WEBVTT - Surviving Pay Phones Evoke U.S. Past

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovik. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Searched Bloomberg clovel News Well the fast spreading delta variant.

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<v Speaker 1>It's flooded hospitals across the South. It's killed more people

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<v Speaker 1>in Florida and Louisiana than the darkest days of the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic winter and left so many COVID nineteen patients gasping

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<v Speaker 1>for breath. That's some places face shortages of medical oxygen.

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<v Speaker 1>So right. Jonathan Levin and Michael Smith and their latest

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<v Speaker 1>story for the Bloomberg terminally available at Bloomberg dot com

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<v Speaker 1>as well. Overwhelmed hospitals belae us illusion of a defanged pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>Drew Armstrong is senior editor for US Healthcare for Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>News and joins us Now on the phone from New

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<v Speaker 1>York City. Drew, how did we get here? Well? I

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<v Speaker 1>think we've been in this situation where you have many

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<v Speaker 1>parts of the US vaccinating quite aggressively, but many parts

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<v Speaker 1>that didn't. And you know, when you look at down South, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of rural areas, those were places that had

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<v Speaker 1>not been hit nearly as hard early on by COVID.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you have this kind of perfect storm combining

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<v Speaker 1>a much much much much more transmissible UM and by

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<v Speaker 1>some reports more dangerous variants of the virus UH, low

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<v Speaker 1>rates of vaccination UH in those places UM, and a

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<v Speaker 1>population that probably didn't have necessarily as much kind of

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<v Speaker 1>previous naturally acquired immunity. Because these are a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>places that so man, these places have been hit by

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<v Speaker 1>quite hard, but there were still a lot of places

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<v Speaker 1>in the country that had not really been slammed uh

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<v Speaker 1>by by COVID. You know, you mix all of that

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<v Speaker 1>together and it's a pretty toxic brew. True. The data

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<v Speaker 1>in the story seems to suggest that even with an

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<v Speaker 1>orderly vaccine rollout, I've reflects. You know, what happened here

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<v Speaker 1>in San Francisco. We started with those over the age

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<v Speaker 1>of seventy, then down to sixty five. But what seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be happening, particularly in the Southern States, is that

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<v Speaker 1>there are sections of those age groups that just didn't

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<v Speaker 1>for some for whatever reason, get vaccinated. And that's where

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<v Speaker 1>the pressure points seems to be in terms of hospitalizations.

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<v Speaker 1>What's going on there. Yeah, you know, you have higher

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<v Speaker 1>levels of vaccine either refusal or reluctant to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>across the board in a lot of these places. And

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<v Speaker 1>the result of that is, you know, you're over seventy

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<v Speaker 1>five populations like vaccinated, or over sixty five populations like vaccinated,

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<v Speaker 1>or over a team population is less vaccinated. So you

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<v Speaker 1>just leave more vulnerable people UM in play there. And obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>especially with some of those older groups or people who

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<v Speaker 1>have pre existing medical conditions you talk about you know, BCD, diabetes, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>those people are really at risk of this virus. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>if you if you look at how to virus, who

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<v Speaker 1>this virus impact UM. You know, if you're older and

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<v Speaker 1>in ill health or you know just in ill health, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>you're really profoundly at risk most younger, healthier people that

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<v Speaker 1>are exceptions to this obviously, but are far less risk

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<v Speaker 1>of this. It can be, you know, quite nasty and unpleasant,

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<v Speaker 1>but you know, you don't see that as many of

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<v Speaker 1>the charitable health outcomes as you do, um in a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of these older populations, and that just means kind of,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, more more kindling for this thing to burn through. So, Drew,

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<v Speaker 1>how does this? How does this end? Because here we

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<v Speaker 1>are in September. Kids are supposed to be back in

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<v Speaker 1>school many parts of the United States, they're already not

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<v Speaker 1>as a result of being quarantined or the spread of

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<v Speaker 1>the virus among those classrooms. How does this? How does

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<v Speaker 1>this end? Well? You know, I think the way it

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<v Speaker 1>ends is some degree of immunity, either through vaccination or

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<v Speaker 1>through previous infections, and and this pandemic probably burns itself

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<v Speaker 1>mostly out and we move into kind of an endemic

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<v Speaker 1>phase where, um know, we have pockets of infection and

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<v Speaker 1>player ups and kind of a constant low grade COVID

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<v Speaker 1>out there. Um. The one thing I'll say is that

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<v Speaker 1>seemed to be a point of discussion out there amongst

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<v Speaker 1>some groups. You know, the vaccines are kind of a

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<v Speaker 1>shortcut to immunity. Yes, you can get naturally acquired immunity,

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<v Speaker 1>but you have to get sick to get it, and

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<v Speaker 1>that comes with some significant risks. I think as we've seen,

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<v Speaker 1>as we had to you know, more than uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>over half a million people dead of this disease in

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<v Speaker 1>in the U s so um. You know, people talk

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<v Speaker 1>a lot about like viruses as wildfires, and they tend

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<v Speaker 1>to go until you know, burnt through all of the

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<v Speaker 1>brush flammable brushes out there. Hey, Drew, we only have

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<v Speaker 1>about thirty seconds left on this. I just want to

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<v Speaker 1>get an idea from you about sort of the next

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<v Speaker 1>catalyst we should be looking forward to see if Delta

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<v Speaker 1>has indeed peaked here in the US. You know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think what I'm personally watching is a lot of state

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<v Speaker 1>and regional maps, um, you know, looking to see trying

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<v Speaker 1>not to think about this as a US outbreak, but

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<v Speaker 1>really thinking about it as a state and local UM

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<v Speaker 1>one and keeping a close eye to seat. Okay, has

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<v Speaker 1>it peeked down south fully? Um? Is it riving or

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<v Speaker 1>is there a ceiling on cases in some of the

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<v Speaker 1>states that have vaccinated more heavily, Would it have not

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<v Speaker 1>been kind of forced indoors because of the heat, and

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<v Speaker 1>then really paying attention to whats with the holidays, holidays,

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<v Speaker 1>already thinking about that and trying to make those plans

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<v Speaker 1>those right around the corner. Drew Armstrong, Senior editor for

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<v Speaker 1>US Healthcare for Bloomberg News, joining us live on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from New York City. This is Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. Well, the pay phone an iconic image of

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<v Speaker 1>the pay phone. Just think about what an image of

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<v Speaker 1>a pay phone, or what a payphone evokes to you.

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<v Speaker 1>For so many years, it was the only way for

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<v Speaker 1>any of us to communicate with one another or actually

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<v Speaker 1>even be reached. But nowadays it's rare, with the advent

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<v Speaker 1>of the smart phone and the cell phone, that they're

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<v Speaker 1>even used. Well. David Dudley, a writer for Bloomberg City

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<v Speaker 1>Lab who joins us now on the phone from Baltimore,

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<v Speaker 1>profiled a photographer who's working to documents surviving pay phones

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<v Speaker 1>that are evoking he lost US network of two million. David,

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<v Speaker 1>it's great to have you on the show. Tell us

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<v Speaker 1>about the photographer's project documenting thousands of these abandoned payphones.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for having me, uh so. I spent the day

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<v Speaker 1>with a gentleman named Eric Kunzman, who is a photographer

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<v Speaker 1>and a photography professor in Rochester, New York, and a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of years ago, he became sort of fascinated by

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that it seemed like the neighborhood that he

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<v Speaker 1>had moved to studio to was was full of payphones,

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<v Speaker 1>and he hadn't noticed that in other parts of town.

