won the Derby, but you almost 273 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 3: feel like you have to include him on the ticket. 274 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 3: It's talking to some friends earlier today, and it's what 275 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 3: of the horses that can make their own trip, that 276 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 3: can sit close, also want the distance, and are good 277 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 3: enough to win. He's the only one that really fits 278 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 3: all of those, and so the question is to me, 279 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 3: I feel like there will be a Japanese winner of 280 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 3: this race is now and it is a win, not 281 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 3: an if, and so because of that, I'm willing to 282 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 3: take a price around ten to one. He's the one horse. 283 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 3: I'm really interested to see what the odds are because 284 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 3: we've seen a ton of Japanese money come in in 285 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 3: these international races because of how well they've done in 286 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 3: the Breeders' Cup, how well they've done in Dubai, well 287 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,439 Speaker 3: they've done in Saudi Arabia. And so if he ends 288 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 3: up dropping down, I'm probably not interested. But if we 289 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:52,319 Speaker 3: stay in that ten to twelve to one range, I 290 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 3: think it's worth a little bit of a bet. On 291 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 3: the practical move front, this is where we're going to 292 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 3: diverge a little bit. Sire's practical joke not a great distance. 293 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 3: Sire generally doesn't want to go two turns at some point, though, 294 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 3: you have to look at the races and not the Sire. 295 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 3: But my biggest issue with Practical Move is he tripped 296 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 3: out incredibly well in both of those two two turned 297 00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 3: races so far this year. He was able to save 298 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 3: ground on the rail on both turns. He got an 299 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 3: inside run in the Santinita Derby. He had an absolutely 300 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 3: perfect trip in the race prior to that. I'm concerned 301 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 3: about a mile and a quarter if he doesn't get 302 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 3: a perfect trip. Could he get a perfect trip, Sure, 303 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 3: it's possible, but he needs a perfect trip and in 304 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 3: a twenty horse field, to me, it's hard to rely 305 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 3: on a horse that needs a perfect trip to be 306 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 3: able to win the race. 307 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 4: Heay a lot to unpack there, But those are guys 308 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 4: at the top. Is that the guys have mentioned here 309 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 4: hovering in that ten to twelve to one range two 310 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 4: fills in particular, Practical Move is also a ten to 311 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 4: one looking at FanDuel right now, so and something else 312 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 4: that I've noticed too, just taking a look at your 313 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 4: friends of picking winners. Last handful of Kentucky Derby's favorites 314 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 4: have come in that second to fourth. 315 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 2: Range last few years. 316 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 4: Their average finished position has actually gotten better since the 317 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 4: insertion of the Derby years ago also, and this is 318 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 4: where I think the long shot discussion can begin. How 319 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 4: you finish in that final thirty eight seconds of the race, 320 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 4: and who could be some of those horses that you're 321 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 4: looking down with bigger odds, Mike Kanti, when you're looking 322 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 4: down the list, there guys you feel good about that 323 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 4: can be in the in contention in the run there, 324 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 4: in that final sprint when you're biting your nails and 325 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 4: doing god knows what when you're watching this thing on 326 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 4: a big TV on Saturday. 327 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, listen, we talked a little bit about 328 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 1: two pills, right, definitely a horse to include underneath as 329 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: a long shot. At twelve to one. He's number three 330 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: another one. Listen, it's a massive price. I don't think 331 00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: we're getting this price on Derby Day. I'm scratching my 332 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 1: a little bit. I don't understand it. Number seven Reincarnate, Listen, 333 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: he just there's no way that this horse should be 334 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 1: fifty to one. You know, talk about trips. I mean 335 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 1: he's run up against some tough trips. He also got 336 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 1: some decent trips or some trips that I think you 337 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: can't really make an excuse for him. But fifty to 338 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: one is crazy on this horse, you know, so I 339 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 1: think definitely a long shot to think about, and you know, 340 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 1: possibly use Hit Show the number one horse, another horse 341 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: thirty to one. I mean, listen, the horse lost to 342 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 1: Lord Miles right in the wood. But in fairness, Hit 343 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: Show was in between horses late. I'm never a fan 344 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 1: of when my horse that I'm betting on is in 345 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 1: between horses late. He doesn't get as free of a 346 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 1: run right. He had Lord Miles just hugging his hip 347 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: the last eighth of the mile in the wood. If 348 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: he works out again, we talked about trips a lot 349 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 1: if he works out the right trip at a big price. 