00:00:02 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. 00:00:05 Speaker 2: Radio. 00:00:06 Speaker 3: News. 00:00:12 Speaker 4: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. 00:00:27 Speaker 3: Kim Harvey is stick professor at the Fuca School. of business, Duke University, all sorts of abilities. I love how he was at Chicago, and he did what the brave do. He went over to the Stockholm School of Economics, which is a whole different twisted view to get perspective. He's also an advisor to Duke football as well, 4-0. Paul Sweeney of Duke with Professor Harvey. Cam, thanks so much for joining us here today. A lot of folks, Cam, on Global Wall Street, they've never seen interest rates at these levels before, and I'm sure none of your students have either here. 00:01:05 Speaker 5: Frame out what this interest rate environment, what does that mean for this economy? What does that mean for these markets? 00:01:12 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that people are generally misinterpreting what's going on. So number one, the rate, the yield on the 10-year is statistically the highest we've seen in 25 years. But you need to keep the context in mind that during the past 25 years, we've had these extraordinary events like the global financial crisis and COVID that drove the rate down to unusually low levels. And where we are right now is about average if you look at a longer history. And you're correct that many people have not seen rates this high, but you need to have a historical perspective that the rate that we're seeing today is not abnormal. What was abnormal was when the rate was 1%, people getting mortgages at 2% or 3%. That's abnormal. So where we are today is historically where we've been many times. And I also think that the causes of the increases in the rate are really misunderstood. 00:02:21 Speaker 7: All right, so I feel a little bit better about sitting with my 6% mortgage here. 00:02:25 Speaker 5: Cam, the Fed. 00:02:26 Speaker 7: Continues to talk about this 2% inflation rate. 00:02:30 Speaker 5: I'm wondering if that's the right bogey these days. 00:02:32 Speaker 7: Is inflation in this economy maybe structurally higher than maybe it used to be? 00:02:38 Speaker 3: Well, you say this economy? 00:02:40 Speaker 6: Yes. What about the past economy? 00:02:42 Speaker 7: Okay. 00:02:42 Speaker 5: So you just need to. 00:02:43 Speaker 6: Look at the Fed's announcement of the 2% target and then look at the average inflation rate. So the Fed doesn't do a very good job of the 2%. And 2% is an arbitrary number anyways. So the best way to think about expected inflation is to look at the TIPS market. So you look at the difference between a nominal 10-year yield and the real yield, you get expected inflation or breakeven inflation. So that breakeven rate today is about 2.36%. 00:03:22 Speaker 3: Yesterday. 00:03:23 Speaker 6: So that means that people don't believe the 2% target. And this is really important, that the increase in rates that we're experiencing is not due to expected inflation. I know it's kind of non-intuitive to people paying over $ 6 for diesel. But the expected inflation, the break-even inflation, has not moved over the past year. So even since the invasion or the bombing of Iran, the break-even inflation has not moved. 00:04:00 Speaker 3: Professor, I want to get this in two thoughts, and one is a victory lap for you and Rob or not. But first, if I look at the cacophony on the Bloomberg screen, If I look at linkages, say, a French debt with Japanese interest rates, these are things that's hard for our listeners, our viewers to grasp. Is the easy solution to just look at inflation-adjusted real yields? And what do you think about the glide path up to new, higher American real yields? 00:04:32 Speaker 6: Yeah, so this is exactly the right question to ask. So thank you for asking it. So the rate has gone up, and it's not because of an increase in expected inflation. So that's very, very clear, even though people talk about it all the time. It's not due to an increase in the riskiness of U.S. government debt. Because if the U.S. 00:05:01 Speaker 5: Ever defaulted, it would. 00:05:03 Speaker 6: Be through printing money to pay the coupons and interest, and that would be reflected in in expected inflation. And I've already mentioned expected inflation is identical as to where it was a year ago. So it's also the case if you look at the spread between, let's say, corporate debt and treasury debt, that hasn't moved either. So the key thing that's moved in the economy, whether it is a corporate bond or the government bond, is the expected real interest rate. And this goes all the way back to my dissertation at the University of Chicago that shows there is a positive relation between expected real growth. And the expected Brill rate. The reason that rates are going up is because of higher expected real economic growth. It's that simple. 