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<v Speaker 1>This is sort of a lower income part of Rochester.

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<v Speaker 1>And he started um to sort of take images, portraits

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<v Speaker 1>of of the payphones that he saw in the neighborhood,

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<v Speaker 1>usually in front of convenience stores and gas stations. And

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<v Speaker 1>this sort of expanded into this sort of a kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a global quest that he has launched to document

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<v Speaker 1>every single pay phone in Monroe County, New York, uh

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<v Speaker 1>and also any place else basically that he happens to

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<v Speaker 1>see become sort of fabated by what they symbolize. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>a Londoner, right, I think phone box, I think iconic

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<v Speaker 1>red phone box. I think tourism. But it's part of

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<v Speaker 1>this process. What exactly what do you learn about any

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<v Speaker 1>neighborhoods given phone box what does it tell you about

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<v Speaker 1>the economy, about the people in that place. Well, Eric

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<v Speaker 1>sort of theorized that that some of these these phones

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<v Speaker 1>were basically just sort of forgotten. They've been sort of

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<v Speaker 1>installed in the nineties or earlier, and because no one

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<v Speaker 1>had renovated the building that they were attached to, or

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<v Speaker 1>no one had bothered to call the phone company and say, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>could you remove this thing, the machines themselves has sort

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<v Speaker 1>of persisted. So it was sort of like a geograh

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<v Speaker 1>fee of the more sort of economically left behind parts

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<v Speaker 1>of the city. And as part of his project, he

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<v Speaker 1>sort of mapped all the phones across the county and

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<v Speaker 1>overlaid that with with economic data and other information. So

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<v Speaker 1>he became sort of interested sort of what the the

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<v Speaker 1>whole kind of social, kind of geography of telephones meant um,

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<v Speaker 1>which sort of made this more than just sort of

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<v Speaker 1>an esthetic project. It was sort of a social documentary.

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<v Speaker 1>I do find that the the idea that this is

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<v Speaker 1>based in Rochester, New York just fascinating. As you point out,

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<v Speaker 1>it was the home of George and Eastman, the founder

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<v Speaker 1>of Eastman Kodak, and at its nine seventies peak, the

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<v Speaker 1>photography giant employed about fifty thou people and fueled a

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<v Speaker 1>quarter of the city's economic activity. It's absolutely a different

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<v Speaker 1>picture in this day and age, David, And I'm wondering

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<v Speaker 1>the juxtaposition of that and the symbolism there that this

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<v Speaker 1>project is being done on film, first of all, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>in in a place where Eastman Kodak was for so

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<v Speaker 1>long a stalwart of the economy. Yeah. No, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>it's that's sort of part of the conceit here is

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<v Speaker 1>this sort of this convergence of of obsolete technologies, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>that that Eric really still finds value. And he is

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<v Speaker 1>a he is a a film photographer, die Hard. He

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<v Speaker 1>has sort of a shrine to Kodak film in his studio.

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<v Speaker 1>So he's shooting these things on an old half of

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<v Speaker 1>black camera film, using the this this product that is

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<v Speaker 1>so associated with with Rochester and with the wealth that

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<v Speaker 1>sort of built the city, and it's sort of part

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<v Speaker 1>of his his his sort of thesis that there is

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<v Speaker 1>value in things that that that might not be putting

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<v Speaker 1>edge technology anymore, but are still useful and still still

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<v Speaker 1>serve different people encourage you know, yeah, exactly. It's the saying, David,

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<v Speaker 1>I really encouraged Bloomberg radio listeners to go on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com onto the Bloomberg terminal and look at the

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<v Speaker 1>actual photographs themselves. As Tim said, short and film. But

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<v Speaker 1>there's something miss singing from every single photograph. There are

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<v Speaker 1>no people in any of the shots at all. Why

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<v Speaker 1>is that? Yeah, that's sort of on on Eric's park.

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<v Speaker 1>He didn't want you to sort of think about who

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<v Speaker 1>who was using the phone. He wanted you to sort

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<v Speaker 1>of leave that to your imagination because really, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>and those of us who are out in age when

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<v Speaker 1>we uh use payphones more regularly. In the eighties and nineties, um,

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<v Speaker 1>it was a public amenity. Everyone used the payphone, and

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<v Speaker 1>now it's sort of perceived as something as a communication

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<v Speaker 1>device of last resort for people who really have no resources.

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<v Speaker 1>And he really wanted you to think about who who

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<v Speaker 1>might need that phone. And uh so it's this sort

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<v Speaker 1>of gallery of of of unpeopled landscapes where you sort

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<v Speaker 1>of see the phone as part of a kind of

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<v Speaker 1>a streetscape. But yeah, there's no there are no people there.

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<v Speaker 1>They're they're used sometimes. He's got data from from the

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<v Speaker 1>telecom that soprates them, that says that you know, that

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<v Speaker 1>most of these phones are used a couple of times

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<v Speaker 1>a week. Still, Uh, the handful that are still working.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of them are just sort of corpses. They're

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<v Speaker 1>their handsets are broken or the insides have been removed.

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<v Speaker 1>But some of them still work, and and those that

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<v Speaker 1>do still do find people who need to use them.

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<v Speaker 1>What did the company that oversees these phones, that these

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<v Speaker 1>phones belong to, Frontier tell you about the status of

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<v Speaker 1>the phones. You know, it's it's not really a priority

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<v Speaker 1>of fun your communications right now. This is a telecom

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<v Speaker 1>that is, you know, pivoting to fiber optics and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>cutting edge technologies. But it also happens to have about

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen hundred of these phones scattered around the county. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a spokes first when told the last reporter

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<v Speaker 1>who did the story on this that they're they're still

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<v Speaker 1>maintaining the ones that are When they get a call

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<v Speaker 1>to fix up a phone, they'll still send someone out. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>it's unlikely it's a major profit center. Let's just it's

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<v Speaker 1>a it's a it's a very very declining business. There

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<v Speaker 1>are less than a hundred thousand payphones across all of

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<v Speaker 1>the United States. Probably a lot less and uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's very much a a part of the telephone

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<v Speaker 1>tunations business that has has really been left in the past.

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<v Speaker 1>David very quickly here, what was your takeaway? I mean, look,

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<v Speaker 1>you you can't see me. I'm holding my cell phone

0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:29.360
<v Speaker 1>in my hand. I'm rarely ever detached from it. I

0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:31.520
<v Speaker 1>can't live without my cell phone. But is you going

0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:34.679
<v Speaker 1>through that experience driving around neighborhoods. How did it make

0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:38.040
<v Speaker 1>you feel? You know, it's it's like a time capsule.

0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:40.920
<v Speaker 1>It's like as you're driving around and I grew up

0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.840
<v Speaker 1>near Rochester and I know the area pretty well, and

0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:47.680
<v Speaker 1>you have to kind of pretend that it's like nine nineties,

0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:50.600
<v Speaker 1>and you sort of have to think in those terms,

0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:53.280
<v Speaker 1>and you sort of squinting you and then suddenly you

0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:55.640
<v Speaker 1>can see, oh, there's a payphone attached to that cast stage,

0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:59.679
<v Speaker 1>and uh, it's a it's kind of an interesting experience

0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:05.000
<v Speaker 1>to become aware of this of this this this furniture

0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:08.360
<v Speaker 1>that used to be so omnipresent on our streets and

0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:11.720
<v Speaker 1>it's kind of hiding in playing site and in some places.