350 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: Thirty to one another horse that I have to use underneath. 351 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting you mentioned Hit Show. I mean, like 352 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 3: I said, I was really interested this horse. Before the 353 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 3: draw draws a dreaded one post. But that doesn't mean 354 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,119 Speaker 3: the horse can't hit the board still. It kind of 355 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 3: takes out of the wind contention for me. But that 356 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 3: would draw out thirteen posts. So thirteen of thirteen horses 357 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 3: got spun five wide on the first turn. Literally looked 358 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 3: like a carnival ride down the stretch. They were playing 359 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 3: bumper cars with this horse just bouncing off both the 360 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,680 Speaker 3: inside outside horse actually makes the lead, gets bumped pretty 361 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 3: hard by both of them, and then falls back a 362 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:31,679 Speaker 3: little bit, ends up running second to Lord Miles. The 363 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 3: one horse on the rail is the one that caused 364 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,439 Speaker 3: the issue to begin with. That's why there was no 365 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 3: change in the race, and Lord Miles stayed up. If 366 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 3: they all just run straight, hit show wins that race 367 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 3: and you're not staring at thirty to one right now. 368 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 3: So I like to take there for Mike on that 369 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 3: one kind of bury the lead here, I'm going to 370 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,880 Speaker 3: pick a horse on top that's fifteen to one. I'm 371 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 3: going to go to the eight horse Mage on top 372 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,920 Speaker 3: and this is a horse where I mentioned Tapa Trice 373 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 3: has breaking issues, so does Mage. The last two races 374 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 3: been absolutely brutal. We've talked a little lot about the 375 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 3: Florida Derby, and that to me is one of those 376 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 3: races that's just wildly interesting because when you watch the race, 377 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,920 Speaker 3: it is very different than what you see on paper. 378 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 3: All of the contenders were on the outside. We saw 379 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:15,359 Speaker 3: a terrible break from Age. He ended up in the 380 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 3: last when he was projected to be either first or 381 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 3: second or early ends up in last, has to go 382 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 3: four white on the first turn, makes this early move, 383 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 3: goes five white on the second turn, does a great 384 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,679 Speaker 3: job to pin fourt a in gets the jump on 385 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 3: fourte and then just not able to hold off fourte 386 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 3: once four ta gets loose in that final sixteenth of 387 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 3: a mile. The trip before that doesn't break well, rushes 388 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 3: up four wide first turn, gets steadied in the stretch, 389 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 3: but still decides to keep running and try and come 390 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 3: on for third. Those are only two turn races. The 391 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:48,439 Speaker 3: talent is there. Breaking is a massive problem. If this 392 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 3: horse gets out of the gate though, and breaks well 393 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 3: and sitting top five, top six, he should be five 394 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:55,399 Speaker 3: to one in this race, not fifteen. And to me, 395 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 3: that's where I'm willing to take a little bit more 396 00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 3: of a shot in a race that I think is 397 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 3: exceptionally difficult, probably not a Derby. I'm going to be 398 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 3: backing the Brins truck up to bet here, but I 399 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 3: want to try and find prices if I do, and 400 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 3: to me, major at fifteen to one makes a lot 401 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 3: of sense there. 402 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 4: Okay, so there are some long shots. My question now, guys, 403 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,920 Speaker 4: is if someone's new to betting the Derby, that's still 404 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 4: trying to figure out how to go about doing this 405 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 4: the right way or do it smartly. How do you 406 00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:26,120 Speaker 4: juggle the contenders you're interested in and your long shots 407 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 4: and then do you just kind of leave it at 408 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 4: that or what else goes into the formula of trying 409 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,159 Speaker 4: to figure out ways to bet outrights. 