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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. Wow. We are heading down to

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Speaker 1: the final days of the season, which means there's so

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Speaker 1: much judging to be done, not just of me, but

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Speaker 1: by me, not just of Scooch, but by Scooch. Later

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Speaker 1: on in the show, Simon Hunter Professional Better and Darren

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Speaker 1: Ravel non professional Better, we'll come on the show. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about the picks we want to make four

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Speaker 1: the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest, five picks every week

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Speaker 1: when in one point five million dollars if we finished

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Speaker 1: first in this pick up contest. Not a very good week.

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Speaker 1: Last week two and three did not go well. Darren's

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Speaker 1: gonna want to rip me from my Eagles pick. Uh,

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Speaker 1: but we're gonna stay strong. Also, we're gonna preview Darren's

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Speaker 1: next points Bet Fade Revel task. If you missed it

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Speaker 1: last week, please go to Darren's Twitter handle. Darren had

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Speaker 1: bet on Jimmy Garoppolo under one and a half touchdowns

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Speaker 1: at points bet dot Com. The Fade Revel bonus was

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Speaker 1: you bet over and you get seriously boosted odds. I

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Speaker 1: think it was like over one and a half touchdowns

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Speaker 1: is plus one fifty or something like that. Jimmy Garoppolo

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Speaker 1: through for two touchdowns. Darren Revel had to take a

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Speaker 1: three minute ice bath, which we live streamed on Action

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Speaker 1: Network HQ at Action Network HQ on Twitter and revel

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Speaker 1: tweeter live stream did as well. It was three minutes

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Speaker 1: of pure agony for him and three minutes of pure

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Speaker 1: joy for everybody watching. It was too too funny. This

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Speaker 1: week he will do something with the Texans and the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: and he just tweeted out a hint as to what

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Speaker 1: we'll be doing, but it could potentially involve bodily harm

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Speaker 1: and a mechanical bull. But before we get to that,

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Speaker 1: let's welcome in bookmaker to the world from the Orleans

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Speaker 1: representing all the BOYD Gaming books. Mr Bob Scucci, my

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Speaker 1: man Chad. What's going on? Thanksgiving is upon us? It is?

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Speaker 1: Can you believe how quickly it came to that? I

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Speaker 1: really can't. Every year seems to go by quicker and quicker,

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Speaker 1: but this year really flew by. I'm a little sad

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Speaker 1: about all of it. Why is that? I don't know?

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Speaker 1: Football is fun. Football is a really important moment for

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Speaker 1: our business at the Action Network. I'm a little sad

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Speaker 1: it's coming to such a quick close. I wish it

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Speaker 1: was a little bit longer because it's you know, good

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Speaker 1: for us, and um, I like it. It gives me

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Speaker 1: excuse to not have to talk to everybody on Sundays

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Speaker 1: because I'm quote working end quote. That's the real reason

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Speaker 1: I get it. It's not an unimportant part of the

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Speaker 1: of the of the equation. Look, my kids are great,

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Speaker 1: my wife is fantastic. They want to spend less and

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Speaker 1: less time with me is the days go on. Um,

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Speaker 1: it's not like on Sundays we're out apple picking. You know,

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Speaker 1: We're not your classic New England family that wants to

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Speaker 1: spend the whole day together in the brusque fall weather. Like. Generally,

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Speaker 1: if I can get them to have brunch with me

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Speaker 1: for an hour and like, then we go about our day,

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Speaker 1: everyone feels pretty good. You get it, Scooch. I do also.

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Speaker 1: I generally like to spend most of Sunday morning prepping

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Speaker 1: for our most amazing radio show that has ever been

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Speaker 1: produced in the history of audio, The Action Network count

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Speaker 1: Down to Kickoff on Radio dot Com, the Radio dot

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Speaker 1: Com app, which is also now streaming on at Action

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Speaker 1: Network ah Q, dude, when you have like five thousand,

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Speaker 1: ten thousand, fifty thousand dollar bets coming in not just

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Speaker 1: on NFL games, but on freaking college basketball games in

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Speaker 1: the middle of all that action, and like your your

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Speaker 1: head is is not literally but figuratively on a swivel,

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Speaker 1: constantly moving around looking at your screens, trying to keep

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Speaker 1: up with the action and explain what's happening to simpletons

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Speaker 1: like me. That is unmatchable, unmatchable, visceral like activity, you know,

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Speaker 1: And it's kind of second nature to me after all

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Speaker 1: these years of looking at four screens and and kind

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Speaker 1: of being on the phone and multitasking. You know. I've

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Speaker 1: been in conversations with people at the sports book and

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Speaker 1: they say your eyes are always shifting around, like you know,

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Speaker 1: I come across as like they're like, what are you

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Speaker 1: looking for it? I said, it's just have it. I'm

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Speaker 1: constantly looking at two or three things at the same time.

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Speaker 1: And uh so, so yes, Sunday mornings, you know, were

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Speaker 1: having bets coming in on college basketball, NBA, hockey, NFL

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Speaker 1: as we're doing the show. Pretty exciting stuff. Well, listen,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have to keep your eye on three games

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Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving, I know that your beautiful bride will basically

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Speaker 1: tell you don't come back until the games are over

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Speaker 1: because you're just going to be preoccupied. So, um, we

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Speaker 1: should talk about these games right and on the Action

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Speaker 1: Network podcast this Week hosted by uh Scucci and Colin

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Speaker 1: Wilson on Monday, I'm not Scucci, Stucky and Colin Wilson

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Speaker 1: On Monday, I got Scucci on the Brain. I wish

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Speaker 1: you did host everything we do, Scoot, you'd be amazing

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Speaker 1: at it. Um, thank you. He had a great stuck.

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Speaker 1: He had a great line like, if you're ever gonna

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Speaker 1: get to know your family on Thanksgiving, it's going to

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Speaker 1: be during the Bears Lions game, Like nobody's gonna want

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Speaker 1: to watch that game. Well, it's different out here on

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Speaker 1: the West Coast because that game starts so early. That's

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Speaker 1: kind of like when everybody's prepping for whatever they're doing

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Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. I mean that game is over by twelve

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Speaker 1: thirty our time, so that most people haven't even left

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Speaker 1: their house to to to go to their families yet.

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Speaker 1: Uh So it's a little different, you know. Ever since

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Speaker 1: they added the third game, though it was about two

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Speaker 1: thousand and six, I think they added that third game

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Speaker 1: to the day. Was just made it for the bookies,

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Speaker 1: just the complete day. If you want to get away

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Speaker 1: from the family, that that's that's the excuse. So sorry,

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Speaker 1: you know, they added another game. I'm from morning till night.

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Speaker 1: I won't be I won't be home till about nine

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Speaker 1: o'clock tonight. Oh my god, that's too good. What's that

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Speaker 1: are just going to say? I was gonna say I

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Speaker 1: was doing. I was talking to another publication the other

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Speaker 1: day about Thanksgiving and they were like reflecting on some

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Speaker 1: of the worst beats on Thanksgiving and things like that,

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Speaker 1: and the Leon Lett fumble and the Mark Sanchez butt fumble,

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Speaker 1: all the kind of things that stand out, and I

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Speaker 1: started thinking that I can't remember a day where we

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Speaker 1: won all three games. And going back, even before they

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Speaker 1: were playing three games, it was always either we lose

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Speaker 1: both games or we split. And since the three games

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Speaker 1: UH in two thousand six, we either lose two of

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Speaker 1: the three games or we lose all three. We've we

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Speaker 1: have never had just a day where we swept all three.

