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Speaker 1: Welcome, say the Favorites. We are live in the Action

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Speaker 1: Network studio. We are presented by BET three sixty five

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Speaker 1: and we are part of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our NFL Playoff Divisional Round Tuesday NFL episode. I am Schadmilman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We did have

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Speaker 1: an amazing time Simon at our live event at The

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Speaker 1: Shepherd and the Knucklehead in Hoboken, New Jersey on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: What a thrill to spend Sunday sweating and winning bets

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Speaker 1: with hundreds of our closest friends. And I will emphasize

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Speaker 1: winning bets. We went four and zero with our Big

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Speaker 1: Balls bet of the week, which was Green Bay plus

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Speaker 1: seven and a half, Foxhol Houston plus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Simon says Rams plus three and a half an exec

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Speaker 1: decision which came through for us last night. The bills

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Speaker 1: as Big Favorites minus ten. You can always follow our

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Speaker 1: picks in the Action app for the Foxhol Simon says,

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Speaker 1: Exec Decision Big Balls. Those are all under the Favorites

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Speaker 1: podcast handle. On today's show, of course, we will get

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Speaker 1: to our Simon tech. We will get to our exec

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Speaker 1: decision on Thursday. We will finalize Big Balls, we will

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Speaker 1: finalize Foxhole, we will finalize moneyline per Parlay. Now let's

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Speaker 1: bring in my co host, might Beff, my companion, my

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Speaker 1: compadre professional better Simon under Hello Son.

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Speaker 2: Like.

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Speaker 1: Look, we had a great weekend. The whole freaking weekend.

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Speaker 1: Everyone in Action Network to Get was together and it

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Speaker 1: just felt like everybody was cash and tickets. Even the

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Speaker 1: Action Island crew. They crushed their Same Game Parlay. Nick

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Speaker 1: Giffen was crushing his live bets from Bet What Happens Live.

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Speaker 1: It was a glorious weekend. Now we have to retrench.

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Speaker 1: We have to think about whereas what teams are overvalued

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Speaker 1: based on what they did this weekend, what teams are

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Speaker 1: undervalued based on what they did this weekend or did

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Speaker 1: not do? How do we manage the perception versus reality

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Speaker 1: versus what bookmakers are trying to trick us into doing.

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Speaker 1: We already talked about how before we came on here,

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Speaker 1: we talked about how there is one game in particular,

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Speaker 1: the books are trying to get us to make a bet.

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Speaker 1: Are we going to be strong? Are we going to

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Speaker 1: make the bet? Are we going to skip the bet?

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Speaker 1: We're going to bet the other side? As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. As a reminder, catch every

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Speaker 1: episode The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying it

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Speaker 1: on YouTube right now, don't forget to like this video.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. I realize as

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Speaker 1: I'm talking I have to apologize for the frogginess in

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Speaker 1: my voice. I sound terrible, But you're not going to

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Speaker 1: get to hear today. But Matt Mitchell sounds so much worse.

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Speaker 1: He's been very busy doing business things this past weekend.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to it. First came up Houston Baltimore.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore is a nine point favorite at bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: This line has steamed down a little bit, open to ten.

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Speaker 1: Now it's at nine. CJ. Shroud continues to defy all

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Speaker 1: of the expectations, the things you don't want to do

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Speaker 1: bet on a first year quarterback. I think we can

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Speaker 1: agree with this guy stapping a first year quarterback about

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Speaker 1: midway through the season. He is just that special first take,

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Speaker 1: first instinct on this game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think I talked about it with the crowd at

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Speaker 3: the show. It's like, if this is above seven, we

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Speaker 3: kind of are tied. Our hands are tied. We have

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Speaker 3: to take Houston. It's just too big of a number.

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Speaker 3: And you know, we know Lamar struggled as a big

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Speaker 3: favorite chat, so you know the fact that we already

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Speaker 3: liked it, and then we have the trends to back

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Speaker 3: it up. Lamar since the last three years, he's one

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Speaker 3: and eight as a favorite seven or more. That's a

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Speaker 3: big deal, right, We have all all the time, like

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Speaker 3: we like to fade him. The lone win was a

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Speaker 3: bet me and you made. We took Houston week one,

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Speaker 3: and you look back now it kind of makes sense, right.

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Speaker 3: It's it's him making this first start, CJ. And it's

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Speaker 3: also the coach making this first start. It's a big deal.

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Speaker 3: Now they're like grizzly vets. They're they've been through it.

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Speaker 3: They've already got their playoff win. So we know the

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Speaker 3: struggles for Lamar and the playoffs. We know this number

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Speaker 3: is too big. Let's not overthink it. We got to

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Speaker 3: just take the Houston plus nine. I mean it was

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Speaker 3: ten and now it's down to nine and a half,

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Speaker 3: down to nine. A couple books and now some books

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Speaker 3: are shown eight and a half. So if you're one

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Speaker 3: with the pros are betting, the pros are taking this,

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Speaker 3: and the public will be all over the Ravens like

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Speaker 3: they're gonna parlay this. They'll tease it, we're gonna talk

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Speaker 3: another game like it's just a week where the favorites

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Speaker 3: do usually win, they usually do cover. So met Chat

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Speaker 3: aren't gonna go to blindly bet all these dogs. But instantly,

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Speaker 3: this is probably our favorite dog of the week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the number is too big. Some more stats. Lamar

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Speaker 1: is a favorite of three and a half or more

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Speaker 1: in his career forty two percent against the spread. That's

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Speaker 1: a sample size of north of fifty games, so it's

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Speaker 1: not insignificant. One hundred and seventy fourth out of one

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Speaker 1: hundred and eighty one quarterbacks the past twenty years. In

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Speaker 1: terms of against the spread record, as a favorite of

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Speaker 1: three and a half or more, it gets worse seven

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Speaker 1: and a half or more. Forty two percent gets a

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Speaker 1: spread one in eight over the past three seasons. That

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Speaker 1: is the worst mark of thirty two qbs that we

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Speaker 1: have in our database. His only cover, like you said,

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Speaker 1: was Week one. Here's my one concern. So CJ was

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Speaker 1: amazing at home, right, twenty five hundred passing years at home,

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Speaker 1: seventeen touchdowns at home, sixty five percent completion rate at home,

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Speaker 1: I think nine yards per attempt at home. On the road,

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Speaker 1: sixty two percent of his passes completed, sixteen of his

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Speaker 1: sixteen hundred of his four thousand yards, six touchdowns. So

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Speaker 1: he is not the same quarterback on the road. It

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Speaker 1: could be a combination of a couple different things, one

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Speaker 1: different surfaces. Bobby Slovac is playing a different game. We

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Speaker 1: see j Shroud on the road, then he is at home.

