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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're up for running a game, so smooge,

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Speaker 1: so sweet splidd sisting just glorious execution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent.

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Speaker 3: Of the time. How shot with that shop with mind

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Speaker 3: bog buddy, And that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody pict them. God shut up, I'm trying the one.

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Speaker 3: It's left to one, the wide eyed drill biffuge, How

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Speaker 3: old earth pick that happens? Hello everybody, and welcome to Wondergold,

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Speaker 3: the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 3: your host today BJ Cunningham, alongside my co host and

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Speaker 3: friend Anthony Dubundo. Michael Leewoff will be back for the

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Speaker 3: next episode, but we are talking second leg of the

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Speaker 3: Champions League, Europa League and even a little europe Conference League.

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Speaker 3: So we're going to start in chronological order here. First up,

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Speaker 3: on Tuesday, three pm Eastern time, Virial hosting Liverpool. Liverpool

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Speaker 3: is minus one forty five road favorite. Vireal is sitting

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Speaker 3: at plus three seventy with the draw at plus three hundred.

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Speaker 3: Liverpool has taken a two nothing advantage after the first

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Speaker 3: leg at Anfield and they're now minus six thousand to advance,

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Speaker 3: while vi Areal is sitting at sixteen hundred. That first

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Speaker 3: leg was very interesting. I wasn't that encouraged at all

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Speaker 3: by Virial's performance. They tried to essentially do the same

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Speaker 3: game plan that they did against Bayern Munich, but they

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Speaker 3: just ran into a much better version of Bayern Munich.

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Speaker 3: But Anthony, I'm very interested to get your thoughts on

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Speaker 3: what you thought Vireal struggled with or really what they

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Speaker 3: didn't do well in the first leg, and then what

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Speaker 3: do you think they need to do in the second

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Speaker 3: leg to any shot of getting back in this tie.

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Speaker 2: I thought they defended pretty well, really, you know. The

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Speaker 2: first half, Liverpool had twelve shots point seven ish x G.

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Speaker 2: There was a couple of chances Thiago hits the post

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Speaker 2: from outside the box, Mane had the slip before he

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Speaker 2: was able to really get a shot off there.

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Speaker 4: So I thought Viria defended well.

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Speaker 2: But at a certain point you need to have some

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Speaker 2: kind of counterattack, you have to generate more than one shot,

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Speaker 2: and they just never really looked like they had anywhere

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Speaker 2: near a chance of not even just scoring, but creating

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Speaker 2: a chance or two or even a half chance. You know,

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Speaker 2: I was expecting Virial to get more looks, to get

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Speaker 2: in behind. Even if they get caught off sides a

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Speaker 2: little bit, maybe they would take some chances there. They

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Speaker 2: just couldn't get through. And I think that's really a

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Speaker 2: classic example of the difference between Liverpool and Buyern. Byron

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Speaker 2: was one of the great pressing teams. They won the

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Speaker 2: Champions League. They had this guy named Thiago in the midfield.

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Speaker 2: In twenty twenty, Thiago played for Liverpool. Now he's really good.

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Speaker 2: I Fibinho one of the best defense midfielders in the world.

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Speaker 2: Van Dijck all these guys are just better than what

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Speaker 2: Byron was offering. And Virial didn't really have an answer.

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Speaker 2: And I don't really know what they do in attack

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Speaker 2: to change that. I thought they had decent You know,

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Speaker 2: they have good ball playing, technical passing players, whether it's

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Speaker 2: their center backs or they're passing defensive midfielders or even

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Speaker 2: the wingers like Chique is a.

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Speaker 4: They have the ability to do it. But the question is,

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Speaker 4: you know, is Liverpool's press as good on the road

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Speaker 4: is Liverpool have their foot off the gas up two?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 4: Those are really the betting questions that I'm most interested in.

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Speaker 4: I'll be maybe looking at.

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Speaker 2: Some props here, but I can't get there on the

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Speaker 2: number I was hoping to get viri ol plus one

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Speaker 2: at like minus one ten minus one hundred, I probably

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Speaker 2: would have fired, just because I think Liverpool have played.

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Speaker 2: They've They've been up in both of their knockout matches.

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Speaker 2: They were up two goals in both matches and they

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Speaker 2: kind of just cruised failed to cover the spread both matches,

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Speaker 2: lost to enter tied Benficas. So I don't really know

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Speaker 2: what we're going to get from Liverpool here, but the

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Speaker 2: number is just not good enough for me to fade them,

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Speaker 2: given the just the overwhelming difference in firepower thirty or

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Speaker 2: twenty shots to one in the last match one point eight.

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Speaker 4: Xg too point two. I mean, you watch the match,

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Speaker 4: you know what happened.

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Speaker 2: But I just thought I would I thought we'd get

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Speaker 2: more counter attacking punch from Virial than we did. I

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Speaker 2: thought the defensive part of it went well, and then

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Speaker 2: just they just never had a chance to get the

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Speaker 2: counter going and that or even to play through the

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Speaker 2: press consistently enough if you don't want to call it

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Speaker 2: a counter.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the problem I have so what Virial really likes tragedy.

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Speaker 3: We've obviously talked about their four to four to their

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Speaker 3: two low blocks, but they're actually a very possession dominant

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Speaker 3: team in La Liga. They love to do a lot

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Speaker 3: of build up play from the back. If you watch

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Speaker 3: when they take goalkicks, you know, their two center backs

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Speaker 3: basically go out wide and they set up these passing structures,

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Speaker 3: you know, outside the box. Well against Byron, that kind

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Speaker 3: of worked because it drew Byron in with their high

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Speaker 3: line coming way in. It pushed all of their wingers

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Speaker 3: and all midfielders out wide. It created a lot of

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Speaker 3: openness in the middle of the pitch which allowed them

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Speaker 3: to filter the ball, you know, pass the ball through

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Speaker 3: their pressure, get it in the middle, and then move

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Speaker 3: it forward off based off byron Ti line. But like

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Speaker 3: you mentioned, when you have guys like Fabinho and Thiago,

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Speaker 3: who are two of the best pressing, defensive type midfielders

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Speaker 3: in the world, it's hard to play that type of

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Speaker 3: build up attack from the back, possession structures and get

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Speaker 3: it moving forward and essentially try to slow down the match,

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Speaker 3: because that was really the a reality only chance because

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Speaker 3: they're not going to be able to play with Liverpool

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Speaker 3: in an up and down style match. But now they

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Speaker 3: find themselves in situation where that's exactly what they have

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Speaker 3: to do. So now we go have to go back

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Speaker 3: to the first leg against Byron Munich where they did

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Speaker 3: that kind of similar slow style, but then they burst

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Speaker 3: through with a bunch of counter attacks and they took

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Speaker 3: the game right to Byron. They pressed them and they

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Speaker 3: really caused them a lot of problems. So that's what

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Speaker 3: they have to try to do in the second leg

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Speaker 3: against Liverpool. And listen, they could get waxed for nothing.

