1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleven three to Washington 2 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundreds to San Francisco, 3 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine to the Country Series Channel one nine and 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus Appen Bloomberg dot com. 5 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning, eight thirty on Well Street. 6 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: I'm Michael McKee along with Tom Keene. Are you can 7 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: have with indicators brought to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. 8 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:32,880 Speaker 1: When it's time to change the conversation, talk with the 9 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:36,639 Speaker 1: broker dealer r I A that's ready to listen six 10 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,480 Speaker 1: two three six three eight or visit Commonwealth dot com 11 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,559 Speaker 1: to learn more. Well, the number of the morning initial 12 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: jobless claims rises by seventeen thousand to two hundred and 13 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 1: seventy four thousand from two hundred and fifty seven thousand 14 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: the week before. That's a five week high one estimation 15 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: of Washington d C. So that wouldn't have a major 16 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: effect on it. So no real special factors involved here, 17 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,839 Speaker 1: So we are just up of two thousand. Of course, 18 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 1: that still keeps us is in the range of you know, 19 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,759 Speaker 1: the historical lows Mike, we don't. We don't do horse race. 20 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess that comes into jobs tomorrow. Not 21 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: much moving the market as well. We don't do horse race. 22 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 1: But you were kind enough to ford Mr Cook in 23 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 1: his first look post Tuesday electoral cont I just went 24 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 1: back and look, I've never done this. Nineteen sixty four, 25 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 1: four hundred eighty six votes electoral College votes is what 26 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 1: LBJ got. And then I jumped forward to Nixon McGovern 27 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:43,960 Speaker 1: five twenty, four hundred and eighty six for Johnson, to 28 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 1: five d twenty for Nixon, four nine for that big 29 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 1: Reagan win, and then the even bigger win in for 30 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: Reagan five hundred twenty five. And Mr Cook has the 31 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: secretary at three hundred and four votes, way below a 32 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 1: landslide like the ones we collectively remember in our childhood. Well, 33 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: there are forty four votes he puts in the toss 34 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: up category. This is all going in to the campaign, 35 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: the general election campaign. This is what he thinks right now. 36 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: If you want to look at votes that he says 37 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 1: are are solid for the Democratic nominee a hundred and ninety, 38 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: for the Republican nominee a hundred and forty two, he 39 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: says you know there's states like Wyoming, Montana, out west 40 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 1: and the southern states, South Carolina, you know, Mississippi that 41 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 1: they're just not going to flip parties no matter who 42 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 1: is the nominee. So um Ohio, of course he puts 43 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: in the toss up category. And as we know, as 44 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: Ohio goes, so goes the nation. Really Ohio is always 45 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: pretty much voted for the winner. There is the ultimate 46 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,679 Speaker 1: swing states sort of the first look at the Derby 47 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 1: they would call Darby in England, they would I don't 48 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: know what they call in Florida. Scott Brown, Way, Scott 49 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: Brown with Raymond James uh joining us. Now, Scott, can 50 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,239 Speaker 1: you be long the market? I mean the basic theme 51 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: this morning into jobs tomorrow is with our great distortion, 52 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: things are priced to perfection? Are they really? Uh? Not necessarily? 53 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 1: I think you know, this is still kind of viewed 54 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:26,839 Speaker 1: as a sweet spot maybe for the market, and that 55 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 1: you know, the economy is still expanding. It's not tearing 56 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 1: the cover off the ball. But but you know, we 57 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 1: are improving. We're seeing flack being removed from the job market. Uh. 58 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 1: Inflation pressure is still relatively contained, so the Fed really 59 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: in no hurry to raise rates. We do expect them 60 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 1: to raise rates down the line, but um, you know 61 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 1: that backdrop I think is pretty favorable. On the other hand, 62 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 1: we still have all the same worries that we started with, 63 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 1: you know at the beginning of the year. That is, 64 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: the rest of the world is still looking pretty cloudy. 65 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,839 Speaker 1: There's some downside risk there that may be pretty substantial. 