1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,480 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me, Joey p 2 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: joe Pisapia. Guess what it's time to place your bets 3 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: and of course with me to help me do it, 4 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:09,840 Speaker 1: my brothers and as Chris Farley always said, brothers don't 5 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:12,879 Speaker 1: shake hands. Brothers got a hug and then talk about 6 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: how to make some wagers on Sunday Division Round Football. 7 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:19,280 Speaker 1: And we've got two great games, two great analysts, Matthew 8 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:22,600 Speaker 1: Friedman joining us, and of course Pat Fitzmorris as always, 9 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: what fun we have on Sunday. We've got an old 10 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: school NFC nineteen nineties rivalry that is hot again and 11 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: I'm super excited about it. All the fields for my 12 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 1: child that have returned, and we've got the new look 13 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 1: AFC Juggernaut teams going against each other also, so it 14 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:43,480 Speaker 1: is going to be a wild ride. I cannot wait 15 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:47,159 Speaker 1: for these games Sunday. Everything stops at three pm Eastern, 16 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: I can tell you that, and we're gonna break them 17 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: down for you. I tell you what to expect in 18 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 1: these games, with the totals, with the spreads, and maybe 19 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: some money to be made on some outright winners. But 20 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 1: before we do, just reminder, don't forget to subscribe to 21 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros YouTube channel and comment below on this video. 22 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: Tell us who you think is going to win, because 23 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 1: when you do, you could win a free upgrade to 24 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros Premium. That's right. 25 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 2: Whether you're looking for access to exclusive picks, top rated 26 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 2: player props, or custom analysis from your betting performance, Betting 27 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 2: Pros Premium has the tools to help get cash more bets. 28 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 1: That's it, plain and simple. Don't you want to cash 29 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 1: more bets? I do, so, don't wait for a giveaway. 30 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: Sign up today at bettingpros dot com, slash upgrade and 31 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 1: start betting smarter, not harder. Or if you want to 32 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 1: play your spin the wheel a little bit, then you 33 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: can go ahead and make a comment and see if 34 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 1: you get picked. But either way, subscribe to Betting Pros 35 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: YouTube channel because we've got March Madness coverage coming, so 36 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 1: many fun things going on Baseball season opening. I can't 37 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 1: wait to start making my baseball wagers, so gentlemen, let's 38 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: kick things off here at the top AFC show Down. 39 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: These two teams met for a brief period of time. Obviously, 40 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 1: these twenty days after the damar Hamlin incident where he 41 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: went into cardiac arrest on the field. Thank goodness, he 42 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 1: is doing so much better. Now We've got the first 43 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: ever real legitimate meeting once again. Take two of Joe 44 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,079 Speaker 1: Burrow and Josh Allen, two elite quarterbacks in the league, 45 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: both teams ranked at the top eight in the NFL 46 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: and points per game, offensive yards per game, passing yards 47 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 1: per game. If this one underperforms, I'm gonna be sad, 48 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: just straight up sad. Now the stats didn't count last time, 49 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 1: but just to throw this out, Burrow had a perfect 50 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: QB rating one fifty eight point three four four fifty 51 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 1: two yards in a touchdown. The Bengals also lost their 52 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: left tackle in the last game, Jonah Williams, so that's 53 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: going to be lost there. They had some injuries too, 54 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: with Collins and Kappa. Both are week to week. We're 55 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: hoping they play. We shall see. The Bengals are zero 56 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 1: to three this year when Burrow gets sacked five more times. 57 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: But don't forget we talked about last week the Buffalo Bills. 58 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: We mentioned how they don't really go after the quarterback 59 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: all that much, and Burrow's never lost. In the month 60 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 1: of January, he has a perfect six and zero. So 61 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: I have set the stage. Matthew Friedman, here are the numbers. 62 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: Five point spread is what we're working with. Cincinnati is 63 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: the underdog going into Buffalo. This number has moved from 64 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: six forty eight and a half is the over under 65 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 1: plus one ninety. If you like the Bengals on the 66 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: money line, and I already do and I already bet 67 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: them spoiler alert. So Friedman, let's talk about these numbers. 68 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 1: What do you see here? Where are you headed for 69 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: this AFC showdown? 70 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 3: So I don't see anything really on the total, and 71 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:20,959 Speaker 3: I'll just say kind of blanket statement for this week. 72 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 3: I am very close on all of the totals that 73 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 3: are in the market, so I don't know if I'm 74 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 3: going to be betting any totals this week. The spread, however, 75 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 3: does have my attention, and you know, I gotta say, 76 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 3: I am the moron who bet this way too early. 77 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 3: There So there was a book that opened this around 78 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 3: six six and a half. It immediately got bet down 79 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 3: to three and a half. I betted at three and 80 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 3: a half and then it has steadily moved from the 81 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 3: three and a half to five five and a half, 82 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 3: where we see it in the market? Now, am I 83 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 3: thinking and betting that three and a half Early on 84 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 3: Sunday night? Was that, Okay, if this moves towards the seven, 85 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 3: there's not much of a difference from three and a 86 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 3: half to even five and a half where we see 87 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 3: this number now, just in terms of where games tend 88 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 3: to land. But if this moves down and hits three, 89 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 3: there is a massive difference between three and a half 90 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 3: and three. And at the time, I had this projected 91 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 3: at two point seventy five, and so I thought, all right, 92 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 3: I haven't projected under the key number three. I'm gonna 93 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 3: bet it now, and if it moves that's fine. The 94 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 3: reason why this was idiotic was for two reasons really. One, 95 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 3: I should have known that the market was going to 96 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 3: move away from the Bengals and towards the Bills based 97 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:38,480 Speaker 3: on the offensive line injuries of the Bengals, and like, 98 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 3: that is what people are going to talk about the 99 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 3: most this week, the offensive line injuries for the Bengals. 