00:05:59 Speaker 3: He was in class with Frank Knight in 1921. I mean, you know that's the way it is. Okay, I've got to do a victory lap here, folks. And Matt Brill, thank you so much for waiting. Kim Harvey, folks, is my essay of the year. This year, the essay is a research report. Rob Arnott, Christopher Brightman, Campbell R. Harvey, and Omid Shakaria. It is an absolute must-read in March on fundamental growth. Cam Harvey, quickly, because I've got to get to Matt Brill. We are taught that cheap is value and expensive is growth. Wrong explanation point. Why is your essay with Rob my essay of the year? 00:06:44 Speaker 6: Yeah, so people misunderstand value and growth investing. So often the growth stocks are anti-value. So if you're expensive, you're growth. And what we do is just focus on growth. Think about sales growth. Think about R & D growth. So why not look at growth when you're investing in growth? Indeed, if you think of the major indices like the Russell 1000 value, Russell 1000 growth, you put those together equally, you get the market portfolio, the Russell 1000. So what's not in value is in growth. And it's not just Russell, but the other index providers also. So we made the case, if you're a value and growth investor, why would you invest in expensive low growth stocks? That makes no sense. 00:07:38 Speaker 3: We've got to leave it there. 00:07:39 Speaker 6: If you're buying the market, you're buying expensive low growth. So it's a different way. 00:07:46 Speaker 3: Paul and I want to get you back on here before the end of the year, Cam Harvey, to talk about this extraordinary research. Basically, he says growthiness wins. Lots to talk about there. Cam Harvey at Duke. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 00:08:11 Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. 00:08:17 Speaker 1: Eastern. 00:08:17 Speaker 4: Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 00:08:21 Speaker 1: Or watch us live on YouTube. 00:08:23 Speaker 3: Kate Luff walked in. She said, Tom, what's the 30-year bond? Because everybody's looking at it. 5.66%. Kate Luff driving all her retail banking. It's Citigroup. I love her notes. They're like bullet points. central right now. I got to go. I got eight ways to go here on retail banking, but everybody's trying to get an edge and you're doing it with something called city premium boost. Is that like a Christmas card, a Christmas club account on steroids? 00:08:53 Speaker 8: No, I would say it's relationship banking actually in action. So when you think about city premium boost, we're actually rewarding clients for some of the banking behavior they do today. On top of all the things we give in relationship tiers, like advisors or relationship managers, lifestyle. But I talk about relationship banking because it's super important. It's just not transactional yield chasing. It's really valuing clients who are deepening their relationship with us. 00:09:21 Speaker 3: What's your distinction versus the 14 other flavors out there? Yeah. 00:09:26 Speaker 8: So it's both value and rate, as well as actually relationships. And simplicity. Again, we start with the client. We have about $ 3 trillion off of us in my business alone and wallet. And we know clients are, when you look at our Citi Gold, Citi Premium Boost, if you do $ 5, 000 in direct deposit or $ 25, 000 in investments, you have an always-on savings rate. You don't have to go to the high-yield competitors anymore. You don't have to go to a sweep into money market funds. It's simplicity of being able to consolidate your relationships. And we know our clients are doing this behavior anyway. They're just doing it not always with us. 00:10:00 Speaker 7: Right Citi just opened a bank a branch right across the street from Bloomberg HQ here on Lexington Avenue. Why talk to us about the, the value of a branch in a world of digital this and digital that, and everything's on my phone. 00:10:14 Speaker 8: Yeah, there's two parts. So one of the 59th and Lex branch is beautiful. We have a new branch manager, Kevin, you should meet him. But really it's people still need advice for those higher level transactions. That's why you see our clients are about two times more affluent than the market itself. They're seeking advice. So we still need physical locations. And what we're doing is we know foot traffic has dropped in banks more broadly. We're actually using that for outreach. We're using AI to help arm our advisors and our bankers of what do clients need. 00:10:52 Speaker 3: The charge card derby. I mean, do we need to get steeled for a fancy charge card being $ 1, 000? annual fee. I know you're below that with American airlines, but I mean, Paul, the fees are nuts. 00:11:06 Speaker 5: It's all over this stuff. She's got a million cards in premium. 