1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amerie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. 10 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 3: Turning two deals TikTok, saying it reached binding agreements for 11 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 3: a new US joint venture majority owned by American investors, 12 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 3: the company's CEO telling employees agreements with Oracle, Silver Lake 13 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 3: Management and MGX have been signed. Joining us now as 14 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 3: we purse through everything that has happened in twenty twenty 15 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 3: five around the trade story is the twentieth US Trade 16 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 3: Representative missing Greer. 17 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: Representative Greer. 18 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,839 Speaker 3: I want to start on how busy twenty twenty five 19 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 3: really was Looking ahead to twenty twenty six, do you 20 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 3: expect the same kind of pace with respect to trade deals? 21 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 3: With respect to trade announcements. 22 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 4: Well, during twenty twenty five, President Trump the administration has 23 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 4: essentially reset the global trading order to move from you know, 24 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 4: total liberal trade in the United States without any cost, 25 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 4: to a new fair and balanced approach we had. We've 26 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 4: announced lots of trade deals, We've annowned lots of tariffs, 27 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 4: as you know, in the coming year, we expect to 28 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 4: finalize a bunch of those trade deals as well. You know, 29 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,960 Speaker 4: I think that the tariff plan is in good shape. 30 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 4: I think we have a lot of the tariffs we 31 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 4: want in place. You know, if there are countries here 32 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 4: and there that don't comply with their deals or don't 33 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 4: want to finish a deal, then maybe we have to 34 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 4: have another conversation. But I think the economy's booming, inflations down, 35 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 4: wages are up, weren't a really great track. 36 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 3: How much are you potentially at risk should the Supreme 37 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 3: Court overturn some of the tariffs that have been enacted 38 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 3: under the AEPA provision. Do you have something in place 39 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 3: to get those tariffs through other measures or will there 40 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 3: be a rethink about what will be put. 41 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: On and what won't. 42 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 4: Well, it would be terrible if the Supreme Court overturned 43 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 4: the case, because we have built a new global trading 44 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 4: order on the back of these tariffs and the tariff system, 45 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 4: and our trading partners have accepted it, and they've made deals, 46 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:26,519 Speaker 4: and they've accepted there's going to be some tariff level 47 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 4: to help protect US industry. 48 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 5: So it would be disaster if this was pulled out. 49 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 4: All that being said, we will do whatever we need 50 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 4: to do to make sure that we can maintain the 51 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 4: tariffs we need and keep the deals in place. 52 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 5: Obviously, we want the flexibility. 53 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 4: Of the emergency powers that Congress has given to the President. 54 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:46,640 Speaker 4: It's the most effective way to deal with it. So 55 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 4: what's made them so effective this year in negotiating. But 56 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 4: absent that, we'll work and we'll find a way to 57 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 4: make sure we can keep all these games we've made 58 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 4: over the past. 59 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:56,639 Speaker 1: Year representative career. 60 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 3: There's also a feeling right now that cost of living 61 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 3: concerns are coming to foreign President Trump has talked about 62 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 3: removing some of tariffs on specific goods, particularly having to 63 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 3: do with food, as a way of alleviating some of 64 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 3: the price concerns. How does that factor into discussions going forward? 65 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 3: Do you think that that will be an increasing part 66 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 3: of your thought process as you go through some of 67 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 3: these trade negotiations. 68 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 4: Well, any good president wants to address affordability, and our 69 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 4: president is and over the past month we saw you know, dairy, 70 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 4: you know, fruit and vegetables, all kinds of prices go 71 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 4: down for basic stables, staples. So that's a great development 72 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 4: going forward. The President removed some tariffs in connection with 73 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 4: some deals related to food coming from a broad bananas, coffee, coco, 74 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 4: the kinds of things we just don't make in the 75 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 4: United States. United States is a food powerhouse. When we 76 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 4: saw inflation earlier, it's really about housing, healthcare. 77 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 5: Driven by Obamacare disaster. 78 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 4: So I don't think that, you know, food imports are 79 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 4: really going to be an issue for us. You know, 80 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 4: the tariff program is really about creating jobs, and the 81 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 4: President's regulatory approach is really about bringing prices down and 82 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 4: bringing affordability. 83 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 6: Ambassador, have you had any specific directives from the President 84 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 6: though as you carry out your negotiations to make sure 85 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 6: any tariffs you put on from here are anyones that 86 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 6: you negotiate specifically are not having an impact on affordability. 87 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 4: So I know, the kind of the way you put it, 88 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 4: there are a specific direction I would say no, whenever 89 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 4: we're imposing tariffs are doing deals. The purpose of the 90 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 4: trade program is to reshore American manufacturing and protect American 91 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 4: food security. It's really about jobs and increasing wages, which 92 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 4: we've seen over the past few months. When it comes 93 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 4: to prices, the President is undertaking a lot of other actions, 94 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 4: you know, energy policy, tax policy, regulatory gas prices are down, 95 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 4: et cetera. So we don't see the trade policy really 96 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 4: as driving prices. We see it as driving jobs. 97 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 6: Ambassador, I'd love to go back where Lisa started, and 98 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 6: that is it looks more likely that we indeed have 99 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 6: something of a TikTok deal where US buyers will take 100 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 6: the American portion. You after some of the negotiations in Madrid, 101 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 6: we're talking about how this deal, how this company was 102 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 6: part and parcel of a variety of matters when it 103 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:11,920 Speaker 6: comes to negotiation, negotiating with your Chinese counterparts. So have 104 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 6: you had more discussions about this deal with TikTok? Does 105 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 6: it seem likely that China will let it happen? 