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Speaker 1: So I do think there is something that makes me

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Speaker 1: a little bit more nervous about betting him on the

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Speaker 1: road as a big dog than when we were so

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Speaker 1: confident betting him at home as a dog.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and just going through his schedule while you're talking

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Speaker 3: about this and looking at his road record.

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Speaker 2: So you already talked about their Week one.

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Speaker 3: Loss to the Ravens, right, You only put up nine points,

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Speaker 3: the Ravens score twenty five. That's a bad loss if

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Speaker 3: you scroll through all the other games, though, every other

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Speaker 3: loss in the road is really close until you get

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Speaker 3: to the Jets game where they lost six six to thirty,

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Speaker 3: which I don't even know if you even played in

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Speaker 3: that one. I think he was banged up. But it's

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Speaker 3: just I get where you're coming from there. The splits

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Speaker 3: are different with him on the road. I just have

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Speaker 3: so much in faith in c J Y now, which

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Speaker 3: is probably might be getting me in trouble, yeah, but

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Speaker 3: it's honestly the Lamar factor as well.

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Speaker 2: Though. Lamar in these big moments, he gets tight.

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Speaker 3: And we just saw a guy Dak which me and

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Speaker 3: you didn't want to back him because we kept talking

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Speaker 3: about his even though it was a small sample. We've

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Speaker 3: seen time again how mental football is and some guys

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Speaker 3: got it. Which I mean, say what you want about

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Speaker 3: how Houston won that game against the Browns. CJ missed

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Speaker 3: a couple of deep balls. Nothing changed right in that

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Speaker 3: first quarter. You missed one deep throw, right, I think

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Speaker 3: it might be Nico Conns. It was gonna be like

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Speaker 3: a walk in touchdown. Next play they went right back downfield.

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Speaker 3: It's like it's there's just so much veteran and just

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Speaker 3: savviness to CJ right now, where it's like I'm trying

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Speaker 3: not to treat him as a rookie, like going on

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Speaker 3: the road to Baltimore, anyone else, I'm right there with

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Speaker 3: you under ten anyone else. I would honestly take the

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Speaker 3: Ravens here. But the fact that Lamar struggled is a

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Speaker 3: big favorite. They're coming off rest against just a team

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Speaker 3: that keeps games close. Like again, going through this, he's

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Speaker 3: never really been blown out like he just he keeps

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Speaker 3: games close. He's just that competitive. So I just I

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Speaker 3: don't see how we don't take them and the money

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Speaker 3: line here, Like it's just the value is going to

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Speaker 3: be there. So like for my favorite dog of the week,

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Speaker 3: it's just it's just Houston. I knew this number was

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Speaker 3: going to be seven or above. I did not think

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Speaker 3: it was gonna be nine and a half ten, which

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Speaker 3: it was the pros of hit that chat.

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Speaker 2: Now it keeps dropping.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not making this, Simon says, because we've already

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Speaker 3: missed the ten. Yeah, but I do think this is

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Speaker 3: gonna end up being you know, either our big ball

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Speaker 3: is better whatever. Just once it dost settles, I do

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Speaker 3: think money will start coming on the Ravens. But right now,

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Speaker 3: looking at our app, it's it's all Houston money right now.

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Speaker 1: Isn't it interesting how you mentioned the mental components of it. Look,

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Speaker 1: the stats bear this out. Lamar is not a guy

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Speaker 1: who when he has a chance to dominate against the

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Speaker 1: team where he's a huge favorite, where he is doing that.

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Speaker 1: Yet I don't think of Lamar and John Harbaugh as

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Speaker 1: two guys who get tight or make bad mental decisions

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Speaker 1: or can't handle the challenges of a big time game

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Speaker 1: or playing way above an inferior opponent. That's all I

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Speaker 1: think about. For Dak and Mike McCarthy. You know, like

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Speaker 1: I just don't see it, Like that's what I mean, Like.

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Speaker 3: We talked before he came on, like went to at

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Speaker 3: home in the playoffs. He's never won a game at

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Speaker 3: home in the playoffs. And yes, this is lined up

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Speaker 3: and get a first win. They should win this game.

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Speaker 3: But there's a lot to that, right, Like that's gonna

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Speaker 3: be in the back of his head. That's a real

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Speaker 3: pressure he's gonna feel. So this is obviously such a

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Speaker 3: huge game full of mare in his career. It's it's

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Speaker 3: set up right, Like their path is so set up

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Speaker 3: in that they have the one seed, they have all

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Speaker 3: the home advantage, like they're at home throughout the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: But we've seen I mean this even this season, remember

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Speaker 3: that Colts game, Yeah at home where it's like there're

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Speaker 3: just little things they struggle with, even that game against

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Speaker 3: Pittlera against the Rams, Right, so there's just times where

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Speaker 3: they're not as untouchable as people perceive as usually one

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Speaker 3: seeds are very untouchable. Right last year we had the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs and the Eagles, both one seeds made a run.

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Speaker 3: I feel confident about the forty and iris will get

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Speaker 3: to later. I do not feel that same confidence in

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Speaker 3: this Ravens team, and I was hoping for a big

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Speaker 3: number to feed them on. I got my wish, like

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Speaker 3: if you were able to grab the ten, you're way

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Speaker 3: ahead of it. I still think nine and a half

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Speaker 3: great value. Even down to eight and a half, there's

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Speaker 3: obviously still amazing value there. I just don't see it

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Speaker 3: getting down below seven to you. So it's like, obviously

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Speaker 3: you guys are grabby in the half. But yeah, this

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Speaker 3: is hard for me.

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Speaker 2: To have to make. Siven says.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to make just wait until Thursday, make our

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Speaker 3: big balls. But I do love this spot so much

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Speaker 3: for Houston.

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Speaker 1: All right, next game on the board, Green Bay at

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Speaker 1: San Francisco, And this is the only game we could

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Speaker 1: discuss on Sunday night. It opened Green Bay as a

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Speaker 1: ten point underdog coming off of that demolishing of the Cowboys,

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Speaker 1: and the line moved to nine and a half. I'll

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Speaker 1: say this right now, San Francisco executive decision, the choice

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Speaker 1: between the unthinkable and the impossible?

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Speaker 2: Are you av your honor? STU executive decision.

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Speaker 1: I had the bills last week in minus ten, never

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Speaker 1: worried about it. I have so many thoughts and why

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Speaker 1: San Francisco is the right side here, but I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure you agree with me. No.

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Speaker 3: What's funny though, if this was Aaron Rodgers, I would

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Speaker 3: be which sounds stupid, but if you go through our history,

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Speaker 3: me and Chad always faded Aaron Rodgers in this spot,

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Speaker 3: even if they're at home against the forty nine ers team,

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Speaker 3: we would always just take the forty nine Ers against Rogers.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, looking at this, Chad, I get where're coming from.