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Speaker 1: So just that's why I'm always in a bad mood

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Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. There should be a song the Scoots should

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Speaker 1: make a song about that we should bad Thanksgiving Scooch.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about this Bears Lions game. The Bears are

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Speaker 1: three point favorites three mins twenty at the Orleans. You

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Speaker 1: can explain to people with three minus twenty means, if

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Speaker 1: they're new to the podcast, Detroit's quarterback is undecided. I'm

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Speaker 1: surprised you've got a number up at all. What's your

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Speaker 1: anticipation here, Well, he's listed as doubtful and they've been

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Speaker 1: playing without him, without Stafford for a while anyway, so

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Speaker 1: we're we're kind of leaning towards him, uh not playing.

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Speaker 1: And I think some of the professionals agree with us

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Speaker 1: because we hung too on this game and it actually

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Speaker 1: got driven up to three minus twenty. And what that

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Speaker 1: means is if you bet the Bears, you're not only

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Speaker 1: laying minus three, but you have to lay a dollar

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Speaker 1: twenty to win a dollar instead of just a normal

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Speaker 1: dollar ten to win a dollar. So money on the

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Speaker 1: Bears um sharp money on the Bears. I think they

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Speaker 1: were just kind of grabbing the number realizing it would

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Speaker 1: probably go up. We typically inflate the favorites on Thanksgiving Day. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be a half a point a point shaded

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Speaker 1: towards the favorite. Anyway, the sharp guys usually take the

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Speaker 1: underdogs on on Thanksgiving knowing that they're gonna be getting

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Speaker 1: more value there. We know that the people come to

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Speaker 1: come to Vegas for Thanksgiving holiday, plus all the locals

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Speaker 1: that that live here that want to bet on the game,

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Speaker 1: they all bet favorite and over, favorite and over and

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Speaker 1: automatic six team parlay favorites and over. So we could

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Speaker 1: try to be on the high side with that and uh,

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Speaker 1: but in this case, it looks like we weren't high

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Speaker 1: enough to begin with. So um line got driven to

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Speaker 1: three twenty. If if Stafford is definitely out, if it

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Speaker 1: comes out he's definitely out, the line probably goes up

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Speaker 1: to four. And if it comes comes across these probable

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Speaker 1: then the line comes down probably about Chicago one and

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Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, that's a tough one, Like, how do

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Speaker 1: you know, how do you not just hold off on

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Speaker 1: this until you know what? It was? Only two days?

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Speaker 1: You hold off, But dude, dude, let me finish, Let

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Speaker 1: me finish. You hold off. No, no, you hold off

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Speaker 1: until nine twenty a m. Pacific twelve pm Eastern before

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Speaker 1: you make that bet. Oh, before you make the bet.

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Speaker 1: That's what you're going to say as a as a

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Speaker 1: sorry sorry I cut you off there, Yeah, I was there. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I definitely hold off until until you know for sure.

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Speaker 1: I mean again, going back to kind of Thanksgiving that

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Speaker 1: really stand out in my mind. There was one year

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Speaker 1: where Troy Aikman was questionable and that line moved four

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Speaker 1: points one way that four points of the other way,

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Speaker 1: because first he was going to be suiting up to play,

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Speaker 1: and then right before game time it came he was

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Speaker 1: definitely out. And uh, it's definitely no fun when you

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Speaker 1: have a top tier quarterback, it's questionable on the morning

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Speaker 1: of Thanksgiving. Then we got we got the Cowboys visiting,

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Speaker 1: we got the Buffalo Bills visiting Dallas. Jerry Joe's this

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Speaker 1: week basically acting like everything in the world is on

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Speaker 1: Jason Garrett. And look, if I'm Jason Garrett, i am

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Speaker 1: I kicking a field goal at down seven on the

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Speaker 1: fourth and seven from in the red zone when I

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Speaker 1: might not get the ball back. That is just insanity,

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Speaker 1: bad coaching, really talented team that is underperforming. Doesn't sound

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Speaker 1: like he's gonna last much last after the season, but

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Speaker 1: you've got him as a seven point Excuse me, I

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Speaker 1: just had lunch. You've got him as a seven point

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Speaker 1: favorite here, seven, but it's close, closer to six and

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Speaker 1: a half. And as a matter of fact, just prior

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Speaker 1: to coming on the air, I was talking with with

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Speaker 1: Jake down in the Hub and we were kind of

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Speaker 1: deciding whether to go to six and a half now

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Speaker 1: and before we get a wise guy play, or if

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Speaker 1: we should just leave it at seven knowing that the

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Speaker 1: public is going to lay the Cowboys and then, like

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Speaker 1: you just said, wait till Thursday morning and before we

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Speaker 1: move it to six and a half. But the sharp

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Speaker 1: guys are definitely gonna take Buffalo in this one. They

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Speaker 1: are not gonna lay seven points. They're gonna take seven points.

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Speaker 1: So it's just a question of when we go to

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Speaker 1: six and a half. I mean, the Bills are another

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Speaker 1: one of those teams that the public is just going

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Speaker 1: to keep riding. Uh they cash tickets with him last

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Speaker 1: week again. Uh, you know, the team's eight and three

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Speaker 1: and they've got some really nice win and you know

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Speaker 1: that their defense keeps them, keeps them in games, and

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Speaker 1: and their offenses is actually starting to be a little

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Speaker 1: bit better than the beginning of the season. Do Do

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Speaker 1: Do Do Do Do? Do Do do do do do do

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Speaker 1: do do do do do. I got breaking news, breaking news,

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Speaker 1: breaking news. Yeah, line change, you saw the New Orleans.

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Speaker 1: Get out of Buffalo, Man, get out of Dallas. Let's

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Speaker 1: go right to New Oh oh the line change. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: tell us what's happening? What am I seeing right now? Well,

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Speaker 1: it's like I said, Chicago, the sharp guys are laying

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Speaker 1: the bear the bear. So we were uh we we

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Speaker 1: we moved into three minus twenty. We took one bet

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Speaker 1: on Detroit, but not enough to to move the minus three.

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Speaker 1: We just took enough on Detroit to just go back

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Speaker 1: from three minus twenty to three minus fifteen. Even at

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Speaker 1: three minus fifteen, we're the highest I think of any

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Speaker 1: place here in town, and even some places out of town.

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Speaker 1: I think some places are at two and a half

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Speaker 1: and most places are at three flat. So we're still

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Speaker 1: high on the Bears. And we also just moved Dallas

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Speaker 1: to seven even money because we're getting some more money

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Speaker 1: on the Bears. I think I'm I'm gonna as soon

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Speaker 1: as as soon as we're off the air, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: call down the hub and have a discussion about whether

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Speaker 1: or not we stay at six and a half on

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Speaker 1: this and we still haven't decided on this. Well, no,

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Speaker 1: you're at seven even money on Dallas and you're at

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Speaker 1: minus seven minus twenty on New Orleans, which you just

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Speaker 1: moved to. Yeah, we just took some more money on

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Speaker 1: the on the Saints, and there's a there's another team

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Speaker 1: we know because it's the late game on Thursday, and

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Speaker 1: like I said, with a comes Favorite and over, it

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Speaker 1: becomes Bears it over and Dallas and over. This game

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Speaker 1: is going to be about four times as big as

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Speaker 1: the other two games combined. So we're trying to head

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Speaker 1: that off now, trying to get a little money on

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Speaker 1: Atlanta early, because we know that by Thursday night it'll

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Speaker 1: be tough to get Atlanta money. All the public will

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Speaker 1: be on New Orleans and at that point the sharp

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Speaker 1: guys may not want to take seven. The sharp guys

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Speaker 1: may be looking for seven and a half by that time.

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Speaker 1: So best to get the Atlanta money now while we can.

