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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros podcast. We're

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Speaker 1: back at it today placing some more bets for the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five Kentucky Derby. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock,

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Speaker 1: and today I'm joined by a man who's our news

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Speaker 1: desk manager at Fantasy Pros and a featured writer and

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Speaker 1: editor here at Betting Pros. He's Luke Minaldo, and today

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Speaker 1: we're covering his top five bets for when we go

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Speaker 1: racing this weekend at Churchill Downs. Luke, thanks so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us today. How are the vibes on your end?

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Speaker 1: Just days away from the biggest horse racing weekend on

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Speaker 1: the calendar?

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Speaker 2: Oh?

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Speaker 3: I love it.

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Speaker 2: With everything else, ramping up the Kentucky Derby just adds

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Speaker 2: a whole nother level of spice to this time of year.

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Speaker 2: And even with some of the heavy favorites, with a

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Speaker 2: twenty horse race, anything can happen.

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Speaker 1: Oh my gosh. Yes, this is one of those events that,

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Speaker 1: whether you're into horse racing or not, I think everyone

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Speaker 1: catches the Kentucky Derby. It's kind of like the super

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Speaker 1: Bowl of horse racing, and it's a great event not

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Speaker 1: just for gamblers but for sports viewers and fans in general.

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Speaker 1: And just reminder to y'all after listening to this program,

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Speaker 1: make sure you check out our Kentucky Derby betting guide

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Speaker 1: with Mike so Much right here on the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: podcast feed. And let's go ahead. Let's jump into Luke's

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Speaker 1: top five bets for Saturday, starting in the win play

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Speaker 1: show market. What do you have for us, Luke?

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Speaker 3: All right?

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Speaker 2: For that, my number five pick is Publisher. Now I

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Speaker 2: know what you're thinking, he's still maiden zero for seven,

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Speaker 2: but don't let that for you. This horse has shown

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Speaker 2: up in five of his seven starts and he's only

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Speaker 2: missed the board once. That's the kind of consistency you

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Speaker 2: love in your exotics. And he's at twenty to one,

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Speaker 2: so we add a lot of value to the exotics too,

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Speaker 2: and I promise you that that number is only going

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Speaker 2: to get longer as we get closer to Saturday. And

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Speaker 2: you have the uninformed money, as I like to call it,

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Speaker 2: No one's for the most part, people are going to

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Speaker 2: shy away from a horse that's never won, and for

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Speaker 2: a good reason. There's only been three who have ever

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Speaker 2: won the Kentucky Derby as their first race. The last

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Speaker 2: one was all the way back in nineteen thirty three

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Speaker 2: a horse named Broker's Tip, and before that it was

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Speaker 2: eighteen eighty four and nineteen nineteen, so it's been a

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Speaker 2: long time since a horse has done that. But in

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Speaker 2: your exotics, I think Publisher is a sneaky way to

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Speaker 2: add a lot.

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Speaker 3: Of value to your tickets. So don't sleep on him.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Luke, let's go ahead and move to your next

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Speaker 1: bet as well. Let's stay in this win play show

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Speaker 1: market with the exogics. What else do you have for

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Speaker 1: us here?

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Speaker 2: I'm going to stay in the are you sure about

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Speaker 2: that category because you have luxer cafe, luxer cafe, and

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Speaker 2: he comes with the usual knock of the Japanese road

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Speaker 2: to the Kentucky Derby has not yet produced a winner.

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Speaker 2: The way that they are breeding and the way they

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Speaker 2: are training over on the Japanese circuit, it's only a

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Speaker 2: matter of time. He's not your typical Japanese circuit horse either.

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Speaker 2: He is the son of American Pharaoh triple Crown winner.

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Speaker 2: He was bred in Kentucky at Coolmore's Ashford Study over

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Speaker 2: there in Versai, which is also we're justified stands, So

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Speaker 2: he's at he's got that prime just really good pedigree,

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Speaker 2: and so he's making his US debut, but he's American Maid,

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Speaker 2: He's got royal bloodlines and elite connections, and he might

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Speaker 2: not get through the winner circle, but he will be

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Speaker 2: heard from and don't be surprised if he becomes the

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Speaker 2: first horse to win the Kentucky Derby taking the Japanese road.

