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Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, chief Content officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: NBA Finals are starting in forty eight hours. It is Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: May thirty one when we are recording this episode. In

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Speaker 1: a moment, we will bring on Action Network NBA expert,

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Speaker 1: one of the original Action networkers, one of the first

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Speaker 1: hires we made because we knew the NBA was so important,

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Speaker 1: Matt Moore, who was also celebrating his birthday today. Mate.

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Speaker 1: And then we're gonna bring on another original Action networker

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Speaker 1: who has turned into despite being one of our most

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Speaker 1: valuable NFL contributors, has turned into the hottest NBA better

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Speaker 1: in all the land. And a little bit of hockey

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Speaker 1: selted in there, Chris Raybon. We're gonna get to both

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Speaker 1: of those guys. We're gonna talk about the NBA Finals,

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Speaker 1: which I couldn't be more excited about. I have watched

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Speaker 1: just about every single game of the NBA Playoffs, at

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Speaker 1: least the ones I can stay up for. Simon Hunter,

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Speaker 1: you know, how much I love the n B A

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Speaker 1: professional better my bff, my companion, Mike and Padre fright

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Speaker 1: in Philadelphia, z own. I know you want to get

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Speaker 1: to the NFL season, but dude, I am so freaking

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Speaker 1: psyched for Celtics Warriors finals. I cannot tell you. I

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Speaker 1: try to enjoy these days. This is it, right, this

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Speaker 1: is our last gasp of sports. I mean, we all

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Speaker 1: watched tolerant baseball, but this is really it like Premier

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Speaker 1: League coming to an end, NBA coming to an end,

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Speaker 1: hockey coming to an end. This if you're a sports fan,

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Speaker 1: you kind of just get it all in right before

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Speaker 1: you just wait those long summer days until college football

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Speaker 1: NFL kicks off. So I try to appreciate these days.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I probably lose a Chris. We're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: to Chriss. He's on a heater. This is why you

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Speaker 1: usually lose the most amount of money, because I'm just

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Speaker 1: chasing the hot I'm just chasing that last sports It's like,

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Speaker 1: do I know anything that's going on in this NBA game? No,

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Speaker 1: but I'm gonna bet it just because I'm watching it tonight.

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Speaker 1: So I feel like most people in the same boat.

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Speaker 1: Where's just you're betting these games at the end of

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Speaker 1: the year, just because it's about to be just baseball,

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Speaker 1: which is not that fun. Well, listen, I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna delay. I'm not gonna dilly dally, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna bring in Matt More. I'm gonna bring in Raybon.

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Speaker 1: Uh in a second, just a reminder. Uh. You can

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Speaker 1: listen to Matt Moore on The Buckets podcast, which is outstanding,

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Speaker 1: and they released two episodes this morning, one previewing him

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson another Action Network contributor, Joe dolera Um. They

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Speaker 1: released two pods this morning, one focused on just Game

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Speaker 1: one bets you got forty it I wants to figure

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Speaker 1: that out, and also series bets, which you can use

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Speaker 1: this pod as a tool to think about the entire

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Speaker 1: series throughout the process and be thinking about how you

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Speaker 1: want to bet it as games go on. Matt Moore,

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Speaker 1: Chris Raybon, Welcome to the Favorites boys, Matt, Happy birthday,

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Speaker 1: Thanks Jeah, thanks for having me on. Raybon. You are

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Speaker 1: on some kind of streak right now. My friend. I

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Speaker 1: feel like I'm not gonna you know what, I usually

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Speaker 1: get the summer off from podcast or or NBA type podcast.

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Speaker 1: So now we're officially telling the world and uh, it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be downhill from here. No, no, no, no, listen,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about this. But I think in like

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Speaker 1: your last seventeen picks, you're something like fourteen and three. No, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: get it right. If you're gonna do that, you gotta

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Speaker 1: get it right. All right. You didn't tell it to

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Speaker 1: me sixteen, didn't one in the last seventeen sixty and

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Speaker 1: twenty since April one. Damn dude. I'm just every it's

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Speaker 1: it's miserable though, because every time I make it bet,

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Speaker 1: I'm just like waiting for it to and I'm waiting

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Speaker 1: till it was like eight in a row. Like all right, well,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about this number one, number one A.

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Speaker 1: I want to be a realist here because at Action

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Speaker 1: Network we have sort of assiduously not been the place

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Speaker 1: that is always promoting winning streaks because we don't believe

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Speaker 1: in winning streaks. We believe in the good work that

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Speaker 1: people do and extended success over longer windows with much

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Speaker 1: much bigger data sets to work off of much bigger

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Speaker 1: sample sizes. But this is freaking insane and there's going

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Speaker 1: to be an end. You're going to regress back to

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Speaker 1: the mean. That's why I can't jinx you because we

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Speaker 1: are rational beings. That's what you and I both are.

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Speaker 1: We are rational beings. Raybon In the meantime, six s

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Speaker 1: and one, what the fund is going up? Why is

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Speaker 1: this happening to you? I have no idea. I just

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Speaker 1: just roll out the flow, trying to make quality, but

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Speaker 1: not not just bet bet and uh, trying to keep going.

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Speaker 1: But what are you working off of? Are you working

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Speaker 1: off of other people's picks? Are you working off of

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Speaker 1: other people's research, are you working on player props and models?

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Speaker 1: What are you doing? I'm definitely so, I'm definitely tunnel vision.

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Speaker 1: I don't even like to look at anyone else's picks

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Speaker 1: because a lot of people I respect obviously work here

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Speaker 1: and stuff I don't. I don't even want to get

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Speaker 1: that in my head. So I just really don't. Um, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's just it's just a little bit of modeling, a

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Speaker 1: little bit of just um, you know, using our bet

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Speaker 1: labs too, and kind of especially with playoffs NBA and

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Speaker 1: NHL A like it's you know, you have you have

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Speaker 1: a larger sample size than you think, because you have

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Speaker 1: two teams playing each other over and over again, you

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Speaker 1: can also use some of the regular season data and

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Speaker 1: then they're just spots human reactions. You know, I remember

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Speaker 1: one one, but I've an idea, like like a week

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Speaker 1: or two ago, was Reggie Bullock over two and a

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Speaker 1: half threes? The day after he went over ten, Like

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Speaker 1: like how you know that was like almost guaranteed the cash.

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Speaker 1: It's like if you if you just watch NBA playoffs

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Speaker 1: from long enough, you know how these things go. So

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Speaker 1: just a matter of kind of incorporating human nature into

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Speaker 1: some of it. This is the most subdued and humble

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Speaker 1: I've ever heard you. It's my second sport. I'm always

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Speaker 1: gonna talk more in NFL because you know, I just

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Speaker 1: got the I gotta carry these guys like Simon Hunter

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Speaker 1: and Chad Millman and and now I won't even say

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Speaker 1: Sean Karner. Um let's sen to the finals. Man, it

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Speaker 1: ain't about me, But let's let's talk about this matchup. Alright,

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Speaker 1: We'll fine, let's talk about the finals. I'm almost uncomfortable.

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Speaker 1: We've got a birthday rage rager to go to. I'm

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Speaker 1: uncomfortable with the way you're deflecting your success. But that's fine. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's just not like you. So yeah, help out the

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Speaker 1: ball club. Do the best that I can. Uh, let's

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Speaker 1: talk about the finals. They're starting in forty eight hours.

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Speaker 1: The Warriors are minus one sixty ish favorites um. For

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Speaker 1: the record, I had the Warriors and five against the MAVs.