66 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 1: That that doesn't necessarily mean that the world's gonna implode, 67 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: but it does mean perhaps a bit more cautious outlook 68 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 1: for investors. So a little bit of back and forth 69 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 1: in the market, and I think that's natural. What what 70 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:21,279 Speaker 1: do you think of the economy these days? The markets 71 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: think that it's going to certainly slow down if it's 72 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: not gonna be raising interest rates anytime soon, but they 73 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: keep forecasting reasonably decent numbers. Well that's been the case 74 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: now for a while, and even the Fed has been optimistic. 75 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:36,479 Speaker 1: If you know, if you look at the dot plots, 76 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: you know, the dots quarter after quarter been drifting a 77 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 1: bit bit lower. But the Feds still, I think is 78 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 1: is very much in tightening mode. They're still committed to 79 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 1: normalizing monetary policy. Um, you're still seeing maybe a cautious environment. 80 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 1: You know, we had some soft GDP numbers for the 81 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 1: first quarter, but you look at the details and you know, 82 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 1: consumer spending it pretty well still hanging in. There was 83 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 1: the big drop in business fixed investment, and you know, 84 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 1: more than three quarters of that was the continued contraction 85 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 1: we're seeing in energy exploration, mining structures was the big, 86 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: big subtracting element in the first quarter, and that's not 87 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:17,559 Speaker 1: gonna last forever. The rest of capital spending is mixed 88 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: and still a bit soft. You've got election uncertainty. Um, 89 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 1: but at the same time, the market off and climbs 90 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: the wall of worry. We'll come back with Scott Brown 91 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 1: and talk more about the economy and the FED and 92 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: the markets. But before we take a break here, enough 93 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 1: of that silly making money and investing stuff. Um. Tampa Bay, 94 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 1: New York Islanders. Uh, you're gonna hold the Tampa Bay 95 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 1: has a two to one in lead in games. Um, 96 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: you can beat the Islanders. They have a Tampa Bay, 97 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 1: which which I think a lot of people in the 98 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: northeast of the nation for those of you worldwide, Tampa 99 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 1: Bay is where hockey isn't except they have a very 100 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 1: good hucky team. So Mr Brown is a fan. Is 101 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: he a fan? It's the Tampa Bay to put on 102 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 1: a very good show here. Yeah? Yeah, I mean so 103 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,840 Speaker 1: now you've you've you've taken the last game in overtime. 104 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 1: Where do you go from here? Well, if we take 105 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 1: this one that it looks pretty good. We'll be coming 106 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 1: back home on on Funday, So it could be a 107 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: nice present for for mom on Mother's Day. Does everybody 108 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: sit home in Tampa and watch the away games? Ah? Yeah, 109 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:32,919 Speaker 1: sure sure, Um, you know we do get we do 110 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:36,600 Speaker 1: get a lot of you know, hockey tourists coming in. 111 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: Whenever you know there's an East Coast team, certainly people 112 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: are coming down and and bidding up buying seats in 113 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: the secondary market. That's a little bit annoying. But you know, 114 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 1: the fan base here is very very strong, and then 115 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 1: they do an excellent job in in promoting the team here. 116 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: The games are really fun to go to. Scott Brown 117 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 1: is the chief economist, did Raymond James and Tampa and 118 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 1: uh Tampa Bay number one hockey fan. We should do 119 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,720 Speaker 1: that time. We should be hockey tourists. I like that. 120 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: We can do it like you go to baseball parks 121 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: around them, well country to hoeys continue with Scott Brown. 122 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: Arthur Levett rumored to be with us later as well. 123 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: Futures up six. Now, let's check in with Michael Arr 124 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: and get the latest world of national headlines. Mike Tom, 125 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: thank you very much. It's appearing more likely that it 126 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: will be the Republican Donald Trump against the Democrat Hillary 127 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 1: Clinton in the November presidential election. Yesterday, Republican John Casey 128 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 1: pulled out of the race, a day after rival Ted 129 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: Cruise did so. Trump no longer faces Republican competition. Democrat 130 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders is the only other candidates still in the race. 131 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 1: People in Britain are electing a new mayor for London today. 