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Speaker 1: And Luke, it seemed like last year we finally had

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Speaker 1: a Japanese horse at least show up at the Derby

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Speaker 1: place very promisedly. So is that kind of the mindset

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Speaker 1: you have is it's getting better every single year with

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Speaker 1: these Japanese horses, and this is kind of just a

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Speaker 1: continuation of.

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Speaker 2: That, definitely, And like I said, it's a combination of

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Speaker 2: that and just being out of American Pharaoh and just

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Speaker 2: his bloodline mixed with how close the Japanese circuit has gotten.

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Speaker 3: It's a really good formula for a possible first time

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Speaker 3: for everything.

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Speaker 1: Okay, awesome, And before we keep it, I did want

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Speaker 1: to remind y'all to please download the free Betting pros

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Speaker 1: on the upgrade screen. Okay, Luke, we're onto your third

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Speaker 1: favorite bet and shifting gears to the outright market. What

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Speaker 1: do you have for us here?

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Speaker 2: All right? I have kind of an oldie, but a goodie.

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Speaker 2: He's kind of flown under the radar sovereignty. You won

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Speaker 2: the Fountain, the youth ran second at the Florida Derby.

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Speaker 2: He's been in the top tier of his class since

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Speaker 2: last year into this year, and he's kind of gotten

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Speaker 2: lost in the sauce as other horses have kind of

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Speaker 2: come up and made names for themselves. But some folks

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Speaker 2: might kind of gloss over his name. And I say

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Speaker 2: he's been around too long that some of the excitement

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Speaker 2: about him is worn off. But it's a mistake to

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Speaker 2: leave him off your tickets. And if he finds another

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Speaker 2: gear on Saturday, he's fully capable of taking it home,

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Speaker 2: even from out at eighteen.

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Speaker 1: Okay, obviously we know these markets can move quite a

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Speaker 1: bit throughout the rest of the week. Are you still

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Speaker 1: expecting to find him around five to one when it

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Speaker 1: comes to race day or do we think that this

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Speaker 1: could potentially see more public money coming in on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: He could go either way, but I would imagine he

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Speaker 2: would probably get closer rather than go farther. As we

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Speaker 2: get he's not and if he does go further, he's

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Speaker 2: not going to get out of single digits. I don't

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Speaker 2: see him getting out of the single digits if you went,

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Speaker 2: if you went higher.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's go ahead. Let's move on to your second

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Speaker 1: best bet of the Kentucky Derby for twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: What do you have for is here?

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Speaker 3: Luke? All right? Here?

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Speaker 2: I have the galloping ghosts himself Sandman. Yes, he drew

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Speaker 2: posts seventeen, Yes, that's over forty four. Yes, but what

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Speaker 2: if I told you that eight of the last fourteen

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Speaker 2: Kentucky Derby winners came from thirteen or wider. All right, now,

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Speaker 2: the curse might be ready to crack, and if it does,

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Speaker 2: it might be this year.

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Speaker 3: Now he's a roan.

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Speaker 2: Only eight roans have ever won the Derby, but half

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Speaker 2: of those have come since nineteen eighty eight, and so

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Speaker 2: that's four since nineteen eighty eight, and that's four in

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Speaker 2: the previous one hundred and fourteen. So it might not

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Speaker 2: sound like a lot, but that's a difference of like

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Speaker 2: three and a half percent to like over eleven percent

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Speaker 2: of the horses double digit percentage of the horses since

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Speaker 2: nineteen eighty eight have been roans. So it's a trend

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Speaker 2: that's a little bit more. People love to bet roans

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Speaker 2: because they're striking that white You love to have that

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Speaker 2: white figure out there. It looks sharp, and they're starting

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Speaker 2: to be a sharp bet as well when it comes

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Speaker 2: to the Derby.