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Speaker 3: This's is hard for me, Like I WOA say all

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Speaker 3: the time, it's just hard for me to back favorites,

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Speaker 3: But you're probably right this, Probably there is the right

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Speaker 3: spot to back is forty nine Ers team. Not only

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Speaker 3: do you have the experience, it felt like the green

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Speaker 3: Bay win last week was more about Dallas than it

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Speaker 3: was about green Bay. Even though Jordan Love did make

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Speaker 3: the throws and LaForce schemed it up incredibly and their

248
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Speaker 3: defense did play so well, It's like, man, that was

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Speaker 3: a complete total meltdown from the whole Dallas team, Like

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Speaker 3: even their defense looked like they never played before. So

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Speaker 3: you're exactly right, Like if you're trying to like I

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Speaker 3: wanted to be on green Bay. Chad's right, though, if

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Speaker 3: you're looking at what this number should be and where

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Speaker 3: the value is, it is too low.

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Speaker 2: This probably should be closer to twelve twelve and a half.

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Speaker 3: You're getting two free points here just because they beat

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Speaker 3: quote unquote America's team in Dallas last week. So it's pain.

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Speaker 3: It's paining me to do. But with me, I do

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Speaker 3: agree with you. I just think the number is too low.

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Speaker 3: Where I really wish this was what it should be,

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Speaker 3: which is closer at twelve and a half.

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Speaker 2: Thirteen. Would have loved to take Green Bay at that number.

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Speaker 3: But the fact that you can still get it a

264
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Speaker 3: couple of books that I'm looking, you can still get

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Speaker 3: the nine and a half. I don't hate it. And

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Speaker 3: we talk all the time. This is this is gonna

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Speaker 3: be the game that people are gonna tease together, like

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Speaker 3: this is the move. People are gonna take the one seeds,

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Speaker 3: They're gonna throw them together. And I just I mean,

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Speaker 3: the forty nine ers are what down a plus one

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Speaker 3: seventy five to win.

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Speaker 2: The Super Bowl. They're the best team in football.

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Speaker 3: Like the fans, I mean, we met a couple of

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Speaker 3: our show on Sunday, Like I said, you guys should

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Speaker 3: have your chest puffed out, like you're by far the best.

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Speaker 2: Team, you have the best path.

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Speaker 3: Now you're getting to play the seventh seed at home again,

278
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Speaker 3: Dallas made history. We never saw a seventh seed beat

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Speaker 3: a two seed before green Bay. They clearly should not

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Speaker 3: be a seventh seed. Right, they're better, Like they're better

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Speaker 3: than Eagles, like, no doubt if they would have played

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Speaker 3: the Eagles, I would take green Bay.

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Speaker 1: If the seasons started in November instead of September and

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Speaker 1: went to February, the Eagles might not have made the

285
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Speaker 1: playoffs and the Packers might have been a two seed.

286
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Speaker 1: Like that's how well they've been playing. So you think so,

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Speaker 1: you think so. Look, we loved the Packers on Sunday night, right,

288
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Speaker 1: we immediately were smashing the Packers at plus seven and

289
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Speaker 1: a half two Sundays ago, where like, this number doesn't

290
00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,280
Speaker 1: make any sense. How is this number at seven and

291
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Speaker 1: a half. So we played it, and it played out

292
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Speaker 1: exactly as we thought it would be. McCarthy, terrible coach

293
00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,840
Speaker 1: and terrible play caller who we knew talk about getting tight.

294
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Speaker 1: We knew he would get tight in that game. The

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00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:49,760
Speaker 1: defense plays too much man and it was overrated as

296
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Speaker 1: a pass rush. So you had the polar ends where

297
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Speaker 1: in the high profile spots everyone thinks they're amazing, but

298
00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 1: they're kind of not that amazing, and their numbers were middling.

299
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Speaker 1: They just made really high profile plays that looked fancy.

300
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Speaker 2: Right.

301
00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:09,080
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, the Niners have a better overall offense against a

302
00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:13,800
Speaker 1: still suspect defense. Let me give you some games that

303
00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:18,120
Speaker 1: during this streak since November, when Green Bay started to

304
00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:22,120
Speaker 1: get hot, Jordan Love all of a sudden found his groove. Right,

305
00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,840
Speaker 1: that's what everyone's talking about, thinking they're so good. They

306
00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:30,120
Speaker 1: lost to the Steelers, they lost to the Giants. They

307
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Speaker 1: beat the Chiefs, but don't forget they beat the Chiefs

308
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,360
Speaker 1: on a no call pass interference that could have forced

309
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Speaker 1: them to lose the game. They barely beat the Chargers.

310
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Speaker 1: They gave up thirty three points to the Panthers. The

311
00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:43,960
Speaker 1: Panthers didn't score thirty three points in the second half

312
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,200
Speaker 1: of the year combined, but they gave up thirty three

313
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:50,560
Speaker 1: thirty points to the Panthers. So if this were a

314
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Speaker 1: regular season game, we would be fading this Packers team.

315
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Speaker 1: Because even Sean Kerner, he did projections for every team

316
00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:04,040
Speaker 1: had into the playoffs and every game, every matchup heading

317
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,680
Speaker 1: into the playoffs, the projection for this game was green

318
00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:11,480
Speaker 1: Bay plus eleven and a half. And I was talking

319
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:13,760
Speaker 1: to Stucky yesterday. We were in the office and we're

320
00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:18,360
Speaker 1: all hanging out this weekend, and we were like, green Bay,

321
00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:20,400
Speaker 1: if not for the way they beat up on Dallas,

322
00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,360
Speaker 1: they'd be a twelve thirteen point underdog in this game.

323
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Speaker 1: Let me give you some more stats. Okay, even though

324
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,160
Speaker 1: I know, I feel like I finally convinced you to

325
00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,200
Speaker 1: come to my side and that we're gonna be betting

326
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:35,400
Speaker 1: buddies on this San Francisco was ranked higher than Green

327
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,280
Speaker 1: Bay in each of the following categories. Yards per game,

328
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:43,560
Speaker 1: passing yards per game, rushing yards per game, points scored

329
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:48,200
Speaker 1: per game, third down percentage, yards allowed per game, rushing

330
00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,840
Speaker 1: yards allowed per game, points allowed per game, third down

331
00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:55,600
Speaker 1: percentage against. They have been a dominant team all season long.

332
00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:59,240
Speaker 1: There's no reason not to be betting the forty nine

333
00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:01,480
Speaker 1: ers as a fait it. Don't be fooled.

334
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just you know, I just say taking big favorites.

335
00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:07,240
Speaker 3: But I mean, you nailed all with all the stats

336
00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 3: there too. And it's also fort nitars at home. We

337
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,119
Speaker 3: talk all the time we like back in Shane and

338
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,080
Speaker 3: at Home as a favorite. It's been good to especially

339
00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,560
Speaker 3: the last couple of years. So yeah, the more we

340
00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:17,119
Speaker 3: talk about the more I feel like it is a

341
00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,680
Speaker 3: good bet. And it also feels like you should go

342
00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:21,960
Speaker 3: grab that nine and a half, like it's out there.