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Speaker 3: But if they come out with that type of we

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Speaker 3: have nothing to lose, let's press them, let's take the

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Speaker 3: game right to them, and let's take some chances and

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Speaker 3: be aggressive. I do think they have a shot. What

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Speaker 3: was concerned, not really concerning, but frustrating to me is

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Speaker 3: when they went down to nothing and they started to

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Speaker 3: get more possession towards the back and Liverpool kind of

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Speaker 3: sat off a little bit with the two nail lead.

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Speaker 3: The press just kept forcing the ball backwards. At some

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Speaker 3: point you have to take a chance over the top

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Speaker 3: I understand Van Dyke is pretty much one of the

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Speaker 3: best center backs in the world, especially at thwarting away

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Speaker 3: all of those long balls and really protecting that high line.

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Speaker 3: But that is, in my opinion, is what Vieil has

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Speaker 3: to do. They can't just keep passing the ball backwards

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Speaker 3: and trying to create a possession structure and go forward.

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Speaker 3: It's just not going to work with the two nil deficit.

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Speaker 3: So I agree with you, I can't get there on

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Speaker 3: the number I have Liverpool at minus one thirty. I

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Speaker 3: don't really have a good feeling your inkling of what

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Speaker 3: to play live here. Even if Liverpool scores first, I

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Speaker 3: don't think I'm gonna be playing Vireal live. It will

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Speaker 3: really just depend on what Vireals decides to come out in.

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Speaker 3: You know, are they really going to come out in

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Speaker 3: the four four two and stay in two low blocks

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Speaker 3: or are they gonna take the game to Liverpool. So

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Speaker 3: from a live scenario, it's gonna have to be really

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Speaker 3: what Virial does. But we talked about with Liverpool, maybe

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Speaker 3: they're just invincible because now they have a match against

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Speaker 3: Top on this next weekend, which is massive for not

149
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Speaker 3: only them but Tottenham as well. So are they just

150
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Speaker 3: gonna keep going and rolling, roll through the FA Cup,

151
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Speaker 3: get to the Champions League final and beat probably Manchester

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Speaker 3: City again, Like, is this team just invincible? I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Maybe they are, but it's it's just keeps coming week

154
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Speaker 3: in and week out. I mean this past weekend and

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Speaker 3: gets Newcastle just completely dominated them, didn't even let them

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Speaker 3: sniff the net. Obviously the final score line was one nothing,

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Speaker 3: but that was a completely dominant performance by them. So

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Speaker 3: and be real, like they lost to Alabase this past

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Speaker 3: weekend in La Liga, which is if you, like I've

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Speaker 3: mentioned with Allabase on this podcast a couple of times,

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Speaker 3: they are probably the worst team in La League or

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Speaker 3: very close to it. So that is a tad concerning

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Speaker 3: even though it's a Standwich spot. So yeah, I think

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Speaker 3: we're both on the same the same page here where

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Speaker 3: I just can't get to the number on v Real

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Speaker 3: and most likely Liverpool is probably going to move on

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Speaker 3: to the final.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I wanted to get like a good

169
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Speaker 2: beat to DS number, but it's really not even there

170
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Speaker 2: minus one sixty No thanks.

171
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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's why I tell you you could look to

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Speaker 4: play it live.

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Speaker 2: Maybe you know you kind of watch the match. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: the match is progressing. I am writing the preview for

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Speaker 2: this match. I'm probably going to dive into some props.

176
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Speaker 2: We don't have enough available right now, so I'm going

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Speaker 2: to look more into that over the next couple of

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Speaker 2: days and as we get closer to Tuesday. But I'm

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Speaker 2: not really sure what to make of this line, and

180
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Speaker 2: I think, you know, my projection is pretty close to

181
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Speaker 2: spot on actually, But of course I was high on

182
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Speaker 2: Vireo coming in into the first leg relatively slightly, not

183
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Speaker 2: even that much really anymore, and then downgrade them considerably

184
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Speaker 2: off of that. But you also the factor in that

185
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Speaker 2: Liverpool doesn't need to win, so that is deflating the

186
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Speaker 2: number a bit here, whereas if this were a must

187
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Speaker 2: win spot I think we'd see it, you know, closer

188
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Speaker 2: to minus one eight ish, like what Byron was in

189
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Speaker 2: the first leg. I wish they had also flipped the legs.

190
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Speaker 2: I always prefer the dog to play the her first

191
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Speaker 2: match at home and kind of makes for a better tie.

192
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Speaker 2: But now they are pretty pretty welcoked. Yeah, sets up

193
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Speaker 2: the better final.

194
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Speaker 3: So it does. It does. So let's move on to

195
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Speaker 3: that other tie, Real Madrid hosting Manchester City after one

196
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Speaker 3: of the more chaotic semi finals that I can remember.

197
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Speaker 3: Man City is an even money road favorite Real Madrid

198
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Speaker 3: sitting at plus two thirty with the draw at plus

199
00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:34,679
Speaker 3: two ninety. Man City with that four to three advantage

200
00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:38,040
Speaker 3: is minus four to eighty two advanced, while the Real

201
00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:42,360
Speaker 3: Madrid is plus three point fifty. Yeah, just absolute chaos

202
00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,520
Speaker 3: in that first match. Not really what I was expecting.

203
00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:48,040
Speaker 3: You know, I did project some value on me over

204
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Speaker 3: in that first leg, but given what we've seen from

205
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Speaker 3: Pep Guariola throughout this entire season, I don't think any

206
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Speaker 3: of us saw that match just exploding into a back

207
00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:01,640
Speaker 3: and forth for three type of match. And really, you know,

208
00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,040
Speaker 3: I'll just kick it to you here. First, I thought

209
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Speaker 3: that Real Madrid, I mean, man City was completely dominant

210
00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,800
Speaker 3: for most of the match. But Real Madrid just has

211
00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,439
Speaker 3: some sort of magic right now that is keeping them

212
00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:16,640
Speaker 3: in this tie and they may well just bend some

213
00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:18,599
Speaker 3: other way all the way to the finals. So what

214
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Speaker 3: do you what were your thoughts on the first leg

215
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Speaker 3: and what does Real Madrid need to do or what

216
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Speaker 3: do you think Man City needs to do to get

217
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Speaker 3: to the final.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, we talked about this last week and

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Speaker 2: The two biggest concerns were that Cancello was suspended and

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Speaker 2: that Walker was out, and how would they cope with

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Speaker 2: the counter attacking ability with Venetius.

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Speaker 4: On the on the left wing, and how we managed

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Speaker 4: to control the game.

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Speaker 2: Because Cities structure, their possession structure usually controls games. But

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Speaker 2: what we've seen this year when they've had to go

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Speaker 2: to some of the reserves, like the Liverpool match in

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Speaker 2: the FA Cup, even they don't get that kind of

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Speaker 2: control when they don't have the main guys in there.