132 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 1: Turkeys prime minister says he will not run in the 133 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: new leadership contest of the ruling a KP party later 134 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: this month. Prime Minister i'm At Dabu Toglu said today 135 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 1: the party should be united in the convention. Toglu lost 136 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: the powers struggle with Turkey's president. New York State is 137 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 1: reaching out to uninsured members of New York's boxing community 138 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 1: in an effort to get them health insurance. Governor Andrew 139 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 1: Cuomo announced that the state's official health plan and the 140 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: New State Athletic Commission are working together to give uninsured 141 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: boxers access to health coverage and proper medical treatment. Global 142 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 1: News twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty 143 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 1: four hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty news bureaus 144 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 1: from around the world. I'm Michael Barr, Mike tom Alright, 145 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,199 Speaker 1: speaking of sports, Let check in with John stash Hour 146 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: for the land Rover Parcipani Bloomberg NBC Sports Update. All right, 147 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: thanks Mike for one night anyway, Everything went well with 148 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:46,079 Speaker 1: the Yankees, a shutout from C. C. Savafia and the bullpen. 149 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: They fielded well, turning three double plays, and they finally hit, 150 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: scoring three runs in the six seting four more in 151 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 1: the eighth to win seven nothing at Baltimore, ending a 152 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 1: six game losing streak before the Yanks won seven and 153 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: nothing the Mets one eighth to nothing over Atlanta behind 154 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: Steven Matt's and four home runs, two by Lucas Due. 155 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 1: The Mets have won six straight series the first time 156 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: in the decade NBA Playoffs. Cleveland's yet to lose up 157 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 1: to zip on Atlanta game to a blowout one. It 158 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: was seventy four to thirty eight at half time, and 159 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: the Calves ended up with twenty five made three pointers, 160 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,319 Speaker 1: which is an NBA record for any game, regular or 161 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: postseason n HL. In Pittsburgh, Penguins and Capitals to two 162 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 1: and overtime, Serry Tree three two Penguins on the Patrick 163 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 1: corn Quist game win. They're two thirty four to go 164 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 1: up three one in the series that captainally lost eighteen 165 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: games all year. They even I lost five of their 166 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:50,559 Speaker 1: last seven. Facing elimination the Penguins and now one and 167 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:53,440 Speaker 1: twenty five Islanders and Tampa Bay games for tomorrow in Brooklyn, 168 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 1: with Tampa up two one and Brian Boyle will play 169 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,320 Speaker 1: for the Lightning and avoiding suspension for his hit on 170 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: Thomas Hickey that came before Oil scored the game winning 171 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:06,440 Speaker 1: goal in Game three. Bloomberg NBC Sports Update. I'm John standing, John, 172 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 1: thanks so much. We're under criticism here, we are. You know, 173 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 1: we've been talking about things like Donald Trump and the 174 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 1: markets and the fed. Uh. Somebody has written in there 175 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 1: they're very upset with us suggesting that you and I 176 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 1: know nothing about the Minnesota Vikings. That would be true, 177 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: that that that our our our comments about the Vikings 178 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 1: draft spaces. Let us rather ignorant they were, and we 179 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: got zero help from Bryant Belski. What we do, folks, 180 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 1: within the combat of economics, finance and investment, We find 181 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 1: guests that have charming video. Singer David Harrow likes a 182 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:46,559 Speaker 1: team from Green Bay. Ryan Belsky bleeds purple. So we 183 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: were reviewing their draft choices and Mr Belski suggested they 184 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 1: should have passive management. We won't go there. Stay with 185 00:10:56,360 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 1: us Bloomberg Surveillance. The sports report was brought you by 186 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 1: Landover Parsippany. The springs Fit sales event is happening now? 187 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: Is that Landover Parsipi dot Com, Landover Above and Beyond 188 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 189 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 1: dot com, the Radio plus mobile app and on your radio. 190 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. 191 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 1: And filings for US unemployment benefits increased to a five 192 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,959 Speaker 1: week high. Jobless claims rose by seventeen thousand to two 193 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 1: hundred seventy four thousand. That was in the week ending April. 194 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,560 Speaker 1: Santa Fe said it sent a letter to Metivations board 195 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:45,560 Speaker 1: urging the company to engage in negotiations regarding the French 196 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 1: drugmakers unsolicited nine point three billion dollar takeover offer and 197 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 1: threatening to go directly to shareholders if talks don't begin. 198 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 1: Developed markets rebounding as investors took solace from a second 199 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 1: day against in oil prices, though assets and emerging economies 200 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: told the difference story I'm at to sell off in Turkey. 