1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 2: Were You're keeping an eye on what's about to go 7 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 2: down at the White House because for a second day 8 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 2: in a row, it's a meeting with Congressional Republicans and 9 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 2: the newly president once more, Donald Trump. Knowing that the 10 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 2: debt cealing needs to be dealt with some kind of 11 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 2: aid package theoretically for those who have suffered from the 12 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 2: wildfires in Los Angeles. Unclear how those things will be 13 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 2: tied together. Then there's the matters of the actual legislative 14 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 2: agenda items immigration and the border, energy and tax reform 15 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: inclusive of here comes the buzzword salt. 16 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 3: Yes, that's right. What's the old line? As my dad 17 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 3: used to say, if it was easy, anyone would do it. 18 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 3: It's not easy, and no one can seem to figure 19 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 3: this out. Yet. There have been multiple meetings with Donald Trump, 20 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 3: from the Army Navy game to the UFC fight to 21 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 3: the White House, and still not sure if it's one big, 22 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 3: beautiful bill or exactly how that debt ceiling is going 23 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 3: to be managed. Tyler Kendall's trying to seek answers to 24 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 3: all of these questions and joins us live from the 25 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 3: White House right now, reporting for Bloomberg from a frigid 26 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 3: and snowy North lawn. Tyler, what are you hearing? We've 27 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 3: got another meeting set for today? 28 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, hey, Joe. 29 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 5: And actually, those three House Republicans who are here at 30 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 5: the White House set a quick high and by to 31 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:36,279 Speaker 5: us reporters in the White House briefing room before darting 32 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 5: out into the back of Those include Congressman Mike Lawler, 33 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 5: Don Bacon, and Brian Fitzpatrick, all three of whom won 34 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 5: in districts in twenty twenty four that former Vice President 35 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 5: Kamala Harris also won. So consider it to be more 36 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 5: moderate lawmakers who are going to be absolutely critical as 37 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 5: President Trump tries to kickstart his agenda in Congress, because 38 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 5: as we've been talking about this flurry of executive orders 39 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 5: that have been coming down, ultimately we know that those 40 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 5: can only go so far, and he's going to need 41 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 5: buy in from Congress to tackle some of those big 42 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 5: ticket priorities that you were mentioning. Now, how Speaker Mike 43 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 5: Johnson was asked about this by reporters earlier today on 44 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 5: Capitol Hill, and he said that Congress is trying to 45 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 5: get things going. 46 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 6: What the President is trying to do right now is 47 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 6: reset and I second guess his decisions on that. He's 48 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 6: using his executive authority because desperate times call for desperate measures. Now, 49 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 6: our role is an article one branch of the government 50 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 6: is to look through legislatively, which of these things will 51 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 6: we codify? What do we need to address it. 52 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 4: Now? 53 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 5: Those comments coming, of course after a Speaker Johnson and 54 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 5: also Senate Majority Leader John Thune were here at the 55 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 5: White House yesterday, but very few details emerged on if 56 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 5: a concrete plan or deal was made during those closed 57 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 5: doors conversations with President Trump, as we know that there 58 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,519 Speaker 5: are some disagreements on a way forward when it comes 59 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 5: to a reconciliation package and whether or not to divide 60 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 5: up priorities as Kelly mentioned at the top there when 61 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 5: it comes to immigration and energy and also a tax 62 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 5: over but Joe and Cayley, we might get more details 63 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 5: next week. It appears as House Republicans gather for both 64 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 5: a way forward but also on their messaging at an 65 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 5: annual retreat at the Trump National Golf Course in Miami, Florida. 66 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 2: Well, as we all would love to be a fly 67 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,519 Speaker 2: on the wall in these meetings, Tyler, I also wonder 68 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 2: if Republicans are bringing up with the President elect at 69 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 2: all as they discuss things that can get the requisite 70 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 2: amount of votes to pass in Congress. The fact that 71 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 2: they actually were able to pull off something by bartisan 72 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 2: in the last Congress with the TikTok divest Or Band bill, 73 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 2: and he wants to essentially extend the deadline now through 74 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 2: executive Order. TikTok obviously something high on the President's mind 75 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 2: in the last few days. 76 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 5: Right when you think about that wide bipartisan support when 77 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 5: the TikTok bill passed back in April with that supplemental 78 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 5: assistance package. We're talking about people like House Speaker Mike 79 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 5: Johnson pairing up with a Democratic leader Hawking Jeffries on that. 80 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 4: Now. 81 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 5: President Trump was asked about the future of TikTok yesterday 82 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 5: here at the White House, and he has that he 83 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 5: will prioritize national security when negotiating any potential deal. Now, 84 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 5: we do know a few weeks ago that Bloomberg News 85 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 5: did report that Chinese officials were potentially looking at Elon 86 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 5: Musk as somebody who could make that acquisition. And I 87 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 5: want you to take a listen here to President Trump 88 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 5: when he was asked if he would support Musk being 89 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 5: part of that deal, I would. 90 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:24,599 Speaker 7: Be if he wanted to buy it. Here, I'd like 91 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 7: Larry to buy it too. I have the right to 92 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 7: make a deal. So the deal I'm thinking about Larry 93 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 7: let's negotiating in front of the media. The deal I 94 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 7: think is this, And I've met with owners of TikTok, 95 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 7: the big owners. It's worthless if it doesn't get a pairamit? 96 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 5: So Trump has floated some sort of joint venture between 97 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 5: the US government and a US buy are important to 98 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 5: note that Musk would likely face antitrust concerns considering his 99 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 5: ownership of the platform X. But as we think about 100 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 5: this moving forward, we know that Trump says that he 101 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 5: will take an active role in the negotiat He called, 102 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 5: of course, Chinese President Jijingping last week and said that 103 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 5: TikTok was on their list on their agenda list. But 104 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 5: Joe and Gaily. One final thing from those comments, Trump 105 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 5: said himself that he's looking at potentially or suggesting that 106 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 5: he would download TikTok. We know, by last count, he 107 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 5: has about fifteen million followers on the platform and. 108 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,479 Speaker 2: It's bringing him the youths at least, so he says. 109 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,599 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Tyler Kenda live at the White House for us today, 110 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 2: Thank you so much and get warm as you can. 111 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 2: And Tyler just mentioned there, Joe that we do know. 112 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 2: Donald Trump spoke about TikTok with Chinese President Hijin Ping 113 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 2: just days ago. The other two items, though, that he 114 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 2: listed as being subjects on their phone call were trade 115 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,359 Speaker 2: and specifically fentanyl. And that's something else he was discussing 116 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 2: last night, that it's because of the movement of fentanyl 117 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 2: from China to other countries like Canada and Mexico that 118 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 2: he's threatening tariffs. 119 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 8: Donald three of them. 120 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:55,239 Speaker 3: Yeah, ten percent across the board here, I guess on China. 121 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 3: But he's also floated this February first date that they're 122 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:00,159 Speaker 3: going to study things. In the meantime, they'll be a 123 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 3: hard decision made by then. It's a little bit difficult 124 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 3: to tell if this is just the start of a 125 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 3: negotiation or what the endgame is You're having promised to 126 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 3: do this on day one. 127 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, so we want to get more into this now. 128 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 2: In turn to naswag Na Koktar, she is national Security 129 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,479 Speaker 2: Practice Group lead at Wiley Bryan and former Assistant Secretary 130 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 2: for Industry and Analysis at the International Trade Administration. You 131 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 2: worked on these issues in the first Trump admin and 132 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 2: here we are days into the second and welcome back 133 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 2: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Are you surprised that we 134 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,360 Speaker 2: didn't see tariffs put in place on day one? 135 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 4: Well, again, thank you for having me, and absolutely not. 136 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 4: We have a number of tariff authorities and each of 137 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 4: those authorities require a specific factual, set of analysis and circumstances, etc. 138 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:47,280 Speaker 4: So I think it's completely reasonable that Trump administration is 139 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 4: in his new appointees are about to go in and 140 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 4: some of them are in there, and they're going to 141 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 4: kind of take the reins and look at the facts 142 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 4: and look at the tariff authorities. We just the bottom 143 00:06:56,080 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 4: line is we have really so many economic distortions, from 144 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 4: subsidies to industrial policies to the exports offensanal as you mentioned, 145 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 4: it lots to take on. I think the Trump is 146 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 4: relying on his team to go in there and figure 147 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 4: out what we're going to take on for a second, third, etc. 148 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 3: Well, this would fly in the face of criticism that 149 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 3: Trump is using tariffs as a blunt object to kind 150 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 3: of go after the rest of the world. Here are 151 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 3: we to believe? Then there are teams studying these on 152 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 3: case by case levels right now, what's happening inside the 153 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 3: White House as they try to make this determination and 154 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 3: to what extent is this a kind of an opening 155 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 3: salvo the threats on the campaign trail versus the reality 156 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 3: in the White House? 