00:11:10 Speaker 3: This premium to people like, like bread, Brian Kelly was in the points guy. He has 27 charge cards in his wallet. Is that good, man? 00:11:19 Speaker 8: I would say if you take a step back, you're right. City does not have that level of fees, but even if you look in my world, Clients are looking for more transparency and less gotcha, less friction. In retail banking especially, cards has always evolved this way, right? There's different value. But in retail banking, the industry has competed off friction. What we're actually transitioning to is competing off value, especially as AI and searching and the transparency and data around the market is so much more achievable for any client to understand. you have to actually compete off value. So I think the fees, especially in retail banking, are a term of the past. 00:11:59 Speaker 7: What are younger demos doing? How are they banking these days? 00:12:04 Speaker 8: Yeah, so same thing. Actually, what surprises me the most when we did research, about 73% of Gen Z clients still want to branch because they still need some of that safety net of, I don't know everything I don't know yet, right? They don't know what questions to ask. Even if they have an AI tool to help them, they still need to know what questions to ask. 00:12:23 Speaker 3: I have to ask this. Yesterday for your Tepper School at Carnegie Mellon was an extraordinary day. Our Lisa O'Brien was in conversation with a gentleman from Citadel of a ginormous amount of money to make the food better at Tepper. Alan Meltzer once took me to the student union to improve the food. As someone, an alumni of Carnegie Mellon University, what's it like having $ 3 billion thrown at your institution? 00:12:53 Speaker 8: It's a proud day for all of us. Tepper and CMU is an extraordinary institution. 00:13:00 Speaker 5: I'm glad. 00:13:01 Speaker 8: There are a lot of smart people there that are doing great things, and this investment just helps drive that further. So a proud day for all alumnus of Carnegie Mellon yesterday. 00:13:10 Speaker 3: Somehow I can think there's going to be a Citibank branch. 00:13:14 Speaker 7: So the CMU fighting women. 00:13:17 Speaker 5: What do you do that? 00:13:18 Speaker 3: Yes. 00:13:18 Speaker 5: What are the, what's the mascot of this? 00:13:20 Speaker 8: We're the, uh, fighting tartans. 00:13:22 Speaker 3: Tartans. Oh, the tartans. I watched a football game once up on the field. It's a small thing called buggy where you take someone like Kate left and you throw her down a hillside in a little engineered tube thing and you're sure she's going to die. 00:13:39 Speaker 5: That's what they do out there. 00:13:40 Speaker 3: That's the way they roll in Pittsburgh. Kate Luff, thank you so much. She's with Citigroup driving all of their retail effort. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 00:14:01 Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. 00:14:07 Speaker 1: Eastern. 00:14:08 Speaker 4: Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 00:14:12 Speaker 1: Or watch us live on YouTube. 00:14:14 Speaker 3: Okay, so I usually look at the incredible statistics of the Bloomberg folks. And I got one year. I didn't know we could do these decimals, Paul. 00:14:22 Speaker 5: Oh, yeah? 00:14:22 Speaker 3: One year up 1,059%. Five year, 85%. I think it's per year. The Sharpe ratio, I'd never seen that Sharpe ratio. Joining us now with an original excellence, John Kartzonis. He's with Breakwave Partners here on shipping. Eric Belchunas says you have the number one performing ETF on shipping. I look at to the moon, which is what shipping has done, and your returns are extraordinary. In the last 90 days, up 441% on your shipping ETF. Doesn't it just at some point reverse and can I respectfully say crash? 00:15:02 Speaker 9: That's an excellent question. I think that, yes, probably it will at some point. I'm not sure if it's going to be a crash, but freight rates have to adjust because at the end of the day, who is paying that is the consumer, right? You're paying about 30 bucks a barrel to move the oil from the Middle East to wherever it's going. If you go back a year ago, it was like probably two bucks. This is not sustainable by any means. 00:15:29 Speaker 3: How do you hedge shipping rates? 00:15:32 Speaker 9: Well, these are the freight futures that our ETFs hold, right? I mean, like other futures that you have, oil futures, you have like interest rate futures, stock futures. You can hedge this probably not as a consumer, but for industrial players. The question here is like when, it's not if. And I think the when has been... around this crisis for a while now. Could be six months, could be next month, could be a year, nobody knows. But what is driving that is significant inefficiencies. 00:16:03 Speaker 5: Around the world. 