0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:17.920
<v Speaker 1>But you know, well, we we've completely forgotten. David Dudley

0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:20.200
<v Speaker 1>is a writer for Bloomberg City Lab. Check out this story.

0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:21.920
<v Speaker 1>As Ed mentioned, you've got to go online and look

0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:23.880
<v Speaker 1>at the peak pictures. David story is featured in These

0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:26.079
<v Speaker 1>Cities issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. It's available on

0:13:26.120 --> 0:13:33.840
<v Speaker 1>newstands and at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. You're

0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:37.800
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:43.160
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovik on Bloomberg Radio. Okay, so Masks

0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:44.719
<v Speaker 1>are back on its city Group and a Bank of

0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:47.560
<v Speaker 1>America workers still have to keep their distance and conference

0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:50.560
<v Speaker 1>rooms at JP Morgan Investment bankers and traders can no

0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:53.520
<v Speaker 1>longer blow off steam at the nearby Monkey Bar. That's

0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:57.200
<v Speaker 1>the Tony restaurant in Midtown Manhattan that closed during the pandemic,

0:13:57.280 --> 0:13:59.720
<v Speaker 1>so writes Jenny Seraine, who says that Wall Street is back,

0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:03.400
<v Speaker 1>just not the way that industry executives had hoped. Jenny

0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:06.640
<v Speaker 1>joins us now in the Bloomberg News Interactive Broker Studio

0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.719
<v Speaker 1>in New York. She's finance reporter for Bloomberg News. So

0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:11.599
<v Speaker 1>Jenny this a few months ago. This was supposed to

0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:15.000
<v Speaker 1>be a completely different story. The the the the Tuesday

0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:17.320
<v Speaker 1>after labor day was when things were supposed to be

0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:19.400
<v Speaker 1>back in full swing. Give us an update from what

0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.320
<v Speaker 1>the big banks are doing. Yeah, that's exactly right. So

0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:25.440
<v Speaker 1>today it was really supposed to be, um, Wall Streets

0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:27.680
<v Speaker 1>big back to school day and kind of the start

0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:31.040
<v Speaker 1>of Wall Streets new normal, and we just haven't seen

0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:32.840
<v Speaker 1>that really take shape. You know, you've got a lot

0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 1>of smaller Wall Street firms actually pushing back their dates saying,

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.240
<v Speaker 1>you know what, we're just going to do this in October, November,

0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:42.120
<v Speaker 1>maybe next year. Um. And then the biggest guys, Yeah,

0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:44.640
<v Speaker 1>they are still very adamant. They want their folks back

0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 1>at their desks. Um. They're increasingly having those folks there. Um.

0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 1>And really they're just it's just not the way they

0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:55.080
<v Speaker 1>pictured it. The mass, the social distancing, um, all the rest.

0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:57.800
<v Speaker 1>It's just not what they wanted. You guys kind of

0:14:57.800 --> 0:14:59.960
<v Speaker 1>set it out, Jenny, right, there's no one size fits

0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:03.040
<v Speaker 1>all return to office COVID plan. But I guess the

0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:04.600
<v Speaker 1>trend does seem to be the big guys want you

0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:08.480
<v Speaker 1>back at your desk, the smaller firms more cautious approach

0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:10.320
<v Speaker 1>pushing things. You know, well, as fathers pushed back a

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 1>couple of times but why is that? I mean, is

0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:16.320
<v Speaker 1>it just the spending that was required on protection mechanisms,

0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:20.200
<v Speaker 1>it's just psychology, you know, what's behind that difference. Yeah,

0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:23.040
<v Speaker 1>it's a really good question. I think for each firm

0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.120
<v Speaker 1>it might be different. So I think some firms are

0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:28.040
<v Speaker 1>using this as an opportunity to recruit away from the

0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:30.920
<v Speaker 1>big firms and saying, you know, people want flexibility, We're

0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:33.760
<v Speaker 1>willing to give you that. UM. In some cases it's

0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:36.680
<v Speaker 1>more about UM. You know, some of these bigger banks

0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:40.520
<v Speaker 1>have staff in places like Texas or Florida, Georgia, places

0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:43.120
<v Speaker 1>where vaccination rates are way lower than than here in

0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:45.840
<v Speaker 1>New York, and so that's kind of complicating how quickly

0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.880
<v Speaker 1>you're or how many people they can bring back. UM.

0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:51.040
<v Speaker 1>So I think lots of things can be driving it. UM.

0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:53.880
<v Speaker 1>Definitely spending on making the office is safer. It's a

0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:56.360
<v Speaker 1>big expense. UM. And if you see a lot of

0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:58.960
<v Speaker 1>your employees really are really hesitant to be back, you

0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:02.360
<v Speaker 1>just you might say, know what will wait? You kind

0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:04.760
<v Speaker 1>of mention in your story about out West this way

0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:07.960
<v Speaker 1>there's this play by the tech companies, right, they keep

0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:12.280
<v Speaker 1>pushing back, they give more flexibility, particularly in the engineering department,

0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:14.960
<v Speaker 1>and you mentioned the story that there's some crossover there right,

0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:18.480
<v Speaker 1>There's there's a flow of talent from Wall Street into

0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:21.680
<v Speaker 1>big tech and vice versa sometimes. But the point is

0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.080
<v Speaker 1>you have to give the people what they want. What's

0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:27.440
<v Speaker 1>going on with this just indefinite delay from ever going

0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:30.200
<v Speaker 1>back to the office. Yeah. I think engineers on Wall

0:16:30.240 --> 0:16:33.000
<v Speaker 1>Street are are very special breed. They seem to be

0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:36.160
<v Speaker 1>the only ones that are getting this uh special dispensation

0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:39.120
<v Speaker 1>from c e o s who are really aggressively bringing

0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:41.520
<v Speaker 1>a lot of their workers back. But they're very hesitant

0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:45.040
<v Speaker 1>to do anything that will upset the developers and engineers

0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:47.080
<v Speaker 1>and everyone that that kind of keep the technology of

0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:49.960
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street going. And that's because, you know, competition for

0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:53.119
<v Speaker 1>that talent right now is at levels that these executives

0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:55.800
<v Speaker 1>haven't ever seen, and they are very aware that places

0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:58.200
<v Speaker 1>like Google and Facebook are are rolling out the red

0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:00.480
<v Speaker 1>carpet for these folks and really trying to keep those

0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:02.880
<v Speaker 1>folks happy and keep them in their jobs. I wonder

0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:05.359
<v Speaker 1>about that in the in the other ranks of employees too,

0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:07.480
<v Speaker 1>because it's not just that these banks are competing with

0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:10.120
<v Speaker 1>the other banks for talent, they're also competing with tech

0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:13.200
<v Speaker 1>companies that perhaps have different types of work from home

0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:16.399
<v Speaker 1>policies and more relaxed policies. And I wonder what you're here,

0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:19.160
<v Speaker 1>wondering what you're hearing from your sources, Jenny, about whether