343
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,080
Speaker 3: Don't be stuckish to one book. People, We tell you

344
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,000
Speaker 3: all the time you have to shop around. So I'm

345
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,560
Speaker 3: looking at two of the more public books. They're still

346
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:33,359
Speaker 3: hanging it and it's only minus one fifteen and one

347
00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,359
Speaker 3: book minus one eighteenth. The other book the Juice, So

348
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,199
Speaker 3: I would go grab that before it moves to ten.

349
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:39,879
Speaker 1: Evan just put this note into the script. The last

350
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:47,280
Speaker 1: nine quarterbacks against the Panthers sixteen touchdowns for interceptions. Don't

351
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,520
Speaker 1: forget Dak lit up that defense. I know they were

352
00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,000
Speaker 1: passing NonStop at the end of the game, but they

353
00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,080
Speaker 1: completely lit up that defense.

354
00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:59,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we're also getting a four Niners defense at

355
00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:01,960
Speaker 3: home that you know, I expect them to be able

356
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:03,960
Speaker 3: to scheme up something to stop the Jordan love just

357
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,720
Speaker 3: because I talked about it before. Lafleur had struggled against

358
00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 3: his forty nunders team in the past. Like you can

359
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:10,600
Speaker 3: go back and look at his days with Aaron Rodgers.

360
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:12,439
Speaker 3: There's a couple of time there too. Rogers got home

361
00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,360
Speaker 3: at Lambeau favorite against his forty Nineers defense has struggled,

362
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 3: So that's just not a laflort thing, right, I mean,

363
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,159
Speaker 3: we saw Jordan Love is kind of like a carbon

364
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,000
Speaker 3: copy of Rogers throwing off bounds, throwing the side and passes.

365
00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:25,919
Speaker 2: It's kind of the same offense. Nothing's really changed.

366
00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,359
Speaker 3: So the e fact of that in the past they've struggled.

367
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,800
Speaker 3: We'll see if Jordan Love could take that enormous step.

368
00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 3: But I feel like he's already done it in his

369
00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 3: first season, right, like that game with Dallas, that was it. Right,

370
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 3: They're gonna be feeling so good this week we expect

371
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,080
Speaker 3: to let down. I mean, they're a young team, like

372
00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 3: Green Bay's a young team, so Chad, right, don't let

373
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:44,520
Speaker 3: the ten scarry off. I would grab it now though,

374
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:46,200
Speaker 3: because there are still nine and a half's out there.

375
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,359
Speaker 1: Look, it feels like the Packers can be happy with

376
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,560
Speaker 1: making it to the second round of the playoffs, and

377
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:53,640
Speaker 1: they're gonna be like, oh my god, this is so exciting.

378
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,040
Speaker 1: We have so much to build in. The Niners are

379
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 1: not happy with anything less than winning the Super Bowl.

380
00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:01,680
Speaker 1: So there's just different expectations in this game. In fact,

381
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure I know what the final score is.

382
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:04,639
Speaker 1: Do you want to know what's gonna be?

383
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 2: Oh God, Chad, go ahead, forty.

384
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,480
Speaker 1: Two to fourteen. It just this, This has all the

385
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 1: makings telling you right now.

386
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,679
Speaker 2: So Chad likes the over. If you're keeping track at home,

387
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 2: Chad likes the over.

388
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 1: I do I do? All right? A quick word from

389
00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:22,080
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411
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 1: talking about Kansas City APT Buffalo. The line right now

412
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 1: is two and a half. It's been all over the place.

413
00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:47,879
Speaker 1: It was at three for about thirty seconds, two and

414
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,679
Speaker 1: a half, got down to two. Now it's back up

415
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 1: to two and a half. It's trending back towards three,

416
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 1: which means.

417
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 2: I'm making the bills. My Simon says.

418
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 1: Chad says, when Simon says, do it, we do.

419
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 2: What Simon says as the least confident as I can sound.

420
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 2: But I have to do it.

421
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 3: I can't believe I'm doing it, And like even now,

422
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 3: I just had a buddy text me and he's just

423
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 3: like another pro and he's just like, do not, do

424
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 3: not take the Bills.

425
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 2: I have to do it. He just knew he knew

426
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 2: me too well.

427
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 3: But it's just I just love this Bills team and

428
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,199
Speaker 3: I love this spot, and like the fear for me

429
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 3: right now is what injuries happened?

430
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 2: Right because they're playing again. It's a joke the NFL.

431
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 3: They have him outside playing the game on concrete like

432
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 3: that that field was concrete.

433
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:39,120
Speaker 2: Anytimes someone got tackled, they.

434
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:40,360
Speaker 3: Would get up and they look like they're in such

435
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:42,399
Speaker 3: ping and someone's like, why they why did they all

436
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:43,439
Speaker 3: look I have to get tackled.

437
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 2: It's like they're literally being tackled the concrete.

438
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 3: It was crazy. So obviously I get the pushback on

439
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 3: the Bills. But before we went on chat, I told

440
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 3: you my my big thing is I don't I don't

441
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 3: think people are understanding this Chiefs team just isn't right right.

442
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 3: People are getting sucked back in on this Chiefs team

443
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 3: and I'm not like they scored two touchdowns and then

444
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 3: struggled in the red zone against the Miami team Miami

445
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 3: gifted them that whole game, right, Like they could not

446
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 3: do a single thing on offense. They had a ton

447
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 3: of injuries to their defense, so the Chiefs could move

448
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 3: the ball anyway they wanted up and down the field.

449
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 2: And people are back in.

450
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,120
Speaker 3: Everyone's like, well, it's the playoffs, right, Mahomes is back,

451
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 3: this is the team, this is them back in the playoffs,

452
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 3: and it's just I can't get there. So I think

453
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:23,199
Speaker 3: the public will be on this side. And I know

454
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 3: a couple of pros are where it's like I can

455
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:26,719
Speaker 3: see it being the same thing with the Rams that

456
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 3: we're gonna look in the app and it's gonna be

457
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 3: a lot of money skewed.

458
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:30,400
Speaker 2: Towards the bills.

459
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 3: If they make this plus three, that will change, like

460
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 3: so much money will come in on the Chiefs team

461
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 3: a plus three because I when we know all the stats,

462
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,159
Speaker 3: Mahomes is a dog. I think I haven't talked about it.

463
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 3: He's like eight and one in his last nine as

464
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 3: an underdog. Yeah, it's amazing.

465
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 1: You remember that because I needed all the stats written down.