106 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 5: So there are two layers to the TikTok deal. 107 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 4: One is the private sector layer, where the private parties 108 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 4: are concluding a deal and then there's a layer of 109 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 4: government approvals between the United States and China, and so 110 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 4: my conversations with the Chinese government over the past few months, 111 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 4: as you mentioned, have covered a variety of issues. 112 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 5: One of them has been TikTok. 113 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,159 Speaker 4: Back at our discussions in Madrid, we came to an 114 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 4: essential agreement that if the private parties came to agreement, 115 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 4: that the Chinese would approve it. 116 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 5: So we expect approval by. 117 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 4: The government of China in alignment with that agreement we 118 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 4: reached earlier this year. 119 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 3: We're hearing about not only this deal with respect to 120 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:59,359 Speaker 3: TikTok and some investors in the US, but also a 121 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:01,719 Speaker 3: review product is to sell two hundred. 122 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:03,280 Speaker 1: Chips into China. 123 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 3: And I'm just wondering, stepping back, if all of these 124 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 3: are pieces of a bigger deal that will come to 125 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 3: fruition in twenty twenty six between the US and China. 126 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 4: I would say with the h two hundred export control issues, 127 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 4: those really are standalone. That was not a negotiated outcome 128 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,719 Speaker 4: in the United States. With respect to export controls, those 129 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 4: are not something that are really subject to negotiation. Those 130 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 4: are national security and commercial decisions made by the federal government. 131 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 4: So that's kind of standing on its own with respect 132 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 4: to the rest of the China deal. Right now, we're 133 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 4: trying to make sure that rare earths continue flowing from China. 134 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 4: You know, they've bought over five million metric tons of 135 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 4: soybeans at this point, and we're trying to keep trade 136 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 4: flowing between the two countries in way that makes sense. 137 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 3: Do you expect a bigger deal other than just sort 138 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 3: of steady reset kind of idea that you've talked about 139 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 3: with respect to the US and China. Do you expect 140 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,159 Speaker 3: something more comprehensive to be outlined next year. 141 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 5: It's a little hard to say at this point. Goal 142 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 5: one is stability. 143 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 4: For me, and everyone's heard me say this before, we 144 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 4: need trade with China to be much more balanced. Our 145 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 4: trade deficit with China has decreased by twenty five percent 146 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 4: this year alone under President Trump's policy, so that's going 147 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 4: the right direction. I can first see a situation in 148 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 4: the first half of next year where we come to 149 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 4: some kind of agreement with China on exactly what we 150 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 4: should be trading with each other and even in what volumes. 151 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 4: It's a little bit of managed trade, but it's the 152 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 4: kind of thing that can be healthy and stable. Given 153 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 4: the way that Chinese government runs its economy, it just 154 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 4: doesn't mesh very well with the way we want to 155 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 4: run our economy. That just means we have to manage 156 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 4: it a little bit more. And I think there's a 157 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 4: possibility of that. I'm not sure i'd call it comprehensive, 158 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 4: but i'd call it confidence building. 159 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: I'm masser. 160 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 6: I think a lot of the confusion from many people 161 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 6: comes around national security. One of the points that you 162 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 6: mentioned just a moment ago, especially things with H two 163 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 6: hundred chips. 164 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: Giving chips to. 165 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 6: China has seen an issue of national security. Even giving 166 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 6: S thirty fives to Saudi Your what does that mean 167 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 6: for national security? Because critics would say that it means 168 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 6: that national security is up for sale. What would you 169 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 6: say to those critics? 170 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 4: So, with respect to the F thirty five, that's not 171 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 4: my I used to be in the Air Force, but 172 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 4: it's not it's not my wheelhouse. I'm H two hundreds 173 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 4: and export controls generally, export controls have always been fluid, 174 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 4: They've never been static. The very nature of export controls 175 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 4: is that the US government is constantly reviewing the state 176 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 4: of technology and assessing what technologies can be sold and 177 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 4: which ones can and balancing national security and assessing whether 178 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 4: or not there's foreign availability. Everyone knows that the Chinese 179 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 4: are quickly also trying to develop their own AI chips, 180 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,679 Speaker 4: semiconductor tools to make those chips, et cetera. 181 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,119 Speaker 5: It's a race. All of those h two hundred. 