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Speaker 1: Green Bay visiting New York Giants. Green Bay six and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorite coming off of slacking, But Danny dimes,

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Speaker 1: it's more like Danny drops the ball. Yeah, yeah, this

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Speaker 1: was boy. The you know, the people have gotten all

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Speaker 1: the Packer den wagon and we talked a little bit

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Speaker 1: about it. Kell's that one point. Uh, we're one of

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Speaker 1: the top three in the NFC as far as the

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Speaker 1: rankings go. And uh, they had a couple of real

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Speaker 1: bad losses and then made them drop and uh, just

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Speaker 1: when it seemed like they were kind of creeping back up,

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Speaker 1: they get shellacked. I mean to give credit to uh,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I mean in this game. This is a

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Speaker 1: little different because they're playing a bad team like the Giants.

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Speaker 1: Right right now, the ticket count is about six to

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Speaker 1: one Packers to Giants. So, um, when I say the

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Speaker 1: public is awful, they're not completely off them. Uh, they

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Speaker 1: just don't have the confidence that they did at one point. Uh.

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Speaker 1: There's just no reason to bet on the Giants right now.

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Speaker 1: So Packers on the road minus six and a half.

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Speaker 1: I could see this line probably going up as well,

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Speaker 1: being that we've got six to one ratio of bets

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Speaker 1: on Packers to Giants. Just sharp guys haven't weighed in yet.

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Speaker 1: That's the only thing I don't know they're going to

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Speaker 1: anytime soon. Not a great number two teams that you

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Speaker 1: can't get a read on. Late in the year, Packers

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Speaker 1: fading Jones not really performing up to expectations after the

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Speaker 1: first couple of weeks. Dwayne Haskins, however, if he can

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Speaker 1: make it back out of the field, if he can remember,

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Speaker 1: he's got to play the full game. Visiting the Carolina Panthers,

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Speaker 1: He's a ten point underdog against Kyle Allen, who has

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Speaker 1: continued to regress. Had a really nice game against the

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Speaker 1: Saints in the second half, got uh, you know, it

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Speaker 1: was not treated nicely by the Panthers field goal kicker

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Speaker 1: who missed a very easy field go wide right, and

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you were on Saints drive down

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Speaker 1: the field. Anything in sports more inevitable than Drew Brees,

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Speaker 1: no matter where he is in the field, getting his

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Speaker 1: team in a field coal position with a d and

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Speaker 1: twenty seconds or less left on the clock. I've been

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Speaker 1: watching it for fifteen years, and uh, you know, give him,

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Speaker 1: give him the ball with any time left. And uh,

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Speaker 1: even even if there's a couple of seconds left, and

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Speaker 1: I've seen him kind get them into field goal range.

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Speaker 1: It's too easy. Ten points is a lot of points

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Speaker 1: against the Redskins for a Carolina team. Anyone doing anything

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Speaker 1: with this game yet, I mean, the public is all

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Speaker 1: over the Panthers. I mean, there's about sevent the bets

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Speaker 1: that are on the Panthers. And I think what I

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Speaker 1: was talking about on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, about the public

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Speaker 1: being on the favorites, that's going to carry over in

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Speaker 1: through the whole weekend. There's a lot of people that

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Speaker 1: have the four day weekend that either visiting here in

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Speaker 1: Vegas or now that sports books are all over the

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Speaker 1: country now visiting their local sports book on on Thanksgiving

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Speaker 1: Day weekend, We're going to see a lot of inflated favorites.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be opportunities for the sharp guys to

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Speaker 1: get good numbers, but they still have to win the game.

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Speaker 1: And we've seen weekends where a lot of the favorites

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Speaker 1: have covered on Thanksgiving Day weekend and it turns out

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Speaker 1: to be, you know, one of the worst weekends of

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Speaker 1: the football season for the bookmakers. But that's the reason

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Speaker 1: you're just going to see some of these lines that

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Speaker 1: are pretty high. Normally, I would say a team the

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Speaker 1: Panthers isn't a team that can be laying double digits

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Speaker 1: against you know, almost anybody and it's almost an automatic take.

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Speaker 1: But having said that, the sharp guys haven't taken the

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Speaker 1: ten yet, so a little concerning there. I gotta talk

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Speaker 1: about this next game because it could be a Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl preview. Jimmy Garoppolo, the San Francisco forty Niners visiting

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Speaker 1: m VP candidate Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, who

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Speaker 1: just annihilated last year's Super Bowls contender from the NFC,

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Speaker 1: the Rams, really making them look bad, which only makes

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Speaker 1: the public love the Ravens even more. There's six point

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Speaker 1: favorites at home. That number feels high to me, It's

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Speaker 1: way high. So we made them the line for prior

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Speaker 1: to the Ravens blowing out the Rams on Monday nights.

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Speaker 1: So basically two point adjustment and probably not enough of

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Speaker 1: an adjustment with the forty Niners big win on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: So you know, what we've seen from the public in

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Speaker 1: big games like this is two really great teams playing

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Speaker 1: each other. They're gonna gravitate towards the underdog. We've seen

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Speaker 1: it in college. It's a it's a trend away from

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Speaker 1: what it used to be for many years, where they

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Speaker 1: would just automatically bet the favorites. They bet the favorites

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Speaker 1: in regular season against mediocre teams. But when two great

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Speaker 1: teams match up against each other and they can't quite

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Speaker 1: make up their mind, they'll lean towards the underdog. And

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Speaker 1: that's even when the underdog is only getting three or

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Speaker 1: four points. In a case where the underdog is getting

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Speaker 1: six points, they're gonna be all over the forty Niners

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Speaker 1: in this one. I do think that's a little high.

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Speaker 1: But on the other hand, this Ravens team is so

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Speaker 1: explosive and and and so good. Um, but they're going

339
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Speaker 1: up against the forty Niners team that might be the

340
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Speaker 1: best defenses you know, we've seen in a while. So yes,

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Speaker 1: we're on the high side. And if anything, it's gonna

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Speaker 1: go down, it's not going to go up. Um, we'll

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Speaker 1: probably see this line come towards what we originally wanted

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Speaker 1: to make it, which was four. So if you like

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Speaker 1: to Niners, get him now, I think so. I think

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Speaker 1: it's going to go down, all right. Why does it

347
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:11,399
Speaker 1: feel like there's a Pantheon Cup game every single weekend? Now?

348
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Speaker 1: Like I don't ever want to see a f C

349
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Speaker 1: Sales teams played each other ever again, and yet that

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Speaker 1: seems to be all we get. We got Tennessee visiting

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis Indianapolis minus three m plus one as favorites. Um boy,

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Speaker 1: there's nothing to say about this game. It's like we've

353
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Speaker 1: we talked about every week, when when the two teams,

354
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 1: when when any of the teams play in this Pantheon Cup.

355
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 1: It's like the home team is laying three points and

356
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 1: nobody knows what to do with it. Uh. Last week,

357
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Speaker 1: tend to see with a three point favorite at home.

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Speaker 1: If you remember, on our Sunday show, right about twenty

359
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Speaker 1: minutes before kickoff, we just got buried with sharp money

360
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Speaker 1: on Tennessee. We went to four and a half from three,

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00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,159
Speaker 1: and they were the only ones betting the game. The

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Speaker 1: public did, you know, wasn't interested at all. Uh. And

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00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,200
Speaker 1: those are usually indications that it was the right side,

364
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 1: and it turned out it was I think Tennessee one

365
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Speaker 1: by about twenty. So those are moves to look for.

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Speaker 1: You know, we always said the late move is the

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00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 1: correct move, especially twenty one minutes before kickoff in a

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Speaker 1: game that nobody else cares about. When you see that

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Speaker 1: one move big, it's it's pretty strong play. That's why

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Speaker 1: people have to listen to the show on Sunday mornings.