157 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think it's really important to remember that 158 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 4: in the first Trump administration, right, I mean, whenever he 159 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 4: imposed tariff, there was a legal tool and there was 160 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 4: an analysis behind it, and he took those tools right 161 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 4: up to the red line, right, but he never crossed it, 162 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 4: which is why they were upheld in the courts. And 163 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 4: so yeah, there's a lot of analysis that needs to 164 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 4: be done to determine, you know, would tariffs on China 165 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 4: be justified for its exports of fensanyl and how is 166 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 4: the Chinese government supporting it? It's we know it's subsidizing 167 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 4: the exports of vensanyl and hasn't really been been shutting 168 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 4: it down. So what's the factual predicate there that would 169 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:14,480 Speaker 4: lead to the imposition of tariffs. 170 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 3: Lie, we show China our work if it comes to that, 171 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 3: if in fact that results in a new. 172 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 4: Tear absolutely so, there's a lot of it already publicly available. 173 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 4: The government is going to produce a report that will 174 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 4: justify the imposition of tariffs or whether they're global tariffs 175 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 4: on products or sceptors, through a two thirty two right 176 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 4: that the President then has to articulate what the national 177 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 4: security threat is for the imposition of tariffs. The China 178 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 4: tariffs are three on fentanyl. That's retaliatory tariffs. So all 179 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 4: of this is going to be supported by really good 180 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 4: analysis to make sure that the tariff authorities are going 181 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:48,679 Speaker 4: to be are not going to be enjoined, and are 182 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 4: going to withstand judicial scrutiny. 183 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 3: Absolutely well. 184 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 2: So when we consider the analysis here, Donald Trump has 185 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 2: suggested in recent days that for Canada, for example, we 186 00:08:57,200 --> 00:08:59,319 Speaker 2: don't need the things that are coming from Canada. He 187 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,079 Speaker 2: basically said that you can cut off business and imports 188 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 2: from Canada and no one will be the wiser. And 189 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 2: I just wonder to what extent that's really true, that 190 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 2: imports from some of these countries are easily replaceable and 191 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 2: the US can source from elsewhere. 192 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 4: So I mean, I think his point is, you know, 193 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 4: there is we're not going to be in a situation 194 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 4: where our dependencies, Remember what we learned from China, our 195 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 4: dependencies are so grave that even if we impose tariffs 196 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 4: on some things, we would be cutting off our nose 197 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 4: despite our face. And what I think what the President 198 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 4: is trying to articulate is no more the United States 199 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 4: isn't going to be on the position that we're so 200 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 4: desperate for imports from a country that we're not going 201 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 4: to be able to take critical national security measures. Right 202 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 4: there's a lot of things that for all of our 203 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 4: trading partners, including Canada, that we can make it home. 204 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 4: But you know, I will also want to underscore that 205 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 4: Canada has the largest heavy rare earth mines outside China. 206 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 4: Right there, we actually do need the Canadian supply chain. 207 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 4: At the end of the day, both countries really value 208 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 4: their integrated supply chains, are going to work to integrate it. 209 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 4: And these the these trade irritants that we have, not 210 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 4: that they're not legitimate, but both governments, I am confident 211 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 4: will be able to overcome because the trading relationship is 212 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 4: so important. 213 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 3: So when you hear Justin Trudeau say dollar for dollar, 214 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:14,680 Speaker 3: bring it on, that doesn't sound like a real response 215 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 3: to you. 216 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 4: That actually seems like the type of response that makes 217 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 4: me think that Canada really doesn't understand what we're articulating. 218 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 4: We've got subsidies, we've got immigration issues, we've got fensanel, 219 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 4: we've got the Canadian government allowing China to circumvent a 220 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 4: lot of our trade rules, including forced labor right. And 221 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 4: when we confront Canada and say, look, we're going to 222 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 4: have to impost tariffs to correct for these distortions until 223 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:42,079 Speaker 4: we negotiate our way out of them, and Canada's response 224 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 4: is no, I'm not going to work with you to 225 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 4: correct the distortions that I have in my markets. I'm 226 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 4: going to retaliate against you. That's not constructive, right. If 227 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 4: we're going to move ahead with our trading relationships with 228 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 4: our important trading partners, we have to have constructive discussions. 229 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:57,719 Speaker 2: When Donald Trump was asked about this at the White 230 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 2: House yesterday, he suggested that this is not just about 231 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,959 Speaker 2: kind of launching into a renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement. 232 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 2: But if there were to be some renegotiating on that happening, 233 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,079 Speaker 2: what would a better outcome look like for the United 234 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:11,679 Speaker 2: States in that regard? How would you tweak it? 235 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 4: Think? I think two key things that are driving the 236 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 4: United States and desired outcomes for USMCA is the rules 237 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 4: of origin. AUTO rules are the origin that's going to 238 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 4: be incredibly important. And this immense amount of not only 239 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 4: Chinese investments in Mexico that are really working for the 240 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 4: Chinese to circumvent the Section three oh one tariffs, the 241 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 4: retaliatory terrorists that we imposed on them for IP theft, 242 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 4: but also benefit from USMCA, to the point that the 243 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 4: Canadian government has suppressed trade data so the United States 244 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 4: can't determine how much circumvention is happening through Mexico. When 245 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 4: the government does that to hide the ball from US, 246 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 4: then we've got problems. Right then We've got to have 247 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:52,679 Speaker 4: a serious discussion. You're not working in an alliance with US, 248 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 4: You're working in an alliance with China, and we're going to 249 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:55,079 Speaker 4: have to deal with this. 250 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 3: We're hearing about tariffs against Russia. As Kayleie mentioned a 251 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 3: bit earlier, I don't know what is there to teariff 252 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 3: or to sanction after the last four years of all 253 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 3: of this, Where does this come down to you? When 254 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:10,440 Speaker 3: Donald Trump talks to Vladimir Putin? 255 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 4: I you know, I think it's just ultimately a maximum 256 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 4: pressure campaign. We do have a lot of sanctions on 257 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:19,200 Speaker 4: and we have sectoral import restrictions from Russia, and so 258 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 4: at the end of the day in terms of volume, 259 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,560 Speaker 4: will it really materially impact anything. No, But it's a 260 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 4: signaling too, a maximum pressure I'm going to impost tariffs 261 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 4: on you, and by the way, Putin, I can impose 262 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 4: more sanctions on you. I think it's signaling to let 263 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 4: President Putin know that the president has the tool test 264 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 4: to deploy more tools to invoke a maximum pressure campaign 265 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:43,559 Speaker 4: on Russia until it retreats from Ukraine. 266 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 2: But isn't the problem with all of this that Russia 267 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 2: to alleviate that pressure has been able to turn to 268 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 2: China is that it is actually China where there needs 269 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,679 Speaker 2: to be tighter reinforcement of what China is still purchasing 270 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 2: from Russia. 