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Speaker 2: And they were I don't want to take away from

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Speaker 2: Cities before because they were by far the better team.

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Speaker 2: You look at pressures, you look at shots, you look

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Speaker 2: at big chances created, you look at just you know,

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Speaker 2: you watch the match, there was no doubting who the

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Speaker 2: better side was. You know, you're reading the papers the

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Speaker 2: next day and it was about how Cities squandered a

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Speaker 2: dominant performance. It was only one goal and now they

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Speaker 2: were in danger of going out uh in Madrid, which

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Speaker 2: is all technically true. I think we're getting a discount

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Speaker 2: on city here, and I think the market came down

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Speaker 2: quite a bit already, so maybe not quite as much

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Speaker 2: as I thought we were going to get I thought

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Speaker 2: I was going to get a thought it was gonna

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Speaker 2: be Real plus a quarter. We are now looking at

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Speaker 2: Real plus a half with City damn near even money.

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Speaker 2: So the money has come in on City here. I

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Speaker 2: agree with it one hundred percent. I'm going to be

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Speaker 2: waiting though, to play it because I want to see

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Speaker 2: what Kyle Walker's status is going to be. We know

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Speaker 2: Cancello will be back, we assume Diaz should be good

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Speaker 2: to go the port, but we don't know the status

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Speaker 2: of Kyle Walker, and I think that's really important. We

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Speaker 2: saw Fernandinho as good as he was on that cross,

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Speaker 2: and uh, we were joking about, you know, Fernandinho right

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Speaker 2: back and you know, like as if this was some revelation,

255
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Speaker 2: and then we were like, oh, Fernandinho right back when

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Speaker 2: he got rinsed by Venetius. So if you think about

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Speaker 2: the game, you know, Real get three goals, bends him

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Speaker 2: a great finish on a met cross, Venetius has the

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Speaker 2: one great move and then they get a pen off

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Speaker 2: of nothing. So then you compare that to City, what

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Speaker 2: three point blank chances they hit the post. They had

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Speaker 2: another great chance that voting hit wide and so there

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Speaker 2: was no denying that City was able to easily break

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Speaker 2: through this real team.

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Speaker 4: I don't hate the idea of targeting like a live

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Speaker 4: you know team total over for City. See how this

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Speaker 4: is playing out over one and a half? Is it

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Speaker 4: minus one forty? I don't see anyway Real stops this

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Speaker 4: team if they want to just open it up and

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Speaker 4: City wants to let it rip again.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I totally agree with you. I have City at

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Speaker 3: minus one on nine. So I'm I'm with you.

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Speaker 4: I was, I said in our one minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 3: For me minus one fifteen. Yeah, so we're right on.

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Speaker 3: So right after that match, you know, I texted Anthony

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Speaker 3: and Michael and I said, playing City anything plus plus money,

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Speaker 3: Like it's like after watching that, I was like, that

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Speaker 3: was such a dominant per formance and I was hoping

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Speaker 3: that we could get City at plus one twenty plus

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Speaker 3: one twenty five given the fact that they didn't need

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Speaker 3: to win the match. But as you as you mentioned,

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Speaker 3: the money has come in on City and they've come

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Speaker 3: down a little bit. What's interesting for me is are

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Speaker 3: they really going to play zin Chinko again? Because we've

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Speaker 3: seen timetime in he's not a good defender, Like he's

286
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Speaker 3: very good at getting forward, progressing the ball forward, swinging crosses.

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Speaker 3: He's not that great of a defender. So is Kensalo

288
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Speaker 3: going to play on the left or in Chinko gonna

289
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Speaker 3: play on the right? Are they going to flip that?

290
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Speaker 3: What's going to happen if Kyle Walker's back? I mean,

291
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Speaker 3: there is no doubt, like I'm playing City, but if

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Speaker 3: he's out, that creates a little bit of a problem

293
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Speaker 3: for City and also Real Madrid is getting cast a

294
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Speaker 3: bureau back, which I think is massive for them because

295
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Speaker 3: as you saw, Tony Krus and Modrich are not defensive midfielders.

296
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Speaker 3: They're not good, Yeah, they they cannot sit back and

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Speaker 3: defend for full ninety minutes and they really struggle at

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Speaker 3: tracking runners, which would happened in the first goal with

299
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Speaker 3: the Bruyna Crius didn't track him. So and David Alba,

300
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Speaker 3: who had a really, really bad game, was very very

301
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Speaker 3: poor at you know, he's traditionally a left back, but

302
00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,440
Speaker 3: he's been forced to play center back for a lot

303
00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:11,520
Speaker 3: of the season for Real Madrid. He had a really

304
00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,199
Speaker 3: bad game and created that opening for de Bruyne on

305
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:17,559
Speaker 3: the first goal with CRUs not tracking him, leaving Carbajal

306
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Speaker 3: in a no man's land and Debruyne just puts a

307
00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,400
Speaker 3: you know, a pretty good cross away. And I think

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Speaker 3: what we saw, at least from that first ninety seconds,

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Speaker 3: I really do think Real Madrid was gonna do what

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Speaker 3: they were going to do in the first leg against PSG.

311
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Speaker 3: I really thought they were just gonna sit in and

312
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Speaker 3: play extremely defensive and just try to get this match

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Speaker 3: back to Madrid with a one goal deficit. But instead

314
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Speaker 3: they give up two goals in the first ten minutes

315
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Speaker 3: and they're forced to play open and yes, like you mentioned,

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Speaker 3: you know, amazing play from Denietius gets some one goal,

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Speaker 3: you know, Benzima takes a decent cross and puts it away,

318
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Speaker 3: and then they get a penalty and next thing you know,

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Speaker 3: it's four to three. So what's concerning to me and

320
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Speaker 3: what's giving me pause? And I know you're not like this,

321
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Speaker 3: but the second leg against Athletico Madrid, that the second half,

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Speaker 3: especially in Madrid, was very very concerning if you're somebody

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Speaker 3: who wants to back City here, because Atletico Simeoni basically

324
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Speaker 3: got that to the second half and then chance after

325
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Speaker 3: chance and they just couldn't put it away. Well, who's

326
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Speaker 3: finishing at the craziest rate in the world right now,

327
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Speaker 3: Kareem Benzema and Venetius Junior. So listen, if City wants

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Speaker 3: to sit in the control sixty percent possession again and

329
00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,240
Speaker 3: you know pep this game, they most likely could. But

330
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Speaker 3: at some point those openings just become too enticing to

331
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Speaker 3: just exploit. And and if it keeps happening over and

332
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Speaker 3: over again, yes, City could run up the score here.