410 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,720 Speaker 1: Mike Conti, Yeah, it's a good question, right, So I 411 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 1: think obviously there's a ton of ways that you can 412 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: bet horses. Let's talk really simply, right, we'll talk to 413 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: maybe three different types of bets to keep it really simple. 414 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 1: You've got your wind bet or your win play show, right, 415 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: which is called across the board. That's a bet. Right again, 416 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: if Forte floats up to four to one, that's something 417 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: you take Forte as a win bet. Right now, one 418 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: of these kind of mid range horses that we've talked about, 419 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 1: Angel of Empire at eight to one, Dermosotagake at ten 420 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,360 Speaker 1: to one, Practical Move at ten to one, right, those 421 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 1: are horses that you could very much consider betting across 422 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,160 Speaker 1: the board otherwise known as win place and show right. 423 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 1: Then you get into the vertical wagers, so you're exact 424 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 1: as your trifectas there's a ton of different ways that 425 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 1: you can play those bets. What I would say, you know, 426 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 1: and the way that I talk to my friends that 427 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 1: bet a handful of times a year on horse racing 428 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: is find the horse that you like the most, right, 429 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,439 Speaker 1: and put that horse in each position. So put that 430 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: horse just in first and then pick a number of 431 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: horses in second. Put that horse in second, and put 432 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: a number of horses in first. In an exact e bet. Right, 433 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 1: it's considered a key. So you're keying in on the 434 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:51,400 Speaker 1: horse that you like the most. And for me, I'll 435 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: be keying in on Dermosotagake with a number of the 436 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 1: horses that we mentioned earlier, Angel of Empire, Forte, practical move, 437 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: two phills, hit show you know, or some of the 438 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 1: horses that I'll be keying. So I think those are 439 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,200 Speaker 1: some ways that I'm thinking about betting this race. And 440 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 1: for you know, the less experience betters are the folks 441 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,199 Speaker 1: that are just joining us here for the derby. Some 442 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 1: fun ways to have action without having a ton of exposure. 443 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,440 Speaker 3: I love the advice there. I like the idea of 444 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 3: playing a couple win bets if you like horses that 445 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 3: are a little bit bigger prices if you want to 446 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,239 Speaker 3: sprinkle Kings Barnes in there at twelve to one, if 447 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 3: you want to look at you know, Mage at fifteen 448 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:27,879 Speaker 3: to one. Playing a couple bucks to win always a 449 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 3: good way to do it. The one thing I want 450 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 3: to mention about the Derby. If you want to play 451 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:35,679 Speaker 3: a lottery ticket, the one dollar superfecta is the literal 452 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 3: best bet in racing from a payout perspective over the 453 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 3: last ten to fifteen years. You don't have to spend 454 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 3: a bunch of money. I always play a couple each year. 455 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 3: I don't go crazy with it. I was fortunate enough 456 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 3: to cash almost ten thousand on a twenty four dollars 457 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 3: ticket a couple of years back. My general style is 458 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,399 Speaker 3: to take a few long shots and put them in 459 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:57,440 Speaker 3: the first place position and then play essentially three four 460 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 3: or five horses in second, third, and fourth and try 461 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 3: and sprinkle in some prices in there. And for me, 462 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,360 Speaker 3: this is a great year to do it. The year 463 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,920 Speaker 3: I hit it was the year that Essential Quality ran third, 464 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 3: Spadina's Spirit that one was twelve to one, mandaloin thirty 465 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:11,679 Speaker 3: three to one, and second. I think you can make 466 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 3: a pretty good comp to essential quality from Forte here. 467 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 3: If you look at both two year old champions, both 468 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,680 Speaker 3: won two races, Both want to come from off the pace, 469 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 3: Both didn't really jump forward like you were hoping in 470 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 3: the three year old season. But both were probably the 471 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 3: best horse in the race, but most likely had to 472 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,680 Speaker 3: have traffic trouble. To me, Forte fits that to an 473 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,679 Speaker 3: absolute tea here when you're comparing him to essential quality. 474 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,399 Speaker 3: So that's a great horse to have in that second, 475 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,360 Speaker 3: third and four spot and take some swings up top. 476 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:37,919 Speaker 2: Put angel a. 477 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 3: Vampire on top of a super, foot mage on top 478 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 3: of a super. You know, try Dermosotagatte on top of 479 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,880 Speaker 3: a super. If you play one horse in the first 480 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 3: spot and four horses in the second, third and fourth spot, 481 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 3: it costs you twenty four bucks for a dollar, and 482 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,160 Speaker 3: your returns can be massive in this race. 483 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, we've got picks coming up for the Friday undercard. 484 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 4: Saturday undercard, we of course need to discuss the Kentucky Oaks, 485 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 4: which was down on Friday. We sort of got into 486 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 4: this and I thought it was excellent analysis. Again for 487 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 4: someone who might not be as familiar the discussion about pace, 488 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,200 Speaker 4: I thought was very interesting. 489 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 2: And how you have to factor that. 490 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 4: And also this isn't related to Friday, but there will 491 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 4: be some rain I think mixed in which is no 492 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 4: surprise on Saturday, so something. 493 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 2: It's all coming back to me. 494 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 4: Now we did this episode last year, that was rain 495 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 4: we had to monitor last year as well. But Mike, 496 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:29,400 Speaker 4: Mike CONTI when we look at Kentucky Oaks, how are 497 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 4: we assessing the pool of horses and how conditions and 498 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 4: pace factor into this. 499 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 1: It's interesting for me conditions don't matter. It's not anything 500 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 1: crazy that I'm going to take here, but conditions won't 501 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 1: matter because of how this girl has fared over any 502 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,160 Speaker 1: track in terms of pace. Though right to your point, 503 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: I think, in my opinion, and I'd be interested to 504 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:54,639 Speaker 1: hear Mike's thoughts on this, I think it is a 505 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,680 Speaker 1: little bit more clear or frankly, much more clear on 506 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 1: the pace in the Oaks. Right ten, Flying Connection as 507 00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 1: well as number six Botanical are most likely going to 508 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 1: be the two that are on the lead or out front. 509 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,400 Speaker 1: I think those are clearly two of the horses that 510 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,360 Speaker 1: want the lead or will be close to it if. 511 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 4: Not on it. 512 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: And listen, I think where I landed in this race 513 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 1: again not a brainiact pick here, but number seven wet Paint, 514 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 1: I mean, she just hasn't done anything wrong. She's floated 515 00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:33,400 Speaker 1: over a sloppy race track multiple times at Oaklawn, she's 516 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 1: won over a fast racetrack, and I think what's most 517 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 1: interesting to me is she's closed. She's a closer, right, 518 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:41,679 Speaker 1: so she's definitely gonna have to work out a trip. 519 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 1: But she's closed into some really slow paces, frankly, and 520 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,879 Speaker 1: then she's also closed into some faster paces. So I 521 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,439 Speaker 1: don't I'm not as worried about the pace set up 522 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 1: for her, not as big of a field in the derby. 523 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: I'm very confident in her and I'm really excited by 524 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: the prospects of her. So that's where I'm going to 525 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 1: land in this race. I don't know, Mike, what your thoughts. 526 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 3: Are, good pick, I agree with you. Look, Web Paint 527 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,199 Speaker 3: is just she's rolling right now. I mean, she's been 528 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 3: phenomenal in her last couple races. You mentioned it closed 529 00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 3: into a one thirteen six furlongs, two back, close into 530 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,640 Speaker 3: a little bit quicker pace last time is, one over 531 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 3: the sloppy track, one over a fast track last time out, 532 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,800 Speaker 3: and I think there's a lot of pace signed up here. 533 00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 3: I mean you mentioned the ten Flying Connection and the 534 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 3: sixth Botanical who I think we should probably get into 535 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 3: a little bit here. But the twelfth doorth Vader is 536 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,560 Speaker 3: a very fast horse, went forty five flat in the 537 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 3: Devona Dale. Was only a half length off that half 538 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 3: mile pace. The fourteen pretty mischievous adding blinkers drawing the 539 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,880 Speaker 3: outside to me is one hundred percent going to try 540 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 3: and go at least somewhat early, And so all of 541 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 3: a sudden you have four horses up there tussling for 542 00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 3: the lead. That sets it up phenomenally for wet paint 543 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 3: to be able to come from off it and be 544 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 3: able to make that move. We saw a secret both 545 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 3: win this race last year. She made this sweeping wide 546 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,359 Speaker 3: move around