466
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 3: So now, because that one sticks with me where it's

467
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 3: like me and you love Betty, Mahomes is a dog,

468
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,919
Speaker 3: and it paints for it pains me not to do

469
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 3: it here, but it's this number should be three and

470
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 3: a half four Like maybe because of the Bills injuries

471
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:01,679
Speaker 3: to defense, this number would start making more sense to me,

472
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 3: where it's like, okay, this should be under a three

473
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 3: two and a half. But me and you have been

474
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 3: riding this Bills team now for months and we keep

475
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 3: talking about they've been in these playoff games four months.

476
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 3: They've made huge changes to their offense, which obviously benefit them,

477
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 3: and bringing in Rusull Douglass totally changed the identity that

478
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 3: the second half, where like their secondary was easy to

479
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 3: be passed on, he came in there start getting turnovers

480
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 3: just picks. He was able to add to their run

481
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,239
Speaker 3: stopping game too, like he is incredible attack. Yes, so

482
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 3: all these little things that Bills did really changed our

483
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 3: perception number. The Chiefs have done.

484
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 2: None of that.

485
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 3: I mean, go through just what they've done, even in December, right,

486
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 3: we always tak you never fade Mahomes in November December.

487
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 3: This year we are fade him all November all December.

488
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 3: And I think people are overacting too much of this

489
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 3: one game. Go watch that tape. People, all those field goals,

490
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 3: like they just they're not the same team in the

491
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 3: red zone. There's no imagination there in the red zone.

492
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,959
Speaker 3: Like that first drive was vintage Mahomes and the Chiefs. Right,

493
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 3: they drove right down the field. He was making the

494
00:23:57,040 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 3: perfect passes. I think Rice was wide open, right. It

495
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 3: was like an underneath play where the linebackers dropped back.

496
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 3: There was no one to the right. He just walked

497
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 3: right in. That was vintage. The rest of the game

498
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,719
Speaker 3: it was not like that, like there's just it's just

499
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 3: not there. Even the drops too, kept showing up right,

500
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 3: even Kelsey having multiple drops. It's like, this is just

501
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 3: not the same team. So if if the Bills, if

502
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,239
Speaker 3: this game had been closer and they had struggled, and

503
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 3: it was just like, okay, this this Josh Allen can't

504
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 3: stop turning the bull ever, stop can't stop making stupid plays.

505
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 3: I think he played really smart in that Pittsburgh game.

506
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,239
Speaker 3: He pulled it down Randy when he need to, he

507
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 3: hand They handed it off. And like the run blocking

508
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 3: scheme as well has looked so much better. It's just

509
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 3: it's just all there. And then new factor as well.

510
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 3: Mahomes has never played a road playoff game. So this

511
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 3: is a big deal, right, He's going to Buffalo where

512
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 3: we you talk all the time. That's a hard place

513
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 3: to play. Like, tell people to be quiet while he

514
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 3: does his snap count. It's gonna be loud and rowdy.

515
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,360
Speaker 3: So we're getting under two and a half, Come on,

516
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 3: join me take this number. I know it's scary going

517
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 3: against my homes, but at three and a half, homes

518
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 3: makes sense.

519
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 2: At two and a half, it feels like the Bills

520
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 2: is to play here.

521
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 1: So let me let me throw some water.

522
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 2: Do it.

523
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: On your very hot take, you mentioned Patrick Mahomes eight

524
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 1: one and one. Yeah, in those ten career games, including

525
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 1: the postseason in which he has been an underdog eight

526
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: one and one, he's six and three straight up, seven

527
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 1: and one, seven to one and one against the spread.

528
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: In those nine regular season games one to oh straight

529
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 1: up and against the spread as an underdog in the playoffs.

530
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,360
Speaker 1: That was last year's Super Bowl.

531
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, they used to be a good team, the Chiefs.

532
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: I'm not discounting that his record is actually better away

533
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 1: from home thirty nine and eleven straight up on the

534
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 1: road thirty five and eleven at home. He's more profitable

535
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 1: against the spread as the Visitor going twenty eight to

536
00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: twenty and two on the road in games twenty twenty

537
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 1: five and one at Arrowhead. And that makes sense, right,

538
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,199
Speaker 1: Like on the road the numbers are going to be

539
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 1: a little bit less inflated. That are always going to

540
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 1: be super high at Arrowhead. The market has never cut

541
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 1: up to the fact that they play a more conservative

542
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: game at Arrowhead. They score fewer points at Arrowhead. They

543
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 1: just assume at home. Patrick Mahomes got to tee off,

544
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: so that makes sense. And look, I agree with you.

545
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: We have loved the Bills all week. We have loved

546
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: the Bills all month. I felt like going to the playoffs,

547
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,360
Speaker 1: they might have been the best team in the AFC

548
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 1: for sure, maybe the best team in the NFL with

549
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: the way Joe Brady has changed that offense in Josh Allen,

550
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 1: he had a lot of picks, but it's much more

551
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 1: running focus. And we've talked a lot about how teams

552
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 1: and their time of possession against the Bills has decreased.

553
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 1: You mentioned Russell will Douglas didn't play, got to Steelers,

554
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 1: was inactive knee injury. We don't know if he'll play

555
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:06,199
Speaker 1: this weekend. They lost more linebackers and more dbs playing

556
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: on that turf last night. No, Stefan Diggs looked like

557
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 1: every time he went to the ground like something was breaking.

558
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: When the Steelers on Monday, when they started to make

559
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,680
Speaker 1: a game of it was when those players went out

560
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden they had so many more

561
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,639
Speaker 1: opportunities in the middle of the field. I know Travis

562
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 1: Kelsey hasn't have a great year, but that is how

563
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 1: they can beat the Bills. That is their strength against

564
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 1: a Bill's weakness.

565
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, and just throw water on I love you and

566
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 3: I love all the statue gave those are with Tyreek

567
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 3: Hill and the ble on me like the OC that's

568
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 3: no longer there. And we just talked about their struggles

569
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 3: this season. But I mean, anyone can open up the

570
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 3: app and go through their games this year and it's

571
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 3: just the offense just has not been there, even when

572
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 3: you go down the home stretch here. You know, we

573
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 3: bet against them with the Bills. The Bills went to

574
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 3: since the Chiefs and they beat them twenty to seventeen in.

575
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 2: Their regular season.

576
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know it's just like I can't overreact

577
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 3: to what the Chiefs just did last week, where I

578
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 3: get the pushback, and I get all these stats, and

579
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 3: I really did wanted to be on the Chiefs, but

580
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,199
Speaker 3: it's just they're just not the same team. And I

581
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 3: think people still have to come to full terms with that.

582
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 3: Just because they did win their division and they did

583
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 3: just blow out a team in the playoffs, it feels

584
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 3: like it's all the same, but it's not. And that's

585
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,959
Speaker 3: like my biggest issue is, so Chad's right about the injuries,

586
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 3: Like it's terrifying the injuries that Bills have had to

587
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,439
Speaker 3: their defense. But they're just they're that magical team and

588
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,280
Speaker 3: like we keep talking about, like the fact that everyone's

589
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 3: out on them, everyone doubted them, that you could have

590
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 3: got them at fifty to one to win the Super

591
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 3: Bowl in December, that's just like why I love this team.