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Speaker 1: I had the Celtics and seven against the Heat. I

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Speaker 1: said both of those things on the podcast. I'm in

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Speaker 1: it right now. Warriors in six, and I know this

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Speaker 1: is going against the models of so many betters. Matt Moore,

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Speaker 1: Why are so many people within the NBA community finding

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Speaker 1: numbers that favor the Celtics in this series because they've

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Speaker 1: been the best team in basketball since January. The numbers

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Speaker 1: for Boston are so overwhelmingly strong since then, and they've

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Speaker 1: carried through the playoffs. You have to remember that the

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Speaker 1: Warriors during that same stretches of time, when a lot

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Speaker 1: of these guys are working off those numbers, they were

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Speaker 1: without Steph Curry for a long stretch. They without Draymond

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Speaker 1: Green for part of that, and then as soon as

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Speaker 1: Draymond got back, Steph Curry goes out. So the Warriors numbers,

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Speaker 1: I think are a little deflated because of that. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, like Golden State has been good, not

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Speaker 1: amazing versus the Celtics who have been not amazing, but

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Speaker 1: it faced such a strong opponent stretch. Once you get

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Speaker 1: into the details, you start to find some cracks in

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Speaker 1: that veneer. But that's partially I think why Boston comes

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Speaker 1: out ahead here. They've been the best defense over that span.

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Speaker 1: Their offense has been great over that span, and when's

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Speaker 1: they've been their offense has been terrific, even versus good

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Speaker 1: defenses like Milwaukee and Miami. So that I think is

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Speaker 1: why from a numbers perspective that Boston comes out ahead.

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Speaker 1: And a lot of these models, I don't necessarily know

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Speaker 1: if the models are accurately representing everything, especially on the

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Speaker 1: warrior's side, but on some level, Boston, and this is

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Speaker 1: kind of carried through is Boston has been so good

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Speaker 1: it's hard to deny their level of elite in terms

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Speaker 1: of the numbers. All right, that's a good explanation. Ray

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Speaker 1: bon A move to you, how do you model this?

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Speaker 1: How do you see a plan out? So I get

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Speaker 1: good warriors the energy here, and I don't think it

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Speaker 1: comes down um, you know due to two of the

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Speaker 1: top defense is in the league. Um, this is one

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Speaker 1: of the handful of times in NBA Finals history you've

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Speaker 1: got the top two teams in terms of defensive rating

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Speaker 1: faring off. But and Matt might have been alluding to

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Speaker 1: this when he said, you know, there's some cracks in

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Speaker 1: the Celtics venear. I just look at the way the

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Speaker 1: Celtics played against Milwaukee in Miami, and I say, you know,

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Speaker 1: first of all, great, you know, bouncing back from adversity

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Speaker 1: every time you lose a game, you win a game,

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Speaker 1: you know, losing game one of both of those series,

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Speaker 1: winning in seven, Um, great accomplishments. You know, holding off

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Speaker 1: Miami at the end there even was it was tough,

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Speaker 1: but they barely squeaked out these last two series. And

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are gonna say it was it

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Speaker 1: was against the honest it was against jim you know,

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Speaker 1: Jimmy five games of all world Jimmy Butler or four games,

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Speaker 1: I guess of all world Jimmy Butler. But the Warriors

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Speaker 1: are totally different, especially than Miami, because the Warriors players

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Speaker 1: and on office they just have gravity like Miami had

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Speaker 1: p J. Tucker, who if you watched the games. He

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Speaker 1: wasn't even in the corn where he's supposed to be

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Speaker 1: all the time, like p J. Tucker was just like

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Speaker 1: lingering around like the wing and like the dunker spot.

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Speaker 1: Like it was just the spacing was terrible for Miami. Um.

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Speaker 1: Then you had Bam who was not would be aggressive

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Speaker 1: like every third game. Um. And Jimmy Butler is a

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Speaker 1: twenty something percent three point shooter for the season. He

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Speaker 1: was making a few more of them. But um, the

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Speaker 1: Warriors just presents such a more difficult matchup. And I

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Speaker 1: think because both of these teams are gonna show up

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Speaker 1: on defense and can kind of counter the other's best

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Speaker 1: and most dangerous lineup offensively with defense. Um, I just

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Speaker 1: worry about the Celtics offense, um, you know, and compared

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Speaker 1: to the Warriors, because the Celtics offense it wasn't amazing

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Speaker 1: throughout this stretch. That's kind of why it took him

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Speaker 1: seven to to to you know, put Away, the Bucks

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Speaker 1: took him seven and put Away to heat. But the

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Speaker 1: differences those teams are going cold that time because they

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Speaker 1: just don't have the same gravity on you know, on

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Speaker 1: their side on offensive side of ball. So I think

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Speaker 1: the old Steph Clay. Golden State might even to be

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Speaker 1: able to play that death Star line with Georgan Poole,

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Speaker 1: you know if depending on you know, the matchup with

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Speaker 1: Robert Williams and Looney and how much Williams can play

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Speaker 1: and this in that So I just think offensively, the

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Speaker 1: Warriors actually have the edge, and that's why I give them,

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Speaker 1: you know, the slight edge of the series. Man, who

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Speaker 1: do you view as the most important player like matchup

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Speaker 1: wise for both teams in this series. So I'm doing

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Speaker 1: an article on this for me in terms of the

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Speaker 1: most important player for me, it's gonna be Draymond Actually. Uh,

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Speaker 1: the reason is if Draymond doesn't play well, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if the Warriors have a chance. Steph cannot have

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Speaker 1: big games and still have the impact like Steph steps

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Speaker 1: on the court and everybody's worried about him hitting thirty

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Speaker 1: five footers. Uh. If Clay doesn't have a good game,

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Speaker 1: Jordan Pool can step up, right. They have multiple options

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Speaker 1: that can do what those guys do. No one on

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Speaker 1: the floor for either team does what Draymond does, where

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Speaker 1: he's the hubblical offense in terms of the passing and

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Speaker 1: he's the anchor of the defense, and he has to

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Speaker 1: make so many plays, not only switching and covering guys

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Speaker 1: like Tatum and shutting down those opportunity needs to challenge him,

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Speaker 1: but helping when Steph gets beat because Steph and Pool

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Speaker 1: are not great defenders, so he covers a lot of

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Speaker 1: the time for them while also recovering. He makes all

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Speaker 1: those little plays like slapping the ball away on the

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Speaker 1: underneath with the refs can't see it, often times getting

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Speaker 1: risk like. He makes so many plays that to me,

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Speaker 1: Draymond is the most important because the Warriors defense, to

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Speaker 1: Chris's point, if the Warriors defense is able to just

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Speaker 1: bring the Celtics offense to just a little bit lower

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Speaker 1: than they're pretty good level than the Warriors floor, even

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Speaker 1: against a great defense like Boston, puts Golden State in

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Speaker 1: a really strong opportunity to win. All right, Matt I

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Speaker 1: have said I like the Warriors in six. RayBan has

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Speaker 1: said he thinks the series, uh that the Warriors. He

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Speaker 1: likes the Warriors in this series. You said off the

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Speaker 1: top that you could see why the numbers and a

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Speaker 1: lot of the models favored the Celtics. You are as

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Speaker 1: analytical as it gets. You study a crapload of film.

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Speaker 1: You are studying offensive ratings, you are stuttering studying shooting

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Speaker 1: percentages off of pick and rolls. Tell me your take

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Speaker 1: on the Finals. So I've got Celtics, and the reason

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Speaker 1: that I've got Celtics has a lot to do with

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Speaker 1: Boston has been able to find the answers defensively. Part

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Speaker 1: of it. Raybond's point about the Celtics offense, I think

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Speaker 1: is on point. But here's kind of the key here.

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Speaker 1: Boston doesn't need their offense to run smooth. It doesn't

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Speaker 1: need to run perfectly. It doesn't need to look awesome.

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Speaker 1: That's not how they win games. They get just enough

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Speaker 1: contributions from whoever, from guys like Al Horford or Grant

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Speaker 1: Williams or Derek White. They've had guys consistently step up.

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Speaker 1: This matchup is fascinating because Golden State has not faced

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Speaker 1: a defense like Boston, and Boston has not faced an

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Speaker 1: offense like Golden State. Early on the series, I think

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be a shock factor for Boston. Everybody gets

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Speaker 1: caught off guard by the Warriors movement. It's unlike anything else.

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Speaker 1: But Boston is good enough to be able I think

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Speaker 1: to take one of the two games in the Bay.

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Speaker 1: As long as the series goes long, Boston will be

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Speaker 1: able to make the adjustments and get better and better

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Speaker 1: at this Warrior's offense. And this Warrior's offense kind of

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Speaker 1: under the radar is not what it was like. This

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Speaker 1: is not the fifteen sixteen offense, and it's definitely not

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Speaker 1: what it was with Kadie. As they get more used

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Speaker 1: to those, I think Boston's gonna be able to drag

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Speaker 1: down Golden State a little bit closer to what they need.

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Speaker 1: And then you've got Golden State who has more weak

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Speaker 1: points defensively, even as good as they are with Jordan's pool,

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Speaker 1: Steph Curry, some of the bench guys for them to

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Speaker 1: be able to make plays. I think this is a

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Speaker 1: very close series. But for me, the value when I'm

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Speaker 1: getting a plus number on a team that's been as

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Speaker 1: good as Boston that has found the answers, I think

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Speaker 1: Boston is where the value is found. I'm betting it

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Speaker 1: very specifically as a series goes on. Like I have

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Speaker 1: a plus seven hundred Warriors over Celtics ticket from early May,

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Speaker 1: I have a plus nine hundred Celtics over Warriors ticket

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Speaker 1: from the second round, so I've set myself up on

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Speaker 1: either side, but when I look at how the matchups go,

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Speaker 1: I leaned towards Boston just slightly, having the edge over

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Speaker 1: Golden State enough to think the value is there and

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Speaker 1: what I think is close to a coin flip series.

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Speaker 1: Why do I agree so much with Raybund right now?

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Speaker 1: I look at this, I look at this, and again,

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Speaker 1: I'm a massive NBA fan. I don't study it the

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Speaker 1: way you guys do it, but I'm watching every game

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Speaker 1: and I think about it from a betting point of view.

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Speaker 1: Part of me feels like there is a massive amount

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Speaker 1: of recency bias that is going into every single model

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Speaker 1: that you and your analytics colleagues are making. Uh. I

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Speaker 1: heard you talk about it on the podcast with Brandon

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Speaker 1: and Joe. I've seen on social a lot of people

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Speaker 1: talking about favoring the Celtics in the series, and I

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Speaker 1: think that Warriors have every advantage right now. I think

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Speaker 1: they are. I think their offensive ceiling is much much higher.

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Speaker 1: I think the Celtics offensively rely way too much on

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Speaker 1: bull rushing the basket with no real plan from Jalen

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Speaker 1: Brown and Jayson Tatum, and then too many step back threes.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're like a well coached offensive team.

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Speaker 1: I think they're a little bit of a break it

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Speaker 1: down and wait until the last second of the shot

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Speaker 1: clock offensive team, whereas the Warriors are poetry in motion.

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Speaker 1: And I think their their ability to do that and

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Speaker 1: the way they are so cohesive and thoughtful as a

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Speaker 1: team in their experience in this situation doesn't make any

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Speaker 1: sense to me. They wouldn't be the favorites, like with

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Speaker 1: everybody believing that they're the favorites, right Like they're the

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Speaker 1: favorites because the public markets are gonna bet the Warriors,

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Speaker 1: and that's what the bookmakers think. I'm not understanding why

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Speaker 1: the people who know better aren't believing what I believe

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Speaker 1: that here's a starting point, um Loeu. Of the teams

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Speaker 1: have caused the Warrior's trouble throughout the years, and you

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Speaker 1: find one common denominator. They switch and pick and rolls,

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Speaker 1: and they switch on off ball screens. Boston Celtics switched

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Speaker 1: the second most of any team in the NBA playoffs

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Speaker 1: and in the NBA regular season. It's always been a

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Speaker 1: counter for them. That's why Houston. You remember that two

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Speaker 1: thousand eighteen series when you're like, why are the Warriors,

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Speaker 1: not like looking like the Warriors. And a lot of

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Speaker 1: it was because if you switch everything, if you can

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Speaker 1: do that, if it takes the personnel, then you're able

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Speaker 1: to take away a lot of it. When stuff is

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Speaker 1: running back screens and his guy slips to the basket,

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Speaker 1: but then both guys are worried about him slipping too

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Speaker 1: the outside for a three. When you mess that up,

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Speaker 1: they put you through these paces where you're having to

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Speaker 1: make on any given possession, every player on the defense

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Speaker 1: has to make ten high i Q decisions of understanding

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Speaker 1: how to navigate that and communicating to do that. There's

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Speaker 1: literally nobody better out at the Boston. It's why Boston

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Speaker 1: has the best record versus Kurs Warriors, I think since

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Speaker 1: two thousand and fifteen, like they've consistently had success against it,

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Speaker 1: and there's no magic here. It's because they switch everything

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Speaker 1: and that slows down a lot of what the Golden

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Speaker 1: State does offensively. When you look at Golden State and

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Speaker 1: who they faced defensively, look, I think there's lots of

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Speaker 1: holes of poke in in Boston right the selt The

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Speaker 1: Bucks should be here they were without Chris Middleton. The

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Speaker 1: Bucks should be here. Shout out Matt Mitchell like they

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Speaker 1: should be here, but they without Chris Chris Middleton, the

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Speaker 1: Heat were banged up all these types of things. However,

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Speaker 1: on the other side, the Warriors face that non existent

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Speaker 1: Denver defense, a Memphis team that was young and mistake prone,

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Speaker 1: and then a Mavericks defense that was good at switching

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Speaker 1: on ball but didn't understand how to guard the back line.

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Speaker 1: Boston guards you at every single level. So when you

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Speaker 1: factor in the impact of a defense at this level

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Speaker 1: and the success that those types of defenses have had

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Speaker 1: on Golden State specifically, you start to take away the splash,

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Speaker 1: you start to take away the bursts, you start to

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Speaker 1: take away all that efficiency, and that drags it down

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Speaker 1: to where Boston, who has found ways to be efficient

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Speaker 1: enough with their perimeter oriented, volume three shooting team. I

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Speaker 1: think that's where you start to get into They can

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Speaker 1: shrink those margins and then they win those margins with

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Speaker 1: the level of i Q and the type of players

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Speaker 1: from Jayson Tatum that they've gotten. That's why I think

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Speaker 1: you can get to Boston being the plan. You know,

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Speaker 1: people are gonna say Golden State didn't really face matchup,

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Speaker 1: that we're that tough, which is pretty true. But remember

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Speaker 1: going to State, you know, dominated around one, you're still up.

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Speaker 1: Well was it three to one in round two? And

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Speaker 1: I noticed, I know John got hurt, but and then

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Speaker 1: they and then they go up three out and take

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Speaker 1: it in five against UM against Dallas. So it's not

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Speaker 1: like Golden State just like stumbled through these playoffs. They

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Speaker 1: handled their business, which the Celtics. I mean, if Jimmy Butler,

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Speaker 1: you know, it hits that shot, or if just a

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Speaker 1: lot of different things go differently, if Jimmy Butler doesn't

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Speaker 1: get bank you know, reaggragate his knee, we might not

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Speaker 1: even be sitting here talking about this. So I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's a question of that the Celtics are the

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Speaker 1: toughest matchup for the Warriors and and vice versa. But

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Speaker 1: it's just that from what we've seen out of the

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Speaker 1: Celtics in these very playoffs, everything has been such a struggle,

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Speaker 1: and they've relied on their defense, I think more so

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Speaker 1: than their offense. And now I think that's just in

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Speaker 1: the question a little more, Um, and it's it's in

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Speaker 1: question a little more on both sides of the ball.

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Speaker 1: It's like it's ten their defense do the same thing

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Speaker 1: about gold State. Yes, they're gonna be able to switch. Um,

401
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,359
Speaker 1: are they gonna be able to play more than seven guys?

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Speaker 1: There's another question. I think it's interesting to talk about

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Speaker 1: because Golden State they might get you know, like guys

404
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 1: number eight, nine and ten back that they could play.

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Speaker 1: You know, maybe you get paid and maybe you get

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Speaker 1: um iggy. You know, maybe you're gonna put you know,

407
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Speaker 1: like they out of Porter. You know they have they

408
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,239
Speaker 1: can go a little bit deeper with throwing bodies at

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Speaker 1: Tatum and Brown. UM. So, I think that's another interesting,

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Speaker 1: fascinated series where it's going, UM, Boston, they're probably they

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Speaker 1: probably want to play a seven man rotation. Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: what's the matchup gonna be like with what's the health

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Speaker 1: status of Williams? Is he even gonna Are they gonna

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Speaker 1: want to keep him in if Golden State goes all? Um?

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Speaker 1: You know? So I think those are those are kind

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Speaker 1: of things that um are just worth talking about. But

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Speaker 1: I think as far as just the matchups don't stay

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Speaker 1: handed at business, well, that's that's that's sort of my point.

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Speaker 1: Raybon And and I feel like there is recency bias

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Speaker 1: working against the Warriors here and that the Celtics have

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Speaker 1: actually not been a great team in the playoffs. They

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Speaker 1: barely beat the Nets in the first game that was

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Speaker 1: a miracle last second game winning shot from Tatum in

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Speaker 1: the game in which they gave up a huge lead

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Speaker 1: in the final minutes and shouldn't have even have put

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Speaker 1: themselves in a position to be in that spot. They

427
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: then go on to win the series and sweep the Nets,

428
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 1: a team that was relatively discombobulated offensively, not cohesive, not

429
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 1: great coaching, but all those games were close. Then they

430
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 1: get by the Bucks because the Bucks don't have Chris Middleton.

431
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 1: Then and they barely beat a team in the Heat

432
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 1: that is terrible offensively and basically has one option in

433
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler. And yet everyone is looking at the Celtics

434
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 1: as this team that can match up well with the

435
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: Warriors without looking at how they actually play in the court.

436
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 1: I just don't think they're equipped to beat a team

437
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 1: like the Warriors that has been in this position so

438
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 1: many more times and has a much higher ceiling offensively

439
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 1: and is much better offensively to me than the Celtics.

440
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 1: Boom My mic wasn't on a stand. I drop it

441
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 1: right now. I mean, I think so you know, to

442
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 1: your point, like I think, I do think the Celtics

443
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 1: match well with the Warriors, just personnel wise, just the

444
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 1: fact that they can go small with Horford and put

445
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 1: White in there, or they could or they could put

446
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 1: Grant Williams there and they could be super switchy, you know,

447
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: switch act. Like personnel wise, the Celtics do match up

448
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 1: great with the Warriors. But I just think we're forgetting

449
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:58,879
Speaker 1: that like this, and the Celtics defense is amazing and

450
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 1: they have the person now so they don't put a

451
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,159
Speaker 1: weak link on the floor and defense, and that's the

452
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 1: difference between them in the wars. The Warriors do, right,

453
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 1: So it's like how better how much better can the

454
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 1: words offense be to carry them? But when we've seen

455
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,640
Speaker 1: the Celtics struggle, it's because the Celtics offense itself, um

456
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 1: is not always firing on all cylinder's and like they'll

457
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 1: build the lead and then it'll just get whittled down,

458
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 1: not because like their defense disappears, it's because you know,

459
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 1: their offense just can't get you know, quality, doesn't get

460
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 1: quality shots and just doesn't hit shots. Now, look at

461
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 1: the Bucks for example, you know without middle too, what

462
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 1: are we really saying about the books. They didn't, you

463
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 1: honest is their best player. He had some clutch threes

464
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,959
Speaker 1: in that series. But like the Bucks, they surround your

465
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 1: honest with shooters, but they're not like amazing shooters. And

466
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: then Miami they had three point shot shooting was their

467
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 1: calling card. But for whatever reason, p J. Tucker just

468
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,640
Speaker 1: forgot where to line up in this series. I'm still

469
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 1: mind boggling how many times I saw PJ. Tucker in

470
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:58,959
Speaker 1: places where he wouldn't shoot the ball to begin with,

471
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 1: Like it just with my mind, um, the best players

472
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:04,680
Speaker 1: on a three point shooter um, and then they were

473
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 1: just cold from three, like Miami was ice cold pretty

474
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 1: much the entire series three. So it's like, my thing

475
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 1: is this, the Celtics are gonna show up on defense.

476
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 1: They're gonna They're probably gonna be quite a few games

477
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,199
Speaker 1: of the Warriors don't hit a hundred, right, The Warriors

478
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 1: are also a great defense and can kind of match

479
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 1: up and they don't have to play Curry and Poor

480
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,120
Speaker 1: at the same time. You know, ever, like they could

481
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 1: just use Pool straight up off the bench and not

482
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 1: ever use those lineups with you know, the death start line.

483
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: If if if they don't feel they that gives them the edge.

484
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 1: But my thing is this, like the war Stephan Clay

485
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 1: aren't forty plus percent three point shooters anymore of their

486
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 1: high thirties. They're still above average, but they're not like

487
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 1: a week at least this season, they haven't been. But

488
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 1: they're still gonna hit more shots to kind of end

489
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 1: runs and break runs and break up. They're not gonna

490
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 1: go on these like nine minute scoring drops that like

491
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 1: we've seen in front of and so the Warriors get down,

492
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,239
Speaker 1: they could come back, and the Celtics, I mean, they

493
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 1: put on a masterclass and blowing leads this whole playoffs.

494
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 1: So it's like I look at the a team like

495
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 1: the Bucks, and it's like they're going down the court,

496
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: You're honest, the ball in his hands every time he's

497
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 1: they gotta come back by two and two and two

498
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: and maybe a and one here, maybe a kick out three,

499
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 1: but they're coming back by twos. Then the heat, it's

500
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:15,679
Speaker 1: just they're coming back by twos too because Jimmy Butler

501
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 1: is really the only player that's showing up for them

502
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: an offensive bam Adi bio every once in a while.