182 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 4: Approvals still have to go through the Commerce Department to 183 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:54,520 Speaker 4: make sure that any licenses that are granted really respect 184 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 4: US national security and make sure that it's not violated, 185 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 4: and there can be conditions on licenses, etc. To they 186 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 4: go to end users and end uses that don't jeopardize 187 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 4: US national security? 188 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 6: Is it fair to say, that, Ambassador that even if 189 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 6: this does go through the kind of cases where this 190 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 6: is allowed, where it's approved, will still be quite limited 191 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 6: in scope. 192 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 4: So it's hard to say at this point that these 193 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 4: types of license applications are typically a case by case 194 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 4: and reviewed. So we'll see the way it's set up 195 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 4: right now is if the chips are going to go 196 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 4: to China, they come back to the US for a 197 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:28,599 Speaker 4: security inspection to make sure that they are indeed the 198 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 4: types of chips that are being allowed to be sent 199 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 4: to the Chinese. We know there are a lot of 200 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 4: Chinese companies that want them. We know the Chinese government's 201 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 4: pretty interested in having their own domestic champions build them. 202 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,839 Speaker 4: So the Chinese themselves right now are having a conversation 203 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 4: about the types of chips that they want from the 204 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,319 Speaker 4: United States. We think that they want the Age two Hunters. 205 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 4: They've shown an interest in that. So we'll see between 206 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 4: their process and ours, we'll see where it goes. 207 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 3: It seems like the tech wars have been behind a 208 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 3: lot of the negotiations over the past twelve months, in 209 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 3: particular not only with China, but of the European Union. 210 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 3: I'm just wondering where some of those discussions are with 211 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 3: respect to some of the restrictions and regulatory investigations Europe 212 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 3: has been making toward US tech companies. 213 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:14,359 Speaker 1: Where are some of those discussions. 214 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 4: So I just had a conversation yesterday with my counterpart 215 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:23,199 Speaker 4: in the European Trade in the European Commission yesterday to 216 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 4: reinforce some of the strong concerns we're hearing from US stakeholders. 217 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 4: US tech companies are the most competitive in the world, 218 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 4: and Europe frankly doesn't have those types of competitors. 219 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 5: If you talk to the Europeans. 220 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 4: They'll say, that's why we have to regulate and have 221 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 4: these protectionist measures against US tech companies. Unfortunately, we see 222 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 4: in the way that they've developed those measures they're discriminatory. 223 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 4: They only capture companies above a certain threshold of revenue 224 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,679 Speaker 4: globally or certain business models, and magically it only happens 225 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 4: to capture US companies. They'll say that they're Chinese companies too, 226 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 4: but we only see actions against American companies. So it's 227 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 4: a problem. It's discriminatory in fact. You'll hear the European say, well, 228 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 4: it's fair, but it's discriminatory in fact and an intent. 229 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 4: So I want to talk to these folks. I want 230 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 4: to negotiate over it. They've been somewhat resistant to that, 231 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:18,319 Speaker 4: but again I had a great conversation yesterday with the 232 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 4: European Trade Commissioner, and I think we just have to 233 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:22,959 Speaker 4: be able to talk about why they're doing this, so 234 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 4: why they're purporting to regulate American companies and their global 235 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 4: business models. 236 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 3: Ambassador, coming into twenty twenty five, a lot of people 237 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 3: were wondering who are allies and who our adversaries would 238 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 3: be on trade, and we were talking about who traditionally 239 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,839 Speaker 3: have been US allies and who haven't. Have you been 240 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,440 Speaker 3: surprised and who has been most difficult to deal with 241 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty five, it has surprised a lot of 242 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 3: people in the markets to see the likes of Europe 243 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 3: be a more contentious discussion than other regions, even sometimes China. 244 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,439 Speaker 4: That's because they haven't been trade negotiators. I have not 245 00:11:56,559 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 4: been surprised at where it's been more challenging. Take India, 246 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 4: for example, who's an important partner and a strategic partner 247 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 4: in a lot of ways. We started negotiating with them 248 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 4: early in the year and we're still negotiating with them 249 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 4: to trying to find a good landing zone. During that time, 250 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 4: we have other trade partners who have come in, started, 251 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 4: proceeded with and concluded trade negotiations with US, etc. The 252 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 4: reality is somebody like Europe and frankly you know some 253 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 4: jurisdictions that want to emulate them. They know they might 254 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:27,679 Speaker 4: have relatively low tariffs compared to the rest of the world, 255 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 4: but they have non tariff barriers regulations that exclude American agriculture. 256 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 4: There's a major exports and regulations that exclude are industrial 257 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 4: exports and so you get into US, and this is 258 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 4: why we have giant imbalances. It's not because Europe is 259 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 4: really competitive, we know they're not. It's because they have 260 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 4: a lot of these rules that prevent US goods and 261 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 4: services from going into the continent. 262 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 3: Ambassador career just to finish up on Mexico, which. 263 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 1: Has been negotiating. 264 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:55,959 Speaker 3: From what we understand, they just recently gave final approval 265 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 3: to put tariffs on certain Chinese imports and a lot 266 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 3: of people are affecting there to be some sort of 267 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 3: reprieve with respect to aluminum and steel tariffs on Mexico. 