100 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 4: So that's first. 101 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 3: I should have anticipated that people would be focusing on 102 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 3: that and would be moving in that direction towards the Bills. 103 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 3: And then the second thing is I should have moved 104 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 3: my projections more aggressively based on those injuries. But the 105 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 3: thing is, even now accounting for some of those injuries, 106 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:01,799 Speaker 3: and let's assume that the Bills are not the Bills. 107 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 3: The Bengals are going to be without three of their starters. 108 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 3: Right tackle l Collins he's definitely out, he's on ir. 109 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 3: You have right guard Alice Kappa, who will likely be 110 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 3: out but maybe not for sure, maybe return, probably out, 111 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 3: didn't practice on Wednesday, didn't play last week with the 112 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 3: ankle injury. And then you have the fresh injury to 113 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,600 Speaker 3: left tackle Jonah Williams. People are reporting that was a 114 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:29,599 Speaker 3: dislocated knee gap. So if that's the case, highly unlikely 115 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 3: that he's playing this week. So let's assume that all 116 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 3: three of those guys are out and then building on 117 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:39,840 Speaker 3: top of that, the idea of cascading injury impact right 118 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 3: with the compounding effect of this cluster injury on the 119 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,679 Speaker 3: offensive line, so that if you have one guy who's out, 120 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:48,600 Speaker 3: it's not that big of a deal. If the guy 121 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 3: who plays next to him is also out, it's this 122 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:55,599 Speaker 3: situation of one plus one equals two point five or three. Right, 123 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 3: So with three offensive linemen out, there is an impact 124 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 3: that we would expect that is greater than just if 125 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 3: three other random players on the offense happen to be out. 126 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 3: That said, even with all of that accounted for, I 127 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 3: imagine I will continue to adjust my projection the closer 128 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 3: we get to having total confirmation that all three of 129 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:18,919 Speaker 3: these guys are out. But I'm not going to adjust 130 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 3: it all that much more. It's not as if these 131 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 3: three offensive linemen are out and I'm discounting three points 132 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 3: from the Bengals. Right We're still talking about offensive linemen. 133 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 3: It's not as if these guys are the quarterback. They 134 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 3: still have their starting center. Center is just as important 135 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 3: as left tackle when you're thinking about the continuity of 136 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 3: the offensive line. I can't discount the Bengals all that 137 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:44,919 Speaker 3: much more from where I've already discounted them. And I 138 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,559 Speaker 3: have this projected at three and a half. So let's 139 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 3: assume that this number stays at five to five and 140 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 3: a half. Maybe it gets to six. It might meet 141 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 3: some resistance there. I still see value in the Bengals, 142 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 3: and I'm probably too high on the Bengals. I will 143 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:03,599 Speaker 3: say in my power ratings, I have them just just 144 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 3: below the Bills, and you know I have this this 145 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,359 Speaker 3: trio at the top of the three AFC teams and 146 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 3: then a little bit of a tier, but I think 147 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 3: that the Bengals are in that tier now with the 148 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 3: Bills and with the Kansas City they're the number three team, 149 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 3: but I think they belong in that tier based on 150 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 3: what we've seen them do and Joe Burrow on the road. 151 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 3: Joe Burrow as an underdog, like, give me three and 152 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 3: a half points. If it's three, I'm not betting it, 153 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 3: but if it's more than a field goal, I feel 154 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 3: pretty confident that Burrow has some magic in him. So 155 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 3: three and a half is where I have this projected. 156 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 3: We see the five five and a half in the market. 157 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 3: Even if I move this to four and a half, 158 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 3: I will still be pretty desirous to be on the 159 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 3: Bengals in this spot. So this is this is where 160 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 3: I am. Josh Allen, he's the second best quarterback in 161 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 3: the league. I do think that, but we can't state 162 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 3: that as objective fact. But I feel find saying he's 163 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 3: the second best quarterback in the league. But there's not 164 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:00,679 Speaker 3: much of a difference between him and Joe Burrow. As 165 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 3: you know, the number two and number three guy. People 166 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 3: thought that Josh Allen was maybe the best quarterback entering 167 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 3: the year, but he still has a little bit of 168 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 3: that gun slinger to him where he makes too many mistakes, 169 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 3: is a little too carefree with the football, and against 170 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 3: a pretty good defense that could come back to bite him. 171 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: I think you should listen to your heart. You should 172 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: listen to what it's telling you. It's listen, it's good 173 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 1: but Bengals, but poo Bengals. See come with me, Friedman 174 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: two to one on the money line. This is how 175 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 1: you make money on this game. Forget the three ice 176 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 1: water in the veins. Joe Burrow, big game, Joe b Look, 177 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: I understand the offensive line issues are there. 178 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:36,679 Speaker 2: Now. 179 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 1: If this was a team on the Buffalo side that 180 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: was prolific at getting to the quarterback, I can understand. 181 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: But they let's less than any team in the league. 182 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 4: So why are we so worried. 