the turn and astutely buried the field. I 547 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if it's almost a carbon copy of 548 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 3: that for wet paint this year. And it sets up 549 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 3: a nice situation where they have something called the Oaks 550 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,360 Speaker 3: Derby Double. And we talked about prices in the Derby, 551 00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,800 Speaker 3: but you can single wet paint here and then play 552 00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 3: four or five of them in the Derby and get 553 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 3: a better price than what the windmutual be. So it's 554 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 3: a great way to kind of play the two races 555 00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 3: and give yourself a little bit more outs going into 556 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,719 Speaker 3: Saturday if you're already sitting there in pocket with a 557 00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 3: double ticket that you have and will pays that are 558 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,440 Speaker 3: known for so it gives you essentially a win bet 559 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,679 Speaker 3: on three, four or five different horses, depending on how 560 00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 3: many you'd like to play. Going into the Derby. 561 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:31,200 Speaker 2: Wet Paint. 562 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,439 Speaker 4: It was a sloppy main track at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and 563 00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:38,359 Speaker 4: it did not matter. She was victorious. So some great names, 564 00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:42,160 Speaker 4: by the way, the horses here in the for Kentucky 565 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 4: Oaks without question. So wet Paint at five to two 566 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 4: is what I'm seeing as of right now for the 567 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 4: Oaks on Friday. 568 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 2: All right, good. 569 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:56,200 Speaker 4: Stuff, let's move on here. So we'll just best bets here, guys. 570 00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,800 Speaker 4: We'll go Conti and saw Shut Sawmage back and forth. 571 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,479 Speaker 4: Well go Friday, first best bets for Oaks and then 572 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,640 Speaker 4: best bets for Kentucky Derby. 573 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 2: Mike Contes start us off. 574 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, so listen, I think best bet this is not 575 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:14,040 Speaker 1: anything again, no brainiac pick here. I think in terms 576 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,719 Speaker 1: of if you're thinking about playing a multi race wager, right, 577 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 1: So if you're thinking about the pick five that ends 578 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 1: in the Kentucky Oaks, we talked about Wet Paint probably 579 00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 1: being a single in there. There's another horse in this 580 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 1: sequence of races that I also think is a single. 581 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 1: In race eight, it's a non grade at stakes race. 582 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:36,680 Speaker 1: It's Caravel, this horse. I'm not quite sure why this 583 00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 1: horse is entered in here. I mean, this horse has 584 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 1: faced far better competition, and one I would argue easily 585 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 1: against far better competition. Four to five you're not getting 586 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,200 Speaker 1: much of a price, but it is a horse. I 587 00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,199 Speaker 1: think that becomes another single and allows you to go 588 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,200 Speaker 1: deeper in some other spots. The race before that, race seven, 589 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 1: the eight Bells, I landed on number three, Olivia Twist 590 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 1: at to one. Listen, you draw two lines through the 591 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,119 Speaker 1: two sloppy races that she ran. Also, we were just 592 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,440 Speaker 1: singing the praises of Wet Paint. In her last three 593 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,120 Speaker 1: starts she lost to Wet Paint. So if you think 594 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 1: wet Paint is that good, I would move Olivia Twist 595 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 1: forward because of that. I think there's enough pace signed 596 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 1: on in this race. So at twelve to one, a 597 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 1: horse that I will definitely be using. Mike also before 598 00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:28,640 Speaker 1: mentioned last year's Kentucky Oaks winner, who's running in race 599 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 1: nine on the undercart of the Oaks Secret Oath who 600 00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 1: I love her big middle move. She's got a great 601 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,400 Speaker 1: turn of foot with that middle move. The interesting horse 602 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 1: in that race to me is number two. Search results 603 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 1: been off for a little bit of time, getting four 604 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 1: to one on her. When you go back and you 605 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 1: look at who she's lost to, the majority of her 606 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:53,000 Speaker 1: losses are to some amazing phillies and mayors, right, I 607 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,400 Speaker 1: mean Malethat Maleth, that was an absolute beast of a horse. 608 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 1: So I think that there's no reason not to include. 609 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 1: And then I really like and I liked heurn her 610 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: last start at Keenland in Race ten the Edgewood Steakes. 