333
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,520
Speaker 3: But there is some magic with Real Madrid right now

334
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Speaker 3: that I really don't understand what is going on. I mean,

335
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,520
Speaker 3: Kareem Benzema has over forty goals or he has forty

336
00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,320
Speaker 3: goals this season, which is just insane for somebody who's

337
00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:58,160
Speaker 3: thirty four years old. But again, that second leg against

338
00:15:58,160 --> 00:15:59,960
Speaker 3: Athletico in the second half is giving me a lot

339
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,640
Speaker 3: to pause with City, especially when we don't know what

340
00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:05,960
Speaker 3: they're going to do at right back to try and

341
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,040
Speaker 3: defend Venetians. So it's probably gonna be Can Salo, it

342
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,160
Speaker 3: would be my guest and the piperson Chinko on the left,

343
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Speaker 3: but then again you're leaving him one on one with Rodrigo,

344
00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:18,200
Speaker 3: who is also an incredibly a talented winger. So it's

345
00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,480
Speaker 3: very very interesting. I from the total standpoint, It's very

346
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:23,880
Speaker 3: funny because the total over three goals was plus one

347
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Speaker 3: ten in the first leg after seven goals. It's now

348
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:28,920
Speaker 3: over three goals is at minus one point fifteen at climbing,

349
00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:32,320
Speaker 3: so no real value on the total here. I agree

350
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Speaker 3: with you. I'm probably gonna end up taking City, but

351
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:37,440
Speaker 3: I do want to wait. I agree with you again

352
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:39,240
Speaker 3: for the status at Kyle Walker, and I also want

353
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:42,000
Speaker 3: to see what the market's gonna do. Are we gonna

354
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,640
Speaker 3: have a recorrection towards Real Madrid and people saying, oh

355
00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:46,680
Speaker 3: my gosh, for you know, they hung with City, they

356
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,560
Speaker 3: scored three goals on them. You know they're at home.

357
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,160
Speaker 3: They're the team that needs to win. Like, could we

358
00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:56,040
Speaker 3: get some public money and overcorrect back towards Real Madrid. Maybe?

359
00:16:56,280 --> 00:17:00,200
Speaker 3: Who knows, But yeah, I'm with you. I'm definitely on

360
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,560
Speaker 3: City and we're we're staring down the barrel at a

361
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:07,000
Speaker 3: City City Liverpool fourth meeting of the season, which is

362
00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:10,399
Speaker 3: gonna be incredibly epic, similar to you know, City Chelsea

363
00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:12,520
Speaker 3: last year, after playing each other so many times down

364
00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 3: the stretch. It's gonna be It's gonna be incredible, and

365
00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,480
Speaker 3: it also shows why the Premier league is the best

366
00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:18,120
Speaker 3: league in the world.

367
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's only become that more so in the last

368
00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,359
Speaker 2: few years with the money redistribution. Well, last thing for me,

369
00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 2: and this is about you know, Cancello coming back and

370
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:27,679
Speaker 2: kind of to your point about a.

371
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Speaker 4: Letti and Real.

372
00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:30,480
Speaker 2: I think it is a fair point, but I also

373
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 2: wonder like Real Madrid is not good defensively. They haven't

374
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Speaker 2: been good defensively all year. A Ledi is still an

375
00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:39,640
Speaker 2: elite defensive side, and I you know, we've talked about them,

376
00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:43,480
Speaker 2: I've criticized them and said whatever I've said, but Real

377
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 2: is eighth in La Liga and XG against their tenth

378
00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 2: and progressive passes allowed and their their bottom half of

379
00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 2: the league and crosses allowed too, So they're just not

380
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:55,880
Speaker 2: a good defensive side going up against an elite progressive

381
00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,200
Speaker 2: passing side with City, the best in the world, who's

382
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:00,720
Speaker 2: getting their best passer back for being on us with Cancelo,

383
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 2: and then they're gonna have open season on the crosses,

384
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:05,879
Speaker 2: and we saw how effected they were with crosses in

385
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,119
Speaker 2: the first leg. I don't see anything that changing, and

386
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 2: I think, you know, home field advantage is real here,

387
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,199
Speaker 2: but I also think it kind of just gives us

388
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 2: a better price on the much better team. So yeah,

389
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,680
Speaker 2: I'm probably going to play City, but again I'm gonna

390
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:21,840
Speaker 2: wait a little bit and kind of see how the

391
00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,320
Speaker 2: market reacts. I also don't hate, and we'll get into

392
00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:25,639
Speaker 2: this more. I'm when we get in the best bets.

393
00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 2: I don't hate this City on the like the alt

394
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,560
Speaker 2: line here, because I think my point is that if

395
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,000
Speaker 2: they're truly this much better than Reality, which I have

396
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 2: believed all year, and they take a few of those

397
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,439
Speaker 2: chances and it's like five to two, you know, are

398
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 2: we that surprised if the first leg it ended five

399
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 2: to two or five three or or four to two.

400
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 3: You know?

401
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 2: So I think City very much as an ability to

402
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,200
Speaker 2: get margin, especially if Real has to chase, because we

403
00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:51,040
Speaker 2: haven't seen a lot of City on the counter this year,

404
00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 2: but they're very very effective voting, you know, Grealish may

405
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,200
Speaker 2: come in. Debruna has gotten so much better as a

406
00:18:57,760 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 2: runner with the ball at his feet through the midfield,

407
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:04,480
Speaker 2: so in Gabrielle Jazus too, another good attacking option who's

408
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 2: played well lately. So I think I think City has

409
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:08,359
Speaker 2: a real opportunity to rip a team on.

410
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 4: The counter, kind of what you did the PSG last year.

411
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:12,679
Speaker 2: Even going back to what I said last week, let

412
00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:14,680
Speaker 2: PSG come onto them, rip them up on the counter,

413
00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:18,200
Speaker 2: and into the final they go. I make Liverpool plus

414
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 2: one seven neutral site one.

415
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 4: Match, so that'll be fun.

416
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm at City minus one oh four to lift

417
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,879
Speaker 3: the trophy against Liverpool, so that is going to be

418
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 3: very interesting. Also, City team total over one and a

419
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,399
Speaker 3: half is minus one forty. Would like a little bit

420
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:34,879
Speaker 3: of a better number on that one, but that one

421
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 3: is also kind of interesting. If you do believe that

422
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 3: City is going to just thrash Real Madrid on the

423
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,840
Speaker 3: counter or basically thrash one, you know, in the eighth

424
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 3: best defense in Spain, then you avoid getting benz Mud,

425
00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,200
Speaker 3: which has happened to a lot of teams this year.

426
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:52,919
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean we're both in on City. We're

427
00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 3: staring down the barrel out of City Liverpool final, which

428
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 3: is going to be epic. But yeah, it's probably City

429
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 3: moving on unless some magic happens with Carlo Ancelotti and

430
00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:07,919
Speaker 3: Benzima coming off winning the La Liga title this weekend.

431
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:09,640
Speaker 4: I can't take any more magic from that team.

432
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,439
Speaker 2: And they killed me, They killed they killed my PSG

433
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,639
Speaker 2: ticket and then I had Chelsea.

434
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:20,520
Speaker 4: I had a Chelsea advanced ticket and I haven't bet

435
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:22,679
Speaker 4: City yet, but I'm likely betting than Wednesday.