183 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,839 Speaker 1: Necessarily about some of these injuries to the extent that 184 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: we should shade the Bengals too far too much? I 185 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 1: think that's a problem potentially fits How do you see 186 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 1: this working out here? Because certainly worrisome offensive line injuries 187 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: absolutely or something to pay big time attention to. But 188 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:05,680 Speaker 1: let's also pay attention to what the Buffalo Bills did 189 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: or should I say, did not do against the Miami 190 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 1: Dolphins last week. That was a beat up, worn out 191 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 1: third string quarterback team and that game went to the 192 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 1: final two minutes of the game. That is ridiculous. The 193 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills have a lot a lot of teams hang around. 194 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 1: You can't do that with Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow 195 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 1: and some of the weapons that they have. This is 196 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:25,959 Speaker 1: not the Miami Dolphins quarterback situation. This is Joe b 197 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 1: What are your thoughts? 198 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 5: Fits, Yeah, that was some sloppy finishing by the Bells 199 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 5: last week. I kind of maybe think that might serve 200 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 5: as a wake up call to them to be a 201 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 5: little more diligent about stepping on the throat and not 202 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 5: doing the Chiefs thing where they like to play with 203 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:45,679 Speaker 5: their prey before finally putting it away. So yeah, I mean, 204 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 5: I want to be with you guys, and were it 205 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 5: not for these offensive line injuries, I think I would. 206 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 4: Be there and liking the Bengals in this one. 207 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 5: And earlier in the year, when well was only a 208 00:09:58,000 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 5: few weeks ago, I think when it was a can 209 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 5: the City ats the Bengals, and like the Bengals were 210 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 5: a home dog, and I said they shouldn't be a 211 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 5: home dog to anyone. And I like the Bengals in 212 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 5: that game against Buffalo. But now with these offensive line injuries, 213 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 5: I am concerned and I'm I am confident Friedman that 214 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:18,439 Speaker 5: Alex Kappa is not going to play. I saw a 215 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 5: replay of that injury, like he took a and I'm frankly, 216 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 5: I'm surprised it's listed as an ankle injury rather than 217 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 5: a knee injury, because he took a pretty devastating side 218 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 5: impact to his lower leg, and like, I can't imagine 219 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 5: him suiting up this Sunday, So, you know, and it's 220 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:38,679 Speaker 5: too bad because just when the Bengals had consolidated all 221 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 5: of this new offensive line talent, like they got all 222 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,319 Speaker 5: these new offensive linemen, they thought it was going to 223 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:45,319 Speaker 5: be a great upgrade. And early in the season their 224 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 5: offensive line was terrible, largely because I think these guys 225 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 5: hadn't played together before. And then you know, they finally 226 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 5: got it going and it seemed like their offense. 227 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 4: Could just do no wrong. 228 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 5: Well last week after those guys left, I mean, we 229 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 5: saw different Bengals off We saw Joe Burrow average six 230 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 5: point five yards per attempt. Jamar Chase had nine catches 231 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 5: for let's see, eighty four yards in a touchdown. Most 232 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 5: of his targets were within ten yards of the line 233 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 5: of scrimmage. Like their downfield passing game just sort of disappeared. 234 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:19,319 Speaker 5: And I think that was out of necessity because they 235 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:22,559 Speaker 5: just couldn't keep the Ravens pass rush at bay with 236 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:26,439 Speaker 5: all these backup offensive linemen. And I know the Buffalo 237 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 5: pass rush is not one of the more fierce pass 238 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 5: rushes in the league. I think they were fourteenth in 239 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:35,839 Speaker 5: pressure rate on the year. Von Miller's hurt, he's done 240 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 5: for the season, but I think this is still going 241 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:41,959 Speaker 5: to be a major problem for the Bengals, and I 242 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 5: think it could meet as many as three points. 243 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 4: Like sacks are sacks are drive wreckers. 244 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 5: Like you take a sack, the chances are you're not 245 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:53,559 Speaker 5: going to get points on that drive. So yeah, I'm 246 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 5: just I'm a little worried that this turns into a 247 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 5: repeat of what we saw last year in the Divisional round, 248 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 5: where Burrow took nine sacks against the Titans and they 249 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 5: somehow survived. They won nineteen to sixteen because their defense 250 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 5: played great and they were able to score just enough 251 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:11,959 Speaker 5: to put the Titans away. And then, like Burrow got 252 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 5: secked seven more times in the Super Bowl. 253 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 4: And they almost pulled it out. So I'm worried about this. 254 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 5: Like, Buffalo scored more than thirty points in four consecutive 255 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,079 Speaker 5: games and one of those games was against the Bears. 256 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 5: Defense is terrible, but two of them were against the 257 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 5: Dolphins and one was against the Patriots. The Patriots are 258 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 5: third in defensive DVOA. The Dolphins are fifteenth, so not pushovers. 259 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 5: This Bill's offense is clicking. And yeah, like, other than 260 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 5: not being able to put away the Dolphins late last week, 261 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 5: for the most part, I mean, this Bill's offense has 262 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 5: been just terrific lately. So I don't think the Bengals 263 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:52,559 Speaker 5: can keep up with them. And I'm kind of willing 264 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 5: to lay the points here. 265 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:57,839 Speaker 1: Sorry, guys, bo don't be sorry, no need for apologies here. 266 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,719 Speaker 1: I like, different points of view is wrong now, I'm 267 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 1: just kidding. I'm kidding. I love you fits, I love 268 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 1: I like I said I think that you know, it's 269 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:09,959 Speaker 1: certainly worth acknowledging again. When Burrow was sacked was it 270 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 1: five or more times in a game? They're zero to 271 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 1: three this year, but you did mention tons of sacks 272 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 1: he took last year on that journey to the Super Bowl. 273 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 1: Still found ways to make that a w Now, one 274 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 1: of the guys who's you know, gonna be one of 275 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: the backup offensive linemen here, Jackson Carmen. This was a 276 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: player who was you know, off and on starter in 277 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 1: his rookie year, a player that played it, you know, 278 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:32,440 Speaker 1: tackle at Clemson, like you know, this was a guy 279 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 1: you know, this is not like some guy off the 280 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 1: street kind of situation. So some of the depth there 281 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:39,319 Speaker 1: might be better than we realize. Also, I keep coming 282 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 1: back to the Buffalo though, and I keep watching them 283 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: just let other teams hang around. I keep wondering why 284 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: this defense keeps having these moments, and frankly, some of 285 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: that gunslinger mentality that Freeman spoke about too with Josh 286 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,959 Speaker 1: Allen sometimes it does get him into trouble in these games. 