611 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 1: I really like number nine Papo Leo at seven to 612 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 1: two in that last start at Keenland. I believe she 613 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,400 Speaker 1: was twelve to one morning line got that way down. 614 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 1: She was super green in the stretch. There are people 615 00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 1: that probably were calling for her to get disqualified. I 616 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,280 Speaker 1: was sitting here with my fingers crossed, hoping the stewarts 617 00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 1: were going to say no, no change. In anything, which 618 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,280 Speaker 1: they did. Listen, if she can straighten things out in 619 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 1: the stretch, I think that she could win this race 620 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 1: for fun, So some different ways to play, you know. 621 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 1: Those are some horses that I like in the late 622 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:40,360 Speaker 1: pick five sequence. Some prices, some not so big prices, 623 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,200 Speaker 1: but still a fun way, you know, to play that 624 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:45,400 Speaker 1: sequence of races. Mike, what do you got? 625 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm from an Oak's perspective. Bet I'm probably going 626 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,560 Speaker 3: to play a pretty big straight exact. I mean, we 627 00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,280 Speaker 3: talked quite a bit about Wet Paint. I like the 628 00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 3: four horse in this spot to run second there, and 629 00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 3: that is south Lawn for Norm Cassie looked awesome in 630 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:02,680 Speaker 3: the fair Ground Oaks. I thought that was one of 631 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 3: the better races we've seen. Beat pretty Mischievous and the 632 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 3: Alley's Look, who are both in this spot. South On 633 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 3: another horse that can run into pace and should get 634 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,760 Speaker 3: a beautiful setup, should actually be more forwardly placed than 635 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,080 Speaker 3: Wet Paint. My guess is south Bound gets the lead 636 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 3: down the stretch and Wet Paint has to run her down. 637 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,040 Speaker 3: I think she does it right now. It's five to 638 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 3: two over eight to one. My guess is you're getting 639 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:22,880 Speaker 3: somewhere around twelve thirteen to one on race day because 640 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 3: I expect wet paint to be bet down a little bit, 641 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:26,360 Speaker 3: so I think that's a great way to attack the 642 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,200 Speaker 3: Oaks as well as playing the Oaks Derby double. Like 643 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,520 Speaker 3: we mentioned prior to this, that late pick five could 644 00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 3: be very chalky. You've got the nine hors Money's Gold, 645 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:36,200 Speaker 3: who I think is probably going to be the shortest 646 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,960 Speaker 3: price on the entire card, who's opening up that sequence. 647 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 3: I thought Mike made a good case there for the 648 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,120 Speaker 3: three at twelve to one. The other thing that I 649 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,040 Speaker 3: want to say about that race as well, and specifically 650 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,440 Speaker 3: the three Lily Twist. A lot of times you see 651 00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:50,920 Speaker 3: horses cutting back to one turn after trying to get 652 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:52,560 Speaker 3: on the Oaks circuit or trying to get on the 653 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,440 Speaker 3: Derby circuit, and you see these very good one turn races, 654 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:57,640 Speaker 3: and then you see back to back to back MYLA 655 00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,200 Speaker 3: sixteenth my own a quarter type races, and that's exactly 656 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,280 Speaker 3: what it is with her. She's probably better sprinter than 657 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 3: she is going two turns, so she's back to doing 658 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,240 Speaker 3: what she is good at today. One price I like 659 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,320 Speaker 3: in this sequence, I feel like as a horse, yet 660 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,040 Speaker 3: you kind of have to include if you're going to 661 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 3: be playing the pick five ten to one on the 662 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 3: ten horse Flashy Gem in the tenth race here, this 663 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,239 Speaker 3: is a brad Cox horse. The Louise Size is going 664 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,360 Speaker 3: to ride. We talked about that Turfway Park form transitioning 665 00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,719 Speaker 3: very well over. This is a horse that just ran 666 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:24,800 Speaker 3: twice at Turfway Park. 667 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 2: It's a race. 668 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 3: I don't see a massive amount of pacin and Luis 669 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,240 Speaker 3: Saia is very good at fourdly placing horses. I have 670 00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 3: a feeling that Flashy Gem is going to be on 671 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:34,640 Speaker 3: the lead and if Flashy Gem is able to get 672 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,320 Speaker 3: away with slower fractions, ten to one is gonna look 673 00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 3: like a steal when that horse is turnning for home. 674 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, good stuff. I like the exactest too, and working 675 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:44,640 Speaker 4: those in there, guys. 676 00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:45,120 Speaker 2: Good stuff. 