271 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 4: Absolutely, absolutely, how. 272 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 9: Do you do that? 273 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 3: Secondary sanctions? 274 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 4: Wait, absolutely, secondary sanctions, I mean China, what China has 275 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 4: been doing with respect to Iran, right with respect to 276 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:08,959 Speaker 4: hamas with respect to Russia, is inexcusable. Every single day 277 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 4: they're working to undermine our national security interests. Yet we 278 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:15,439 Speaker 4: still don't have enough Chinese company designated to the PLA 279 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 4: Affiliate DoD list on the Entity list in sanctions on China. 280 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 4: I mean, they barely exist when all of this is happening. 281 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 4: That is all of the work that the Chinese government 282 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 4: is doing in Chinese companies who are in large part 283 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 4: affiliate with the Chinese government anyway, working to embolden our 284 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 4: adversaries to the detriment of US national security interests. It 285 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 4: is just mind boggling that we haven't been imposing sanctions 286 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 4: on them much more aggressively. Seventy percent of Chinese transactions 287 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 4: are still in the US dollars, our mas. Our sanctions 288 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:48,959 Speaker 4: have real impact. Let's use them to safeguard our national 289 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 4: security interests. 290 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 3: Just to completely change the subject on you have a 291 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 3: lot of experience in Washington that we can tap here 292 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 3: as we spend some time together at the table. You 293 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 3: were confirmed unanimously in the US Senate as an Assistant 294 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 3: Secretary and Department of Commerce unanimously. There are a lot 295 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 3: of questions about some of the votes that we're going 296 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 3: to see for some of Donald Trump's cabinet nominees. What 297 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:10,599 Speaker 3: would that mean to see someone not get out of 298 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 3: committee or not actually be confirmed on the floor. 299 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 4: You know, I think there's I mean, I'm sad to 300 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 4: say that there's always a lot of gamesmanship on the 301 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 4: hill too. Even though I was unanimously confirmed, I was 302 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 4: put on hold because a senator wanted a faster imposition 303 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 4: of the steal and aluminum tariffs, and our position was, 304 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 4: don't you understand we're supportive of this. Led us through 305 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 4: so we can help accelerate this. So it's a long 306 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 4: way of saying lots of gamesmanship. I think that there's 307 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 4: points where objections aren't really meaningful objections. There's just to 308 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 4: stall and retaliate or whatever, and so we're going to 309 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 4: have to deal that. I think everybody in Washington knows 310 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 4: that this is just a game, and you're going to 311 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 4: have to now get industry support to overcome somebody putting 312 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 4: on you on hold or not voting you out of committee. 313 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 4: And everybody goes into these hearings prepared to kind of 314 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 4: play that game. And so I think that these cabinet 315 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 4: members and the officials will get voted out of committee. 316 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 4: It's just the question is how long and how much 317 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 4: effort does it take to push back. 318 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 3: Very few Americans have ever done that dance, so it's 319 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 3: really interesting to hear about NASA. Thank you so much 320 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 3: for being back with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 321 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 3: Kaylie will assemble our signature panel. Next, you have a 322 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 3: lot to talk about with Rick Davis and Gdi Shanzino. 323 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, including their reaction to an important conversation that took 324 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 2: place earlier today at Davos between Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky 325 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 2: and Bloomberg Zone Editor in chief John Mickelthwaite. Will have 326 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 2: a bit of that conversation just ahead. So stick with 327 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 2: us right here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 328 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch 329 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 330 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 331 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 332 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 333 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 2: Welcome back to Washington, where we're always keeping one eye 334 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 2: on the Newswire and another eye on the True Social 335 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 2: feed of the forty seventh President Donald Trump, who of courses, 336 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 2: in his second full day in office and on this day, 337 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 2: has a message for Russia's Vladimir Putin, taking to True 338 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 2: Social to say, I'm going to do to Russia, whose 339 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 2: economy is failing in President Putin a very big favor, 340 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 2: settle now and stop this ridiculous war. It's only going 341 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 2: to get worse if we don't make a deal in soon. 342 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 2: He says, I have no other choice but to put 343 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 2: high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being 344 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 2: sold by Russia to the United. 345 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 3: States, almost like a parrot. We can do it the 346 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 3: easy way or the hard way, he says, and the 347 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 3: easy way is always better. Question is what will the 348 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 3: borders look like? What would a peace deal look like? 349 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 3: Would it involve US peacekeeping troops? Because that's what Vladimir 350 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 3: Zelenski said to John Mickelthwaye today. 351 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 2: Indeed, our editor in chief sat down with Ukraine's president 352 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 2: at Davos and they did talk about Donald Trump. Here's 353 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 2: a piece of their conversation. 354 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,159 Speaker 10: President Trump is now on top, as they say, he 355 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 10: had a strong victory in the elections and is now 356 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:11,920 Speaker 10: taking steps directed at internal politics. The issue of ending 357 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 10: the war in Ukraine must be I believe the victory 358 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,120 Speaker 10: for Trump and not for Putin. Putin is nobody for him. 359 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 10: America is way stronger, and Europe is way stronger. China 360 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:24,360 Speaker 10: is way stronger than Russia. They are all players. 361 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 11: I remember seeing a video of you when they had 362 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 11: the talks with Putin before, when I think it was 363 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 11: Merkle and Macron were there, and to the outside eye 364 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 11: they seem to sideline you a bit that that particular 365 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,360 Speaker 11: set of talks. Do you worry that America will try 366 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:43,119 Speaker 11: and do a deal behind your back? 367 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 9: Maybe? 368 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 10: I very much believe that the US won't do that, 369 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 10: although I'm not sure that earlier this did not happen here. 370 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 10: I'm not speaking about America, speaking here also about some 371 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,239 Speaker 10: European partners. I don't know, and I'll be frank with 372 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 10: you what I know. I know, and I'm always frank 373 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,159 Speaker 10: and sharing that the fact that the US and Europe 374 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:05,399 Speaker 10: communicated with Russians on the level of intelligence before the 375 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:08,680 Speaker 10: full scale invasion and during the full scale invasion, all 376 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 10: that was in place. 377 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:13,360 Speaker 11: Trump has said that he's arranging a call with Putin. 378 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,160 Speaker 11: From what you've just said, it sounds like you would 379 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:20,880 Speaker 11: be nervous about that or are you confident that President 380 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 11: Trump will make your case. 381 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 10: I would put it in the following way. I think 382 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 10: that for all of us who truly want to end 383 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 10: the war, who want to end it fast, if that 384 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 10: is possible, for all of us, it is desirable to 385 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 10: have a plan until we have communication with Putin. I 386 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 10: believe that this is in the interest of the United States, 387 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 10: the European Union, Europe as a whole. It is in 388 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 10: the interest of Ukraine and our people. 389 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 3: Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski in conversation with John Nicholthwaite today 390 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg are editor in chief bringing forth some pretty 391 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 3: interesting headlines here in the ask for US peacekeeping forces 392 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:59,120 Speaker 3: before we even reach a settlement is an interesting stop 393 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 3: on the road here we want to hear about from 394 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 3: our panel. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano join us our 395 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 3: signature panel. Rick is partner at Stone Court Capital Republican strategist, 396 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 3: and Genie is our Democratic analyst and Senior Democracy Fellow 397 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,440 Speaker 3: with the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. 