287 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: It kind of in trouble a couple years ago when 288 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 1: he was against the Indianapolis Colts. We all remember that, 289 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 1: right when all of a sudden, fast and loose Josh 290 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 1: Allen came back and it almost costs them the game. 291 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: Sometimes I'm concerned when that version of Josh Allen shows up, 292 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 1: bad things do happen. So just to recap for everybody, 293 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 1: I'm on the money line, give me the two to one. 294 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 1: That's how you make money on this game with the Bengals. 295 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: And you have yourself a time freeman, what is your 296 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:17,719 Speaker 1: one approach to this game? If you're gonna make a 297 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: bet on it, what is it? 298 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna be taking the spread. I do think 299 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 3: that the Bills should be favored in this spot, but 300 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 3: I think Joe Burrow covers, you know, as he so 301 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 3: often does, and I will just you know, fits made 302 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 3: some great points there, a couple of rebuttal points. No 303 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 3: von Miller for the Bills. I think that gives them 304 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 3: just a little less teeth going against an injured offensive line, 305 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 3: and you know, the Bengals have a week to at 306 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 3: least play it. It's different than losing a guy in 307 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 3: the middle of the game. And Joe Burrow has gotten 308 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 3: better at getting rid of the ball faster. That has 309 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 3: brought down his average depth of target. But at least 310 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 3: he's getting rid of the ball faster and not taking 311 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 3: as many sacks. So, and I will say, you know, 312 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 3: Josh Allen going Josh Allen going against those defenses that 313 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 3: you mentioned, I think that's a little bit different than 314 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 3: going against the Bengals, who have proven to be not 315 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 3: an elite defense, but one of the defenses that can 316 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 3: kind of gameplan around the quarterbacks that they are facing. 317 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 3: And so I think with the style of defense they play, 318 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 3: they will be able to mitigate some of the explosiveness 319 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 3: that we normally see out of Josh Allen, both throwing 320 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 3: deep and taking off with runs. 321 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 1: They play with a lot of passion too, especially like 322 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 1: last year that Kansas City game too. Like this is 323 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: a defense that even if you beat them, they don't 324 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: fold up the tents and die, which I like about them. 325 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 1: And they get beat some times, but they do not disappear. So, Fitz, 326 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 1: what is your best approach to this game before we 327 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: move on to the next one. 328 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 5: All right, So I grabbed this one earlier in the week, 329 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 5: Joe when it was in four points, like Freedman, I mean, 330 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 5: you know, and I was I was happy to get 331 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 5: it at low EBB. So now I mean I've seen it, 332 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 5: like when I was looking at DraftKings today. What are 333 00:15:57,920 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 5: the lines that you guys are saying. 334 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: We have the consensus line that we had, was it 335 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 1: moved to it up to five and a half and 336 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: most five and a half? 337 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 4: Yeah it is okay, yeah this morning. 338 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: You can get in different spots, different places on betting 339 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 1: dot com. 340 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 5: Like even at the places where it's still five, I 341 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 5: think it's juiced towards the bills. So you know, at 342 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 5: five and a half, I mean it's almost close to 343 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 5: a layoff for me, Like that's getting to be. I 344 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 5: think five and a half is probably where it should be. 345 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 5: So like I am not really interested in betting the 346 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 5: Bengals at all, and uh, you know, I I would 347 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 5: take the bills, but I wish I'd like to get 348 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 5: it under five and a half. 349 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 4: Five and a half, it squeezes the value out of it. 350 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 3: One more thing, I will say, if you haven't bet 351 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 3: this yet and you are on the Bengals, I don't 352 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 3: see the rush to bet it now. I would set 353 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 3: an alert in the betting pros app for to Cincinnati 354 00:16:55,880 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 3: plus six, and once it hits six, check to see 355 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 3: the news. You know, like do we have verification that 356 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 3: these offensive linemen are out? I think that's already baked 357 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 3: into the market. But just check the news to see 358 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 3: if there's anything else that's popped up on the injury 359 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 3: report that could be driving the move. But I think 360 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 3: there's a chance that this test six, and if it does, 361 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 3: bet the six after you've checked the news. If it 362 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 3: never gets to six, bet the five and a half 363 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 3: on Sunday. 