00:16:04 Speaker 7: We had an energy analyst sitting in that seat yesterday morning, Paul Sankey, saying the only reason oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz is because the U.S. 00:16:11 Speaker 5: Navy is there kind of making sure that happens. But How long can the U.S. Navy stay in the Strait of Hormuz? How long do we want to spend the money to do that? If the Navy were to pull out, that Strait would be closed tomorrow, wouldn't it? 00:16:24 Speaker 3: Probably will. 00:16:24 Speaker 9: I mean, the costs are significant, right? And that's why ship owners are getting paid this amount of money to go through the Strait of Hormuz. Whether that's insurance, that's like the extra risk that you're taking. You have seafarers on board, right? explosions left and right, this is not an easy thing to do. But yeah, the costs are significant. And at the end of the day, it's the consumer who's paying this cost because it's the delivered price of the barrel that matters. 00:16:49 Speaker 7: And it's not just the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, there's hot spots all around the world. I mean, just talk to us about, are we in a new world of shipping costs and inflation associated with that? Because I'm not, again, I'm not sure the Strait of Hormuz ever goes back. I don't know what's going on with the Houthis in the Red Sea. 00:17:08 Speaker 5: I don't know where that goes. You know, where do we go here? The Suez Canal, the Panama Canal, there's trouble all over the place. 00:17:16 Speaker 9: I think, you know, this is definitely unprecedented. And that's, I'm not saying that lightly. If you go back decades, even centuries, when you look, when you never had disruptions in happening at the same time in the most important waterways in the world, right? You have the Red Sea, you have the Arabian Sea, you have the Black Sea, right? You know, the heating vessels all over the world. So we're definitely in a new paradigm. And I think, like, you know, whether that continues, I don't know. But the inflation is not showing up in the price of oil. It's showing up in the price of refined goods. 00:17:48 Speaker 5: That's what matters. 00:17:49 Speaker 9: And this includes the price of freight and includes what they call the crack spread, right, the profit that the funders make. But it's the end user price that matters. Diesel, gasoline is not the price of oil. 00:18:01 Speaker 3: John, within your set of large cash position and your set of futures, you have TD3C forward freight agreement. I guess 270,000 megatons, whatever, Middle East Gulf to China, Rastanur to Ningbao. Describe what that future contract actually protects or guesses. 00:18:23 Speaker 9: Well, this corresponds to the expected price of freight, how much you have to pay to move oil from the Middle East to China, right? It's a futures contract. And that historically has been a way for, let's say, a refiner to hedge their transportation costs. This has exploded because right now to cross the Strait of Hormuz, you have to pay tens of millions of dollars. And that's why you have basically the performance you had in freight. 00:18:50 Speaker 7: If I'm an insurance company, am I insuring a tanker going through the Strait of Hormuz? Are these guys insured going through there or are they just kind of winging it? 00:19:00 Speaker 5: Good question. 00:19:01 Speaker 9: I mean, at the end of the day, insurance is, you know, in these types of risk is the whole value of the cargo, right? It's not like our car insurance. It's totally different here. Maybe some, maybe not all of them. It's a very, very gray area right now what's happening there. 00:19:20 Speaker 3: Take your world over to our listeners and viewers. For example, real worry in Europe about how we're going. 00:19:28 Speaker 5: To heat this winter. 00:19:31 Speaker 3: Or I can go to your Simon School at the University of Rochester, where in 1934 it was 22 degrees below zero. How does this pull into us if we have a difficult winter like last winter? 00:19:44 Speaker 9: Yeah, I think like diesel is the biggest worry here, right? 00:19:47 Speaker 5: I mean, that's what matters in this instance. 00:19:52 Speaker 9: The issue, again, goes back to the infrastructure refining. Shipping, I mean, yeah, you pay a price, but probably there are enough ships to move oil. But on the refining side, you had a lot of infrastructure destruction happening, both in the Middle East, as were obviously in the Russian refinery system. So this is not something that's going to be solved overnight. even if you release oil inventories, even if you have, obviously, now the transit of crude oil from the Hormuz is kind of approaching pre-war levels. But at the end of the day, it's the refined product that matters, and that's SCARE. 00:20:27 Speaker 3: Thank you so much for coming in. I really appreciate Eric Balchunas talking this up. John Kartzonis is Breakwave Partners, and look for their incredible ETF, BWET, Boy Walter Edward Tom. BWET, that's done better than good, to say the least. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 00:21:01 Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. 00:21:06 Speaker 1: Eastern. 00:21:07 Speaker 4: Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. 00:21:13 Speaker 3: Indeed, our honor, Jack Devine with us, of course, with all of his service to the nation with the Central Intelligence Agency. Can't say enough about his work. Katie Greifeld, I have to blame. Okay. She's out, you know, with New Offspring, and she called me up and said, Tom, you have to watch The Americans. 00:21:31 Speaker 7: Awesome. 00:21:32 Speaker 3: Which is this whole Soviet, you know, CIA kind of FBI thing. Here's the real world. Dmitry Polyakov, Adolf Tolkachev, Valery Martinov, and Sergei Motorin all killed off of Aldrich Ames. Jack Devine, you worked with Aldrich Ames before... his defection, I guess, to the Russians as well. Are those risks still apparent today? It's theater for us now. It wasn't theater for you. 00:22:03 Speaker 2: It's inherent in the business, Tom. In fact, there was a case that the Justice Department just released about a group of Russians operating in the United States with plans towards disrupting activities in the United States and possible assassination. It's pretty old World War II fashion activities. But in the case of Rick Ames, there's so many in history, the Cambridge Five that betrayed people. 00:22:29 Speaker 1: In Ames' case, he. 00:22:31 Speaker 2: Was disaffected, and what he did is he walked into the Russian embassy. He thought he could handle them. He thought he could give them a little bit. The second time he walked out, he gave up those names, 11 of them. They were all killed. So that risk is inherent in the spy business, and that's why I think all of us in it spend a lot of time trying to protect those people. But the best way to catch a spy is to have a spy inside the system. So that's part of our. 00:23:00 Speaker 7: How do you change the spy business? Because it seems like it just makes everybody potentially smarter, more capable, but that can also go on to the bad guys as well. 00:23:12 Speaker 5: How is the CIA thinking about that? 00:23:14 Speaker 2: It's between a sensuous dream and a nightmare. 00:23:18 Speaker 8: Yep. 00:23:19 Speaker 2: What you have is the incredible concentration of information. 00:23:23 Speaker 3: Unbelievable. 00:23:23 Speaker 2: I remember the first time I walked into the agency and they gave us a tour. They took us down to the records room, a football field of index cards. And then they took us to a room with all the files. And they were all labeled in different colors. And their job was to integrate it. But when you got into the system, you found that it was highly stovepipe. So what we're looking at, there are two big threats that I think we need to concentrate. One is how centralized are we going to make this work? powerful tool in the intelligence business. And the Chinese are going for concentration. 00:23:53 Speaker 5: The U.S. 00:23:54 Speaker 2: 's normal tendency in the intelligence world is to break it down, compartment it. And I'm just concerned that that will slow us down. 00:24:04 Speaker 5: But there are risks. 00:24:05 Speaker 2: The second big risk is the speed of decision-making. So the new world of intelligence, in the core part that Tom and I were talking, is still there. But the how you handle warfare... How you handle operations are all going to be AI driven. And where do you get the human in there? And how do you keep the human in, for example, the finger on the nuclear weapon? It's scary, but it's irresistible. 00:24:33 Speaker 7: During this second Trump administration, it seems like certain departments, when we think about geopolitical policymaking, whether it's the State Department or some of the services like the CIA or the FBI, may be taking a. 00:24:47 Speaker 5: Back, you know, taking a. 00:24:49 Speaker 7: Step back vis-a-vis the president and his ability to execute policy, what is the state of our State Department, our intelligence community, and is it of a concern that, in fact, the executive branch is taking more of these responsibilities? 00:25:03 Speaker 2: Well, I'd make two quick points. 00:25:04 Speaker 3: One is. 00:25:06 Speaker 2: The same people that went in when I went in are the same type of people going in today, and rightfully so, more diversified. But they're the same types of mindset and reason. What really matters, and we have a presidential system, it's amazing the impact that a president has. Very quickly, I'll just describe Reagan and Carter. 00:25:26 Speaker 1: Big shift. 