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Speaker 1: Like that, is an actionable piece of incredibly thoughtful advice

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Speaker 1: that people can win money on. You have said for years, Scooch,

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00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 1: it's a scooch is um? What was that? Is that

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00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 1: your alarment? You got somewhere to go, You got another

375
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 1: publication to talk to. The late move is the correct

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00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 1: move and that was a money making move because the

377
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:51,160
Speaker 1: Titans blew them out. Al Pacino coached his best game

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Speaker 1: of the year for the Titans to get them into

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Speaker 1: the Pantheon Cup class. What do we do? What do

380
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,440
Speaker 1: we do with Carson Wentz who is just regressing beyond

381
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 1: anything anyone expected? There what nine and a half point

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00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 1: favorites on the road against the Dolphins. Look, I was

383
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 1: way off the Dolphins this past week. I thought like

384
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 1: that's hide had sort of crested. For a lack of

385
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 1: a better term, but I don't like. You give me

386
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 1: a fading, struggling Eagles team and a quarterback who can't

387
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 1: really seem to find the magic that got him to

388
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 1: convert every third down a couple of years ago, versus

389
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 1: a Ryan Fitzpatrick lead team that does not give up

390
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 1: Like they were down twenty eight nothing and midway through

391
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 1: the fourth I was worried about my cover. Yeah, no,

392
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 1: they are tenacious now, aren't. I'm going to take the

393
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 1: Dolphins in this game. Yeah, it seems like the the

394
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,239
Speaker 1: the right move. I mean, like last week, I think

395
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 1: you said the bloom was off the rows on on

396
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 1: betting on the Dolphins, and you picked the right time

397
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 1: to to to jump off them at some point. You know,

398
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 1: we kept lowering their power rankings until we created value

399
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 1: on them because they were so low. And then once

400
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 1: we did see that there was a little fight in

401
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 1: this team and they didn't, uh, you know, totally give

402
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,199
Speaker 1: up on on the whole year, we realized they can

403
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 1: be competitive, especially when they're getting double digits. Uh, they're

404
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 1: not quite getting double digits here, but it's close. Nine

405
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 1: and a half of the is the spread. I think

406
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 1: we're probably close to going to nine though. I think

407
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 1: everyone else is feeling the same thing in terms of

408
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 1: the sharp guys. The public is still on Philly in

409
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 1: this one. Um. I mean, you know, Philly just don't

410
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,479
Speaker 1: they They haven't had any weapons, uh at all. Their

411
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 1: whole team is hurt, I mean without they started the

412
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Speaker 1: year with the Sean Jackson and Darren Sproles and Alston

413
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Speaker 1: Jeffrey and Nelson Aguilard. All those guys were out last game,

414
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:54,400
Speaker 1: so they had so so Wentz had absolutely no weapons

415
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Speaker 1: to throw to. Uh. It was really I have really

416
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 1: liked Philly going into that game against the Seahawks, and

417
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 1: I thought that was a good spot for them until

418
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 1: all these injuries came across and uh, and that's just

419
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 1: really key. I mean, without all those guys, it's really

420
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,680
Speaker 1: tough to to go up against any a good team

421
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Speaker 1: like Seattle. So here against Miami, they don't have the

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Speaker 1: defense that Seattle has. But Jeffrey is still questionable and

423
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 1: and so was Nelson aguilar So I think there's another game.

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Speaker 1: Just have to pay attention as to whether those two

425
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Speaker 1: guys are are going to be playing or not. Last week,

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Speaker 1: I was all over the New York Jets. I thought

427
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,640
Speaker 1: they were the best play on the board at plus three.

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Speaker 1: I wrote a story about it on Action network dot Com.

429
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 1: Thought none of the metrics matched up to equal the

430
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 1: Raiders having the record they had. Pythagorean wins were way off.

431
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 1: They were playing above expectations based on points allowed and

432
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:53,440
Speaker 1: points scored. More points allowed than scored. That indicates a

433
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,159
Speaker 1: team that is overperforming. You get a team like that,

434
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 1: there's a three point favorite on the road against a

435
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 1: team with a good rush defense. Uh, that was a

436
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 1: match made in heaven. Genius move on my part, really

437
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 1: bringing all my talents to bear and identifying the opportunity.

438
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Now you yourself on the back wide,

439
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 1: don't you give yourself some credit? You're so humble. I

440
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: give thanks for me. I give thanks for everything I've

441
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 1: learned over the past twenty years of doing this. Oakland

442
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: is a ten point dog at home against the Chiefs.

443
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 1: I believe the Chiefs are on a bye off of

444
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 1: bye am. I right, yep, come on ye the Andy

445
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 1: Reid bump, the Andy Reid bump. Okay Uh. I'll say

446
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 1: one thing though, and one thing that I kind of

447
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 1: adhere too, is coaches that look ahead in schedules for

448
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 1: key games and not that they're not that they're trying

449
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 1: to lose a game, but maybe they're not taking that

450
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 1: game as serious as as the week following and knowing

451
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: that they were going to be playing the Chiefs. It's

452
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 1: easy to see them once once that game was kind

453
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 1: of out of hand against the jetz this is the

454
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 1: game they want and as ten point underdogs. I think

455
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 1: there's tremendous value on the Raiders and this one. The

456
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 1: sharp guys have already kind of tipped their hand that, uh,

457
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: they kind of feel the same way Thanksgiving Day weekend.

458
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 1: We're a little inflated on this line anyway. This line

459
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: should probably be around eight eight and a half, so

460
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 1: the ten being somewhat of a key number this type

461
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 1: of division game, I would expect a different Raiders team

462
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 1: than than what we saw last week. You just made

463
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 1: me have to have a hard decision. Feels so good

464
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs and now you're making me rethink it

465
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: might have to do what the wise guys do. Uh listen,

466
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 1: good news, we have the other uh round of the

467
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 1: Pantheon Cup, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars.

468
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 1: They can take a nice little bus ride across to

469
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: the northern Florida Panhandle and then nobody can watch this game.

470
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: Yeah um, yeah, there's not much action on this game

471
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 1: at all. The public that is putting a team in

472
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 1: a parlay is basically betting the Buccaneers. We're seeing some

473
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 1: teaser money, you know. The their Buccaneers are getting plus

474
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 1: one and a half, so teasing them up to eight

475
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 1: and a half in a game that's supposed to be

476
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: somewhat competitive. That's the only angle here, but not much.

477
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 1: The sharp guys haven't weighed in, and there's hardly any

478
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 1: action on this game at all. Blah blah blah. Meanwhile,

479
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: this next game, I'm fascinated by the New York Jets

480
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 1: visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. Andy Dalton back, you've got the

481
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 1: Jets is a three and a half point favorite. What

482
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:56,400
Speaker 1: are you doing, man? What are you doing much? You're

483
00:27:56,440 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 1: gonna get You're gonna get clocked in this. Give me

484
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,880
Speaker 1: the red rifle. Give me the red rifle in this game.

485
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: They're playing hard there. Listen, they got one chance to

486
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 1: win this year one. You're they're looking at it. They're

487
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 1: bringing their better quarterback back. They've got a defense that

488
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 1: has been really stingy uh, this is their shot. They

489
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 1: are not gonna miss their shot. Hamilton's right, I got

490
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: that reference sample it all right. So yeah, you know

491
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,119
Speaker 1: we're kind of we're kind of off this year on

492
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 1: a lot of these on a lot of these teams.

493
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 1: And I'll be the first to admit, you know, we've

494
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 1: had some pretty bad lines can't get it, can't get

495
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 1: a good read on the Jets. Obviously, from the last

496
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: two weeks, I think they won by identical scores against

497
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: both both the Raiders and the Redskins. So that's the

498
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 1: reason they're a little inflated. Uh, nobody's betting the Bengals

499
00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 1: and that or have been during their eleven lost match,

500
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 1: So that's another reason the ticket count is about five

501
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: to one Jets to Bengals. However, we've got more money

502
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 1: on this game, uh, for more than any other Sunday game.