364 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: There you go, good advice. Use the app too. My goodness, 365 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 1: it's so convenient. All right, let's get to the NFC 366 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 1: Wildcard game in the evening on the East coast afternoon 367 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 1: on the west. Last time, the Cowboys literally ran out 368 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: of time when these two teams faced off last time. 369 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 1: I'll try not to dwell on that too much for 370 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 1: the sake of freedman there. Dak Prescott did not get 371 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,719 Speaker 1: a playoff in time. Bad things did happen. You'll get 372 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: you shrugged in off. It's like whatever, same old Cowboys, 373 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: doesn't matter. I'm used to it by now. I love it. 374 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: He is immune at this point. Since Week seven, these 375 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 1: two teams have been the two highest scoring in the NFL, 376 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: and that's mainly due to the fact both teams had something 377 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 1: big happened that week. The forty nine erstraight for Grisha 378 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 1: McCaffrey and Dak Prescott returned. So obviously your offenses get 379 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:07,879 Speaker 1: better when we start to add those kind of players in. 380 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:11,919 Speaker 1: There certainly an interesting coaching matchup too, Kyle Shanahan's offense 381 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,880 Speaker 1: going up against Dan Quinn's defense. These two guys worked 382 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,160 Speaker 1: together on the same staff back at the old days, 383 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: the Atlanta days, when they were giving up Super Bowls 384 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 1: to the Patriots, a simpler time. I missed those days, 385 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 1: and I'm sure everyone remembers that epic collapse. It was 386 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 1: a good time there. Also, since Brock Purty took over 387 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 1: the starting job, the forty Niners haven't really been tested 388 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: because they haven't really faced a lot of elite teams. Now, 389 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 1: Party's looked very good. Don't want to take anything away 390 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 1: from him. He has stepped up secretin in the second 391 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 1: half of that game last week against the Seahawks. But 392 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:42,919 Speaker 1: the combined record of all the teams he's faced thirty 393 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 1: five and forty nine and one. And then you add 394 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:49,200 Speaker 1: in also the wildcard of the Cowboys kicker situation, which 395 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 1: could make this game incredibly fun. Yes, they did sign 396 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: somebody else, Yes, Mayor is still theoretically the kicker again, 397 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 1: that's Brett Mayor, not our own Mike Mayor, although I 398 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: heard Mike Maher was stretching out trying to look for 399 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: a tryout just to clear his name on the internet. However, 400 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: here we are, this is the game, this is where 401 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 1: we're at now. This one was three and a half 402 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 1: just yesterday it's moved to four. Forty six and a 403 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,880 Speaker 1: half was the number that numbers moved to forty six. 404 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 1: Dallas on the money line right now is plus one 405 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 1: sixty five, so basically the same where it was. Fits. 406 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 1: Let's start first with you on this one. What is 407 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 1: your take going into this NFC matchup? 408 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 5: Well, Jill, let me drill down a little bit more 409 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 5: on your points about brock Perty not having faced great 410 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 5: competition so far. This will be the first time in 411 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 5: the six starts Perty has made for the forty nine ers, 412 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 5: and really it's been more like seven since Jimmy Garoppolo 413 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 5: got hurt early in that went over the Dolphins in 414 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 5: Week thirteen. This is the first time that Perdy will 415 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 5: have faced a defense in the top twelve of Football 416 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,679 Speaker 5: Outsiders DVOA Metric, so everyone else has been outside the 417 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 5: top twelve, and the only two opponents hees faced that 418 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 5: have been in the top half of the league were 419 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:02,400 Speaker 5: Washington and. 420 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:05,359 Speaker 4: Oh sorry, Bet at Tampa Bay. 421 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 5: And in those two games, pretty had twenty one passing 422 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 5: attempts against Tampa Bay twenty two against Washington. So he 423 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 5: was basically able to manage game manage his way through 424 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 5: those games in two contests where the forty nine ers 425 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 5: had a lot of success running the ball. So this 426 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:26,439 Speaker 5: is going to be a different challenge for him. And yes, 427 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 5: I know Friedman is going to make the point that 428 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 5: the Cowboys lost Anthony Brown and you know their secondary 429 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 5: is not as strong without him, But still they don't 430 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 5: have any real glaring weak links in that secondary, except 431 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 5: maybe when they bring in old man Xavier Roads in 432 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 5: the dime package. But like, is Brock Purty the kind 433 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 5: of quarterback who can pick on a weak link in 434 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 5: a defense? Like that's the kind of thing that Tom 435 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:58,480 Speaker 5: Brady and Aaron Rodgers are great at and maybe not coincidentally, 436 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:02,719 Speaker 5: two teams that the Cowboys of low this year, But like, 437 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,719 Speaker 5: those dudes are just great at finding the weak Lincoln 438 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:10,640 Speaker 5: coverage repeatingly, repeatedly exploiting it. I don't know if Rock 439 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 5: Purdy is that kind of a quarterback, so he might 440 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 5: have to do more than game manage his way through 441 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 5: this one. And like, I think there's a massive, massive 442 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:24,400 Speaker 5: advantage for the Cowboys here at quarterback. And by the way, 443 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 5: Dallas is ranked ahead of San Francisco and the Massy 444 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 5: Peabody Power rankings by like one point on a neutral field, 445 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 5: So I feel pretty good about laying the points or 446 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 5: taking the points here with Dallas. And I'm probably gonna 447 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 5: put a little something on the money line too. I 448 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 5: don't really see any value in the total. I think 449 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 5: that's pretty much spot on. 450 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 1: I'm kind of where you are fit, so I am 451 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 1: staying away from the total. I think it's very close. 452 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 1: I am personally haven't bet this yet. My heart keeps 453 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 1: telling me Cowboys are good for an upset here, Let's 454 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,879 Speaker 1: go with the Cowboys. But I keep coming back and 455 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 1: hearing that voice in my head where Matthew Friedman can 456 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,400 Speaker 1: talking to me earlier about well, you know, short week, 457 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 1: less time to repair, lots of travel, all the road games, 458 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 1: all this stuff. I can't shake that. So Friedman, let's 459 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 1: start there, because that's been kind of your narrative building 460 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,679 Speaker 1: with the Giants on last show and maybe that's kind 461 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 1: of the narrative you're building here with the Cowboys. So 462 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 1: how do you see this contest? 