677 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:49,120 Speaker 4: Let's move on to Saturday for the derby. If you, guys, 678 00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:51,680 Speaker 4: if you each of you have anything on pick five 679 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:56,560 Speaker 4: legs heading in or races five and seven, please feel 680 00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:00,200 Speaker 4: free to add. But we're looking for best bets here 681 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 4: on the Action Network podcast before we wrap and get 682 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 4: this out. So Mike Conti, let you go first and 683 00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:05,800 Speaker 4: we'll go over. 684 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 1: To Sawich yeah, So listen, I think there are two 685 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 1: horses that I'm very interested in. One of the horses 686 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 1: that I'm interested in is in a wide open race, 687 00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 1: Race nine the American Turf. I really like number four, 688 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 1: Talk of the Nation. The horses ten to one on 689 00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 1: the morning line. Now listen this race from a multi 690 00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,720 Speaker 1: race sequence, you can make a case to hit all 691 00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 1: in this race. Frankly, it's a really really challenging race. 692 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,920 Speaker 1: But listen, Talk of the Nation hasn't done anything wrong. 693 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,240 Speaker 1: Is a horse that's really interesting at a big price, 694 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,920 Speaker 1: someone that I'll be including and probably be making a 695 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:45,640 Speaker 1: win bet on. Since they turned this horse over to 696 00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,480 Speaker 1: the turf course, we've seen a new horse right two 697 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,760 Speaker 1: for two over the turf beat another horse in this 698 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 1: race must Dash in his last start. So just you know, 699 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 1: I think a horse that's very interesting to me at 700 00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 1: a big price. Their best bet that I would say 701 00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,840 Speaker 1: for me is in race eleven, number five, up to 702 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,560 Speaker 1: the mark at four to one. You know, it's an 703 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:13,440 Speaker 1: Irad Ortiz ridden horse. I just think that this horse really, frankly, 704 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,800 Speaker 1: a tough tough time last time out, not a bad trip, 705 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,280 Speaker 1: but there was no pace in that maker's mark mile race, 706 00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:25,959 Speaker 1: and the horse still was closing never got there. Modern 707 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 1: Games was the overwhelming favorite, and you know Modern Games 708 00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:33,000 Speaker 1: couldn't get there because of how weak the pace was 709 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 1: in that maker's mark mile. I think there definitely is 710 00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 1: more pace signed on in this race at four to one. 711 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,040 Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to get four to one, 712 00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,280 Speaker 1: but if we do, you know, talk about back in 713 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,479 Speaker 1: the Brinks truck up. This could be the spot for 714 00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 1: me to do that as well. So I would say 715 00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:50,320 Speaker 1: those are two of my best bets. I'll let Mike 716 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 1: talk to his. 717 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:53,480 Speaker 3: I actually like the up to the mark pick quite 718 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:54,959 Speaker 3: a bit there. That was one that I started as 719 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,880 Speaker 3: a possible single and a very very very tough late 720 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 3: pick five sequence. Here one mother note on up to 721 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 3: the mark. The horse that ran two backed up to 722 00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 3: the mark two races ago. Smoking Tea is the one 723 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,160 Speaker 3: horse in the three race on Friday six to one 724 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:10,960 Speaker 3: on the morning line. That's going to be a win 725 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 3: bet for me. It's the one horse race three. Smoking 726 00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,080 Speaker 3: Tea on Friday is one who had his faced a 727 00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:17,840 Speaker 3: lot better than what we are going to be facing 728 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 3: and was on the eleven post and the twelve post 729 00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,160 Speaker 3: the previous two races, so huge post position upgrade facing 730 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,680 Speaker 3: much weaker. That's three or the one horse in the 731 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 3: third race on Friday. As for this late pick five sequence, 732 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,240 Speaker 3: I think that we kind of agree on the spread 733 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:35,319 Speaker 3: races here. I love the pick of the four in 734 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,440 Speaker 3: that specific race, the ninth race. I thought there were 735 00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,520 Speaker 3: two other long shots that you had to take a 736 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:41,480 Speaker 3: look at and want to include in your pick five tickets. 737 00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,799 Speaker 3: The five horse Johannes likely going to be a lone 738 00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:46,640 Speaker 3: leader and likely loose on the lead, so that's one 739 00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:48,480 Speaker 3: that I'm going to include at fifteen to one. And 740 00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:51,400 Speaker 3: the three Mendelssons March is a turf horse who's been 741 00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,160 Speaker 3: running on the dirt and we are back to the 742 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,879 Speaker 3: turf today. Twelve to one on the three Mendlstin's March. 