398 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 3: Rick Donald Trump is talking, he said that he would 399 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 3: end the war on his first day. Now Here we 400 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,879 Speaker 3: are on the third, of course, and he's threatening new sanctions, 401 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,119 Speaker 3: new tariffs, and taxes against Russia. Will he get it 402 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,120 Speaker 3: done well? 403 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 8: I think he's going to do something. In other words, 404 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 8: if Putin doesn't take the hint and enter into a 405 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 8: discussion with Trump, then I do think Trump will start 406 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,360 Speaker 8: to tighten up on sanctions. And there's plenty that still 407 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 8: can be done. Some of the criticism of the Biden 408 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 8: administration is he wasn't tough enough soon enough to get 409 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 8: Russia's attention. So I don't think Donald Trump's going to 410 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 8: follow that path of incremental steps. The fact that he 411 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,439 Speaker 8: is doing this right now, the very first week of 412 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 8: his administer it should be a telegram to Vladimir Putin 413 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 8: that he needs to respond in kind. I mean, we've 414 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,360 Speaker 8: already seen Vadimir Putin deny even talking to him after 415 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 8: the election, which according to Donald Trump, a conversation took place, 416 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 8: and no effort on Putin's part to take the offer 417 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 8: of peace from Donald Trump seriously up until this point 418 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 8: in time. I mean, this is more a threat to 419 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 8: get to the table. It's not a negotiation. For peace 420 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,480 Speaker 8: and so until at which point in time by the 421 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 8: Trump administration finds a way to get Vladimir Putin motivated 422 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,359 Speaker 8: to want to have that conversation. All this talk about 423 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 8: peacekeepers and what will the peace plan look like are 424 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 8: irrelevant because right now there's no counterparty to these discussions. 425 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 8: Vladimir Putin does not seem ready to negotiate peace. 426 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:57,199 Speaker 2: Well, and Genie, I wonder if that is a not 427 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,919 Speaker 2: motivating factor, a factor that could suggest Vladimir Putin that 428 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 2: he might not have to go to the table for 429 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,119 Speaker 2: some time because he knows the person who has just 430 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,919 Speaker 2: sworn in as Vice President jd. Vance, as well as 431 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,199 Speaker 2: many of his former colleagues in the Senate and in 432 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 2: the House, are not willing to continue to provide financial 433 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 2: support for Ukraine. So is there an argument that says, Okay, 434 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:18,439 Speaker 2: Donald Trump, you can threaten all you want, but I 435 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 2: know I can wait this one out. 436 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 5: Yeah. 437 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 12: That's always been the concern is the fact that you 438 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 12: have many members of Congress, and now, as you mentioned, 439 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:31,160 Speaker 12: the new Vice president, who including Donald Trump by the way, 440 00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 12: who aren't inclined to spend more money supporting Ukraine at 441 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 12: this point, And that gives Vladimir Putin. What he has 442 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:44,640 Speaker 12: always wanted and needed is the time necessary. He predicted 443 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 12: that the West, the US and its allies would tire 444 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,479 Speaker 12: of this at some point we would stop funding and 445 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 12: Ukraine would be his and so that time does benefit him. 446 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,919 Speaker 12: And I think what we also see here is Donald 447 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 12: Trump making the mistake, which is number one, you can't 448 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 12: negotiate the end to a war on social media. You 449 00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:11,719 Speaker 12: can't negotiate it. As Richard Blumenthal said via bombbast you 450 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 12: have to get the parties to a table and the table, 451 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 12: and he is not have the Ukrainians at the negotiating 452 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 12: table in a position of strength at this point. They 453 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,200 Speaker 12: both need to be there, and so he is going 454 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:29,160 Speaker 12: to undermine what he indeed wants to see happen, which 455 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,159 Speaker 12: is an end to this war quite frankly before he 456 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 12: even got into office, which was his promise, and of 457 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 12: course he didn't deliver on that. 458 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 3: Well, from that, this can be easy or this can 459 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:43,120 Speaker 3: be hard file That line was also used by John 460 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,679 Speaker 3: Thune yesterday, the majority leader in the Senate is promising 461 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 3: to keep everybody here for weekend attention. They will keep 462 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 3: the chamber in session for the weekend as Democrats try 463 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 3: to slow walk some of the confirmation votes for Donald 464 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 3: Trump's cabinet nominees. Rick, I'm sure you saw this. John 465 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 3: Ratcliffe's nomination was blocked yesterday by Chris Murphy. A vote 466 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 3: was at least even though he was approved fourteen to 467 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:13,199 Speaker 3: three in the Intelligence Committee. They've also put up some 468 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 3: procedural hurdles for Pete Hegseth and so John Thune says, 469 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:18,920 Speaker 3: you want to vote on these Tuesday, or want to 470 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 3: vote on Friday and Saturday, And it looks like based 471 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 3: on the calendar, they will have to stay the weekend 472 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,719 Speaker 3: to make this happen. Rick, you were a longtime creature 473 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 3: of the Senate. What does that tell you about the 474 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:30,760 Speaker 3: overall momentum for Trump's team. 475 00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 8: Yeah, kudos to you, know, Senator Thune, the majority leader 476 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 8: for calling a question on this. I mean, if the 477 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 8: Democrats are going to play procedural games to try and 478 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 8: slow down what has been a meteoric confirmation process, then 479 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 8: they better have good reason to do it. And the 480 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 8: other thing that Stiffen's Thune spine on this a lot 481 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,199 Speaker 8: is the threat of recess appointments. And this came up 482 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,720 Speaker 8: in the conversation as I understand it a to the 483 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,640 Speaker 8: reports that when he met with the president, President said, 484 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 8: you know, look on you know, if this doesn't get 485 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 8: going on the confirmation process, I'll be happy just to 486 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 8: recess appoint all these people. Now, if the Democrats want 487 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 8: all these cabinet members without a debate, without a vote, 488 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 8: and just put in through recess appointments, then the strategy 489 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 8: they're doing will work just fine. And if they want to, 490 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,040 Speaker 8: you know, complain about that, it's at their own doing. 491 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 8: So let the process continue. The one thing that would 492 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,959 Speaker 8: be strengthening all the normal hands of state would be 493 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 8: to get back to a regular order process and to 494 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 8: actually not be seen as slow walking initiatives. Just take 495 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 8: the vote if you've got the votes to beat it, fine, 496 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,359 Speaker 8: if you don't take the vote, and keep moving. 497 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 9: Well. 498 00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:56,399 Speaker 2: On the subject of alloming vote, Pete Hegseth Genie, the 499 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 2: nominee for Secretary of Defense, did make it out of 500 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 2: the Arms Star Serviss Committee. He was able to get 501 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 2: through that vote. A full floor vote is yet to 502 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 2: be scheduled, and in the meantime, senators yesterday received a 503 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 2: sworn affidavit from his former sister in law alleging that 504 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 2: he made his second wife fear for her safety. We 505 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 2: should note that wife says he was not physically abusive 506 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,679 Speaker 2: toward her. But do you see this as being a 507 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 2: new factor that has entered the conversation here that could 508 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 2: actually change his odds of confirmation. 509 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 12: You know, I don't think we have signs yet that 510 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,320 Speaker 12: it changes the vote. I haven't seen any signs that 511 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 12: Republicans who have been willing to go along with Pete 512 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 12: heg Seth's nomination are changing their mind. We do know 513 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 12: that this was the work of a Democratic senator who 514 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 12: felt that the FBI background check was not thorough enough, 515 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,199 Speaker 12: and of course was released to the press. But I 516 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,439 Speaker 12: don't see this changing things. But the reality is the 517 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:56,120 Speaker 12: longer this takes, the more likely material like this comes out, 518 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,120 Speaker 12: which is why of course Senator Thune wants to move 519 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,840 Speaker 12: this forward as quickly as possible and get Keete heegsas 520 00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 12: potentially confirmed this weekend. And of course the other two 521 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 12: are Tulci Gabbert and of course RFK Junior, who really 522 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 12: doesn't seem to be signs that they're moving forward with 523 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 12: their hearings at this point. They haven't been on the hill, 524 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 12: so that is another curious element of this that we 525 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,880 Speaker 12: have to watch and see what happens to those two, 526 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 12: because at this point I think Gabbert is the shakiest 527 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:31,639 Speaker 12: among Donald Trump's nominees, whether she'll get support or not. 528 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,360 Speaker 3: Of course we're watching Cash Bettel as well. Rick. He's 529 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 3: got a date a hearing set for January twenty ninth. 