436
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 3: And I saw in the rumor mill uh today. I

437
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 3: love just for everybody out there, this is sidetracking, but

438
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 3: I love just looking up transfer rumors that have no

439
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:36,399
Speaker 3: material like value to them, or like they're never going

440
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 3: to happen. But this one might. But I heard that

441
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 3: Real Madrid wants Cristiano back this summer. It could be very,

442
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,920
Speaker 3: very funny and awesome. All right, Let's move on to

443
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 3: the Europa League's second legs. Let's first start Thursday at

444
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 3: three pm Eastern Frankfurt hosting west Ham. Frankfort has a

445
00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 3: two one advantage after a thrilling match at the London Stadium.

446
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:07,359
Speaker 3: They are plus one forty five at home. West Ham

447
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 3: is sitting at plus one eighty five to draw at

448
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 3: plus two forty. Frankfurt's minus four to two twenty two

449
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 3: advance west Ham at plus three ten to get to

450
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 3: the final. It was an interesting first leg. The west

451
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 3: Ham team that we've seen in the Premier League, which

452
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 3: has dipped incredibly in form, kind of showed up for

453
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 3: a little like the first minute of that match. After

454
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 3: giving up a goal in the first minute and then

455
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 3: Frankfort kind of sat in defensively. West Ham dominated most

456
00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 3: of the match and then they get to go in

457
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:42,360
Speaker 3: the second half take a two to one advantage back

458
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 3: in Germany. I really thought west Ham was the better

459
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 3: side for the match, and I'm probably gonna end up

460
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 3: playing them in this second leg. But what do you

461
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 3: what are your thoughts on Frankfurt west Ham's second leg, Anthony, Yeah, it.

462
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 4: Was a great first match.

463
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 2: I almost hate when early goals happened because it kind

464
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 2: of takes away from what we can really learn from

465
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 2: the match, because yeah, like Frankfurt sat back, but they

466
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 2: were up a goal on the road, I mean they're

467
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 2: going to sit deeper naturally, they still had more successful pressures.

468
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 4: Fifty six to thirty five. West Ham continues to slide.

469
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 2: I lean west Ham here because and this is a

470
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 2: spot where I think I have the slightly better team

471
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 2: in west Ham overall. They're on the road, yes, but

472
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 2: if it's a tie game late, I think they're the

473
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,439
Speaker 2: ones who are going to be pouring the numbers forward

474
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 2: and Frankfort is going to be the ones sitting deeper.

475
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 2: So naturally, just based on game state alone, you're going

476
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 2: to get more chances for west Ham to get back

477
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 2: into this match just generally how it works, and they

478
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 2: could get countered and get cooked. But I'm thinking generally

479
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 2: that I want to lean toward west Ham here.

480
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 4: We talked about it like, yes, they were the slightly

481
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 4: better side.

482
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,640
Speaker 2: XG had it two point one to one point four

483
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 2: in favor of the Hammers. I'm not really looking to

484
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 2: bet them to advance necessarily because I do I do.

485
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 2: I think Frankfort's going to end up getting through here,

486
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 2: but I would lean west Ham. I think they have

487
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 2: a good chance to get this in the extra time.

488
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 2: The most interesting thing for me in the first leg,

489
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 2: and it was kind of difficult to really break it down,

490
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 2: like I said, because you know Frankfurt's we don't know

491
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,159
Speaker 2: what their game plan was going in, but it definitely

492
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 2: was more conservative than it was going to be after

493
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 2: the first minute when you score the way they did.

494
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 4: So the biggest question for me.

495
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 2: West Ham has not been good at breaking down lower

496
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 2: blocks in the prem this year. It's just been a

497
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 2: major struggle for them, especially the second half of the season,

498
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 2: and now they're going to have to do that against

499
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 2: a team who is very capable on the counter, so

500
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 2: that's really the biggest question mark. West Ham still has

501
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 2: injury issues at center back, which definitely mattered I thought

502
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 2: in the first leg, but again they did not look

503
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 2: great against Arsenal today, so I'm not really sure what

504
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 2: to make of this match. But I didn't bet the

505
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 2: first leg and I'm more likely than not sitting out

506
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 2: the second leg as well. And we'll be just rooting

507
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 2: on my lipstick boys to make the final.

508
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 3: Disgusting. Sorry, well we'll get to rang your sleipsig in

509
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 3: a second. But I have some big time thoughts on

510
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 3: the Scottish Giants, but I am going to be playing

511
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 3: west Ham in this one. I do show some projected

512
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 3: value on them on the road here that the team

513
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 3: that doesn't need to win, you're getting them plus money

514
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 3: on the drawn note bet line, which I think is

515
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 3: does have some value. Kurt Zuma being back is honoestly

516
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 3: huge for west Ham with Diapp being out obviously Obona

517
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 3: done for the season. Craig Dawson was suspended against Arsenal,

518
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 3: so they had to play Creswell alongside Zuma, which Zuma

519
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 3: did play in the first leg here against Frankfurt. That's

520
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,239
Speaker 3: big at least having two center backs back for them.

521
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 3: I think it's huge. They've been able to rotate guys.

522
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 3: They've been very clear in their lineup choices in the

523
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 3: Premier League and here that the Europa League matters way

524
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 3: more to them than the Premier League. They rested Antonio

525
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 3: and so I checked for most of the machigainst Arsenal

526
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 3: and brought them on for the last fifteen minutes or

527
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 3: so on Sunday. But I mean they were just the

528
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 3: better side. It's Frankfurt. I understand the early goal changes things,

529
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 3: but twenty six shot crating actions to eleven, I mean

530
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 3: West ham hit the post three times. They were incredibly

531
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 3: unfortunate to not at least have this level going back

532
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 3: to Germany. So I mean after the first goal, I

533
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 3: mean two point one to one point one expected goals

534
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 3: is pretty dominant of a performance from the Hammers. And listen,

535
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 3: I know they've been sliding in the Premier League. I

536
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 3: know that they were lucky to get by Leone in

537
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 3: the quarterfinals, but this is a team with a lot

538
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 3: of talent. Jared Bowen is really really starting to find

539
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 3: the form that we saw back in January and February,

540
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 3: when we were sorry December and January, we were started

541
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 3: talking as like the most informed attacker in the Premier League.