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Speaker 1: Okay, are you worried that with Sandman potentially becoming a

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Speaker 1: public favorite here that he could actually be a potential

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Speaker 1: overlay and there might not be much value on him

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Speaker 1: come Saturday.

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Speaker 2: That is, that is always a danger in a race

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Speaker 2: like this, But I think with as big as the

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Speaker 2: field is, he's only going to be able to go

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Speaker 2: so low, and I think he's going to carry a

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Speaker 2: lot of value into a relative value at least into Saturday.

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Speaker 2: And I'd like to go back to my previous point

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Speaker 2: about the wider horses being out there, It used to

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Speaker 2: be consensus was it was a really big negative because

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Speaker 2: you want to get back and try and get to

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Speaker 2: the front as soon as possible. But as of late,

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Speaker 2: horses have been able to kind of negate by getting

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Speaker 2: a cleaner path where all the horses jumble in the

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Speaker 2: middle and kind of beat up on each other, the

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Speaker 2: clearer path on the outside and the kind of you

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Speaker 2: they could more easily overcome the shorter trip that the

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Speaker 2: inside guys get. And so I think that's part of it,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's why you'll see seventeen get.

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Speaker 3: A winter sooner rather than later.

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Speaker 2: And Sandman's is as good of a contender out of

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Speaker 2: the seventeen spot as there's ever been.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, I've been seeing him definitely and gaining a

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Speaker 1: little bit of public steam here. We saw the New

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Speaker 1: York Yankees endorse him a little bit, so he will

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Speaker 1: certainly be someone if you're at a Kentucky Derby party

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Speaker 1: over the weekend that many folks do have a ticket for.

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Speaker 1: Before we get to the number one best bet for

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Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby, I did want to tell everyone about

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Speaker 1: all right, Luke. Now is the time Your number one

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Speaker 1: bet for the twenty twenty five Kentucky Derby is.

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Speaker 3: I'm going chalk here. I'm going with journalism now.

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Speaker 2: As good as the other horses are, this horse is

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Speaker 2: the clear cream of the crop. In this year's class.

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Speaker 2: He's fast, he's polished, and I'm not picking him to win.

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Speaker 2: I'm picking him to win by possibly links now just daylight,

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Speaker 2: he could have at least a link between him and

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Speaker 2: the field if he gets the right trip. Now, I'm

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Speaker 2: not saying that the guarantee. I'm more like, I'm more

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Speaker 2: high on him to win. But he's just one of

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Speaker 2: those horses that if he can get through this twenty

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Speaker 2: horse field and come out on top and no worse

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Speaker 2: for the wear, even with the quick two week turn

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Speaker 2: around the Pimlico, it's shorter. Usually the field that's going

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Speaker 2: to be over half, if not maybe sixty percent smaller

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Speaker 2: than this field, he should easily be able to overcome

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Speaker 2: maybe a horse that comes in doesn't run in this

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Speaker 2: and runs there.

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Speaker 3: I think he's good enough to over come that.

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Speaker 2: Which and if you can win those two, I don't

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Speaker 2: see any reason why he can't be a triple crown winner.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I love it so. In review, Luke is going

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Speaker 1: in the outright market Journalism and then also Sandman and Sovereignty,

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Speaker 1: and if you're looking for some win play show bets,

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Speaker 1: Luke's going with Luxer Cafe and publisher, Luke, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much for joining us, hanging out with us today

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Speaker 1: and handing out your best bets for the Kentucky Derby.

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Speaker 1: We greatly appreciate it. That is going to do it

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Speaker 1: for us today on the Betting Pros podcast. Be sure

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Speaker 1: to subscribe to the Bank Pros audio feed if you

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Speaker 1: haven't already. Also feel free to rate and review the program.

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Speaker 1: It helps us out a ton here and don't forget

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Speaker 1: to download the Bank Pros app and sink your sportsbooks today.

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Speaker 1: For Luke Minaldo, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take care of y'all.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you

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Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

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Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros