1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,880 Speaker 1: People say bitcoin is too volatile, and looking at today's 2 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: price action, and that sounds pretty fair. Bitcoin's down more 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: than thirty percent, Fears everywhere, and calls for another crash 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,240 Speaker 1: get in louder every day. But what if Bitcoin's volatility 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:17,120 Speaker 1: isn't the problem at all? What if misunderstanding the volatility 6 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,799 Speaker 1: is the real reason people keep losing money every single cycle. Well, 7 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: I'm gonna break this down in this volatility masterclass show 8 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:25,799 Speaker 1: you how to use this to build wealth instead of 9 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: losing it. So let's go, all right, So we're gonna 10 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,200 Speaker 1: jump in today and talk about bitcoin volatility. And again, 11 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,279 Speaker 1: if you don't like bitcoin, that's fine. Every asset goes 12 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 1: up and down. Every asset has volatility, so apply it 13 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:41,200 Speaker 1: to your favorite asset. But I'm gonna use bitcoin because 14 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,199 Speaker 1: one of the biggest objections I hear to bitcoin is 15 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: it's too volatile. So Bitcoin is highly volatile, So it's 16 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 1: a great asset to use in this. But this is 17 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 1: going to give you the entire investing blueprint that you need. 18 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 1: But the thing with volatility, first of all, just real quick, 19 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: is that if you don't learn how to use it properly, 20 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 1: then it's going to shake you out. It shakes people 21 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: out every single cycle. Some people would say that it's 22 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:08,960 Speaker 1: actually used to consolidate power and strip you of your wealth, 23 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: strip you of your assets. But I don't want you 24 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: to lose your assets and your wealth. I want you 25 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 1: to get more wealthy. And so we want to learn 26 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 1: how to use volatility the right way. First of all, 27 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: what is volatility and is it really a flaw? So like, oh, 28 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 1: i'd like bitcoin. I see that people made a lot 29 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: of money with bitcoin. I understand it's the best performing 30 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 1: asset in fifteen years, ten years, three year, five or whatever. 31 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: But it's too volatile, as if that's a bad thing. 32 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 1: So is it Is it a flaw or is it 33 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: a function? Well, volatility scales directly with the opportunity, So 34 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: the bigger the opportunity, the more volatilary there is. Low 35 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 1: volatility assets offer stability but generally provide minimal real growth. 36 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: So volatility is the measurement of an asset going up. 37 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: So cash is great, it's pretty stable, but it's not 38 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: going to go up or down like a US dollars 39 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: in a bank or a money market account or stable coins. 40 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: There's no growth. It's stable, but there's no growth. Recent 41 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: data from ice Shares confirms bitcoin has a fifty four 42 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: percent annualized volatility. What does that mean? Fifty four percent 43 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: anualized volatility. It's roughly three point five times that of 44 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 1: gold and five times more volatile than equity. So it's 45 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: too volatile. Yeah, it's five times more volatile than equities. Yeah, 46 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 1: it's three point five times more volatile than goal. But 47 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: volatility is the measurement of the asset going up but 48 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: also its ability to go down. So Bitcoin is going 49 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: up by about fifty Well, in this case, fifty four 50 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 1: percent per year sort of depends on when you measure it. 51 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 1: Right now, the last three years are like seventy percent, 52 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: but it goes up about fifty percent compounding per year. 53 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 1: So that means I have the potential to make fifty 54 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: percent on the upside, but I also have to be 55 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: willing to stomach fifty percent on the downside. So when 56 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:54,359 Speaker 1: they're saying it's too volatile, they're saying I don't want 57 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 1: an asset that goes up fifty percent because I'd be terrible, right. No, 58 00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:59,119 Speaker 1: what they're saying is I don't want an asset that goes 59 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:02,080 Speaker 1: down more than that much. But the problem is is 60 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: that it's direct with the opportunity. Okay, Now, this distinct 61 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,959 Speaker 1: profile classifies bitcoin not as risky but as high energy. 62 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 1: So it's a high energy asset. Mean it moves a lot. 63 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 1: So we have right here global equities ten point five percent, 64 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,959 Speaker 1: gold right here fifteen percent, and then bitcoin fifty four percent. 65 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: So I want the fifty four percent on the upside, 66 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:22,800 Speaker 1: but I don't know if I can stomach it on 67 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 1: the downside. But don't worry. I'm going to show you 68 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:26,959 Speaker 1: how we solve this, because again, I don't want you 69 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 1: getting wiped out. I want you to benefit from volatility. 70 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 1: What does volatility actually measure? You might have heard like 71 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: a thirty vall asset or a fifty vall asset, Like, 72 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 1: what does that even mean? In plain language, It's simply 73 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 1: how much an asset moves. That's the volatility. How much 74 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: does it move over a period of time. Bigger moves 75 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: don't signal instability, they signal higher energy, and as Michael 76 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 1: Saylor would say, they signal vitality. He says, volatility is vitality. 77 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 1: It's how much energy the asset moves, the lively lliness, 78 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 1: the movement of it. Again, we don't want to invest 79 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 1: into a dead asset. We wouldn't invest into something that 80 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: would never go up. Because we want to invest into 81 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 1: something that goes up. We needed to have the energy 82 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 1: to the vitality. Bitcoin average is a thirty percent correction 83 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: every three to six months. That's normal behavior. As a 84 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: matter of fact, since the last cycle low around twenty 85 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 1: twenty two, bitcoin hit about sixteen thousand dollars from sixteen 86 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: thousand dollars to one hundred and twenty six thousand dollars, 87 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 1: it's now in its third pullback of thirty percent. It's 88 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 1: third one thirty percent is just par for the course. 89 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: That's the par for the course. To be able to 90 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:41,040 Speaker 1: make write an asset from twenty thousand to one hundred 91 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: and twenty thousand, I have to be able to stomach 92 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: a few thirty percent draw downs. And so we can 93 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:49,280 Speaker 1: see this thirty percent correction, up, thirty percent correction, up, 94 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:52,599 Speaker 1: thirty percent correction, and then up. Each one of these 95 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 1: is at a higher level. So if you knew this 96 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 1: going into it, you go, wow, okay, I mean I'm 97 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:01,839 Speaker 1: will and to just ride this dip to get to 98 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: a higher level. That's exactly what's happening with bitcoin the volatility. Okay, Now, 99 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: returns and volatility are the same. You can't separate them. 100 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: You can't have the fifty percent upside without the draw 101 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 1: down back to the downside without the reset. Now, I 102 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:19,280 Speaker 1: know a lot of people like, with the benefit of hindsight, 103 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 1: go what if I just sold here and boy back 104 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: in here. We're gonna get to that in a second. 105 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 1: But the real reason that people are drawn to bitcoin 106 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 1: is that it's going up for fifty percent the year. 107 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 1: That's what they want. They want that fifty percent the year, 108 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: but you don't get the fifty percent compounding without the 109 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 1: fifty percent of volatility. You can't separate the two a 110 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: third together. So when people say bitcoin is too volatile, 111 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: what they're really saying is I want the returns, but 112 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 1: I don't want the volatility of the downside. I don't 113 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 1: want the liveliness. I don't want the movement, which you 114 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 1: can't have both. So again, you can just sit in cash. 115 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 1: You can do that, but you can't take one without 116 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 1: the other. If bitcoin stops swinging, it wouldn't be high 117 00:05:56,720 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 1: growth asset. The volatility isn't a side effect. Volatility is 118 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 1: the engine of the growth. In order to get the 119 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: big returns. You have to be willing to take a 120 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 1: ride those big swings. And so you can see right 121 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 1: here the kgar the compound and annual growth rate of assets, 122 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: So cash doesn't return anything. There's no compound annual growth 123 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 1: rate to cash bonds a little bit higher, so cash 124 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: is about a zero to one vall asset bonds is 125 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 1: about a one to four So it's only gonna move 126 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 1: by one to four percent up or down. So you're 127 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: not gonna really make any money, and aren't really gonna 128 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 1: lose any money. S and P five hundred you're about 129 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:37,599 Speaker 1: ten to fifteen percent, Nasdaq about fifteen to twenty. And 130 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 1: then we have Bitcoin all the way up here fifty, 131 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: but it swings wildly. Why volatility feels like failure? Why 132 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 1: do people get shaken out of fear? Humans experience volatility emotionally, 133 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: so everyone's so emotional into the market. And I don't 134 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,720 Speaker 1: say this callously as someone who's been in bitcoin since 135 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: twenty fifteen, I've suffered some big drawdowns. And what I 136 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:05,599 Speaker 1: can tell you is that while they get easier, and 137 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 1: I'll tell you why they get it, they get a 138 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 1: little bit easier, they don't get easy and I'm susceptible. 