503
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 1: And and so it's like now you're facing the team

504
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 1: that and they will get down because the Celtics are

505
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,680
Speaker 1: great defense and they have a talent talented offensive players

506
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 1: as well. The Celtics will go on some runs, but

507
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:32,879
Speaker 1: going to State can come back and then and then

508
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 1: they have that home court. You know, it's there's just

509
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 1: things that kind of favor the Warriors here that the Celtics,

510
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 1: and to bass point, it's gonna be a shock. Like

511
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 1: I think I think the Warriors are on a good

512
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 1: spot to take game one. I think if you do

513
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: like the Celtics, my advice would be to wait till

514
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 1: after the game want to take make maybe you put

515
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 1: a you put a little bit on it and before

516
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 1: the game one because you're still getting plus money. But

517
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: the Warriors are now twenty one and two, uh and

518
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 1: in game one straight up in the Steve Kerr era,

519
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:05,360
Speaker 1: and now I know, like they're not not the same teams. Um,

520
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: But generally speaking, this this this has just applied regardless

521
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 1: like this year they want they won their game ones,

522
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 1: like it's just this is what they do, um, and

523
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: they have more of the rest. So I think you

524
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 1: you'll get there's a good chance that you'll get a

525
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 1: better number. Um. After Game one on Boston, UM, and

526
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,679
Speaker 1: if you do like them, you're probably banking on them

527
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,919
Speaker 1: to kind of grind it down as a series progresses,

528
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: kind of like the Bucks did last year where the

529
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,639
Speaker 1: Suns came out looking like the favorite. You know, it

530
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 1: took two early and then the Bucks kind of ground

531
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,880
Speaker 1: them down. East Coast Basketball. I think that's what you're

532
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: kind of looking at if you're looking at a Boston

533
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 1: win here. But but I still think the Warriors have

534
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 1: that edges because they can make they can make three

535
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,639
Speaker 1: point shots at a level that the teams that Boston

536
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: was facing before that that they still took seven games

537
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 1: to win, granted banged up as well, just didn't have

538
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 1: you talked about kind of the inconsistency of the Warrior shooters.

539
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:55,360
Speaker 1: This to me gets into a lot of it is

540
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: when the Warriors are hitting, they're hitting everything, and then

541
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 1: when the Warriors are not hitting, it's like, where the

542
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,719
Speaker 1: hell is the offense? Where did the Splash Brothers go?

543
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: And there's a lot has to do with Clay Thompson,

544
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 1: I think, and his injury status and what injuries and

545
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: age rob you of in the NBA. Is not your ceiling.

546
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 1: You can still have those high points. It's consistency game

547
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 1: by game, and so if you're not able to get

548
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 1: yourself back into it. The thing I would say is

549
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 1: when you look at Boston and look, I can't agree

550
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:21,680
Speaker 1: with you. When you're like, look at these these these

551
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 1: guys that Miami's trying now, or look at how badly

552
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 1: they shot and Milwaukee missed a ton of what felt

553
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 1: like open looks. But when I look at the data,

554
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 1: that suggests that gives you an indication. It's not perfect,

555
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 1: but it gives you an indication of the shot quality

556
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: of what these opponents are getting. I was surprised because

557
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 1: I thought it would be man, they are contesting at

558
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: the great level, but these teams are also just missing shots.

559
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 1: It's now what the data says. And when you go

560
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: back and you watch the film, you start to see

561
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 1: that the Celtics put low percentage shooters in high stress

562
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,239
Speaker 1: situations and they really and and a lot of that

563
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 1: is how their defense operates. Look, I do not think

564
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 1: this is gonna be like Boston in five. I do

565
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 1: not think Boston is gonna is gonna roll in this series.

566
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 1: I think that Boston has proven they will find ways

567
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 1: to extend the series, and as it goes on, that

568
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 1: shock factor wears off, they get more used to it

569
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: and it becomes this kind of pressure situation for Golden State.

570
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,719
Speaker 1: And Golden State has shown a little shakiness, Like they

571
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 1: get blown out in Game five versus Memphis. Now they've

572
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: got Game six at home, no worries jaws out. They

573
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: take care of business. But even that one was within

574
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 1: range a little bit. I think the point of the

575
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: war the Warriors beat Denver in five Dallas and five

576
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 1: Memphis and six, like that's an important point. I I

577
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 1: do think that that matters here where it's like Golden

578
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 1: State has not messed around. Boston has definitely fucked around

579
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 1: in these playoffs a lot, even their fans would tell

580
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 1: you that. But I do think that on top of that,

581
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 1: despite that, Boston has still found what they needed to.

582
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 1: But they're facing the team now that they can't do

583
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: that against. But I also think that we wind up

584
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 1: going too far the other way and we go, well,

585
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 1: look at what took to get them to get here,

586
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: and we ignore that there's something integral in how the

587
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 1: Celtics play, where if they had had limited their albums,

588
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 1: they would have advanced in less games two. The NBA

589
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,880
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619
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 1: I feel like we didn't touch on this is a

620
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 1: family on the outside. It's the first time we've had

621
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 1: a healthy Warriors team, no Lebron in the finals. Like

622
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 1: again the Kauai thing. I know, Quiet was her when

623
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 1: they deal with Toronto, but that was a banged up

624
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 1: Warriors team. I just Matt more respect man. You've got

625
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: balls taking Boston this series. Because I'm with these two,

626
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: I just it feels like free money minus one sixty.

627
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 1: I've hit well over fifty books now at that number

628
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: for a grand each, and I probably bet another ten

629
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: books today for another grand. It's like rare opportunity, a

630
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: rare opportunity bet on a Warrior's team. That yeah, a

631
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 1: guy might put his computer and say, hey, look how

632
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: good Boston played the Warriors this regular season, as if

633
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 1: that's even relevant at all to the conversation. So I

634
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 1: do think it is interesting there there are people betting Boston,

635
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 1: where as a pro, all the other pros I talked to,

636
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 1: it feels like Dallas over again. I mean, we had

637
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 1: guys on the show telling us it was gonna go seven,

638
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: it was go six. Chad was laughing at them saying

639
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: it was gonna go five. I said, I thought it

640
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 1: was gonna go four. It just feels like people just

641
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 1: don't respect this Warriors team. So getting back to the

642
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: betting stuff, Rayvon, you've got any good prop bet you're

643
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 1: eyeing up for this this right now, where like you know,

644
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 1: we're talking about a bunch of different players, or any

645
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 1: props you've already bet for this final series. I haven't

646
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 1: made any best yet. Um, I'm gonna kind of do

647
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 1: it game by game. I think one of the more

648
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 1: interesting ones though, is like, you know, and it's obviously

649
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 1: gonna be a you know, a topic of conversation, but

650
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,479
Speaker 1: I think steph step for finals MVP is obviously one

651
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 1: that you can make before the series that you know,

652
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: I think it kindly happens if they do win it.

653
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 1: But as far as yeah, it's it's not you're not

654
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 1: gonna get great value, but I still think, you know,

655
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 1: it's it's better than minus one sixty. You know, it's

656
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: just kind of right. But as far as you know,

657
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna really and and I kind of want,

658
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 1: you know, because I kind of bet props very specifically

659
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 1: game by game, and I love betting props even more

660
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 1: than game one in my games two, three, four five

661
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 1: when you know there's there's data from this recency bias

662
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 1: from before. But I am curious, and Matt, I guess

663
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 1: it's a question for you. Um is like who is

664
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 1: gonna because this is also gonna determine just who has

665
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 1: edge who who do you think it's gonna dictate rotations

666
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 1: in this series? Like is it gonna be Boston going

667
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 1: big with Williams at the five and Horford at the

668
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: four and kind of forcing going State to keep Kavan

669
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 1: Looney on the floor with with Draymond Green or um,

670
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 1: you know it's going to state gonna be able to

671
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 1: dictate and say, hey, now we want to go We

672
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 1: think we could go small and not get burned on

673
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 1: the other side, Um, you know if we throw Jordan

674
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 1: Pool in there in some lineups with Clay and stuff, like,

675
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: how do you think those rotation minute and his Grant

676
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 1: Williams gonna be like a thirty thirty five minute player

677
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 1: again like he was at times in the Milwaukee series,

678
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:31,320
Speaker 1: because he is kind of their best small ball switching

679
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 1: five even probably better than even than Horford, Like, how

680
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:35,879
Speaker 1: do you think these minutes are gonna play? Because that's

681
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,360
Speaker 1: gonna dictate a lot of how I kind of bet props.

682
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 1: It's a lot of times you're just betting on on

683
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:43,399
Speaker 1: playing time at this point. So I'll tell you until

684
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 1: your This kind of backs up the Warriors position. I

685
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 1: do think the Warrior's gonna be able to dictate. And

686
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 1: one of the reasons is when I went back and

687
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 1: watch a lot of the coverage from the last couple

688
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 1: of years and then particularly this season, there's two issues

689
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 1: I think with the Celtics bigs, like a lot of

690
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 1: this is how did he think Al Horford is gonna be? Like,

691
00:34:58,080 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 1: I think Al Horford's gonna be awesome to the point

692
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 1: where we can talk about later. But I bet him

693
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 1: for finals MVP. That's how much I think Orphan is

694
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:08,360
Speaker 1: gonna matter for this series. Um, Robert Williams. They have

695
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 1: to play drop okay, got and picking rolls or off

696
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: ball even right, Williams doesn't want to get burnt going

697
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 1: to the room because that's his job, so he plays off. Well,

698
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 1: you can't do that versus Golden State. Jordan Pool will

699
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: launch behind that screen or d H O Steph Clay,

700
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 1: same thing. Even to a certain degree. Some of the

701
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 1: other guys will take those kind of shots, so that

702
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 1: I think Puts Williams in a real big struggle here. Actually, defensively,

703
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 1: when you start to look at it, Grant Williams has

704
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 1: been way more of a weak point defensively for the

705
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 1: Celtics than you kind of would have thought based off

706
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 1: of how well he shot in that Buck series. So

707
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be playing Grant Williams unders I'm if his points, rebounds,

708
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,359
Speaker 1: assists and play the under on that because I do

709
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 1: not know if he's gonna be playable in this series,

710
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 1: even if they switch everything. I think he's a mechanism

711
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 1: that they will put pressure on, forced the help and

712
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 1: then punish with Robert Williams. I actually you you talked

713
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 1: about like if he's healthy. I think one of the

714
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 1: issues there is even if he's healthy, I'm not sure

715
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 1: how much he can help them. It's gonna have to

716
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 1: be a ton of Horford. It's gonna have to be

717
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna this may be a series where

718
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 1: they keep going smaller and smaller and smaller. The Warriors

719
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,760
Speaker 1: actually tried this is an interesting wrinkle. They tried Porter

720
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 1: auto Porter at five a little bit versus Horford in

721
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,479
Speaker 1: the regular season when they were without Draymond. I thought

722
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 1: that was really interesting and it actually burned the Celtics

723
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,320
Speaker 1: because Porter was able, Like Horford was not going to

724
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 1: stretch out on on Porter and so Porter was getting

725
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: open looks from three. Horford will leave Draymond open and

726
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,319
Speaker 1: be like, have it all day, man, you can choose

727
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 1: as many threes as you want. That battle I think

728
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 1: is gonna be a consistent. One part of it is

729
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 1: Golden stated. You're right that Golden State has more options

730
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 1: of guys they can play, but their options are not

731
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 1: as good as the limited number of guys that bought,

732
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: Like Boston has seven dudes that they're like, we know

733
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 1: we can play these guys. We know these guys can

734
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 1: stay on the floor, and so I think that's gonna

735
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:52,919
Speaker 1: dictate a lot of it. I do think we're gonna

736
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,720
Speaker 1: see Boston having to excise some of these other guys

737
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 1: because you could get away with playing play Peyton Pritchard

738
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 1: in spots, Grant Williams in certain versus the other teams.

739
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 1: I don't know if they can get away with that.

740
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:08,800
Speaker 1: Versus Golden State, Simon very casually dropped in there that

741
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 1: he's bet about a dime on the Warriors at minus

742
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 1: one fifty or one sixty to win the finals. Edie

743
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 1: said about fifty different books. So if I'm calculating correctly,

744
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 1: Simon has basically told us he's got about fifty g

745
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 1: s on the Warriors to win the NBA Finals, and

746
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:33,319
Speaker 1: my reading exact at this exactly. But I'm up from

747
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 1: betting them like that's house money right now because I've

748
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 1: just been betting them every series. I've just again, as

749
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 1: cool as I want to sound, I've just been rolling

750
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 1: over winnings because it's like I took my original steak,

751
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 1: which was like k and every series minus one and

752
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 1: a half the Warriors that just I've just been lucky,

753
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 1: Chaid Chris raybonds like, do you got an assistant for this?

754
00:37:56,239 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 1: Like I got multiple? Okay, okay, are you doing right?

755
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 1: I do want to talk about m v P. It's

756
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 1: a narrative. It's a narrative award right now, Steph to

757
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 1: win m v P. It opened a plus one twenty,

758
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 1: it's down to plus one oh two at FanDuel. You've

759
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 1: got a lot of thoughts in the narrative of m

760
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 1: v P. Explain that to people and tell us why

761
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 1: you're thinking about ault markets beyond Steph Curry for m

762
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 1: v P. Yeah, alright, So here's how it goes. The

763
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 1: voting panel is a lot smaller than you probably think

764
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 1: it is. It's about it's between eight and twelve people.

765
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:35,359
Speaker 1: You're gonna have one representative from the broadcast crew, one

766
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: representative from the studio crew for ABC, um to be

767
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 1: writers from either team, and then a handful of national

768
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 1: reporters and an international representative. So you have to kind

769
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 1: of think about who is playing this I do think

770
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 1: that there is a certain degree to which those voters

771
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 1: in particular kind of fight traditional narratives. These are not

772
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 1: like just very basic TV people. These are folks that

773
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 1: follow the league and the impact on the series, I

774
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 1: think carries a lot. I think that that there's so

775
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 1: much talk of like, well, Steph doesn't have one, He's

776
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 1: got to get one. They're gonna want to give it

777
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:08,959
Speaker 1: to him, the voters that I know that have gotten

778
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 1: these votes in the past. That's not how they're gonna operate.

779
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 1: If Steph has the best, if he has a monster series,

780
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 1: if he's averaging thirty five, then yeah, steps Curry's gonna

781
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 1: win it. There's a lot of reasons to think that's

782
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 1: not gonna happen, given his history versus the Boston Celtics

783
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,320
Speaker 1: and how Marcus Smart has defended him. Nine of twenty seven,

784
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: by the way, is Steph Curry with Marcus Smart contesting

785
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 1: over the last five years. So for me, I look

786
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 1: at it and go, who is a player that they're

787
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:35,720
Speaker 1: gonna look at and go, you know who really shaped

788
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 1: that series? You know who is really great? You know

789
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 1: what really decided and if the Boston Celtics win, I

790
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 1: think al Horford is gonna get a lot of that.

791
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 1: He's a consummate professional. He has brought at every game.

792
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: If you say, like, how is he gonna get to

793
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 1: the production well versus the Bucks, he had like a

794
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:52,359
Speaker 1: thirty point performance and another twenty five point performance, He'll

795
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 1: have opportunities. The Warriors are not going to cover him

796
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 1: the way that they will Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

797
00:39:57,080 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 1: So I think there's opportunities there. And for the Warriors,

798
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,839
Speaker 1: I think you do have this chance of if they're

799
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 1: gonna focus everything on steps and I think that they're

800
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 1: going to I think you're looking at Clay Thompson Jordan's

801
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:11,919
Speaker 1: pool and and it's a little bit. I think Andrew

802
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 1: Wiggins is gonna have a lot of opportunities in this series.