592
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:41,479
Speaker 3: Like that's the year the teams make runs and win

593
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 3: super Bowls when no one believes them, everyone counts them out,

594
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 3: and they make these crazy runs. And they're just on

595
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 3: a crazy run right now. So every counterpoint you've said

596
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 3: is so fair. I'm just trusting the number, the fact

597
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 3: that the number is under three three, three and a half.

598
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 3: I get the Chiefs love, but a two and a half,

599
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 3: it's just like that's such a big deal that number

600
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 3: is under it, especially when we know, like we're looking

601
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 3: at this guys, the fact that Buffalo went there and

602
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 3: won twenty to seventeen, and I know peoplere gonna push

603
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 3: back and be like, well that was the no call.

604
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 3: I think the guy dropped a touchdown where they could

605
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 3: have beat the Bills. Where it's like you can say

606
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 3: that with any game, like there's always gonna be calls.

607
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 3: I mean, we didn't talk about the Lions game yet,

608
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 3: but like there's always gonna be calls and non.

609
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 2: Calls that it determined a lot of these games.

610
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 3: But just the way the Bills have played the fact

611
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 3: that this is such a revenge spot, right, Like Mahomes

612
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 3: and Josh Allen, you know they play cute and like

613
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 3: they're good friends. Allen has been sitting on that loss.

614
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, yeah to Mahomes from two three years ago

615
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 3: for this whole time, and like this it's poetic justice,

616
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 3: Like you win this game, you somehow go and beat

617
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 3: the Ravens and that's how you make the Super Bowl run.

618
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 3: Like it just feels like whenever you look at the

619
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 3: NFL history and how it all lines up with these

620
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: guys had the cock with these. I mean, Michael Jordan,

621
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 3: your favorite guy. He had to overtake the Drui Piston team.

622
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 3: He had to hit the gym, get jacked for three

623
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 3: years to get big and strong enough to overtake that team.

624
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 3: That's what it feels like here with the Bills, where

625
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 3: it's like the Chiefs had didn't that stop for for them.

626
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: It's the reason they never got to the super Bowl.

627
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 3: And this sold Josh Allen there and now it's finally

628
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 3: lined up. They got a bad Chiefs team at home,

629
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 3: first time Mahome has ever been on the road in

630
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 3: this kind of scenario. It just feels really lined up.

631
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 3: So I'm trying hard to convince people on this guy.

632
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 3: No hart is to take them, but so what I'm

633
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 3: telling you take the two and a half, don't be

634
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 3: scared off by this numb or take the Bills here.

635
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: Last night, even Josh Allen said he was, and he

636
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: said this as a compliment. Aj Klein came off the

637
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 1: street to play great. Ajklin might be starting in the

638
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: middle for the Bills in this game, which means it's

639
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 1: going to be aj Klin trying to read Patrick Mahomes

640
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 1: like I want to be on the bill so bad.

641
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 1: In this game, I do think Josh Allen looks amazing,

642
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 1: and I think Patrick Mahomes. You know, you have mentioned

643
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 1: many times on this show this year that mahomes ve game.

644
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 2: Just two weeks ago, three weeks ago.

645
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: I do, Yes, I totally do. And you've mentioned many

646
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: times this year like they're broken Mahomes, this is not

647
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 1: the right team, and then Mahomes has been really whiny

648
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: all season long. You've totally said that. And I think

649
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 1: Josh Allen looked amazing last night, and I thought like

650
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 1: he played within himself, right, you know how when you're

651
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 1: a great athlete and you you sort of think you're

652
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 1: a wild horse, right, you need to be broken a

653
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 1: little bit.

654
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 3: I didn't see that though, because he did struggle against Miami,

655
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 3: Like he did not play great in.

656
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 2: That Miami game. No, but last night, Yeah, that's what

657
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 2: I mean. I need to see him have a great game.

658
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: He had a great game, made the right calls. He

659
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 1: felt like an adult, do you know what I mean?

660
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 1: And like you don't always see that you don't like

661
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 1: Josh Allen. You see him making boneheaded plays that it

662
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: kind of plays when you think looking like I'm the

663
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,479
Speaker 1: best athlete. I can do anything, and like last night,

664
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 1: he didn't try to do that. He tried to play

665
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: with control.

666
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 2: He took what the defense gave m.

667
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 1: So I can if if they can play with control,

668
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 1: I can see it. I feel a little guilty cause

669
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: you decided to be my betting buddy on Green Bay

670
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 1: and I'm on the Niners, and I'm having a harder

671
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: time being your betting buddy.

672
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 3: I totally get it, Dudie. I want to bet my

673
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 3: homes as a dog too. I like betting dogs.

674
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: Great note from owning here are Chiefs from Evan. Chiefs

675
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: has scored ten total points in the first queter in

676
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 1: the first quarter of the last five games versus the Bills,

677
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 1: meaning if we like the Chiefs, we're gonna get a

678
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 1: better number live. Okay, So there you go, all right, Sam,

679
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 1: And I know it's playoff time. Life is full of

680
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 1: distractions right now in your world, but that's still not

681
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 1: a good excuse for forgetting the fastest growing ticketing app

682
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: in the United States. Can you name it?

683
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 2: Game Time?

684
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love Game Time for

685
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they sponsored this show. Second, I actually

686
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 1: use game Time all the time. They have amazing last

687
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 1: minute deals including pro and college games. That's right, tomorrow night,

688
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 1: I am going to a Yukon basketball game using tickets

689
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 1: used on Game Time. I'm going to open the app

690
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 1: right now here from our studio, live in New York City.

691
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 1: And what do I see? I see right now I

692
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 1: can get into, let's say, a New York Knicks basketball

693
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 1: game at the world famous Madison Square Garden four less

694
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 1: than one hundred dollars this week, no matter where you live,

695
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 1: download the game Time app. Get out have some fun

696
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 1: this week because you deserve it. You can redeem code

697
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again.

698
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 1: Just down on the Game Time app. You used code

699
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Last minute tickets,

700
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 1: lowest prices, guaranteed all right, last game on the board.

701
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 1: By the way, I should say, and you didn't give

702
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 1: me your projections. How you have these games power rated

703
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: for these games? But Kerner had the Bills Chiefs game

704
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: power Raider two. He had the Texans Ravens game power

705
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 1: rated at ten. So we're taking the Texans in there,

706
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 1: which I agree with. But there's about a point of value.

707
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 1: According to Kerner on the Ravens, I said that he

708
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 1: loved the Niners. In this spot, he has the Tampa

709
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 1: Bay visiting Detroit Lions. That game is currently at six.