542
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 3: So with his form getting back to elite level, I

543
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 3: really boosts this west Ham attack. And I do believe

544
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 3: that the Hammers, given the fact that listen, they haven't

545
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 3: done a good job at breaking down low blocks, but

546
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 3: they've done an unbelievable job at at least controlling possession

547
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 3: and keeping teams inside their final third. I mean, you

548
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 3: saw in the first League against Frankfort they did it

549
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:14,479
Speaker 3: a couple times to Arsenal on Sunday. Obviously they need

550
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 3: to win, but even if they don't get through and

551
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 3: don't get the goal, I don't think Frankfurt, especially what

552
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 3: we saw when they had a lead against Barcelona in

553
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 3: the quarterfinals, they almost had one of the most epic

554
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:32,360
Speaker 3: collapses of all time against Barcelona. So given the fact

555
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 3: that Frankfort has, they're gonna sit in deep, They're gonna

556
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:36,920
Speaker 3: play very defensive. I do like west Ham john O

557
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 3: Betts protect yourself against the draw on the road getting

558
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 3: plus money and I mean listen. For the season, west

559
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 3: Ham and now has a minus point five expected goal

560
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 3: of differential after being you know, plus ten or so

561
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 3: for most of the first half of the season. I mean,

562
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 3: Frankfort is still minus five in the Budhesliga. And if

563
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 3: you look at your way fora coefficients, England is by

564
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:02,120
Speaker 3: far a more difficult league and the Bundesliga. So given

565
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 3: Frank given west Ham that edge, I mean, the difference

566
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 3: between the Premier League and Germany basically takes away that

567
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 3: home field advantage. So basically you would say, all right,

568
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 3: west Ham is essentially the better side. You're getting them

569
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 3: a plus money on the drawing. No bet line. I

570
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 3: like the Hammers too. I don't really like them to advance.

571
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 3: I agree with you on that, but I do like

572
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 3: them on the draw. No bed protecting yourself against a draw.

573
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to what I think is

574
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 3: actually the more interesting match of the two semifinals, Rangers

575
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 3: hosting RB Leipzig. RB Leipsig is taking a one nil

576
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 3: advantage from the match angelino eighty fifth minute goal to

577
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 3: win one nothing rby Pipsig is a minus one to

578
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 3: ten road favorite. Rangers sitting at plus two seventy with

579
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 3: the draw at plus to eighty. Leipsig is minus seven

580
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 3: hundred advanced Rangers sitting at plus four seventy to get

581
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 3: to the final. This is gonna be incredibly fun because

582
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 3: for those who don't know or have never really watched

583
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 3: Scottish football before, Rangers is one of the I'll say it,

584
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 3: like one of the biggest clubs in England. Given their

585
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 3: performances through the sixties and seventies, the Ibrox Stadium is

586
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 3: one of the most hostile environments in all of Europe.

587
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 3: Up there in Glasgow. What's interesting and just get everybody

588
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 3: a little history lesson on Rangers. This is a club

589
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,479
Speaker 3: that has won fifty five Scottish Premier League titles. They

590
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 3: won a European Cup in nineteen seventy one. They've been

591
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 3: to the final twice in the sixties. In twenty twelve

592
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 3: they went into administration because they took on way too

593
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 3: much debt and the agreement was they had to be

594
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 3: placed in the fourth tier of Scottish football, so they

595
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 3: bade their way from the fourth tier all the way

596
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 3: back up to the Scottish Premiership. It's almost like a

597
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 3: team has this club one of the big Them and

598
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 3: Celtic are the two biggest clubs in Scotland. They both

599
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:57,479
Speaker 3: in Glasgow. This team has risen from the ashes. Now

600
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 3: they're in a Europa League semi final in front of

601
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 3: one of the most hostile crowds in all of Europe.

602
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 3: This is going to be an unbelievable atmosphere in Scotland

603
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 3: and I really really do think Rangers has a chance

604
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 3: of getting to the final. I'm probably not gonna bettering

605
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 3: them plus two to seventy on the money line. If

606
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 3: you're going to do that, bet them plus four seventy

607
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 3: two advance. I mean, it's a one goal episode. You know,

608
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 3: you're getting so many so much better odds. This is

609
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 3: a two gold episode. Yeah, it'd be a little bit

610
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 3: of a different story. But RBI Leipsig really wasn't. I

611
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 3: didn't think was that impressive in Germany. I mean, fourteen

612
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 3: shot creating actions, one point five expected goals created. Rangers

613
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 3: just sat down on a low lock, kind of similar

614
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 3: what they did against Dortmund in the two legs of

615
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 3: the Europa League knockout playoffs, and they just looked a

616
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 3: counter against them and they did have a couple of

617
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 3: successful counters that just didn't end in high quality shots.

618
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 3: I mean they only had point two expected goals for

619
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 3: the match, so you can't really say that they had

620
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 3: somewhat of chances. But they did have five shots inside

621
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 3: leip sixs penalty. That's the same amount that Leipzig had

622
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 3: in their penalty area. Like this really wasn't a completely

623
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 3: dominant Leipzig performance. So going down the road, given the

624
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: fact that Leipzig doesn't need to win this match, given

625
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 3: the over performance we've talked about ad nauseum on this podcast,

626
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 3: I mean plus thirty three actual goal differential versus plus

627
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 3: seventeen point two expected goal differential, they're almost doubling their

628
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 3: actual what their expected output is. So I mean I

629
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 3: have this match closer to a pick them. I love

630
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 3: Rangers plus half a goal at minus one ten at home,

631
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 3: and I truly believe that they're going to cause some

632
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 3: problems to Leipzig because they had almost a thirty seven

633
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 3: percent pressure success rate in that first leg. It wasn't

634
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 3: like they just sat back and didn't, you know, provide

635
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 3: Leipzig any type of pressure. They successfully pressured them and

636
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 3: got out on the counter a few times. So I'm

637
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 3: truly believing in this Ranger squad to at least get

638
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 3: a result here in the first leg. Or the second leg.

639
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 3: Excuse me, what are your thoughts on Rangers Leipzig Anthony?

640
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, Rangers two extra days arrest are what?

641
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 3: Actually a restrat.

642
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 2: Played Celtic today will and then Leipzig has Frankfurt tomorrow

643
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 2: or Leipzig has Glodboch tomorrow rather Frankfurt playing I'm.

644
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 3: Thinking, what are you thinking? Four goals off a one

645
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 3: point five expected for Leipzig on Monday. We are recording

646
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 3: this on Sunday, just for everybody out there.

647
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean they're playing Glodbox, so they'll probably get

648
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 4: about eight expected goals. But so I lean toward Leipzig. Again.

649
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 2: I'm just higher on this team than I am on

650
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 2: the rest of the competition. But I think if you

651
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 2: like Leipzig here, you shouldn't bet them to win this match.

652
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 2: You should bet them to win the tournament because they're

653
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 2: still only minus one twenty and we got a very

654
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 2: favorable result in my opinion in the first match of

655
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 2: the other leg, because we're getting frankfort is now the

656
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 2: favorite to advance over West Ham And I mentioned this

657
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:50,239
Speaker 2: before one I always like domestic teams playing agains each

658
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 2: other when I have the better team, because I think

659
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 2: that gives an advantage to the team. When there's more familiarity,

660
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 2: the better team gets the advantage. And over two legs

661
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 2: this year, I know they drew both matches, but Leipzig

662
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 2: created over four expected goals conceded less than one against Frankfurt.