268 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 3: Is there any discussion about that going on right now? 269 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 4: So, first of all, any country in the world who 270 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 4: exports steel and aluminum to the United States wants to 271 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 4: have a modification to that regime because the United States 272 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 4: for many years has been the consumer of last resort, 273 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,480 Speaker 4: and this is why the President puts steel loomed tariff's 274 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:27,680 Speaker 4: on in the first administration, the Biden administration kept them, 275 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 4: and the President has tightened them further in his second administration. 276 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:34,720 Speaker 4: Of course, the Mexicans are asking for this. We have 277 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 4: found the Mexicans to be quite constructive in some of 278 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:40,080 Speaker 4: our recent discussions and looking to change some of their 279 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 4: laws and regulations related to long standing US concerns. So 280 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,439 Speaker 4: have the Mexicans asked about this, Yes, I won't give 281 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 4: any further detail beyond that, but it's certainly something that 282 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 4: they would like to see. 283 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 2: Stay with US. Multbleenberg Savannah's coming up off. 284 00:13:56,400 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 3: To this, Osang Quan of Wells Fargo joins US. 285 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: Now. Osan has a. 286 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 3: Bullish forecast for next year in the equity space, and 287 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 3: it comes to this question of how much does the 288 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,440 Speaker 3: data even matter if you have a federal reserve that 289 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 3: is biased to cut rates at a federal government that 290 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 3: is biased to run this economy. 291 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 7: Hut, Yeah, I mean I think the set of four 292 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 7: equities into twenty twenty six is pretty favorable. I mean, 293 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 7: the prophecycle is still in a lop cycle. We're forecasting 294 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 7: fourteen percent growth EPs growth forty SMP next year, followed 295 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 7: by another thirteen percent in twenty twenty seven. I think liquidity, 296 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 7: which we talk quite a lot about, that's going to 297 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 7: improve quite a lot in Q one with the fact 298 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 7: starting to expand this balance sheet. It was a lot 299 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 7: sooner and a lot bigger than what we had previously forecasted, 300 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 7: and with that, we're going to see a huge uptake 301 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 7: in the liquid environment overall, and I think that's really 302 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 7: going to be the bullcase for equities as you move 303 00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 7: into twenty twenty six. 304 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 3: But I hear people at the television screen, this isn't 305 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 3: actually quantitative easing. This is just trying to ease the 306 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 3: technical backdrop for banks that are using the FED as 307 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 3: some sort of backstop. So how does this really increase liquidity? 308 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 3: Is this more of a boost to liquidity than some 309 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 3: people are accounting for. 310 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 7: I mean, it depends on how you define Q. If 311 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 7: Q is really about shortening duration, then it's not a Q. 312 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 7: But if QE is about boosting liquidity into the system, 313 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 7: Because the funding market was really seeing a lot of stress. 314 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 7: If you look at the SOFA spread between the sulfur 315 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 7: rate versus the fat funds rate, it blew up back 316 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 7: in October to as much as thirty five basis points. 317 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 7: So there was a real stress that we saw back 318 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 7: in October and November in the funding market. I think 319 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 7: I think that was really the main crporate for the 320 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 7: selloff that we saw over the past, you know, or 321 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 7: the volatility that we saw over the past six weeks 322 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 7: or so and looking at things like bitcoin quantum stocks 323 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 7: nonprofitable tag those guys sold off the most. And that's 324 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 7: essentially what happens when liquidity dries up. Everyone's risk curves 325 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 7: just to the left, and the assets that are farthest 326 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 7: out the riskurves, the most speculative assets, they gets all 327 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 7: the most. 328 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 1: I think we liquid are coming back. 329 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 7: And potentially condition liquid conditions overall being actually good in 330 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 7: Q one, I think speculation is going to pick back up. 331 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 1: I think I. 332 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 7: Think AI is going to AI trade is going to 333 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 7: work more in the second half the year that we're thinking, well, 334 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 7: I think the overall equity market it's going to be 335 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 7: pretty bolish. 336 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 6: Is that why you have the assumption that into next 337 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 6: year you write your research that inflation reacceleration is going 338 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 6: to be worse for equities than a recession would be, 339 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 6: because a lot of people would look at the dichotomy 340 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 6: between the two and say, inflation coming off the back 341 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 6: of COVID, equity still did well. But it's growth that's 342 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 6: really an earnings that's underpretning this equity market, and if 343 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 6: we get a recession then that would be worse. 344 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, if I have to, you know, think 345 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 7: about the probability of recession and inflation. I would assign 346 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 7: a higher probably of inflation. I'm not too concerned about 347 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 7: inflation either, because I think there's that AI productivity, this 348 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 7: inflationary pressure that's going to keep inflation pretty low. But 349 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 7: there's the physical as well as monetary policy that's coming 350 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,199 Speaker 7: back in to potentially drive inflation higher. So if I 351 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 7: have to choose, I'll say inflation has a higher potential 352 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 7: than recession. Well, I'm not overall, I'm not too concerned 353 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 7: about it either. 354 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 6: But inflation would be worse for equities than a recession 355 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:29,400 Speaker 6: would be at this point. 