463 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:20,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I don't know if I need to 464 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 3: say it. You just said it, Joe. 465 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: I appreciate everyone's time today. Thanks for listening to the 466 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 1: show and betting pros. You can always okay, go ahead. 467 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's so I will say the total is interesting, 468 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 3: and I will get to that in a bit. But yeah, 469 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 3: Dallas just situationally, like it's it's known right, They've they're 470 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 3: already complaining about the short week. So they have the 471 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 3: short week, you know, six days going against San Francisco, 472 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 3: which has eight days. Dallas is traveling across the country 473 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 3: both from Tampa Bay to Dallas and then Dallas to 474 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 3: the West coast. So that is you know, another situational 475 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 3: deficiency that they have going for them. And then yeah, 476 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:00,040 Speaker 3: this will be out of the past six games, this 477 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,919 Speaker 3: will be their fifth on the road, and you know 478 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 3: that has a not a major, but a not insignificant 479 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 3: cumulative impact. And when we're talking about you know a 480 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,480 Speaker 3: number that is near near three, you know, between three 481 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,399 Speaker 3: and seven, stuff like that adds up. And so I 482 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 3: have this projected at four point two five, and so 483 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,399 Speaker 3: I'm not all that far off of market. And I 484 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 3: gotta say, like fits to your point about uh where 485 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 3: Rufus Peabody has the Cowboys relative to the forty nine 486 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:34,439 Speaker 3: ers and the massive Peabody rankings, Like I think that 487 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,479 Speaker 3: I understand why he has the forty nine ers kind 488 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,159 Speaker 3: of quote unquote so low. But if there is something 489 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 3: that like Rufus is slow on, it is on adjusting 490 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 3: the priors to backup quarterbacks. And I don't want to 491 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 3: get too high on brock Party because Joe you mentioned 492 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 3: it perfectly, like, yeah, he's he's played, we won't say 493 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 3: like nobody, but he has not been challenged in the 494 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:04,640 Speaker 3: way that presumably he will be challenged with this Cowboys defense. 495 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,160 Speaker 1: And a defense that has speed, a defense that gets 496 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 1: to the quarterback, and a defense that covers too. You 497 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 1: have guys like Trayvon Diggs, you know, one of the 498 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 1: better corner covers. When you have somebody like Michael Parsons 499 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 1: who can actually run with Christian McCaffrey, it's not a 500 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 1: lot of running. A lot of linebackers in the league 501 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:23,680 Speaker 1: that can catch Christian McCaffrey in a foot race. Michael 502 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:24,600 Speaker 1: Parsons might be faster. 503 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:30,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean I think I think okay with. 504 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,399 Speaker 1: The forty line. The sideline guy, man, he really is, 505 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 1: he's special talent. Parsons. 506 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 3: Parsons is not going to be covering McCaffrey, at least 507 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:40,879 Speaker 3: not all that much. It's probably going to be more 508 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 3: latent Vander USh who He's fine, but I don't think 509 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 3: he can stick with McCaffrey. But almost no one can 510 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,960 Speaker 3: stick with McCaffrey. Let me tell you, if the Cowboys 511 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 3: are putting Parsons on McCaffrey, that is not good for 512 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 3: the Cowboys. They need him rushing the passer. But the 513 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 3: forty nine ers with Purty as the primary quarterback have 514 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 3: scored over thirty points in every game but one. You know, 515 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 3: for the season. The regular season, he had eight point 516 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,880 Speaker 3: six adjusted yards per attempt. Last week thirteen point one 517 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,440 Speaker 3: adjusted yards per attempt. You know, sometimes he can be 518 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 3: a little bit careless with the ball, but he's still 519 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 3: been you know, in the intermediate and deep parts of 520 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:20,399 Speaker 3: the field. He's been better this year than Jimmy Garoppolo was. 521 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 3: And I think if we kind of adjust, like mentally, 522 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 3: if Garoppolo were in this game, I think this would 523 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 3: be a number where everyone would say, Okay, you got 524 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,359 Speaker 3: to bet the forty nine ers in this spot, or 525 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 3: at least like we wouldn't have like the automatic got 526 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 3: to bet the Cowboys in this spot that people kind 527 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,200 Speaker 3: of have here. And the drop off from Garoppolo to Purty, 528 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:44,479 Speaker 3: I mean, I have a lot of respect for what 529 00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 3: Garoppolo was able to do within the confines of this 530 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,680 Speaker 3: offense for half a decade, but it has not been 531 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 3: a significant drop off. Like, out of all of the 532 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,959 Speaker 3: quarterbacks remaining in the playoffs, Perty has been the most 533 00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,720 Speaker 3: effective in that intermediate part of the field, just in 534 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:04,879 Speaker 3: terms of completion percentage over expectation, and like that is 535 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:08,640 Speaker 3: where the Shanahan offense lives, you know, in that intermediate 536 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 3: part of the field from like five to fifteen yards. 537 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,639 Speaker 3: Like that is in part why Garoppolo was good enough 538 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,399 Speaker 3: within that offense, because he could be pretty efficient in 539 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 3: that part of the field, and like pretty I just 540 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 3: don't think it's going to be all that big of 541 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 3: a drop off. And you know Fitz mentioned it. Anthony 542 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,240 Speaker 3: Brown is out and Jordan Lewis is out. Both of 543 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,639 Speaker 3: those guys are on IR so the Cowboys are without 544 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:36,560 Speaker 3: two starting cornerbacks, and they have a very good offensive line. 545 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 3: If they are able to minimize Micah Parsons getting to 546 00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,120 Speaker 3: the quarterback. And like Parsons, he's still dealing with injuries, 547 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,480 Speaker 3: like he is not the explosive player now that he 548 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 3: was in the first half of the season. So if 549 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,399 Speaker 3: the forty nine ers can just give Party enough space 550 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 3: and if they can exploit two backup quarterbacks, I feel 551 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:58,720 Speaker 3: like they have a pretty decent chance of winning this game. 552 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 3: But that does kind of put me on the over 553 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,639 Speaker 3: a little bit. Like both of these offenses can score points. 