201 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 1: We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading 202 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: day on Bloomberg, and futures this morning are higher. Snp 203 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 1: Emny futures are up six points, Dow e many futures 204 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: of forty six, nazdach Emny futures of thirteen decks in Germany, 205 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 1: that'll change ten. Your treasury down three thirty seconds, the 206 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 1: yield one point seven eight percent. No, i'm x screwed 207 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: Oil a four point six percent or two dollars four 208 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: cents to forty five eighty two A barrel comics gold 209 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,199 Speaker 1: up nine ten percent or eleven dollars thirty cents to 210 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:30,439 Speaker 1: twelve eighty five sixty announced the euro a dollar fourteen 211 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 1: twenty eight the end one oh six point nine one 212 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 1: and Ali Baba Group's fourth quarter revenue rising thirty nine 213 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 1: percent that beat analysts estimates. After China's biggest e commerce 214 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: company drew in more users and boosted services to merchants 215 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 1: on its platforms. That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and 216 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: Mike Current, I thanks so much. It is on Wall Street. 217 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 1: The following is from Bloomberg View, opinions and commentary from 218 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg columnists. I'm Jonathan Bernstein, a columnist for Bloomberg View. 219 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 1: Can we please stop all of blue wall nonsense already? 220 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 1: This refers to the supposed near locked the Democrats have 221 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 1: on the White House based on states that Democrats have 222 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:11,439 Speaker 1: won in every election. Since no elections don't work that way, 223 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 1: there is no blue wall. The United States does not 224 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 1: have fifty one separate independent presidential elections proceeding largely independently. 225 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:20,319 Speaker 1: It has one election, and the states moved more or 226 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: less in lockstep in response to the same things. The 227 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 1: last six presidential elections. The Democrats have avoided a bad year, 228 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 1: so swing states have mostly wound up in their column. 229 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,439 Speaker 1: But if the GOP has a good year, then swing 230 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: states and even marginal Democratic ones will go Republican. Back 231 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: in Republicans were said to have an electoral college. Lack 232 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,440 Speaker 1: a run of good years have created the illusion that 233 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 1: all the swing States were solidly on their side. All 234 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 1: it took was one recession to expose that locked as phony. 235 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,959 Speaker 1: The Democratic blue wall now is just as phony. I'm 236 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 1: Jonathan Bernstein. For more of you, please go to Bloomberg 237 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 1: View dot com or view go on the Bloomberg terminal. 238 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 1: This has been Bloomberg View and Bloomberview commentaries can be 239 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 1: here hourly weekdays. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Futures up eleven, up six. 240 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 1: Now they give them back a little bit. I'm gonna 241 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: call it the churn to the market. Gold up eleven 242 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,839 Speaker 1: dollars after that ugly day yesterday, volatility in gold. The 243 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 1: yen was one oh seven. We're now through the one 244 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 1: oh six ninety three slightly stronger Japanese yen this morning. 245 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg surveillance, we're boutch of by national reality thirty percent 246 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 1: returns on cash in rented real estate. Find them and 247 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: an r I a dot net. Michael, we are talking 248 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 1: with Scott Browne's chief economist Statu Raymond James down in 249 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 1: Tampa and from uh From Tampa perspective looking north at 250 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 1: the at the rest of US, is it. Does the 251 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: economy seem stronger? Does inflation seem higher, uh when when 252 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: you're not in New York or specifically in C Street 253 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: in Washington. The reason I asked is, we've got enormous 254 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 1: amount of Fed speak uh lately, and we have all 255 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: these central bank bank presidents from the regional banks suggesting 256 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 1: that maybe we want to raise interest rates in December 257 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 1: and that things are um stronger than they appear. And 258 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 1: that doesn't seem to be what we get out of 259 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 1: Janet yelling and the folks on the Federal Reserve Board. 