710
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 1: Kerner had projected at seven and a half. The line

711
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 1: opened at seven, got bet down to six and a half,

712
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 1: got bit down to six. My instinct here is Lions.

713
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually honestly have this at five. So it's

714
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 3: technically for me the value is on Tampa. But I

715
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 3: justtally don't really like Tampa on the spot. No, no,

716
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 3: And I think it's more honestly about golf. It just

717
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,320
Speaker 3: played so bad last week. I know, people like again

718
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 3: media is the dumbest thing ever. But because they won

719
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 3: by one point, people were just blowing smoke up Golf's

720
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 3: ass and Detroit's ass and be like, look how well

721
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 3: they played against Stafford and holding them to all those

722
00:34:58,000 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 3: field goals.

723
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 2: They scored three points to.

724
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 3: The second half like against a Rams defense that the

725
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,959
Speaker 3: guy had just torched the half before. So the fact

726
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 3: that he struggled with the adjustments made by the Rams

727
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 3: a little scary, like a little scary because now we

728
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 3: have Todd Boles coming in, which you know, I don't

729
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 3: like him, and it's just because he's a dinosaur, like

730
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 3: he runs a very dinosaur defense where it said more

731
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 3: about the Eagles and it did about Todd Bowles last

732
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 3: night where he didn't disguise anything. He literally would have

733
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 3: nine guys walk up to the line and either all

734
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 3: eight were blitzing or all nine were blitzing, or he

735
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 3: might drop two back into coverage. It was just very like,

736
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 3: we're not gonna change what we're doing here, and we're

737
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:39,439
Speaker 3: gonna show you exactly what we're doing. Just because they're

738
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 3: kind of making fun of Hurts in that offense, they

739
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 3: were just like you guys that don't have a hot route,

740
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 3: you don't have the offense to combat us just blitzing it.

741
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 1: And they didn't have the receivers.

742
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 3: Yes, and the flip side Detroit, I mean again, God,

743
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 3: I mean they're not mobile, but they do have We

744
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 3: talked about Laporte at one of the best tight ends ever.

745
00:35:58,440 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 3: He'll be able to get him the ball. I'm not

746
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 3: saying Brown can always get open anytime he needs. Like

747
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 3: the Bucks are not as good as well perceiving. But

748
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 3: the fear is this Detroit team is not that good either,

749
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 3: Like they're also a team that can be passed on.

750
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 3: And we just seen Bakers looked so well, like even

751
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 3: against Eagles, like he was throwing to the exact spots

752
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 3: he should be throwing to, like guys were wide open,

753
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 3: and it's like, Okay, not only has he seen the

754
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 3: feed field, well, he's really trusting the offense, like he

755
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 3: was just in such a rhythm last night that that's

756
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 3: the hardest part for me. So I really, I really

757
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 3: do want to take Tampa, but I just can't get

758
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 3: there right now.

759
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 2: So maybe I'll change by Thursday.

760
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:41,839
Speaker 3: But yeah, golf to me is just he's bad, Like

761
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 3: he's just he's inconsistent where it's like he looked incredible

762
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 3: in that first half. In the second half, it looked

763
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 3: like a got to him, like he just could not

764
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 3: play well. So it's it's scaring me a little bit.

765
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 1: Well, look, we didn't love the can't the Eagles and

766
00:36:56,320 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 1: Bucks game a week we kind of waffled on that

767
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 1: game ended up being a game we didn't want to play.

768
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 1: I didn't bet anything in the game other than Kadatt

769
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 1: and over because Stuckey, you know, called it in the

770
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:14,439
Speaker 1: Sunday six pack his over twenty one, and he got

771
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: that in two catches. But Baker, I think for us

772
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: is a conundrum because he's been he's been great this year,

773
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 1: and so are we betting on Baker to continue to

774
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 1: be accurate, to continue to be careful with the ball.

775
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:43,359
Speaker 1: If so, this Lion secondary can be passed.

776
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 2: On, Right's back door is always gonna be open.

777
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:50,280
Speaker 1: Here's some stats from Evan and uh the last four games.

778
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 1: Stafford and the Rams twenty five of thirty six, three

779
00:37:55,239 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: and sixty seven yards to touchdowns and no picks. Nick

780
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 1: Mullins nearly four hundred yards, Justin Jefferson had nearly two

781
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: hundred yards receiving. By the way, Puka had one hundred

782
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 1: and eighty yards receiving. Dak twenty six of thirty eight

783
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:17,280
Speaker 1: three hundred and forty five yards, Ceedee Lamb two hundred

784
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 1: and twenty seven yards receiving, and then Minnesota the week

785
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 1: before Mullens four hundred and eleven yards, Justin Jefferson one

786
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 1: hundred and forty one yards. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer,

787
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 1: one of those guys might have two hundred yards receiving

788
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:37,439
Speaker 1: against this Lion's secondary.

789
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 3: But you saw what they did a combat that is

790
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 3: again it's football. I know Lions fans are very sensitive,

791
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 3: but your guys team did play dirty, Like your defense

792
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:47,959
Speaker 3: were taking an incredible amount of cheap shots hitting guys

793
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 3: low where it's like where also, are they supposed to

794
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 3: hit him? You're not supposed to take a guy's kneecap

795
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 3: out when he's going over the middle, Okay, like you

796
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:55,360
Speaker 3: can hit him in the thigh or in the mid section.

797
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 3: But it's just like they took on Campbell's identity, like

798
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 3: they know they they know their defense is terrible. So

799
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 3: what they did to the Rams, anytimes Puke caught it,

800
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 3: even if the first guy hit him and he's going down,

801
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 3: the second guy would come in and clean him up, right,

802
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 3: because in football you can get away. That's a physical sport.

803
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:13,879
Speaker 3: And that's what they did against the Rams. Why would

804
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 3: they not do the same against Tampa Here It's like

805
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 3: they're just gonna be hitting the hell out of them

806
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 3: so they know that they know they stink.

807
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 2: And I'm in total greense.

808
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 3: That's why I don't want to take the six where

809
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 3: it's like I can't believe, Like Chad was talking bet

810
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 3: before it came on this had gone up to seven

811
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 3: at one point, so open to five and a half.

812
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 3: All the money came and all the teasers, all the

813
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 3: bets came in on Detroit. This guy driven up to seven,

814
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 3: the pros have coming back. Now it's down to six

815
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:38,839
Speaker 3: at most books. It's just like, yeah, seven's too big

816
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 3: because they're always being able to get back door like

817
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 3: that numbers too big.

818
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 2: Six feels right.

819
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 3: Like I said, I do have value slanted towards this

820
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 3: Tampa team, but it's just hard for me to get

821
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 3: there where it's like, you know, I look at what

822
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 3: Chad just talk about this Lion's team, and it's just

823
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:55,720
Speaker 3: like they can't protect leads.

824
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 2: And even then it's like we just.