0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:21.480
<v Speaker 1>or not banks are starting to think differently about being

0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:23.960
<v Speaker 1>more lenient with this stuff because from a competitive perspective,

0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:28.200
<v Speaker 1>they may have to. Yeah, I think so. So many

0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:30.879
<v Speaker 1>of these CEOs are It's like a ceo thing, like,

0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:33.679
<v Speaker 1>so many of these CEOs just feel strongly that culture

0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:36.400
<v Speaker 1>is built in the office and that younger employees especially

0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:38.800
<v Speaker 1>need training and and they want to see folks in

0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:41.160
<v Speaker 1>their seats every day. And so I think you've got

0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:43.439
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of what do the people want versus

0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:45.680
<v Speaker 1>what does the person um, the person at the top

0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:49.000
<v Speaker 1>of the house want um. And that's a really hard balance,

0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:50.760
<v Speaker 1>and I think you're seeing it play out at all

0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:54.520
<v Speaker 1>these different firms in slightly different ways. Um, But ultimately,

0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:56.199
<v Speaker 1>I do think in a lot of cases, what the

0:17:56.240 --> 0:18:00.199
<v Speaker 1>CEO wants is ultimately going to win out, irrespective of

0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:03.000
<v Speaker 1>where they're working, Jenny, how are they working? You know,

0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:06.040
<v Speaker 1>is it it's been a purple patch for for these firms,

0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:08.720
<v Speaker 1>or is part of the sort of impetus to go

0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:11.200
<v Speaker 1>back to your face that they need to do better,

0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:14.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, to get some energy going amongst the workforce. Yeah.

0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:17.199
<v Speaker 1>You know what's interesting about the trading floor specifically is

0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:20.520
<v Speaker 1>we keep hearing from traders that on slow trading days,

0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:22.960
<v Speaker 1>it's really helpful to have folks in the office. You've

0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:26.000
<v Speaker 1>got that water cooler chat, you come up with random ideas,

0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:28.480
<v Speaker 1>you go out, you pitch it to clients. UM. That's

0:18:28.480 --> 0:18:32.119
<v Speaker 1>sort of like organic UM conversation is really hard to

0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:34.480
<v Speaker 1>pull off on Zoom and in virtual meetings and things

0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:37.040
<v Speaker 1>like that. So certainly for the traders, I think that

0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:38.639
<v Speaker 1>you see a lot of those folks are kind of

0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:41.240
<v Speaker 1>eager to get back at least part of the time, UM,

0:18:41.280 --> 0:18:43.280
<v Speaker 1>and that they think it will really help the results.

0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:45.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean, for the rest of the bank, they're they're

0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:48.560
<v Speaker 1>at record profits and UM, it's kind of hard to

0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:51.840
<v Speaker 1>say that they're they're doing poorly in this remote work time. UM.

0:18:51.840 --> 0:18:53.879
<v Speaker 1>But certainly for the traders, you do see them starting

0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:55.800
<v Speaker 1>to get a little auntie, especially as we've had a

0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:57.880
<v Speaker 1>few of these like summer dold drums these past couple

0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:00.560
<v Speaker 1>of weeks. Yeah, well, the summer summer season certainly over

0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:03.200
<v Speaker 1>now I mean officially over. We are the first Tuesday

0:19:03.280 --> 0:19:05.680
<v Speaker 1>after Labor Day, so this is the time when fall

0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:10.160
<v Speaker 1>officially kicks off. Jenny, I'm I'm wondering really about how

0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:13.159
<v Speaker 1>the timeline has changed now that this goal and I

0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:14.919
<v Speaker 1>know the goalpost move. I understand that this is an

0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:17.680
<v Speaker 1>involving situation, but what are the banks saying about, Okay,

0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:19.520
<v Speaker 1>we are back to normal. You know on this date,

0:19:20.440 --> 0:19:23.439
<v Speaker 1>there's not really one new universal date like there was

0:19:23.440 --> 0:19:25.720
<v Speaker 1>with this UM. So it's I think we're going to

0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:28.439
<v Speaker 1>see it really be low and slow. Um. The biggest

0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:31.200
<v Speaker 1>US banks have brought a lot of their folks back

0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:33.679
<v Speaker 1>or are planning to do so this month. UM. So

0:19:33.720 --> 0:19:36.000
<v Speaker 1>you're definitely seeing that push, But I think for a

0:19:36.040 --> 0:19:38.640
<v Speaker 1>lot of these smaller firms they're just hesitant and they're

0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:42.000
<v Speaker 1>they're playing it by ear um. You know, especially with

0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:44.479
<v Speaker 1>schools and that situation being as uneven as it is,

0:19:44.600 --> 0:19:46.320
<v Speaker 1>that also makes it really hard for you to kind

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:47.840
<v Speaker 1>of say, all right, we have to be back in

0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:51.200
<v Speaker 1>especially you know, with with folks with kids under twelve

0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:54.160
<v Speaker 1>who's kids can't even be vaccinated. That just makes everything

0:19:54.200 --> 0:19:56.680
<v Speaker 1>so much harder and just not the moment in time

0:19:56.680 --> 0:19:59.240
<v Speaker 1>that Wall Street thought it was going to be Jenny

0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:01.840
<v Speaker 1>very quickly, what's the next big name to watch for?

0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:06.000
<v Speaker 1>Which bank moves next, which trading floor moves next to

0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:10.120
<v Speaker 1>bring their their teams back. I actually think the banks,

0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:12.200
<v Speaker 1>the two banks to watch would be City Group and

0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:14.280
<v Speaker 1>Bank of America. So they're planning to bring back more

0:20:14.280 --> 0:20:16.119
<v Speaker 1>and more of their folks this month, So it'll be

0:20:16.160 --> 0:20:17.879
<v Speaker 1>kind of interesting to see how that plays out and

0:20:18.119 --> 0:20:21.000
<v Speaker 1>kind of how their employees react. Here. All right, Jenny Seraine,

0:20:21.040 --> 0:20:22.440
<v Speaker 1>we are going to have to leave it. Their finance

0:20:22.480 --> 0:20:24.920
<v Speaker 1>reporter for Bloomberg News. She joins us in the Bloomberg

0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:28.600
<v Speaker 1>Interactive Brokers studio in New York. Check out Jenny's story.

0:20:29.119 --> 0:20:31.480
<v Speaker 1>It's available at the Bloomberg terminal and of course at

0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:34.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot Com. It's called Wall Street Limps into Post

0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:38.440
<v Speaker 1>Labor Day Return Derailed by Delta ed. As Jenny said,

0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:41.080
<v Speaker 1>this was supposed to be Wall Streets Back to School Day,

0:20:41.119 --> 0:20:44.760
<v Speaker 1>it's not necessarily turning out to be. Yeah, it's all

0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:48.480
<v Speaker 1>about the psychology home in you, in your shut upstairs,

0:20:48.480 --> 0:20:51.879
<v Speaker 1>sweats downstairs, or what do you do well? You can

0:20:51.920 --> 0:20:54.160
<v Speaker 1>join by zoom in many places. But now we'll see

0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:57.480
<v Speaker 1>how long you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:20:57.520 --> 0:21:02.680
<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim's of it on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

0:21:02.920 --> 0:21:05.600
<v Speaker 1>it's likely to lose money for black Rocks clients, and

0:21:05.640 --> 0:21:09.080
<v Speaker 1>more important, will damage the national security interests of the

0:21:09.200 --> 0:21:12.359
<v Speaker 1>US and other democracies. Those are the words of legendary

0:21:12.400 --> 0:21:16.800
<v Speaker 1>investor George Soros criticizing Black Rock for investing in China

0:21:16.960 --> 0:21:19.960
<v Speaker 1>in an op ed in the Wall Street Journal today,

0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:22.840
<v Speaker 1>joining us now to talk all about it and more.