503
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm gonna throw the three Things Giving Day

504
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 1: games out because we have a lot of money on

505
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 1: all three of them. But we've got more action on

506
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: these Jets Bengals than any other game on Sunday, including

507
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 1: the Ravens, the Ravens forty Niners. So even bad teams

508
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 1: can kind of draw action when there's a little bit

509
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 1: of intrigue. Uh. You know the the Jets, you know

510
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 1: that they're they're drawing a lot of attention because they're

511
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 1: not a good team, but they when they win, they

512
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 1: win big, and they come up with some big wins

513
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 1: like they did against the Cowboys, against teams that are

514
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 1: much better than them, So a lot of intrigue with that.

515
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: And then, like you said, the Bengals, oh and eleven,

516
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 1: if they have a shot to win a game, this

517
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: is this is it. So a lot of interest in

518
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 1: this game, and on both sides. I mean that the

519
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: action is good on both side. We're not lopsided in

520
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 1: terms of money, We're only lopside in terms of ticket

521
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 1: account on the on the Jets, I'm betting on the

522
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 1: Bengals in that game. That's it, That's all there is

523
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 1: to it. I know I said I would never do

524
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 1: it again, but by gosh, Scoots, you handed me a

525
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: juicy opportunity. The l A Rams are visiting the Arizona Cardinals.

526
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 1: They are only a field goal favorite right now. What

527
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: a fall for the Los Angeles Rams. And last night

528
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football that did not help their cause. No,

529
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 1: I mean to be fair. They went up against probably

530
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 1: the best team in the NFL right now, but they

531
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 1: had they made them look so much better than what

532
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 1: they are. Their defense is nowhere near what it was

533
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 1: last year, the offense is still struggling. Golf looks terrible. Uh.

534
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 1: There's not many kind of silver linings in this Rams

535
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 1: team right now. And instead of kind of picking it up.

536
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 1: At one point mid season, I finally thought they had

537
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 1: their legs under them and they put a couple of

538
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 1: good wins together. Uh, but they fell right back to

539
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 1: where they were at the beginning of the season. So yeah,

540
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 1: they're only a three point favorite. Uh. Good good action

541
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: both ways on this one. I think I think it's

542
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: the right line. Um. I think the Sharp guys will

543
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 1: probably favor the Cardinals in this one only because they're

544
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 1: they're getting points at home and uh and kind of

545
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 1: after that Rams lost, I don't expect them to necessarily

546
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 1: bounce back to anything, uh to to get up for

547
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: a Cardinals team, So I don't think we'll see much

548
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 1: movement in this line. I like this next game, the

549
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 1: Chargers in the Broncos. All of a sudden, they just

550
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 1: feel like two teams. No one cares about it anymore,

551
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: and I think that's changed a little bit. Yeah. So, um,

552
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 1: this is an interesting one from a bookmaking perspective because

553
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 1: both the public and the Sharp guys are both on

554
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: the same side, which usually is not good for the bookmakers.

555
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 1: And I've probably been a little high on the Broncos

556
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: all year. They've gotten some I've talked about it every week,

557
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 1: how they've gotten a lot of good wins and covers.

558
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 1: For us, we need the Broncos every week. This is

559
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: going to be no different. We opened the Chargers at

560
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 1: one point favorite on the road in this one, and

561
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: it got driven up to three in a hurry. So

562
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: we took some pretty big bets on the Chargers at

563
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: minus one, minus one and a half. We went straight

564
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 1: from one and a half to two and a half. Uh,

565
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 1: and then took some more money at two and a

566
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: half and went to three even money all one way.

567
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 1: We've got no sharp money on the Broncos whatsoever. And

568
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: then the public as well, we're seeing about a ten

569
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 1: to one ratio of Charger bets to Broncos. Betch. And

570
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: it's interesting because here's two teams that love to take

571
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 1: a lead into the fourth quarter and then blow it.

572
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: So it's which one's gonna win out here? You got

573
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: you got two teams that lose close one. I think

574
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,719
Speaker 1: every one of the Chargers losses has been by one score,

575
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 1: and the same with the Broncos. So somebody, somebody's got

576
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 1: a mess up here in the fourth quarter. Why do

577
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 1: you think the wise guys like to Charger so much.

578
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I mean, if I if I knew

579
00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 1: their angle, I probably would have opened three to begin with.

580
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure what they're saying in this one

581
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 1: other than you know, like I said, we'd have been

582
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 1: maybe a little too high on the Broncos. So just

583
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 1: in in our raw power ranking, maybe we just haven't

584
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 1: given um, we're too high on the Broncos and haven't

585
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: given enough credit to the Chargers. The next game, Brown Steelers,

586
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 1: so many layers right rematch, obviously huge amount of tension

587
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: between these two teams, a lot of animosity, UM, the

588
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: Miles Garrett situation, the Mason Rudolph situation, uh Intro Division arrivals,

589
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 1: both with a chance to vy for a playoff spot.

590
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 1: Cleveland coming on strong. They're now one game back of

591
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 1: five hundred, Pittsburgh barely over five hundred. Duck Hodges the

592
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 1: new quarterback against Baker Mayfield, who's starting to figure some

593
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 1: things out. They also know they got to ride Nick Chubb.

594
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 1: You've got him as a very short road favorite. Normally

595
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 1: you know, I'm gonna be all over a home dog,

596
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 1: but I don't think Pittsburgh's healthy enough to compete here.

597
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 1: No that's the thing. They're banged up. And then you

598
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 1: know what happened just a couple of weeks ago. I

599
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 1: mean that that first game was still fresh in everybody's mind.

600
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 1: That was just a couple of weeks ago, when the

601
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 1: Browns were at home, and they were about a three

602
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite in that one, so

603
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 1: roughly about a four and a half point adjustment for

604
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 1: flipping fields. Um, we're going to see more action on

605
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 1: the Browns than we are on the Steelers, even though

606
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 1: Steelers are at home. The Browns, like you mentioned, are

607
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 1: playing where most people thought they would play at the

608
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 1: beginning of the season. So and they got got some

609
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 1: impressive wins and in some of those games. So we're

610
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna see more money on the Browns in

611
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 1: this one. Uh, not by much. And sharp guys really

612
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 1: haven't weighed in on this yet, so I'm not sure

613
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: which which way they'd be leaning in this one. It's

614
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 1: a tough one. I'm going to wait for the number

615
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 1: to move a little bit. I think I think it's

616
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,080
Speaker 1: going to go in Cleveland's direction, and then I that

617
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 1: have to make a decision on Cleveland or make a

618
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: decision on Pittsburgh. Clearly, that's what decisions are for New

619
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 1: England visiting Houston. Potential playoff match up here, New England

620
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:13,839
Speaker 1: a three point road favorite. God, I want to love

621
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 1: Houston in the spot, but they've let me down so

622
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 1: many times this year. When we were making this line,

623
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 1: we said, Okay, this is gonna be after a long

624
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 1: four day weekend full of college and pro football. This

625
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 1: is going to be the Sunday night game. All the

626
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:31,800
Speaker 1: parlays are going to be going to which team the

627
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:35,439
Speaker 1: New England Patriots like they are every weekend. So we said,

628
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 1: whatever we would normally make it, we have to make

629
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 1: it a little bit higher. So normally we'd probably make

630
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:42,719
Speaker 1: this about two and a half minus money. We went

631
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 1: on the high side and we opened three and a half,

632
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,399
Speaker 1: and right out of the gate, the sharp guys took

633
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 1: three and a half. And I will say, I don't

634
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,800
Speaker 1: think it's necessarily that they love the Texans. I just

635
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 1: think that they feel like it might be the only

636
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 1: three and a half they see. Um, so, so they

637
00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,760
Speaker 1: took it early. Uh. And now we're at Hatriots minus

638
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 1: three minus dollar twenty and most of the public is

639
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 1: on the Patriots as expected, and We've kind of slowed

640
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 1: down a lot of the sharp money on the on

641
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: the Texans. So this is a tough one. At three

642
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 1: and a half. You have to take the Texans at three.