530 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 3: Earlier in the broadcast, we played a clip from Enrique Torres, 531 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 3: the former leader of the Proud Boys, invoking Cash Betel's 532 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,760 Speaker 3: name in an interview with Alex Jones last night. Is 533 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 3: this going to be the real fireworks out of all 534 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 3: these hearings? 535 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 8: You know, it's hard to tell. I think the thing 536 00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 8: with Cash Battell is he's been very consistent about this 537 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:05,480 Speaker 8: for four years. He was outspoken about what he thought 538 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:10,199 Speaker 8: were campaign irregularities, election irregularities. Back in twenty twenty. He 539 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 8: was the tip of the spear for the Trump efforts 540 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 8: to try and you know, overturn certain aspects of the 541 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 8: election counts. And so you know, it doesn't surprise anybody 542 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,639 Speaker 8: that he's he's the guy who's you know, in the 543 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:32,400 Speaker 8: debate now because of these January sixth, you know pardons, Yeah. 544 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,760 Speaker 2: We'll be glued to that hearing next week. Rick Davis 545 00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 2: and Jeanie Shanzano our signature political panel. Thank you so 546 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 2: much for joining us. And there's still more ahead here 547 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 2: on Balance of Power. Former House Financial Services Committee Chair 548 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,200 Speaker 2: Patrick mckenry is on his way in next Right here 549 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 550 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 551 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 552 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 1: Alma Cockley and Android Otto with the Little Birk Business Up. 553 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 554 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 555 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,520 Speaker 3: In the Nation's Capital, I really have to catch up 556 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 3: on Squid Game to see the second Squid Game. We're 557 00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 3: like the only two people you know about the first one. 558 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 3: Oh wow, you have a whole weekend planned. It's very 559 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 3: cold down here in Washington. Much to discuss today, A 560 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 3: lot of questions that we've been asking for days, weeks actually, 561 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,879 Speaker 3: when it comes to the congressional agenda, sequencing, how reconciliation 562 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:30,119 Speaker 3: is going to work, what do we do with the 563 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 3: debt ceiling At this moment, we still basically have no idea. Yes, 564 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 3: and while we're at it, and that's despite a meeting 565 00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 3: between Donald Trump and congressional leaders Republican leadership in the 566 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 3: White House yesterday. While we're at it, he's also kind 567 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 3: of making fun of Mike Johnson's slim majority, which he 568 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 3: is somewhat responsible for having tapped. I believe three members 569 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:53,840 Speaker 3: of the House Republican Conference to join the administration. Remember 570 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:54,520 Speaker 3: this from Monday. 571 00:28:55,360 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 7: Congratulate Mike Johnson for the job that he's doing. Stup, 572 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 7: We gave him a majority of almost nothing, and then 573 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 7: I said, to make it tougher on him, let me 574 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,880 Speaker 7: take two or three of the people, right, I said, 575 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 7: he'll only have to suffer with that for about three months. 576 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 7: How are they doing, by the way, are they? 577 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:17,880 Speaker 3: Is that moving along? 578 00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:24,440 Speaker 2: Uncomfortable? After I don't know what They're just saying the 579 00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 2: quiet part entirely out loud at high volume to a 580 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 2: very crowded Emancipation Hall on Inauguration Day. But we want 581 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 2: to talk more on the path ahead and the House 582 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 2: of Representatives specifically, was someone who for a brief period 583 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 2: of time actually held the gavel to control the House, 584 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 2: at least on a temporary basis, the former chair of 585 00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:43,360 Speaker 2: the House Freedom Caucus and former congress or excuse me, 586 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 2: how's financial Services Committee. It's because of the question I'm 587 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 2: about to ask you, sir, I apologize that was a 588 00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:53,000 Speaker 2: Freudian slip. Patrick McHenry, that is correct. 589 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,719 Speaker 3: My friends would have loved that, would have loved that 590 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 3: I said that. 591 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,000 Speaker 2: The question I was going to ask you is Mike 592 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 2: Johnson's problem. He has people like those in the House 593 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,960 Speaker 2: Freedom Caucus. He also has members like the ones meeting 594 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 2: with Trump at the White House as we speak, the 595 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 2: frontliners who are actually in blue districts, Congressman Lawler Bacon Fitzpatrick. 596 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,240 Speaker 2: How does he get both of those groups to agree 597 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 2: on one thing, to tally all two hundred and eighteen votes. 598 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:19,240 Speaker 3: That's the art form. 599 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,360 Speaker 13: That's the art form, and that's how you make the box. 600 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 13: What I love about the clip that you showed is 601 00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:30,320 Speaker 13: that is quintessential Donald Trump. He knows the complaints behind 602 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,840 Speaker 13: closed doors, and rather than just let those complaints fester 603 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,680 Speaker 13: behind closed doors, he's the one making the joke about 604 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 13: it and forcing the person in an uncomfortable position. 605 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:44,640 Speaker 3: To laugh about it, which is so rich. Does that 606 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:45,440 Speaker 3: cut the tension? 607 00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:49,080 Speaker 13: It does cut and also is a warning shot that 608 00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,320 Speaker 13: you can complain behind closed doors, but there are no 609 00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:55,280 Speaker 13: closed doors in this town, especially in this era. So 610 00:30:55,480 --> 00:31:00,200 Speaker 13: Mike Johnson's challenge and the House representative challenge is navigating 611 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:04,280 Speaker 13: this pathway to what is essential and what is consequential 612 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,720 Speaker 13: in the timeframe that they have and focusing those high 613 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:13,240 Speaker 13: priorities means that you can actually get that narrowband done okay, 614 00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 13: but the secondary issues are going to be more difficult 615 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 13: to get done with this really diverse Republican conference. You 616 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 13: have those three members you mentioned, Fitzpatrick, Bacon, and Lawler 617 00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 13: are in Joe Biden districts, yet one in this election. 618 00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,520 Speaker 13: If they were not members of the House Representatives, wed 619 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 13: not have a Republican majority right now, and the whole 620 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:36,280 Speaker 13: legislative agenda is dramatically different. They're at the White House 621 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 13: today making it clear that their colleagues and friends at 622 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 13: the House rather than just staying in the meeting, They're 623 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 13: going to have the meeting with the President to elevate this. 624 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 13: So members of the House and their colleagues understand they 625 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 13: need to listen to them. The Freedom Caucus has a 626 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,160 Speaker 13: dominant voice right now, and they're able to capture a 627 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 13: lot of media attention around their group that is semi unified. 628 00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,840 Speaker 13: The moderates are the ones that are unified, and they're 629 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,400 Speaker 13: unified on making sure that this is a high priority 630 00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,600 Speaker 13: economic agenda and that what we achieve on those social 631 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,040 Speaker 13: issues are things that are actually broadly popular with the 632 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:14,360 Speaker 13: American populace. And I think that is important to remember. 633 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 13: There are popular measures that Donald Trump is all about. 634 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:22,680 Speaker 13: The border policy highly popular, economic policy on taxes and 635 00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,880 Speaker 13: spending highly popular. You get into all these other secondary issues, though, 636 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,720 Speaker 13: that is where we're not going to have unity among Republicans. 637 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 3: Interesting, you know, there's a thought that Donald Trump simply 638 00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,400 Speaker 3: needs to tell them what path to take. Put your 639 00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,840 Speaker 3: foot down, tell them you've been in the Speaker's office 640 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,160 Speaker 3: when the phone rings and it's Donald Trump. Does he 641 00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 3: care enough to say, get it done in one bill 642 00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:47,120 Speaker 3: and start writing the legislation, or he seems to be saying, 643 00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 3: you know, this is what I want, but you guys 644 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,000 Speaker 3: can figure it out too, and we're losing a lot 645 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:51,320 Speaker 3: of time. 646 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:55,200 Speaker 13: Well, he recognizes it's a coequal branch of government. It 647 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:58,400 Speaker 13: is his bully pulpit that enables policy to move on 648 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,760 Speaker 13: Capitol Hill. It's his prioration that enables policy to move 649 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:05,320 Speaker 13: on Capitol Hill. But the details of that that's not 650 00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 13: his business. 