0:21:23.119 --> 0:21:25.320
<v Speaker 1>There's pretty much no better person to speak to this

0:21:25.359 --> 0:21:28.520
<v Speaker 1>than Andy Brown, editorial director of Bloomberg New Economy Forum.

0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:31.359
<v Speaker 1>Although he spent years in China. Today he is joining

0:21:31.440 --> 0:21:33.119
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from New Hampshire, and we're certainly

0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:35.280
<v Speaker 1>glad because if he were in China right now, it

0:21:35.320 --> 0:21:37.119
<v Speaker 1>would be the middle of the night. Andy, thank you

0:21:37.160 --> 0:21:39.360
<v Speaker 1>so much for taking the time and joining us on this.

0:21:39.440 --> 0:21:41.480
<v Speaker 1>What was your reaction when you saw that? What was

0:21:41.520 --> 0:21:46.640
<v Speaker 1>your reaction when you saw that editorial from George Soros? Yeah, look,

0:21:46.680 --> 0:21:50.919
<v Speaker 1>this is pretty inflammatory stuff. I mean, he's essentially accusing

0:21:52.000 --> 0:21:58.439
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street leaders of being on patriotic almost fifth columnists, investing,

0:21:59.240 --> 0:22:01.320
<v Speaker 1>as it were, in the enemy at a time when

0:22:01.359 --> 0:22:04.400
<v Speaker 1>the United States and China, in his view, are locked

0:22:04.520 --> 0:22:09.399
<v Speaker 1>in this life and death struggle for supremacy. And his

0:22:09.520 --> 0:22:11.639
<v Speaker 1>point is you've got to choose side. This is a

0:22:11.760 --> 0:22:16.280
<v Speaker 1>national um security with I mean, it's certainly you've gone

0:22:16.280 --> 0:22:20.320
<v Speaker 1>further in his criticism of people like you know, Larry

0:22:20.440 --> 0:22:25.720
<v Speaker 1>Spink and and uh and Schwartzman, and John Thornton, the

0:22:25.800 --> 0:22:32.680
<v Speaker 1>former Golden Sex senior executives, and perhaps um any any

0:22:33.359 --> 0:22:38.040
<v Speaker 1>senior public figure has before Good afternoon, Andy. I mean,

0:22:38.119 --> 0:22:42.080
<v Speaker 1>what is the concern here? Is it complete focus on

0:22:42.080 --> 0:22:47.639
<v Speaker 1>the regulatory crackdown or is it the presidency economic strategy,

0:22:47.680 --> 0:22:51.400
<v Speaker 1>which is which is largely a shift to industrialization right

0:22:51.440 --> 0:22:55.000
<v Speaker 1>away from software, away from internet. Where is the area

0:22:55.359 --> 0:22:59.960
<v Speaker 1>of concern for Soros? Well, No, I think he's looking

0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:03.120
<v Speaker 1>at this at a much higher level. I mean, in

0:23:03.160 --> 0:23:07.919
<v Speaker 1>his view, you now have to competing and incompatible systems

0:23:08.080 --> 0:23:11.720
<v Speaker 1>buying for global supremacy. And on the one hand, you

0:23:11.840 --> 0:23:15.920
<v Speaker 1>have the democratic free market system of the US, Europe

0:23:15.920 --> 0:23:18.679
<v Speaker 1>and the West more generally, and then you have China,

0:23:18.840 --> 0:23:24.160
<v Speaker 1>which in his view is moving in an authoritarian, uh

0:23:24.200 --> 0:23:29.119
<v Speaker 1>even autocratic direction and doubling down on state capitalism, and

0:23:29.200 --> 0:23:32.840
<v Speaker 1>that certainly is the way that he would interpret the

0:23:32.920 --> 0:23:37.960
<v Speaker 1>latest ructions in China. With s jimping taking on UM

0:23:38.000 --> 0:23:40.919
<v Speaker 1>the big tech champions, he would no doubt see this

0:23:41.119 --> 0:23:44.359
<v Speaker 1>as being an effort to strengthen the state and tear

0:23:44.440 --> 0:23:47.520
<v Speaker 1>down the private sector. But it's very interesting that you

0:23:47.600 --> 0:23:52.639
<v Speaker 1>now have real divergence of views within the investment community

0:23:52.800 --> 0:23:55.480
<v Speaker 1>on what the on the significance. I mean you you

0:23:55.480 --> 0:23:57.639
<v Speaker 1>have other people like Great Value is saying now's the

0:23:57.640 --> 0:24:00.359
<v Speaker 1>time to invest. Jim Thing is doing exactly the right things,

0:24:00.400 --> 0:24:03.919
<v Speaker 1>sorting out problems in the tech economy, that problems that

0:24:04.000 --> 0:24:07.760
<v Speaker 1>we all grapple with, including in the US. UM you know,

0:24:07.880 --> 0:24:10.760
<v Speaker 1>and that China and that in the sense of chigin

0:24:10.840 --> 0:24:14.360
<v Speaker 1>Pins actions should not just be supported, they are laudable.

0:24:14.359 --> 0:24:17.320
<v Speaker 1>They should be applauded well and paint us a picture

0:24:17.359 --> 0:24:21.520
<v Speaker 1>of China today, China one, where does it sit ideologically?

0:24:21.680 --> 0:24:26.680
<v Speaker 1>Where does it sit in its economic story? Well, this

0:24:26.760 --> 0:24:29.399
<v Speaker 1>is what's to play for. I mean we don't really know.

0:24:29.480 --> 0:24:32.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean Lilho who runs the Chinese economy, who came

0:24:32.480 --> 0:24:34.520
<v Speaker 1>out just the other day to saying this isn't at

0:24:34.560 --> 0:24:37.800
<v Speaker 1>all an attack on the private sector. The private sector

0:24:37.880 --> 0:24:41.800
<v Speaker 1>is responsible for six GDP and eighty percent of all

0:24:41.880 --> 0:24:47.399
<v Speaker 1>new employment. This is all about rationalizing or this is

0:24:47.440 --> 0:24:51.280
<v Speaker 1>all about getting rid of abusive in our system, leveling

0:24:51.320 --> 0:24:57.520
<v Speaker 1>the playing field, and making society more more equitable. Um.

0:24:57.560 --> 0:24:59.200
<v Speaker 1>And there are a lot of people, as they say,

0:24:59.200 --> 0:25:02.600
<v Speaker 1>including people great value, who take all this uh at

0:25:02.840 --> 0:25:07.240
<v Speaker 1>at face value? Andy, is you right? In New Economy Saturday.