139 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 1: My emotion is susceptible like anybody else. And it's pulling 140 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: back at thirty percent, and news headlines are saying that 141 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: it's over and it's dead, and Quantum is going to 142 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 1: come destroyed or whatever whatever. The Government's captured it, that 143 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: Wall Street's captured it, they're going to crush it. Like 144 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: I'm susceptible too. It's our emotions that get the best 145 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 1: of us. It's not mathematics, it's not data, it's emotions. 146 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: So we feel and this is the key piece. Because 147 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: we're humans and we're emotion we feel the drops two 148 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: times more than the gains. This is the key piece. See, 149 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 1: because humans are highly attuned to danger. We have to 150 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: we have to stay alive, so you know, we have 151 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: to see the snake in the grass. So it's like, 152 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: you know, I'm on YouTube, by the way, leave me 153 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 1: some nice comments, because I could read like one hundred 154 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 1: or two hundred nice comments, and all of a sudden, 155 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,239 Speaker 1: there's like one mean one and it's like, oh, because 156 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 1: we're so attuned to fear, and so that's why we 157 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 1: feel to drop way more. The drop is way harder 158 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: than the benefit of the game. The mismatch. Investors chase 159 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 1: the high volatility returns, but unknowingly bring a low volatility expectation. 160 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 1: So I want the fifty percent upside, but I don't excoot. 161 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: If it goes more than ten percent, I'm out. They're 162 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: coming in with the wrong expectations. And if you've been 163 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 1: in any sort of like relationship gazoling, you know it's 164 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: all about today in those right expectations. This mismatch creates panic, 165 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 1: interpreting normal market breeding as catastrophic failure, like Bitcoin must 166 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: be broken, its drop thirty percent, it has to be broken. 167 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:33,559 Speaker 1: It has to be because of quantum, it has because 168 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:35,719 Speaker 1: of Wall Street, something like that, And it looks like this. 169 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 1: I call this really, I call volatility the mismatch between 170 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 1: perception and reality. Okay, this is reality. But what happens is, 171 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: oh my gosh, we're gonna get rich with bitcoin. Every 172 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: nation state's gonna buy it. Oh my gosh, Quantum's gonna 173 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: break it. Nope, Quantum's not gonna hear. Look, oh now 174 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: more nations are buying it. Oh nope. Now China wants 175 00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: to ban it, and we go back and forth with 176 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: our expectations, with our emotions. Meanwhile, it just keeps on trucking. 177 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 1: Once you know this, you start to realize that these 178 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 1: are your opportunities. The real breaker here is that you 179 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 1: have no thesis. I say it all the time. You 180 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 1: can't borrow someone else's conviction. So before you buy any asset, 181 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: I don't care what the asset is. What is it? 182 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 1: Why am I buying it? What am I expecting from it? 183 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: Why do I think it will go up over what timeframe? 184 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: I have to develop my own thesis and I have 185 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: to have my own conviction on it. And what happens 186 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 1: is that What breaks people here is they don't have 187 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: the thesis. Volatility only inflicts pain when you don't understand 188 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 1: what you bought or why you bought it. I bought Bickoe, Why, well, 189 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: because I thought it was gonna goup fifty percent? Why 190 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 1: why do I expect that? What do I expect from it? 191 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 1: How do I think that's going to work? Let me 192 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 1: give you this real estate analogy. I use it all 193 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 1: the time. If you've heard it before, I'm sorry in advance. 194 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: Everyone gets real estate. So let's just say when I 195 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,199 Speaker 1: was a full time professional, we do this. I'd go 196 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: to the city council and i'd listen what their plans 197 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:02,680 Speaker 1: are. Are they going to rezone things or they changing things 198 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: where they invest in? And I find out that about 199 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: you know, thirty forty five minutes out of town, they're 200 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: going to build a football stadium and shoot, and I mean, 201 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: that's that's like a you know, open area of land. 202 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 1: But if they build a football stadium, that land's going 203 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:16,839 Speaker 1: to be in high demand. So they said, you know, 204 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: it's gonna take about seven years to get that football 205 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:21,560 Speaker 1: stadium out there. So tomorrow morning, I get in my car, 206 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 1: I drive out there. I find a couple piece of 207 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 1: land and I buy them. Why what am I buying land? 208 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 1: Why because I think it will be more valuable in 209 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 1: the future. Why will it be more valuable because they're 210 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 1: going to build a football stadium there when in seven 211 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: years I have my thesis? Okay, Now what happens if 212 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,319 Speaker 1: a year from now lots go up for sale next 213 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 1: to my lots and they're cheaper. Do I panic? Oh 214 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 1: my gosh, why are they cheaper? Do I sell? Do 215 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 1: I buy more? I don't know. The first thing I 216 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: do is I check my thesis. Is the football stadium 217 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: still in progress? Have they got the permits? Have they 218 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 1: got the plans, have they got the financing? Have they 219 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 1: broken ground? If the thesis still intact, the football stadium 220 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,839 Speaker 1: is still being built in seven years, then I hold, 221 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 1: maybe I buy the land. How you shoot, I'll buy 222 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 1: some more at a discount. Why not? Or I hold? 223 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 1: Now if my thesis has changed or violated. So let's say, 224 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 1: for example, I look and I'm like, oh, shoot, they 225 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 1: just discovered nuclear waste there. They can't build. My thesis 226 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: is now broken. It's a breaker. Then what do I do? 227 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:23,680 Speaker 1: Then I sell as quick as I can, and maybe 228 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 1: I take a loss. So when we have volatility like 229 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 1: we have right now, Bitcoin's down thirty percent, Oh my gosh, 230 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 1: what do I do? Well? I don't know why did 231 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 1: you buy it? What was your thesis? Is your thesis 232 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 1: still intact? If your thesis is still intact, then you 233 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:40,839 Speaker 1: do nothing. Then you zoom out serious capital. The smart 234 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 1: money ask didn't the underlying story change? They don't ask 235 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 1: did the price move? They don't look at the price. 236 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: They look at the underline story. That's how warm Buffet 237 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 1: would do it. Warm Buffet would say, don't buy stocks, 238 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 1: meaning I don't look at the price. I buy companies. 239 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: The companies happen to be traded publicly. But I didn't 240 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: buy the stock, I didn't buy the price. So is 241 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: bitcoin still secure? It's still centralized network? Yes, is still decentralized. 242 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 1: It's still secure. Why would it go higher? Well, because 243 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 1: nations and central banks can keep printing money. And because 244 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 1: they keep printing money, they want to control the capital. Okay, 245 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: so by printing money and controlling capital drive people to 246 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:22,079 Speaker 1: buy a decentralized asset like bitcoin. Right, So, did governments 247 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 1: decide to stop printing money and live beyond their meanings 248 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 1: or you know, within their means? No? Did they decide 249 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: to give us all our freedom back and take away 250 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: capital controls? No? Well, then my thesis is still intact. 251 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:34,680 Speaker 1: You could ask yourself, and this is this kind of 252 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 1: illustrates that market price the thesis value, and just ask yourself, like, 253 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 1: what are the odds the probabilities that governments stop printing 254 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 1: money and live within their means? What are the odds 255 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 1: that government said to give you all your freedom back 256 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 1: and no longer do capital controls? I mean it's like, 257 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:52,319 Speaker 1: you know, less than one percent, But that's the thesis. Okay, 258 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 1: Now if we apply that lens to bitcoin Bitcoin's purpose 259 00:12:55,760 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 1: hasn't changed digital scarcity. Digital scarcity remains absolute regardless of 260 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:03,320 Speaker 1: the price. Is there more than twenty one million bit 261 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: quin No? Can they make moree and twenty one million? No? Now, 262 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,599 Speaker 1: if they find a way to do it, maybe my 263 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: thesis changed as of right now, it's not. Since twenty fourteen, 264 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: it's weathered four draw downs of more than fifty percent, 265 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:18,199 Speaker 1: some of them seventy eighty percent. Crazy. Each was a 266 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 1: redistribution event. It's a key piece. Each was a redistribution event, 267 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: not the end. What do I mean by redistribution? Well, 268 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 1: the old saying and investing is that you're supposed to 269 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 1: buy low and sell high. Right, Easier said than done. Well, 270 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: most people do is they buy high because they're here 271 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 1: and everyone making money, and then they sell low and 272 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 1: their redistribution going from the weekends the impatient hands to 273 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 1: the strong patient hands. Distribution recoveries take time six months, 274 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 1: but the system rewards endurance over timing. So we might 275 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,960 Speaker 1: have to weather in this. We have to weather this 276 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: draw down and it could take six months. So what 277 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:57,440 Speaker 1: have endurance now? One of the first rules of investing 278 00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 1: in Warren Buffett says, don't lose money but you're always 279 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:03,599 Speaker 1: going to lose money investing. It's impossible. But what I 280 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 1: think is the most important rule of investing is never 281 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 1: be a forced seller. So what does that mean? That 282 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: means that if I'm inpatient. Let's say that I needed 283 