803
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,320
Speaker 1: And if you want to say, like this is crazy

804
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 1: Andrew Wiggins over Steph Curry, we would have said the

805
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: same thing about andre Igodala over Steph Curry. Back into

806
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 1: that fifteen. There's a reason Steph has not one of

807
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 1: finals m v P, all these chances, hasn't won one.

808
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 1: And some of that was Katie, I'll give you, But

809
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 1: a lot of this is that teams know that they're

810
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 1: gonna shut down one thing. If they're gonna focus on

811
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 1: one thing, the one thing is gonna be keeping Steph

812
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 1: Curry off the three point line. How So to that point,

813
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 1: you know, because I know, obviously Markus Smart defensive Player

814
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 1: of the Year, Um, how often does he match up

815
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: with Curry? How often? Like what percentage of Curry's attempts

816
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:56,839
Speaker 1: or possessions? I guess is he gonna end up being

817
00:40:56,880 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 1: a defender because we know Boston's also probably going to

818
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:05,360
Speaker 1: switch a ton and but we also know that Golden

819
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 1: State knows that and is going to then try to

820
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 1: manipulate matchups. You know, like Curry acting. Curry will have

821
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 1: the ball in his hands UM at times as well.

822
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 1: You know it won't will be off ball, It'll be

823
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:18,319
Speaker 1: a lot. You know, they'll mix it up. But like

824
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 1: what what percentage of possessions this Marcus Smart end up

825
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 1: on Steph Curry when it matters. So I think when

826
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 1: you look at this from a finals MVP perspective, you're

827
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 1: basically trying to like forecast what coaching decisions are going

828
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: to be. In the regular season, they switched off of

829
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 1: him a lot of the time. I don't think they're

830
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 1: gonna do that. I think Smart it's gonna fight through

831
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 1: the screen. I think they're gonna say, we're gonna let

832
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 1: you get Marcus off off of stuff. We're not gonna

833
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 1: give you that. I'm not gonna let you get Jalen

834
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 1: Brown on them. We're not gonna let you get Derek

835
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: White on him. We're gonna keep Marcus Smart. He's gonna

836
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:48,280
Speaker 1: fight over screens. He's gonna burst around all these things.

837
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 1: They'll scram the switch, which is they switch it and

838
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 1: then switch it back. They'll do all of that. I

839
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 1: think to keep Smart on Curry as long as possible,

840
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 1: you have the defensive player of the year, Why else

841
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 1: have the defensive player of the year on the perimeter

842
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 1: then a guard, specifically Steph Curry in the NBA Finals,

843
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 1: That's my prediction. Now if they go, if we see

844
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 1: Game one and they're just like, no, we'll let him

845
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 1: switch on to whoever we trust the other guys, then

846
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 1: I think Steph Curry is a slam spot for M

847
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 1: v P because I don't think anybody else can shut

848
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 1: Step down the way that Marcus Markin one of my

849
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 1: favorite bets that I've made again, I'm in on the Warriors.

850
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 1: We know this. I'm probably in on the Steph Curry

851
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 1: MVP because I do think if the Warriors do win,

852
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:29,720
Speaker 1: he's going to have to have the kind of NBA

853
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 1: Finals that he hasn't had before. But I think you're

854
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 1: already getting too. You're not getting a great price on

855
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 1: Steph Curry's MVP, which you could bet if you like

856
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 1: the Warriors to win the finals, because it's just a

857
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:44,359
Speaker 1: better number than minus one sixty Steph Curry plus four

858
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:49,840
Speaker 1: thirty at FanDuel to lead the series in points in threes.

859
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 1: That's what I'm going that. That to me is my

860
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 1: favorite sort of exotic Matt Moore, let's talk about game

861
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:01,759
Speaker 1: one real quickly. Who do you have in game one?

862
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 1: What will you do after the game one outcome regardless

863
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:10,480
Speaker 1: of who wins. So I've got Warriors, I've got Warriors

864
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 1: first half and I've got the over first half. I

865
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 1: think both these teams are gonna look at the switching

866
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 1: defenses and go, we're gonna get into our sets before

867
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 1: they get set. I think they're gonna push pace. That's

868
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:22,760
Speaker 1: what Boston did. If you noticed in Game seven versus Miami,

869
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 1: they had all that trouble in that Miami series, they

870
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 1: push pace Golden State, they will run off of makes

871
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 1: like they want to get you out of position. So

872
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:32,320
Speaker 1: I'll like the over in the first half and the

873
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:35,839
Speaker 1: Warriors first half. I don't want to lay. I don't

874
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,280
Speaker 1: want to lay the points on the full game because

875
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:40,800
Speaker 1: I do think there's a chance to Boston just somehow

876
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:42,839
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. Is in this if you're gonna

877
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 1: play full game. I like everybody, even though like Brandan Anderson,

878
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 1: Joe Dhlra are guys over buckets, they're on the Celtics

879
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:53,720
Speaker 1: in the series, they're all on Warriors. Game one teams

880
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:56,840
Speaker 1: coming off Game seven is is a historical trend teams

881
00:43:57,160 --> 00:44:00,080
Speaker 1: uh going into Golden State. As Chris mentioned in game on,

882
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 1: that's a trend like Game one is one that everyone

883
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:07,120
Speaker 1: has circled as a slam spot for Golden State, regardless

884
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,359
Speaker 1: of how you need the series goes. After Game one,

885
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna add on Celtics if they lose like

886
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 1: they expect, if Warriors lose, I think there's value on

887
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:16,719
Speaker 1: Golden State and I will probably start coming back on

888
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 1: that and start building positions on both ends because that's

889
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:23,000
Speaker 1: how I bet um. But with where it is after

890
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 1: Game one. I already bet Celtics minus one and half

891
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 1: at plus two hundred, so I'm set for Celtics and

892
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 1: six essentially at plus two hundred. Uh. From that position,

893
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:35,280
Speaker 1: I'm not going to add after Game one to Boston

894
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:37,839
Speaker 1: because I want to see how Game one plays out.

895
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,399
Speaker 1: With the dynamics of it, I don't think I'll get

896
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:43,280
Speaker 1: shook enough after Game one to get off of Boston entirely.

897
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:46,760
Speaker 1: But look, I this Warrior's team is one that I respect.

898
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 1: I bet them in preseason. They were my preseason Picket

899
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,879
Speaker 1: Action Network for the best bet on the board for

900
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,439
Speaker 1: the title, and I do think that there's a chance.

901
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 1: I just think the series goes long, so I think

902
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:58,319
Speaker 1: there'll be opportunities of the series goes on for you

903
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 1: to find value on both sides, depending on what you're

904
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 1: looking for. Yeah, I like the Warriors in Game one

905
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:08,799
Speaker 1: as well. Obviously, you know, I give him a slight

906
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 1: edge in the series, so it makes sense um Game

907
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 1: one at home. But I just think, you know, it's

908
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 1: like you know, we talked about it, it's gonna be

909
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:18,359
Speaker 1: a little bit of a shock to the Celtic system.

910
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 1: I don't think the rest is gonna be a major

911
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 1: as much of a major factor because you're still getting

912
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 1: three days now. Granted you are going on the road,

913
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 1: you're going across country again, but he's still get into

914
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 1: three days, which is something they haven't had in forever.