651 00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 3: That's not what he does. 652 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,320 Speaker 13: It's like he has a contract lawyer, he has a 653 00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,520 Speaker 13: deal lawyer. He has a variety of people that he 654 00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,120 Speaker 13: has doing things like that. But he's going to go 655 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 13: focus on the big picture item. And the big picture 656 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 13: item here is he wants a reconciliation bill on his 657 00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,719 Speaker 13: desk as quickly as possible, with as much policy in 658 00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,520 Speaker 13: it as possible. I'll leave it to you, right And 659 00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,240 Speaker 13: so that leaving it to you. The Senate wants to 660 00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:33,000 Speaker 13: do two bites of the apple. The House wants to 661 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:37,280 Speaker 13: do one bite of the apple. Reconciliation is designed for 662 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:41,080 Speaker 13: the Senate procedure to make it easier, so the Senate 663 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 13: on one bill or two bills a year. The Senate 664 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,120 Speaker 13: can act like the House of Representatives and have a 665 00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:51,080 Speaker 13: majority vote and an act policy. It means that the 666 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,920 Speaker 13: art here is in the Senate and the Senate wants 667 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,520 Speaker 13: two bills. Trump thinks, I don't care. This is not 668 00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 13: of priority to me. I've got high priority issues, not 669 00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 13: a question of do you send me two bills or 670 00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:07,360 Speaker 13: one bill? To just get everything you can get done 671 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:08,840 Speaker 13: done and I'll be happy. 672 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 2: Well, and one of those things that they're going to 673 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:12,400 Speaker 2: have to get done. In the middle of all of 674 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,600 Speaker 2: this is at some point lifting the debt ceiling, because you, 675 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 2: as former chair of the House Financial Services Committee, know 676 00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,359 Speaker 2: what could happen if we even approached the X state, 677 00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,160 Speaker 2: let alone going over it, which we've never done before. 678 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,200 Speaker 2: How do you see that getting resolved? Knowing how difficult 679 00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,640 Speaker 2: it was last time, it was one of the precipitating factors, 680 00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:32,360 Speaker 2: and you ultimately temporarily serving as Speaker of the House, 681 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,840 Speaker 2: how do you see this falling into the legislative picture. 682 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:37,839 Speaker 13: Well, it needs to get done, it needs to get 683 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:41,640 Speaker 13: done quickly, and the longer it goes, the more likely 684 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:47,360 Speaker 13: that the president gets leveraged. Joe Biden had Democratic majorities 685 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,080 Speaker 13: in the House and the Senate. He could have raised 686 00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:52,800 Speaker 13: the debt ceiling with zero trade offs with his majority. 687 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,759 Speaker 13: They chose not to, and so they had to negotiate 688 00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 13: with Kevin McCarthy and Kevin McCarthy opened up the negotiations 689 00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:03,520 Speaker 13: the first week of a speakership and it took four weeks. 690 00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:06,480 Speaker 13: I'm sorry it took four months for it to be done. 691 00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,440 Speaker 13: And it took three months to actually get Joe Biden 692 00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,120 Speaker 13: to even egleged that he had to negotiate with the 693 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,440 Speaker 13: Speaker of the House to raise the debt ceiling. We 694 00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,879 Speaker 13: had to pull them kicking and screaming, and we did. 695 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:21,080 Speaker 13: And Democrats in the final bit of negotiations with the 696 00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,360 Speaker 13: White House, I was in a meeting and one of 697 00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:28,120 Speaker 13: the Democratic negotiators said, there is nothing in this for Democrats. 698 00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:32,160 Speaker 13: I said, yes, that's the point we are driving. Republicans 699 00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,600 Speaker 13: are driving the policy making well. What Senate for us 700 00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,640 Speaker 13: raising the debt ceiling and avoiding default. So we had 701 00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:41,759 Speaker 13: spending cuts paired with changes to the social safety net, 702 00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:45,400 Speaker 13: entitlement reform, and regulatory changes that make it easier and 703 00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,360 Speaker 13: faster to build in America. These are popular things that 704 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,040 Speaker 13: we leveraged in the debt ceiling and drew the Biden 705 00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:55,320 Speaker 13: administration along with Trump. What the Democratic members of the 706 00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:57,520 Speaker 13: House and Senate want to do for their votes is 707 00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,600 Speaker 13: to raise spending, to increase spending. That is not as 708 00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,319 Speaker 13: popular as cutting spending in America today, and that is 709 00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:06,560 Speaker 13: not commensurate with the presence commitment to the American people. 710 00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:10,400 Speaker 13: So the longer this draws out, the more likely the 711 00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,520 Speaker 13: Democratic members get their leverage point to raise spending. 712 00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:13,719 Speaker 10: Well. 713 00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:17,239 Speaker 2: And Donald Trump suggested the fires in Los Angeles make 714 00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,120 Speaker 2: this whole thing easier. Do you see that as being 715 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,920 Speaker 2: realistic leverage? That that's how you get the Democratic votes 716 00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:26,239 Speaker 2: by essentially withholding emergency aid in lists. 717 00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,279 Speaker 3: Let's not withholding right now. 718 00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:33,040 Speaker 13: Congress still needs to appropriate for hurricane damage in the 719 00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,840 Speaker 13: flooding in the southeast that is not yet done. That 720 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 13: was unfinished business of November and December of last year. 721 00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:47,120 Speaker 13: So naturally, with a massive damage and around Los Angeles 722 00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:51,719 Speaker 13: with these wildfires, we need a disaster Aid supplemental bill. 723 00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:56,680 Speaker 13: It would fit to attach the dead ceiling to that 724 00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,520 Speaker 13: measure to get it done quickly. It would fit to 725 00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,320 Speaker 13: attach to the reconciliation bill to get it done quickly. 726 00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:04,120 Speaker 13: It would fit for it to be a part of 727 00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:08,160 Speaker 13: the government funding bill that with government funding running out 728 00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,080 Speaker 13: and in a couple of weeks, all those things fit 729 00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:14,719 Speaker 13: with the debt ceiling. It's just a question of executing 730 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,480 Speaker 13: in a timely way and for the leadership in the 731 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,360 Speaker 13: House in the Senate to make that decision. 732 00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 3: Maybe not withholding it, but using it as leverage. I 733 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,479 Speaker 3: think is where Kayley was going here, right. Donald Trump 734 00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:25,520 Speaker 3: said last night when he was asked did you reach agreement? 735 00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:27,239 Speaker 3: It said pretty much, a lot of Demos are going 736 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,600 Speaker 3: to be asking for help. We're going to take care 737 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,160 Speaker 3: of la. The Speaker of the House echoed that sentiment 738 00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,080 Speaker 3: on Fox News last night that you put these together 739 00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:37,000 Speaker 3: here and well, Democrats are going to have to vote 740 00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:38,799 Speaker 3: to raise the debt ceiling or whatever else it might 741 00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,880 Speaker 3: be attached to. You're from North Carolina, Your state was 742 00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:43,600 Speaker 3: hit pretty hard by some of those storms. Is that 743 00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,279 Speaker 3: just the way things work in Washington? You comfortable with 744 00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:46,920 Speaker 3: that construction? 745 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,520 Speaker 13: Well, you think that it's leveraging Democratic members to vote 746 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:54,760 Speaker 13: for bills that the Democratic members normally vote for. Democrat 747 00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,600 Speaker 13: members of the House are accustomed to voting to raise 748 00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:59,560 Speaker 13: the debt ceiling without any pay for, so then there's 749 00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:04,280 Speaker 13: they're customer voting for government funding bills as well. House 750 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,239 Speaker 13: Republicans have a much more difficult time much. It's much 751 00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,279 Speaker 13: more a challenged vote for a Republican to vote for 752 00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,920 Speaker 13: government spending, even if it is less government spending. They 753 00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,279 Speaker 13: have a very difficult time talking to their constituents about 754 00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,919 Speaker 13: it and to say, yeah, I did vote to fund 755 00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,800 Speaker 13: the government, but I'm funding it at a lower level. 756 00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:24,279 Speaker 13: We are saving money, And they said, well, how are 757 00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:27,200 Speaker 13: you saving money by spending money, because we're not going 758 00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:27,640 Speaker 13: to turn. 759 00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:28,520 Speaker 3: The lights out on the government. 760 00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,000 Speaker 13: And it's harder for Republicans to articulate that it is 761 00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:36,200 Speaker 13: a jam up vote if you attach anything to disaster 762 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:41,280 Speaker 13: supplemental bills. But disaster supplemental bills always have something attached 763 00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,600 Speaker 13: to it, and there is no pure vote in the 764 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:48,640 Speaker 13: House or the Senate in any era of Congress, but 765 00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:49,919 Speaker 13: especially not right now. 766 00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:53,080 Speaker 2: I want to switch gears here because you obviously spent 767 00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:54,800 Speaker 2: a lot of time in Congress. In your time in 768 00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:58,120 Speaker 2: Congress working on crypto specifically, and we have now learned 769 00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,440 Speaker 2: that Hester Purs, Commissioner at the SEC, is going to 770 00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,640 Speaker 2: be leading a new task force on this at the 771 00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:07,000 Speaker 2: Commission on Digital Asset Regulations. We knew this administration was 772 00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:08,800 Speaker 2: going to be taking a different tact than the prior 773 00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:11,240 Speaker 2: one on crypto. But what do you expect to see 774 00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:15,359 Speaker 2: out of this SEC, in particular in the absence of 775 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,440 Speaker 2: market structure legislation happening before here. 776 00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:19,600 Speaker 13: Well, there are things that the agency can do, and 777 00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:25,120 Speaker 13: Commissioner Purse is steeped in understanding of securities law really 778 00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:30,440 Speaker 13: deeply understands a crypto and digital assets and understands what 779 00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,000 Speaker 13: is in the art of the possible under current laws 780 00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:36,320 Speaker 13: for the Serious Exchange Commission, it makes complete sense for 781 00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:40,399 Speaker 13: hester person to run this deep look at this deep dive, 782 00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:43,560 Speaker 13: and it's needed. It is about a decade past due 783 00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:49,520 Speaker 13: in fact now absent Congress legislating though for a market 784 00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:51,719 Speaker 13: structure built, you're still going to have this divide in 785 00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:54,239 Speaker 13: this rub between the Series' Exchange Commission and the CFTC 786 00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,600 Speaker 13: of what is a digital asset, what is a digital commodity, 787 00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,960 Speaker 13: what is a digital security? How do you find those things? 