356 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 7: I mean, both would be bad, but I think the 357 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 7: probability of inflation is probably higher than probability over session 358 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 7: at this point because of physical we estimate about eighty 359 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 7: basis points of GDP contribution for the full year twenty 360 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 7: twenty six. Most of that is happening in the first 361 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 7: half of the year, really through the tax return, so 362 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 7: I think consumption is going to pick back off. Consumption 363 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 7: is seventy percent of the economy, so I'm not too 364 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 7: concerned about the economic downturn. 365 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 3: What's the sort of break the glass moment in the 366 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 3: yield space for equities, And I asked this, as you 367 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 3: do see longer yields globally creep up on the backs 368 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:04,719 Speaker 3: of a hawkish move from the Bank of Japan, albeit 369 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,120 Speaker 3: whatever people are thinking in the currency space, but also 370 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 3: this idea that the ECB is getting to the end 371 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,919 Speaker 3: of their using cycle. How much do you see this 372 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 3: sort of line in the sand, let's say, at four 373 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 3: and a half percent for the tenure at five percent, 374 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 3: where suddenly the book case just isn't there. 375 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think I think it's going to matter more 376 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 7: for what works within the equity market. So we're more 377 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 7: bullished on the reflation cycle into the first half of 378 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,439 Speaker 7: the year because of the physical stimulus that we're going 379 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 7: to get. But if rates climbable four and a half 380 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 7: percent or so, I think that's potentially what kills the 381 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 7: reflation cycle and potentially back into AI. I think closer 382 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,440 Speaker 7: to five percent is going to be actually pretty bearish 383 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 7: for equities. 384 00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 6: So in this pollish environment for twenty twenty six, the 385 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 6: speculative stuff starts doing well again. 386 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: Is that a healthy bull market? 387 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 6: Is that a healthy turn in the continuation of the 388 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 6: games we've seen in equities? 389 00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 7: I mean, I think, you know, the bullmarket food boollmarkets 390 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 7: typically have a little bit of speculation at least especially 391 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 7: in this AI cycle. There's there is going to be speculation. 392 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 7: It's new technology, and I don't think it's a bubble yet, 393 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 7: but I think there's a potential it becomes a bubble 394 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,159 Speaker 7: in the second half of the year, especially you know, 395 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 7: with the FED continuing with this easing cycle, liquidly being 396 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 7: more ample. And I don't think the AI trade is over. 397 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 7: I mean, there's quite a lot of concerns around AI 398 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 7: cap backs and because Hyperscalers, the market started pushing back 399 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 7: band on hyperscalars capbecs. There's CONSISTUS view is that Hyperscalers 400 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:37,920 Speaker 7: are going to moderate its capbecs and that's been basically 401 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:42,640 Speaker 7: what what drove the SEMI and the AI infrastru infrastructure 402 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 7: sell off over the past week or so. And if 403 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 7: you look at Semis over Hyperscalar Semis versus Hyperscalers, over 404 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 7: the past week, we have seen a three and a 405 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:55,360 Speaker 7: half standard deviation move, meaning hyperscalars are perform semis by 406 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 7: three and a half center deviation, and that trade has 407 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 7: been diverging. If if we start to see hyperscalers sort 408 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 7: of reiterating their capex outlook, the funding issues that Oracle 409 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 7: and open AI are having, those concerns, Get those concerns 410 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 7: ease going forward and liquidity comes bay. I think the 411 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 7: A rate is going to. 412 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:18,119 Speaker 3: Be back on. 413 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 2: Stay with us, multiple impact Survanance coming up after this. 414 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 3: Joining us now is Heidi Krebo Retica of the Council 415 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 3: on Foreign Relations. Heidi, thank you so much for being 416 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,679 Speaker 3: with us. You recently wrote a piece about how the 417 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:44,640 Speaker 3: structure of financing the European Union agrees on for Ukraine matters. 418 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 3: So what have we learned overnight when it comes to 419 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,360 Speaker 3: the structure they have laid out. 420 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 8: So, I mean there was first of all, there was 421 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 8: not a question in my mind as to whether or 422 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,400 Speaker 8: not Ukraine was going to get the financial support from 423 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,920 Speaker 8: the EU. Is just basically how they did it through 424 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 8: collective borrowing, which I think, you know, it's it's a 425 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 8: it's a step towards mutualized debt, but it's not. 426 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 5: But it is absent. 427 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 8: You know, three of three of the EU countries, namely Hungary, 428 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 8: Slovakia and Czech and so I think, on the one hand, 429 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 8: that's that's good. They came through with the ninety billion. 430 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 8: This is just from a timing perspective. I think it 431 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 8: had to happen because the IMF is finalizing an eight 432 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 8: point one billion dollar loan to support Ukraine and there's 433 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 8: a huge gap in their financing and so the EU 434 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,800 Speaker 8: really needed to step up to provide support. And the 435 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 8: ninety billion is going to go a long way there. 436 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 8: It's not all the way there, because I think the 437 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 8: gap that is projected over the next three years is 438 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 8: one hundred and thirty six point five billion, which is huge, 439 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 8: and but this is a big step in the right direction. 