825
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 3: Saw last week that offense got so tight in the

826
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 3: second half, Like I can't get over the effectively put

827
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 3: three points up at home. It's pretty insane. So yeah,

828
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 3: I just like, again, me and Chad, we don't need

829
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 3: a force bets who really have four games up. But

830
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 3: it's like, you know, we're probably gonna have to make

831
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 3: a pick on us, either a side or a total

832
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 3: in this game as we're city right now. It's like

833
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 3: I want to take Tampa, but I'm not gonna rush you.

834
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:19,479
Speaker 3: The seven is already gone. If you can get the seven, great.

835
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 3: The book that sponsors our show doesn't have a seven,

836
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 3: it's a six. There's no point in giving it out

837
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 3: right now.

838
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 1: I feel like as we're talking, we're going to convince

839
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:30,720
Speaker 1: ourselves to be on the box. I said, Lions instinctive.

840
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 2: Now it's up to six and a half.

841
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 1: And now that I'm watching, I'm reading all this, by

842
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:38,720
Speaker 1: the way, the most Baker stat ever. We love Baker.

843
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 1: We've talked about Baker Moxie all season long. Yeah, twenty

844
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 1: seven to twenty one against the spread as a dog

845
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 1: in his career, four in a row as a dog,

846
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 1: including seven and one against spread the last eight.

847
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 2: So he's been good to us.

848
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:51,439
Speaker 1: He's been great.

849
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 2: Yeah.

850
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 1: And like, the more you think about this matchup, the

851
00:40:55,120 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 1: Lions are gonna win, but Baker could keep this in

852
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 1: the game. So it's very possible, I hate to say it,

853
00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:07,319
Speaker 1: like this is gonna be Foxhole or big Balls. Like

854
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 1: we know at this point, we know that the Niners

855
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 1: are exec decision, we know that the Bills are, Simon says,

856
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 1: so it could be Texans are big Balls and Bucks

857
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 1: or Foxhole or vice versa. I do think we need

858
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 1: a little bit of some sharp calls to help us

859
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 1: out as we get to Thursday show. Before we can

860
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 1: make that call, here's a question from the chat. As

861
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:33,120
Speaker 1: soon as I remind everybody to catch every episode of

862
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 1: The Favorites live on YouTube, and if you were watching

863
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 1: on YouTube right now, don't forget to give us a

864
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 1: like overall, subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Okay,

865
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 1: here's from the chat. If you have a long shot

866
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 1: future on Houston Super Bowl, what's a good way to

867
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 1: head it right now?

868
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, it all depends for someone like me that bet

869
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 3: that Houston one that I really thought was a joke,

870
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna let her ride, just because I didn't

871
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 3: put that much into it, Like I only have a

872
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 3: couple of thousand where that Rams wonder was a killer,

873
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 3: Like I had a lot invested into it to win

874
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 3: a lot, and like that would have been great to

875
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 3: take a position on it.

876
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 2: But you can't where this Houston one.

877
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 3: You know, if you listen to us, you either got

878
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 3: one hundred to one or a hundred and fifty to

879
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 3: one their Super Bowl odds. For me personally, like I'm

880
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna let it ride, just because I already

881
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 3: talked about like I'm gonna take Houston's money line. Now

882
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 3: I don't need to. I can just let that bet ride.

883
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 3: If I think Houston's actually gonna win, I'll let it ride.

884
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 2: Now.

885
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 3: If you want to do play it smart and you

886
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:28,279
Speaker 3: want to hedge, just bet. Yeah, there's a bunch of

887
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 3: different things you can do. Like you can play the

888
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:34,439
Speaker 3: Ravens money line right and get a nice chunk out

889
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 3: of that, cause again you have if you bet one unit,

890
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 3: you have one hundred units to play with here, So

891
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 3: you can't take a position on their money line and

892
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 3: really keep it simple. Or you can do what I did

893
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 3: last week, where like I had Pittsburgh's future, I just

894
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:48,799
Speaker 3: took the Bills money line. I payed it with a

895
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 3: team I felt for sure was gonna win, which was

896
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 3: the Chiefs. That was a no sweat and that was

897
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 3: a big winner. So that's what you can do. If

898
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 3: you're trying to eat away at the juice and take

899
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 3: a little risk your opponents, you can put these these

900
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 3: ones together. I mean I already talked about it like

901
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 3: I can't see a word while the forty nine ers lose.

902
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 3: So if you do want to hedge it. Why not

903
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:07,839
Speaker 3: do the chalkiest thing ever and just put the forty

904
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 3: nine ers with the Ravens money line. But I just

905
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:13,479
Speaker 3: I'm scared to tell you people to do it because

906
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 3: I just I like Houston in the spot. I know

907
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 3: I might look like an idiot come Sunday, but it's

908
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:20,799
Speaker 3: like we talked about, they're a live dog. Lamar's never

909
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 3: won a home playoff game. That's a real pressure. These

910
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 3: guys feel with that real pressure. So yeah, it would

911
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 3: be shocking. But me personally, because I mean him taking

912
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 3: Houston's money on, I'm just gonna let it ride. Like

913
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 3: if you if you're trying to hedge out, I just

914
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 3: gave you a couple of different things you can do

915
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 3: with it. But me personally, it was such a great bet.

916
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 3: It's such a lucky bet. Just let it ride. Like

917
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 3: Evan already talked about teams that have those kind of odds,

918
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 3: they usually don't make it this far.

919
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 2: Right.

920
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:49,799
Speaker 3: The craziest run we've had was the Bengals at one

921
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one. The year after Joe Burrow

922
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,280
Speaker 3: had a surgery on his knee at the acl fixed

923
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 3: made a run to the Super Bowl. You just don't

924
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:58,800
Speaker 3: see these gooes kind of runs. So the fact that

925
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:01,920
Speaker 3: we've had two of them now last you know, three seasons,

926
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 3: it's like definitely something to keep betting. Like you just

927
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,359
Speaker 3: clearly these things keep happening. The books are ketchup these

928
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 3: ne qbs coming into the league. CJ's one of them. So, yeah,

929
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 3: great question. You can do the Chalky money line thing.

930
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 3: But if you want, you're gonna come sweat it out

931
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 3: and ride it with me. I'm gonna ride out of

932
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 3: Houston one hundred and to one.

933
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 1: Yeah. By the way, for what it's worth, Evan, who

934
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 1: was brilliant at hedging math, basically said the same thing.

935
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 1: Simon just said, this isn't the week to hedge, it's

936
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: next week. At this point, the bet is the bet

937
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 1: and you're riding with it.

938
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 2: And it's a great bet.

939
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 1: If Houston goes next week, then you got a shot

940
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 1: next week. As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented

941
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:45,120
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952
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00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 1: Be sure to catch our next episode of The Favorites

955
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:30,680
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956
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957
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958
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:45,840
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959
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960
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961
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