643
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: You have to think twice about the next game. Minnesota

644
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 1: playing Seattle in Seattle Monday night football. That's a ESPN

645
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 1: has got itself a game right there. I would take

646
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 1: Minnesota in this game. Minnesota is as like three point underdog.

647
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 1: Seattle plays him close. Generally, they do not tend to

648
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: look good over the course of an entire game. I

649
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,800
Speaker 1: am a big Minnesota fan. In this game, give me

650
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 1: the Minnesota VI Gangs. You who that is? Yeah, we've seen.

651
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: Do you know who that is? Is that another Lizzo?

652
00:36:55,120 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 1: Do you know Lizzo? Gosh darn dag nabt Scooch. What

653
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 1: kind of references are you throw at Lizzo? Man, She's

654
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 1: like one of the hottest musicians, artists, singers happening today.

655
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: She's happening, man. The other day I did a Peloton

656
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,800
Speaker 1: class that was all Lizzo, was all Lizzo music. I

657
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 1: know you're on the peloton, We've talked about it. Go

658
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 1: get yourself a little Lizzo class. What kind of music

659
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: is lizz does like Uh, it's it's a little poppy,

660
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 1: a little hip hoppy. It's good. It's good. She can't

661
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 1: be she can't be labeled. That's the thing about Lizzo.

662
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 1: She can do anything. Okay. I like I like alt rock. Now,

663
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 1: that's why I'm meant to like. I like news. Jesus Christ,

664
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:43,320
Speaker 1: why don't I send you? Why don't I send you?

665
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 1: Uh Smith's Replacements Tears for Fears mixtape. I didn't say eighties.

666
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 1: Give me your take on this game, and then let's

667
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:02,279
Speaker 1: play some scooch roulette. I leaned towards the Vikings in

668
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 1: this one only because I think Seattle was another one

669
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 1: of those teams that you mentioned, like with the Raiders

670
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 1: and your Pathectorian theorem, how they're just kind of winning

671
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 1: games that they statistically shouldn't shouldn't be winning, but they

672
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:17,799
Speaker 1: are getting the wins. I think in this case, they're

673
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 1: going up against just such a good team that if

674
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:22,919
Speaker 1: you're going to give points to a team, I'll take

675
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 1: the point in this one. I'm with you. I'm with you.

676
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 1: Guess what it's time for? Oh? What time for scooch roulette.

677
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 1: Let's play some games as much as I love the Jets.

678
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 1: Last week, uh, pat our producer reminded me that I

679
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,800
Speaker 1: did not take the Jets. I took the Buffalo Bills.

680
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 1: You took the Atlanta Falcons. I still won. Yeah, I'm

681
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: not doing very well. Someone like sent me a tweet.

682
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 1: They tweeted me, and they tweeted at your dad, not

683
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 1: knowing that you're not on Twitter, just ripping you to

684
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 1: shreds for missing in Scootrolett every week, and they feel

685
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 1: like you're doing it on purpose. So people will go

686
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 1: in the direction you need them to go. Can you

687
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 1: explain to people that we're not that influential? Well, and

688
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 1: that's always the knock against somebody that's making a line

689
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 1: and moving a line and then to go ahead and

690
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 1: to say why you like a game? So I try

691
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 1: to pick the games that we made deliberately, like like

692
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 1: last week, we made the Falcons a four and a

693
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: half point favorite and it got driven down to three.

694
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 1: So at least kind of putting my money where my

695
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,359
Speaker 1: mouth is. If I like the Falcons, then why didn't

696
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 1: I make them higher? I could say, well I did.

697
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 1: I did make them higher, because that's always the knock

698
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: if you tell somebody you know, uh, you like a team,

699
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 1: and they say, well, you're the bookmaker. If you like

700
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:50,800
Speaker 1: them so much, why didn't you make them higher? And

701
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,400
Speaker 1: so you really really can't win, you know what I mean?

702
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 1: I agree, I totally agree. You know what else? You

703
00:39:57,160 --> 00:40:00,399
Speaker 1: can't win at scot Roulette. I'm killing fut and I'm

704
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 1: taking I'm taking the La la la Minnesota Vikings. Okay,

705
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 1: good pick. I'm gonna go with the forty Niners for

706
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: that reason that I just said. I mean, I know

707
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 1: the Ravens are playing the best football of any team

708
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:18,839
Speaker 1: in the NFL right now, but the line is deliberately high,

709
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 1: so uh, you know it's too high. I'm I'm gonna

710
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna go to five and a half as

711
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 1: soon as we get get off this show. All right, Scooch,

712
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,719
Speaker 1: you got the Baltimore Ravens, I got the Minnesota Vikings,

713
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna go with the forty Niners. Seriously, curiously, Oh,

714
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:37,880
Speaker 1: you're going with the with the Niners, right, You're going

715
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 1: with the Niners. You got the Niners and I got

716
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:45,320
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings, and you and I will be on

717
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 1: the air radio dot com radio dot com app at

718
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 1: Action Network h Q on Sunday twelve to one, breaking

719
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 1: down all the games. It's the fastest sixty minutes in

720
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 1: sports media and also the most informative, most exciting, and

721
00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: most money making tell on that time, Scooch, I want

722
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 1: you and your beautiful bridegen to have a great Thanksgiving.

723
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 1: I wish you nothing but winners and good attitudes. So

724
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,839
Speaker 1: when you get home, uh you, guys, don't get into

725
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 1: an argument. Shame to you. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. All right, brother,

726
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 1: talk to you all right, take care. It's time for

727
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:24,240
Speaker 1: the next half of the podcast with professional better Simon

728
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:31,680
Speaker 1: Hunter and professional fader Darren Ravel. Darren is just back

729
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 1: from a scouting trip for the site of the next

730
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:40,280
Speaker 1: trick he will pull in case he loses fade Ravel

731
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 1: this week, you want to quickly tell people where you are.

732
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,880
Speaker 1: You just sent out a picture on Twitter. We are

733
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 1: at a bar that has a mechanical ball, so we'll

734
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 1: be revealing exactly what I'll be doing, but there'll be

735
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 1: parameters that will make it significantly more difficult than just

736
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 1: getting on one. You are a trooper, do you know

737
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 1: what's upsetting Simon? And now a word from a wise

738
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 1: guy with Simon Hunter. Are you there, Simon? Are you there? Simon?

739
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 1: Are you there? You know what's upsetting? We went two

740
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 1: and three last weekend. Yeah, that was that was a

741
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: good old kicking the balls. Should have been a four

742
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 1: in one week, but bad coaching and bad luck ended

743
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 1: up brutal. The side is the side right, as they say,

744
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 1: the right side is the winning side, and that's that's true.

745
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:41,399
Speaker 1: We just we just got a little bit, a little

746
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 1: bit of bad corner there. But hopefully this week we

747
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 1: turn turn it around. We straight up lost, Darren, Well,

748
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 1: hold on your confidence for the Eagles betting that game.

749
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 1: I think there were other games to bet and you

750
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 1: just wanted to be sharper than sharp and uh, and

751
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 1: we got caught and so you know, now I would

752
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 1: say that Dolphins didn't cover. So but all back on

753
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:08,399
Speaker 1: them again this week. Well listen, uh the Eagles when

754
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 1: we like them, Um did not have all the injuries

755
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 1: that the things that have passed through. Yeah, that that was.