915
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 1: So um, granted, gold States getting a little more time,

916
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 1: but you look at I already mentioned Golden State in

917
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 1: game ones in the postseason with Steve Kerr twenty one

918
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 1: and two straight up nine percent as a single digit

919
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 1: favorite against the spread in game ones uh nine and

920
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 1: three with Kurse seventy five percent against the spread. You

921
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 1: look at game one home favorites that that they have

922
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,959
Speaker 1: three or more days of rest, uh, and the line

923
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 1: hasn't moved against them, which it hasn't for Golden State

924
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:05,840
Speaker 1: uh since two thousand and five eighty four and fifty

925
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:11,399
Speaker 1: one against the spread six six and three in this postseason.

926
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 1: So a lot of things just kind of favorite Golden

927
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 1: State from that whatever you want to call it, trend,

928
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 1: human nature, kind of spot perspective, um. And I think

929
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 1: I just didn't Golden State matches as well. So my

930
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 1: biggest bet would just probably be on Golden State money line,

931
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 1: and then I'll have, um, you know, kind of the

932
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 1: same thing on the spread. But the thing I feel

933
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 1: most confident about is gold State winning this game. Um,

934
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 1: if they win the game, they're gonna cover to spread

935
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:35,879
Speaker 1: more often than not. At at three and a half,

936
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,439
Speaker 1: it was interesting just opened up the Action Network app

937
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 1: of the money of the tickets on Golden State. So

938
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:45,760
Speaker 1: I'm on it too. I direct the coold I buy,

939
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:47,879
Speaker 1: I bought the juice. I just bought the money line

940
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 1: and said besting with the points. Um, just in case

941
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: Boston keeps it close, I'm gonna drink the juice and

942
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:57,120
Speaker 1: just you know, take that minus. It might be up

943
00:46:57,120 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 1: to minus one seventy now at certain books, but it's

944
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:02,359
Speaker 1: worth it. It's like we talk all the time, Chad,

945
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 1: it's a little nerve racking with these spreads when it

946
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 1: comes down to these foul shots into the game. And

947
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 1: the greatest example is last week with that Jimmy Jimmy Butler.

948
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 1: I mean he literally hit the front rim with that

949
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 1: three pointers. So it's like a lot of times that

950
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 1: spread comes down to that. When I have a lot

951
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 1: of money, I don't want to be worried about that.

952
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,400
Speaker 1: So yeah, for me, I did gold State, but I

953
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,600
Speaker 1: did the money line. To Simon's point, like Chad, you

954
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:26,840
Speaker 1: asked me at the top, like, you know what, what

955
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 1: has been one of the keys to my heater And

956
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 1: it has been kind of just taken taking what the

957
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 1: market gives you in terms of sometimes just taking those

958
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:37,760
Speaker 1: favorites on the money line, um, and not really worried

959
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 1: about the spread. Now. I know it came into play

960
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 1: in one game against Golden State in Memphis earlier, but UM,

961
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 1: I do think that's especially if you're you're putting a

962
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 1: lot large amounts on it anyway, you know, it's not

963
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 1: just you know, five ten, a hundred bucks, like you

964
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 1: you're gonna you know, you're gonna be fine betting on

965
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:55,760
Speaker 1: the money line and you're gonna get a good return

966
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:58,280
Speaker 1: on it. But um, to Simon's point when he mentioned

967
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 1: of the tickets, eighty five percent of the money on

968
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:06,399
Speaker 1: the Warriors, So this is a great postseason NBA betting tip,

969
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 1: Um that it's it's kind of been astounding how how

970
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:12,440
Speaker 1: money it's been. But when there's at least three percent

971
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:15,759
Speaker 1: more money than tickets, so like in this case it's

972
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 1: four percent, there's eighty five percent money. When that difference

973
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 1: is at least three percent, UH on the favorite UH

974
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 1: in in every game but Game seven in the postseason

975
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 1: since two thousand five, thirty seven sixty six and one

976
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:35,879
Speaker 1: against the spread, that sixty seven percent cover. Right this postseason,

977
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,360
Speaker 1: it's happened forty two times where the favorite has been

978
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:40,799
Speaker 1: getting at least three percent more of the money than

979
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:43,360
Speaker 1: the tickets. It's happened forty two times, uh and the

980
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 1: favorite has covered in twenty eight of them there and

981
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 1: fourteen sixty seven percent, So both this season and historically

982
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: over the last decade and a half, uh sixty seven

983
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:56,799
Speaker 1: percent rate. If that closes with the favorite getting at

984
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:59,080
Speaker 1: least three percent more money. So that's something to kind

985
00:48:59,080 --> 00:49:01,439
Speaker 1: of monitor for anyone out there that has the Action

986
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 1: Network gap. It doesn't change the way they play on

987
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:05,839
Speaker 1: the court. It's just it's one of those market indicators

988
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 1: that if you you're kind of into that stuff. It's

989
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:10,560
Speaker 1: been a very good indicator that because I don't usually

990
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: bet favorite, so things like things like this are kind

991
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 1: of like astounding to me coming from the NFL. You're

992
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:18,000
Speaker 1: almost usually fading the favorites and going with the dogs. Sigmon. Obviously,

993
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 1: you know we talk about this every week on Sunday UM,

994
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:22,879
Speaker 1: but in n b A, you can feel a little

995
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 1: more confident betting favorites. And one of the best times

996
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 1: have been NBA favorites is in the postseason, when the

997
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:34,360
Speaker 1: money's um on your side. That is a great stat

998
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 1: I also like Matt Moore's idea of betting the Warriors. Uh,

999
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:40,360
Speaker 1: they're minus one and a half in the first half

1000
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 1: right now. I like that because free throws don't come

1001
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 1: into play at the end of the first half. I

1002
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 1: also like it because it's likely the only part of

1003
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:50,279
Speaker 1: the game that I'll be able to stay up for.

1004
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 1: Come to the West Coast, chat, I should come to

1005
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 1: the West Coast the other night. The other night to

1006
00:49:56,480 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 1: watch Game seven. Uh. I got home, I would out

1007
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:03,440
Speaker 1: for a little while, you know, Sunday barbecue with friends.

1008
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 1: My kid was out, he was seeing top Gun Maverick.

1009
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:09,439
Speaker 1: We got back home in time for the game. Of course,

1010
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 1: the game starts eight. I am asleep by nine o'clock.

1011
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 1: At ten thirty, my kid is waking me up. He's like, dude,

1012
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:20,439
Speaker 1: time to get up from your power n app. It's

1013
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 1: the last quarter game seven games getting close. You got

1014
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:26,840
Speaker 1: a rally, He's right, I had a rally, and I'm hopeful.

1015
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 1: The greatest thing I saw was that Game two was

1016
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:33,279
Speaker 1: starting at eight o'clock East Coast time because it's done

1017
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:37,080
Speaker 1: a Sunday. This made me so happy knowing I can

1018
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:39,359
Speaker 1: be able to watch most of the game all right.

1019
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 1: Matt Moore birthday boy, Matt Moore, heater, Chris Raybon, BFF,

1020
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, producer Matt Mitchell. This has been the favorite

1021
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:54,359
Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume podcast Network. Getting ready for the

1022
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 1: NBA Finals between the Warriors and the Celtics. A lot

1023
00:50:57,000 --> 00:51:00,920
Speaker 1: of opinions, a lot of information to unpack. Go get it.

1024
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 1: Download the Action Network, Apple, listen to buckets, rate review,

1025
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:08,759
Speaker 1: Subscribe the podcast from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you

1026
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Until next time, I Love you,