440 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 8: It's it also I think all over pointed. I mean, 441 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 8: it's an elegant solution in a way because it takes 442 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 8: it takes the burden off of individual countries to actually 443 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 8: provide the budget finance from their own individual budgets, So 444 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,199 Speaker 8: there is a bit of a collective shift. But at 445 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 8: the same time, it would have been a lot more 446 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 8: powerful to use the Russian sovereign assets. The This was 447 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:28,120 Speaker 8: something they've been negotiating it for a very very long 448 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 8: time and it was I believe politically a big failure 449 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 8: for Chancellor Mergen. So this didn't get done. 450 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 6: And that's something that Ukraine and Zelensky had been arguing 451 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:39,880 Speaker 6: that it becomes a powerful negotiating force if they were 452 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 6: to use the frozen Russian assets. Hiding on the other 453 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 6: side of things, the Belgians had been arguing that it 454 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:48,880 Speaker 6: would face legal retribution and just retribution in general if 455 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 6: they had used these Russian funds. Straight up, is there 456 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 6: any merit to the arguments coming from the European capital. 457 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:57,879 Speaker 8: So, you know, Belgium I think at the end of 458 00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,439 Speaker 8: the day, I just really didn't want to do this. 459 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:03,159 Speaker 8: They had a lot of popular support in not moving 460 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,879 Speaker 8: forward to use these immobilized Russian assets. And you're clear obviously, 461 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 8: you know, has the Russians just just sued for you know, 462 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 8: in case Euroclear was planning to use any of these assets, 463 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 8: even though the structures that were being discussed would have 464 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 8: taken the legal I think the legal burden away from 465 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 8: both Euroclaire and Belgium. But you know, at the end 466 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 8: of the day, this is something where Mertz was standing 467 00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 8: by himself, France and Italy went Lukewarman did not support him, 468 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 8: and Belgium just you know, pushed through and decided that 469 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 8: this was something that they that they cared a lot 470 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 8: about I'm of two minds. I think that the EU 471 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:50,920 Speaker 8: needs to move towards collective borrowing for its own national 472 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 8: security in order to be able to fund, for example, 473 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 8: its own defense. But the but for this, it just 474 00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 8: needed to get done, and it got done by Hooker. 475 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 6: What does it change, if anything? Heidi though to the 476 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,119 Speaker 6: political situation of the very highly indebted nations of France, 477 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 6: of Italy of others. 478 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 8: Well, I mean, this is going to be a burden, 479 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 8: a burden on them, and it's uh, this is ideally 480 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 8: this would have been, uh, you know, an exercise where 481 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:24,360 Speaker 8: you didn't have to have any additional any additional funding 482 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 8: coming from in particular, you know, countries like France and 483 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 8: Italy and others that are you know, that are struggling 484 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 8: for you know, from a you know that don't have 485 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 8: the headroom to really borrow or put too much up 486 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:43,360 Speaker 8: for to support this loan. It's it just it's it's 487 00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,879 Speaker 8: unfortunate because they had an opportunity to actually use a 488 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,160 Speaker 8: sizable amount of Russian of Russian funds and they weren't 489 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:50,920 Speaker 8: able to get there. 490 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 2: Stay with us multiple impax Savannah's coming. 491 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: Up after this. 492 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 3: Socks slightly higher as Wall Street looks to end the 493 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 3: week with a win, and Nastasia and Moroso of Partners 494 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,919 Speaker 3: Group writing, we don't believe investors should give up on 495 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 3: AI into twenty twenty six. The current pullback may present opportunity, 496 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,439 Speaker 3: and Astasia joins us more and a Stasia, great to 497 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 3: see you to say, very much to the holiday spirit. 498 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,919 Speaker 1: I see, yes, run the holiday spirit. I think it's great. 499 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:26,879 Speaker 1: So coming up. 500 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 3: It does feel like people over the past couple of 501 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 3: days at least have come back to this idea. 502 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:32,440 Speaker 1: Maybe the sell off's a good thing. 503 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 3: It highlights skepticism, it highlights a better entry value. 504 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:37,199 Speaker 1: How where are you on that? 505 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,440 Speaker 3: What have we seen over the past couple of weeks 506 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 3: that gives you more confidence? 507 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 1: Right? 508 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 9: Well, first of all, as you were saying, maybe the 509 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 9: volatility is normal as we get higher and higher at 510 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 9: market altitudes, so to speak. So maybe that is what 511 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,120 Speaker 9: we should be accustomed to seeing in twenty twenty six, 512 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 9: and investors scrutinize things more and investors question things more, 513 00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,080 Speaker 9: so maybe that is to your point in healthy development. 514 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 9: I do think it's nice to see the AI trade 515 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 9: pullback by five or seven percentage points over the last 516 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 9: couple of weeks. Having said that, as I look at 517 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,439 Speaker 9: you know, what's really driving the AI trade, it is demand, 518 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 9: the adoption, It is productivity, and it is monetization. And 519 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 9: when I look at all three of those categories, I 520 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:14,320 Speaker 9: see positive developments there. 521 00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 1: First of all, let's talk about adoption. 522 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:17,840 Speaker 9: You know, around the table, I'm sure are you using 523 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 9: more AI now versus what you did at the beginning 524 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 9: of the year. And if you look at kind of 525 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,720 Speaker 9: the adult population in the United States, fifty five percent 526 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,119 Speaker 9: is the percentage that use artificial intelligence today. That was 527 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,440 Speaker 9: about forty five percent to start the year. We went 528 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 9: from a ten percent adoption rate economy wide to about 529 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,640 Speaker 9: seventeen percent, So we are moving up that. 530 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 1: Adoption curve, which is great. 