260 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 1: And I'm just wondering if there's something that you see 261 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: out in the country that they don't see in the 262 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 1: nation's capital. Well, I think we're still seeing. Uh. It's 263 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: that there is still a lot of of slack in 264 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 1: the job market. We're not seeing wages getting bit up 265 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 1: as we normally would uh in a strong job market. Uh. 266 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 1: You know, bear in mind, we had a lot of 267 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 1: people moving to the sidelines during the recession and maybe 268 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 1: have given up looking for a job. We've got very 269 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 1: low unemployment rates for college educated workers. You're seeing you know, 270 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: those with high school degrees or even you know, high 271 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: school dropouts. Those rates are still relatively high, but they're 272 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 1: coming down pretty rapidly and eventually we should see that 273 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: that wage growth start to pick up. Now, this is 274 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: gonna be a big problem, might think for for a 275 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 1: lot of firms, And in that we're seeing it just 276 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 1: a general trend of slower productivity growth, not just over 277 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 1: the last year, but over the last five years, and 278 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 1: not just in the US. And what this means is that, 279 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 1: you know, uh, these wage pressures are becoming much more meaningful. 280 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 1: You know, if wages are going up three percent and 281 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 1: productivity is going on three percent, there's really no inflationary 282 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 1: impact there at all. But if we just start to 283 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 1: go up three and a half four percent and productivity 284 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: growth is still lingering at a half a percent, then 285 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: that either gets passed through to higher inflation or it's 286 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 1: going to eat into corporate profits. And I think we're 287 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: seeing a lot of evidence, at least in the first quarter, 288 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 1: that that that squeeze on profits has been more pronounced. Well, 289 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: the the profit question is an issue. A lot of 290 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: people saying the fact that we've had four quarters now 291 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: declining profits, profit recession is underway, and that usually signals 292 00:16:56,680 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 1: a downturn, and that's the typical and you know, you 293 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 1: can back out specific sectors. Obviously, the the energy side 294 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 1: of the equation has been been pretty poor. Uh. Normally 295 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 1: we see a lot of benefits for for other firms 296 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 1: that depend on energy, but maybe not so much this case. 297 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 1: Uh So the US is less reliant on imported oil. 298 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,640 Speaker 1: So in anyways we're not going to benefit as much 299 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,399 Speaker 1: as we might have benefited. You know, say if this 300 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 1: you know the correction and energy prices had happened twenty 301 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 1: years ago. But we do know that that energy contraction 302 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,399 Speaker 1: is not gonna last forever, and that means, uh, you 303 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:34,919 Speaker 1: know that hit to profits is going to go away, 304 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: and you know there's some scope for for general improvement. 305 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 1: I think within that optimism has to be a turn 306 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: in productivity. How does that occur? Well, that's a good question. 307 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: I think we really don't quite understand why productivity growth 308 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: has slowed down. Um, it could be a bit of 309 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 1: a measurement issue. Uh, it does seem to be related 310 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 1: to this weak capital thing that we had during the 311 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 1: downturn and or part of the recession, and so there's 312 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 1: a less productivity boosting capital out there. Scott, you're too modest. 313 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,479 Speaker 1: I'm gonna interrupt you. Scott Brown is one of our 314 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: most a modest guests. He had the privilege of doing 315 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:16,680 Speaker 1: statistics with a guy named Angle and Granger. It's San Diego. 316 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 1: All you need to know, folks, that that's worshipping at 317 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 1: the altar of smart Scott Brown. When we look at productivity, capital, labor, 318 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: total factor, productivity with your true expertise out of San Diego, 319 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 1: can we even pretend to measure our efficiency? Well, obviously 320 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 1: they're they're going to be measurement issues. And anybody who's 321 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 1: had any background in the hard sciences, no, when you 322 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 1: start multiplying and dividing statistical estimates, the uncertainty just kind 323 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 1: of explodes. And that's what's the case with productivity. There's 324 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 1: a measure of output, there's statistical uncertainty there. You divide 325 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 1: that by a price index and there's something going to 326 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,199 Speaker 1: be an uncertainty than that, and then need divide that 327 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: by hours work and there's uncertainty that measurement there. So 328 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: the numbers will bounce around from quarter to quarter. The 329 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 1: underlying trend here is relatively low. But in terms of forecasting, 330 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 1: you know, the economic forecasting is very difficult if you 331 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: look a year out, if you try to look ten 332 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,120 Speaker 1: twenty years out, which is what really matters, or things 333 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: like how are you going to fund the budget deficit? 