00:25:27 Speaker 2: But what was interesting with Carter, he wore cardigan sweaters. Next thing you know, the entire seventh floor were wearing cardigan sweaters. Reagan came in and put a suit and tie on, but they wore brown suits. Next thing I know, I'm surrounded with guys who have never worn a brown suit before. I'm saying the system is resilient, but you cannot underestimate the power of the personality of the president. And it comes from a very good place. I want to satisfy the president. But in the intelligence business, part of your job is to make him uneasy, give him the information that he doesn't want to be comfortable with. So I think the State Department is still the State Department with high-quality people, CIA. It's all about where is the leadership going to take us. 00:26:08 Speaker 3: I'm going to be rude. I'm going to cut to the chase, and I've got to do this with Jack Devine, with his folks at ARC, and that group, truly legendary. And, you know, the quiet awards that they have at CIA, he's won every one of them. The cardinal question I hear every day is given this world turned upside down and basically I think intelligence run out of the Oval Office or maybe with Secretary Hegseth, can we get back to what we knew with Bill Burns or are we irreparably changed in our intelligence? 00:26:43 Speaker 2: I think the intelligence business is sitting on more information and the military than they've ever had. The information is no doubt of a high quality. And the issue is not so much whether we have it. What happens after you deliver it? And if you're delivering it, and I'm assuming and hoping that people do, you have to stay on your ground. A public servant needs to say, you know, if you're walking to say, hey, the truth will set you free, etched in a wall. So, Tom, I don't think it's that we don't have the goods. And the question is, how does one interpret it and how do you act upon it? And that is as variable as I just stated with Paul. 00:27:27 Speaker 3: Yep. 00:27:27 Speaker 7: Jack, you've had so much experience from your time at CIA dealing with what was then the Soviet Union. 00:27:33 Speaker 5: Now it's Russia. How do you think Russia, Ukraine plays out. 00:27:37 Speaker 7: Mr. 00:27:38 Speaker 5: Putin does not seem, we all know the Russians can play the long game here. How do you think he's viewing it right now? 00:27:43 Speaker 2: I think he had a deal when he was in Alaska, didn't take it. I think deep down inside, he probably should have taken it. And the more I read about war fighting in the Ukraine and now in the Crimea and what they're doing. If you're inside the inner circle of Russia, you have to be scratching your head about what's going on and how this is going to play out in our favor. How do we turn the table? So I think he's in an increasingly treacherous water. Dictators can stay in treacherous rural waters, but it takes an iron hand. So I think he's in a much more vulnerable position, not by elections and so on. But we've crossed that stalemate point, and he's lost a lot of momentum, a lot of power around the world. His economy is extraordinary. I think he needs to think about retirement plans. 00:28:33 Speaker 3: What's Hollywood get most wrong about CIA, FBI? 00:28:39 Speaker 2: Well, how good looking to the CIA people are. 00:28:41 Speaker 3: Oh, come on. I mean, come on. I mean, you guys are all out of central casting. You've never seen anybody. 00:28:48 Speaker 2: Tom, you've never seen anybody on TV that looks like me. 00:28:51 Speaker 3: Kelly, what's her name in the Americans? I mean, come on. She's a babe. KGB. Yeah. What do we most get wrong in our Hollywoodization of your world? 00:29:02 Speaker 2: I think Hollywood does a very good job in looking over the horizon. 00:29:05 Speaker 3: Jason Bourne. Yep. 00:29:07 Speaker 2: But what they show you is it's integrated. All the capabilities are integrated. You hit the button, everything goes. It's like slow horses over in England. The show called 24 Hours. And I don't know why it took them so long to get it done. So Hollywood gets the time frame off and understandably. But the second thing I think where they do a great service is. 00:29:28 Speaker 5: They look over their eyes. 00:29:30 Speaker 2: But you have to realize that the minute you're watching, it's not yet quite the reality. 00:29:35 Speaker 3: Did you watch Slow Horses? I did. Are the British that messed up? Yeah. 00:29:40 Speaker 2: Well, we could spend a lot of time on operations that went south. 00:29:43 Speaker 3: Okay, we'll do that. Jack Devine, thank you. Honored to have you in here today. Truly legendary. The Arkin Group and the Council on Foreign Relations. Jack Devine with us on the intelligence and the risk-taking. to protect america. 00:29:57 Speaker 4: This is the bloomberg surveillance podcast available on apple spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts listen live each weekday 7 to 10 a.m eastern on bloomberg.com the iheart radio app tune in and the bloomberg business app you can also watch us live every weekday on youtube and always on the bloomberg terminal 00:30:23 Speaker 1: Thank you.