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 1: the money in thirty days to pay for college tuition, 284 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:18,680 Speaker 1: or pay my taxes, or pay for a wedding, I 285 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 1: needed in sixty days ninety days, but then it dips. Shoot, 286 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 1: I need the money right now. I don't have the time, 287 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 1: I don't have the endurance to wait for it to 288 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 1: get back up. I got to sell right now. Well, 289 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 1: then I'm going to take the loss. So what we 290 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 1: want to do is we want to think about our 291 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 1: time and money and how it relates to volatility. So 292 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: what do I mean about time and volatility? So the 293 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 1: lower the volatility cash being zero to one, bonds one 294 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: to four, SMP, etc. Is the time frame that I 295 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: have to wait or think about. So, for example, there's 296 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: been no point in Biquin's history that you could have 297 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: bought any peak and not been back in profit within 298 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: four years. So it's like a four year asset. With 299 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 1: real estate, saying was always don't buy a house that 300 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 1: you don't plan to a hold at least for five years. 301 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 1: So you want to think about the money that you 302 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 1: have and the timeframe that you needed. So for example, again, 303 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: if I have to pay something in thirty sixty ninety days, 304 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 1: I don't want to put that into something highly volatile 305 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 1: a four year asset. I want to put into a 306 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: low ball asset like cash or money market or bonds. 307 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 1: If I have money that can sit for longer a 308 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: year or two, maybe that goes in like sn PP 309 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: five hundred and AZTEC. If it can sit even longer 310 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 1: four years or more, it can go into bitcoin. The 311 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 1: problem comes when I'm trying to take a high ball 312 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: asset like bitcoin long duration four years and apply a 313 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 1: three month or six month timeframe to it. That's the problem. Now. 314 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 1: The other thing is back through the myth of the 315 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: perfect timing. So again in hindsight, you're like, oh, why 316 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 1: don't I just sell here and buy backing here? Here's 317 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: why you ever heard the saying never try to catch 318 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: a falling knife. That's a term that we talk about 319 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 1: in investing, is that when markets are going down, we're 320 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 1: not trying to time the bottom and catch it perfectly. 321 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 1: Typically in investing what you'd want to do is wait 322 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: for the bottom to form, show that there's signs of 323 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: a bottom for me, and it's coming back up, and 324 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 1: then we come back in. So we're not trying to 325 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:04,960 Speaker 1: time the bottom and catch a falling knife, wait for 326 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: the knife to hit and then pick it up. But 327 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 1: here's the problem with bitcoin. The problem with bitcoin is 328 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: because it's so volatile, because it has so much interges, 329 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: it has so much vitality, it moves really really fast. 330 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 1: And what happens is if you miss the best day, 331 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: you miss most of the returns. And as a matter 332 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 1: of fact, the best day is typically right after the 333 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: worst day, so you'd literally be having to catch or 334 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 1: trying to catch falling knives constantly to get it. Let 335 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 1: me give you an example here. So in bitcoin the 336 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one bowl market, we saw that over the 337 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 1: top ten days the return if I was in the 338 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: market during the top ten days, I made one hundred 339 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: and seven nine percent return. If I take the top 340 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: ten days out the other three hundred fifty five days, 341 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: I would have lost forty three percent. So the cost 342 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:52,600 Speaker 1: of sitting out of those days means that I was 343 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: taking a loss even in a bull market, even in 344 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 1: this great return, because remember the price is going like this, 345 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 1: so if I miss these best days, my returns get 346 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: cut in half. Now, the same is true in the 347 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 1: S and P. Five hundred, but it's not as volatile, 348 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 1: so it's not as critical. So S and P five 349 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:11,679 Speaker 1: hundred historically annulyzed is nine point two percent. So in 350 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred, if you look out 351 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 1: over decades, it's about a nine percent return. However, if 352 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 1: I missed just the ten best days in the S 353 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: and P five hundred, my returns were cut in half 354 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 1: from nine percent to five percent. Even in the S 355 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 1: and P five hundred. But again because Bitcoin is so 356 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 1: much more volatile, so much more vital than just missing 357 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:30,880 Speaker 1: the ten best days. Take me from a huge profit 