0:25:07.240 --> 0:25:09.760
<v Speaker 1>What began as a regulatory takedown of Jack Ma, the

0:25:09.760 --> 0:25:12.320
<v Speaker 1>flamboyant Ali Baba co founder, it quickly grew to an

0:25:12.359 --> 0:25:15.439
<v Speaker 1>assault on tech platforms, including those like ten cents that

0:25:15.520 --> 0:25:17.760
<v Speaker 1>offer online gaming. You asked the question, is this a

0:25:17.760 --> 0:25:23.360
<v Speaker 1>new cultural revolution? Is it? Yeah? Well, you know there

0:25:23.720 --> 0:25:29.280
<v Speaker 1>is a very hard edged ideological element to all this

0:25:30.200 --> 0:25:35.480
<v Speaker 1>and what you're seeing, Ah, these really eerie, rather sinister

0:25:35.600 --> 0:25:39.280
<v Speaker 1>echoes all the cultural Revolution, both in the language and

0:25:39.400 --> 0:25:43.520
<v Speaker 1>a lot of talk now struggle. Um, there's you know

0:25:45.000 --> 0:25:49.200
<v Speaker 1>a lot of talk about rectification. You know, these these

0:25:49.240 --> 0:25:52.679
<v Speaker 1>are these are words and concepts that were very common

0:25:52.720 --> 0:25:56.399
<v Speaker 1>in the early years um, all the People's Republic and

0:25:56.440 --> 0:25:59.720
<v Speaker 1>of course during the Cultural Revolution. And then you have

0:26:00.040 --> 0:26:05.280
<v Speaker 1>this sort of very powerful uh symbolism, the cult of personality.

0:26:05.400 --> 0:26:09.520
<v Speaker 1>And I was noting that you know, Chijin pings Jen

0:26:09.600 --> 0:26:12.840
<v Speaker 1>being thought has now become a part of the school.

0:26:13.520 --> 0:26:16.520
<v Speaker 1>Everybody from age seven out all the way through university

0:26:17.119 --> 0:26:19.520
<v Speaker 1>is going to have to study see him as as

0:26:19.560 --> 0:26:22.159
<v Speaker 1>The Economist magazine pointed out, the last time hundreds of

0:26:22.160 --> 0:26:24.959
<v Speaker 1>millions of Chinese school kids had to read the thoughts

0:26:24.960 --> 0:26:28.360
<v Speaker 1>of one man Um was indeed during the male ear

0:26:28.720 --> 0:26:31.639
<v Speaker 1>during the Cultural Revolution. Andy, just in the last thirty seconds,

0:26:31.680 --> 0:26:37.720
<v Speaker 1>we have what is what is Sijin ping thought? That's

0:26:37.760 --> 0:26:40.760
<v Speaker 1>a that's that's a very good question. And not having

0:26:40.920 --> 0:26:44.399
<v Speaker 1>not having been through the syllabus, it's hard. It's hard

0:26:44.400 --> 0:26:47.359
<v Speaker 1>to answer in in in a word, um, But we

0:26:47.440 --> 0:26:50.520
<v Speaker 1>have to take this very seriously. Um. This is not

0:26:50.760 --> 0:26:55.520
<v Speaker 1>a temporary school. Something very serious has shifted um in

0:26:55.520 --> 0:26:58.560
<v Speaker 1>in China, something very profound. And investors who think that

0:26:58.600 --> 0:27:00.680
<v Speaker 1>they're going to play this as they might play any

0:27:00.720 --> 0:27:03.800
<v Speaker 1>market trend, A're gonna get quite badly. Bunt Yeah. Hence

0:27:03.840 --> 0:27:06.600
<v Speaker 1>the ed from George Sorrows in Today's Wall Street Journal.

0:27:06.640 --> 0:27:09.520
<v Speaker 1>Andy Brown, editorial director at Bloomberg New Economy, joining us

0:27:09.520 --> 0:27:11.240
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from New Hampshire. Andy, it is always

0:27:11.280 --> 0:27:13.040
<v Speaker 1>great to shot with you. Thanks so much for taking

0:27:13.040 --> 0:27:22.640
<v Speaker 1>the time. This is Bloomberg Radio. I'm bro journal. Yeah,

0:27:22.720 --> 0:27:25.240
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, non,

0:27:25.560 --> 0:27:30.560
<v Speaker 1>drive home, honey please, I'll do the riding drivel. I

0:27:30.680 --> 0:27:39.439
<v Speaker 1>want to drive all Just drive baby, good question trying.

0:27:45.880 --> 0:27:49.320
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the Globe Funk Commune. Thanks well,

0:27:49.440 --> 0:27:53.480
<v Speaker 1>dry Un on Bloomberg Radio. It is the drive to

0:27:53.480 --> 0:27:55.800
<v Speaker 1>the close on the first day of this shorten the

0:27:55.880 --> 0:27:58.280
<v Speaker 1>trading week, just over ten minutes away from the market close,

0:27:58.440 --> 0:28:00.760
<v Speaker 1>and we are seeing a little bit read across the

0:28:00.800 --> 0:28:03.000
<v Speaker 1>screen that down down by a little more than seven

0:28:03.000 --> 0:28:05.800
<v Speaker 1>tents of one percent, by three tents of one percent,

0:28:05.840 --> 0:28:08.560
<v Speaker 1>the NASDAC higher by just one tenth of one percent.

0:28:08.640 --> 0:28:10.840
<v Speaker 1>Let's get into it with Dave Dat's managing principal and

0:28:10.880 --> 0:28:15.200
<v Speaker 1>senior portfolio strategies at PEPA Pepack Private Wealth Management n

0:28:15.840 --> 0:28:18.679
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars in assets under management. David, it's great to

0:28:18.680 --> 0:28:20.359
<v Speaker 1>have you back on the show. I want to start

0:28:20.640 --> 0:28:23.720
<v Speaker 1>just broadly in today's trade. What is the message that

0:28:23.760 --> 0:28:27.240
<v Speaker 1>the market is sending here? Well, I think there are

0:28:27.320 --> 0:28:31.320
<v Speaker 1>some growth concerns here. I think we're still trading in

0:28:31.400 --> 0:28:34.119
<v Speaker 1>the wake of that week August job support that we

0:28:34.240 --> 0:28:38.200
<v Speaker 1>heard on Friday. People are digesting that Um. But what

0:28:38.360 --> 0:28:40.480
<v Speaker 1>I think is also a little off putting today is

0:28:40.880 --> 0:28:44.520
<v Speaker 1>normally when you have growth concerns, interest rates are falling.

0:28:44.800 --> 0:28:47.920
<v Speaker 1>Here today we have interest rates rising, which is a

0:28:47.960 --> 0:28:51.880
<v Speaker 1>little odd. And so that that word, that scary word

0:28:51.880 --> 0:28:57.960
<v Speaker 1>from the nineties seventies is popping up exactly where sluggish

0:28:58.040 --> 0:29:01.640
<v Speaker 1>growth and higher rates that is not a great combination.