663
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 2: They just totally dominated that matchup. So if you like

664
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 2: Leipzig here and you think they're you know, going to

665
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 2: go through, don't put them on the money line, because

666
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 2: like you said, there is no incidentive to win.

667
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 4: A draw is a good result for them. It is

668
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 4: a difficult place to play.

669
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 2: If it's tied late, it's going to be Rangers pushing

670
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 2: for the goal, not Leipzig, and so I think all

671
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 2: that has to be considered, and that's why I'm not

672
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:24,719
Speaker 2: really touching this match in terms of a single game

673
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 2: betting perspective.

674
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 4: But well that's one thing. The other thing I do

675
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 4: lean towards the over.

676
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 2: But also, if you like Leipzig and you still haven't

677
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 2: met them yet, there's still only minus one twenty to

678
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 2: win this tournament, and I really do think they're much

679
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 2: much better than both Frankfurt and West Ham So I

680
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 2: think we just need to get through this match with

681
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 2: a draw. Here and we're going to be in pretty

682
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 2: good shape and hopefully, you know, I gave out the

683
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 2: plus one twenty one twenty five last week. We're feeling

684
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 2: pretty good about that right now.

685
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 3: Yeah. So to your point, when Leipzig met Frankfurt on

686
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 3: March twentieth at home, they were a minus two forty

687
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 3: five home favorite.

688
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 4: So that was on the money line, right, that.

689
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 3: Was on the money line. So to your point, they're

690
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 3: not going to be lower than minus one twenty to.

691
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 4: Win this, right, They're gonna two hundred ish.

692
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you're definitely getting some value if you truly

693
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 3: think that Leipzig is going to win. I agree with you.

694
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 3: I do think Leipzig is going to get through eventually,

695
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 3: but at minus one ten, there's nowhere I'm touching them

696
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 3: to win this match when they don't need to, so

697
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 3: I'll be on rangers. I do agree with you that

698
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 3: Leipzig does have some value to win the entire Europa League.

699
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 3: I mean, even if they face west Ham, they're gonna

700
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 3: be at least minus one fifty against.

701
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 4: Them, and I feel very good about that matchup.

702
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. All right, let's move on to the Europa

703
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 3: Conference League second legs. Let's first start. These are Thursday

704
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 3: at three pm Eastern time. Let's start with Marseille hosting

705
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 3: fian rd Marseille is plus one ten on the money line,

706
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 3: five Rds sitting at plus two oh five with the

707
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 3: draw at plus two seventy. It was a chaotic first

708
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 3: match between these two in the Netherlands. By and Ord

709
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 3: came away with a three two victory. Expected goals were

710
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 3: fine Or two point three to Marseille one point eight.

711
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 3: I am pretty much very close to the actual odds

712
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 3: on this. I have Marseille at plus one thirty eight,

713
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 3: so not a ton of value of anything. I definitely

714
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 3: lean towards Fire and Ord in this match. But what

715
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:29,320
Speaker 3: are your thoughts on what I think is going to

716
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 3: be maybe similar to Rangers' lipstig, maybe one of the

717
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 3: more fun matches of Thursday.

718
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I wish they staggered him a little bit.

719
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 2: You know, all four matches at three pm Eastern on

720
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:42,839
Speaker 2: Thursday makes for a fun Galasso show. But in terms

721
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 2: of wanting to watch all these matches, I can't really

722
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 2: do that at once and enjoy them all. So disappointing there,

723
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 2: but I like Fine Ord again, And if you listen

724
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 2: to the show last week, I gave out fine Or

725
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 2: to advance in Roma to advance, and we're we're in

726
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 2: decent shape on both Nord taking the one goal lead

727
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 2: to Marseille. This is the spot I would start targeting

728
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 2: for a single game play because I do like that.

729
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 2: I'm getting the road dog price on fire rd in

730
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:09,399
Speaker 2: a matchup where I like them, and I talked about

731
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 2: this last week.

732
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 4: Marseille is so slow and build up. They're very patient possession.

733
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 2: It's very Sumpioli esque their manager who has Ampioli. They

734
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 2: sit and they pass and they work their way up

735
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 2: the field very slowly, and then Pie does some magic

736
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: or Gerson and they score well over their expected goals somehow. Well,

737
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 2: when they play an effective counter attacking team that like

738
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 2: fine Ord, is very capable of being, I think they

739
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 2: can get exposed a little bit, and I think that's

740
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 2: exactly how this game kind of sets up to be,

741
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: where they're going to lose the ball and then fine

742
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 2: Ord is very effective in direct transition. So I like

743
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 2: Finnord plus a half.

744
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 4: I know it's a little juicy. You can take the

745
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 4: plus a quarter too if you don't want to lay

746
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 4: the juice, but minus one thirty one.

747
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 2: Forty are out there on the Nord. I'm invested into Advance.

748
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,320
Speaker 2: I'm going to add some as well on the plus

749
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 2: here the dog price because I do think probably ends

750
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 2: in a draw, but Finoid will be advancing to the

751
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,760
Speaker 2: Europa Conference League Final.

752
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 3: Boy, I hope. So, I don't know if I can

753
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 3: deal with Marseille winning.

754
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 4: A trope Marseille also losing on the weekend to Leon

755
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 4: Ye three. No, yeah, lot inbound.

756
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 3: Well, FI an Ord beat U Fortuna Sitard on the

757
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 3: road on Sunday.

758
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to a very difficult place

759
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 4: to play for.

760
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 3: Exactly if anybody has some extra time to look at

761
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 3: some of the names and the Dutch here at you say,

762
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 3: they're very funny, one of my favorite teams. To go ahead,

763
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 3: Eagles love them anyway, Let's move on to the second

764
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 3: tie here in the Europa Conference League second leg, Roma

765
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 3: hosting lester Rama is sitting at plus one ten. Leicester

766
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 3: is sitting at plus two thirty five, with the draw

767
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 3: also at plus two thirty five. The first leg was

768
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 3: quite interesting because it was a throwback Jose Mourinho type performance.

769
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 3: They get an early goal and they just try to

770
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 3: park the bus, sit on the lead and take it

771
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 3: back to Italy. So you look at x G and

772
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 3: you see Roma point two to three to Leicester one

773
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 3: point seven, and I'll be honest, I think it's a

774
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:12,760
Speaker 3: ton of this match because I was a little focused

775
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 3: on the two Europa League ties, but just looking at that,

776
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 3: it was just okay, this was a Marinho parked the

777
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 3: bus type performance. But as we go back here now

778
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 3: the fact that Rama needs to win, I mean my

779
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,800
Speaker 3: thoughts really haven't changed from what we talked about in

780
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 3: the first leg. This is Roma is clearly a way

781
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 3: better side than Lester, even though Lester somewhat dominated that

782
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 3: first leg at the King Power Stadium. I mean for

783
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 3: the season, Rama's about a plus twenty two expected old

784
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 3: eventual Lester's around minus eleven. Lester just got thrashed by

785
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:49,320
Speaker 3: Tottenham on Sunday. You know, Rama was held to a

786
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 3: zero zero draw with Bologna, who also beat Intern in

787
00:37:56,280 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 3: the midweek. So yeah, it's it's interesting. You know, I

788
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 3: have Roma at minus one oh nine, so I do

789
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 3: show a little bit of value on them, and I'll

790
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:10,839
Speaker 3: probably end up playing them here in the second lay

791
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 3: because I'm just really not a believer in this Leicster defense,

792
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 3: especially if Lester gets caught having to sit in deep

793
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 3: for the entire match and try to play two low blocks.