756
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:19,240
Speaker 1: That was insane. I mean there they started to practice

757
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:22,320
Speaker 1: squad guys and then we had um broke. She was

758
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 1: it was a good dude. He just had anxiety before

759
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 1: the game. So he played a couple of snaps and

760
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 1: then he had anxiety. He kept feeling sick, so they

761
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 1: took him out. So there their whole right side with

762
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 1: him and Lane Johnson to the highest graded offensive liignment

763
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 1: in the game, both out. So that that right there,

764
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 1: that was just we just got really hit, really unlucky

765
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 1: on that Sunday with the injury bug with the Eagles.

766
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:47,320
Speaker 1: But that's how it goes sometimes, Darren, you got some

767
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 1: games that you feel really good about that I can

768
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 1: knock down. Don't start with the knocking down premise, but

769
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 1: I have some games. I have Miami plus nine and

770
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 1: a half against the Eagles I had. Do you want

771
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: to go through the whole thing? Let's just do it.

772
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 1: I'm in whoa one for one? I don't think we've

773
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 1: ever been one for one? Simon, you interview out, Simon,

774
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:17,839
Speaker 1: you got an opinion on that. Uh, let's let's find

775
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 1: keep going through. I do. I do like the Miami

776
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:25,240
Speaker 1: side though, Okay, alright, let's go. I like Arizona plus

777
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 1: three against the Rams. I know you're gonna come back

778
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 1: and say, yeah, recency bias, recency bias for the Rams. Yeah, there,

779
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 1: I think, what are they now? Three and two in

780
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:36,839
Speaker 1: the last five weeks. But I like Arizona. I can

781
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 1: I think they can hang in there with the big boys.

782
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:42,399
Speaker 1: I think their record is not indicative of how good

783
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:46,240
Speaker 1: they actually might be. I like plus three Zona against

784
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 1: the Rams. Boom, count me in, baby, it's a Thanksgiving miracle.

785
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 1: Oh my god, we're gonna go oh and five this week. Okay, well,

786
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 1: I'm I'm on. I think gold on. Hold on, Simon's

787
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 1: on other side, So we're not going to choose that game. Okay, yeah,

788
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:04,840
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't want to go against the Rams

789
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:07,440
Speaker 1: after they just got blown out embarrassed at home. Now

790
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 1: they're going on the road in a game they really need,

791
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:11,840
Speaker 1: I guess a team coming off of by This is

792
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 1: this kind of game where I could I could see

793
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 1: why you like the Cardinals side because what you just

794
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 1: said about the Rams, but this is this is a

795
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,880
Speaker 1: great spot for the Rams. What's your model say, Simon?

796
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 1: So well, the fine thing was the look aheadline was

797
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: minus three and a half, so I thought this was

798
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 1: gonna be a trap game for the Rams. But my

799
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,279
Speaker 1: model has this that minus six for the Rams, and

800
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 1: then they reopened this game and minus three, So it's

801
00:45:37,239 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 1: it's public public money is gonna be coming in the Cardinals.

802
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 1: But it's just like Carolina Panthers last week, when a

803
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:45,760
Speaker 1: team gets blown out at home and then they're comfortable,

804
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 1: teams are going on the road to divisional game. I

805
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 1: like the back. I like the back of the team

806
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:53,760
Speaker 1: that just got blown blown out going to a divisional game. Okay,

807
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 1: all right, keep going there. How could I not take

808
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 1: the Alice Cowboys on Thanksgiving? Why not take Thanksgiving games?

809
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 1: You want to take Thanksgiving games? I do. I like

810
00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 1: the juice. I don't like Thanksgiving food. I'm gonna be

811
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,839
Speaker 1: on the couch longer than everyone else. I'll bet it too.

812
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 1: But I also want to Thanksgiving game in a super contest. Wait,

813
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: Darren against I like it. People are saying, you know,

814
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 1: people are maybe down on the Cowboys, a little bit

815
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 1: as down as they could be, And I like Cowboys

816
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 1: bills aren't as good as we think they are. On that.

817
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:43,719
Speaker 1: I mean, I gotta modeled at seven. So I've seen

818
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: a lot of six and a halfs off there for

819
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. UM, and it's actually been surprisingly really profitable

820
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 1: to take these home favorites on Thanksgiving. UM, so I

821
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 1: don't hate it. We can put the Cowboys on the

822
00:46:57,239 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 1: side though, all right, let's put them on the side.

823
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:05,279
Speaker 1: There are uh, there are sweet potatoes. All right. I

824
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 1: would do two more games. I love Green Bay minus

825
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 1: six and a half against the Giants. People are down

826
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 1: on them, move on, move on. Yeah, actually the Giant

827
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:27,239
Speaker 1: all right. Uh. And and finally, I really want to

828
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 1: take the Tampa Bay box plus one on the road

829
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 1: in Jacksonville. Alright, Tampa Bay is a much better team.

830
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:44,359
Speaker 1: All right, let's let me get I think we're locked

831
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:48,320
Speaker 1: on Miami. We we love Miami, Okay, definitely going to

832
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,800
Speaker 1: do that. I'm gonna throw some out there. Uh. And

833
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:57,800
Speaker 1: then Simon's gonna steer us in the right direction. Uh, Miami.

834
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 1: We like San Francisco. This game should be lined it

835
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 1: for I'm getting two points of value here. Just is

836
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:07,560
Speaker 1: just just shouldn't be okay, See that? Why that's the

837
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 1: sharp You trying to take a game that's difficult. There's

838
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:13,719
Speaker 1: no reason to what's difficult about it. I mean it's

839
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:17,640
Speaker 1: a ten and one team versus a nine and two team, like, right,

840
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 1: So there's no reason for a tenant for a nine

841
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 1: or two team to be a six point home favorite.

842
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 1: That's too big of a number against a defense as

843
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 1: good as they are, as good as the Niners are,

844
00:48:28,640 --> 00:48:32,840
Speaker 1: that's a no brainer. Simon backed me up, backing you up,

845
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:34,879
Speaker 1: and I got a round, Darreniel. We've we've gone two

846
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 1: straight weeks now where we've avoided going against Lamar and

847
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 1: it's worked out for us. He just like we said

848
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 1: last week, he's breaking all the rules of that. That

849
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 1: Monday night was not that and there's no locks or

850
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:49,359
Speaker 1: whatever people call it, but that's one of those games.

851
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:51,399
Speaker 1: Are the rams that this should not have gone blown

852
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:54,759
Speaker 1: out like that. That's not that's not common practice when

853
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 1: you gamble on football, and I'm terrifying the Ravens. I

854
00:48:57,600 --> 00:48:59,879
Speaker 1: can't bet against the Ravens. You either got to take

855
00:48:59,880 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Just stay away, and no matter how good

856
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 1: their defense is, Chad Lamar is unlike anyone else, So

857
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 1: I don't want coaching. The coaching has been incredible, like

858
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 1: them them going for it on fourth and four when

859
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:17,880
Speaker 1: they're up to fourteen. That just shows how great of

860
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:19,840
Speaker 1: a coach Harriball is that he's going to adapt a

861
00:49:19,880 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 1: new age analytics and they're they're doing there. Their coachings

862
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 1: are so incredible with what they're doing in Baltimore. That's

863
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 1: why this engine turner. And hey, maybe I'll fade out

864
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, but right now we can't get in

865
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 1: front of this Ravens train. You know what train, We

866
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:39,319
Speaker 1: can get in front of the Baker train. Boys, give

867
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 1: me the Cleveland Browns as short road favorites against the

868
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 1: decimated Duck Hodges lad Pittsburgh Steelers, who are lucky to

869
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 1: get out of Cincinnati with a win. Uh yeah, give

870
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 1: it you. I would yeah, I'd take it as long

871
00:49:57,760 --> 00:49:59,919
Speaker 1: as days under three when the contest opens the lines,

872
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 1: I'll take it. Great. So guess what, guys, Now we've

873
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 1: got Cleveland in Miami. That's who we're riding with in

874
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 1: our final weeks when we gotta win, We're going with

875
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:12,880
Speaker 1: Cleveland and Miami. Here's one Minnesota three point dog on

876
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: the road against Seattle. They are playing a team that

877
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 1: is just not as good as they are. I like it.