358 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 1: one seventy nine, not nine one seventy nine, but take 359 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:37,199 Speaker 1: me from that to a loss. And that's why we 360 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 1: don't want to get out of the market. We just 361 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: want to hold through the volatility or even better yet, 362 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 1: use the down parts to add to our positions because 363 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: we have a conviction, because we have our own thesis. Okay, 364 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: why waiting feels safe and it isn't so fear convinced 365 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 1: the investors that waiting is prudent, But volatility says step 366 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,640 Speaker 1: aside until it's safe. So right now people are like, oh, 367 00:17:57,800 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: the market's too dangerous. It used to be one twenty 368 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: five right now. I don't know eighty five, eighty ninety thousand, 369 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: but I don't know it could go lower. It's unsafe 370 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 1: right now, so i'll weight, I'll weight. I don't want 371 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 1: to catch the fall knife. I'll wait till it reforms. 372 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 1: But the biggest updates, as I just said, are the 373 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: cluster during the highly volatile part. So when you step 374 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 1: aside and you wait, then you're basically saying I'm willing 375 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 1: to just wait and miss the biggest return days. That's 376 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 1: what you're basically saying, which, of course you don't want 377 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,159 Speaker 1: to do that. Let's just reframe this whole narrative just 378 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 1: so I can set it right in your brain. Okay, 379 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 1: Big one's volatility isn't a bug. But it's too volatile. 380 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 1: That's a good thing. It's the system working as it's designed. 381 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: We have a fixed supply asset going through a monetary transition. 382 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 1: It's going to be volatile. That's the design. I want 383 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 1: it to outperform everything. But I have to understand that 384 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:47,959 Speaker 1: it's going to be a little bit volatile, it's going 385 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 1: to be lively. It represents pure price discovery. That's what 386 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 1: we're seeing right now, a fixed supply asset being absorbed 387 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 1: by or absorbing the monetary system. It is occurring under 388 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: conditions of absolute scarcity. It's the mechanism that he distributes 389 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 1: wealth from the end patient who can't stomach the volatility, 390 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: to the patient people like me who are going to 391 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:10,640 Speaker 1: sit back and just wait. Okay. Finally, the final perspective 392 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: that I want you to leave this with volatility. It's 393 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 1: always going to exist. It exists in everything. There's never 394 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 1: been an asset that I've ever seen in the history 395 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:20,200 Speaker 1: of the world that has gone up in a straight 396 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 1: line or even down in a straight line, even when 397 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,199 Speaker 1: an asset is crashing and it still has bounces. Okay. 398 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: So volatility is always going to exist. It's the heartbeat 399 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,640 Speaker 1: of a living monetary network. It's always going to feel 400 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:36,159 Speaker 1: unomfortable because it's always going to challenge your assumptions, and 401 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 1: it's always going to pull on our emotions, which are 402 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:42,200 Speaker 1: highly attuned to risk, and try to remove our rational 403 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 1: thought behind it. The market consistently removes participants who rent 404 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 1: the price. So warm Buffer says, I don't buy stock. 405 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: I don't buy the price. Those the market persons who 406 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 1: rent the price versus who own the protocol, who own 407 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,920 Speaker 1: the asset, who own the company. That's what warm Buffett said. 408 00:19:57,920 --> 00:19:59,679 Speaker 1: All right now, if you want to know how I 409 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 1: use bitcoin, and it's fifty vall asset, it's high returns 410 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 1: to leverage that asset to use the same wealth strategy 411 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,440 Speaker 1: as the one percent used that we're only available to 412 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 1: the one percent until we got the cheat code. What 413 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,120 Speaker 1: I think bitcoin is this high ball asset. You might 414 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 1: want to check out the live event I'm doing called 415 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,359 Speaker 1: the Wealth Operating System Accelerator. I'm gonna go live right 416 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: from the stage for a couple of days. There's a 417 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 1: link down below here if you want to check it out. 418 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 1: A proticcure code on the screen right here. We're to 419 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:28,119 Speaker 1: learn how to take bitcoin and then put it into 420 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 1: a wealth accumulation strategy and what I call the wealth OS. 421 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 1: So check out the link down below. We're gonna do 422 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,199 Speaker 1: it all live. It's going to be workshop style, so 423 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 1: you can do the work while you're watching along. I'm 424 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,360 Speaker 1: only going to do it one time in twenty twenty six, 425 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,199 Speaker 1: so don't miss it. Check it out. And that's what 426 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,199 Speaker 1: I got, all right, don't say you're bitcoin. Hold on 427 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 1: to your success. I'm out.