794
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 3: They're just not a team that's designed to do that

795
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 3: and do it successfully. So I'll be taking Roma most

796
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 3: likely at plus one ten. What are your thoughts on

797
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 3: Roma versus Leicester. Are you gonna hold on to your

798
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:34,800
Speaker 3: to advance ticket and just play that or are you

799
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 3: actually going to play something else in this match? Yeah?

800
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 4: No play for me here.

801
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 2: I liked the dog spot for them in the first

802
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 2: leg and I like them to advance. I don't want

803
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 2: them as a favorite because I think Leicester can do

804
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:47,839
Speaker 2: some quick strike stuff and play deeper and then try

805
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: to run and tradition. But the set piece thing, I

806
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 2: just cannot get over that they are the number one

807
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 2: set piece team in Italy this season based on expected goals,

808
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:57,720
Speaker 2: and we've talked about this a lot on this podcast.

809
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 2: Leicester City continues to be bish defending set pieces and

810
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 2: again today conceding off a corner to Tottenham. So I

811
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 2: don't want any part of Leicester. I do also show

812
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 2: value on Roma, but not to the point where I'm

813
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 2: gonna be doubling down on my to advance ticket, which

814
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 2: is still ahead, but not safe at all being that

815
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 2: it's tied on aggregate. So come on, Roma, Jose his

816
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 2: need his knockout tournament magic to help out here and

817
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:26,840
Speaker 2: get us into the final.

818
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, we needed a Jose to get another trophy. He

819
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 3: doesn't have enough.

820
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 2: Well, look, he'll be the first ever manager to win

821
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 2: the Europa Conference League and he will make sure everybody

822
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 2: knows it exactly.

823
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,839
Speaker 3: And he should make sure everybody knows that. All right,

824
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 3: let's move on to the best bets portion of the segment, Anthony,

825
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 3: what is your best bet for the Champions League for

826
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 3: the second legs.

827
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 2: I'm gonna chase a little payment here. You know, we're

828
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:54,840
Speaker 2: gonna go man City minus one and a half plus

829
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 2: two seventy. I also like man City on the Monday line.

830
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 2: I am going to wait until we get more news

831
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 2: on Kyle Walker and whether or not he's playing it

832
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,799
Speaker 2: right back. I just think he's really important to their

833
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 2: defensive structure, playing as a sweeper, preventing balls in over

834
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 2: the top, and of course in this matchup, guarding veneties

835
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 2: Junior and not allowing him to just run wild up

836
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 2: the left wing. But overall, I think we saw in

837
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:20,760
Speaker 2: the first leg City as the dramatically better side. Overall,

838
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,359
Speaker 2: they created the lion's share of the chances, they had

839
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 2: most of the good chances, and really, yes, Real Madrid

840
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:30,840
Speaker 2: has run unbelievably well. They may continue to run well forever,

841
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 2: but regression would suggest that there is some coming for

842
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 2: this team, and Real Madrid continues to overperform to the

843
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 2: point where I think their defense is going to get exposed,

844
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 2: just eighth best in La Liga, and I think their

845
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 2: attack at some point has to cool off because no

846
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 2: one has ever run as hot as Karen Benzema has

847
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 2: run in the last few months. As much as I

848
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 2: love him and appreciate his greatness, one more time, I'm

849
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 2: fading Karen. I'm going man City minus one and a

850
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 2: half plus two to seventy to win the match.

851
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm an agree with you. I'm gonna go to

852
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 3: Manchester City plus one ten to win the match. I

853
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 3: have them projected at minus four and one on nine,

854
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,280
Speaker 3: so I'm showing a little value on them. The addition

855
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 3: of Jile Cansalo coming back into lineup is going to

856
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 3: be huge for Manchester City, whether pep uses him atter

857
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 3: right back or a left back. If he uses my

858
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 3: at right it'll protect him against Venetius Junior, who obviously

859
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:20,800
Speaker 3: had the incredible move against Fernandinho to get Real Madrid

860
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 3: their second goal. But as we've already mentioned, I mean

861
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 3: Real Madrid's three goals came off of a okay header

862
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 3: that Kareem Benz might just put away, Venisia Junior thrashed

863
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 3: Fernandinho down the wing, and then just a lucky handball

864
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 3: penalty is how they got their three goals while Manchester

865
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 3: City kept coming and kept coming and created so many

866
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 3: chances right at the nets, scored in the first two

867
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 3: minutes of the match. It's you know, expected goals was

868
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:50,400
Speaker 3: two point five to one point six. You take out

869
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 3: that penalty, it's Manchester City two point five to two

870
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 3: point nine. So incredibly dominant performance from them in the

871
00:41:56,760 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 3: first leg. Real Madrid's center backs just aren't able to

872
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 3: handle the amount of attackers that Manchester City are able

873
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 3: to throw at them, especially with Manchester City swinging and

874
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,839
Speaker 3: crosses like the first goal to Kevin de Bruyne. It's

875
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 3: just a City team that is way more dominant and

876
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 3: if Pep Guariola wants to play his normal style. They're

877
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:18,839
Speaker 3: going to control sixty percent of the possession, force Real

878
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 3: Madrid to defend for a majority of a match, which

879
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 3: they've already shown not only in La Liga, but in

880
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 3: the knockout round that they are not capable of doing

881
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 3: if you go back to the matches against PSG and Chelsea.

882
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 3: So I am with you. I love Manchester City plus

883
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,439
Speaker 3: one ten on the money line to win this match

884
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:39,240
Speaker 3: in Madrid. All right, that'll do it for another episode

885
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 3: of Wonder Goal. Thank you all for listening. Make sure

886
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:45,760
Speaker 3: to like, rate, and subscribe. If you're watching this on YouTube,

887
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 3: and if you're listening to this in podcast form, please

888
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 3: follow us and give us a five star review. We

889
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:54,320
Speaker 3: really appreciate it, and make sure to go download the

890
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 3: Action Work app. You can follow Anthony and myself not

891
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 3: only all our Champions League picks, but all of our

892
00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 3: soccer picks out the week. We'll be back on Thursday

893
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 3: morning breaking down the entire weekend slate in the top

894
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,359
Speaker 3: five leagues in Europe. Hopefully Michael Leebo will be back

895
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 3: in the host chair. So for Anthony Dumundo, I'm BJ Cunningham.

896
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 3: Thank you all for listening, and good luck with your

897
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 3: waitress this week