554 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 3: I talked about what the offense has done with Perty 555 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,359 Speaker 3: at quarterback. Since Week nine, uh, you know, the bye 556 00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,159 Speaker 3: week for the Cowboys, the Cowboys have scored you know, 557 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,480 Speaker 3: a lot. They've been one of the best scoring points 558 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 3: in the league, you know, consistently, like anywhere from twenty 559 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 3: eight to forty points. And so I look at these 560 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 3: two offenses and I think, all right, I can see 561 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,960 Speaker 3: how the over hits and this is the one. This 562 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,400 Speaker 3: is the one total where I'm a little bit off 563 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 3: from the consensus right now, forty six is the number 564 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 3: that you see in the market. I haven't projected at 565 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,760 Speaker 3: forty seven point two, So like, I'm a little bit 566 00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,880 Speaker 3: high on this game. But again, these are two elite defenses. 567 00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 3: They're number one and number two, uh in defensive EPA. 568 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,120 Speaker 3: So uh, I don't think I want to go rushing 569 00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 3: to bet the over, especially when this has been an underseason. 570 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 3: Right in the regular season, the under was one fifty 571 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 3: one one nineteen and one. So given the just the 572 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,360 Speaker 3: environment this year towards the under, and given that these 573 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,080 Speaker 3: are the two best defenses or two of the best 574 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 3: defenses in the league, I probably don't want to go 575 00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 3: over either. So I'm just looking at this game, probably 576 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 3: going to stay away, Like that's just where I am 577 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,879 Speaker 3: at this point, Probably staying away. 578 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 1: Okay, I want to play Devil's advocate for a moment 579 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:17,679 Speaker 1: if I may. With something you said about brock Perty. 580 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,440 Speaker 1: You're right to a certain extent that there's no doubt 581 00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,280 Speaker 1: that Jimmy Garoppolo's injury the pass off onto Brock Purty. 582 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:28,639 Speaker 1: Purty's done a good job. He has managed the offense. 583 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,879 Speaker 1: There hasn't been an enormous drop off we can talk about. 584 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,560 Speaker 1: As Fitz and I were pointing out, the level of 585 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 1: competition maybe also playing a big role in that how 586 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 1: do you think it reacts to the Cowboys league high 587 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 1: twenty five point six quarterback pressure rate That is the 588 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 1: highest rate in the NFL of getting to the quarterback 589 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 1: pressuring a young quarterback. That has me concerned about brock Perty. 590 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 1: What do you say to that? 591 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:55,800 Speaker 3: I mean, Purty is he's raw, but what we saw 592 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 3: last week was that he actually did a decent job 593 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 3: navigating the pocket a little bit too, create some extra 594 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:06,120 Speaker 3: time and if Shanahan it's more on Shanahan than on Party. 595 00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 3: But if Shanahan can create this scheme to get the 596 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 3: ball out quickly, and if Party can do just a 597 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 3: little bit of what we saw him do last week, 598 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 3: then I think he can survive. It will be it 599 00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 3: will be tight, but I think he can survive it 600 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:22,239 Speaker 3: all right. 601 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 1: Fits What are your thoughts on not only Rock Purty 602 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:28,960 Speaker 1: under pressure literally and figuratively, but also a Cowboys team 603 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,400 Speaker 1: that I don't know what I mean. It seemed like 604 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 1: everything kind of went their way. This was the best 605 00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,479 Speaker 1: version of the Cowboys I think we've seen together as 606 00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 1: a unit all year, outside of course the kicking in 607 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. But maybe that's also something to pay attention to. Also, 608 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:44,840 Speaker 1: if you're in a close game and you can't rely, 609 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,880 Speaker 1: you're missing extra points, you're not confident making field goals. 610 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,040 Speaker 1: That changes the dynamic of a game in a big way. 611 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 1: How do all those kind of X factors enter into 612 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,360 Speaker 1: your consciousness in this one? 613 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, maybe we should be talking more about 614 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 5: the kicker, because that is not insignificant. And really I 615 00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 5: don't think Maher was seen as any sort of liability 616 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 5: until this. But maybe you know, I play golf, Joe, 617 00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 5: like I know what it's like to have the yips, 618 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 5: and Maher definitely has the yips now, so that could 619 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 5: be a problem in a close game. It's interesting what 620 00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,560 Speaker 5: you said about the Cowboys pressure rates and like they 621 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 5: are fantasts, especially now that vander ash is back, now 622 00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,200 Speaker 5: that they can just let Mike Parsons pin his ears 623 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 5: back and go after the quarterback. We saw them put 624 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 5: a lot of heat on Tom Brady last week, even 625 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 5: though Brady is like one of the quickest to get 626 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 5: rid of the ball of any quarterback in the league. 627 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:43,680 Speaker 5: And part of the reason though I think the Cowboys 628 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 5: were able. 629 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 4: To generate such that kind of pass rush pressure on Brady. 630 00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 5: There's nothing to fear with the Tampa Bay running game, 631 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 5: and obviously that's not the case with the forty nine ers. 632 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,520 Speaker 5: I mean, like then they can certainly make you pay 633 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:02,760 Speaker 5: for I don't know, over committing to trying to get 634 00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 5: pass rushers up the field when you've got you know, 635 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:12,080 Speaker 5: Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel like all these fantastic 636 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 5: weapons as runners. So that is a way that maybe 637 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,600 Speaker 5: the forty nine ers can counteract that sort of pressure 638 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,800 Speaker 5: they're going to see from Dallas. But and just I 639 00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 5: want to echo that point Friedman made, like when I 640 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 5: first saw this number, I was really pulled to the over. 641 00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 4: That was like the gut reaction. 