0:29:02.160 --> 0:29:05.120
<v Speaker 1>I think it's it's premature to get to concerned. Remember

0:29:05.360 --> 0:29:08.160
<v Speaker 1>azacs at a record today SMP and now very close

0:29:08.200 --> 0:29:10.200
<v Speaker 1>to record, So let's not get carried away. But I

0:29:10.240 --> 0:29:12.920
<v Speaker 1>think that's what people are focusing on. Okay, so what

0:29:13.040 --> 0:29:14.720
<v Speaker 1>is the market? What is the signal that the bond

0:29:14.720 --> 0:29:17.600
<v Speaker 1>market is sending though with with yields moving higher. Well,

0:29:17.720 --> 0:29:21.640
<v Speaker 1>so what we saw in August was less jobs, well

0:29:21.760 --> 0:29:24.840
<v Speaker 1>less jobs than we're expected that we're actually created, but

0:29:25.080 --> 0:29:29.200
<v Speaker 1>we saw hourly wages jump sharply, much worse, about six

0:29:29.240 --> 0:29:32.520
<v Speaker 1>tenths of one percent just in the month of August alone. Um,

0:29:32.720 --> 0:29:36.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, that's about four point three percent annualized, and

0:29:36.600 --> 0:29:38.920
<v Speaker 1>and that's well above what the FT has been targeting.

0:29:39.160 --> 0:29:42.000
<v Speaker 1>And so I think there is that with of inflation

0:29:42.160 --> 0:29:48.840
<v Speaker 1>there which um was not accompanied by people rushing into

0:29:48.880 --> 0:29:51.880
<v Speaker 1>that labor force and and so I think that's very

0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:54.280
<v Speaker 1>concerning here. Of course, you're still seeing that the chip

0:29:54.320 --> 0:29:59.880
<v Speaker 1>shortage affecting the auto industry and others, terrible supply chain disruption.

0:30:00.000 --> 0:30:02.560
<v Speaker 1>Who we're just pushing prices up. So you know, on

0:30:02.680 --> 0:30:05.040
<v Speaker 1>the one hand, the FED is probably going to be

0:30:05.080 --> 0:30:07.640
<v Speaker 1>cautious here to start any kind of taper because the

0:30:07.720 --> 0:30:10.960
<v Speaker 1>job numbers are not where they want. On the other hand, uh,

0:30:11.080 --> 0:30:14.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, with wages starting to rise, Uh, they've got

0:30:14.080 --> 0:30:17.080
<v Speaker 1>to stay vigilant. And so that's that's what's perplexing the

0:30:17.120 --> 0:30:19.920
<v Speaker 1>market today, David. That seems to be the debate, you know,

0:30:20.040 --> 0:30:23.040
<v Speaker 1>yields rising. The consensus seems to be that if growth comes,

0:30:23.400 --> 0:30:26.080
<v Speaker 1>the FED ist patient does not pull the trigger early,

0:30:26.280 --> 0:30:28.480
<v Speaker 1>then yields continue to rise. At the same time, today

0:30:28.480 --> 0:30:30.560
<v Speaker 1>you have big tech out performing. So what happens to

0:30:30.600 --> 0:30:34.800
<v Speaker 1>those stocks with stretch valuations if we do get that

0:30:35.480 --> 0:30:40.480
<v Speaker 1>prophecy that forecast comes to true coming out of the pandemic. Well,

0:30:40.880 --> 0:30:43.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, so you know a lot of the stress valuations,

0:30:44.000 --> 0:30:46.680
<v Speaker 1>quite frankly, are just in those top five stocks you

0:30:46.920 --> 0:30:51.040
<v Speaker 1>make about twenty three percent of the market, and quite frankly,

0:30:51.240 --> 0:30:56.520
<v Speaker 1>the growth prospects for companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet UM,

0:30:56.800 --> 0:30:59.800
<v Speaker 1>Apple are really quite strong, so they're probably going to

0:30:59.840 --> 0:31:02.480
<v Speaker 1>be all right. But the real concern is for the

0:31:02.560 --> 0:31:06.200
<v Speaker 1>rank and file. UM, you know, your industrious, your cyclicals,

0:31:06.240 --> 0:31:12.760
<v Speaker 1>you're doing in payers, uh, those that would benefit from infrastructure, UM, payments, UM.

0:31:12.800 --> 0:31:17.240
<v Speaker 1>If you kind of if growth weekends, interest rates go up,

0:31:17.520 --> 0:31:19.920
<v Speaker 1>that's not a great combination for the rest of the market.

0:31:19.960 --> 0:31:22.560
<v Speaker 1>And that's what we're gonna have to watch very carefully. Yeah,

0:31:22.600 --> 0:31:24.120
<v Speaker 1>a lot of focus on the FED right now and

0:31:24.120 --> 0:31:26.200
<v Speaker 1>those megacat tech stocks here in the US, But this

0:31:26.200 --> 0:31:28.480
<v Speaker 1>seems to me like a really global week. Reading this morning,

0:31:28.680 --> 0:31:31.000
<v Speaker 1>a lot of focus on the ECB this Thursday, also

0:31:31.240 --> 0:31:34.360
<v Speaker 1>looking towards Australia, New Zealand, South Korea. How do you

0:31:34.480 --> 0:31:38.240
<v Speaker 1>view the global economy right now and asset prices moving forward?

0:31:38.520 --> 0:31:42.680
<v Speaker 1>Reflected of that, well, you know, in some ways we

0:31:42.840 --> 0:31:45.240
<v Speaker 1>like the global economy from an investment point of view.

0:31:45.360 --> 0:31:48.560
<v Speaker 1>Here's why, you know, is certainly in Europe the percentage

0:31:48.560 --> 0:31:51.040
<v Speaker 1>of vaccination is actually higher than many parts of the

0:31:51.120 --> 0:31:54.960
<v Speaker 1>United States. That's a big positive, while evaluations are much lower,

0:31:55.120 --> 0:31:58.400
<v Speaker 1>and of course interest rates there are are even lower

0:31:58.440 --> 0:32:01.040
<v Speaker 1>than they are here negative in many cases, and so

0:32:01.200 --> 0:32:03.360
<v Speaker 1>I think that's going to continue to drive some money

0:32:03.440 --> 0:32:06.480
<v Speaker 1>into risk assets like stocks. Now, Asia is is a

0:32:06.520 --> 0:32:10.520
<v Speaker 1>tricky situation. Of course. The Chinese stocks sold off um

0:32:10.560 --> 0:32:13.680
<v Speaker 1>because of concerns that the Chinese government was usually raising

0:32:13.720 --> 0:32:17.000
<v Speaker 1>regulations and there's you know, questions as to whether capitalism

0:32:17.040 --> 0:32:18.960
<v Speaker 1>would survive and all that kind of stuff. There were

0:32:18.960 --> 0:32:22.320
<v Speaker 1>actually kind of optimistic as to the outlook because at

0:32:22.320 --> 0:32:24.880
<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, although China talks tough, I

0:32:24.880 --> 0:32:28.040
<v Speaker 1>don't see how they become a real genuine world power

0:32:28.080 --> 0:32:31.640
<v Speaker 1>if they don't have a genuine world class uh private

0:32:31.880 --> 0:32:34.959
<v Speaker 1>uh capitalist system. So there, you know, we're seeing some

0:32:34.960 --> 0:32:38.000
<v Speaker 1>stocks move up today and they were kind of optimistic. Well,

0:32:38.080 --> 0:32:39.960
<v Speaker 1>one person who certainly are not optimistic about that is

0:32:40.000 --> 0:32:43.160
<v Speaker 1>George Soros. We talked earlier about his op ed in

0:32:43.200 --> 0:32:46.240
<v Speaker 1>today's Wall Street Journal. Uh, David, I want to talk

0:32:46.280 --> 0:32:48.920
<v Speaker 1>about the stocks that you're bullish on. Let's start with