531 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 9: The second thing, Lisa, that I looked at the other 532 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,640 Speaker 9: day was the productivity increases. Coming into the year, we 533 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 9: were sort of hoping expecting to see the productivity gains 534 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,000 Speaker 9: due to artificial intelligence. And when I look back at 535 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 9: the last call it three years, you have actually seen 536 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,359 Speaker 9: measurable productivity gains. Productivity has been average about two percent 537 00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,400 Speaker 9: over year growth versus ten versus one percent we saw 538 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 9: in kind of the decade. You know, after the financial crisis. 539 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 9: So these are not just wishes, These are tangible productivity gains. 540 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:09,800 Speaker 9: We hear that from companies. We see that in our 541 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 9: portfolio companies as well. And then the last point, it's 542 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 9: all about the modernization and there too, whether you look 543 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,119 Speaker 9: at cloud revenues, whether you look at some of the 544 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 9: AI lms, the likes of open Ai, their revenues are 545 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,240 Speaker 9: surging and I think that trend can continue into twenty 546 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,920 Speaker 9: twenty six. So with all of that, the AI trade 547 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,400 Speaker 9: is priced better today. So I would step in here 548 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:31,240 Speaker 9: for twenty twenty six. 549 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 3: The HAI trade in pockets, right, I mean, are there 550 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 3: areas that are the winners and areas that are big 551 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 3: losers as you do see a consolidation of profitability and 552 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 3: a select number of cohorts. Right, I mean, at what 553 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,879 Speaker 3: point is the gain of some players the pain of 554 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,360 Speaker 3: everybody else? That I point to Micron yesterday doing really 555 00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 3: well because guess what, they can charge a whole lot 556 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 3: more for their chips. 557 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,159 Speaker 9: Right now, that is a really good point. It's not 558 00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 9: going to be just everybody is a winner, you know. 559 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,200 Speaker 9: It's now the tie that lifts all the boats. And 560 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 9: that's what we think about in our investmentmties. We think 561 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 9: about whether a company is going to be disrupted by 562 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 9: artificial intelligence or is actually going to be helped by 563 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 9: artificial intelligence because they're quick enough to embed it. 564 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 1: So that's one way to think about it. 565 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:11,720 Speaker 9: The other way, I would say, Lisa, we should actually 566 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,440 Speaker 9: draw the distinction between No, I don't think AI is 567 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 9: a bubble, but are there signs of bubble like valuations 568 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:19,240 Speaker 9: in certain parts of the ecosystem. 569 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:20,120 Speaker 1: Absolutely. 570 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,000 Speaker 9: I mean, if you look at, for example, the lay 571 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 9: stage venture valuations for AI companies versus not AI companies, 572 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 9: there are trading at a premium something. 573 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 1: Like two hundred and fifty percent. 574 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,399 Speaker 9: You know, it's not the case for earlier stage, but 575 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,200 Speaker 9: it is the case for lata stage. So I think 576 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,280 Speaker 9: you have to have a question mark around those valuations. 577 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,080 Speaker 9: But you know, we are finding I think winners in 578 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 9: artificial intelligence. 579 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 1: I would say in several different categories. 580 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 9: The first one is infrastructure, and the shift is now 581 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,480 Speaker 9: really sort of yes, we've done data centers for the 582 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 9: last five years, but it's really more of a focus 583 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,719 Speaker 9: on energy because you know that's the bottleneck. You know, 584 00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 9: we also think about investing in AI companies that have 585 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:02,640 Speaker 9: proprietary data, they have vertical expertise and they can leverage that. 586 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 1: That's where we. 587 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 9: Think gives them the competitive mode and the best chance 588 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 9: to embed artificial intelligence and kind of you know, invent 589 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 9: AI power services. And then the last thing is across 590 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 9: our portfolio companies, we also have a concerted effort to 591 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,600 Speaker 9: boost productivity, drive revenue growth and also enterprise value creation 592 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:20,960 Speaker 9: by infusing AI. 593 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 1: So that's where we identify the winners. But you're right, 594 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 1: you know there's. 595 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 9: Going to be lots of disruption and lots of companies 596 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 9: to avoid as well. 597 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 6: How much of the avoidance doesn't just have to do 598 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 6: with are you producing revenue? Are you being disrupted by it? 599 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 6: And maybe there is promise there, but debt loads are 600 00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,960 Speaker 6: getting unmanageable. I mean, Oracle has been the poster choud 601 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,040 Speaker 6: for this, for their spending increases elevenfold and their cash 602 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,080 Speaker 6: growth has turned into an outright cash burn. Even you 603 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 6: can pick into any company, but even if the promise 604 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 6: is big to you do, debt piles like that in 605 00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,960 Speaker 6: cash burn make it enough to make that kind of 606 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 6: company no longer attractive. 607 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,440 Speaker 9: I mean, look, once again, I think investors should look 608 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,280 Speaker 9: at Oracle and the Lakes and scrutinize anybody who is 609 00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 9: quickly taken on debt and maybe not scaling revenues. 610 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 1: Clear enough. So I do think that's a healthy development. 