642 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 5: But the more I dug into the numbers with these 643 00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 5: being the number one to number two teams and uh, 644 00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 5: you know EPA defensively, I think in football outsiders in 645 00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 5: Dvoa they're also one and two like these are, it 646 00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,000 Speaker 5: just made me not as interested in the over. So 647 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,040 Speaker 5: I'm really, you know, no interest in touching the total. 648 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 3: Here. One more one more closing thought here for me 649 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,120 Speaker 3: on the forty nine ers. I okay, I know that 650 00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,960 Speaker 3: dan Quinn has gotten praise the past couple of years 651 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 3: for rejuvenating this Cowboys defense. I think the success of 652 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 3: that defense has more to do with the talent on 653 00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:07,480 Speaker 3: that unit. 654 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:08,520 Speaker 1: Versus the scheme. 655 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 3: This is not really to take anything away from Dan Quinn, 656 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 3: but I don't think that he is like the in 657 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:19,760 Speaker 3: game tactician defensively that Kyle Shanahan is offensively, And like, 658 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:23,520 Speaker 3: think of the five players who are probably going to 659 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:25,880 Speaker 3: be on the field the most for the forty nine 660 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 3: ers at the skill position group, You've got McCaffrey, you 661 00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,600 Speaker 3: have fullback Kyle Yuschek, You've got George Kittle a tight end, 662 00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 3: and then you've got Brandon Ayuk and Deebo Samuel at 663 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:39,600 Speaker 3: wide receiver. That might be the most versatile five that 664 00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 3: you could put on the football field. I think Shanahan 665 00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,280 Speaker 3: is going to be able to scheme up a lot 666 00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 3: with those five players that the Cowboys defense might not 667 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,280 Speaker 3: be able to account for. And I think that is 668 00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 3: what saves brock Purty versus just brock Purty stepping. 669 00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 1: Up to the moment. So just to put a button 670 00:32:57,920 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 1: on this too, you're staying away from this game or 671 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:00,760 Speaker 1: staying away from. 672 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,960 Speaker 3: The total I'm staying away from all of it. 673 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,440 Speaker 1: Fair enough. I've I'm having a hard time with this 674 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 1: one too, because I keep in imagining this moment where 675 00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 1: you know, they're on the thirty two yard line and 676 00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:14,200 Speaker 1: it's a fourth and one for the Dallas Cowboys. Instead 677 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:15,880 Speaker 1: of kicking a field goal, they feel like they have 678 00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 1: to go for it. And those are weird, pressurized situations 679 00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:22,080 Speaker 1: to have to put a football team on the road in. Sorry, 680 00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:23,360 Speaker 1: I don't have the deference in your kicker. 681 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,680 Speaker 3: One more thing, Joe, you asked, am I saying away 682 00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,240 Speaker 3: from Yeah, I'm staying away from it, but I here 683 00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,000 Speaker 3: it comes. I'm setting the alert if this number gets 684 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,600 Speaker 3: to three. If it gets to three, I am betting 685 00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,880 Speaker 3: San Francisco. You know, I don't see it getting to three, 686 00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 3: but if it's somehow, you know, like we see it 687 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,320 Speaker 3: three and a half in the market, If it somehow 688 00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:43,760 Speaker 3: gets to three, I will be betting San Francisco. 689 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 1: Stranger things have happened, certainly as we go through all right, fits, 690 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 1: let's get your final thoughts on this. Because Friedman is 691 00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,760 Speaker 1: lying in the weeds with his app late on Saturday night, 692 00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 1: just watching waiting for things to happen. How about you? 693 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:58,480 Speaker 1: Where are you at here with this one? 694 00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:01,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna take Dallas in the points show. You 695 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:05,040 Speaker 5: know we haven't mentioned Mike McCarthy and is a Packers fan. 696 00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:09,239 Speaker 5: I'm very wary of backing Mike McCarthy teams, but you 697 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,799 Speaker 5: know I backed them against Tampa last week, like I 698 00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,400 Speaker 5: thought they were the superior team. I don't know if 699 00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:17,640 Speaker 5: they're the superior team here, but I think they're very 700 00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,880 Speaker 5: evenly matched and I like taking the points against a 701 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:25,240 Speaker 5: backup quarterback. I think maybe this is the game where 702 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,319 Speaker 5: Rock Purty gets his biggest test, and you know. 703 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:33,000 Speaker 4: We maybe have to see him, see him where he 704 00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:34,960 Speaker 4: is forced to be more than just a game manager. 705 00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,319 Speaker 1: Well, we'll find out Rock Party. Can he pass the test? 706 00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,839 Speaker 1: Who knows? That's up to the game to figure out. 707 00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,120 Speaker 1: On Sunday night, make sure you're hanging out with us 708 00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com. Check out the prop bet chee 709 00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,799 Speaker 1: cheat too for all your prop betting needs. Check out 710 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,200 Speaker 1: the app as Freedom is discussing many times a year. 711 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 1: It's fantastic. It's a great way to stay plugged into, 712 00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,440 Speaker 1: especially all busy on the weekends. We know so you 713 00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,440 Speaker 1: can make the best wagers you possibly can with the 714 00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:02,839 Speaker 1: most possible news up to date that you can get 715 00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:04,880 Speaker 1: here at bettingpros dot com, So make sure you have 716 00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 1: the app, but make sure you subscribe to our YouTube 717 00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,760 Speaker 1: channel too. Don't forget about that, because somebody, some lucky 718 00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,080 Speaker 1: commenter here on the YouTube channel is going to get 719 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,040 Speaker 1: a free upgrade to betting Pros Premium, a fantastic service, 720 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:16,799 Speaker 1: so you can just go out and get yourself at 721 00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash upgrades. So upgrade today because it's 722 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 1: important because you want to win. We want you to win. 723 00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:26,240 Speaker 1: So there's gonna be two winners and two losers Sunday 724 00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:28,360 Speaker 1: and next week we'll be back to do it all again. 725 00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:29,920 Speaker 1: But for now, that'll do it for us. But the 726 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,440 Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Matthew Friedman, Pat 727 00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:37,160 Speaker 1: fitz Morris, some Joey p. We'll see you next time, kids,