788 00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,759 Speaker 13: And there's there are clear things that need to change 789 00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:07,400 Speaker 13: under law for the CFTC to have spot market authority 790 00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:13,400 Speaker 13: so they can properly regulate a crypto native marketplace. So 791 00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,120 Speaker 13: there's things that Congress still has to do, but the 792 00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:21,280 Speaker 13: agency should be fast at work and prioritize very important things, 793 00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,799 Speaker 13: especially starting with custody, so that people that think they 794 00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,759 Speaker 13: own crypto in fact do own crypto and it can 795 00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:33,239 Speaker 13: stand alongside similar assets and they're protected from bankruptcy proceedings 796 00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:36,320 Speaker 13: and things like that are not really partisan. They became 797 00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:40,280 Speaker 13: partisan because of Gary Gensler's regime at the Securities Exchange 798 00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:43,040 Speaker 13: Commission and because of a statement they're trying to make 799 00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:47,080 Speaker 13: about crypto absent that there's some reasonable things the SEC 800 00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:50,040 Speaker 13: should should be about. And I think Commissioner Purse will 801 00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:50,840 Speaker 13: find those things. 802 00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:52,680 Speaker 3: We have less than a minute, so you're saved by 803 00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,880 Speaker 3: the bell. Does trump coin show, by the way, blania 804 00:40:55,960 --> 00:41:02,600 Speaker 3: coin help to delegitimize serious. 805 00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:05,160 Speaker 13: Look meme coins are they have another handle for him? 806 00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:06,319 Speaker 13: Another four letter word? 807 00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:08,520 Speaker 3: I heard about that. Yeah, okay, I think that's your answer. 808 00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:10,879 Speaker 3: Can't say it on the air, And yeah, I'm trying 809 00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:11,480 Speaker 3: to hold back. 810 00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:15,640 Speaker 13: But all these meme coins really undermine what I think 811 00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,160 Speaker 13: of is what is digital properties that can make a 812 00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:22,080 Speaker 13: huge difference over the long term. But people buy it? 813 00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:23,319 Speaker 3: Yeah, who are interested in it? 814 00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:26,640 Speaker 13: And I wasn't into beanie babies, but perhaps this is 815 00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:27,720 Speaker 13: digital beanie babies. 816 00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:31,399 Speaker 3: Former chair of the House Financial Services Committee, he held 817 00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:34,600 Speaker 3: the speaker's gavel. That's Patrick McHenry with us at the table. 818 00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,279 Speaker 3: He never ran the Freedom Caucus. Come back and see 819 00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:39,959 Speaker 3: us soon with hilly lines. I'm Joe Matthew. It's all good. 820 00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:40,880 Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg. 821 00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,799 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 822 00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,960 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 823 00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:53,279 Speaker 1: apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 824 00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:56,359 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 825 00:41:56,360 --> 00:42:00,120 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played bloom Were 826 00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:00,560 Speaker 1: at eleven. 827 00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:06,480 Speaker 3: Donald Trump making news on the war in Ukraine, telling 828 00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:10,359 Speaker 3: Vladimir Prutin to end the war or face a new 829 00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:17,080 Speaker 3: wave of punitive measures, think tariffs, taxes, sanctions. What is 830 00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:21,319 Speaker 3: there left to sanction? You ask, We will seek answers here, 831 00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:24,719 Speaker 3: as he writes on Truth Social we could do it 832 00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:28,640 Speaker 3: the easy way or the hard way, and the easy 833 00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:33,240 Speaker 3: way is always better. Now. This comes against the backdrop 834 00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,879 Speaker 3: of a conversation with President Zelenski himself of Ukraine here 835 00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,000 Speaker 3: today on Bloomberg. This is something you will not hear 836 00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:42,719 Speaker 3: anywhere else, generating the headline US must be part of 837 00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:47,960 Speaker 3: Ukraine peacekeeping Force, part of his conversation with Bloomberg's editor 838 00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,160 Speaker 3: in chief John Micklethwaite. Let's listen. 839 00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:55,680 Speaker 9: It's great if we will have troops, but we have 840 00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:57,719 Speaker 9: to understand that the troops will not be in the 841 00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:03,560 Speaker 9: center of the capital. Yes, they will not have relaxed time. Yes, 842 00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:08,160 Speaker 9: it's it's very important because I heard them some allies 843 00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:10,640 Speaker 9: said that, yes, But it's okay. We can be in 844 00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:14,080 Speaker 9: the center of some city and no, no, no, we 845 00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:18,480 Speaker 9: don't need such contingent contingents. No no, yes without without 846 00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:23,120 Speaker 9: without with our people. Of course, yes, because this means 847 00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:27,520 Speaker 9: security and and that's it. So, but it can't be. 848 00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:31,320 Speaker 9: It can't be without the United States. I will explain 849 00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:35,080 Speaker 9: you why even if some European friends think that it 850 00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:38,120 Speaker 9: can be, No, it will not be. First of all, 851 00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:46,480 Speaker 9: nobody will risk without the United States. The second, that's 852 00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:52,080 Speaker 9: what can divide. Need to divide EU and USA. That 853 00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:56,240 Speaker 9: is a goal and dream of putting to divide this unity. 854 00:43:56,600 --> 00:44:01,960 Speaker 11: You mentioned China. How important is in these negotiations. I mean, 855 00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:04,600 Speaker 11: China is the backer of Russia. They seem to have 856 00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:09,440 Speaker 11: had an impact on things like Putin not using nuclear weapons. 857 00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:14,080 Speaker 11: Those are the things. Can China push Putin? And do 858 00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:15,960 Speaker 11: you have any contact with the Chinese? 859 00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,759 Speaker 9: I had some contacts with the Shin Jipin. We had 860 00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:25,000 Speaker 9: phone call during the war, not to watch not enough. 861 00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:30,720 Speaker 9: I think yes, he can push Putin to piece. 862 00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:31,640 Speaker 3: I'm sure. 863 00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:37,800 Speaker 9: I think that only President Trump is strongest and shin Zimpion. 864 00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:41,360 Speaker 9: I think that there's no other allies who can really 865 00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:45,759 Speaker 9: do it. Yes, because his economy put in after sans 866 00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:48,480 Speaker 9: everything depends very much of China. 867 00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:52,480 Speaker 11: You would like Donald Trump and of China to work 868 00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:56,600 Speaker 11: together to h I think yes, yes, but not without us. 869 00:44:57,200 --> 00:44:57,960 Speaker 9: It's important. 870 00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:03,799 Speaker 3: Ukrainian President Volama Zolenski in conversation with John Mickelthwaite, our 871 00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:07,200 Speaker 3: editor in chief here at Bloomberg they met in Davos. 872 00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:11,759 Speaker 3: Pretty remarkable language coming from Zelensky at a very important 873 00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:15,920 Speaker 3: point here in its struggle against the Russian invasion. It 874 00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:21,040 Speaker 3: can't be done without the United States. The enduring headline 875 00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:24,840 Speaker 3: as we bring in the voice of experience in Kurt Volker. 876 00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:27,319 Speaker 3: I'm glad to say the ambassador is back with us here, 877 00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:31,120 Speaker 3: former US Ambassador to NATO, former US Special Representative for 878 00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:35,640 Speaker 3: Ukraine negotiations, back at another critical time twenty seventeen, twenty nineteen. 879 00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:38,640 Speaker 3: Mister ambassador, welcome back to Bloomberg. It's great to see 880 00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:40,279 Speaker 3: you here. I'd like to just back up to where 881 00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:42,840 Speaker 3: we started and what we heard from Donald Trump today, 882 00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,200 Speaker 3: threatening new sanctions and tariffs against Russia. He said he 883 00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,600 Speaker 3: would end this war on day one, and he was 884 00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:50,200 Speaker 3: asked about it. He said, well, I've only had a 885 00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:53,880 Speaker 3: half day. Do you take seriously this attempt to end 886 00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:54,440 Speaker 3: the conflict. 