334 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 1: Productivity really does matter a lot, and and it's really 335 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 1: difficult to forecast anything that that far out. We do 336 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 1: know that they're gonna be huge advances and things like robotics, 337 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,360 Speaker 1: artificial intelligence. You know, you've got self driving cars, self 338 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: driving trucks, even, uh, major advances in medico and care 339 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 1: and some some things that we we can't even imagine 340 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 1: right now for the next ten twenty years. So you know, 341 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:43,719 Speaker 1: there's some hope that productivity growth will be able to increase. Uh. 342 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 1: And I think that really matters a lot in terms 343 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:47,760 Speaker 1: of of things like how to fund social security and 344 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: medicare Have you gleaned in your distance from the evil 345 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: Empire of New York or Washington they pick up in 346 00:19:56,840 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 1: g d P. Are we still waiting indications of two 347 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: and a half percent plus growth? Well, I think you know, 348 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,240 Speaker 1: there's a lot of criticism about the last few years 349 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,919 Speaker 1: as being subpar, and that's in comparison to the growth 350 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 1: that we had in the seventies and eighties. But remember 351 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,439 Speaker 1: we had women coming into the workforce in much greater numbers. 352 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: So labor force growth was a lot higher in the seventies, eighties, 353 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:24,440 Speaker 1: and even in the into the nineties. That labor force 354 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 1: participation with more women coming in has already played out, 355 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 1: and now we're at the end of it where the 356 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: baby room generation is starting to retire, so participation rate 357 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 1: is going to be going down. You're looking at probably 358 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 1: the job growth in the order of a half a 359 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 1: percent per year over the next ten years. That'll be 360 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: the trend growth rather than one percent um. So that 361 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,120 Speaker 1: means that productivity is going to be even more important. 362 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,199 Speaker 1: Can the markets live with that or is everybody going 363 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 1: to have a heart attack if we have those kind 364 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 1: of numbers. I think, you know, there's gonna have to 365 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,399 Speaker 1: be maybe some some check on the degree of optimism. 366 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 1: I mean, you can be you know, optimistically you know 367 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: in your outlook going forward, but not quite ecstatic. Um, 368 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,359 Speaker 1: you don't really expect to see any boom where GDP 369 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:08,880 Speaker 1: growth is going to be three and a half four 370 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 1: percent over you know, some period of time. It's just 371 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,239 Speaker 1: just seems incredibly unlikely. And let's you do get that 372 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: substantial pickup and productivity growth, that's gonna be the key. 373 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: Scott Brown, thank you so much with Raymond James. Nice 374 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: briefing there, Mike, what will you look for tomorrow at 375 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: thirty What's what's on your mind? Well, and for once 376 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 1: the headline number because we normally look underneath it, but 377 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 1: everybody wants to know if the momentum can continue. And 378 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 1: then you look at the unemployment rate and with those 379 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 1: surveys four I think it speaks volumes some interesting uh 380 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: you know, debate about whether or not the FED is 381 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 1: looking at the correct kind of numbers or wage growth. 382 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 1: But uh, we just want to see if if the 383 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,239 Speaker 1: trend continue, because it's all these FED people speaking this 384 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 1: week are saying, if we get the numbers we expect 385 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 1: year a year ago, the unemployment right it was five 386 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: point four percent, if we go back to four point 387 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 1: nine I don't know, that's point five divided by five 388 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 1: point four eight improvement. That's awfully good. Better than Scott 389 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 1: was just saying, yeah, awfully, awfully good. Certain lightning Islanders tonight, 390 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:19,200 Speaker 1: we'll see. Yeah. Well, it's a beautiful time if you're 391 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 1: following hockey right now. Coming up, we've got so much 392 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: to talk about with Arthur Levitt, including our annual surveillance 393 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,120 Speaker 1: Stryper's review Bloomberg Surveillance