0:32:48.960 --> 0:32:52.520
<v Speaker 1>Anheuser Bush. What's going on? Yeah, yeah, so absolutely so

0:32:52.760 --> 0:32:56.520
<v Speaker 1>here is one of the top five consumer products stocks

0:32:57.000 --> 0:32:59.800
<v Speaker 1>in the world. Um, you know, they're by far the

0:32:59.840 --> 0:33:03.160
<v Speaker 1>law just beer maker is something like you know fifteen,

0:33:03.720 --> 0:33:07.760
<v Speaker 1>they have fifteen of the top twenty brand worldwide. So

0:33:08.000 --> 0:33:10.920
<v Speaker 1>the stock was over eighty about eighty in June. Right

0:33:10.920 --> 0:33:13.920
<v Speaker 1>now it is below sixty. So you got marked down

0:33:14.360 --> 0:33:16.320
<v Speaker 1>in in in a company where you can make fun

0:33:16.360 --> 0:33:18.680
<v Speaker 1>of bud here in this country. But the factor matter

0:33:18.800 --> 0:33:22.080
<v Speaker 1>is they have the best distribution network worldwide and sometimes

0:33:22.200 --> 0:33:25.960
<v Speaker 1>that makes a difference in terms of profitability um and

0:33:25.960 --> 0:33:28.680
<v Speaker 1>and of course other things I think are temporary. There

0:33:28.760 --> 0:33:31.320
<v Speaker 1>was is a growth concern on hert Selzer, which was

0:33:31.600 --> 0:33:35.760
<v Speaker 1>proclaimed by uh Austin Beer Sam and I think that's

0:33:35.800 --> 0:33:39.000
<v Speaker 1>way on the beer stocks here. There's also some concern about,

0:33:39.120 --> 0:33:42.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, the delay in the reopening trade. Quite frankly,

0:33:42.800 --> 0:33:46.120
<v Speaker 1>you're going to consume your beer either off in at

0:33:46.160 --> 0:33:48.800
<v Speaker 1>the bar or in the homp is far more profitable

0:33:48.800 --> 0:33:51.239
<v Speaker 1>if you use the former at the bar. And so

0:33:51.320 --> 0:33:53.360
<v Speaker 1>I think you've got an opportunity to buy a world

0:33:53.400 --> 0:33:57.880
<v Speaker 1>class company about off. Of course, they owned two thirds

0:33:57.920 --> 0:34:00.480
<v Speaker 1>of Ambev in Latin America, which has just the total

0:34:00.560 --> 0:34:03.960
<v Speaker 1>lock on the beverage distribution system down there. So we

0:34:04.000 --> 0:34:07.040
<v Speaker 1>think here's a world class company on sale. Snap it up.

0:34:07.120 --> 0:34:09.640
<v Speaker 1>And if you're you're really concerned about growth, I think

0:34:10.040 --> 0:34:12.759
<v Speaker 1>a beer company is something that won't be as sensitive

0:34:12.800 --> 0:34:16.560
<v Speaker 1>to the vagaries of the GDP numbers. David, interesting to

0:34:16.560 --> 0:34:18.799
<v Speaker 1>see x On on the top tics list. Taut me

0:34:18.800 --> 0:34:22.239
<v Speaker 1>through that one. So we have a situation here is

0:34:23.239 --> 0:34:26.279
<v Speaker 1>we're all convinced and we need to go green. The

0:34:26.400 --> 0:34:31.799
<v Speaker 1>problem is investors UM are going green faster in terms

0:34:31.800 --> 0:34:35.239
<v Speaker 1>of how they're handling their portfolio than how consumers. Then

0:34:35.400 --> 0:34:37.920
<v Speaker 1>consumers can go green. So you have a situation where

0:34:38.160 --> 0:34:41.359
<v Speaker 1>you know, people like UH, people like myself are not

0:34:41.360 --> 0:34:43.200
<v Speaker 1>gonna be able to switch off the natural gas that

0:34:43.239 --> 0:34:46.240
<v Speaker 1>we heat our homes in the ensuing winters or trade

0:34:46.280 --> 0:34:49.879
<v Speaker 1>in our cars fast enough UH in order to meet

0:34:49.880 --> 0:34:52.400
<v Speaker 1>those objectives. So I think we're still going to be

0:34:52.480 --> 0:34:56.560
<v Speaker 1>needing lots of UH fossil fossil SHUEL and of course

0:34:56.760 --> 0:34:59.319
<v Speaker 1>x On, being the largest in the world, actually benefits

0:34:59.520 --> 0:35:02.799
<v Speaker 1>when UH capital is starved and taken away from the

0:35:02.800 --> 0:35:06.520
<v Speaker 1>smaller companies, and I think ultimately energy prices will go

0:35:06.719 --> 0:35:10.080
<v Speaker 1>higher in this interim. Here, Exxon, with close to six

0:35:10.120 --> 0:35:15.600
<v Speaker 1>percent dividend as I mentioned UH, totally integrated from upstream

0:35:15.640 --> 0:35:19.759
<v Speaker 1>to downstream chemical operations, is well positioned to take advantage

0:35:20.560 --> 0:35:23.719
<v Speaker 1>of this inter period when oil still has a roll. Hey, David,

0:35:23.760 --> 0:35:25.360
<v Speaker 1>we only have twenty seconds left, but I want you

0:35:25.400 --> 0:35:27.600
<v Speaker 1>to make your case for Wells Fargo, another contrary event

0:35:27.640 --> 0:35:29.960
<v Speaker 1>that was under pressure last week due to regulatory concern

0:35:30.640 --> 0:35:33.799
<v Speaker 1>Well interestingly, with bond prices going up today, one of

0:35:33.800 --> 0:35:36.880
<v Speaker 1>the few sectors that's doing well are the financials because

0:35:36.920 --> 0:35:39.800
<v Speaker 1>they benefit from higher rights rage because that governs the

0:35:39.840 --> 0:35:42.560
<v Speaker 1>price and their best known product. So we write the

0:35:42.600 --> 0:35:45.399
<v Speaker 1>banks and Wells Fargo has we think one of the

0:35:45.440 --> 0:35:50.080
<v Speaker 1>best UM franchises coast to coast, focusing on the middle market,

0:35:50.560 --> 0:35:53.160
<v Speaker 1>and I think once they can lift get that asset

0:35:53.200 --> 0:35:55.960
<v Speaker 1>cap lifted off of them, the stock could return to

0:35:55.960 --> 0:35:58.400
<v Speaker 1>where it was January two, eighteen, above sixty. All right,

0:35:58.480 --> 0:36:01.600
<v Speaker 1>David Deed's managing principle and senior portfolio strategies at Pepack

0:36:01.640 --> 0:36:03.839
<v Speaker 1>Private Wealth Management, We are going to have to leave

0:36:03.880 --> 0:36:05.360
<v Speaker 1>it there. Thank you so much for joining us on

0:36:05.400 --> 0:36:09.720
<v Speaker 1>a Bloomberg Business Week Radio Thanks for listening to Bloomberg

0:36:09.760 --> 0:36:13.440
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg

0:36:13.520 --> 0:36:15.359
<v Speaker 1>dot com, and you can also listen to our radio

0:36:15.360 --> 0:36:18.000
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0:36:18.040 --> 0:36:20.400
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