887 00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:55,719 Speaker 7: I do. 888 00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:56,680 Speaker 9: I do. 889 00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:59,640 Speaker 14: And if you listen to what you read out at 890 00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:03,280 Speaker 14: the beginning of this segment here where Trump is tweeting 891 00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,600 Speaker 14: to Vladimir Putin, you can do this easy way, or 892 00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:08,560 Speaker 14: you can do this the hard way, and the easy 893 00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:12,160 Speaker 14: way is always better. This is very, very smart. It 894 00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:16,120 Speaker 14: is doing exactly what he should do to demonstrate that 895 00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:19,200 Speaker 14: he is in a stronger position than Putin, that he 896 00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:22,440 Speaker 14: wants to end the war. He knows the only reason 897 00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:24,759 Speaker 14: there's a war is because Putin is causing the war 898 00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:29,560 Speaker 14: and he wants it to stop. And giving Putin an opportunity, Okay, 899 00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:32,000 Speaker 14: you come to a table, you figure this out, you 900 00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:35,080 Speaker 14: end this war. We're going to do this. I think 901 00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:38,560 Speaker 14: that Trump is exactly on point here. I was very 902 00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:43,080 Speaker 14: disappointed to hear President Zelensky just now because he missed 903 00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:47,040 Speaker 14: a great opportunity to say nothing. Trump is doing exactly 904 00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:50,360 Speaker 14: the right thing here of putting the pressure on Vladimir Putin, 905 00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:53,440 Speaker 14: say you end the war. It's not the time to 906 00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:55,799 Speaker 14: be making demands, to be saying the US has to 907 00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:58,880 Speaker 14: be present on the ground, to be defining in advance 908 00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:02,040 Speaker 14: what a detern force in Ukraine needs to look like 909 00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:06,480 Speaker 14: it is time to align with President Trump and end 910 00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:08,520 Speaker 14: the war. That's what we need to be focused on. 911 00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:12,239 Speaker 3: Well, that's fascinating to hear you say all of that. 912 00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:17,200 Speaker 3: And when you envision the future map of Ukraine, are 913 00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:20,799 Speaker 3: the borders in place where lines have been drawn? Now? 914 00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:25,320 Speaker 14: Yes, So here's the way I think of this. Ukraine's 915 00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:30,120 Speaker 14: international borders were recognized by the entire world, were recognized 916 00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:34,560 Speaker 14: by Russia in the nineteen nineties. They were confirmed by 917 00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:37,880 Speaker 14: Russia in the Budapest Memorandum of nineteen ninety four. So 918 00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:43,600 Speaker 14: those are Ukraine's international borders. Russia temporarily occupies about eighteen 919 00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:48,920 Speaker 14: percent of Ukrainian territory. That's unacceptable, and I think we 920 00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:52,560 Speaker 14: can say that we disagree, and Ukraine can say they 921 00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:55,160 Speaker 14: do not accept Russia's occupation. They can even put it 922 00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:57,879 Speaker 14: in their constitution that they should get these territories back. 923 00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:00,919 Speaker 14: A different issue is where whether you have a war 924 00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:05,120 Speaker 14: over that right now, Putin should not want a war. 925 00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:08,040 Speaker 14: As Trump has said, he's in a very bad position. 926 00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:12,000 Speaker 14: He's destroyed Russia, he's destroyed their military forces. He needs 927 00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:15,160 Speaker 14: to stop it. Ukraine is in a bad position as well. 928 00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:18,480 Speaker 14: They can't take these territories back militarily, so we can 929 00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:20,879 Speaker 14: have a long term dispute, very much as we had 930 00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:24,160 Speaker 14: with West Germany and East Germany, where West Germany had 931 00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:26,960 Speaker 14: it in its constitution about the unification of all the 932 00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:31,239 Speaker 14: Germans and they didn't unify until forty years later when 933 00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:34,960 Speaker 14: East Germany fell apart and became part of modern Germany. 934 00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:38,000 Speaker 14: Same thing with the Baltic States. They were occupied by 935 00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:40,239 Speaker 14: the Soviet Union for forty years, but they got their 936 00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:44,160 Speaker 14: freedom back and now they're again independent sovereign states, part 937 00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:46,960 Speaker 14: of the EU, part of NATO. So that's the way 938 00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:49,880 Speaker 14: to look at the territorial question. But the first step 939 00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:53,640 Speaker 14: here is what Trump is focused on, is end the war. 940 00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:59,960 Speaker 3: It's interesting to hear Zelensky appeal to not only Donald 941 00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:04,160 Speaker 3: Trump but Shesian Ping for assistance here. And I wonder, 942 00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,040 Speaker 3: if you close your eyes, can you see a Yalta 943 00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:11,319 Speaker 3: conference with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Xesian ping? How does 944 00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:13,520 Speaker 3: this end? What formed are these tops tas? 945 00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:15,920 Speaker 14: That would be a nightmare. That would be a nightmare 946 00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:18,520 Speaker 14: if my eyes were closed, and that's what I saw, 947 00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:22,040 Speaker 14: I'd be having a nightmare that there is no reason 948 00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:25,560 Speaker 14: to be talking with Vladimir Putin about things that he 949 00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:29,240 Speaker 14: should have no say over, and the future of Ukraine 950 00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:32,480 Speaker 14: as an independent sovereign state, whether they joined the EU, 951 00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:35,880 Speaker 14: whether they join NATO, whether there is any kind of 952 00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:39,759 Speaker 14: foreign military presence on their territory. All of these things 953 00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:41,759 Speaker 14: are up to Ukraine, They're not up to Russia. So 954 00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:44,680 Speaker 14: we should not be negotiating about that. What we should 955 00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:48,000 Speaker 14: be doing is exactly what President Trump is doing, which 956 00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:51,439 Speaker 14: is sending a signal that we have plenty of time, 957 00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:54,560 Speaker 14: plenty of capability, plenty of will, and this is not 958 00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:57,080 Speaker 14: going well for Vladimir Putin, so he needs to end 959 00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:00,400 Speaker 14: the war. That's it just ended, and then the we 960 00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:03,240 Speaker 14: can move on from there. As for China, you mentioned 961 00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,719 Speaker 14: that I think China has played a mixed role here. 962 00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:10,560 Speaker 14: I don't buy the assessments that China is fully in 963 00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:15,440 Speaker 14: Russia's court. They have not provided direct military aid to Russia. 964 00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:19,640 Speaker 14: They probably want to take part in reconstruction in Ukraine. 965 00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:24,120 Speaker 14: They do not like the comparison of Russia attacking a sovereign, 966 00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:28,680 Speaker 14: independent country and taking territory, as compared to China with 967 00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:32,839 Speaker 14: their efforts to retake Taiwan, which they see is very 968 00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:37,120 Speaker 14: different from a legal perspective. So I think China is 969 00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:39,920 Speaker 14: uncomfortable with Russia's behavior. They'd like to see it end 970 00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:42,279 Speaker 14: as well, and they'd like to be positioned to have 971 00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:45,840 Speaker 14: a relationship with Ukraine. So I think that Zelenski is 972 00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,279 Speaker 14: actually smart to make a little bit of an appeal. 973 00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:48,759 Speaker 4: To she as well. 974 00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:53,200 Speaker 3: I've only got about a minute left, Ambassador. If indeed 975 00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:56,520 Speaker 3: we're looking at the lines that we're going to have, 976 00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:59,360 Speaker 3: at least in the initial phases of a ceasefire or 977 00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:03,000 Speaker 3: negotiated settlement, here, should we expect a settlement to include 978 00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:06,320 Speaker 3: NATO peacekeeping forces along Ukraine's eastern border. 979 00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:10,719 Speaker 14: I don't think that's the way to think of it. 980 00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:13,319 Speaker 14: We're not there yet. I don't think anyone has given 981 00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:16,800 Speaker 14: this serious thought. I think putting Western forces along a 982 00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:20,200 Speaker 14: ceasefire line facing Russian forces is not the way to go. 983 00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:24,440 Speaker 14: I think there are many, many, many more Ukrainian forces 984 00:51:24,440 --> 00:51:26,960 Speaker 14: that are capable of holding a line, and what we 985 00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:30,320 Speaker 14: need is a presence in Ukraine as a deterrent force 986 00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:34,160 Speaker 14: to deter Russia from further attacks aim at taking over Ukraine. 987 00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:37,000 Speaker 14: And they could be anywhere in Ukraine, and they could 988 00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:41,440 Speaker 14: participate in different roles such as air cover, air defense, 989 00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:43,960 Speaker 14: including ground based air defense. 990 00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:46,319 Speaker 3: They could be doing a lot to. 991 00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:50,520 Speaker 14: Work with train support, equip empower Ukrainian forces who are 992 00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:53,560 Speaker 14: already very capable and can hold a front line with 993 00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:56,080 Speaker 14: that kind of support. So I would look at it 994 00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:58,520 Speaker 14: more as a deterrence force. I look at it as 995 00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:01,640 Speaker 14: a stepping stone to Ukraine NATO membership. We may not 996 00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:03,279 Speaker 14: get there in a day, but we can get there 997 00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:05,319 Speaker 14: over time. And I look at this as a way 998 00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:08,879 Speaker 14: of stabilizing Europe again, because as long as Putin thinks 999 00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:11,600 Speaker 14: he has more to gain, he'll keep fighting. And what 1000 00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:13,879 Speaker 14: we need to do is convince Putin there's nothing left 1001 00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:14,480 Speaker 14: to gain here. 1002 00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:18,400 Speaker 3: Always learned something when we talk to Kurt Volkler, ambassador, 1003 00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:21,040 Speaker 3: thank you. It's great to have you back. He's worked 1004 00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:25,120 Speaker 3: for Democrats and Republicans, former Special Representative for Ukraine negotiations, 1005 00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:28,440 Speaker 3: and the Trump administration is Ambassador to NATO in the 1006 00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:35,040 Speaker 3: second Obama term. Make that the first. Thanks for listening 1007 00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:38,360 Speaker 3: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe 1008 00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:41,080 Speaker 3: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you 1009 00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:43,919 Speaker 3: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every 1010 00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:48,160 Speaker 3: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at bloomberg dot com.