743 00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:57,600 Speaker 3: I think that's a horse you want to include in 744 00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:59,880 Speaker 3: your tickets as well. I got two best bets that 745 00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:02,960 Speaker 3: I I'm looking forward to playing on Saturday. The first one, 746 00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,600 Speaker 3: I'm gonna go to race number four and I'm going 747 00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 3: to go ahead and take a shot at your Breeders' 748 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:11,680 Speaker 3: Cup champion. Good Night, Olive. She's been very good. I 749 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,160 Speaker 3: think she's going to get wildly over bet in this spot, 750 00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,680 Speaker 3: and I really like the five horse Matchaya second off 751 00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,480 Speaker 3: the layoff for brag Cox here. This horse was as 752 00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 3: good as good Night Olive last year took a big 753 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,800 Speaker 3: time break. We saw her only one time on March thirty, 754 00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,960 Speaker 3: first after August six, twenty twenty two. Now we get 755 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,120 Speaker 3: second off the layoffs, second out as a four year old. 756 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,279 Speaker 3: I think she's sitting on a very big race, and 757 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,480 Speaker 3: I think you get the right price to better today. 758 00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:37,839 Speaker 3: So I'm gonna play match Ray over Goodnight Olive there. 759 00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:41,160 Speaker 3: And then in literally my arch nemesis, a race that 760 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:44,440 Speaker 3: I just can never get right, I'm gonna go ahead 761 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,080 Speaker 3: and single as well, and that's going to be your 762 00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,320 Speaker 3: eighth race on the card here, the Pat Day Mile, 763 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,280 Speaker 3: which essentially is the Boulevard of broken dreams for horses 764 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,759 Speaker 3: on the Triple Crown Trail. I'm gonna go to the 765 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,839 Speaker 3: seven horse four brag And the big reason is if 766 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,680 Speaker 3: you go back and you watch the Florida Derby, we 767 00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:02,120 Speaker 3: talked about horses not breaking. How weird that race was. 768 00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:04,720 Speaker 3: Fort Bragg broke out of the ten post and broke 769 00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:08,080 Speaker 3: so bad that ended up crossing in between the sixth 770 00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:09,839 Speaker 3: and the seven to go, get the lead and go 771 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,160 Speaker 3: run a forty six a half one ten six three 772 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,719 Speaker 3: one ten six furlongs. Never had a prayer to hold 773 00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:17,960 Speaker 3: on in that race. We talked about horses I think 774 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,120 Speaker 3: are better one turn than two. Fort Bragg is a 775 00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,759 Speaker 3: better one turn horse than two turn horse. You're getting 776 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,640 Speaker 3: nine to two. It's a salty race. I'm willing to 777 00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:27,160 Speaker 3: take a shot there and see if I can be 778 00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:29,160 Speaker 3: right there, so it allows me to spread more in 779 00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,360 Speaker 3: a couple of other races in that late pick five sequence. 780 00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:33,719 Speaker 2: All right, very good. 781 00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,480 Speaker 4: Outside of like listening back to this and figuring out 782 00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,400 Speaker 4: what to bet, I may need to go watch the 783 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:42,000 Speaker 4: Florida Derby because the amount of Florida Derby drops on 784 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:42,839 Speaker 4: this podcast. 785 00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:44,680 Speaker 2: Now, I feel like I gotta go watch some film. 786 00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,520 Speaker 4: And Kanti, didn't you say there was like a you 787 00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,160 Speaker 4: said there was a drone camera that gave special angles 788 00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:51,440 Speaker 4: for the That. 789 00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:53,200 Speaker 1: Was for the Santa Nita Derby. 790 00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:57,840 Speaker 4: Okay, all right, very good gents, looking forward to it Friday, 791 00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,720 Speaker 4: Oak Saturday, the Derby, and of course these undercard bets 792 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,200 Speaker 4: that they just gave out. All goes down at Churchill 793 00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:08,640 Speaker 4: Downs on Saturday in Louisville. Mike Conti, Mike saw Sawmich 794 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:10,080 Speaker 4: excuse me, thanks for joining us. 795 00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:10,439 Speaker 2: Mike. 796 00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:12,319 Speaker 4: You can find his work over at Action Network, Mike 797 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,840 Speaker 4: Conti at Action Network and Mike Sawmich contributor to Racing 798 00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:17,080 Speaker 4: Dudes Racing Dudes. 799 00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:18,840 Speaker 2: Dot com, Jent's great stuff. 800 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,759 Speaker 4: Enjoyed it, and folks at home, thanks for listening to 801 00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:25,480 Speaker 4: the Action Network podcast. We're presented by Fandel Enjoy the 802 00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,439 Speaker 4: one hundred and forty ninth renewal of the Greatest two 803 00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,719 Speaker 4: Minutes in Sports Friday and Saturday. 804 00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:32,759 Speaker 2: Enjoy it, and we'll talk to you again real soon. 805 00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:38,359 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 806 00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:42,560 Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 807 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,319 Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 808 00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:46,240 Speaker 4: hundred Gambler