611 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 9: But when I think about, let's say, the rest of 612 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 9: the hyperscalers, they don't have the issue that the market 613 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:09,480 Speaker 9: is sort of punishing Oracle for. 614 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 1: They have plenty of free cash flow. They have plenty 615 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:13,000 Speaker 1: of cash. 616 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:16,640 Speaker 9: On the sidelines to finance the data center spend. So 617 00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,320 Speaker 9: and the other thing I would point out on Danny, 618 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 9: you know, going into twenty twenty six, I certainly would 619 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,280 Speaker 9: not give up on all the hyperscalers because what you 620 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,880 Speaker 9: actually see is their earning stra dijectory keeps on accelerating 621 00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 9: towards the tail end of twenty twenty six. And we 622 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 9: talk about this gap narrowing between the MAC seven versus 623 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,480 Speaker 9: the four ninety three, but that gap is actually going 624 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:40,240 Speaker 9: to wind out once again for most of the MAC seven, 625 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 9: perhaps not the specific. 626 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 6: But even for the hyperscalers, and specifically the lms the 627 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:49,400 Speaker 6: Google's Open AI. Why isn't just a Google being the 628 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 6: ultimate winner because they have the ability with their balance 629 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,640 Speaker 6: sheet to not charge for their AI models. 630 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:56,320 Speaker 1: Why not just run open AI? 631 00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,560 Speaker 6: Into the grounds with the inability of them being able 632 00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,720 Speaker 6: to produce revenue of Google just offering it for free, 633 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 6: and then once they're gone, then maybe they can turn 634 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,600 Speaker 6: around becoming monopoly. Why why isn't that the future road 635 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:07,480 Speaker 6: that this might go down? 636 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:09,560 Speaker 1: Well, you bring up a couple of good points. 637 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 9: You know, Google, first of all, has been investing in 638 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 9: artificial intelligence and working on development and developing artificial intelligence 639 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 9: for years, you know, prior to open AI. So Google, 640 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 9: by all means should be one of the winners of 641 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:24,479 Speaker 9: this AI trend. But the other point I would say is, 642 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,040 Speaker 9: you know, whether it's Google, whether it's open AI, whether 643 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:28,719 Speaker 9: it's another platform, it is about that. 644 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:30,520 Speaker 1: It is about the platforms. You know. 645 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,280 Speaker 9: I remember, you know, talking about artificial intelligence back in 646 00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 9: twenty nineteen, and the biggest winners were always going to 647 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 9: be the providers of the picks and shovels. 648 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,280 Speaker 1: Of AI and a lot of these LM models. And 649 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:42,120 Speaker 1: who's that going to be? 650 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,840 Speaker 9: Those who have the massive treasure troves of data, and 651 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,360 Speaker 9: so it's the likes of Google and Meta and others. 652 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,200 Speaker 9: So I'm not surprised to see, you know, perhaps Google 653 00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,280 Speaker 9: kind of be in the lead once again. 654 00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:54,160 Speaker 1: As I think they kind of wore back in twenty 655 00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:55,320 Speaker 1: nineteen Andastasia. 656 00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 3: There is a big discussion around if there is risk building, 657 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 3: and yes, sure is risk building, but the question is 658 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,959 Speaker 3: where most people have pointed to private markets as a 659 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 3: place of potential risk. I know you're focused on financing 660 00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 3: companies and financing infrastructure projects through the private markets. How 661 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 3: much risk do you really see building heading into twenty 662 00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 3: twenty six. 663 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 9: Right, Well, if you take a step back, as to 664 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,320 Speaker 9: back Lisa, if you think about the sheer growth of 665 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:22,440 Speaker 9: private credit, for example, it went from being a six 666 00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,680 Speaker 9: hundred billion dollar asset class to a one point seven 667 00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,320 Speaker 9: trillion dollar asset class. So by the sheer kind of 668 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,040 Speaker 9: virtue of growth that we've seen, there's going to be 669 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 9: more and more risks. And I think that's what we've 670 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 9: seen is some of these idiosyncratic headlines are representative of 671 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 9: the growth of the asset class. But when I think 672 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:42,000 Speaker 9: about it from interest coverage ratio perspective, for example. 673 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 1: Yes it is you know, dipped from. 674 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,720 Speaker 9: Where it was pre twenty twenty two, but it's actually 675 00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,240 Speaker 9: trought and is starting to improve. So the FED, the 676 00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:52,160 Speaker 9: fact that the FED is cut interest rates actually alleviates 677 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 9: I would say some of the pressure on private credit. 678 00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:56,640 Speaker 9: You know, I think what you have to look out 679 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,600 Speaker 9: for is, you know, there's been lots of money raised 680 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,479 Speaker 9: in credit. That money had to be deployed quickly, and 681 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 9: you know, in some cases it was deployed in large 682 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:10,920 Speaker 9: chunks of capital. So was it always appropriately deployed? Was 683 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:13,760 Speaker 9: it always properly covenant covenanted? For everybody? 684 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:16,000 Speaker 1: I don't know, But for us, if we look. 685 00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,600 Speaker 9: Across our prior credit platform and the US side and 686 00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 9: the European side, on average, I would say ninety percent 687 00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,920 Speaker 9: of the loans that we've done have a covenant attached 688 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:25,280 Speaker 9: to them. 689 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 1: So I can't speak for. 690 00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,320 Speaker 9: The industry as a whole, but I think, you know, 691 00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,560 Speaker 9: if you had the prudent underwriting standards, despite the growth 692 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,360 Speaker 9: in the industry, we're in a good place today. 693 00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,040 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Sevendans podcast, bringing you the best 694 00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:42,440 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, antient politics. You can watch the show 695 00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to 696 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify 697 00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the 698 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.