878
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:25,759
Speaker 1: I like Minnesota here. I'll take that game over San

879
00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:29,960
Speaker 1: Francisco Baltimore. Alright, So right now we're Cleveland, we're Cleveland

880
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 1: where Miami and we're Minnesota, right and they gotta put

881
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 1: one sharp lining? Can we can we take the Giants?

882
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 1: I we're doing the Giants. I know, I know what

883
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:45,360
Speaker 1: you're thinking there, but this is like, this is just

884
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 1: like the Redskins last week. I love the Redskins last week.

885
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:50,800
Speaker 1: It's one of these things where people are still thinking

886
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 1: the Packers are a really good team because the way

887
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:55,760
Speaker 1: they played this year, but they're just a completely different

888
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 1: team on the road. So this is back to back

889
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:02,400
Speaker 1: road games, and I just think that's a big number

890
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:04,760
Speaker 1: six and a half seven. So I'd like the Giants

891
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:07,400
Speaker 1: a lot, Darren, Why would you not give Simon what

892
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:09,200
Speaker 1: he asked for? He asked for so little when he

893
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:12,760
Speaker 1: gives us so much. This is the season of thanks Giving,

894
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 1: not thanks knowing. Okay, well, I'm gonna rip you guys

895
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:20,239
Speaker 1: to shreds if we lose this one because I don't

896
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 1: like it. But that's fine as long as we take

897
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:31,120
Speaker 1: New England over Euston. I mean, we're at the point

898
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 1: where I think we've only taken New England three times

899
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 1: this year and we're one and two with New England. Um,

900
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 1: I don't ate the spot. I mean nine three, it's

901
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:45,399
Speaker 1: a it's so small. Brady's coming off two games where

902
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 1: he's passed like a hundred ninety and two hundred fifteen yards.

903
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 1: I I just think, you know, they aren't as good.

904
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:56,279
Speaker 1: They are not as good. Uh they're not. They don't

905
00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 1: seem to be ten in one good. But they just

906
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:02,560
Speaker 1: know how to win. And it's only three right now,

907
00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 1: so I would it was what four and a half?

908
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 1: So I like if that number is at three, I

909
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 1: like that play. You don't think that's the trap, Darren,

910
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 1: I'm a square guy. I don't really. I don't really

911
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:18,880
Speaker 1: say well because this is then, this is then, this

912
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:22,440
Speaker 1: is that favorite has done really well this year overall

913
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 1: the squares or I just I had this game and

914
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 1: to pick them, so like in my system, you're getting

915
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 1: good value with Texas. But like you said, like we

916
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:31,560
Speaker 1: always talked about their the Patriots break all the rules,

917
00:52:31,640 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 1: so we could just stay away. I don't want to

918
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:35,319
Speaker 1: take the Patriots. I don't want to take the Patriots either.

919
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:37,719
Speaker 1: What about the Chargers? What is your numbers saying about

920
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:42,319
Speaker 1: the Chargers? See, like I'm I'm trying to get all

921
00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 1: the data in this quicks like like it like all

922
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 1: in the movies. It's just people, you know, they take

923
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:48,879
Speaker 1: stuff and they's plug into a system, the system something

924
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 1: to do my system doesn't work that way. It takes

925
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:52,640
Speaker 1: a lot of work. So I don't have all the

926
00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 1: numbers in with Because Darwin James is coming back this

927
00:52:55,400 --> 00:52:58,759
Speaker 1: week with safety for the Chargers, so that's a huge

928
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 1: boost if he is coming back. Um, I would like

929
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:05,839
Speaker 1: the Charges in that spot. All right, guys, we need

930
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:09,880
Speaker 1: one more game. I would say take I would say Chargers,

931
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:16,439
Speaker 1: you would say Tampa Bay. We also have Dallas. Oh, Dallas, Yeah,

932
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:19,399
Speaker 1: I mean Thallas isn't battle. We can tex tomorrow about

933
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:21,280
Speaker 1: the line because if if if it, if it stays

934
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 1: at seven, let's let's not do Dallas because that that

935
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:25,839
Speaker 1: that might end up being a push. We can't take

936
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:29,879
Speaker 1: any more pushes here, So Dallas less than seven. If

937
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:33,080
Speaker 1: not Dallas, then let's flip a coin between Tampa and

938
00:53:33,680 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 1: Sandy and the Chargers. Uh, Simon, you are supposed to

939
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:42,240
Speaker 1: be the judge here, So which side do you favor

940
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 1: between those two games? Or or is there a game

941
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 1: we're not talking about that you feel really strongly about. Um, Well,

942
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:54,600
Speaker 1: like the the game we're not really talking about. That's

943
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:59,399
Speaker 1: gonna be a really smart sharp line this week. It's

944
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:03,640
Speaker 1: gonna be the Falcons. But I honestly I think one

945
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:05,480
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving games is gonna be enough for us, So we

946
00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 1: can just we can take that one off. We can

947
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:11,400
Speaker 1: go with the Chargers of the least. But in okay, Darren,

948
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:16,719
Speaker 1: how do you feel about that? It's okay. I'll take

949
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: it and and it in it. These picks, you know,

950
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:22,360
Speaker 1: don't do well this week. I'm not trying to be pessimistic.

951
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take control next week. Okay, that's totally fair.

952
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:32,240
Speaker 1: Totally not likely, but totally fair. Thank you. We have Cleveland, Miami,

953
00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:37,000
Speaker 1: Minnesota Giants for sure, Dallas if it's less than seven Chargers,

954
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:40,000
Speaker 1: if it's more than if it's seven or more, boys,

955
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 1: we need some winners. We gotta finish the season strong.

956
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 1: You know what I'm thankful for. I'm thankful for Simon

957
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:48,600
Speaker 1: Hunter reaching out to me on Twitter. I'm thankful for

958
00:54:48,680 --> 00:54:51,400
Speaker 1: the fact that I am such a mench I respond

959
00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 1: to everybody and spoke to him, and that he joined

960
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:58,320
Speaker 1: the podcast and has given us insights enjoy throughout the

961
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:03,480
Speaker 1: NFL season. Darren, I'm also thankful for you. Thanks for nothing, kid,

962
00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 1: have a great holiday. Talk to you, Simon. All Right,

963
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 1: this has been the favorites from the Action Network. I'm

964
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:19,319
Speaker 1: wishing all of you a very happy, healthy, wealthy, profitable Thanksgiving.

965
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:23,839
Speaker 1: Download the podcast from Apple, podcast from Radio dot com,

966
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:27,600
Speaker 1: search for the favorites, or wherever you get your podcasts

967
00:55:27,640 --> 00:55:29,239
Speaker 1: to make sure you listen to Scooch and I on

968
00:55:29,400 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 1: Radio dot com, the Radio dot Com app, and at

969
00:55:31,719 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 1: Action Network h Q Sunday's twelve to one for the

970
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:37,560
Speaker 1: most exciting sixty minutes in sports as we break down

971
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 1: every line and all the money that's coming in in

972
00:55:40,520 --> 00:55:44,360
Speaker 1: real time. Until next time, I Love you,